WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:04.546 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.265 --> 00:00:09.147 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:09.147 --> 00:00:09.168 shadow. 4 00:00:09.168 --> 00:00:13.726 And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG 5 00:00:13.726 --> 00:00:15.726 Wealth 6 00:00:15.726 --> 00:00:16.202 Old Oak in Cape Town. 7 00:00:16.780 --> 00:00:20.030 Just imagine, Skulk, you hadn't been in the markets. 8 00:00:20.483 --> 00:00:24.983 You took six, seven months off or something, and you phoned me up and said, 9 00:00:24.983 --> 00:00:26.983 what's happened? 10 00:00:26.983 --> 00:00:28.983 I said, well, let's do a podcast about it. 11 00:00:28.983 --> 00:00:30.983 And I read all the things. 12 00:00:30.983 --> 00:00:32.983 that had occurred. 13 00:00:32.983 --> 00:00:33.369 You hadn't read a newspaper or anything, assume. 14 00:00:33.830 --> 00:00:39.513 And I spoke about tariffs, I spoke about the war between Russia and Ukraine still 15 00:00:39.513 --> 00:00:41.513 going on, 16 00:00:41.513 --> 00:00:46.154 Gaza being obliterated, trade talks all over the place, the Fed and the 17 00:00:46.498 --> 00:00:48.341 White House at loggerheads. 18 00:00:48.826 --> 00:00:55.826 You'd probably say, well, the market would have at best gone sideways, probably come 19 00:00:55.826 --> 00:00:57.826 down maybe, you know, five to 10% 20 00:00:57.826 --> 00:00:59.826 on all that. 21 00:00:59.826 --> 00:01:01.826 Now, here we are, record highs again. 22 00:01:01.826 --> 00:01:03.826 As I speak, actually, record highs on the S&P futures. 23 00:01:03.826 --> 00:01:05.826 Extraordinary, Skulk. 24 00:01:05.826 --> 00:01:07.125 Yeah, that's just exactly my point. 25 00:01:07.726 --> 00:01:12.492 If you put me in some capsule, time capsule, took me out, told me all those 26 00:01:12.492 --> 00:01:14.492 things, and then you said, 27 00:01:14.492 --> 00:01:17.515 and the JSE has closed over 102,000 points. 28 00:01:17.516 --> 00:01:18.531 Can you believe it? 29 00:01:19.422 --> 00:01:25.562 NASDAQ is nearing 22,000 points, and the S&P 500, 6,500 points. 30 00:01:25.932 --> 00:01:28.575 I would have said you are berserk. 31 00:01:29.255 --> 00:01:35.425 There's absolutely no way that the one thing you told me will lead to the other 32 00:01:35.425 --> 00:01:37.425 thing you told me. 33 00:01:37.425 --> 00:01:39.425 But yet, here we are. 34 00:01:39.425 --> 00:01:41.425 But it's an interesting scenario. 35 00:01:41.425 --> 00:01:43.995 I mean, you know that we follow this, the CME Fed tool. 36 00:01:44.808 --> 00:01:47.933 Yes, the CME being the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. 37 00:01:48.480 --> 00:01:49.180 That's it. 38 00:01:49.180 --> 00:01:50.011 That's it. 39 00:01:50.433 --> 00:01:55.308 It's basically trading the probabilities of a Fed cut. 40 00:01:55.876 --> 00:02:01.176 And, you know, for the listeners that's been in that time capsule that Lindsay 41 00:02:01.176 --> 00:02:03.176 just described, 42 00:02:03.176 --> 00:02:05.957 if you were in this time capsule for the past year, I've got a big surprise. 43 00:02:05.958 --> 00:02:12.723 Because last year, this time around, they were forecasting six rate cuts until the 44 00:02:12.723 --> 00:02:14.723 end of 2025. 45 00:02:14.723 --> 00:02:17.582 We went into 2025 with no cuts yet. 46 00:02:17.895 --> 00:02:21.817 And they said, well, we're going to have at least four cuts. 47 00:02:22.508 --> 00:02:27.413 And here we're sitting with three Fed meetings left for the year, and we haven't 48 00:02:27.413 --> 00:02:29.413 seen one. 49 00:02:29.413 --> 00:02:33.643 But, I mean, I think a little bit more than a week ago, I think when the last 50 00:02:34.237 --> 00:02:37.463 Fed meeting kept the rates unchanged, I think it was about two weeks ago, 51 00:02:38.284 --> 00:02:42.909 that CME probability tool had the rate cut only at 60%. 52 00:02:43.706 --> 00:02:48.737 Now, it's high, but it's only trading at 60% just after the cut. 53 00:02:49.127 --> 00:02:50.831 That moved up to... 54 00:02:51.160 --> 00:02:53.522 to end of last week to about 80, 81%. 55 00:02:54.042 --> 00:02:58.429 And today that thing has now gone to 99.9%. 56 00:02:58.909 --> 00:03:01.526 So I think that's the one point. 57 00:03:01.550 --> 00:03:02.250 I think, you know, 58 00:03:02.268 --> 00:03:09.198 we're now looking at the market that's telling us we will most probably see the 59 00:03:09.245 --> 00:03:09.945 rate cut. 60 00:03:09.945 --> 00:03:13.495 And here's the, I think, the interesting one, Lindsay. 61 00:03:13.979 --> 00:03:14.745 What do you think? 62 00:03:14.776 --> 00:03:19.229 I mean, I know you're going to ask me the question, but I'm going to throw it at you 63 00:03:19.229 --> 00:03:21.229 before I answer this. 64 00:03:21.229 --> 00:03:23.229 Okay. 65 00:03:23.229 --> 00:03:25.531 Do you see them lowering it a quarter of a percent or half a percent? 66 00:03:26.012 --> 00:03:32.598 It depends who goes into the hot seat and also who is going to 67 00:03:32.637 --> 00:03:34.504 replace the vice chair. 68 00:03:34.863 --> 00:03:39.246 Was the woman that resigned a vice chair of the Fed, Scalp? 69 00:03:39.465 --> 00:03:40.715 I think she was, wasn't she? 70 00:03:43.434 --> 00:03:44.918 I can't say, Lindsay. 71 00:03:44.919 --> 00:03:45.652 I'm not 100% sure. 72 00:03:45.996 --> 00:03:48.449 Anyway, they're putting up various candidates. 73 00:03:49.068 --> 00:03:55.856 for the replacement it depends on that and depends how the mood of the room of the 74 00:03:55.856 --> 00:03:57.856 fomc has has changed but 75 00:03:57.856 --> 00:04:03.446 and has allowed to to change because if there is influence from the white house 76 00:04:03.446 --> 00:04:05.446 then we're in big trouble because we're going to get rate 77 00:04:05.446 --> 00:04:10.344 cut after rate cut and as you quite rightly say maybe a half a percent in 78 00:04:10.344 --> 00:04:12.344 order to play catch up because they call 79 00:04:12.344 --> 00:04:15.610 trump calls what's his name jay powell too late powell so 80 00:04:16.584 --> 00:04:19.784 So call them a few other things as well, just as a matter of interest. 81 00:04:19.844 --> 00:04:23.507 But yeah, that was most probably the kindest ones of them all. 82 00:04:24.385 --> 00:04:30.671 I think that 50 basis points would be, would firstly delight the market, then 83 00:04:30.671 --> 00:04:32.671 shock the market. 84 00:04:32.671 --> 00:04:33.225 And everyone would say, no, this is not good. 85 00:04:33.553 --> 00:04:38.428 And it would have the opposite effect and markets would come down after an initial 86 00:04:38.428 --> 00:04:40.428 rally. 