WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:04.551 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.133 --> 00:00:08.614 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:08.614 --> 00:00:08.716 shadow. 4 00:00:08.716 --> 00:00:14.583 And as always on a Thursday, I've got the double-headed Dream Team edition of Viv 5 00:00:14.583 --> 00:00:16.583 Govender from RAND Swiss 6 00:00:16.583 --> 00:00:16.919 and David Shapira from Sasson Securities. 7 00:00:17.309 --> 00:00:22.872 Viv's in a car, David's in New York, I'm chilling here in the Netherlands. 8 00:00:23.137 --> 00:00:26.387 And the market's taking a bit of a chill as well, David. 9 00:00:26.450 --> 00:00:29.419 Start with you on that one, because there's no data coming out from the 10 00:00:29.419 --> 00:00:29.620 government. 11 00:00:29.620 --> 00:00:31.721 Because there is no government in the United States. 12 00:00:32.940 --> 00:00:33.640 No. 13 00:00:34.920 --> 00:00:38.022 You know, you laugh about that, or I laugh about that, 14 00:00:38.163 --> 00:00:43.444 because at the moment they are in shutdown and the fight continues. 15 00:00:44.100 --> 00:00:46.897 And neither side wants to give up. 16 00:00:47.397 --> 00:00:52.241 And of course the Democrats, which is no longer a party, and we can talk about 17 00:00:52.241 --> 00:00:52.409 that. 18 00:00:52.409 --> 00:00:55.053 I'd love to hear Viv's views on that and just discuss it. 19 00:00:55.506 --> 00:00:58.506 But at the moment they're just floundering. 20 00:00:58.880 --> 00:01:05.428 And this just gives them a little bit of leeway in the sense that they want 21 00:01:05.428 --> 00:01:07.428 concessions 22 00:01:07.428 --> 00:01:10.374 on health care, which was taken away completely by Mr. 23 00:01:10.428 --> 00:01:11.128 Trump. 24 00:01:11.569 --> 00:01:17.514 He wanted to get Obama and he's finally getting it by removing so many benefits 25 00:01:19.858 --> 00:01:20.558 in health care. 26 00:01:20.558 --> 00:01:21.983 So that's the bargaining tool. 27 00:01:21.984 --> 00:01:26.249 In the meantime, the fighting goes on backwards and forwards. 28 00:01:26.593 --> 00:01:27.468 And to be honest. 29 00:01:27.840 --> 00:01:31.084 The market doesn't care, it just moves its own way. 30 00:01:33.287 --> 00:01:37.427 You don't see any reflection in the market, in fact, of any geopolitical news. 31 00:01:37.834 --> 00:01:43.256 But when you look at this, Lindsay, and you look at the Democrats, 32 00:01:44.756 --> 00:01:50.802 they're good at regional level or municipal level or state level, whatever 33 00:01:50.802 --> 00:01:50.862 it is. 34 00:01:51.302 --> 00:01:55.185 But as a federal party, There's just no one there. 35 00:01:55.186 --> 00:01:56.826 It's like the Conservative Party in the UK. 36 00:01:57.008 --> 00:01:57.990 It's just fallen away. 37 00:01:58.029 --> 00:01:58.927 It's a non-entity. 38 00:01:59.029 --> 00:02:00.470 Now, Viv, would you agree with that? 39 00:02:02.131 --> 00:02:05.896 Yeah, look, I mean, I think the problem with the Democrats is they don't have a 40 00:02:05.896 --> 00:02:06.175 vision. 41 00:02:06.459 --> 00:02:11.638 So, for instance, I mean, Trump puts up, you know, not paying civil servants. 42 00:02:11.748 --> 00:02:16.279 And then Bernie Sanders comes out and says, maybe we shouldn't pay the military 43 00:02:16.279 --> 00:02:18.279 and air traffic controllers. 44 00:02:18.279 --> 00:02:22.529 I mean, you will have no sympathy among anybody if you're not paying your soldiers 45 00:02:22.529 --> 00:02:24.529 that are putting your lives at risk or people that are. 46 00:02:24.529 --> 00:02:26.529 controlling the planes, you know what I mean? 47 00:02:26.529 --> 00:02:28.529 That makes no sense. 48 00:02:28.529 --> 00:02:28.936 And then you have, you know, the people, then they say, what we need is our own 49 00:02:28.936 --> 00:02:29.152 Trump. 50 00:02:29.152 --> 00:02:35.678 And so they're putting up Gavin Newsom, who is, you know, he may be on the 51 00:02:35.678 --> 00:02:37.678 Democrat side, but he's as slimy as Trump is, you know what I mean? 52 00:02:38.522 --> 00:02:44.952 That's high praise indeed, to be as slimy as Trump. Yes, Trump is. 53 00:02:44.953 --> 00:02:50.936 I mean, he's one of those guys that was going on, you know, dinner parties and 54 00:02:50.936 --> 00:02:52.936 stuff when he had California locked out, 55 00:02:52.936 --> 00:02:54.936 famously. 56 00:02:54.936 --> 00:02:55.129 So, I mean, you need a vision. 57 00:02:55.188 --> 00:03:00.813 And unfortunately, what's going to happen is you're going to have somebody like a 58 00:03:00.813 --> 00:03:02.813 Mamdani who will probably, 59 00:03:02.813 --> 00:03:04.828 if he was actually born in the U.S., be the new star of the Democratic Party. 60 00:03:04.891 --> 00:03:06.367 He's about to be mayor of New York. 61 00:03:07.313 --> 00:03:12.492 He's about to, you know, take over the largest, you know, most powerful city in 62 00:03:12.492 --> 00:03:12.739 the U.S. 63 00:03:13.414 --> 00:03:18.852 But I think if you look at, for instance, what's happening with regards to the 64 00:03:19.508 --> 00:03:21.461 European elections, what's happening in Japan. 65 00:03:22.432 --> 00:03:26.895 To be honest, unfortunately, you'll have to say that, you know, 66 00:03:27.117 --> 00:03:30.184 we're going to go to extremes because the mainstream parties are not giving you a 67 00:03:30.184 --> 00:03:30.440 solution. 68 00:03:30.520 --> 00:03:31.442 And that's kind of what Trump is. 69 00:03:31.481 --> 00:03:34.981 He's an extreme reaction to the Republicans not giving a solution to their 70 00:03:34.981 --> 00:03:35.204 voters. 71 00:03:35.567 --> 00:03:40.246 And unfortunately, we're going to have these crazy people, you know, being in 72 00:03:40.246 --> 00:03:42.246 charge going forward, 73 00:03:42.246 --> 00:03:47.043 unless we can have someone more sensible and centrist, which I don't know how the 74 00:03:47.043 --> 00:03:49.043 current system was that personally brings them into power. 75 00:03:49.043 --> 00:03:51.043 Yeah. 76 00:03:51.043 --> 00:03:54.654 It is a difficult one and it plays right into Trump's hands, of course. 77 00:03:54.655 --> 00:03:55.355 Yes, go on. 78 00:03:55.795 --> 00:03:59.517 Viv, I mentioned this to Lindsay earlier on in the week. 79 00:04:00.478 --> 00:04:07.416 What I'm finding here is that people who were moderate and were anti-Trump and were 80 00:04:07.416 --> 00:04:09.416 Democrats 81 00:04:09.416 --> 00:04:11.416 are now, 82 00:04:11.416 --> 00:04:15.572 I think they despise the left more than they do the right and are shifting more 83 00:04:15.635 --> 00:04:16.400 towards Trump. 84 00:04:16.928 --> 00:04:22.094 And you're seeing that in Wall Street, you know, if I can define Wall Street as being 85 00:04:22.094 --> 00:04:24.094 the investment community. 86 00:04:24.094 --> 00:04:25.734 They're quite happy with where things are at the moment. 87 00:04:26.234 --> 00:04:31.406 You know, if you read Bill Ackman's tweets, I mean, he's come out fully in 88 00:04:31.406 --> 00:04:33.406 favor of Trump. 89 00:04:33.406 --> 00:04:34.578 He's a big Trump supporter at the moment in every respect. 90 00:04:35.609 --> 00:04:40.750 And those are chaps who certainly, you know, wouldn't have voted or supported 91 00:04:40.750 --> 00:04:40.809 him. 92 00:04:40.812 --> 00:04:41.812 Yes, there were chaps. 93 00:04:42.156 --> 00:04:44.015 There were certain hedge fund managers who... 94 00:04:44.580 --> 00:04:51.228 who were Republican and supported Trump. But generally, New York was, I think, more 95 00:04:51.228 --> 00:04:53.228 left than right. 96 00:04:53.228 --> 00:04:55.228 But they're going right. 97 00:04:55.228 --> 00:04:59.158 And that's simply because There's just no one standing up for the Democrats or 98 00:04:59.158 --> 00:05:01.158 coming with any plausible 99 00:05:01.158 --> 00:05:03.158 policies. 100 00:05:03.158 --> 00:05:05.087 We could talk about the fight in New York, because I watch it all the time. 101 00:05:05.603 --> 00:05:07.666 When I say front page, I mean you watch the TV. 102 00:05:09.166 --> 00:05:11.978 There's a massive battle going on now at the moment. 103 00:05:11.979 --> 00:05:15.994 The youth, as you say, all supporting Mamdani. 104 00:05:18.494 --> 00:05:22.025 Also, the coma coming out there is the opposition. 105 00:05:22.487 --> 00:05:23.468 But he's tainted. 106 00:05:23.528 --> 00:05:24.669 He's tainted from COVID. 107 00:05:24.688 --> 00:05:26.251 He's tainted from other things. 108 00:05:27.973 --> 00:05:28.692 I mean, not just COVID. 109 00:05:28.693 --> 00:05:32.134 I mean, there's also that harassment allegation against him as well. 110 00:05:33.180 --> 00:05:38.938 And what amazes me about Cuomo is he's basically going after Mamdani as being a 111 00:05:38.938 --> 00:05:40.938 nepotism baby. 112 00:05:40.938 --> 00:05:41.907 Cuomo's father was the governor. 113 00:05:42.907 --> 00:05:43.607 Yeah, I know. 114 00:05:43.607 --> 00:05:46.469 It's the craziest thing I've ever seen in my life. 115 00:05:47.657 --> 00:05:49.079 Well, this is US politics. 116 00:05:49.110 --> 00:05:49.891 I mean, it's... 117 00:05:50.347 --> 00:05:54.950 When you watch it unfold in front of you, it's quite remarkable. 118 00:05:54.974 --> 00:05:58.872 You know, it's, I watch with, you know, 119 00:05:59.075 --> 00:06:02.075 almost it's humor and they change their mind. 120 00:06:03.599 --> 00:06:08.263 Comer wanted to close down Rikers Island, you know, the infamous prison. 