WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:04.569 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.147 --> 00:00:09.015 The JFC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:09.015 --> 00:00:09.090 shadow. 4 00:00:09.090 --> 00:00:15.015 And as always on a Thursday, I speak to Viv Govender from Ranswiss and David 5 00:00:15.015 --> 00:00:17.015 Shapiro from 6 00:00:17.015 --> 00:00:21.640 Sassfin. Now, Viv, I've got to start with you because I was looking through LinkedIn 7 00:00:21.640 --> 00:00:23.640 around about two hours ago, 8 00:00:23.640 --> 00:00:24.827 and there was a post from a chap called Stuart Theobald. 9 00:00:25.468 --> 00:00:28.593 And Stuart Theobald works for a company beginning with a K. 10 00:00:29.448 --> 00:00:31.791 I think it begins with a K, but I can't pronounce it. 11 00:00:32.010 --> 00:00:33.351 I never remember it. 12 00:00:33.611 --> 00:00:36.853 And it was to do with an award ceremony that they were associated with. 13 00:00:37.256 --> 00:00:41.658 And you won the South Africa's Best Boutique Wealth Manager. 14 00:00:41.697 --> 00:00:43.002 So many congratulations. 15 00:00:43.064 --> 00:00:43.939 Rans Swiss, that is. 16 00:00:45.283 --> 00:00:45.983 That is. 17 00:00:45.983 --> 00:00:47.549 And it's the first time we've actually entered the competition. 18 00:00:47.550 --> 00:00:52.611 So it's doubly positive for us that we've won the prize. 19 00:00:52.627 --> 00:00:57.033 And we're focusing more towards wealth management than trading, which was the 20 00:00:57.033 --> 00:00:59.033 previous awards we were winning. 21 00:00:59.033 --> 00:00:59.450 So, yeah, it's quite good for the company, I think. 22 00:01:00.050 --> 00:01:01.812 First time out to be awarded so well. 23 00:01:02.234 --> 00:01:05.195 But, Lindsay, they always win awards and deservedly so. 24 00:01:05.554 --> 00:01:08.859 They're a very good team and you can hear it when Viv talks. 25 00:01:11.281 --> 00:01:12.741 His wisdom comes through. 26 00:01:13.366 --> 00:01:19.437 And I think it's remarkable that, you know, for those people who listen to the 27 00:01:19.437 --> 00:01:21.437 show, genuinely, 28 00:01:21.437 --> 00:01:21.577 I think you learn an enormous amount. 29 00:01:21.624 --> 00:01:24.937 I'm not quite sure about from you and me, but certainly from Viv. 30 00:01:26.832 --> 00:01:28.993 Well, anyway, many congratulations, Viv. 31 00:01:28.994 --> 00:01:31.812 I mean it in the greatest sincerity. 32 00:01:33.034 --> 00:01:33.734 Well done. 33 00:01:33.734 --> 00:01:34.293 Fantastic. 34 00:01:34.293 --> 00:01:38.456 No, it's an honour, and I hope that you get even more business out of it. 35 00:01:39.331 --> 00:01:41.378 I think on that note, David, we should start with you. 36 00:01:41.394 --> 00:01:44.511 And you haven't won any awards, and I can't remember you winning any awards. 37 00:01:44.542 --> 00:01:47.558 But then again, I don't really follow the awards circuit, David. 38 00:01:47.823 --> 00:01:49.339 But you're always on the podium with me. 39 00:01:49.542 --> 00:01:52.214 So well done. 40 00:01:52.480 --> 00:01:53.823 Okay, we've got so much to talk about. 41 00:01:53.855 --> 00:01:54.683 Okay, let's start with... 42 00:01:55.601 --> 00:01:56.301 banks. 43 00:01:56.301 --> 00:01:57.302 We've had the Fed unchanged. 44 00:01:57.323 --> 00:01:59.022 We've had the Bank of Japan unchanged. 45 00:01:59.046 --> 00:02:02.726 We've had the South African Reserve Bank cutting by a quarter of a percent. 46 00:02:02.749 --> 00:02:06.608 Then we got the August the 1st tariff deadline looming. 47 00:02:07.194 --> 00:02:07.894 When is that? 48 00:02:07.894 --> 00:02:08.757 I think it's tomorrow, isn't it? 49 00:02:08.758 --> 00:02:14.335 Yeah, we've got a tariff deadline tomorrow, August the 1st. We've got 50 00:02:14.335 --> 00:02:16.335 Trump's economy soars. 51 00:02:16.335 --> 00:02:18.335 That was the headline on Fox News. 52 00:02:18.335 --> 00:02:20.741 Trump's economy soars because the US GDP this week came out at 3%, 53 00:02:21.210 --> 00:02:24.054 but not quite so because it was an import story. 54 00:02:24.356 --> 00:02:28.922 And if you look below, it's around about 1.2%, actually, the real gain. 55 00:02:29.539 --> 00:02:30.344 But that's out the way. 56 00:02:30.383 --> 00:02:31.723 But we got the big one, David. 57 00:02:32.164 --> 00:02:36.070 And that was the mega numbers from Meta and Microsoft. 58 00:02:36.852 --> 00:02:38.711 David, you start with one of those, if you would. 59 00:02:39.930 --> 00:02:40.630 You know what? 60 00:02:41.258 --> 00:02:45.195 If you look at both of them, the one number that just stands out. 61 00:02:45.914 --> 00:02:48.524 Look, we can talk about the revenue numbers. 62 00:02:48.977 --> 00:02:51.289 You know, you can talk about the earnings numbers. 63 00:02:51.742 --> 00:02:54.039 But the number that you look at that is just... 64 00:02:54.328 --> 00:03:01.196 astronomical is the amount they're spending on capex and uh i think we're 65 00:03:01.196 --> 00:03:03.196 going into i think microsoft 66 00:03:03.196 --> 00:03:07.544 i picked up that they will spend uh this year in their financial year whatever it 67 00:03:07.544 --> 00:03:09.544 is something like 80 68 00:03:09.544 --> 00:03:14.614 billion dollars you know and meta in the region of what i think 65 to 70 odd i 69 00:03:14.614 --> 00:03:16.614 can't remember the exact 70 00:03:16.614 --> 00:03:21.349 numbers i mean these are enormous amounts of money that they're spending developing 71 00:03:21.349 --> 00:03:23.349 their business, you know, 72 00:03:23.349 --> 00:03:25.349 investing in CapEx. 73 00:03:25.349 --> 00:03:27.349 And you must remember the multiple. 74 00:03:27.349 --> 00:03:30.839 buyer effect of something like that through an economy i mean just you can 75 00:03:30.839 --> 00:03:32.839 convert it to pounds you can just convert it into 76 00:03:32.839 --> 00:03:37.163 rand which is quite astonishing and where they've got the confidence to do so and i 77 00:03:37.163 --> 00:03:37.504 think 78 00:03:38.007 --> 00:03:44.858 uh continue to what what what also you pick up is that it's starting to give 79 00:03:44.858 --> 00:03:46.858 results in other words uh 80 00:03:46.858 --> 00:03:51.921 you know people are using the cloud they're using the cloud services a a lot 81 00:03:51.921 --> 00:03:53.921 more and they're also seeing the benefits of ai you know 82 00:03:53.921 --> 00:03:55.921 ai is pushing this along. 