87 00:04:40.428 --> 00:04:45.257 But I think what they'll do is say, OK, half a percent now and the next meeting, 88 00:04:45.257 --> 00:04:47.257 very good chance, another half a percent. 89 00:04:47.257 --> 00:04:48.755 because inflation is only 2.7%, etc., etc. 90 00:04:49.415 --> 00:04:52.417 And that will come from the mouth of Trump, essentially. 91 00:04:54.904 --> 00:04:55.604 That's my thought, yeah. 92 00:04:55.604 --> 00:04:59.547 Yeah, so that is a theory, and I think it's sort of a if you put on probabilities 93 00:04:59.547 --> 00:05:01.547 on those, 94 00:05:01.547 --> 00:05:02.609 it's most probably go towards the lower side. 95 00:05:02.648 --> 00:05:04.430 But I wouldn't disregard it. 96 00:05:04.515 --> 00:05:09.820 I wouldn't throw it out of the window in totality because you just mentioned it. 97 00:05:09.821 --> 00:05:13.383 I mean, inflation, it's still trading 2.7%. 98 00:05:13.398 --> 00:05:18.851 So their inflation clearly, or the official inflation numbers, clearly has 99 00:05:18.851 --> 00:05:20.851 been under control. 100 00:05:20.930 --> 00:05:22.586 And we know what Trump's won. 101 00:05:22.711 --> 00:05:23.411 Trump. 102 00:05:23.411 --> 00:05:30.057 from point one employee interest rates to come down and come down in quite a bit so 103 00:05:30.057 --> 00:05:32.057 so here's where i'm going with this i mean we've 104 00:05:32.057 --> 00:05:37.085 just come out of out of a well we're not out of it yet uh still 48 companies to 105 00:05:37.085 --> 00:05:39.085 report uh on the s p 500 106 00:05:39.085 --> 00:05:43.593 so that's more or less 10 so so we've got 90 of the companies that's that's 107 00:05:43.593 --> 00:05:45.593 supported this 108 00:05:45.593 --> 00:05:47.593 time around and 109 00:05:47.593 --> 00:05:51.983 and when you look at the the beats as we sit year the companies that beat over 80 110 00:05:51.983 --> 00:05:53.983 so this is 111 00:05:53.983 --> 00:05:57.316 this is a And just to explain that, beat expectations from various analysts. 112 00:05:57.317 --> 00:06:03.398 So there'll be a group of people that sit down and say, I think NVIDIA's earnings 113 00:06:03.398 --> 00:06:05.398 will be this, this, this. 114 00:06:05.398 --> 00:06:07.398 And they take an average of that. 115 00:06:07.398 --> 00:06:09.398 And if it beats it, that's a beat. 116 00:06:09.398 --> 00:06:09.468 It's not an exact science, though, is it? 117 00:06:09.499 --> 00:06:11.562 And I think we've had a chat about this before, Skulk. 118 00:06:12.546 --> 00:06:14.031 It's actually quite inaccurate. 119 00:06:14.171 --> 00:06:20.593 You know, for the listeners out there now frantically trying to find any form of 120 00:06:20.593 --> 00:06:22.593 target prices or consensus. 121 00:06:22.593 --> 00:06:27.906 They're actually quite inaccurate, but what it does give you is when the market 122 00:06:27.906 --> 00:06:29.906 beat, 123 00:06:29.906 --> 00:06:31.371 then it is upbeat. 124 00:06:31.707 --> 00:06:35.074 The market do tend to run a bit further. 125 00:06:35.113 --> 00:06:39.356 Now, every month I do what I call the uptick in markets. 126 00:06:39.402 --> 00:06:42.684 I run through all these different valuations. 127 00:06:43.856 --> 00:06:50.184 And like many other investment specialists, I do think that the… 128 00:06:50.790 --> 00:06:57.655 the u.s market is totally totally overvalued i think it's overheated it's 129 00:06:57.655 --> 00:06:59.655 it's really trading at dangerous 130 00:06:59.655 --> 00:07:04.245 levels um but there is a big but now you need to ask yourself the question what 131 00:07:04.245 --> 00:07:06.245 will be the 132 00:07:06.245 --> 00:07:06.894 catalyst the 133 00:07:06.925 --> 00:07:13.894 catalyst for for i let's look at so many possibilities skulkin so many that we 134 00:07:13.894 --> 00:07:15.894 don't even know about that will just come 135 00:07:15.894 --> 00:07:20.159 from nowhere and we'll say oh my goodness we thought it would be this we thought it 136 00:07:20.159 --> 00:07:22.159 would be test it's something completely different 137 00:07:22.159 --> 00:07:24.159 I wonder what it might be. 138 00:07:24.159 --> 00:07:26.159 What are your thoughts? 139 00:07:26.159 --> 00:07:28.159 That's it. 140 00:07:28.159 --> 00:07:30.159 That's what you call a black swan. 141 00:07:30.159 --> 00:07:32.159 But let's take the most obvious ones. 142 00:07:32.159 --> 00:07:33.260 I mean, we've mentioned the Russia, Ukraine. 143 00:07:33.401 --> 00:07:35.502 We've talked about Israel, Gaza. 144 00:07:35.503 --> 00:07:38.159 We've talked about a few of these geopolitical unrest. 145 00:07:38.643 --> 00:07:43.987 But I mean, for the past, let's call it a few weeks, things have been fairly quiet. 146 00:07:44.034 --> 00:07:49.830 I mean, these ceasefires, sort of tongue in the cheek, has been holding up. 147 00:07:50.142 --> 00:07:56.247 you know fairly well so so let's say trump's negotiation managed to keep things 148 00:07:56.950 --> 00:08:03.774 fairly quiet again for the next few few weeks or months so so that's that's the 149 00:08:03.774 --> 00:08:05.774 one that i 150 00:08:05.774 --> 00:08:06.977 think will be a catalyst if you see a break suddenly 151 00:08:06.993 --> 00:08:13.852 there's this there's some unrest again a big political event i mean i'm not going 152 00:08:13.852 --> 00:08:15.852 to call things like 153 00:08:15.852 --> 00:08:19.994 uh uh nuclear or any of those just a big event that could be a massive, 154 00:08:20.075 --> 00:08:25.777 massive break in the market because then suddenly the market will say the valuation 155 00:08:25.777 --> 00:08:27.777 is just crazy. 156 00:08:27.777 --> 00:08:29.374 And with this big event, we could have a massive, massive implosion. 157 00:08:29.398 --> 00:08:32.781 But things seem to be quiet. 158 00:08:33.398 --> 00:08:39.695 You know what makes me worried is that every day says, yeah, it's another day, 159 00:08:39.695 --> 00:08:41.695 it's another S&P high, 160 00:08:41.695 --> 00:08:44.538 and there's no one sounding any warnings, no red flags or anything. 161 00:08:44.585 --> 00:08:46.648 They're just sort of accepting that it's going up. 162 00:08:46.882 --> 00:08:50.404 because it's going up and that will happen in perpetuity. 163 00:08:50.725 --> 00:08:51.545 It's not going to. 164 00:08:51.647 --> 00:08:52.347 We know that. 165 00:08:52.947 --> 00:08:59.592 Immediately you become complacent and sanguine about the market is when it comes 166 00:08:59.592 --> 00:09:01.592 and kicks you in the teeth. 167 00:09:01.592 --> 00:09:05.967 The market usually don't crash when everybody calls it overheated. 