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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the five o'clock shadow.

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And I'm speaking to David Shapiro this
week from Sasfin Securities. Viv Govender

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can't make it today.

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David, it's the day before, not
Thanksgiving, Independence Day.

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It's funny, this big, beautiful bill,
which will go through once the Democrat

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speaker has stopped speaking.

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He's been speaking for five hours.

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as we speak, trying to delay the vote.

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But when you look at it, you think that
most of the American population doesn't

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like it.

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The polls say that.

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And it's supposed to be good for the
midterms, which are in early November next

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year, 2036.

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If the package doesn't increase growth and
wealth in the United States, then it will

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backfire on Trump, surely.

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Oh, yeah.

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I think there are a lot of things that are
up for testing.

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I'm surprised at the market.

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The market seems to have just brushed it
aside.

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The market is very firm at the moment.

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In fact, firmer than I thought it would
be.

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And it continues even now, you know, with
the jobs data coming out.

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But there are a lot of issues.

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I'm surprised there hasn't been much of an
outcry.

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And, you know, when you go through it,

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there's so many questions that are being
asked.

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I read a lot of stuff.

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I'll read the press.

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I'll read the Atlantic.

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In other words, not the Economist or FT,
which tend to be very conservative,

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down-the-road reporting.

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But here you get criticism.

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You get a lot of criticism against Trump,
very,

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very well-written articles.

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And they don't have much weight.

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No one really cares.

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Yes, they moan about how many people are
going to...

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lose their cover because of the Medicaid,
reduction in Medicaid, which has been,

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Trump tried in the first term, this is the
Obama, you know, this was his signature

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legislation.

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And I think Trump, all that he wanted to
do in the second term is get rid of this.

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You know, and yet, when you think about
it, I don't know enough.

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But when you look at the numbers, they say
that, you know, tens of millions of people

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are now not going to be covered.

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or have to take care of their own medical
aid.

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Probably they're working, whatever it is.

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But there'd be no protests in the street.

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You know, there's been no tearing down
buildings or blowing up pylons or

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whatever.

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It just seems to be going through okay.

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And the other one that captured my
attention was, you know,

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on his complete attack against renewable.

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Renewable.

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Yeah, the support that the government has
given.

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They've given subsidies over there.

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And obviously, he'll undo anything that
Obama did,

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and he'll undo anything that Biden did as
well.

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He is just so petty and so jealous,
particularly when it comes to Obama.

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And we know why, and we've discussed it
before.

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But it's just that he tears it apart.

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And we've got low-income earners and rural
hospitals.

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I mean, for goodness sake.

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What difference do they make?

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I mean, they provide a fantastic service,

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and they're getting a lot of their funding
taken away because of the big so-called

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beautiful bill.

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And people that earn $290,000 a year are
getting an extra $13,000

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because of tax cuts.

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And good luck to them, but it doesn't
quite seem fair when the poorest of the

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poor are not getting Medicaid.

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Yeah, I agree with you, and that's why I'm
saying, you know, I would have thought

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that there would have been,

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because this is the base that got Trump
in.

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You know, it was at the lower income, the
blue-collar workers that actually voted

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for him.

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So I don't know enough about it, you know,
to really put up a big protest.

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But it does seem to be pointed towards the
Democrats.

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And regarded as, their whole point is no
one's going to lose out, you know, to so

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corrupt.

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And, you know, there's a lot of attacks
around that.

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But I'm not in a position to really, you
know, debate it.

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I think a lot of people that funded his
campaign for his current term, he said to

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them, he said, if you give me

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$20, $30 million, I guarantee I will look
after you in my first year.

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And that is what's happened.

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He doesn't care.

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He's just said he keeps his promise with
the very, very rich.

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And...

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there.

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It's a promise that he's kept, but the
rest of the promises he's broken.

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He's got everybody in his cabinet,
extremely wealthy men, even Besant.

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He might not be a billionaire, but he's
got a few hundred million dollars.

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And so on.

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And I think...

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Very, very wealthy cabinet.

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So there's no blue-collar workers there.

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There's no earthy people.

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So that's what surprises me.

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And look, it's not getting through that
easily.

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These are marginal votes.

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Yes.

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You know, they won the Senate by Vance had
to come in and give a deciding vote as

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vice president.

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It was 50-50.

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So there are people within the Republican
Party who are protesting.

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And it's simply because they're reflecting
the people in their constituency.

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So it's, you know, it's, that's how
American politics works.

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Well, if we win by one vote, I suppose
it's like taking penalties in a football

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game.

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You know, it's one penalty decides the
shootout.

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So, but this is a lot more far-reaching.

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Anyway, but the market's just gathering,
you know, keep going on.

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Also, some of the economic data helping
them, as we see with jobs now,

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more jobs were created than people
thought, no matter where they are, you

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know, whether it's in the hospitality,
whether it's government.

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But the sentiment indicators, you know, it
soothes sentiment.

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And we're at another all-time high on the
S&P.

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NASDAQ keeps going higher as well, driven
by AI, which I think is just going on a

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course of its own.

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That's a positive statement, you know,
saying, OK, whatever happens.

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In politics, whoever bombs whoever, it
doesn't matter.

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We are just kind of grinding.

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Just the one point I meant to put out.

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I just noted it here.

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If we look at the S&P today, you know,
talking about renewables and talking about

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the problems,

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it's funny that the three energy companies
that I'm watching, four, Vistress, Quanta,

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GE,

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Vinnova, and NextEra, and all of those are
up pretty well today.

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They're up strongly, over 3%, 3%, 4%.

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I don't know how you can come out.

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They're power companies.

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They provide electricity.

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You know, all the issues around almost
like a utility.

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But a lot of them are geared up to the
grid.

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So they're taking off, you know, and doing
well.

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I think a lot of it is driven by the need
for power for the data center.

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So I...

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Those are the ones I thought might take a
bit of a knock.

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They might come down on the bull, but
maybe called that wrong, seem to be taking

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momentum.

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So, Lindsay, we've got to go through the
bull again and say, okay, what happened?

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Are there any concessions for power
companies, for renewables?

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Because I think in all of them there is an
element of renewables.

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Yeah, it's interesting.

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We'll find out, not overnight, because the
markets have really discounted that fact.

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The fact that perhaps it's a
growth-friendly bill, but also they're

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looking at

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Powell, and Powell has indicated that
maybe there's going to be an interest rate

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cut, and that's already in the market as
well, I think,

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David.

