WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.412 --> 00:00:04.555 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.196 --> 00:00:08.498 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock 3 00:00:08.498 --> 00:00:08.678 shadow. 4 00:00:08.678 --> 00:00:14.022 And as it's a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old 5 00:00:14.022 --> 00:00:16.022 Oak in Cape 6 00:00:16.022 --> 00:00:18.445 Town. South Africa in focus today, Skulk, for domestic and international regions. 7 00:00:18.465 --> 00:00:24.569 On the international stage, Sir Ramaphosa jetting off at taxpayers' expense to see 8 00:00:25.070 --> 00:00:27.371 President, what's his name, Trump. 9 00:00:27.452 --> 00:00:28.152 That's it. 10 00:00:28.712 --> 00:00:31.474 In the White House, and hopefully that goes well. 11 00:00:31.475 --> 00:00:34.597 I don't know if they've seen each other yet, but you can comment upon that. 12 00:00:34.598 --> 00:00:36.959 And domestically, the budget, of course. 13 00:00:37.239 --> 00:00:39.060 Budget three, return of the budget. 14 00:00:39.521 --> 00:00:44.525 And I don't know, it's embarrassing to get to the point where you're on budget number 15 00:00:44.525 --> 00:00:44.744 three, 16 00:00:44.805 --> 00:00:48.248 but good that they didn't just go through number one to avoid embarrassment. 17 00:00:49.269 --> 00:00:50.189 What happened in the budget? 18 00:00:50.290 --> 00:00:51.851 What happened to budget three, please? 19 00:00:52.732 --> 00:00:57.816 Well, let's first look at... 20 00:00:58.392 --> 00:01:05.094 the current um state of affairs uh in the north because that was the first part of 21 00:01:05.094 --> 00:01:07.094 the question yeah um no they haven't 22 00:01:07.094 --> 00:01:11.976 started so so uh though while we we we've just decided this podcast it's now 23 00:01:11.976 --> 00:01:13.976 literally just passed five markets just 24 00:01:13.976 --> 00:01:14.796 close so hence the five o'clock shadow so 25 00:01:15.397 --> 00:01:21.938 um yeah in exactly half an hour the u.s president will greet uh the president of 26 00:01:21.938 --> 00:01:23.938 africa president 27 00:01:23.938 --> 00:01:28.817 then they will have a nice lunch you know at 1745 they will start with a very Very 28 00:01:28.817 --> 00:01:30.817 nice lunch. 29 00:01:30.817 --> 00:01:33.259 And then they'll start with the meeting exactly an hour later. 30 00:01:33.279 --> 00:01:37.441 So I think, what's the thing about the pawpaw and the fan? 31 00:01:38.382 --> 00:01:39.662 If there's such a thing, 32 00:01:40.763 --> 00:01:45.385 it will pretty much hit that methodical fan, 33 00:01:46.006 --> 00:01:51.589 anything between quarter to seven and quarter to eight, 34 00:01:52.009 --> 00:01:55.111 because at exactly quarter to eight, they will start the press conference. 35 00:01:55.211 --> 00:01:56.972 And unlike I know... 36 00:01:58.256 --> 00:02:02.398 Our president, I reckon they will start promptly on time. 37 00:02:02.678 --> 00:02:04.499 So I don't know what there will be, 38 00:02:05.019 --> 00:02:10.021 how tense discussions will be in half an hour's time, 39 00:02:10.521 --> 00:02:15.884 but they will have this conversation. 40 00:02:16.044 --> 00:02:17.725 What's on Ramaphosa's agenda? 41 00:02:17.845 --> 00:02:21.166 Because I think what he wants to talk about, of course, 42 00:02:21.186 --> 00:02:25.488 is tariffs and the accusations by the Trump administration that South Africa 43 00:02:26.012 --> 00:02:29.854 is marginalising certain elements of the population, 44 00:02:31.515 --> 00:02:35.297 almost like a genocide they're talking about, which is a gross exaggeration. 45 00:02:35.317 --> 00:02:39.920 There has been nastiness in the past, but that is what Trump is going to say. 46 00:02:40.300 --> 00:02:43.702 Essentially, he's going to say that the black people, 47 00:02:43.762 --> 00:02:49.865 the black population is behaving badly towards the minority white population. 48 00:02:49.866 --> 00:02:52.466 That's essentially what goes into Trump's brain, isn't it? 49 00:02:52.706 --> 00:02:54.647 And that's what he's going to talk about. 50 00:02:54.888 --> 00:02:55.588 But also... 51 00:02:55.960 --> 00:03:00.524 He must be having a look at what South Africa has that he wants. 52 00:03:00.664 --> 00:03:04.387 And I was asking this of another commentator the other day, and he couldn't 53 00:03:04.387 --> 00:03:06.387 think of anything. 54 00:03:06.387 --> 00:03:08.250 But I noticed that a company called Renogen did well recently. 55 00:03:08.610 --> 00:03:11.393 And that's all to do with, I think, is it to do with helium? 