WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And it's a Wednesday, so it's time for
Skalk Lou, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth

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Old Oak in Cape Town.

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It's the 4th of July on Friday, which
means that the US markets are already

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quiet, Skalk,

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which means the European markets are
getting quiet as well.

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And that feeds down to the JSC securities.

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exchange but there's a couple of things to
talk about and i'd like to talk about a

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local stock and we've spoken about it on a
couple of occasions

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it's called sassel tell me more yeah yeah
so i mean okay so

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firstly yeah i told you last week i'm not
gonna repeat myself i i got this one wrong

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oh

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yes you had to you had to justify a stock
that was going to go up or something and

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you You were right for 48 hours.

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I was right for a little bit longer.

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I think it must have been 72 hours.

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Well done.

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But who's counting?

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Well, clearly me.

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I am.

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Yeah.

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So then everything just went south.

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And so, yeah, I think today, big mover,
big mover on the JSC.

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We've seen it actually increase by 7.2%.
Oh, wait a minute.

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I just saw the close.

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We just literally went after the auction,
actually closed the day at 8.

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point four percent in the green very good
above 86 um yeah

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at least 86 31.

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so yeah i would say even a broken clock
was right twice today and this broken

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clock was right today but anyway i think
people

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or the listeners might might have the
question because there was no there was no

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um uh sense announcement

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the oil price is slightly higher but not

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not enough to really have this movement
and i think that the the answer is the

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there was definitely some

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some excitement in the u.s chemicals
industry um yesterday yeah yeah there's a

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company listed on the

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jse jse

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new york stock exchange um i'm going to
try and pronounce this leon leon de barcel

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and that's a that's a it's a it's a it's a
chemical company yes and yesterday

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looked really good, came out with good
results and was up 5.8%.

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And that sort of basically moved up all
these chemical companies.

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And Sasol, we know, is a very, very large
part of Sasol, is chemicals.

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Right about half of the company is
actually, or close to half of the company,

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is actually in the chemical business.

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So this is great, great, great news for
Sasol.

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We know that this is one of the companies
that...

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It's been a darling on the JSE and had a
horrible year or two.

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So, yeah, that's a good one.

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Yeah, it seems to me that it's sort of
jostling.

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I mean, it went just above 100 grand a
share at Sassl and then pulled back

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dramatically after you picked it.

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Now it's above 86 again.

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It seems to me that there must be some
people taking some...

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big chunks.

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Some people have been selling big chunks
on a rally that's come from, gosh, what

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was the low on this thing?

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Was it in the 50s or the 60s, Scott?

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I think it was the 50s, wasn't it?

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It was in the 50s.

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So it nearly doubled in a very short space
of time in 2025.

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And when that happens, some people say,
phew, I've lost money,

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but I've got a little bit of my money
back.

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And so there's big chunks going at these
higher levels.

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But other people accumulating.

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Maybe they've seen it now.

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Maybe they say with the RAND strong, the
RAND's going to weaken.

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Maybe they see with the oil price bubbling
under a little bit and still with tensions

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in the Middle East that

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it could go higher.

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I don't know.

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But it's an interesting one, definitely
one to keep an eye on, and definitely not

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one for the widows and orphans,

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of course.

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Exactly.

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I mean, this is where we want to start it
off.

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This is not one for the widows and
orphans.

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in in my portfolio currently i think it
makes up not even two percent of the

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portfolio so um yeah but i think

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it's really important to note that this is
this is although this is a company that

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has done extremely well two weeks ago in

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that sort of the the eye of the storm when
when when iraq and in iran

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and israel are bombing each other that's
where this company literally went from 80

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80 bucks to 100 bucks in days.

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So yes, that actually...

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prove that that Cecil is quite a good
hedge you know for any geopolitical unrest

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but I mean

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I don't want to buy a company just purely
on on speculating on on war and and then

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we've had the discussion often I mean we
don't

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nobody wants nobody wants this to escalate
any further so so

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I've got Cecil because I do think that,
and I didn't have Cecil in my portfolios

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all the time.

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There was a time where I did feel it was a
little bit overstretched, and we know that

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that was under massive,

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massive pressure.

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And for the oil side, listeners should
know that

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Cecil's break-even price on the oil side
is about $58 per barrel.

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So when the oil price got very, very close
to that, let's call it $58, There was a

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big worry,

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and that's why we've seen this big
retracement.

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But they did mention on the recent
Roadshow, which was about a month, month

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and a half ago,

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they mentioned that they've got a
three-year focus program where they're

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looking at, I think they call it

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Focus 2028 or something like that,

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where they're going to work on bringing
that break-even price down to

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$50 per barrel.

