WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:04.550 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.069 --> 00:00:08.530 The JSC is closed at stores for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:08.530 --> 00:00:08.672 shadow. 4 00:00:08.672 --> 00:00:15.015 And as always on a Thursday, I speak to David Shapiro from Sasson Securities, 5 00:00:15.015 --> 00:00:17.015 accompanied by Viv Govender from RAND Swiss. 6 00:00:17.015 --> 00:00:21.702 And I'm going to start with you, David, because we're quite good at bashing South 7 00:00:21.702 --> 00:00:23.702 Africa, justifiably so, it must be said. 8 00:00:23.702 --> 00:00:28.718 But we have to now have a look at a couple of positive things, and that is it's 9 00:00:28.718 --> 00:00:30.718 linked to inflation, which is under control. 10 00:00:30.718 --> 00:00:35.259 It's also linked to a working paper from the South African Reserve Bank, which is 11 00:00:35.259 --> 00:00:37.259 proposing a 3% 12 00:00:37.259 --> 00:00:39.259 target for inflation. 13 00:00:39.259 --> 00:00:41.200 And also the South African 10-year bond rate going below 10% 14 00:00:41.568 --> 00:00:44.247 for the first time for three years. 15 00:00:44.747 --> 00:00:50.599 Also at the same time, and this could be all linked to the RAND strength and 16 00:00:50.599 --> 00:00:52.599 everything, is the soaring 17 00:00:52.599 --> 00:00:54.599 PGM stocks. 18 00:00:54.599 --> 00:00:55.755 It's the second time they've done it in about a month. 19 00:00:56.114 --> 00:00:57.661 And that, of course, is so good. 20 00:00:58.080 --> 00:01:04.886 for the fiscus oh and how you know it's absolute surprise to me because um i 21 00:01:04.906 --> 00:01:11.871 watch the market every day and i and i like to look at what's gone up what's 22 00:01:11.871 --> 00:01:13.871 going you know what's going down and you start to build a pattern 23 00:01:13.871 --> 00:01:15.871 in your mind and 24 00:01:15.871 --> 00:01:20.199 i think what alerted me to the market you mentioned the one yesterday was the uh 25 00:01:20.199 --> 00:01:22.199 fall of the 26 00:01:22.199 --> 00:01:25.605 10-year bond below uh 10 since i think it was the last day as you said three years 27 00:01:25.605 --> 00:01:25.946 ago 28 00:01:26.052 --> 00:01:28.194 in 2022 at the time of COVID. 29 00:01:28.696 --> 00:01:29.496 So that was the one. 30 00:01:29.516 --> 00:01:32.418 The other, I looked at 91 share price. 31 00:01:32.419 --> 00:01:33.119 Yes. 32 00:01:33.137 --> 00:01:35.598 And it was up nearly 8%. 33 00:01:35.599 --> 00:01:36.299 Yeah, what was that? 34 00:01:36.700 --> 00:01:37.403 And I said, why? 35 00:01:37.404 --> 00:01:38.762 Yeah, exactly. 36 00:01:38.763 --> 00:01:44.778 You know, in other words, why would a company whose earnings, you know, earnings 37 00:01:44.778 --> 00:01:46.778 growth, 38 00:01:46.778 --> 00:01:51.840 which is what it was an earnings contraction, because when I see brackets 39 00:01:51.840 --> 00:01:53.840 in the numbers, I start to get a little worried, you know, things are going 40 00:01:53.840 --> 00:01:55.840 backwards. 41 00:01:55.840 --> 00:01:57.840 And yet, there was nothing really that... 42 00:01:57.840 --> 00:02:00.210 that Hendrik said, you know, you can make a story about him going into the Middle 43 00:02:00.210 --> 00:02:02.210 East or something like that. 44 00:02:02.210 --> 00:02:04.210 But there was nothing spectacular there. 45 00:02:04.210 --> 00:02:06.210 Nothing against Hendrik. 46 00:02:06.210 --> 00:02:08.210 Really, I mean that sincerely. 47 00:02:08.210 --> 00:02:10.210 It's just conditions in the market. 48 00:02:10.210 --> 00:02:10.358 And the market goes up 8%. 49 00:02:10.905 --> 00:02:13.640 So it gives you an idea there's massive money around. 50 00:02:14.077 --> 00:02:17.343 Some of it might just be hedging type money. 51 00:02:17.843 --> 00:02:21.452 Or alternatively, there are local institutions who feel, you know, that... 52 00:02:21.600 --> 00:02:24.543 that shares are cheap and they've got to go in. 53 00:02:24.903 --> 00:02:27.625 So there's something there that's driving the market up. 54 00:02:27.645 --> 00:02:32.629 We've got another update, as you mentioned, by there's quite a big, 55 00:02:33.075 --> 00:02:35.653 the platinum price was almost up 4% today. 56 00:02:36.153 --> 00:02:42.223 Suddenly, Valtera, which is the old Amplit, which was down yesterday and 57 00:02:42.223 --> 00:02:44.223 starting to lose momentum, 58 00:02:44.223 --> 00:02:46.223 suddenly shoots up 8% or 9%. 59 00:02:46.223 --> 00:02:48.223 So, yeah. 60 00:02:48.223 --> 00:02:48.843 And one of the reasons is not just the platinum price, 61 00:02:48.844 --> 00:02:53.066 but also BlackRock has taken an extra state up to six and a third percent now. 62 00:02:53.129 --> 00:02:55.250 So, yes, something's brewing there. 63 00:02:55.251 --> 00:02:56.211 And it has been for a while. 64 00:02:56.212 --> 00:02:58.672 It's ever since all the platinum mines cut costs. 65 00:02:58.953 --> 00:03:02.382 Viv, it's not your area, but you're a keen watcher of everything. 66 00:03:02.836 --> 00:03:05.101 So would you be cautiously optimistic? 67 00:03:05.679 --> 00:03:09.961 GDP's rubbish, PMI's horrible, business confidence is down in the dumps. 68 00:03:10.148 --> 00:03:11.648 So we've got to celebrate something. 69 00:03:11.726 --> 00:03:13.554 All South Africans have got to celebrate something. 70 00:03:13.816 --> 00:03:17.016 and inflation and the Reserve Bank are two things to celebrate, I think. 71 00:03:17.116 --> 00:03:20.499 And that bond and RAND market, very, very good indeed at the moment. 72 00:03:21.756 --> 00:03:28.440 You know, look, I mean, the Reserve Bank is, you know, easily one of the best 73 00:03:28.440 --> 00:03:30.440 performing parts of government. 74 00:03:30.440 --> 00:03:32.385 What they've done with regards to inflation controls, as well as Iran. 75 00:03:32.807 --> 00:03:35.526 I mean, people complain in South Africa about, you know, the Iran weakening and so 76 00:03:35.526 --> 00:03:36.008 on. 77 00:03:36.008 --> 00:03:41.464 But, I mean, compared to our peers, Brazil, Turkey, you know, and in fact, 78 00:03:41.464 --> 00:03:43.464 like Turkey is wealthier than us. 79 00:03:43.464 --> 00:03:45.464 Brazil is like larger than us. 80 00:03:45.464 --> 00:03:49.480 And those places have not had anywhere near the stability that the South African 81 00:03:49.480 --> 00:03:51.480 Reserve Bank has managed to give to the country. 82 00:03:51.480 --> 00:03:55.941 Not just this last governor, all our governors have been, with slight 83 00:03:55.941 --> 00:03:57.941 exceptions for short periods of time, have been exceptional, 84 00:03:57.941 --> 00:03:59.972 you know, to call us, you know, managers of the currency. 85 00:04:00.410 --> 00:04:03.706 But regarding the platinum price, the thing is up almost 20% in the last month. 86 00:04:05.191 --> 00:04:08.831 Apparently there's demand from China that's like, you know, pushing things up a 87 00:04:08.831 --> 00:04:09.282 bit. 88 00:04:09.588 --> 00:04:13.554 They say even jewelry demand is also on the rise in China, which might be 89 00:04:13.554 --> 00:04:15.554 interesting because, I mean, 90 00:04:15.554 --> 00:04:18.875 platinum has generally been recently an industrial story with regards to vehicles 91 00:04:18.875 --> 00:04:20.875 and so on. 92 00:04:20.875 --> 00:04:25.664 But maybe there comes a point where the difference in price between platinum and 93 00:04:25.664 --> 00:04:27.664 gold becomes more due to the, how can I say, 94 00:04:27.664 --> 00:04:29.664 to the jewelry demand, 95 00:04:31.054 --> 00:04:33.711 the supplementary demand here, the substitution demand rather. 