you listen to strictly business
podcast with Lindsay Williams haven't
spoken to my next guest
since around about early to
mid-february I think it was
and he's been very vocal
on social media about the
current situation when it comes
to covid-19 coronavirus and to
the way the two governments
and people are treating this
particular pandemic has it's called
his name is Russell Lambert
is the founder of ATM
macro advisors Russell been
very worried about this since
you got a bit of
a bee in your bonnet
the lens is good to
be with you again I
think that we've taken a
very very radical course of
action you know global lockdowns
and particularly the kind that
we experiencing in South Africa
which is extremely draconian I
just think it is a
radical treatment for a
problem that's clearly clearly significant
I think I think the
more data that comes out
weird getting a better no
on on the scope and
scale of wood covid-19 is
and I think the good
news is that while it's
clearly nasty it's it's not
as it's not as bad
as as a regional affairs
you know let us to
believe and I think that
that even if you might
justify early lockdowns as
as a precautionary approach I
think we've got sufficient evidence
now to to suggest that
that they can and must
start being lifted very very
quickly because I think that
we are starting to create
unimaginable unintended
consequences from the macroeconomic
Outlook calamity that's that's now
emerging and so that really
is my is my position
I think that that we
need we need to continue
with the sensible disease risk
management and have a much
better idea of who the
high-risk group is now given
the date that we see
we don't know everything aspirus
I Grant you that we
certainly have a much clearer
picture that the picture that's
that's far less clear is
just how bad is locked
down to going to get
for not just regular you
know Employment and income statistics
but who will quality in
a 4-foot for poor people
particularly in South Africa who
are I think coming to
a point of real desperation
now and I would like
to see much more proactive
opening up again and the
sensible so Dave risk management
protocols so so that's that's
the Bee that I've got
in my bonnet I think
we doing some real damage
as I think we are
I mean what you're doing
is sensually is playing the
macro-environment the macroeconomic environment and
economic futures a vs human
life now how do you
do that do accept them
that if we do completely
abandon the lockdown scenario then
there is going to be
some Collateral Damage we just
have to live with it
or rather die but that
I think this is like
Lindsay I don't think it's
economy vs life I think
when you have dramatic lockdowns
like with seeing and you
trust people into joblessness you
trust them into hangar 22
in the west coast is
severe malnutrition and poverty you
talking real mortality based
problems here you're talking about
increased risk of tuberculosis be
talking about significantly increased risk
of all the kinds of
diseases that are associated with
poverty higher child mortality higher
infant mortality so I I
don't accept that it's it's
a sort of taking Collateral
Damage on the tintype situation
I think we're creating tremendous
Collateral Damage and I think
that the evidence that we
have up until now suggested
that the trade-off is between
very old very sick people
by and large of the
overwhelmingly vs you
know I think many many
probably you know two orders
of magnitude more very very
vulnerable young people now who
have to have their their
their whole lives ahead of
them I think I think
we're making a very very
risky and ill-advised trade off
here so I think it's
like slides vs light as
I say and I think
that policymakers probably haven't fully
thought through what the risks
that are now creating through
unintended consequences and answer now
now no one is on
this incident and no one
is perfectly present and so
I would say that the
risk management principle is not
necessarily to make enough for
a single policy maker to
make the perfect Choice and
the perfect decision I think
that the principal here is
allowed for decentralizes much decentralized
risk management possible allow people
to work allow them to
work safely allow them to
manage their risk of catching
the virus to treating the
virus still earning a livelihood
to put food on the
table for their families everyone
faces a different stack of
risks and in this equation
everyone is extremely different all
regions of different groups of
different stuff so I think
that that the principal here
is to devolve risk management
back down to the local
and business and family and
individual level to cool to
do that the wrestler so
that's when I grew up
in in England today was
educated at the state school
they would be a class
of between 30 and 40
kids and they be little
Lindsay not particularly doing that
world and Little Russell doing
extremely well but unfortunately they
couldn't say Russell you're such
a you're such a brat
champ we going to tailor
our education system towards you
and Lindsay you're a dunce
did we gonna tell if
a half-hour system differently than
we would with with with
Russel if you see what
he meant he has to
be able to put a
blanket approach and just like
that has to be I
suppose a blanket approach when
it comes to this this
virus until we learn more
about it I disagree I