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Add to that, they've actually been quite
cash flow positive lately.

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And also, remember, they had that fine
where they sued the

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Transnet. And eventually, now they're
settled.

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A few weeks ago, there was that
settlement.

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So this definitely helps us with higher
debt levels.

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And always the Lake Charles, the Lake
Charles scenario, especially now with

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this.

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interest in chemicals, because that's a
pure chemical plant,

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if there's going to be interest in US
chemical plants,

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Lake Charles will suddenly have a massive
magnifying glass on it and there will be

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interest for Sassl.

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And that, in a very long-winded way,

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is why I do think this movement that we've
seen today is justified.

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We've seen the recent trend.

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I mean, you like your technical charts.

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I've got a chart where I've looked at
these And you can see it actually formed a

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very,

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very nice support level around about the
60-rand level, and it popped now.

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And if it now breaks this 100-rand level
again, again, I'm no technical analyst,

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but if it breaks this 100-rand level,
firstly, that I think could be a very,

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very interesting one.

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And then secondly, I know some of these
technical analysts,

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they like looking at the 50-day and the
200.

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day moving averages when this 50 day
crosses the the 200 they call it what they

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call it a golden cross there we

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go golden cross and we're getting mighty
close that 50 50 day moving average is

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getting mighty mighty

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close to the to the 200 days so just um
yeah just a short explanation about lake

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charles the u.s chemical industry and

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golden crosses yes thank you very much
yeah i get what you mean though and

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there's there's some daylight

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between like 100 and the old high on SASL,
which was, gosh, again,

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I couldn't remember whether it was the 50s
and the 60s on the low side, double

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digits.

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What about the triple digits?

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Was it 450 or 550 it went to?

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There was the latter, but I mean, that was
quite some time ago.

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But when we look at the, let's call it the
end of 2023,

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which is pretty much a little bit more
than a year and a half ago, the share

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price was trading at...

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at 260, 270 Rand levels.

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To your question there on 5,500, okay,
let's see, 2014.

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Ah, okay.

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2014, the share price was trading at 650
Rand.

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How's them apples?

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How'd you like them apples, eh?

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Funnily enough, that film was on last
night on Dutch TV, Good Will Hunting,

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where that phrase was really made famous.

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I digress, Scott, because I tend to.

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The dollar round is 1763 British pound
against the round 2398.

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And the euro round is 2076 with the euro
dollar 11775.

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I can't believe I'm saying these numbers.

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And that's the euro that's actually about
a quarter of a percent weaker in very

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quiet conditions.

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British pound 13602 against the mighty
greenback gold price

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3342, which is a nice move.

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It's difficult with me and my primitive
steam-driven screens, a scalp, because

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gold being a 24-hour market,

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I don't know when one has closed and when
another has opened.

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But anyway, I've got up nearly 1%, and
that's $29 per ounce.

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The platinum price, is this right?

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Up 5 2 3rds percent?

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Have I got the wrong screen here?

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Is platinum up 5 2 3rds percent?

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5 2 3rds percent at $14.24.

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Is that correct again?

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No, no, you're a little bit light.

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It's a little bit smaller.

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It's currently 14.06.

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Oh, okay.

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And in palladium, 11.50.

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But it did go to that 14.25 level because
my chart is still ticking away here.

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But anyway.

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That's correct.

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Yes, and palladium you've already given
us.

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Let's go to the oil price, which we
mentioned, of course, in conjunction with

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your very neat summary of Sassel.

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Brent crude oil, $67.71 per barrel, which
is up 0.9%.

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And West Texas, $65.95, up three quarters
of a percent.

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Any other big movers there on my screen?

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Steel prices up 2.2%.

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No, nothing to write home about.

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The South African 10-year bond yield.

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is, goodness me, look at this thing go.

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There's no stopping it at 9.83%.

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The US 10-year, not so enthusiastic.

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Going the other way, the yield has risen
by three basis points to just over 4.28%.

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The S&P 500, which was down after the
tariff announcement on Liberation Day,

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the S&P 500 plummeted to something like
4,500, didn't it?

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I haven't got the low.

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And for all the world, we were saying it's
going to 2,500, 3,000, and this is

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horrible.

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There's going to be a US recession, and
the world is going to go into a recession

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as well.

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It's going to be horrible.

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Here we are, the S&P up at a new high as
we speak on the September futures anyway,

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6,260,

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up around about 0.2%.

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What else have we got?