121 00:06:08.763 --> 00:06:10.059 Now he wants to keep it open. 122 00:06:10.169 --> 00:06:10.869 Why? 123 00:06:10.869 --> 00:06:12.856 Because Mamdani wants to close it down and so on. 124 00:06:13.122 --> 00:06:19.216 Mamdani wants free, you know, everything must be free, you know, no more 125 00:06:19.216 --> 00:06:21.216 meritocracy and also free. 126 00:06:21.216 --> 00:06:22.146 Transport-free grocery, you name it. 127 00:06:22.246 --> 00:06:27.131 Anyway, so you watch this all happening and say, I think I've seen this before, 128 00:06:27.131 --> 00:06:29.131 you know, 129 00:06:29.131 --> 00:06:30.533 maybe 30 years ago in South Africa, the same kind of battle. 130 00:06:30.611 --> 00:06:31.311 But anyway. 131 00:06:31.494 --> 00:06:34.377 All right, so we've got politics. 132 00:06:35.197 --> 00:06:37.799 As I briefly said there, it plays into 133 00:06:38.361 --> 00:06:45.283 Donald Trump's hands and it's very sad that someone so mediocre can be the most 134 00:06:45.283 --> 00:06:47.283 powerful man in the 135 00:06:47.283 --> 00:06:49.283 world. 136 00:06:49.283 --> 00:06:51.283 But anyway. 137 00:06:51.283 --> 00:06:53.283 That's one thing. 138 00:06:53.283 --> 00:06:55.283 The other thing is the market, which has been quite extraordinary since we last 139 00:06:55.283 --> 00:06:57.283 spoke as a threesome here. 140 00:06:57.283 --> 00:06:59.283 And a lot of it is to do with the Federal Reserve. 141 00:06:59.283 --> 00:07:02.031 AI aside, let's have a look and see what the notes from the minutes of the FOMC 142 00:07:02.031 --> 00:07:04.031 said. 143 00:07:04.031 --> 00:07:05.047 The meeting was on the 16th and 17th of September. 144 00:07:05.359 --> 00:07:06.797 The notes came out last night. 145 00:07:07.172 --> 00:07:13.406 It says the FOMC is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and 146 00:07:13.406 --> 00:07:15.406 returning inflation to its 2% 147 00:07:15.406 --> 00:07:17.406 objective. 148 00:07:17.406 --> 00:07:19.406 I don't know whether they can have their cake and eat it, 149 00:07:19.406 --> 00:07:21.963 but I had a very good chat with a fund manager from London this morning. 150 00:07:22.541 --> 00:07:27.424 And he said that this is actually tailwinds for the equity market. 151 00:07:27.971 --> 00:07:34.510 Viv, since you've been away, you've seen the market, as we have, go to all-time 152 00:07:34.510 --> 00:07:36.510 record highs almost every day. 153 00:07:36.510 --> 00:07:37.432 And this is a tailwind, this chap said. 154 00:07:37.479 --> 00:07:38.179 Would you agree? 155 00:07:38.179 --> 00:07:41.026 Or has it already been factored in, i.e. 156 00:07:41.338 --> 00:07:42.135 two more cuts? 157 00:07:43.983 --> 00:07:48.506 I know you said no AI, but I mean, apart from the FT, 80% 158 00:07:49.268 --> 00:07:53.131 plus of growth in the US stock market this year has been AI-related stocks. 159 00:07:53.810 --> 00:07:59.420 40% of US growth, GDP growth period, overall economic growth, is AI-related. 160 00:07:59.842 --> 00:08:00.542 You know what I mean? 161 00:08:00.764 --> 00:08:02.154 And possibly it is undercounting it. 162 00:08:02.155 --> 00:08:05.842 It could be as much as half of all US growth this year has been AI-related. 163 00:08:06.842 --> 00:08:09.482 So, yeah, what's happening with the Fed, I think it's obviously important. 164 00:08:10.170 --> 00:08:12.248 But what's happening also with the spending that we're seeing. 165 00:08:12.264 --> 00:08:19.034 And Also, since we last talked, I mean, there's kind of like these circular deals 166 00:08:19.034 --> 00:08:21.034 being done all the time. 167 00:08:21.034 --> 00:08:23.034 Yeah. 168 00:08:23.034 --> 00:08:25.416 Where, you know, OpenAI is doing deals with people where I don't know exactly who 169 00:08:25.416 --> 00:08:27.416 buys what and who gets what. 170 00:08:27.416 --> 00:08:28.885 But it doesn't seem like actually any real economic activity is happening. 171 00:08:29.729 --> 00:08:36.166 But it translates into hundreds of billions of dollars of extra valuations 172 00:08:36.166 --> 00:08:38.166 for NVIDIA and AMD and Oracle, et cetera. 173 00:08:38.166 --> 00:08:41.729 And, you know, even we have XAI getting into these deals as well with NVIDIA at 174 00:08:41.729 --> 00:08:41.991 the moment. 175 00:08:42.399 --> 00:08:45.300 So it feels extremely, extremely bubbly. 176 00:08:45.679 --> 00:08:51.998 I mean, my AI portfolio, which I'm, you know, guys I know I run, is up 20% since 177 00:08:51.998 --> 00:08:53.998 the start of September. 178 00:08:54.724 --> 00:08:59.201 So you said a word there that David, I could feel David's shudder there, 179 00:08:59.201 --> 00:08:59.245 actually. 180 00:08:59.576 --> 00:09:02.060 David switched off when you said the word bubbly. 181 00:09:02.388 --> 00:09:08.670 Now, because I keep on saying it to him, he says, no, not until further notice, not 182 00:09:08.670 --> 00:09:10.670 until I'm otherwise advised. 183 00:09:10.670 --> 00:09:12.670 Will I do anything about it? 184 00:09:12.670 --> 00:09:14.670 And that's quite right. 185 00:09:14.670 --> 00:09:16.128 But just quickly staying with you, Viv, I gave David a question on Monday and I 186 00:09:16.128 --> 00:09:16.528 said, 187 00:09:16.690 --> 00:09:21.671 are you happy that there's this M&A and corporate activity going on? 188 00:09:21.968 --> 00:09:22.668 There's so much. 189 00:09:22.710 --> 00:09:28.014 I saw a graph today, a chart today, and it had one of those graphs, sorry, 190 00:09:28.093 --> 00:09:34.233 charts with lots of circles in it and lines going off from one circle, which is 191 00:09:34.233 --> 00:09:34.339 a company, 192 00:09:34.374 --> 00:09:35.436 to another company. 193 00:09:35.795 --> 00:09:37.298 And it was incredibly complicated, 194 00:09:37.317 --> 00:09:43.650 but it was just the AI deals that had been done by the companies that you mentioned, 195 00:09:43.650 --> 00:09:45.650 you know, 196 00:09:45.650 --> 00:09:49.302 AI Chat, GPT, Oracle, Intel, you name it. 197 00:09:49.357 --> 00:09:50.661 It's so confusing. 198 00:09:50.724 --> 00:09:53.974 But is that a good sign or is it a sign of the top? 199 00:09:55.691 --> 00:09:58.014 Look, I mean, here's the thing to understand as well. 200 00:09:58.735 --> 00:10:01.496 The people that are making these decisions are not making economic decisions. 201 00:10:02.176 --> 00:10:03.360 Listen to what Mark Zuckerberg says. 202 00:10:03.379 --> 00:10:04.379 Look at what Larry Page says. 203 00:10:04.403 --> 00:10:08.324 Look at what Elon Musk and some others. 204 00:10:08.340 --> 00:10:09.801 These are the guys driving this stuff forward. 205 00:10:10.168 --> 00:10:16.332 I mean, Larry Page comes out and says he's willing to risk bankruptcy in order to not 206 00:10:16.332 --> 00:10:18.332 miss out on the AI race. 207 00:10:18.332 --> 00:10:23.551 Zuckerberg talks about, you know, we're spending a couple hundred billion dollars 208 00:10:23.551 --> 00:10:25.551 as a price worth paying. 209 00:10:25.551 --> 00:10:26.318 in order to make sure that he basically is in that race. 210 00:10:27.279 --> 00:10:31.501 So these guys are operating on a very kind of emotional kind of level. 211 00:10:31.783 --> 00:10:37.669 And so in that scenario, you could find, you know, like the chip companies, which 212 00:10:37.669 --> 00:10:39.669 is like, you know, one of the best performers out there doing really, really 213 00:10:39.669 --> 00:10:41.669 well. 214 00:10:41.669 --> 00:10:42.935 But the thing that gets me is that when you have these circular deals and the 215 00:10:42.935 --> 00:10:44.935 market reacts so positively to that, 216 00:10:44.935 --> 00:10:49.404 you've got to probably say that, you know, irrespective of the underlying technology, 217 00:10:49.404 --> 00:10:51.404 which I still believe is progressing. 218 00:10:51.404 --> 00:10:51.747 I mean, Sora 2 is amazing if you haven't used it. 219 00:10:53.391 --> 00:10:59.838 still an amazing technology but why is the market rewarding nvidia and amd with deals 220 00:10:59.838 --> 00:11:01.838 that don't where they're 221 00:11:01.838 --> 00:11:06.280 effectively inverted commerce selling stuff to uh it goes openly without open 222 00:11:06.280 --> 00:11:08.280 air actually paying for it doesn't make it makes sense to me 223 00:11:08.280 --> 00:11:11.702 okay i think i think they have i think they just fund us you 224 00:11:11.703 --> 00:11:18.280 know i don't think open ai has the money but it's got the skill and that's all 225 00:11:18.280 --> 00:11:20.280 they're doing is funding it yes it comes back at them 226 00:11:20.280 --> 00:11:25.053 and it you know probably reduces their margins because of the circular deal, 227 00:11:25.715 --> 00:11:26.415 as you explained. 228 00:11:26.416 --> 00:11:28.178 But you know what? 229 00:11:31.740 --> 00:11:37.623 When you read Bezos or listen to Bezos, listen to David Solomon, and again, I'm 230 00:11:37.623 --> 00:11:39.623 repeating myself on this, 231 00:11:39.623 --> 00:11:42.475 we know there are going to be catastrophes. 232 00:11:42.490 --> 00:11:43.834 Some people are not going to make it. 233 00:11:45.193 --> 00:11:48.693 Throughout the development of technology, and I'm going back to even the... 234 00:11:49.147 --> 00:11:50.829 the uh you know the 235 00:11:51.528 --> 00:11:58.399 1850s the industrial revolution uh there's always people who are going to fall by the 236 00:11:58.399 --> 00:12:00.399 wayside but there will be winners as well 237 00:12:00.399 --> 00:12:05.931 and big winners and you know and and and i think that's up to the businesses to keep 238 00:12:05.931 --> 00:12:07.931 ahead of where of of 239 00:12:07.931 --> 00:12:08.931 the competition and always be at the forefront this 240 00:12:09.040 --> 00:12:15.478 will create yes there will be some bubble there will be companies that fall by you 241 00:12:15.478 --> 00:12:17.478 know that that that fall by the way 242 00:12:17.478 --> 00:12:18.853 but i mean at the end you can't ignore what's happening. 