mean I think that's what
we're actually learning is that
is that complex risk management
requires anything but a blanket
approach and to the extent
that you or your analogy
is that all applicable to
the situation it shows the
shows the weaknesses of public
schooling in it doesn't show
strength of public schooling that
shows that public schools often
did it wrong that they
apply you know the same
approach to the to the
wrong people to one of
the reasons why private schooling
and homeschooling is is is
so much more popular for
District Lindsay so if this
was 45 years ago and
I do agree with you
but I agree that the
education system When I Grow
Up was completely inadequate because
people weren't guided towards the
skills that they have they
weren't they weren't tested people
didn't pull me aside in
sale in zero-g quite good
at this but you're absolutely
crap at this but anyway
I'm going I'm just using
the analogy and I don't
see how the government can
I get your point and
you and I and I
get coming from III as
a staff stated my position
I think I think what
we're seeing is that you
know a farmer in the
Karoo and a street trader
in Soweto and you
know the Rural Eastern Cape
weather in the Cape Town
sea point middle-class person these
people all face very very
different realities very very different
risks some of them are
at risk of dying from
this virus because they're the
Hips very old with with
their significant other illnesses some
of them are Young and
Healthy and but Pro and
they need to get to
work and I need to
to be able to earn
income for their families everyone
faces radically different choice sit
here and I and I
just think that blanket policy
for 60 million people of
300 million people of 1.3
billion people I mean it
just doesn't fly as a
real world risk management strategy
and and I just hope
I mean I'm pessimistic about
this but I hope that
the lessons we learn from
all this is that we
can't just a react with
sheer panic at the site
of the first sight of
any any enemy and be
that we that deficit for
complex things we have to
just accept that we don't
have all the answers and
he said he don't have
all the answers are decentralized
level we can't keep relying
on one or two men
who we may or may
not like he lead countries
have to get us out
of the complex problems in
society is far far more
textured and nuanced than that
and I'm concerned that people
are running to Central government
once again and haven't learnt
the lessons of the past
in an hour and potentially
making a very big mistake
again now and then on
the present I'm just really
is an imperfect situation that
we have pretty agree that
South Africa for example cuz
that's what you're focusing on
the moment as a proud
South Africa is well as
South African is pretty that
way it is that we
need a bespoke a TaylorMade
approach so for example you
open up and you've got
a badge and says well
I'm healthy and I've been
tested so I can come
in and have a drink
in there some old sick
person who has got a
difference for the badge and
his may be vulnerable that
person can't come in I
don't think we have the
resources to apply the bespoke
approach Russell well now I
think we don't have the
resources to apply is what
we doing right now then
see we don't have the
resources to police 60 million
people in the draconian fashion
South Africa is called that
the entire military at a
cost of 5 billion in
expected that'll probably gross things
are very sticky and white
unwind very easily if we
defend 5 billion Rand on
immediately upscaling our hospital
in infrastructure building temperature silicone
and we wouldn't need a
military to to enforce the
draconian and locked out I
don't think we have the
resources at all at all
for what for what we're
trying to figure we shutting
down the economy and with
diminishing supply with diminishing a
pool of wealth the government
can therefore draw on 222
management process we now have
to feed the government now
is to feed hundreds of
thousands made in millions of
people and talking resource constraints
that where your resource constraints
are the other side of
the equation is is creating
very simple terrible sensible risk
protocols and allowing businesses to
open up and on and
operate and innovate around those
and the question is how
do you close the how
do you administer that you're
not like you administer every
other every other rule in
the country in perfectly yes
but remember that most law
enforcement happens by citizens themselves
people observe what businesses are
doing the Whistleblower on businesses
that are breaking the rules
agreed and you can have
age restrictions on on most
activities that involve public gatherings
United people above a certain
age 48 the timer for
June at Le can't participate
in those activities there are
many ways to do kind
of skin this cat and
I just think that the
approach should be taken as
is the real resource crunch
we don't have the resources
to do what we doing
in South Africa is very
taccone and I mean it
I was astonished when they
think it was something like
73000 troops will call up
I don't know how many
have managed to get onto
the street but I don't
quite understand that one do
you think them from what
you just said that you
would assign responsibility to
the individual and other words
we become good at self-regulation