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Bitcoin also doing okay, 108,420,

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which is up 2.3%.

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So some stuff going on, but tomorrow
essentially the markets are closed, Scott,

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because of the long weekend in the United
States.

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And the big beautiful bill might get
passed as soon as July the 4th.

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In fact, probably as soon as tomorrow
night.

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Yeah, it will be the big beautiful,
beautiful bill and the

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Elon deportation bill.

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Oh yeah, he's going back to South Africa
apparently.

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He's got, hey, he's been given more to...

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more, what's the word?

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I've got tariffs in my head now.

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He's been given more subsidies than any
man in history, according to the big

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orange one.

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No, I mean.

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Where does he get that?

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You and I had this conversation last week
about never dull moment.

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I mean, it's basically the 2nd of July.

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I mean, he started off the 21st of
January.

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And it's just no, not one week.

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One week.

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Give me one week where we...

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didn't see Trump just do something crazy.

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No, there isn't a day when he hasn't done
anything crazy.

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And although one can loathe him, like some
people do, every day I wake up and I say,

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oh, it's raining,

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I've got nothing to do, and I've got to go
to this meeting and do this podcast, I

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think.

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But I've still got Donald Trump to look
forward to.

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00:12:47.385 --> 00:12:48.088
It's like that.

239
00:12:49.568 --> 00:12:50.268
Yeah, yeah.

240
00:12:50.508 --> 00:12:52.609
No, I mean, that's just crazy.

241
00:12:52.731 --> 00:12:58.117
When you get somebody that criticizes your
big, beautiful bull, and for good reason.

242
00:12:58.156 --> 00:13:05.125
I mean, I follow Elon, and I mean, I'm not
always the biggest supporter, so to speak.

243
00:13:05.126 --> 00:13:07.922
I mean, he does things awkwardly as well.

244
00:13:08.484 --> 00:13:15.453
But I mean, if you look at what he says
about the bull, about the debt levels

245
00:13:15.453 --> 00:13:17.453
already, the deficits,

246
00:13:17.453 --> 00:13:17.875
I mean, he makes a few good points.

247
00:13:19.480 --> 00:13:26.125
but man oh man and then trump turns around
and say well well that's it i'll just

248
00:13:26.125 --> 00:13:28.125
deport you

249
00:13:28.125 --> 00:13:33.816
yes and he's also going to arrest he's
also going to read there's a

250
00:13:33.816 --> 00:13:35.816
democratically elected mayor of new york
who happens to be a

251
00:13:35.816 --> 00:13:39.558
socialist and he happens to be 32 or 33
years old and he's got some pretty pretty

252
00:13:39.652 --> 00:13:46.465
far left views trump says uh we can't have
a communist as mayor of new york i'm going

253
00:13:46.465 --> 00:13:48.465
to arrest him i don't know what on

254
00:13:48.465 --> 00:13:51.143
what charge But you'll find something.

255
00:13:51.144 --> 00:13:51.844
He's fabulous.

256
00:13:51.844 --> 00:13:52.304
You'll find something.

257
00:13:52.545 --> 00:13:54.764
But that will be next week's craziness.

258
00:13:56.529 --> 00:13:57.412
Today is nearly done.

259
00:13:57.413 --> 00:14:01.912
And as you mentioned, you know, Saturday
is the 4th of July, Independence Day.

260
00:14:01.990 --> 00:14:06.271
So, yeah, I think we'll wind this down
now.

261
00:14:06.381 --> 00:14:07.334
Well, not Saturday.

262
00:14:07.335 --> 00:14:08.115
I mean, Friday.

263
00:14:08.116 --> 00:14:08.816
Friday, yeah.

264
00:14:09.225 --> 00:14:09.925
Okay.

265
00:14:09.925 --> 00:14:12.521
I've still got Cecil's pre-auction
closing.

266
00:14:12.787 --> 00:14:19.180
But anyway, Cecil, the big mover today, up
over 8%. 8% Okumba-Ironore up nearly 7%,

267
00:14:19.282 --> 00:14:22.966
Glencore up over 5%, Anglo-American PLC up
nearly 5%,

268
00:14:23.704 --> 00:14:27.333
and Motus chipping in with a 4.2 gain.

269
00:14:27.387 --> 00:14:28.614
On the downside, Bytes.

270
00:14:28.747 --> 00:14:29.770
Now, is this a story?

271
00:14:30.411 --> 00:14:31.111
Yeah, yeah.

