WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as it's a Thursday, it's the
doubleheader Dream Team edition of the 5

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o'clock shadow with Viv Govender from
Rands, Swiss and Johannesburg,

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and David Shapiro around the corner at
Mirawares Arch at Sassfin Security.

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David, can we start with you, please, on
South African Reserve Bank?

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We don't need to do too much because we
know they were going to cut, but what were

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the details?

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I think the main...

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The governor felt comfortable because the
RAND had benefited from the weaker dollar

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and

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was a lot stronger than the last time they
met.

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I think there was a big fear that the RAND
would weaken.

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Nobody could read the currencies and no
one could read the sell America view.

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So I think that gave him encouragement,
plus the general trend here in inflation

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as well.

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So we reduced rates by 25 points.

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I think everybody.

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had built this in.

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I think this was largely expected, but
five of the governors, I think, voted in

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favor, one against,

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who wanted a slightly bigger cut.

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So to a large extent, it's in the market.

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I think the RAND is $17.80 at the moment,
$17.79, but I think that's more from a

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weaker dollar,

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which is now responding to the GDP number
that came out of the US and also now

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opening

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views that...

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or raising views, you know, that the Fed's
going to cut as well.

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So this just makes it easier for them to
cut with inflation coming down or the

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trend in inflation down.

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The PCE was slightly hit and then the
market expected.

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So who knows?

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To try and actually join the dots can be
very difficult sometimes.

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Okay, we'll come to the US in a moment.

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Well, the economic side of the United
States.

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Well, let's get to the corporate side.

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NVIDIA, please, Viv.

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Great set of numbers.

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I think a 73% increase in revenue.

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A little bit of a problem with China, but
I noticed one of the big banks immediately

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came out and raised their

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share price forecast.

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What did you make of the numbers, Viv?

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The numbers aren't actually spectacularly
good.

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For normal companies, they are, but
obviously NVIDIA has a lot of built-in

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expectations here.

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So that wasn't quite that great.

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uh you know tools but the thing that
really was the thing was i think the story

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they were saying around it the fact that
demand was so so strong

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yes you mentioned china they're losing
money on china but i don't know if you saw

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uh today with trump's uh tariffs being
reversed and

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uh

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yes it's uh trump always uh chickens out
yes yes taco but robert armstrong of the

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uh

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financial times yeah he coined that taco
you know trump always chickens out He

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hates it.

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He does, he does.

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But so I think that indicates that there's
a possibility that they're going to

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recover some of those things with regards
to

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China as well.

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AI demand is still sky high, and I think
that's what's pushing this stuff through.

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Like I said, the actual numbers are not
great.

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Okay, but what would you do?

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I mean, people are raising their share
forecasts.

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You stick with it or do you buy more VIV
or do you actually lighten your load a

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bit?

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Look, I mean, I have NVIDIA.

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I always have.

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You guys know I have that AI portfolio.

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The things that I always have had there is
NVIDIA.

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I've always had Tesla. I've always had,
you know, Meta.

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The big companies, I've had Palantir
almost since the start as well.

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I've recently bought like CloudStrike and
that kind of thing.

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these companies i mean they are the the
effective backbone of the ai that's called

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uh you know um revolution and you

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can't not have it with you in your
portfolio unfortunately uh and yeah i mean

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all the other stuff as well i mean asmr
was up today i think it's come down

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since then but uh you've seen all the
other tech companies as well uh all the

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chip related

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companies basically do quite well as used
as well okay david so you're over to you

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on the video yeah You're the same, I
suppose.

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I'm the same.

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No, I'm very bullish.

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The more you listen to Jensen Wang, I can
never pronounce it properly,

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but the more you listen to what's
happening in the industry, the more you

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realize that this rollout,

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whatever word you want to use, the
infrastructural development is going to go

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on for another three, four years.

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Yes, this early phase is the hardware side
of it.

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I'm calling the bricks and mortar,
building the data centers, getting the

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right kind of…

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infrastructure in technical in technology
and and after that comes the you know the

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next phase as well

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so it's like the internet you know you had
to build the internet for companies to use

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it and i you know the more i hear

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analysts the more i hear people like like
jensen wang talk the more I'm encouraged.

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And I think it's still the biggest driver.

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What I like about it is it's taken all the
attention away from Trump.

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You know, we once again, I'm saying, you
know, once again, looking at companies,

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looking at industries, you know,

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looking at where this is going rather than
worrying about and having

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Trump at the center of attraction and just
making us annoyed.

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You know, this is, I'm so glad this is
happening.

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And, you know, we're back to kind of
almost like fundamentals.