96 00:04:34.179 --> 00:04:40.933 where if you know if you go to the shop and buy yourself a platinum jewel put a 97 00:04:40.933 --> 00:04:42.933 piece of jewelry and selling gold is so much more expensive then obviously the 98 00:04:42.933 --> 00:04:44.933 more to pay for 99 00:04:44.933 --> 00:04:46.933 platinum goes up as well because you know it's it's a linked demand around jewelry 100 00:04:46.933 --> 00:04:51.605 uh which is going to be interesting i think price factor for the uh the uh white 101 00:04:51.605 --> 00:04:53.605 metal Yeah, 102 00:04:53.605 --> 00:04:55.605 there's definitely something going on here. 103 00:04:55.605 --> 00:04:56.011 And if it runs, it runs its thing. 104 00:04:56.230 --> 00:05:00.617 And before you go on, David, you saw Wayne McCurry, who recently retired. 105 00:05:00.632 --> 00:05:06.820 You saw him on Friday for a catch-up, and he's been very, very bullish or was very 106 00:05:06.820 --> 00:05:08.820 bullish in his portfolios for platinum stocks. 107 00:05:08.820 --> 00:05:09.882 And of course, as soon as he retires, the thing takes off. 108 00:05:10.288 --> 00:05:17.226 But anyway, I'm sure his successor has maintained that position and is starting 109 00:05:17.226 --> 00:05:19.226 to do well. 110 00:05:19.226 --> 00:05:21.226 But you were going to say something, David. 111 00:05:21.226 --> 00:05:25.479 You know, all I want to say, one of the countermeasures against your argument 112 00:05:25.479 --> 00:05:27.479 about the platinum PGMs, 113 00:05:27.479 --> 00:05:30.643 and I'm not separating them into rhodiums and that because I haven't got those 114 00:05:30.643 --> 00:05:32.643 prices. 115 00:05:32.643 --> 00:05:36.627 But if you look for the last three years, they've been very range bound in RAND 116 00:05:36.627 --> 00:05:36.671 terms. 117 00:05:37.065 --> 00:05:37.765 Yes. 118 00:05:37.765 --> 00:05:44.174 At the top end now, you know, they hover in terms of an ounce. 119 00:05:44.190 --> 00:05:47.455 I'm talking RAND per ounce or something because that's all I can convert it to. 120 00:05:47.956 --> 00:05:54.942 It goes between 17,000 and 19,000, looking like a hospital chart. 121 00:05:55.462 --> 00:06:02.251 And it's at the top end now, admittedly, but it hasn't broken through into any high 122 00:06:02.251 --> 00:06:02.271 levels. 123 00:06:02.407 --> 00:06:09.032 It was higher at one point than this in 2024 and certainly a lot higher than that 124 00:06:09.032 --> 00:06:09.482 in 125 00:06:09.482 --> 00:06:10.595 2023 and so on. 126 00:06:10.626 --> 00:06:15.923 You can go all the way back to 2021. So that's the point. 127 00:06:16.208 --> 00:06:19.332 They sell it and receive rands, and if the rand does strengthen, 128 00:06:19.691 --> 00:06:26.541 it does take a little bit of the shine or burnish off the kind of movements we're 129 00:06:26.541 --> 00:06:26.655 seeing in the 130 00:06:26.655 --> 00:06:27.502 price at the moment. 131 00:06:29.017 --> 00:06:31.900 But still, the share prices are going. 132 00:06:32.877 --> 00:06:39.330 I wish they would just do a little bit more to make a clean break of it, but 133 00:06:39.330 --> 00:06:41.330 they're also in this kind of trend. 134 00:06:41.330 --> 00:06:42.111 But at least they're pointing on the upside. 135 00:06:42.361 --> 00:06:43.502 They're more on the upside then. 136 00:06:43.888 --> 00:06:47.511 So on the downside, we're ready to break through. 137 00:06:47.512 --> 00:06:48.212 Okay. 138 00:06:48.212 --> 00:06:48.394 Lindsay, no doubt, what's happening? 139 00:06:48.395 --> 00:06:51.296 I'll come to the commodity prices later on. 140 00:06:52.292 --> 00:06:55.261 Viv, let's look at what's happening overseas. 141 00:06:55.277 --> 00:06:59.222 We've got the new German chancellor probably at this very moment meeting with 142 00:06:59.761 --> 00:07:04.964 Trump. Trump's bill is getting some stick from an ex-South African. 143 00:07:05.074 --> 00:07:06.808 And I find that whole thing extraordinary. 144 00:07:06.917 --> 00:07:08.074 Things have gone quiet on the U.S. 145 00:07:08.152 --> 00:07:10.870 markets, let's face it, gratifyingly so, I think. 146 00:07:11.089 --> 00:07:13.183 But it never goes quiet when Trump's up. 147 00:07:13.208 --> 00:07:19.575 to mischief and elon musk as well the things musk has said now that he's got his 148 00:07:19.575 --> 00:07:21.575 key to the white house in that 149 00:07:21.575 --> 00:07:26.618 ceremony it's quite amazing viv i'll start with you on this one before david weighs 150 00:07:26.618 --> 00:07:28.618 in look i mean the thing about trump about 151 00:07:28.618 --> 00:07:30.391 musk is that he actually does seem to believe some of these things you know what 152 00:07:30.391 --> 00:07:32.391 i mean so 153 00:07:32.391 --> 00:07:37.454 the the things he's saying around the deficit uh does seem to be something like 154 00:07:37.454 --> 00:07:39.454 based on true belief as opposed to just like trying to 155 00:07:39.454 --> 00:07:41.454 make some kind political point, I would think. 156 00:07:41.454 --> 00:07:46.947 And it might actually be a factor going into the midterms because he's somebody 157 00:07:46.947 --> 00:07:48.947 that can go out and 158 00:07:48.947 --> 00:07:53.986 push through things like, for instance, the more deficit hawkish people like Messi 159 00:07:53.986 --> 00:07:55.986 and so on. 160 00:07:55.986 --> 00:07:58.986 That being said, look, I mean, the thing that no one wants to talk about is the 161 00:07:58.986 --> 00:08:00.986 fact that the U.S. 162 00:08:00.986 --> 00:08:01.361 deficit is due to very, very popular programs. 163 00:08:01.970 --> 00:08:05.142 It's because, you know, retirement programs, welfare programs, medical 164 00:08:05.142 --> 00:08:07.142 programs. 165 00:08:07.142 --> 00:08:08.611 These are things that are driving the U.S. 166 00:08:08.673 --> 00:08:09.373 deficit. 167 00:08:09.373 --> 00:08:12.975 It's not so much, you know, discretionary spending without the possible exception of 168 00:08:12.975 --> 00:08:13.235 the military. 169 00:08:13.295 --> 00:08:15.318 And nobody wants to cut the military when China is rising. 170 00:08:16.080 --> 00:08:21.182 So the idea that you go in and you cut, you know, enough from the U.S., you know, 171 00:08:22.002 --> 00:08:24.783 budget to waste and fraud is not quite there. 172 00:08:24.947 --> 00:08:31.393 Surprisingly, the U.S., you know, despite all the impressions out there, seems to 173 00:08:31.393 --> 00:08:33.393 have a reasonably well-functioning, non-corrupt government. 174 00:08:33.393 --> 00:08:37.877 And so if you want to really do something with the deficit, which probably needs to 175 00:08:37.877 --> 00:08:39.877 be done, I mean, he's correct in saying that you get about like 27 percent. 176 00:08:39.877 --> 00:08:44.319 of your budget going towards paying for interest payments is not exactly a recipe 177 00:08:44.319 --> 00:08:46.319 for future stability. 