WEBVTT - This file has cues. 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.200 you listen to strictly business 00:00:02.200 --> 00:00:06.300 podcast with Lindsay Williams haven't 00:00:06.300 --> 00:00:07.500 spoken to my next guest 00:00:07.500 --> 00:00:09.900 since around about early to 00:00:09.900 --> 00:00:11.300 mid-february I think it was 00:00:11.300 --> 00:00:12.400 and he's been very vocal 00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:14.700 on social media about the 00:00:14.700 --> 00:00:16.400 current situation when it comes 00:00:16.400 --> 00:00:19.100 to covid-19 coronavirus and to 00:00:19.100 --> 00:00:20.200 the way the two governments 00:00:20.200 --> 00:00:23.200 and people are treating this 00:00:23.200 --> 00:00:25.300 particular pandemic has it's called 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:26.400 his name is Russell Lambert 00:00:26.400 --> 00:00:28.000 is the founder of ATM 00:00:28.000 --> 00:00:31.100 macro advisors Russell been 00:00:31.100 --> 00:00:33.200 very worried about this since 00:00:33.200 --> 00:00:33.900 you got a bit of 00:00:33.900 --> 00:00:34.500 a bee in your bonnet 00:00:34.500 --> 00:00:36.500 the lens is good to 00:00:36.500 --> 00:00:37.300 be with you again I 00:00:37.300 --> 00:00:39.100 think that we've taken a 00:00:39.100 --> 00:00:41.400 very very radical course of 00:00:41.400 --> 00:00:44.000 action you know global lockdowns 00:00:44.000 --> 00:00:45.300 and particularly the kind that 00:00:45.300 --> 00:00:46.500 we experiencing in South Africa 00:00:46.500 --> 00:00:48.500 which is extremely draconian I 00:00:48.500 --> 00:00:50.400 just think it is a 00:00:50.400 --> 00:00:53.400 radical treatment for a 00:00:53.400 --> 00:00:55.900 problem that's clearly clearly significant 00:00:55.900 --> 00:00:57.500 I think I think the 00:00:57.500 --> 00:00:58.500 more data that comes out 00:00:58.500 --> 00:01:00.200 weird getting a better no 00:01:00.200 --> 00:01:01.700 on on the scope and 00:01:01.700 --> 00:01:04.100 scale of wood covid-19 is 00:01:04.100 --> 00:01:05.200 and I think the good 00:01:05.200 --> 00:01:07.200 news is that while it's 00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:09.500 clearly nasty it's it's not 00:01:09.500 --> 00:01:11.300 as it's not as bad 00:01:11.300 --> 00:01:13.200 as as a regional affairs 00:01:13.200 --> 00:01:14.400 you know let us to 00:01:14.400 --> 00:01:16.400 believe and I think that 00:01:16.400 --> 00:01:19.200 that even if you might 00:01:19.200 --> 00:01:22.400 justify early lockdowns as 00:01:22.400 --> 00:01:24.100 as a precautionary approach I 00:01:24.100 --> 00:01:25.900 think we've got sufficient evidence 00:01:25.900 --> 00:01:27.900 now to to suggest that 00:01:27.900 --> 00:01:30.500 that they can and must 00:01:30.500 --> 00:01:32.600 start being lifted very very 00:01:32.600 --> 00:01:33.600 quickly because I think that 00:01:33.600 --> 00:01:35.000 we are starting to create 00:01:35.000 --> 00:01:38.000 unimaginable unintended 00:01:38.000 --> 00:01:41.000 consequences from the macroeconomic 00:01:41.000 --> 00:01:42.900 Outlook calamity that's that's now 00:01:42.900 --> 00:01:44.700 emerging and so that really 00:01:44.700 --> 00:01:46.000 is my is my position 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:47.700 I think that that we 00:01:47.700 --> 00:01:48.900 need we need to continue 00:01:48.900 --> 00:01:52.300 with the sensible disease risk 00:01:52.300 --> 00:01:54.100 management and have a much 00:01:54.100 --> 00:01:55.300 better idea of who the 00:01:55.300 --> 00:01:57.900 high-risk group is now given 00:01:57.900 --> 00:01:58.700 the date that we see 00:01:58.700 --> 00:02:00.800 we don't know everything aspirus 00:02:00.800 --> 00:02:02.200 I Grant you that we 00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:03.200 certainly have a much clearer 00:02:03.200 --> 00:02:04.500 picture that the picture that's 00:02:04.500 --> 00:02:05.900 that's far less clear is 00:02:05.900 --> 00:02:07.900 just how bad is locked 00:02:07.900 --> 00:02:08.600 down to going to get 00:02:08.600 --> 00:02:11.100 for not just regular you 00:02:11.100 --> 00:02:13.600 know Employment and income statistics 00:02:13.600 --> 00:02:15.900 but who will quality in 00:02:15.900 --> 00:02:17.200 a 4-foot for poor people 00:02:17.200 --> 00:02:19.100 particularly in South Africa who 00:02:19.100 --> 00:02:21.500 are I think coming to 00:02:21.500 --> 00:02:23.200 a point of real desperation 00:02:23.200 --> 00:02:24.600 now and I would like 00:02:24.600 --> 00:02:26.700 to see much more proactive 00:02:26.700 --> 00:02:28.500 opening up again and the 00:02:28.500 --> 00:02:30.800 sensible so Dave risk management 00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:32.500 protocols so so that's that's 00:02:32.500 --> 00:02:33.200 the Bee that I've got 00:02:33.200 --> 00:02:34.100 in my bonnet I think 00:02:34.100 --> 00:02:35.100 we doing some real damage 00:02:35.100 --> 00:02:36.500 as I think we are 00:02:36.500 --> 00:02:37.300 I mean what you're doing 00:02:37.300 --> 00:02:38.400 is sensually is playing the 00:02:38.400 --> 00:02:41.100 macro-environment the macroeconomic environment and 00:02:41.100 --> 00:02:44.200 economic futures a vs human 00:02:44.200 --> 00:02:45.300 life now how do you 00:02:45.300 --> 00:02:46.600 do that do accept them 00:02:46.600 --> 00:02:48.500 that if we do completely 00:02:48.500 --> 00:02:50.900 abandon the lockdown scenario then 00:02:50.900 --> 00:02:51.500 there is going to be 00:02:51.500 --> 00:02:52.900 some Collateral Damage we just 00:02:52.900 --> 00:02:53.500 have to live with it 00:02:53.500 --> 00:02:54.500 or rather die but that 00:02:54.500 --> 00:02:56.600 I think this is like 00:02:56.600 --> 00:02:57.800 Lindsay I don't think it's 00:02:57.800 --> 00:02:59.600 economy vs life I think 00:02:59.900 --> 00:03:02.500 when you have dramatic lockdowns 00:03:02.500 --> 00:03:03.500 like with seeing and you 00:03:03.500 --> 00:03:07.200 trust people into joblessness you 00:03:07.200 --> 00:03:09.000 trust them into hangar 22 00:03:09.000 --> 00:03:10.300 in the west coast is 00:03:10.300 --> 00:03:14.200 severe malnutrition and poverty you 00:03:14.200 --> 00:03:18.000 talking real mortality based 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:19.500 problems here you're talking about 00:03:19.500 --> 00:03:22.100 increased risk of tuberculosis be 00:03:22.100 --> 00:03:24.200 talking about significantly increased risk 00:03:24.200 --> 00:03:25.900 of all the kinds of 00:03:25.900 --> 00:03:27.600 diseases that are associated with 00:03:27.600 --> 00:03:29.900 poverty higher child mortality higher 00:03:29.900 --> 00:03:32.500 infant mortality so I I 00:03:32.500 --> 00:03:34.400 don't accept that it's it's 00:03:34.400 --> 00:03:36.300 a sort of taking Collateral 00:03:36.300 --> 00:03:38.800 Damage on the tintype situation 00:03:38.800 --> 00:03:41.100 I think we're creating tremendous 00:03:41.100 --> 00:03:44.000 Collateral Damage and I think 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:45.600 that the evidence that we 00:03:45.600 --> 00:03:48.300 have up until now suggested 00:03:48.300 --> 00:03:50.700 that the trade-off is between 00:03:50.700 --> 00:03:54.000 very old very sick people 00:03:54.000 --> 00:03:55.500 by and large of the 00:03:55.500 --> 00:03:58.600 overwhelmingly vs you 00:03:58.600 --> 00:03:59.700 know I think many many 00:03:59.800 --> 00:04:02.400 