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Well, yeah, short term we are, David.

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But on the other hand, I'm slightly
worried that things have gone awry.

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I mean, it's great that this international
trade court in New York with three judges

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have said, what are you talking about?

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You can't actually do this.

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But on the other hand, what about the
businesses?

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What about the businesses that one minute
are going to pay 50 percent for European

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import?

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The next day it'll be lower and it'll be
later.

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And now none of the trade tariffs are
going to go through.

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after the appeal by the Trump
administration.

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It's chaos, David.

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Sorry, Viv, I'll come to you in a second
on this one.

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But it's really getting annoying now,
isn't it?

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I mean, it's always been annoying, but
it's more annoying now.

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But I think the markets have discounted
all of this.

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They've just moved ahead, you know, and
they say, yeah, we know it's going to

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happen.

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The effects are not going to be too bad.

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Look, Trump can still oppose individual
tariffs, like on steel or on something.

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He can't do it in a blanket way or just
say, we're going to put 20% tariffs on.

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you know, the EU.

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It's got to be more specific.

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I think that's what the ruling is.

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So they'll find a way.

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He's not a person who's scared by the law.

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You know, him and his advisors, you know,
that's, I don't think, you know,

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they're going to stand down.

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They'll find something else to do and so
it'll go.

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But I mean, it has been a bit of a blow
for him, regardless that the courts have,

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you know,

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he's still going to go to the Supreme
Court where I think the bias is towards

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him.

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But nevertheless, I think I'm glad that
the courts are standing up to him and

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telling him that if you want to

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do anything like this, it's got to go
through Congress.

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It's got to go through the right kind of
procedures.

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But we're getting bored of it, Lindsay.

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Six months seems like six years with this
fellow.

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Are you bored with it, Viv, or do you just
blot it out in your special way?

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I don't know if this is actually in long
term against Trump's favor, because...

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Remember that dinner you had recently
where the guys that bought his meme coin

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get to have dinner with Trump?

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This is just going to mean that he's going
to have more ability to pick and choose

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who gets tariffs and who doesn't get
tariffs,

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which is going to be giving more power and
therefore more chance for corruption.

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That's all this is going to mean down the
line, because now it's going to be every

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single industry has to go individually and
say,

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buys deep yeah buys deep coin the next to
his library you know

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by a new conference at the Trump Center or
whatever it's called here, Trump Towers

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and whatnot.

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That is what this is about.

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You know what I mean?

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We mustn't think of it as like, oh, Trump
has some philosophy about how the world

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should be.

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Some of the people under him have a
philosophy like that.

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I mean, Stephen Muller definitely hates
immigrants.

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J.D.

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Vance has a philosophy about, you know,
white working-class workers and stuff

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here.

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But Trump...

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wants to get rich and this is just going
to give him more opportunity because now

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you can not say europe what's europe going
to do you could bribe him directly like a

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title but you know siemens might just you
know it was uh there may be companies in

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europe particularly that might give him

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a couple of things here today yeah that's
best in the future yeah okay

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um let's get back to reality david quickly
i mean we we look occasionally at south

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african companies listed companies that
come out with their numbers

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on the trading updates all results spa
adcorp lewis adcorp we spoke about the

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other day david and it was

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up on the trading update up another seven
percent today

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on the actual numbers lewis's uh retailer
obviously but in a specific field up six

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percent and spa we all know about spa

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what it does down three and three quarters
percent any of those that you looked at

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and said wait a second there's a flashing
lights here good or bad

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to be honest i haven't gone into great
detail you know spa we know has been under

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pressure they're talking now about selling
the swiss

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operation which I don't know why they were
there in the first place.

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They really are kind of backtracking on
all their overseas expansions.

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And at the end of the day, they're going
to end up in Nelsprate or in KZN,

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wherever they used to be, or Joburg, so
on.

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It's sad because fundamentally it's a
buying organization.

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It's a very, very good business, but come
under a lot of pressures for many reasons,

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including…

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uh technology um lewis great little
business it's been around this was gus

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remember great universal

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schools you might know that in the uk and
they've always been a very super you know

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very good business

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they know what they do they had a few
issues when they were overcharging on

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insurance and other things like that but
that's how they make money they

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don't sell furniture they sell

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It's a financial company where the vehicle
is selling a dining room table or a bed.

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Because when you buy that on HP or
whatever they call it on Terms today, you

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have to take out insurance.

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You have to cover yourself in case you
don't make those payments.

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And that's where the margins are.

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But it's a good business.

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So you go in and buy a sofa and at the
side there's a kiosk where you say, right,

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you like that sofa?

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Sign here.

