WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.380 --> 00:00:04.520 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.461 --> 00:00:09.141 91 believes it's time to rethink what cautious really means. 3 00:00:09.203 --> 00:00:14.422 With me to explain this is Sumesh Chetty, Portfolio Manager at 91 in Cape Town. 4 00:00:14.586 --> 00:00:17.062 Now, Sumesh, I think it's appropriate that we look at cautious. 5 00:00:17.125 --> 00:00:18.766 Before we rethink cautious, 6 00:00:19.125 --> 00:00:25.781 let's think cautious and what it is in a South African context and what you mean by 7 00:00:25.859 --> 00:00:26.559 cautious. 8 00:00:26.559 --> 00:00:27.250 Please explain. 9 00:00:28.356 --> 00:00:29.257 Okay, thanks, Lindsay. 10 00:00:29.457 --> 00:00:33.800 So what we mean by cautious may not be what everyone else means by cautious. 11 00:00:33.801 --> 00:00:36.441 So let's start in its most basic form. 12 00:00:36.988 --> 00:00:37.808 Think bank accounts. 13 00:00:37.925 --> 00:00:44.660 So an individual might put money with a bank, a first-rand or a standard bank, 14 00:00:44.660 --> 00:00:46.660 whatever the case may be, and somewhere between 2% and 5%, 15 00:00:46.660 --> 00:00:48.629 depending on how long they're willing to lock their money up for. 16 00:00:49.160 --> 00:00:56.019 You could then move into a money market fund from one of the asset managers, like 17 00:00:56.019 --> 00:00:58.019 91%, and you'd earn another 1% to 2%, 18 00:00:58.019 --> 00:01:00.019 maybe even 3%. 19 00:01:00.019 --> 00:01:02.157 And what's become very popular over the last couple of years is, of course, 20 00:01:02.157 --> 00:01:04.157 diversified income funds. 21 00:01:04.157 --> 00:01:07.083 And that adds a little bit of credit risk to your money market type funds. 22 00:01:07.786 --> 00:01:12.145 You can have a little more duration as well and you can get another, let's say, 23 00:01:12.145 --> 00:01:14.145 1% to 2% pickup. 24 00:01:14.145 --> 00:01:18.958 And this has been massively beneficial for investors over the last many years in 25 00:01:18.958 --> 00:01:18.971 South Africa 26 00:01:19.661 --> 00:01:26.114 because interest rates, the South African Reserve Bank has kept interest rates very 27 00:01:26.114 --> 00:01:28.114 high relative to inflation. 28 00:01:28.114 --> 00:01:29.184 And there was almost a freebie to be had, 29 00:01:29.825 --> 00:01:34.922 given that there's been so much concern around the South African environment, our 30 00:01:34.922 --> 00:01:36.922 government. 31 00:01:36.922 --> 00:01:40.587 There's been a risk premium built into our fixed interest instruments. 32 00:01:41.251 --> 00:01:43.962 Now, that would be, let's say, amongst the most conservative of funds. 33 00:01:44.180 --> 00:01:46.555 But of course, also in the South African landscape, 34 00:01:47.415 --> 00:01:51.837 we've had multi-asset low equity funds that are cautious funds. 35 00:01:52.243 --> 00:01:55.930 And those low equity funds can invest up to 40% in equities. 36 00:01:56.668 --> 00:01:59.910 And why have equities historically been very important? 37 00:02:00.313 --> 00:02:07.137 You know, it's the one way to ensure that you outperform inflation over very long 38 00:02:07.137 --> 00:02:09.137 periods of time. 39 00:02:09.137 --> 00:02:11.379 OK, where are we at the moment when it comes to real yields in South Africa? 40 00:02:11.543 --> 00:02:12.246 I'm very simple. 41 00:02:12.262 --> 00:02:16.629 I look at the South African 10-year at, say, 9.6%. 42 00:02:16.630 --> 00:02:21.395 I see inflation, which has just ticked up recently to 3.5%, but was below 3%. 43 00:02:21.473 --> 00:02:23.051 That's pretty healthy, isn't it? 44 00:02:23.442 --> 00:02:24.832 That's phenomenally healthy. 45 00:02:25.272 --> 00:02:25.972 at 6%. 