WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:05.007 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.307 --> 00:00:09.169 BJC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. 3 00:00:09.170 --> 00:00:11.130 And as always, on a Thursday, I've got the doubleheader 4 00:00:11.570 --> 00:00:17.974 Dream Team edition with Viv Govender from Ransuisse and David Shapiro from Assassin 5 00:00:17.974 --> 00:00:19.974 Securities, 6 00:00:19.974 --> 00:00:21.974 both in Johannesburg. 7 00:00:21.974 --> 00:00:23.057 Gentlemen, I know where David stands when it comes to Donald Trump. 8 00:00:23.097 --> 00:00:24.918 I know very much where I stand. 9 00:00:25.298 --> 00:00:29.020 Viv is slightly more restrained and studious about these things. 10 00:00:29.240 --> 00:00:35.125 But I want to know from both of you your impression of what has gone on over the 11 00:00:35.125 --> 00:00:37.125 last few days in the Middle East, notably 12 00:00:37.125 --> 00:00:41.810 Saudi Arabia trip, then Qatar, and at this moment, the United Arab Emirates. And 13 00:00:42.471 --> 00:00:45.113 Viv, I'll start with you on this one, because as I say, 14 00:00:45.373 --> 00:00:49.777 you're slightly more sober in your attitude towards Mr. 15 00:00:49.837 --> 00:00:50.537 Trump. 16 00:00:50.537 --> 00:00:53.099 Do you think, goodness me, he's done so well? 17 00:00:53.199 --> 00:00:56.762 Look at the diplomatic and business breakthroughs he's made. 18 00:00:56.862 --> 00:00:58.664 Or do you think, I don't know? 19 00:00:58.984 --> 00:01:01.946 everything's for him and everything has a price. 20 00:01:02.707 --> 00:01:06.170 I would say this is the best week he's had in this term by far. 21 00:01:07.131 --> 00:01:10.734 If you look at the wins he's had this week, right, so the trade deal with the UK 22 00:01:10.734 --> 00:01:12.734 was last week. 23 00:01:12.734 --> 00:01:14.734 This is China this week, right? 24 00:01:14.734 --> 00:01:19.501 You've seen him basically get that ceasefire done between India and Pakistan, 25 00:01:19.501 --> 00:01:21.501 which basically, you know, 26 00:01:21.501 --> 00:01:24.104 it pretty much was him pressuring the Indians to basically have a ceasefire. 27 00:01:25.145 --> 00:01:28.348 Then there is that executive order around drug prices. 28 00:01:29.108 --> 00:01:33.712 which I think even the Democrats now are coming out and not saying they are just 29 00:01:33.712 --> 00:01:33.873 supporting. 30 00:01:33.873 --> 00:01:38.636 Actually, Ro Khanna from California is saying he's going to basically put a law 31 00:01:38.636 --> 00:01:38.796 forward 32 00:01:38.796 --> 00:01:41.819 that's going to basically make what the executive order that Trump put in as law. 33 00:01:42.019 --> 00:01:43.341 And he's a Democrat from California. 34 00:01:44.101 --> 00:01:47.504 So this week has been very, very good for Trump politically. 35 00:01:48.345 --> 00:01:54.310 But as always with Trump, he always has to go and spoil it with stupid things like a 36 00:01:54.310 --> 00:01:56.310 free plane and all the other stuff. 37 00:01:56.310 --> 00:01:56.392 And look, I mean. 38 00:01:56.592 --> 00:01:58.874 even the stuff with South Africans, I mean, that's obviously a big deal. 39 00:01:58.875 --> 00:02:00.776 I mean, I don't know if you've reached you guys. 40 00:02:00.796 --> 00:02:02.357 I saw them disembarking. 41 00:02:02.397 --> 00:02:03.758 Yeah, they looked a bit lost, I must say. 42 00:02:03.778 --> 00:02:04.959 But we'll come to that in a moment. 43 00:02:05.600 --> 00:02:07.361 But anyway, that was very strange. 44 00:02:08.422 --> 00:02:11.184 But even with that, I mean, that has no material effect. 45 00:02:11.705 --> 00:02:18.090 But I think with him, it is kind of like, it shows the right support to his base, 46 00:02:18.090 --> 00:02:18.270 you know, 47 00:02:18.911 --> 00:02:20.692 and you know what that base wants to see, you know what I mean? 48 00:02:21.313 --> 00:02:23.394 Brown people out, white people in, that kind of thing. 