83 00:03:55.921 --> 00:03:56.708 So we've been talking about it, but it's actually working. 84 00:03:56.829 --> 00:04:00.532 So these are astonishing results and astonishing numbers. 85 00:04:00.829 --> 00:04:05.735 And they're the only companies that can afford to spend that kind of money, you 86 00:04:05.735 --> 00:04:06.177 know, 87 00:04:06.177 --> 00:04:08.157 without having to go to a bank and take on risk. 88 00:04:08.642 --> 00:04:10.563 So a remarkable story. 89 00:04:10.782 --> 00:04:15.188 Do you own either of those stocks or both, David, for your clients? 90 00:04:15.485 --> 00:04:17.423 Sorry, I missed out Meta, that's all. 91 00:04:18.110 --> 00:04:20.438 And it was a personal dislike of Zuckerberg that... 92 00:04:20.896 --> 00:04:22.438 that kept me on the side. 93 00:04:23.419 --> 00:04:24.119 High equity, yeah. 94 00:04:24.119 --> 00:04:24.460 You know what I mean? 95 00:04:24.460 --> 00:04:26.941 It wasn't that I didn't like what he was doing. 96 00:04:27.663 --> 00:04:30.187 And, you know, Facebook has made a big comeback. 97 00:04:31.085 --> 00:04:33.812 It's no longer a family photo album. 98 00:04:33.813 --> 00:04:35.851 You know, old ladies looking at their grandchildren. 99 00:04:36.749 --> 00:04:38.593 It's really becoming a tool now. 100 00:04:38.827 --> 00:04:40.749 You know, Instagram and so on. 101 00:04:41.108 --> 00:04:44.343 But I've certainly held Microsoft for a long time. 102 00:04:44.405 --> 00:04:46.405 But, yeah, I can kick myself for... 103 00:04:46.936 --> 00:04:53.849 you know not not going into meta when it just became apparent that he was going to 104 00:04:53.849 --> 00:04:55.849 do well viv over to you now if you don't mind me 105 00:04:55.849 --> 00:04:58.493 asking you don't have to answer but do your clients own one or both of those 106 00:04:58.493 --> 00:04:58.538 stocks 107 00:05:00.523 --> 00:05:02.465 They were founding stocks in my AI portfolio. 108 00:05:03.887 --> 00:05:10.856 So we bought Meta earlier than that because when Meta went down significantly 109 00:05:10.856 --> 00:05:12.856 a couple 110 00:05:12.856 --> 00:05:13.215 of years ago, it was entirely self-inflicted. 111 00:05:13.216 --> 00:05:13.916 It was one of the most... 112 00:05:14.153 --> 00:05:16.700 I mean, you talk about Tesla being affected negatively by Musk. 113 00:05:17.434 --> 00:05:21.590 That Meta fall was entirely Zuckerberg being crazed by the Metaverse. 114 00:05:21.591 --> 00:05:22.291 You remember that? 115 00:05:22.371 --> 00:05:23.071 Yes, I do. 116 00:05:23.071 --> 00:05:24.293 And so the share price come down dramatically. 117 00:05:24.309 --> 00:05:25.793 I think it's up over six times since then. 118 00:05:26.434 --> 00:05:29.075 But Microsoft we bought and Meta we bought when the AI... 119 00:05:29.863 --> 00:05:30.763 portfolio was created. 120 00:05:31.384 --> 00:05:33.646 There were a couple of stocks that were fundamental to it. 121 00:05:34.529 --> 00:05:35.310 And we kept most of them. 122 00:05:35.689 --> 00:05:41.974 The only one I think we've really got rid of, you know, that's all the fundamental 123 00:05:41.974 --> 00:05:43.974 stocks, is looking to get rid of Apple, unfortunately, because, you know, 124 00:05:43.974 --> 00:05:44.654 see what you want about founder culture. 125 00:05:45.333 --> 00:05:51.646 Tim Cook does not seem to have the foresight or the, you know, the ability to 126 00:05:51.646 --> 00:05:53.646 go and spend this kind of money. 127 00:05:53.646 --> 00:05:55.646 Apple has the money as well. 128 00:05:55.646 --> 00:05:59.036 But you need to either have somebody like, you know, Mark Zuckerberg in charge, or 129 00:05:59.036 --> 00:06:01.036 somebody that's really recreated the business like Sachin Nadella. 130 00:06:01.036 --> 00:06:02.081 in order to basically make this kind of bet. 131 00:06:02.802 --> 00:06:04.105 And unfortunately, Tim Cook can't. 132 00:06:04.745 --> 00:06:09.167 But speaking of these numbers here, to put into perspective, and this was amazing, 133 00:06:09.651 --> 00:06:16.440 what Microsoft is spending in a given calendar year is more than any country in 134 00:06:16.440 --> 00:06:18.440 history has ever spent on a single infrastructure project. 135 00:06:18.440 --> 00:06:20.440 I don't mean like building one bridge. 136 00:06:20.440 --> 00:06:24.706 I mean like building like the National Highway Network or building the National 137 00:06:24.706 --> 00:06:26.706 Electricity Grid for China or for the US, 138 00:06:26.706 --> 00:06:28.644 or basically more than the US has ever spent in a single year. 139 00:06:29.006 --> 00:06:35.993 to go to space even counting the the massive amounts they were spending to go 140 00:06:35.993 --> 00:06:37.993 to the moon back in the 1960s that's one company's spend 141 00:06:37.993 --> 00:06:43.438 and the crazy thing about this is that you know mark zuckerberg is spending this 142 00:06:43.438 --> 00:06:45.438 money not just on uh infrastructure but also on people he's 143 00:06:45.438 --> 00:06:49.852 offering packages up to a billion dollars for multi uh uh you know a deal so 144 00:06:50.024 --> 00:06:56.540 imagine making a billion dollars as a salary over multiple years you know 145 00:06:56.540 --> 00:06:58.540 obviously it's paid off from what you're making Maybe 100 million a year, 146 00:06:58.540 --> 00:07:00.540 whatever it may be. 147 00:07:00.540 --> 00:07:02.540 And the crazier part is this. 148 00:07:02.540 --> 00:07:04.540 People are saying no. 149 00:07:04.540 --> 00:07:07.490 How are people saying no to becoming a billionaire on a salary? 150 00:07:08.091 --> 00:07:08.791 We think about it. 151 00:07:08.791 --> 00:07:12.216 We're talking about the kind of money that Michael Jordan has earned of a career. 152 00:07:12.513 --> 00:07:13.810 LeBron James has earned of a career. 153 00:07:14.247 --> 00:07:20.107 And there are basically people working at places like OpenAI, at Anthropic, 154 00:07:20.263 --> 00:07:26.560 at I think Ilias' new company, Ilias at Sky, or Miros company as well, that are 155 00:07:26.560 --> 00:07:28.560 literally saying no to. 156 00:07:28.560 --> 00:07:29.774 hundreds of millions of dollars, you know, in terms of salary. 157 00:07:30.373 --> 00:07:35.375 And the only thing I can imagine here is that these people are either totally 158 00:07:35.375 --> 00:07:37.375 brainwashed by their leaders, 159 00:07:37.375 --> 00:07:39.282 or they are so confident that their company is about to hit 160 00:07:39.703 --> 00:07:46.571 AGI, that they think that even a billion dollar salary doesn't compare to the 161 00:07:46.571 --> 00:07:48.571 upside of being involved in the company that gets 162 00:07:48.571 --> 00:07:50.571 to AGI first. 