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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Clough, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

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Now, in a few hours time, Skulk, way
beyond the scope of this podcast, unless

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you're feeling really chatty,

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the US Federal Reserve will announce its
decision.

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on interest rates in the United States.

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Now this is of course important because
it's anticipated so much by the market and

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also in the macro sense it

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is the price of money in the world's
largest economy.

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Now here's my scenarios.

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They cut rates by 25 basis points because
they're quite conservative.

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Everyone's expecting that and I'm a
bullish person so I say cut this very

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fantastic.

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This means that there's probably going to
be two more, given what Mr Powell said,

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because he makes his comments, you know,

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actually before the decision.

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No, it's not.

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It's after.

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I can't remember.

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No, he's before.

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He's made his comments anyway, whenever it
is.

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And they're fairly dovish.

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So we're expecting more cuts.

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So this is great for growth stocks.

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We'll just carry on buying, never mind
Nvidia being banned from selling its chips

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in China and all that sort of thing,

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and never mind stagflation.

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And never mind tariffs, we're going to
sweep that all under the carpet.

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It's cheap money we're looking for, so buy
the market.

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He cuts by 50 basis points instead of 25.

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And the bulls say, fantastic, it's even
cheaper money.

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Trump is having his effect on the US
Federal Reserve.

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There's political influence here.

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This will continue.

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Great, we'll buy the market even more.

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And the market goes to all-time record
highs.

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Tonight and...

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In the ensuing days.

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That's the bullish argument.

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Bearish argument, they raise, sorry, cut
rates by 25 basis points.

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They say, oh, it's all in the market.

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Let's sell.

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This is all anticipated.

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Let's sell this thing because it is a
little bit overpriced.

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They cut by 50 basis points.

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The bears say, goodness me, they must know
something that we don't.

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This stagflation thing is obviously taking
a hold.

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The job market must be worse than
expected.

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And yeah, inflation is going to pick up,
but there's a political influence of 50

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basis points.

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I'm scared I'm going to sell.

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So you can convince yourself anyway is
what I'm trying to say in a long winded

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way.

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Yeah.

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You convince yourself with any argument
will work, in other words.

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Good evening, Lindsay.

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Hello, Skelk.

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I forgot you were there for a moment.

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To all the listeners, that was quite the
intro.

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Basically, I think you've explained pretty
much the conundrum we're sitting with.

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Because on the one side, we're going to
hear good news tonight,

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regardless of what the outcome.

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I mean, a quarter of a basis point, 50
basis points.

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Currently, if we look at the CME tool and
we listen to what Paul said over recent

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weeks, we're going to see the cut.

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We're going to see the cut in the next few
hours.

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And yeah, that's going to be the step one.

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You're right.

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I absolutely back your second scenario by
saying that if we see 50 basis points, and

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we've had this conversation,

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I think, two, three weeks ago where nobody
put any probability of a 50 basis points

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cut.

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We had this scenario where we said, you
know, don't be surprised.

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I mean, people are saying, well,

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the market are trading at ridiculous
levels and sooner or later,

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the music is going to stop.

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And that's going to be a problem.

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And I said, well, I agree, but if we see a
half a basis points,

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we might see that push higher before we
see the drop lower.

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And I agree with you.

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I absolutely agree with you.

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I think 50 basis points would most
probably be seen as good news is bad news.

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Because why would they I mean, they've
waited this long.

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And to Trump's point, let's say Trump for
a second is right, because he said, you

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know,

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Powell was way too late to start raising
your rates,

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and he's now way too late cutting it
again.

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You're not going to make up for time by
cutting half a percent.

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If he goes into this gradually now, I
think at least inflation will be under

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control.

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Trump is saying that the economy most
probably won't be, but at least inflation

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will be under control,

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according to Powell.

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But I must say, if he cuts half a percent,
I think that's going to be desperation.

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And to your point?

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That is political interference to the
highest, highest degree.

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Yes, the other thing that hasn't really
been explored in either of our

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explanations is

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the state of the market at the moment.

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If the market was middling along at
reasonable valuations, so what?

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If it was really low, you'd say, goodness
me, a cut is going to boost this market

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from a low base.

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When it's so elevated, there's your
problem if you're a bull.

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That is your problem.

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Do you buy NVIDIA at 170?

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Do you buy, I don't know, what are the
other ones that are doing well in the

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United States?

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Oh, Tesla's gone berserk recently.

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What is it, 420 now, Tesla?

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Something like that, Scott?

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Yeah, yeah, it has gone berserk.

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As we sit here, it's...

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You're talking about the market cap?

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What are you talking about?

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No, the actual price in US dollars.

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It's trading at 170 US dollars.

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What am I talking about then?

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Tesla.

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Tesla, yeah, yeah.

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Tesla has just shot 415 US dollars down
today.

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Yeah.

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But I mean...

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It was 422, I think, yesterday.

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And at the low after Liberation Day, I
think it was...

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And also with what's-his-name being kicked
out of the White House,

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it was something like 225, 220 to 225.

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So that's a $200 a share rally.

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Mr.

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Musk has been buying the stock, and on one
day, I think, he bought a billion dollars

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worth.

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It was announced that he'd bought a
billion dollars worth.

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So that got the bulls going as well.

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Goodness knows why, because, you know,
just because he's buying doesn't mean to

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say that they're going to sell more of
their overpriced cars.

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First time that he's buying, I mean, yeah.

