WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:05.647 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.671 --> 00:00:09.413 JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. 3 00:00:09.452 --> 00:00:16.327 And as always on a Wednesday, I'm speaking to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG 4 00:00:16.327 --> 00:00:18.327 Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. 5 00:00:18.327 --> 00:00:20.327 Busy time. 6 00:00:20.327 --> 00:00:22.327 This three days, actually. 7 00:00:22.327 --> 00:00:24.171 I mean, it's over in South Africa, but it's just beginning in the United States 8 00:00:24.171 --> 00:00:26.171 of America. 9 00:00:26.171 --> 00:00:26.483 And the first big thing is, of course, the Fed. 10 00:00:26.530 --> 00:00:29.046 They end their two-day meeting tonight, Skulk. 11 00:00:29.468 --> 00:00:32.710 98% of the market says no change. 12 00:00:32.792 --> 00:00:33.492 What do you say? 13 00:00:34.695 --> 00:00:35.933 I say no change. 14 00:00:35.934 --> 00:00:37.257 I'm not going to go against that. 15 00:00:38.456 --> 00:00:41.503 I don't see Powell making any harsh movement now. 16 00:00:41.699 --> 00:00:43.863 He's sort of drawn his line on the sand already. 17 00:00:44.644 --> 00:00:47.167 And he's clearly not going to go back on that. 18 00:00:47.230 --> 00:00:48.808 So, yeah. 19 00:00:48.809 --> 00:00:52.917 So, the bottom line is, I think in about two or three hours' time, 20 00:00:53.105 --> 00:00:58.652 we will hear that the Fed kept their rates unchanged. 21 00:00:59.376 --> 00:01:01.577 And we'll most probably have Mr. 22 00:01:01.616 --> 00:01:06.919 Trump or President Trump, for that matter, have something to say about that closely 23 00:01:06.919 --> 00:01:08.919 after. 24 00:01:08.919 --> 00:01:09.040 He'll be gnashing his teeth. 25 00:01:09.055 --> 00:01:11.258 He'll be absolutely furious. 26 00:01:11.282 --> 00:01:12.376 He'll call him stupid. 27 00:01:12.782 --> 00:01:14.219 He'll call him dumb. 28 00:01:14.258 --> 00:01:19.337 He'll call him a low IQ person because his empire, of course, relies on cheap money. 29 00:01:19.837 --> 00:01:26.243 And unfortunately, cheap money is not what he's going to get unless inflation is 30 00:01:26.243 --> 00:01:28.243 under control in the United States. 31 00:01:28.243 --> 00:01:28.649 and quite clearly it's not running away. 32 00:01:28.944 --> 00:01:29.965 but it's not going down. 33 00:01:30.264 --> 00:01:31.565 And that's the ultimate tax. 34 00:01:31.704 --> 00:01:32.665 Never mind tariffs. 35 00:01:32.666 --> 00:01:34.167 The ultimate tax on the U.S. 36 00:01:34.225 --> 00:01:35.526 consumer is U.S. 37 00:01:35.585 --> 00:01:36.285 inflation. 38 00:01:36.285 --> 00:01:37.710 Correct. 39 00:01:39.749 --> 00:01:41.530 This is his stance. 40 00:01:41.624 --> 00:01:42.608 Nobody is looking at it. 41 00:01:42.788 --> 00:01:46.835 And for that very reason, he's kept that stance. 42 00:01:47.053 --> 00:01:48.241 I mean, it's just interesting. 43 00:01:48.710 --> 00:01:55.210 Now, you've already mentioned a 98% probability of remaining unchanged. 44 00:01:55.288 --> 00:01:57.413 I reckon we can move that up to 100%. 45 00:01:57.836 --> 00:01:59.916 It's more looking towards September. 46 00:01:59.936 --> 00:02:02.756 September was sort of a foregone conclusion. 47 00:02:04.197 --> 00:02:08.240 Let's first off, when we stood here this time around last year, 48 00:02:08.779 --> 00:02:13.420 we were looking at at least another six cuts until the end of this year. 49 00:02:13.678 --> 00:02:18.928 When we went into this year, they were talking about four cuts, at least four 50 00:02:18.928 --> 00:02:20.928 cuts for 2025. 51 00:02:20.928 --> 00:02:23.444 Here we're sitting, there is one, two, three meetings left. 52 00:02:23.475 --> 00:02:25.647 So even if they cut in. 53 00:02:25.744 --> 00:02:28.224 In each of these meetings, we'll only see three cuts. 54 00:02:28.365 --> 00:02:34.728 So we know the four cuts, if today is unchanged, will be not happening. 55 00:02:35.369 --> 00:02:41.267 But now, as we sit here, the September meeting, they are saying that now there's 56 00:02:41.267 --> 00:02:43.267 only about a 60% 57 00:02:43.267 --> 00:02:44.635 probability that we'll see the cut. 58 00:02:45.150 --> 00:02:47.431 And I think we're going to see the cut in September. 59 00:02:47.994 --> 00:02:53.056 I think, you know, if we don't see a cut in September, there will be no Powell. 60 00:02:53.103 --> 00:02:57.252 as good They're the man in charge of the faith anymore. 61 00:02:57.832 --> 00:03:01.834 But yeah, 60%, that's interesting. 62 00:03:03.970 --> 00:03:06.455 I think you're quite right about Powell. 63 00:03:06.456 --> 00:03:12.838 There could be some way that Trump manages to wheedle him out. 64 00:03:13.650 --> 00:03:19.463 He'll find some way to get an executive order or something and to get his own way. 65 00:03:19.478 --> 00:03:20.244 He usually does. 66 00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:21.621 So that'll be the big thing. 67 00:03:21.641 --> 00:03:22.863 And I wonder what the market would do. 68 00:03:22.943 --> 00:03:25.625 Let's just quickly speculate before we get on to other things. 69 00:03:26.265 --> 00:03:32.535 What would the market do if suddenly it was announced that Jerome Powell, the 70 00:03:32.535 --> 00:03:34.535 chair of the U.S. 71 00:03:34.535 --> 00:03:37.652 Federal Reserve, had been removed by Donald Trump, the 47th president of the 72 00:03:37.652 --> 00:03:39.652 United States? 73 00:03:39.652 --> 00:03:43.339 Okay, so if that happened, 74 00:03:43.777 --> 00:03:50.027 that will effectively mean that his position is no longer independent. 75 00:03:50.120 --> 00:03:53.523 position, independent from the US government. 76 00:03:55.385 --> 00:03:59.072 It's sort of a safeguard for any central or reserve bank. 77 00:03:59.689 --> 00:04:03.814 It's saying that this is something that is run independently from the country. 