WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:04.551 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.372 --> 00:00:09.153 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:09.153 --> 00:00:09.259 shadow. 4 00:00:09.259 --> 00:00:15.520 And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Glo, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth 5 00:00:15.520 --> 00:00:17.520 Old Oak in Cape Town. 6 00:00:17.520 --> 00:00:19.434 We didn't speak last week because of a public holiday in South Africa, Skulk. 7 00:00:19.872 --> 00:00:25.372 But what's happened since we last spoke two weeks ago is the same old story. 8 00:00:26.090 --> 00:00:27.528 Things that have been going up. 9 00:00:28.004 --> 00:00:33.370 for a few months now, a few weeks now at least, continue to go up and it's all 10 00:00:33.370 --> 00:00:33.508 fine. 11 00:00:33.530 --> 00:00:34.569 Everything's fine and well. 12 00:00:36.331 --> 00:00:38.058 That's an understatement, Lindsay. 13 00:00:39.355 --> 00:00:41.620 We'll come to what you're talking about in a moment. 14 00:00:41.636 --> 00:00:47.526 But just generally speaking, nobody seems to care about anything that's thrown at 15 00:00:47.526 --> 00:00:49.526 them, market participants that is. 16 00:00:49.526 --> 00:00:51.526 No, no, no. 17 00:00:51.526 --> 00:00:56.167 No, markets enjoyed in general one of the best Septembers in years. 18 00:00:58.089 --> 00:01:00.370 After, I mean, we went into September. 19 00:01:00.531 --> 00:01:04.015 I can't believe we're sitting here, Lindsay, on the 1st of October. 20 00:01:04.016 --> 00:01:05.277 Fourth quarter, yes. 21 00:01:05.278 --> 00:01:10.281 Yeah, talking about September as a distant memory. 22 00:01:11.023 --> 00:01:11.723 Oh, man. 23 00:01:12.124 --> 00:01:17.671 I'm still going into 2025, as you just mentioned, going into the fourth quarter. 24 00:01:18.093 --> 00:01:21.734 But, I mean, what a first, let's call it, 25 00:01:24.187 --> 00:01:25.374 nine months it's been. 26 00:01:25.781 --> 00:01:26.890 I mean, there is a... 27 00:01:27.436 --> 00:01:30.297 close to 32% up year to date. 28 00:01:30.377 --> 00:01:33.696 I mean, that's just crazy to think about. 29 00:01:34.856 --> 00:01:38.840 I mean, and the month, last month, it's just crazy. 30 00:01:38.856 --> 00:01:44.575 I mean, in Rand terms, we've done 6.6% last month alone. 31 00:01:46.075 --> 00:01:48.793 And if you put it in dollar terms, it's even more. 32 00:01:48.794 --> 00:01:54.778 It's like 8.3% in dollar terms compared to the MSCI All Country World's performance 33 00:01:54.778 --> 00:01:54.884 of... 34 00:01:55.224 --> 00:01:57.706 Also, in dollar terms, 3.6%. 35 00:01:57.707 --> 00:02:04.034 It's been a great, great month, but definite trend, trend towards emerging 36 00:02:04.034 --> 00:02:06.034 markets in general. 37 00:02:06.034 --> 00:02:10.581 And when we look at the MSCI Emerging Market Index in dollar terms last month, 38 00:02:10.979 --> 00:02:17.760 also outperforming the All-Country World Index, not doing what South Africa has 39 00:02:17.760 --> 00:02:19.760 done, but at 7.2% for the month. 40 00:02:19.760 --> 00:02:23.916 I think any investor out there would say, where do I sign if they can get those type 41 00:02:23.916 --> 00:02:25.916 of performances? 42 00:02:25.916 --> 00:02:30.642 September, of course, is statistically the worst month if you go back 150 years or 43 00:02:30.642 --> 00:02:30.760 something. 44 00:02:30.760 --> 00:02:35.181 So that's the exception that we've just experienced that proves the rule. 45 00:02:35.220 --> 00:02:37.267 And October has got a reputation. 46 00:02:37.767 --> 00:02:40.743 It's got a bad reputation, but generally isn't too bad. 47 00:02:40.790 --> 00:02:42.602 So maybe those rules will be reversed. 48 00:02:42.618 --> 00:02:45.899 Maybe October, like the seasons are changing with climate change. 49 00:02:46.181 --> 00:02:48.946 Maybe the trends on the stock market are changing, Skull. 50 00:02:49.118 --> 00:02:52.884 And we're going to get a big wallop in October for some reason. 51 00:02:53.188 --> 00:02:57.631 Although the jobs data today from the United States hasn't phased anybody. 52 00:02:58.072 --> 00:03:01.076 And the U.S. government shutdown hasn't either. 53 00:03:01.533 --> 00:03:03.338 So what are you going to need? 54 00:03:03.916 --> 00:03:05.900 What are you going to need to stop being bullish, Skulk? 55 00:03:06.924 --> 00:03:08.604 Evidently, I love a lot more. 56 00:03:09.682 --> 00:03:10.382 Evidently. 57 00:03:10.382 --> 00:03:16.838 Because, I mean, there's a few government employees out there that will argue and 58 00:03:16.838 --> 00:03:18.838 say, well, 59 00:03:18.838 --> 00:03:19.635 I'm most probably not going to get paid. 60 00:03:20.188 --> 00:03:22.310 if things go on the way it's going. 61 00:03:22.311 --> 00:03:24.351 And I'm talking about the US government employees. 62 00:03:25.054 --> 00:03:29.558 I mean, yeah, it's a crazy, crazy environment. 63 00:03:31.081 --> 00:03:34.261 But for now, I mean, it's just wonderful to be in. 64 00:03:34.683 --> 00:03:39.152 I mean, to give the feedback, the general optimism. 65 00:03:39.589 --> 00:03:41.292 And actually, I mean, I mentioned it. 66 00:03:41.293 --> 00:03:47.011 I mean, we're talking about growth assets or assets that should be growing well. 67 00:03:47.448 --> 00:03:48.789 But I mean, listen to this, Lindsay. 