46 00:02:26.193 --> 00:02:33.101 But the problem that we have is the Reserve Bank is targeting inflation at the 47 00:02:33.101 --> 00:02:35.101 bottom end of the range 48 00:02:35.101 --> 00:02:37.101 now. 49 00:02:37.101 --> 00:02:38.863 So we have an inflation targeting range of 3% to 6%. 50 00:02:39.308 --> 00:02:43.324 Historically, we thought about it as the Reserve Bank wants to end up at about 51 00:02:44.011 --> 00:02:47.933 4.5%. But the governor has come out and said, look, they're targeting the bottom 52 00:02:47.933 --> 00:02:49.933 end of the range. 53 00:02:49.933 --> 00:02:51.933 They want to be at 3%. 54 00:02:51.933 --> 00:02:54.027 Now, we can debate for a while how you get to 3%. 55 00:02:54.074 --> 00:03:00.994 percent But I would say the bank is very lucky in that there isn't a lot of demand 56 00:03:00.994 --> 00:03:02.994 pull 57 00:03:02.994 --> 00:03:04.994 inflation in our economy right now. 58 00:03:04.994 --> 00:03:05.982 What I mean by that, the consumer's on its knees. 59 00:03:07.100 --> 00:03:12.685 There's not a lot of demand for product because people, well, you don't have a lot 60 00:03:12.685 --> 00:03:14.685 of money in your wallet right now, 61 00:03:14.685 --> 00:03:15.623 but we're struggling as a society. 62 00:03:16.185 --> 00:03:19.873 And that lack of demand, I think, has kept inflation on the low side. 63 00:03:20.248 --> 00:03:23.623 And we've also benefited from lower oil prices. 64 00:03:24.008 --> 00:03:29.192 and a relatively flattish rant, volatile but flat over the last five years. 65 00:03:29.212 --> 00:03:31.938 And of course, it's strengthened on a year-to-date basis. 66 00:03:31.954 --> 00:03:38.923 And what that means is with lower inflation, if the Reserve Bank thinks that 67 00:03:38.923 --> 00:03:40.923 it's sustainably low, 68 00:03:40.923 --> 00:03:41.180 interest rates are going to be cut. 69 00:03:41.618 --> 00:03:42.946 Interest rates are going to come down. 70 00:03:43.352 --> 00:03:45.915 And you'll probably find they'll come down at the short end. 71 00:03:46.884 --> 00:03:50.634 And they'll also impact the long end of the curve or the 10-year point of the 72 00:03:50.634 --> 00:03:50.990 curve. 73 00:03:50.990 --> 00:03:52.415 And that'll come down as well. 74 00:03:52.962 --> 00:03:59.105 Now, Those higher rates have been massively beneficial to investors because 75 00:03:59.105 --> 00:04:01.105 they're giving you that strong real yield. 76 00:04:01.105 --> 00:04:05.168 But the next 10 years aren't going to look like the previous 10 if you see those 77 00:04:05.168 --> 00:04:07.168 interest rate cuts. 78 00:04:07.168 --> 00:04:11.176 But more importantly, in an environment where those interest rates come down, both 79 00:04:11.176 --> 00:04:13.176 at the short end and the long end, 80 00:04:13.176 --> 00:04:17.738 that decline in interest rates actually makes risk assets, or specifically 81 00:04:17.738 --> 00:04:19.738 equities, 82 00:04:19.738 --> 00:04:20.301 far more attractive to investors. 83 00:04:20.832 --> 00:04:25.377 So you may well find that at a particular level, interest in the 84 00:04:25.716 --> 00:04:28.943 SA equity market increases significantly. 85 00:04:29.521 --> 00:04:30.498 Why is this important? 86 00:04:31.060 --> 00:04:33.482 If you are investing in a, let's say, 87 00:04:33.568 --> 00:04:40.216 traditional cautious product or a cautious product that is only invested in fixed 88 00:04:40.216 --> 00:04:40.245 income 89 00:04:40.326 --> 00:04:45.810 instruments or in money market instruments, you are potentially leaving 90 00:04:45.810 --> 00:04:47.810 returns on the table, 91 00:04:47.810 --> 00:04:48.435 returns that will emerge from the equity market. 92 00:04:49.038 --> 00:04:53.522 When people think about cautious portfolios, they think purely in terms of 93 00:04:53.522 --> 00:04:55.522 capital preservation. 