163 00:07:50.571 --> 00:07:51.919 Gosh, quite a few stats that you packed in there and quite a few things to think 164 00:07:51.919 --> 00:07:52.158 about. 165 00:07:52.158 --> 00:07:54.802 The infrastructure story really got me right from the beginning. 166 00:07:54.919 --> 00:07:57.723 Viv, I'll come back down to earth now on AI. 167 00:07:58.442 --> 00:08:00.466 That's one company. 168 00:08:00.887 --> 00:08:03.450 Yeah, we'll come to the other companies in a moment, David. 169 00:08:03.591 --> 00:08:07.708 I just want to go to both of you cap in hand. 170 00:08:07.709 --> 00:08:10.473 And I've got my tail between my legs as I say this. 171 00:08:11.270 --> 00:08:15.067 I've started using AI and I used it this morning in a meeting with someone. 172 00:08:15.536 --> 00:08:17.145 and I I sir 173 00:08:18.047 --> 00:08:25.013 I used grok actually and I went into grok and asked it a question and it came up 174 00:08:25.013 --> 00:08:27.013 with the answer and I said to the person I was in 175 00:08:27.013 --> 00:08:31.903 the meeting with it a two-hour meeting longest meeting I've been in for about 176 00:08:31.903 --> 00:08:33.903 seven years and I said to her but in Germany this is 177 00:08:33.903 --> 00:08:38.520 how they do it why can't you do it yours this country is as rich as Germany if not 178 00:08:38.520 --> 00:08:40.520 richer now and I think you should allocate your money 179 00:08:40.520 --> 00:08:44.583 a little bit more expansively if you like and she said oh I didn't know that. 180 00:08:44.663 --> 00:08:45.864 And I said, well, there you are. 181 00:08:46.305 --> 00:08:47.065 Have a think about it. 182 00:08:47.245 --> 00:08:48.387 But that was AI. 183 00:08:48.727 --> 00:08:50.227 That would never have happened before. 184 00:08:50.688 --> 00:08:53.212 And as I say, I take my hat off to you two. 185 00:08:53.548 --> 00:08:55.930 I can't believe what a useful tool it is. 186 00:08:55.977 --> 00:08:57.259 David, you were saying something. 187 00:08:57.938 --> 00:08:58.638 No, no. 188 00:08:59.618 --> 00:09:06.204 What I wanted to say is that Viv mentioned, you know, that Meta's paying 189 00:09:06.204 --> 00:09:06.327 more, 190 00:09:06.501 --> 00:09:09.407 sorry, spending more on infrastructure than any country. 191 00:09:09.704 --> 00:09:10.610 But that's one company. 192 00:09:11.391 --> 00:09:13.235 Now you go into Microsoft as well. 193 00:09:13.610 --> 00:09:18.834 and you go into Amazon and you add up the amount of money that's going into this, 194 00:09:19.197 --> 00:09:20.756 how can anybody compete? 195 00:09:21.076 --> 00:09:23.857 You know, how can any other country compete? 196 00:09:23.896 --> 00:09:28.506 And when I say country, I'm talking about the private enterprises within those 197 00:09:28.506 --> 00:09:30.506 countries. 198 00:09:30.506 --> 00:09:35.724 How can South Africa ever compete with this absolute power of America and 199 00:09:35.724 --> 00:09:35.831 America's 200 00:09:35.831 --> 00:09:39.021 spend and what this means to them as leaders? 201 00:09:39.022 --> 00:09:40.693 You know, we talk about exceptionalism. 202 00:09:40.756 --> 00:09:41.881 I'm not going to use that word. 203 00:09:42.198 --> 00:09:47.485 I'm just saying that these are individuals making these decisions, very, very brave 204 00:09:47.485 --> 00:09:49.485 decisions, 205 00:09:49.485 --> 00:09:50.270 and it's starting to pay dividends. 206 00:09:50.271 --> 00:09:54.614 So, I mean, when you look at the U.S., you know, just give me an equivalent in… 207 00:09:56.078 --> 00:09:59.221 in the UK or in Europe or anything like that. 208 00:09:59.580 --> 00:10:01.123 There's nothing that can compare. 209 00:10:01.662 --> 00:10:03.807 So we're going to see more. 210 00:10:04.166 --> 00:10:05.447 We'll see more from NVIDIA. 211 00:10:05.549 --> 00:10:08.650 We'll see more from the other businesses as well. 212 00:10:10.291 --> 00:10:13.471 So it's quite incredible. 213 00:10:13.502 --> 00:10:19.439 And I think looking at what Trump, sorry, what Powell did yesterday, 214 00:10:19.440 --> 00:10:25.033 I don't want to bring it in in the big discussion yet, but I mean, this area of 215 00:10:25.033 --> 00:10:27.033 the market still remains. 216 00:10:27.033 --> 00:10:32.349 the major driver of uh you know of gains on the market or of interest on the market 217 00:10:32.349 --> 00:10:34.349 you know it's 218 00:10:34.349 --> 00:10:38.455 still way ahead of anything else that we're seeing do you think that uh and viv 219 00:10:38.455 --> 00:10:40.455 i'll throw this one at you do you think that 220 00:10:40.455 --> 00:10:44.580 the the sort of stocks that that you two have been banging on about so correctly 221 00:10:44.580 --> 00:10:46.580 for so 222 00:10:46.580 --> 00:10:47.455 long do you think they're recession proof do you think they 223 00:10:47.595 --> 00:10:54.142 are in a complete bubble they've almost got like the trump's golden dome 224 00:10:54.142 --> 00:10:56.142 protecting them from 225 00:10:56.142 --> 00:10:59.403 anything that the economy can throw at them, apart from a little blip on a chart, 226 00:10:59.403 --> 00:10:59.463 Viv? 227 00:11:00.001 --> 00:11:04.485 Look, I mean, if it is smaller, you would say, yes, it's possible for the policy to 228 00:11:04.485 --> 00:11:04.623 protect it. 229 00:11:04.860 --> 00:11:11.829 The amounts of money that Microsoft, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and so on are 230 00:11:11.829 --> 00:11:13.829 spending here are so ginormous that, 231 00:11:13.829 --> 00:11:18.423 I mean, these companies on their own are basically risking more than was at risk in 232 00:11:18.423 --> 00:11:18.560 like, you know, 233 00:11:19.267 --> 00:11:21.282 in like major crises in the past, if you know what I mean. 234 00:11:21.813 --> 00:11:23.720 You know, hundreds of billions of dollars at risk. 235 00:11:24.121 --> 00:11:30.761 you know by individual companies that rivals like the the great depression the 236 00:11:30.761 --> 00:11:32.761 great recession sorry the great financial 237 00:11:32.761 --> 00:11:37.683 crisis uh for some countries uh so i'm saying to you that what this play is the 238 00:11:37.683 --> 00:11:39.683 risk here is that this doesn't work 239 00:11:39.683 --> 00:11:42.987 if ai in say two or three years time turns out to be a damn squib uh and 240 00:11:43.019 --> 00:11:49.909 doesn't really start boosting global gdp significantly and the calculation you must 241 00:11:49.909 --> 00:11:51.909 keep in mind is this roughly a company like microsoft can get 242 00:11:51.909 --> 00:11:53.753 maybe five percent of the total GDP benefit. 