WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:04.551 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.094 --> 00:00:08.716 The JFC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:08.716 --> 00:00:08.775 shadow. 4 00:00:08.775 --> 00:00:15.364 And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skullclo, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth 5 00:00:15.364 --> 00:00:17.364 Old Oak in Cape Town. 6 00:00:17.364 --> 00:00:21.434 And so we wait for next week, Skull, because every article you read is, well, 7 00:00:21.434 --> 00:00:23.434 we've got the Fed next week and everything. 8 00:00:23.434 --> 00:00:25.434 But there's a couple of things that are influencing it, notably inflation. 9 00:00:25.435 --> 00:00:29.215 We got the CPI tomorrow, I think, from the States, and we had PPI today. 10 00:00:29.760 --> 00:00:33.062 Which, strangely, came in below expectations. 11 00:00:33.584 --> 00:00:37.746 Yeah, and then you've got the worries in Qatar. 12 00:00:38.129 --> 00:00:41.168 I mean, that you can add to this escalation. 13 00:00:41.230 --> 00:00:44.152 So, yeah, there's a few uncertainties for sure. 14 00:00:44.215 --> 00:00:45.277 That's it, yeah. 15 00:00:45.457 --> 00:00:50.347 So, anyway, that's all going to happen next week, plus a couple of hours. 16 00:00:50.504 --> 00:00:55.972 And Thursday morning will be the time when you're furiously phoning your clients 17 00:00:55.972 --> 00:00:57.972 saying, I told you so, 18 00:00:57.972 --> 00:00:58.426 they've actually raised interest rates, didn't cut them. 19 00:00:58.716 --> 00:01:02.019 and the market's collapsed 8.3%. 20 00:01:02.039 --> 00:01:03.859 Where are you coming from, Lindsay? 21 00:01:04.062 --> 00:01:05.461 It'll never happen. 22 00:01:06.004 --> 00:01:10.344 So the CME Fed tool as we currently stand, I mean, it's creeping up every day. 23 00:01:12.289 --> 00:01:18.359 For the listeners out there, we've had this conversation for a few weeks, how 24 00:01:18.359 --> 00:01:20.359 it's gone from the one moment, 25 00:01:20.359 --> 00:01:20.734 the probability is as high that we'll see a cut. 26 00:01:21.203 --> 00:01:22.422 Eventually it came down. 27 00:01:23.906 --> 00:01:24.719 And now it's... 28 00:01:25.088 --> 00:01:26.109 It's 100%. 29 00:01:26.269 --> 00:01:27.531 We know it's 100% 30 00:01:27.570 --> 00:01:33.379 probability that we'll see the Fed cut rates for the first time this year on the 31 00:01:33.918 --> 00:01:36.519 17th of September in exactly a week's time. 32 00:01:36.597 --> 00:01:41.144 But, I mean, the CME Fed tool actually has changed now. 33 00:01:41.332 --> 00:01:48.050 It's actually now showing us there's a 90% probability that they're going to cut by a 34 00:01:48.050 --> 00:01:50.050 quarter of a percentage. 35 00:01:50.050 --> 00:01:53.019 But there's actually a few economists out there stating that, yeah, we're looking at 36 00:01:53.019 --> 00:01:53.033 a 10%. 37 00:01:53.612 --> 00:02:00.559 probability now that we're going to see half a percent so that's going to be very 38 00:02:00.559 --> 00:02:02.559 very interesting no no no not gonna happen it's 39 00:02:02.559 --> 00:02:06.704 far too drastic um skulk the other thing we need to talk about and it's an 40 00:02:06.704 --> 00:02:08.704 interesting one is 41 00:02:08.704 --> 00:02:13.626 anglo-american plc because a couple of days ago i suddenly saw this thing 42 00:02:13.626 --> 00:02:15.626 flashing up they've done a 50 billion 43 00:02:15.626 --> 00:02:17.626 dollar deal and 44 00:02:17.626 --> 00:02:22.016 it's called tech and it's it's it's very much skewed towards one commodity isn't it 45 00:02:22.016 --> 00:02:22.561 and 46 00:02:22.561 --> 00:02:26.790 that's copper Yeah, in a successful deal, 47 00:02:27.251 --> 00:02:33.958 you would always like to see that math calculation, the one where 1 plus 1 equals 48 00:02:33.958 --> 00:02:33.994 3. 49 00:02:35.740 --> 00:02:38.701 And when I look through this deal, 50 00:02:39.021 --> 00:02:45.294 and I've said it today to someone that the proof of the pudding is going to be in the 51 00:02:45.294 --> 00:02:45.511 eating. 52 00:02:45.872 --> 00:02:46.997 If this deal goes through, 53 00:02:47.544 --> 00:02:53.044 we're going to see how the new Anglo and tech combination is going to… 54 00:02:53.444 --> 00:02:57.368 But as they've already mentioned yesterday in the announcement, 55 00:02:57.387 --> 00:03:04.071 is that they foresee the combination of the two companies could see these combined 56 00:03:04.071 --> 00:03:06.071 companies 57 00:03:06.071 --> 00:03:08.938 mine an extra 175,000 tons of copper per annum. 58 00:03:09.258 --> 00:03:12.290 Now, that already to me is a one plus one equals three. 59 00:03:12.291 --> 00:03:15.649 So I think that's going to be an interesting thing to watch. 60 00:03:17.243 --> 00:03:20.290 Moving the head office to Canada or Vancouver. 61 00:03:21.544 --> 00:03:24.806 Yeah, that's a really, really interesting move. 62 00:03:25.267 --> 00:03:29.990 But I think it's going to be a very, very interesting merger. 63 00:03:31.435 --> 00:03:37.795 I think the biggest thing for me is going to be the effect on the JSE because 64 00:03:38.482 --> 00:03:42.873 when you look at the JSE and more specifically the weight towards resources, 65 00:03:43.373 --> 00:03:50.248 this is going to see an increase for the JSE's weight towards resources. 