243 00:12:19.463 --> 00:12:26.251 And you can't ignore that, you know, all this development is taking place and that 244 00:12:26.251 --> 00:12:28.251 we will get the benefits down the 245 00:12:28.251 --> 00:12:30.251 line. 246 00:12:30.251 --> 00:12:32.935 It's not going to happen immediately and we can't foresee it happening down, you 247 00:12:32.935 --> 00:12:34.935 know, but I think every day. 248 00:12:34.935 --> 00:12:40.247 And, you know, Viv, you know, it was quite interesting and also just read an article 249 00:12:40.247 --> 00:12:42.247 on the application of 250 00:12:42.247 --> 00:12:44.247 this. 251 00:12:44.247 --> 00:12:44.825 What happens is that, yeah, the firm doesn't apply. 252 00:12:45.310 --> 00:12:48.357 You know, if you go into an accounting firm or whatever firm. 253 00:12:49.187 --> 00:12:51.810 But singularly, people apply it. 254 00:12:51.849 --> 00:12:57.657 You know, individuals are applying it and using their minds and using the tools that 255 00:12:57.657 --> 00:12:59.657 are available to them. 256 00:12:59.657 --> 00:13:04.485 So although the firm hasn't got an AI policy or might be looking at one, 257 00:13:05.103 --> 00:13:11.071 individuals along the way, in terms of doing what they do on a day-to-day basis, 258 00:13:11.071 --> 00:13:13.071 are starting to use these tools. 259 00:13:13.071 --> 00:13:17.509 So it's very difficult to measure, you know, what the benefits are on looking at 260 00:13:17.509 --> 00:13:19.509 a firm and saying, 261 00:13:19.509 --> 00:13:21.509 what's your strategy and so on. 262 00:13:21.509 --> 00:13:23.496 And I know from my own daily, in fact, at the moment, 263 00:13:24.176 --> 00:13:27.438 I'm really trying to ask a lot of questions on gold. 264 00:13:28.203 --> 00:13:30.743 Not gold, but we'll come to it in a sec. 265 00:13:31.039 --> 00:13:31.739 Yeah. 266 00:13:31.739 --> 00:13:35.860 Just on what this all means, you know, particularly from a reserve point of view. 267 00:13:35.922 --> 00:13:42.657 Because remember, America still values its gold holdings at $42.22 an ounce, 268 00:13:43.094 --> 00:13:48.094 which was, I think, goes back to the 1970s. You know, that was the official 269 00:13:48.094 --> 00:13:50.094 price of gold. 270 00:13:50.094 --> 00:13:51.379 So it's never revalued its reserves to 4,000. 271 00:13:51.939 --> 00:13:54.722 So I'm trying to work out the consequences of that or the benefits. 272 00:13:55.121 --> 00:13:59.664 So, you know, the dollar should actually be the strongest currency around if you're 273 00:13:59.664 --> 00:14:01.664 looking at gold. 274 00:14:01.664 --> 00:14:03.914 But anyway, so what am I using AI, you know, 275 00:14:04.586 --> 00:14:11.570 to search and to find all the statistics, which would take me a mountain of time to 276 00:14:11.570 --> 00:14:13.570 do it if I had to go through Google or 277 00:14:13.570 --> 00:14:15.570 whatever. 278 00:14:15.570 --> 00:14:17.570 It's fascinating, actually. 279 00:14:17.570 --> 00:14:19.570 I was going to ask you this question, both of you. 280 00:14:19.570 --> 00:14:21.570 Sorry, Viv. 281 00:14:21.570 --> 00:14:23.570 You can digest this question while you come up with your next point. 282 00:14:23.570 --> 00:14:26.745 Do you use AI for anything else than asking questions? 283 00:14:27.042 --> 00:14:33.097 Is there any other aspect of your life that you knowingly use AI and wouldn't 284 00:14:33.097 --> 00:14:35.097 have used AI a year ago? 285 00:14:35.097 --> 00:14:36.878 Viv, you were going to say something, and then we'll answer that question. 286 00:14:37.909 --> 00:14:39.784 We actually had a discussion in the office this week. 287 00:14:39.862 --> 00:14:40.878 And it's an interesting idea. 288 00:14:41.315 --> 00:14:45.883 Like, for instance, I know an advocate that's using AI to basically double his 289 00:14:45.883 --> 00:14:45.962 workflow. 290 00:14:46.285 --> 00:14:51.192 But the question, he doesn't double the amount of, like, advocate services that's 291 00:14:51.192 --> 00:14:53.192 required in the country, you know what I mean? 292 00:14:53.192 --> 00:14:54.676 So he's just charging a lot more for AI doing the work for him. 293 00:14:55.846 --> 00:14:57.528 And that's probably what's happening out here as well. 294 00:14:57.569 --> 00:15:03.598 So let's just say you have many more analysts out there, but analysts are 295 00:15:03.598 --> 00:15:05.598 basically a zero-sum game because you're just buying and somebody else is selling. 296 00:15:05.598 --> 00:15:06.278 And so it doesn't really increase economic activity. 297 00:15:06.840 --> 00:15:09.301 The same thing applies to a lot of the stuff that current AI does. 298 00:15:09.317 --> 00:15:13.645 It makes your life easier, but if you have everybody doing the same thing, the actual 299 00:15:13.645 --> 00:15:15.645 net effect is zero. 300 00:15:15.645 --> 00:15:21.317 The only way AI is really going to have an impact on the global economy, which it 301 00:15:21.317 --> 00:15:23.317 needs to have, like I've always said, if you look at the amount of money being 302 00:15:23.317 --> 00:15:25.317 spent now, 303 00:15:25.317 --> 00:15:27.317 you're talking about 20 times that amount of money at least has to come through. 304 00:15:27.317 --> 00:15:29.317 in terms of GDP growth to justify it. 305 00:15:29.317 --> 00:15:34.569 The only things that are really going to move AI in terms of actually increasing 306 00:15:34.569 --> 00:15:36.569 GDP growth in that level is either scientific discovery or 307 00:15:36.569 --> 00:15:37.592 manufacturing, you know, mining, that kind of stuff. 308 00:15:38.428 --> 00:15:42.022 Making more, like, I mean, technically, you go out and you make a video with Sora. 309 00:15:42.615 --> 00:15:43.475 How does it add to GDP? 310 00:15:43.584 --> 00:15:45.662 How does it add to, you know, productivity for the world? 311 00:15:46.115 --> 00:15:46.912 It's very useful. 312 00:15:46.959 --> 00:15:48.600 It replaces a studio out there. 313 00:15:49.178 --> 00:15:53.522 And so, you know, we have more videos out in the world, but it'll really increase 314 00:15:53.522 --> 00:15:55.522 productivity in the world. 315 00:15:55.522 --> 00:15:57.522 Same thing with analysis. 316 00:15:57.522 --> 00:15:58.746 I mean, David's reading stuff with gold, 317 00:15:59.168 --> 00:16:05.051 but he's actually trading with somebody else who's also using the AI to basically 318 00:16:05.051 --> 00:16:07.051 figure out the price of gold, you know what I mean? 319 00:16:07.051 --> 00:16:07.754 And so both people are armed to a high extent. 320 00:16:07.778 --> 00:16:10.762 The world's economic value hasn't increased. 321 00:16:11.215 --> 00:16:17.840 So we need to see AI translate into physical world, manufacturing, or in the 322 00:16:17.840 --> 00:16:19.840 world of symbols, 323 00:16:19.840 --> 00:16:21.840 scientific discovery. 324 00:16:21.840 --> 00:16:22.262 And we have not yet seen that come through and the kind of reason we need to... 325 00:16:22.718 --> 00:16:29.598 see that come through is because we need to have those kind of like developments to 326 00:16:29.598 --> 00:16:31.598 justify the current spending we're seeing one thing 327 00:16:31.598 --> 00:16:36.504 that uh one thing that i've noticed from a personal point of view is that uh as a as 328 00:16:36.504 --> 00:16:38.504 a broadcaster as a 329 00:16:38.504 --> 00:16:43.426 podcast i've got this big clunky desk in front of me now i'm looking at it it's 330 00:16:43.426 --> 00:16:45.426 been bolted into a suitcase for ease of 331 00:16:45.426 --> 00:16:50.067 travel well i thought it was ease of travel and it's it's got all the sort of 332 00:16:50.067 --> 00:16:52.067 buttons that you see you would see in a music studio and 333 00:16:52.067 --> 00:16:54.067 faders and all that sort of thing. 334 00:16:54.067 --> 00:16:57.809 And it was made for me by a technician from the SABC, what, 10, 12 years ago, 335 00:16:57.809 --> 00:16:59.809 something like that. 336 00:16:59.809 --> 00:17:01.809 And it served me really well. 337 00:17:01.809 --> 00:17:06.309 Now I could buy the thing that does exactly the same as this in like the size 338 00:17:06.309 --> 00:17:08.309 of a 339 00:17:08.309 --> 00:17:10.309 tablet, for example. 340 00:17:10.309 --> 00:17:12.285 And it's probably going to cost me about $500 in total. 341 00:17:12.426 --> 00:17:19.067 And I could have started from nothing as a podcaster on day one just buying this 342 00:17:19.113 --> 00:17:20.473 stuff off the shelf. 343 00:17:20.910 --> 00:17:25.872 And the other thing that's interesting is that there are AI programs now to edit. 344 00:17:26.211 --> 00:17:30.231 At the moment, I send my stuff to an editor in Cape Town, 345 00:17:30.590 --> 00:17:33.754 and she gets all the ums and the ahs out. 346 00:17:33.809 --> 00:17:37.957 And if it's a half-hour interview, it takes her 45 minutes to edit it. 347 00:17:38.457 --> 00:17:43.332 This is a program that takes out all the ums and ahs for you, takes out the 348 00:17:43.332 --> 00:17:45.332 background noise. 349 00:17:45.332 --> 00:17:48.036 So if David's budgerigar, for example, starts tweeting in the background. 