272
00:14:31.111 --> 00:14:35.114
I just want to add to the gainers, because
one that clearly didn't reach your screen,

273
00:14:35.301 --> 00:14:39.614
which is on the maybe smaller side, is Sun
International.

274
00:14:39.723 --> 00:14:45.661
That was up today 7.9%, which will be one
of the largest gainers today.

275
00:14:46.643 --> 00:14:50.705
And the reason was that deal.

276
00:14:52.103 --> 00:14:56.947
They actually had a bid to buy, what is
that, Empress Palace?

277
00:14:57.142 --> 00:14:59.424
Man, I'm hitting a blank now.

278
00:14:59.947 --> 00:15:02.783
That company that owns Empress Palace.

279
00:15:03.002 --> 00:15:05.533
But anyhow, it'll get to me now.

280
00:15:06.142 --> 00:15:12.361
But they actually made the, Piedmont,
there we go.

281
00:15:12.424 --> 00:15:13.533
I would always be something.

282
00:15:13.986 --> 00:15:16.095
Piedmont, that's better.

283
00:15:16.131 --> 00:15:18.534
Piermont in March 2024.

284
00:15:18.535 --> 00:15:21.302
And it wasn't the first time that they
made a bid to buy them.

285
00:15:22.083 --> 00:15:25.169
And the offer on the table this time
around was 7.3 billion.

286
00:15:26.325 --> 00:15:31.216
They tried to take over Piermont in 2015,
where they offered 4 billion rand.

287
00:15:31.700 --> 00:15:37.608
Now, why this is important, when they made
this offer March last year, We saw

288
00:15:37.608 --> 00:15:39.608
massive,

289
00:15:39.608 --> 00:15:39.971
massive retracement in the share price,
and for good reason.

290
00:15:40.030 --> 00:15:40.730
Because,

291
00:15:43.795 --> 00:15:49.842
I mean, 2020, this company was mighty,
mighty, mighty close to going bankrupt,

292
00:15:50.178 --> 00:15:51.944
naturally because of COVID and those kind
of things.

293
00:15:52.178 --> 00:15:53.569
And they had to do a rights issue.

294
00:15:54.366 --> 00:15:55.491
And, Lindsay, this is a good one.

295
00:15:55.678 --> 00:15:56.378
This is a good one.

296
00:15:56.694 --> 00:16:03.647
If you took up your rights, now the rights
issue was done in 2020.

297
00:16:03.648 --> 00:16:06.178
I think it was September, October-ish.

298
00:16:06.339 --> 00:16:07.881
2020.

299
00:16:07.882 --> 00:16:10.783
It was done at 9,45.

300
00:16:11.205 --> 00:16:11.905
Okay.

301
00:16:11.905 --> 00:16:14.486
Share price today, sorry, 9,44.

302
00:16:15.010 --> 00:16:18.330
Share price today closed at 47,60.

303
00:16:18.354 --> 00:16:19.932
That's a full bag of more than that.

304
00:16:19.971 --> 00:16:24.533
That's more.

305
00:16:24.971 --> 00:16:26.065
Four and a half.

306
00:16:26.066 --> 00:16:26.799
I think Mr.

307
00:16:26.815 --> 00:16:28.580
Marker just said they're very, very good.

308
00:16:28.596 --> 00:16:35.454
They retraced that offer and said they're
not not going to take over Piedmont

309
00:16:35.454 --> 00:16:37.454
anymore in the market.

310
00:16:37.454 --> 00:16:39.454
Natchi loved it.

311
00:16:39.454 --> 00:16:41.454
Back to your bytes.

312
00:16:41.454 --> 00:16:43.454
Yeah, bytes down 30% on my screen.

313
00:16:43.454 --> 00:16:45.454
What happened?

314
00:16:45.454 --> 00:16:47.706
Not an ex-dev story, literally just a
statement, let's call it a market update,

315
00:16:48.104 --> 00:16:52.292
where they mentioned that things are not
going as well as they should.

316
00:16:52.354 --> 00:16:59.073
They actually mentioned it's been a
challenging year and they basically told

317
00:16:59.073 --> 00:16:59.196
us that

318
00:16:59.196 --> 00:17:01.698
but profits are going to be flat.

319
00:17:02.071 --> 00:17:08.796
flag for this year and coming off massive
massive uh profits so going from uh let's

320
00:17:08.796 --> 00:17:10.796
go close to 30

321
00:17:10.796 --> 00:17:16.007
30 odd million or billion uh profit to
being being flat this is

322
00:17:16.022 --> 00:17:23.007
a this is naturally another case of death
so share price down 29 29 and a quarter

323
00:17:23.007 --> 00:17:25.007
percent okay and the other ones

324
00:17:25.007 --> 00:17:28.835
i've got tiger browns down six and
two-thirds percent the reason i don't say

325
00:17:28.835 --> 00:17:30.835
the second one supr because i I don't know
what it is.