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Yeah.

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And, you know, people who buy on HP say,
how much can I afford?

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200 rand a month.

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What fridge can I get for 200 rand a
month?

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We'll take it.

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You know, and the margins are astronomical
when you actually break down what these

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people pay, you know,

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in terms of the interest rate.

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It's massive.

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But, you know, that's capitalism.

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But Lewis is a good business.

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Got a lot of good stores and been around
for a long time.

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Okay, good.

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Some good news.

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Right, let's have a look at the markets
now.

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You mentioned the rand, David.

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1778 is the dollar rand, which is a 1.3%
fall for the US dollar.

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British pound against the rand is 2398.

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And the euro rand is, where is that euro
rand?

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2619 now.

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Look at that, 2619.

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So what am I talking about?

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No, I'm looking at the 2019.

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Excuse me.

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These pharmacies' reading glasses really
are quite poor.

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20.19 the euro round, in case anyone just
fell off their chair.

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Euro-dollar won 13.60.

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That's a 1.05% rally for the euro against
the dollar because of what David said,

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00:11:47.690 --> 00:11:49.690
economic data coming out of the US GDP.

235
00:11:49.690 --> 00:11:51.690
What was the exact number, David?

236
00:11:51.690 --> 00:11:53.690
Do you remember?

237
00:11:53.690 --> 00:11:55.690
For the GDP.

238
00:11:55.690 --> 00:11:57.690
Oh, um...

239
00:11:57.690 --> 00:11:58.216
Where are you?

240
00:11:58.217 --> 00:11:58.917
Yes.

241
00:11:58.917 --> 00:11:59.037
Minus 0.2.

242
00:11:59.038 --> 00:11:59.738
Minus 0.2.

243
00:11:59.738 --> 00:12:00.118
Okay.

244
00:12:00.278 --> 00:12:00.978
There you go.

245
00:12:00.978 --> 00:12:01.599
That explains it.

246
00:12:01.959 --> 00:12:04.221
British pound, 134.90.

247
00:12:04.222 --> 00:12:04.922
Commodities now.

248
00:12:04.922 --> 00:12:09.405
The gold price is up $20 on that weaker
dollar, 33.17.

249
00:12:09.406 --> 00:12:12.467
The platinum price is barely changed at
$10.84 an ounce.

250
00:12:12.468 --> 00:12:16.070
And palladium is up 8 to 9.91.

251
00:12:16.150 --> 00:12:17.371
Now, other commodities.

252
00:12:17.591 --> 00:12:21.855
The oil price has, yeah, it's been quite
an influence.

253
00:12:21.895 --> 00:12:23.556
OPEC meeting in Vienna, of course.

254
00:12:23.656 --> 00:12:29.438
and um Oil price now 1.2% weaker for Brent
crude, $64.13.

255
00:12:30.318 --> 00:12:34.038
Had a little bit of a flurry this morning
after the tariff story and then came back

256
00:12:34.038 --> 00:12:34.118
down again.

257
00:12:34.478 --> 00:12:38.578
And West Texas crude, $60.93, down 1.5%.

258
00:12:38.579 --> 00:12:41.038
Natural gas prices down 3.2% as well.

259
00:12:41.138 --> 00:12:45.398
All this having a negative effect on the
overall index, the CRB that is.

260
00:12:46.218 --> 00:12:49.098
S&P 500 futures were over a percent high.

261
00:12:49.099 --> 00:12:51.478
A knee-jerk reaction again to the tariff
story.

262
00:12:51.878 --> 00:12:54.158
now only up about a third of a percent.

263
00:12:54.446 --> 00:12:57.048
5,924.

264
00:12:57.049 --> 00:12:57.749
U.S.

265
00:12:57.749 --> 00:12:57.829
10-year treasury.

266
00:12:59.390 --> 00:13:03.093
Yeah, 4.44% expectations of a Fed rate
cut.

267
00:13:03.113 --> 00:13:05.355
And the Fed minutes are being read out at
the moment, actually.

268
00:13:05.435 --> 00:13:07.176
People going through it line by line.

269
00:13:07.416 --> 00:13:09.638
But anyway, 4.44% for the U.S.

270
00:13:09.938 --> 00:13:10.638
10-year.

271
00:13:11.599 --> 00:13:16.864
South African 10-year has been firm,
obviously, with the good inflation data.

272
00:13:16.884 --> 00:13:19.085
And very firm today after the interest
rate cut.

273
00:13:19.105 --> 00:13:22.408
10.17% for the South African 10-year.

274
00:13:22.966 --> 00:13:26.048
And Bitcoin, which has been in the news,
I'm going to ask Viv about this in a

275
00:13:26.048 --> 00:13:26.389
moment.