probably you know two orders 00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:05.000 of magnitude more very very 00:04:05.000 --> 00:04:08.000 vulnerable young people now who 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:09.100 have to have their their 00:04:09.100 --> 00:04:10.200 their whole lives ahead of 00:04:10.200 --> 00:04:11.200 them I think I think 00:04:11.200 --> 00:04:12.500 we're making a very very 00:04:12.500 --> 00:04:15.300 risky and ill-advised trade off 00:04:15.300 --> 00:04:17.000 here so I think it's 00:04:17.000 --> 00:04:18.600 like slides vs light as 00:04:18.600 --> 00:04:19.700 I say and I think 00:04:19.700 --> 00:04:22.400 that policymakers probably haven't fully 00:04:22.400 --> 00:04:25.100 thought through what the risks 00:04:25.100 --> 00:04:26.800 that are now creating through 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:29.600 unintended consequences and answer now 00:04:29.600 --> 00:04:30.500 now no one is on 00:04:30.500 --> 00:04:31.800 this incident and no one 00:04:31.800 --> 00:04:33.400 is perfectly present and so 00:04:33.400 --> 00:04:34.500 I would say that the 00:04:34.500 --> 00:04:37.100 risk management principle is not 00:04:37.100 --> 00:04:39.700 necessarily to make enough for 00:04:39.700 --> 00:04:41.000 a single policy maker to 00:04:41.000 --> 00:04:43.000 make the perfect Choice and 00:04:43.000 --> 00:04:45.100 the perfect decision I think 00:04:45.100 --> 00:04:46.900 that the principal here is 00:04:46.900 --> 00:04:50.900 allowed for decentralizes much decentralized 00:04:50.900 --> 00:04:53.800 risk management possible allow people 00:04:53.800 --> 00:04:55.100 to work allow them to 00:04:55.100 --> 00:04:56.500 work safely allow them to 00:04:56.500 --> 00:04:57.600 manage their risk of catching 00:04:57.600 --> 00:04:59.300 the virus to treating the 00:04:59.300 --> 00:05:01.500 virus still earning a livelihood 00:05:01.500 --> 00:05:02.900 to put food on the 00:05:02.900 --> 00:05:04.900 table for their families everyone 00:05:04.900 --> 00:05:07.100 faces a different stack of 00:05:07.100 --> 00:05:08.800 risks and in this equation 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:11.000 everyone is extremely different all 00:05:11.000 --> 00:05:13.200 regions of different groups of 00:05:13.200 --> 00:05:14.800 different stuff so I think 00:05:14.800 --> 00:05:15.900 that that the principal here 00:05:15.900 --> 00:05:17.600 is to devolve risk management 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:18.700 back down to the local 00:05:18.700 --> 00:05:20.700 and business and family and 00:05:20.700 --> 00:05:22.500 individual level to cool to 00:05:22.500 --> 00:05:23.500 do that the wrestler so 00:05:23.500 --> 00:05:24.600 that's when I grew up 00:05:24.600 --> 00:05:26.000 in in England today was 00:05:26.000 --> 00:05:27.500 educated at the state school 00:05:27.500 --> 00:05:29.200 they would be a class 00:05:29.200 --> 00:05:30.600 of between 30 and 40 00:05:30.600 --> 00:05:32.400 kids and they be little 00:05:32.400 --> 00:05:34.500 Lindsay not particularly doing that 00:05:34.500 --> 00:05:35.900 world and Little Russell doing 00:05:35.900 --> 00:05:37.800 extremely well but unfortunately they 00:05:37.800 --> 00:05:39.200 couldn't say Russell you're such 00:05:39.200 --> 00:05:40.100 a you're such a brat 00:05:40.100 --> 00:05:41.800 champ we going to tailor 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:43.500 our education system towards you 00:05:43.500 --> 00:05:44.700 and Lindsay you're a dunce 00:05:44.700 --> 00:05:46.200 did we gonna tell if 00:05:46.200 --> 00:05:48.300 a half-hour system differently than 00:05:48.300 --> 00:05:49.400 we would with with with 00:05:49.400 --> 00:05:50.100 Russel if you see what 00:05:50.100 --> 00:05:50.600 he meant he has to 00:05:50.600 --> 00:05:51.700 be able to put a 00:05:51.700 --> 00:05:53.500 blanket approach and just like 00:05:53.500 --> 00:05:54.200 that has to be I 00:05:54.200 --> 00:05:56.000 suppose a blanket approach when 00:05:56.000 --> 00:05:57.500 it comes to this this 00:05:57.500 --> 00:05:59.000 virus until we learn more 00:05:59.000 --> 00:06:00.900 about it I disagree I 00:06:00.900 --> 00:06:02.400 mean I think that's what 00:06:02.400 --> 00:06:03.700 we're actually learning is that 00:06:03.700 --> 00:06:05.900 is that complex risk management 00:06:05.900 --> 00:06:09.100 requires anything but a blanket 00:06:09.100 --> 00:06:10.300 approach and to the extent 00:06:10.300 --> 00:06:13.200 that you or your analogy 00:06:13.200 --> 00:06:15.000 is that all applicable to 00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:16.900 the situation it shows the 00:06:16.900 --> 00:06:19.200 shows the weaknesses of public 00:06:19.200 --> 00:06:20.600 schooling in it doesn't show 00:06:20.600 --> 00:06:22.000 strength of public schooling that 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:24.400 shows that public schools often 00:06:24.400 --> 00:06:26.000 did it wrong that they 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:27.800 apply you know the same 00:06:27.800 --> 00:06:28.900 approach to the to the 00:06:28.900 --> 00:06:29.600 wrong people to one of 00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:31.100 the reasons why private schooling 00:06:31.100 --> 00:06:32.600 and homeschooling is is is 00:06:32.600 --> 00:06:34.100 so much more popular for 00:06:34.100 --> 00:06:35.800 District Lindsay so if this 00:06:35.800 --> 00:06:36.900 was 45 years ago and 00:06:36.900 --> 00:06:37.700 I do agree with you 00:06:37.700 --> 00:06:39.600 but I agree that the 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:41.700 education system When I Grow 00:06:41.700 --> 00:06:43.700 Up was completely inadequate because 00:06:43.700 --> 00:06:45.600 people weren't guided towards the 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:46.700 skills that they have they 00:06:46.700 --> 00:06:48.200 weren't they weren't tested people 00:06:48.200 --> 00:06:49.200 didn't pull me aside in 00:06:49.200 --> 00:06:50.300 sale in zero-g quite good 00:06:50.300 --> 00:06:51.300 at this but you're absolutely 00:06:51.300 --> 00:06:53.300 crap at this but anyway 00:06:53.300 --> 00:06:54.500 I'm going I'm just using 00:06:54.500 --> 00:06:56.100 the analogy and I don't 00:06:56.100 --> 00:06:57.900 see how the government can 00:06:57.900 --> 00:06:59.000 I get your point and 00:06:59.000 --> 00:06:59.500 you and I and I 00:06:59.500 --> 00:07:01.300 get coming from III as 00:07:01.300 --> 00:07:02.400 a staff stated my position 00:07:02.400 --> 00:07:03.900 I think I think what 00:07:03.900 --> 00:07:05.400 we're seeing is that you 00:07:05.400 --> 00:07:06.600 know a farmer in the 00:07:06.600 --> 00:07:08.600 Karoo and a street trader 00:07:08.600 --> 00:07:11.600 in Soweto and you 00:07:11.600 --> 00:07:12.900 know the Rural Eastern Cape 00:07:12.900 --> 00:07:14.100 weather in the Cape Town 00:07:14.100 --> 00:07:17.900 sea point middle-class person these 00:07:17.900 --> 00:07:20.100 people all face very very 00:07:20.100 --> 00:07:22.800 different realities very very different 00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:24.500 risks some of them are 00:07:24.500 --> 00:07:26.600 at risk of dying from 00:07:26.600 --> 00:07:28.400 this virus because they're the 00:07:28.400 --> 00:07:29.900 Hips very old with with 00:07:29.900 --> 00:07:32.400 their significant other illnesses some 