243 00:11:53.909 --> 00:11:54.769 It divides the world. 244 00:11:55.170 --> 00:12:01.569 So if Microsoft is spending, say, $100 billion, let us say as a guesstimate, it 245 00:12:01.569 --> 00:12:03.569 needs to basically cause 246 00:12:03.569 --> 00:12:09.112 $2 trillion worth of GDP growth in the world for Microsoft to get back the return 247 00:12:09.112 --> 00:12:11.112 to justify $100 248 00:12:11.112 --> 00:12:13.112 billion spent. 249 00:12:13.112 --> 00:12:15.112 Okay? 250 00:12:15.112 --> 00:12:17.112 $2 trillion is like 2% of global GDP. 251 00:12:17.112 --> 00:12:19.175 So Microsoft's $100 billion spend needs to translate into a 2% jump up in global GDP. 252 00:12:19.800 --> 00:12:21.815 Add that for Meta, add that for Amazon, and so on. 253 00:12:22.261 --> 00:12:28.747 And these companies basically need to result in the boosting of global GDP by 254 00:12:29.149 --> 00:12:30.427 maybe 5% a year. 255 00:12:31.989 --> 00:12:33.895 And that's the kind of impact that you have to see. 256 00:12:34.270 --> 00:12:40.739 If all we get from AI is as much benefit to the world as the internet, it's a total 257 00:12:40.739 --> 00:12:42.739 disaster. 258 00:12:42.739 --> 00:12:44.739 These guys are massively overspent. 259 00:12:44.739 --> 00:12:47.786 And Sachin Dutta and Mark Zuckerberg will go down as some of the greatest destroyers 260 00:12:47.786 --> 00:12:49.786 of capital in history. 261 00:12:49.786 --> 00:12:50.083 That's what we need to have happen, yes. 262 00:12:50.305 --> 00:12:51.987 It can't be like, you know, the internet. 263 00:12:52.027 --> 00:12:58.709 This needs to be like electricity, but electricity not in like multiple decades, 264 00:12:58.709 --> 00:13:00.709 in a few years for it to basically work out. 265 00:13:00.709 --> 00:13:02.709 Gosh, and 266 00:13:02.709 --> 00:13:07.897 David Shapiro will be telling us stories that don't involve sad stories about 267 00:13:07.897 --> 00:13:07.956 football. 268 00:13:07.956 --> 00:13:09.381 There'll be sad stories about Tommy Elk. 269 00:13:09.709 --> 00:13:10.409 Sorry, David. 270 00:13:10.409 --> 00:13:13.022 The point is that, you know, Viv's right. 271 00:13:13.053 --> 00:13:17.288 We don't really know what the outcome is, but at least they're going out. 272 00:13:17.997 --> 00:13:20.318 And it's like the railways. 273 00:13:20.418 --> 00:13:26.636 Can you imagine those chaps who took the risk by kind of putting these steel 274 00:13:26.636 --> 00:13:28.636 boulders or, you know, 275 00:13:28.636 --> 00:13:30.199 building railways across the American prairies and so on? 276 00:13:30.597 --> 00:13:32.261 They never knew what it was going to do. 277 00:13:32.840 --> 00:13:35.965 But the impact was absolutely remarkable. 278 00:13:35.996 --> 00:13:38.465 And, you know, I haven't thought about it yet. 279 00:13:38.496 --> 00:13:43.777 But, I mean, the fact that they were able to get people there, what the railways did 280 00:13:43.777 --> 00:13:45.777 to the U.S. 281 00:13:45.777 --> 00:13:47.777 economy was quite remarkable. 282 00:13:47.777 --> 00:13:49.777 This, in a way, is... 283 00:13:49.777 --> 00:13:51.777 the same kind of thing. 284 00:13:51.777 --> 00:13:53.777 They're laying out the infrastructure. 285 00:13:53.777 --> 00:13:55.777 It's up to you, Mr. 286 00:13:55.777 --> 00:13:57.977 Williams, to use it and to understand how it's going to help your business. 287 00:13:58.016 --> 00:14:01.438 For the meantime, it's starting to give returns. 288 00:14:01.758 --> 00:14:03.406 It's starting to look very interesting. 289 00:14:03.781 --> 00:14:06.891 But I think it's beyond us using it. 290 00:14:06.906 --> 00:14:11.188 It's up to the medical profession, the legal profession, the engineering, 291 00:14:11.484 --> 00:14:14.172 everything like that to actually make use of it. 292 00:14:14.785 --> 00:14:18.166 I know Viv scared the hell out of us last week or something. 293 00:14:19.084 --> 00:14:25.006 All the people are going to, how many people are going to be unemployed, you 294 00:14:25.006 --> 00:14:27.006 know, and will have to be helped. 295 00:14:27.006 --> 00:14:28.170 Yeah, look, at this stage, I can't think that way. 296 00:14:28.186 --> 00:14:29.452 You know, I'm not going to do the numbers. 297 00:14:29.491 --> 00:14:34.616 But what I am going to say, listen, this is, for the meantime, it's showing 298 00:14:34.616 --> 00:14:36.616 results. 299 00:14:36.616 --> 00:14:40.772 And they are seeing some incredible returns on whatever investment they have 300 00:14:40.772 --> 00:14:42.772 made up to now. 301 00:14:42.772 --> 00:14:44.345 So what we're witnessing here, gentlemen, is history. 302 00:14:44.566 --> 00:14:46.868 You spoke about the railways, David. 303 00:14:46.908 --> 00:14:53.716 If you look at the way that Rockefeller bet the farm on refineries and bought out 304 00:14:53.716 --> 00:14:55.716 everybody and went heavily into debt, 305 00:14:55.716 --> 00:14:58.513 and that did so well, and look what petroleum did to the world. 306 00:14:58.826 --> 00:15:02.544 But, yeah, it is a historic, historic time. 307 00:15:02.545 --> 00:15:04.513 And the thing is it's happening so fast. 308 00:15:04.591 --> 00:15:08.294 When will we know if and when it's been a success or not? 309 00:15:08.529 --> 00:15:10.544 You talk about the contribution to GDP. 310 00:15:10.959 --> 00:15:14.563 At what point do you say to yourself, wait a second, I don't like these numbers? 311 00:15:15.422 --> 00:15:20.969 Well, just to mention David's thing, the railways worked out eventually, but a lot 312 00:15:20.969 --> 00:15:22.969 of the companies that basically got into the railways, 313 00:15:22.969 --> 00:15:23.532 like a quarter of them went bankrupt, you know, 314 00:15:23.852 --> 00:15:30.462 or less well consolidated and such at like significant like discounts, like the 315 00:15:30.462 --> 00:15:32.462 value, you know, 316 00:15:32.462 --> 00:15:34.462 in the 19th century in the US. 317 00:15:34.462 --> 00:15:35.383 So it is a historical fact that if it's compared to the railways, 318 00:15:35.384 --> 00:15:40.952 it's going to be a disaster for some of these It's just been working out. 319 00:15:41.673 --> 00:15:46.639 By 2030, the way these guys are ramping up right now, by 2030, which is the next five 320 00:15:46.639 --> 00:15:46.776 years, 321 00:15:47.439 --> 00:15:53.623 it's going to be impossible to increase scale at the way they increased it over 322 00:15:53.623 --> 00:15:55.623 the last five years, just because of the laws of physics. 