168 00:09:07.748 --> 00:09:13.795 It's when people start finding excuses why it's not overheated anymore, when it is, 169 00:09:13.795 --> 00:09:15.795 in our fact. 170 00:09:15.795 --> 00:09:17.795 So let's... 171 00:09:17.795 --> 00:09:19.795 continue this theory. 172 00:09:19.795 --> 00:09:22.991 So let's say there's no geopolitical crack for the next few months. 173 00:09:24.171 --> 00:09:30.804 Then the second catalyst will most probably be a disappointment in either 174 00:09:31.319 --> 00:09:34.312 economic data or company data. 175 00:09:34.359 --> 00:09:38.609 Let's take the second one first because we've already mentioned the beats. 176 00:09:39.796 --> 00:09:40.624 And we've got 10%. 177 00:09:40.655 --> 00:09:44.296 We've got 48 companies left to report on the S&P 500. 178 00:09:44.780 --> 00:09:46.796 And then It's going to be done. 179 00:09:47.016 --> 00:09:52.127 Next three months, there's not going to be a hell of a lot of news coming out of any 180 00:09:52.127 --> 00:09:54.127 of these 500 companies. 181 00:09:54.127 --> 00:09:56.127 It's going to be quiet. 182 00:09:56.127 --> 00:09:58.127 It's going to be. 183 00:09:58.127 --> 00:10:00.127 It's going to be business as usual. 184 00:10:00.127 --> 00:10:04.471 So that will take us most probably onto another three months, or let's call it 185 00:10:04.471 --> 00:10:06.471 October, November. 186 00:10:06.471 --> 00:10:08.330 Then we will go into quarter three results. 187 00:10:08.776 --> 00:10:10.018 And you need to ask yourself, 188 00:10:11.362 --> 00:10:16.159 if the status quo is currently just kept unchanged, 189 00:10:16.909 --> 00:10:21.815 and we do see that interest rate cut in a month's time. 190 00:10:22.945 --> 00:10:24.567 Let's not talk about the half a percent. 191 00:10:24.568 --> 00:10:25.889 We just talk about a quarter of a percent. 192 00:10:26.809 --> 00:10:33.596 One would expect that equities in general globally would still react positively on 193 00:10:33.596 --> 00:10:34.015 the 194 00:10:34.015 --> 00:10:37.237 news that now interest rates have been cut by a quarter of a percent. 195 00:10:37.541 --> 00:10:43.463 And we will most probably see another quarter of a percent at the next meeting, 196 00:10:43.464 --> 00:10:45.401 which will be the 29th of October. 197 00:10:46.166 --> 00:10:51.807 So there will be no, let's call it, disappointment in the coming weeks. 198 00:10:51.808 --> 00:10:52.541 they will actually be... 199 00:10:52.701 --> 00:10:59.349 good news upon good news and one can expect that there won't be a major crack 200 00:10:59.349 --> 00:11:01.349 in the earnings um this good 201 00:11:01.349 --> 00:11:06.911 reporting for for the quarter three that will bring us to the economic data well 202 00:11:06.911 --> 00:11:08.911 imf just just came 203 00:11:08.911 --> 00:11:13.474 out with a report and they adjusted the the economic growth for the globe upwards 204 00:11:13.927 --> 00:11:19.020 yes in africa we kept unchanged at one percent but in general most of the these 205 00:11:19.020 --> 00:11:21.020 this is called 206 00:11:21.020 --> 00:11:25.662 developed countries, US included, were adjusted positively upwards. 207 00:11:26.104 --> 00:11:32.627 So you would need to ask yourself if inflation remains at 2.7%, 208 00:11:32.674 --> 00:11:35.768 which is done now, and we start seeing rate cuts, 209 00:11:36.221 --> 00:11:41.080 that should be positive for the economy or at least for the forecast for the economy. 210 00:11:41.643 --> 00:11:44.596 So there won't be any, I would say major, major... 211 00:11:44.873 --> 00:11:47.095 cracks in the economic data that's going to be. 212 00:11:47.136 --> 00:11:50.839 I can tell you what's going to happen with economic data, 213 00:11:51.101 --> 00:11:56.726 and that is that it is going to be under the influence of Trump and the White 214 00:11:56.726 --> 00:11:56.825 House. 215 00:11:57.226 --> 00:12:02.836 And I think what is going to happen is that really big, smart investors will look 216 00:12:02.836 --> 00:12:04.836 at this and say, 217 00:12:04.836 --> 00:12:06.336 this is leaning now even more towards a dictatorship. 218 00:12:06.836 --> 00:12:12.726 The dictatorship first came with things like, for example, putting the army on the 219 00:12:12.726 --> 00:12:14.726 streets of Washington. 220 00:12:14.726 --> 00:12:16.726 D.C. 221 00:12:16.726 --> 00:12:18.726 and threatened to do that in all other cities. 222 00:12:18.726 --> 00:12:20.726 This is a dictatorship. 223 00:12:20.726 --> 00:12:21.427 And then it went on with him replacing people, the president, that is, 224 00:12:21.786 --> 00:12:27.435 with people that he likes rather than the people that are already there who he 225 00:12:27.435 --> 00:12:29.435 doesn't like. 226 00:12:29.435 --> 00:12:30.935 And so we all knew that a dictatorship was in its infancy. 227 00:12:31.481 --> 00:12:38.138 But I think what they'll say is if the economic data starts to be massaged by the 228 00:12:38.138 --> 00:12:40.138 White House, they will say, 229 00:12:40.138 --> 00:12:42.138 that's it. 230 00:12:42.138 --> 00:12:44.138 I'm not going into the US markets because... 231 00:12:44.138 --> 00:12:44.260 I am afraid of what is going on. 232 00:12:44.619 --> 00:12:49.787 And the first one that will crack, despite the fact that interest rates are coming 233 00:12:49.787 --> 00:12:51.787 down, will be the bond market. 234 00:12:51.787 --> 00:12:53.709 And if the bond market starts to go, then the equity market will follow. 235 00:12:53.990 --> 00:12:57.014 That's my logical catalyst. 236 00:12:57.334 --> 00:13:04.201 My illogical catalyst, my black swan, is that there will be, and you can choose 237 00:13:04.201 --> 00:13:06.201 yours as well in a moment. 238 00:13:06.201 --> 00:13:06.686 I'd be interested to see what you think your black swan is. 239 00:13:07.483 --> 00:13:09.029 I think it will be Trump's health. 240 00:13:09.170 --> 00:13:09.889 I think Trump. 241 00:13:10.205 --> 00:13:14.889 Will, I don't think he will, I say he could suffer a health scare. 242 00:13:14.890 --> 00:13:16.253 It's already been spoken about. 243 00:13:16.573 --> 00:13:18.151 He's grossly overweight. 244 00:13:18.213 --> 00:13:20.612 He's not moving as well as he used to. 245 00:13:21.057 --> 00:13:24.878 He's fatter than he was when he came to power in January. 246 00:13:25.518 --> 00:13:31.987 And he could either be hospitalised for a long time because of a serious health 247 00:13:31.987 --> 00:13:33.987 issue, 248 00:13:33.987 --> 00:13:34.721 or he may, heaven forbid, die. 249 00:13:34.768 --> 00:13:38.128 I mean, I don't like him, but I don't want him, I don't wish him any ill. 250 00:13:38.613 --> 00:13:42.536 That's my black swan, Trump's health. 