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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSU has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak.

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Skulk, I sent you a message the other day,
just out of the blue, because I was just

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feeling like annoying you.

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And I said, I've got a bad feeling.

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You said, I second that thought.

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Tell me why you second my thought, and
I'll tell you what my thought was.

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Well, it's progressing.

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I mean, it's something you and I discussed
many, many, many times on this show.

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But it's as if things are just, I don't
want to say spiraling out of control,

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because most probably not at that point
yet.

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But I mean, I watched some of these scenes
in Tel Aviv last night.

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Yes.

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And, and, And it looks like it's AI
generated.

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It looks like it's some blockbuster movie
that I'm watching.

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And it's playing out on my live screen.

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It is crazy.

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So what we have, we know that Russia and

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Ukraine, they're still very much at it.

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We know that we had sort of troubling
Middle East with the whole…

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Israel and Gaza and Palestine and now Iran
is very much involved and

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US are literally moving all or not all you
know very very strong military presence

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you know

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towards

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Iran and and it's to a lot of commentators
it's not when it's if it's just when

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they're gonna

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to get involved now.

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And then you've got Modi or you have India
stating this morning, well,

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they're not too happy with their
neighbours either, Pakistan.

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Oh, is that staring up again?

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Yeah, so it's just, as we sit here,

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things are sort of just progressing
towards something which very much sounds

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like a third world

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war.

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I don't want to call it, I want to say
that they can still evade this,

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but it seems like We just...

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It's spiraling into a full-blown massive,
massive war.

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And you don't have two particularly stable
characters with the latest and most

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sinister of the conflicts or potential
conflicts.

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That's Donald Trump and Ayatollah
Khamenei,

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who desperately wants to keep control of
his country.

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And I think that if he stepped down, there
would be a mass fallout.

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I think the majority of the population
would rejoice in the streets.

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There would be pockets of resistance,
obviously.

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So there's a lot at stake here.

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And when Mr.

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Trump changes his mind all the time, he
goes to the G7 meeting and says,

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I think Russia should be in the G7 or
should never have been thrown out.

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And then he goes back after a day.

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He famously doesn't like going to these
meetings.

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And I think he doesn't like it because he
is not liked by the people at the G7

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table.

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And also, they're cleverer than him.

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And I don't think he really understands
what's going on there.

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So he says, I've got this big thing to get
back to.

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And that big thing being Israel and Iran.
And I don't know,

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he's unstable.

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And Khamenei, as I said, is fighting for
his life.

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And you put the two together.

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Not good, Skel.

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Not good at all.

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No, I mean, to top it all up, I mean,
you...

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got the president of the let's call it the
most influential uh country aka

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the usa i mean you've got the president of
the country tweeting i mean

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he's tweeting that they

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know exactly uh where where where he is i
mean yeah yeah

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exactly and they can take him out any
second um but they won't do it now

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You know, they want to, you know, it's
what they call unconditional, what do they

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call it,

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withdrawal.

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But, I mean,

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bottom line is he's tweeting about
assassinating the leader of a

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country on social media.

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It's extraordinary, actually.

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It's quite right what you say.

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He sits there tweeting the most.

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astonishing things that would come out
it's like it's it's it's it's like a

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mental a person in a

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mental asylum who's been given a phone and
he comes out with all these things because

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his mind is racing and whatever

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pops in pops out again I'm going to read
this.

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Go on.

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I'm going to read this because this is the
tweet that he tweeted yesterday.

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We know exactly where the so-called
supreme leader is hiding in inverted

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commas.

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He is an easy target, but he's safe there.

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We're not going to take him out, in
brackets, kill.

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At least not for now.

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But we don't want missiles shot at
civilians or American soldiers.

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Our patience is wearing thin.

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Thank you for your attention in this
matter, exclamation mark.

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And then in the next tweet, just literally
after that, he says, unconditional

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surrender.

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I mean, how the hell?

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What era are we living in where the most
influential person on

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the foot of earth is actually sitting in a
position where he can actually tweet

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without assassinating

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a menace?

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That tells us we are in an extremely
dangerous.

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environment where you've got somebody like
you just said that today he will you know

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get up on the right side of

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the bed and he's happy and everything is
fine we're going to include these people

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and we're going to talk with these people
those people won't see

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a huge amount of tariffs and we won't kill
those people and the next day it is we

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know exactly where you are we're going to
kill you we're going to hit you with

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tariffs and it's going to be beautiful um
no i don't know I

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don't know.

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I do know.

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I think someone might say to him that we
shouldn't really do this,

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but they are sending those bombers that
can penetrate the underground bunkers

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where most of the nuclear work is being
done in Iran.

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That's what people say anyway.

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You have to believe them, I suppose,
whether they'll go that far, Skalk.

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But if he presses the button, that's it.

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It'll happen.

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Yeah.

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No turning back.

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I mean, there's no turning back from
there.

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Yeah, anyway, I mean, yeah, I think.

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I think everything is telling us that.

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But I don't think this will end soon.

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I think that's the bottom line.

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I think, you know, I wish we can have a
more stable environment.

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But I think beyond that, we are way beyond
that.

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We are in a very difficult environment
because now to fix things, you need more

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countries,

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more people to sit around a table.

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And I don't think they're going to be able
to do that anymore.

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Okay, you read something.

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I'm going to read something.

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President, this was from today, by the
way.

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President Donald Trump slammed Fed Chair
Jerome Powell on Wednesday,

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hours before the central bank's interest
rate decision, calling him a stupid

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person.

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We have a stupid person, frankly, at the
Fed, Trump said.

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He probably won't cut today.

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Europe had 10 cuts and we had none.

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I guess he's a political guy.

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I don't know.

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He's a political guy who's not a smart
person, but he's costing the country a

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fortune.

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This is the chairman of the Federal
Reserve, the world's biggest bank, and One

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that he recommended,

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actually appointed, in his last
stewardship of the White House.

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And now he's saying he's a stupid person.

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You can't say a man, you can't, as
president,

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say that one of your most respected
employees, colleagues, whatever he is,

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you can't say he's stupid.

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He's a stupid person, he says.

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He wants cuts because the Trump
organisation is in such debt and so

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levered.

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But, yeah.

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Astonishing stuff, Skalk.

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And as you say, we live in strange times.

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And what is very strange is that you're
going to be on the tip of Africa,

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the most safe place in this most safe
place to be.

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Yeah.