00:07:32.400 --> 00:07:33.400 of them are Young and 00:07:33.400 --> 00:07:35.500 Healthy and but Pro and 00:07:35.500 --> 00:07:36.700 they need to get to 00:07:36.700 --> 00:07:37.700 work and I need to 00:07:37.700 --> 00:07:38.800 to be able to earn 00:07:38.800 --> 00:07:40.500 income for their families everyone 00:07:40.500 --> 00:07:43.200 faces radically different choice sit 00:07:43.200 --> 00:07:44.200 here and I and I 00:07:44.200 --> 00:07:46.300 just think that blanket policy 00:07:46.300 --> 00:07:48.000 for 60 million people of 00:07:48.000 --> 00:07:49.800 300 million people of 1.3 00:07:49.800 --> 00:07:51.500 billion people I mean it 00:07:51.500 --> 00:07:52.600 just doesn't fly as a 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:54.800 real world risk management strategy 00:07:54.800 --> 00:07:55.800 and and I just hope 00:07:55.800 --> 00:07:57.800 I mean I'm pessimistic about 00:07:57.800 --> 00:07:59.000 this but I hope that 00:07:59.700 --> 00:08:01.000 the lessons we learn from 00:08:01.000 --> 00:08:03.200 all this is that we 00:08:03.200 --> 00:08:05.900 can't just a react with 00:08:05.900 --> 00:08:07.900 sheer panic at the site 00:08:07.900 --> 00:08:08.800 of the first sight of 00:08:08.800 --> 00:08:10.800 any any enemy and be 00:08:10.800 --> 00:08:13.200 that we that deficit for 00:08:13.200 --> 00:08:16.000 complex things we have to 00:08:16.000 --> 00:08:18.400 just accept that we don't 00:08:18.400 --> 00:08:19.500 have all the answers and 00:08:19.500 --> 00:08:20.300 he said he don't have 00:08:20.300 --> 00:08:21.600 all the answers are decentralized 00:08:21.600 --> 00:08:23.300 level we can't keep relying 00:08:23.300 --> 00:08:25.100 on one or two men 00:08:25.100 --> 00:08:25.800 who we may or may 00:08:25.800 --> 00:08:27.600 not like he lead countries 00:08:27.600 --> 00:08:29.000 have to get us out 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:30.700 of the complex problems in 00:08:30.700 --> 00:08:32.600 society is far far more 00:08:32.600 --> 00:08:34.800 textured and nuanced than that 00:08:34.800 --> 00:08:36.200 and I'm concerned that people 00:08:36.200 --> 00:08:38.400 are running to Central government 00:08:38.400 --> 00:08:40.600 once again and haven't learnt 00:08:40.600 --> 00:08:41.700 the lessons of the past 00:08:41.700 --> 00:08:43.200 in an hour and potentially 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:43.900 making a very big mistake 00:08:43.900 --> 00:08:45.100 again now and then on 00:08:45.100 --> 00:08:46.700 the present I'm just really 00:08:46.700 --> 00:08:47.900 is an imperfect situation that 00:08:47.900 --> 00:08:49.400 we have pretty agree that 00:08:49.400 --> 00:08:50.700 South Africa for example cuz 00:08:50.700 --> 00:08:51.900 that's what you're focusing on 00:08:51.900 --> 00:08:53.000 the moment as a proud 00:08:53.000 --> 00:08:54.800 South Africa is well as 00:08:54.800 --> 00:08:55.800 South African is pretty that 00:08:55.800 --> 00:08:57.200 way it is that we 00:08:57.200 --> 00:08:58.600 need a bespoke a TaylorMade 00:08:58.600 --> 00:09:00.500 approach so for example you 00:09:00.500 --> 00:09:02.100 open up and you've got 00:09:02.100 --> 00:09:02.900 a badge and says well 00:09:02.900 --> 00:09:04.500 I'm healthy and I've been 00:09:04.500 --> 00:09:05.500 tested so I can come 00:09:05.500 --> 00:09:06.400 in and have a drink 00:09:06.400 --> 00:09:07.500 in there some old sick 00:09:07.500 --> 00:09:08.800 person who has got a 00:09:08.800 --> 00:09:10.400 difference for the badge and 00:09:10.400 --> 00:09:11.800 his may be vulnerable that 00:09:11.800 --> 00:09:12.700 person can't come in I 00:09:12.700 --> 00:09:13.600 don't think we have the 00:09:13.600 --> 00:09:15.300 resources to apply the bespoke 00:09:15.300 --> 00:09:17.300 approach Russell well now I 00:09:17.300 --> 00:09:18.700 think we don't have the 00:09:18.700 --> 00:09:20.400 resources to apply is what 00:09:20.400 --> 00:09:21.400 we doing right now then 00:09:21.400 --> 00:09:22.200 see we don't have the 00:09:22.200 --> 00:09:25.000 resources to police 60 million 00:09:25.000 --> 00:09:27.200 people in the draconian fashion 00:09:27.200 --> 00:09:29.500 South Africa is called that 00:09:29.500 --> 00:09:31.500 the entire military at a 00:09:31.500 --> 00:09:33.700 cost of 5 billion in 00:09:33.700 --> 00:09:36.800 expected that'll probably gross things 00:09:36.800 --> 00:09:37.800 are very sticky and white 00:09:37.800 --> 00:09:40.200 unwind very easily if we 00:09:40.200 --> 00:09:42.200 defend 5 billion Rand on 00:09:42.200 --> 00:09:45.400 immediately upscaling our hospital 00:09:45.400 --> 00:09:47.500 in infrastructure building temperature silicone 00:09:47.500 --> 00:09:49.400 and we wouldn't need a 00:09:49.400 --> 00:09:50.900 military to to enforce the 00:09:50.900 --> 00:09:52.100 draconian and locked out I 00:09:52.100 --> 00:09:52.800 don't think we have the 00:09:52.800 --> 00:09:54.500 resources at all at all 00:09:54.500 --> 00:09:55.700 for what for what we're 00:09:55.700 --> 00:09:57.300 trying to figure we shutting 00:09:57.300 --> 00:09:59.000 down the economy and with 00:09:59.000 --> 00:10:01.000 diminishing supply with diminishing a 00:10:01.000 --> 00:10:02.900 pool of wealth the government 00:10:02.900 --> 00:10:05.100 can therefore draw on 222 00:10:05.100 --> 00:10:07.100 management process we now have 00:10:07.100 --> 00:10:08.600 to feed the government now 00:10:08.600 --> 00:10:09.800 is to feed hundreds of 00:10:09.800 --> 00:10:11.000 thousands made in millions of 00:10:11.000 --> 00:10:13.700 people and talking resource constraints 00:10:13.700 --> 00:10:15.500 that where your resource constraints 00:10:15.500 --> 00:10:16.700 are the other side of 00:10:16.700 --> 00:10:18.600 the equation is is creating 00:10:18.600 --> 00:10:21.300 very simple terrible sensible risk 00:10:21.300 --> 00:10:23.400 protocols and allowing businesses to 00:10:23.400 --> 00:10:25.400 open up and on and 00:10:25.400 --> 00:10:27.200 operate and innovate around those 00:10:27.200 --> 00:10:28.800 and the question is how 00:10:28.800 --> 00:10:30.300 do you close the how 00:10:30.300 --> 00:10:31.600 do you administer that you're 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:32.900 not like you administer every 00:10:32.900 --> 00:10:34.400 other every other rule in 00:10:34.400 --> 00:10:36.500 the country in perfectly yes 00:10:36.500 --> 00:10:39.700 but remember that most law 00:10:39.700 --> 00:10:42.400 enforcement happens by citizens themselves 00:10:42.400 --> 00:10:45.000 people observe what businesses are 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:46.800 doing the Whistleblower on businesses 00:10:46.800 --> 00:10:48.400 that are breaking the rules 00:10:48.400 --> 00:10:51.200 agreed and you can have 00:10:51.200 --> 00:10:53.300 age restrictions on on most 00:10:53.300 --> 00:10:56.100 activities that involve public gatherings 00:10:56.100 --> 00:10:58.100 United people above a certain 00:10:58.100 --> 00:11:00.700 age 48 the timer for 00:11:00.700 --> 00:11:01.700 June at Le can't participate 00:11:01.700 --> 00:11:03.400 in those activities there are 00:11:03.400 --> 00:11:04.500 many ways to do kind 00:11:04.500 --> 00:11:05.300 of skin this cat and 00:11:05.300 --> 00:11:07.300 I just think that the 00:11:07.300 --> 00:11:08.200 approach should be taken as 00:11:08.200 --> 00:11:11.100 is the real resource crunch 00:11:11.100 --> 00:11:12.700 we don't