49 00:02:24.816 --> 00:02:28.558 but it it distracts from you know the craziness that's happening with things 50 00:02:28.558 --> 00:02:28.839 like the 51 00:02:28.839 --> 00:02:32.021 plane but like i said a very good week when politically uh 52 00:02:32.022 --> 00:02:38.865 internationally basically he's got the uh like the the procedure of the india 53 00:02:38.865 --> 00:02:40.865 pakistan thing uh domestically he's 54 00:02:40.865 --> 00:02:42.428 done the the executive order on drug prices and 55 00:02:42.448 --> 00:02:49.233 by the way it's gonna do almost nothing to us drug prices because it's basically they 56 00:02:49.233 --> 00:02:51.233 get the majority of money from the us all it's gonna do is it's gonna make 57 00:02:51.233 --> 00:02:55.237 europe and everyone else in the world pay more because these guys are not gonna drop 58 00:02:55.237 --> 00:02:57.237 their trousers in the us to match what they pay elsewhere. 59 00:02:57.237 --> 00:02:59.259 They are going to say, we're going to raise our prices everywhere to match what 60 00:02:59.259 --> 00:03:01.259 we pay in the US. 61 00:03:01.259 --> 00:03:03.259 Because that's where the money comes from. 62 00:03:03.259 --> 00:03:05.259 Okay. 63 00:03:05.259 --> 00:03:07.243 Like I said, the hundreds of billions of deals he's doing for Boeing, and like I 64 00:03:07.243 --> 00:03:09.243 said to you guys before, 65 00:03:09.243 --> 00:03:12.286 whoever is the lobbyist for Boeing at the moment is the best guy for money lobbyist 66 00:03:12.286 --> 00:03:14.286 in the world. 67 00:03:14.286 --> 00:03:17.449 Doesn't matter how much they're getting paid, these guys are making unbelievable 68 00:03:17.449 --> 00:03:19.449 returns on their investment. 69 00:03:19.449 --> 00:03:21.449 Yes, okay. 70 00:03:21.449 --> 00:03:23.449 We've got the number, and the numbers keep on changing. 71 00:03:23.449 --> 00:03:25.449 He said, they say 210 aeroplanes. 72 00:03:25.449 --> 00:03:31.171 with options on others or is it 150 with options on 60 more etc but nothing yet 73 00:03:31.171 --> 00:03:33.171 it's a number and with with trump he's 74 00:03:33.171 --> 00:03:37.894 very very loose with with his numbers he didn't know how many billions it was that 75 00:03:37.894 --> 00:03:39.894 it was being earned he got all 76 00:03:39.894 --> 00:03:42.576 confused with it but anyway he doesn't deal in billions anymore he deals in 77 00:03:42.576 --> 00:03:44.576 trillions he's 78 00:03:44.576 --> 00:03:49.579 always throwing that around but anyway let's say that he's got a good week and 79 00:03:49.579 --> 00:03:51.579 you haven't mentioned syria yet but quickly on that one because 80 00:03:51.579 --> 00:03:55.485 that came from nowhere Look, I mean, The Syria thing, look, I mean, 81 00:03:55.865 --> 00:03:59.207 in that part of the world, you're not going to find anyone to pay hands, okay? 82 00:03:59.947 --> 00:04:02.628 The best you can hope for is somebody to keep the peace. 83 00:04:03.369 --> 00:04:08.491 And if you carry on basically pushing, you know, like this unrest in Syria, you're 84 00:04:08.491 --> 00:04:08.631 going to find, 85 00:04:08.631 --> 00:04:10.992 you're not going to get something better than this guy. 86 00:04:11.292 --> 00:04:17.295 Even though he's an ISIS, former ISIS member, former, you know, 10 million 87 00:04:17.295 --> 00:04:19.295 dollar thing, 88 00:04:19.295 --> 00:04:21.295 you've got to... 89 00:04:21.295 --> 00:04:25.951 puts a strongman in place and i mean you can even argue please people like qaddafi 90 00:04:25.951 --> 00:04:27.951 people like saddam as bad as they were came 91 00:04:27.951 --> 00:04:32.918 after was worse you know what i mean um so the question now is do you want to keep uh 92 00:04:32.918 --> 00:04:34.918 you know get some kind of government in syria 93 00:04:34.918 --> 00:04:39.745 going if you want then you have to have this kind of deal being made unfortunately 94 00:04:39.745 --> 00:04:41.745 uh this guy's not a good guy uh but what's 95 00:04:41.745 --> 00:04:44.669 your options what's the options there's no other options besides this kind of guy 96 00:04:44.669 --> 00:04:46.669 Yeah, I mean, he's better than Assad. 