323 00:15:55.623 --> 00:15:57.623 We just don't have the energy. 324 00:15:57.623 --> 00:16:00.576 We don't have the infrastructure to keep on increasing computing power energy by 325 00:16:00.576 --> 00:16:02.576 2030. 326 00:16:02.576 --> 00:16:07.982 Now, by 2030, they will have spent so many hundreds of billions of dollars that you 327 00:16:07.982 --> 00:16:09.982 need to start seeing. 328 00:16:09.982 --> 00:16:11.982 U.S. 329 00:16:11.982 --> 00:16:13.982 GDP growing at 5%, 6%, 7%. 330 00:16:13.982 --> 00:16:15.982 You need to start seeing global GDP. 331 00:16:15.982 --> 00:16:17.475 You need to see 2% or 3% added onto global GDP within five years' time. 332 00:16:18.600 --> 00:16:22.842 At the same time, you would need to start seeing job losses, unfortunately. 333 00:16:22.881 --> 00:16:25.303 That has to occur because that's what is happening here. 334 00:16:25.647 --> 00:16:32.397 We already are seeing, you know, at places like Microsoft and so on, they did a 335 00:16:32.397 --> 00:16:34.397 report recently where they highlighted the 40 jobs that are most vulnerable. 336 00:16:34.397 --> 00:16:35.647 Unfortunately, David and I are among them, financial advisors. 337 00:16:36.252 --> 00:16:43.025 uh you know analysts among the most uh vulnerable to this yeah and and i think 338 00:16:43.025 --> 00:16:45.025 they had a job the least vulnerable were things 339 00:16:45.025 --> 00:16:49.935 like bombers and massage therapists and so on so at least be a dvd to go to start 340 00:16:49.935 --> 00:16:51.935 retraining and 341 00:16:51.935 --> 00:16:54.116 nail nail bars as well we get a robot to do that I tell you what, 342 00:16:55.137 --> 00:16:59.342 nail bars are the only shops that are opening in the UK high street. 343 00:16:59.343 --> 00:17:03.503 So maybe you could do some, I don't know, get a nail course or something, David. 344 00:17:03.504 --> 00:17:09.088 I think nail technicians can be replaced as well, because I've seen machines that 345 00:17:09.088 --> 00:17:11.088 can print now nails. 346 00:17:11.088 --> 00:17:11.174 So you'd be amazed. 347 00:17:11.612 --> 00:17:17.878 But yeah, I think this is a case of the next five years either have to be the most 348 00:17:17.878 --> 00:17:19.878 unusual 349 00:17:19.878 --> 00:17:20.456 five years in all our lives, you know, including David's. 350 00:17:21.378 --> 00:17:22.078 Uh, or... 351 00:17:23.528 --> 00:17:29.713 We are looking at easily the greatest destruction of capital in history. 352 00:17:30.499 --> 00:17:33.702 The numbers here, we talk about the railroads, electricity, like this is 353 00:17:33.702 --> 00:17:33.879 comparable. 354 00:17:34.139 --> 00:17:35.842 This is only comparable as like an analogy. 355 00:17:36.124 --> 00:17:41.491 The amounts being spent here are vastly higher than were spent on electricity or 356 00:17:41.491 --> 00:17:43.491 the railroads in the past. 357 00:17:43.491 --> 00:17:43.569 There's nothing in the past that comes close to this. 358 00:17:43.570 --> 00:17:48.772 This is literally, there's never been anything like this in history, quite 359 00:17:48.772 --> 00:17:50.772 frankly, in terms of capital expenditure. 360 00:17:50.772 --> 00:17:50.834 Okay, moving on, gentlemen. 361 00:17:51.187 --> 00:17:53.650 David, it seems to be pick on David Day. 362 00:17:53.730 --> 00:17:57.591 So I'm going to pick on you for an analysis of what the Fed did last night. 363 00:17:57.712 --> 00:18:03.857 And they left interest rates unchanged, but there were a couple of dissenters 364 00:18:03.857 --> 00:18:05.857 within the Federal Open Market 365 00:18:05.857 --> 00:18:10.419 Committee. The reaction of the dollar has been to soar by about one and two thirds 366 00:18:10.419 --> 00:18:12.419 percent against the euro. 367 00:18:12.419 --> 00:18:15.185 It's put the rand way above 18 against the US dollar, of course. 368 00:18:15.857 --> 00:18:18.591 It's not so bad, again, on a trade weighted index basis. 369 00:18:18.951 --> 00:18:22.093 But that would have really pissed off Donald Trump, David. 370 00:18:22.695 --> 00:18:24.374 Yeah, I haven't heard him yet. 371 00:18:24.496 --> 00:18:25.196 I don't know. 372 00:18:25.316 --> 00:18:28.242 For some reason, he hasn't appeared on TV today. 373 00:18:28.640 --> 00:18:30.999 So I don't know where he's hiding, whether he's playing golf. 374 00:18:31.382 --> 00:18:33.624 But I thought he would come out with boxing gloves. 375 00:18:33.726 --> 00:18:35.960 In fact, I don't even think he'd want boxing gloves. 376 00:18:36.304 --> 00:18:38.445 He'd want to hit Powell with his bare fist. 377 00:18:39.445 --> 00:18:40.898 I think that's how furious he is. 378 00:18:40.945 --> 00:18:44.242 Because Powell actually didn't even mention September. 379 00:18:44.617 --> 00:18:47.023 He gave no indication of reducing rates. 380 00:18:47.320 --> 00:18:48.117 Look, that's back. 381 00:18:48.787 --> 00:18:53.414 by some of the data, by the GDP data which you mentioned, 382 00:18:53.433 --> 00:18:56.074 which you know and correctly said it was distorted. 383 00:18:56.394 --> 00:19:01.460 It wasn't correct because it included or there weren't imports as well. 384 00:19:01.499 --> 00:19:04.968 And if you know how GDP is calculated, 385 00:19:06.890 --> 00:19:10.328 you don't include anything that is not manufactured in yourself. 386 00:19:12.609 --> 00:19:15.437 So it's a distorted number. 387 00:19:17.151 --> 00:19:22.896 On the other hand, I just looked at the PMI now, even though it's below 50, 388 00:19:22.896 --> 00:19:24.896 Chicago PMI, 389 00:19:24.896 --> 00:19:26.896 it's well above where everybody thought. 390 00:19:26.896 --> 00:19:30.083 I'm sure the jobs numbers are going to be above what everybody's been expecting. 391 00:19:30.107 --> 00:19:31.028 So the U.S. 392 00:19:31.107 --> 00:19:36.747 economy is quite robust, but there are still areas of weakness, particularly 393 00:19:36.747 --> 00:19:38.747 housing. 394 00:19:38.747 --> 00:19:39.216 And I don't think confidence is that great. 