78 00:04:03.853 --> 00:04:07.330 If that happens, that will mean that's no longer the case. 79 00:04:07.377 --> 00:04:09.986 If that's no longer the case, I think Mr. 80 00:04:10.018 --> 00:04:12.158 Markit will say, well, you know what? 81 00:04:12.846 --> 00:04:14.783 This is really, really dangerous. 82 00:04:15.658 --> 00:04:18.314 I mean, I think... 83 00:04:19.332 --> 00:04:24.417 Making a long story short, I think we'll see a dollar run. 84 00:04:24.636 --> 00:04:25.898 We'll see a collapse in the dollar. 85 00:04:26.218 --> 00:04:26.918 I agree. 86 00:04:27.780 --> 00:04:28.585 For three reasons. 87 00:04:28.663 --> 00:04:34.663 Number one, uncertainty, but mainly because the new person is being put there 88 00:04:34.663 --> 00:04:36.663 to cut interest rates. 89 00:04:36.663 --> 00:04:38.413 And of course, if you cut the interest rates of a currency, the currency 90 00:04:38.413 --> 00:04:40.413 depreciates. 91 00:04:40.413 --> 00:04:42.413 There we go. 92 00:04:42.413 --> 00:04:47.960 And that will effectively mean that you would see your 93 00:04:48.116 --> 00:04:48.816 interest rates. 94 00:04:49.088 --> 00:04:49.788 will be cut. 95 00:04:50.330 --> 00:04:54.418 I think looking at your longer rates, that will put some pressure on your bonds. 96 00:04:54.797 --> 00:04:59.063 And sitting with their debt levels as it currently stands, 97 00:04:59.445 --> 00:05:01.867 I don't think the US can afford something like that. 98 00:05:03.124 --> 00:05:03.965 Well, I know they can't. 99 00:05:04.025 --> 00:05:04.725 No, they can't. 100 00:05:04.725 --> 00:05:05.527 No, they definitely can't. 101 00:05:05.528 --> 00:05:06.828 The world can't afford it either. 102 00:05:07.449 --> 00:05:09.168 Some people will love the weak dollar. 103 00:05:09.250 --> 00:05:13.457 Other people will say, goodness me, this is exactly what we don't need. 104 00:05:13.934 --> 00:05:15.535 So anyway, we're speculating now. 105 00:05:15.699 --> 00:05:22.363 Tomorrow, we've got the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee 106 00:05:22.363 --> 00:05:24.363 announcing interest rates 107 00:05:24.363 --> 00:05:26.363 in South Africa. 108 00:05:26.363 --> 00:05:27.863 It looks like a 25 basis point cut is baked into the markets, Gunk. 109 00:05:28.942 --> 00:05:29.642 Yeah. 110 00:05:30.176 --> 00:05:31.707 So you're 100% right. 111 00:05:32.356 --> 00:05:39.183 i think for now it's it's sort of uh a um if we had probabilities 112 00:05:39.504 --> 00:05:46.351 i i would say i think we we most probably most probably a hundred percent 113 00:05:46.351 --> 00:05:48.351 probability that we're gonna see a 114 00:05:48.351 --> 00:05:53.031 a quarter of a percentage cut yeah and and for good reason i mean for good reason we 115 00:05:53.031 --> 00:05:55.031 we should be seeing that 116 00:05:55.031 --> 00:05:57.328 because i mean we've we've had the inflation number coming out three percent 117 00:05:57.328 --> 00:05:59.328 it's the 118 00:05:59.328 --> 00:06:01.609 ninth month in a row where interest rates remained 119 00:06:02.673 --> 00:06:04.554 It's got below 3.2%. 120 00:06:04.555 --> 00:06:07.577 Now, remember the bands, 3% to 6%. 121 00:06:07.679 --> 00:06:09.538 This is the bottom side of the band. 122 00:06:09.620 --> 00:06:11.901 For nine months in a row. 123 00:06:11.925 --> 00:06:15.323 As long as it stays below 4.5%, to me, they can afford to cut rates. 124 00:06:15.324 --> 00:06:18.667 I mean, that's the mid-range of the 3% to 6% target range. 125 00:06:18.730 --> 00:06:20.355 But we'll talk about targets in a moment. 126 00:06:20.651 --> 00:06:23.058 So definitely 25 basis points down. 127 00:06:23.355 --> 00:06:24.620 But that's not enough, really. 128 00:06:24.651 --> 00:06:26.636 It should be 50, I think. 129 00:06:26.637 --> 00:06:27.337 No, no, no. 130 00:06:27.337 --> 00:06:27.761 I'll tell you why. 131 00:06:27.792 --> 00:06:33.535 I mean, so just I think for this, I've said, So I'm going for 100%. 132 00:06:33.656 --> 00:06:36.718 Currently, as we set you the poll, and I'm using the Reuters poll, 133 00:06:37.379 --> 00:06:43.402 there's 17 economists that participate in this poll, and 63% 134 00:06:43.488 --> 00:06:46.425 of them already said that we're going to see a cut tomorrow. 135 00:06:46.589 --> 00:06:50.136 And the cut is looking like a quarter of a percentage. 136 00:06:50.714 --> 00:06:51.730 Now, this morning, 137 00:06:51.731 --> 00:06:58.418 the IMF came out and they adjusted their forecasts for different 138 00:06:58.433 --> 00:07:00.277 countries, for the globe, for the economic. 139 00:07:01.045 --> 00:07:02.366 growth for the globe. 140 00:07:02.767 --> 00:07:04.849 And the general trend was downwards. 141 00:07:05.029 --> 00:07:09.970 So the IMF feel there's going to be a bit of an easing in global economic growth. 142 00:07:10.314 --> 00:07:14.079 The good thing was South Africa remained unchanged. 143 00:07:14.540 --> 00:07:17.587 The bad thing is they've already downgraded us to 1%, 144 00:07:18.181 --> 00:07:21.728 where they originally thought we were going to be a lot stronger. 145 00:07:22.447 --> 00:07:24.306 But Lindsay, 1%, come on. 146 00:07:24.587 --> 00:07:26.884 I mean, South Africa... 147 00:07:27.243 --> 00:07:28.493 It's a disgrace, actually. 148 00:07:29.305 --> 00:07:30.205 It is a disgrace. 149 00:07:30.326 --> 00:07:35.752 I mean, our population growth is closer to 3%. 150 00:07:35.811 --> 00:07:40.834 So when your economy is only growing by 1%, it's not even the population growth. 151 00:07:41.397 --> 00:07:42.975 And here's why it's actually a disgrace. 152 00:07:43.014 --> 00:07:49.077 Because we are one of the largest commodity-producing countries. 153 00:07:49.748 --> 00:07:54.092 And we're producing the commodities that's actually doing well currently. 154 00:07:55.716 --> 00:07:57.878 We're the largest platinum producer in the world. 155 00:07:57.897 --> 00:08:00.300 We're the second largest palladium producer in the world. 156 00:08:00.620 --> 00:08:02.843 We're the largest rhodium producer in the world. 157 00:08:02.844 --> 00:08:05.163 We're the eighth largest gold producer in the world. 158 00:08:05.186 --> 00:08:08.030 We're one of the largest copper producers in the world. 