You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
The JC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
shadow.
And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe,
Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
Skulk, I've got a technical problem.
Okay, it's with my screen because I'm just getting prices ready and everything.
And I've got the all share at nearly 111,000.
That's obviously wrong.
Can't be.
Gold, no, it can't be.
Gold price, 4,044 at 1.5%.
No, that's wrong as well.
Goodness me, and I pay these people for this.
And silver, about $49 an ounce.
The copper price has gone through $5 a pound, and quite significantly so as well.
Hey, I don't know why they mess me around.
But anyway, we can chat about other things.
I mean, come on, Scott, this is good fun, isn't it?
Yeah, it is.
Let's not talk about...
Stav, your screens are clearly doubling up because if gold is showing $4,000 per
ounce,
surely it must be around about $2,000.
I'm not sure.
I haven't looked at my screens for many, many...
Yes, that's the case, man.
It's doubled in two years.
It's quadrupled in 10 years.
As a person said once to me, he had a great saying.
It was when the Ukrainian, or Russian nuclear plant like Chernobyl.
blew up and this great cloud went across the the wheat growing plains of of europe
and you couldn't get
into you couldn't get into the chicago board of trade to buy any wheat futures
because they were limit
up and then when they reopened they went living up again so you would buy any food
that was on the board i.e sugar
for example and i said to my boss i said sugar's not limit limit up He said, it's a
food, get it bought.
You can stick it in your mouth and swallow it.
There we go.
It's like gold's a food.
So that's where the saying comes from.
It's a food.
You've got to buy it.
That's what people are saying.
No, it is.
I mean, literally, the precious metals run.
I mean, we haven't seen this in decades.
And just an interesting factoid.
I mean, I don't know if you...
But up to yesterday,
the JSE has basically grown by 33.7%.
That's just for 2025 alone.
This is from the 1st of January up to now.
If you didn't have any gold counters, and just for fun, I included
Sabania Stillwater.
I know Sabania Stillwater.
It's not a pure gold mine.
And the actual fact it went up from, I think it's...
generated about let's call it 12
12 percent yeah between 10 and 12 percent out of gold that was about two three years
ago and is now well
well over 50 so it is predominantly earning most of its profits out of out of
its gold's operation so i'm going to include it
so that gives us six counters on the jsu if you if
you did not have any of those if you didn't have any of those six counters in
your portfolio.
you wouldn't have seen a 33.7% increase in your portfolio,
but only 18.9%.
So just for fun again, I… So nearly half has been attributable to gold counters.
Exactly.
Essentially is what you're saying.
Out of six counters, exactly.
And then I just added the three.
It's got a pure PGM counters as well, the Impala, Volterra, Northern Platinum.
I included them as well.
So now it brings us to nine counters on the JSE.
If you exclude them out of the JSE, then your performances would have only been 15%
year to date.
So now we're going towards the 40% of your performances.
You probably would have had 40% of the performances.
So somebody on X, on social media, said, well, do me a favor,
just exclude NASPAS and Prozis as well.
Yeah.
That's a good one.
That's 11 stocks.
Well, there goes another 8% of your performances, and you would have been left
with 7%.
So did you not have any of those seven counters in your portfolio?
Your performance year-to-date would have been 7%
exactly versus close to 34%, including those 11.
The same sort of thing that's going on with it's not quite as exaggerated on the
S&P 500 with NVIDIA and all those other ones.
but it is phenomenal over there as well.
And I'm not saying it's scary because it teaches you a lesson, I suppose,
but it does show you the breadth of the JSC is simply not there.
No, it's definitely.
We talked about the Magnificent Seven.
Well, I think we've got the Magnificent Seven on our side as well.
Let's call it Magnificent Eleven.
I'll come up with a phrase.
That's a bit worrying.
I mean, happy to have them in my portfolios and to be in early.
But, I mean, also worrying because...
What do we call it in cycling?
After every uphill there's a downhill.
So I'm worried.
But I mean, like somebody asked me, one of my clients called me up this morning and
he said, well, Scott, you know, well done.
I mean, I'm really happy with this performances.
But what do we do now?
I mean, something that can go up as much as it did.
I mean, speaking, you know, towards the gold prize itself.