276
00:13:26.389 --> 00:13:26.749
So get ready, Viv.

277
00:13:26.750 --> 00:13:32.654
$107,538.10 for one Bitcoin.

278
00:13:33.034 --> 00:13:39.719
And the other day, two days ago, they said
that Trump was going to raise $2 billion

279
00:13:39.719 --> 00:13:41.719
via Truth Social in order to buy Bitcoin.

280
00:13:41.719 --> 00:13:43.402
It's not as if they're being very subtle
about telling you what they're going to

281
00:13:43.402 --> 00:13:43.483
do, are they?

282
00:13:43.483 --> 00:13:47.205
And I think that's the reason why over the
weekend it went to $112,000.

283
00:13:47.206 --> 00:13:48.046
Viv, what do you make of it?

284
00:13:49.647 --> 00:13:52.109
I mean, the Bitcoin thing is crazy because
I...

285
00:13:52.206 --> 00:13:55.569
Look, I mean, the biggest competitor to
the Bitcoin in the world is the U.S.

286
00:13:55.589 --> 00:13:56.289
dollar.

287
00:13:56.289 --> 00:13:59.011
You know, it's the alternative reserve
currency in the world.

288
00:13:59.111 --> 00:14:00.252
The idea that the U.S.

289
00:14:00.753 --> 00:14:02.794
government, you know, if you look at it
from clearly a U.S.

290
00:14:02.854 --> 00:14:05.436
point of view, you don't want Bitcoin to
succeed in any kind of way.

291
00:14:05.757 --> 00:14:09.540
You don't want it to be the reserve
currency of the world or something that's,

292
00:14:09.540 --> 00:14:11.540
you know, competitive to the U.S.

293
00:14:11.540 --> 00:14:13.540
dollar.

294
00:14:13.540 --> 00:14:15.544
And, you know, for a country like the
U.S., what does Bitcoin do for you except

295
00:14:15.544 --> 00:14:17.544
be competitive currency and allow for
people

296
00:14:17.544 --> 00:14:19.507
to do transactions that are away from your
financial services, you know,

297
00:14:19.507 --> 00:14:21.507
infrastructure?

298
00:14:21.507 --> 00:14:22.780
So, yeah, it is a thing that you would not
expect the U.S.

299
00:14:22.820 --> 00:14:23.841
president to want to be supporting.

300
00:14:24.241 --> 00:14:24.941
No, exactly.

301
00:14:27.224 --> 00:14:28.865
They were the people who put him in power.

302
00:14:29.265 --> 00:14:31.927
You know, they made large donations.

303
00:14:31.987 --> 00:14:33.208
He's got his payback time.

304
00:14:33.769 --> 00:14:36.511
His family are making an absolute fortune.

305
00:14:36.651 --> 00:14:37.992
Did you see those two boys?

306
00:14:37.993 --> 00:14:38.933
His son, Eric Trunk.

307
00:14:39.473 --> 00:14:41.955
Did you see them in Las Vegas sitting
there laughing their heads off?

308
00:14:41.995 --> 00:14:42.916
I mean, so smug.

309
00:14:42.917 --> 00:14:43.857
He wanted to slap them.

310
00:14:44.117 --> 00:14:44.817
Yeah, horrible.

311
00:14:46.994 --> 00:14:49.636
I don't know where your dad's a president
of the United States.

312
00:14:49.696 --> 00:14:50.396
Take a low key.

313
00:14:50.397 --> 00:14:56.301
You know, go back in the office, do the
books of account, balance the cash book,

314
00:14:56.301 --> 00:14:58.301
you know, that kind of thing.

315
00:14:58.301 --> 00:14:59.504
And they're taking full advantage of their
name.

316
00:14:59.564 --> 00:15:05.989
And obviously people are going to suck up
to them simply because this might create a

317
00:15:05.989 --> 00:15:06.110
connection.

318
00:15:06.110 --> 00:15:08.051
You know, it's not that they don't talk to
their dad.

319
00:15:08.511 --> 00:15:13.955
You know, I'm absolutely sure that they're
private conversations about what's

320
00:15:13.955 --> 00:15:14.035
happening.

321
00:15:15.174 --> 00:15:20.958
I just cannot believe that USA 2025 is in
this kind of situation.

322
00:15:21.178 --> 00:15:24.721
You know, maybe in the early days, in
fact, quite the opposite.

323
00:15:24.781 --> 00:15:30.826
But I mean, in the early days, you know,
you might have got away with this or early

324
00:15:30.826 --> 00:15:32.826
development of a company.

