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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JCA has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the five o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Scout Clow, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

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I hate it when the market is sort of up a
third of a percent or anything is up a

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third of a percent, Scout, because I say,
you know, get on with it.

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Make it.

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half a percent at least or one percent or
flat on the day or down a bit but a third

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of a percent which is what i'm looking at
here

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on the s&p 500 futures and also looking at
the jse it's a good day because it's up

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but it's not

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exactly inspiring

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is it no no it's and then also the volumes
we will most probably

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touch on the on the let's 20 20 odd
billion trade for today

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But it hasn't been the past four days.

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I mean, the past four days, we've pretty
much had a $44 billion day.

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And then it was followed by the last three
trading days with $33 and $34 billion

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traded.

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So today, I think it's just the market now
getting to a point where we've reached the

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latter

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part of the reporting season.

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We've had a few local yokels that actually
did report.

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So that was good But I mean From an S&P
500 point of view

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We're now getting towards the end And it's
been a live one You know when I say a live

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one

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When I say end We'll be sitting with 400
down As of yesterday

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Pretty much 100 to go And as we sit here
This will be

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Let's call it the second best

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reporting season in terms of beats
compared to,

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let's go third quarter 2023.

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What did we have today?

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We had Disney and McDonald's, I think,
didn't we?

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Yeah, I don't know.

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I haven't seen what's going to be
reporting today.

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But it's been a big, big week.

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I mean, we've had fairly big, big names
reporting.

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And most of them were big beats.

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I mean...

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We had the likes of the Microsoft,

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those companies really beat handsomely.

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I mean, the NVIDIAs, they came out very,
very well.

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So in general, the companies brought out.

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But I mean, I've actually sitting with a
graph in front of me where they look at

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the actual

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earnings growth.

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And you can see this over the past, let's
call it five years.

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and how let's call it a year and a half
ago these these companies were trading at

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crazy

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crazy high earning growth levels

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now we've always said that sooner or later
this will taper taper off it will will

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start to slow down yes

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um so so one can argue that with

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the the initial tariff reaction in april
is that most of these analysts

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went back to their forecast and said oh
this is not going to be good And maybe a

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little bit more pessimistic.

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And that's why a little bit more than 80%
of the

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S&P 500 companies beat expectations this
reporting season.

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But the growth forecast wasn't the bar
wasn't set very, very high.

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So you could see the likes of the Amazon
now, there was good reasons every time

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these companies dropped.

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But the likes of the Amazon will come out
as not looking too bad.

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but the share price would drop 8%, 9%.

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I would rather look, sorry to interrupt
you, but I would rather look not at the

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number of beats, because that can be
fudgy, say,

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well, go a little bit lower, because we're
going to beat that, and then the market

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will go up.

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I'm sure that goes on in a very, very
innocent sort of way, shall we say.

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I would rather look at the prospect
statements.

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I'd so like to say the prospect statements
over this quarter.

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have been excellent compared to the
previous quarter because most people say

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that their growth figures or the revenue
figures, whatever it is,

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will be better than the quarter gone.

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That's what we estimate anyway.

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I mean, have you got any sense from people
saying, well, it was a good quarter, but

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the next one's going to be even better or
something different?

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No, no.

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The general theme, the general theme was
twofold.

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The one most people say that...

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the trading environment remains tough.

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So that's the first point.

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And I think the trend, and that's been
local as well, where there is so many

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focus.

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I mean, we've had it with Gleamcore that
came out with the official results today.

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They're so focused on, we're going to do
$1 billion worth of cost cuttings.

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Now, exactly what you said, if the company
came out, And the outlook,

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I know you love your outlooks.

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Love the outlook.

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You sort of go straight to the end of the
statement where you look at the outlooks.

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If the outlook is looking positive, then…
You feel warm and fuzzy and you would most

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probably, if you're long,

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stay long and don't have the company, you
know, feel sort of, should I be going in

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and buy these companies?

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But I didn't get that.

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None of these companies really gave me the
feeling that they will back themselves,

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that the latter part of this year is going
to be looking way better than the first

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part.

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And the growth, as I mentioned, wasn't
that good.

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It was beats, but it wasn't that good.

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And I think that's why we've seen some of
these companies reacted.

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Not too positively.

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I want to look at trends.

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I want to look at big trends today.

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Just very briefly, Scalp, a couple of
minutes, if you and I can manage a couple

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of minutes on any subject.

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It would be the big trend of weight loss
drug companies, for example.

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And I noticed that Eli Lilly and what's
the European one, Novo Nadezhda,

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their numbers have been not quite as good
as they had expected.

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Has the share price of those two companies
come down?

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Have you noticed?

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Can you have a quick look?

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For example, at Eli Lilly, if you can get
that up.

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I don't know.

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Yeah, I've got it up.

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I mean, when you look at Eli Lilly,
definitely the big hype.

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When you look at the New York Soccer
Chance listing, I mean, that whole, what

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is that drug called?

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It begins with an O, doesn't it?

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A limp something.

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Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Okay, we'll get it now.

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Or is that the European one?

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I don't know.

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No, no, no, no.

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I don't know.

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But bottom line is we all know what drug
they're talking about.

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Yes.

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Which they're now using as a weight loss
drug.