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And I think he had a tweet saying, as they
forecast it, or after his...

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boards.

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I mean, that was just a crazy one.

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I mean, he's had his run-ins with the SEC

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where they slapped him and said, well, you
are mighty close to doing things like

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front running.

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I just think he's tickling the lines

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behind again here by doing these things.

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But yeah, $1 billion.

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A year worth of Tesla shares.

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Yeah, no, it's a crazy market.

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Lindsay, I think it most probably will get
crazier because

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I think tonight the prudent thing will be
for Paul just to come in and cut a quarter

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of a percent.

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He didn't succumb to any pressures
earlier,

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let's call it in President Trump's
presidency up to now.

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And I wouldn't succumb now.

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I'd just continue, stay the course, and
that's it.

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And I think that would most probably be
the best outcome for markets over the next

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day or two.

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If it just comes through tonight, announce
the quarter of a percentage,

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announce that we would most probably see
another quarter of a percentage.

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He will never say another quarter of a
percentage, but he will most probably

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indicate the likelihood of a further cut.

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at the next meeting will be higher, then I
think markets will take it as positive.

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Yes, yes, they will.

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Is there money waiting in the wings?

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There probably is.

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They'll find it somewhere.

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But anyway, it's going to be a fascinating
time.

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And so I shall be glued to my television
set briefly around about 8.15

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this evening, South African time.

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Let's have a look at South Africa now,
because we spoke about Woolworths, didn't

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we, a while back?

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Yeah.

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And today the share price up 4%.

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Why it's up 4% I don't know.

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Maybe because of the retail sales number
that came out from South Africa of a 5.6%

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gain.

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Is that the reason why?

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Yeah, I don't know.

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I think there was some podcast a few weeks
ago of a very,

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very highly regarded radio show, Strictly
Business.

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Oh, you think it's… They interviewed a
highly regarded fund manager,

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Mr.

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Bickard, and I think that sort of got the
ball rolling.

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And today… Today we had another
announcement.

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The announcement came through today that I
think it was Coronation.

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Coronation announced that they are also
buying Woolworths.

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Look at that.

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Interesting stuff.

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Yeah, here we go.

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We received formal notification that
Coronation Asset Management, on behalf of

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its clients,

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has acquired in aggregate an interest in
the ordinary shares of the company, blah,

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blah, blah, to the amount of FAP.

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percent of the total issued there we go
yes notification in terms of section 122

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in brackets three of the companies act

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there we go see you got the ball rolling
you got the ball rolling well you know we

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do what we can here at

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strictly business podcast in in the five
o'clock shadow uh more

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seriously let's have a look at another one
as well momentum uh annual results for the

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year ended

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30th of june share price bucking the trend
going down in other words down 0.7 percent

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momentum.

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Do you look at this company?

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Yeah, I do look at the company.

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Lindsay, it's sort of a sweet and sour
announcement.

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So let's just get the most important
thing.

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Did I think the results look bad in any
shape or form?

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No, it actually looked pretty good.

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Listeners will ask them, why did we see a
retracement in the price?

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Well, they already guided.

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gave a trading statement a week or two
ago.

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So we're pretty sure what to expect out of
the results.

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So for those who didn't see the results,
the normalized headline earnings,

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that was up 41%.

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So that was really good.

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Headline earnings were up 50%.

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Basic EPS up 57%.

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One that stood out for me, more important,
because

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We know that they bought back about 2
billion rands worth of shares.

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Now, that's a crazy amount.

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I mean, again,

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this is where the sweet and sour comes
through because when a company announced

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that they've bought back,

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especially bought back 2 billion rands
worth of shares, I say, well, that's a

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right mark and a wrong mark.

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Right mark in the sense that, yes, they've
got the confidence of the company.

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And if they've got the confidence of the
company to buy their own shares, then as

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shareholders, and I'm not a shareholder,

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as shareholders, you should feel more
comfortable still holding your share or

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even buying more.

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My question is usually, isn't there
anything else to be buying?

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I mean, we're sitting a year later.

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Clearly not.

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No.

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The South African market, given,
predominantly driven by the likes of

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commodity stocks and...

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and also NASPAS process.

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But the South African market has been
under pressure for many years,

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trading at low valuations.

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And that just means as a company,

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they can't find any other acquisitions and
other opportunities to buy than rather buy

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the company back.

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And I think Sheldon's, they've got a lot
of, there's quite a few companies out

244
00:12:40.438 --> 00:12:42.438
there that's doing acquisitions, taking
their money,

245
00:12:42.438 --> 00:12:44.438
taking their cash.

246
00:12:44.438 --> 00:12:46.438
looking for other opportunities.

247
00:12:46.438 --> 00:12:47.698
And I think therein might be a reason why
we see a bit of a retracement.

248
00:12:47.699 --> 00:12:53.139
The shareholders just felt, no, it was
good, but what's the upside?

249
00:12:54.280 --> 00:12:59.053
Well, the upside is, I suppose, apart from
the share buybacks, which always helps an

250
00:12:59.053 --> 00:13:01.053
existing shareholder,

251
00:13:01.053 --> 00:13:02.163
the company is doing okay.

252
00:13:02.164 --> 00:13:02.864
I mean, look at this.

253
00:13:02.864 --> 00:13:06.803
It says, in a tough market, it says here,
this is the introduction.

254
00:13:07.288 --> 00:13:08.663
Someone got a bit enthusiastic.