326
00:17:33.262 --> 00:17:33.962
down 10%.

327
00:17:33.962 --> 00:17:34.823
What's SUPR?

328
00:17:34.824 --> 00:17:36.147
I've got no idea.

329
00:17:36.148 --> 00:17:37.167
I don't feel so bad then.

330
00:17:37.168 --> 00:17:39.569
But anyway, SUPR is down 10%.

331
00:17:39.866 --> 00:17:41.647
A tug around six and two thirds, as I
said.

332
00:17:41.991 --> 00:17:44.194
Vukile down four and two thirds.

333
00:17:44.577 --> 00:17:47.553
And I think this one is Shakespeare
Capital.

334
00:17:48.241 --> 00:17:49.913
And that's down nearly 4%.

335
00:17:50.163 --> 00:17:51.866
Any others on the downside quickly, Scott?

336
00:17:52.178 --> 00:17:52.878
No, no, no.

337
00:17:52.897 --> 00:17:58.131
Just I think for anybody going to get a
heart attack, Tiger Brands is a special

338
00:17:58.131 --> 00:18:00.131
dividend and an interim dividend.

339
00:18:00.131 --> 00:18:00.801
so yeah Quite a large dividend there in
Vukilia as well.

340
00:18:00.821 --> 00:18:02.503
Vukilia is also an ex-Dev story.

341
00:18:02.782 --> 00:18:03.884
Thank you very much indeed.

342
00:18:03.923 --> 00:18:06.606
Give us the closing JSE prices, indices,
please.

343
00:18:07.544 --> 00:18:12.372
So the JSE closed today at 96,609 points.

344
00:18:12.373 --> 00:18:14.216
That's down 31 basis points.

345
00:18:14.911 --> 00:18:17.778
Resources were up 1.8%.

346
00:18:18.419 --> 00:18:20.856
Industrials down 94 basis points.

347
00:18:21.044 --> 00:18:23.403
And the financials were down 88 basis
points.

348
00:18:23.497 --> 00:18:27.200
Even the SA property stocks had a bit of a
hiding today.

349
00:18:27.700 --> 00:18:28.403
They were done.

350
00:18:28.835 --> 00:18:30.375
1.55%.

351
00:18:30.676 --> 00:18:37.399
And when we look at the turnover today,
not a bad day for, let's call it, going

352
00:18:37.399 --> 00:18:39.399
into a US summer break.

353
00:18:39.399 --> 00:18:41.157
Just over $27 billion went through the JSC
today.

354
00:18:41.180 --> 00:18:42.219
So quite a sum of that.

355
00:18:42.375 --> 00:18:47.180
And next week, of course, you'll tell me
about the JSC Limited and what it's been

356
00:18:47.180 --> 00:18:49.180
doing recently,

357
00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:50.539
because we did have this conversation and
you did promise, but I didn't remind you.

358
00:18:50.821 --> 00:18:51.555
And I should have done.

359
00:18:52.039 --> 00:18:53.086
But next week, we'll do that.

360
00:18:53.461 --> 00:18:54.539
JSC Limited.

361
00:18:54.555 --> 00:18:55.446
I'm writing it down.

362
00:18:55.477 --> 00:18:56.758
And of course, I'll throw it away.

363
00:18:57.508 --> 00:18:58.227
But nonetheless, list.

364
00:18:59.172 --> 00:19:00.674
I'm satisfied that I'm doing it.

365
00:19:01.155 --> 00:19:03.776
Skulk, thank you so much for your time
this evening.

366
00:19:03.815 --> 00:19:08.760
Skulk Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

367
00:19:08.784 --> 00:19:10.159
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

368
00:19:11.002 --> 00:19:17.971
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

369
00:19:17.971 --> 00:19:19.971
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

370
00:19:19.971 --> 00:19:21.721
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

371
00:19:22.034 --> 00:19:26.674
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

372
00:19:27.115 --> 00:19:34.082
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

373
00:19:34.082 --> 00:19:36.082
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

374
00:19:36.082 --> 00:19:39.566
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

375
00:19:39.566 --> 00:19:39.688
change,

376
00:19:39.847 --> 00:19:42.410
revision and rethinking at any time.

377
00:19:42.707 --> 00:19:45.129
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.