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When there was this major hype around that
drug a little bit more than a year ago, I

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mean,

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this share price was trading at way over
$950 per share.

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And now?

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Today it's trading at $750 per share.

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That's a big move.

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And I know you like your graphs and your
trends and that kind of thing.

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of things and i'm looking at this graph
and i'm no no no expert but i'm looking at

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this and this is not looking too

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healthy because remember this the share
price did did go off when you you look at

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2003 levels this the share price was
trading at 350 dollars so it's still still

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looking really really

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good but uh yeah people people there's a
major major we've often had this

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conversation similar to ai Bye.

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I mean, AI, I've got no doubt that AI will
take over the world.

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But man, it's like the internet in the
early 2000s. We all knew that the internet

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was going to take over the world.

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But the prices you paid in 2000 made for a
top three company.

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It's a very interesting story because you
know what people say, it's different this

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time because this thing magnifies itself
every few minutes

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or something like that.

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And there's a new...

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grok or chat gpt or co-pilot by microsoft
coming out to and now look what it can do

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how much more can it do to

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me i don't know but i'm not i'm not the
customer it's the big corporations that

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are the customers but yes if you

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look back and you ignore the fundamentals
of the company just say to somebody this

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is what happened with the tulip mania in

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in the netherlands uh hundreds of years
ago and you go through the big the

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big mad uh rushes to buy stuff you know
usually ends in the same way, doesn't it?

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Yeah, that's exactly my point.

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I mean, we all knew 2000 that, well, not
all knew,

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but the same reports came out in 2000
where they said, people,

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the internet is going to take over the
world.

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Every day there's more companies connected
to this thing called the interweb or

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whatever they called it back then.

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But it's this is going to be massive in a
few years time you're not going to stand

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in any

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banking queue you're going to do

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your banking via this internet thing
you're not going to go to any travel agent

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or

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airport you're going to book your airline
tickets over the internet no you're crazy

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that

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can't be yep that's going to be that
that's exactly what we're going to do and

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that this is going to take over the world

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And that's why you should buy the likes of
the Microsoft back then, was it Cisco

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Systems?

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What is the other one?

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What was the third largest?

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General Electric.

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Why?

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Because these things, these computers need
power boxes.

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Every single person will need a computer
to run this thing called the Internet.

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And what happened?

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I mean, we've had, that was the three
largest companies, funny enough, back in

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the S&P 500 in 2000.

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or the end of 1999.

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And when you actually, you know, fast
forward, I think it was three years later,

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two or three years later,

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eventually, yes, they did take over the
world.

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We didn't stand in any queues to go to the
bank.

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We did buy our airline tickets over the
internet.

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But.

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Microsoft dropped by 52% over the next
three years.

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Cisco Systems, I think, was...

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Oh, General Electric was something like
54% down.

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And the Cisco Systems, which actually
connected these things, that was down 74%

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over the next three years.

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How long did it take the NASDAQ?

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You know, when the NASDAQ crashed in
March, I think, of 2000, from a peak of

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5,000 or something like that.

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And how many years did it take for it to
get...

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back to that high wasn't this seven or
eight years wasn't it maybe even longer

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well i could do the

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easy calculation because if you take the
period may 1999 and i'm not don't have any

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data so please

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if i make a mistake with

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maybe a month or two we're used to them um
yeah won't be the first but I mean if you

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take the period

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May 1999 to May 2009

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The S&P 500 over that 10-year period
yielded a negative return.

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I think it was something like negative 0.5
or something like that.

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But the bottom line was it actually had
negative performances over 10 years purely

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because everybody

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bought at these highs.

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I mean, it's just crazy.

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It is crazy when you look at that.

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And I'm not saying that history will
repeat itself this time around.

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Please do not think I'm saying that.

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I do like where the AI is going.

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I just look at, you could see that the
earnings growth are tapering down,

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yet these companies are still trading at
fairly, fairly high valuations.

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And what's that game where the music stops
and then...

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Simple Simon Says or what's it?

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No, no, it's Musical Chairs, isn't it?

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The music stops.

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Yeah, it is.

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They take the chair away.

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Yeah, Musical Chairs.

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I used to love that.

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I was rubbish at it, but I loved it.

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No, no, I can promise you when the music
stops, I promise you it's going to be a

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few people without chairs.

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Okay.

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Let's have a look at something else,
Skalk.

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I don't know how we got onto that.

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We were talking about, in general, trends
and how they eventually, most of them

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eventually,

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correct themselves in some way.

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We looked at the weight loss thing.

239
00:12:48.233 --> 00:12:54.288
Now, the weight loss thing is very
interesting because there was a woman on

240
00:12:54.288 --> 00:12:56.288
television I saw, she said, well,

241
00:12:56.288 --> 00:12:59.881
I bought this thing and my medical
insurance wouldn't cover it, so I paid for

242
00:12:59.881 --> 00:12:59.942
it myself.

243
00:12:59.942 --> 00:13:00.866
It was fantastic.

244
00:13:01.303 --> 00:13:03.444
and I read all sorts of other benefits
that...

245
00:13:03.512 --> 00:13:07.033
but it has as well to do with, I don't
know,

246
00:13:08.793 --> 00:13:11.773
it would help against having a stroke.

247
00:13:12.172 --> 00:13:15.234
It would help my blood pressure and all
those sort of things.