350 00:17:48.578 --> 00:17:55.421 background linda yeah exactly your wife that's what i was going to say it'll take 351 00:17:55.421 --> 00:17:57.421 the noise out it's fascinating so i could get rid of if 352 00:17:57.421 --> 00:18:02.358 i was if i was a nasty person i could get rid of my editor in cape town and just do 353 00:18:02.358 --> 00:18:04.358 it myself and it would say it would save me money 354 00:18:04.358 --> 00:18:07.257 and the question was david do you use it from for anything else apart from writing 355 00:18:07.319 --> 00:18:10.522 speeches and researching gold well 356 00:18:10.601 --> 00:18:17.460 i think that's my you know that's my job so i use it extensively look i'll be 357 00:18:17.460 --> 00:18:17.505 honest with 358 00:18:17.507 --> 00:18:20.734 you You can't just take what you get back. 359 00:18:21.334 --> 00:18:26.519 You know, in many cases, the information is old, doesn't look right, and you've got 360 00:18:26.519 --> 00:18:28.519 to keep searching. 361 00:18:28.519 --> 00:18:31.082 They do give you the references, you know, and you go back to the references, 362 00:18:31.105 --> 00:18:34.683 and sometimes it is a little old and not useful. 363 00:18:35.089 --> 00:18:38.511 But I think where it does come useful is if you sit through a transcript. 364 00:18:38.777 --> 00:18:42.511 You know, for example, today, as you mentioned, it edits meetings, 365 00:18:43.043 --> 00:18:46.574 and it gives you the minutes and action plans straight away. 366 00:18:46.946 --> 00:18:48.347 literally straight away. 367 00:18:48.667 --> 00:18:52.191 You don't have to employ somebody to go through the minutes, you know. 368 00:18:52.593 --> 00:18:59.218 And likewise, I will get a transcript, which I'm going to do now, of the Ferrari 369 00:18:59.218 --> 00:19:01.218 results and say, okay, 370 00:19:01.218 --> 00:19:01.820 what are the, you know, what are the highlights? 371 00:19:01.859 --> 00:19:02.929 What should I look out for? 372 00:19:02.976 --> 00:19:03.676 And so on. 373 00:19:03.676 --> 00:19:07.226 And it comes back and gives you a summary almost immediately. 374 00:19:07.585 --> 00:19:08.492 Now, a lot of, 375 00:19:12.163 --> 00:19:12.863 what would you call them? 376 00:19:12.863 --> 00:19:15.226 A lot of platforms, sorry. 377 00:19:15.662 --> 00:19:16.963 are already putting this in. 378 00:19:17.344 --> 00:19:23.749 And you'll get a side column that will say, if you want to summarize what was 379 00:19:23.749 --> 00:19:25.749 discussed, blah, blah, 380 00:19:25.749 --> 00:19:27.749 we'll do it straight away. 381 00:19:27.749 --> 00:19:30.319 So they're even providing that kind of summary and issue. 382 00:19:30.334 --> 00:19:35.881 So you can get through what you want to in a fast way, especially if you've got to 383 00:19:35.881 --> 00:19:37.881 digest a lot of information. 384 00:19:37.881 --> 00:19:41.163 And where it suits you, you then go and start probing in a little more detail. 385 00:19:41.366 --> 00:19:42.209 Because you know that... 386 00:19:42.546 --> 00:19:47.130 When results come out, Lindsay, there can be so much nonsense and so much 387 00:19:47.130 --> 00:19:49.130 superfluous stuff. 388 00:19:49.130 --> 00:19:52.153 So it frees up time for you for more productive things or more productive 389 00:19:52.153 --> 00:19:54.153 things for you as a person, i.e. 390 00:19:54.153 --> 00:19:57.818 a nap or a walk or a run or something like that, which is also important and can't be 391 00:19:57.818 --> 00:19:59.818 quantified. 392 00:19:59.818 --> 00:20:04.560 Viv, I have to ask you a personal question now, and you can tell me to go and jump in 393 00:20:04.560 --> 00:20:06.560 the lake if it is too personal. 394 00:20:06.560 --> 00:20:08.560 You said bubbly. 395 00:20:08.560 --> 00:20:08.872 Does that mean you're taking some profits for yourself and your clients? 396 00:20:10.288 --> 00:20:13.431 No, because I think that trying to time these things is wrong. 397 00:20:13.952 --> 00:20:16.456 And I'm fully invested in it. 398 00:20:16.457 --> 00:20:20.534 And I think it's going to be like the dot-com bust, where if you had bought 399 00:20:20.534 --> 00:20:22.534 Amazon before, 400 00:20:22.534 --> 00:20:23.698 you'd be obviously suffering a lot when it fell 90%. 401 00:20:23.722 --> 00:20:27.972 But you'd still be better off 20 years later having held on to Amazon at that 402 00:20:27.972 --> 00:20:29.972 time as opposed to anything else you bought. 403 00:20:29.972 --> 00:20:30.722 I do think that the technology is real. 404 00:20:31.144 --> 00:20:36.972 The problem I have is that the size of the bubbly stuff that's happening right now, 405 00:20:37.315 --> 00:20:38.331 it doesn't make... 406 00:20:39.064 --> 00:20:45.809 sense from a from a from a logical point of view and that's when you get worried 407 00:20:45.809 --> 00:20:47.809 when people are just you're throwing money at something without kind of like 408 00:20:47.809 --> 00:20:52.575 considering what's the real value in it but no i'm i think buying into ai right 409 00:20:52.575 --> 00:20:54.575 now and waiting 20 years or 10 years is going to be one of the 410 00:20:54.575 --> 00:20:58.223 smartest things you do uh it might be smarter to wait maybe a few months and buy 411 00:20:58.223 --> 00:21:00.223 a little cheaper but you know it'll be 412 00:21:00.223 --> 00:21:01.742 terrible if you just miss out on getting in at the first place. 413 00:21:01.863 --> 00:21:07.270 Well, you haven't missed out, and neither has David, and well done to both of you, 414 00:21:07.270 --> 00:21:09.270 because I thought it was just another bubble. 415 00:21:09.270 --> 00:21:13.598 It may still be, but I mean, even if it's a bubble and falls 10%, 15%, and everyone 416 00:21:13.598 --> 00:21:15.598 says, I told you so, it's all over. 417 00:21:15.598 --> 00:21:17.598 Of course, it's not all over. 418 00:21:17.598 --> 00:21:19.598 This is with us forever. 419 00:21:19.598 --> 00:21:21.598 I did an interesting thing the other day. 420 00:21:21.598 --> 00:21:23.371 I put in to the few that I use, the few AI apps that I've got. 421 00:21:23.418 --> 00:21:25.793 I've got Perplexity, DeepSeek, Grok. 422 00:21:26.468 --> 00:21:32.768 um chat gpt co-pilot i think there's one other and i gave them all the same 423 00:21:32.768 --> 00:21:34.768 question when did trump 424 00:21:34.768 --> 00:21:40.272 start pretending to be a christian i use the word pretending instead of when did he 425 00:21:40.272 --> 00:21:40.411 become a 426 00:21:40.411 --> 00:21:45.538 christian because they'd all say well he was uh baptized in a presbyterian church 427 00:21:45.538 --> 00:21:47.538 you 428 00:21:47.538 --> 00:21:52.116 know with us because of his scottish background and everything but you put the 429 00:21:52.116 --> 00:21:54.116 word pretending and and you get a completely different 430 00:21:54.116 --> 00:21:56.116 answer from every single one. 431 00:21:56.116 --> 00:22:01.184 Some will sort of ignore the word pretending or ignore the mischief making 432 00:22:01.184 --> 00:22:03.184 of the word pretending. 433 00:22:03.184 --> 00:22:05.528 And others will say, well, of course, this is all subjective and you can't say that. 434 00:22:05.645 --> 00:22:12.599 But very, very interesting the way that their different minds work and whether 435 00:22:12.599 --> 00:22:14.599 they're a Musk AI app or 436 00:22:14.599 --> 00:22:15.302 Chinese AI app, for example. 437 00:22:15.739 --> 00:22:17.927 Do either of you find that, David, for example? 438 00:22:18.083 --> 00:22:20.083 You know what you're saying? 439 00:22:20.161 --> 00:22:21.239 I think this is a problem. 440 00:22:21.302 --> 00:22:22.880 It's not picking up the nuance. 441 00:22:23.456 --> 00:22:28.462 You know, it's taking the pure question and said, yes, he was baptized. 442 00:22:28.783 --> 00:22:34.470 But what you're trying to say is, you know, it's much more, what's the word? 443 00:22:34.908 --> 00:22:35.608 Subtle. 444 00:22:35.608 --> 00:22:36.225 Yes. 445 00:22:36.225 --> 00:22:37.494 You know, saying pretending. 446 00:22:38.673 --> 00:22:39.431 No, they picked it up, David. 447 00:22:39.432 --> 00:22:41.619 And therefore it doesn't pick that up. 448 00:22:41.869 --> 00:22:43.681 It actually did pick it up. 449 00:22:43.712 --> 00:22:44.412 It did. 450 00:22:44.412 --> 00:22:48.947 What I'm saying is that some people said they quantified the word pretending. 451 00:22:49.556 --> 00:22:50.256 Yes. 452 00:22:50.256 --> 00:22:50.476 They almost... 453 00:22:51.076 --> 00:22:58.041 Terms and conditions came in immediately and they wrote a disclaimer by saying 454 00:22:58.041 --> 00:23:00.041 certain things right at 455 00:23:00.041 --> 00:23:02.041 the beginning. 456 00:23:02.041 --> 00:23:04.041 So it was fascinating. 457 00:23:04.041 --> 00:23:04.166 I'm trying to come up with really, really difficult questions for them. 458 00:23:04.572 --> 00:23:10.838 And again, Viv, Trump was talking the other day with Mark Carney in the Oval 459 00:23:10.838 --> 00:23:12.838 Office. 460 00:23:12.838 --> 00:23:18.025 And he said he was talking about the Middle East and he said this could be a 461 00:23:18.025 --> 00:23:20.025 piece in the Middle East after so many years where. 462 00:23:20.025 --> 00:23:22.025 Millions. 463 00:23:22.025 --> 00:23:24.025 He said, no, tens of millions of people have died. 464 00:23:24.025 --> 00:23:26.025 And I thought, wait a second, that's wrong. 465 00:23:26.025 --> 00:23:27.509 So I immediately went to Grok and I said, did he just say tens of millions? 