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Funnily enough, tomorrow, tomorrow, even
in the summer round, I will be very, very

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close to

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Agalas, which will, funnily enough, be the
most southern tip of Africa.

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So I don't think I'll get any safer than
that for the weekend.

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Very good, you're always out and about but
that's for another time What else is

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happening?

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We're waiting for the Fed tonight of
course I don't think that with the oil

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price doing what it's doing they can
possibly cut

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No, no, no, no,

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Jerome Powell won't cut even though he's a
stupid person Very stupid I mean,

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I'm still astonished I'm astonished that
this is this is your governor this is the

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chief in charge and

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you're calling him a stupid person I mean

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And that when usually as a leader of a
country or company,

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you want to create confidence, business
confidence in your country or your

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company.

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And by doing stuff like that, I mean it's
just creating absolutely no confidence.

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But anyway, that's I think for today,
yeah, I think it's just the right

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decision.

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It's a foregone conclusion that it won't
be.

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you know touching those rates if we look
at the the economists you know none of

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them really expecting any any any movement
today um but

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markets are looking a little tad better
today but we'll we'll chat about that

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today um

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On a local front,

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there's been a few companies that
reported, smallish country companies,

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so not a lot of big movements.

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But, I mean, companies that you've, you
know,

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I've been discussing many times over the
past six months have been under massive,

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massive pressure.

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Suddenly, they're the stars.

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I mean, your likes of your...

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pgm counters remember how we discussed how
bad these pgm counters have been doing um

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and now we're sitting here with the

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likes of impala platinum and this to
yesterday's uh close um impala platinum

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2025 up 65 northern platinum percent

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72 percent here we go sabania's still i
mean not for the best obviously scalp we

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have to make we have to make this

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this point just like retail sales numbers.

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from South Africa today up 5.1%, but as
the analyst pointed out, off a low base.

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But nonetheless, 5.1% for retail sales,
which has been in the doldrums, and back

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to your point on PGMs,

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which we've been banging on about for a
while now, and I don't know how many

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people have noticed it.

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I'm going off on a tangent here, as I
always do.

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I can't find anyone to talk to me about
PGMs.

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It's almost as though there's a bloke that
you forgot about that lives down at the

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end of the corridor in the office.

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and you knock on his door and he's sitting
there and he's covered in dust and you say

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oh by the way have you seen platinum and
he has a look there's nobody i can speak

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to

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it's infuriating you might help i mean you
might help me in that regard but anyway go

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on i i do

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believe in platinum i i do believe in
palladium and the pgms in general and

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we've had the discussion the world
platinum council for

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three years in a row well it's now the
third year in a row where where they

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basically telling us that that uh the

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the demand outstrip the supply by a
country mile i mean 500 odd

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um 500 odd million um shortages in in in

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2023 in 955 in um 966 in

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2024 and and this year they're forecasting
an hour and a 50 million so i mean it's

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it's it's

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it's crazy if you look at the shortages in
terms of um

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platinum itself and and i know that is
announced by the world platinum council so

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so naturally

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they would would be more uh focused on on
getting but you know i had that

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conversation on the on

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the on the jewelry side i'm not going to
have that conversation again but jewelry

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increased 55 over the quarter alone just
because i mean it's just much cheaper to

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do things in

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platinum play and it's just as beautiful
And so you see the demand picking up on

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that side.

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So, yes, I think,

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and if you draw that long-term graph on
platinum, this is an interesting graph.

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We've seen a breakout for the first time
in many, many, many years, more than 10

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years.

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We've seen a solid, solid breakout.

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00:13:23.429 --> 00:13:25.038
And I'm talking about a technical
breakout.

239
00:13:26.648 --> 00:13:27.851
If this thing continues…

240
00:13:29.505 --> 00:13:34.590
this could be extremely good for our
platinum counters.

241
00:13:35.051 --> 00:13:35.973
But you're right.

242
00:13:36.071 --> 00:13:38.176
I mean, Impala did.

243
00:13:38.395 --> 00:13:40.332
I mean, I'm using Impala as a proxy now.

244
00:13:41.497 --> 00:13:44.239
It's been under massive, massive pressure.

245
00:13:44.262 --> 00:13:47.848
I mean, but we're back to 2023 levels.

246
00:13:48.598 --> 00:13:54.707
Was it you I was talking to and asked you,
with tears in my eyes, if you could find a

247
00:13:54.707 --> 00:13:56.707
graph to show the...

248
00:13:56.707 --> 00:14:02.567
movement of both platinum stocks and the
platinum price how long do the bull

249
00:14:02.567 --> 00:14:04.567
markets last for how long do the bear
markets

250
00:14:04.567 --> 00:14:09.915
last for is it a sort of a great big
momentum thing and it goes on for three

251
00:14:09.915 --> 00:14:11.915
four five years or is it just a

252
00:14:11.915 --> 00:14:16.665
spike and then it comes it comes back
again because it's terribly important and

253
00:14:16.665 --> 00:14:18.665
as i said and i think it was to you the
currency markets

254
00:14:18.665 --> 00:14:20.883
currencies run and run and run or dive and
dive and dive for

255
00:14:20.993 --> 00:14:24.977
ages i just wondered if platinum has
because if it's formed to base.

256
00:14:25.693 --> 00:14:31.860
at the lower levels and is breaking out
from that base and those doldrums, then

257
00:14:31.860 --> 00:14:33.860
we're in for some fun in South Africa,

258
00:14:33.860 --> 00:14:34.481
and the Treasury must be rubbing its hands
with glee.

259
00:14:35.645 --> 00:14:36.825
Yes, that is one.

260
00:14:37.067 --> 00:14:42.911
I mean, we're going to touch on early
2020s again, but I mean, to your point, we

261
00:14:42.911 --> 00:14:42.986
add that,

262
00:14:43.395 --> 00:14:48.677
and I'm not going to give the history
lesson again, which I go for, and I

263
00:14:48.677 --> 00:14:50.677
encourage the listeners, if they want to
hear the story,

264
00:14:50.677 --> 00:14:53.974
go and listen to last week's Five O'Clock
Shadow, which was the 11th.

265
00:14:54.845 --> 00:14:55.545
of June.

266
00:14:55.687 --> 00:15:02.536
But there we actually discussed that
period where the platinum just

267
00:15:02.989 --> 00:15:05.677
literally doubled up, tripled up in some
extent.