325
00:15:32.826 --> 00:15:34.609
But that, you know,

326
00:15:34.909 --> 00:15:41.554
that this happens in this kind of day
where there's so much emphasis on

327
00:15:41.554 --> 00:15:43.554
corporate governance and doing the right
thing.

328
00:15:43.554 --> 00:15:45.554
This is just flouts.

329
00:15:47.905 --> 00:15:48.605
It just breaks every rule.

330
00:15:48.605 --> 00:15:49.146
No one cares.

331
00:15:49.146 --> 00:15:49.567
No one even talks up.

332
00:15:49.567 --> 00:15:50.107
They're too scared to, you see.

333
00:15:50.108 --> 00:15:54.230
It's very interesting with Trump, because
in 2018,

334
00:15:54.231 --> 00:15:58.873
I went back through his Bitcoin
utterances, and he said it's a scam.

335
00:15:59.374 --> 00:16:00.755
He says he doesn't really understand.

336
00:16:00.756 --> 00:16:02.776
He admitted that he didn't.

337
00:16:03.197 --> 00:16:06.880
And he said, but it seems to me, he says,
like, this is one big scam.

338
00:16:06.900 --> 00:16:08.521
And that was 2018.

339
00:16:09.041 --> 00:16:11.423
Now, suddenly, of course, it's exactly the
opposite.

340
00:16:11.443 --> 00:16:12.143
But it is.

341
00:16:12.261 --> 00:16:15.781
a very, very strange situation that we're
faced with.

342
00:16:16.461 --> 00:16:18.821
And the other thing is the two weeks with
Putin as well.

343
00:16:20.001 --> 00:16:21.141
Two weeks with Putin.

344
00:16:22.761 --> 00:16:29.761
I looked that up, Viv, the two-week quote,
and he's, I think on about 32 occasions,

345
00:16:29.761 --> 00:16:31.761
he said,

346
00:16:31.761 --> 00:16:32.201
well, you better watch this because we're
going to do this in two weeks.

347
00:16:32.261 --> 00:16:34.961
Not referencing Putin, but any other
thing.

348
00:16:35.001 --> 00:16:41.101
That's his thing, he says, in two weeks,
in two to three weeks, in two weeks, in a

349
00:16:41.101 --> 00:16:43.101
fortnight, in a couple of weeks' time, he
goes on.

350
00:16:43.101 --> 00:16:47.673
And on CBS, yes, it was 32 times he said
it since his various presidencies.

351
00:16:47.693 --> 00:16:50.233
It's extraordinary what this man is up to.

352
00:16:50.593 --> 00:16:53.273
OK, David, what have you got on the
upside?

353
00:16:53.673 --> 00:17:00.193
What have you got on the upside
share-wise, both here and rather in South

354
00:17:00.193 --> 00:17:02.193
Africa and in the United States or Europe?

355
00:17:02.193 --> 00:17:07.473
Well, obviously, the reduction in interest
rates here kicked up some of the property

356
00:17:07.473 --> 00:17:09.473
trusts.

357
00:17:09.473 --> 00:17:09.533
They were up quite strongly now.

358
00:17:10.906 --> 00:17:14.368
and also some of the retailers, so
ShopRite, Redefine.

359
00:17:15.489 --> 00:17:19.212
I don't know why Life Health Care and
NetCare were up today, but all mutual as

360
00:17:19.212 --> 00:17:19.592
well,

361
00:17:19.592 --> 00:17:23.275
all benefiting from perhaps the trend in
interest rates here.

362
00:17:24.276 --> 00:17:29.560
On the other hand, SPAR was down on those
awful trading updates, just problems still

363
00:17:29.560 --> 00:17:29.900
there.

364
00:17:29.900 --> 00:17:31.642
And some of the golds came down as well.

365
00:17:32.242 --> 00:17:38.707
But, Lindsay, Stronger Air also took a bit
of an edge off our market, but still it

366
00:17:38.707 --> 00:17:40.707
ended up just under 1%.

367
00:17:40.707 --> 00:17:45.734
percent point nine one percent at nine
four seven two six with gains generally

368
00:17:45.734 --> 00:17:47.734
across the board nothing nothing

369
00:17:47.734 --> 00:17:52.780
huge but uh still steady gains in a uh
widely across the board yeah i've got my

370
00:17:52.780 --> 00:17:54.780
top five on

371
00:17:54.780 --> 00:17:58.124
the jse shop right up nearly four percent
redefine up 3.6 percent kumba

372
00:17:58.264 --> 00:18:03.949
iron or up three and a half percent life
health care 3.4 percent better and net

373
00:18:03.949 --> 00:18:05.949
care up

374
00:18:05.949 --> 00:18:11.151
3.4 percent as well on the downside spa
SPAR down 3.9%,

375
00:18:11.272 --> 00:18:15.595
PHPROP down 3.4%, and rats and mice
elsewhere.