466 00:23:27.532 --> 00:23:30.056 And he said, and they said, yes, and he did say it. 467 00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:31.618 And this is what he said. 468 00:23:31.657 --> 00:23:34.462 And it was this was the context in which he used it. 469 00:23:34.837 --> 00:23:37.790 And this is the history of what when he said it in the past. 470 00:23:38.087 --> 00:23:39.072 It was fascinating. 471 00:23:39.259 --> 00:23:41.025 It was five seconds later, Viv. 472 00:23:41.540 --> 00:23:43.009 And you two have converted me. 473 00:23:44.415 --> 00:23:47.415 Yeah, no, look, I mean, it does add this extra belief. 474 00:23:47.776 --> 00:23:53.001 My question to you is that any of these use cases increase the global GDP, you 475 00:23:53.001 --> 00:23:53.419 know, 476 00:23:53.583 --> 00:23:56.868 and that is the thing that we have to see global GDP increase. 477 00:23:57.344 --> 00:24:02.251 And we are talking, I mean, to justify current spending, like I did this 478 00:24:02.251 --> 00:24:04.251 calculation a while back, and I told you guys about it, 479 00:24:04.251 --> 00:24:08.462 you need to have like five plus percent of GDP growth per annum to justify this kind 480 00:24:08.462 --> 00:24:08.615 of spending. 481 00:24:08.837 --> 00:24:09.537 You know what I mean? 482 00:24:09.633 --> 00:24:15.337 And what does that it's not going to be like, you know, having a more, I mean, 483 00:24:15.337 --> 00:24:17.337 Wikipedia, for instance, imagine Wikipedia, right? 484 00:24:17.337 --> 00:24:18.291 How much benefit has come to your life for having Wikipedia? 485 00:24:18.611 --> 00:24:20.392 I know for mine, a huge benefit. 486 00:24:20.994 --> 00:24:26.962 Wikipedia, I still ask every time I go there for like $20, you know what I mean, 487 00:24:26.962 --> 00:24:28.962 or $5 or whatever it is, begging for money. 488 00:24:28.962 --> 00:24:31.384 It's four euros over here, so we get it cheap. 489 00:24:31.447 --> 00:24:32.837 Yeah, yeah. 490 00:24:32.947 --> 00:24:37.150 But I'm saying to you that Wikipedia is one of the most useful things ever 491 00:24:37.150 --> 00:24:37.225 created, 492 00:24:37.228 --> 00:24:43.087 more useful than Coca-Cola or McDonald's by any definition, but it doesn't add to 493 00:24:43.087 --> 00:24:45.087 the GDP of the world. 494 00:24:45.087 --> 00:24:45.654 And it doesn't make financial sense, you know, from that point of view. 495 00:24:45.655 --> 00:24:49.218 I mean, you can argue whether economics is good or bad, but I'm saying to you that... 496 00:24:49.238 --> 00:24:51.921 That's my argument, that you use it. 497 00:24:52.499 --> 00:24:56.203 So in a way, it's making you more productive, even though you can't quantify 498 00:24:56.203 --> 00:24:56.207 it. 499 00:24:56.984 --> 00:25:03.515 Yeah, but it doesn't make Nvidia or OpenAI or Facebook make money, which they are 500 00:25:03.515 --> 00:25:05.515 basically spending money to make. 501 00:25:05.515 --> 00:25:07.515 You know what I mean? 502 00:25:07.515 --> 00:25:09.515 That's the question. 503 00:25:09.515 --> 00:25:11.515 That is the question around AI, is that it makes the world a much better place. 504 00:25:11.515 --> 00:25:13.515 I don't say no to that, but... 505 00:25:13.515 --> 00:25:14.853 Does it translate that 100 billion that Microsoft spent on it? 506 00:25:15.310 --> 00:25:19.273 into money that Microsoft gets back in any way. 507 00:25:19.274 --> 00:25:20.675 Yeah, I think we're going to have to live with that. 508 00:25:20.734 --> 00:25:21.434 That's what I'm saying. 509 00:25:21.434 --> 00:25:22.675 There are going to be casualties. 510 00:25:22.738 --> 00:25:24.199 We're never going to be justified. 511 00:25:24.660 --> 00:25:28.246 But as you mentioned with Larry Page or Serge J. 512 00:25:28.386 --> 00:25:31.949 Brun, whoever you mentioned, you know, they know that they have to keep doing it. 513 00:25:32.074 --> 00:25:34.043 You know, they can't fall out the race. 514 00:25:34.183 --> 00:25:38.230 Otherwise, you get an Intel situation, Cisco situation, you know, 515 00:25:38.293 --> 00:25:43.996 all the other situations that we've seen from the start of technology of companies 516 00:25:43.996 --> 00:25:45.996 that just lost their way. 517 00:25:45.996 --> 00:25:51.457 you know never kept up so that's why i'm saying you know from from my point of view 518 00:25:51.457 --> 00:25:53.457 i'm not getting out i 519 00:25:53.457 --> 00:25:58.426 would rather i'd rather continue with ai than start to look at gold or anything 520 00:25:58.426 --> 00:26:00.426 like that which is just uh you know just 521 00:26:00.426 --> 00:26:00.785 just a FOMO deal you know so 522 00:26:00.926 --> 00:26:07.879 i'm saying there's something real it was in silver yeah i saw it's over 49 yes 523 00:26:07.879 --> 00:26:09.879 david where 524 00:26:09.879 --> 00:26:13.644 is it now it broke 50 good lord broke 50 50 70 525 00:26:15.472 --> 00:26:16.753 It was 32. 526 00:26:16.754 --> 00:26:17.993 It was 32 EB. 527 00:26:18.056 --> 00:26:20.318 I can remember silver being like four, five, 528 00:26:20.415 --> 00:26:25.263 about between $5 and $10 an ounce when I first started in the business. 529 00:26:25.841 --> 00:26:26.541 Yeah. 530 00:26:26.541 --> 00:26:26.864 What does silver do? 531 00:26:27.083 --> 00:26:28.005 Who uses silver? 532 00:26:28.982 --> 00:26:29.682 I don't know. 533 00:26:29.682 --> 00:26:30.208 I don't know. 534 00:26:30.349 --> 00:26:33.036 Somewhere along the line for who you exactly. 535 00:26:36.896 --> 00:26:43.224 Anyway, this is one conversation that you just kind of avoid taking public because 536 00:26:43.224 --> 00:26:45.224 you get in front of a... 537 00:26:45.224 --> 00:26:47.224 You know, it's like religion. 538 00:26:47.224 --> 00:26:49.191 When you start to talk about religion, just make sure you know what you're 539 00:26:49.191 --> 00:26:51.191 talking about. 540 00:26:51.191 --> 00:26:53.835 You've studied the Bible, you've studied whatever you need to do, Koran, whatever. 541 00:26:54.296 --> 00:27:00.843 But it's like with gold, don't get in front of those gold bugs or anything, 542 00:27:00.843 --> 00:27:02.843 you're just going to get taken out. 543 00:27:02.843 --> 00:27:04.843 So be quiet. 544 00:27:04.843 --> 00:27:09.734 I spoke to a gold bug the other day, a fund manager, he's a gold bug, and he's 545 00:27:09.734 --> 00:27:11.734 very good, but he's got this thing for gold, he's a South African, 546 00:27:11.734 --> 00:27:13.734 I mean, what do you expect? 547 00:27:13.734 --> 00:27:17.125 And he was almost hyperventilating when he went through the numbers of the miners, 548 00:27:17.563 --> 00:27:22.785 because it was a day when the JSC was shooting up mainly because of the miners, 549 00:27:22.785 --> 00:27:24.785 the resources index was flying. 550 00:27:24.785 --> 00:27:29.723 And when I started to talk to him about gold, he got either emotional or he 551 00:27:29.723 --> 00:27:31.723 hyperventilated. 552 00:27:31.723 --> 00:27:32.317 It has that effect, but it should do as well. 553 00:27:32.318 --> 00:27:33.457 It's doubled in two years. 554 00:27:33.504 --> 00:27:36.067 It's quadrupled in 10 years. 555 00:27:36.707 --> 00:27:38.582 And when Gordon Brown, that... 556 00:27:39.630 --> 00:27:42.833 The useless prime minister sold Britain's last gold. 557 00:27:42.853 --> 00:27:45.255 That was $252 an ounce. 558 00:27:45.256 --> 00:27:51.720 He sold Britain's last bit of gold that he could sell at $252 an ounce. 559 00:27:51.939 --> 00:27:55.142 And now they're probably buying it back at $4,000. 560 00:27:55.143 --> 00:27:56.173 So here's my conundrum. 561 00:27:57.095 --> 00:27:57.795 Okay. 562 00:27:58.486 --> 00:28:01.204 Gold's gone up to over $4,000. 563 00:28:01.205 --> 00:28:04.236 I don't know where it is now, but call it $4,000 an ounce. 564 00:28:04.237 --> 00:28:04.937 Yes. 565 00:28:05.189 --> 00:28:09.647 America who back at Bretton Woods, 566 00:28:12.831 --> 00:28:17.057 took over from gold with a dollar as being the reserve currency of the world. 567 00:28:18.112 --> 00:28:22.620 In the 1970s, I think Nixon took America off the gold standard. 568 00:28:22.643 --> 00:28:28.260 But still, in order to even be on the gold standard, they had to have huge amounts of 569 00:28:28.260 --> 00:28:28.382 reserves, 570 00:28:28.382 --> 00:28:30.120 which they have maintained to this day. 571 00:28:30.214 --> 00:28:31.167 They haven't really added. 572 00:28:31.745 --> 00:28:36.120 But they've got massive amounts of gold hidden at Fort Knox and various other 573 00:28:36.120 --> 00:28:36.335 places. 574 00:28:36.698 --> 00:28:37.398 Wherever. 575 00:28:38.014 --> 00:28:43.340 I don't know how many thousands of ounces, by far the biggest world's gold reserves, 576 00:28:43.879 --> 00:28:49.703 but they still value them because of the illiquidity at $42 an ounce. 577 00:28:50.047 --> 00:28:52.430 Today it's $4,000 an ounce. 578 00:28:52.508 --> 00:28:53.945 100 times cheaper now. 579 00:28:54.367 --> 00:28:55.067 Yes. 580 00:28:55.067 --> 00:28:56.226 So now, surely, 581 00:28:56.758 --> 00:29:02.836 if the American currency is now supported by those huge amounts of gold, you know, 582 00:29:02.976 --> 00:29:03.976 you would buy the dollar. 583 00:29:04.445 --> 00:29:07.289 You would say, hold on, This is the strongest currency around. 584 00:29:07.798 --> 00:29:10.239 You know, why do I need to go elsewhere? 585 00:29:10.860 --> 00:29:11.698 Look for something else. 586 00:29:12.299 --> 00:29:15.221 Every time gold up, it actually should be strengthening the dollar. 587 00:29:15.260 --> 00:29:17.342 But America, that doesn't happen. 