97 00:04:46.669 --> 00:04:48.071 And maybe he has over the last 10 years since he had that bounty on his head. 98 00:04:48.131 --> 00:04:51.673 Maybe he has moderated his views towards the West. 99 00:04:51.933 --> 00:04:52.633 I don't know. 100 00:04:52.633 --> 00:04:58.877 But we'll come to Syria in a moment because the reason it's Syria and not 101 00:04:58.877 --> 00:05:00.877 Yemen is because Yemen doesn't have anything and Syria does. 102 00:05:00.877 --> 00:05:04.280 And Saudi Arabia and America want the rights to explore in Syria. 103 00:05:04.440 --> 00:05:05.140 Simple as that. 104 00:05:05.140 --> 00:05:11.143 David, now over to you with maybe a slightly different view to what's happened 105 00:05:11.143 --> 00:05:13.143 this week with Donald J. 106 00:05:13.143 --> 00:05:15.143 Trump. 107 00:05:15.143 --> 00:05:15.587 I think the biggest winners this week have been Saudi Arabia and Qatar. 108 00:05:15.588 --> 00:05:16.288 Yes. 109 00:05:16.328 --> 00:05:22.253 And I think by a long shot, you know, if you go back a decade or so ago, I mean, 110 00:05:22.313 --> 00:05:26.957 these were nations that were marginalized, you know, because of their political 111 00:05:26.957 --> 00:05:28.957 beliefs. 112 00:05:28.957 --> 00:05:29.439 Qatar, I think, until about last year. 113 00:05:29.963 --> 00:05:35.287 harbored the leaders from Hamas and other places, 114 00:05:35.647 --> 00:05:41.291 and they were funders of a lot of anti-West activists. 115 00:05:42.352 --> 00:05:45.694 So they've got credibility out of all of this. 116 00:05:47.035 --> 00:05:52.719 Certainly Saudi Arabia has grown a lot, and I think they might be credited in 117 00:05:52.719 --> 00:05:54.719 where they're going and what they're doing. 118 00:05:54.719 --> 00:05:56.642 But remember, this is still a nation where it's a kingdom. 119 00:05:57.342 --> 00:05:58.343 It's not a democracy. 120 00:06:00.612 --> 00:06:05.734 and not that I object to it, I don't know enough about those politics, 121 00:06:05.794 --> 00:06:10.336 but with Trump there's always some gain for him, as you mentioned, Lindsay. 122 00:06:10.416 --> 00:06:17.299 I don't think he goes in there without any gain, and coming behind him, of course, 123 00:06:17.299 --> 00:06:19.299 are the family, you know, 124 00:06:19.299 --> 00:06:24.163 and a lot of deals will be done with Qatar, with Saudi Arabia, with the Trump 125 00:06:24.163 --> 00:06:26.163 organization and its various branches, 126 00:06:26.163 --> 00:06:28.163 whether it's... 127 00:06:28.163 --> 00:06:31.926 golf tournaments, whether it's new hotels, I don't know, casinos, whatever it is, but 128 00:06:31.926 --> 00:06:33.926 that you can expect. 129 00:06:33.926 --> 00:06:35.926 And I think that's a side of him. 130 00:06:35.926 --> 00:06:37.926 It's deals, deals, deals. 131 00:06:37.926 --> 00:06:40.250 A lot of these are, you know, a lot of this is talk. 132 00:06:40.350 --> 00:06:44.832 They still have to be translated into real money. 133 00:06:45.252 --> 00:06:50.814 And we've seen this in so many times in the past where delegations, especially in 134 00:06:50.814 --> 00:06:50.815 South Africa, 135 00:06:50.854 --> 00:06:52.355 we always have delegations here. 136 00:06:52.715 --> 00:06:59.661 that are coming to make investments and so on and we always highlight this and 137 00:06:59.661 --> 00:07:01.661 nothing ever happens so i think there is a lot 138 00:07:01.661 --> 00:07:06.627 of bluster around this i'm not going to take away from where uh they govern you 139 00:07:06.627 --> 00:07:08.627 know where it is kingdom type deals which 140 00:07:08.627 --> 