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Yes, too.

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In fact, what happened today is that they
discounted July.

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Because of the stronger employment
numbers, there was a hint.

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that there might be...

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What were the employment numbers?

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Of course, they've been brought forward
because tomorrow is Friday and that's a

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public holiday.

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What were they?

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147,000.

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And I think the view was 106,000, you
know, thereabouts.

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So it's a good number.

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And it's low-level jobs.

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You know, it's...

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Burger flippers, yeah.

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Remember this was in the holiday season
where people are looking for waiters and

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they were looking for people to

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serve in the...

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Park cars and things like that.

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Normally students do it, but the students
are going home.

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But still, you know, whoever is there
earns money, and it shows you that the job

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market is steady.

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And, you know, so that's taken away the
possibility of a July rate reduction.

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So September is now 75%.

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As you say, that's baked in.

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And there could be one, what's it,
October, November.

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hmm okay yeah but the market yeah yeah all
right well it's vulnerable to any

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bad news but at the moment it's just
getting good news i did read something and

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this this is more ideological than it is

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economic i read something it was on
linkedin and how stupid i didn't save it

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was excellently written it was five points
about

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democracy and how democracy is being
denuded in the united states of america

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and the fifth point was that

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when you start to When there's the cult of
the leader and you vote for the leader

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rather than the

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party and the people, then you've got a
problem.

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And they're making the point that that's
exactly what people are doing.

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They're voting for people that matter.

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The lawmakers are voting for Trump because
they're scared of Trump and they're voting

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for the cult of Trump and

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not for the greater population, which is
why the big beautiful bill has gone

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through.

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There were five Republicans that weren't
going to vote for it.

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And the Speaker of the House and Trump got
on the phone to them this morning, their

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time, and said, now look here,

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this is what's happening.

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This is what's going to happen to you if
you don't, etc.

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And of course, it'll go through.

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So it's very interesting, David.

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I don't know if they're making too much of
it,

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but democracy not being the same as it was
when the founding fathers wrote it all

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down.

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No.

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Nowhere near there.

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I must tell you something.

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I'm reading about Washington at the
moment, and it was by chance.

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I didn't even consider that.

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It's 250 years since the formation of the
U.S. Army.

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That was the first battles against the
British.

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And in 1776 was the Declaration of
Independence.

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So it's 250 years next year.

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But it was just something popped up
because when I was in Boston, saw

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monuments there and started to read.

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And he was a remarkable man,

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had no interest in his own popularity or
wanting to run the country.

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He did his duty.

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And when it was done, he was done.

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And I don't think there's been a president
subsequent to that.

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Look, there was a lot of infighting from
Madison and from

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Jefferson and Adams, John Adams and so on,
you know, even around those days.

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But I think the quality of men, they
genuinely...

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want, you know, they were genuinely for
the people and listened to the people and

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did everything for the people,

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which is in the Constitution, I think, or
certainly in the Declaration of

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Independence.

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And I think it's changed so dramatically
since then.

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You know what?

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It has to change, I suppose, you know,
250, when was it, 1776?

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A long time ago, 250 years or so.

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But the destruction of the basic
principles is what the Trump.

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The Trump agenda seems to be worshipping
the dictator, which is what he is.

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Yeah, well, it is like that.

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And I always had respect for America in
the sense that you would get bipartisan

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votes

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that people would meet and would really
reflect the wishes or the feelings of the

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entire population.

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It's not like that anymore.

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And it's changed dramatically.

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00:12:40.778 --> 00:12:43.091
I don't know whether it's the demographics
that have changed.

241
00:12:45.102 --> 00:12:46.003
that are causing it.

242
00:12:46.083 --> 00:12:52.247
But I'm saying that when I go there, I
feel two sides.

243
00:12:52.669 --> 00:12:57.317
In other words, this is Liverpool versus
Man United kind of thing.

244
00:12:57.973 --> 00:13:03.395
Two hostile teams facing each other and
hostile fans wanting to beat each other

245
00:13:03.395 --> 00:13:03.705
up.

246
00:13:04.348 --> 00:13:06.567
That kind of story.

247
00:13:06.598 --> 00:13:07.661
There's nowhere in the middle.

248
00:13:07.989 --> 00:13:10.786
No one meets or no one sits around the
table.

249
00:13:11.583 --> 00:13:12.864
even if you're a supporter.

250
00:13:13.321 --> 00:13:17.988
You don't sit around the table and discuss
things in a partisan way.

251
00:13:18.308 --> 00:13:22.714
You know, you might, and that's what I
find.

252
00:13:22.753 --> 00:13:28.019
So, you know, when you go to a dinner
party, boy, you've got the people on the

253
00:13:28.019 --> 00:13:30.019
left and people on the right.

254
00:13:30.019 --> 00:13:32.019
I never go to dinner parties.

255
00:13:32.019 --> 00:13:33.527
It's not the main reason I don't go to
dinner parties.

256
00:13:33.528 --> 00:13:36.839
The main reason is I don't get invited to
dinner parties, but that's another story.

257
00:13:36.917 --> 00:13:40.073
I'm talking pathetically.

258
00:13:40.620 --> 00:13:41.320
I know.

259
00:13:43.842 --> 00:13:45.943
That's how people feel about it, you know.

260
00:13:46.565 --> 00:13:50.553
And if you know someone's a Trumpian or
something like that, you just shut your

261
00:13:50.553 --> 00:13:50.909
mouth.

262
00:13:51.709 --> 00:13:53.475
Because you're not going to make any
headway.

263
00:13:53.975 --> 00:13:56.092
You just carry on and talk.

264
00:13:56.334 --> 00:13:57.998
I find it very difficult to do that.

265
00:13:58.053 --> 00:14:00.240
But anyway, David, let's have a look at
the markets now.

266
00:14:00.506 --> 00:14:02.834
The dollar round is very steady indeed.

267
00:14:02.881 --> 00:14:04.615
1751.

268
00:14:04.897 --> 00:14:07.178
The British pound against the round 2390.

269
00:14:07.209 --> 00:14:09.443
Euro round 2059.

270
00:14:09.813 --> 00:14:13.858
Eurodollar is 1.1760, which is a euro
that's fallen a third of a percent.

271
00:14:14.459 --> 00:14:16.498
British pound, 1.3650.

272
00:14:16.499 --> 00:14:20.666
The gold price, it's down $20 an ounce to
33.27.