251 00:13:42.837 --> 00:13:44.017 That's two great ones. 252 00:13:44.259 --> 00:13:50.826 I mean, that is really, really, I mean, if something like that should happen, yeah, 253 00:13:50.826 --> 00:13:52.826 that's major. 254 00:13:52.826 --> 00:13:53.404 I mean, that's like, 255 00:13:54.247 --> 00:14:00.935 I've often said my biggest worry is not the quality of the business within 256 00:14:00.982 --> 00:14:02.294 Berkshire, either way, it's just... 257 00:14:02.733 --> 00:14:07.840 Having such a well-known CEO in Warren Buffett that's already 90 years old. 258 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:15.144 But I mean, even that, I think if something should happen to Warren Buffett, 259 00:14:15.582 --> 00:14:22.410 I think the company has been settled and put together in such a manner that it 260 00:14:22.410 --> 00:14:24.410 shouldn't have a massive effect. 261 00:14:24.410 --> 00:14:26.222 But I think if something should happen to Trump, 262 00:14:26.254 --> 00:14:30.754 that he can't continue his presidency. 263 00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:32.219 Wow. 264 00:14:32.530 --> 00:14:35.593 And they bring in the hillbilly J.D. Vance. 265 00:14:36.294 --> 00:14:36.994 Goodness me. 266 00:14:37.493 --> 00:14:38.735 All hell will break loose. 267 00:14:39.938 --> 00:14:42.036 No, I think that's it. 268 00:14:42.083 --> 00:14:43.864 That will most probably be the biggest crash. 269 00:14:44.098 --> 00:14:45.942 But, I mean, that's the point that I'm making. 270 00:14:45.981 --> 00:14:49.786 So we're sitting on the one side that, you know, 271 00:14:51.848 --> 00:14:58.848 where we're going with this is this is such a volatile point on the US market. 272 00:14:58.942 --> 00:15:00.536 It's extremely expensive. 273 00:15:01.097 --> 00:15:02.520 It's trading at massive valuations. 274 00:15:02.539 --> 00:15:09.469 These companies that's produced, I mean, there's this very beautiful graph where 275 00:15:09.469 --> 00:15:11.469 they look at the earnings growth. 276 00:15:11.469 --> 00:15:16.877 um on on the magnet back seven and the earnings growth on the remaining 493 277 00:15:16.877 --> 00:15:18.877 stocks 278 00:15:18.877 --> 00:15:23.506 and actually the earnings growth you know still it's still about i would say two 279 00:15:23.506 --> 00:15:25.506 three quarters back 280 00:15:25.506 --> 00:15:30.412 it was most cases about double double the earnings growth you know the the s p has 281 00:15:30.412 --> 00:15:30.566 grown 282 00:15:30.756 --> 00:15:32.443 hence the fact why they're trading at these 283 00:15:33.225 --> 00:15:37.834 exuberant um exuberant valuations i mean nvidia eight 284 00:15:37.969 --> 00:15:44.636 percent of the total s p 500 this is this is the largest weight that any one company 285 00:15:44.636 --> 00:15:46.636 has has 286 00:15:46.636 --> 00:15:51.503 had in in the s p 500 ever ever there's never been a company that carried in an 287 00:15:51.503 --> 00:15:53.503 heavier weight 288 00:15:53.503 --> 00:15:57.190 and there's a few of these companies but 80 and we're not talking about you know 289 00:15:57.190 --> 00:15:59.190 the the 290 00:15:59.190 --> 00:16:03.909 the times for example when uh mass pass was such a massive something something 291 00:16:03.909 --> 00:16:05.909 like 20 of the jsc at 292 00:16:05.909 --> 00:16:06.581 one point if you know better than I do. 293 00:16:07.073 --> 00:16:10.216 But we're not talking about a relatively small market like the JSE. 294 00:16:10.597 --> 00:16:13.560 We're talking about the S&P 500, for goodness sake. 295 00:16:14.439 --> 00:16:15.139 Exactly. 296 00:16:16.419 --> 00:16:20.888 It is crazy to think that, I mean, the S&P 500, 297 00:16:20.904 --> 00:16:24.372 and let's continue with that. 298 00:16:25.091 --> 00:16:32.091 So if you look at the weight of the 299 00:16:32.732 --> 00:16:36.607 MSCI world within the... 300 00:16:37.494 --> 00:16:40.697 S&P 500 within the MSCI world. 301 00:16:42.080 --> 00:16:46.025 Very quickly, I want to get the updated because I know it's increased as well. 302 00:16:46.666 --> 00:16:50.205 Currently, if you look at it, it's 72.1%. 303 00:16:50.228 --> 00:16:52.486 So if you invest in a, 304 00:16:53.634 --> 00:16:59.853 let's call it any tracker or a company that follows the MSCI world index, 305 00:17:00.509 --> 00:17:05.869 you're pretty much 72% invested in the S&P 500. 306 00:17:06.469 --> 00:17:10.873 That weight is 8% pretty much just in one company. 307 00:17:10.974 --> 00:17:13.517 8% of that index is one company in the video. 308 00:17:13.635 --> 00:17:14.335 So it's crazy. 309 00:17:14.580 --> 00:17:18.744 But I mean, where I'm going with this, if you look at the continue, that graph, 310 00:17:19.619 --> 00:17:25.994 it's now got to a point where the growth of these companies still outperformed the 311 00:17:25.994 --> 00:17:27.994 rest of the S&P 312 00:17:27.994 --> 00:17:29.916 500, but not to these margins we've seen a few quarters back. 313 00:17:30.291 --> 00:17:31.760 But the forecast looking... 314 00:17:32.485 --> 00:17:36.649 I think it's looking at four quarters or eight quarters, two years. 315 00:17:37.508 --> 00:17:44.399 It's showing you that it's going to taper down to pretty much the same earnings 316 00:17:44.399 --> 00:17:46.399 growth to the 317 00:17:46.399 --> 00:17:48.399 rest of the S&P 500. 318 00:17:48.399 --> 00:17:51.641 Yet these companies are trading at multiples more than double compared to the 319 00:17:51.641 --> 00:17:51.952 market. 320 00:17:51.952 --> 00:17:56.188 So if any of those things that you mentioned, or I mentioned, 321 00:17:56.189 --> 00:18:01.516 is a geopolitical or misses in consensus, 322 00:18:02.137 --> 00:18:07.603 This market could really, I mean, I'm talking about this market, the US market 323 00:18:07.603 --> 00:18:09.603 could really trace, 324 00:18:09.603 --> 00:18:10.744 see one of the biggest corrections that it's seen in history. 325 00:18:10.947 --> 00:18:12.884 Okay, so let's hope it doesn't scale. 326 00:18:13.845 --> 00:18:16.728 We're speculating, but it's educated speculation. 327 00:18:16.775 --> 00:18:19.080 I'm very pleased with what we've come up with. 328 00:18:19.330 --> 00:18:24.001 I mean, it'll probably be something completely different, but at least we've 329 00:18:24.001 --> 00:18:26.001 given it a stab. 330 00:18:26.001 --> 00:18:27.564 Meanwhile, we have to look at what really drives the markets, and that's companies. 331 00:18:27.658 --> 00:18:30.548 Anything on the Stock Exchange News Service today? 