68 00:03:48.790 --> 00:03:53.533 I mean, we talked about the 6.6% 69 00:03:53.872 --> 00:03:55.794 growth in the JSE. 70 00:03:56.576 --> 00:04:01.521 And if you take in Rand terms, the emerging market index has done close to 71 00:04:01.521 --> 00:04:01.784 5%, 72 00:04:01.784 --> 00:04:05.029 4.77% to be exact. 73 00:04:05.482 --> 00:04:11.247 But I mean, local bonds, the return for September, 3.3%. 74 00:04:11.326 --> 00:04:14.935 If you invest it in global bonds, I'm talking about global. 75 00:04:15.520 --> 00:04:19.223 The Govey Index, 2.1%. 76 00:04:19.224 --> 00:04:26.012 I mean, so, you know, even the two, let's call it less risky assets, local bonds and 77 00:04:26.012 --> 00:04:28.012 global bonds, 78 00:04:28.012 --> 00:04:31.075 they also outperformed the MSCI World Index. 79 00:04:31.575 --> 00:04:32.731 So, yeah, it's been... 80 00:04:33.091 --> 00:04:36.356 Well, the last quarter for bonds was extraordinary, Scott. 81 00:04:36.357 --> 00:04:37.606 I mean, you talk about them being... 82 00:04:37.622 --> 00:04:43.294 I mean, the whole behavior of bonds has changed in recent times, I believe. 83 00:04:43.536 --> 00:04:46.059 Let me just have a look at this chart I'm trying to get up. 84 00:04:46.079 --> 00:04:46.779 There we go. 85 00:04:46.779 --> 00:04:47.198 The one year. 86 00:04:47.198 --> 00:04:49.063 No, let's go six months. 87 00:04:49.723 --> 00:04:51.641 Let's go back to Liberation Day. 88 00:04:52.368 --> 00:04:55.625 Back just after Liberation Day, the South African 89 00:04:56.391 --> 00:05:02.516 10-year yield got to a high of 11.165%. 90 00:05:02.547 --> 00:05:08.829 Just after Trump stood up there with that ridiculous cardboard thing that he had, 91 00:05:08.829 --> 00:05:10.829 went to 11.16%. 92 00:05:10.829 --> 00:05:12.907 Currently 9.17% and did go close to 9%. 93 00:05:13.292 --> 00:05:17.317 That is a massive 150 basis points nearly, Skulk. 94 00:05:18.056 --> 00:05:20.157 More than 150 basis points. 95 00:05:20.720 --> 00:05:25.782 And it's a staggering return for what is supposed to be a staid and boring asset 96 00:05:25.782 --> 00:05:27.782 class. 97 00:05:27.782 --> 00:05:29.782 Exactly. 98 00:05:29.782 --> 00:05:31.782 Exactly. 99 00:05:31.782 --> 00:05:33.782 That's where I might get to. 100 00:05:33.782 --> 00:05:35.782 So it's an environment where 101 00:05:35.782 --> 00:05:38.681 I think clients are just flourishing because invested in risky assets or 102 00:05:39.134 --> 00:05:41.884 growth assets like equities, local and abroad. 103 00:05:42.118 --> 00:05:45.715 um Or, you know, less risky assets like bonds. 104 00:05:45.795 --> 00:05:52.125 I mean, even, I want to say not just even less risky, I mean, more your conservative 105 00:05:52.125 --> 00:05:54.125 type of investment. 106 00:05:54.125 --> 00:05:54.941 I mean, bonds, global bonds. 107 00:05:54.962 --> 00:05:58.224 I mean, if you look at international bonds, 108 00:05:58.225 --> 00:06:03.490 global bond index in round terms over the past 12 months has given you a return, 109 00:06:03.646 --> 00:06:07.716 a total return of 23% over 12 months. 110 00:06:08.091 --> 00:06:09.896 Oh, man, what a pleasure. 111 00:06:10.443 --> 00:06:12.396 What a pleasure to be in. 112 00:06:12.411 --> 00:06:19.021 So, yeah, it's a great, great, but where I want to get to, I mean, is, you know, 113 00:06:19.161 --> 00:06:19.911 the commodities. 114 00:06:20.099 --> 00:06:21.505 I mean, the resources. 115 00:06:23.813 --> 00:06:26.755 I mean, this has really been helping South Africa a lot. 116 00:06:27.157 --> 00:06:30.841 I mean, do you want to take a guess, just a wild stab? 117 00:06:30.919 --> 00:06:31.619 Yes. 118 00:06:31.622 --> 00:06:35.583 I mean, I've just told you that the market has grown. 119 00:06:35.943 --> 00:06:39.122 The South African market has done 6.6% in September. 120 00:06:39.404 --> 00:06:42.669 You want to take a wild stab and say, what did the 121 00:06:43.825 --> 00:06:47.075 RSI index done over that same period? 122 00:06:47.076 --> 00:06:49.794 In September, just the month of September, not the quarter. 123 00:06:50.307 --> 00:06:51.589 Okay. 124 00:06:51.590 --> 00:06:52.370 And you can go wild. 125 00:06:52.371 --> 00:06:56.132 12.3%. 126 00:06:56.133 --> 00:06:56.835 That is wild. 127 00:06:56.836 --> 00:06:59.019 That's pretty much double what the JSC has done. 128 00:06:59.433 --> 00:07:05.604 But you need to go more than double what you've actually just said because the RISI 129 00:07:05.604 --> 00:07:07.604 index did 130 00:07:07.604 --> 00:07:08.808 28.1% a second below. 131 00:07:09.073 --> 00:07:09.773 Yes. 132 00:07:09.773 --> 00:07:10.086 Wow. 133 00:07:10.386 --> 00:07:11.086 Yes. 134 00:07:11.808 --> 00:07:14.104 Year-to-date, 121%. 135 00:07:14.354 --> 00:07:15.136 Take it and run. 136 00:07:15.354 --> 00:07:16.151 Come on now. 137 00:07:17.089 --> 00:07:17.792 Don't look at your job. 138 00:07:17.948 --> 00:07:18.648 Get off. 139 00:07:18.648 --> 00:07:19.558 Off to the Bahamas. 140 00:07:19.943 --> 00:07:25.207 Take your money, take your client's money, some of it, and say, we've got to do this. 141 00:07:25.347 --> 00:07:26.890 It's responsible investing. 