00:07:13.472 is the boeing deal that um you know that we've spoke about i think those things 141 00:07:13.472 --> 00:07:15.472 would be real and the military side of us 142 00:07:15.472 --> 00:07:20.418 as well but anyway listen i'm i i must say that whatever the reason i'm i'm a lot 143 00:07:20.458 --> 00:07:25.792 happier than i was two weeks ago you know with the markers back where they were on 144 00:07:25.792 --> 00:07:27.792 on february the 145 00:07:27.792 --> 00:07:28.853 first i'll say i can take that for the meantime but 146 00:07:29.613 --> 00:07:36.515 lindsay just just you've got to understand and i think this is a man who's completely 147 00:07:36.635 --> 00:07:39.096 trashed the constitution everything 148 00:07:39.097 --> 00:07:45.957 he does is for himself and i don't think there's any checks in order uh stopping 149 00:07:45.957 --> 00:07:47.957 him doing these 150 00:07:47.957 --> 00:07:51.339 kind of business deals and doing what he's doing in every respect without using 151 00:07:51.339 --> 00:07:53.339 congress i don't know 152 00:07:53.339 --> 00:07:55.339 I haven't seen Congress sitting. 153 00:07:55.339 --> 00:07:57.381 I don't know, you know, I don't even know if they're gathering at the moment because 154 00:07:57.381 --> 00:07:59.381 everything's just 155 00:07:59.381 --> 00:08:00.502 bumbled through and no one dares to object to him. 156 00:08:00.542 --> 00:08:03.503 So I'm still very cautious. 157 00:08:04.623 --> 00:08:06.103 I'm happy with the market. 158 00:08:06.104 --> 00:08:07.624 I'm saying, please, Margaret, don't go down. 159 00:08:07.684 --> 00:08:10.645 Just be unhappy, but don't go down, you know. 160 00:08:11.565 --> 00:08:18.467 And I think we saw Walmart's numbers coming out today as well, and I think 161 00:08:18.467 --> 00:08:20.467 that's starting to give a reflection. 162 00:08:20.467 --> 00:08:24.361 of the fears that are building, you know, because remember, you're still paying 163 00:08:24.361 --> 00:08:24.401 tariffs. 164 00:08:24.782 --> 00:08:26.782 You're still paying 30% tariffs in China. 165 00:08:27.203 --> 00:08:28.663 There's still going to be a lot of tariffs. 166 00:08:28.664 --> 00:08:31.184 And it's still only a 90-day period as well, David. 167 00:08:31.384 --> 00:08:32.865 I mean, this is 90 days. 168 00:08:32.925 --> 00:08:34.286 Why does he always say 90 days? 169 00:08:34.306 --> 00:08:35.666 Why can't we go a little bit further? 170 00:08:35.686 --> 00:08:38.528 Why can't we expand to six months or something? 171 00:08:38.748 --> 00:08:43.790 Or just have no time limit at all, just be happy with 30%, which is still huge, in my 172 00:08:43.790 --> 00:08:43.970 opinion. 173 00:08:44.310 --> 00:08:45.971 It's still a massive, massive amount. 174 00:08:46.191 --> 00:08:48.992 I mean, instead of paying 101 for something, 175 00:08:49.492 --> 00:08:53.973 you're paying 130 or whatever the conversion rate is and putting it in 176 00:08:53.973 --> 00:08:54.254 dollars. 177 00:08:54.254 --> 00:08:56.254 But no, it's still very, very high. 178 00:08:56.674 --> 00:08:59.535 But OK, so David's slightly cautious. 179 00:08:59.635 --> 00:09:02.335 Viv, great week for Trump, the best he's ever had. 180 00:09:02.355 --> 00:09:04.436 But on paper, can it be followed through? 181 00:09:04.696 --> 00:09:05.936 Never going to admit it. 182 00:09:07.217 --> 00:09:08.237 No, of course you're not. 183 00:09:08.297 --> 00:09:08.997 Nor will I. 184 00:09:08.997 --> 00:09:09.457 No. 185 00:09:10.538 --> 00:09:14.959 Objectively, it's the best week he's had since he's basically eaten a second time. 186 00:09:15.019 --> 00:09:21.883 the second time you're quite right on paper okay um why why 187 00:09:21.884 --> 00:09:27.906 why he doesn't want to get a long-term deal long-term deal makes him irrelevant 188 00:09:27.906 --> 00:09:29.906 yeah that's true makes him always 189 00:09:29.906 --> 00:09:33.570 the the person that you have to talk to the gatekeeper he spoke to the 190 00:09:33.610 --> 00:09:40.534 qatar military or the american military based in qatar which is their biggest base 191 00:09:40.534 --> 00:09:42.534 i think in the in well certainly in the region and 192 00:09:42.534 --> 00:09:42.735 he said I've won three elections. 