273
00:14:20.667 --> 00:14:25.510
The platinum price, 13.77, which is down
21 or 1.5%.

274
00:14:25.511 --> 00:14:31.229
And palladium has also fallen by 1.3% to
11.48.

275
00:14:31.260 --> 00:14:34.963
Other commodities, oil price, I can't make
up my mind about the oil price.

276
00:14:34.979 --> 00:14:38.260
I must admit, the market's made up its
mind today, doesn't like it.

277
00:14:38.545 --> 00:14:41.588
Down three quarters of a percent to
$68.60.

278
00:14:41.589 --> 00:14:42.988
That's for Brent crude.

279
00:14:43.430 --> 00:14:46.895
And West Texas, $66.66.

280
00:14:46.910 --> 00:14:47.652
Ooh, dangerous.

281
00:14:47.973 --> 00:14:49.512
1.2% weaker.

282
00:14:49.934 --> 00:14:54.965
And other commodities pretty much gyrating
ahead of the long weekend.

283
00:14:55.059 --> 00:14:58.184
The South African 10-year bond doing so
nicely.

284
00:14:58.185 --> 00:14:59.840
Look at that, 10 basis points better.

285
00:15:00.231 --> 00:15:02.434
973.

286
00:15:02.435 --> 00:15:03.135
U.S.

287
00:15:03.135 --> 00:15:06.512
10-year, 4.33%, which is up 4%.

288
00:15:06.705 --> 00:15:13.633
basis points and S&P 500 futures doing so
well on their highs up 51 points the

289
00:15:14.172 --> 00:15:19.414
yeah September futures 6,326 or 0.8
percent higher

290
00:15:20.117 --> 00:15:23.906
David these are massive numbers and tell
me what's happening to tech please

291
00:15:24.484 --> 00:15:31.453
AI tech AI shares are very strong so maybe
if you go through the market now and I'll

292
00:15:31.453 --> 00:15:31.512
just give you

293
00:15:32.031 --> 00:15:32.731
some numbers.

294
00:15:32.875 --> 00:15:35.172
NVIDIA keeps going, making new highs.

295
00:15:35.250 --> 00:15:35.950
Well done.

296
00:15:35.950 --> 00:15:40.183
up 1.25%, 159, it did touch 160.

297
00:15:40.304 --> 00:15:42.207
Microsoft strong, up 1.6%.

298
00:15:42.949 --> 00:15:44.789
Apple up 1%.

299
00:15:44.851 --> 00:15:45.617
We haven't seen that.

300
00:15:45.632 --> 00:15:49.281
But right across the board, very strong,
very strong semiconductors.

301
00:15:49.624 --> 00:15:55.156
There was also talk that, you know,
between America and China, they're easing.

302
00:15:55.820 --> 00:15:59.100
restrictions there, but, you know, and
allowing,

303
00:15:59.461 --> 00:16:03.123
I'm trying to think of the right wording
that they had just to get it right.

304
00:16:05.498 --> 00:16:12.319
Ease restrictions on critical tech,
license requirements for chip design, in

305
00:16:12.319 --> 00:16:14.319
other words, easing those issues.

306
00:16:14.319 --> 00:16:15.131
So we have seen, we saw Samsung up quite a
lot.

307
00:16:15.163 --> 00:16:19.803
We've seen all the chip stocks here,
Taiwan semiconductors, Broadcom, all

308
00:16:19.803 --> 00:16:20.050
better.

309
00:16:20.241 --> 00:16:23.366
So it's, Lindsay, it's been solely.

310
00:16:24.188 --> 00:16:30.988
the tech market and we spoil for choice
you start to look below the heavyweights

311
00:16:30.988 --> 00:16:32.988
you know i'm talking about the

312
00:16:32.988 --> 00:16:37.851
trillion dollar companies and you see a
lot of those in the supply chain a lot of

313
00:16:37.851 --> 00:16:39.851
smaller companies in the supply chain uh
there's

314
00:16:39.851 --> 00:16:44.851
been very very strong gains there's a lot
of activity around it is it is dominating

315
00:16:44.851 --> 00:16:46.851
the market

316
00:16:46.851 --> 00:16:51.039
the other companies you know the banks and
the retailers and and all of those are

317
00:16:51.039 --> 00:16:51.114
mixed,

318
00:16:51.211 --> 00:16:53.820
but they're coming knowingly on a kind
of...

319
00:16:54.756 --> 00:16:57.656
participation that those other big
companies have had.

320
00:16:57.676 --> 00:16:58.858
Are you selling any, David?

321
00:16:58.897 --> 00:17:01.037
Are you one of these people that says to
Mr.

322
00:17:01.076 --> 00:17:02.076
Johnson, Mr.

323
00:17:02.119 --> 00:17:07.881
Johnson, your NVIDIA holding is now above
the 5% that was our target.

324
00:17:07.897 --> 00:17:12.725
It's now 5.8%, so I'm selling some down to
get you down to the 5%.

325
00:17:13.115 --> 00:17:14.287
Do you work like that?

326
00:17:14.865 --> 00:17:17.975
No, I don't work like that.

327
00:17:17.976 --> 00:17:18.676
I don't.

328
00:17:19.240 --> 00:17:19.975
You know why?

329
00:17:20.178 --> 00:17:23.100
I look at it and say, is there momentum
behind it?

330
00:17:23.240 --> 00:17:23.940
Hmm.

331
00:17:24.144 --> 00:17:26.566
going up, you know, can it continue like
this?

332
00:17:27.348 --> 00:17:34.232
And I know that it's high and I know that
a day is going to come where something

333
00:17:34.232 --> 00:17:34.370
will

334
00:17:34.370 --> 00:17:40.928
happen that will knock it back a bit
because, you know, it'll be challenged

335
00:17:40.928 --> 00:17:42.928
like we've seen with all the other tech
companies.

336
00:17:42.928 --> 00:17:44.928
Well, it did happen, didn't it?

337
00:17:44.928 --> 00:17:47.912
Because it went to a record high which was
close to 150 and then went back below 100

338
00:17:47.912 --> 00:17:49.912
at one stage, I think.

339
00:17:49.912 --> 00:17:53.037
Remember DeepSeek and also a lot of
restrictions on selling of tech.

340
00:17:53.188 --> 00:17:53.909
to China.

341
00:17:54.069 --> 00:17:55.151
Yes, it goes through that.

