You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.
And as always on a Thursday, I speak to Viv Govender from RAND Swiss.
David Shapiro may join us later.
But for now, Viv, you must be smiling.
I can sense you're smiling because NVIDIA, I think you hold it, and I don't think
you're scared to tell us.
And it is now the world's largest company again, and its market capitalization is a
staggering three and three quarter.
trillion dollars can you believe it yeah look i mean people often like you know
steve jobs they use the
names of like andre ford and that kind of you know thing jensen wong is is
definitely in that league you know to
found the the world's you know to a company and to basically have it be the
world's most valuable company even steve jobs wasn't able to get it all the way to
like the
three trillion dollar mark of the improvement in you know until this apple
happened after he passed the way under Tim Cook, even
Bill Gates, you know.
It took quite such an agenda to get it over the trillion-dollar mark.
Jensen Wong has got it there himself.
And this is, I think, a very impressive move.
Another company I also hold is Micron, which also had results come out yesterday.
The market didn't react quite as positively to that.
But still, it's up from where it was in ideas before.
Why is it going up?
Is it just speculation?
Is it just the momentum?
Is it the fact that the rest of the market is going up?
There's no specific reason that NVIDIA suddenly...
gone to record highs is there well you know look i mean within video we are
seeing demand for uh you know these uh
what's called uh demand for you know the chips the hardware and the which was
machinery yeah so
micron is a company that basically does actually also make uh to this uh they
make a high bandwidth memory and so their results the demand that's showing there i
think also feeds into this whole idea that we are seeing
It could demand for the chips especially being quite strong.
Okay, so just demand for chips.
And from what I gather, as a complete novice, this is going to continue.
But anyway, the rest of the market also going up because of geopolitical events
not quite
panning out for the bears in the last week.
What have you made of Iran, Israel, ceasefires, bunker bombs, that sort of
thing?
What have you made of it?
Honestly, this is, you've got to give credit where credit is due.
I don't know whether it's luck or it's skill or whatever, but this is, if you had
to look at what the situation was sitting a couple of weeks ago,
the best of all possible outcomes.
You know, we have basically a ceasefire, which may or may not hold.
We have Iran basically, you know, losing some facilities.
You know, they've lost scientists, they've lost, you know, officials as well.
But they've definitely also lost, you know, some capacity.
We don't think that the, you know, the...
The uranium itself was hit because there's no radiation signature around it.
But they did not respond with anything like, you know, clears in the Straits of
Hormuz or, you know, a significant attack against the U.S.
I mean, they attacked an airfield or an airbase, which is mostly, you know, an
airfield is mostly tarmac.
And, you know, enough warning that no person was injured.
This was as well as it could have turned out.
Whether, like I said, it's skill or it's luck, who knows, but it's definitely a...
a very positive outcome for the world.
I mean, that's why we're seeing oil prices come down again.
That's why we're seeing a bit of a boost up in the stock market.
Yeah, yeah, you're quite right, actually.
I mean, I don't want to give any credit to Trump because it's not in my nature to do
so.
And something might go wrong.
And it might not be as much damage as the White House is saying.
But yeah, well done.
And for now, anyway, the threat from Iran has been, their sting has been drawn,
let's put it that way.
Let's have a look at the markets now, Viv, because there's nothing on the stock
exchange news.
There's no company news there.
There is some company news when it comes to movements on the JSC, but we'll come to
that in a moment.
The dollar round is 1777.
The British pound against the round is 2440.
Euro round, what is that, 2080 now.
And that is a euro that's half a percent higher, a dollar that's a third of a
percent higher against the round.
And the British pound is two thirds of a percent higher against the local currency.
On to commodities now.
The gold price is down slightly.
It's down $12 an ounce to $33.22.
The big one is platinum, which is $13.81, up $53.50 an ounce,
and that's just over 4%, and also just over 4% higher.
Palladium, 4.1%, so good for South Africa with the white metals going up, the PGMs.
What else have we got here?
Well, we're looking at commodities.
You mentioned the oil price.
It's had a range from early May to a week ago, $60 to $80.
Back now, below $70.
What's the exact price?
$68.80, and that is up 1.2% today.
That's Brent crude oil.
West Texas crude, $66.17, which is up 1.9%.
Natural gas prices have fallen 3.75%, and not much else going on there.
S&P 500.
That has gone.
It's getting close to all-time record highs.
It's up half a percent today.
These are the futures, the September futures, 61, 81.
And with the markets going up, the stock markets going up, the bond markets are
going up as well,
because the yield has fallen by three points on the US 10-year.
It's a four point, to be precise, 4.287%.
The South African 10-year, still below 10%, 9.95.
That's after the South African Reserve Bank quarterly update came out.
this morning got bitcoin 107 400 which is up about a third of a percent yeah the
market as
viv said he said is the best possible outcome it's great for the world it's
great for the markets it's great for the bond markets what could
be better what could possibly go wrong the rand has had a little bit of a wobble
because
of the strength of other currencies viv but also the government of national unity
also suffered a small setback this morning what
happened Look, I think this is a case where Souram Posa fires a deputy minister.