have the resources 00:11:12.700 --> 00:11:13.600 to do what we doing 00:11:13.600 --> 00:11:16.200 in South Africa is very 00:11:16.200 --> 00:11:17.400 taccone and I mean it 00:11:17.400 --> 00:11:19.000 I was astonished when they 00:11:19.000 --> 00:11:19.900 think it was something like 00:11:19.900 --> 00:11:21.700 73000 troops will call up 00:11:21.700 --> 00:11:22.200 I don't know how many 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:24.000 have managed to get onto 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:24.900 the street but I don't 00:11:24.900 --> 00:11:26.600 quite understand that one do 00:11:26.600 --> 00:11:27.500 you think them from what 00:11:27.500 --> 00:11:29.300 you just said that you 00:11:29.300 --> 00:11:32.800 would assign responsibility to 00:11:32.800 --> 00:11:34.100 the individual and other words 00:11:34.100 --> 00:11:36.000 we become good at self-regulation 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:38.800 I think there's many layers 00:11:38.800 --> 00:11:39.800 to this Lindsay I don't 00:11:39.800 --> 00:11:41.200 think it's about individual vs 00:11:41.200 --> 00:11:43.300 state I think it's the 00:11:43.300 --> 00:11:44.400 end of the show into 00:11:44.400 --> 00:11:47.200 individual but it's also family 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:50.300 is also your your Suburb 00:11:50.300 --> 00:11:52.900 and your community issue it's 00:11:52.900 --> 00:11:55.700 the institutions of life that 00:11:55.700 --> 00:11:57.500 exists outside of the purview 00:11:57.500 --> 00:11:58.300 of the state you know 00:11:58.300 --> 00:12:01.100 it's it's it's educational institutions 00:12:01.100 --> 00:12:03.000 it's all that it's it's 00:12:03.000 --> 00:12:04.400 all of life as businesses 00:12:04.400 --> 00:12:06.500 you know if we we 00:12:06.500 --> 00:12:09.200 I think had this assumption 00:12:09.200 --> 00:12:10.700 that only the state can 00:12:10.700 --> 00:12:14.100 I see the risks be 00:12:14.100 --> 00:12:17.700 quantified lemon instead of identify 00:12:17.700 --> 00:12:18.800 how bad they are done 00:12:18.800 --> 00:12:20.600 and then she kind of 00:12:20.600 --> 00:12:22.700 implement in at the strategy 00:12:22.700 --> 00:12:23.800 that that everyone has to 00:12:23.800 --> 00:12:26.100 follow and the truth is 00:12:26.100 --> 00:12:28.200 that that all these other 00:12:28.200 --> 00:12:31.100 institutions can manage risk extremely 00:12:31.100 --> 00:12:32.300 effective in that the private 00:12:32.300 --> 00:12:34.600 sector in many respects shows 00:12:34.600 --> 00:12:35.600 how how well it can 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:38.900 manage risks we have specialised 00:12:38.900 --> 00:12:41.500 risk management Industries know if 00:12:41.500 --> 00:12:43.200 you're around insurance and then 00:12:43.200 --> 00:12:45.000 the actual industry there are 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:47.000 many many Solutions and many 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:48.700 many different ways of approaching 00:12:48.700 --> 00:12:50.900 problem and that's precisely how 00:12:50.900 --> 00:12:52.700 complex problems should be approached 00:12:52.700 --> 00:12:54.200 from different angles by many 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:56.200 different smart people what we 00:12:56.200 --> 00:12:57.500 have done instead it is 00:12:57.500 --> 00:12:59.100 we've centralised a few people 00:12:59.600 --> 00:13:01.400 around the presidency were making 00:13:01.400 --> 00:13:04.800 very very opaque decisions and 00:13:04.800 --> 00:13:06.600 if they get one decision 00:13:06.600 --> 00:13:07.900 wrong it's it's kind of 00:13:07.900 --> 00:13:10.200 ruined it for everyone that's 00:13:10.200 --> 00:13:11.500 a huge gamble this is 00:13:11.500 --> 00:13:13.900 radical stuff that I think 00:13:13.900 --> 00:13:15.300 Lindsay is is far more 00:13:15.300 --> 00:13:18.800 moderate and essentially decentralizes 00:13:18.800 --> 00:13:20.000 the risk and in it 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:21.300 and it makes a fellow 00:13:21.300 --> 00:13:22.800 proud and far less likely 00:13:22.800 --> 00:13:24.900 to have a calamitous are 00:13:24.900 --> 00:13:26.400 come in my room so 00:13:26.400 --> 00:13:29.000 you create a ministerial position 00:13:29.000 --> 00:13:30.300 and you are at the 00:13:30.300 --> 00:13:32.600 forefront of the candidacy and 00:13:32.600 --> 00:13:34.100 you are going to be 00:13:34.100 --> 00:13:36.100 the clovered 19 Minister or 00:13:36.100 --> 00:13:37.200 potentially what would be your 00:13:37.200 --> 00:13:38.600 portfolio what would you say 00:13:38.600 --> 00:13:41.000 to Bedminster ramaposa how would 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:42.000 you go about it compared 00:13:42.000 --> 00:13:43.100 to what the aliens theme 00:13:43.100 --> 00:13:44.500 of done I think the 00:13:44.500 --> 00:13:45.800 first thing you've got the 00:13:45.800 --> 00:13:47.400 glue is that what you 00:13:47.400 --> 00:13:49.800 don't know and you need 00:13:49.800 --> 00:13:50.900 to sell them here that 00:13:50.900 --> 00:13:53.300 coming out of government-to-government rustic 00:13:53.300 --> 00:13:54.400 project I suppose and an 00:13:54.400 --> 00:13:57.400 order of omniscience you need 00:13:57.400 --> 00:13:59.200 to you need to talk 00:13:59.200 --> 00:14:00.300 about what you don't know 00:14:00.300 --> 00:14:01.600 and what you cannot achieve 00:14:01.600 --> 00:14:05.000 and therefore why is 00:14:05.000 --> 00:14:06.900 best achieved outside of the 00:14:06.900 --> 00:14:09.300 purview of government and I 00:14:09.300 --> 00:14:10.600 think what the government can 00:14:10.600 --> 00:14:12.300 do as as an administrative 00:14:12.300 --> 00:14:13.600 function as a as a 00:14:13.600 --> 00:14:15.100 as a function that administers 00:14:15.100 --> 00:14:17.700 rules and law and justice 00:14:17.700 --> 00:14:19.300 and all these things is 00:14:19.300 --> 00:14:21.100 I think in a in 00:14:21.100 --> 00:14:23.900 a in a different type 00:14:23.900 --> 00:14:26.100 of way that's the fed 00:14:26.100 --> 00:14:27.700 by the best data that 00:14:27.700 --> 00:14:29.100 that's coming out of the 00:14:29.100 --> 00:14:31.200 global situation is to come 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:34.400 up with tolerable parameters around 00:14:34.400 --> 00:14:36.700 which people can then invite 00:14:36.700 --> 00:14:38.100 themselves and manage their own 00:14:38.100 --> 00:14:41.200 risks so you know it 00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:42.200 might be for example that 00:14:42.200 --> 00:14:44.300 there's a very few set 00:14:44.300 --> 00:14:45.900 of very simple rules like 00:14:45.900 --> 00:14:48.300 a like age restrictions as 00:14:48.300 --> 00:14:50.100 an age age cats on 00:14:50.100 --> 00:14:51.400 on who can participate in 00:14:51.400 --> 00:14:54.000 certain events search density cats 00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:55.700 on on factories or on 00:14:55.700 --> 00:14:57.600 certain kinds of economic activity 00:14:57.600 --> 00:14:59.400 or on travel for exam 00:14:59.500 --> 00:15:01.200 even even under these sorts 00:15:01.200 --> 00:15:02.200 of Rules I believe that 00:15:02.200 --> 00:15:03.600 the airline's could open up 00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:05.100 again the Airlines could operate 00:15:05.100 --> 00:15:06.900 it may be that if 00:15:06.900 --> 00:15:08.200 you're over a certain age 00:15:08.200 --> 00:15:09.300 you don't get to fly 00:15:09.300 --> 00:15:10.700 it may be that the 00:15:10.700 --> 00:15:13.100 airplane or less filled with 00:15:13.100 --> 00:15:15.600 people but I think that 00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:16.900 that ultimately you can make 00:15:16.900 --> 00:15:18.200 some very simple parameters and 00:15:18.200 --> 00:15:20.300 then you allow the allow 00:15:20.300 --> 00:15:21.600 the private sector to allow 00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:24.800 free Society to the nearest 00:15:24.800 --> 00:15:25.700 from there and then you 00:15:25.700 --> 00:15:29.400 administer that under due-process without 00:15:29.400 --> 00:15:30.900 making all these new set 00:15:30.900 --> 00:15:32.800 of ham-fisted rules and regulations 00:15:32.800 --> 00:15:34.300 and I think since the 00:15:34.300 --> 00:15:37.200 start of the lockdown situation 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:39.700 Lindsay we've gotten about 500 00:15:39.700 --> 00:15:42.400 new pages of rules and 00:15:42.400 --> 00:15:44.200 regulations and I can promise 00:15:44.200 --> 00:15:45.700 you now that not all 00:15:45.700 --> 00:15:47.300 about it 500 pages will 00:15:47.300 --> 00:15:48.400 disappear when this is all 00:15:48.400 --> 00:15:49.700 done yes I do think 00:15:49.700 --> 00:15:50.700 that the government to serve 00:15:50.700 --> 00:15:52.500 around the world are not 00:15:52.500 --> 00:15:53.900 using it but certainly are 00:15:53.900 --> 00:15:56.100 going to take advantage of 00:15:56.100 --> 00:15:58.000 this current situation if for 00:15:58.000 --> 00:15:59.600 example in Russia that the 00:15:59.600 --> 00:16:01.200 amount of scrutiny that Russian 00:16:01.200 --> 00:16:02.200 citizens around at the moment 00:16:02.200 --> 00:16:04.900 won't disappear once covid-19 is 00:16:04.900 --> 00:16:05.900 over that's an extreme of 00:16:05.900 --> 00:16:06.700 it just in case you 00:16:06.700 --> 00:16:07.800 do become the minister of 00:16:07.800 --> 00:16:09.600 the coronavirus could you please 00:16:09.600 --> 00:16:11.300 could you please make the 00:16:11.300 --> 00:16:13.100 trade restrictions for people over 00:16:13.100 --> 00:16:16.700 60 thank you whatever 00:16:16.700 --> 00:16:18.100 holiday at some stage in 00:16:18.100 --> 00:16:19.100 my life I don't trivialize 00:16:19.100 --> 00:16:22.400 will be trite or dismissive 00:16:22.400 --> 00:16:23.600 of of what's what's happening 00:16:23.600 --> 00:16:24.300 at the moment but I 00:16:24.300 --> 00:16:26.000 do find it fascinating when 00:16:26.000 --> 00:16:27.200 it comes to the potential 00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:28.700 investment trends when it comes 00:16:28.700 --> 00:16:30.000 to social behaviour when it 00:16:30.000 --> 00:16:31.500 comes to stupid things like 00:16:31.500 --> 00:16:32.900 for example you haven't had 00:16:32.900 --> 00:16:34.800 your haircut for 5 weeks 00:16:34.800 --> 00:16:36.000 or so do you go 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:37.400 back to your old haircut 00:16:37.400 --> 00:16:38.200 or do you grow your 00:16:38.200 --> 00:16:39.900 hair long do fashion trends 00:16:39.900 --> 00:16:41.300 change the social trends change 00:16:41.300 --> 00:16:44.100 importantly does human behaviour changed 00:16:44.100 --> 00:16:45.200 so they don't go to 00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:46.100 work 5 days a week 00:16:46.100 --> 00:16:47.700 before days a week you 00:16:47.700 --> 00:16:48.700 only go to work one 00:16:48.700 --> 00:16:49.500 day way to say hello 00:16:49.500 --> 00:16:50.400 to a couple of people 00:16:50.400 --> 00:16:51.700 and then go back to 00:16:51.700 --> 00:16:54.400 find this prospect absolute flooring 00:16:54.400 --> 00:16:57.500 guy literally no million-dollar 00:16:57.500 --> 00:17:00.700 maybe billion-dollar question I think 00:17:00.700 --> 00:17:02.000 I think the day you 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:03.300 know depending on how long 00:17:03.300 --> 00:17:04.600 this lasts and depending on 00:17:04.600 --> 00:17:06.500 how long we off I 00:17:06.500 --> 00:17:07.800 guess in this posture of 00:17:07.800 --> 00:17:09.900 Fear or cracked posture of 00:17:09.900 --> 00:17:12.200 of of defensiveness around around 00:17:12.200 --> 00:17:14.100 health risks yeah this is 00:17:14.100 --> 00:17:15.300 I think I maybe some 00:17:15.300 --> 00:17:18.000 fascinating little micro trains that 00:17:18.000 --> 00:17:20.600 are going to merge and 00:17:20.600 --> 00:17:21.600 it's just really hard to 00:17:21.600 --> 00:17:22.900 pin down exactly with his 00:17:22.900 --> 00:17:24.900 honour and a lot smarter 00:17:24.900 --> 00:17:26.300 than me you're probably thinking 00:17:26.300 --> 00:17:27.400 very hard about some the 00:17:27.400 --> 00:17:28.600 stuff and jumping into some 00:17:28.600 --> 00:17:32.000 of these trends early but 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:32.900 am I do I do 00:17:32.900 --> 00:17:34.100 think about Alyssa think at 00:17:34.100 --> 00:17:36.400 the bigger picture for me 00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:38.100 I'm not I'm not sure 00:17:38.100 --> 00:17:41.000 the coronavirus is a is 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:43.400 itself a a very significant 00:17:43.400 --> 00:17:46.600 trend changer as much 00:17:46.600 --> 00:17:47.900 as much as I think 00:17:47.900 --> 00:17:51.300 it is a trend accelerator 00:17:51.300 --> 00:17:53.300 so I have a feeling 00:17:53.300 --> 00:17:54.500 that that the trend that 00:17:54.500 --> 00:17:55.600 were in place and some 00:17:55.600 --> 00:17:56.300 of the big things that 00:17:56.300 --> 00:17:57.400 were in play store all 00:17:57.400 --> 00:17:58.400 that were trending in place 00:17:59.400 --> 00:18:00.800 how to craft a virus 00:18:00.800 --> 00:18:03.000 might have been accelerated by 00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:03.800 it I just think of 00:18:03.800 --> 00:18:05.000 one example is he being 00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:06.500 being that we we know 00:18:06.500 --> 00:18:07.300 we were in a world 00:18:07.300 --> 00:18:09.700 that was trending more towards 00:18:09.700 --> 00:18:13.000 nationalism and more A restrictive 00:18:13.000 --> 00:18:16.100 travel at border crossings all 00:18:16.100 --> 00:18:17.400 these things were employed not 00:18:17.400 --> 00:18:18.200 only in the US in 00:18:18.200 --> 00:18:20.000 the UK but it's rearing 00:18:20.000 --> 00:18:21.200 its head throughout Europe as 00:18:21.200 --> 00:18:23.000 well and I think what's 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:24.200 really interesting about this is 00:18:24.200 --> 00:18:25.400 if anything this is going 00:18:25.400 --> 00:18:26.700 to accelerate the trend like 00:18:26.700 --> 00:18:27.500 that it's going to make 00:18:27.500 --> 00:18:28.800 people a little more wary 00:18:28.800 --> 00:18:31.400 of just letting you know 00:18:31.400 --> 00:18:33.300 anyone into the country it's 00:18:33.300 --> 00:18:34.800 going to probably be an 00:18:34.800 --> 00:18:37.000 accelerant barriers if you like 00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:39.000 going up around the world 00:18:39.000 --> 00:18:41.000 and certainly there's been no 