159 00:08:08.046 --> 00:08:13.632 And just for the listeners out there, go and Google all these commodities that I've 160 00:08:13.632 --> 00:08:15.632 just shown you. 161 00:08:15.632 --> 00:08:19.866 Then you can see, you know, this is the environment we said Africa or more 162 00:08:19.866 --> 00:08:21.866 specifically our economy should be flourishing. 163 00:08:21.866 --> 00:08:22.519 And we're not. 164 00:08:22.585 --> 00:08:24.663 So we need to get to… 165 00:08:24.756 --> 00:08:31.619 the basics right and and i do believe that the the quarter of a percentage is it's 166 00:08:31.619 --> 00:08:33.619 not going to help a lot i mean 167 00:08:33.619 --> 00:08:39.595 with all due respect i mean we're a quarter of a percent in in south african 168 00:08:39.595 --> 00:08:41.595 terms we're still sitting with a reaper right 169 00:08:41.595 --> 00:08:46.642 after the cut of then seven percent i mean seven percent is still high and the other 170 00:08:46.642 --> 00:08:48.642 thing is skunk is 171 00:08:48.642 --> 00:08:52.127 that the south african economy is not as interest rate sensitive as say 172 00:08:52.604 --> 00:08:56.308 The American economy is because people have a lot of debt in America. 173 00:08:56.388 --> 00:09:01.974 They use debt in order to fund their businesses, their expansion of their 174 00:09:01.974 --> 00:09:03.974 businesses. 175 00:09:03.974 --> 00:09:04.216 They use their credit cards an awful lot. 176 00:09:04.575 --> 00:09:06.021 South Africa is not quite like that. 177 00:09:06.177 --> 00:09:12.950 The vast majority of the population won't have exposure to interest rates, I don't 178 00:09:12.950 --> 00:09:13.167 think. 179 00:09:13.606 --> 00:09:16.341 Or am I a little bit late on that one? 180 00:09:18.325 --> 00:09:19.653 Well, I think... 181 00:09:20.436 --> 00:09:21.517 No, I would say no. 182 00:09:21.878 --> 00:09:24.281 I don't think that not directly. 183 00:09:24.379 --> 00:09:31.027 I mean, if you're sitting with such a large lower class, middle class, well, 184 00:09:31.050 --> 00:09:35.535 let's go more lower class that's less sensitive to interest rates. 185 00:09:35.808 --> 00:09:39.910 I mean, you can push the interest rates up to 20% in prime rate. 186 00:09:40.363 --> 00:09:45.722 If 80% of your country don't have any debt or access to debt, 187 00:09:46.097 --> 00:09:48.582 then it won't have a direct impact. 188 00:09:48.816 --> 00:09:49.516 But. 189 00:09:49.736 --> 00:09:56.201 I mean, it's definitely having an indirect impact, whereas, I mean, we've had 190 00:09:57.104 --> 00:09:59.026 AECI reported this morning. 191 00:09:59.549 --> 00:10:01.924 And I'm not going to do a long song and dance. 192 00:10:02.666 --> 00:10:04.354 The results were flat. 193 00:10:04.573 --> 00:10:05.573 I mean, we've got a... 194 00:10:05.574 --> 00:10:07.659 I saw the share price doing absolutely nothing, yeah. 195 00:10:08.355 --> 00:10:10.995 Yeah, well, it's been doing absolutely nothing for 10 years. 196 00:10:11.316 --> 00:10:12.495 You can go and look at the profit. 197 00:10:13.015 --> 00:10:15.198 I'm going to quote David Shapiro. 198 00:10:15.378 --> 00:10:18.980 I mean, we were doing an interview this afternoon again where he said, 199 00:10:19.995 --> 00:10:25.362 it's one of those shares that just goes a little bit up and then it goes a little 200 00:10:25.362 --> 00:10:27.362 down and it goes a little bit up. 201 00:10:27.362 --> 00:10:31.097 And it went on for about 10 seconds going like up and down and then eventually just 202 00:10:31.097 --> 00:10:33.097 end up nowhere. 203 00:10:33.097 --> 00:10:34.300 That's not the sort of stock that Shapiro is ever going to invest in. 204 00:10:34.566 --> 00:10:35.378 I can tell you that. 205 00:10:35.566 --> 00:10:36.441 And they're... 206 00:10:36.863 --> 00:10:38.365 Why do people invest in it? 207 00:10:38.405 --> 00:10:39.586 Is it because it's familiar? 208 00:10:39.606 --> 00:10:41.125 Is it because it pays a dividend? 209 00:10:41.188 --> 00:10:42.309 Does it pay a dividend? 210 00:10:42.469 --> 00:10:43.169 Yeah. 211 00:10:43.290 --> 00:10:47.071 Yeah, it was a and that's where I want to get to. 212 00:10:47.094 --> 00:10:49.532 I mean, it was a high-dividend-paying stock. 213 00:10:49.977 --> 00:10:55.938 I mean, and just for the listeners out there, it's one of the stocks that I own, 214 00:10:55.938 --> 00:10:57.938 so that might look bad. 215 00:10:57.938 --> 00:10:58.032 It looks good. 216 00:10:58.063 --> 00:11:04.125 I love my bang-bangs because I often have the conversation on this podcast 217 00:11:04.125 --> 00:11:06.125 elsewhere. 218 00:11:06.125 --> 00:11:09.591 So why do I like bang bangs well i like bang bang you have to explain what bang 219 00:11:09.591 --> 00:11:11.591 bangs is i mean it's 220 00:11:11.591 --> 00:11:15.955 because on the old jsc floor it's uh it's a company that makes explosives i mean 221 00:11:15.955 --> 00:11:17.955 that's one of its businesses but 222 00:11:17.955 --> 00:11:19.040 that's what it was known for explosives for the mining industry 223 00:11:19.564 --> 00:11:25.611 so hence bang bang just in case we've got some 18 year olds listening skull but 224 00:11:25.673 --> 00:11:32.408 but i'm so glad you explained that because that was the main reason why i bought this 225 00:11:32.408 --> 00:11:34.408 um let's call it about 226 00:11:34.408 --> 00:11:36.404 five years ago because Remember, we've had this conversation where I say, you know, 227 00:11:36.464 --> 00:11:39.542 some of these mining companies have done so well. 228 00:11:40.023 --> 00:11:42.527 I mean, I'm starting to look for the secondaries. 229 00:11:42.528 --> 00:11:49.089 The secondaries for companies that will benefit out of a commodity or more 230 00:11:49.090 --> 00:11:51.620 specifically a mining commodity boom. 231 00:11:52.949 --> 00:11:56.042 Because if your likes of your 232 00:11:56.652 --> 00:12:02.308 South Deeps and those type of gold companies are doing well, they're doing 233 00:12:02.308 --> 00:12:02.525 well. 234 00:12:02.951 --> 00:12:09.677 then naturally they will need to do more, buy more explosives, and eventually the 235 00:12:09.677 --> 00:12:11.677 secondaries will do well. 236 00:12:11.677 --> 00:12:13.677 Udeco is another example. 