268
00:15:05.778 --> 00:15:09.239
It was a massive movement in PGM prices.

269
00:15:09.700 --> 00:15:14.271
Over that same period we had, and I'm
talking about, let's call it mid-2005.

270
00:15:17.157 --> 00:15:23.864
um impala platinum was trading around
about the 63 64 round levels yeah and by

271
00:15:24.188 --> 00:15:30.149
let's call it um 2008 so that's that's a
four-year period also again i'm talking

272
00:15:30.149 --> 00:15:30.208
about mid-2008

273
00:15:31.110 --> 00:15:37.954
a full four four years later um the share
price was was trading well well over uh

274
00:15:37.954 --> 00:15:39.954
three thousand

275
00:15:39.954 --> 00:15:44.797
uh 540 rounds so i mean so that's a that
was a that was a crazy bull market

276
00:15:45.248 --> 00:15:51.734
and a crazy bull market that lasted for
four years so don't don't think that this

277
00:15:51.734 --> 00:15:53.734
is so so now we're talking about let's
call it that uh

278
00:15:53.734 --> 00:15:59.504
period 2018 um up to just call it
post-covered where we've also seen a a

279
00:15:59.621 --> 00:16:03.293
movement back to to some of these pgm
prices uh

280
00:16:03.294 --> 00:16:09.824
impala platinum went from 18 rand levels
to again you know well over uh 3 000 round

281
00:16:09.824 --> 00:16:11.824
um

282
00:16:11.824 --> 00:16:14.777
so it's it's we've seen three thousand and
you listen to what I'm saying.

283
00:16:15.981 --> 00:16:18.804
$300,000.

284
00:16:18.805 --> 00:16:19.923
$300,000.

285
00:16:19.924 --> 00:16:20.624
Yeah.

286
00:16:20.624 --> 00:16:20.884
$300,000.

287
00:16:20.927 --> 00:16:23.287
And again, that was a four-year period.

288
00:16:24.552 --> 00:16:30.998
Yeah, we've seen the prices drop back from
those levels again well to, let's call it,

289
00:16:30.998 --> 00:16:32.998
50,

290
00:16:32.998 --> 00:16:34.998
60-rand levels again.

291
00:16:34.998 --> 00:16:37.248
But I do believe that the PGM counters are
looking quite attractive,

292
00:16:37.685 --> 00:16:42.451
purely because we still need these PGMs
for…

293
00:16:43.432 --> 00:16:49.699
several industrial uses mainly the
combustion engine we still use it for for

294
00:16:49.699 --> 00:16:51.699
jewelry purposes

295
00:16:51.699 --> 00:16:56.445
um and and we are the biggest producer i
mean second second in platinum

296
00:16:57.250 --> 00:16:59.031
largest in in

297
00:16:59.343 --> 00:17:05.921
is russia and and as as as i last heard
russia still very much sanctioned in in

298
00:17:05.921 --> 00:17:07.921
you know in war with with

299
00:17:07.921 --> 00:17:12.484
ukraine so if you need any of the pgms i'm
talking about platinum palladium or

300
00:17:12.484 --> 00:17:12.606
rhodium

301
00:17:13.212 --> 00:17:20.201
uh i mean south africa south africa um is
the place to be but if you take that

302
00:17:20.201 --> 00:17:22.201
period 2000 the school of that 2021

303
00:17:22.201 --> 00:17:26.943
2022 where we've had that massive run in
in both the the let's call pgm counters

304
00:17:26.943 --> 00:17:28.943
and gold

305
00:17:28.943 --> 00:17:33.131
go and look at our current account over
that same period how we went for this

306
00:17:33.146 --> 00:17:38.131
is the point i'm making people saying i
really love platinum etc and the reason

307
00:17:38.131 --> 00:17:40.131
that i do

308
00:17:40.131 --> 00:17:45.096
is because during times when one of our
major exports, when one of South Africa's

309
00:17:45.096 --> 00:17:47.096
major exports is doing well,

310
00:17:47.096 --> 00:17:49.003
then the money just rolls in skulk and
they've had a lean time.

311
00:17:49.284 --> 00:17:55.503
So they are expecting it and I hope they
get it because that would be an enormous

312
00:17:55.503 --> 00:17:57.503
boost for the country,

313
00:17:57.503 --> 00:18:02.159
the people of the country, and also the
South African Rand.

314
00:18:02.268 --> 00:18:04.503
It could go back to 15.5, 16.

315
00:18:05.660 --> 00:18:12.563
yeah we we we're still running um deficits
for now when i look at the current account

316
00:18:12.563 --> 00:18:14.563
naturally not major major

317
00:18:14.563 --> 00:18:19.520
deficits uh i mean like like a u.s deficit
but we we still got kind of smallish

318
00:18:19.520 --> 00:18:21.520
deficits but that period where i just

319
00:18:21.520 --> 00:18:26.457
mentioned that the pgm that uh that's
called 2020 to 2022 first quarter

320
00:18:26.458 --> 00:18:30.145
2022 that was the the heydays the the big

321
00:18:30.239 --> 00:18:35.249
runs in gold and pgm prices that period we
run massive,

322
00:18:35.389 --> 00:18:37.950
massive surpluses every single quarter.

323
00:18:38.790 --> 00:18:42.618
I mean, and don't be surprised if we see a
repeat of that.

324
00:18:42.900 --> 00:18:49.525
And like I told the client this morning,
because he said, oh, I mean, all the

325
00:18:49.525 --> 00:18:51.525
companies are so focused on cutting costs.

326
00:18:51.525 --> 00:18:53.525
I mean, how are we going to grow?

327
00:18:53.525 --> 00:18:54.501
I said, well, yes, that's the main
problem.

328
00:18:55.126 --> 00:18:57.923
If you've got companies that keep on
cutting,

329
00:18:58.454 --> 00:19:02.454
they're getting literally lean and mean.

330
00:19:02.861 --> 00:19:03.561
But now...

331
00:19:03.844 --> 00:19:09.008
Suddenly, you've got the BGM that runs
25%, 30%.

332
00:19:10.450 --> 00:19:13.911
A lot of these people need to employ
people to come and help at the mines.

333
00:19:14.957 --> 00:19:20.465
They're starting to do expansions, things
that they've laid off, improvements, and

334
00:19:20.465 --> 00:19:22.465
those kind of things.

335
00:19:22.465 --> 00:19:23.637
This is where the likes of the Udacos
again come in,

336
00:19:24.106 --> 00:19:29.387
where they come and service some of these
diesel engine pods.