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:42.400 love lost between the US 00:18:42.400 --> 00:18:43.600 and china over this kind 00:18:43.600 --> 00:18:44.400 of virus but again it's 00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:45.600 an accelerant of a trend 00:18:45.600 --> 00:18:47.100 that was already in play 00:18:47.100 --> 00:18:50.200 some example we had central 00:18:50.200 --> 00:18:52.200 banks looking to drop interest 00:18:52.200 --> 00:18:54.900 rates print money coronavirus has 00:18:54.900 --> 00:18:58.000 accelerated the trend in incredibly 00:18:58.000 --> 00:19:00.000 and is made of examples 00:19:00.000 --> 00:19:01.100 of given and I'm sure 00:19:01.100 --> 00:19:02.400 someone really smart to give 00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:03.300 an example of where a 00:19:03.300 --> 00:19:04.800 trend may be changing in 00:19:04.800 --> 00:19:05.600 may be turning around I'm 00:19:05.600 --> 00:19:07.000 sure that you're probably also 00:19:07.000 --> 00:19:08.300 there lurking somewhere but I 00:19:08.300 --> 00:19:10.700 think paint accelerant is a 00:19:10.700 --> 00:19:11.400 good way to think about 00:19:11.400 --> 00:19:13.200 the same in the obvious 00:19:13.200 --> 00:19:14.800 one is home deliveries I 00:19:14.800 --> 00:19:15.800 mean it's it's it's so 00:19:15.800 --> 00:19:17.500 simple and so obvious and 00:19:17.500 --> 00:19:18.400 you see the Amazon share 00:19:18.400 --> 00:19:20.100 price going to all-time record 00:19:20.100 --> 00:19:21.100 highs despite the rest of 00:19:21.100 --> 00:19:22.500 them are being under little 00:19:22.500 --> 00:19:23.500 bit of pressure but I 00:19:23.500 --> 00:19:25.300 mean it's almost too obvious 00:19:25.300 --> 00:19:26.700 for that to be a 00:19:26.700 --> 00:19:29.800 trend accelerants although it wasn't 00:19:29.800 --> 00:19:31.100 place has been accelerated of 00:19:31.100 --> 00:19:32.300 course well it's certainly not 00:19:32.300 --> 00:19:33.900 obvious than in South Africa 00:19:33.900 --> 00:19:35.500 Lindsay because I think with 00:19:35.500 --> 00:19:36.200 the only country in the 00:19:36.200 --> 00:19:38.200 world where e-commerce remains band 00:19:38.200 --> 00:19:41.500 spirit thought I don't understand 00:19:41.500 --> 00:19:42.200 that one and I don't 00:19:42.200 --> 00:19:43.500 understand can show me something 00:19:43.500 --> 00:19:47.800 is your alcohol 00:19:47.800 --> 00:19:49.800 alcohol and cigarettes banned in 00:19:49.800 --> 00:19:51.200 South Africa I don't quite 00:19:51.200 --> 00:19:53.000 understand that is that because 00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:54.800 of social social unrest or 00:19:54.800 --> 00:19:56.300 something I think it's I 00:19:56.300 --> 00:19:57.200 think it's good old South 00:19:57.200 --> 00:20:00.500 African you know paternalism you 00:20:00.500 --> 00:20:01.500 know the masses can't be 00:20:01.500 --> 00:20:03.200 trusted with booze and Fugs 00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:06.000 you know and I think 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:06.800 it's more of this sort 00:20:06.800 --> 00:20:09.300 of Petty Petty bureaucracy what's 00:20:09.300 --> 00:20:11.800 the NCR lapping up and 00:20:11.800 --> 00:20:13.300 in many ways you know 00:20:13.300 --> 00:20:15.200 replicating from the from the 00:20:15.200 --> 00:20:17.000 bad old days so I 00:20:17.000 --> 00:20:18.000 just think I think it's 00:20:18.000 --> 00:20:18.800 we getting more of the 00:20:18.800 --> 00:20:19.400 same I mean I mean 00:20:19.400 --> 00:20:21.400 the the ban on e-commerce 00:20:21.400 --> 00:20:24.400 is to my mind like 00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:25.100 I can get my head 00:20:25.100 --> 00:20:26.800 around the arguments for banning 00:20:26.800 --> 00:20:28.000 alcohol I disagree with it 00:20:28.000 --> 00:20:28.700 but I can sit up 00:20:28.700 --> 00:20:31.100 here hear the arguments and 00:20:31.100 --> 00:20:33.100 I don't I don't hear 00:20:33.100 --> 00:20:35.900 the arguments on e-commerce if 00:20:35.900 --> 00:20:37.600 you disallow people from going 00:20:37.600 --> 00:20:39.100 and buying clothes for the 00:20:39.100 --> 00:20:40.500 looming winter in South Africa 00:20:40.500 --> 00:20:43.200 but you then also disallowed 00:20:43.200 --> 00:20:44.800 him from getting them delivered 00:20:44.800 --> 00:20:46.600 to the house which is 00:20:46.600 --> 00:20:48.500 about the safest way I 00:20:48.500 --> 00:20:50.000 can think from a virus 00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:51.800 perspective of buying something will 00:20:51.800 --> 00:20:55.100 Chris adjust adjust 00:20:55.100 --> 00:20:56.900 beggars belief II you know 00:20:56.900 --> 00:20:58.000 and and internet for the 00:20:58.000 --> 00:21:01.700 only explanation is sheer pettiness 00:21:01.700 --> 00:21:03.100 and and the power trip 00:21:03.100 --> 00:21:04.800 that these bureaucrats are on 00:21:04.800 --> 00:21:05.600 and I and I and 00:21:05.600 --> 00:21:06.600 I think there's a lot 00:21:06.600 --> 00:21:07.300 to be said for that 00:21:07.300 --> 00:21:08.000 I think we're seeing a 00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:10.100 real honest power trip here 00:21:10.100 --> 00:21:12.200 in South Africa okay I'm 00:21:12.200 --> 00:21:13.100 having too much fun to 00:21:13.100 --> 00:21:15.000 curtail this Jack Russell so 00:21:15.000 --> 00:21:16.200 I told me for the 00:21:16.200 --> 00:21:17.100 next few minutes and give 00:21:17.100 --> 00:21:18.500 me some Wisdom love you 00:21:18.500 --> 00:21:20.300 all from outside of the 00:21:20.300 --> 00:21:21.500 borders of the Republic of 00:21:21.500 --> 00:21:22.400 South Africa and let's look 00:21:22.400 --> 00:21:23.600 at couple of other countries 00:21:23.600 --> 00:21:25.200 for example of the United 00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:26.600 States of America with the 00:21:26.600 --> 00:21:28.100 United Kingdom or even Italy 00:21:28.100 --> 00:21:29.000 how do you think they've 00:21:29.000 --> 00:21:31.000 handled it given the demographics 00:21:31.000 --> 00:21:33.300 in the difference in Economic 00:21:33.300 --> 00:21:36.300 and socio-economic profiles yeah 00:21:36.300 --> 00:21:38.800 great question I I think 00:21:38.800 --> 00:21:40.800 that's what I am happy 00:21:40.800 --> 00:21:42.300 about is that countries have 00:21:42.300 --> 00:21:45.500 taken different paths in 00:21:45.500 --> 00:21:46.800 in dealing with this we 00:21:46.800 --> 00:21:49.000 got the Sweden approached the 00:21:49.000 --> 00:21:51.300 Taiwan approach is similar we've 00:21:51.300 --> 00:21:53.400 got the the United talion 00:21:53.400 --> 00:21:56.100 in Spanish approach is Germany's 00:21:56.100 --> 00:21:57.400 a little bit different the 00:21:57.400 --> 00:22:00.500 UK was the dove flowerland 00:22:00.500 --> 00:22:03.600 in contrast and America is 00:22:03.600 --> 00:22:05.100 is kind of quite unique 00:22:05.100 --> 00:22:06.000 as well in the in 00:22:06.000 --> 00:22:07.300 that it has this very 00:22:07.300 --> 00:22:10.400 federalized system this very federalized 00:22:10.400 --> 00:22:11.800 response so you've actually got 00:22:11.800 --> 00:22:12.900 the different states within the 00:22:12.900 --> 00:22:15.200 United States and taking very 00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:17.500 different decisions around the Nether 00:22:17.500 --> 00:22:20.600 lockdown