94 00:04:55.522 --> 00:05:00.913 Some investors also think about that inflation protection, and they've 95 00:05:00.913 --> 00:05:02.913 benefited, as I said earlier, from what's happened over the last 10 years, 96 00:05:02.913 --> 00:05:04.093 because a pure money market investment has done both. 97 00:05:04.936 --> 00:05:08.991 But going forward, we're arguing that isn't necessarily going to be the case. 98 00:05:09.444 --> 00:05:13.397 And what matters is not just the fact that you're making a positive real return. 99 00:05:13.897 --> 00:05:16.710 The quantum of the real return matters. 100 00:05:16.851 --> 00:05:18.272 Because if you think about things like... 101 00:05:18.826 --> 00:05:20.288 Medical aid inflation. 102 00:05:20.328 --> 00:05:25.090 Think about people who are retiring and you've got a medical aid that you have to 103 00:05:25.090 --> 00:05:25.452 pay. 104 00:05:26.274 --> 00:05:30.059 Premiums are going up by more than inflation plus one. 105 00:05:30.200 --> 00:05:32.676 They go up in the order of inflation plus three, inflation plus four. 106 00:05:32.801 --> 00:05:35.528 So what you're saying is inflation is not for everybody. 107 00:05:35.575 --> 00:05:39.231 When I say, for example, three and a half percent, no, it's really not. 108 00:05:39.372 --> 00:05:45.090 Medical inflation and food inflation might be outperforming the benchmark of three 109 00:05:45.090 --> 00:05:47.090 and a half percent. 110 00:05:47.090 --> 00:05:49.090 Correct. 111 00:05:49.090 --> 00:05:52.415 So, I mean, someone looking at their basket of groceries, you're not 112 00:05:52.415 --> 00:05:54.415 experiencing three and a half percent. 113 00:05:54.415 --> 00:05:59.364 You know, that basket or the CPI basket is meant to be representative for society as 114 00:05:59.364 --> 00:05:59.580 a whole. 115 00:05:59.580 --> 00:06:03.200 But for any one individual, it doesn't necessarily apply. 116 00:06:03.669 --> 00:06:07.028 And I think people or investors specifically have to be very careful about 117 00:06:07.028 --> 00:06:07.275 that. 118 00:06:07.544 --> 00:06:14.262 So if you are focusing purely on the type of investment that gives you a real 119 00:06:14.262 --> 00:06:16.262 return, 120 00:06:16.262 --> 00:06:18.262 but. 121 00:06:18.262 --> 00:06:19.770 isn't necessarily going to give you the threshold of real return that you require. 122 00:06:20.333 --> 00:06:26.793 You may not be sitting in the type of cautious portfolio that you thought you 123 00:06:26.793 --> 00:06:28.793 were, because capital preservation is one thing, 124 00:06:28.793 --> 00:06:30.301 but you've also got to maintain your real purchasing power. 125 00:06:31.083 --> 00:06:31.783 All right. 126 00:06:31.918 --> 00:06:35.325 So what we're saying here is interest rates might fall in South Africa. 127 00:06:35.481 --> 00:06:37.262 It's highly likely that they will. 128 00:06:37.793 --> 00:06:40.825 And when rates fall, it benefits equities. 129 00:06:40.872 --> 00:06:43.481 It benefits growth assets. 130 00:06:43.822 --> 00:06:44.864 Growth assets, exactly. 131 00:06:45.184 --> 00:06:49.370 I like this sentence that came in a piece that one of your colleagues kindly sent 132 00:06:49.370 --> 00:06:49.749 me. 133 00:06:49.749 --> 00:06:55.073 It says the following, too many conservative portfolios are built for the 134 00:06:55.073 --> 00:06:57.073 last cycle, not the next one. 135 00:06:57.073 --> 00:07:01.854 Do you mean that portfolio managers have this degree of inertia where they hold on 136 00:07:01.854 --> 00:07:03.854 until it's too late and then they, as you say, 137 00:07:03.854 --> 00:07:05.854 leave some profit on the table? 138 00:07:05.854 --> 00:07:06.698 I don't think that, strictly speaking, is the case. 139 00:07:06.745 --> 00:07:10.745 I mean, there might be the odd individual who has that. 140 00:07:11.302 --> 00:07:12.343 backward-looking buyers. 141 00:07:12.383 --> 00:07:17.622 But I'd like to think on the whole, portfolio managers are forward-looking 142 00:07:17.622 --> 00:07:19.622 creatures. 