337
00:19:30.428 --> 00:19:36.593
Those guys go and shop at ShopRite and
pick and pay and suddenly your economy

338
00:19:36.593 --> 00:19:38.593
goes from only a 1%

339
00:19:38.593 --> 00:19:41.499
grower to a 3% to 5% grower where we
should be growing.

340
00:19:42.359 --> 00:19:48.218
Your unemployment rate suddenly goes from
31% or 33% down to the 20% levels.

341
00:19:48.219 --> 00:19:50.624
And don't say it will never, ever happen.

342
00:19:50.702 --> 00:19:51.402
Well, it did.

343
00:19:51.402 --> 00:19:55.406
2004, which I just mentioned, where we
were also in the Donald Trumps.

344
00:19:56.500 --> 00:20:03.248
We suddenly had this massive spike in the
commodity cycle or the specific

345
00:20:03.248 --> 00:20:05.248
commodities that South Africa love

346
00:20:05.248 --> 00:20:07.248
and produce.

347
00:20:07.248 --> 00:20:10.736
We had that spike and unemployment went
from also a 31%

348
00:20:11.533 --> 00:20:15.634
early 2000s to 21% in 2009.

349
00:20:15.635 --> 00:20:22.103
I know there was extra circumstances that
also happened there, but never say never,

350
00:20:22.103 --> 00:20:24.103
never, ever say never.

351
00:20:24.103 --> 00:20:25.275
There's a massive, massive base that was
started.

352
00:20:26.193 --> 00:20:32.301
to build in around about the beginning of
2016 in the platinum price.

353
00:20:34.402 --> 00:20:35.102
It's gone.

354
00:20:35.102 --> 00:20:38.926
I mean, it's a big base and it's got big
spikes and big troughs in it.

355
00:20:39.543 --> 00:20:46.379
But it went from around about $880 an
ounce, platinum that is,

356
00:20:46.988 --> 00:20:52.785
and had a spike around about the COVID
time, got up to $1,200 plus,

357
00:20:52.973 --> 00:20:54.316
just over $1,200.

358
00:20:54.348 --> 00:21:01.035
But essentially, if you draw a line
through this, I'm looking at a graph from

359
00:21:01.035 --> 00:21:03.035
an organisation called Bullion Vault and
also

360
00:21:03.035 --> 00:21:04.956
Kitco on the other screen, it's a big
base.

361
00:21:05.120 --> 00:21:06.058
And during basing,

362
00:21:06.363 --> 00:21:13.230
what basing tells you is that there's no
demand and then suddenly supply starts to

363
00:21:13.261 --> 00:21:15.605
constrict because there's no demand.

364
00:21:15.606 --> 00:21:21.902
So they say, we're going to mothball this
particular shaft, which South African

365
00:21:21.902 --> 00:21:23.902
mines did last year.

366
00:21:23.902 --> 00:21:25.902
They did exactly that.

367
00:21:25.902 --> 00:21:30.643
and laid off lots of people sadly in that
area of course socio-economically suffered

368
00:21:30.643 --> 00:21:32.643
greatly

369
00:21:32.643 --> 00:21:38.065
but don't you don't get don't be too
depressed chaps because the good times are

370
00:21:38.065 --> 00:21:40.065
coming back by the looks of it and it's
breaking out as you

371
00:21:40.065 --> 00:21:40.760
rightly said of that um of

372
00:21:40.807 --> 00:21:47.260
that base and it can go to 2200 2300
something like that i think if it if it

373
00:21:47.260 --> 00:21:49.260
really wants to run

374
00:21:49.260 --> 00:21:52.354
it is a bit spiky but It's not one of
those lovely continuation.

375
00:21:53.012 --> 00:21:59.658
charts that you see and you can just you
can get in it's all nice and orderly you

376
00:21:59.658 --> 00:22:01.658
have to be on your toes but um

377
00:22:01.658 --> 00:22:06.443
the base that i'm seeing is the base for a
big big rally skulk yeah yeah yeah no no

378
00:22:07.209 --> 00:22:09.271
this is um and it's it one

379
00:22:09.272 --> 00:22:15.771
can say well it'll never happen well it
did happen it it did did happen i mean

380
00:22:16.428 --> 00:22:22.812
when we look at back in the high days i
mean as i mentioned up to 2008 I mean,

381
00:22:23.252 --> 00:22:28.192
the platinum price ran to $2,200 per
ounce, as you just mentioned.

382
00:22:28.492 --> 00:22:33.176
I mean, history will why do I say this?

383
00:22:33.177 --> 00:22:34.012
History don't repeat itself.

384
00:22:34.013 --> 00:22:34.713
It often rhymes.

385
00:22:37.012 --> 00:22:40.731
Don't be surprised if this we had a
massive breakout.

386
00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:43.700
And, I mean, it's always nice.

387
00:22:43.793 --> 00:22:47.090
I mean, you've been on the other side as
well.

388
00:22:47.091 --> 00:22:48.418
I took many, many years ago.

389
00:22:48.700 --> 00:22:53.267
You've been on on the buyer side but you
also you've dealt with a lot of these

390
00:22:53.267 --> 00:22:55.267
hedge fund

391
00:22:55.267 --> 00:22:57.111
traders and and structured structures and
those kind of things you

392
00:22:57.112 --> 00:23:04.076
know the the derivative market is a big
market when you've got a period you know

393
00:23:04.076 --> 00:23:04.121
which

394
00:23:04.121 --> 00:23:10.529
we've seen in 2023 2024 and even even up
to earlier this year where you

395
00:23:10.826 --> 00:23:17.170
still keep on seeing the pgm prices being
under pressure yet when you read all the

396
00:23:17.170 --> 00:23:17.214
reports

397
00:23:17.556 --> 00:23:22.261
It's showing these massive shortages,
massive demand, but not enough supply.

398
00:23:22.761 --> 00:23:23.542
What's happening?

399
00:23:23.941 --> 00:23:30.445
Well, clearly somebody out there or a few
people out there are saying, ah, this is

400
00:23:30.445 --> 00:23:32.445
the best trade.

401
00:23:32.445 --> 00:23:37.851
Platinum and palladium are going to go to
zero eventually because there's going to

402
00:23:37.851 --> 00:23:39.851
be no demand with electric vehicles that's
going

403
00:23:39.851 --> 00:23:41.851
to take over the world in the next few
months.