66 00:03:50.388 --> 00:03:51.088 So. 67 00:03:51.336 --> 00:03:56.903 Yeah, I think most analysts out there are going to need to know this stuff on recess 68 00:03:56.903 --> 00:03:58.903 going forward. 69 00:03:58.903 --> 00:04:02.610 Yeah, there are two hurdles that Anglo-American and tech need to get over, 70 00:04:02.611 --> 00:04:05.508 and that's the Canadian government and also shareholders. 71 00:04:05.587 --> 00:04:09.899 But I don't think, bar from a few clauses being changed, 72 00:04:09.962 --> 00:04:14.633 I don't think there'll be any obstacles to the merger. 73 00:04:14.696 --> 00:04:15.587 What do you think, Skulk? 74 00:04:16.446 --> 00:04:19.384 No, I doubt there's going to be any. 75 00:04:19.760 --> 00:04:26.723 any major major obstacles i i can't see that any competition commission um will 76 00:04:26.723 --> 00:04:28.723 will say that 77 00:04:28.723 --> 00:04:33.321 this although this is going to be quite a substantial and a massive massive you know 78 00:04:33.321 --> 00:04:35.321 company 79 00:04:35.321 --> 00:04:36.836 i mean in the in the uh 80 00:04:36.837 --> 00:04:43.711 it's a copper copper site i've already seen some indications that this will be 81 00:04:43.711 --> 00:04:45.711 one of the top five largest 82 00:04:45.711 --> 00:04:48.649 copper producers in the world uh but i doubt that this there's going going to 83 00:04:49.048 --> 00:04:53.709 any individual or company or even country saying that this deal can't go through. 84 00:04:53.869 --> 00:04:56.967 I think from an African point of view, it's going to be fairly sad. 85 00:04:57.030 --> 00:05:00.069 But I mean, this is sort of the Anglo-Gold playbook as well. 86 00:05:00.070 --> 00:05:06.615 We remember a few years ago, and I think this might be already five or six years 87 00:05:06.615 --> 00:05:08.615 ago, Anglo-Gold, 88 00:05:08.615 --> 00:05:12.819 and that was previously inside the Anglo-American portfolio or stall. 89 00:05:13.131 --> 00:05:13.928 Yeah. 90 00:05:14.966 --> 00:05:20.970 They got rid of every single South African gold mine, sold it, 91 00:05:21.692 --> 00:05:23.454 interesting enough, to Harmony. 92 00:05:23.954 --> 00:05:30.079 But they got rid of all the South African gold mines and today pretty much got no 93 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:32.079 holding within South Africa, 94 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:37.024 although still listed in South Africa, or secondary listed in South Africa, don't 95 00:05:37.024 --> 00:05:39.024 have any South African gold mines. 96 00:05:39.024 --> 00:05:41.946 This could be interesting for Anglo-American because they're only 97 00:05:41.946 --> 00:05:43.946 holding this new... 98 00:05:43.946 --> 00:05:48.670 Massive conglomerates going to be owning, when I say in South Africa, 99 00:05:49.112 --> 00:05:50.533 is only Kumba iron ore. 100 00:05:50.776 --> 00:05:55.760 So, yeah, the question begs, will they be keeping it? 101 00:05:56.901 --> 00:05:59.697 Is it something that they will be focusing on expanding it? 102 00:06:00.619 --> 00:06:07.604 Because, yeah, I think all the Kumba iron ore shelters could just have a look and 103 00:06:07.604 --> 00:06:09.604 see what happens to Kumba. 104 00:06:09.604 --> 00:06:10.994 I hope this goes well and I hope that the copper price goes up. 105 00:06:11.185 --> 00:06:17.109 because this is the second South African company which is linking its lot to copper 106 00:06:17.109 --> 00:06:19.109 because Harmony 107 00:06:19.109 --> 00:06:22.977 Goldmine is acquiring MAC Copper Limited for 108 00:06:22.978 --> 00:06:26.258 $1.03 billion. 109 00:06:26.297 --> 00:06:29.859 Okay, it's not a huge deal, but it's a decent one. 110 00:06:29.969 --> 00:06:34.531 And it gains a copper mine in Australia as well, 111 00:06:34.594 --> 00:06:37.766 which I mentioned to you last week about Harmony having a look at copper. 112 00:06:37.828 --> 00:06:39.109 Now Anglo-American, obviously. 113 00:06:39.573 --> 00:06:46.414 doing more than having a look at copper and yeah everything is everything is 114 00:06:46.414 --> 00:06:48.414 geared towards the 115 00:06:48.414 --> 00:06:53.637 electricity production as ai needs more electricity as electric cards needs more 116 00:06:53.637 --> 00:06:55.637 electricity it's got to be clean energy so copper 117 00:06:55.637 --> 00:06:59.692 is a major part of that so what we're going to do every time we speak now with 118 00:06:59.692 --> 00:07:01.692 the numbers is we're going to go 119 00:07:01.692 --> 00:07:06.223 through the normal one gold platinum palladium of crude oil and then we're 120 00:07:06.223 --> 00:07:08.223 going to have copper as well we have to have copper 121 00:07:08.223 --> 00:07:08.711 Do you agree with that, Scott? 122 00:07:08.712 --> 00:07:09.412 We'll need to have it. 123 00:07:09.413 --> 00:07:10.113 We've got to have copper. 124 00:07:10.113 --> 00:07:10.773 Yeah, we'll need to have it. 125 00:07:10.773 --> 00:07:11.353 Definitely. 126 00:07:11.353 --> 00:07:11.574 We'll need to have it. 127 00:07:12.375 --> 00:07:15.855 I actually found us Africans to be really, really funny, Lindsay. 128 00:07:15.856 --> 00:07:20.121 I mean, something happened, some big event happened, good or bad. 129 00:07:20.566 --> 00:07:23.168 One of the first things usually happens is, you know, 130 00:07:23.183 --> 00:07:27.808 us Africans will make some joke about the event. 