395 00:19:39.622 --> 00:19:41.784 for people to take on massive risk. 396 00:19:42.685 --> 00:19:46.569 Lindsay, where I'm going to, and I keep saying it, is that we do need something. 397 00:19:47.491 --> 00:19:53.573 We got a little bit of a kicker today in South Africa, but I think the US just 398 00:19:53.573 --> 00:19:55.573 needs some kind of help. 399 00:19:55.573 --> 00:19:57.714 And I think that's where Trump is getting incredibly frustrated. 400 00:19:58.073 --> 00:20:03.042 And the more he gets frustrated, the more Powell digs his heels in and says, it's 401 00:20:03.042 --> 00:20:05.042 not going to happen. 402 00:20:05.042 --> 00:20:07.042 But there's a consequence. 403 00:20:07.042 --> 00:20:08.464 You can talk to Viv first, but there is a consequence that I'm seeing playing out 404 00:20:08.464 --> 00:20:08.851 here. 405 00:20:08.851 --> 00:20:09.955 which is quite important. 406 00:20:11.437 --> 00:20:12.738 No, no, carry on. 407 00:20:12.757 --> 00:20:15.640 If you want to roll, please tell us and we can come in afterwards. 408 00:20:16.503 --> 00:20:17.906 Okay, you know what's happened. 409 00:20:17.960 --> 00:20:20.007 Go have a look at the European market now. 410 00:20:20.702 --> 00:20:23.187 There's been a massive destruction and sell-off. 411 00:20:23.812 --> 00:20:26.773 And that's because US rates are getting stronger. 412 00:20:27.976 --> 00:20:30.913 And the dollar's getting stronger. 413 00:20:30.960 --> 00:20:31.741 Rates are going up. 414 00:20:32.116 --> 00:20:33.491 And it's drawing money in. 415 00:20:33.913 --> 00:20:35.273 The euro has gone weaker. 416 00:20:35.382 --> 00:20:40.108 And if you look at the European market at the moment, What drew my attention is I 417 00:20:40.108 --> 00:20:40.468 saw 418 00:20:40.569 --> 00:20:42.532 Ferraris down 10%. 419 00:20:42.649 --> 00:20:44.352 Yes, I know they missed on sales. 420 00:20:44.672 --> 00:20:45.895 It was a very slight miss. 421 00:20:46.036 --> 00:20:50.059 But above that is ABM down 11%. 422 00:20:50.622 --> 00:20:53.278 And I didn't think their numbers were that bad. 423 00:20:53.723 --> 00:20:56.918 Mondi down 11%, you know, and keep going. 424 00:20:56.950 --> 00:20:57.762 I'm trying to remember. 425 00:20:58.028 --> 00:21:00.153 Hermes down over 5%. 426 00:21:00.247 --> 00:21:03.606 So it's a big, big sell-off right across the board. 427 00:21:03.607 --> 00:21:04.856 Yeah, I've got the DAX down. 428 00:21:05.028 --> 00:21:06.075 I mean, these are... 429 00:21:06.490 --> 00:21:13.015 big numbers that you're talking about individual stocks the overall indices yeah 430 00:21:13.015 --> 00:21:15.015 they're down 0.7 percent for the dax and 431 00:21:15.015 --> 00:21:19.945 0.7 percent for the cat current and the ftse actually barely changed if my numbers 432 00:21:19.945 --> 00:21:21.945 are are correct but um they're 433 00:21:21.945 --> 00:21:26.671 about 15 minutes late but i see what you mean david it's uh it it's been all over 434 00:21:26.671 --> 00:21:28.671 the place the far east was down this 435 00:21:28.671 --> 00:21:33.031 morning the us futures were up because of meta and microsoft and here we are with 436 00:21:33.031 --> 00:21:35.031 europe down now so 437 00:21:35.031 --> 00:21:40.232 there's definitely some sort of geographical divergence isn't there today 438 00:21:40.232 --> 00:21:42.232 which is very interesting this is 439 00:21:42.232 --> 00:21:47.298 euro you know that's what i'm saying this is selling out of europe now remember when 440 00:21:47.298 --> 00:21:49.298 the dollar weakened everybody said you 441 00:21:49.298 --> 00:21:51.759 know let's buy europe this is the opposite taking place and 442 00:21:51.884 --> 00:21:58.150 i think some of the knocks that we're seeing are not really justified by by the 443 00:21:58.150 --> 00:22:00.150 earnings and i don't deserve this so 444 00:22:00.150 --> 00:22:01.869 um this is this is a shift you know this is like 445 00:22:02.358 --> 00:22:06.402 I would say like a structural shift out of Europe into the US. 446 00:22:06.403 --> 00:22:11.370 I've got the resources index of the JSC down 4.1% at the moment. 447 00:22:11.628 --> 00:22:12.347 That's a huge move. 448 00:22:12.410 --> 00:22:14.574 Viv, just very quickly on the South African Reserve Bank. 449 00:22:15.089 --> 00:22:17.894 Is Lesetra Kanyargo too conservative, do you think? 450 00:22:19.808 --> 00:22:25.527 Look, I have to say that, you know, there's some Zimbabwean governors that 451 00:22:25.527 --> 00:22:27.527 have done exceptionally. 452 00:22:27.527 --> 00:22:30.511 Jerome Powell, if you had to look at his situation a few years ago and say this is 453 00:22:30.511 --> 00:22:32.511 the result of it. 454 00:22:32.511 --> 00:22:33.329 Most economists have said this is an incredible result. 455 00:22:33.990 --> 00:22:39.033 Liseko Kaniako has been an incredible steward of Iran, and that's his main job. 456 00:22:39.658 --> 00:22:45.822 And yes, he may have been conservative, but understand that this is not the same 457 00:22:45.822 --> 00:22:47.822 kind of playing field as the 458 00:22:47.822 --> 00:22:47.869 Europeans or the Americans are playing with. 459 00:22:48.790 --> 00:22:49.806 Look at the example of Turkey. 460 00:22:50.290 --> 00:22:54.806 He gets this wrong, and Iran is at 30 and 40 very, very quickly. 461 00:22:55.306 --> 00:22:56.994 And this is a very dangerous thing. 462 00:22:57.665 --> 00:22:58.494 The cliff is... 463 00:22:58.958 --> 00:23:02.362 very steep once somebody loses confidence in an emerging market currency. 464 00:23:02.981 --> 00:23:03.981 Look at the Ghanaian CEDI. 465 00:23:04.083 --> 00:23:05.485 Look at the Turkish lira. 466 00:23:05.583 --> 00:23:07.466 Look at what happened in Brazil. 467 00:23:07.489 --> 00:23:08.411 Look at globally. 468 00:23:08.489 --> 00:23:10.153 There's many, many places where this has happened. 469 00:23:10.528 --> 00:23:12.450 And so, yes, he's been conservative. 470 00:23:12.950 --> 00:23:16.934 But like I said, the risk-reward payoff is not symmetrical here. 471 00:23:17.544 --> 00:23:19.356 You must be more conservative in his job. 472 00:23:19.403 --> 00:23:25.684 And he's done an excellent job, quite frankly, in controlling inflation and 473 00:23:25.684 --> 00:23:27.684 basically ensuring that the second one has a 474 00:23:27.684 --> 00:23:29.684 stable... 475 00:23:29.684 --> 00:23:31.684 while many of its peers has not. 476 00:23:31.684 --> 00:23:32.803 The reason South Africa is in the doldrums is nothing to do with the Reserve Bank. 477 00:23:33.103 --> 00:23:36.264 It's to do with our policies, our infrastructure, governance, a number of 478 00:23:36.264 --> 00:23:36.488 other things. 