404
00:23:41.851 --> 00:23:42.007
And it's going to go to zero, so we short
it.

405
00:23:42.523 --> 00:23:46.710
Well, eventually, when that doesn't happen
as quickly as it's supposed to be doing.

406
00:23:47.156 --> 00:23:50.119
I mean, you get a thing called margin
call.

407
00:23:50.980 --> 00:23:55.228
And then you get these little spikes that
we've seen over the past few weeks.

408
00:23:55.229 --> 00:23:56.806
And this spike is not stopping yet.

409
00:23:57.228 --> 00:23:59.290
It's not stopping anytime soon.

410
00:23:59.345 --> 00:24:02.728
So, yeah, fun and games, fun and games.

411
00:24:02.775 --> 00:24:06.478
I wonder how many people have got these
structures in place or had the structures

412
00:24:06.478 --> 00:24:08.478
in place,

413
00:24:08.478 --> 00:24:13.478
the selling the calls and buying the puts
on the PGMs, you know, a really wide

414
00:24:13.478 --> 00:24:15.478
strategy.

415
00:24:15.478 --> 00:24:17.478
What is that called?

416
00:24:17.478 --> 00:24:22.852
it's a fence you get put spritz put spritz
or you get the the fence i mean what you

417
00:24:22.852 --> 00:24:24.852
what you mentioned you can

418
00:24:24.852 --> 00:24:30.118
you you buy a put and you you sell a few
calls a little bit higher up so you sort

419
00:24:30.118 --> 00:24:32.118
of protect it in in between if it drops
below

420
00:24:32.118 --> 00:24:34.259
your your you know where you bought your
put um you're

421
00:24:34.260 --> 00:24:41.087
gonna you're gonna be making money or not
making money you're just not gonna lose

422
00:24:41.087 --> 00:24:43.087
anything else but if it runs beyond that
you

423
00:24:43.087 --> 00:24:45.977
need to cover those those uh those calls
that you've you've you've thought it.

424
00:24:46.240 --> 00:24:52.030
yes okay yeah that's horrible i know i
know that i know that watching that screen

425
00:24:52.030 --> 00:24:52.148
i

426
00:24:53.854 --> 00:25:00.349
sold them i sold them at 25 look at the 45
bid Isn't that horrible?

427
00:25:01.791 --> 00:25:02.931
It is!

428
00:25:02.994 --> 00:25:03.694
And it's crazy.

429
00:25:04.553 --> 00:25:05.513
To listeners out there,

430
00:25:05.533 --> 00:25:12.463
go and read up on things called fences or
derivative fence or put spreads.

431
00:25:12.502 --> 00:25:13.986
I mean, it's fascinating.

432
00:25:14.439 --> 00:25:15.361
And dangerous.

433
00:25:15.362 --> 00:25:16.533
Fascinatingly dangerous.

434
00:25:16.534 --> 00:25:17.234
Excuse me.

435
00:25:18.252 --> 00:25:24.221
Literally, this is how things like this,
because a lot of people will say, but how

436
00:25:24.221 --> 00:25:26.221
the hell did

437
00:25:26.221 --> 00:25:26.939
Lindsay and Scott chat about

438
00:25:27.288 --> 00:25:34.236
a platinum price staying around about the
900 to a thousand dollar levels for i want

439
00:25:34.236 --> 00:25:36.236
to say years

440
00:25:36.236 --> 00:25:41.298
i mean if we tell it about that how did it
suddenly go from from those levels

441
00:25:41.298 --> 00:25:43.298
literally 30 percent higher in two three

442
00:25:43.298 --> 00:25:44.103
weeks time well that's how it happens you

443
00:25:44.197 --> 00:25:50.806
suddenly hit those those marks and you
need to cover aka buy back those those

444
00:25:50.806 --> 00:25:52.806
those those

445
00:25:52.806 --> 00:25:54.806
uh it's called short positions.

446
00:25:54.806 --> 00:25:55.994
And when you do that, you go high and you
hit the next guy's

447
00:25:56.656 --> 00:26:03.382
uh more um trigger point and and they need
to start buying back and before you know

448
00:26:03.382 --> 00:26:05.382
that your

449
00:26:05.382 --> 00:26:10.452
your pgm price is trading 30 percent
higher yeah um interesting times they are

450
00:26:10.452 --> 00:26:12.452
let's have a look at some interesting

451
00:26:12.452 --> 00:26:17.234
markets now ahead of the fed dollar round
is 1795 uh which is a dollar that is down

452
00:26:17.234 --> 00:26:17.590
a

453
00:26:17.590 --> 00:26:22.718
third of a percent um the british pound
against the round is 24 17 and the euro

454
00:26:22.718 --> 00:26:22.762
round is

455
00:26:22.762 --> 00:26:25.859
2068 euro dollar

456
00:26:26.232 --> 00:26:30.315
1.1520 won't be there at half past eight
South African time this evening.

457
00:26:30.955 --> 00:26:35.342
And the British pound is 1.3465 against
the greenback.

458
00:26:35.701 --> 00:26:40.686
Let's have a look at the commodities which
have dominated our conversations this

459
00:26:40.686 --> 00:26:40.909
evening.

460
00:26:41.326 --> 00:26:44.326
We haven't spoken about gold, but let's do
so because it's very quiet.

461
00:26:44.373 --> 00:26:48.248
It's down just a few dollars at $33.89 per
ounce.

462
00:26:48.639 --> 00:26:54.076
The platinum price, the aforementioned, is
up 3% and a bit at $13.06.

463
00:26:54.077 --> 00:26:54.777
and palladium.

464
00:26:55.096 --> 00:26:59.442
A bit of a lag at up 0.4% at $10.60 per
ounce.

465
00:26:59.443 --> 00:27:03.727
The oil price has been extraordinarily
volatile for obvious reasons.

466
00:27:04.329 --> 00:27:09.930
At the moment Brent crude oil is $74.93
down 2%

467
00:27:09.931 --> 00:27:13.079
and crude in the Texas variety of crude,
West Texas,

468
00:27:13.407 --> 00:27:18.500
is $73.56 down 1.2%.

469
00:27:18.501 --> 00:27:20.063
Any other big moves on my screen?

470
00:27:20.282 --> 00:27:21.547
No, not much.

471
00:27:21.641 --> 00:27:22.563
Natural gas up 3%.