131 00:07:28.605 --> 00:07:30.340 And yesterday was no different. 132 00:07:30.590 --> 00:07:32.418 And I think the tweet of the day. 133 00:07:32.433 --> 00:07:33.133 Go on. 134 00:07:33.133 --> 00:07:35.574 And I need to give him props. 135 00:07:36.249 --> 00:07:39.969 was Pitfall Yoon's tweet on this deal. 136 00:07:40.610 --> 00:07:46.508 And he just said, I don't have the tweet in front of me, but I'm going to sort of 137 00:07:46.508 --> 00:07:46.616 guess, 138 00:07:46.915 --> 00:07:48.274 sort of more or less the tweet. 139 00:07:48.813 --> 00:07:54.868 He said, this must be sort of the kiss of death for copper. 140 00:07:55.087 --> 00:07:55.787 Yeah. 141 00:07:55.787 --> 00:08:01.399 Because Anglo-American has become the Jim Cramer of South African investments, 142 00:08:02.430 --> 00:08:04.368 getting it wrong consistently. 143 00:08:04.369 --> 00:08:05.069 See you now. 144 00:08:05.313 --> 00:08:06.495 I mean, this is out there. 145 00:08:06.496 --> 00:08:13.120 I mean, we know, I mean, since I think pretty much 2008-ish, I mean, Agner 146 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:15.120 American did get it wrong. 147 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:18.788 I mean, there was a few times over the past 20 years where this company got so 148 00:08:18.788 --> 00:08:20.788 close going bankrupt. 149 00:08:20.788 --> 00:08:24.389 And they got some of these commodities, you know, incorrect. 150 00:08:25.077 --> 00:08:26.014 But I think this time around... 151 00:08:26.015 --> 00:08:31.561 They got out of platinum just as the platinum market started to turn, of 152 00:08:31.561 --> 00:08:33.561 course, didn't they? 153 00:08:33.561 --> 00:08:35.561 Yeah, exactly. 154 00:08:35.561 --> 00:08:37.561 Exactly. 155 00:08:37.561 --> 00:08:42.201 So, I mean, Anglo-American, the dream grammar of South African investments or, 156 00:08:42.201 --> 00:08:44.201 you know, international mining houses is, I think, 157 00:08:44.201 --> 00:08:46.201 the tweet of the day. 158 00:08:46.201 --> 00:08:48.201 Well, let's watch this thing. 159 00:08:48.201 --> 00:08:49.908 As I said, it's been all over the place with Trump pushing it up 20 percent and 160 00:08:49.908 --> 00:08:51.908 then down 20 161 00:08:51.908 --> 00:08:52.134 percent on the COMEX in New York. 162 00:08:52.853 --> 00:08:58.853 It's settled down now a bit, but we'll come to that later on and have a look at 163 00:08:58.853 --> 00:09:00.853 the moment on other companies. 164 00:09:00.853 --> 00:09:03.087 And I know you want to talk about GrowthPoint because you like property, 165 00:09:03.087 --> 00:09:05.087 don't you? 166 00:09:05.087 --> 00:09:05.755 Yeah, I love property. 167 00:09:06.875 --> 00:09:08.879 It's been kind to me over the past few years. 168 00:09:09.297 --> 00:09:16.281 It's been one of those companies which I also sort of had in my portfolio as one of 169 00:09:16.281 --> 00:09:16.506 the star 170 00:09:16.506 --> 00:09:20.094 portfolios, overweight positions that I had. 171 00:09:21.062 --> 00:09:23.578 Results today, I thought, looked pretty decent. 172 00:09:25.156 --> 00:09:27.859 I think I had a few comments in my team this morning. 173 00:09:29.281 --> 00:09:30.453 The one was boring. 174 00:09:31.719 --> 00:09:32.656 The one was... 175 00:09:32.985 --> 00:09:34.206 oh, it's just too simple. 176 00:09:35.967 --> 00:09:38.971 And again, there's another saying that goes, you know, simple is safe. 177 00:09:39.651 --> 00:09:41.276 This was a solid set of results. 178 00:09:41.315 --> 00:09:43.932 Revenue up 2.2%. 179 00:09:43.933 --> 00:09:47.401 Your distributable income, that was up 3.1%. 180 00:09:47.402 --> 00:09:49.885 Look at the dividend, that was up another 6.1%. 181 00:09:50.869 --> 00:09:52.026 Things that stood out for me. 182 00:09:52.166 --> 00:09:57.026 I mean, this company's still got a NAV of 19 rand, 88 per share. 183 00:09:57.307 --> 00:10:01.572 That's putting it at a, let's call it just sharp, a 28% discount. 184 00:10:02.308 --> 00:10:03.757 to its next asset value. 185 00:10:05.189 --> 00:10:09.753 When you look at over the past, let's call it 15 years, and let's exclude that 186 00:10:09.753 --> 00:10:09.793 period, 187 00:10:09.793 --> 00:10:15.081 that 2008-2009 period where it was just absurd levels, 188 00:10:16.300 --> 00:10:18.081 where the likes of 189 00:10:18.839 --> 00:10:23.527 GrowthPoint traded 120-130% NAV. 190 00:10:24.027 --> 00:10:25.355 I mean, let's exclude that. 191 00:10:25.433 --> 00:10:30.073 If we look at the past, let's call it seven, eight years, 192 00:10:30.792 --> 00:10:33.714 this company has come from a 2000... 193 00:10:34.025 --> 00:10:34.866 and 2018, 194 00:10:34.867 --> 00:10:41.792 2017 levels of just over trading at NAV to now still trading 28% 195 00:10:41.831 --> 00:10:42.531 discount. 196 00:10:43.472 --> 00:10:46.097 I don't think it's expensive. 197 00:10:46.534 --> 00:10:50.659 It's still trading at a forward dividend multiple of 198 00:10:50.784 --> 00:10:54.722 9.5%. 199 00:10:54.723 --> 00:10:55.831 That's a great return. 200 00:10:55.847 --> 00:11:02.347 I mean, that's giving you very similar interest than... 201 00:11:02.625 --> 00:11:03.907 than the current long bond rate. 202 00:11:04.026 --> 00:11:07.549 So that's always a, it's called a big plus for me. 203 00:11:08.670 --> 00:11:10.413 They mentioned that things are looking good. 204 00:11:10.471 --> 00:11:16.862 They specifically highlighted the fact that the V&A waterfront is expected to 205 00:11:16.862 --> 00:11:17.140 deliver 206 00:11:17.620 --> 00:11:21.987 double digit growth within the financial year in 2026. 