248
00:13:15.235 --> 00:13:15.992
So fantastic.

249
00:13:16.078 --> 00:13:18.078
And I lost 12 kilograms.

250
00:13:18.094 --> 00:13:20.992
And she said, I couldn't afford it
anymore.

251
00:13:21.273 --> 00:13:22.023
So I stopped it.

252
00:13:22.258 --> 00:13:28.555
And I put on 10 kilograms in half the time
that it took me to lose the 12,

253
00:13:28.820 --> 00:13:32.305
just because of going back to my old
habits of eating, the same habits I...

254
00:13:32.700 --> 00:13:33.461
I'd had before.

255
00:13:33.961 --> 00:13:40.846
So I think those sort of anecdotal stories
don't do the share price of Eli Lilly and

256
00:13:40.846 --> 00:13:42.846
the European

257
00:13:42.846 --> 00:13:44.846
one.

258
00:13:44.846 --> 00:13:46.846
They don't do the share price much good,
do they?

259
00:13:46.846 --> 00:13:47.275
People on television saying that sort of
thing.

260
00:13:47.611 --> 00:13:53.361
Man, I'm rather going to stay quiet here
because I know a few people that said, no,

261
00:13:53.361 --> 00:13:55.361
I mean,

262
00:13:55.361 --> 00:13:56.846
there's no shortcuts.

263
00:13:56.924 --> 00:13:59.205
Come on, to good health, there's no
shortcuts.

264
00:13:59.206 --> 00:14:00.080
You're quite right.

265
00:14:01.174 --> 00:14:02.002
I mean, that's just my...

266
00:14:02.352 --> 00:14:04.014
I'll tell you my weight story one day.

267
00:14:04.333 --> 00:14:05.175
It's fascinating.

268
00:14:05.294 --> 00:14:07.900
And that sort of leads into my next thing,
Escalcon.

269
00:14:07.939 --> 00:14:09.700
That is alcohol companies.

270
00:14:10.142 --> 00:14:14.345
We had, when was it, last week, AB InBev
fell 10% in one day.

271
00:14:15.423 --> 00:14:16.228
That was correct, wasn't it?

272
00:14:16.229 --> 00:14:16.929
Yeah.

273
00:14:16.929 --> 00:14:19.071
Well, we've had numbers out of Diageo as
well.

274
00:14:19.634 --> 00:14:22.087
And, yeah, the headline numbers looked
horrible.

275
00:14:22.088 --> 00:14:24.290
But then it was all to do with
restructuring.

276
00:14:25.040 --> 00:14:29.837
It wasn't to do with sales and drink
trends changing, et cetera.

277
00:14:30.232 --> 00:14:32.054
It was mainly to do with restructuring.

278
00:14:32.374 --> 00:14:38.702
In fact, they said they did incredibly
well with one of their premium brands, Don

279
00:14:38.702 --> 00:14:40.702
Julio, the tequila.

280
00:14:40.702 --> 00:14:40.921
I know you like a tequila occasionally,
don't you?

281
00:14:42.124 --> 00:14:43.187
Just between you and I.

282
00:14:44.788 --> 00:14:46.648
We're not the greatest of friends.

283
00:14:46.741 --> 00:14:50.570
I mean, we've sort of got a love-hate
relationship, me and tequila.

284
00:14:50.571 --> 00:14:51.398
I love that.

285
00:14:51.429 --> 00:14:52.429
That's the whole point.

286
00:14:52.430 --> 00:14:53.710
My Mexican friend.

287
00:14:53.711 --> 00:14:54.411
My Mexican friend.

288
00:14:54.411 --> 00:14:56.913
Because he can do one thing to you one
night and another thing the next.

289
00:14:56.945 --> 00:14:58.179
That's the whole point about it.

290
00:14:58.523 --> 00:14:59.538
Anyway, Don Julio.

291
00:15:00.236 --> 00:15:05.341
Also Guinness doing very well amongst a
certain sector of the population, young

292
00:15:05.341 --> 00:15:05.560
people.

293
00:15:05.642 --> 00:15:08.845
But young people not drinking has been a
big factor.

294
00:15:09.189 --> 00:15:13.329
But non-alcoholic beers, sales of Diageo
went up, not beer,

295
00:15:14.353 --> 00:15:20.579
any non-alcoholic drink went up 40%, which
is off a lower base than the booze part of

296
00:15:20.579 --> 00:15:22.579
their business,

297
00:15:22.579 --> 00:15:24.579
but not bad.

298
00:15:24.579 --> 00:15:26.579
I don't know.

299
00:15:26.579 --> 00:15:28.579
Do you ever drink a zero beer?

300
00:15:28.579 --> 00:15:30.579
I do.

301
00:15:30.579 --> 00:15:32.579
Oh, do you?

302
00:15:32.579 --> 00:15:34.579
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

303
00:15:34.579 --> 00:15:36.579
If I'm really, really sick.

304
00:15:36.579 --> 00:15:38.579
Yeah, it is.

305
00:15:38.579 --> 00:15:40.579
It's torture, isn't it?

306
00:15:40.579 --> 00:15:42.579
If you like a proper beer.