56 00:03:12.694 --> 00:03:14.215 There's something that I read. 57 00:03:14.475 --> 00:03:17.057 But again, I'm not an analyst, so I'm handing over to you on this one. 58 00:03:18.038 --> 00:03:21.321 Yeah, I think it's going to be... 59 00:03:21.322 --> 00:03:24.984 So most of the commentators that I've heard are... 60 00:03:25.044 --> 00:03:31.827 to up to this point um i tend to think we're gonna have a let's call it a trump 61 00:03:32.407 --> 00:03:38.910 zelinski part two type of and you remember what happened i think was a month or two 62 00:03:38.910 --> 00:03:40.910 ago where where they had that 63 00:03:40.910 --> 00:03:44.452 nice little meeting in jd vaughn's with with the zelinski 64 00:03:44.612 --> 00:03:51.595 and he just stepped into a minefield and when i say minefield it was a bazooka of a 65 00:03:51.595 --> 00:03:53.595 minefield and i 66 00:03:53.595 --> 00:03:56.317 thought he handled that really well And the better handled it, 67 00:03:56.417 --> 00:03:59.358 it just escalated into something that was really, really bad. 68 00:03:59.378 --> 00:04:02.079 But be that as it may, a lot of commentators felt that 69 00:04:03.519 --> 00:04:07.701 President Trump and Paulson were looking at a similar affair. 70 00:04:07.741 --> 00:04:09.102 And I don't think so. 71 00:04:09.262 --> 00:04:12.603 He's such an unbelievable diplomat. 72 00:04:14.484 --> 00:04:20.546 What is Roof? What is the old chief negotiator of the National Party back 73 00:04:20.546 --> 00:04:22.546 when… 74 00:04:22.546 --> 00:04:24.546 Roof Mayer? 75 00:04:24.546 --> 00:04:26.546 No, that wasn't him. 76 00:04:26.546 --> 00:04:28.546 No, no. 77 00:04:28.546 --> 00:04:30.546 No, it's Ruf. 78 00:04:30.546 --> 00:04:32.546 It was chief negotiator. 79 00:04:32.546 --> 00:04:34.383 And I remember him at one of the PSG conferences a few years ago. 80 00:04:34.703 --> 00:04:37.986 And I'll give you time to search if you've got a laptop in front of you. 81 00:04:38.306 --> 00:04:39.447 But because I think you might be right. 82 00:04:39.448 --> 00:04:41.809 It might be Ruf Meyer. 83 00:04:43.871 --> 00:04:44.711 Anyway, what was the point? 84 00:04:44.712 --> 00:04:45.412 What did he say? 85 00:04:46.248 --> 00:04:52.272 And he mentioned that back then, people tend to think that he is the best. 86 00:04:53.093 --> 00:04:58.437 And when I say him, it was, I think it was Ruth Mayer. 87 00:04:59.157 --> 00:05:00.138 Yeah, it was Ruth Mayer. 88 00:05:00.178 --> 00:05:00.878 That's 100%. 89 00:05:01.178 --> 00:05:06.322 He was the best negotiator that Africa has ever seen. 90 00:05:06.742 --> 00:05:08.824 And he went like, no, no. 91 00:05:09.864 --> 00:05:14.848 He still thinks to date, he's never met a better negotiator than... 92 00:05:16.369 --> 00:05:17.649 than President Ramaphosa. 93 00:05:18.210 --> 00:05:24.093 And I've got no doubt that he is well prepared for this conversation. 94 00:05:24.453 --> 00:05:27.375 He knows it's not going to be an easy conversation. 95 00:05:27.415 --> 00:05:30.136 I think President Trump has made that clear. 96 00:05:30.716 --> 00:05:35.399 And I think, yeah, let's say Rome wasn't built in a day, but in South Africa, 97 00:05:36.740 --> 00:05:39.361 it's like Cape Town being called the mother city. 98 00:05:39.381 --> 00:05:42.663 You know, everything takes nine months to happen down here. 99 00:05:42.883 --> 00:05:44.324 And I think South Africa in general, 100 00:05:44.980 --> 00:05:51.743 has fallen that that that that that sort of timeline i i but i do think he's gonna 101 00:05:51.743 --> 00:05:53.743 he's gonna 102 00:05:53.743 --> 00:05:58.786 tell president you know trump that that a lot need to be done and let's 103 00:05:58.846 --> 00:06:05.609 let's hope let's hope it goes well um because i know we we need the investment 104 00:06:05.609 --> 00:06:07.609 you know from from the u.s um 105 00:06:07.609 --> 00:06:12.872 you know we've we you you talked about it we had budget 3.0 today that like now you 106 00:06:12.872 --> 00:06:14.872 know off the table. 107 00:06:14.872 --> 00:06:20.546 So that means South Africa will, according to the budget 2.0, 108 00:06:21.306 --> 00:06:26.167 will now have about 62 billion rand less revenue over the next three years. 109 00:06:26.467 --> 00:06:29.808 And on a fiscal basis, we're already struggling. 110 00:06:30.909 --> 00:06:34.290 On an economic growth basis, we're already struggling. 111 00:06:34.350 --> 00:06:41.271 So we will need to step up and start showing the globe 112 00:06:42.472 --> 00:06:46.165 that… that we're serious on fighting corruption. 