I think there's many layers
to this Lindsay I don't
think it's about individual vs
state I think it's the
end of the show into
individual but it's also family
is also your your Suburb
and your community issue it's
the institutions of life that
exists outside of the purview
of the state you know
it's it's it's educational institutions
it's all that it's it's
all of life as businesses
you know if we we
I think had this assumption
that only the state can
I see the risks be
quantified lemon instead of identify
how bad they are done
and then she kind of
implement in at the strategy
that that everyone has to
follow and the truth is
that that all these other
institutions can manage risk extremely
effective in that the private
sector in many respects shows
how how well it can
manage risks we have specialised
risk management Industries know if
you're around insurance and then
the actual industry there are
many many Solutions and many
many different ways of approaching
problem and that's precisely how
complex problems should be approached
from different angles by many
different smart people what we
have done instead it is
we've centralised a few people
around the presidency were making
very very opaque decisions and
if they get one decision
wrong it's it's kind of
ruined it for everyone that's
a huge gamble this is
radical stuff that I think
Lindsay is is far more
moderate and essentially decentralizes
the risk and in it
and it makes a fellow
proud and far less likely
to have a calamitous are
come in my room so
you create a ministerial position
and you are at the
forefront of the candidacy and
you are going to be
the clovered 19 Minister or
potentially what would be your
portfolio what would you say
to Bedminster ramaposa how would
you go about it compared
to what the aliens theme
of done I think the
first thing you've got the
glue is that what you
don't know and you need
to sell them here that
coming out of government-to-government rustic
project I suppose and an
order of omniscience you need
to you need to talk
about what you don't know
and what you cannot achieve
and therefore why is
best achieved outside of the
purview of government and I
think what the government can
do as as an administrative
function as a as a
as a function that administers
rules and law and justice
and all these things is
I think in a in
a in a different type
of way that's the fed
by the best data that
that's coming out of the
global situation is to come
up with tolerable parameters around
which people can then invite
themselves and manage their own
risks so you know it
might be for example that
there's a very few set
of very simple rules like
a like age restrictions as
an age age cats on
on who can participate in
certain events search density cats
on on factories or on
certain kinds of economic activity
or on travel for exam
even even under these sorts
of Rules I believe that
the airline's could open up
again the Airlines could operate
it may be that if
you're over a certain age
you don't get to fly
it may be that the
airplane or less filled with
people but I think that
that ultimately you can make
some very simple parameters and
then you allow the allow
the private sector to allow
free Society to the nearest
from there and then you
administer that under due-process without
making all these new set
of ham-fisted rules and regulations
and I think since the
start of the lockdown situation
Lindsay we've gotten about 500
new pages of rules and
regulations and I can promise
you now that not all
about it 500 pages will
disappear when this is all
done yes I do think
that the government to serve
around the world are not
using it but certainly are
going to take advantage of
this current situation if for
example in Russia that the
amount of scrutiny that Russian
citizens around at the moment
won't disappear once covid-19 is
over that's an extreme of
it just in case you
do become the minister of
the coronavirus could you please
could you please make the
trade restrictions for people over
60 thank you whatever
holiday at some stage in
my life I don't trivialize
will be trite or dismissive
of of what's what's happening
at the moment but I
do find it fascinating when
it comes to the potential
investment trends when it comes
to social behaviour when it
comes to stupid things like
for example you haven't had
your haircut for 5 weeks
or so do you go
back to your old haircut
or do you grow your
hair long do fashion trends
change the social trends change
importantly does human behaviour changed
so they don't go to
work 5 days a week
before days a week you
only go to work one
day way to say hello
to a couple of people
and then go back to
find this prospect absolute flooring
guy literally no million-dollar
maybe billion-dollar question I think
I think the day you
know depending on how long
this lasts and depending on
how long we off I
guess in this posture of
Fear or cracked posture of
of of defensiveness around around
health risks yeah this is
I think I maybe some
fascinating little micro trains that
are going to merge and
it's just really hard to
pin down exactly with his
honour and a lot smarter
than me you're probably thinking
very hard about some the
stuff and jumping into some
of these trends early but
am I do I do
think about Alyssa think at
the bigger picture for me
I'm not I'm not sure
the coronavirus is a is