I mean, we can see a retracement again just as easy.
And my short answer to his question was, I don't think so,
because the business thesis for the reason why gold is running upwards is still very
much in play.
And just for interest, you and I had this conversation, I think three or four weeks
ago,
I told you that Goldman Sachs came out with a report where they actually
said they were crazy.
I mean, Lindsay, this is...
way off, I don't know if you remember it,
they were crazy to come out and say the gold price will reach $4,000 per ounce,
you know,
by the first quarter of next year.
And everybody was saying, oh man, what are they smoking?
I mean, we've reached it.
So they've updated the report yesterday, basically saying that they've, you know,
$4,000 done and dusted.
They're now calling the gold price...
By year end next year, so December 2026,
they call in the gold price at $4,900 per ounce.
That's the new report that was released.
$4,900 did you say?
What did you say?
$4,900 per ounce.
For goodness sake, for $100, let's call it $5,000 Goldman Sachs.
Don't be stingy, for goodness sake.
When they say that, then you know it's time to put in some protection here,
Skullcum.
That's what I was going to say.
That's what I'm saying.
For the client that phones you up and says, what should we do here?
You're in love with these shares.
They're part of the family now.
So get a big block of put options.
You can't sell the calls to fund the puts because you'll get blown out the water
if there's a melt up and you're going to have to buy back those calls and it'll be
messy.
Just buy some seriously cheap out the money puts.
And when they expire, just keep rolling them over with your profits.
And just in case, because those out-the-money puts for a $100 fall or a
$200 fall in the gold price,
which would still mean it was a bull market, that move will triple the value of
those things, I would have thought.
You're cleverer than me on these matters.
No, you're 100% right.
You are 100% right.
But, I mean, so that's the structure in me.
I think that that might not be a bad idea, you know, way out of the money.
But I mean, let's look at the question of this gentleman and the answer.
My answer was, I mean,
so let's again say that the gold price do retrace again and go back to way down
at $3,500.
None of these six mines that I just mentioned are mining gold for over $2,000
per
ounce.
So as it currently stands...
They're making a huge amount of profit.
Every single day they're mining these gold or yellow metals.
I mean, they're making massive, massive amount of profits, huge amount of free
cash flow, and they've got zero,
zero debt on the balance sheet.
You and I, we've got a few grey ears.
We know that gold miners have never, ever been in such a healthy position, ever.
We've never seen gold miners sitting with zero debt on their balance sheet.
And, of course, and they're raking it in every second that we look at our screen
now.
And I've got 4046.39 up one and a half percent.
They say to themselves, well, let's just sit down again, chaps, because I don't
quite believe these numbers.
It costs us 1600 all in to get this out of the ground.
Sixteen hundred dollars an ounce.
The round is nice and strong and everything.
So all this stuff we're importing.
to keep the mines going.
That's cheaper than it was last year.
And they go through all these things.
They're saying, yeah, our margins are X. I mean, 4,000 minus 1,600,
and that's a high number for some mines I know there.
A margin scale.
They made a big calculator.
Whopping, whopping amounts of money.
They won't know what to do with it.
Yeah, and that's my point.
I mean, you've already had the likes of Harmony coming out and saying, well,
we're not finding any opportunities in the gold market.
But, I mean, we do think copper is yellow enough.
Let's go and buy some copper mines.
I'm joking about this, but it's difficult.
But they did.
And so most of these mines are going to look at this and say, well, we're not
finding opportunities.
communities,
we need to start giving this money back.
Special divs coming up.
There we go.
Suddenly you're going to start hearing the noises of special dividends,
larger dividends going forward.
I mean, again, this is gold mines, Lindsay.
Come on.
I mean, we've never, ever seen this.
When has this ever happened where there's so much cash sloshing around that they
have to say, oh, right,
then special dividend in the next quarter or the next half year or something.
No, I've never heard of it ever since from the time that I went to South Africa to
now, and I really got the gold bug.
I've never seen that before.
Yeah.
No, and I think just to bring it back to the local economy, I mean, this is
definitely going to help South Africa,
help the economic position.
I mean, we're the eighth largest gold producer in the world.
We've mentioned that...
The PGMs are having a field day.