376
00:18:16.015 --> 00:18:22.801
So, yeah, generally an okay day,
particularly the retailers looking quite

377
00:18:22.801 --> 00:18:24.801
good, apart from SPAR,

378
00:18:24.801 --> 00:18:26.801
that is.

379
00:18:26.801 --> 00:18:28.801
What are we looking forward to?

380
00:18:28.801 --> 00:18:30.801
Viv, you've still got two days to sell in
May.

381
00:18:30.801 --> 00:18:31.447
Will you be selling in May, or will you be
loading up?

382
00:18:33.369 --> 00:18:35.611
I'm still pretty optimistic about the US
market.

383
00:18:35.631 --> 00:18:37.905
I mean, But crazily enough, we were just
chatting about it.

384
00:18:37.985 --> 00:18:41.705
We had a prediction kind of thing at the
start of the year, like we normally do.

385
00:18:42.185 --> 00:18:44.505
And we predicted two things.

386
00:18:44.525 --> 00:18:49.465
I predicted the market would fall 20% by
the time we get the prediction and the

387
00:18:49.465 --> 00:18:51.465
market would end up positive for the year.

388
00:18:51.465 --> 00:18:53.865
And right now, both seem to be coming
true.

389
00:18:54.705 --> 00:18:56.985
It's remarkable just how things have been.

390
00:18:57.005 --> 00:19:00.345
And any kind of pattern you've seen in the
past, I expect you to continue going

391
00:19:00.345 --> 00:19:00.505
forward.

392
00:19:00.745 --> 00:19:03.625
I mean, had you basically been out of this
market this month,

393
00:19:04.193 --> 00:19:11.179
uh you know the sb 500 you would have lost
six and a half percent this was not a

394
00:19:11.179 --> 00:19:13.179
study may month yeah okay so

395
00:19:13.179 --> 00:19:17.624
we share the business as usual despite um
the um extraordinary eccentricities of

396
00:19:17.624 --> 00:19:19.624
people in charge okay

397
00:19:19.624 --> 00:19:20.926
gentlemen david you want to say something
no

398
00:19:20.946 --> 00:19:27.231
i'm just happy with where the market is
i'm looking at nvidia now at 142 or just

399
00:19:27.231 --> 00:19:29.231
under now

400
00:19:29.231 --> 00:19:33.585
and uh having been almost i don't know
Viv, how much was it down for after

401
00:19:33.585 --> 00:19:35.585
Liberation Day?

402
00:19:35.585 --> 00:19:39.365
But it's up 5.5%, 6% now on the year,
having recovered the full loss.

403
00:19:41.245 --> 00:19:43.425
I think it was down at 96% at one stage.

404
00:19:46.365 --> 00:19:47.485
That, for me, is a story.

405
00:19:47.545 --> 00:19:49.625
And I think all across the tech board.

406
00:19:50.185 --> 00:19:56.085
You know, Viv and Lindsay, I'm moving
towards a view saying, you know,

407
00:19:56.605 --> 00:19:58.405
this whole diversification story.

408
00:19:59.022 --> 00:19:59.843
I'm not buying it.

409
00:19:59.923 --> 00:20:02.345
I just want to buy 10 steps of wealth.

410
00:20:02.445 --> 00:20:03.546
That's it.

411
00:20:03.547 --> 00:20:04.247
Really?

412
00:20:04.247 --> 00:20:08.770
Because all the compliance people and
everybody pressure on you, oh,

413
00:20:08.910 --> 00:20:11.111
you can't have too much of this or you
can't have this.

414
00:20:11.452 --> 00:20:12.833
You've got to spread your portfolio.

415
00:20:12.913 --> 00:20:14.995
It's got to be balanced, blah, blah.

416
00:20:14.996 --> 00:20:15.815
I say, what the hell?

417
00:20:17.156 --> 00:20:22.200
If I look at where I've made money or
where my clients have made money, it comes

418
00:20:22.200 --> 00:20:24.200
down to about a half a dozen stocks.

419
00:20:24.200 --> 00:20:26.200
The rest are nonsense.

420
00:20:26.200 --> 00:20:28.200
But it's not just the stocks, Dave.

421
00:20:28.200 --> 00:20:28.365
It's not so much you've got six or eight
or 12, whatever it is.