342
00:17:55.450 --> 00:18:01.616
But when it no longer makes the best chips
in the world and challenges come, yeah,

343
00:18:02.217 --> 00:18:02.999
then we'll get out.

344
00:18:03.319 --> 00:18:10.061
But what's happened though, and why I say
that, you know, if it's a winner, if I was

345
00:18:10.061 --> 00:18:12.061
going to buy stock for other clients,

346
00:18:12.061 --> 00:18:17.045
which I will still do, why must I sell,
you know, why must I sell yours if I'm

347
00:18:17.045 --> 00:18:19.045
going to buy them for some new clients?

348
00:18:19.045 --> 00:18:21.045
Why must I sell?

349
00:18:21.045 --> 00:18:23.045
Diversification, David.

350
00:18:23.045 --> 00:18:25.045
That's what people will say.

351
00:18:25.045 --> 00:18:27.045
We'll say, we said 5%.

352
00:18:27.045 --> 00:18:29.045
You can't go above 5%.

353
00:18:29.045 --> 00:18:31.045
We're above 5%, so we're selling it down.

354
00:18:31.045 --> 00:18:33.045
That's what traditional fund managers do.

355
00:18:33.045 --> 00:18:35.045
Yeah.

356
00:18:35.045 --> 00:18:37.045
Now, that is traditional because it's set
in the guidelines that they get.

357
00:18:37.045 --> 00:18:39.045
They all set guidelines, and they stick to
it.

358
00:18:39.045 --> 00:18:41.045
But, I mean,

359
00:18:41.045 --> 00:18:44.123
it's been a phenomenal it's really been a
phenomenal stock.

360
00:18:44.233 --> 00:18:46.467
And I can't yeah, it staggered me.

361
00:18:47.445 --> 00:18:54.333
I think in some of our portfolios, it's as
much as 20%, but we keep knocking it back

362
00:18:54.333 --> 00:18:56.333
to 15% and then it goes up to 20% again.

363
00:18:56.333 --> 00:19:01.137
So, look, you know, I'm open-minded about
this.

364
00:19:01.200 --> 00:19:02.239
I'm not dogmatic.

365
00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:08.848
I'm not a Bitcoin person, you know, so
this is going to a million, you know, and

366
00:19:08.848 --> 00:19:10.848
never sell those cards.

367
00:19:10.848 --> 00:19:12.848
When it's time to sell.

368
00:19:12.848 --> 00:19:15.473
Lindsay, you know, you have to watch this
market carefully.

369
00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:20.764
Even though you don't take, you know,

370
00:19:20.783 --> 00:19:25.947
even though you don't trade on a
day-to-day basis, and I might not trade

371
00:19:25.947 --> 00:19:27.947
for a year, two years, three years,

372
00:19:27.947 --> 00:19:29.752
you have to watch very, very carefully
every day.

373
00:19:30.213 --> 00:19:33.822
That's the discipline that I kind of
impose upon myself.

374
00:19:34.557 --> 00:19:35.463
Just read.

375
00:19:35.838 --> 00:19:38.947
Yeah, but you don't sell and you don't
buy.

376
00:19:39.088 --> 00:19:42.401
So, I mean, watching is one thing, acting
is another, David.

377
00:19:42.526 --> 00:19:43.322
You don't often act.

378
00:19:43.323 --> 00:19:44.166
I mean, you're not an actor.

379
00:19:44.220 --> 00:19:50.645
active portfolio manager are you there's
not much churn in your accounts we're not

380
00:19:50.645 --> 00:19:52.645
at all absolutely not at all

381
00:19:52.645 --> 00:19:57.852
but i mean that that's what i'm saying so
it's not as though we just you know we're

382
00:19:57.852 --> 00:19:59.852
negligent or reckless or

383
00:19:59.852 --> 00:20:04.305
donkey no watch every day the news
headlines go through them you know is

384
00:20:04.305 --> 00:20:06.305
there anything today that

385
00:20:06.305 --> 00:20:11.539
you know that should make me change my
mind and or change the portfolio is there

386
00:20:11.539 --> 00:20:13.539
anything and you go through it what what

387
00:20:13.539 --> 00:20:15.706
what i do is also keep a very narrow range
of companies in the universe.

388
00:20:15.707 --> 00:20:21.892
So it's no more than 30 businesses, 15 to
30-odd, maybe a little bit more.

389
00:20:22.111 --> 00:20:23.009
You're watching the others.

390
00:20:23.189 --> 00:20:23.892
I'm watching.

391
00:20:24.134 --> 00:20:26.033
It doesn't mean I don't watch what else is
happening.

392
00:20:26.095 --> 00:20:30.205
But that allows you to keep control of
clients' portfolios.

393
00:20:30.283 --> 00:20:31.080
Tell me another thing.

394
00:20:31.127 --> 00:20:33.783
Talking about clients, and don't think I'm
probing here.

395
00:20:33.877 --> 00:20:35.689
It's of great interest to me.

396
00:20:35.752 --> 00:20:36.986
You've got a great reputation.

397
00:20:37.283 --> 00:20:38.423
You put your name out there.

398
00:20:38.470 --> 00:20:39.705
You enjoy chatting.

399
00:20:39.877 --> 00:20:41.517
You're an enthusiastic chatterbox.

400
00:20:41.830 --> 00:20:43.095
You wouldn't do it otherwise.

401
00:20:44.333 --> 00:20:46.017
But you do have a very high profile.

402
00:20:46.398 --> 00:20:51.706
And from what I understand, although I've
never asked what you've earned compound

403
00:20:51.706 --> 00:20:53.706
over the years,

404
00:20:53.706 --> 00:20:53.769
but I think you've done very well for your
clients.

405
00:20:53.988 --> 00:20:55.316
Do you get new clients, Dave?

406
00:20:55.370 --> 00:20:56.714
Do you accept new clients?

407
00:20:58.639 --> 00:20:59.339
We do.

408
00:20:59.339 --> 00:21:03.002
It's not easy because there's not a lot of
wealth being created.

409
00:21:05.006 --> 00:21:07.431
And so we're picking them up.

410
00:21:07.470 --> 00:21:14.377
The other thing is you've got to be very
careful about who you pick up because

411
00:21:14.377 --> 00:21:16.377
they've got to share your philosophy.

412
00:21:16.595 --> 00:21:19.736
Lindsay, it takes five years to give them
the return,

413
00:21:20.455 --> 00:21:24.220
five to ten years before your skills come
through.