193 00:09:44.468 --> 00:09:47.349 He said he won three elections and they want me to have a fourth. 194 00:09:47.350 --> 00:09:52.091 And the best selling cap at the moment is Trump 2028. 195 00:09:52.092 --> 00:09:53.851 And I really believe that this is going to happen. 196 00:09:53.951 --> 00:09:55.512 And it was a very strange speech. 197 00:09:55.592 --> 00:09:59.494 Kept on going on about his son, Barron, saying he must interview this person. 198 00:09:59.554 --> 00:10:01.174 David, you were watching this. 199 00:10:01.414 --> 00:10:02.255 Viv doesn't watch TV. 200 00:10:03.235 --> 00:10:05.216 David, you were probably watching this. 201 00:10:05.976 --> 00:10:09.778 It was babblingly incoherent, as usual, but still quite entertaining. 202 00:10:09.998 --> 00:10:11.699 That's the point I'm making. 203 00:10:11.879 --> 00:10:12.719 Yeah, it's a man. 204 00:10:13.479 --> 00:10:17.867 where the Constitution, where the law has said he lost the election. 205 00:10:18.047 --> 00:10:19.490 He will not accept it. 206 00:10:20.852 --> 00:10:21.552 He will not. 207 00:10:21.994 --> 00:10:26.743 And every interview that he has, if a person asks it, from whatever news... 208 00:10:27.323 --> 00:10:29.904 you know, from whatever media, 209 00:10:30.264 --> 00:10:34.945 he will deny and continues to say he won the 2020 election. 210 00:10:35.345 --> 00:10:39.987 And, of course, his attitude on 6th of January and that, that will also be 211 00:10:39.987 --> 00:10:39.987 dismissed. 212 00:10:39.988 --> 00:10:41.687 That was one of his first actions. 213 00:10:41.688 --> 00:10:48.429 The man who treasures, who has no respect for, you know, for the Constitution or for 214 00:10:48.429 --> 00:10:50.429 law and, 215 00:10:50.429 --> 00:10:52.429 you know, the laws of the country. 216 00:10:52.429 --> 00:10:54.429 And that, to me, is a deep worry. 217 00:10:54.429 --> 00:10:56.429 And at the moment, these successes just. 218 00:10:56.429 --> 00:11:01.253 There's just so much happening that no one can actually, I don't think the law courts 219 00:11:01.253 --> 00:11:03.253 can actually get on top of everything that they bring against him. 220 00:11:03.253 --> 00:11:04.694 But anyway, so yeah, he won the election. 221 00:11:04.754 --> 00:11:06.755 I mean, yeah, it is strange, isn't it? 222 00:11:06.756 --> 00:11:10.576 He just doesn't accept it. 223 00:11:10.577 --> 00:11:11.277 It is. 224 00:11:11.277 --> 00:11:11.577 Thank you, Michael. 225 00:11:11.577 --> 00:11:18.378 Now, I don't know who wants to take this, but suddenly we've got a few things coming 226 00:11:18.378 --> 00:11:20.378 out of the JSC process and NASPES, both on the back foot, 227 00:11:20.378 --> 00:11:22.378 having been on the front foot yesterday. 228 00:11:22.378 --> 00:11:24.378 It was something to do with an acquisition by process, I think. 229 00:11:24.378 --> 00:11:29.522 uh we've also got had news out from bala world sanlam afrimat and a company called 230 00:11:29.522 --> 00:11:31.522 karu with five o's 231 00:11:31.522 --> 00:11:36.425 in the name does anyone want to pick up on any of those results are they of any 232 00:11:36.425 --> 00:11:38.425 consequence to either of you in your portfolios or did 233 00:11:38.425 --> 00:11:40.046 they interest you in any way and you can say no david 234 00:11:40.406 --> 00:11:47.329 you know if you i when when i look at ppc for example i know that there's new 235 00:11:47.329 --> 00:11:49.329 management there and a lot of the gains that they're 236 00:11:49.329 --> 00:11:54.281 making are from efficiencies um I think the same thing applies to a large extent 237 00:11:54.281 --> 00:11:56.281 with AfriMath. 