237 00:12:13.677 --> 00:12:14.298 The reason why I'm holding Udeco is close to 20% 238 00:12:14.861 --> 00:12:18.330 of Udeco's turnover is made up from the mines. 239 00:12:18.345 --> 00:12:22.111 So they create these diesel engine parts, 240 00:12:22.908 --> 00:12:27.939 and when these mines do maintenance, these type of companies will benefit. 241 00:12:28.002 --> 00:12:30.298 Now back to ASCI today. 242 00:12:31.003 --> 00:12:37.351 Yeah, don't spend too long on AECI, because if it's done nothing for 10 years, 243 00:12:37.351 --> 00:12:39.351 then that's the story. 244 00:12:39.351 --> 00:12:41.937 I've got 10 years to make up for this. 245 00:12:43.133 --> 00:12:49.187 We started off by saying, why is South Africa sensitive to interest rates? 246 00:12:49.234 --> 00:12:50.703 And this is where I want to get to. 247 00:12:51.515 --> 00:12:56.312 The likes of AECI I mentioned in the report this morning, they had exuberant 248 00:12:56.312 --> 00:12:58.312 debt levels. 249 00:12:58.312 --> 00:12:58.656 And this is why they had this restructuring. 250 00:12:58.657 --> 00:12:59.484 They sold two of the... 251 00:12:59.687 --> 00:13:02.649 They're the company, Shroom, and that other company as well. 252 00:13:03.069 --> 00:13:10.058 And they've literally half their debt because they were feeling the pinch of the 253 00:13:10.058 --> 00:13:12.058 higher interest rate environment. 254 00:13:12.058 --> 00:13:14.644 And when you feel the pinch on a higher interest rate environment, you will do 255 00:13:14.644 --> 00:13:16.644 cost cuttings. 256 00:13:16.644 --> 00:13:21.730 And by doing cost cuttings, you will inevitably either not employ people or go 257 00:13:21.730 --> 00:13:23.730 to the extreme and retrench 258 00:13:23.730 --> 00:13:25.730 people. 259 00:13:25.730 --> 00:13:26.948 And if you're a trench people while we're already sitting with the third official. 260 00:13:28.611 --> 00:13:34.231 number of the country that's sitting unemployed, then it's definitely going to 261 00:13:34.231 --> 00:13:36.231 affect your country. 262 00:13:36.231 --> 00:13:36.571 So this is where I want to get to. 263 00:13:36.572 --> 00:13:40.430 You know, mid-2000s, we had a similar commodity boom, 264 00:13:40.891 --> 00:13:45.032 but we've managed to actually use this to create jobs. 265 00:13:45.235 --> 00:13:51.375 We took the unemployment rate also from about 32%, 33% levels early 2000s. 266 00:13:51.376 --> 00:13:56.344 And by 2009, our unemployment rate was 21%. 267 00:13:56.345 --> 00:13:57.344 100%. 268 00:13:58.087 --> 00:14:01.488 just because we will be able to use the commodity boom, 269 00:14:02.088 --> 00:14:07.733 use the lower interest rate environment to actually create jobs and really, really 270 00:14:07.733 --> 00:14:09.733 grow our economy. 271 00:14:09.733 --> 00:14:11.733 We need to do the same thing again. 272 00:14:11.733 --> 00:14:12.209 I mean, so yeah, we need to reduce the interest rates. 273 00:14:13.608 --> 00:14:15.670 We had to do it way, way earlier. 274 00:14:16.608 --> 00:14:22.108 We started way earlier, but be that as my long-winded way of saying, I think we will 275 00:14:22.108 --> 00:14:24.108 see a cut 276 00:14:24.108 --> 00:14:24.654 25 basis points tomorrow by the SOP. 277 00:14:24.779 --> 00:14:26.779 And you very neatly managed to go... 278 00:14:26.931 --> 00:14:30.972 get interest rates in the latter part of your ACI discussion. 279 00:14:31.452 --> 00:14:32.190 That was very good. 280 00:14:32.233 --> 00:14:33.331 I didn't even notice it. 281 00:14:33.511 --> 00:14:38.175 Suddenly, I drifted off a bit during ACI, and then suddenly you're talking about 282 00:14:38.175 --> 00:14:40.175 interest rates. 283 00:14:40.175 --> 00:14:41.331 But I want to tell you a story now, and I want you to sit down. 284 00:14:42.433 --> 00:14:47.269 While you're waiting, get up a Valterra chart, please, which used to be 285 00:14:47.269 --> 00:14:49.269 Anglo-American Platinum. 286 00:14:49.269 --> 00:14:49.894 I'm not lying, Lindsay. 287 00:14:49.895 --> 00:14:51.378 I've literally got it in front of me now. 288 00:14:51.394 --> 00:14:52.144 Thank you very much. 289 00:14:52.394 --> 00:14:53.097 That's all I need. 290 00:14:53.284 --> 00:14:54.097 Now, listen. 291 00:14:55.190 --> 00:14:55.940 Many weeks ago. 292 00:14:56.279 --> 00:14:57.140 I saw something. 293 00:14:57.480 --> 00:15:00.503 I saw the first move of the end of a bear market. 294 00:15:00.945 --> 00:15:05.812 And it was a really big jump in white metal prices, PGMs, platinum group metals. 295 00:15:06.187 --> 00:15:07.554 And I thought something's going on here. 296 00:15:07.555 --> 00:15:09.132 And I watched the market for a couple of days. 297 00:15:09.171 --> 00:15:11.351 And I thought, no, this could be the real thing. 298 00:15:11.632 --> 00:15:17.945 So I phoned around to various fund managers and various analysts, etc., both 299 00:15:17.945 --> 00:15:19.945 here and in London. 300 00:15:19.945 --> 00:15:21.445 And I said, can I talk to somebody about PGMs? 301 00:15:21.446 --> 00:15:22.163 And they said, oh, no. 302 00:15:22.719 --> 00:15:29.545 there's nothing going on there we haven't really got much to say i said well that's 303 00:15:29.545 --> 00:15:31.545 the whole point nobody's got anything to say nobody is 304 00:15:31.545 --> 00:15:36.491 interested in these things and that's when they start to take off and i got really 305 00:15:36.491 --> 00:15:38.491 quite 306 00:15:38.491 --> 00:15:43.452 infuriated by not being able to talk about it and of course since then the price has 307 00:15:43.452 --> 00:15:45.452 gone up of pgms 308 00:15:45.452 --> 00:15:50.248 and also by association the price of companies like of veltera so before i go 309 00:15:50.248 --> 00:15:52.248 on give me the 310 00:15:52.248 --> 00:15:52.389 veltera price action this year please 311 00:15:53.732 --> 00:16:00.096 okay so so the the valterra price so we went into this year um let me quickly just 312 00:16:00.096 --> 00:16:02.096 get that up 313 00:16:02.096 --> 00:16:05.487 so the on the 31st it closed at 500 i'm not just going to round it up 314 00:16:06.065 --> 00:16:12.237 569 ram per share 569 and it's currently 869 isn't it is that 315 00:16:12.238 --> 00:16:18.096 869 or 889 860. 