142 00:07:26.968 --> 00:07:28.410 What am I doing telling you what to do? 143 00:07:28.675 --> 00:07:35.660 But I mean, when I see those sort of numbers, and if I'd been away on holiday 144 00:07:35.660 --> 00:07:37.660 and hadn't looked at the screen, I'd say, thank you very much. 145 00:07:37.660 --> 00:07:39.660 You know what I mean? 146 00:07:39.660 --> 00:07:41.660 No, no, no. 147 00:07:41.660 --> 00:07:43.660 No, for sure. 148 00:07:43.660 --> 00:07:45.660 This is the environment. 149 00:07:45.660 --> 00:07:47.660 This is typically, I mean, we as investment professionals, 150 00:07:47.660 --> 00:07:48.175 usually you've got these reports. 151 00:07:48.539 --> 00:07:54.185 Things like, for instance, if you've been out of the market for the past, let's call 152 00:07:54.185 --> 00:07:54.604 it, 153 00:07:54.646 --> 00:08:00.587 best 20 days out of the past 20 years, how your growth would have dropped, etc., etc. 154 00:08:01.353 --> 00:08:06.330 But I mean, this is just a proof, you know, the proof of the pudding is in the 155 00:08:06.330 --> 00:08:06.624 eating. 156 00:08:06.624 --> 00:08:08.501 This is case in point. 157 00:08:08.923 --> 00:08:15.626 If you sort of got hesitant a few years ago and you said, well, I'm really not 158 00:08:15.626 --> 00:08:17.626 interested. 159 00:08:17.626 --> 00:08:17.673 This market is making me worried. 160 00:08:18.175 --> 00:08:24.920 so the african environment politically is not looking good or just end of last year 161 00:08:24.920 --> 00:08:26.920 said well we've 162 00:08:26.920 --> 00:08:31.807 done done done done a hell of a lot let's let's get out of the market i mean year to 163 00:08:31.807 --> 00:08:33.807 date you would have missed pretty much a solid 164 00:08:33.807 --> 00:08:35.807 set of return but we 165 00:08:35.807 --> 00:08:39.541 are a a commodity producing country um and uh you started off 166 00:08:40.197 --> 00:08:43.244 hey but it's more of the same gold price 167 00:08:43.963 --> 00:08:48.836 12 growth in in in september alone In dollar terms? 168 00:08:48.837 --> 00:08:49.537 What was the high? 169 00:08:49.537 --> 00:08:51.479 39.30 or something like that? 170 00:08:52.239 --> 00:08:52.961 In dollar terms? 171 00:08:53.879 --> 00:08:56.247 I can tell you because I've actually got it in front of me. 172 00:08:57.043 --> 00:08:59.426 It holds a strange fascination for me. 173 00:08:59.427 --> 00:09:01.965 Because this is going parabolic now. 174 00:09:02.512 --> 00:09:04.504 This is like a flagpole. 175 00:09:04.692 --> 00:09:06.145 This is ridiculously high. 176 00:09:06.770 --> 00:09:09.582 I mean, the Goldman Sachs report came out, I think, a few weeks ago. 177 00:09:10.098 --> 00:09:11.645 They brought a report. 178 00:09:12.864 --> 00:09:15.536 I want to say it could be six weeks ago. 179 00:09:15.537 --> 00:09:16.598 It could be five weeks ago. 180 00:09:16.629 --> 00:09:21.601 but there's the past month, where they brought a report where they said, well, 181 00:09:21.879 --> 00:09:28.226 they see the gold price at $4,000 in I think the first or second quarter of next 182 00:09:28.226 --> 00:09:28.442 year. 183 00:09:28.882 --> 00:09:32.109 And I think people will say, well, I mean, 184 00:09:33.429 --> 00:09:38.570 after what gold has done recently, man, what are you smoking? 185 00:09:38.914 --> 00:09:45.023 Yeah, we're sitting four weeks later, call it, and gold price already just out of 186 00:09:45.023 --> 00:09:47.023 $100. 187 00:09:47.023 --> 00:09:49.023 of those levels. 188 00:09:49.023 --> 00:09:49.640 But, I mean, it's not just gold. 189 00:09:49.718 --> 00:09:55.245 I mean, if you look at the platinum price, that has increased over 15% in dollar 190 00:09:55.245 --> 00:09:57.245 terms of September. 191 00:09:57.245 --> 00:10:01.128 Year-to-date, that's a growth of 74% in the platinum price. 192 00:10:01.917 --> 00:10:05.651 Palladium, that was up 13% in September. 193 00:10:06.136 --> 00:10:08.901 Year-to-date, also 36% up. 194 00:10:10.026 --> 00:10:10.776 This is great. 195 00:10:10.808 --> 00:10:12.776 This is great for South Africa. 196 00:10:13.183 --> 00:10:19.651 because we're the largest platinum producer, the second largest platinum 197 00:10:19.651 --> 00:10:21.651 producer, the eighth largest gold producer. 198 00:10:21.651 --> 00:10:26.838 I'm just a bit disappointed because I think, what was it, a day or two ago, we 199 00:10:26.838 --> 00:10:26.999 actually, 200 00:10:27.096 --> 00:10:32.221 it was yesterday, where we had the current account, where that came out. 201 00:10:32.237 --> 00:10:34.018 And that was a bit disappointing. 202 00:10:34.019 --> 00:10:36.424 We were still trading at a surplus, which is good. 203 00:10:37.081 --> 00:10:39.612 But that came down to only $4 billion. 204 00:10:39.627 --> 00:10:40.690 That's quite a hefty... 205 00:10:41.243 --> 00:10:43.686 decrease in our surplus, 206 00:10:44.567 --> 00:10:51.331 and they actually contributed the large decline towards our 207 00:10:51.471 --> 00:10:53.112 exports of precious metals. 208 00:10:53.733 --> 00:10:58.559 So, this is a bit disappointing because when you see these type of movements, 209 00:10:59.200 --> 00:11:05.247 and one could maybe argue that's maybe why we're seeing these type of movements 210 00:11:05.247 --> 00:11:07.247 because if South Africa is not 211 00:11:07.247 --> 00:11:11.028 exporting enough or the way they've been doing, then naturally there will be more 212 00:11:11.028 --> 00:11:13.028 buyers than sellers. 