588 00:29:17.343 --> 00:29:21.639 And the danger is if you do revalue it, it gives the Reserve Bank or the 589 00:29:22.201 --> 00:29:28.116 Fed Reserve huge margin to actually increase money supply and go out on a... 590 00:29:28.117 --> 00:29:28.817 Please don't tell Donald. 591 00:29:28.817 --> 00:29:31.600 I hope Donald Trump doesn't listen to this. 592 00:29:31.616 --> 00:29:34.647 It probably hasn't occurred to him. 593 00:29:34.648 --> 00:29:36.866 But what I'm trying to do is, Lindsay, I mean... 594 00:29:37.126 --> 00:29:37.826 Viv's there. 595 00:29:37.826 --> 00:29:38.947 I'm trying to say, hold on a sec. 596 00:29:39.408 --> 00:29:40.590 This doesn't make sense. 597 00:29:40.609 --> 00:29:44.133 You know, the dollar should be roaring on the bank of the gold price. 598 00:29:44.734 --> 00:29:46.539 I'll give you a step to blow your minds, okay? 599 00:29:46.813 --> 00:29:47.513 Here we go. 600 00:29:47.513 --> 00:29:49.539 You know who has the most gold reserves in the world and it's not the U.S. 601 00:29:49.578 --> 00:29:50.278 government? 602 00:29:50.859 --> 00:29:51.559 No, go on. 603 00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:53.867 Indian private households. 604 00:29:54.539 --> 00:29:55.336 Yes, yes. 605 00:29:55.337 --> 00:29:56.680 I would buy that. 606 00:29:56.820 --> 00:29:58.289 Under the bed or in the bank? 607 00:29:58.445 --> 00:30:00.086 I will buy that. 608 00:30:00.102 --> 00:30:03.633 Private households in India hold something like four times as much gold as U.S. 609 00:30:03.649 --> 00:30:04.349 government. 610 00:30:04.971 --> 00:30:08.074 I will buy it, yeah. 611 00:30:08.075 --> 00:30:11.377 Well, it's very customary, isn't it? 612 00:30:11.378 --> 00:30:12.078 Traditional. 613 00:30:12.078 --> 00:30:12.340 Yeah, yeah. 614 00:30:12.340 --> 00:30:15.197 I mean, in India, like in South India especially, people just buy gold. 615 00:30:15.463 --> 00:30:16.400 It's like a cultural thing. 616 00:30:16.760 --> 00:30:20.267 They have about 20, according to the guesstimates out there, 617 00:30:20.268 --> 00:30:24.596 they have about 25,000 tons of gold in private hands in India. 618 00:30:25.127 --> 00:30:26.955 The US government only has about 8,000 tons. 619 00:30:26.956 --> 00:30:27.674 That's right. 620 00:30:27.675 --> 00:30:29.174 You know what I mean? 621 00:30:29.236 --> 00:30:29.936 Yeah. 622 00:30:29.936 --> 00:30:31.028 They're not going to go around. 623 00:30:31.228 --> 00:30:35.271 They're not going to be able to go around and get every Indian household together 624 00:30:35.271 --> 00:30:37.271 and say, listen, 625 00:30:38.552 --> 00:30:41.482 come and deposit your gold so we can boost the rupee. 626 00:30:43.536 --> 00:30:44.236 No, no. 627 00:30:44.622 --> 00:30:49.263 But the thing is that gold is something that's important. 628 00:30:49.450 --> 00:30:52.575 The important thing is that Nixon was able to do that was because the U.S. 629 00:30:52.576 --> 00:30:56.419 was such a dominant play in the global economy that the dollar became the new 630 00:30:56.419 --> 00:30:58.419 gold effectively. 631 00:30:58.419 --> 00:31:00.419 Right. 632 00:31:00.419 --> 00:31:02.419 and reserves around the world were replaced. 633 00:31:02.419 --> 00:31:04.419 gold with dollars effectively. 634 00:31:04.419 --> 00:31:06.166 But what's happening right now is the reason that we're going back to gold 635 00:31:06.166 --> 00:31:08.166 partially is the fact that we're no longer going to the, 636 00:31:08.166 --> 00:31:10.432 in a world where the US dollar is automatically the reserve currency of the 637 00:31:10.432 --> 00:31:10.453 world, you know what I mean? 638 00:31:10.729 --> 00:31:13.370 It still is, but it's not automatically going to be that going forward. 639 00:31:13.752 --> 00:31:17.893 And many central banks especially are swapping out dollars for gold. 640 00:31:18.862 --> 00:31:21.112 And that's one of the reasons we are seeing what's happening here. 641 00:31:21.456 --> 00:31:23.362 So the gold stuff happening is interesting. 642 00:31:23.377 --> 00:31:25.831 And then what's happening with platinum and silver we talked about. 643 00:31:26.714 --> 00:31:30.357 is I think the fact that gold rises and then these ratios basically are maintained 644 00:31:30.357 --> 00:31:32.357 over time. 645 00:31:32.357 --> 00:31:36.322 There's actually a gold ratio of platinum to silver and a gold ratio to platinum 646 00:31:36.322 --> 00:31:38.322 that's like, you know, you could trade that as well. 647 00:31:38.322 --> 00:31:39.150 And so I do think that that's the story. 648 00:31:39.189 --> 00:31:40.728 It's not so much gold that's important. 649 00:31:41.072 --> 00:31:42.126 It's why is gold going up? 650 00:31:42.150 --> 00:31:48.618 And one of the reasons it's going up is because the Chinese and the Indians are 651 00:31:48.618 --> 00:31:50.618 looking and saying, even the Europeans are saying, maybe not so many dollars, 652 00:31:50.618 --> 00:31:52.618 maybe a bit more gold in my account. 653 00:31:52.618 --> 00:31:54.618 It's interesting, isn't it, David? 654 00:31:54.618 --> 00:31:56.618 You talk about that. 655 00:31:56.618 --> 00:31:57.299 Sorry, Davey, you talk about them not revaluing gold, 656 00:31:57.319 --> 00:32:02.506 but I'm sure they're aware of the fact that they've got the stuff in spade loads 657 00:32:02.506 --> 00:32:04.506 underneath Fort Knox. 658 00:32:04.506 --> 00:32:09.475 But it's an interesting sort of visual here that Trump phones up Stephen Miller 659 00:32:09.475 --> 00:32:09.511 and says, 660 00:32:09.553 --> 00:32:13.569 listen, we're supporting Argentina to the tune of 20 billion. 661 00:32:14.256 --> 00:32:16.913 Why don't we just send them 20 billion dollars worth of gold? 662 00:32:17.975 --> 00:32:21.600 Go down to Fort Knox with a couple of trucks and go down to the docks. 663 00:32:21.647 --> 00:32:22.347 It's just like... 664 00:32:22.347 --> 00:32:24.617 But, you know, there's so much of it. 665 00:32:24.756 --> 00:32:30.162 Surely they can asset back the dollar, as you said, with gold to do things like 666 00:32:30.162 --> 00:32:30.463 that. 667 00:32:31.482 --> 00:32:32.182 They could. 668 00:32:32.607 --> 00:32:33.443 I don't know why. 669 00:32:33.943 --> 00:32:34.643 I don't know why. 670 00:32:35.029 --> 00:32:36.146 It just hasn't moved. 671 00:32:36.185 --> 00:32:39.716 You know, they haven't touched this in decades, in absolute decades. 672 00:32:40.279 --> 00:32:45.591 They're not involved in the market simply because they still have the world outside 673 00:32:45.591 --> 00:32:47.591 of what Viv says, 674 00:32:47.591 --> 00:32:47.685 which I understand, you know. 675 00:32:47.904 --> 00:32:54.160 is uh look the other thing is it's pretty much I don't think as much as the Indians, 676 00:32:54.160 --> 00:32:56.160 but I mean, 677 00:32:56.160 --> 00:33:01.046 certainly Europeans traditionally have always, you know, accumulated gold, 678 00:33:01.046 --> 00:33:03.046 particularly the Swiss, particularly, 679 00:33:03.046 --> 00:33:03.531 you know, Germans. 680 00:33:03.570 --> 00:33:05.351 I don't know, you know, other people in Europe. 681 00:33:06.148 --> 00:33:10.039 It's been a traditional haven for gold, but no one uses it. 682 00:33:10.429 --> 00:33:11.257 You know, that's the thing. 683 00:33:11.304 --> 00:33:12.898 No one's actually using gold. 684 00:33:14.898 --> 00:33:16.445 It's just kind of a reserve. 685 00:33:16.835 --> 00:33:18.757 One day when those Indians want to sell it. 686 00:33:19.710 --> 00:33:21.932 Well, the merit go, who the hell is going to buy the stuff? 687 00:33:24.034 --> 00:33:25.194 And that's the irony. 688 00:33:25.596 --> 00:33:28.620 And that's why I'm saying, look, I'd rather be an AI bull. 689 00:33:29.003 --> 00:33:31.463 And even if we look at gold, it's up 40% this year. 690 00:33:31.799 --> 00:33:36.753 My NVIDIA is up over 40%. All right, so NVIDIA is up 40% or something. 691 00:33:36.784 --> 00:33:43.018 Okay, I'd rather have NVIDIA because I know where NVIDIA can go and I know where 692 00:33:43.018 --> 00:33:45.018 gold could go as well. 693 00:33:45.018 --> 00:33:47.018 Okay, very quick one now. 694 00:33:47.018 --> 00:33:49.018 And that's David again, Viv. 695 00:33:49.018 --> 00:33:52.040 David on Monday, kiss of death, said there's been a recovery in luxury stocks. 696 00:33:52.516 --> 00:33:58.422 Today, of course, Ferrari fell after a trading update by the most in its history, 697 00:33:58.422 --> 00:34:00.422 I think, 698 00:34:00.422 --> 00:34:01.688 because of a trading update, down 16%. 699 00:34:01.985 --> 00:34:05.672 David, they brought out an electric car, but it wasn't that that did it, was it? 700 00:34:06.594 --> 00:34:08.719 No, no, I just think it's the outlook. 701 00:34:08.735 --> 00:34:10.204 The results per se were good. 702 00:34:11.646 --> 00:34:15.245 but they've just toned down their outlook right through to 2030. 703 00:34:15.327 --> 00:34:20.870 And I think it's really a reflection of issues in the motor market. 704 00:34:20.909 --> 00:34:24.167 I mean, overall, you've seen Aston Martin, Porsche, all of those come down. 705 00:34:24.613 --> 00:34:27.230 I think there's chaos in markets. 706 00:34:27.277 --> 00:34:29.277 I think the Chinese have just, you know, 707 00:34:31.464 --> 00:34:34.777 just kind of destabilized all the traditional markets. 708 00:34:34.808 --> 00:34:35.964 And I can understand why. 709 00:34:36.136 --> 00:34:36.964 You know, I understand. 710 00:34:37.511 --> 00:34:38.714 It makes a lot of sense. 711 00:34:39.062 --> 00:34:45.513 Most people just want to go from A to B, and if they want an electric vehicle to do 712 00:34:45.513 --> 00:34:47.513 the same, the Chinese are supporting them. 713 00:34:47.513 --> 00:34:47.537 You don't need the fancy cars. 714 00:34:47.880 --> 00:34:48.580 But I think... 