316 00:16:18.097 --> 00:16:19.253 yeah there we go i don't know 886. 317 00:16:19.640 --> 00:16:20.340 Oh, there we go. 318 00:16:20.441 --> 00:16:21.141 Yeah, that's it. 319 00:16:21.141 --> 00:16:24.504 I've got 880.73 on my screen, but it's behind you. 320 00:16:25.527 --> 00:16:26.809 I'm just, again, rounding up. 321 00:16:27.008 --> 00:16:29.570 Let's call it 885.65. 322 00:16:29.571 --> 00:16:30.271 Yeah, exactly. 323 00:16:30.271 --> 00:16:30.953 885. 324 00:16:30.954 --> 00:16:33.234 But anyway, the fact is it's gone up. 325 00:16:33.375 --> 00:16:34.075 What is that? 326 00:16:34.075 --> 00:16:35.750 About 60, 65%? 327 00:16:37.203 --> 00:16:37.922 Yeah. 328 00:16:38.344 --> 00:16:39.719 I can give you the figures if you want. 329 00:16:40.219 --> 00:16:42.266 Yeah, let's do it properly. 330 00:16:42.609 --> 00:16:46.391 And I don't think that you really need to look for the auxiliaries. 331 00:16:46.676 --> 00:16:50.240 in the mining industry, like the Bang Bangs and the Hudekas of this world, 332 00:16:50.260 --> 00:16:56.545 because there is still a prime commodity run on its way and about to go further. 333 00:16:56.546 --> 00:17:00.693 And the reason I say that, apart from the fact that I've seen commodity runs before, 334 00:17:00.709 --> 00:17:07.670 and this has got all the characteristics of a one, two, three year run to the 335 00:17:07.670 --> 00:17:09.670 upside bull market, in other words, 336 00:17:09.670 --> 00:17:14.185 the other thing is, is when you hear the CEO of Valterra, whose name briefly 337 00:17:14.185 --> 00:17:16.185 escapes me, 338 00:17:16.185 --> 00:17:20.190 He sounds like a very reasonable man and he doesn't want to sound bullish but he 339 00:17:20.190 --> 00:17:22.190 can't help himself. 340 00:17:22.190 --> 00:17:23.870 He keeps saying things with a hint of bullishness to them. 341 00:17:23.893 --> 00:17:24.917 He says things like, 342 00:17:26.237 --> 00:17:33.229 we're not going to get any increased production in the industry until the price 343 00:17:33.229 --> 00:17:35.229 goes a lot, lot higher. 344 00:17:35.229 --> 00:17:39.807 And that means to me that they are not going to increase production until the 345 00:17:39.807 --> 00:17:41.807 price is going higher. 346 00:17:41.807 --> 00:17:43.213 And he's saying that because he knows the price is going higher. 347 00:17:43.444 --> 00:17:50.350 he knows from the people he's talking to who buys his product his platinum his 348 00:17:50.350 --> 00:17:52.350 palladium his rhodium etc and all the other 349 00:17:52.350 --> 00:17:57.377 little ones he knows from talking to them where this price is going i think it's 350 00:17:57.377 --> 00:17:59.377 going up skulk and i'm nailing my colors 351 00:17:59.377 --> 00:18:03.330 to the mast well okay firstly for the listeners out there this is not the first 352 00:18:03.330 --> 00:18:05.330 time you've said 353 00:18:05.330 --> 00:18:08.533 this i can distinctly recall a few weeks ago go. 354 00:18:09.252 --> 00:18:11.518 You've actually had the same conversation. 355 00:18:11.565 --> 00:18:12.299 Am I boring you? 356 00:18:12.658 --> 00:18:13.358 Sorry. 357 00:18:13.358 --> 00:18:16.240 You can have no, no, no, no, no, not to this extent. 358 00:18:16.320 --> 00:18:18.081 I mean, not yet. 359 00:18:18.781 --> 00:18:25.050 But you did mention that this is a sign of a change from something that goes from a 360 00:18:25.050 --> 00:18:27.050 bear market to a bull market. 361 00:18:27.050 --> 00:18:29.050 Yes. 362 00:18:29.050 --> 00:18:29.292 And I can remember because of price actions that you looked at, you looked at 363 00:18:29.292 --> 00:18:31.292 the white metals. 364 00:18:31.292 --> 00:18:35.277 But to your question, I mean, Volterra year-to-date, so from the 1st of 365 00:18:35.683 --> 00:18:41.167 January up to yesterday, it's grown 64% year-to-date. 366 00:18:41.386 --> 00:18:42.086 That's, that's. 367 00:18:42.416 --> 00:18:43.116 Amazing. 368 00:18:44.176 --> 00:18:50.996 But I sort of used the time because you were going on long enough so I can 369 00:18:50.996 --> 00:18:52.996 actually… I learned from you, Scott. 370 00:18:52.996 --> 00:18:54.996 I learned from you. 371 00:18:54.996 --> 00:18:56.996 We can talk about gold now. 372 00:18:56.996 --> 00:19:00.442 So, Impala Platinum, that has grown 108% over the same period. 373 00:19:01.520 --> 00:19:06.020 Northern Platinum, 126% to date. 374 00:19:06.567 --> 00:19:11.098 And the one that really struggled up to the end of last year, Subhania Stillwater 375 00:19:11.632 --> 00:19:14.975 That has grown 175%. 376 00:19:15.177 --> 00:19:16.298 Neil from Foreigner Man. 377 00:19:16.919 --> 00:19:17.938 Well done, I say. 378 00:19:18.399 --> 00:19:19.099 Goodness me. 379 00:19:19.860 --> 00:19:20.560 Is he there yet? 380 00:19:20.560 --> 00:19:26.243 I know he sort of stepped down, but I don't know if he's officially stepped down 381 00:19:26.243 --> 00:19:26.302 as CEO, 382 00:19:26.344 --> 00:19:29.048 but I know he said he's finished. 383 00:19:29.251 --> 00:19:31.469 Oh, well, anyway, he built the whole thing. 384 00:19:32.016 --> 00:19:33.735 I hope he didn't sell everything yet. 385 00:19:34.032 --> 00:19:35.235 No, I doubt it. 386 00:19:35.282 --> 00:19:38.126 In fact, I'd say knowing him, he'd be buying more. 387 00:19:38.204 --> 00:19:39.589 but This is the point. 388 00:19:39.649 --> 00:19:46.094 Okay, you can talk 64%, it's the biggest producer, it's less sensitive to price 389 00:19:46.094 --> 00:19:48.094 moves, 390 00:19:48.094 --> 00:19:49.515 let's put it that way, and then you've got the others, 120, 130. 