255
00:13:09.264 --> 00:13:13.329
with their words, a momentum group
delivered a remarkable set of results.

256
00:13:13.747 --> 00:13:18.712
Not a good set of results, not an
excellent set of results, not a good set

257
00:13:18.712 --> 00:13:20.712
of results given the circumstances,

258
00:13:20.712 --> 00:13:22.774
but a remarkable set of results they
delivered.

259
00:13:22.876 --> 00:13:24.399
That's going a bit far, isn't it?

260
00:13:25.512 --> 00:13:27.213
Yeah, you buy your own shares back then.

261
00:13:28.895 --> 00:13:33.178
Well, the actual EPS, headline EPS, and
those things should look remarkable.

262
00:13:33.983 --> 00:13:34.683
It was good.

263
00:13:34.725 --> 00:13:40.803
I mean, to me, the most important thing
was the embedded value per share.

264
00:13:40.804 --> 00:13:45.131
42 and 51, that's up 15%.

265
00:13:45.147 --> 00:13:51.866
That's the most important thing when I
look at a life insurer is the embedded

266
00:13:51.866 --> 00:13:53.866
value of the

267
00:13:53.866 --> 00:13:55.866
company.

268
00:13:55.866 --> 00:13:57.866
And if the embedded value...

269
00:13:57.866 --> 00:13:59.866
of the company, less remarkable.

270
00:13:59.866 --> 00:14:01.866
15% is still good.

271
00:14:01.866 --> 00:14:03.866
Maybe just less remarkable.

272
00:14:03.866 --> 00:14:04.815
My point is I want to see and I want to
hear more.

273
00:14:06.862 --> 00:14:12.424
Because they mentioned, they mentioned the
inflationary environment.

274
00:14:12.440 --> 00:14:14.346
They mentioned the economic growth.

275
00:14:14.690 --> 00:14:17.549
They mentioned the jobs uncertainty.

276
00:14:17.550 --> 00:14:22.159
Because when people lose their jobs,
Lindsay, and we've had a few.

277
00:14:22.588 --> 00:14:24.130
companies closing plants.

278
00:14:25.931 --> 00:14:32.519
There's been some job losses in Africa
lately being in the news.

279
00:14:33.199 --> 00:14:39.050
I mean, the first thing that these people
usually do is they switch off their

280
00:14:39.050 --> 00:14:41.050
metropolitan

281
00:14:41.050 --> 00:14:44.207
life insurance or momentum RA because they
need to eat.

282
00:14:44.675 --> 00:14:47.488
I mean, they lost their jobs, which is
really, really unfortunate.

283
00:14:47.489 --> 00:14:49.269
So I think...

284
00:14:50.984 --> 00:14:55.107
It shows me that Metropolitan, they're
looking at that,

285
00:14:55.486 --> 00:15:01.623
and they are maybe a bit on the cautious
side, which is not always a bad thing.

286
00:15:01.990 --> 00:15:02.787
Not always a bad thing.

287
00:15:03.466 --> 00:15:04.209
Okay, that's momentum.

288
00:15:04.210 --> 00:15:04.910
There's another one.

289
00:15:04.910 --> 00:15:11.591
They're going to buy another billion rand,
or they applied to buy a further one

290
00:15:11.591 --> 00:15:13.591
billion rand.

291
00:15:13.591 --> 00:15:15.591
coming financial year.

292
00:15:15.591 --> 00:15:17.592
And yet the share price down 0.7% so
someone sees something that they don't

293
00:15:17.592 --> 00:15:17.835
like.

294
00:15:17.835 --> 00:15:20.432
Now have a look at this one because it
came out at eight o'clock this morning.

295
00:15:20.455 --> 00:15:22.916
It's not something you look at a lot I
wouldn't imagine.

296
00:15:23.354 --> 00:15:24.877
Metrophile Holdings Limited.

297
00:15:25.713 --> 00:15:29.033
Share price caught your eye up 14.25% as I
look at it.

298
00:15:29.471 --> 00:15:36.236
But one of the more interesting reasons or
probably for me the most interesting

299
00:15:36.236 --> 00:15:38.236
reason is it's a joint firm intention
announcement

300
00:15:38.236 --> 00:15:39.205
from the company in respect of an offer to
acquire...

301
00:15:39.440 --> 00:15:44.645
All of the issued ordinary shares in Metro
file, another delisting from the JSC.

302
00:15:44.824 --> 00:15:46.727
In other words, should it go through,
Skulk?

303
00:15:47.551 --> 00:15:50.207
Yeah, yes, it is crazy.

304
00:15:50.434 --> 00:15:52.996
I mean, that's my point.

305
00:15:53.090 --> 00:15:55.543
I mean, what I made earlier, you know,

306
00:15:55.544 --> 00:16:00.856
besides if you strip out the likes of the
commodity stocks,

307
00:16:01.356 --> 00:16:07.965
gold stock specifically, and you strip out
the likes of Process, NASPAS, then...

308
00:16:08.252 --> 00:16:12.814
And the JSE, I mean, these companies are
still trading at great valuations.

309
00:16:12.838 --> 00:16:18.986
I mean, if you look at our banks, and
they've brought a solid set of results.

310
00:16:19.080 --> 00:16:25.189
Yet, if you compare their performances in
2025 to the JSE,

311
00:16:25.596 --> 00:16:28.158
you can see they are seriously, seriously
lagging.

312
00:16:28.768 --> 00:16:30.580
Quite a bit of retracement, some of these
banks.