307
00:15:42.579 --> 00:15:44.579
I'll tell you a very quick story before we
get on to more important things like, what

308
00:15:44.579 --> 00:15:46.579
was I going to talk about?

309
00:15:46.579 --> 00:15:48.579
I want to talk about a couple of companies
that reported on the JSC.

310
00:15:48.579 --> 00:15:50.747
I had two non-alcoholic beers, a very nice
Dutch brand, after I had a sauna today.

311
00:15:51.450 --> 00:15:53.888
I drank these things and I got up and I
felt woozy.

312
00:15:54.343 --> 00:15:55.104
And you know what it was?

313
00:15:55.485 --> 00:16:02.350
It was my brain being told the action of
me opening a bottle and putting it in my

314
00:16:02.350 --> 00:16:02.351
mouth and

315
00:16:02.389 --> 00:16:04.194
drinking it and it's got beer written on
it.

316
00:16:05.076 --> 00:16:10.944
It fooled my body for a moment into
thinking that I was drinking alcohol and I

317
00:16:10.944 --> 00:16:12.944
felt a little bit woozy, you know,

318
00:16:12.944 --> 00:16:14.944
because I don't drink.

319
00:16:14.944 --> 00:16:17.225
So my body was completely discombobulated
by this whole thing.

320
00:16:17.350 --> 00:16:18.194
It's fascinating.

321
00:16:19.162 --> 00:16:20.834
Well, it's a placebo effect, eh?

322
00:16:20.835 --> 00:16:21.725
Yeah, that sort of thing.

323
00:16:22.147 --> 00:16:23.069
Exactly right, yeah.

324
00:16:23.235 --> 00:16:24.436
I think it won't last for long.

325
00:16:24.456 --> 00:16:29.001
When I get to number five, it'll be, wait
a second, my body, wait a second.

326
00:16:29.442 --> 00:16:30.641
Who are you trying to kid?

327
00:16:30.723 --> 00:16:31.844
Who are you trying to kid?

328
00:16:31.860 --> 00:16:32.560
Exactly.

329
00:16:34.063 --> 00:16:38.173
No, no, I thought the trends were, I mean,
it's like you mentioned, it's definitely,

330
00:16:38.174 --> 00:16:41.719
you can see there's a major shift in the
younger generation.

331
00:16:43.938 --> 00:16:45.751
They're doing different things.

332
00:16:45.752 --> 00:16:50.844
I mean, I like watching these MMA.

333
00:16:52.007 --> 00:16:56.413
MMA sports, and you can see the different
drinks, the energy drinks that they've

334
00:16:56.413 --> 00:16:56.672
got.

335
00:16:56.672 --> 00:17:03.401
I'm not going to mention, but when you
switch on either the Formula One or the

336
00:17:03.401 --> 00:17:05.401
MotoGP,

337
00:17:05.401 --> 00:17:06.862
any sports these days, you've got these
energy drinks,

338
00:17:06.925 --> 00:17:12.433
which become more popular than any of
these alcoholic drinks.

339
00:17:12.434 --> 00:17:13.134
So unhealthy.

340
00:17:13.134 --> 00:17:14.448
I know.

341
00:17:14.651 --> 00:17:15.351
I know.

342
00:17:15.351 --> 00:17:16.136
It's a different poison.

343
00:17:16.495 --> 00:17:18.073
But you're 100% right.

344
00:17:18.354 --> 00:17:21.508
You could see, I mean, that I think it was
high.

345
00:17:21.509 --> 00:17:26.092
I think it was 46%, if I'm not mistaken,
the growth in their non-alcoholic beers.

346
00:17:26.373 --> 00:17:31.939
And they've mentioned that the amount of
the volume, how that has dropped down.

347
00:17:32.658 --> 00:17:35.885
What was a little bit worrying for me when
I looked at Annalisa Bush was,

348
00:17:36.119 --> 00:17:39.705
you could see very similar to the likes of
British American Tobacco Company.

349
00:17:40.143 --> 00:17:43.096
Every year, their volumes actually drop
down,

350
00:17:43.596 --> 00:17:48.174
yet they manage to grow their revenue.

351
00:17:48.923 --> 00:17:51.706
And by doing that, they're increasing the
profit margins.

352
00:17:51.707 --> 00:17:54.128
So just increasing the beer prices.

353
00:17:54.647 --> 00:17:58.936
And the actual beer drinkers won't stop
drinking beer.

354
00:18:00.631 --> 00:18:05.499
You can charge them 50 rand for beer, or
you can charge them under the 50 rand for

355
00:18:05.499 --> 00:18:05.902
beer.

356
00:18:05.902 --> 00:18:08.546
They will most probably just how does the
same go?

357
00:18:08.577 --> 00:18:13.608
When the price of food actually goes up,
you'll eat less.

358
00:18:13.827 --> 00:18:17.452
And when the prices of beer go up, you'll
eat even less.

359
00:18:19.843 --> 00:18:25.822
I wouldn't know I'm a non-drinker but I
mean D'Age was interesting

360
00:18:26.486 --> 00:18:32.509
D'Age was interesting and you mentioned it
the initial thought when I looked at the

361
00:18:32.509 --> 00:18:34.509
results

362
00:18:34.509 --> 00:18:37.884
I was worried and then immediately what I
usually do is when I look at this

363
00:18:38.275 --> 00:18:41.962
I look at the pre-market prices and you
can see it was something like 4%

364
00:18:42.228 --> 00:18:46.150
up and I was like wow this is interesting
I mean And

365
00:18:46.431 --> 00:18:53.172
And you mentioned a few things that
they've done because the sales were

366
00:18:53.172 --> 00:18:53.275
something like

367
00:18:53.332 --> 00:18:59.152
1.7% up and operating profit was down like
1%.