414
00:21:25.564 --> 00:21:26.689
For me, it's daunting.

415
00:21:26.834 --> 00:21:28.075
to get into the market now.

416
00:21:28.815 --> 00:21:34.501
I mean, oh boy, you get a new client who
says, here's 5, 10, 15 million, you know.

417
00:21:37.122 --> 00:21:38.224
Put it into portfolio.

418
00:21:38.225 --> 00:21:40.130
You say, oh, okay.

419
00:21:41.388 --> 00:21:42.591
You know.

420
00:21:42.592 --> 00:21:45.919
Yeah, you're buying NVIDIA at $160 a
share.

421
00:21:45.920 --> 00:21:46.620
Yeah.

422
00:21:46.620 --> 00:21:49.544
You think to yourself, oh, gosh,
difficult.

423
00:21:50.763 --> 00:21:51.513
Very difficult.

424
00:21:52.966 --> 00:21:54.794
That's why I'm saying you've got to give
us time.

425
00:21:55.341 --> 00:22:00.305
and People are, you know, you get good
clients, but people can be impatient.

426
00:22:00.344 --> 00:22:06.829
They do watch their wealth on a day-to-day
basis, simply because most of the people

427
00:22:06.829 --> 00:22:08.829
who've got money are elderly,

428
00:22:08.829 --> 00:22:09.735
you know, coming to the end of their
working life.

429
00:22:10.337 --> 00:22:12.032
And that's a tricky thing.

430
00:22:12.063 --> 00:22:15.235
So, you know, we pay a lot of attention to
clients.

431
00:22:15.423 --> 00:22:21.204
If I was running a mutual fund, you know,
you buy and sell your shares, you do what

432
00:22:21.204 --> 00:22:21.373
you're doing,

433
00:22:21.485 --> 00:22:24.391
but you never come face-to-face with a
client.

434
00:22:24.746 --> 00:22:27.068
But that's the discipline.

435
00:22:27.069 --> 00:22:34.037
That's a discipline they lack because when
you've done something wrong, that client

436
00:22:34.037 --> 00:22:36.037
reminds you all the time.

437
00:22:36.037 --> 00:22:38.763
When you run a mutual fund or a unit trust
or an ETF, you don't give a damn.

438
00:22:38.880 --> 00:22:43.818
You do something wrong, well, you're off
the hook because no one's going to get you

439
00:22:43.818 --> 00:22:45.818
because you never see the

440
00:22:45.818 --> 00:22:45.974
clients whose money you have played with.

441
00:22:46.412 --> 00:22:52.318
And I say played with or been frivolous
with, but when you've got a private client

442
00:22:52.318 --> 00:22:54.318
in front of you sitting across the desk.

443
00:22:54.318 --> 00:22:55.715
That's a massive discipline for a
portfolio manager.

444
00:22:56.194 --> 00:23:02.594
If you've got to explain to that client
exactly why you bought Nova Nordisk or

445
00:23:02.594 --> 00:23:02.819
something,

446
00:23:02.819 --> 00:23:08.540
which is down 30% or 40%, as you know,
well, blah, blah, blah, you know.

447
00:23:08.541 --> 00:23:09.805
Yes, and they're entitled to know.

448
00:23:10.118 --> 00:23:11.071
Of course they are.

449
00:23:11.915 --> 00:23:16.586
Okay, David, let's have a look at some of
the moves on the JSC today because this is

450
00:23:16.586 --> 00:23:18.586
the 5 o'clock shadow.

451
00:23:18.586 --> 00:23:20.586
I have got Remgrove.

452
00:23:20.586 --> 00:23:22.586
up 4.25%.

453
00:23:22.586 --> 00:23:24.586
Trueworths up 3.75%.

454
00:23:24.586 --> 00:23:26.586
You don't see those names at the top very
much.

455
00:23:26.586 --> 00:23:28.586
Pan-African Resources up 3.3%.

456
00:23:28.586 --> 00:23:28.913
Life Healthcare has gained by 3.2%.

457
00:23:28.928 --> 00:23:33.780
And TFG, the old Fashini Group, up 3.1%.

458
00:23:33.781 --> 00:23:40.428
So is this an interest rate story, the
fact that we've got two major retailers in

459
00:23:40.428 --> 00:23:42.428
the top five, David?

460
00:23:42.428 --> 00:23:47.897
It's odd because retailers have come under
a lot of pressure recently, as have the

461
00:23:47.897 --> 00:23:48.034
banks.

462
00:23:48.206 --> 00:23:49.868
And that's why it's interesting to see.

463
00:23:49.967 --> 00:23:52.010
I'm not quite sure what the motivation,

464
00:23:52.090 --> 00:23:58.717
whether it was the RAND that is picking up
strength at $17.50 that's given people the

465
00:23:59.217 --> 00:24:03.498
enthusiasm to get into that market or
whether it appears cheap.

466
00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:04.764
I think it's cheap.

467
00:24:05.295 --> 00:24:06.998
When I say I think it's cheap,

468
00:24:07.045 --> 00:24:13.858
I think it's because there's a perception
that these shares are cheap that you're

469
00:24:13.858 --> 00:24:15.858
starting to find people

470
00:24:15.858 --> 00:24:17.858
buying it.

471
00:24:17.858 --> 00:24:19.858
Lindsay, this is...

472
00:24:19.858 --> 00:24:21.858
We're in a very speculative market.

473
00:24:21.858 --> 00:24:23.858
We have been and always are.

474
00:24:23.858 --> 00:24:28.658
And there's a huge amount of money that
pushes money, that pushes shares up and

475
00:24:28.658 --> 00:24:30.658
down each day.

476
00:24:30.658 --> 00:24:33.017
And so it's very hard to read it on a
day-to-day basis.

477
00:24:33.502 --> 00:24:37.439
But I think the retailers here have been
under pressure.

478
00:24:37.548 --> 00:24:38.767
Trueworths, Mr.

479
00:24:38.845 --> 00:24:40.002
Price, all of them.

480
00:24:40.127 --> 00:24:43.970
Even ShopRite, I think, is negative on the
year, if you looked at ShopRite.

481
00:24:44.062 --> 00:24:45.223
Certainly two of them, Mr.

482
00:24:45.262 --> 00:24:46.423
Price, and there might be others.

483
00:24:47.282 --> 00:24:52.001
Our big miners, our diversified miners,
are kind of flack to down on the year.