313
00:16:30.830 --> 00:16:36.752
It just shows you that there's companies
that's not really catching the eye of...

314
00:16:37.328 --> 00:16:38.490
international investors.

315
00:16:38.870 --> 00:16:44.795
And that just puts some of these companies
in a position to say, well, like

316
00:16:44.795 --> 00:16:46.795
Metropolitan, Momentum,

317
00:16:46.795 --> 00:16:48.795
let's buy back some of our own shares.

318
00:16:48.795 --> 00:16:50.017
Like Metrophile saying, well, let's just
buy back our own company.

319
00:16:50.064 --> 00:16:55.392
It's trading at good enough valuations,
and there we go, another company going to

320
00:16:55.392 --> 00:16:57.392
delist it from the JSC.

321
00:16:57.392 --> 00:16:58.314
It's sad to a certain extent.

322
00:16:58.377 --> 00:17:03.330
I mean, we've lost a few great names over
the years, and, yeah,

323
00:17:03.331 --> 00:17:06.377
I hope the interest comes back in the JSC.

324
00:17:07.140 --> 00:17:09.081
We don't lose all our good stocks.

325
00:17:09.761 --> 00:17:16.741
All we need now is a government that
delivers fiscally while the South African

326
00:17:16.741 --> 00:17:18.741
Reserve Bank delivers monetarily and
everything's fine.

327
00:17:18.741 --> 00:17:20.507
The first one, yeah, okay, we won't talk
about politics.

328
00:17:21.280 --> 00:17:24.898
Any other corporate news in South Africa
before we go to the markets, please,

329
00:17:24.898 --> 00:17:24.988
Skalk?

330
00:17:25.757 --> 00:17:31.413
No, I think Premier Foods, that was
another one that brought out results.

331
00:17:32.882 --> 00:17:35.085
Or Trading Studies, more specifically.

332
00:17:35.764 --> 00:17:42.290
They brought a trading statement for the
six-month end of September. For the

333
00:17:42.290 --> 00:17:44.290
listeners out there who don't know Premier
Foods,

334
00:17:44.290 --> 00:17:49.337
they've got the likes of Impala and Blue
Ribbon, Dove Soap and Snowflake, very,

335
00:17:49.415 --> 00:17:50.876
very well-known food brands.

336
00:17:52.345 --> 00:17:58.173
And they mentioned that their headline
earnings per share is set to increase

337
00:17:58.173 --> 00:18:00.173
anything between 20%

338
00:18:00.173 --> 00:18:02.173
and 30%.

339
00:18:02.173 --> 00:18:02.266
Now, that out of the market, we're really,
really excited.

340
00:18:03.126 --> 00:18:05.516
As mentioned, the share price up 6.2%.

341
00:18:06.549 --> 00:18:12.856
I just quickly had a look and just to see
what

342
00:18:13.157 --> 00:18:15.614
Bloomberg, the consensus, Bloomberg,

343
00:18:15.840 --> 00:18:21.403
they've got the EPS or the headline
earnings per share

344
00:18:22.348 --> 00:18:26.410
forecasted for this period at just over 11
rand.

345
00:18:26.888 --> 00:18:27.849
11 Rand per share.

346
00:18:28.129 --> 00:18:34.594
Now, if you take it from the previous
year, that's about a 23% increase in

347
00:18:34.594 --> 00:18:36.594
headline earnings per share.

348
00:18:36.594 --> 00:18:39.082
So this trading statement looks, what was
that word you had earlier?

349
00:18:39.364 --> 00:18:40.262
Marvelous or?

350
00:18:41.004 --> 00:18:41.704
Remarkable.

351
00:18:42.200 --> 00:18:42.900
Remarkable.

352
00:18:44.129 --> 00:18:49.754
The trading statement did look remarkable,
stating 20 to 30% growth in headline

353
00:18:49.754 --> 00:18:51.754
earnings per share.

354
00:18:51.754 --> 00:18:55.442
But that's pretty much what Bloomberg's
currently got as consensus.

355
00:18:55.844 --> 00:18:56.544
Is that bad?

356
00:18:56.544 --> 00:18:57.285
No, that's not bad.

357
00:18:57.466 --> 00:19:01.088
What stood out for me in the trading
statement, really interesting,

358
00:19:01.131 --> 00:19:06.135
was where they mentioned the deflationary
environment for the softer commodities.

359
00:19:06.416 --> 00:19:09.900
Now, for a company, producing bread,

360
00:19:11.260 --> 00:19:17.525
naturally a deflationary environment for
softer commodities like, for instance,

361
00:19:17.525 --> 00:19:19.525
wheat, will be positive.

362
00:19:19.525 --> 00:19:24.244
I mean, if you see wheat prices, which it
did, drop by 7% over the past 12 months,

363
00:19:24.245 --> 00:19:25.072
if you look at sugar.

364
00:19:25.280 --> 00:19:29.443
which a lot of premier groups products
use.

365
00:19:29.743 --> 00:19:35.548
If you look at the sugar price over the
past 12 months, that's dropped over 25%.

366
00:19:37.275 --> 00:19:38.095
And we can continue.

367
00:19:38.134 --> 00:19:42.751
There's quite a few of these other soft
commodities, which they mentioned.

368
00:19:43.158 --> 00:19:47.845
The soft commodity deflationary
environment definitely helped the company.

369
00:19:48.079 --> 00:19:49.158
Not cocoa, though.