332 00:18:30.969 --> 00:18:34.674 Any announcements from JSC-listed companies, please, of note? 333 00:18:35.474 --> 00:18:36.256 We had a big day. 334 00:18:36.435 --> 00:18:37.674 I mean, a big, big day. 335 00:18:38.635 --> 00:18:40.861 I'm going to run through them very, very quickly because 336 00:18:41.260 --> 00:18:48.228 I think we've took a lot of time sitting in an environment where and I just want to 337 00:18:48.228 --> 00:18:50.228 continue to say I'm not thinking the market's going to crash. 338 00:18:50.228 --> 00:18:52.994 I actually think that be careful just selling out now over the short-term 339 00:18:52.994 --> 00:18:54.994 period, all this good news, 340 00:18:54.994 --> 00:18:58.322 because the thing about a balloon is it doesn't burst when you just blow it up. 341 00:18:58.533 --> 00:19:04.999 and it becomes a bubble it eventually blows that that final we just have that 342 00:19:04.999 --> 00:19:06.999 final blow and then it goes like so 343 00:19:06.999 --> 00:19:12.128 but anyway market was i mean we had us at a big time i mean i'm going to start with 344 00:19:12.128 --> 00:19:14.128 with the company that's that's been 345 00:19:14.128 --> 00:19:18.777 sort of um in the news for the past four or five years not for the right reasons i 346 00:19:18.777 --> 00:19:20.777 mean been under under 347 00:19:20.777 --> 00:19:23.370 continued uh distress i mean yeah Cecil. 348 00:19:23.402 --> 00:19:25.042 That's the top of the leaderboard, yes. 349 00:19:25.980 --> 00:19:26.839 Yes, yes. 350 00:19:26.855 --> 00:19:27.555 I mean, Cecil. 351 00:19:28.005 --> 00:19:30.747 So for the past, let's call it a few weeks, 352 00:19:30.767 --> 00:19:36.658 it's gone from a company to really gone from bad to worse. 353 00:19:36.876 --> 00:19:42.501 I think it started off the year around about the 70-odd levels, and then it went 354 00:19:42.501 --> 00:19:44.501 down to 50-odd levels. 355 00:19:44.501 --> 00:19:48.626 You know, today it's back to just shy of that 100-rand mark, 97.90. 356 00:19:48.642 --> 00:19:50.314 It's up 4% for the day. 357 00:19:51.001 --> 00:19:53.517 And that's on the back on a very solid trading statement. 358 00:19:53.548 --> 00:19:54.329 I mean, yes. 359 00:19:54.408 --> 00:19:58.439 I mean, there's a lot of… Funders out there will tell me, oh man, Skark, you're 360 00:19:58.439 --> 00:20:00.439 going to call this? 361 00:20:00.439 --> 00:20:02.439 You know, great. 362 00:20:02.439 --> 00:20:04.439 There were so many once-offs. 363 00:20:04.439 --> 00:20:08.051 I mean, we had the Transnet payment, the once-off payment of $4.3 billion. 364 00:20:08.129 --> 00:20:09.613 That's not going to repeat itself. 365 00:20:09.988 --> 00:20:12.770 There was a few other once-offs as well, bigger once-offs. 366 00:20:13.176 --> 00:20:13.876 That doesn't matter. 367 00:20:13.876 --> 00:20:19.613 I mean, we know that suddenly momentum is getting back into this company. 368 00:20:19.707 --> 00:20:20.863 You've mentioned it many times. 369 00:20:21.098 --> 00:20:22.816 You could see the company's former base. 370 00:20:23.153 --> 00:20:29.268 very similar to the likes of some of these pgms And they've mentioned in their 371 00:20:29.268 --> 00:20:31.268 trading statement today, 372 00:20:31.268 --> 00:20:32.671 they've had higher average chemical basket prices. 373 00:20:32.710 --> 00:20:35.186 So they've got more for the chemicals. 374 00:20:35.593 --> 00:20:39.093 And they had some solid cost controls, which helped them now. 375 00:20:39.608 --> 00:20:41.429 It's a bit of a problem. 376 00:20:41.530 --> 00:20:42.515 You're talking about chemicals. 377 00:20:42.554 --> 00:20:47.710 I don't know how big the share of the earnings cake is attributed to chemicals. 378 00:20:47.772 --> 00:20:51.757 But the one thing you've got to worry about, I don't like the look of crude oil. 379 00:20:52.132 --> 00:20:53.054 It looks horrible. 380 00:20:53.397 --> 00:20:56.179 I think it can come down to $40 to $50 a barrel. 381 00:20:56.636 --> 00:20:58.796 and also the RAND being so strong. 382 00:20:59.157 --> 00:21:02.858 Isn't that a massive, massive negative for Sassl? 383 00:21:04.722 --> 00:21:05.659 It's a massive risk. 384 00:21:07.198 --> 00:21:09.917 You need to get the oil price to go down to those levels. 385 00:21:10.362 --> 00:21:11.062 Naturally that. 386 00:21:11.183 --> 00:21:16.925 Okay, your question, I mean, I don't have the exact figures, but as I could 387 00:21:16.925 --> 00:21:18.925 recollect, 388 00:21:18.925 --> 00:21:20.925 I think it's about 48. 389 00:21:20.925 --> 00:21:22.925 It's just below. 390 00:21:22.925 --> 00:21:24.925 It's between 42 or 48%. 391 00:21:24.925 --> 00:21:26.925 It's one of those two. 392 00:21:26.925 --> 00:21:28.925 That's what chemicals actually makes up. 393 00:21:28.925 --> 00:21:31.770 for for uh for sassl so it's quite a large large contributor um and you know on your 394 00:21:31.770 --> 00:21:33.770 oil point you're 395 00:21:33.770 --> 00:21:38.457 100 right they're currently sitting with the cost structure of about 58 on the oil 396 00:21:38.457 --> 00:21:40.457 side of about 58 dollars per 397 00:21:40.457 --> 00:21:42.457 barrel um which 398 00:21:42.457 --> 00:21:46.629 is high i mean the the the ceo did mention that they they aim as by 399 00:21:46.645 --> 00:21:53.145 2027 or 2028 is to reduce that to fifty dollars per per share but be that's my i 400 00:21:53.145 --> 00:21:53.392 mean 40 401 00:21:53.536 --> 00:21:59.242 $40, which you just mentioned, that will be a very, very big ball and chain for 402 00:21:59.242 --> 00:21:59.680 them. 403 00:21:59.680 --> 00:22:02.387 And then we'll most probably see them retrace to the levels that we've seen 404 00:22:02.387 --> 00:22:02.462 earlier. 405 00:22:02.684 --> 00:22:05.488 Okay, that's Sasol, because we've got to move on to a couple of others. 406 00:22:06.285 --> 00:22:12.934 Just give us some other companies on the JSC outside of Sasol, obviously, but some 407 00:22:12.934 --> 00:22:14.934 big ones, if you would, 408 00:22:14.934 --> 00:22:16.934 if they have them. 409 00:22:16.934 --> 00:22:19.699 I'm just going to end off with Sasol, because the EPS, which I mentioned, 410 00:22:19.699 --> 00:22:21.699 that's, I think, a very important point. 411 00:22:21.699 --> 00:22:23.699 But the NXP share... 412 00:22:23.699 --> 00:22:25.699 that they mentioned in the trading outlook. 413 00:22:25.699 --> 00:22:27.699 It's going to be between 7 rand and 12. 414 00:22:27.699 --> 00:22:29.699 I'm not going to talk about the EPS because there's so many one-sops. 415 00:22:29.699 --> 00:22:31.258 But the earnings per share is 7 rand to 12 rand per share. 