472
00:27:23.110 --> 00:27:23.810
three percent.

473
00:27:24.288 --> 00:27:25.369
At the moment, right.

474
00:27:25.409 --> 00:27:29.352
Let's go back and have a look at some of
the, there's no news on the, as you said,

475
00:27:29.652 --> 00:27:36.340
there's some bitty noises coming out of
the JSC listed companies in terms of

476
00:27:36.340 --> 00:27:38.340
trading updates and

477
00:27:38.340 --> 00:27:40.340
results, etc.

478
00:27:40.340 --> 00:27:41.340
But nothing to get your teeth into today,
Scott.

479
00:27:41.606 --> 00:27:46.527
No, for the listeners out there that say
we always run by the moment, Metrofile,

480
00:27:46.543 --> 00:27:51.012
they had a further caution announcement
still saying that somebody is trying to

481
00:27:51.012 --> 00:27:53.012
take them over.

482
00:27:53.012 --> 00:27:54.463
This will be the second time because we
know they're in the 2020s.

483
00:27:55.785 --> 00:28:02.070
There was an attempt, I can't remember
what the company's name was, but an

484
00:28:02.070 --> 00:28:04.070
attempt to actually take over

485
00:28:04.070 --> 00:28:08.156
Metrophile, but it was abandoned due to
the whole COVID-19 pandemic.

486
00:28:09.625 --> 00:28:16.359
But today they just reiterated that
there's ongoing talks of a possible

487
00:28:16.359 --> 00:28:18.359
takeover and that

488
00:28:18.359 --> 00:28:20.062
saw Metrophile in a trading 6.7% higher.

489
00:28:20.920 --> 00:28:23.364
Braid came out with their financial
results.

490
00:28:23.422 --> 00:28:28.450
I thought Braid is sort of on the, I mean,
it's a company that's taken a lot of flack

491
00:28:28.450 --> 00:28:30.450
from myself personally.

492
00:28:30.450 --> 00:28:33.512
I mean, we always joked about this being
just a Virgin Active play now,

493
00:28:34.090 --> 00:28:36.434
which it still most probably is.

494
00:28:36.435 --> 00:28:43.020
I mean, 60, 62% of the nav is made up of
Virgin Active, but people are clearly,

495
00:28:43.489 --> 00:28:48.567
I don't know if that song in the 80s hit
that perfect beat body.

496
00:28:49.082 --> 00:28:49.782
I mean,

497
00:28:50.190 --> 00:28:56.833
So people are clearly hitting that perfect
beat body because the members have been

498
00:28:56.833 --> 00:28:56.912
growing

499
00:28:57.173 --> 00:28:57.873
Virgin Active.

500
00:28:58.271 --> 00:29:00.974
The revenue is up 13% for Virgin Active
itself.

501
00:29:01.489 --> 00:29:03.794
EBITDA up 45% year on year.

502
00:29:03.833 --> 00:29:05.435
So things are looking good.

503
00:29:06.286 --> 00:29:12.068
They've spun off the other large holding,
which is about 30 or 32%

504
00:29:12.161 --> 00:29:13.536
of the company's premier group.

505
00:29:14.068 --> 00:29:16.255
And that you and I chatted about two weeks
ago.

506
00:29:16.739 --> 00:29:17.739
Very good results.

507
00:29:17.833 --> 00:29:19.458
Solid set of results.

508
00:29:19.862 --> 00:29:26.309
coming from that that food group and then
you look i mean we can't even touch it i

509
00:29:26.309 --> 00:29:28.309
think it's three percent of the total
knife but i mean

510
00:29:28.309 --> 00:29:32.418
uh i heard a commentator today had a very
interesting spin on this still trading at

511
00:29:32.418 --> 00:29:34.418
a 30 discount and

512
00:29:34.418 --> 00:29:39.637
we get the feeling when you read these
these results is that they sort of setting

513
00:29:39.637 --> 00:29:41.637
up a

514
00:29:41.637 --> 00:29:46.215
possible listing for virgin active itself
um which could be really really

515
00:29:46.215 --> 00:29:48.215
interesting because that that'll be

516
00:29:48.215 --> 00:29:49.999
most of bright pretty much being listed
itself.

517
00:29:50.580 --> 00:29:53.262
So you're talking about derivative play.

518
00:29:53.442 --> 00:29:58.828
If you've got a long, bright, and a short
Premier group,

519
00:29:59.211 --> 00:30:03.391
you're pretty much taking a full-on view
on Virgin Active.

520
00:30:03.414 --> 00:30:05.867
So it's an interesting take on that.

521
00:30:05.930 --> 00:30:09.055
But I thought that Bright's results look
good.

522
00:30:10.383 --> 00:30:15.821
They've been under massive, massive
pressure, headwinds upon headwinds, where

523
00:30:15.821 --> 00:30:17.821
they eventually had to do

524
00:30:17.821 --> 00:30:23.277
uh raj raj issues a successful one for
that matter um but they had to do it but

525
00:30:23.277 --> 00:30:25.277
it seems seems like

526
00:30:25.277 --> 00:30:30.043
that that is that is back on track and i'm
not even going to talk about renogen

527
00:30:30.043 --> 00:30:32.043
renogen we know that there's a there's a
there's a there's a

528
00:30:32.043 --> 00:30:35.293
a possible merger with the asp isotopes um

529
00:30:35.308 --> 00:30:42.230
most probably if that is concluded we'll
we'll see renogen change its name or being

530
00:30:42.230 --> 00:30:44.230
uh inwardly listed

531
00:30:44.230 --> 00:30:46.230
to ASP isotopes.

532
00:30:46.230 --> 00:30:48.230
But as I mentioned, we're not going to
really...

533
00:30:48.230 --> 00:30:53.140
going to no no you've already lost me
anyway nodding off there i feel like

534
00:30:53.140 --> 00:30:55.140
donald trump at the military

535
00:30:55.140 --> 00:30:59.867
parade listening to you with that stuff
you can't tell me that i didn't even try

536
00:30:59.867 --> 00:31:01.867
and make boring exciting so

537
00:31:01.867 --> 00:31:06.820
yeah yeah you did very well if you're
desperate enough to trade braids against

538
00:31:06.820 --> 00:31:08.820
um uh the virgin active if

539
00:31:08.820 --> 00:31:13.601
it does this then really i think you may
be you may be in in the wrong sphere of

540
00:31:13.601 --> 00:31:15.601
employment.