391 00:19:49.578 --> 00:19:56.000 The point is it sounds like a lot, but see where it came from and where it's come 392 00:19:56.000 --> 00:19:58.000 from now as well. 393 00:19:58.000 --> 00:20:01.125 And you think to yourself, yes, listening to the words of the CEO of the world's 394 00:20:01.125 --> 00:20:03.125 biggest producer, 395 00:20:03.125 --> 00:20:03.375 I think there's still some legs in this. 396 00:20:03.719 --> 00:20:04.419 So, yes. 397 00:20:04.700 --> 00:20:10.405 Go to your auxiliary mining companies that serve the primary mining industry, 398 00:20:10.526 --> 00:20:12.026 but don't ignore Platinum Skull. 399 00:20:12.108 --> 00:20:12.972 I know you love gold. 400 00:20:13.370 --> 00:20:14.792 Get a bit of white in there as well. 401 00:20:15.714 --> 00:20:16.414 No, no, no, no. 402 00:20:16.414 --> 00:20:20.057 I think we had this conversation, and 403 00:20:20.573 --> 00:20:27.386 I'm going to be an open book as well because we've had this conversation, I 404 00:20:27.386 --> 00:20:29.386 think, about a month or two months ago. 405 00:20:29.386 --> 00:20:32.948 It was literally just, I think, two weeks after Valterra. 406 00:20:33.748 --> 00:20:40.474 actually were unbundled out of Anglo-American. And remember, I told you, 407 00:20:40.474 --> 00:20:42.474 this is where we're up. 408 00:20:42.474 --> 00:20:43.075 I mean, we've had this conversation, same story. 409 00:20:43.419 --> 00:20:50.310 You could see the change of and it's also that the demand is just way, way more than 410 00:20:50.310 --> 00:20:52.310 the supply. 411 00:20:52.310 --> 00:20:52.591 But why are we there? 412 00:20:52.622 --> 00:20:57.794 I mean, a lot of people will say, you know, I'm so glad I rather had the Impala 413 00:20:57.794 --> 00:20:59.794 or Sabanias. 414 00:20:59.794 --> 00:21:03.013 Just remember, the amount of shares that suddenly hit the market, 415 00:21:03.400 --> 00:21:10.328 when it was unbundled out of anglo-american is massive yeah a massive 416 00:21:10.328 --> 00:21:12.328 massive massive so many people that 417 00:21:12.328 --> 00:21:16.871 held anglo-american that now said well i've already owned impala and or the other 418 00:21:17.793 --> 00:21:22.856 at the other pg encounters i'm not gonna have altera as well just flog it just get 419 00:21:22.856 --> 00:21:24.856 it out of there. 420 00:21:24.856 --> 00:21:26.777 And that had an overhang on the market. 421 00:21:26.857 --> 00:21:29.660 And that created, in my view, still an opportunity. 422 00:21:29.699 --> 00:21:30.399 So I agree. 423 00:21:30.500 --> 00:21:31.722 I agree still to this date. 424 00:21:32.121 --> 00:21:37.664 If any listener out there is interested in buying into a 425 00:21:38.406 --> 00:21:40.703 PGM-producing company, I mean, 426 00:21:40.937 --> 00:21:46.437 I do think Valtteri is looking attractive relative against any international peer. 427 00:21:46.781 --> 00:21:47.481 Very good. 428 00:21:47.750 --> 00:21:48.450 Okay. 429 00:21:48.450 --> 00:21:53.703 I had my day in the sun skunk with Valtteri. 430 00:21:54.018 --> 00:21:55.079 I won't mention it again. 431 00:21:55.159 --> 00:21:56.221 You'll mention it, of course. 432 00:21:56.240 --> 00:22:01.103 You'll say, by the way, Lindsay, Volterra's at 1,000 rand per share. 433 00:22:01.205 --> 00:22:01.905 Well done. 434 00:22:02.084 --> 00:22:03.264 And I'll say thank you very much. 435 00:22:03.811 --> 00:22:06.912 And yes, let's have a look at some prices, if we can. 436 00:22:06.951 --> 00:22:10.936 The dollar rand ahead of the Fed is 1795. 437 00:22:10.951 --> 00:22:14.561 That's a 1.4% rally for the US dollar. 438 00:22:14.576 --> 00:22:20.639 That is very much locally based on the rand with the anticipation of interest 439 00:22:20.639 --> 00:22:22.639 rates being cut tomorrow, I think. 440 00:22:22.639 --> 00:22:27.060 British pound against the rand is 23.85 and the euro rand is 441 00:22:27.161 --> 00:22:30.520 20.61 with the euro dollar 114.80. 442 00:22:31.083 --> 00:22:35.739 And that's a euro that has fallen by one and a quarter percent. 443 00:22:35.778 --> 00:22:37.442 That's a really, really big move. 444 00:22:37.739 --> 00:22:40.880 British pound against the US dollar is 133. 445 00:22:40.881 --> 00:22:44.224 OK, let's have a look now at some lovely commodities. 446 00:22:44.942 --> 00:22:46.458 Gold price not so lovely today. 447 00:22:46.520 --> 00:22:47.958 It's down $28. 448 00:22:48.099 --> 00:22:48.989 It's broken through. 449 00:22:49.446 --> 00:22:53.529 3,300 if my screen is correct, 3,299. 450 00:22:53.530 --> 00:22:54.951 So that's having a bit of an off day. 451 00:22:55.291 --> 00:22:56.572 That's currency related. 452 00:22:57.857 --> 00:22:58.756 What else have we got here? 453 00:22:59.092 --> 00:23:04.099 We've got platinum also down 2.4% weaker at 1,385. 454 00:23:04.545 --> 00:23:08.545 And palladium is down just around about half a percent at 1,272. 455 00:23:09.029 --> 00:23:10.920 The oil price has been doing well lately. 456 00:23:10.967 --> 00:23:12.404 Let's have a look at the update now. 457 00:23:12.826 --> 00:23:16.014 And this is from my CRB commodity index page. 458 00:23:16.185 --> 00:23:17.232 Oh, goodness me, look at this. 459 00:23:17.730 --> 00:23:22.433 $72.74 per barrel, up another third of a percent today. 460 00:23:22.695 --> 00:23:24.898 It's had a good run since we last spoke, Skulk. 461 00:23:25.198 --> 00:23:31.003 The West Texas crude, $69.45, also a third of a percent to the good. 462 00:23:31.120 --> 00:23:32.886 Anything else of note? 463 00:23:33.753 --> 00:23:34.800 Nothing that I can see. 464 00:23:35.284 --> 00:23:40.128 So we'll go to the U.S. 10-year bond, keenly watched after tonight's. 465 00:23:40.686 --> 00:23:41.386 Fed decision. 466 00:23:41.887 --> 00:23:43.328 Currently 436. 467 00:23:43.329 --> 00:23:45.031 It's unusual with the oil price doing what it's doing. 468 00:23:45.090 --> 00:23:47.211 I thought it would be in the 440s, but not to be. 469 00:23:47.274 --> 00:23:51.320 The salav continue, meanwhile, is trading merrily away at 470 00:23:51.797 --> 00:23:55.703 9.81%. What else have we got? 471 00:23:56.180 --> 00:23:57.617 S&P 500 futures. 472 00:23:58.070 --> 00:24:01.492 A snap to six-day winning streak yesterday, I think it was. 473 00:24:01.883 --> 00:24:05.727 And today is flat at 6,404. 474 00:24:05.728 --> 00:24:08.211 And that's the September futures. 