368
00:19:00.113 --> 00:19:03.137
But when you look at these trends and you
like look at these trends,

369
00:19:03.840 --> 00:19:10.512
the one thing that stood out for me is
they mentioned how some of these drinkers

370
00:19:10.512 --> 00:19:12.512
now go to

371
00:19:12.512 --> 00:19:15.012
these exotics, cannabis type of drinks.

372
00:19:15.479 --> 00:19:17.061
I don't even know that that exists.

373
00:19:17.400 --> 00:19:21.904
But they mentioned that there was quite a
growth in that market.

374
00:19:22.064 --> 00:19:24.686
So, yeah, I thought very interesting.

375
00:19:24.748 --> 00:19:25.631
It is very interesting.

376
00:19:25.647 --> 00:19:29.475
And it will settle down, of course, just
very quickly, again, if we can.

377
00:19:30.014 --> 00:19:33.100
Would you buy British American tobacco or
Diageo?

378
00:19:34.459 --> 00:19:36.397
Okay, so firstly, I own both.

379
00:19:36.787 --> 00:19:37.897
Okay.

380
00:19:37.928 --> 00:19:40.537
Would you top up either more than the
other?

381
00:19:41.506 --> 00:19:44.506
No, no, I'm struggling to justify.

382
00:19:45.475 --> 00:19:49.975
British American tobacco at the thousand
buck levels is trading at all-time highs.

383
00:19:49.976 --> 00:19:54.058
I always struggle buying any company when
it's trading at all-time highs.

384
00:19:54.315 --> 00:19:56.237
Not for the pure reason.

385
00:19:57.979 --> 00:20:01.714
I'm struggling with the likes of British
American tobacco company.

386
00:20:01.854 --> 00:20:08.495
And what is positive on them is you can
see how they mention every result

387
00:20:09.401 --> 00:20:14.026
release, how they, you know, it's called
smoking products.

388
00:20:15.388 --> 00:20:19.570
is becoming less of a percentage of their
total revenue.

389
00:20:19.890 --> 00:20:24.180
So they're clearly working on creating
a...

390
00:20:24.818 --> 00:20:28.160
I want to use the word healthier type of
product.

391
00:20:28.522 --> 00:20:34.227
But it's always going to be, I mean, it's
always going to be, when your company is

392
00:20:34.227 --> 00:20:36.227
called British American Tobacco Company,

393
00:20:36.227 --> 00:20:38.227
it's going to be a tough one.

394
00:20:38.227 --> 00:20:39.735
So it's a great dividend buyer.

395
00:20:41.274 --> 00:20:46.821
As I mentioned, it's a company that always
managed to increase the prices of their

396
00:20:46.821 --> 00:20:46.958
products.

397
00:20:48.821 --> 00:20:53.664
But I think over time, this will be a
company that I most probably exit and not

398
00:20:53.664 --> 00:20:55.664
enter again.

399
00:20:55.664 --> 00:20:57.664
That's just one of them.

400
00:20:57.664 --> 00:21:00.298
Okay, so I'm leaning towards Diageo with
you, because you did not answer the

401
00:21:00.298 --> 00:21:00.562
question.

402
00:21:00.562 --> 00:21:02.142
But good, I'm glad I got that.

403
00:21:02.439 --> 00:21:03.861
A lean towards Diageo.

404
00:21:04.361 --> 00:21:10.267
I wanted to talk about the bond market
today because it's being really bombarded

405
00:21:10.267 --> 00:21:12.267
with so many different

406
00:21:12.267 --> 00:21:13.298
fundamentals, and I don't know which one
is going to prevail.

407
00:21:13.580 --> 00:21:17.845
But we'll do that next week because it's
quite a long story, and it's a very

408
00:21:17.845 --> 00:21:19.845
interesting story.

409
00:21:19.845 --> 00:21:21.486
But for now, we've got to have a look at
some prices, Scott.

410
00:21:21.638 --> 00:21:26.881
I said it was a pretty routine day, but
let's see if the numbers confirm that.

411
00:21:27.799 --> 00:21:28.861
And have a look at the RAND.

412
00:21:28.862 --> 00:21:33.584
The RAND, I thought the RAND was going to
go on a bit of a trot to the downside, but

413
00:21:33.584 --> 00:21:35.584
not a bit of it.

414
00:21:35.584 --> 00:21:36.045
The dollar RAND 1778.

415
00:21:36.139 --> 00:21:41.420
OK, the dollar is 0.4% up against the
mighty local currency,

416
00:21:41.529 --> 00:21:43.779
but still we're solidly below 18.

417
00:21:44.482 --> 00:21:49.904
British pound against the RAND is 2373 and
the euro RAND is 2070.

418
00:21:49.905 --> 00:21:50.605
the Eurodollar.

419
00:21:50.666 --> 00:21:53.807
£1.1645, which has barely changed.