541
00:31:15.601 --> 00:31:17.601
Skalk?

542
00:31:17.601 --> 00:31:20.829
I want to ask you something because I'm
not a subscriber to any of these fancy

543
00:31:20.829 --> 00:31:22.829
screens.

544
00:31:22.829 --> 00:31:23.567
I just happen to go on the internet and
get stuff.

545
00:31:24.051 --> 00:31:25.770
Have you got the CRB index graph?

546
00:31:27.012 --> 00:31:27.731
Can you get it?

547
00:31:28.653 --> 00:31:29.934
Very quickly as well, yeah.

548
00:31:29.935 --> 00:31:32.723
Yeah, and I'll do some talking while you
do that.

549
00:31:32.817 --> 00:31:36.036
I'll go through some numbers.

550
00:31:36.583 --> 00:31:39.692
US 10-year treasury bond is 4.35%.

551
00:31:39.770 --> 00:31:42.911
That's all important, of course, ahead of
the US interest rate decision.

552
00:31:43.192 --> 00:31:46.578
the S&P 500 is 6,064,

553
00:31:46.579 --> 00:31:50.520
which is the September futures up 0.4%.

554
00:31:51.180 --> 00:31:56.262
The South African 10-year is 10.11%, which
is respectable.

555
00:31:56.621 --> 00:31:59.778
Didn't like it below 10%, but I'm sure
it'll retry there.

556
00:32:00.481 --> 00:32:06.942
Bitcoin, 104,700, we'll call it, up
slightly,

557
00:32:07.457 --> 00:32:08.161
0.4% higher.

558
00:32:08.957 --> 00:32:11.770
I've given you the CRB index.

559
00:32:12.364 --> 00:32:13.692
Well, I've given you the oil price.

560
00:32:14.122 --> 00:32:20.947
i've given you that uh so let's go back
now and have a look at movers on the jjc

561
00:32:20.947 --> 00:32:22.947
while skulk is digging out the

562
00:32:22.947 --> 00:32:28.057
crb index long-term graph because it's at
a recent high i know that he's still

563
00:32:28.057 --> 00:32:30.057
digging like it is oh you've

564
00:32:30.057 --> 00:32:33.940
got it have you okay tell me i couldn't
get back to where it has been higher than

565
00:32:33.940 --> 00:32:35.940
its current level of 385

566
00:32:35.940 --> 00:32:39.533
roughly what have you got you're gonna
You're looking at 10-year data,

567
00:32:40.033 --> 00:32:44.945
and that's usually A bit of a problem.

568
00:32:45.685 --> 00:32:50.029
So, yeah, it's not trading at the all-time
highs yet.

569
00:32:51.052 --> 00:32:52.693
I'm putting it at the all-time one now.

570
00:32:52.771 --> 00:32:55.896
If you look at it on a 10-year basis let
me see.

571
00:32:55.897 --> 00:32:56.597
Here we go.

572
00:32:56.597 --> 00:32:58.357
There we go.

573
00:32:58.358 --> 00:33:02.474
I got the 10-year, but today's price was
still the highest in 10 years, I thought.

574
00:33:02.615 --> 00:33:03.315
No?

575
00:33:03.315 --> 00:33:03.549
Am I wrong?

576
00:33:03.549 --> 00:33:03.941
Yes.

577
00:33:04.286 --> 00:33:06.271
It is the highest in 10 years, definitely.

578
00:33:07.630 --> 00:33:11.411
So if you look at the commodity index,
it's been

579
00:33:12.062 --> 00:33:17.686
you see you see the 385 levels which is a
which is a 10 year 10 year high but in

580
00:33:17.768 --> 00:33:24.335
2009 um it was as high as 400 and just shy
of 460.

581
00:33:24.756 --> 00:33:31.163
okay so 75 points to go to all-time record
highs roughly correct correct

582
00:33:31.506 --> 00:33:36.569
correct but if you look at this graph
which um my graph is running you know from

583
00:33:36.569 --> 00:33:38.569
from the beginning of

584
00:33:38.569 --> 00:33:40.585
1994, where the data actually started.

585
00:33:42.212 --> 00:33:44.254
Yeah, if you look at this graph now,

586
00:33:44.715 --> 00:33:50.881
and you want to call an end to the school
of the commodity super cycle, you're going

587
00:33:50.881 --> 00:33:52.881
to be a brave,

588
00:33:52.881 --> 00:33:54.881
brave man doing so.

589
00:33:54.881 --> 00:33:56.881
Because this graph...

590
00:33:56.881 --> 00:33:58.881
It's powerful, eh?

591
00:33:58.881 --> 00:34:00.881
This is powerful.

592
00:34:00.881 --> 00:34:00.936
And just for anyone that doesn't know, CRB
means Commodity Research Bureau.

593
00:34:01.248 --> 00:34:02.639
It's an index of commodities.

594
00:34:02.936 --> 00:34:05.936
And it goes from everything from maize to
methanol.

595
00:34:06.233 --> 00:34:10.967
I mean the methanol price example I can
give you in front of my screen here I can

596
00:34:10.967 --> 00:34:11.277
look at

597
00:34:11.277 --> 00:34:18.133
different types of steel if you want hrc
steel whatever that is i can give it to

598
00:34:18.133 --> 00:34:20.133
you titanium milk prices

599
00:34:20.133 --> 00:34:25.812
everything canola oil so every single
commodity that industry and you and i use

600
00:34:25.812 --> 00:34:27.812
every single day

601
00:34:27.812 --> 00:34:29.336
is on this thing craft pulp that's

602
00:34:29.476 --> 00:34:36.383
that's on here it's a down 10.43 percent
for the year so far but the lean hogs are

603
00:34:36.383 --> 00:34:36.771
doing

604
00:34:36.771 --> 00:34:41.006
much better they're on 23 percent Anyway,
you get the picture.

605
00:34:41.326 --> 00:34:43.190
The world has been buying commodities.

606
00:34:43.229 --> 00:34:48.291
It is dominated by energy prices, but
these other ones are still important.

607
00:34:49.276 --> 00:34:50.596
No, for sure.

608
00:34:51.697 --> 00:34:52.838
It's a well-balanced.

609
00:34:53.041 --> 00:34:58.721
I think that's why they haven't changed it
because usually people tend to turn around

610
00:34:58.721 --> 00:34:59.062
and say,

611
00:34:59.062 --> 00:35:03.268
but it's really, really skewed in terms of
energy prices,

612
00:35:03.269 --> 00:35:05.877
the Brent or West Texas Indymedia.