479 00:23:37.467 --> 00:23:39.889 In other words, the government rather than the Reserve Bank. 480 00:23:39.912 --> 00:23:40.990 The government is to blame. 481 00:23:40.991 --> 00:23:41.691 It's not that. 482 00:23:41.873 --> 00:23:43.451 Yeah. 483 00:23:43.452 --> 00:23:44.152 He's been good. 484 00:23:44.295 --> 00:23:44.995 Okay, good. 485 00:23:45.029 --> 00:23:45.729 Well done. 486 00:23:45.729 --> 00:23:46.529 Yes, he has been a pillar. 487 00:23:46.561 --> 00:23:51.826 It's been one pillar of stability ever since I've been covering South Africa, I 488 00:23:51.826 --> 00:23:52.057 must say. 489 00:23:52.279 --> 00:23:54.701 Okay, let's have a look at the markets now, the all-important markets. 490 00:23:54.779 --> 00:23:56.873 I've got the dollar round at 18.13. 491 00:23:57.218 --> 00:24:01.002 That's a 2.4% rise for the US dollar against the local currency. 492 00:24:01.401 --> 00:24:04.283 British pound against the rand, 23.98. 493 00:24:04.284 --> 00:24:06.467 Euro rand, 20.74. 494 00:24:06.944 --> 00:24:12.670 Euro dollar, 1.1435, which is a 1.6% fall for the euro. 495 00:24:12.772 --> 00:24:19.022 The British pound against the US dollar, 1.3227, and that's a 1.3% fall for the 496 00:24:19.022 --> 00:24:19.112 pound. 497 00:24:19.365 --> 00:24:22.600 Let's have a look at commodities now, because this is interesting. 498 00:24:22.662 --> 00:24:25.272 The gold price is just about... 499 00:24:25.786 --> 00:24:27.489 Clinging on to $3,300. 500 00:24:27.490 --> 00:24:31.475 It was just below it, actually, by a couple of dollars, $32.98. 501 00:24:31.518 --> 00:24:38.506 The platinum price has fallen by $75 an ounce to $12.98, I think that says. 502 00:24:38.507 --> 00:24:39.288 Yeah, $12.98. 503 00:24:39.871 --> 00:24:46.856 and the palladium price is 12.10 which is down 54 or four and a third percent now 504 00:24:46.856 --> 00:24:46.916 this is where 505 00:24:46.916 --> 00:24:53.501 it gets interesting on the commodities side the oil price yesterday was way above 506 00:24:53.501 --> 00:24:55.501 72 it's now just 507 00:24:55.501 --> 00:24:59.774 clinging on to 71 down two percent on the day nearly for brent crude 7104 and 508 00:24:59.977 --> 00:25:06.790 west texas 68.63 also down nearly two percent that's very interesting it's a 509 00:25:06.821 --> 00:25:11.316 dollar story of course And the one that I used the frame pissed off earlier on, 510 00:25:11.376 --> 00:25:18.101 and I'm going to use it again now because I am so with Donald Trump for playing fast 511 00:25:18.101 --> 00:25:20.101 and loose with the copper price. 512 00:25:20.101 --> 00:25:25.007 The copper price a couple of weeks ago went up 20% because of a 50% increase in 513 00:25:25.007 --> 00:25:27.007 tariffs on copper. 514 00:25:27.007 --> 00:25:29.007 That was reversed yesterday. 515 00:25:29.007 --> 00:25:32.913 Yes, they reiterated 50% increase in copper tariffs, but not on certain 516 00:25:32.913 --> 00:25:34.913 products. 517 00:25:34.913 --> 00:25:36.195 And the futures market fell 20% last night. 518 00:25:36.466 --> 00:25:42.071 I think that's really unfair to be so cavalier with a commodity, which is 519 00:25:42.071 --> 00:25:44.071 terribly, terribly important. 520 00:25:44.071 --> 00:25:45.137 South African 10-year bond, this is a good news story. 521 00:25:45.215 --> 00:25:49.637 9.63%, that's a near 2% fall in the yield. 522 00:25:49.918 --> 00:25:55.192 And that's with everybody knowing that 25 basis points was going to come off the 523 00:25:55.192 --> 00:25:57.192 repo rate. 524 00:25:57.192 --> 00:26:01.113 I think this is because of the target of 3%, which has been put out by the 525 00:26:01.113 --> 00:26:01.204 governor. 526 00:26:01.204 --> 00:26:02.332 So very good news there. 527 00:26:02.785 --> 00:26:04.457 People coming for South African bonds. 528 00:26:04.778 --> 00:26:07.702 US 10-year bonds, 4.34%. 529 00:26:08.022 --> 00:26:13.885 S&P 500, 6408, the September futures, up slightly, 530 00:26:13.909 --> 00:26:15.229 up 0.2%. 531 00:26:15.331 --> 00:26:21.089 And Bitcoin is, what is it, just clinging on to 118,000. 532 00:26:21.214 --> 00:26:23.401 David, the ups and downs on the JSC today. 533 00:26:23.792 --> 00:26:25.854 Give us your highlights and lowlights, please. 534 00:26:27.214 --> 00:26:32.464 This is, if we look here, it's quite remarkable because if you look on the 535 00:26:32.464 --> 00:26:34.464 negative side, 536 00:26:34.464 --> 00:26:36.464 you've got ABN beef down. 537 00:26:36.464 --> 00:26:37.906 nearly 11%, 10.7%. 538 00:26:38.387 --> 00:26:44.269 And I don't think there was anything in their results that really, you know, were 539 00:26:44.269 --> 00:26:46.269 anything to worry about. 540 00:26:46.269 --> 00:26:49.777 Mondi as well, down 10.5%. Impala, down 8.7%. 541 00:26:49.840 --> 00:26:54.644 Now, that's unusual because, yes, the platinum price came down, but the rand 542 00:26:54.644 --> 00:26:56.644 weakened. 543 00:26:56.644 --> 00:27:00.582 And, of course, you know, that would kind of stabilize the platinum price or the 544 00:27:00.582 --> 00:27:02.582 price they get. 545 00:27:02.582 --> 00:27:04.582 So. 546 00:27:04.582 --> 00:27:06.582 There is a bit of nervousness coming into market. 547 00:27:06.582 --> 00:27:08.582 So we see all the platinum shares down. 548 00:27:08.582 --> 00:27:09.340 Valterra down 7.25%. 549 00:27:09.341 --> 00:27:10.856 Northern down 7%. 550 00:27:10.957 --> 00:27:12.043 Sabania down 6%. 551 00:27:12.520 --> 00:27:13.379 These are big falls. 552 00:27:13.504 --> 00:27:14.481 Anglo Gold down 553 00:27:15.864 --> 00:27:21.223 5%. So we've seen the precious metal stocks coming under a lot of pressure. 554 00:27:22.317 --> 00:27:24.848 On the positive side, nothing outstanding. 555 00:27:25.411 --> 00:27:30.676 MTN, Consult, which is PSG, Sasol, Discovery, and Mass. 556 00:27:31.338 --> 00:27:37.279 You know, no massive gains there, but I mean, it's on the mining side that the 557 00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:39.279 damage was done. 558 00:27:39.279 --> 00:27:41.279 Yeah, I'll reiterate that. 559 00:27:41.279 --> 00:27:46.045 On the upside, MTN up 5.6%, PSG Consult 5.25%, Sassel up 2.75%, 560 00:27:46.584 --> 00:27:48.357 and Discovery up 2.2%. 561 00:27:48.748 --> 00:27:51.248 Downside, AB InBev 10.7% weaker. 