207 00:11:23.065 --> 00:11:29.956 Despite these renovations that they've got, and we know looking beyond that, this 208 00:11:29.956 --> 00:11:31.956 is still one of the best, one of the best, I would say, 209 00:11:31.956 --> 00:11:33.956 one of the best. 210 00:11:33.956 --> 00:11:35.956 properties in the world. 211 00:11:35.956 --> 00:11:39.246 So, I mean, if you're a holder of GrowthPoint, I would definitely not be in 212 00:11:39.246 --> 00:11:41.246 a rush to sell it. 213 00:11:41.246 --> 00:11:42.746 I mean, not at a 9.5% dividend yield. 214 00:11:43.270 --> 00:11:45.473 And if you're not holding it, just watch it. 215 00:11:45.474 --> 00:11:52.059 If you want something simple or boring in your portfolio that's just going to juggle 216 00:11:52.059 --> 00:11:54.059 around, I would definitely be looking to increase my holding. 217 00:11:54.059 --> 00:11:58.668 Old Mutual also came out with results today and the share price is actually 218 00:11:58.668 --> 00:12:00.668 doing quite nicely, up about two and three quarters percent. 219 00:12:00.668 --> 00:12:02.668 Are you a fan? 220 00:12:02.668 --> 00:12:04.668 Did it do well? 221 00:12:04.668 --> 00:12:06.668 Tell us more. 222 00:12:06.668 --> 00:12:08.668 Yeah, it was good. 223 00:12:08.668 --> 00:12:10.668 I mean, today, that's another thing. 224 00:12:10.668 --> 00:12:12.668 I mean, it's just to me that this is not a company that I'm owning. 225 00:12:12.668 --> 00:12:15.156 And I'm struggling to see a massive investment case. 226 00:12:15.157 --> 00:12:18.398 So the results were pretty good. 227 00:12:18.663 --> 00:12:22.460 I mean, I thought it was not too bad. 228 00:12:23.429 --> 00:12:28.507 But I struggle to find where they're going to be seeing their growth. 229 00:12:29.985 --> 00:12:31.967 I mean, I know they're trading at fairly low multiples. 230 00:12:32.928 --> 00:12:38.915 If you're looking for a company that's because the company is trading at, let's 231 00:12:38.915 --> 00:12:40.915 call it, 6%, 6.5% dividend yield, 232 00:12:40.915 --> 00:12:41.118 that's a big plus. 233 00:12:42.219 --> 00:12:47.423 But at ROE, return on equity of over 13%, I mean, 234 00:12:48.219 --> 00:12:50.219 it's just such a low-growth company. 235 00:12:51.751 --> 00:12:58.579 And besides buying it for the dividend and just some capital growth, well 236 00:12:58.909 --> 00:13:02.453 This is the company that I would say is a little bit too boring for me currently. 237 00:13:02.732 --> 00:13:09.599 I prefer Sunlum. Sunlum's set of results came out, I think, last week or two weeks 238 00:13:09.599 --> 00:13:11.599 ago, if I'm not mistaken. 239 00:13:11.599 --> 00:13:16.208 And there they've shown a sort of a stronger migration towards financial and 240 00:13:16.208 --> 00:13:18.208 investment services. 241 00:13:18.208 --> 00:13:20.208 That I did like. 242 00:13:20.208 --> 00:13:24.458 So, yeah, not a bad set of results coming from Mutual, but I still prefer 243 00:13:25.396 --> 00:13:26.271 Sunlum at current levels. 244 00:13:26.657 --> 00:13:28.379 Okay, that's a couple out the way. 245 00:13:28.579 --> 00:13:32.661 But the one that didn't do so well was Metair because the share price down nearly 246 00:13:32.661 --> 00:13:34.661 10%. 247 00:13:34.661 --> 00:13:35.364 Metair fell off the radar, didn't it? 248 00:13:35.365 --> 00:13:38.489 It was the darling with the battery business and Turkey and everything. 249 00:13:38.708 --> 00:13:39.408 What happened? 250 00:13:40.388 --> 00:13:43.731 No, I don't follow the company at all. 251 00:13:43.732 --> 00:13:45.716 I can't give any comments. 252 00:13:45.794 --> 00:13:48.653 I've got a similar view. 253 00:13:48.685 --> 00:13:51.138 I know the company wasn't. 254 00:13:51.681 --> 00:13:58.224 you know consistently and constantly in in in the media and the newspapers on on you 255 00:13:58.224 --> 00:14:00.224 know these 256 00:14:00.224 --> 00:14:05.181 let's call it the you mentioned the battery side um but yeah i just saw this 257 00:14:05.181 --> 00:14:07.181 morning the results 258 00:14:07.181 --> 00:14:12.181 didn't look too good didn't look too good at all okay well we didn't get to the 259 00:14:12.181 --> 00:14:14.181 bottom of that one but uh yeah just to let you know if you are a 260 00:14:14.181 --> 00:14:18.869 shareholder watch out because uh there's some fallout from those results 10 today 261 00:14:18.869 --> 00:14:20.869 so well so far the market is 262 00:14:20.869 --> 00:14:21.435 closed What else have we got to look at, Scalp? 263 00:14:21.455 --> 00:14:25.397 If you have to look at gold, it got close to $3,700. 264 00:14:25.398 --> 00:14:26.098 Yeah, just like it. 265 00:14:26.299 --> 00:14:32.545 No, it's, I mean, we've got a few things playing, you know, absolutely towards 266 00:14:32.545 --> 00:14:34.545 gold. 267 00:14:34.545 --> 00:14:38.631 I mean, the one moment you sorted off the show stating that all eyes are now on the 268 00:14:38.631 --> 00:14:40.631 17th of September. 269 00:14:40.631 --> 00:14:43.037 I mean, we've seen Trump, President Trump come out. 270 00:14:43.053 --> 00:14:44.444 I think it was yesterday or the day before. 