WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as always on a Thursday, I speak to
Viv Govender from RAND Swiss.

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David Shapiro may join us later.

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But for now, Viv, you must be smiling.

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I can sense you're smiling because NVIDIA,
I think you hold it, and I don't think

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you're scared to tell us.

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And it is now the world's largest company
again, and its market capitalization is a

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staggering three and three quarter.

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trillion dollars can you believe it yeah
look i mean people often like you know

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steve jobs they use the

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names of like andre ford and that kind of
you know thing jensen wong is is

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definitely in that league you know to

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found the the world's you know to a
company and to basically have it be the

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world's most valuable company even steve
jobs wasn't able to get it all the way to

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like the

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three trillion dollar mark of the
improvement in you know until this apple

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happened after he passed the way under Tim
Cook, even

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Bill Gates, you know.

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It took quite such an agenda to get it
over the trillion-dollar mark.

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Jensen Wong has got it there himself.

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And this is, I think, a very impressive
move.

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Another company I also hold is Micron,
which also had results come out yesterday.

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The market didn't react quite as
positively to that.

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But still, it's up from where it was in
ideas before.

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Why is it going up?

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Is it just speculation?

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Is it just the momentum?

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Is it the fact that the rest of the market
is going up?

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There's no specific reason that NVIDIA
suddenly...

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gone to record highs is there well you
know look i mean within video we are

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seeing demand for uh you know these uh

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what's called uh demand for you know the
chips the hardware and the which was

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machinery yeah so

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micron is a company that basically does
actually also make uh to this uh they

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make a high bandwidth memory and so their
results the demand that's showing there i

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think also feeds into this whole idea that
we are seeing

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It could demand for the chips especially
being quite strong.

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Okay, so just demand for chips.

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And from what I gather, as a complete
novice, this is going to continue.

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But anyway, the rest of the market also
going up because of geopolitical events

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not quite

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panning out for the bears in the last
week.

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What have you made of Iran, Israel,
ceasefires, bunker bombs, that sort of

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thing?

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What have you made of it?

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Honestly, this is, you've got to give
credit where credit is due.

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I don't know whether it's luck or it's
skill or whatever, but this is, if you had

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to look at what the situation was sitting
a couple of weeks ago,

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the best of all possible outcomes.

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You know, we have basically a ceasefire,
which may or may not hold.

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We have Iran basically, you know, losing
some facilities.

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You know, they've lost scientists, they've
lost, you know, officials as well.

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But they've definitely also lost, you
know, some capacity.

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We don't think that the, you know, the...

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The uranium itself was hit because there's
no radiation signature around it.

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But they did not respond with anything
like, you know, clears in the Straits of

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Hormuz or, you know, a significant attack
against the U.S.

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I mean, they attacked an airfield or an
airbase, which is mostly, you know, an

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airfield is mostly tarmac.

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And, you know, enough warning that no
person was injured.

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This was as well as it could have turned
out.

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Whether, like I said, it's skill or it's
luck, who knows, but it's definitely a...

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a very positive outcome for the world.

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I mean, that's why we're seeing oil prices
come down again.

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That's why we're seeing a bit of a boost
up in the stock market.

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Yeah, yeah, you're quite right, actually.

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I mean, I don't want to give any credit to
Trump because it's not in my nature to do

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so.

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And something might go wrong.

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And it might not be as much damage as the
White House is saying.

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But yeah, well done.

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And for now, anyway, the threat from Iran
has been, their sting has been drawn,

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let's put it that way.

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Let's have a look at the markets now, Viv,
because there's nothing on the stock

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exchange news.

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There's no company news there.

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There is some company news when it comes
to movements on the JSC, but we'll come to

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that in a moment.

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The dollar round is 1777.

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The British pound against the round is
2440.

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Euro round, what is that, 2080 now.

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And that is a euro that's half a percent
higher, a dollar that's a third of a

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percent higher against the round.

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And the British pound is two thirds of a
percent higher against the local currency.

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On to commodities now.

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The gold price is down slightly.

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It's down $12 an ounce to $33.22.

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The big one is platinum, which is $13.81,
up $53.50 an ounce,

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and that's just over 4%, and also just
over 4% higher.

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Palladium, 4.1%, so good for South Africa
with the white metals going up, the PGMs.

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What else have we got here?

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Well, we're looking at commodities.

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You mentioned the oil price.

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It's had a range from early May to a week
ago, $60 to $80.

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Back now, below $70.

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What's the exact price?

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$68.80, and that is up 1.2% today.

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That's Brent crude oil.

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West Texas crude, $66.17, which is up
1.9%.

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Natural gas prices have fallen 3.75%, and
not much else going on there.

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S&P 500.

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That has gone.

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It's getting close to all-time record
highs.

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It's up half a percent today.

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These are the futures, the September
futures, 61, 81.

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And with the markets going up, the stock
markets going up, the bond markets are

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going up as well,

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because the yield has fallen by three
points on the US 10-year.

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It's a four point, to be precise, 4.287%.

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The South African 10-year, still below
10%, 9.95.

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That's after the South African Reserve
Bank quarterly update came out.

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this morning got bitcoin 107 400 which is
up about a third of a percent yeah the

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market as

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viv said he said is the best possible
outcome it's great for the world it's

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great for the markets it's great for the
bond markets what could

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be better what could possibly go wrong the
rand has had a little bit of a wobble

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because

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of the strength of other currencies viv
but also the government of national unity

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also suffered a small setback this morning
what

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happened Look, I think this is a case
where Souram Posa fires a deputy minister.