143 00:07:19.622 --> 00:07:22.407 But I think what you might find is that investors anchor to what's worked in the 144 00:07:22.407 --> 00:07:22.647 past. 145 00:07:22.821 --> 00:07:27.087 And only when you see the inflection point do you actually want to make the change. 146 00:07:27.563 --> 00:07:30.563 On average, I would always argue that portfolio managers are forward-looking. 147 00:07:30.860 --> 00:07:34.766 So you've just got to be very careful when you as an investor start thinking about 148 00:07:34.766 --> 00:07:36.766 the environment. 149 00:07:36.766 --> 00:07:41.032 Because you've done exceptionally well in an investment historically, it doesn't 150 00:07:41.032 --> 00:07:43.032 mean it's going to continue 151 00:07:43.032 --> 00:07:45.032 into the future. 152 00:07:45.032 --> 00:07:49.615 And I think we're at a particularly dangerous point right now, because if 153 00:07:49.615 --> 00:07:51.615 interest rates come down, 154 00:07:51.615 --> 00:07:55.967 the investment you are holding is actually still going to continue to do well as 155 00:07:55.967 --> 00:07:57.967 those interest rates come down. 156 00:07:57.967 --> 00:08:02.592 But there's an opportunity cost, because while that's happening, there might be far 157 00:08:02.592 --> 00:08:04.592 greater gains to be made elsewhere. 158 00:08:04.592 --> 00:08:06.592 So you have to weigh that up. 159 00:08:06.592 --> 00:08:10.857 You've got to be very careful, because once those interest rates have fallen, 160 00:08:10.857 --> 00:08:12.857 you've effectively locked into that much lower rate going forward. 161 00:08:12.857 --> 00:08:16.501 and potentially missed out on the initial set of gains that you would have made on 162 00:08:16.501 --> 00:08:18.501 risk assets. 163 00:08:18.501 --> 00:08:23.419 So what we're always arguing is the real nature of equities is critical in a 164 00:08:23.419 --> 00:08:25.419 portfolio where you want to 165 00:08:25.419 --> 00:08:27.419 preserve capital in real terms. 166 00:08:27.419 --> 00:08:30.169 So you've got to look at that 40% allocation that you spoke about and you 167 00:08:30.169 --> 00:08:32.169 should be utilizing that. 168 00:08:32.169 --> 00:08:35.419 Let's look at the strategy of your fund, the cautious managed fund at 91. 169 00:08:35.637 --> 00:08:36.559 Where are you at the moment? 170 00:08:36.622 --> 00:08:37.466 How are you positioned? 171 00:08:38.356 --> 00:08:43.924 So 91 cautious managed fund as i said allows you to invest up to 40% in 172 00:08:43.924 --> 00:08:44.025 equities. 173 00:08:44.344 --> 00:08:48.430 So we're currently holding about 31 to 32% in equities. 174 00:08:49.149 --> 00:08:55.219 But importantly, we're still utilizing those very high real yielding government 175 00:08:55.219 --> 00:08:57.219 bonds and money market 176 00:08:57.219 --> 00:08:59.219 instruments that you mentioned. 177 00:08:59.219 --> 00:09:00.946 So we've got about 34, 35% sitting in government bonds. 178 00:09:01.508 --> 00:09:05.539 We hold some inflationary bonds, about 5% of the portfolio. 179 00:09:06.211 --> 00:09:12.498 We have about 6% sitting in credit and um we probably sitting with around 15% 180 00:09:12.598 --> 00:09:17.359 in cash right now, taking advantage of those real yields while they exist. 181 00:09:17.758 --> 00:09:23.340 But one of the things that obviously on our mind when it comes to equities, 182 00:09:23.340 --> 00:09:25.340 valuations and the potential for growth. 183 00:09:25.340 --> 00:09:25.684 So there are opportunities out there. 184 00:09:26.043 --> 00:09:27.887 You have the ability to take these opportunities. 185 00:09:27.965 --> 00:09:34.902 But forefront on our mind right now is the fact that you're in this environment where 186 00:09:34.902 --> 00:09:36.902 the cost of capital is 187 00:09:36.902 --> 00:09:37.137 potentially decreasing in South Africa. 