420
00:21:53.848 --> 00:21:58.986
British pound, £1.3345, which is half a
percent full for the pound.

421
00:21:59.471 --> 00:22:00.830
Now then, on to commodities.

422
00:22:01.408 --> 00:22:04.932
Gold price, it was last week it was below
£3,300, I think.

423
00:22:05.025 --> 00:22:05.947
Or was I dreaming it?

424
00:22:05.948 --> 00:22:06.648
No, it was.

425
00:22:06.648 --> 00:22:07.822
It was £3,298.

426
00:22:07.823 --> 00:22:12.463
I remember reading it when I was
interviewing somebody and thinking, hello,

427
00:22:12.463 --> 00:22:14.463
that's not good.

428
00:22:14.463 --> 00:22:17.588
Now, it's not that far away from £3,400.

429
00:22:17.589 --> 00:22:19.853
£3,377, down just a tad on the day.

430
00:22:19.854 --> 00:22:20.554
Platinum up.

431
00:22:20.554 --> 00:22:24.836
a little bit, up about a percent to $13.43
an ounce.

432
00:22:24.855 --> 00:22:29.957
Palladiums had a horrible day, down four
and a third percent or $52 per ounce.

433
00:22:30.019 --> 00:22:37.012
Now the oil price, and that was in the
news this week because of the OPEC quota

434
00:22:37.012 --> 00:22:39.012
rise,

435
00:22:39.012 --> 00:22:42.777
and it fell a couple of percent on that
day, but we all knew that was going to

436
00:22:42.777 --> 00:22:44.777
happen, so of course we all bought it,
didn't you Skulk?

437
00:22:44.777 --> 00:22:47.137
$68.24 for Brent crude oil, up 0.9%.

438
00:22:47.802 --> 00:22:53.148
And West Texas crude, $65.71, around about
the same,

439
00:22:53.206 --> 00:22:55.308
around about 0.8% higher.

440
00:22:56.089 --> 00:22:57.074
Any other news there?

441
00:22:57.370 --> 00:22:59.230
Heating oil, that's nothing we look at.

442
00:22:59.870 --> 00:23:01.214
No, that's okay.

443
00:23:01.574 --> 00:23:06.566
Bitcoin is $115,000, let's call it, which
should be up about 2%.

444
00:23:07.300 --> 00:23:10.425
South African 10-year bond, $9.675.

445
00:23:11.019 --> 00:23:14.941
The U.S. 10-year, $4.215.

446
00:23:15.426 --> 00:23:21.153
And the S&P 500 is currently 63.51, up
0.4%.

447
00:23:21.154 --> 00:23:24.755
That's the S&P 500 futures for September.

448
00:23:25.536 --> 00:23:30.903
Skull, tell me about Glencore and Quilter,
if you would, on the JSC before we get the

449
00:23:30.903 --> 00:23:32.903
other numbers.

450
00:23:32.903 --> 00:23:35.724
Yeah, Glencore, I mean, they guided well
enough.

451
00:23:35.770 --> 00:23:39.817
So last week we had the trading statement.

452
00:23:40.489 --> 00:23:41.958
And, yeah, at...

453
00:23:42.410 --> 00:23:43.812
I already saw in the trading statement,

454
00:23:43.813 --> 00:23:49.539
you could see the production in both coal
and copper was really flat.

455
00:23:49.859 --> 00:23:54.125
It didn't look exciting at all.

456
00:23:54.562 --> 00:23:59.359
And as I mentioned, when you look at the
balance sheet,

457
00:23:59.734 --> 00:24:02.156
they're still sitting with quite a bit of
debt.

458
00:24:03.812 --> 00:24:07.391
Net debt increased to close to 15 billion
US dollar now.

459
00:24:08.875 --> 00:24:11.406
and then they've got this major major
focus where they

460
00:24:11.670 --> 00:24:16.036
where they focus on the cost-cutting
exercises.

461
00:24:16.037 --> 00:24:19.239
So that, as I mentioned, is always a big
question mark.

462
00:24:19.696 --> 00:24:24.360
They did mention that they announced a
share buyback as well.

463
00:24:24.907 --> 00:24:29.048
But either as it may, I didn't think that
the I mean,

464
00:24:29.313 --> 00:24:33.516
the $1 billion cost-saving didn't really
excite me.

465
00:24:34.251 --> 00:24:39.016
You want to when the likes of the copper
prices are moving, you want to see

466
00:24:39.862 --> 00:24:46.268
extra focus being placed on production,
ways to produce and not ways to save.

467
00:24:46.327 --> 00:24:49.514
So, yeah, I didn't think it was too good.

468
00:24:49.569 --> 00:24:54.335
And even after a bad trading statement
guided towards this,

469
00:24:54.499 --> 00:24:59.936
it's called a flattish result, we still
saw a major reaction today.

470
00:24:59.983 --> 00:25:06.264
In an environment where the resource index
was positive today, Linko dropped 5.8%

471
00:25:06.264 --> 00:25:08.264
today.

472
00:25:08.264 --> 00:25:08.718
So that after results came out very bad.

473
00:25:09.414 --> 00:25:13.000
Quilter not quite so glamorous in terms of
up or down.

474
00:25:13.020 --> 00:25:14.885
It was just, yeah, it was okay.