238 00:11:56.281 --> 00:11:59.366 These businesses are battling in an economy that's not going anywhere and not 239 00:11:59.366 --> 00:12:01.366 helping them at all. 240 00:12:01.366 --> 00:12:05.511 How can you have a cement business where nobody wants cement, 241 00:12:05.751 --> 00:12:09.975 where the government is not doing anything that creates demand for cement? 242 00:12:10.375 --> 00:12:15.539 I think it's something I've been quoting quite a lot over the last couple of days. 243 00:12:15.579 --> 00:12:20.003 When you look at the unemployment numbers, 244 00:12:21.371 --> 00:12:23.152 it's come down to very easy figures. 245 00:12:23.632 --> 00:12:30.514 For every three people who are, what's the word, work-worthy, are employable, 246 00:12:30.734 --> 00:12:31.674 is the word I want to use. 247 00:12:32.054 --> 00:12:33.695 Two are employed, one is not employed. 248 00:12:33.855 --> 00:12:35.775 Officially, of course. 249 00:12:35.835 --> 00:12:41.157 That takes up 24 million people in the country of a country that has got 60-odd 250 00:12:41.157 --> 00:12:41.357 million. 251 00:12:41.777 --> 00:12:46.758 So it means that those employed have to not only keep those who are unemployed, 252 00:12:47.058 --> 00:12:48.819 plus their extended families going. 253 00:12:49.239 --> 00:12:52.920 what it means is that there's not enough money to grow this economy. 254 00:12:52.940 --> 00:12:54.401 You know, everything goes on. 255 00:12:54.402 --> 00:12:55.102 Yeah. 256 00:12:55.102 --> 00:12:59.682 So, you know, I'm saying… It's good to be government workers. 257 00:12:59.683 --> 00:13:00.642 It's good to be government workers. 258 00:13:01.182 --> 00:13:05.584 We have the biggest government sector in the world per capita, given the size of 259 00:13:05.584 --> 00:13:05.885 our GDP. 260 00:13:06.224 --> 00:13:12.166 So of the people that are employed, the biggest chunk or single chunk of that is 261 00:13:12.166 --> 00:13:14.166 basically government workers, 262 00:13:14.166 --> 00:13:15.847 who are the most overpaid government workers in the world in terms of the GDP. 263 00:13:17.087 --> 00:13:21.471 And, you know, obviously our net draws on the fiscus as opposed to basically, you 264 00:13:21.471 --> 00:13:21.932 know, 265 00:13:21.932 --> 00:13:25.734 contributing to tax revenue and that kind of stuff. 266 00:13:26.975 --> 00:13:31.980 It's bloated and politically it doesn't force its hand, if you like. 267 00:13:31.981 --> 00:13:34.161 Am I saying this correctly? 268 00:13:34.442 --> 00:13:37.885 Because any other country would say, look what you've done. 269 00:13:37.925 --> 00:13:43.109 And there would be a doge type effect and someone would come in and slash and people 270 00:13:43.109 --> 00:13:45.109 would accept it. 271 00:13:45.109 --> 00:13:45.351 And they said, yes, but of course you can't accept it. 272 00:13:45.511 --> 00:13:47.873 when it's a family member that is being cut. 273 00:13:48.213 --> 00:13:50.635 So it's a very strange situation. 274 00:13:51.015 --> 00:13:56.559 And the government of national unity dynamic over the next year, especially 275 00:13:56.559 --> 00:13:58.559 with the budget coming out. 276 00:13:58.559 --> 00:14:00.559 When's the budget? 277 00:14:00.559 --> 00:14:01.523 Oh, no, that's not until, that's ages away, yeah. 278 00:14:02.103 --> 00:14:04.164 To prove version number three of the cabinet. 279 00:14:04.365 --> 00:14:05.065 Yeah, that's it. 280 00:14:05.065 --> 00:14:06.146 So that's got to be whatever. 281 00:14:06.226 --> 00:14:13.171 But, Lindsay, the other point is there are 3.8 million unemployed young people. 282 00:14:14.527 --> 00:14:17.408 You know, that they will never get jobs. 283 00:14:17.928 --> 00:14:23.411 That means that you're going to have to keep them from the age of 20 right through 284 00:14:23.411 --> 00:14:25.411 to 60, 70, 80. 