213 00:11:13.950 --> 00:11:19.356 That might be one of the reasons why some of these commodity prices are doing what 214 00:11:19.356 --> 00:11:21.356 it's doing. 215 00:11:21.356 --> 00:11:22.544 But yeah, still, in general, I think this is very, very good. 216 00:11:23.017 --> 00:11:26.220 And look at the rent, rent supporting that view as well. 217 00:11:26.342 --> 00:11:30.924 How much do you think platinum is up so far year on year? 218 00:11:31.447 --> 00:11:32.147 Not year to date. 219 00:11:32.147 --> 00:11:32.986 Oh, no, hold a second. 220 00:11:33.010 --> 00:11:36.111 Let's go year to date, platinum and US dollars. 221 00:11:36.150 --> 00:11:37.228 Come on, give it a stab. 222 00:11:37.252 --> 00:11:39.275 And don't cheat, please. 223 00:11:40.150 --> 00:11:42.838 I thought you'd know it because I've looked at it earlier this week. 224 00:11:42.839 --> 00:11:43.539 Go on then. 225 00:11:43.539 --> 00:11:44.791 So you can tell the listeners. 226 00:11:45.744 --> 00:11:47.822 As we speak, and it's down a bit today. 227 00:11:48.201 --> 00:11:51.004 75.5% year to date. 228 00:11:51.225 --> 00:11:55.088 75.5% year to date, the platinum price. 229 00:11:55.428 --> 00:11:57.393 When it broke, it just ran and ran and ran. 230 00:11:57.432 --> 00:12:02.596 There was that massive base on the graph, which is always a good thing to look at. 231 00:12:03.057 --> 00:12:03.900 And away it went. 232 00:12:04.353 --> 00:12:07.041 And silver and gold up in the 40s, you know. 233 00:12:07.635 --> 00:12:09.666 If you're an orange juice drinker, that's also good. 234 00:12:09.667 --> 00:12:10.963 I'm looking at the commodities now. 235 00:12:11.010 --> 00:12:11.710 You've got me going. 236 00:12:12.072 --> 00:12:16.885 If you're an orange juice drinker, the orange juice price is down 50%, but coffee 237 00:12:16.885 --> 00:12:18.885 up 238 00:12:18.885 --> 00:12:23.541 49 and a half percent which is there's no sign of that going down the commodity 239 00:12:23.541 --> 00:12:25.541 board is 240 00:12:25.541 --> 00:12:30.564 wild potatoes down 72 percent anyway yeah capiteg let's get 241 00:12:30.642 --> 00:12:36.939 back to earth now capitex results came out we knew they'd be good the market likes it 242 00:12:36.939 --> 00:12:38.939 but the market likes the market so whatever 243 00:12:38.939 --> 00:12:43.002 what did it say anything new no i mean it's just more of the same for this 244 00:12:43.002 --> 00:12:45.002 company i mean it's uh 245 00:12:45.002 --> 00:12:45.892 So headline earnings up 26%. 246 00:12:46.872 --> 00:12:49.716 I mean, so that's really looking good. 247 00:12:49.814 --> 00:12:51.974 They're still trading at an ROE of 31. 248 00:12:51.975 --> 00:12:53.099 I mean, this is what we want to see. 249 00:12:53.716 --> 00:13:00.528 When you value banks, you don't really look at their PE ratios. 250 00:13:00.950 --> 00:13:02.950 You like to look at their price to books. 251 00:13:03.825 --> 00:13:09.138 And usually there, when you say you look at the price to book and you look at the 252 00:13:09.138 --> 00:13:09.307 ROE, 253 00:13:09.528 --> 00:13:11.919 The ROE is trading. 254 00:13:12.741 --> 00:13:17.966 lowish, then usually the bank should be trading at a lowish price to book. 255 00:13:18.466 --> 00:13:20.009 And inversely the same thing. 256 00:13:20.669 --> 00:13:25.896 Now, we know that Capitec is trading at these crazy, crazy price to book. 257 00:13:26.513 --> 00:13:32.685 I've read somewhere it might be the most expensive bank in the world on a price to 258 00:13:32.685 --> 00:13:34.685 book basis. 259 00:13:34.685 --> 00:13:38.419 But I mean, to 2024, they had a return on equity of 29%. 260 00:13:38.420 --> 00:13:41.263 This set of results came out 31%. 261 00:13:41.941 --> 00:13:48.448 And even the book value increased by 17%. 262 00:13:48.549 --> 00:13:54.053 So, yeah, no, share price again reacted greatly. 263 00:13:54.092 --> 00:13:56.397 I mean, up 3% for today. 264 00:13:57.397 --> 00:13:59.717 It's just a bank that's going from strength to strength. 265 00:13:59.733 --> 00:14:02.077 A great, great South African story. 266 00:14:02.374 --> 00:14:04.405 What about the SPAR trading update? 267 00:14:04.406 --> 00:14:06.170 I think it was a voluntary trading update. 268 00:14:06.217 --> 00:14:09.545 The market seemed to like that one up about 3.5%, 4%, I think. 269 00:14:10.453 --> 00:14:12.756 Yeah, close to 4% as well. 270 00:14:13.137 --> 00:14:14.699 Voluntary uptake was good. 271 00:14:15.379 --> 00:14:18.082 I mean, it does show the numbers looking good. 272 00:14:18.684 --> 00:14:20.746 Just put in context, we had 273 00:14:23.129 --> 00:14:26.129 Boxer numbers that came out on Monday. 274 00:14:26.887 --> 00:14:28.887 And I don't know if you've seen, it was a very, 275 00:14:28.949 --> 00:14:35.777 very interesting move because Boxer came out with a great trading statement as well 276 00:14:35.777 --> 00:14:37.777 as stating that 277 00:14:37.777 --> 00:14:38.465 they've grown, they've turned over. 278 00:14:39.557 --> 00:14:40.418 And immediately, 279 00:14:40.798 --> 00:14:47.505 most of the investors out there sort of made the assumption that for them to 280 00:14:47.505 --> 00:14:47.545 because remember, 281 00:14:47.864 --> 00:14:53.849 the South African retail pool or food retailer pool is not growing. 