613
00:35:06.424 --> 00:35:13.245
But I think it's a… beautiful beautiful uh
beautiful index and it's giving you an

614
00:35:13.245 --> 00:35:15.245
idea of where we are

615
00:35:15.245 --> 00:35:20.194
and i think like i said the the commodity
super cycle i think it's still very very

616
00:35:20.194 --> 00:35:22.194
much intact

617
00:35:22.194 --> 00:35:25.741
julie goods um i i promised you some um
jsc

618
00:35:26.756 --> 00:35:33.709
winners and losers where's my thing gonna
there it is um i've got karu at 4.7 in

619
00:35:33.709 --> 00:35:35.709
plats up four percent african

620
00:35:35.709 --> 00:35:37.993
rainbow minerals are 3.3 percent winner we
buy cars up three and a quarter.

621
00:35:38.453 --> 00:35:40.556
Northern Platinum up just over 3%.

622
00:35:41.175 --> 00:35:45.663
On the downside, DRD Gold 2.6% weaker.

623
00:35:45.718 --> 00:35:48.460
Vodacom 2.2 and a third, let's call it.

624
00:35:48.484 --> 00:35:49.741
Advertec 2.1.

625
00:35:50.148 --> 00:35:51.405
Telcom 2% down.

626
00:35:51.843 --> 00:35:55.148
Kumba Iron Ore just under 2% lower.

627
00:35:55.288 --> 00:35:56.663
Any others that I've missed, Scott?

628
00:35:57.648 --> 00:35:59.913
No, I think you've covered them all.

629
00:36:00.195 --> 00:36:00.895
I think...

630
00:36:00.895 --> 00:36:01.551
Good.

631
00:36:01.929 --> 00:36:03.835
In that case, you get on with the indices,
please.

632
00:36:04.932 --> 00:36:11.699
so jc all share close to that 94 993
points uh that is up 35 basis

633
00:36:11.820 --> 00:36:18.664
points resource index up 48 base up 58
basis points while industrial index were

634
00:36:18.664 --> 00:36:18.942
up

635
00:36:19.406 --> 00:36:25.968
52 basis points uh financial index that
was uh just just keeping itself in the

636
00:36:26.390 --> 00:36:33.359
in the positive with a rant this was a bit
under pressure six basis points positive

637
00:36:33.359 --> 00:36:35.359
while the sa property index

638
00:36:35.359 --> 00:36:38.973
that was up 34 basis points we look at the
value trade value trade today uh let's

639
00:36:38.973 --> 00:36:39.173
just quickly

640
00:36:39.173 --> 00:36:41.813
open that one up on my screen um

641
00:36:42.231 --> 00:36:49.075
that's uh not a bad day 25 billion traded
through the market but i mean we've been

642
00:36:49.075 --> 00:36:51.075
we've been seeing solid solid uh

643
00:36:51.075 --> 00:36:55.614
values going through the jse lately i mean
past five days uh we haven't really seen

644
00:36:55.614 --> 00:36:57.614
it below 30 billion i mean

645
00:36:57.614 --> 00:37:02.400
yesterday 34 day before that just show 39
day before that also just show 39 so yeah

646
00:37:02.400 --> 00:37:04.400
not Not bad.

647
00:37:04.400 --> 00:37:06.400
Final question.

648
00:37:06.400 --> 00:37:08.400
Very final question.

649
00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:10.400
Quick answer.

650
00:37:10.400 --> 00:37:12.400
The JSC Limited listed on the JSC itself.

651
00:37:12.400 --> 00:37:14.400
What's it been doing because of those high
volumes that you've just spoken of?

652
00:37:14.400 --> 00:37:15.392
We've been one of the better.

653
00:37:15.838 --> 00:37:22.338
I mean, I looked at that data over the
weekend and South Africa now find itself

654
00:37:22.338 --> 00:37:24.338
as that just

655
00:37:24.338 --> 00:37:24.400
I think it's now moved into the 10th
position.

656
00:37:25.478 --> 00:37:27.572
10th best performing country in the sea.

657
00:37:28.922 --> 00:37:34.285
for 2025. But the actual share price of
JSC Limited, has that been responding as

658
00:37:34.285 --> 00:37:34.666
well?

659
00:37:35.527 --> 00:37:36.867
I haven't checked.

660
00:37:36.906 --> 00:37:39.648
I can go and check, but that won't be it.

661
00:37:39.695 --> 00:37:40.492
We'll do that next time.

662
00:37:40.515 --> 00:37:43.453
It's interesting to see because it doesn't
often get mentioned on this show.

663
00:37:43.515 --> 00:37:45.273
It's never in the winners and losers,

664
00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:52.289
but it surely must be very gratified by
big numbers that you spew out every time

665
00:37:52.290 --> 00:37:53.351
we talk, which is nice.

666
00:37:53.700 --> 00:37:55.562
Skalk, thanks very much for your time as
always.

667
00:37:55.582 --> 00:37:59.564
Skalk Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak Division.

668
00:37:59.725 --> 00:38:01.869
Skalk, I want you to drive safely this
weekend.

669
00:38:02.049 --> 00:38:02.830
You're going away.

670
00:38:03.533 --> 00:38:04.892
Be careful on the roads.

671
00:38:04.908 --> 00:38:11.736
We want you back next Wednesday with the
JSC Limited and all sorts of other things

672
00:38:11.736 --> 00:38:13.736
that are undoubtedly going to happen
between now

673
00:38:13.736 --> 00:38:15.736
and then.

674
00:38:15.736 --> 00:38:19.892
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

675
00:38:19.892 --> 00:38:21.892
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

676
00:38:21.892 --> 00:38:22.642
position or opinion of any other agency.

677
00:38:22.880 --> 00:38:29.542
organization employer or company
associated with

678
00:38:29.542 --> 00:38:31.542
strictlybusinesspodcast.com assumptions

679
00:38:31.542 --> 00:38:36.425
made on the analyses are not reflective of
the position of any other entity other

680
00:38:36.425 --> 00:38:38.425
than the speaker or the author and

681
00:38:38.425 --> 00:38:43.331
since we are critically thinking human
beings these views are always subject to

682
00:38:43.331 --> 00:38:45.331
change revision and rethinking

683
00:38:45.331 --> 00:38:47.050
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in perpetuity