178 00:08:46.319 --> 00:08:52.143 But I mean, how are you in a democracy going to cut all rich pensions or, you 179 00:08:52.143 --> 00:08:54.143 know, child health care or, you know, those kind of things? 180 00:08:54.143 --> 00:08:56.143 That's just not possible at the moment. 181 00:08:56.143 --> 00:08:58.549 You know who made the same point as you did, is your own pal. 182 00:08:59.456 --> 00:09:05.221 In a private interview, well, one of those economic clubs said they had those 183 00:09:05.221 --> 00:09:07.221 interviews at the time of 184 00:09:07.221 --> 00:09:09.706 Doge at the time that Elon Musk was at his time, he said exactly the same. 185 00:09:09.725 --> 00:09:16.050 He says, if you want to cut the deficit, it's the social programs that make up all 186 00:09:16.050 --> 00:09:18.050 the amounts. 187 00:09:18.050 --> 00:09:23.612 And Lindsay, if you think about it, the only way to cut it is to outgrow it. 188 00:09:25.050 --> 00:09:29.425 You've got to grow the revenue stream rather than trying to cut the cost, 189 00:09:30.471 --> 00:09:36.824 stopping people using the photostat machine or taking two foods of sugar 190 00:09:36.824 --> 00:09:38.824 instead of one, it's not going to do anything. 191 00:09:38.824 --> 00:09:45.735 So I think many of the programs where they cut people is not going to show any 192 00:09:45.735 --> 00:09:47.735 meaningful cut in 193 00:09:47.735 --> 00:09:49.735 the deficit. 194 00:09:49.735 --> 00:09:51.735 That's where it lies. 195 00:09:51.735 --> 00:09:53.735 You've got to grow your way out of this. 196 00:09:53.735 --> 00:09:54.938 Talking about growing your way out of it, the ECB did something very interesting 197 00:09:54.938 --> 00:09:56.938 today. 198 00:09:56.938 --> 00:09:58.907 And the markets reacted strangely. 199 00:09:58.908 --> 00:10:01.126 Well, the currencies reacted strangely too, I think. 200 00:10:01.127 --> 00:10:02.188 I mean, cutting rates to 2%. 201 00:10:02.548 --> 00:10:08.542 It's almost saying we believe that Trump's policies are going to affect Europe and 202 00:10:08.542 --> 00:10:10.542 cause turmoil. 203 00:10:10.542 --> 00:10:12.085 So we're going to have to have some kind of economic buffer against that. 204 00:10:12.366 --> 00:10:18.671 And I've got the euro now up another quarter of a percent, the dollar under 205 00:10:18.671 --> 00:10:20.671 pressure once more, 1.1450, we'll call it, 206 00:10:20.671 --> 00:10:22.671 that exchange rate. 207 00:10:22.671 --> 00:10:24.671 And things going well. 208 00:10:24.671 --> 00:10:25.194 Both of you, actually, I mean, the European markets, are they on your radar 209 00:10:25.194 --> 00:10:27.194 as well? 210 00:10:27.194 --> 00:10:29.881 Because I know a lot of people have been looking at European banks in the last six 211 00:10:29.881 --> 00:10:31.881 months or so. 212 00:10:31.991 --> 00:10:34.272 The European equities in general, have they... 213 00:10:34.603 --> 00:10:40.688 Have they sort of caught your eye as people are saying, well, maybe America 214 00:10:40.688 --> 00:10:42.688 needs to be trimmed a bit and we should be looking at Europe, 215 00:10:42.688 --> 00:10:45.630 particularly European banks, which I know have been the focus of a lot of interest 216 00:10:45.630 --> 00:10:47.630 recently? 217 00:10:47.630 --> 00:10:49.380 Yeah, look, I mean, one thing I did see with Europe, I don't know if you guys saw 218 00:10:49.380 --> 00:10:49.799 this. 219 00:10:49.799 --> 00:10:51.536 Do you see the Irish GDP number coming out? 220 00:10:51.724 --> 00:10:52.424 No. 221 00:10:52.424 --> 00:10:54.145 Hit the roof. 222 00:10:54.505 --> 00:10:55.364 Hit the roof. 223 00:10:55.365 --> 00:10:56.065 Wow. 224 00:10:56.083 --> 00:10:59.770 They did more in the last quarter than the Eurozone has grown in the last decade. 225 00:11:00.692 --> 00:11:01.392 I'm not joking. 226 00:11:01.395 --> 00:11:02.114 In the last few months. 227 00:11:04.425 --> 00:11:07.529 I look at it, it's amazing. 228 00:11:07.548 --> 00:11:09.829 Through the roof. 229 00:11:09.931 --> 00:11:12.771 Unfortunately, the Eurozone as a whole, I'm pretty pessimistic about. 230 00:11:13.872 --> 00:11:20.138 I do think that, especially with the tech focus that I do tend to have, they've just 231 00:11:20.138 --> 00:11:22.138 kind of regulated themselves out of the market. 232 00:11:22.138 --> 00:11:26.466 It's insane that all the brains that create all this tech in the UK, US, sorry, 233 00:11:26.466 --> 00:11:28.466 are European. 234 00:11:28.466 --> 00:11:31.732 They are from England, they are from, you know, France. 235 00:11:32.800 --> 00:11:38.285 But they are not creating the value in the Eurozone, they're creating it in the US. 236 00:11:38.746 --> 00:11:43.753 And quite frankly, looking at the Eurozone going forward, I mean, what is the sectors 237 00:11:43.753 --> 00:11:43.930 going to grow? 238 00:11:43.930 --> 00:11:45.933 Are they going to be making handbags for the Chinese forever? 239 00:11:46.933 --> 00:11:49.097 Because their car sector is falling apart, quite frankly. 240 00:11:49.957 --> 00:11:51.957 Because I mean, they're not going to be able to compete. 241 00:11:51.958 --> 00:11:58.738 I mean, Tesla was enough of a challenge, but BYD, when that comes to the full into 242 00:11:58.738 --> 00:12:00.738 the world market, unless they have like, you know, tariff restrictions. 243 00:12:00.738 --> 00:12:04.933 The value proposition for a BYD vehicle versus a Mercedes-Benz or a BMW is just 244 00:12:04.933 --> 00:12:04.954 ridiculous. 245 00:12:05.715 --> 00:12:07.972 Are they going to be relying on banking? 246 00:12:09.121 --> 00:12:11.480 What is the European advantage going forward? 247 00:12:11.918 --> 00:12:16.777 And the idea that they can repurpose their car sector for defense, I mean, that is 248 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:19.386 I just don't see that going forward. 249 00:12:19.387 --> 00:12:24.652 So I'm really concerned about Europe in the long term because I don't see what 250 00:12:24.652 --> 00:12:26.652 exactly Europe is doing out there. 251 00:12:26.652 --> 00:12:27.980 They're not manufacturing except for basically, like I said, luxury goods. 252 00:12:28.455 --> 00:12:32.560 And, you know, everything else about the economy doesn't seem to be in great 253 00:12:32.560 --> 00:12:32.698 condition. 254 00:12:33.459 --> 00:12:38.627 Talking about BYD, by the way, BYD is launching three new models in South 255 00:12:38.627 --> 00:12:38.764 Africa. 256 00:12:38.845 --> 00:12:45.587 It launched them in April and it's expanding its dealership network to 30 to 257 00:12:45.587 --> 00:12:47.587 35 by next year. 258 00:12:47.587 --> 00:12:49.587 I mean, that's quite big. 259 00:12:49.587 --> 00:12:51.587 I mean, there'll be no BMWs. 260 00:12:51.587 --> 00:12:53.587 It will be BYDs from now on, David. 261 00:12:53.587 --> 00:12:55.587 Yeah. 262 00:12:55.587 --> 00:12:56.447 If you go look at the distributorships, I know Mercedes is cutting back. 263 00:12:57.055 --> 00:13:00.958 on the space that it takes, which was all along. 264 00:13:01.181 --> 00:13:07.829 You know, the top end of the market is absolutely being ravaged by these new 265 00:13:07.829 --> 00:13:09.829 Chinese models, and there's so many. 266 00:13:09.829 --> 00:13:11.829 I don't know. 267 00:13:11.829 --> 00:13:12.149 You know, I just see names of motorcars now that I've never seen before. 