416 00:22:31.259 --> 00:22:35.695 It's a company that's still trading at 98 rand. 417 00:22:35.938 --> 00:22:40.399 So we're talking about a company now that's going to be trading at multiples of 418 00:22:40.399 --> 00:22:42.399 two or three times. 419 00:22:42.399 --> 00:22:43.555 So this is looking good. 420 00:22:44.227 --> 00:22:44.927 NetBank. 421 00:22:44.964 --> 00:22:47.187 NetBank had a voluntary announcement today. 422 00:22:47.566 --> 00:22:48.469 I saw that. 423 00:22:48.648 --> 00:22:53.230 Yes, wasn't it something to do with wasn't it an acquisition or am I wrong? 424 00:22:53.231 --> 00:22:55.316 Yeah, yeah. 425 00:22:55.317 --> 00:22:56.017 A big acquisition. 426 00:22:56.035 --> 00:23:00.816 And I'm so glad seeing this because I mentioned earlier this week to some of my 427 00:23:00.816 --> 00:23:01.002 colleagues. 428 00:23:01.002 --> 00:23:04.746 We were sitting and I said, well, that's the one thing that I'm missing in the 429 00:23:04.746 --> 00:23:06.746 South African market. 430 00:23:06.746 --> 00:23:12.512 We keep on seeing these companies coming out and saying they've had some serious 431 00:23:12.512 --> 00:23:14.512 cost controls and and to, 432 00:23:14.512 --> 00:23:16.512 you know... 433 00:23:16.512 --> 00:23:18.789 these mines, gold mines specifically, they've mentioned the massive free cash 434 00:23:18.789 --> 00:23:20.789 flow, how they've been reducing debt. 435 00:23:20.789 --> 00:23:24.652 I miss the days where we start seeing companies actively pursuing some solid 436 00:23:24.652 --> 00:23:26.652 acquisitions. 437 00:23:26.652 --> 00:23:31.621 And I don't know if it's going to be good or bad, but this is a 1.7 billion rand 438 00:23:31.621 --> 00:23:33.621 acquisition, 439 00:23:33.621 --> 00:23:35.621 a corker. 440 00:23:35.621 --> 00:23:37.246 They actually do these digital payment machines. 441 00:23:37.793 --> 00:23:39.855 Okay, so fintech linked. 442 00:23:40.400 --> 00:23:47.080 acquisition 100 100 fintech provider um they they post about 20 billion odd um 443 00:23:48.405 --> 00:23:55.381 rand digital payments annually so it's a it's a nice solid company very good market 444 00:23:55.381 --> 00:23:57.381 yeah market reacted 445 00:23:57.381 --> 00:23:59.381 positively netbank was up 446 00:23:59.381 --> 00:24:03.881 2.3 on the back of that i think the biggest biggest uh results came from from 447 00:24:04.537 --> 00:24:08.287 not from south african company but from a chinese company 10 cent um 448 00:24:08.588 --> 00:24:15.054 but that had a massive effect on on our market and naturally on two two companies 449 00:24:15.054 --> 00:24:17.054 10 cent what i beat 450 00:24:17.054 --> 00:24:22.426 as i you love the beats don't you yeah i mean when you beat i mean i'm not going to 451 00:24:22.426 --> 00:24:22.884 talk 452 00:24:22.884 --> 00:24:29.191 about the actual values because it's just crazy amount of billions um and when 453 00:24:29.191 --> 00:24:31.191 you've got those amount of zeros i usually struggle but i mean 454 00:24:31.191 --> 00:24:36.519 15 year on year growth on on their revenue uh market expected three percent i 455 00:24:36.520 --> 00:24:41.051 mean three percent was still positive on the back of China's economic data. 456 00:24:41.592 --> 00:24:43.533 Came out 15% year-on-year growth. 457 00:24:43.873 --> 00:24:45.537 This is crazy numbers, Lindsay. 458 00:24:45.538 --> 00:24:47.475 I mean, this is crazy how they've beat. 459 00:24:48.022 --> 00:24:50.717 And naturally, you mentioned the largest company. 460 00:24:50.819 --> 00:24:53.459 Yeah, this is still the largest company on the jersey. 461 00:24:53.506 --> 00:24:58.631 NASPA is up in a four and a quarter today in process, up 3.9%. 462 00:24:58.632 --> 00:25:00.303 And these are off big bases as well. 463 00:25:00.506 --> 00:25:01.506 Four and a quarter percent. 464 00:25:01.537 --> 00:25:03.194 You think, oh, well, it's been down. 465 00:25:03.834 --> 00:25:07.537 Cecil rallies four and a quarter percent from 55 or whatever. 466 00:25:07.840 --> 00:25:14.769 this is not the case this is off a high base skunk this is off a crazy high base i 467 00:25:14.769 --> 00:25:16.769 mean this has been been a company 468 00:25:16.769 --> 00:25:21.370 that's been companies been recovering so nice person not only riding the the 10 469 00:25:21.370 --> 00:25:23.370 cent way but also doing 470 00:25:23.370 --> 00:25:28.612 a few of their own good stuff i mean one of the best i would say is buying back 471 00:25:28.612 --> 00:25:30.612 their own stock i mean so so they really 472 00:25:30.612 --> 00:25:34.487 been unlocking extra value for for their shareholders so how much do you think 473 00:25:34.487 --> 00:25:36.487 course becker is worth now 474 00:25:37.249 --> 00:25:40.833 I can press a few buttons and tell you, but it's going to be obvious. 475 00:25:40.834 --> 00:25:42.513 I mean, you're talking about billions. 476 00:25:43.013 --> 00:25:45.017 I'll have a look while we chat. 477 00:25:45.018 --> 00:25:46.322 Yeah, you can do that. 478 00:25:46.939 --> 00:25:48.244 You got another company, have you? 479 00:25:49.322 --> 00:25:56.291 Yeah, I think that the other one is we've got a trading statement coming from 480 00:25:58.447 --> 00:26:02.853 Capitec. We've also seen Capitec lately going to new 52-week highs. 481 00:26:02.854 --> 00:26:04.650 I mean, this is the company that's just going. 482 00:26:05.108 --> 00:26:12.016 from highs to highs um and uh yeah very solid i mean when i say solid i'm talking 483 00:26:12.075 --> 00:26:18.864 about again crazy crazy good numbers coming from from from capitec um they 484 00:26:18.864 --> 00:26:20.864 they're mentioning in their 485 00:26:20.864 --> 00:26:23.091 trading statement that their hips um is going to be up anything between 486 00:26:23.466 --> 00:26:30.153 22 and 27 for this reporting period i find incredible you know when i see the 487 00:26:30.169 --> 00:26:33.294 unemployment data in south africa 33.2 percent 488 00:26:33.704 --> 00:26:38.370 uh official unemployment uh youth well vulnerable youth unemployment 489 00:26:38.709 --> 00:26:45.573 62.2 i think to myself where are they getting the money where are they finding 490 00:26:45.573 --> 00:26:45.679 the 491 00:26:45.679 --> 00:26:52.557 people to transact i don't understand it i i i don't understand it either i mean 492 00:26:52.558 --> 00:26:58.448 no in the early days they've been been taking um you know massive massive uh 493 00:26:58.449 --> 00:27:04.461 market share from the other banks but you know that that should be you know getting 494 00:27:04.461 --> 00:27:06.461 increasingly difficult. 