113 00:06:46.945 --> 00:06:50.246 We're serious on working together with the rest of the world. 114 00:06:50.566 --> 00:06:51.266 Yeah, let's see. 115 00:06:51.466 --> 00:06:56.287 I think we've got, let's call it an hour and a half, and then we'll start in two 116 00:06:56.287 --> 00:06:56.288 and a half hours. 117 00:06:56.288 --> 00:06:58.248 So I'll definitely have a better idea. 118 00:06:58.708 --> 00:06:59.408 Okay. 119 00:06:59.448 --> 00:07:05.310 Well, we'll also have a look at what the Treasury has said about the future. 120 00:07:05.311 --> 00:07:08.351 I mean, what everyone says is you can tweak a bit here, you can tweak a bit 121 00:07:08.351 --> 00:07:08.651 there. 122 00:07:08.651 --> 00:07:12.852 You can raise VAT by 2%, which is an outstandingly bad, to 123 00:07:13.252 --> 00:07:19.934 decision to even put it forward because it taxes the poor more than it taxes the rich 124 00:07:19.934 --> 00:07:21.934 it's so stupid i know they've got a hold hold to fill 125 00:07:21.934 --> 00:07:26.616 but not through vat so we'll find out exactly how the how they plan it but 126 00:07:26.616 --> 00:07:28.616 everyone says never mind the fiddling 127 00:07:28.616 --> 00:07:33.918 uh rome's still burning and you have to get growth going and i've been reporting 128 00:07:33.918 --> 00:07:35.918 on that for more than 20 129 00:07:35.918 --> 00:07:36.138 years every year it's the same where 130 00:07:36.298 --> 00:07:41.820 is the growth stimulus where is the fiscal stimulus and we never ever get it 131 00:07:42.140 --> 00:07:43.841 you as South Africans never get its go. 132 00:07:44.162 --> 00:07:47.584 And it must be frustrating for you when you see the potential of the country. 133 00:07:49.326 --> 00:07:55.431 I mean, if we sat with a scenario where we look at the whole of, let's call it the 134 00:07:55.431 --> 00:07:55.451 continent, 135 00:07:56.271 --> 00:08:01.776 the African continent struggling, then I would have said, ah, you know what, 136 00:08:02.396 --> 00:08:04.298 we're a small fish in a big pond, 137 00:08:04.538 --> 00:08:09.902 and unfortunately this is the pool that we've been dealt with. 138 00:08:11.624 --> 00:08:12.865 But the case. 139 00:08:13.145 --> 00:08:20.089 Some of these African countries, countries that have been way smaller in terms of 140 00:08:20.089 --> 00:08:22.089 GDPs now are surpassing us. 141 00:08:22.089 --> 00:08:22.110 Growth rates are 4% to 5%. 142 00:08:23.251 --> 00:08:24.691 And we're struggling to get one. 143 00:08:24.711 --> 00:08:29.154 We're not going to get one if the IMF is correct for 2025. 144 00:08:29.155 --> 00:08:30.595 I mean, that is disappointing. 145 00:08:30.635 --> 00:08:34.797 I mean, we're not even close to a population growth rate. 146 00:08:34.877 --> 00:08:36.498 And that's dangerous. 147 00:08:36.538 --> 00:08:43.121 You know, we're really sitting with official unemployment levels of 33, 34%. 148 00:08:43.122 --> 00:08:48.302 And if you look at the sort of the unofficial levels, we're sitting between 149 00:08:48.302 --> 00:08:50.302 50 and 60% 150 00:08:50.302 --> 00:08:50.523 of the South African population sitting with our jobs. 151 00:08:50.963 --> 00:08:53.924 And that we need to change that. 152 00:08:53.964 --> 00:08:56.845 If we can't change that, we're sitting in a dire, dire situation. 153 00:08:57.105 --> 00:08:58.005 I do think we can. 154 00:08:58.025 --> 00:08:59.445 We've got all the resources. 155 00:09:00.666 --> 00:09:02.266 I think we're sitting at a pivotal point. 156 00:09:02.466 --> 00:09:06.187 Pivotal point in terms of political. 157 00:09:06.447 --> 00:09:08.268 I mean, I think last year's... 158 00:09:08.688 --> 00:09:15.453 election was a massive massive turning point um and and i think we've got 159 00:09:15.513 --> 00:09:22.459 the opportunity now to change things let's see this takes a long time somebody put it 160 00:09:22.459 --> 00:09:24.459 to me very simply the other day and that's what i like i 161 00:09:24.459 --> 00:09:29.104 like uh a concept that is simply understood and if you went to somebody and 162 00:09:29.104 --> 00:09:31.104 they said to you well explain unemployment to me 163 00:09:31.104 --> 00:09:34.108 and you might say okay if you go to the Netherlands. 164 00:09:34.692 --> 00:09:41.601 And you're walking along the street and you pass a hundred people of working age 165 00:09:41.601 --> 00:09:43.601 and have the ability to work. 166 00:09:43.601 --> 00:09:45.601 So in other words, they're employable. 167 00:09:45.601 --> 00:09:46.226 They are part of the ranks of the employable. 168 00:09:47.087 --> 00:09:49.390 Let's say four of those people. 