715 00:34:50.010 --> 00:34:53.333 The one thing I like about Ferrari is it limits its output. 716 00:34:53.372 --> 00:34:56.556 You know, it's a very small producer globally. 717 00:34:57.298 --> 00:35:03.861 And I still trust the brand, you know, even though they've toned down the outlook 718 00:35:03.861 --> 00:35:05.861 for electric vehicles and it'll be a much 719 00:35:05.861 --> 00:35:09.626 slower, you know, performance there or they expect it to be a lot slower. 720 00:35:09.689 --> 00:35:15.548 And I still think it's a very solid quality brand that people aspire to. 721 00:35:15.611 --> 00:35:18.079 I walk around New York, I see the kids. 722 00:35:18.346 --> 00:35:21.509 They've either got Man United shirts on or Ferrari shirts, both of them. 723 00:35:24.430 --> 00:35:26.032 It'll be an ASML story. 724 00:35:26.075 --> 00:35:30.536 I mean, ASML came down this year because of a trading update, I think it was. 725 00:35:30.575 --> 00:35:33.544 And look, as you said the other day, David, it goes shooting up again. 726 00:35:33.762 --> 00:35:37.067 The same thing will happen with Ferrari, I'm sure. 727 00:35:37.270 --> 00:35:40.473 I'll give you a stat that will tell you why that may not be true. 728 00:35:41.333 --> 00:35:46.973 In the last 40 years, the number of people that have driver's license in the US has 729 00:35:46.973 --> 00:35:48.973 dropped dramatically. 730 00:35:48.973 --> 00:35:53.928 I mean, I think around about 97% of kids, like 20-year-olds basically, in like an 80 731 00:35:53.928 --> 00:35:55.928 had a driver's license. 732 00:35:55.928 --> 00:35:57.928 It's like 75% now. 733 00:35:57.928 --> 00:36:00.334 And I think over time what's going to happen is that, I mean, I like luxury 734 00:36:00.334 --> 00:36:00.558 goods. 735 00:36:00.717 --> 00:36:03.779 I think if AI takes off, we get 5-10% global GDP growth rates. 736 00:36:04.123 --> 00:36:05.295 Luxury goods are going to be in demand. 737 00:36:05.779 --> 00:36:08.623 I don't think either that luxury cars are going to be something that's going to be 738 00:36:08.623 --> 00:36:09.105 around. 739 00:36:09.105 --> 00:36:09.483 It's going to be like horses. 740 00:36:09.998 --> 00:36:11.608 Yeah, back in the day, all the rich guys wanted horses. 741 00:36:11.609 --> 00:36:17.076 You know, Viv, the one thing about Ferrari that I can't comprehend. 742 00:36:17.622 --> 00:36:24.582 you know that just doesn't make any sense if you go to there's certain people the 743 00:36:24.582 --> 00:36:26.582 rich people they've got four 744 00:36:26.582 --> 00:36:32.027 five ferraris you know i mean that's you're in a different caliber they don't 745 00:36:32.027 --> 00:36:34.027 they're not buying a car to get from a this 746 00:36:34.027 --> 00:36:38.910 is this is like a collector's item it's the same as those who buy these burking 747 00:36:38.910 --> 00:36:40.910 bags you know ladies who buy burking 748 00:36:40.910 --> 00:36:45.441 bags like they got five six ten of them you know what i mean and it's just such a 749 00:36:45.441 --> 00:36:47.441 different market 750 00:36:47.441 --> 00:36:49.514 It's not something that I understand, believe me. 751 00:36:50.116 --> 00:36:53.499 There's even a Ferrari, David, that you buy but you can't drive, isn't there? 752 00:36:53.678 --> 00:36:54.475 Isn't there some special... 753 00:36:54.476 --> 00:36:55.217 Yeah, there are some. 754 00:36:55.218 --> 00:36:56.960 Yeah. 755 00:36:57.421 --> 00:36:59.561 It's the 50-year-olds, it's the 60-year-olds that have these Ferraris. 756 00:36:59.881 --> 00:37:00.944 The 20-year-old kids don't. 757 00:37:01.342 --> 00:37:06.389 Oh, by the way, I don't know if you guys saw today, did you see the raid in South 758 00:37:06.389 --> 00:37:08.389 Africa, have you talked about it yet? 759 00:37:08.389 --> 00:37:10.389 No. 760 00:37:10.389 --> 00:37:12.155 Where that Manuela Trust, I think four or five Lamborghinis were taken out of his 761 00:37:12.155 --> 00:37:12.450 house. 762 00:37:12.774 --> 00:37:19.201 This is the guy that was accused of the tender fraud, the two billion run tender 763 00:37:19.201 --> 00:37:19.440 fraud. 764 00:37:19.783 --> 00:37:21.603 And apparently they started to raid the house and stuff. 765 00:37:21.604 --> 00:37:22.588 And so they're taking these things out. 766 00:37:23.127 --> 00:37:29.213 But the thing I see right now is that I understand why people want the Ferraris. 767 00:37:29.666 --> 00:37:31.197 But do you think Elon Musk is buying Ferraris? 768 00:37:31.198 --> 00:37:33.650 Do you think these kind of guys are buying Ferraris at the moment? 769 00:37:33.681 --> 00:37:34.869 That's not what they're doing. 770 00:37:36.416 --> 00:37:37.853 And I see youngsters myself. 771 00:37:37.885 --> 00:37:39.853 I mean, we have a young lady working with us. 772 00:37:39.854 --> 00:37:40.554 She makes enough money. 773 00:37:40.554 --> 00:37:41.225 She doesn't have a car. 774 00:37:41.842 --> 00:37:48.828 she ubers everywhere uh and yeah and and and she says now she's like it's more 775 00:37:48.828 --> 00:37:50.828 useful it's like you 776 00:37:50.828 --> 00:37:55.718 know whatever and and i think that is the future driverless vehicles and that kind 777 00:37:55.718 --> 00:37:57.718 of stuff but luxury goods i i think the birkenbags going to be 778 00:37:57.718 --> 00:38:02.601 around i think the the luxury brands are going to be around people are still going 779 00:38:02.601 --> 00:38:04.601 to buy those things but cars i think are going forward well in 780 00:38:04.601 --> 00:38:09.429 that case i'm a trendsetter i'm not a trend follower i'm a trendsetter because i 781 00:38:09.429 --> 00:38:11.429 haven't had a car for nine years and because i moved to the netherlands public 782 00:38:11.429 --> 00:38:12.784 transport and uber do me absolutely fine. 783 00:38:12.785 --> 00:38:13.704 Why do I need a car? 784 00:38:13.784 --> 00:38:20.751 Why do I have to be behind the wheel and get stressed out and get road rage and 785 00:38:20.751 --> 00:38:22.751 shouting obscenities in Dutch or trying to in Dutch to Dutch 786 00:38:22.751 --> 00:38:23.251 people who can't drive properly or German tourists? 787 00:38:23.594 --> 00:38:26.501 I'm much happier letting someone else take the strain. 788 00:38:26.594 --> 00:38:27.294 Thank you. 789 00:38:27.294 --> 00:38:29.704 So, Lindsay Williams, trendsetter yet again. 790 00:38:30.141 --> 00:38:32.579 Viv, I interrupted you, I think. 791 00:38:32.844 --> 00:38:34.110 No, no, no. 792 00:38:34.548 --> 00:38:35.719 I think luxury goods are going to be a thing. 793 00:38:35.720 --> 00:38:40.766 I think if you were to be playing the ball in the next 10 years, maybe AI companies 794 00:38:40.766 --> 00:38:42.766 themselves might not be the... 795 00:38:42.766 --> 00:38:44.766 the things to go to. 796 00:38:44.766 --> 00:38:47.718 But I think imagining a world that's significantly richer 10 years from now is 797 00:38:47.718 --> 00:38:49.718 not a bad way to think of things. 798 00:38:49.718 --> 00:38:52.679 And I think if we do that, if we do expect 10%, 5% GDP growth rate, maybe not buying 799 00:38:53.086 --> 00:38:57.062 Microsoft, but maybe buying the luxury good brands that are going to be what are 800 00:38:57.062 --> 00:38:59.062 these millionaires going to spend their money on, 801 00:38:59.062 --> 00:39:03.007 or buying the high-end apartments where all these millionaires want to go and live 802 00:39:03.007 --> 00:39:05.007 in their fancy lives out, 803 00:39:05.007 --> 00:39:07.664 might be an interesting way to approach the AI bubble. 804 00:39:09.481 --> 00:39:11.042 or the AI trade, let me see. 805 00:39:11.043 --> 00:39:17.792 There's an apartment block with views of Buckingham Palace and the only people that 806 00:39:17.792 --> 00:39:19.792 they're allowing to come and 807 00:39:19.792 --> 00:39:21.112 have a viewing are certified billionaires. 808 00:39:21.214 --> 00:39:23.214 Most of them are American, I might add. 809 00:39:23.215 --> 00:39:28.745 I don't know how many billionaires have been created over this last two years with 810 00:39:28.745 --> 00:39:28.976 AI, 811 00:39:28.976 --> 00:39:31.589 but I'm sure there's been a big spike in them. 812 00:39:31.620 --> 00:39:36.604 Anyway, we're talking fanciful stuff here and I'm going to have a look at the 813 00:39:36.604 --> 00:39:38.604 markets because the dollar ran. 814 00:39:38.604 --> 00:39:39.466 It's 17.17, which has barely changed. 815 00:39:39.467 --> 00:39:42.029 The British pound against the round, 22.82. 816 00:39:42.591 --> 00:39:46.170 And the mighty euro against the round is 19.85. 817 00:39:46.193 --> 00:39:52.482 The euro against the round, rather, the mighty round, 19.85 now, which is 818 00:39:52.482 --> 00:39:54.482 gratifying. 819 00:39:54.482 --> 00:39:54.685 Euro dollar is 1.1560. 820 00:39:55.029 --> 00:40:00.982 How can the dollar be strong, the euro be weak, and the gold price be strong as 821 00:40:00.982 --> 00:40:01.354 well? 822 00:40:01.354 --> 00:40:04.154 It's got to be that fear of missing out trade in gold. 823 00:40:04.170 --> 00:40:05.013 It has to be. 824 00:40:05.170 --> 00:40:06.388 How can the gold go up? 825 00:40:06.536 --> 00:40:08.999 and the dollar go up and the stock market go up. 826 00:40:09.018 --> 00:40:10.079 It doesn't make sense to me. 827 00:40:10.460 --> 00:40:15.065 Gold price itself is down today by 0.7%, about as much as the dollar is up. 828 00:40:15.128 --> 00:40:20.347 4,010 is that yellow metal, was 4,050 yesterday. 