It appears to be without any kind of consultation with the DA.
And I do think that this is a very provocative act.
I mean, think about it.
What would make you fire somebody like this without giving any kind of approval
with your partner?
Because, I mean, one of the reasons that this person is in the position he is in is
because, you know,
you made a deal with the DA to be part of the GNU.
and to remove them without that, you know,
some kind of information makes you believe that he's technically trying to sabotage
the GNU or he's thinking to
basically, you know, take things up a bit.
And that I think is quite negative for South Africa, especially considering the
fact that, you know, just how positively the market reacted,
the round reacted after GNU was announced.
Yeah, GNU started off with great hopes, had a wobble, stabilized again,
but now let's see if this actually destabilizes it.
Again, anyway, the bond market seems to ignore it.
The RAND, not so, but that could be external factors, as I say, the strength
of the other currencies.
Looking at the JSC, movers on the upside and the downside.
Big, big move from Valterra, which is the old Anglo-American platinum.
The CEO was speaking to Mining Max a few days ago,
and he said he thought the platinum price would still continue to be strong and keep
on going.
He would say that, of course, as a person that digs in out the ground.
But he's been right today with a 4% move, as I said earlier.
And Valterra's share price on the JSE up nearly
11%. That's just after the auction and it may be adjusted.
But anyway, over 10% today, a stunning move.
And after years and years of disappointment,
PGM fans are suddenly getting their day in the sun.
African Rainbow Minerals up 8.75%.
Northern Platinum up 7.7%.
So when you're still watered, 7.3% higher.
And Anglo-American PLC up 7% as well.
A stunning move for the diggers on the JSC.
On the downside, Tungela Limited down nearly 4%.
Pick and Pay down 2.5%.
Outsurance down 2.2%.
Karoo down 2.1%.
And Boxer down 1.8%.
Any changes in your portfolio, Viv?
Anything that's caught your eye, either negatively or positively?
I think the platinum thing is interesting.
I think what's happening with platinum is that it's fallen so low that effectively
people are now valuing it relative to gold.
And the fact of the matter is that platinum at a third the price of gold,
which was a little while ago,
was just a bit too low relative to gold.
I mean, there is substitution effects that you could do with platinum versus gold,
jewelry-wise, et cetera.
And I think the market's kind of realizing there should be a bit of a rebalance
happening there, which could be quite positive for the sector.
Like I said, I don't think even right now the current ratio is what's the long-term
ratio.
is likely to be.
With regards to the fall of the day, I noticed that a lot of them seem to be
essaying stocks.
And after that report, that aftermarket report from Nedbank a couple of days ago,
which basically downgraded growth of the country for this year from 1.4% to 1%, I
think we are seeing, especially the GNU,
the GNU has not resulted in any positive economic activity in South Africa,
unfortunately.
And the fact of the matter is that markets, which rallied after the G&U was
announced.
Maybe to a certain extent, starting to see that we need to, you know,
revalue or re-estimate what the current growth is going to be like.
Yeah.
And just going back to platinum, which is the story of the day on the JSC.
Do you think there's fundamentals that are going to boost platinum?
Do you think the EV story is one that should be taken seriously?
In other words, the EV may have plateaued and people are going, not going back to.
normal cars, what we would see as normal petrol cars and diesel cars.
Do you think that's the case or whether hybrids are going to be more popular than
EVs?
Is it an EV story?
I think it is an EV story.
And I think EVs, not just because of the regulation and the environmental stuff, I
think EVs because, I mean, I think the last week or so,
we saw Tesla basically debut the robot taxi.
We've already seen Waymo do more than 10 million rides so far without any
fatalities or significant accidents.
It seems...
Be clear to me, you know, that we are in the age of driverless cars.
It may take a decade or two for it to fully go out there, but it's coming.
The cost is going to be in favor of driverless cars.
The safety is definitely in favor of driverless cars.
To get an idea what 10 million rides means, it means you take 100 rides every
day and you live to 100 years old.
You'll have 10 million rides.
And that's the kind of stuff that these basically companies are able to do without
any major accidents.
No human being can do that.
And the thing with EVs is that you do.
or self-driving requires EVs.
You don't do it to petrol cars.
It's just not suitable.
So the fact of the matter is that if driverless cars are here, petrol cars are
the way out.
Okay, so the rally is not fundamentally based, in other words, is what you're
saying.
Okay.
Or maybe it's on jewellery.
I think on jewellery would be coming through soon.
But regards to like, you know...
I think the catalytic converter stuff is a dead, dying industry.
But, I mean, people like platinum jewellery.
And if gold is sitting at $3,500 an ounce and platinum is at $1,300, I mean, you
might want to have that platinum necklace instead of the gold necklace.
Yeah, that's very true.
Yeah, platinum, yeah, jewellery demand has gone up in the last figures and might
continue to do so, as you quite rightly say,
with gold at such an elevated level.
JSC today, the all-share was up 0.6% to 95,900 almost.
the top 40 88,315.
Viv, thank you very much for your time.
David sent a message while we were speaking saying he's in a meeting, but
he'll be back next week with Viv.
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.
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