169 00:09:50.458 --> 00:09:51.259 wouldn't have a job. 170 00:09:51.739 --> 00:09:52.860 96 of them would. 171 00:09:53.240 --> 00:09:57.964 You go to South Africa and three people pass you, two of them haven't got a job. 172 00:09:59.025 --> 00:09:59.946 Yeah, yeah. 173 00:10:00.367 --> 00:10:03.349 Well, that's official figures. 174 00:10:03.449 --> 00:10:04.330 No, what am I talking about? 175 00:10:04.850 --> 00:10:07.913 One of them, the rate is 32.9%. 176 00:10:07.914 --> 00:10:08.614 I do apologize. 177 00:10:08.854 --> 00:10:12.337 So a third of the working population is unemployed. 178 00:10:12.537 --> 00:10:18.502 So three people pass you, two have a job and one doesn't, which is staggering. 179 00:10:19.870 --> 00:10:20.570 It is. 180 00:10:20.831 --> 00:10:21.531 It is staggering. 181 00:10:21.671 --> 00:10:24.493 And you can't build on that. 182 00:10:25.113 --> 00:10:30.116 And if we're sitting in a scenario where we say, well, okay, the IMF came out and 183 00:10:30.116 --> 00:10:32.116 said, oh, fantastic. 184 00:10:32.116 --> 00:10:33.258 I mean, we might have a struggling year because remember, 185 00:10:33.259 --> 00:10:37.920 the US just went into their first quarter contraction. 186 00:10:38.160 --> 00:10:42.823 So we know two quarters, we were talking about a recession with their very Q1. 187 00:10:43.743 --> 00:10:48.746 So it's always struggling for the largest country in the world. 188 00:10:50.135 --> 00:10:55.217 are contracting in terms of to actually grow, considering the globe is sort of 189 00:10:55.217 --> 00:10:55.298 contracting. 190 00:10:55.978 --> 00:11:02.501 But, I mean, the IMF is not, I mean, IMF, World Bank, and all these local 191 00:11:02.501 --> 00:11:04.501 economists, 192 00:11:04.501 --> 00:11:08.144 they're not coming out and say, well, we're going to struggle a little bit this 193 00:11:08.144 --> 00:11:10.144 year because the globe is going to be struggling. 194 00:11:10.144 --> 00:11:13.927 But, man, oh, man, next year, Africa should be growing 2% to 2.5% 195 00:11:13.928 --> 00:11:15.969 in the year after anything between 3% and 4%. 196 00:11:15.989 --> 00:11:17.249 They're not coming out with that. 197 00:11:17.269 --> 00:11:20.964 And while they're not doing that, You know, countries like the U.S. 198 00:11:21.224 --> 00:11:23.385 and other countries, first world countries, 199 00:11:23.805 --> 00:11:29.449 it's not going to have this massive target on South Africa stating that we need to go 200 00:11:29.449 --> 00:11:31.449 and invest in that country. 201 00:11:31.449 --> 00:11:33.449 And that's what we need. 202 00:11:33.449 --> 00:11:35.449 We need investment. 203 00:11:35.449 --> 00:11:37.449 And if we're going to get investment, we're going to get growth. 204 00:11:37.449 --> 00:11:39.056 If we're going to get growth, we're going to get unemployment levels down, et 205 00:11:39.056 --> 00:11:41.056 cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 206 00:11:41.056 --> 00:11:41.177 Anyway, I do think we can do that. 207 00:11:41.257 --> 00:11:45.160 But I would say even a thousand mile walk begin with the first step. 208 00:11:45.161 --> 00:11:50.543 and I think tonight, now, in our South, definitely will be one of the first steps. 209 00:11:50.563 --> 00:11:52.143 Let's see how it takes it. 210 00:11:52.144 --> 00:11:54.084 Okay, why is the dollar so weak, Skalk? 211 00:11:54.124 --> 00:11:58.005 Is it to do with budget negotiations in the United States of America? 212 00:11:58.285 --> 00:12:00.705 In other words, Trump's big, beautiful bill. 213 00:12:01.005 --> 00:12:07.207 Are people saying, well, if it does go through, even in a diluted form, it's 214 00:12:07.207 --> 00:12:09.207 going to undermine the value of the US dollar? 215 00:12:09.207 --> 00:12:09.208 Or is it something else? 216 00:12:09.209 --> 00:12:10.148 What am I missing here? 217 00:12:10.368 --> 00:12:11.828 Why is the dollar under pressure? 218 00:12:12.149 --> 00:12:15.870 And why is that a good thing for precious metals, which is something that you're 219 00:12:15.870 --> 00:12:17.870 looking forward to? 220 00:12:17.870 --> 00:12:19.870 But first, answer the question. 221 00:12:19.870 --> 00:12:24.559 dollar weakness well it's it's well firstly i mean we just talked about you 222 00:12:24.559 --> 00:12:26.559 know that the first 223 00:12:26.559 --> 00:12:31.543 quarter contractions um they're sitting with with massive massive massive debt 224 00:12:31.543 --> 00:12:33.543 levels i think they're sitting with a very yeah usually i mean and for 225 00:12:33.543 --> 00:12:38.228 the listeners out there you know what lindsay is saying you know we haven't seen 226 00:12:38.228 --> 00:12:40.228 interest rate cuts um we went into 227 00:12:40.228 --> 00:12:43.972 2025 um not hoping i mean all the smart people 228 00:12:44.052 --> 00:12:50.209 out there were telling us don't worry we're going to see three We're going to 229 00:12:50.209 --> 00:12:52.209 see three rate cuts in 2025. 