282 00:14:54.450 --> 00:14:55.935 It's pretty much the same size. 283 00:14:55.936 --> 00:15:01.981 So for a company like Boxer to grow the way it's done over the past 12 months, 284 00:15:02.341 --> 00:15:08.606 it had to go and take a market share of some of these other companies. 285 00:15:09.161 --> 00:15:16.063 And over the same time, I think Boxer on Monday, that was also up something like 2% 286 00:15:16.063 --> 00:15:18.063 or 3%. 287 00:15:18.063 --> 00:15:22.747 Over the same day, or training day, Spar was down 3%, 2% or 3%. 288 00:15:23.083 --> 00:15:28.918 And I think there was no real reason why Spar had to decline on Monday. 289 00:15:28.919 --> 00:15:31.950 So I think today's movement was sort of, oh, okay, 290 00:15:31.965 --> 00:15:38.012 so clearly Boxer didn't really go and take Spar's... uh, 291 00:15:39.554 --> 00:15:44.640 let's call it clients, SPAR is still doing fine. 292 00:15:44.699 --> 00:15:50.488 And I think this movement today was sort of just a, whew, it's fine for SPAR. 293 00:15:51.633 --> 00:15:52.333 Yes, okay. 294 00:15:52.333 --> 00:15:55.774 Well, that's a welcome relief because Spar has been a bit all over the place 295 00:15:55.774 --> 00:15:55.833 recently. 296 00:15:56.294 --> 00:15:57.915 Anything else happened over the last two weeks? 297 00:15:57.954 --> 00:16:01.637 You've given us Boxer, you've given us what's happened today, Skalk. 298 00:16:01.958 --> 00:16:05.512 Was there one thing that I've missed while you've been off? 299 00:16:06.536 --> 00:16:12.700 No, I think in general, market-wise, there was no big, 300 00:16:13.372 --> 00:16:14.622 let's call it, surprises. 301 00:16:14.903 --> 00:16:20.294 I think the only thing that's really standing out is this AGOA arrangement. 302 00:16:21.082 --> 00:16:25.725 I mean, we know now it's now finished. 303 00:16:25.726 --> 00:16:28.428 I mean, and they haven't addressed it. 304 00:16:29.108 --> 00:16:31.334 I know President Serafim Aboula, 305 00:16:31.374 --> 00:16:38.374 he actually did address it and spoke and asked that they look at 306 00:16:38.405 --> 00:16:39.105 this. 307 00:16:39.105 --> 00:16:41.936 And I think, yeah, I think U.S. 308 00:16:42.030 --> 00:16:45.327 are sitting with a lot of problems as we're currently sitting. 309 00:16:45.358 --> 00:16:47.483 You spoke about the shutdown. 310 00:16:47.952 --> 00:16:53.380 and I think I mean I think Trump has got 99 problems and 311 00:16:53.841 --> 00:16:56.183 Algoa is just most probably not one of them currently. 312 00:16:56.425 --> 00:16:57.726 But for us, it's a big one. 313 00:16:57.983 --> 00:17:02.230 It's a big one for us and it's a big one for countries like Lesotho, 314 00:17:02.550 --> 00:17:09.433 who actually do export a lot of clothing from their side 315 00:17:09.651 --> 00:17:10.479 towards the US. 316 00:17:10.511 --> 00:17:14.886 Well, for the size of the country, a lot of clothing, a lot of jeans, for example, 317 00:17:14.886 --> 00:17:16.886 yes. 318 00:17:16.886 --> 00:17:18.323 but I was just looking at Alibaba and... 319 00:17:18.753 --> 00:17:25.699 nvidia during the month of september if you put up a graph of any alibaba versus 320 00:17:25.699 --> 00:17:27.699 nvidia alibaba's gone 321 00:17:27.699 --> 00:17:31.543 in september he's talking about the month of september from 120 to 322 00:17:31.566 --> 00:17:33.129 180 or so 60. 323 00:17:33.191 --> 00:17:39.472 so that's a 50 rise for alibaba in in um just the month of september 324 00:17:40.035 --> 00:17:45.957 and um if you'd have been buying that against nvidia that's gone from what 325 00:17:45.958 --> 00:17:48.126 165 5 to 326 00:17:48.686 --> 00:17:55.293 180. So virtually nothing compared to Alibaba, which is the new big thing, 327 00:17:55.355 --> 00:17:56.055 isn't it? 328 00:17:56.055 --> 00:17:58.316 You get out of your NVIDIA, you get into Alibaba. 329 00:17:58.355 --> 00:18:00.215 That's what people have been saying for a while now. 330 00:18:01.738 --> 00:18:02.438 I don't know. 331 00:18:02.438 --> 00:18:03.348 It's all a bit wild. 332 00:18:03.349 --> 00:18:04.941 It's like the Wild West out there, Skulk. 333 00:18:06.629 --> 00:18:10.785 Yeah, I mean, you and I, we've chatted about this before. 334 00:18:10.801 --> 00:18:13.348 And just cards on the table. 335 00:18:13.363 --> 00:18:16.801 I mean, I am an investor of Alibaba. 336 00:18:17.169 --> 00:18:17.869 Alibaba. 337 00:18:17.869 --> 00:18:18.291 Well done. 338 00:18:19.131 --> 00:18:22.152 Yeah, no, it's I think, you know, 339 00:18:22.414 --> 00:18:28.558 the conversation we had is where you take and there's a few nice ETFs 340 00:18:29.402 --> 00:18:30.102 that look at it. 341 00:18:30.102 --> 00:18:32.168 I mean, but the one that I'm well, 342 00:18:32.222 --> 00:18:39.043 the two that I'm looking at is basically your Chinese internet companies versus 343 00:18:39.105 --> 00:18:39.805 your U.S. 344 00:18:39.949 --> 00:18:40.949 internet companies. 