495 00:27:06.461 --> 00:27:08.461 But look at the innovation. 496 00:27:08.461 --> 00:27:10.025 I mean, Lindsay, we were talking earlier about companies doing cost controls. 497 00:27:10.728 --> 00:27:16.353 I mean, every few months, there's some great innovation coming from Capitec. 498 00:27:16.354 --> 00:27:21.924 I mean, now they're doing data, which you can, by having a bank account, 499 00:27:21.939 --> 00:27:25.205 you can have your own data. 500 00:27:25.689 --> 00:27:31.502 Capitec can now actually be your data provider with doing everything on your 501 00:27:31.502 --> 00:27:33.502 cell phone. 502 00:27:33.502 --> 00:27:35.502 I mean, it's... 503 00:27:35.502 --> 00:27:36.959 It's just every few months they come out with these great, great initiatives. 504 00:27:37.940 --> 00:27:39.740 And they're just now going abroad. 505 00:27:39.760 --> 00:27:42.901 We know they're going to markets similar to South Africa. 506 00:27:43.065 --> 00:27:46.182 And for a few companies, it's paid off. 507 00:27:46.307 --> 00:27:50.338 But I still need to find a company that's really managed to really, 508 00:27:50.479 --> 00:27:56.369 really hit it in the sweet spot when they went beyond the borders of South Africa. 509 00:27:56.432 --> 00:28:01.510 But for now, for the Capitex shareholders, this has been a great win. 510 00:28:01.984 --> 00:28:06.768 and the share price again reacted to another another two percent today now 511 00:28:06.768 --> 00:28:08.768 getting very very close to 512 00:28:08.768 --> 00:28:14.533 2007 but um to your question you want to take a guess what what's chris becker's 513 00:28:14.533 --> 00:28:16.533 net worth oh gosh no i 514 00:28:16.533 --> 00:28:21.502 don't because i i'll get it horribly wrong how much how many billions in rams and 515 00:28:21.502 --> 00:28:23.502 then we'll convert that 516 00:28:23.502 --> 00:28:27.674 to dollars i've got the dollar marks after really done the conversion so so according 517 00:28:27.674 --> 00:28:27.702 to grok 518 00:28:28.184 --> 00:28:29.726 And there's been a few sources. 519 00:28:30.527 --> 00:28:37.473 And this also dates back to the 29th of July, 2025, according to Forbes real-time 520 00:28:37.473 --> 00:28:39.473 billionaire list. 521 00:28:39.473 --> 00:28:39.856 So this is pretty solid. 522 00:28:40.934 --> 00:28:46.442 QuestBank is currently worth $3.8 billion. 523 00:28:46.443 --> 00:28:48.145 They convert that to Rand. 524 00:28:48.551 --> 00:28:49.848 That's just sharp, 68. 525 00:28:50.098 --> 00:28:51.973 68 billion Rand. 526 00:28:54.692 --> 00:28:56.004 That's astonishing. 527 00:28:57.216 --> 00:29:04.101 that's extraordinary i mean i mean congratulations to him where does he live 528 00:29:04.101 --> 00:29:06.101 now what does he do how many wine farms 529 00:29:06.101 --> 00:29:10.789 does he have doesn't matter but uh what a great south african success story has 530 00:29:10.789 --> 00:29:12.789 anyone written his biography 531 00:29:12.789 --> 00:29:18.312 must be i'm gonna remember asking him if i could write it he said no i don't wanna i 532 00:29:18.344 --> 00:29:21.140 don't wanna i don't wanna i don't wanna do it because we used to speak quite a lot. 533 00:29:21.876 --> 00:29:28.804 but um that's a phenomenal phenomenal phenomenal person phenomenal of what he's 534 00:29:28.804 --> 00:29:30.804 done uh you know over the years and yeah now 535 00:29:30.804 --> 00:29:35.788 i've got the greatest greatest respect okay skunk i've got the greatest respect 536 00:29:35.788 --> 00:29:37.788 for you but we've got to get on because your story's looking great 537 00:29:37.788 --> 00:29:42.734 tonight let's have a look at the dollar round first of all fantastic 1751 and that 538 00:29:42.734 --> 00:29:44.734 is a us dollar 539 00:29:44.734 --> 00:29:49.718 that's fallen 1.1 against the mighty round the british pound against the round is 540 00:29:49.718 --> 00:29:51.718 2376 not so glamorous for the 541 00:29:51.718 --> 00:29:54.477 round And the euro-rand is, what is it, 2051, 542 00:29:54.517 --> 00:29:58.302 which is a euro that's fallen a third of a percent against the round. 543 00:29:58.677 --> 00:30:05.544 Euro-dollar, amazing, 117.15, the euro up 0.8% against the dollar, and that's, of 544 00:30:05.544 --> 00:30:05.909 course, 545 00:30:05.909 --> 00:30:11.591 with expectations of interest rates coming down in the United States, therefore 546 00:30:11.591 --> 00:30:13.591 debasing the value of the dollar. 547 00:30:13.591 --> 00:30:15.591 On now to commodities. 548 00:30:15.591 --> 00:30:17.341 Gold price hasn't reacted very much at all to that US dollar, actually. 549 00:30:17.356 --> 00:30:18.056 It's up. 550 00:30:18.056 --> 00:30:22.928 but it's only up around about a third of a percent, $12 to $33.57. 551 00:30:23.010 --> 00:30:25.432 The platinum priced the same, $13.44. 552 00:30:25.433 --> 00:30:26.889 That's actually down $9. 553 00:30:27.374 --> 00:30:31.600 And palladium down $7 to $11.34. 554 00:30:31.601 --> 00:30:38.132 Now, we spoke about oil earlier on, and I was speculating that I could, you know, 555 00:30:38.132 --> 00:30:40.132 looking at graphs, which I do as a hobby, 556 00:30:40.132 --> 00:30:40.725 it just looks horrible, the oil price. 557 00:30:40.726 --> 00:30:43.413 Brent crude oil, $65.43. 558 00:30:43.796 --> 00:30:50.342 down 1.1%, and the West Texas crude, $62.37, down 1.25%, 559 00:30:50.385 --> 00:30:51.900 as the U.S. 560 00:30:52.268 --> 00:30:57.486 production levels go to all-time record highs, and of course OPEC's quota's going 561 00:30:57.486 --> 00:30:57.647 up. 562 00:30:58.088 --> 00:31:01.838 Right, S&P 500, we've spoken about another record high today. 563 00:31:02.354 --> 00:31:04.275 September futures up very slightly. 564 00:31:04.479 --> 00:31:05.179 Hold a second. 565 00:31:05.179 --> 00:31:09.463 Yes, $64.78 up just a little bit. 566 00:31:09.776 --> 00:31:10.877 And what else have we got? 567 00:31:10.897 --> 00:31:13.080 The South African 10-year bond, that's a good news story. 568 00:31:13.900 --> 00:31:20.189 9.61%, the US 10-year, 4.23%. And the Bitcoin price, 569 00:31:20.283 --> 00:31:21.791 close to all-time record highs. 