230 00:12:52.209 --> 00:12:54.209 We're sitting in May month. 231 00:12:54.209 --> 00:12:56.209 We're not going to see one. 232 00:12:56.209 --> 00:12:59.076 I mean, as it stands, we're not going to see one this month or next month or July. 233 00:12:59.516 --> 00:13:03.800 I mean, now if we look at the CME Fed tool, 234 00:13:04.580 --> 00:13:08.223 that's a tool which sort of gives you probabilities. 235 00:13:08.404 --> 00:13:09.224 They trade that. 236 00:13:09.264 --> 00:13:12.567 They trade the probability of rate cuts or hikes. 237 00:13:13.268 --> 00:13:17.991 and that probability is currently trading at about a figure of 49% 238 00:13:18.791 --> 00:13:22.853 probability that we'll only see the first one in September. 239 00:13:24.253 --> 00:13:29.376 Now, I mean, 50-50 is way better than the odds we're currently seeing for the next 240 00:13:29.376 --> 00:13:29.616 few months. 241 00:13:29.616 --> 00:13:36.158 But while we're not seeing these rate cuts, one would have said, well, the 242 00:13:36.158 --> 00:13:38.158 currency should be increasing because, 243 00:13:38.158 --> 00:13:39.380 remember, higher rates is good. 244 00:13:41.241 --> 00:13:42.021 It's a good thing. 245 00:13:42.081 --> 00:13:44.322 But also remember, um 246 00:13:46.510 --> 00:13:50.752 It's also telling us that the longer they keep the rates higher, 247 00:13:52.632 --> 00:13:57.914 the larger the probability is that the US will go into a full-blown recession. 248 00:13:58.674 --> 00:14:02.715 One more quarter, if Q2 is a contraction as well, 249 00:14:03.075 --> 00:14:05.756 they will be in a full-blown recession. 250 00:14:06.276 --> 00:14:07.676 And I think Mr. 251 00:14:07.716 --> 00:14:09.977 Marker is telling us things are not well. 252 00:14:09.997 --> 00:14:13.478 I mean, they're sitting with debt levels way, way too bad. 253 00:14:14.018 --> 00:14:14.718 And... 254 00:14:14.718 --> 00:14:18.343 they need to get out of these debt level scenarios. 255 00:14:18.423 --> 00:14:21.006 And I don't think they know how to do that for now. 256 00:14:21.867 --> 00:14:22.988 No, I don't think so either. 257 00:14:23.809 --> 00:14:30.477 Skalkia, it is the lower tax bill in the United States that is causing the 258 00:14:30.477 --> 00:14:30.697 problems. 259 00:14:32.182 --> 00:14:34.784 But every cloud has a silver lining. 260 00:14:34.884 --> 00:14:37.866 Every sword has a double edge, and the double edge is coming up now. 261 00:14:37.886 --> 00:14:39.367 But let me just start with other markets. 262 00:14:39.368 --> 00:14:42.389 The rand is very good indeed, 1789, 263 00:14:42.409 --> 00:14:46.392 which is about a quarter of a percent down for the US dollar. 264 00:14:47.032 --> 00:14:49.374 British pound against the rand is 2405. 265 00:14:49.394 --> 00:14:53.156 Euro rand is 2030, so not much there really. 266 00:14:53.857 --> 00:14:59.461 Euro dollar, 11350, which is about 0.6% up for the euro. 267 00:15:00.361 --> 00:15:06.232 and um Then we go to commodities, which are really, really good fun for commodity 268 00:15:06.232 --> 00:15:08.232 bulls. 269 00:15:08.232 --> 00:15:08.853 The gold price is up 2.5%. 270 00:15:08.854 --> 00:15:11.474 I've got 33.12 on my slightly delayed screen. 271 00:15:11.914 --> 00:15:12.935 $80 plus. 272 00:15:12.995 --> 00:15:13.695 Fantastic. 273 00:15:14.195 --> 00:15:19.197 You said it the other day, and you said the case for gold hadn't changed, and 274 00:15:19.197 --> 00:15:21.197 indeed it hasn't changed at all. 275 00:15:21.197 --> 00:15:21.458 In fact, it's probably even more rosy. 276 00:15:21.898 --> 00:15:25.140 The platinum price is staggering, up nearly 10%. 277 00:15:25.160 --> 00:15:28.141 $97, we'll call it. 278 00:15:28.601 --> 00:15:30.382 $1,089. 279 00:15:30.786 --> 00:15:35.690 Per ounce, broken three levels with, sorry, four figures with a vengeance. 280 00:15:35.971 --> 00:15:39.754 Palladium up 3.2%, 1,050. 281 00:15:40.394 --> 00:15:45.779 And did all this start with talks between Ramaphosa and Trump being mooted and 282 00:15:45.779 --> 00:15:45.819 saying, well, 283 00:15:46.099 --> 00:15:47.821 maybe this is good for the platinum industry? 284 00:15:47.861 --> 00:15:50.543 I don't quite see the link, but that's what people were saying. 