370
00:19:49.159 --> 00:19:49.859
Not cocoa.

371
00:19:49.859 --> 00:19:52.314
That's been going up, but they probably
don't use cocoa products.

372
00:19:53.584 --> 00:19:57.325
Just for interest sake, cacao over the
past 12 months is down 5%.

373
00:19:59.387 --> 00:20:02.465
Yeah, coffee, coffee on the other hand,
that's up 53%.

374
00:20:03.504 --> 00:20:06.543
But cacao, cacao is down over the past 12
months.

375
00:20:06.544 --> 00:20:09.051
I saw a recent rally in it.

376
00:20:09.543 --> 00:20:13.731
So the 5% must be over, obviously over a
longer period.

377
00:20:13.746 --> 00:20:15.871
But the recent move has been to the
upside.

378
00:20:15.887 --> 00:20:19.715
Coffee prices, well, goodness me, even I
started drinking coffee.

379
00:20:19.716 --> 00:20:22.028
I'm a very good, when I stopped drinking.

380
00:20:22.812 --> 00:20:25.575
The shares of Diageo went plunging, I
think it was.

381
00:20:25.655 --> 00:20:27.315
But let's not talk about that.

382
00:20:27.335 --> 00:20:29.218
I want to do another quick informal
survey.

383
00:20:29.219 --> 00:20:29.919
Keep on walking.

384
00:20:30.018 --> 00:20:30.936
Keep on walking.

385
00:20:31.741 --> 00:20:37.343
Given the fact that it's Retail Sales Day
in South Africa, do a quick informal

386
00:20:37.343 --> 00:20:39.343
retail survey now, Skyle.

387
00:20:39.343 --> 00:20:40.983
Are you a shower gel or soap man in the
shower?

388
00:20:42.233 --> 00:20:43.999
I'm actually going to go one step further.

389
00:20:44.233 --> 00:20:46.702
I am a premier group man.

390
00:20:47.014 --> 00:20:48.905
I am a dove soap man.

391
00:20:48.906 --> 00:20:49.606
So am I.

392
00:20:49.606 --> 00:20:50.184
I'm a dove.

393
00:20:50.184 --> 00:20:52.244
It's the right shape for your body, isn't
it?

394
00:20:52.584 --> 00:20:53.625
It's just perfect.

395
00:20:53.686 --> 00:20:55.264
It feels so perfect in your hand.

396
00:20:55.424 --> 00:20:56.424
Yeah.

397
00:20:56.425 --> 00:20:57.125
I love the quality.

398
00:20:57.125 --> 00:20:57.707
I'm with you.

399
00:20:57.707 --> 00:21:00.889
And I'll even take it one step further,

400
00:21:02.107 --> 00:21:05.209
that sheer body butter flavoured one.

401
00:21:05.326 --> 00:21:06.026
Oh, man.

402
00:21:06.026 --> 00:21:06.865
I haven't seen that.

403
00:21:06.881 --> 00:21:08.584
I just used the traditional white one.

404
00:21:09.303 --> 00:21:15.037
Yeah, that's my default if I don't find
the sheer body butter one, but go pamper

405
00:21:15.037 --> 00:21:17.037
yourself.

406
00:21:17.037 --> 00:21:19.037
I've got to write this one down.

407
00:21:19.037 --> 00:21:21.037
I think I should check the dove range.

408
00:21:21.037 --> 00:21:22.378
It just shows you, you get set in your
ways.

409
00:21:22.879 --> 00:21:24.682
Okay, that's the retail survey over.

410
00:21:25.041 --> 00:21:26.643
Let's go to, should we go to the markets?

411
00:21:26.644 --> 00:21:28.705
Let's go to the markets because the round
is lovely.

412
00:21:28.706 --> 00:21:35.150
I love the round at 1736 against the US
dollar with the dollar on the, we'll see

413
00:21:35.150 --> 00:21:37.150
in a minute, euro dollar,

414
00:21:37.150 --> 00:21:39.150
for example.

415
00:21:39.150 --> 00:21:40.338
But the dollar is on a slippery slope and
you love that dollar index.

416
00:21:40.416 --> 00:21:42.275
You'll tell us what it is in a moment.

417
00:21:42.322 --> 00:21:49.025
But anyway, the dollar round, 1736, that's
a near 2% gain or loss rather for the

418
00:21:49.025 --> 00:21:49.288
dollar.

419
00:21:49.288 --> 00:21:50.189
against the RAND.

420
00:21:50.249 --> 00:21:56.055
The British pound against the RAND, 23.73,
barely changed, and barely changed against

421
00:21:56.055 --> 00:21:58.055
the euro as well,

422
00:21:58.055 --> 00:21:58.454
which is 20.58.

423
00:21:58.455 --> 00:22:00.055
It's the dollar RAND that's doing it.

424
00:22:00.360 --> 00:22:02.899
Euro dollar, 1.1850.

425
00:22:02.900 --> 00:22:07.313
The euro nearly 2% higher against the
dollar in the last 24 hours.

426
00:22:07.407 --> 00:22:08.485
Remarkable stuff.

427
00:22:08.547 --> 00:22:10.125
Let's use that word remarkable again.

428
00:22:10.469 --> 00:22:15.797
British pound against the US dollar,
1.3665, with the 1.9% higher.

429
00:22:16.469 --> 00:22:20.592
Now then, The gold price went shooting
through 3700 yesterday.