I mean, look at the I mean,
one of my colleagues this morning showed me the graph of palladium,
and palladium is really looking quite juicy technically now.
It's good.
So it had a bit of a recovery now, formed a very, very nice base.
I mean, I must compliment you on both platinum and palladium.
You called that support, that strong support, and now it's looking Looking s-
really juicy.
So we're the second largest palladium producer in the world, largest platinum
producer, largest rhodium producer.
If we just do a few small things right over the next year or
two, South Africa can really, and when I talk about South Africa, I'm talking about
the South African economy,
could really take advantage out of this environment.
Very good.
Let's just stay with mining just for a moment Anglo-American came out with a
statement regarding text their operational review an
updated outlook market seems to like that although it's a buoyant market anyway
because of things that they dig out the ground but
anyway 1.4 percent higher for Anglo-American.
First round came out with a voluntary update today Skunk and with all the
excitement elsewhere didn't look so good or rather the market
didn't think it looks so good.
Did you Have a look at it.
A very quick look, Lindsay Sark.
I couldn't read it.
It's still got to do with this financial conduct.
There's this whole issue that they had recently.
UK motor problem, wasn't it?
There we go.
And it's...
The commission matter.
Yes, it's been settled by the government,
and they've got to pay back these companies that did something naughty when
they were selling cars to people.
And the first round was involved in that.
I think they've got to pay back each person 700 pounds.
It amounts to about 14 billion across the UK.
But obviously, First Rand involved or a division of First Rand involved.
And that's what's leaning on it a bit.
So once that's out the way, not too much to worry about.
But I had to mention that.
Anything else you saw on the JSC today?
Besides all these.
So what we've seen, I think, NEARS this morning is also the IPO of this.
Optasia, don't ask me a lot about the company.
This is a… What's Optasia?
It sounds like a Disney film.
Yeah.
I mean, I think the most important point for me is most probably the fact that
we're seeing
another listing.
That's good.
We've seen a few companies delist and move away from the company.
And it's not going to be a small listing.
I mean, they… The total capital they're looking to raise is eventually going to be
at 6.3 billion rand.
So public offer now is going to be 1.3 billion, and then there's going to be a
private placement of 5 billion.
So 6.3 billion is not a small company, so it had my attention.
So they mentioned the company is an AI fintech company,
so they've got all the right buzzwords.
And this is a very interesting business model.
I mean, they use AI.
It's a company that uses AI and I talk about an extra 5,000 data points
to basically access and use AI to look at the creditworthiness of clients.
And they predominantly focus on microloans, airtime credit,
cash advances, primary for mobile operators.
I've got clients like...
They partner with MTN and Vodacom.
So it's a very interesting business model.
And then it had me dig a little bit deeper.
So there's a company, EPE Capital Partners, where ETH is Capital Exposure
Capital Partners.
And this is also a holding company.
And I don't want to say it's the likes of a RemGrow,
because then some people might take offense and say it's nothing like a
RemGrow.
But it's also a company that invests in a few companies.
And one of these companies, Pretty much 51%
of its NAV is made up out of this Octavia.
So I get a feeling that this is sort of this EPE Capital Partners opportunity to
cash
in a bit, but we'll still see what happens.
But to the listeners out there that say, well, I know the company.
Octasia sounds really good.
I mean.
maybe look at applying for the IPO, could maybe consider buying this EPE
Capital Partners listed on the JSE.
That's an interesting sort of lateral thinking there.
Correct.
Very good.
Okay.
So EPE Capital Partners.
When does this new Disney film list?
That's a good one.
Oxtasia, when is it coming out?
and unfortunately do not have a data.
They talk about...
I've got no idea when the data's out.
I'm trying to look at it.
But it's a definite IPO.
It's coming to the JSC.
They're talking about South Africa's biggest RP in a year.
Most probably still this year.
But just back to EPE Cattle Path.
It's trading at about 7 rand a share.
The net asset value of this company, if you add all these
these optasias and all the companies they own is worth about 8.57 so they're trading
at a 18 percent
discount to nav not as juicy as as the 40 percent uh rim grows trading but here's an
interesting one and and mike i caught a
company inside the portfolio another company that's been been in the news let's
call the past two years
is is a possible listing of time bank and Just for interest's sake,
EPE Capital Partners, one of the companies that they own is also Time Bank.