response and soap as 00:22:20.600 --> 00:22:21.900 a general comment I think 00:22:21.900 --> 00:22:23.200 it's really good that we've 00:22:23.200 --> 00:22:26.000 got these different different approaches 00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:28.000 because because we going to 00:22:28.000 --> 00:22:29.400 get some good data from 00:22:29.400 --> 00:22:31.000 it that sounds very cold 00:22:31.000 --> 00:22:33.100 and clinical but I think 00:22:33.100 --> 00:22:33.900 it's going to help us 00:22:33.900 --> 00:22:36.100 learn some some important as 00:22:36.100 --> 00:22:37.100 we go beyond that's what 00:22:37.100 --> 00:22:38.000 we seeing I think in 00:22:38.000 --> 00:22:39.100 the data up until now 00:22:39.100 --> 00:22:41.500 and of course you know 00:22:41.500 --> 00:22:42.300 it's it's a it's a 00:22:42.300 --> 00:22:43.600 minefield out there just a 00:22:43.600 --> 00:22:44.600 tad bit but I would 00:22:44.600 --> 00:22:45.800 say that if he had 00:22:45.800 --> 00:22:46.900 to pull back the lens 00:22:46.900 --> 00:22:48.800 what you seeing across all 00:22:48.800 --> 00:22:50.800 these countries is that the 00:22:50.800 --> 00:22:52.100 approach that everyone has taken 00:22:52.100 --> 00:22:53.900 whether it's it's hard lockdown 00:22:53.900 --> 00:22:57.100 immediate lockdown delayed as the 00:22:57.100 --> 00:22:58.400 Sweden approach which is very 00:22:58.400 --> 00:23:00.100 very little how many kind 00:23:00.100 --> 00:23:01.500 of lockdown bit more social 00:23:01.500 --> 00:23:03.800 distancing it seems to be 00:23:03.800 --> 00:23:06.400 that the that the outcome 00:23:06.400 --> 00:23:07.700 for the spread of the 00:23:07.700 --> 00:23:09.700 disease and for Death is 00:23:09.700 --> 00:23:12.300 by-and-large quite similar if it 00:23:12.300 --> 00:23:13.700 doesn't seem to have a 00:23:13.700 --> 00:23:17.000 huge impact now that you 00:23:17.000 --> 00:23:18.000 know that might change we 00:23:18.000 --> 00:23:19.400 made it more clarity on 00:23:19.400 --> 00:23:20.400 that on that date as 00:23:20.400 --> 00:23:21.200 we go through time but 00:23:21.200 --> 00:23:22.000 I think that's an interesting 00:23:22.000 --> 00:23:24.500 for the first conclusion that 00:23:24.500 --> 00:23:25.400 was starting to see from 00:23:25.400 --> 00:23:26.300 the from the date is 00:23:26.300 --> 00:23:28.100 that it doesn't really matter 00:23:28.100 --> 00:23:30.100 that much and and and 00:23:30.100 --> 00:23:31.700 I think it's another question 00:23:31.700 --> 00:23:32.800 is I suppose what does 00:23:32.800 --> 00:23:34.900 matter because we are seeing 00:23:34.900 --> 00:23:36.900 we are seeing some countries 00:23:36.900 --> 00:23:39.300 experiencing very high death rates 00:23:39.300 --> 00:23:42.400 like Italy like Spain portions 00:23:42.400 --> 00:23:43.400 of the United States like 00:23:43.400 --> 00:23:44.500 New York City and even 00:23:44.500 --> 00:23:45.900 worse than Italy it's mostly 00:23:45.900 --> 00:23:46.600 up in the North Sea 00:23:46.600 --> 00:23:48.900 known Lombardi says scary very 00:23:48.900 --> 00:23:50.900 very very regional specific which 00:23:50.900 --> 00:23:52.300 is Which is kind of 00:23:52.300 --> 00:23:52.800 a bit of a head-scratcher 00:23:52.800 --> 00:23:55.900 as well and I guess 00:23:55.900 --> 00:23:57.000 I guess but the one 00:23:57.000 --> 00:23:57.900 thing we do know is 00:23:57.900 --> 00:24:00.300 that is that a better 00:24:00.300 --> 00:24:02.800 and and and underlying illnesses 00:24:02.800 --> 00:24:03.900 and comorbidities is it is 00:24:03.900 --> 00:24:05.500 a huge Factor so so 00:24:05.500 --> 00:24:07.900 what I will say is 00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:09.200 this Linda the final comment 00:24:09.200 --> 00:24:11.200 on this is letting these 00:24:11.200 --> 00:24:13.200 different approaches there for my 00:24:13.200 --> 00:24:14.400 conclusion at this stage is 00:24:14.400 --> 00:24:17.200 with these different approaches aren't 00:24:17.200 --> 00:24:18.800 really making that much of 00:24:18.800 --> 00:24:19.700 a difference from a from 00:24:19.700 --> 00:24:22.000 a virus so did epidemiological 00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:24.300 perspective but they certainly are 00:24:24.300 --> 00:24:25.700 making a difference from an 00:24:25.700 --> 00:24:27.300 economic perspective and what was 00:24:27.300 --> 00:24:28.800 interesting to see was in 00:24:28.800 --> 00:24:30.600 the month of March we 00:24:30.600 --> 00:24:33.000 saw vehicle sales collapse across 00:24:33.000 --> 00:24:35.500 the whole of Europe with 00:24:35.500 --> 00:24:36.700 you're talking Spain or Italy 00:24:36.700 --> 00:24:38.800 which were obvious ones but 00:24:38.800 --> 00:24:39.900 even a place like Austria 00:24:39.900 --> 00:24:43.200 France and Germany a country 00:24:43.200 --> 00:24:44.700 that gets so it's a 00:24:44.700 --> 00:24:46.600 vehicle sales numbers and therefore 00:24:46.600 --> 00:24:48.800 as a proxy for Economic 00:24:48.800 --> 00:24:51.000 activity holdups till 4 but 00:24:51.000 --> 00:24:53.200 hold up far far better 00:24:53.200 --> 00:24:54.500 than everyone else was intact 00:24:54.500 --> 00:24:57.000 Sweden and what is not 00:24:57.000 --> 00:24:58.600 surprising they haven't shut down 00:24:58.600 --> 00:25:00.400 so so so what what's 00:25:00.400 --> 00:25:01.300 going on here is this 00:25:01.300 --> 00:25:04.600 Sweden may may be moving 00:25:04.600 --> 00:25:06.900 into a situation where there 00:25:06.900 --> 00:25:09.200 virus outcomes are no worse 00:25:09.200 --> 00:25:10.700 than their than the Peer 00:25:10.700 --> 00:25:13.000 group but that their economic 00:25:13.000 --> 00:25:16.500 outcomes are certainly better and 00:25:16.500 --> 00:25:17.400 I think that could be 00:25:17.400 --> 00:25:18.700 a very very telling of 00:25:18.700 --> 00:25:20.700 data point when this is 00:25:20.700 --> 00:25:21.500 all said and done to 00:25:21.500 --> 00:25:23.700 just finish it because Australia 00:25:23.700 --> 00:25:25.900 is lifted its restrictions probably 00:25:25.900 --> 00:25:27.300 more than most think business 00:25:27.300 --> 00:25:28.500 has gone back to 40% 00:25:28.500 --> 00:25:29.300 of what it was before 00:25:29.300 --> 00:25:30.600 it goes back to your 00:25:30.600 --> 00:25:34.200 point about individuals self-regulating 00:25:34.200 --> 00:25:35.600 so people can go and 00:25:35.600 --> 00:25:36.400 do what they used to 00:25:36.400 --> 00:25:37.400 do but they're choosing not 00:25:37.400 --> 00:25:38.700 to at the moment and 00:25:38.700 --> 00:25:39.300 I live in the Netherlands 00:25:39.300 --> 00:25:41.400 right now and I found 00:25:41.400 --> 00:25:42.900 a hotel the other day 00:25:42.900 --> 00:25:44.200 and I just wanted to 00:25:44.200 --> 00:25:45.500 get some anecdotal evidence of 00:25:45.500 --> 00:25:46.400 what's going on I thought 00:25:46.400 --> 00:25:47.900 maybe the rates have gone 00:25:47.900 --> 00:25:50.400 down from 159 to maybe 00:25:50.400 --> 00:25:51.900 30-40 years and night just 00:25:51.900 --> 00:25:53.200 to get their people through 00:25:53.200 --> 00:25:53.900 the door but not a 00:25:53.900 --> 00:25:54.900 bit of it in fact 00:25:54.900 --> 00:25:55.700 they've gone up a little 00:25:55.700 --> 00:25:58.500 bit and wool 5 weeks 00:25:58.500 --> 00:26:00.000 ago I find this particular 00:26:00.000 --> 00:26:01.500 hotel in the manager said 00:26:01.500 --> 00:26:03.300 we've got