268 00:13:12.751 --> 00:13:13.712 Where does this come from? 269 00:13:13.727 --> 00:13:14.837 I can't even pronounce it. 270 00:13:15.149 --> 00:13:17.149 But, I mean, you know, I can't remember them. 271 00:13:17.196 --> 00:13:19.618 But, listen, these are not bad, hey. 272 00:13:20.556 --> 00:13:22.743 In South Africa, you just want to get from A to B. 273 00:13:23.555 --> 00:13:24.255 That's it. 274 00:13:24.255 --> 00:13:28.936 And on our roads, it's better that you have a car that falls apart if it hits a 275 00:13:28.936 --> 00:13:30.936 pothole than a Mercedes, 276 00:13:30.936 --> 00:13:31.577 which you'll never afford to get repaired. 277 00:13:31.936 --> 00:13:37.178 So don't underestimate what the and look at We Buy Cars. 278 00:13:37.577 --> 00:13:38.358 That's all they want. 279 00:13:38.522 --> 00:13:40.163 They want the Chinese models. 280 00:13:40.538 --> 00:13:42.975 They don't want Mercedes or BMWs. 281 00:13:44.459 --> 00:13:48.038 I think you went through the Japanese or the Korean thing. 282 00:13:48.678 --> 00:13:50.444 Yes, they used to be garbage. 283 00:13:50.616 --> 00:13:52.459 I've looked at a new vehicle recently for my wife. 284 00:13:53.489 --> 00:13:57.600 These companies are offering you a 10-year, million-kilometer guarantee on 285 00:13:57.600 --> 00:13:59.600 your drive train. 286 00:13:59.600 --> 00:14:04.975 is this the chinese market the chinese the chinese companies in africa they're 287 00:14:04.975 --> 00:14:06.975 offering vehicles that have like unbelievable features for like 288 00:14:06.975 --> 00:14:11.541 under 600 500 000 rounds quite frankly like i think that you stuff you wouldn't 289 00:14:11.541 --> 00:14:13.541 see on like a million round honda 290 00:14:13.541 --> 00:14:18.893 you're getting for the 500 000 round uh you know vehicle and like i said the 291 00:14:18.893 --> 00:14:20.893 guarantees that they're putting i spoke to a mechanic recently and he was saying that 292 00:14:20.893 --> 00:14:22.440 he does not see any of these vehicles coming to his workshop because they are 293 00:14:22.486 --> 00:14:28.522 under such massive warranties they don't take them to like mechanics for repairs 294 00:14:28.522 --> 00:14:30.522 It's just like like i mean a million kilometer 295 00:14:30.522 --> 00:14:35.748 10th uh year warranty on your drivetrain that is pretty pretty strong you know what 296 00:14:35.748 --> 00:14:37.748 i mean 297 00:14:37.748 --> 00:14:43.373 yeah i remember like the japanese they started off they were yeah whatever until 298 00:14:43.373 --> 00:14:45.373 the until toyota became like the definition of quality 299 00:14:45.373 --> 00:14:50.623 and the kias and the hyundas used to be the cheap cars until if you look at now 300 00:14:50.623 --> 00:14:52.623 the kids are quite expensive i think the chinese 301 00:14:52.623 --> 00:14:56.810 i mean they make the iphone they make a lot of the high-tech stuff in the world 302 00:14:56.810 --> 00:14:58.810 there's no reason and these guys are not able to make 303 00:14:58.810 --> 00:15:04.235 cars really cheaply i mean i was amazed at the quality of your getting just just just 304 00:15:04.235 --> 00:15:06.235 to bring you up to date yes 305 00:15:06.235 --> 00:15:11.778 uh you know just as we got on air the news came out that mr g and mr trump had spoken 306 00:15:11.778 --> 00:15:13.778 and i was looking at the market yeah 307 00:15:13.778 --> 00:15:18.762 because when i looked at the market initially you know it was hovering in no 308 00:15:18.762 --> 00:15:20.762 man's land but i now see that u.s markets have gone 309 00:15:20.762 --> 00:15:24.075 into quite strong positive territory you know particularly from where they were so 310 00:15:24.076 --> 00:15:26.881 uh the nasdaq which was down zero. 311 00:15:27.222 --> 00:15:28.804 Flats is now up a half a percent. 312 00:15:29.105 --> 00:15:31.167 And the S&P is also up a quarter percent. 313 00:15:31.168 --> 00:15:32.827 But I think that's on the news. 314 00:15:33.589 --> 00:15:38.171 And European markets have also picked up all in the green, you know, 315 00:15:38.710 --> 00:15:41.038 on the backdrop of this talk. 316 00:15:41.116 --> 00:15:43.015 What came out of the talk, I haven't seen. 317 00:15:43.233 --> 00:15:44.374 You know, there's been no news. 318 00:15:44.812 --> 00:15:47.937 And it was reported on the Chinese side, not on the American side. 319 00:15:48.343 --> 00:15:53.124 And it was also reported yesterday that Trump and Putin had talked for 75 minutes. 320 00:15:53.421 --> 00:15:55.827 And Putin said to Trump, well, I'm going to... 321 00:15:56.137 --> 00:15:59.141 I'm going to retaliate for what they did to us. 322 00:15:59.221 --> 00:16:01.443 And Trump says, OK, fair enough. 323 00:16:01.724 --> 00:16:05.107 And there's still no word of sanctions, extra sanctions against them. 324 00:16:05.428 --> 00:16:06.467 It's just absurd. 325 00:16:06.468 --> 00:16:07.670 But anyway, he's talking. 326 00:16:07.685 --> 00:16:08.771 At least he's talking to them. 327 00:16:08.772 --> 00:16:10.232 At least he's being proactive. 328 00:16:10.490 --> 00:16:11.810 David, you had other points to make. 329 00:16:11.811 --> 00:16:13.349 You said you had a few points to make. 330 00:16:13.662 --> 00:16:14.362 What have you got? 331 00:16:14.693 --> 00:16:15.393 Yeah, that's one. 332 00:16:15.393 --> 00:16:22.178 The other thing, Viv will love this, because in the top 10 stocks, in the top 333 00:16:22.178 --> 00:16:22.424 10 334 00:16:22.865 --> 00:16:27.667 US stocks today, in a broad comp, which is another chip maker, 335 00:16:27.708 --> 00:16:30.591 is now in number seven position above Tesla. 336 00:16:32.091 --> 00:16:37.919 If you include TSM, because it is quoted in America, that actually comes in at 337 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:39.919 number 10, 338 00:16:39.919 --> 00:16:41.919 kind of pushing Walmart out. 339 00:16:41.919 --> 00:16:45.208 So in the top 10 capitalized companies, highest value companies, and I'm including 340 00:16:46.317 --> 00:16:48.583 Taiwan, there are three chip companies now. 341 00:16:49.130 --> 00:16:55.114 NVIDIA, which is number one, Broadcom in number seven, and TSM in number 10. 342 00:16:56.453 --> 00:16:59.335 So just interesting how, and I mean, they weren't there. 343 00:16:59.796 --> 00:17:00.496 What? 344 00:17:01.080 --> 00:17:02.458 Last year, they weren't even there. 345 00:17:03.060 --> 00:17:05.384 Or two years ago, certainly, NVIDIA wasn't there. 346 00:17:05.845 --> 00:17:12.525 So it's quite incredible to see how these companies have grown in value, pushing out 347 00:17:12.525 --> 00:17:14.525 JP Morgan, Walmart, Eli Lilly, 348 00:17:14.525 --> 00:17:16.525 all of those companies. 349 00:17:16.525 --> 00:17:18.525 And will it continue? 350 00:17:18.525 --> 00:17:20.525 Will the domination continue, Viv, on this one? 351 00:17:20.525 --> 00:17:22.525 It's just a phase. 352 00:17:22.525 --> 00:17:24.525 Do you know who Mary Mika is? 353 00:17:24.525 --> 00:17:26.525 Yes. 354 00:17:26.525 --> 00:17:28.525 She's a famous analyst. 355 00:17:28.525 --> 00:17:30.525 I mean, she used to have an annual report on the tech sector. 