345 00:18:42.668 --> 00:18:48.771 and We're not going to look at the specific ETFs that I'm looking at, but 346 00:18:48.771 --> 00:18:50.771 it's international ETFs. 347 00:18:50.771 --> 00:18:56.259 When you take these two ETFs and you put them price-wise relative against each 348 00:18:56.259 --> 00:18:56.655 other, 349 00:18:57.720 --> 00:19:03.986 I think you turned your clock back about a year ago, the discrepancy between these 350 00:19:03.986 --> 00:19:04.233 two, 351 00:19:04.329 --> 00:19:06.767 with naturally the U.S. 352 00:19:06.908 --> 00:19:11.548 Internet companies running like a house on fire, The Chinese companies... 353 00:19:12.025 --> 00:19:13.226 remained under pressure. 354 00:19:13.407 --> 00:19:19.074 And we just felt, I think about a year ago, that there's definitely an 355 00:19:19.074 --> 00:19:19.154 opportunity, 356 00:19:19.331 --> 00:19:21.218 opportunity for a bit of a recovery. 357 00:19:21.453 --> 00:19:26.398 We've seen the Chinese data that's been released over the past few weeks. 358 00:19:26.718 --> 00:19:30.218 That's maybe one thing we can mention about the past two weeks. 359 00:19:31.609 --> 00:19:34.453 The Chinese data that's been coming out is looking good. 360 00:19:35.046 --> 00:19:40.937 And naturally, this has been really, really great for companies like Tencent, 361 00:19:40.937 --> 00:19:42.937 companies like Alibaba. 362 00:19:42.937 --> 00:19:45.212 I mean, JD.com, I mean, these companies have done well. 363 00:19:45.474 --> 00:19:52.462 But even if you sit with these recent great recovery on some of these Chinese 364 00:19:52.462 --> 00:19:54.462 internet companies, 365 00:19:54.462 --> 00:19:57.142 if you take that same graph, put them against other over the past three years, 366 00:19:57.188 --> 00:20:01.782 you can still see the Chinese internet companies are still somewhat off. 367 00:20:02.392 --> 00:20:08.470 They've made up some of the, let's call it the lag, but it's not made up all the 368 00:20:08.470 --> 00:20:08.561 losses yet. 369 00:20:09.142 --> 00:20:09.923 So what do you say then? 370 00:20:09.938 --> 00:20:13.760 you say to yourself Okay, they've only just started, so let's get in. 371 00:20:14.500 --> 00:20:17.084 I've just conducted an interview with Michael Power. 372 00:20:17.085 --> 00:20:21.924 I don't know if you remember Michael Power when he was at 91 as an investment 373 00:20:21.924 --> 00:20:23.924 strategist. 374 00:20:23.924 --> 00:20:25.924 Yeah, I remember. 375 00:20:25.924 --> 00:20:29.651 He's written this incredible article on AI for Daily Maverick, and we just spoke 376 00:20:29.651 --> 00:20:31.651 about that. 377 00:20:31.651 --> 00:20:35.104 And he goes into all sorts of technical reasons why China is catching up and why 378 00:20:35.104 --> 00:20:37.104 America's got to watch out. 379 00:20:37.104 --> 00:20:39.385 So maybe it's gone up 50% in one month. 380 00:20:40.141 --> 00:20:42.986 a company like Alibaba, after great numbers. 381 00:20:43.527 --> 00:20:47.375 But maybe, you know, we're underestimating it and it can go further. 382 00:20:47.996 --> 00:20:51.504 Anyway, talking about data, as I said in my introduction, 383 00:20:51.660 --> 00:20:56.207 US private sector jobs have fallen by the most in two and a half years. 384 00:20:56.566 --> 00:20:57.266 Mr. 385 00:20:57.266 --> 00:20:58.847 Trump will hate that. 386 00:21:00.401 --> 00:21:01.101 Yeah, yeah. 387 00:21:01.322 --> 00:21:05.986 The jolts yesterday looked pretty stable. 388 00:21:06.025 --> 00:21:06.908 Job openings, yeah. 389 00:21:07.506 --> 00:21:11.654 Yeah, the job openings yesterday came out more or less expected. 390 00:21:12.014 --> 00:21:16.264 And I think that was sort of a sigh of relief because that was the first hurdle 391 00:21:16.264 --> 00:21:16.401 done. 392 00:21:17.498 --> 00:21:22.998 But yeah, you mentioned today's data, not that good. 393 00:21:24.139 --> 00:21:27.608 I mean, then we need to go and see later this week. 394 00:21:28.572 --> 00:21:32.035 It's going to be some serious job numbers going to come out later this week. 395 00:21:32.056 --> 00:21:35.660 And I think that's going to be a big question mark. 396 00:21:35.661 --> 00:21:37.097 I think it's Friday, if I'm not mistaken. 397 00:21:37.098 --> 00:21:38.340 Yes, it is. 398 00:21:38.341 --> 00:21:39.041 Friday, October 3rd. 399 00:21:39.160 --> 00:21:40.004 Yeah, precisely. 400 00:21:40.566 --> 00:21:41.965 First Friday of the month. 401 00:21:41.966 --> 00:21:43.386 Let's have a look at some prices. 402 00:21:44.027 --> 00:21:45.152 Where are these things? 403 00:21:45.261 --> 00:21:47.324 I've been looking at so many different things. 404 00:21:47.605 --> 00:21:49.527 You've led me astray again, Scott. 405 00:21:49.636 --> 00:21:50.336 Okay, here we go. 406 00:21:50.336 --> 00:21:53.699 I've got the dollar round at 17.20. 407 00:21:53.824 --> 00:21:56.215 The British pound against the round 23.80. 408 00:21:56.216 --> 00:21:56.918 The euro round. 409 00:21:58.793 --> 00:22:00.174 2018, 410 00:22:00.194 --> 00:22:07.100 EUR$117.31 gold price 38.62 on my screen is that 411 00:22:07.139 --> 00:22:11.686 correct Skulk 38.62? 412 00:22:11.687 --> 00:22:14.413 Let me quickly see, I've actually got it open here just hold for a sec. 413 00:22:14.585 --> 00:22:15.285 Thank you very much. 414 00:22:16.038 --> 00:22:19.366 Yeah that's pretty much what it's trading at now yeah. 415 00:22:19.568 --> 00:22:26.249 Okay, so it's off its highs, but it's still bubbling under, very close to that 416 00:22:26.249 --> 00:22:28.249 3,900 mark, and the Goldman Sachs 4,000 mark. 417 00:22:28.249 --> 00:22:29.429 Platinum, 1,587, which is up a percent or so. 418 00:22:29.531 --> 00:22:33.695 Palladium, down nearly a percent at $1,276 per ounce. 