188 00:09:38.168 --> 00:09:40.012 One of the things you have to be very careful of. 189 00:09:40.434 --> 00:09:45.611 is that people might become incredibly bearish about the environment. 190 00:09:46.338 --> 00:09:51.002 And it's easy to see why when you are not experiencing growth, 191 00:09:51.662 --> 00:09:57.826 when you see what's happening in terms of the decisions that are being made by our 192 00:09:57.826 --> 00:09:57.987 government. 193 00:09:57.987 --> 00:10:03.615 I mean, we're on hopefully a positive trajectory, but there are hard yards ahead 194 00:10:03.615 --> 00:10:03.815 of us. 195 00:10:04.381 --> 00:10:07.897 But what has also swung in South Africa's favor to an extent, 196 00:10:07.944 --> 00:10:12.959 and you see this most acutely when you look at the RAND dollar exchange rate, 197 00:10:13.928 --> 00:10:15.444 is that there's a lot of uncertainty. 198 00:10:16.263 --> 00:10:16.983 around the U.S. 199 00:10:17.584 --> 00:10:24.194 and what President Trump is doing when it comes to tariffs attacking the 200 00:10:24.194 --> 00:10:26.194 independence of the Fed, their central bank. 201 00:10:26.194 --> 00:10:28.194 Sorry to interrupt you. 202 00:10:28.194 --> 00:10:30.194 I was going to say, I'm going to play devil's advocate here. 203 00:10:30.194 --> 00:10:32.194 It all sounds very nice. 204 00:10:32.194 --> 00:10:34.928 The South African Reserve Bank has targeted 3%, and although it's 3.5% at the 205 00:10:34.928 --> 00:10:35.176 moment, 206 00:10:35.616 --> 00:10:41.163 they are a very august institution, and they should be able to manage around 3%. 207 00:10:41.584 --> 00:10:42.475 What if they can't? 208 00:10:42.522 --> 00:10:45.053 What if inflation in the United States and the rest of the world. 209 00:10:45.358 --> 00:10:46.058 starts to go? 210 00:10:46.058 --> 00:10:52.785 What if the Rand dollar exchange rate starts to go from wherever it is 750 to 18 211 00:10:52.785 --> 00:10:54.785 up to 212 00:10:54.785 --> 00:10:54.847 19 to 1950? 213 00:10:55.168 --> 00:11:00.972 What if, and some people are saying this, there's a breakdown in the US bond market? 214 00:11:01.011 --> 00:11:07.285 I mean, 30-year Treasury bond has recently breached 5%. Okay, that's just the long 215 00:11:07.285 --> 00:11:07.625 end. 216 00:11:07.625 --> 00:11:08.660 The short end is not so bad. 217 00:11:08.722 --> 00:11:15.251 But what if these things happen and your projections don't quite work out? 218 00:11:15.491 --> 00:11:20.655 Are you nimble enough to take advantage of whatever is facing you? 219 00:11:21.777 --> 00:11:27.206 Well, to answer your second question first, yes, we're nimble enough to take 220 00:11:27.206 --> 00:11:29.206 advantage of the opportunities as they arise. 221 00:11:29.206 --> 00:11:32.191 But coming back to your first question, if those things were to happen, 222 00:11:32.487 --> 00:11:34.956 it becomes more supportive of the South African environment. 223 00:11:35.284 --> 00:11:39.269 Because remember, if those yields rise in the US, it's because capital is moving 224 00:11:39.269 --> 00:11:41.269 elsewhere. 225 00:11:41.269 --> 00:11:43.800 And capital typically will look for either growth or it will look for valuations. 226 00:11:44.174 --> 00:11:47.657 And the one thing we do have on our side to an extent are valuations, 227 00:11:47.718 --> 00:11:51.479 because we have these elevated risk premiums that sit within South Africa. 228 00:11:51.542 --> 00:11:54.581 So that will work in our favor, even though we don't have growth. 229 00:11:55.042 --> 00:12:01.128 If we were to get growth right, I don't know, five years from now or 10 years from 230 00:12:01.128 --> 00:12:03.128 now, that would potentially be a second tailwind. 231 00:12:03.128 --> 00:12:07.143 But let's ignore growth because we don't think there's going to be any growth in 232 00:12:07.143 --> 00:12:09.143 this country in the next five years, in the next 10 years easily. 