422
00:20:28.654 --> 00:20:29.775
It's the sectors they're in.

423
00:20:30.035 --> 00:20:30.735
That's the point.

424
00:20:30.735 --> 00:20:35.640
I mean, I speak to financial advisors and
wealth managers and portfolio managers all

425
00:20:35.640 --> 00:20:37.640
the time, as you know,

426
00:20:37.640 --> 00:20:40.143
and they'll be horrified to hear what you
just said about diversification.

427
00:20:41.024 --> 00:20:41.724
I know.

428
00:20:42.185 --> 00:20:43.005
That's what I'm saying.

429
00:20:43.466 --> 00:20:49.851
The more I look at it, you know, in fact,
I think it was Charlie Munger who actually

430
00:20:49.851 --> 00:20:51.851
admitted, he said, you know,

431
00:20:51.851 --> 00:20:55.075
if you look at Berkshire Hathaway, it's
only a handful of shares that are made

432
00:20:55.075 --> 00:20:55.235
there.

433
00:20:56.135 --> 00:20:56.995
made their profits.

434
00:20:57.336 --> 00:20:58.937
Most of the other stuff has done nothing.

435
00:20:59.938 --> 00:21:02.580
And he's quite honest about it.

436
00:21:02.640 --> 00:21:04.601
I'm going to find the quote and write
something around it.

437
00:21:04.602 --> 00:21:10.226
You find it, and we'll get Viv on this one
as well, because Viv, you're also not the

438
00:21:10.226 --> 00:21:12.226
first of the case.

439
00:21:12.226 --> 00:21:13.488
I mean, Viv likes to...

440
00:21:13.489 --> 00:21:14.189
No, you can't.

441
00:21:14.189 --> 00:21:14.529
No, I don't.

442
00:21:14.749 --> 00:21:16.210
It's in our portfolio.

443
00:21:16.471 --> 00:21:18.052
No, please.

444
00:21:18.053 --> 00:21:19.813
I think there's two kinds of periods in
history.

445
00:21:19.953 --> 00:21:24.777
One is when there's normal markets, and
one is when there's a technological shift

446
00:21:24.777 --> 00:21:26.777
or a paradigm shift happening.

447
00:21:26.777 --> 00:21:27.560
The tech, the internet revolution was one
of those.

448
00:21:28.301 --> 00:21:30.322
This AI revolution is another one.

449
00:21:30.822 --> 00:21:32.164
Computers were back in the day, another
one.

450
00:21:32.464 --> 00:21:38.028
When this happens, what you do is you buy
a selection of the stuff that you think is

451
00:21:38.028 --> 00:21:40.028
going to be going up and then you'd never
ever sell them.

452
00:21:40.028 --> 00:21:42.028
That's the thing.

453
00:21:42.028 --> 00:21:44.028
You can't rebalance.

454
00:21:44.028 --> 00:21:45.974
Like I'm, I have guys thinking about my AI
portfolio that I'm approaching 20% on some

455
00:21:45.974 --> 00:21:45.994
stocks here,

456
00:21:46.935 --> 00:21:49.357
which I bought at high interest.

457
00:21:50.958 --> 00:21:53.460
I mean, the whole portfolio is high as
well.

458
00:21:53.998 --> 00:21:59.803
The reason that we're holding on to them
is that if you go back and look at, for

459
00:21:59.803 --> 00:22:01.803
instance, what would you have done to make
the most money when the internet

460
00:22:01.803 --> 00:22:03.803
revolution happened?

461
00:22:03.803 --> 00:22:05.803
You bought some Google, some Amazon, and
some price.com.

462
00:22:05.803 --> 00:22:07.803
The price.com went to zero.

463
00:22:07.803 --> 00:22:09.090
You'd be damned to sell your Amazon and
Google to buy more price.com.

464
00:22:09.430 --> 00:22:11.212
You would rather just buy and hold.

465
00:22:11.512 --> 00:22:16.396
And as Amazon goes up a thousand times, as
Google goes up like hundreds of times,

466
00:22:16.396 --> 00:22:18.396
that's the way you do it.

467
00:22:18.396 --> 00:22:22.160
And when these markets mature, who knows
when the AI things mature.

468
00:22:22.698 --> 00:22:24.259
Then you diversify out of it.

469
00:22:24.660 --> 00:22:28.222
But while it's going up, you never, ever
diversify out of a rising.

470
00:22:28.563 --> 00:22:31.625
It's the biggest mistake.

471
00:22:31.626 --> 00:22:33.787
I shout and scream at people all the time.

472
00:22:34.307 --> 00:22:37.750
You know, oh, we got 4.36% in NVIDIA.