So it's not only this Disney movie.
I'm always going to look at this company now.
Yeah, I know you will.
It's very bad.
We'll get into trouble if we keep on saying that arrival.
I just took my pencil at the thought of that.
Skulk, tell me about Time again because there's a book just been released, I
believe, which is co-authored by
Bruce Whitfield and...
And...
Gosh, I can't, Neville, not Neville.
Adrian Saville.
Adrian Saville, that's it, yes, yes, yes.
And it's all about that.
Who's behind that again?
Some serious people.
Yeah, it's got the right names behind it.
I'm going to make it injustice if I, but I'm talking about really, really big,
big names.
that we can't think of at the moment.
I can't mention any one of them.
Exactly.
I'm sure it's one of the first-round people, ex-first-round people that are
doing it.
I'm sure it is.
Yes, it's Michael Yordan, if I'm not mistaken.
Yes, that's it.
I'm going to Google this now because I think it is beloved.
I think it's Michael Yordan.
And then they partnered up with the African Rainbow guys.
Let me just quickly just confirm that.
Yes, there we go.
Kies shareholders is African Rainbow Minerals, African Rainbow Capital.
Yes.
And that's
Patrice Mutsepe and what's that person that was involved with Sun Lama and he
moved away from
Sun Lama as well.
But also, I'm 99% sure that
Michael Goddard has also got some.
some involvement there.
But anyway, some people that know what they're doing.
And is it a confirmed listing or just one of those vicious rumors?
No, it's a time, time.
No, a time bank has always been a vicious rumor.
There was a rumor that it would actually list before the, before the year end.
But that's, that eventually where we sort of said, no, they don't need to, to list
this company.
And, but there's always been every now and then it picks up that there's a, there's a
possible.
possible listing you know of time bank um i think eventually it might just happen
i'm sure it will
Well, it'll be good.
I mean, it's nice to hear something that's not leaving the JSC, but in fact, going in
the opposite direction and joining it.
Right, Scott, we've babbled on too much with our enthusiasm about certain asset
classes and certain securities.
So I'm going to bring us back down to earth now and give you the real dope, the
real deal.
And it's the prices.
The dollar round is 1716.
Who'd have thought it that it might change its big figure?
Not from 18 to 19, from 19 to 20, but from 17 to 16.
Well done, the rand.
British pound against the rand, 23 on the nail.
And the euro rand is 1993.
That's the first time it's been below 20 for quite a while.
Euro dollar is 116.15.
This is a strange thing, Scott.
The dollar's gone from like 118.50, 119 euro dollar, now to 116,
and yet the gold price has gone up.
I mean, the...
The relationship between gold and the dollar is weak dollar, strong gold.
Not strong dollar, strong gold.
So it's independent strength from that yellow metal of yours.
British pound against the dollar, $1.34.
What else have we got here?
Oh, yes, gold price.
Bear market, sell, sell, sell, $4,039.
Now it's fallen $5 in the last half hour.
Goodness me, I can't believe I'm telling you this.
$4,039 up 1.4%.
Oh, my word.
So another $39 as well.
Yeah, that's all over.
Platinum is $16.92.
Extraordinary.
At $42 an ounce, 2.6% higher.
And palladium up 7.25% today.
$100 an ounce better at $14.73.
Okay, on to other commodities.
And as we agreed upon a few weeks ago, We include copper in our bulleted.
It's coming off a bit.
It's down 0.3%, but it's above $5 a pound in New York.
$5.03, $5.035 per pound.
That's quite a move, the $5 move.
It was $4.50 not long ago.
So copper on the way up, as we predicted.
And crude oil now, $62.88, up nearly 2% for West Texas crude.
And Brent crude up 1.6%, $66.
uh 50 natural gas incidentally down 4.1 percent uh bitcoin went to
an all-time record high a couple of days ago 125 000 odd it is now 122 250 which is
up
a third of a percent on the day the south african 10-year bond it's
having a go again it's nine basis points down the yield nine point zero nine
percent so up the bonds well done
that's with the strong round of course in the us tenure is
4.12%, which is a quarter of a percent down, or what is that, just one and a bit
basis points.