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It appears to be without any kind of
consultation with the DA.

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And I do think that this is a very
provocative act.

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I mean, think about it.

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What would make you fire somebody like
this without giving any kind of approval

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with your partner?

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Because, I mean, one of the reasons that
this person is in the position he is in is

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because, you know,

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you made a deal with the DA to be part of
the GNU.

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and to remove them without that, you know,

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some kind of information makes you believe
that he's technically trying to sabotage

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the GNU or he's thinking to

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basically, you know, take things up a bit.

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And that I think is quite negative for
South Africa, especially considering the

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fact that, you know, just how positively
the market reacted,

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the round reacted after GNU was announced.

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Yeah, GNU started off with great hopes,
had a wobble, stabilized again,

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but now let's see if this actually
destabilizes it.

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Again, anyway, the bond market seems to
ignore it.

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The RAND, not so, but that could be
external factors, as I say, the strength

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of the other currencies.

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Looking at the JSC, movers on the upside
and the downside.

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Big, big move from Valterra, which is the
old Anglo-American platinum.

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The CEO was speaking to Mining Max a few
days ago,

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and he said he thought the platinum price
would still continue to be strong and keep

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on going.

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He would say that, of course, as a person
that digs in out the ground.

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But he's been right today with a 4% move,
as I said earlier.

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And Valterra's share price on the JSE up
nearly

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11%. That's just after the auction and it
may be adjusted.

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But anyway, over 10% today, a stunning
move.

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And after years and years of
disappointment,

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PGM fans are suddenly getting their day in
the sun.

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African Rainbow Minerals up 8.75%.

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Northern Platinum up 7.7%.

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So when you're still watered, 7.3% higher.

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And Anglo-American PLC up 7% as well.

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A stunning move for the diggers on the
JSC.

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On the downside, Tungela Limited down
nearly 4%.

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Pick and Pay down 2.5%.

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Outsurance down 2.2%.

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Karoo down 2.1%.

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And Boxer down 1.8%.

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Any changes in your portfolio, Viv?

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Anything that's caught your eye, either
negatively or positively?

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I think the platinum thing is interesting.

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I think what's happening with platinum is
that it's fallen so low that effectively

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people are now valuing it relative to
gold.

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And the fact of the matter is that
platinum at a third the price of gold,

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which was a little while ago,

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was just a bit too low relative to gold.

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I mean, there is substitution effects that
you could do with platinum versus gold,

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jewelry-wise, et cetera.

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And I think the market's kind of realizing
there should be a bit of a rebalance

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happening there, which could be quite
positive for the sector.

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Like I said, I don't think even right now
the current ratio is what's the long-term

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ratio.

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is likely to be.

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With regards to the fall of the day, I
noticed that a lot of them seem to be

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essaying stocks.

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And after that report, that aftermarket
report from Nedbank a couple of days ago,

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which basically downgraded growth of the
country for this year from 1.4% to 1%, I

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think we are seeing, especially the GNU,

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the GNU has not resulted in any positive
economic activity in South Africa,

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unfortunately.

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And the fact of the matter is that
markets, which rallied after the G&U was

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announced.

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Maybe to a certain extent, starting to see
that we need to, you know,

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revalue or re-estimate what the current
growth is going to be like.

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Yeah.

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And just going back to platinum, which is
the story of the day on the JSC.

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Do you think there's fundamentals that are
going to boost platinum?

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Do you think the EV story is one that
should be taken seriously?

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In other words, the EV may have plateaued
and people are going, not going back to.

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normal cars, what we would see as normal
petrol cars and diesel cars.

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Do you think that's the case or whether
hybrids are going to be more popular than

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EVs?

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Is it an EV story?

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I think it is an EV story.

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And I think EVs, not just because of the
regulation and the environmental stuff, I

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think EVs because, I mean, I think the
last week or so,

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we saw Tesla basically debut the robot
taxi.

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We've already seen Waymo do more than 10
million rides so far without any

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fatalities or significant accidents.

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It seems...

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Be clear to me, you know, that we are in
the age of driverless cars.

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It may take a decade or two for it to
fully go out there, but it's coming.

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The cost is going to be in favor of
driverless cars.

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The safety is definitely in favor of
driverless cars.

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To get an idea what 10 million rides
means, it means you take 100 rides every

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day and you live to 100 years old.

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You'll have 10 million rides.

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And that's the kind of stuff that these
basically companies are able to do without

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any major accidents.

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No human being can do that.

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And the thing with EVs is that you do.

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or self-driving requires EVs.

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You don't do it to petrol cars.

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It's just not suitable.

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So the fact of the matter is that if
driverless cars are here, petrol cars are

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the way out.

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Okay, so the rally is not fundamentally
based, in other words, is what you're

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saying.

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Okay.

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Or maybe it's on jewellery.

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I think on jewellery would be coming
through soon.

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But regards to like, you know...

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I think the catalytic converter stuff is a
dead, dying industry.

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But, I mean, people like platinum
jewellery.

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And if gold is sitting at $3,500 an ounce
and platinum is at $1,300, I mean, you

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might want to have that platinum necklace
instead of the gold necklace.

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Yeah, that's very true.

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Yeah, platinum, yeah, jewellery demand has
gone up in the last figures and might

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continue to do so, as you quite rightly
say,

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with gold at such an elevated level.

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JSC today, the all-share was up 0.6% to
95,900 almost.

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the top 40 88,315.

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Viv, thank you very much for your time.

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David sent a message while we were
speaking saying he's in a meeting, but

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he'll be back next week with Viv.

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And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

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The views and opinions expressed in these
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