473
00:22:37.850 --> 00:22:42.013
Let's take it down to 2.98%.

474
00:22:42.053 --> 00:22:42.874
It's ridiculous.

475
00:22:42.974 --> 00:22:43.674
Anyway.

476
00:22:43.674 --> 00:22:49.239
It might be quite fun to get a traditional
old school fund manager because you two

477
00:22:49.239 --> 00:22:51.239
obviously embraced.

478
00:22:51.239 --> 00:22:53.097
embrace modern portfolio construction
versus the old way.

479
00:22:53.357 --> 00:22:55.359
And just a little bit of a discussion.

480
00:22:55.479 --> 00:23:01.463
The thing is that they've got a Bible, and
they start to read the Bible from the

481
00:23:01.463 --> 00:23:03.463
first page of that.

482
00:23:03.463 --> 00:23:05.463
We stuffed them.

483
00:23:06.067 --> 00:23:09.670
You know, they've got everything written
down, and this is it.

484
00:23:10.931 --> 00:23:14.313
So I'm saying, okay, I'm a bit agnostic on
that.

485
00:23:14.314 --> 00:23:15.414
You know, what's the word?

486
00:23:16.295 --> 00:23:17.036
No, you're quite right.

487
00:23:17.296 --> 00:23:18.156
Okay, that's really interesting.

488
00:23:18.176 --> 00:23:19.197
You're giving me some ideas.

489
00:23:21.412 --> 00:23:22.893
I have to write something about it.

490
00:23:22.894 --> 00:23:26.175
I mean, I have to get my arguments clear.

491
00:23:26.315 --> 00:23:28.037
I can't just go up on that.

492
00:23:28.657 --> 00:23:31.299
But I'm going to find Charlie Munger as my
base.

493
00:23:32.140 --> 00:23:32.840
Just look at history.

494
00:23:32.840 --> 00:23:33.500
Just look at history.

495
00:23:34.001 --> 00:23:39.366
When you had a technological revolution
like this happening, and this is the

496
00:23:39.366 --> 00:23:41.366
biggest one in our lifetimes, bigger than
the internet.

497
00:23:41.366 --> 00:23:45.450
When the internet revolution happened, and
you would have bought a selection of

498
00:23:45.450 --> 00:23:47.450
companies, just choose a random 20
internet companies.

499
00:23:47.450 --> 00:23:48.092
The most profitable way to basically...

500
00:23:48.734 --> 00:23:55.480
that trade is buy those 20 and never ever
sell your winners even if you win like

501
00:23:55.480 --> 00:23:57.480
half a portfolio exactly,

502
00:23:57.480 --> 00:24:02.705
I mean that's what Nasmus made his fortune
on until recently never ever sell because

503
00:24:02.705 --> 00:24:02.845
the Ted

504
00:24:02.845 --> 00:24:09.350
Sitter just basically hold it on for 20
years and you did the best job you could

505
00:24:09.350 --> 00:24:11.350
have done yeah

506
00:24:11.350 --> 00:24:13.193
that's a good theory and it must be put to
the test in an open forum,

507
00:24:13.834 --> 00:24:20.496
thank you very much for your time and
again thank you for giving me food for

508
00:24:20.496 --> 00:24:22.496
thought David Shapiro is from SESC and
Securities, if they're not listening, that

509
00:24:22.496 --> 00:24:24.496
is.

510
00:24:24.496 --> 00:24:27.182
I'm going to go and speak to the

511
00:24:27.242 --> 00:24:28.443
committee at SESC.

512
00:24:28.444 --> 00:24:30.805
How can you say that?

513
00:24:30.825 --> 00:24:33.226
That's what I'm saying.

514
00:24:34.988 --> 00:24:35.989
I'll back you up, David.

515
00:24:36.449 --> 00:24:39.211
And Viv Govendit is from Ranswiss, and
that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

516
00:24:39.932 --> 00:24:45.276
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

517
00:24:45.276 --> 00:24:47.276
various contributors.

518
00:24:47.276 --> 00:24:51.403
and do not reflect the policy, position,
or opinion of any other agency,

519
00:24:51.403 --> 00:24:53.403
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520
00:24:53.403 --> 00:24:55.586
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

521
00:24:56.046 --> 00:25:03.012
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
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522
00:25:03.012 --> 00:25:05.012
entity other than the speaker or the
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523
00:25:05.012 --> 00:25:09.197
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

524
00:25:09.197 --> 00:25:11.197
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525
00:25:11.197 --> 00:25:11.338
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526
00:25:11.658 --> 00:25:14.060
Please do not hold us to them in
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