475 00:24:08.789 --> 00:24:09.489 Bitcoin. 476 00:24:09.530 --> 00:24:14.115 i have to say that because apparently people buy it uh 118 477 00:24:14.173 --> 00:24:20.743 249.1 per coin that's up 0.7 on the day 478 00:24:20.845 --> 00:24:25.845 skulk um what went up and down on the jsc today please so 479 00:24:26.173 --> 00:24:32.954 i just wanna yeah i think your your plats did did really really well um and they 480 00:24:32.954 --> 00:24:33.108 they 481 00:24:33.314 --> 00:24:35.111 had a great day but despite the price 482 00:24:36.546 --> 00:24:43.113 despite despite the platinum price so so when we look at the the movies and shakers 483 00:24:43.113 --> 00:24:45.113 uh we had volterra up 484 00:24:45.113 --> 00:24:49.942 3.9 percent for today impala platinum three percent positive uh blue telecoms 485 00:24:50.223 --> 00:24:52.301 uh 2.8 northern 486 00:24:52.340 --> 00:24:59.004 platinum 2.7 and the the company i just mentioned earlier udeko up 2.7 percent 487 00:24:59.426 --> 00:25:05.942 yeah um and And then on the downside, man, METAIR, that was down 3.2%. 488 00:25:06.282 --> 00:25:09.286 Aspen just can't catch a break. 489 00:25:09.364 --> 00:25:12.950 I mean, man, oh, man, this company is just keeping the pressure going. 490 00:25:12.989 --> 00:25:14.747 2.6% down for today. 491 00:25:14.911 --> 00:25:21.036 Do you remember that day when I said to you, tell me about Aspen, Skulk. 492 00:25:21.075 --> 00:25:24.606 Is there some kind of corporate activity that I should know about? 493 00:25:24.638 --> 00:25:25.919 Why is the share down 30%? 494 00:25:25.934 --> 00:25:27.528 Do you remember that day? 495 00:25:28.122 --> 00:25:28.822 I remember. 496 00:25:28.841 --> 00:25:29.541 I remember. 497 00:25:29.541 --> 00:25:30.731 Because neither of us knew why. 498 00:25:30.778 --> 00:25:32.981 We thought it was some weird thing that happened. 499 00:25:32.982 --> 00:25:33.809 But no, it was real. 500 00:25:33.810 --> 00:25:34.950 It was a trading statement. 501 00:25:35.138 --> 00:25:40.778 the share price fell in the wild by 30%, and it's never recovered. 502 00:25:41.118 --> 00:25:43.259 You don't recover from that sort of shock very easily. 503 00:25:44.102 --> 00:25:45.079 No, no, no. 504 00:25:45.884 --> 00:25:47.923 And they've been in trouble. 505 00:25:48.102 --> 00:25:50.540 If you look at the past five years, 506 00:25:50.704 --> 00:25:56.524 they just kept on hitting bad weather among bad weather among bad weather. 507 00:25:56.587 --> 00:26:03.149 But I hope it gets on track again because it's been a darling in many, many 508 00:26:03.946 --> 00:26:10.880 share and fund portfolios and hopefully hopefully it could make a make a comeback 509 00:26:10.880 --> 00:26:12.880 i hope so because even sounds a good bloke yeah sorry 510 00:26:12.880 --> 00:26:14.880 go on Same story. 511 00:26:14.880 --> 00:26:19.091 Sasol also being under pressure today and also lately, making a little bit of a 512 00:26:19.091 --> 00:26:21.091 comeback from the 513 00:26:21.091 --> 00:26:25.701 50-rand levels, over 100 grand, I think, two or three weeks ago, and then caught 514 00:26:25.701 --> 00:26:27.701 all the way back again, 515 00:26:27.701 --> 00:26:28.404 making two steps forward, three steps back. 516 00:26:28.826 --> 00:26:33.732 But Sasol down 2% today, and then Anglo Gold, as you mentioned, Anglo Gold also 2% 517 00:26:34.045 --> 00:26:36.466 down with the gold price retracing. 518 00:26:37.154 --> 00:26:39.685 Just, I mean, I couldn't help. 519 00:26:40.348 --> 00:26:45.374 Getting back to Bang Bang's, a share price that just goes sideways. 520 00:26:46.273 --> 00:26:51.359 And I could not help thinking about, you know, 521 00:26:51.382 --> 00:26:53.421 companies that just goes nowhere. 522 00:26:53.422 --> 00:26:57.390 I mean, when you look at British American Tobacco Company, 523 00:26:57.765 --> 00:27:03.171 British American Tobacco Company in, let's go to 2013, 524 00:27:03.172 --> 00:27:06.921 the share price was around about the 550 levels. 525 00:27:06.937 --> 00:27:08.077 You know, fast forward. 526 00:27:08.952 --> 00:27:14.016 Five years later, 2019, 527 00:27:14.035 --> 00:27:17.723 it's trading 550 levels. 528 00:27:18.621 --> 00:27:24.981 Fast forward again to July last year, it's trading 550 levels. 529 00:27:25.809 --> 00:27:32.309 So it's been a company, great dividend payer, like ACI of old, 530 00:27:33.231 --> 00:27:37.121 great dividend payer, but the share price just don't go anywhere. 531 00:27:37.552 --> 00:27:44.357 And then suddenly it's as if a light switch just went on, hit some of the value 532 00:27:44.357 --> 00:27:46.357 buyers, 533 00:27:46.357 --> 00:27:46.639 trading screens. 534 00:27:47.162 --> 00:27:50.045 People start looking for defensives earlier this year. 535 00:27:50.123 --> 00:27:52.865 They like to buy the tobacco and the alcohol companies. 536 00:27:53.428 --> 00:27:57.459 And boom, I mean, there goes British American Tobacco Company. 537 00:27:57.818 --> 00:28:02.975 I mean, also a company year to date looking at, well, currently sitting at 44% 538 00:28:03.240 --> 00:28:04.959 positive for this year. 539 00:28:05.365 --> 00:28:06.100 And now... 540 00:28:06.456 --> 00:28:07.936 reaching new all-time highs. 541 00:28:07.976 --> 00:28:14.139 So it just shows you sometimes if a company has got good management or it's a 542 00:28:14.139 --> 00:28:16.139 good story bound, 543 00:28:16.139 --> 00:28:19.878 not that I say tobacco company, it's got a good story bound, but it's always been a 544 00:28:19.878 --> 00:28:21.878 well-managed company. 545 00:28:21.878 --> 00:28:27.354 Sometimes it's just wise to just stick it out because if you get out One day 546 00:28:27.354 --> 00:28:29.354 something will happen to it. 547 00:28:29.354 --> 00:28:31.229 Someone will buy it or it will break itself up or something into different 548 00:28:31.229 --> 00:28:33.229 divisions. 549 00:28:33.229 --> 00:28:37.688 And the real bulls and the people with the technical analysis leaning will say, 550 00:28:38.110 --> 00:28:39.735 it's been going sideways for 10 years. 