484
00:24:52.642 --> 00:24:54.806
And banks also know where to be seen.

485
00:24:55.087 --> 00:24:59.462
You know, if they're up, I think Capitec
might be the best performer.

486
00:25:00.071 --> 00:25:02.587
You know, there's a story I have to tell
you if I progress.

487
00:25:05.493 --> 00:25:10.853
It's quite interesting because if you
understand the history of Capitec,

488
00:25:12.062 --> 00:25:14.942
I do, but mainly through your wisdom.

489
00:25:16.204 --> 00:25:19.844
Well, Happy Tech was formed when APSA was
formed.

490
00:25:20.384 --> 00:25:25.868
Well, when APSA, which was Trust Bank and
Volkskasse, the big Afrikaans banks,

491
00:25:27.368 --> 00:25:28.282
formed APSA.

492
00:25:28.532 --> 00:25:32.954
And people don't realize that APSA means
the Amalgamated Banks of Southern Africa.

493
00:25:33.251 --> 00:25:33.951
That's right.

494
00:25:34.313 --> 00:25:35.969
So they were amalgamated banks.

495
00:25:36.188 --> 00:25:37.469
I'm trying to think who else was there.

496
00:25:37.532 --> 00:25:40.641
Trust Bank, Volkskasse, yeah.

497
00:25:40.830 --> 00:25:41.530
Who else?

498
00:25:41.530 --> 00:25:42.010
Anyway.

499
00:25:43.091 --> 00:25:44.394
Which was the one that went bang?

500
00:25:44.494 --> 00:25:45.876
Which was the one that went bang?

501
00:25:45.877 --> 00:25:46.577
Oh.

502
00:25:46.577 --> 00:25:48.798
Oh.

503
00:25:48.799 --> 00:25:49.499
I'm trying to think.

504
00:25:49.499 --> 00:25:50.197
You got me.

505
00:25:52.083 --> 00:25:54.505
But Bull and Bank.

506
00:25:55.316 --> 00:25:56.397
was kind of discarded.

507
00:25:56.958 --> 00:26:01.883
You know, Burland Bank was not included
and the shell became,

508
00:26:02.785 --> 00:26:05.250
was up for grabs and that became Capitec.

509
00:26:05.265 --> 00:26:06.164
Okay.

510
00:26:06.165 --> 00:26:07.148
And Capitec, yeah.

511
00:26:07.929 --> 00:26:14.531
So Capitec had no, you know, it had the
best computers because it could start from

512
00:26:14.531 --> 00:26:14.700
zero.

513
00:26:14.700 --> 00:26:16.484
It had no legacy issues at all.

514
00:26:17.031 --> 00:26:18.531
You know, there was nothing holding it
back.

515
00:26:19.015 --> 00:26:22.375
It didn't have the structures that the
other banks had, you know.

516
00:26:22.406 --> 00:26:23.906
In every Dorpy, there was a...

517
00:26:24.632 --> 00:26:28.337
On the corner, one was a Volkskasse and
the other was a trust bank and so on.

518
00:26:30.259 --> 00:26:33.263
And, you know, they started at a very low
level.

519
00:26:34.724 --> 00:26:35.584
Bank of Borland.

520
00:26:36.263 --> 00:26:39.466
Today, you look at the market cap.

521
00:26:41.341 --> 00:26:44.873
Market cap of APSA, what's it, 150
billion?

522
00:26:44.874 --> 00:26:45.574
Yeah.

523
00:26:46.248 --> 00:26:47.935
The market cap of Capitec.

524
00:26:47.982 --> 00:26:48.682
Oh, what is it?

525
00:26:48.998 --> 00:26:49.698
400.

526
00:26:50.998 --> 00:26:52.076
400 billion.

527
00:26:53.154 --> 00:26:56.292
It's… Just below first-rand in terms of
market cap.

528
00:26:57.010 --> 00:27:00.756
So, I mean, you know, not being dragged
down by history.

529
00:27:01.276 --> 00:27:04.577
It's been a remarkable, remarkable
history.

530
00:27:04.578 --> 00:27:07.178
It's been a remarkable run and success
story.

531
00:27:07.780 --> 00:27:11.327
But, I mean, no one believes that this was
the old Bank of Burland.

532
00:27:12.670 --> 00:27:18.967
It was so funny because we were just
chatting about this morning and looked at

533
00:27:18.967 --> 00:27:20.967
some of the Bank of Burland adverts from
the

534
00:27:20.967 --> 00:27:22.092
1980s. It was...

535
00:27:23.785 --> 00:27:28.409
remarkable how the dynamics have changed.

536
00:27:28.410 --> 00:27:30.690
It's interesting you say it's a
speculative market as well.

537
00:27:31.655 --> 00:27:36.819
I suppose when it comes to retailers, and
just to finish this conversation, you say

538
00:27:36.819 --> 00:27:36.840
they're cheap.

539
00:27:37.155 --> 00:27:39.936
They're going to have to be very cheap to
entice you in, David.

540
00:27:40.686 --> 00:27:43.061
No, I'm not going in.

541
00:27:43.186 --> 00:27:43.886
You know why?

542
00:27:43.886 --> 00:27:49.593
They're well run, which means they're not
making any kind of first of all,

543
00:27:49.594 --> 00:27:51.046
there's no demand for credit.

544
00:27:51.499 --> 00:27:54.529
Secondly, they're not creating crypto.

545
00:27:55.148 --> 00:27:57.767
So it's just their capital.

546
00:27:57.810 --> 00:27:59.650
They make a decent return on their
capital.

547
00:27:59.689 --> 00:28:02.791
So from that point of view, you get a very
high dividend yield.

548
00:28:02.830 --> 00:28:05.510
But I don't think I could exist on
dividend yield.

549
00:28:07.033 --> 00:28:08.752
I'm not a dividend yield person.

550
00:28:09.392 --> 00:28:10.092
So

551
00:28:10.267 --> 00:28:16.752
I think in a global economy where you have
such dynamic growth opportunities and

552
00:28:17.189 --> 00:28:21.658
you pick out those growth, I'm not enticed
by dividend yields.

553
00:28:22.020 --> 00:28:28.920
Just on the bank collapse, in February
2002, Sambo Bank, then South Africa's

554
00:28:28.920 --> 00:28:30.920
seventh largest bank, collapsed.