430
00:22:20.932 --> 00:22:22.815
And it thought, wait a second, I don't
like it here.

431
00:22:22.932 --> 00:22:25.139
Even though one of the major U.S.

432
00:22:25.178 --> 00:22:31.600
investment banks has bravely announced
that this gold price target is now 4000.

433
00:22:31.601 --> 00:22:33.085
It's not exactly the bravest thing.

434
00:22:33.100 --> 00:22:39.077
I'd love to be a gold analyst at one of
these banks and just say, excuse me, boss,

435
00:22:39.077 --> 00:22:41.077
let's make it 4000.

436
00:22:41.077 --> 00:22:43.077
And they'll say, certainly, Williams, off
you go.

437
00:22:43.077 --> 00:22:45.077
And good luck with your Christmas bonus.

438
00:22:45.077 --> 00:22:47.077
Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

439
00:22:47.077 --> 00:22:47.722
Platinum price down 19 to 13.83.

440
00:22:47.723 --> 00:22:51.726
Palladium down 11 to 11.89 dollars per
ounce.

441
00:22:51.765 --> 00:22:53.945
Now the all-important other commodities.

442
00:22:54.312 --> 00:23:00.437
Let's have a look at the oil price and of
course the copper price because it's so

443
00:23:00.437 --> 00:23:02.437
important for a couple of South African
interests.

444
00:23:02.437 --> 00:23:05.007
Now crude oil in the United States, West
Texas, is down 0.7%

445
00:23:05.008 --> 00:23:10.320
to $64.09 a barrel and Brent crude oil
down two-thirds of a percent to

446
00:23:10.321 --> 00:23:12.148
$68.04.

447
00:23:12.149 --> 00:23:13.132
for the copper price.

448
00:23:13.660 --> 00:23:20.327
is very similar to what it was the other
day, actually, which was $4.58 per pound.

449
00:23:20.366 --> 00:23:24.307
It's now $4.57 per pound, but in the last
24 hours,

450
00:23:24.713 --> 00:23:27.612
down 1.4%.

451
00:23:27.635 --> 00:23:30.956
Okay, the South African Tenure Bond, this
is a hell of a story this year.

452
00:23:31.331 --> 00:23:36.409
It's now 9.17%, another 6.5 basis points
weaker.

453
00:23:37.346 --> 00:23:39.799
Again, remarkable stuff, and it's all
because of the RAND.

454
00:23:39.800 --> 00:23:40.500
We don't...

455
00:23:40.636 --> 00:23:47.002
We're importing relative deflation
compared to what we would do if it was

456
00:23:47.002 --> 00:23:49.002
1850.

457
00:23:49.002 --> 00:23:49.244
US 10-year, 404, we'll call that one.

458
00:23:49.487 --> 00:23:51.463
So it doesn't like being below 4%.

459
00:23:51.643 --> 00:23:54.112
It has been there a couple of times in the
last few days.

460
00:23:54.651 --> 00:23:56.752
S&P 500 futures ahead of the Fed.

461
00:23:57.627 --> 00:24:00.596
Barely changed at 6,664.

462
00:24:00.597 --> 00:24:02.096
And that's the December futures.

463
00:24:02.097 --> 00:24:04.674
We switch from September to December.

464
00:24:04.705 --> 00:24:05.705
They do it quarterly.

465
00:24:06.268 --> 00:24:08.205
And what else can I say?

466
00:24:08.284 --> 00:24:09.237
The Bitcoin price.

467
00:24:09.920 --> 00:24:15.092
It is bobbing along at 115,657.

468
00:24:15.213 --> 00:24:17.561
Scout, what were the moves on the JSC
today, please?

469
00:24:17.562 --> 00:24:18.924
And I'll give you mine afterwards.

470
00:24:20.280 --> 00:24:24.663
We've mentioned a few companies already
that was moving and shaking,

471
00:24:24.687 --> 00:24:27.608
but let's look at them.

472
00:24:28.210 --> 00:24:31.374
So for a lot of people, there's been some
ex-diffs.

473
00:24:31.390 --> 00:24:34.437
So Life Healthcare did not drop by 0.9%
today.

474
00:24:34.812 --> 00:24:38.585
There was a massive, massive dividend
that's been spent out of that.

475
00:24:38.632 --> 00:24:42.382
So no need to worry about that one.

476
00:24:43.898 --> 00:24:46.085
Cup, that was down 3.87%.

477
00:24:46.351 --> 00:24:48.882
Udeko down 3.2%.

478
00:24:50.454 --> 00:24:53.198
Yeah, so small companies, no big ones.

479
00:24:53.237 --> 00:24:58.479
I think the biggest mover on the downside
was Richemont.

480
00:24:58.480 --> 00:25:01.964
But again, that is a dividend story.

481
00:25:02.042 --> 00:25:04.909
So ex-dividend story, 2.6% down.

482
00:25:05.503 --> 00:25:11.690
Then if we look at the upside, Oceana,
they had a bad dish day yesterday,

483
00:25:11.768 --> 00:25:14.456
but also brought out some results.

484
00:25:14.518 --> 00:25:19.825
It looked like they struggled, but the
market clearly expected them to do way

485
00:25:19.825 --> 00:25:19.865
worse.

486
00:25:20.286 --> 00:25:24.392
But the share price today, after the
announcement, 6.7% up.

487
00:25:24.489 --> 00:25:26.993
Devon Riddipoer, deep, 4.2% up.

488
00:25:27.978 --> 00:25:29.532
Carew, 3.4%.