285 00:15:51.764 --> 00:15:55.488 But Skulk, weaker dollar, white metals taking off. 286 00:15:55.748 --> 00:15:56.729 Fantastic news. 287 00:15:58.406 --> 00:15:59.567 Yeah, we need that. 288 00:15:59.687 --> 00:16:05.871 I mean, we're the largest producer of palladium, second largest of platinum, 289 00:16:06.392 --> 00:16:09.293 largest by country mile in rhodium. 290 00:16:09.654 --> 00:16:16.498 So these type of commodities as lag, but it's been an uptick in commodities in 291 00:16:16.498 --> 00:16:16.699 general. 292 00:16:16.699 --> 00:16:23.243 I mean, the CRB Commodity Index, which you follow very, very closely, 293 00:16:23.663 --> 00:16:27.546 I mean, that was trading at the 340 levels. 294 00:16:28.410 --> 00:16:33.112 a month ago in April, now trading closer to 370 levels already, 295 00:16:33.252 --> 00:16:35.593 or 365 levels. 296 00:16:35.594 --> 00:16:37.574 So definitely increasing as well. 297 00:16:38.374 --> 00:16:41.656 So in general, if we see a weaker dollar, 298 00:16:42.056 --> 00:16:48.599 one can expect these commodities to improve or 299 00:16:48.679 --> 00:16:52.920 increase, which naturally will be great for South Africa. 300 00:16:53.100 --> 00:16:53.941 And we're seeing this. 301 00:16:53.981 --> 00:16:55.801 I mean, this will be good for our current account. 302 00:16:57.526 --> 00:17:04.428 with the eighth largest producer of of gold uh we're a large producer of copper 303 00:17:04.428 --> 00:17:06.428 so this this will be really really good it's 304 00:17:06.428 --> 00:17:11.270 just how how do we deploy it can we can we benefit out of these these commodities 305 00:17:11.270 --> 00:17:13.270 improve yeah i 306 00:17:13.270 --> 00:17:15.971 don't think the the case case for uh gold or precious metal for that matter as 307 00:17:16.171 --> 00:17:22.333 as diminished i think it's uh very much in play um and the weaker the dollar will get 308 00:17:22.333 --> 00:17:24.333 the more 309 00:17:24.333 --> 00:17:25.134 interesting these commodities will become. 310 00:17:25.458 --> 00:17:29.861 Other commodities, West Texas crude down half a percent to $61.71. 311 00:17:29.862 --> 00:17:34.084 And Brent crude oil, $65.04 per barrel, also down half a percent. 312 00:17:34.124 --> 00:17:37.367 Looking at the CRB graph, it's made a sloping double bottom. 313 00:17:37.407 --> 00:17:40.509 Looks as though it's going to challenge the recent highs of $3.80 plus. 314 00:17:41.010 --> 00:17:42.150 To me, it does anyway. 315 00:17:42.210 --> 00:17:44.132 Natural gas down 1.1%. 316 00:17:44.952 --> 00:17:45.652 What else we got? 317 00:17:45.652 --> 00:17:47.574 Copper barely changed. 318 00:17:47.955 --> 00:17:52.438 Okay, S&P 500 futures coming off their lows. 319 00:17:52.678 --> 00:17:55.499 with a bit of a vengeance, actually, only down 0.2% now. 320 00:17:55.579 --> 00:17:57.639 We're down around about three quarters of a percent. 321 00:17:57.999 --> 00:18:01.620 The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has been sharply in focus. 322 00:18:01.641 --> 00:18:04.961 I know the 30-year has gone above 5%. 323 00:18:05.242 --> 00:18:09.863 The 10-year bond yield in the States now 452, 324 00:18:10.323 --> 00:18:14.004 which is four basis points higher in terms of the yield. 325 00:18:14.005 --> 00:18:18.105 And obviously the reciprocal arrangement is that the actual bond prices go down. 326 00:18:18.145 --> 00:18:19.946 So yield up, bond prices down. 327 00:18:20.326 --> 00:18:21.146 So a bad day. 328 00:18:21.466 --> 00:18:22.647 for the US bond market. 329 00:18:23.187 --> 00:18:24.808 And what else have we got going on here? 330 00:18:25.429 --> 00:18:27.730 An extraordinary move in Bitcoin. 331 00:18:28.311 --> 00:18:29.752 It's close to all-time record highs. 332 00:18:29.753 --> 00:18:33.995 It's up 3.5% at the moment, 109,057. 333 00:18:33.996 --> 00:18:34.696 I mean, come on now. 334 00:18:34.696 --> 00:18:36.116 I think that is a record high, actually. 335 00:18:36.817 --> 00:18:37.517 Look at that thing. 336 00:18:37.758 --> 00:18:42.061 I don't know, but I can't recall hearing it ever at those levels. 337 00:18:42.062 --> 00:18:44.002 So I think you might be right. 338 00:18:44.202 --> 00:18:45.883 Yeah, it was 108 before. 339 00:18:46.224 --> 00:18:47.385 Yeah, I'm looking at the graph now. 340 00:18:47.386 --> 00:18:49.186 It's sliced through the highs. 341 00:18:49.926 --> 00:18:52.408 And so a lot of people are making an awful lot of money. 342 00:18:53.168 --> 00:18:58.892 And Trump, I think, being one of them because of his meme and they all follow 343 00:18:58.892 --> 00:19:00.892 each other. 