475
00:25:16.107 --> 00:25:18.428
It was okay, but also, again, well-guided.

476
00:25:18.951 --> 00:25:23.982
So we saw a bit of a positive reaction
when they already mentioned.

477
00:25:24.870 --> 00:25:28.694
I mean, I'm not a shareholder in this
company, and I would most probably not

478
00:25:28.694 --> 00:25:30.694
become a shareholder.

479
00:25:30.694 --> 00:25:35.483
But I think, you know, the positives is
they've grown their assets under

480
00:25:35.483 --> 00:25:37.483
management and administration, you know,

481
00:25:37.483 --> 00:25:40.569
with 6%, up £126 billion.

482
00:25:42.944 --> 00:25:47.491
And one can say, well, yeah, that must be,
you know, 6% must be all growth in the

483
00:25:47.491 --> 00:25:47.880
market.

484
00:25:47.880 --> 00:25:48.366
And it wasn't the case.

485
00:25:48.460 --> 00:25:50.554
I mean, we've seen net inflows.

486
00:25:50.555 --> 00:25:53.819
They mentioned net inflows of that amount
is £4.3 billion.

487
00:25:54.250 --> 00:25:57.933
And market and currency movement was 2.6
billion pounds.

488
00:25:57.934 --> 00:26:04.783
So very, very good to see a company like a
wealth asset management company like

489
00:26:04.783 --> 00:26:05.061
Walter,

490
00:26:05.061 --> 00:26:07.205
you know, growing, attracting new assets.

491
00:26:07.541 --> 00:26:11.009
So, yeah, I think the market just expected
more.

492
00:26:11.900 --> 00:26:13.744
I just think market expected more.

493
00:26:13.745 --> 00:26:19.369
Well, you know quite a bit about it,
despite the fact that you don't hold the

494
00:26:19.369 --> 00:26:21.369
share and you sound as though you don't
want to hold the share.

495
00:26:21.369 --> 00:26:23.119
So, therefore, you can have a look at it,
at this question rather.

496
00:26:24.175 --> 00:26:26.736
And help me out from a distance, if you
want.

497
00:26:27.098 --> 00:26:27.900
What about the name?

498
00:26:27.920 --> 00:26:29.119
Where does the name come from?

499
00:26:29.361 --> 00:26:30.119
What does that mean?

500
00:26:31.260 --> 00:26:32.642
What does quilter mean?

501
00:26:34.041 --> 00:26:35.322
Is it a thing that I'm missing?

502
00:26:36.010 --> 00:26:37.307
Is it an in-joke somewhere?

503
00:26:37.807 --> 00:26:38.507
What is it?

504
00:26:39.807 --> 00:26:44.494
Yeah, it's, well, what is, but are you
going to tell people what 91 means first?

505
00:26:44.619 --> 00:26:45.319
Because that's...

506
00:26:45.319 --> 00:26:46.494
Yes, I know what 91 means.

507
00:26:46.510 --> 00:26:48.135
That's the year the company was formed.

508
00:26:48.525 --> 00:26:52.822
That's the year that Hendrik de Duy sat
down with a couple of computers and a

509
00:26:52.822 --> 00:26:54.822
couple of phones.

510
00:26:54.822 --> 00:26:58.364
and maybe a couple of staff and started
building a legendary company.

511
00:26:59.004 --> 00:27:00.606
That's why it's called 91.

512
00:27:00.607 --> 00:27:01.825
Why is Quilter called Quilter?

513
00:27:03.004 --> 00:27:03.926
I've got no idea.

514
00:27:04.090 --> 00:27:07.676
I've actually, you know, while you were
talking about 91,

515
00:27:07.677 --> 00:27:12.879
I thought we'll get some insights and what
it actually means.

516
00:27:12.911 --> 00:27:13.911
But no.

517
00:27:14.442 --> 00:27:16.239
1991, that's what it means.

518
00:27:16.817 --> 00:27:18.411
Skulko, let's forget about Quilter.

519
00:27:18.412 --> 00:27:19.129
No, no, no, I'm talking about.

520
00:27:19.218 --> 00:27:26.084
quarter i always see right right 91 i know
91 i know 91 i just wanted you to explain

521
00:27:26.084 --> 00:27:28.084
to a few people because that's

522
00:27:28.084 --> 00:27:33.014
how the name 91 ellen gray is easy that's
that's but what what where where does the

523
00:27:33.014 --> 00:27:33.090
name quarter

524
00:27:33.090 --> 00:27:38.475
came come from so yeah if anybody knows
please yes please contact skulk no

525
00:27:38.522 --> 00:27:45.116
no no don't contact us just um put it on
strictly business uh either x or yes

526
00:27:45.241 --> 00:27:47.303
that would be nice.

527
00:27:47.366 --> 00:27:48.066
LinkedIn.

528
00:27:48.066 --> 00:27:48.558
Give us the answer.

529
00:27:48.558 --> 00:27:49.239
Give us the answer.

530
00:27:49.239 --> 00:27:50.560
Where does the name Kota come from?

531
00:27:50.861 --> 00:27:51.561
Good idea.

532
00:27:51.561 --> 00:27:53.943
I'm going to give you the top five major
moves from my screen now.