555
00:28:30.920 --> 00:28:32.440
It all started with an announcement by
ABSA on the

556
00:28:32.963 --> 00:28:37.542
15th of significant losses in its
micro-lending subsidiary Unifor.

557
00:28:37.620 --> 00:28:38.331
Remember that?

558
00:28:38.924 --> 00:28:42.518
And then Sambo had a similar clientele to
Unifor,

559
00:28:42.909 --> 00:28:49.487
and a run on Sambo started and wiped out
20% of Sambo's deposits within five weeks.

560
00:28:49.971 --> 00:28:51.409
It's a building society.

561
00:28:52.429 --> 00:28:59.315
Yeah, you know, and the building
societies, which is their weakness, was

562
00:28:59.315 --> 00:29:01.315
that they lent long and borrowed short.

563
00:29:01.315 --> 00:29:03.315
Yes.

564
00:29:03.315 --> 00:29:06.702
And that was it because by borrowing
short, you know, you always had this pool

565
00:29:06.702 --> 00:29:08.702
and they lent that long.

566
00:29:08.702 --> 00:29:09.233
But when there was a run, that was a
somber, of course.

567
00:29:09.702 --> 00:29:11.092
Yeah.

568
00:29:11.342 --> 00:29:12.874
I was at 702 at the time.

569
00:29:13.014 --> 00:29:14.249
Yeah, I remember distinctly.

570
00:29:14.733 --> 00:29:17.030
Okay, I've got my indices here.

571
00:29:17.233 --> 00:29:20.030
I've got the resources index down nearly a
percent on the close.

572
00:29:20.348 --> 00:29:24.213
Industrials up 0.4%, financials up 1.1%.

573
00:29:24.271 --> 00:29:29.396
The top 40 index, 89,165, which is up a
quarter.

574
00:29:29.576 --> 00:29:35.467
And the all-share itself, not the top 40,
just below 97,000, up a third of a

575
00:29:35.467 --> 00:29:35.746
percent.

576
00:29:35.746 --> 00:29:41.670
We have to talk about Diogo Jota, the
Liverpool footballer, a really, really

577
00:29:41.670 --> 00:29:43.670
good player.

578
00:29:43.670 --> 00:29:48.357
Portugal international, killed in the
early hours of the morning in Spain,

579
00:29:48.357 --> 00:29:50.357
driving his Lamborghini with his brother.

580
00:29:50.357 --> 00:29:52.686
the story is He took over, overtook a car
rather,

581
00:29:53.188 --> 00:29:58.056
and a tyre burst could be possible with
the incredible heat they have in Spain.

582
00:29:58.071 --> 00:29:59.595
It could have been something to do with
that.

583
00:29:59.954 --> 00:30:03.399
But anyway, the car was completely burnt
out.

584
00:30:03.400 --> 00:30:05.102
I don't know if you've seen the pictures.

585
00:30:05.103 --> 00:30:07.282
It must have been full of petrol for this
to happen.

586
00:30:07.657 --> 00:30:09.923
This thing was incinerated.

587
00:30:10.266 --> 00:30:10.966
Horrible.

588
00:30:10.966 --> 00:30:14.766
They must have burnt to death in the car,
both the boys, the brother as well.

589
00:30:15.064 --> 00:30:21.544
But, David, I do think you should sit and
reflect about the sort of money that these

590
00:30:21.544 --> 00:30:23.544
kids are paid when they join a club.

591
00:30:23.544 --> 00:30:25.603
And the first thing they do, because
everyone else does it, is buy a silly

592
00:30:25.603 --> 00:30:27.603
supercar.

593
00:30:27.603 --> 00:30:30.369
And they've been driving for maybe five
years, some of them, maybe less.

594
00:30:30.626 --> 00:30:36.642
And I think the agents in the club should
put something in their contract to say,

595
00:30:36.642 --> 00:30:38.642
tell us if you're going to buy this car.

596
00:30:38.642 --> 00:30:40.642
It's your right.

597
00:30:40.642 --> 00:30:42.642
It's your choice.

598
00:30:42.642 --> 00:30:44.642
It's up to you.

599
00:30:44.642 --> 00:30:46.642
But you are required to go on a series of
interviews.

600
00:30:46.642 --> 00:30:48.642
intensive advanced driving lessons.

601
00:30:48.642 --> 00:30:50.642
Something like that, even a little thing
like that can help.

602
00:30:50.642 --> 00:30:52.200
Same thing happened to Antonio from West
Ham last year.

603
00:30:52.645 --> 00:30:56.965
He wrapped his Ferrari around a tree and
he's lucky to have survived, but it's

604
00:30:56.965 --> 00:30:58.965
ruined his career.

605
00:30:58.965 --> 00:31:00.965
He won't play again for West Ham.

606
00:31:00.965 --> 00:31:03.426
I'm so sad about the, you know, what
happened to him because he was a lovely

607
00:31:03.426 --> 00:31:03.548
chap.

608
00:31:03.911 --> 00:31:05.676
He was liked by everybody.

609
00:31:05.911 --> 00:31:10.692
You know, he never, there was nothing,
even when he was sent off, you always

610
00:31:10.692 --> 00:31:12.692
wondered why.

611
00:31:12.692 --> 00:31:14.692
It was the odd occasion.

612
00:31:14.692 --> 00:31:15.320
which wasn't anyway, but it's very sad.

613
00:31:15.359 --> 00:31:17.380
But you bring up such an important point.

614
00:31:17.603 --> 00:31:22.747
I mean, if you go and see, go to any game,
go to any ground,

615
00:31:22.763 --> 00:31:25.708
and you see the players arriving where
they're not arriving in the coach.

616
00:31:26.771 --> 00:31:33.638
It's just crazy the amount of and it's I
suppose having come from humble

617
00:31:33.638 --> 00:31:35.638
circumstances, many of these players,

618
00:31:35.638 --> 00:31:39.258
it's a way of Just saying that they're
there and that.

619
00:31:39.298 --> 00:31:45.806
But these are incredibly powerful
machines, you know, that should be driven

620
00:31:45.806 --> 00:31:47.806
by people with the right kind of license.

621
00:31:47.806 --> 00:31:49.806
Yes.

622
00:31:49.806 --> 00:31:49.845
You know, I must tell you something.

623
00:31:49.907 --> 00:31:51.892
I had a Mini Cooper S.

624
00:31:52.188 --> 00:31:53.134
Yes, I remember that.