itself a a very significant
trend changer as much
as much as I think
it is a trend accelerator
so I have a feeling
that that the trend that
were in place and some
of the big things that
were in play store all
that were trending in place
how to craft a virus
might have been accelerated by
it I just think of
one example is he being
being that we we know
we were in a world
that was trending more towards
nationalism and more A restrictive
travel at border crossings all
these things were employed not
only in the US in
the UK but it's rearing
its head throughout Europe as
well and I think what's
really interesting about this is
if anything this is going
to accelerate the trend like
that it's going to make
people a little more wary
of just letting you know
anyone into the country it's
going to probably be an
accelerant barriers if you like
going up around the world
and certainly there's been no
love lost between the US
and china over this kind
of virus but again it's
an accelerant of a trend
that was already in play
some example we had central
banks looking to drop interest
rates print money coronavirus has
accelerated the trend in incredibly
and is made of examples
of given and I'm sure
someone really smart to give
an example of where a
trend may be changing in
may be turning around I'm
sure that you're probably also
there lurking somewhere but I
think paint accelerant is a
good way to think about
the same in the obvious
one is home deliveries I
mean it's it's it's so
simple and so obvious and
you see the Amazon share
price going to all-time record
highs despite the rest of
them are being under little
bit of pressure but I
mean it's almost too obvious
for that to be a
trend accelerants although it wasn't
place has been accelerated of
course well it's certainly not
obvious than in South Africa
Lindsay because I think with
the only country in the
world where e-commerce remains band
spirit thought I don't understand
that one and I don't
understand can show me something
is your alcohol
alcohol and cigarettes banned in
South Africa I don't quite
understand that is that because
of social social unrest or
something I think it's I
think it's good old South
African you know paternalism you
know the masses can't be
trusted with booze and Fugs
you know and I think
it's more of this sort
of Petty Petty bureaucracy what's
the NCR lapping up and
in many ways you know
replicating from the from the
bad old days so I
just think I think it's
we getting more of the
same I mean I mean
the the ban on e-commerce
is to my mind like
I can get my head
around the arguments for banning
alcohol I disagree with it
but I can sit up
here hear the arguments and
I don't I don't hear
the arguments on e-commerce if
you disallow people from going
and buying clothes for the
looming winter in South Africa
but you then also disallowed
him from getting them delivered
to the house which is
about the safest way I
can think from a virus
perspective of buying something will
Chris adjust adjust
beggars belief II you know
and and internet for the
only explanation is sheer pettiness
and and the power trip
that these bureaucrats are on
and I and I and
I think there's a lot
to be said for that
I think we're seeing a
real honest power trip here
in South Africa okay I'm
having too much fun to
curtail this Jack Russell so
I told me for the
next few minutes and give
me some Wisdom love you
all from outside of the
borders of the Republic of
South Africa and let's look
at couple of other countries
for example of the United
States of America with the
United Kingdom or even Italy
how do you think they've
handled it given the demographics
in the difference in Economic
and socio-economic profiles yeah
great question I I think
that's what I am happy
about is that countries have
taken different paths in
in dealing with this we
got the Sweden approached the
Taiwan approach is similar we've
got the the United talion
in Spanish approach is Germany's
a little bit different the
UK was the dove flowerland
in contrast and America is
is kind of quite unique
as well in the in
that it has this very
federalized system this very federalized
response so you've actually got
the different states within the
United States and taking very
different decisions around the Nether
lockdown response and soap as
a general comment I think
it's really good that we've
got these different different approaches
because because we going to
get some good data from
it that sounds very cold
and clinical but I think
it's going to help us
learn some some important as
we go beyond that's what
we seeing I think in
the data up until now
and of course you know
it's it's a it's a
minefield out there just a
tad bit but I would
say that if he had
to pull back the lens
what you seeing across all
these countries is that the
approach that everyone has taken
whether it's it's hard lockdown
immediate lockdown delayed as the
Sweden approach which is very
very little how many kind
of lockdown bit more social
distancing it seems to be
that the that the outcome
for the spread of the
disease and for Death is
by-and-large quite similar if it
doesn't seem to have a
huge impact now that you
know that might change we
made it more clarity on
that on that date as
we go through time but
I think that's an interesting
for the first conclusion that
was starting to see from
the from the date is