356 00:17:30.525 --> 00:17:32.525 They used to come out every year. 357 00:17:32.525 --> 00:17:34.525 And I think the last one she did was like in 2019. 358 00:17:34.525 --> 00:17:36.525 She just released a new report. 359 00:17:36.525 --> 00:17:38.525 I think in this last couple of days, it was like 340 pages. 360 00:17:38.525 --> 00:17:40.525 And I've looked through it. 361 00:17:40.525 --> 00:17:42.525 It's amazing. 362 00:17:42.525 --> 00:17:44.525 I mean, some of the stats, they are crazy. 363 00:17:44.525 --> 00:17:46.525 It's by far the fastest adoption of any technology in the world. 364 00:17:46.525 --> 00:17:50.043 And the one thing she mentioned was the fact that as much as the revenue growth in 365 00:17:50.043 --> 00:17:52.043 like, you know, for instance, the best performing one, 366 00:17:52.043 --> 00:17:52.215 which is open AI, has gone like parabolic. 367 00:17:52.677 --> 00:17:59.444 the amount that they're spending is even higher yes and and all that all that money 368 00:17:59.444 --> 00:18:01.444 goes to these these chip companies yeah 369 00:18:01.444 --> 00:18:06.389 yeah exactly and the other interesting thing here that's what's amazing was that 370 00:18:06.389 --> 00:18:08.389 take a guess at how much 371 00:18:08.389 --> 00:18:11.421 per token costs have dropped in the last decade how much hundred 372 00:18:11.530 --> 00:18:18.389 thousand times not a hundred thousand percent hundred thousand times the last 373 00:18:18.389 --> 00:18:20.389 decade okay that's amazing and she's 374 00:18:20.389 --> 00:18:23.473 also mentioned the fact that i mean you're starting to see for instance uh patents uh 375 00:18:23.473 --> 00:18:25.473 you know in the computer sector 376 00:18:25.473 --> 00:18:30.495 have more than doubled from the exotic average in the last year or so and we are 377 00:18:30.495 --> 00:18:32.495 also seeing instance uh effects coming through like uh in the 378 00:18:32.495 --> 00:18:33.854 pharmaceutical sector where uh people using new ai like techniques 379 00:18:33.916 --> 00:18:39.096 have dropped the testing time for you know the first stage of drug testing down by 380 00:18:39.096 --> 00:18:41.096 like 50 percent 381 00:18:42.362 --> 00:18:48.543 it's the same time that things are happening but probably because ai would 382 00:18:48.543 --> 00:18:50.543 like alpha fold and so So, It's a huge report, 383 00:18:50.543 --> 00:18:51.308 but there's so many stats in there that are just mind-blowing. 384 00:18:51.968 --> 00:18:53.890 It's like open AI, basically. 385 00:18:54.409 --> 00:18:55.526 One thing you mentioned was this. 386 00:18:56.792 --> 00:19:00.378 Usually in the past, there was a saying that the future is here, but it's not 387 00:19:00.378 --> 00:19:02.378 evenly distributed. 388 00:19:02.378 --> 00:19:03.456 So there's parts of the world that are in the future and some parts of the world are 389 00:19:03.456 --> 00:19:03.626 in the past. 390 00:19:04.065 --> 00:19:10.612 With AI, because what happened was in the last couple of years, everywhere in the 391 00:19:10.612 --> 00:19:12.612 world has gotten broadband technology because of the last revolution, the 392 00:19:12.612 --> 00:19:14.612 internet revolution. 393 00:19:14.612 --> 00:19:16.612 Everywhere in the world is using AI. 394 00:19:16.612 --> 00:19:18.612 The amount of people using AI in India is way more than the amount of people using 395 00:19:18.612 --> 00:19:20.612 AI in India. 396 00:19:20.612 --> 00:19:22.612 in the US. 397 00:19:22.612 --> 00:19:24.960 So, AI consumption in places like sub-Saharan Africa are way ahead of 398 00:19:24.960 --> 00:19:26.960 schedule for what 399 00:19:26.960 --> 00:19:28.960 the adoption rates were for cell phones. 400 00:19:28.960 --> 00:19:30.362 And in fact, 90% of the use of AI is outside the U.S. 401 00:19:30.823 --> 00:19:31.523 at the moment. 402 00:19:31.870 --> 00:19:35.011 So, it just shows that it's not going to be a case where the U.S. 403 00:19:35.012 --> 00:19:35.712 is going to produce it. 404 00:19:36.073 --> 00:19:39.636 But it's not going to be like, oh, you're going to wait 10 years for whatever to 405 00:19:39.636 --> 00:19:39.712 happen elsewhere. 406 00:19:39.901 --> 00:19:41.183 And here's another stat that's amazing. 407 00:19:41.542 --> 00:19:47.901 Here's a stat on driverless ride shares in San Francisco, which is the earliest 408 00:19:47.901 --> 00:19:49.901 adoption city, right? 409 00:19:49.901 --> 00:19:55.073 when these things first came out uh way more stuff first came out uh around about 410 00:19:55.073 --> 00:19:57.073 a third 37 percent of uh 411 00:19:57.073 --> 00:20:02.479 rides you know taxi rides were by right here right down to 90 percent these are 412 00:20:02.479 --> 00:20:04.479 automatic 413 00:20:04.479 --> 00:20:05.971 the general automatic has gone from zero to 27. 414 00:20:05.972 --> 00:20:12.830 yeah so they've overtaken uber i 415 00:20:12.846 --> 00:20:18.751 spoke to an analyst from ubs who who does the motor section He loves, first of all, 416 00:20:19.352 --> 00:20:22.335 I'll tell you what, he's an engineer. 417 00:20:22.897 --> 00:20:24.135 He knows motorcars. 418 00:20:24.417 --> 00:20:31.163 They strip the Chinese vehicles and were absolutely amazed at the quality because 419 00:20:31.163 --> 00:20:33.163 you're getting a lot of 420 00:20:33.163 --> 00:20:35.163 European engineering. 421 00:20:35.163 --> 00:20:35.186 So that was not the point I'm going. 422 00:20:35.202 --> 00:20:39.311 He says he visited San Francisco and went on one of these rides. 423 00:20:39.312 --> 00:20:44.671 He says it was absolutely incredible, felt perfectly safe, just got in with his 424 00:20:44.671 --> 00:20:44.855 family, 425 00:20:45.014 --> 00:20:47.264 sat down and never looked back. 426 00:20:47.807 --> 00:20:48.507 back. 427 00:20:48.507 --> 00:20:49.549 This was the most incredible experience. 428 00:20:49.550 --> 00:20:54.394 And is it just San Francisco or is San Francisco the one that's embraced it the 429 00:20:54.394 --> 00:20:56.394 most enthusiastically? 430 00:20:56.394 --> 00:20:58.394 Is it elsewhere? 431 00:20:58.394 --> 00:21:00.394 Would it work in New York, for example? 432 00:21:00.394 --> 00:21:02.394 San Francisco is the first, but I think they've gone to five new cities now. 433 00:21:02.394 --> 00:21:02.480 San Francisco was the first. 434 00:21:02.504 --> 00:21:05.137 And in San Francisco, in a year and a half, they're basically doing 435 00:21:05.683 --> 00:21:09.668 50% effectively more than the Ubers and stuff of the place. 436 00:21:09.855 --> 00:21:11.730 They've taken that market share away from them. 437 00:21:12.777 --> 00:21:16.152 And like I said, as David mentioned, 438 00:21:16.830 --> 00:21:23.535 It's much safer and if you are speaking to like women especially, they are very 439 00:21:23.535 --> 00:21:25.535 nervous about getting some of these vehicles because you know of the 440 00:21:25.535 --> 00:21:27.379 kind of like stories they hear and they're much actually more comfortable getting 441 00:21:27.379 --> 00:21:29.379 into a driverless 442 00:21:29.379 --> 00:21:34.347 vehicle than in a vehicle with some unknown man and it's and I think it's 443 00:21:34.347 --> 00:21:36.347 gonna it's it's a thing and I think once 444 00:21:36.347 --> 00:21:37.035 we have like for instance these things coming to South Africa and so on 445 00:21:37.551 --> 00:21:43.097 I can easily foresee that you know we would we would see the the takeoff being 446 00:21:43.097 --> 00:21:45.097 quite spectacular. 