419 00:22:34.054 --> 00:22:34.890 What else have we got? 420 00:22:35.249 --> 00:22:36.077 The oil price. 421 00:22:36.937 --> 00:22:39.952 While I'm looking for oil, how's Cecil been doing for you? 422 00:22:42.015 --> 00:22:45.093 Cecil, I don't have a big position. 423 00:22:45.109 --> 00:22:47.796 I remember that it was one of my trades. 424 00:22:51.339 --> 00:22:52.119 That's the one I'm talking about. 425 00:22:52.120 --> 00:22:52.820 That's the one. 426 00:22:52.822 --> 00:22:54.244 So it's definitely retraced. 427 00:22:54.501 --> 00:22:56.587 I mean, it's not trading at the, 428 00:22:56.986 --> 00:23:01.790 let's call it the 120 odd levels where it was trading a few weeks ago. 429 00:23:01.853 --> 00:23:03.290 It's now trading at 107 rand. 430 00:23:03.291 --> 00:23:06.509 But it's still definitely in recovery mode. 431 00:23:06.572 --> 00:23:13.447 Remember, we've mentioned the likes of what the Platinums and Palladiums and 432 00:23:13.447 --> 00:23:15.447 Golds has done. 433 00:23:15.447 --> 00:23:15.947 Remember the Brent World Prize at that time. 434 00:23:16.312 --> 00:23:18.373 that has declined by 2% in September. 435 00:23:18.813 --> 00:23:25.213 And the RAND against the dollar, for instance, that was stronger, more than 2%. 436 00:23:26.018 --> 00:23:29.674 So if you take that, that's pretty much a 4% 437 00:23:29.932 --> 00:23:33.776 drop in RAND terms for the world price, 438 00:23:34.135 --> 00:23:37.260 which naturally won't be good for the likes of Sasol. 439 00:23:38.057 --> 00:23:45.026 But still, I mean, under 7 RAND levels, still trading way, way above the levels he 440 00:23:45.026 --> 00:23:47.026 was trading at in April, May this year. 441 00:23:47.026 --> 00:23:49.026 Yes, indeed. 442 00:23:49.026 --> 00:23:50.664 On the old story, we've got West Texas crude 62 on the nose, which is down 443 00:23:51.164 --> 00:23:55.868 0.6%. Brent crude oil $65.57, which is down 0.7%. 444 00:23:56.672 --> 00:24:00.399 The copper price is in New York $4.80, 445 00:24:00.414 --> 00:24:03.914 4.8067 to be precise, 446 00:24:03.946 --> 00:24:07.618 which is down just under half a percent on the day. 447 00:24:07.696 --> 00:24:09.446 But I still think it looks really good. 448 00:24:09.477 --> 00:24:14.727 somebody asked me scalp what my best performing my prediction for the best 449 00:24:14.727 --> 00:24:16.727 performing 450 00:24:16.727 --> 00:24:20.911 Stock market in the world in 2026 would be, incidentally, 451 00:24:20.912 --> 00:24:23.810 it was Egypt last year. 452 00:24:25.091 --> 00:24:26.474 So I don't know. 453 00:24:26.475 --> 00:24:27.653 I don't know anything about these things. 454 00:24:27.677 --> 00:24:30.380 I just said Chile because of the copper factor. 455 00:24:30.381 --> 00:24:31.700 It's not a bad call, is it? 456 00:24:31.701 --> 00:24:33.778 I mean, copper, I think, is poised for greatness. 457 00:24:33.997 --> 00:24:36.919 I don't think it's going to be a gold, but I do think it's going to go higher. 458 00:24:38.153 --> 00:24:43.216 Well, we chatted about the AI and you mentioned it earlier. 459 00:24:43.656 --> 00:24:47.639 I mean, you can't be of the opinion that AI, I mean, 460 00:24:48.037 --> 00:24:50.779 we already know now that AI is going to take over the world. 461 00:24:50.780 --> 00:24:51.480 Of course it is. 462 00:24:51.480 --> 00:24:56.920 I mean, some of these tech companies are telling us, the likes of the NVIDIA's 463 00:24:56.920 --> 00:24:58.920 empowerment movement, 464 00:24:58.920 --> 00:25:00.795 they're telling us that it's going to take over the world. 465 00:25:00.796 --> 00:25:06.717 But if you're going to be of that opinion, then you need to say, well, you need to 466 00:25:06.717 --> 00:25:08.717 back copper. 467 00:25:08.717 --> 00:25:10.717 But what do you have? 468 00:25:10.717 --> 00:25:11.967 What do you have for best performing country this year, market? 469 00:25:12.576 --> 00:25:13.276 Chile. 470 00:25:13.276 --> 00:25:17.269 because Chile is known for producing copper. 471 00:25:18.211 --> 00:25:18.911 Chile? 472 00:25:18.911 --> 00:25:19.309 Okay. 473 00:25:19.309 --> 00:25:21.570 I've actually got it open now just to get an idea. 474 00:25:21.953 --> 00:25:22.653 Here we go. 475 00:25:24.594 --> 00:25:26.094 You knew I was going to do that. 476 00:25:26.461 --> 00:25:32.289 So as we stand here with all the listed country ETFs, 477 00:25:34.039 --> 00:25:36.273 Chile is finding itself in 14th position. 478 00:25:41.610 --> 00:25:45.852 This is for 2026, though, but I'm interested to know what's gone on this 479 00:25:45.852 --> 00:25:46.296 year. 480 00:25:46.296 --> 00:25:50.063 Yeah, it's done close to, let's call it, 35% in dollar terms this year. 481 00:25:50.962 --> 00:25:54.118 I mean, and for the listeners out there, let's high-five each other. 482 00:25:54.180 --> 00:25:56.602 So Africa is currently in seventh position, in the top ten. 483 00:25:57.087 --> 00:25:59.493 Currently, year-to-date, that's the MSCI. 484 00:25:59.524 --> 00:26:05.399 So people should know, it's not the JSE. This is the ETF, basically the MSCI. 485 00:26:06.337 --> 00:26:10.011 South Africa ETF is done in dollar terms big drum roll. 486 00:26:10.590 --> 00:26:13.733 Year-to-date, up to yesterday's close, 55%. 