that it doesn't really matter
that much and and and
I think it's another question
is I suppose what does
matter because we are seeing
we are seeing some countries
experiencing very high death rates
like Italy like Spain portions
of the United States like
New York City and even
worse than Italy it's mostly
up in the North Sea
known Lombardi says scary very
very very regional specific which
is Which is kind of
a bit of a head-scratcher
as well and I guess
I guess but the one
thing we do know is
that is that a better
and and and underlying illnesses
and comorbidities is it is
a huge Factor so so
what I will say is
this Linda the final comment
on this is letting these
different approaches there for my
conclusion at this stage is
with these different approaches aren't
really making that much of
a difference from a from
a virus so did epidemiological
perspective but they certainly are
making a difference from an
economic perspective and what was
interesting to see was in
the month of March we
saw vehicle sales collapse across
the whole of Europe with
you're talking Spain or Italy
which were obvious ones but
even a place like Austria
France and Germany a country
that gets so it's a
vehicle sales numbers and therefore
as a proxy for Economic
activity holdups till 4 but
hold up far far better
than everyone else was intact
Sweden and what is not
surprising they haven't shut down
so so so what what's
going on here is this
Sweden may may be moving
into a situation where there
virus outcomes are no worse
than their than the Peer
group but that their economic
outcomes are certainly better and
I think that could be
a very very telling of
data point when this is
all said and done to
just finish it because Australia
is lifted its restrictions probably
more than most think business
has gone back to 40%
of what it was before
it goes back to your
point about individuals self-regulating
so people can go and
do what they used to
do but they're choosing not
to at the moment and
I live in the Netherlands
right now and I found
a hotel the other day
and I just wanted to
get some anecdotal evidence of
what's going on I thought
maybe the rates have gone
down from 159 to maybe
30-40 years and night just
to get their people through
the door but not a
bit of it in fact
they've gone up a little
bit and wool 5 weeks
ago I find this particular
hotel in the manager said
we've got one room occupied
at the moment now I
spoke to them 3 days
ago and said what's the
update he said we should
have got 50 rooms because
the Dutch people are so
fed up with not being
able to go out to
a restaurant that they're booking
a room at a hotel
just for a night in
order to get a meal
delivered to their room from
the kitchen to the sofa
that we can is the
sort of person didn't micro-trends
that tell me that something
is going to happen just
very final question I promise
it is the last one
I spoke to somebody who
says we gonna go back
to normal life as soon
as the restrictions are lifted
other people are saying no
this is changed everything where
do you stand that left
right or somewhere in the
middle yeah I did at
risk of the risk of
being at the fence but
I I I do kind
of feel it initially will
look look like something in
the middle there I think
that there's no doubt there's
no they say that that
everything gets lifted and we
go we click our fingers
and we go immediately back
to where we were I
agree with you on that
that's very very improbable and
where does the saying you're
seeing signs of that in
Austria an intern in practical
in the Netherlands very strange
kind of things going on
so I don't think we
go back to normal immediately
but equally I think that
the people who say this
changes everything you know that
this Changes Everything crowd I
think I was taking it
I think that's overstating the
case I think it's potentially
Changes Everything to the extent
that perpetuates government's right
and government's ability to to
civilian significantly control
how Society behaves in the
kind of things we can
do a one of the
things I'm worried about for
example we know we still
post 9/11 the ramping up
of airport security post covid
I can only imagine what
a nightmare airports are going
to become in terms of
not only in Judy feelings
but then health screenings and
phone calls travel I think
it is one of the
areas where we gonna see
this change you know most
lasting and most frustrating probably
I think it's going to
be very very onerous and
ends in an unenviable to
travel now to move through
these busy airports I think
it's going to be a
bit of a nightmare so
so that you know that
those books of various concerns
me and I suppose there's
a few more that I
do worry about I think
it'll take us a few
months to get over but
normal life can resume you
know the biggest the biggest
thing for me is that
people have to demand and
and fight for their their
civil liberties again when all
this blows over the last
thing we want is to
be left with very very
overbearing sort of soft tyranny
that's a real concern
I have and I hope
that people can spot that
risk and and try to
resist that listen to eat
in the words of the
poet Robert Frost very very
simple statement he made life
does on WhatsApp thank you
so much for your wisdom
server celebrity the founder of
ATM macro advisors in the
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