489
00:25:29.533 --> 00:25:33.259
The one that we mentioned, Woolies, 3.3%
up.

490
00:25:33.579 --> 00:25:37.618
And Supergroup was up 2.7%.

491
00:25:37.650 --> 00:25:40.493
I think we just need to just go number 6
as well.

492
00:25:41.259 --> 00:25:44.868
Because as mentioned earlier, when
process...

493
00:25:45.228 --> 00:25:49.953
is up 2.5%, 2.6%, and NASPA is up 2.5%.

494
00:25:50.453 --> 00:25:54.375
You know, that's the perfect environment
for the JSE.

495
00:25:54.976 --> 00:25:55.676
Indeed.

496
00:25:55.676 --> 00:25:57.218
So, yeah, that was the ups and downs.

497
00:25:57.398 --> 00:26:03.367
Okay, and talking about 3.3%, which was
the move to the upside for Woolies after

498
00:26:03.367 --> 00:26:05.367
its coronation announcement,

499
00:26:05.367 --> 00:26:07.367
the South African...

500
00:26:07.367 --> 00:26:10.868
And CPI data came out today, which I've
neglected to report, which I'm going to

501
00:26:10.868 --> 00:26:12.868
correct now,

502
00:26:12.868 --> 00:26:17.391
because the South African CPI rate, that's
the consumer price inflation rate, came

503
00:26:17.391 --> 00:26:19.391
down from 3.5%

504
00:26:19.391 --> 00:26:24.274
the previous month to 3.3%. So in the last
three months, it's gone 3% to 3.5%,

505
00:26:24.275 --> 00:26:30.805
3.5% to 3.3%. And that was one of the
reasons as well why perhaps the bond rate

506
00:26:30.805 --> 00:26:31.005
is at

507
00:26:31.005 --> 00:26:32.321
9.17%.

508
00:26:32.368 --> 00:26:34.524
That's the South African 10-year.

509
00:26:35.180 --> 00:26:42.066
And people are expecting that perhaps
there will be another interest rate cut

510
00:26:42.066 --> 00:26:44.066
because of inflation coming down.

511
00:26:44.066 --> 00:26:46.066
Personally, I don't think so.

512
00:26:46.066 --> 00:26:48.066
I've got, yeah, let me give you mine.

513
00:26:48.066 --> 00:26:50.066
Premier up 6.2%.

514
00:26:50.066 --> 00:26:52.066
DoD Gold up 4.2%.

515
00:26:52.066 --> 00:26:54.066
Carew up 3.4%, let's call it.

516
00:26:54.066 --> 00:26:56.066
Woolies, we've done.

517
00:26:56.066 --> 00:26:58.066
Processor, we've done.

518
00:26:58.066 --> 00:27:00.066
Life Healthcare on the downside, we've
done.

519
00:27:00.066 --> 00:27:02.066
You've done Richemont.

520
00:27:02.066 --> 00:27:04.066
Sappy down two and a third.

521
00:27:04.066 --> 00:27:06.066
Anglo's down nearly 2%.

522
00:27:06.066 --> 00:27:08.066
And Aspen down 1.9%.

523
00:27:08.066 --> 00:27:10.283
So that's what we've got, Skouk, apart
from the closing JSC indices, if you

524
00:27:10.283 --> 00:27:10.644
would.

525
00:27:10.724 --> 00:27:12.166
Yeah, the JSC is over 105,000.

526
00:27:12.167 --> 00:27:18.892
105,368 points, that is up another 46
basis points today.

527
00:27:19.595 --> 00:27:22.642
Resources took a bit of a breather today,
down 22 basis points.

528
00:27:23.189 --> 00:27:28.861
While the industrials, naturally, if
you're going to have process NASPERS up

529
00:27:28.861 --> 00:27:30.861
with those amounts, you're going to have
an

530
00:27:30.861 --> 00:27:31.345
Indy that will be flying.

531
00:27:31.564 --> 00:27:36.674
Indy It's up 1.1%, while the financial
index was up 0.3%.

532
00:27:37.092 --> 00:27:37.792
Is it property?

533
00:27:37.853 --> 00:27:38.795
Also up 0.3%.

534
00:27:39.596 --> 00:27:42.139
And yeah, value traded through the market
today.

535
00:27:42.154 --> 00:27:42.936
Let's quickly have a look.

536
00:27:43.482 --> 00:27:45.779
Value traded, quite a slow day.

537
00:27:46.045 --> 00:27:47.881
Oh, wait a minute.

538
00:27:47.982 --> 00:27:49.561
Now my screen is not updated.

539
00:27:49.670 --> 00:27:50.370
Oh, you see.

540
00:27:50.404 --> 00:27:51.701
Oh, wait, but make it quick.

541
00:27:52.467 --> 00:27:53.167
Yeah, okay.

542
00:27:53.167 --> 00:27:53.873
That's what you said.

543
00:27:57.045 --> 00:27:58.373
Yeah, yeah.

544
00:27:58.654 --> 00:27:59.639
That came back to bite me.

545
00:27:59.888 --> 00:28:01.229
So not that quiet.

546
00:28:01.269 --> 00:28:02.591
I thought we're going to be quiet.

547
00:28:02.592 --> 00:28:06.993
So as I refreshed it, it actually went
above $20 billion.

548
00:28:07.016 --> 00:28:09.618
So it was actually $22 billion value
traded for today.