551 00:28:39.751 --> 00:28:40.993 It's been building a base. 552 00:28:41.032 --> 00:28:41.735 That's what they'll say. 553 00:28:42.157 --> 00:28:43.313 It's been building a base. 554 00:28:43.336 --> 00:28:45.899 And when it breaks out of that base, watch out. 555 00:28:45.961 --> 00:28:46.899 It'll go shooting up. 556 00:28:47.055 --> 00:28:47.977 And they could be right. 557 00:28:48.118 --> 00:28:49.180 I haven't seen the graph. 558 00:28:49.508 --> 00:28:51.868 I'm just going by your 10-year comment earlier on. 559 00:28:51.869 --> 00:28:55.274 No, for sure, for sure. 560 00:28:55.275 --> 00:28:59.133 But it's been a frustrating ride for me, to say the least. 561 00:28:59.149 --> 00:29:01.227 I know I'm a long-term investor. 562 00:29:01.360 --> 00:29:07.886 but man this is testing my patience for sure last question from me i've got two 563 00:29:07.886 --> 00:29:09.886 questions actually i want the jse 564 00:29:09.886 --> 00:29:14.972 indices before i dash off but also i want to know did um shapiro when you were 565 00:29:14.972 --> 00:29:16.972 chatting together on television today mention 566 00:29:16.972 --> 00:29:20.581 luxury goods because gucci had a horrible trading statement or horrible set of 567 00:29:20.581 --> 00:29:22.581 results did 568 00:29:22.581 --> 00:29:26.409 he say anything about luxury goods no no no we didn't chat about that um 569 00:29:26.968 --> 00:29:28.490 But it's not a surprise to me. 570 00:29:28.831 --> 00:29:29.831 It's not really surprising. 571 00:29:30.131 --> 00:29:34.075 We've had this conversation on the likes of Richemont. 572 00:29:35.196 --> 00:29:39.063 And when you look through the Richemont results, which also came out, I think, a 573 00:29:39.063 --> 00:29:39.076 week or two ago, 574 00:29:39.922 --> 00:29:46.141 you could see that most of the good results were made up out of Cartier. 575 00:29:46.266 --> 00:29:52.079 I mean, if you strip out the other luxury goods in the Richemont stall, 576 00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:55.079 it was flat or negative, mostly negative. 577 00:29:55.560 --> 00:30:00.965 So, I mean, and we had this conversation, we're not going to have this conversation, 578 00:30:00.965 --> 00:30:02.965 but ultimately we're going to end up on gold again. 579 00:30:02.965 --> 00:30:07.649 But we did speculate that people are buying these watches, not necessarily to 580 00:30:07.649 --> 00:30:09.649 feel good, 581 00:30:09.649 --> 00:30:11.422 but most probably looking at some investment opportunity. 582 00:30:11.797 --> 00:30:16.938 Like they buy your typical Kruger coins or gold staffs and those kind of things. 583 00:30:17.266 --> 00:30:21.563 Most probably they're buying the Scottier watch because they're not buying the other 584 00:30:21.563 --> 00:30:23.563 luxury goods and Gucci. 585 00:30:23.563 --> 00:30:28.659 handbags and wallets those kind of things just shown again ah that's not that's not 586 00:30:28.659 --> 00:30:30.659 not not what what 587 00:30:30.659 --> 00:30:35.663 what um consumer out there is looking for clearly they're looking for something hard 588 00:30:35.663 --> 00:30:37.663 they're looking for something shiny 589 00:30:37.663 --> 00:30:42.171 and looking for something that could hold investment value that's it okay scalp give 590 00:30:42.171 --> 00:30:44.171 us the closing indices please on the jsc 591 00:30:44.171 --> 00:30:46.647 JSC today closed at 99,315 points. 592 00:30:46.666 --> 00:30:48.287 That was up 15 basis points. 593 00:30:48.549 --> 00:30:54.568 Resource index, in a day, just in negative durability, down 48 points, 594 00:30:54.569 --> 00:30:55.889 so six basis points. 595 00:30:56.951 --> 00:31:03.147 The industrial index, that was down 22 basis points, while the financial index 596 00:31:03.147 --> 00:31:05.147 were up 71 basis points. 597 00:31:05.147 --> 00:31:05.897 Even the SF property index had a solid day. 598 00:31:06.412 --> 00:31:08.631 They were up 90 basis points. 599 00:31:08.647 --> 00:31:09.897 We'll look at the value trader today. 600 00:31:10.350 --> 00:31:11.225 Let's quickly have a look. 601 00:31:11.428 --> 00:31:16.099 Oh not a bad day today we went over the 20 billion mark 21 billion were traded 602 00:31:16.459 --> 00:31:22.302 through the jse today not bad on a day when most people are waiting for the fed 603 00:31:22.302 --> 00:31:24.302 and also economic data from the 604 00:31:24.302 --> 00:31:28.263 states on thursday and friday of course got the jobs data on friday because it's 605 00:31:28.263 --> 00:31:30.263 the first friday of 606 00:31:30.263 --> 00:31:35.357 august sculpt thanks very much for your time as always thanks for listening to my 607 00:31:35.357 --> 00:31:37.357 pgm rant the the last one of 608 00:31:37.357 --> 00:31:39.888 the year and because I'll be too busy watching it go through a thousand 609 00:31:40.570 --> 00:31:47.437 up to 1200 1500 that's next year and ultimately peaking around 1750 i'm talking 610 00:31:47.437 --> 00:31:49.437 about valterra and this 611 00:31:49.437 --> 00:31:54.343 of course is a complete fantasy skulk low is a portfolio manager at psg wealth old 612 00:31:54.343 --> 00:31:56.343 oak in cape town and that 613 00:31:56.343 --> 00:32:00.757 was the five o'clock shadow the views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are 614 00:32:00.757 --> 00:32:02.757 those of lindsey williams and various 615 00:32:02.757 --> 00:32:07.616 contributors and do not reflect the policy position or opinion of any other agency 616 00:32:07.616 --> 00:32:09.616 organization employer 617 00:32:09.616 --> 00:32:11.784 or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 618 00:32:12.245 --> 00:32:19.212 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 619 00:32:19.212 --> 00:32:21.212 entity other than the speaker or the author. 620 00:32:21.212 --> 00:32:25.399 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 621 00:32:25.399 --> 00:32:27.399 change, revision, 622 00:32:27.399 --> 00:32:27.532 and rethinking at any time. 623 00:32:27.844 --> 00:32:30.266 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.