570 00:31:22.408 --> 00:31:26.752 Just coming off a bit now, 120,500 we'll call it. 571 00:31:27.033 --> 00:31:29.549 Still up half a percent on the day. 572 00:31:30.283 --> 00:31:35.549 Skalk, can you give me some ups and downs on the JSE and I'll chip in as well. 573 00:31:36.620 --> 00:31:43.606 yeah i can't do so so when we look at the the the let's call it the top performers 574 00:31:43.606 --> 00:31:45.606 for the day uh we've already mentioned i 575 00:31:45.606 --> 00:31:50.372 mean it's when last did you have the top performer also being the biggest biggest 576 00:31:50.372 --> 00:31:52.372 company on the jays look at that thing no 577 00:31:52.372 --> 00:31:52.395 four no quarter cash 578 00:31:52.434 --> 00:31:59.020 full cash built four and uh you know four four point one three percent sassel three 579 00:31:59.020 --> 00:32:01.020 point nine five percent then 580 00:32:01.020 --> 00:32:06.114 fourth position process three point nine three percent And then we've had Grinroth 581 00:32:06.114 --> 00:32:08.114 that also had a trading statement today. 582 00:32:08.114 --> 00:32:09.317 They were 3.411%. 583 00:32:09.739 --> 00:32:11.356 On the downside, let's quickly have a look. 584 00:32:11.357 --> 00:32:15.544 I'll chip in with Diskem up 3.3% and Aspen up 2.6%. 585 00:32:15.545 --> 00:32:17.325 On the upside downside, please, Skalk. 586 00:32:18.505 --> 00:32:20.763 Downside, Omnia, 4.6%. 587 00:32:20.764 --> 00:32:24.278 We have Karoo, 4.45%. 588 00:32:24.279 --> 00:32:27.356 Then we had two investex, Investec Limited and Investec PLC. 589 00:32:28.524 --> 00:32:32.149 Down 3.53% and 3.32% irrespective. 590 00:32:32.150 --> 00:32:33.410 That's quite a big drop. 591 00:32:33.789 --> 00:32:34.649 That's massive. 592 00:32:35.192 --> 00:32:37.875 I wonder if that's not an ex-diff story. 593 00:32:37.930 --> 00:32:38.630 I'll have a look now. 594 00:32:39.414 --> 00:32:43.141 And then we had RCL, Rainbow. 595 00:32:43.836 --> 00:32:47.563 We had them coming at 2.83% down for today. 596 00:32:47.564 --> 00:32:49.719 And then I need to mention number six there, 597 00:32:50.172 --> 00:32:55.407 because this has been a company that's been in the hot seat and a good way of... 598 00:32:55.668 --> 00:33:01.594 for many, many, many weeks now, and that's British American Tobacco Company taking a 599 00:33:01.594 --> 00:33:03.594 bit of a breather today, 600 00:33:03.594 --> 00:33:04.637 down 2.7%. 601 00:33:05.161 --> 00:33:10.262 And after the walk, I've seen there's been some trading in own shares of British 602 00:33:10.262 --> 00:33:12.262 American Tobacco Company today. 603 00:33:12.262 --> 00:33:14.262 Okay. 604 00:33:14.262 --> 00:33:16.262 What about Investec? 605 00:33:16.262 --> 00:33:18.262 What's the story there? 606 00:33:18.262 --> 00:33:20.559 I'm actually going up and just see if it's an exit story before I start 607 00:33:20.809 --> 00:33:21.872 running for the hills. 608 00:33:23.903 --> 00:33:24.603 Must be. 609 00:33:24.603 --> 00:33:24.979 Let's have a look. 610 00:33:24.979 --> 00:33:26.981 Although I don't remember the results. 611 00:33:28.520 --> 00:33:30.321 I can't remember the results either. 612 00:33:30.403 --> 00:33:33.203 Now I've got a frozen screen. 613 00:33:33.578 --> 00:33:34.641 That's a big problem. 614 00:33:35.500 --> 00:33:38.422 The frozen screen or the Investec falling 3.5%? 615 00:33:40.625 --> 00:33:41.821 The frozen screen. 616 00:33:42.118 --> 00:33:42.818 Okay. 617 00:33:42.818 --> 00:33:43.258 So, yeah. 618 00:33:43.259 --> 00:33:43.959 Oh, well, don't worry. 619 00:33:45.180 --> 00:33:46.508 We'll find out. 620 00:33:46.571 --> 00:33:49.071 But I don't remember the results being out recently. 621 00:33:49.399 --> 00:33:50.099 Okay. 622 00:33:50.228 --> 00:33:57.115 uh skunk what we've got to do now is wrap up the jse indices so the jse today closed 623 00:33:57.115 --> 00:33:57.195 at 102 624 00:33:57.195 --> 00:33:58.037 points or 102 uh 625 00:33:58.440 --> 00:34:05.166 278 points that was up a percentage the resources were down 33 626 00:34:05.244 --> 00:34:12.213 percent industrials were up 1.8 percent actually if you got gonna have naspa some 627 00:34:12.213 --> 00:34:14.213 process doing what it's doing you're gonna 628 00:34:14.213 --> 00:34:19.080 have the industrials up two percent but yeah one point eight two percent on 629 00:34:19.080 --> 00:34:21.080 industrials uh financials up one point 2% 630 00:34:21.080 --> 00:34:25.847 and even the SA Property Index had a solid day today, 31 basis points in the green. 631 00:34:26.386 --> 00:34:32.429 When we look at the current US market as we sit here, the S&P 500 is up 632 00:34:32.797 --> 00:34:33.875 14 basis points. 633 00:34:34.258 --> 00:34:36.336 Dow Jones, 77 basis points up. 634 00:34:36.445 --> 00:34:42.601 And the Nasdaq, after a solid run yesterday, just in the green, currently up 635 00:34:42.601 --> 00:34:44.601 9 basis points. 636 00:34:44.601 --> 00:34:45.508 Value traded in the market today, not a bad day. 637 00:34:45.656 --> 00:34:50.261 I mean, we had this conversation a few weeks ago, and a few of my colleagues 638 00:34:50.261 --> 00:34:52.261 yesterday also. 639 00:34:52.261 --> 00:34:52.543 I had a few of my, 640 00:34:52.781 --> 00:34:58.312 let's call it the buy side or sell side stockbrokers yesterday meeting, 641 00:34:58.351 --> 00:35:03.281 and they actually mentioned how they've seen quite a bit of, call it, 642 00:35:04.015 --> 00:35:07.500 uptick in activity in the local stockbroking market. 643 00:35:07.937 --> 00:35:11.297 You and I have seen it in the daily trade, and today was no different. 644 00:35:11.298 --> 00:35:13.640 We had another 23 billion day. 645 00:35:14.504 --> 00:35:16.086 And this is now becoming a bit of the norm. 646 00:35:16.707 --> 00:35:21.252 So definitely, definitely some interest in JSE stocks are looking good. 647 00:35:21.650 --> 00:35:22.350 Very good. 648 00:35:22.693 --> 00:35:23.693 Great chat, Skulk. 649 00:35:24.193 --> 00:35:29.420 Even more than usual, Skulk Glow is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in 650 00:35:29.420 --> 00:35:29.557 Cape Town. 651 00:35:29.701 --> 00:35:31.193 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 652 00:35:31.865 --> 00:35:38.803 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 653 00:35:38.803 --> 00:35:40.803 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 654 00:35:40.803 --> 00:35:43.334 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, employer. 655 00:35:43.656 --> 00:35:47.500 or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 656 00:35:47.959 --> 00:35:54.928 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 657 00:35:54.928 --> 00:35:56.928 entity other than the speaker or the author. 658 00:35:56.928 --> 00:36:01.107 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 659 00:36:01.107 --> 00:36:03.107 change, revision, 660 00:36:03.107 --> 00:36:03.248 and rethinking at any time. 661 00:36:03.560 --> 00:36:05.982 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.