271 00:14:44.772 --> 00:14:47.819 And when I say come out, it was again, it was a tweet he brought out. 272 00:14:48.313 --> 00:14:55.201 Where he absolutely pummeled it, Powell again, went into him and said, 273 00:14:55.279 --> 00:15:00.545 well, you were late increasing rates back in 2021. 274 00:15:01.162 --> 00:15:05.552 Now you're absolutely behind the curve and late reducing rates. 275 00:15:05.834 --> 00:15:06.552 What does he know? 276 00:15:06.865 --> 00:15:07.565 Come on now. 277 00:15:08.271 --> 00:15:09.052 I know, I know. 278 00:15:09.068 --> 00:15:13.740 And he's putting so much pressure on the Fed. 279 00:15:13.802 --> 00:15:17.240 And I don't say that Powell and Neshe succumb to that. 280 00:15:17.629 --> 00:15:24.311 to the pressures but you can see it's it's definitely having an effect mr market is 281 00:15:24.311 --> 00:15:26.311 telling us since that tweet 282 00:15:26.311 --> 00:15:31.432 You could see, and that's where this probability suddenly increased from the 283 00:15:31.432 --> 00:15:33.432 quarter of a percent to even a half a percent. 284 00:15:33.432 --> 00:15:35.432 Nobody entertained the half a percent. 285 00:15:35.432 --> 00:15:38.377 You and I had this conversation, I think exactly two weeks ago, where I said, this 286 00:15:38.377 --> 00:15:40.377 will be, I think, 287 00:15:40.377 --> 00:15:41.323 the most interesting play. 288 00:15:41.385 --> 00:15:45.229 I mean, if we see a half a percent on the 17th of September, 289 00:15:45.885 --> 00:15:48.448 I would not be calling tops in this market anytime soon. 290 00:15:49.073 --> 00:15:51.354 And here we're sitting, it's a 10% probability. 291 00:15:51.699 --> 00:15:53.561 There's still a week to go. 292 00:15:53.901 --> 00:15:55.702 But there's two ways to look at that, Skulk. 293 00:15:55.725 --> 00:15:58.327 If you say, well, 50 basis points, they've never done that. 294 00:15:58.385 --> 00:16:02.350 Or the last time they did it was in 1932 or something like that. 295 00:16:02.373 --> 00:16:08.170 I don't know what the number is, but I've never seen a 50 basis point cut. 296 00:16:08.217 --> 00:16:09.358 But then my memory is going. 297 00:16:09.920 --> 00:16:13.139 25 basis points is all we've dealt in over the last few years. 298 00:16:13.639 --> 00:16:14.608 There's two ways to look at it. 299 00:16:14.639 --> 00:16:18.780 Yes, that is absolutely fantastic cheap money, and it's great for growth stocks 300 00:16:18.780 --> 00:16:20.780 historically. 301 00:16:20.780 --> 00:16:22.780 Yes, it is. 302 00:16:22.780 --> 00:16:25.906 but if he did that it would shock the market and it's a wait a second what do 303 00:16:25.906 --> 00:16:27.906 you see do 304 00:16:27.906 --> 00:16:32.430 you see that 911 000 jobs that is going to be taken off the payrolls data that we've 305 00:16:32.430 --> 00:16:34.430 already got by 306 00:16:34.430 --> 00:16:35.656 the bureau of labor statistics so that means 76 307 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:42.742 000 jobs a month less than the ones that were reported they're looking at that and 308 00:16:42.742 --> 00:16:44.742 seeing a deep deep problem in the labor 309 00:16:44.742 --> 00:16:49.633 market so if they are then people say that's not good for that's not good for 310 00:16:49.633 --> 00:16:51.633 corporate profits let's sell so there's two ways of 311 00:16:51.633 --> 00:16:53.633 looking at it. 312 00:16:53.633 --> 00:16:56.424 the pessimistic way, which is in the minority, or the optimistic way, which 313 00:16:56.424 --> 00:16:58.424 undoubtedly would win, I think. 314 00:16:58.424 --> 00:17:00.424 Yeah, yeah, for sure. 315 00:17:00.424 --> 00:17:05.795 But I think it wasn't that this comment you mentioned, I've never seen this and 316 00:17:05.795 --> 00:17:07.795 I've never seen this. 317 00:17:07.795 --> 00:17:12.513 I mean, I can just tell you, I mean, President Trump entered his second term, 318 00:17:12.513 --> 00:17:12.526 you know, 319 00:17:12.526 --> 00:17:14.248 on the 21st of January this year. 320 00:17:14.807 --> 00:17:19.451 And since then, I've had a few things which I've never seen in my life before. 321 00:17:19.971 --> 00:17:26.795 So, I mean, and one of them, him being quite vocal on how bad, 322 00:17:27.920 --> 00:17:32.561 you know, his chairman of the Federal Reserve, you know, is. 323 00:17:33.233 --> 00:17:35.451 I mean, anything can happen. 324 00:17:35.608 --> 00:17:40.967 I don't necessarily say that that is going to happen or, you know, 325 00:17:41.576 --> 00:17:43.592 will be good because I don't think it will be good. 326 00:17:43.867 --> 00:17:44.567 at all. 327 00:17:45.068 --> 00:17:49.794 But I think this is one of the reasons why we've seen gold react over the past few 328 00:17:49.794 --> 00:17:50.112 days, 329 00:17:50.112 --> 00:17:56.580 because we can clearly see there's going to be pressure on reducing interest rates 330 00:17:56.580 --> 00:17:58.580 and reducing it quicker than 331 00:17:58.580 --> 00:17:59.080 let's call it expected. 