344 00:19:00.892 --> 00:19:05.076 But goodness me, strong buys on all the analysts from all the analysts on the on 345 00:19:05.076 --> 00:19:05.576 the 346 00:19:05.576 --> 00:19:06.357 cryptocurrencies. 347 00:19:06.397 --> 00:19:07.558 If you're making money, good luck. 348 00:19:07.618 --> 00:19:09.419 If you're not a little bit too late. 349 00:19:09.439 --> 00:19:15.643 I think the South African 10 year bond after the budget, I've got 10.735 percent, 350 00:19:15.643 --> 00:19:17.643 which is. 351 00:19:17.643 --> 00:19:18.105 Yeah, it's a little bit higher. 352 00:19:18.886 --> 00:19:19.586 A scope. 353 00:19:19.987 --> 00:19:26.338 anything on the JSC today I saw results from Southern Sun and I've seen the 354 00:19:26.338 --> 00:19:28.338 platinum stocks of course dominating the 355 00:19:28.338 --> 00:19:32.530 upside when it comes to the board the big movers on the upside anything else you've 356 00:19:32.530 --> 00:19:34.530 seen I'll come to the platinum stocks in a second 357 00:19:34.530 --> 00:19:36.849 Yeah, I mean, you mentioned all the platinum stocks. 358 00:19:36.889 --> 00:19:42.412 I mean, Northern, Stillwater, Impala, and Amplas, you know, 359 00:19:42.472 --> 00:19:44.154 the four of the best and the top five. 360 00:19:44.874 --> 00:19:50.338 The one that actually stood out for me over the past few days must be Sasol. 361 00:19:50.418 --> 00:19:52.620 Sasol, yeah. 362 00:19:53.080 --> 00:19:58.884 It's one of those, just when you want to give up, it's just, I just can't take this 363 00:19:58.884 --> 00:20:00.884 anymore. 364 00:20:00.884 --> 00:20:01.746 Let's just, you know, just... 365 00:20:01.846 --> 00:20:08.771 go let's just get out of this then it sort of gives you throw your bone and then 366 00:20:08.771 --> 00:20:10.771 assassin has definitely thrown you know the 367 00:20:10.771 --> 00:20:15.795 shell there's a bone again today close to five percent up trading over 83 events so 368 00:20:15.795 --> 00:20:17.795 that's that's one that sort of marked 369 00:20:17.795 --> 00:20:20.919 my interest or got my interest over the last few days and and then i think that 370 00:20:20.919 --> 00:20:22.919 the one 371 00:20:22.919 --> 00:20:27.623 that really stood out was was um multi-choice um they came out with their 372 00:20:27.623 --> 00:20:29.623 sense announcement 373 00:20:29.623 --> 00:20:31.346 basically just saying that the competition Commission recommended. 374 00:20:31.862 --> 00:20:35.565 that the competition tribunal approved the proposed acquisition. 375 00:20:35.585 --> 00:20:41.050 Now, we know that the offer currently on the table, you know, from Channel Plus, 376 00:20:41.050 --> 00:20:43.050 or, you know, 377 00:20:43.050 --> 00:20:48.556 as we know it here, Channel Plus, is now currently, you know, on 125, 378 00:20:48.557 --> 00:20:49.536 125 Rand. 379 00:20:49.997 --> 00:20:53.259 So today, after this sense announcement came out, 380 00:20:53.720 --> 00:21:00.565 share price had a lecker run up from this morning, previous close, 112 Rand, 381 00:21:00.605 --> 00:21:01.305 today closed. 382 00:21:01.486 --> 00:21:08.411 just shelf 117 rand so it seems like it seems like it's that that that thing is 383 00:21:08.411 --> 00:21:10.411 going to go through so there's 384 00:21:10.411 --> 00:21:14.915 still a little bit a little bit of meat on the bone but just always remember your 385 00:21:14.915 --> 00:21:16.915 trading cost be careful 386 00:21:16.915 --> 00:21:20.459 okay thanks for that advice you're from your friendly broker scout low uh northern 387 00:21:20.499 --> 00:21:26.723 platinum up 7.8 the big winner sebanya still water up 7.6 we'll call it impala 388 00:21:26.723 --> 00:21:26.744 platinum 389 00:21:26.744 --> 00:21:28.184 7.2% in the green. 390 00:21:28.584 --> 00:21:30.706 Anglo-American platinum, just over 5%. 391 00:21:31.366 --> 00:21:35.368 And Sassler, 4.5%, 83 rand 17. 392 00:21:35.689 --> 00:21:40.591 Go back to April the 9th of this year, Skulk, and it was flirting with 50, 393 00:21:40.752 --> 00:21:43.053 53 rand per share. 394 00:21:43.073 --> 00:21:45.214 So 53 to 83 is 30. 395 00:21:45.554 --> 00:21:50.277 30 divided by 50, more than 60% up in a month and a half. 396 00:21:50.377 --> 00:21:51.077 Not bad. 397 00:21:52.138 --> 00:21:54.380 Yeah, I don't want to tell you where it came from. 398 00:21:55.400 --> 00:21:56.901 Don't spoil it, Skulk. 399 00:21:56.902 --> 00:21:58.422 I mean, I love it when you make it. 400 00:21:58.902 --> 00:22:01.944 our glass half full because we are full type of persons. 