829 00:40:20.393 --> 00:40:24.409 Platinum, 16.90, which is down $11 an ounce. 830 00:40:24.800 --> 00:40:31.284 Palladium has been doing well, up 100 yesterday, up 29 today to 15.12, closing 831 00:40:31.284 --> 00:40:33.284 in on platinum. 832 00:40:33.284 --> 00:40:34.362 That's a big one, up nearly 2% today. 833 00:40:34.768 --> 00:40:35.925 and other commodities. 834 00:40:36.272 --> 00:40:42.337 The one that we've added to our list in the last few weeks has been copper because 835 00:40:42.337 --> 00:40:44.337 of its, because I just think it's going up, 836 00:40:44.337 --> 00:40:46.204 but also because of its South African links suddenly with the Anglo story. 837 00:40:46.642 --> 00:40:53.071 $5.11 and a bit for copper, which is a new recent high, up over 2% 838 00:40:53.509 --> 00:40:54.209 on the day. 839 00:40:54.587 --> 00:40:59.931 Crude oil, $62.24, that's for West Texas, down 0.5%, and Brent crude oil down 0.6% 840 00:40:59.932 --> 00:41:02.837 to $65.84. 841 00:41:02.993 --> 00:41:04.618 Elsewhere, another speccy one. 842 00:41:05.084 --> 00:41:08.466 is Bitcoin went to 125, now just below 121. 843 00:41:08.488 --> 00:41:10.408 That's down 1.1% on the day. 844 00:41:10.810 --> 00:41:15.412 South African 10-year bond homing in on 9% on the downside. 845 00:41:15.413 --> 00:41:18.818 It's 9.05 at the moment, that yield, so the bond market's strong. 846 00:41:19.341 --> 00:41:22.545 And the US 10-year bond, the yield up very slightly to 847 00:41:23.607 --> 00:41:28.560 4.15%. S&P 500 futures went above 6,800 for the first time yesterday, 848 00:41:28.841 --> 00:41:31.451 down today by a third of a percent to 67%. 849 00:41:34.343 --> 00:41:37.605 6,776 for S&P December futures. 850 00:41:38.527 --> 00:41:43.710 David, stocks up and down on the JSC or any news on the JSC that caught your eye? 851 00:41:43.952 --> 00:41:44.652 Not really. 852 00:41:44.652 --> 00:41:48.671 I just think that there's been a little bit of a sell-off in gold shares and in 853 00:41:48.671 --> 00:41:50.671 platinum shares. 854 00:41:50.671 --> 00:41:52.577 And the odd thing is that there are a lot more gainers than there are losers. 855 00:41:52.687 --> 00:41:59.062 But market down 0.67 of a percent. 856 00:41:59.380 --> 00:42:05.845 A little bit of easing, mainly because of the sell-off in gold and platinum shares, 857 00:42:05.845 --> 00:42:07.845 but banks quite strong. 858 00:42:07.845 --> 00:42:09.845 I'm not quite sure what's driving that, 859 00:42:09.845 --> 00:42:15.099 whether it's just a belief that rates are going to come down and things are starting 860 00:42:15.099 --> 00:42:15.174 to look 861 00:42:15.174 --> 00:42:15.838 up there. 862 00:42:15.838 --> 00:42:17.974 But banks have been just picking up slightly. 863 00:42:18.302 --> 00:42:22.349 There haven't been performers this whole year, but I think we're starting to see a 864 00:42:22.349 --> 00:42:22.519 bit of money. 865 00:42:23.443 --> 00:42:26.646 There must be a lot of money just floating around trying to find a home. 866 00:42:26.911 --> 00:42:28.568 It can't all go offshore. 867 00:42:29.236 --> 00:42:32.980 So I'm sure a lot of the market is propped up by just the weight of money. 868 00:42:33.000 --> 00:42:38.404 You know, property also up a little bit as well. 869 00:42:38.467 --> 00:42:43.490 It's also been a sector that's benefiting from, as those long-term rates come down, 870 00:42:43.490 --> 00:42:45.490 you know, 871 00:42:45.490 --> 00:42:47.842 property shares start to pick up as well, you know, on valuations, on yields. 872 00:42:48.576 --> 00:42:52.482 So, yeah, overall a good day, 25 billion traded. 873 00:42:52.654 --> 00:42:53.873 Okay. 874 00:42:53.874 --> 00:42:58.201 I think Viv's eyes glazed over when you started talking about that, when I started 875 00:42:58.201 --> 00:43:00.201 talking about it. 876 00:43:00.201 --> 00:43:02.201 the JSC. 877 00:43:02.201 --> 00:43:04.201 It is still a part of your life, isn't it, Viv? 878 00:43:04.201 --> 00:43:06.201 I've just said JSC has outperformed, but you talked about the banks. 879 00:43:06.201 --> 00:43:06.991 Look at APSA's P-ratio versus dividend yield. 880 00:43:07.030 --> 00:43:09.835 It still gets me just how cheap they are at the moment. 881 00:43:09.836 --> 00:43:12.936 The market is pricing a lot of negativity about our banks still. 882 00:43:13.233 --> 00:43:17.014 If we had a reasonable P-ratio, a real reasonable dividend yield on this thing 883 00:43:17.014 --> 00:43:17.417 here, 884 00:43:17.811 --> 00:43:22.467 I would suggest a company like APSA would be significantly higher than it is right 885 00:43:22.467 --> 00:43:22.808 now. 886 00:43:22.884 --> 00:43:28.027 John Bickhardt would love you for that because exactly what he's been doing, one 887 00:43:28.027 --> 00:43:30.027 of his biggest holdings. 888 00:43:30.027 --> 00:43:31.484 On the JSC today, Sappy bouncing back by 6.2%. 889 00:43:31.485 --> 00:43:33.945 South 32, three and two thirds percent higher. 890 00:43:33.968 --> 00:43:36.265 First round, a bank up 3.3%. 891 00:43:36.406 --> 00:43:38.445 Discovery 3.1% to the good. 892 00:43:38.788 --> 00:43:42.070 And pick and pay yesterday was up about 5%, I think. 893 00:43:42.445 --> 00:43:44.507 Today up another 2.8%. 894 00:43:44.508 --> 00:43:46.507 On the downside… There's a trading statement out, yeah. 895 00:43:46.570 --> 00:43:47.270 Oh, was there? 896 00:43:47.270 --> 00:43:48.304 Which I think is moderate, yeah. 897 00:43:48.554 --> 00:43:49.254 Okay. 898 00:43:49.254 --> 00:43:53.713 There's nothing brilliant about it, but… probably slightly better than the market 899 00:43:53.713 --> 00:43:55.713 expected. 900 00:43:55.713 --> 00:43:56.612 If you take Boxer out of pick and pay, there's nothing left. 901 00:43:56.834 --> 00:43:59.830 I won't say anything. 902 00:44:02.534 --> 00:44:07.698 I think the price of pick and pay actually probably reflects its holding in Boxer, 903 00:44:08.854 --> 00:44:15.416 which is a sad reflection of a business that once dominated the industrial sector 904 00:44:15.416 --> 00:44:15.523 of the 905 00:44:15.523 --> 00:44:16.163 market. 906 00:44:16.540 --> 00:44:21.761 On the downside, the JSC's resources stocks have given up everything that they 907 00:44:21.761 --> 00:44:23.761 gained yesterday. 908 00:44:23.761 --> 00:44:24.905 I mean, look at Sibania, still water down 7.4%. 909 00:44:24.921 --> 00:44:27.483 Advertec, not a miner, of course, but that's down 6.1%. 910 00:44:27.484 --> 00:44:29.202 That must be an ex-div story, I think. 911 00:44:29.562 --> 00:44:31.460 Impala Platinum down nearly 5%. 912 00:44:32.140 --> 00:44:34.226 Pan-African Resources down four and three quarters. 913 00:44:34.538 --> 00:44:41.273 And Valterra, formerly Anglo-American Platinum, down 4.7%. So, you know, good 914 00:44:41.273 --> 00:44:43.273 day yesterday, 915 00:44:43.273 --> 00:44:45.273 bad day today. 916 00:44:45.273 --> 00:44:47.273 The technicians will be looking at this. 917 00:44:47.273 --> 00:44:49.273 I know they'll be looking at this. 918 00:44:49.273 --> 00:44:51.273 They'll be looking at the new highs on the resources index. 919 00:44:51.273 --> 00:44:53.273 They'll be looking at the new highs on gold. 920 00:44:53.273 --> 00:44:53.843 They'll be looking at the sort of mini reversal pattern today. 921 00:44:54.225 --> 00:44:57.483 And they'll be screaming sell on these things. 922 00:44:57.484 --> 00:44:58.944 They've been waiting for this sort of thing. 923 00:44:59.265 --> 00:45:01.030 So watch out for the close this evening. 924 00:45:01.077 --> 00:45:04.015 There may be some money coming in on the sell side. 925 00:45:04.046 --> 00:45:04.746 David? 926 00:45:06.015 --> 00:45:11.858 When I look at the charts, and I'm not a technician, but when you look at the 927 00:45:11.858 --> 00:45:13.858 charts on some of those gold shears. 928 00:45:13.858 --> 00:45:16.374 gold itself, you know, it just screams, okay, this is dangerous. 929 00:45:16.514 --> 00:45:18.635 You know, this is seriously dangerous. 930 00:45:19.276 --> 00:45:24.077 And that's why I think it's very difficult to, you know, to stand by it at this 931 00:45:24.077 --> 00:45:24.183 stage. 932 00:45:24.319 --> 00:45:25.702 I'm not saying for those who've got it. 933 00:45:26.499 --> 00:45:31.124 So, yeah, it is from a technical point of view, I can't see people being bullish. 934 00:45:31.448 --> 00:45:34.151 Gentlemen, I've kept you far too long, but thank you very much. 935 00:45:36.173 --> 00:45:37.575 We had lots of catching up to do. 936 00:45:37.973 --> 00:45:44.157 David Shapiro is from Sessom Securities, Viv Govender from the award-winning Ram 937 00:45:44.157 --> 00:45:46.157 Swiss, and that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 938 00:45:46.157 --> 00:45:51.602 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 939 00:45:51.602 --> 00:45:53.602 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 940 00:45:53.602 --> 00:45:55.352 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 941 00:45:55.696 --> 00:46:00.337 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 942 00:46:00.768 --> 00:46:07.734 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 943 00:46:07.734 --> 00:46:09.734 entity other than the speaker or the author. 944 00:46:09.734 --> 00:46:13.223 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 945 00:46:13.223 --> 00:46:13.322 change, 946 00:46:13.504 --> 00:46:16.066 revision and rethinking at any time. 947 00:46:16.363 --> 00:46:18.793 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.