one room occupied 00:26:03.300 --> 00:26:04.900 at the moment now I 00:26:04.900 --> 00:26:06.200 spoke to them 3 days 00:26:06.200 --> 00:26:07.500 ago and said what's the 00:26:07.500 --> 00:26:08.500 update he said we should 00:26:08.500 --> 00:26:09.900 have got 50 rooms because 00:26:09.900 --> 00:26:11.300 the Dutch people are so 00:26:11.300 --> 00:26:12.300 fed up with not being 00:26:12.300 --> 00:26:13.100 able to go out to 00:26:13.100 --> 00:26:15.800 a restaurant that they're booking 00:26:15.800 --> 00:26:16.800 a room at a hotel 00:26:16.800 --> 00:26:18.200 just for a night in 00:26:18.200 --> 00:26:19.400 order to get a meal 00:26:19.400 --> 00:26:21.100 delivered to their room from 00:26:21.100 --> 00:26:22.800 the kitchen to the sofa 00:26:22.800 --> 00:26:24.500 that we can is the 00:26:24.500 --> 00:26:26.400 sort of person didn't micro-trends 00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:28.000 that tell me that something 00:26:28.000 --> 00:26:28.900 is going to happen just 00:26:28.900 --> 00:26:30.500 very final question I promise 00:26:30.500 --> 00:26:31.200 it is the last one 00:26:31.200 --> 00:26:33.600 I spoke to somebody who 00:26:33.600 --> 00:26:34.900 says we gonna go back 00:26:34.900 --> 00:26:37.300 to normal life as soon 00:26:37.300 --> 00:26:38.900 as the restrictions are lifted 00:26:38.900 --> 00:26:41.000 other people are saying no 00:26:41.000 --> 00:26:43.200 this is changed everything where 00:26:43.200 --> 00:26:45.500 do you stand that left 00:26:45.500 --> 00:26:46.500 right or somewhere in the 00:26:46.500 --> 00:26:48.800 middle yeah I did at 00:26:48.800 --> 00:26:50.200 risk of the risk of 00:26:50.200 --> 00:26:51.400 being at the fence but 00:26:51.400 --> 00:26:53.600 I I I do kind 00:26:53.600 --> 00:26:55.000 of feel it initially will 00:26:55.000 --> 00:26:56.200 look look like something in 00:26:56.200 --> 00:26:57.000 the middle there I think 00:26:57.000 --> 00:26:59.000 that there's no doubt there's 00:26:59.000 --> 00:27:00.900 no they say that that 00:27:00.900 --> 00:27:03.600 everything gets lifted and we 00:27:03.600 --> 00:27:04.500 go we click our fingers 00:27:04.500 --> 00:27:05.800 and we go immediately back 00:27:05.800 --> 00:27:06.500 to where we were I 00:27:06.500 --> 00:27:07.700 agree with you on that 00:27:07.700 --> 00:27:09.900 that's very very improbable and 00:27:09.900 --> 00:27:12.500 where does the saying you're 00:27:12.500 --> 00:27:13.400 seeing signs of that in 00:27:13.400 --> 00:27:16.300 Austria an intern in practical 00:27:16.300 --> 00:27:18.000 in the Netherlands very strange 00:27:18.000 --> 00:27:18.800 kind of things going on 00:27:18.800 --> 00:27:20.300 so I don't think we 00:27:20.300 --> 00:27:21.600 go back to normal immediately 00:27:21.600 --> 00:27:23.500 but equally I think that 00:27:23.500 --> 00:27:25.000 the people who say this 00:27:25.000 --> 00:27:26.500 changes everything you know that 00:27:26.500 --> 00:27:28.500 this Changes Everything crowd I 00:27:28.500 --> 00:27:30.100 think I was taking it 00:27:30.100 --> 00:27:31.200 I think that's overstating the 00:27:31.200 --> 00:27:33.400 case I think it's potentially 00:27:33.400 --> 00:27:35.200 Changes Everything to the extent 00:27:35.200 --> 00:27:38.600 that perpetuates government's right 00:27:38.600 --> 00:27:40.500 and government's ability to to 00:27:40.500 --> 00:27:43.600 civilian significantly control 00:27:43.600 --> 00:27:45.400 how Society behaves in the 00:27:45.400 --> 00:27:46.200 kind of things we can 00:27:46.200 --> 00:27:46.900 do a one of the 00:27:46.900 --> 00:27:47.800 things I'm worried about for 00:27:47.800 --> 00:27:48.800 example we know we still 00:27:48.800 --> 00:27:51.300 post 9/11 the ramping up 00:27:51.300 --> 00:27:54.500 of airport security post covid 00:27:54.500 --> 00:27:55.800 I can only imagine what 00:27:55.800 --> 00:27:57.100 a nightmare airports are going 00:27:57.100 --> 00:27:58.000 to become in terms of 00:27:58.000 --> 00:28:00.200 not only in Judy feelings 00:28:00.200 --> 00:28:01.500 but then health screenings and 00:28:01.500 --> 00:28:03.400 phone calls travel I think 00:28:03.400 --> 00:28:05.100 it is one of the 00:28:05.100 --> 00:28:06.100 areas where we gonna see 00:28:06.100 --> 00:28:08.300 this change you know most 00:28:08.300 --> 00:28:10.300 lasting and most frustrating probably 00:28:10.300 --> 00:28:10.800 I think it's going to 00:28:10.800 --> 00:28:13.300 be very very onerous and 00:28:13.300 --> 00:28:15.300 ends in an unenviable to 00:28:15.300 --> 00:28:17.200 travel now to move through 00:28:17.200 --> 00:28:18.500 these busy airports I think 00:28:18.500 --> 00:28:18.900 it's going to be a 00:28:18.900 --> 00:28:19.700 bit of a nightmare so 00:28:19.700 --> 00:28:20.600 so that you know that 00:28:20.600 --> 00:28:22.000 those books of various concerns 00:28:22.000 --> 00:28:23.100 me and I suppose there's 00:28:23.100 --> 00:28:24.900 a few more that I 00:28:24.900 --> 00:28:25.900 do worry about I think 00:28:25.900 --> 00:28:26.700 it'll take us a few 00:28:26.700 --> 00:28:28.800 months to get over but 00:28:28.800 --> 00:28:30.900 normal life can resume you 00:28:30.900 --> 00:28:32.500 know the biggest the biggest 00:28:32.500 --> 00:28:33.100 thing for me is that 00:28:33.100 --> 00:28:35.600 people have to demand and 00:28:35.600 --> 00:28:37.400 and fight for their their 00:28:37.400 --> 00:28:39.400 civil liberties again when all 00:28:39.400 --> 00:28:41.100 this blows over the last 00:28:41.100 --> 00:28:41.900 thing we want is to 00:28:41.900 --> 00:28:44.000 be left with very very 00:28:44.000 --> 00:28:46.600 overbearing sort of soft tyranny 00:28:46.600 --> 00:28:49.700 that's a real concern 00:28:49.700 --> 00:28:50.500 I have and I hope 00:28:50.500 --> 00:28:51.700 that people can spot that 00:28:51.700 --> 00:28:53.000 risk and and try to 00:28:53.000 --> 00:28:55.100 resist that listen to eat 00:28:55.100 --> 00:28:55.600 in the words of the 00:28:55.600 --> 00:28:57.400 poet Robert Frost very very 00:28:57.400 --> 00:28:59.000 simple statement he made life 00:28:59.100 --> 00:29:00.500 does on WhatsApp thank you 00:29:00.500 --> 00:29:02.000 so much for your wisdom 00:29:02.000 --> 00:29:04.000 server celebrity the founder of 00:29:04.000 --> 00:29:06.100 ATM macro advisors in the 00:29:06.100 --> 00:29:07.800 Western Cape the views and 00:29:07.800 --> 00:29:09.600 opinions expressed in his podcast 00:29:09.600 --> 00:29:10.900 of those of Lindsay Williams 00:29:10.900 --> 00:29:13.200 and various contributors and do 00:29:13.200 --> 00:29:14.900 not reflect the policy position 00:29:14.900 --> 00:29:16.400 or opinion of any other 00:29:16.400 --> 00:29:18.900 agency or organisation employer or 00:29:18.900 --> 00:29:21.800 company associated with strictly business 00:29:21.800 --> 00:29:24.400 podcast of assumptions made on 00:29:24.400 --> 00:29:26.500 the analyses on not reflective 00:29:26.500 --> 00:29:27.800 of the position of any 00:29:27.800 --> 00:29:29.200 other entity other than the 00:29:29.200 --> 00:29:30.900 speaker all the author and 00:29:30.900 --> 00:29:32.500 since we are critically thinking 00:29:32.500 --> 00:29:34.300 human beings these views are 00:29:34.300 --> 00:29:36.600 always subject to change revision 00:29:36.600 --> 00:29:39.200 and rethinking at anytime please 00:29:39.200 --> 00:29:40.000 do not hold us to 00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:40.800 them in perpetuity