401 00:22:04.326 --> 00:22:05.246 Exactly a year ago, 402 00:22:06.487 --> 00:22:11.931 this share price was trading at well over 130. 403 00:22:12.051 --> 00:22:14.493 I've got a price here of 138 Rand. 404 00:22:16.094 --> 00:22:22.678 If you just turn the clock back two years ago, May 2023, 405 00:22:22.679 --> 00:22:27.362 the share price was trading 240 Rand levels. 406 00:22:27.382 --> 00:22:32.279 Today's Your movement up to 83.15 is a definite win, as you mentioned, from the 407 00:22:33.159 --> 00:22:35.780 50 odd grand levels we've seen in April. 408 00:22:35.840 --> 00:22:42.182 But it's still got a hell of a lot of way to run just to catch up. 409 00:22:42.562 --> 00:22:43.782 But yeah, I'll take it. 410 00:22:43.962 --> 00:22:44.843 I'll definitely take it. 411 00:22:44.883 --> 00:22:48.404 It's been a nice ride over the past few days. 412 00:22:49.064 --> 00:22:50.624 On the downside, it's rats and mice, really. 413 00:22:50.664 --> 00:22:52.145 And some of them I don't even recognize. 414 00:22:52.165 --> 00:22:53.125 It's El Tal, of course. 415 00:22:53.126 --> 00:22:54.946 That's the worst performer, down 5.5%. 416 00:22:55.386 --> 00:23:01.951 a surer power Premier, Premier down 1.8% and Datatech down 1.5%. 417 00:23:02.051 --> 00:23:06.234 So fairly quiet stuff in South Africa, apart from, of course, the PGMs. 418 00:23:06.575 --> 00:23:07.596 And this is fantastic. 419 00:23:07.716 --> 00:23:10.318 I know people that have been sitting this one out for a long, 420 00:23:10.398 --> 00:23:17.184 long time and biting their nails and just holding on and thinking, is this the start 421 00:23:17.184 --> 00:23:19.184 of something? 422 00:23:19.184 --> 00:23:21.184 It might be. 423 00:23:21.184 --> 00:23:23.184 You often get that big move, don't you, to start with. 424 00:23:23.184 --> 00:23:23.790 Comes shooting out the blocks, then it calms down. 425 00:23:24.070 --> 00:23:25.151 and then it starts to build. 426 00:23:25.171 --> 00:23:31.836 I hope that's the case this time, because we really should be boosting the coffers 427 00:23:31.836 --> 00:23:33.836 of South Africa with some revenue 428 00:23:33.836 --> 00:23:35.836 from these mines, Skulk. 429 00:23:35.836 --> 00:23:37.836 Oh, yes. 430 00:23:37.836 --> 00:23:39.262 We can remember the last time we saw big runs in the PGM process, 431 00:23:39.783 --> 00:23:42.265 how good it was for our current account. 432 00:23:42.825 --> 00:23:43.525 Yes. 433 00:23:43.525 --> 00:23:48.150 And usually when it's good for our current account, it's good for our currency, 434 00:23:48.150 --> 00:23:50.150 which, again, 435 00:23:50.150 --> 00:23:53.354 it's good for inflation, it's good for interest rates that can come down, And 436 00:23:53.354 --> 00:23:55.354 then eventually... 437 00:23:55.354 --> 00:24:00.042 you know great for for economy so let's hold thumbs let's hold thumbs let's see 438 00:24:00.042 --> 00:24:02.042 you know hopefully this will continue and 439 00:24:02.042 --> 00:24:07.006 uh as i mentioned we just need to get to do the basics right make sure that uh 440 00:24:07.006 --> 00:24:09.006 we'll be able to to 441 00:24:09.006 --> 00:24:11.668 to mine these these these uh um these pgms get 442 00:24:11.728 --> 00:24:18.472 them on on railway or trucks get them on on ships and make sure that they that they 443 00:24:18.472 --> 00:24:20.472 that they efficiently get 444 00:24:20.472 --> 00:24:21.234 distributed to where they should be produced. 445 00:24:22.394 --> 00:24:25.316 As I say, let's hope it's not a flash in the pan, today's moves. 446 00:24:25.596 --> 00:24:26.536 Enjoy it while you can. 447 00:24:26.656 --> 00:24:27.877 Skulp, thank you very much for your time. 448 00:24:28.017 --> 00:24:32.379 As always, Skulp Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth, Old Oak in Cape 449 00:24:32.379 --> 00:24:32.679 Town. 450 00:24:32.679 --> 00:24:33.920 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 451 00:24:34.488 --> 00:24:41.434 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 452 00:24:41.434 --> 00:24:43.434 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 453 00:24:43.434 --> 00:24:45.197 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 454 00:24:45.517 --> 00:24:50.161 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 455 00:24:50.621 --> 00:24:57.587 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 456 00:24:57.587 --> 00:24:59.587 entity other than the speaker or the author. 457 00:24:59.587 --> 00:25:04.032 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 458 00:25:04.032 --> 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