487 00:26:14.596 --> 00:26:15.296 Wow. 488 00:26:15.334 --> 00:26:16.034 Wow, wow, wow. 489 00:26:16.737 --> 00:26:17.437 Amazing. 490 00:26:17.437 --> 00:26:20.362 It's creating wealth, Skulk, which is such, I mean, it's great. 491 00:26:20.463 --> 00:26:22.002 It's good for the clients. 492 00:26:22.041 --> 00:26:23.283 It's good for the pension funds. 493 00:26:23.604 --> 00:26:24.401 It's good for everything. 494 00:26:25.205 --> 00:26:25.905 Okay. 495 00:26:25.987 --> 00:26:30.104 Good for the JSC today was Telcom, which was up 7.4%. 496 00:26:30.463 --> 00:26:33.307 Is that MTN rumor still going around, Skulk? 497 00:26:34.213 --> 00:26:36.135 Yeah, it's still very much, very much. 498 00:26:36.682 --> 00:26:38.182 Those rumors are very much intact, yeah. 499 00:26:38.566 --> 00:26:39.266 Correct. 500 00:26:39.266 --> 00:26:44.346 Speaking of MTN, that price, 6.8% higher, 501 00:26:44.347 --> 00:26:48.831 147 random 38 cents. 502 00:26:48.846 --> 00:26:49.651 What's GRP? 503 00:26:49.652 --> 00:26:51.346 That's, what is GRP? 504 00:26:51.690 --> 00:26:54.807 Growth point, excuse me, 6.8% higher as well. 505 00:26:55.604 --> 00:26:58.229 Net care up 6.5% and Anglo Gold is shanty. 506 00:26:59.510 --> 00:27:02.245 Anglo Gold up 4.75%. 507 00:27:02.246 --> 00:27:04.557 Sorry, Skalk, you wanted to say something? 508 00:27:04.604 --> 00:27:07.651 No, no, no, I couldn't hear the question. 509 00:27:08.058 --> 00:27:10.041 GRT, so yeah, you answered it. 510 00:27:10.042 --> 00:27:11.021 P, yeah, growth point. 511 00:27:11.601 --> 00:27:14.884 On the downside, Old Mutual down 5.4%. 512 00:27:14.885 --> 00:27:16.525 Is that an ex-div story, Skulk? 513 00:27:17.447 --> 00:27:18.525 Old Mutual, yes, correct. 514 00:27:18.572 --> 00:27:20.751 It's been a dividend. 515 00:27:21.212 --> 00:27:22.892 XRO down 5%. 516 00:27:23.392 --> 00:27:25.900 African Rainbow Minerals down 3.1%. 517 00:27:25.901 --> 00:27:28.775 And Premier down 2.75%. 518 00:27:28.776 --> 00:27:30.759 Any other ones outside of those, please? 519 00:27:31.337 --> 00:27:34.509 No, so with the exclusion of Premier? 520 00:27:34.958 --> 00:27:36.079 All of them are ex-divs. 521 00:27:36.080 --> 00:27:40.025 So African Remembrance Minerals, 6,600 dividend, and Exaro, 8,043 dividend. 522 00:27:40.704 --> 00:27:41.724 Thank you very much indeed. 523 00:27:41.825 --> 00:27:43.404 Closing JSC indices, please. 524 00:27:44.466 --> 00:27:47.490 So the JSC today, let's quickly have a look. 525 00:27:48.052 --> 00:27:53.450 They've done pretty solid for the first day of the first, well, let's call it the 526 00:27:53.450 --> 00:27:55.450 final quarter. 527 00:27:55.450 --> 00:27:57.138 It's come to, oh, wow, I can't believe this. 528 00:27:57.185 --> 00:27:58.638 I mean, this is crazy. 529 00:27:58.639 --> 00:28:03.107 I mean, over 100,000, I thought, man, this is crazy. 530 00:28:03.232 --> 00:28:10.140 then you know two weeks ago we said it's now gone over 105 000 points today it 531 00:28:10.140 --> 00:28:10.258 closed 532 00:28:10.258 --> 00:28:16.859 108 650 points up 0.66 resources not stopping 533 00:28:17.539 --> 00:28:21.820 not stopping after what it's done in september again up one 534 00:28:21.835 --> 00:28:27.945 percent for today the industrial index also looking good 0.61 while the financial 535 00:28:27.945 --> 00:28:29.945 index was up 536 00:28:29.945 --> 00:28:33.523 0.71 let's look at the value that traders through the market. 537 00:28:34.178 --> 00:28:35.079 Yeah, not bad. 538 00:28:35.179 --> 00:28:37.742 Very close to a 30 billion day. 539 00:28:38.144 --> 00:28:41.824 29.4 billion traded through the Jays here today. 540 00:28:42.027 --> 00:28:42.949 That's excellent news. 541 00:28:43.449 --> 00:28:44.972 Skulk, thank you very much for your time. 542 00:28:45.105 --> 00:28:49.456 An extended version, but we had so much to talk about, so we can excuse ourselves. 543 00:28:49.472 --> 00:28:52.417 An extended version of the 5 o'clock shadow. 544 00:28:52.495 --> 00:28:56.386 Skulk is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. 545 00:28:56.777 --> 00:28:58.417 And as I said, that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 546 00:28:58.480 --> 00:29:00.902 Skulk will be back with us same time next week. 547 00:29:01.602 --> 00:29:08.544 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 548 00:29:08.544 --> 00:29:10.544 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 549 00:29:10.544 --> 00:29:12.287 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 550 00:29:12.623 --> 00:29:17.263 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 551 00:29:17.732 --> 00:29:24.685 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 552 00:29:24.685 --> 00:29:26.685 entity other than the speaker or the author. 553 00:29:26.685 --> 00:29:31.154 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 554 00:29:31.154 --> 00:29:33.154 change, revision, and revision. 555 00:29:33.154 --> 00:29:35.154 and rethinking at any time. 556 00:29:35.154 --> 00:29:35.716 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.