533
00:27:54.064 --> 00:27:56.685
DRD Gold on the upside by 3.6%.

534
00:27:56.748 --> 00:27:57.865
MTN up three and a third.

535
00:27:58.326 --> 00:28:01.631
Anglo Gold, another gold company, 3.1%
higher.

536
00:28:01.732 --> 00:28:03.115
Italtal up two and two thirds.

537
00:28:03.154 --> 00:28:05.677
Sun International up 2.6% downside.

538
00:28:06.474 --> 00:28:09.537
The aforementioned Glencore down 5.8%.

539
00:28:09.599 --> 00:28:11.334
Pick and Pay down 4.4%.

540
00:28:11.365 --> 00:28:13.365
Aspen two and a quarter percent in the
red.

541
00:28:13.443 --> 00:28:14.959
Vukile down 2.1%.

542
00:28:15.084 --> 00:28:16.365
And We Buy Cars.

543
00:28:16.758 --> 00:28:23.658
down 2.1 as well scout any other movers
that caught your eye no i think the one on

544
00:28:23.658 --> 00:28:25.658
the upside is

545
00:28:25.658 --> 00:28:30.600
maybe a little bit too small but the
fourth best performing company today was

546
00:28:30.600 --> 00:28:32.600
was after a map matt and yeah we've been
talking about

547
00:28:32.600 --> 00:28:34.084
and been been holding out from matt
because they struggled with this their

548
00:28:34.303 --> 00:28:41.287
iron ore or side um also they they um
cement business not doing as well as bpc

549
00:28:41.287 --> 00:28:43.287
is done

550
00:28:43.287 --> 00:28:46.967
but they've mentioned that how they focus
i still believe that aftermath it's a

551
00:28:46.967 --> 00:28:48.967
quality management.

552
00:28:48.967 --> 00:28:49.850
It's a great little company, isn't it?

553
00:28:49.851 --> 00:28:50.551
Yeah, yeah.

554
00:28:50.551 --> 00:28:52.614
I'm not an older, so that's an easy
conversation for me.

555
00:28:53.934 --> 00:28:59.461
And we had this conversation, I think, a
few weeks ago when it was trading, I

556
00:28:59.461 --> 00:29:01.461
think, 40 odd-ranked levels.

557
00:29:01.461 --> 00:29:01.563
And it's still trading there.

558
00:29:02.102 --> 00:29:05.141
But, I mean, today, 3% rise.

559
00:29:06.391 --> 00:29:07.688
Maybe forming a bit of a base there.

560
00:29:08.032 --> 00:29:09.094
Maybe forming a bit of a base.

561
00:29:09.125 --> 00:29:10.172
We'll keep an eye on that one.

562
00:29:10.204 --> 00:29:12.204
Give us the indices, if you would, Scout.

563
00:29:12.235 --> 00:29:15.610
Closing indices on the JSC, plus, of
course, the all-important volume.

564
00:29:16.690 --> 00:29:23.495
So the JSE today closed at just over
100,000 points, 100,153 points.

565
00:29:23.496 --> 00:29:25.738
That's up 0.48%.

566
00:29:26.081 --> 00:29:29.066
As mentioned earlier, resource index
having a great time.

567
00:29:29.081 --> 00:29:33.863
I mean, the gold count is really having a
wonderful, wonderful time.

568
00:29:34.847 --> 00:29:37.363
Today closed up 1.34%.

569
00:29:37.364 --> 00:29:43.019
Industrial index up 0.34%, while the
financial index was up 0.

570
00:29:43.594 --> 00:29:44.415
1.9%.

571
00:29:44.416 --> 00:29:50.842
I'm going to mention the SA Property
because they've been one of the best

572
00:29:50.842 --> 00:29:52.842
performers in

573
00:29:52.842 --> 00:29:56.284
July. Today, taking a bit of a breather,
down 0.18%.

574
00:29:56.307 --> 00:30:02.448
When we look at the volume traded, I
started off and say, well, we should be

575
00:30:02.448 --> 00:30:04.448
around about the $20 billion mark.

576
00:30:04.448 --> 00:30:06.995
We ended the day just short, $23 billion
value traded through the JSC.

577
00:30:07.338 --> 00:30:08.073
Very good, Scott.

578
00:30:08.120 --> 00:30:09.823
Thank you so much for your insight, as
always.

579
00:30:09.838 --> 00:30:12.963
Scott Lowe is a Portfolio Manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak.

580
00:30:13.158 --> 00:30:15.430
Cape Town, and that was the 5 o'clock
shadow.

581
00:30:16.250 --> 00:30:23.198
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

582
00:30:23.198 --> 00:30:25.198
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

583
00:30:25.198 --> 00:30:26.944
position or opinion of any other agency,
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584
00:30:27.257 --> 00:30:31.905
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

585
00:30:32.366 --> 00:30:39.351
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

586
00:30:39.351 --> 00:30:41.351
entity other than the speaker or the
author

587
00:30:41.351 --> 00:30:45.538
and since we are critically thinking human
beings these views are always subject to

588
00:30:45.538 --> 00:30:47.538
change, revision,

589
00:30:47.538 --> 00:30:47.664
and rethinking at any time.

590
00:30:47.966 --> 00:30:50.380
Please do not hold us to them in
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