233 00:12:09.143 --> 00:12:11.143 So the U.S. 234 00:12:11.143 --> 00:12:12.565 very much plays into your hands if you think about what Governor Lissetra is 235 00:12:12.565 --> 00:12:12.938 doing. 236 00:12:12.938 --> 00:12:18.017 If you see elevated inflation across the world and somehow that actually impacts 237 00:12:18.017 --> 00:12:20.017 South Africa as well, 238 00:12:20.017 --> 00:12:24.884 the real rate that we have, the real rate that the RASAB has imposed on us, as 239 00:12:24.884 --> 00:12:26.884 you've already mentioned, 240 00:12:26.884 --> 00:12:28.884 is sitting close to 4%. 241 00:12:28.884 --> 00:12:32.087 That is an incredibly high real rate that actually impairs the ability for the 242 00:12:32.087 --> 00:12:34.087 economy to grow. 243 00:12:34.087 --> 00:12:36.087 You know, that actually hurts consumers. 244 00:12:36.087 --> 00:12:40.618 So we're already in an environment where Governor Lesetra is sitting with those 245 00:12:40.618 --> 00:12:42.618 high real rates to combat inflation that 246 00:12:42.618 --> 00:12:44.618 just isn't there. 247 00:12:44.618 --> 00:12:46.618 Interesting. 248 00:12:46.618 --> 00:12:48.618 It isn't there at the moment anyway. 249 00:12:48.618 --> 00:12:52.260 So you're optimistic about the future and that sort of doomsday scenario that I sort 250 00:12:52.260 --> 00:12:54.260 of briefly sketched out of things happening elsewhere, 251 00:12:54.260 --> 00:12:56.603 meaning that the South African Reserve Bank doesn't cut rates. 252 00:12:56.924 --> 00:12:59.322 That's just speculation from a commentator. 253 00:13:00.228 --> 00:13:01.088 A hundred percent, 254 00:13:01.150 --> 00:13:08.025 because we don't build portfolios on a top down macro prognostication or any kind of 255 00:13:08.025 --> 00:13:08.288 like. 256 00:13:08.582 --> 00:13:11.986 forward-looking view where we think maybe this happens, maybe that doesn't happen. 257 00:13:12.345 --> 00:13:13.146 It's always bottom-up. 258 00:13:13.607 --> 00:13:15.068 We follow a quality philosophy. 259 00:13:15.669 --> 00:13:17.529 We want predictable cash flows. 260 00:13:17.974 --> 00:13:21.115 We think hard about whether those cash flows are going to be growing in real 261 00:13:21.115 --> 00:13:21.213 terms. 262 00:13:21.591 --> 00:13:27.841 So we aren't in any way advocating for someone to position a portfolio for a 263 00:13:27.841 --> 00:13:29.841 particular outcome. 264 00:13:29.841 --> 00:13:32.232 What we're saying is there are opportunities that are very visible to 265 00:13:32.232 --> 00:13:34.232 investors today. 266 00:13:34.232 --> 00:13:36.513 And what worries us a little bit is investors might... 267 00:13:36.782 --> 00:13:41.504 still be focusing on what happened in the past and believing that will continue to 268 00:13:41.504 --> 00:13:43.504 happen in the future. 269 00:13:43.504 --> 00:13:43.644 Sumesh, thanks so much for your wisdom. 270 00:13:43.785 --> 00:13:47.304 Sumesh Chetty is a portfolio manager at 91 in Cape Town. 271 00:13:49.406 --> 00:13:56.367 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 272 00:13:56.367 --> 00:13:58.367 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 273 00:13:58.367 --> 00:14:00.883 position, or opinion of any other agency, organization, employer, 274 00:14:01.226 --> 00:14:05.070 or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 275 00:14:05.530 --> 00:14:12.496 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 276 00:14:12.496 --> 00:14:14.496 entity other than the speaker or the author. 277 00:14:14.496 --> 00:14:17.985 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 278 00:14:17.985 --> 00:14:18.084 change, 279 00:14:18.266 --> 00:14:20.828 revision and rethinking at any time. 280 00:14:21.125 --> 00:14:23.555 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.