332 00:17:59.462 --> 00:18:02.111 Then secondly, I mean, we've mentioned it as well. 333 00:18:02.548 --> 00:18:08.017 I mean, Israel now going against Hamas in Qatar, 334 00:18:09.048 --> 00:18:10.236 that's also a big one. 335 00:18:10.517 --> 00:18:13.376 And I think everybody is worried that that could 336 00:18:13.679 --> 00:18:19.906 again escalate you know further so um yeah gold price there we go three three 337 00:18:19.906 --> 00:18:20.166 thousand seven 338 00:18:20.166 --> 00:18:26.789 hundred i'm just putting into i'm just putting into a microsoft while you chat 339 00:18:26.789 --> 00:18:28.789 away i'm just putting into microsoft 340 00:18:28.789 --> 00:18:29.898 co-pilot when did the fed last cut 341 00:18:29.992 --> 00:18:36.867 rates by 50 basis points see what this thing comes up with incidentally while i'm 342 00:18:36.867 --> 00:18:38.867 doing that i put in two 343 00:18:38.867 --> 00:18:42.914 new ai apps on my phone today one is called perplexity and the other which is 344 00:18:42.914 --> 00:18:42.989 american 345 00:18:43.203 --> 00:18:45.545 And the other one is Chinese called Deep Seeker. 346 00:18:45.565 --> 00:18:46.788 Do you use either of those? 347 00:18:47.948 --> 00:18:51.151 Yeah, I use the usual suspects. 348 00:18:52.956 --> 00:18:54.471 But don't disregard grok. 349 00:18:54.752 --> 00:18:55.596 No, I've got grok. 350 00:18:55.612 --> 00:18:56.312 I love grok. 351 00:18:57.299 --> 00:19:00.206 Yeah, so grok, I love using grok as well. 352 00:19:00.627 --> 00:19:04.331 But yeah, all those that you just mentioned, I do use them. 353 00:19:05.549 --> 00:19:09.456 The most recent 50 basis point cut half a percent by the U.S. 354 00:19:09.487 --> 00:19:11.409 Federal Reserve occurred in September. 355 00:19:12.237 --> 00:19:12.937 and... 356 00:19:13.135 --> 00:19:15.276 September the 18th, 2024. 357 00:19:15.277 --> 00:19:16.579 I told you my memory was going. 358 00:19:16.919 --> 00:19:23.784 September the 18th, 2024. This was the Fed's first rate cut in four years, 359 00:19:23.847 --> 00:19:29.964 bringing the federal funds target rate down to a range of 475 to 5 percent. 360 00:19:30.245 --> 00:19:32.557 Oh, OK. 361 00:19:34.479 --> 00:19:35.179 So that was it. 362 00:19:35.179 --> 00:19:41.964 Oh, of course, you know, that was probably politically motivated because that would 363 00:19:41.964 --> 00:19:43.964 have been Biden's last 364 00:19:43.964 --> 00:19:45.964 Fed. 365 00:19:45.964 --> 00:19:49.937 meeting is that correct yeah yeah that that is correct yes yes 366 00:19:50.019 --> 00:19:55.785 almost or this or the penultimate one yeah yeah okay so that was it politics but just 367 00:19:56.285 --> 00:19:59.949 again while you were you were going into i 368 00:19:59.980 --> 00:20:03.996 did the same i mean here's also a few things which which um 369 00:20:04.560 --> 00:20:10.446 which Trump actually said over the past, let's call it, year. 370 00:20:10.704 --> 00:20:11.888 You mean lied about. 371 00:20:11.946 --> 00:20:13.446 You're talking about his lies now, aren't you? 372 00:20:13.688 --> 00:20:14.388 No, no, no. 373 00:20:14.388 --> 00:20:18.149 I'm just having things where you just can't believe he will actually say this. 374 00:20:19.134 --> 00:20:21.274 For instance, I looked at Powell. 375 00:20:21.275 --> 00:20:25.087 I mean, in May, he said, too late, 376 00:20:25.118 --> 00:20:28.649 Jerome Powell is a fool who doesn't have a clue. 377 00:20:28.696 --> 00:20:29.602 Now, this is one of the things. 378 00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:33.446 So then he got branded as Jerome Too Late Powell. 379 00:20:34.609 --> 00:20:36.911 So he's referred numerous times, 380 00:20:36.912 --> 00:20:41.915 he's referred to too late Jerome Powell. 381 00:20:41.916 --> 00:20:42.774 And then he'll go off. 382 00:20:42.860 --> 00:20:47.243 And then, I mean, what was it, August last month, and this one I remember, 383 00:20:48.446 --> 00:20:53.188 in a truth on his social post, he slammed Powell and says that 384 00:20:53.594 --> 00:20:56.657 Powell is one of the dumbest and most destructive people. 385 00:20:56.735 --> 00:20:57.435 Huh? 386 00:20:57.435 --> 00:20:59.297 Are you kidding? 387 00:20:59.719 --> 00:21:00.469 You can't say that. 388 00:21:00.788 --> 00:21:01.488 That's just rude. 389 00:21:01.488 --> 00:21:02.168 It's ignorant. 390 00:21:02.168 --> 00:21:02.788 It's piggish. 391 00:21:03.309 --> 00:21:09.068 It's actually a disgraceful display of disrespect by Donald Trump. 392 00:21:09.092 --> 00:21:09.792 Yeah. 393 00:21:09.792 --> 00:21:10.253 OK. 394 00:21:10.253 --> 00:21:14.131 Let's have a look at some markets now, Scott, because I like the RAND. 395 00:21:14.287 --> 00:21:17.279 I like the RAND below 1750 against the US dollar. 396 00:21:17.514 --> 00:21:22.014 That's a 1.3% fall for the dollar against the mighty local currency. 397 00:21:22.092 --> 00:21:23.029 Well done to the RAND. 398 00:21:23.295 --> 00:21:25.639 British pound against the RAND, 2368. 399 00:21:26.826 --> 00:21:28.717 That's the pound down a quarter of a percent. 400 00:21:28.779 --> 00:21:29.717 and the euro round. 401 00:21:30.192 --> 00:21:33.795 It's 20.49, down nearly half a percent for the euro. 402 00:21:33.877 --> 00:21:34.615 Well done, the Rand. 403 00:21:35.037 --> 00:21:37.740 Euro-dollar, 117.25. 404 00:21:37.959 --> 00:21:41.541 That is a euro that's gained 0.8% against the US dollar. 405 00:21:42.400 --> 00:21:45.384 British pound, 135.40. 406 00:21:45.385 --> 00:21:50.947 I'm surprised it's so high, especially with the political machinations going on 407 00:21:50.947 --> 00:21:50.991 over there. 408 00:21:50.991 --> 00:21:56.556 The gold price, 36.48 which is gosh 409 00:21:57.404 --> 00:21:59.265 Up 21 it says here, I hope that's right. 410 00:21:59.304 --> 00:22:04.605 Platinum is up $24 an ounce to $13.95, that's 1.7%. 