447 00:21:45.097 --> 00:21:46.404 I'm not sure about that, but you never know. 448 00:21:46.464 --> 00:21:48.044 But there's a couple of things I wanted to say. 449 00:21:48.107 --> 00:21:50.450 The first is that there I was last night watching 450 00:21:51.009 --> 00:21:56.357 Germany and Portugal play out a very dreary semifinal Nations League match and 451 00:21:56.357 --> 00:21:58.357 Ronaldo scoring. 452 00:21:58.357 --> 00:21:59.818 Meanwhile, Viv is plowing into a 340-page report. 453 00:22:00.052 --> 00:22:04.989 And that tells you something about success and dedication. 454 00:22:05.239 --> 00:22:06.927 Gentlemen, this goes out to both of you. 455 00:22:07.146 --> 00:22:12.036 Are companies spending too much on R&D or are they absolutely right? 456 00:22:12.847 --> 00:22:16.669 in predicting what is going to happen in the future, and they must spend the money 457 00:22:16.669 --> 00:22:16.830 now. 458 00:22:16.830 --> 00:22:17.993 Viv, I'll start with you on this. 459 00:22:19.134 --> 00:22:25.255 Okay, again, from the report, I'm not being like a clever here, but one thing 460 00:22:25.255 --> 00:22:27.255 that it mentioned was the fact that we are seeing, you know, 461 00:22:27.255 --> 00:22:29.802 spending in terms of like, you know, R&D and, you know, infrastructure build-out, 462 00:22:30.864 --> 00:22:35.145 being even at a higher rate than the rocket ship, every single revenue. 463 00:22:35.146 --> 00:22:40.177 So, for instance, opening your eye, massive, massive losses they're making at 464 00:22:40.177 --> 00:22:40.456 the moment. 465 00:22:40.678 --> 00:22:44.663 And the question that they put up there is that who do you think is going to last 466 00:22:44.663 --> 00:22:44.982 out? 467 00:22:44.982 --> 00:22:51.850 The company that has a little search bar that makes them 100 billion a quarter in 468 00:22:51.850 --> 00:22:53.850 revenue or a company that has to go out and raise 469 00:22:53.850 --> 00:22:55.952 funds every so often just to basically keep on in the AI race. 470 00:22:57.007 --> 00:23:02.132 So I do think that down the line, you know, it's going to be a case of the 471 00:23:02.132 --> 00:23:04.132 biggest pocketbook wins. 472 00:23:04.132 --> 00:23:07.585 And I'm not so sure that, you know, investors out there are going to be 473 00:23:07.585 --> 00:23:09.585 willing to basically spend enough money. 474 00:23:09.585 --> 00:23:09.788 And what kind of valuation do you need to put into, you know, open AI? 475 00:23:10.082 --> 00:23:16.527 to just add more to this loss making engine at the moment when you do like i 476 00:23:16.527 --> 00:23:18.527 said have google definitely 477 00:23:18.527 --> 00:23:23.937 all in on ai uh microsoft all in a meta all in on ai and these companies have you 478 00:23:23.937 --> 00:23:25.937 know 20 479 00:23:25.937 --> 00:23:27.703 30 40 billion dollars uh you know it goes per 480 00:23:28.078 --> 00:23:34.890 year so i think 75 billion dollars per year for some of these cases here of 481 00:23:34.890 --> 00:23:36.890 spending that they want to do on ai so i mean it's it's a 482 00:23:36.890 --> 00:23:41.088 huge amount of money so yeah i do think that open air has to do it But I don't 483 00:23:41.088 --> 00:23:43.088 know if they can basically afford to do it for much longer. 484 00:23:43.088 --> 00:23:48.117 Okay, David, there's the amount that's being spent, the risk of the near-term 485 00:23:48.117 --> 00:23:50.117 balance sheet and everything doesn't put you off, no? 486 00:23:50.117 --> 00:23:50.273 No, they've got to do it. 487 00:23:50.734 --> 00:23:53.758 If they don't do it, they fall behind, and that's the risk that you take. 488 00:23:54.727 --> 00:23:58.773 Any business who doesn't try to keep up with the competition will just fall 489 00:23:58.773 --> 00:23:58.848 behind. 490 00:23:58.883 --> 00:24:05.086 We've got so many examples in industry, remember, and we can quote them. 491 00:24:05.555 --> 00:24:07.320 In fact, I've already forgotten their names. 492 00:24:07.336 --> 00:24:08.036 If you go back. 493 00:24:08.036 --> 00:24:14.310 to the to IBM going through the 90s right through to where we are today from the 494 00:24:14.310 --> 00:24:14.448 internet. 495 00:24:15.195 --> 00:24:16.656 All the changes that took place, 496 00:24:17.037 --> 00:24:22.924 there's so many companies that we spoke about every day that we can't remember 497 00:24:22.924 --> 00:24:24.924 their numbers. 498 00:24:24.924 --> 00:24:26.924 Just think of the search. 499 00:24:26.924 --> 00:24:28.065 Just think of, what's it, Lotus 1, 2, 3, things like that. 500 00:24:28.565 --> 00:24:30.510 So you've got to keep up. 501 00:24:31.205 --> 00:24:33.205 You cannot afford to slacken. 502 00:24:34.330 --> 00:24:37.924 And that applies to businesses at the low end of the market as well. 503 00:24:38.565 --> 00:24:42.065 It's not only at the high end where you're developing it and selling it. 504 00:24:42.486 --> 00:24:47.806 It's, it's, it's, it's, uh, So it's the, what do you call it, 505 00:24:47.906 --> 00:24:54.285 apparel companies, whether it's a Nike, whether it's Adidas, even going down to 506 00:24:54.285 --> 00:24:56.285 distributors, 507 00:24:56.285 --> 00:25:00.230 you've got to use the efficiencies of the software that's being created for you. 508 00:25:00.332 --> 00:25:04.847 So for me, and as Viv mentioned correctly, 509 00:25:04.910 --> 00:25:10.785 so I think the next few years is going to be the development of the hardware side of 510 00:25:10.785 --> 00:25:12.785 it, which we're talking about. 511 00:25:12.785 --> 00:25:14.785 That's why I brought up the semiconductors. 512 00:25:14.785 --> 00:25:17.377 And then eventually it will find other areas, you know, going down there, how to 513 00:25:17.377 --> 00:25:17.478 use it. 514 00:25:18.221 --> 00:25:19.620 I don't know the technical terms. 515 00:25:20.600 --> 00:25:22.604 You know, I don't know how to express these technical terms. 516 00:25:22.643 --> 00:25:26.088 But it will change, as we saw with the Internet. 517 00:25:26.104 --> 00:25:28.448 I think the one thing in our favor, we've got the Internet. 518 00:25:28.885 --> 00:25:30.776 Remember 20 years, we never had the Internet. 519 00:25:31.651 --> 00:25:34.291 So, you know, for me, I find it exciting. 520 00:25:34.557 --> 00:25:39.198 But that's why I can't get, you know, I can't be bothered about British American 521 00:25:39.198 --> 00:25:41.198 tobacco. 522 00:25:41.198 --> 00:25:41.776 You can't be bothered to diversify your portfolio. 523 00:25:42.887 --> 00:25:43.668 No, what do you call it? 524 00:25:43.708 --> 00:25:45.429 Those sacks that you put in your mouth. 525 00:25:45.529 --> 00:25:46.351 You know, I don't know. 526 00:25:46.371 --> 00:25:52.199 These things are taking off and everyone's getting excited about a nicotine sack or a 527 00:25:52.800 --> 00:25:54.058 blow-burning vaping. 528 00:25:54.175 --> 00:25:55.019 I don't know. 529 00:25:55.020 --> 00:25:55.816 I say, really? 