549
00:28:09.860 --> 00:28:11.180
You asked for it earlier.

550
00:28:11.220 --> 00:28:13.024
I'm going to just give it a quick mention.

551
00:28:13.063 --> 00:28:14.641
Dollar index.

552
00:28:14.642 --> 00:28:15.485
Yeah, dollar index.

553
00:28:15.641 --> 00:28:19.727
Currently trading at 96.4.

554
00:28:19.728 --> 00:28:24.899
Now, that's quite interesting because it's
slightly up, and you can see it's

555
00:28:24.899 --> 00:28:26.899
struggling to stay positive.

556
00:28:26.899 --> 00:28:28.899
We'll see.

557
00:28:28.899 --> 00:28:29.024
I think it pretty much doesn't matter.

558
00:28:29.134 --> 00:28:29.834
We will.

559
00:28:30.445 --> 00:28:37.350
quarter pass quarter pass i i promise you
the the dixie won't be trading at the

560
00:28:37.350 --> 00:28:39.350
current level now this is what you want
this is what

561
00:28:39.350 --> 00:28:44.276
you want you you've got a feeling in the
back of your mind that something's going

562
00:28:44.276 --> 00:28:46.276
to happen there's going to be a bubble
bursting somewhere but you don't want

563
00:28:46.276 --> 00:28:47.065
that to happen you secretly do because

564
00:28:47.066 --> 00:28:53.972
you you could you feel it yes you do i'm
sorry you're fibbing you're fibbing to me

565
00:28:53.972 --> 00:28:55.972
it's gonna go i never never said

566
00:28:55.972 --> 00:28:58.456
which direction it's gonna go It could be
97, 98.

567
00:28:58.764 --> 00:29:00.366
I'm talking about the whole market.

568
00:29:00.446 --> 00:29:02.848
You've got a feeling that something's
going to happen.

569
00:29:03.289 --> 00:29:04.289
I've got a feeling.

570
00:29:04.309 --> 00:29:05.789
Yeah, but you don't want it to happen.

571
00:29:05.852 --> 00:29:11.254
So what you want to happen is there to be
a rate cut and a talk of future rate cuts

572
00:29:11.254 --> 00:29:11.353
as well.

573
00:29:11.575 --> 00:29:18.528
So the dollar falls further, so the gold
price goes shooting up back above 3,700

574
00:29:18.528 --> 00:29:20.528
and on its way to infinity and

575
00:29:20.528 --> 00:29:22.528
beyond.

576
00:29:22.528 --> 00:29:24.528
Borrowing a word from Toy Story.

577
00:29:24.528 --> 00:29:24.809
Not to color this any further.

578
00:29:24.856 --> 00:29:26.293
I mean, I totally agree with you, Lindsay.

579
00:29:26.606 --> 00:29:28.200
We've had a market that's...

580
00:29:28.304 --> 00:29:29.646
grown more than 25%.

581
00:29:29.647 --> 00:29:35.597
I'm talking about a local market and even
the offshore markets is now in that type

582
00:29:35.597 --> 00:29:37.597
of region.

583
00:29:37.597 --> 00:29:42.987
That's a very, very nice environment for
all listeners, for all investors, for

584
00:29:42.987 --> 00:29:44.987
everyone.

585
00:29:44.987 --> 00:29:46.987
I just want us to just...

586
00:29:46.987 --> 00:29:48.487
Finish 2025 with this sort of just...

587
00:29:48.488 --> 00:29:51.768
It's September the 17th. You're already
looking forward to your holiday.

588
00:29:54.569 --> 00:29:56.788
Wait, it's only the 17th of September.

589
00:29:57.030 --> 00:29:58.506
No, Al, then I'm taking that back.

590
00:29:58.889 --> 00:29:59.589
We're going to...

591
00:29:59.608 --> 00:30:01.670
All Al is going to break loose before the
year ends.

592
00:30:02.030 --> 00:30:02.733
No, it's not.

593
00:30:02.889 --> 00:30:04.233
Everything's going to be fine.

594
00:30:04.311 --> 00:30:05.011
We know that.

595
00:30:05.011 --> 00:30:10.186
The algorithms, the clever chaps will
write an algorithm that overrides whatever

596
00:30:10.186 --> 00:30:12.186
the Fed does.

597
00:30:12.186 --> 00:30:14.186
You know that, Skulk.

598
00:30:14.186 --> 00:30:14.437
Skulk, thank you very much for your time,
as always, on a Wednesday.

599
00:30:14.518 --> 00:30:18.582
Skulk Lowe is a portfolio manager, PSG
Wealth, Old Oak in Cape Town.

600
00:30:18.941 --> 00:30:20.320
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

601
00:30:20.883 --> 00:30:27.836
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

602
00:30:27.836 --> 00:30:29.836
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

603
00:30:29.836 --> 00:30:31.570
position or opinion of any other agency,
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604
00:30:31.914 --> 00:30:36.539
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

605
00:30:37.023 --> 00:30:40.258
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the opinions of any other

606
00:30:40.258 --> 00:30:42.258
agency, organisation, employer or company.

607
00:30:42.258 --> 00:30:43.969
of the position of any other entity other
than the speaker or the author.

608
00:30:44.250 --> 00:30:49.433
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

609
00:30:49.433 --> 00:30:49.555
change,

610
00:30:49.715 --> 00:30:52.277
revision and rethinking at any time.

611
00:30:52.598 --> 00:30:55.004
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.