411 00:22:04.707 --> 00:22:08.183 The star performer of the white metals is palladium, up nearly 7%, 412 00:22:08.230 --> 00:22:12.246 $79 an ounce to $12.21, 413 00:22:12.247 --> 00:22:18.832 only $170 away from parity with its larger trading cousin, platinum. 414 00:22:19.425 --> 00:22:25.050 Okay, I promised you that we would add copper to our list, so let's start with 415 00:22:25.050 --> 00:22:27.050 copper today. 416 00:22:27.050 --> 00:22:32.157 Copper is $4.55 per pound in US dollars. 417 00:22:32.200 --> 00:22:37.200 As I said, it's traded on the Commodity Exchange in New York rather than the 418 00:22:37.200 --> 00:22:39.200 London Metal Exchange. 419 00:22:39.200 --> 00:22:39.645 1.1% higher today. 420 00:22:40.028 --> 00:22:45.466 Brent crude oil is $67.37, 1.5% up. 421 00:22:45.997 --> 00:22:50.778 And West Texas is $63.63, up 1.6% on the day. 422 00:22:50.841 --> 00:22:51.903 So commodities doing... 423 00:22:52.340 --> 00:22:53.361 Very nicely. 424 00:22:53.441 --> 00:22:56.444 South African 10-year bond yield is 9.48%. 425 00:22:56.445 --> 00:23:00.952 You know, early April, it was 11.08% scale. 426 00:23:00.967 --> 00:23:02.046 I mean, what a move. 427 00:23:02.047 --> 00:23:08.272 150, 160 basis points for the South African 10-year, the yield to the 428 00:23:08.272 --> 00:23:10.272 downside. 429 00:23:10.272 --> 00:23:12.186 US 10-year also doing very well indeed. 430 00:23:12.296 --> 00:23:15.249 406, 4.06%. 431 00:23:15.250 --> 00:23:17.717 That was in the 440s only, what, six weeks ago. 432 00:23:18.686 --> 00:23:20.155 And then the S&P 500. 433 00:23:20.940 --> 00:23:22.582 Let's go to the stock market now. 434 00:23:22.781 --> 00:23:26.467 It's chugging along as it tends to do, up 0.4%. 435 00:23:26.725 --> 00:23:31.873 The S&P futures 6,547. 436 00:23:31.874 --> 00:23:33.233 They're almost the spot month now. 437 00:23:33.873 --> 00:23:38.670 And finally, Bitcoin is also doing well, up 2.6% 438 00:23:38.701 --> 00:23:43.061 to 113,813. 439 00:23:43.062 --> 00:23:43.762 So, nice day, Skulk. 440 00:23:44.201 --> 00:23:47.592 What have been the movers on the JSC individual stocks-wise, please? 441 00:23:49.014 --> 00:23:54.201 so we heard We had Anglo-American move again today, another 2.6%. 442 00:23:54.202 --> 00:24:00.341 I'm not going to look at top performers for now, but we had Anglo-American move 443 00:24:00.341 --> 00:24:02.341 2.6% again today. 444 00:24:02.341 --> 00:24:02.919 And also Rimgrove. 445 00:24:02.920 --> 00:24:05.044 Rimgrove brought out a trading statement. 446 00:24:06.005 --> 00:24:07.591 This is one of my darlings as well. 447 00:24:08.388 --> 00:24:11.669 Really great guidance, great, great upside. 448 00:24:12.279 --> 00:24:15.388 It seems like they're going to see the heaps grow quite substantially. 449 00:24:16.310 --> 00:24:18.888 And that move with Rimgrove also up. 450 00:24:19.869 --> 00:24:21.191 2.3%. 451 00:24:21.231 --> 00:24:24.698 Yeah, I mean, I think the things have stood out. 452 00:24:24.859 --> 00:24:31.366 You mentioned the likes of the PGMs, which naturally help the likes of the Impalas, 453 00:24:31.405 --> 00:24:34.796 Volterras, those companies move up slightly. 454 00:24:35.538 --> 00:24:39.679 But, I mean, it's been dominated by gold, as you mentioned, with the gold price 455 00:24:39.679 --> 00:24:40.079 running. 456 00:24:40.079 --> 00:24:40.380 Yeah, look at the golds. 457 00:24:40.380 --> 00:24:41.140 I've got the top four. 458 00:24:41.261 --> 00:24:42.058 Sorry to interrupt. 459 00:24:42.120 --> 00:24:45.280 I've got the top four and the top five gold diggers. 460 00:24:45.640 --> 00:24:51.444 DRD up 4.5%, Anglo Gold up 4.3%, Harmony up 4.25%, 461 00:24:51.522 --> 00:24:57.976 Goldfields up 3.8%, and then coming in fifth, another one that you like, Growth 462 00:24:57.976 --> 00:24:59.976 Point up 463 00:24:59.976 --> 00:25:02.569 3.1%. We'll come to that in a second, but let me give you the downside first. 464 00:25:02.991 --> 00:25:04.163 It's Altile down tip. 465 00:25:04.266 --> 00:25:06.107 10.6%. 466 00:25:06.309 --> 00:25:08.150 Alphamyn down 7.25%. 467 00:25:08.629 --> 00:25:11.332 Wilson Bailey down 6.5%. 468 00:25:11.333 --> 00:25:13.277 Nepi Rockcastle down 5%. 469 00:25:13.676 --> 00:25:15.777 And ABSA down 4.5%. 470 00:25:15.801 --> 00:25:17.621 Any ex-divs there? 471 00:25:17.637 --> 00:25:19.840 Because it looks suspiciously like there should be. 472 00:25:22.418 --> 00:25:27.527 It's been a very bad day for the banks. 473 00:25:27.684 --> 00:25:28.384 It's just been... 474 00:25:29.102 --> 00:25:29.903 But I'm into your question. 475 00:25:29.943 --> 00:25:32.666 Yeah, Standard Bank was one. 476 00:25:32.746 --> 00:25:33.867 APSA is one as well. 477 00:25:34.265 --> 00:25:36.730 ItalTal, I don't know if you mentioned ItalTal. 478 00:25:36.731 --> 00:25:38.351 Yes, I did. 479 00:25:38.352 --> 00:25:39.210 10.6% down. 480 00:25:39.249 --> 00:25:39.949 Why is that? 481 00:25:40.570 --> 00:25:44.460 No, that's also, that was a 1.20 dividend. 482 00:25:44.515 --> 00:25:45.515 It's just an ex-div story. 483 00:25:45.640 --> 00:25:46.340 Good. 484 00:25:46.340 --> 00:25:50.296 And just by the way, here's an interesting factoid. 485 00:25:50.609 --> 00:25:54.734 I mean, I think you mentioned Goldfields is one of the top performers, if I'm not 486 00:25:54.734 --> 00:25:54.762 mistaken. 