530 00:25:55.817 --> 00:25:57.980 You know, this is what you want to invest in? 531 00:26:01.910 --> 00:26:07.003 Before you know it, David, you'll be buying a BYD and dumping your BMW made 532 00:26:07.003 --> 00:26:09.003 Mini Cooper. 533 00:26:09.003 --> 00:26:11.003 Yeah. 534 00:26:11.003 --> 00:26:13.003 Okay. 535 00:26:13.003 --> 00:26:15.003 Let's have a look at some markets now, gentlemen, because the round is quick. 536 00:26:15.003 --> 00:26:17.003 have to make. 537 00:26:17.003 --> 00:26:19.003 This is rather distressing. 538 00:26:19.003 --> 00:26:21.003 This is the other one. 539 00:26:21.003 --> 00:26:22.642 Brown Foreman, that is the maker of Jack Daniels, is down 16% 540 00:26:23.642 --> 00:26:26.618 today because people are not drinking anymore. 541 00:26:27.181 --> 00:26:28.298 That's the problem. 542 00:26:28.798 --> 00:26:35.204 So even a brand like Jack Daniels has seen a slowdown in organic growth. 543 00:26:35.720 --> 00:26:37.548 In other words, like for like is falling. 544 00:26:38.048 --> 00:26:44.983 And if you go through the other ones, you know, other famous ones like Diageo, 545 00:26:44.983 --> 00:26:46.983 Pernod Ricard, all of those are down as well. 546 00:26:46.983 --> 00:26:47.643 There's, you know, as people start to play... 547 00:26:47.644 --> 00:26:49.463 Young people are not going to the pub anymore. 548 00:26:49.686 --> 00:26:53.983 Pubs are closing left, right and centre in the UK and people are not going out and 549 00:26:53.983 --> 00:26:55.983 drinking anymore. 550 00:26:55.983 --> 00:26:57.983 It's not cool to drink anymore. 551 00:26:57.983 --> 00:27:01.350 You can't believe the queue for the Nintendo, the new place... 552 00:27:01.351 --> 00:27:02.051 I can. 553 00:27:02.709 --> 00:27:03.409 I can. 554 00:27:03.409 --> 00:27:09.913 I don't know what they call it because I'm not a games player, but the console, 555 00:27:09.913 --> 00:27:11.913 whatever it is, the new game, they're... 556 00:27:11.913 --> 00:27:16.793 been millions of people just lining up sitting on camp chairs you know outside 557 00:27:16.793 --> 00:27:18.793 the shops to get it so that's 558 00:27:18.793 --> 00:27:23.113 that's the mind of the youth today a little miswired if i if you know i don't 559 00:27:23.113 --> 00:27:25.113 know where their priorities are 560 00:27:25.113 --> 00:27:30.301 i know that um nintendo stock is at 32 so far this year so it's done it's done 561 00:27:30.301 --> 00:27:32.301 rather 562 00:27:32.301 --> 00:27:36.801 rather well viv i see you as a gamer sometimes Do you ever sit down behind your 563 00:27:36.801 --> 00:27:38.801 original Nintendo? 564 00:27:38.801 --> 00:27:40.824 I used to before I had obviously the wife and the kids. 565 00:27:40.825 --> 00:27:41.666 You can't do that now. 566 00:27:41.667 --> 00:27:44.670 You need to play games like games these days. 567 00:27:44.690 --> 00:27:48.154 You've got to be absorbed for hours sometimes and you just can't do that with 568 00:27:48.154 --> 00:27:48.175 kids. 569 00:27:48.175 --> 00:27:54.233 But I'm just mentioning around alcohol, but also any kind of sin product, alcohol, 570 00:27:54.233 --> 00:27:56.233 tobacco, whatever you want to talk about, 571 00:27:56.233 --> 00:27:56.514 Ozempic has a huge impact on that. 572 00:27:56.576 --> 00:28:02.342 There's real evidence that people that take Ozempic just have lower cravings for 573 00:28:02.342 --> 00:28:04.342 food, they have lower cravings for most of the sin products, 574 00:28:04.342 --> 00:28:06.342 including alcohol as well. 575 00:28:06.342 --> 00:28:07.248 So I think that is also something that people are underestimating. 576 00:28:07.558 --> 00:28:11.439 As it becomes a bigger and bigger part of like, you know, look at the number of 577 00:28:11.439 --> 00:28:13.439 overweight people in the world. 578 00:28:13.439 --> 00:28:15.439 And another thing to know about alcohol is this. 579 00:28:15.439 --> 00:28:17.439 It's one of those things. 580 00:28:17.439 --> 00:28:19.439 It's a power law. 581 00:28:19.439 --> 00:28:21.439 But the top 10 percent of drinkers consume the majority of the alcohol. 582 00:28:21.439 --> 00:28:23.119 You know, every day, most alcohol in total. 583 00:28:23.384 --> 00:28:27.728 When I was at university in London, they used to have something called the Circle 584 00:28:27.728 --> 00:28:29.728 Line Pub Call. 585 00:28:29.728 --> 00:28:33.119 In other words, there's there's a yellow tube line called the Circle Line because 586 00:28:33.119 --> 00:28:35.119 it goes around in a circle. 587 00:28:35.119 --> 00:28:35.369 Get a fair view when you go to a pub, have a drink. 588 00:28:35.666 --> 00:28:38.167 and then dash back onto the train and just keep going. 589 00:28:38.526 --> 00:28:43.586 They now have the Circle Line zero alcohol pub crawl. 590 00:28:43.747 --> 00:28:44.989 So you don't drink alcohol. 591 00:28:45.004 --> 00:28:49.106 You actually drink a zero beer or alcohol-free gin or whatever it is. 592 00:28:49.107 --> 00:28:52.231 And I thought to myself, what's going on with the youth of today? 593 00:28:52.387 --> 00:28:54.012 But no, it's to be applauded. 594 00:28:54.262 --> 00:28:58.543 I mean, for example, you just look at the cost it'll save for the National Health 595 00:28:58.543 --> 00:29:00.543 Service in the UK 596 00:29:00.543 --> 00:29:03.653 longer term with people not having their livers removed at huge costs. 597 00:29:03.654 --> 00:29:09.284 So It's generally a good thing, but if you're a Diageo shareholder, not so good. 598 00:29:09.523 --> 00:29:14.351 Right, enough of cars and alcohol and 340-page... 599 00:29:14.478 --> 00:29:16.459 reports on things I don't understand. 600 00:29:17.299 --> 00:29:18.699 That's why Viv is with us. 601 00:29:18.820 --> 00:29:19.617 One of the many reasons. 602 00:29:19.618 --> 00:29:24.277 1774 is the dollar round, which is a half a percent fall for the dollar. 603 00:29:24.738 --> 00:29:28.160 The British pound against the round is 2413, barely changed. 604 00:29:28.402 --> 00:29:34.090 The euro round is 2032, the euro down 0.2% against the mighty local currency. 605 00:29:34.168 --> 00:29:38.543 Euro dollar 11450, 0.3% up for the euro despite the 606 00:29:38.949 --> 00:29:43.840 ECB cutting rates again and the british pound is 136 on the nose which is a pound 607 00:29:44.166 --> 00:29:46.328 which is a third of a percent up against the greenback. 608 00:29:46.668 --> 00:29:51.652 Commodities, gold price, 13.65, up nearly a percent, or $31 an ounce. 609 00:29:51.715 --> 00:29:57.320 Platinum on my screen, David, 7.8% higher, $11.40 an ounce, 610 00:29:57.321 --> 00:29:59.703 or $82.50 an ounce. 611 00:29:59.719 --> 00:30:05.242 And palladium, a laggard, but still up, on the coattails of platinum, up one and a 612 00:30:05.242 --> 00:30:05.287 third percent, 613 00:30:05.523 --> 00:30:08.477 or $13.50 to $1,016. 614 00:30:08.478 --> 00:30:09.836 Watch that PGM basket. 615 00:30:09.867 --> 00:30:11.695 It warrants attention, I think. 616 00:30:11.727 --> 00:30:12.961 the S&P 500. 617 00:30:13.746 --> 00:30:14.848 You mentioned it earlier on. 618 00:30:15.228 --> 00:30:16.989 It's now up just over a third of a percent. 619 00:30:17.010 --> 00:30:18.469 It's broken through 6,000. 620 00:30:18.470 --> 00:30:20.493 The futures there is 6,003. 621 00:30:20.494 --> 00:30:21.516 I think they expire. 