S&P 500 futures closing in on 6,800.
What a performance.
The day's range is 6,758 to 6,793.
It's on 6,793 now, all-time record highs, and that's for the December futures.
So all-time records on the gold, the S&P.
And also the Bitcoin price a couple of days ago.
What a week it's been already.
God, Scott, I'm exhausted.
Can you please give me your ups and downs on the JSC?
And I'll give you mine in a moment.
Yes.
I think before I do that, I just want to clarify what I said earlier.
Looking at Don's involvement with Time Bank, I need to correct that immediately.
I think Michael will give me a hard attack.
since he's involved with time back it's actually with bank zero that's where
michael radon's involved but time back is in fact as
as i mentioned it's a part of patrice matip is uh arc or african african river
capsule yes okay
good and also you can have a look at that book that we spoke of that'll tell you
everything about it should you it go to market and you want to
know a little bit more apparently a very good read if you like that sort of thing
Uh, ScalpJSC, please.
Not the indices yet, the individual movers.
Oh, individual movers, I just wanted to say, I mean, you gave it all away when we
started.
That's all right, you can...
But individual movers for today, you know, let's start at the losers for today.
We had Sappy down 4.6%, Hyde Prop down 4.1%. First round,
as you mentioned, you know, for reasons very unfortunate, 3.6%
down.
down 3.5%.
And Afrimat, after a trading update yesterday, which didn't look too bad, that
was down 2%.
Let me quickly see if there was any of the companies that had dividends, because I
know
High Prop was most probably a dividend situation, yes.
So out of those, High Prop was a dividend drop, so not to worry there.
Then, on the winners for today.
Leave the best till last low, they call him.
Okay, go ahead.
There we go.
Camelot is no surprise.
6.9% up today, Valtteri.
Northern platinum, 6% up.
Impala platinum, 5.7% up.
5.2% for Sabania Stillwater.
This is an odd one out.
Pick and pay.
That's done 4.94% for today.
What an F4.
Yeah, that's a strange, strange one.
Isn't it?
Naturally, in the top 10, top 15, we've also had Goldfields up 3.5%,
Angler Gold up 3.1%, and Harmony up 2.6%.
So, yeah, it's sort of a Jay's year of old today.
Definitely a Jay's year of old.
Absolutely brilliant.
Yeah, I've got all the same ones.
I've got, you know, Sappy Story's been a big one in the last week or so.
Still on the downside.
but um I think now, with the drumroll,
you've got to have a look at the indices because I see that the resources have been
the standout winners on the JSC today.
But give us all the details because it is extraordinary.
So, yeah, I just want to quickly mention a quick factoid.
First round was egg stiff.
So there's a two round 47 egg stiff story as well.
So that do change it a bit because we've seen a movement of...
2.91 today on the downward, and it had a 2.47 dividend.
Flat on the day.
It was still negative.
I mean, all the other banks had a really positive day.
So let's call it that announcement did affect it negatively, but not as negative
as we would have thought.
So here we go.
JSE, I mean, you gave it away at the start of the program.
Under the 10,971 points, that's up one.
point four percent i'm going to leave the best for last industrials up
68 basis points while financials were just in the green up a point one nine percent
and the best
was and the winner was by a country mile resource index up today in
total
3.71 man oh man oh man what a performance
isn't that brilliant what was the value traded today please skulk So value traded
for today.
Yeah, Austin, not a slow day.
It was just shy of 27 billion traded to the market for today.
Not bad at all.
With a strong round, that makes quite a good dollar sum.
Skalk, it's been a very exciting day.
It will continue to be so in New York hours, I'm sure.
What will it be next week?
I don't know.
But keep me in touch and keep us in touch on that put option situation.
I know you can't talk on behalf of clients, but just see if you've...
investigated i'd love to see what they're charging these days uh for gold put
options will they be incredibly low because the prices
go on shooting up or will they start to get a little bit more expensive because of
the volatility in the market because of the vix
on the on the gold market will they uh will the premiums of the put options start
to go up i'd like to know that you'll
report upon that next week of course yeah let's let's have a look that'll be
interesting to look at okay
Jolly Good Sculptor is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
And that was the five o'clock shadow.
The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and
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