487 00:25:54.762 --> 00:25:57.937 Yes, I did, up 3.8%. Yes. 488 00:25:58.538 --> 00:26:05.124 But you need to add another seven rand because that's also been an ex-dev story. 489 00:26:05.444 --> 00:26:06.144 Oh, no, sorry. 490 00:26:06.144 --> 00:26:06.644 You know what? 491 00:26:06.644 --> 00:26:07.086 It's not. 492 00:26:07.104 --> 00:26:08.065 It's not an ex-dev story. 493 00:26:08.089 --> 00:26:10.026 I just thought for a second. 494 00:26:10.432 --> 00:26:11.132 This is great. 495 00:26:11.354 --> 00:26:12.054 No, it is. 496 00:26:12.054 --> 00:26:12.507 Here we go. 497 00:26:12.675 --> 00:26:13.375 I can see it. 498 00:26:13.375 --> 00:26:14.714 Last day to trade. 499 00:26:15.042 --> 00:26:16.214 It's a seven rand today. 500 00:26:16.573 --> 00:26:17.714 It was yesterday. 501 00:26:17.792 --> 00:26:18.557 Last day to trade was. 502 00:26:19.042 --> 00:26:21.261 So it knocked off a seven rand. 503 00:26:22.134 --> 00:26:25.798 dividend yesterday and then still managed to increase by 4%. 504 00:26:26.179 --> 00:26:27.359 But here's where I want to get to. 505 00:26:27.360 --> 00:26:29.640 I mean, this is just crazy stuff. 506 00:26:29.722 --> 00:26:31.324 It's absolutely bonkers. 507 00:26:32.683 --> 00:26:35.425 You've had Deben Riddipo did, which was up 4.5%. 508 00:26:36.105 --> 00:26:41.113 Year-to-date performance with currency, it's 135%. 509 00:26:41.988 --> 00:26:45.535 You had Anglo Gold second, was 4.4% up today. 510 00:26:46.082 --> 00:26:50.003 Year-to-date performance now sitting at 172%. 511 00:26:51.458 --> 00:26:52.158 How many? 512 00:26:52.720 --> 00:26:55.042 Up today, 4.3%. 513 00:26:55.043 --> 00:26:58.527 Year-to-date, that's a lag, but still, that's up 80%. 514 00:26:59.605 --> 00:27:03.113 Goldfields, which we mentioned, traded extra, still up 4%. 515 00:27:03.370 --> 00:27:10.214 That is trading up currently 163% year-to-date. 516 00:27:10.542 --> 00:27:11.242 And what was it? 517 00:27:11.277 --> 00:27:12.433 Pan-African Resources. 518 00:27:12.495 --> 00:27:18.324 Pan-African Resources, they're sitting at 122% for year-to-date. 519 00:27:18.730 --> 00:27:19.430 This is just... 520 00:27:19.430 --> 00:27:26.306 crazy crazy performances you know coming from from our gold diggers just absolutely 521 00:27:26.306 --> 00:27:28.306 dominating 522 00:27:28.306 --> 00:27:33.630 dominating the market this year i remember the late dr clive roffy talking to me 523 00:27:33.630 --> 00:27:35.630 about drd gold and he used to bang 524 00:27:35.630 --> 00:27:40.459 on about it i think it's about five round a share at the time of gold shares were 525 00:27:40.459 --> 00:27:42.459 you couldn't give them away and he always said it's going to 50 round a share 526 00:27:42.459 --> 00:27:44.459 lindsey well 527 00:27:44.459 --> 00:27:47.740 that was 20 years ago so i mean yeah and he's dead now shame poor thing um but uh 528 00:27:48.166 --> 00:27:54.111 He actually passed away just prior to the gold run actually started. 529 00:27:54.112 --> 00:27:55.213 It was actually so sad. 530 00:27:55.513 --> 00:27:59.580 It was, because he was the ultimate gold bull. 531 00:27:59.916 --> 00:28:06.627 I don't know what his charts would be telling him that it would go to now, but 532 00:28:06.627 --> 00:28:08.627 I'm sure it would be something very, very glamorous, Skulk. 533 00:28:08.627 --> 00:28:14.439 Okay, I think that's it, apart from you giving us the closing indices on the JSC 534 00:28:14.439 --> 00:28:16.439 Securities Exchange, please. 535 00:28:16.439 --> 00:28:22.405 So the JSE today closed slightly up 35 basis points at 103,588 points, 536 00:28:23.167 --> 00:28:29.394 dominated by the resource index and most probably dominated by the diggers, you 537 00:28:29.394 --> 00:28:31.394 know, up 2.75%. 538 00:28:31.394 --> 00:28:36.753 Industrials, they were down 32 basis points, while financials, they were down 539 00:28:36.753 --> 00:28:38.753 70 basis points. 540 00:28:38.753 --> 00:28:42.425 Essay property, a little out from growth point, that was up a quarter of a 541 00:28:42.425 --> 00:28:42.688 percentage. 542 00:28:42.688 --> 00:28:47.770 When we look at the value traded going through the market today, Well, 24 billion 543 00:28:47.770 --> 00:28:49.770 traded today. 544 00:28:49.770 --> 00:28:51.770 Not a bad day at all. 545 00:28:51.770 --> 00:28:53.770 Very good. 546 00:28:53.770 --> 00:28:56.416 And not a bad analysis from Skullclaw, who's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth 547 00:28:56.416 --> 00:28:58.416 Old Oak in Cape Town. 548 00:28:58.416 --> 00:29:00.416 And that was the five o'clock shadow. 549 00:29:00.416 --> 00:29:05.197 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 550 00:29:05.197 --> 00:29:07.197 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 551 00:29:07.197 --> 00:29:08.932 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 552 00:29:09.276 --> 00:29:13.916 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 553 00:29:14.378 --> 00:29:21.344 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 554 00:29:21.344 --> 00:29:23.344 entity other than the speaker or the author. 555 00:29:23.344 --> 00:29:26.833 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 556 00:29:26.833 --> 00:29:26.932 change, 557 00:29:27.114 --> 00:29:29.676 revision and rethinking at any time. 558 00:29:29.973 --> 00:29:32.403 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.