562 00:27:51.607 --> 00:27:57.045 David, is that because people are not drinking beer, and although they're 563 00:27:57.045 --> 00:27:59.045 replacing... 564 00:27:59.045 --> 00:28:02.313 Some people are replacing it with the 0% alcohol beer. 565 00:28:04.016 --> 00:28:05.317 Is that anything to do with it? 566 00:28:05.318 --> 00:28:07.157 And people just not drinking anymore? 567 00:28:08.477 --> 00:28:09.524 That is a big story. 568 00:28:10.024 --> 00:28:13.789 We're seeing it in the spirit side and we're certainly seeing it in the beer 569 00:28:13.789 --> 00:28:13.888 side. 570 00:28:14.352 --> 00:28:18.196 But AB InBev have managed their way well through this. 571 00:28:18.227 --> 00:28:19.867 They are pushing the premium beers. 572 00:28:20.227 --> 00:28:23.149 That's why I'm a little surprised by what we saw. 573 00:28:23.477 --> 00:28:25.352 I know volumes are slightly down. 574 00:28:26.435 --> 00:28:27.496 but nothing dramatic. 575 00:28:27.536 --> 00:28:29.697 But I think this is a trend, Lindsay. 576 00:28:30.381 --> 00:28:34.021 It's something that I would worry about in that area. 577 00:28:34.381 --> 00:28:36.826 ABM, BF, Heineken, we saw a similar trend. 578 00:28:37.162 --> 00:28:41.131 Carlsberg, we're seeing spirits like Diageo, Pernod Ricard, 579 00:28:41.552 --> 00:28:47.654 all of them are reporting that on the spirit side, their volumes are going down, 580 00:28:48.763 --> 00:28:50.966 meaning that people are drinking a lot less. 581 00:28:51.263 --> 00:28:54.045 I don't know whether it's a healthy option, whether they can't afford it. 582 00:28:55.050 --> 00:28:57.093 There's a definite lifestyle shift. 583 00:28:57.372 --> 00:28:59.536 I knew I should have phoned you when I stopped drinking. 584 00:28:59.696 --> 00:29:04.482 I knew that would be the trigger for AB InBev and the others to fall off a cliff. 585 00:29:04.982 --> 00:29:06.802 It was a sign, a trigger. 586 00:29:07.364 --> 00:29:08.443 Okay, what else have I got? 587 00:29:08.724 --> 00:29:15.052 Mondi PLC down 10.5%, Impala Platinum down 8.75%, Valterra down 7.25%. 588 00:29:15.146 --> 00:29:17.036 Their results, of course, were out on Monday. 589 00:29:17.130 --> 00:29:18.146 And Northam's down... 590 00:29:19.371 --> 00:29:25.176 I didn't realize I was talking to somebody yesterday about Impala and Northam's going 591 00:29:25.176 --> 00:29:27.176 up like 120, 592 00:29:27.176 --> 00:29:29.176 130 percent. 593 00:29:29.176 --> 00:29:33.105 I know Valterra had gone up 50, 60 percent, but the other ones, goodness me, 594 00:29:33.105 --> 00:29:35.105 they've shot the lights out. 595 00:29:35.105 --> 00:29:35.832 David, please give us the closing indices on the JSC. 596 00:29:36.410 --> 00:29:39.629 So if you look at the JSC, we held ground. 597 00:29:39.676 --> 00:29:44.473 I mean, only lost 0.8 of a percent down to 98, 520. 598 00:29:44.474 --> 00:29:45.316 We're still below that. 599 00:29:45.778 --> 00:29:50.743 100,000 level, which were records level, but the damage done with the resources, 600 00:29:50.962 --> 00:29:57.107 the resource index down nearly 4% and precious metals index down 4.5%. 601 00:29:57.108 --> 00:30:02.029 The rest of the market pretty steady, you know, financials held their ground, banks 602 00:30:02.029 --> 00:30:04.029 up nearly 1%, 603 00:30:04.029 --> 00:30:05.950 the other financials also quite steady. 604 00:30:06.279 --> 00:30:10.279 On the industrial side, because of that ABM debt, because of the MONDI, 605 00:30:11.029 --> 00:30:13.310 they do have quite a strong weighting in the index. 606 00:30:14.102 --> 00:30:19.889 We did see industrials a little lower, particularly on the consumer side. 607 00:30:20.167 --> 00:30:23.796 I think the normal process, Richemont, all of those came under pressure as well. 608 00:30:23.850 --> 00:30:26.718 NASPERS and, of course, the retailers. 609 00:30:26.757 --> 00:30:30.499 So all, yeah, kind of mixed, funny enough, in the retailers. 610 00:30:30.561 --> 00:30:33.296 But I still think the heavyweights took the index down. 611 00:30:33.764 --> 00:30:34.464 Okay. 612 00:30:34.464 --> 00:30:35.796 Viv, final question goes to you. 613 00:30:36.139 --> 00:30:38.530 We've seen great numbers from Meta and Microsoft. 614 00:30:38.811 --> 00:30:40.108 Will it continue with the other? 615 00:30:40.322 --> 00:30:41.022 with the other ones? 616 00:30:41.022 --> 00:30:42.825 I know NVIDIA is a bit out of sync, isn't it? 617 00:30:42.826 --> 00:30:46.669 It's not part of the normal results season, but the other ones, do you expect 618 00:30:46.669 --> 00:30:48.669 the same? 619 00:30:48.989 --> 00:30:49.689 Not so many. 620 00:30:49.689 --> 00:30:51.310 I mean, Apple, I think, is going to be a bit of a lagger. 621 00:30:51.311 --> 00:30:56.575 I think Apple, you know, in terms of, you know, like I said, 622 00:30:56.903 --> 00:30:58.841 the AI story has kind of skipped them by. 623 00:30:59.919 --> 00:31:04.966 You really see it like, you know, either you go very big or you can't go home. 624 00:31:05.325 --> 00:31:09.075 You can't be playing with like this kind of small kind of investments that Apple 625 00:31:09.075 --> 00:31:09.088 has had in the past. 626 00:31:09.106 --> 00:31:09.810 I think that is the... 627 00:31:09.866 --> 00:31:11.887 the biggest change that we see at the moment. 628 00:31:12.348 --> 00:31:14.311 Viv, thanks so much for your time. 629 00:31:14.350 --> 00:31:15.651 Viv Govender is from Ranswiss. 630 00:31:15.652 --> 00:31:17.393 And again, congratulations on your award. 631 00:31:17.452 --> 00:31:19.819 David Shapiro is from SAS and Securities. 632 00:31:19.820 --> 00:31:21.241 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 633 00:31:22.155 --> 00:31:29.132 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 634 00:31:29.132 --> 00:31:31.132 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 635 00:31:31.132 --> 00:31:33.647 position, or opinion of any other agency, organisation, employer, 636 00:31:33.991 --> 00:31:37.835 or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 637 00:31:38.266 --> 00:31:45.260 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 638 00:31:45.260 --> 00:31:47.260 entity other than the speaker or the author. 639 00:31:47.260 --> 00:31:50.725 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 640 00:31:50.725 --> 00:31:50.847 change, 641 00:31:51.006 --> 00:31:53.577 revision and rethinking at any time. 642 00:31:53.897 --> 00:31:56.295 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.