625
00:31:53.149 --> 00:31:57.423
I promise you, when I used to hit that
accelerator button, this thing took off.

626
00:31:57.892 --> 00:31:58.592
Yeah.

627
00:31:58.592 --> 00:31:59.001
And it's scary.

628
00:31:59.251 --> 00:32:00.532
I mean, I'm talking about a Mini.

629
00:32:00.642 --> 00:32:03.345
I'm not talking about any major sports
car.

630
00:32:04.126 --> 00:32:05.751
And you get speed there.

631
00:32:06.873 --> 00:32:07.733
which is frightening.

632
00:32:07.754 --> 00:32:14.182
And if you don't know how to drive,
something should happen like a burst of

633
00:32:14.182 --> 00:32:16.182
fire or who knows,

634
00:32:16.182 --> 00:32:18.182
anything runs across the road.

635
00:32:18.182 --> 00:32:20.182
It's crazy.

636
00:32:20.182 --> 00:32:22.487
I'm just so sad that this happens to
people like that under these

637
00:32:22.487 --> 00:32:24.487
circumstances.

638
00:32:24.487 --> 00:32:26.487
I didn't know the circumstances.

639
00:32:26.487 --> 00:32:29.581
And I know that he'd been killed in a car
crash, but not that it wasn't handled.

640
00:32:29.582 --> 00:32:31.659
Yeah, it was horrible.

641
00:32:32.518 --> 00:32:34.815
If you can come and have a look at the
pictures.

642
00:32:36.068 --> 00:32:39.431
I hope people listen to this and say this
is ridiculous.

643
00:32:43.316 --> 00:32:47.320
If you looked at the parking lots, and
they don't buy one car.

644
00:32:47.702 --> 00:32:49.101
These types go by five, six.

645
00:32:49.320 --> 00:32:50.820
Were they earning how many?

646
00:32:50.882 --> 00:32:53.640
300,000 pounds or 400,000 pounds a week?

647
00:32:55.062 --> 00:32:57.765
This is easy within their purse.

648
00:32:57.952 --> 00:33:01.280
Talking about that, Ronaldo, who's 40
years old and in Saudi Arabia,

649
00:33:01.374 --> 00:33:05.343
he has sold his soul to the Saudi dollar.

650
00:33:05.732 --> 00:33:06.833
at the expense of football.

651
00:33:07.093 --> 00:33:11.320
They get crowds of between 10,000 and
25,000 in Saudi Arabia to watch these

652
00:33:11.320 --> 00:33:11.516
games.

653
00:33:11.659 --> 00:33:17.882
His daily, not weekly or monthly or
yearly, his daily salary, basic salary,

654
00:33:17.905 --> 00:33:21.945
£488,000 a day for the next two years.

655
00:33:22.288 --> 00:33:26.413
He's got an entourage of 16 people that
look after him, two chefs.

656
00:33:26.414 --> 00:33:27.648
I don't know why he needs two chefs.

657
00:33:27.695 --> 00:33:31.757
All he eats is steamed fish and
vegetables, the odd juice here and there.

658
00:33:32.048 --> 00:33:38.957
and some vitamin supplements who needs two
chefs to do that i can do that for him

659
00:33:38.957 --> 00:33:40.957
i'll put my hand up he's got the use

660
00:33:40.957 --> 00:33:43.722
of a private jet for two years and
everything else that is your dick david

661
00:33:44.363 --> 00:33:49.519
yeah i suppose he's a crowd drawer they

662
00:33:49.582 --> 00:33:55.988
only get they only get 25 000 people at a
man and how much are they paying they know

663
00:33:56.816 --> 00:34:03.205
it's silly yeah there's something about me
i Rinaldo is very clean,

664
00:34:03.765 --> 00:34:10.512
as you say, steamed fish, doesn't drink
Coca-Cola or anything like that, pushes

665
00:34:10.512 --> 00:34:12.512
away any water and everything.

666
00:34:12.512 --> 00:34:14.340
Funny enough, Messi is, I find, more of an
ambassador.

667
00:34:14.676 --> 00:34:15.376
Yes.

668
00:34:16.738 --> 00:34:21.121
He's just got that smile, and he's done an
enormous amount for

669
00:34:22.262 --> 00:34:23.808
Miami, for them.

670
00:34:23.887 --> 00:34:27.105
And I think he plays for the enjoyment.

671
00:34:27.293 --> 00:34:27.993
I don't know.

672
00:34:27.993 --> 00:34:28.855
I'm sure he gets paid a lot.

673
00:34:29.384 --> 00:34:31.387
He does, but not as much as Ronaldo.

674
00:34:31.465 --> 00:34:33.868
But, you know, give it away.

675
00:34:35.110 --> 00:34:36.493
What are you doing with it?

676
00:34:36.494 --> 00:34:40.153
Messi was a god with a small B in
Barcelona.

677
00:34:40.192 --> 00:34:42.114
I mean, I went to see him so many times.

678
00:34:42.661 --> 00:34:48.090
When he gets the ball, David, playing for
Barcelona in that giant stadium,

679
00:34:48.700 --> 00:34:50.231
I'm sitting with 80,000 people.

680
00:34:50.559 --> 00:34:51.871
Everyone goes silent.

681
00:34:52.653 --> 00:34:54.590
It's almost like they've got this intake
of breath.

682
00:34:54.684 --> 00:34:56.246
What are you going to do next, Messi?

683
00:34:56.793 --> 00:34:58.575
And it's a remarkable thing.

684
00:34:59.389 --> 00:35:00.089
Boston.

685
00:35:00.089 --> 00:35:00.789
Okay.

686
00:35:01.450 --> 00:35:03.651
Okay, phone him back now because we're
finished.

687
00:35:03.675 --> 00:35:07.394
David Shapiro is from Sasson Securities
and that was the five o'clock shadow.

688
00:35:08.300 --> 00:35:15.237
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

689
00:35:15.237 --> 00:35:17.237
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

690
00:35:17.237 --> 00:35:18.987
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

691
00:35:19.331 --> 00:35:23.972
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

692
00:35:24.441 --> 00:35:31.371
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

693
00:35:31.371 --> 00:35:33.371
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

694
00:35:33.371 --> 00:35:36.856
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

695
00:35:36.856 --> 00:35:36.955
change,

696
00:35:37.137 --> 00:35:39.699
revision and rethinking at any time.

697
00:35:39.996 --> 00:35:42.426
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