622 00:30:21.517 --> 00:30:24.735 I think we've got triple witching or something in a couple of weeks' time. 623 00:30:25.118 --> 00:30:28.500 Anyway, above 6,000, nearly 0.4% up now. 624 00:30:28.501 --> 00:30:29.201 The U.S. 625 00:30:29.201 --> 00:30:32.438 10-year Treasury bond yield is 438.5. 626 00:30:32.439 --> 00:30:33.907 Bond market's doing well globally. 627 00:30:34.344 --> 00:30:35.844 And what else have we got here? 628 00:30:36.313 --> 00:30:38.750 Bitcoin, 140. 629 00:30:38.751 --> 00:30:43.847 what is that 105 000 we'll call it down just uh slightly south african 10-year 630 00:30:43.847 --> 00:30:43.868 which we've already 631 00:30:43.906 --> 00:30:47.148 mentioned that's back above 10 now it did dip 632 00:30:47.211 --> 00:30:54.156 below there this morning 10.05 percent at the moment and what else have we got uh 633 00:30:54.156 --> 00:30:56.156 oil price which haven't given 634 00:30:56.156 --> 00:30:59.945 you uh brent crude oil is down again it's 64.55 please oh no 635 00:30:59.946 --> 00:31:05.945 65.57 thank you for refreshing she's up 1.1 and West Texas 636 00:31:05.961 --> 00:31:12.726 $63.64 up one and a quarter percent anything i'm missing there markets wise 637 00:31:12.726 --> 00:31:14.726 either of you two i 638 00:31:14.726 --> 00:31:15.589 don't think so other than their prices that you know 639 00:31:15.609 --> 00:31:22.499 some of the prices today oh yeah yeah the uh i'll go i'll go to that now um i've got 640 00:31:22.499 --> 00:31:24.499 on my screen here 641 00:31:24.499 --> 00:31:29.828 as i said dominated by diggers of white metals sebani still water 11 up valterra 642 00:31:29.828 --> 00:31:31.828 formerly the platinum 643 00:31:31.828 --> 00:31:36.687 producing wing of anglo-american up nearly nine percent northern's up six and a 644 00:31:36.687 --> 00:31:38.687 quarter implants five point four percent 645 00:31:38.687 --> 00:31:39.769 And Anglo, the parent, up 3.8%. 646 00:31:39.770 --> 00:31:45.956 Downside, what, Alphamind down 3.3%, Spar down 3.2% after its numbers this week, and 647 00:31:45.956 --> 00:31:47.956 Equitas down 648 00:31:47.956 --> 00:31:48.073 2.5%. Any others, David? 649 00:31:49.081 --> 00:31:50.300 No, those are most of them. 650 00:31:51.198 --> 00:31:53.261 Tungela has come under quite a bit of pressure. 651 00:31:53.262 --> 00:32:00.152 This was the stock of 2023, which has just fallen back on the fall of the coal price. 652 00:32:00.714 --> 00:32:01.414 Nothing else. 653 00:32:01.542 --> 00:32:05.511 Most of them, a couple of gold shares have just retreated slightly, and some 654 00:32:05.511 --> 00:32:07.511 retailers. 655 00:32:07.511 --> 00:32:12.768 but it's all platinum today but you know that's that's where the the big gains on 656 00:32:12.768 --> 00:32:14.768 the jsc were and and dict and 657 00:32:14.768 --> 00:32:18.733 dominating value as well um lindsay yeah you know just this value today 35 billion 658 00:32:19.475 --> 00:32:21.951 terror getting used to it you know made of 659 00:32:22.545 --> 00:32:29.358 27 today over the market yesterday it was 30 8.6 billion 660 00:32:29.404 --> 00:32:35.440 rand trading so a lot of activity around that and you know yesterday was down, 661 00:32:35.440 --> 00:32:37.440 today it's up. 662 00:32:37.440 --> 00:32:42.105 So obviously either institutions are coming in or their BlackRock users kind of 663 00:32:42.105 --> 00:32:42.486 put, 664 00:32:42.486 --> 00:32:44.488 you know, got the market going. 665 00:32:44.511 --> 00:32:45.792 That's a big story, it really is. 666 00:32:46.667 --> 00:32:53.355 Tonight, gentlemen, I will continue my sloth-like existence by watching Spain 667 00:32:53.355 --> 00:32:55.355 against France in 668 00:32:55.355 --> 00:32:57.355 international football. 669 00:32:57.355 --> 00:32:59.355 Yes, tonight. 670 00:32:59.355 --> 00:33:01.745 I want to see Laminia Mal, the 1 billion euro boy, see what he can do. 671 00:33:01.949 --> 00:33:02.730 But also Okay. 672 00:33:02.770 --> 00:33:08.077 I'm going to be watching Mertz and Trump because when he came up against a straight 673 00:33:08.077 --> 00:33:10.077 talker, i.e. 674 00:33:10.077 --> 00:33:12.343 the new Canadian leader, Mark Carney, he didn't fare as well. 675 00:33:12.421 --> 00:33:13.121 Trump, that is. 676 00:33:13.140 --> 00:33:19.929 And I think Mertz is an organized, disciplined, typical German, because 677 00:33:19.929 --> 00:33:21.929 that's I mean, 678 00:33:21.929 --> 00:33:23.929 that's a stupid thing to say these days. 679 00:33:23.929 --> 00:33:25.929 But he's a he's a straight talker. 680 00:33:25.929 --> 00:33:27.929 So I'm quite looking forward to that. 681 00:33:27.929 --> 00:33:29.929 Viv, will you be watching that one? 682 00:33:29.929 --> 00:33:30.163 Yeah, well, I mean, the thing is that if you look at the. 683 00:33:31.502 --> 00:33:38.442 the stuff that comes out of this year generally they are a bit more friendly 684 00:33:38.442 --> 00:33:40.442 than what trump says you know uh when these guys are not in the room and i think 685 00:33:40.442 --> 00:33:42.442 that's 686 00:33:42.442 --> 00:33:45.364 going to be the case again this time around i think the examples where he 687 00:33:45.364 --> 00:33:47.364 doesn't do this is but places that are no power like ukraine and south africa that's 688 00:33:47.364 --> 00:33:49.364 what he 689 00:33:49.364 --> 00:33:52.333 tries to pull these crazy things look if he comes across an intellectual uh man 690 00:33:52.333 --> 00:33:54.333 who's articulate you know he falls apart 691 00:33:54.333 --> 00:33:59.301 because he can't match them as we saw with carney and i would imagine the same will 692 00:33:59.301 --> 00:34:01.301 happen with the german chancellor 693 00:34:01.301 --> 00:34:03.301 Good. 694 00:34:03.301 --> 00:34:05.301 I hope so. 695 00:34:05.301 --> 00:34:07.301 Thank you very much for your time, as always, David. 696 00:34:07.301 --> 00:34:09.301 Bon voyage on Saturday. 697 00:34:09.301 --> 00:34:11.301 If you can fit us in, that would be great. 698 00:34:11.301 --> 00:34:13.301 If not, we'll speak to you in a couple of weeks' time. 699 00:34:13.301 --> 00:34:15.301 David Shapiro is from Sessom Securities. 700 00:34:15.301 --> 00:34:17.301 I hate to be drinking that non-alcoholic beer. 701 00:34:17.301 --> 00:34:19.301 Terrible prospect. 702 00:34:19.301 --> 00:34:21.301 David is from Sessom Securities. 703 00:34:21.301 --> 00:34:23.301 Viv Govender is from Ransuisse. 704 00:34:23.301 --> 00:34:25.301 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 705 00:34:25.301 --> 00:34:27.778 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 706 00:34:27.778 --> 00:34:29.778 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 707 00:34:29.778 --> 00:34:31.520 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 708 00:34:31.840 --> 00:34:36.489 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 709 00:34:36.942 --> 00:34:43.942 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 710 00:34:43.942 --> 00:34:45.942 entity other than the speaker or the author. 711 00:34:45.942 --> 00:34:50.379 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 712 00:34:50.379 --> 00:34:52.379 change, revision, and revision. 713 00:34:52.379 --> 00:34:54.379 and rethinking at any time. 714 00:34:54.379 --> 00:34:54.950 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.