285 00:14:25.411 --> 00:14:26.732 And why I bring this up is that, you know, 286 00:14:26.752 --> 00:14:33.315 we're going there with an aggressive nature or aggressive approach to America. 287 00:14:33.895 --> 00:14:37.136 I'm saying if I was a Ramaphosa, I would go and say, please help us. 288 00:14:37.876 --> 00:14:39.637 Please help us grow this economy. 289 00:14:40.638 --> 00:14:47.340 that just help us, instead of trying to act as though we've got everything under 290 00:14:47.340 --> 00:14:49.340 control here, which we haven't, 291 00:14:49.340 --> 00:14:50.001 and criticize some of their responses. 292 00:14:50.061 --> 00:14:53.163 I don't care about those 49 farmers who have gone across there. 293 00:14:53.543 --> 00:14:54.243 It's symbolic. 294 00:14:54.243 --> 00:14:55.944 It means nothing in my life. 295 00:14:56.664 --> 00:14:58.625 It's the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. 296 00:14:59.165 --> 00:15:00.265 But nevertheless, 297 00:15:03.407 --> 00:15:04.607 it is in a way symbolic. 298 00:15:04.627 --> 00:15:09.109 But what I'm saying, when you go to America or to the West, I would rather 299 00:15:09.109 --> 00:15:11.109 say, listen, help us. 300 00:15:11.109 --> 00:15:13.109 We need help. 301 00:15:13.109 --> 00:15:15.109 We're in a dire situation. 302 00:15:15.109 --> 00:15:17.109 We can't go on like this. 303 00:15:17.109 --> 00:15:18.605 without fixed investments, without fixing up our economy, you know, without, 304 00:15:19.347 --> 00:15:24.779 when I say fixing the infrastructure and creating the environment which we can 305 00:15:24.779 --> 00:15:26.779 actually promise. 306 00:15:26.779 --> 00:15:30.548 more jobs particularly to those young people but unfortunately South Africa 307 00:15:30.548 --> 00:15:32.548 doesn't have anything that's unique that 308 00:15:32.548 --> 00:15:38.170 American needs for example I mean Ukraine uh Trump has worked out that they've got 309 00:15:38.170 --> 00:15:40.170 stuff in the ground that will be very 310 00:15:40.170 --> 00:15:43.271 very scarce and at the moment is dominated by China rare Earths and all that sort of 311 00:15:43.271 --> 00:15:45.271 thing uh but 312 00:15:45.271 --> 00:15:50.173 South Africa what what have we got Viv have we got any unique selling point that 313 00:15:50.173 --> 00:15:52.173 Trump might say yeah let's do a deal 314 00:15:52.173 --> 00:15:56.813 yes we are um we are one of the most important places in the world 315 00:15:56.813 --> 00:15:58.813 geographically because look 316 00:15:58.813 --> 00:16:00.076 at where south africa is we are basically the the dividing 317 00:16:00.096 --> 00:16:06.902 line between the indian and the atlantic oceans so whoever has a base let's just 318 00:16:06.902 --> 00:16:08.902 say the chinese somehow get a base in south africa uh 319 00:16:08.902 --> 00:16:13.628 naval bases in africa they control effectively moving between uh europe and 320 00:16:13.628 --> 00:16:15.628 asia quite frankly think about it 321 00:16:15.628 --> 00:16:16.310 from that point of view but remember all 322 00:16:16.311 --> 00:16:21.114 the oil tankers still go around They then shift through his canal. 323 00:16:21.602 --> 00:16:27.946 they've got to take you know they might not stop in cape town as they used to do 324 00:16:27.946 --> 00:16:29.946 they might not refuel but they still go around it 325 00:16:29.946 --> 00:16:35.431 yeah it's a it's a key geographic thing i'm amazed that i mean geographically we 326 00:16:35.431 --> 00:16:37.431 are very very important uh but 327 00:16:37.431 --> 00:16:41.896 also i mean if you look at uh the chinese here and and and what they're doing with 328 00:16:41.896 --> 00:16:43.896 regards to not just i just saw 329 00:16:43.896 --> 00:16:47.860 this thing with regards to battery power and how they have basically managed to get 330 00:16:47.860 --> 00:16:49.860 actually prices down unbelievably like you Like, you know, 331 00:16:49.860 --> 00:16:50.882 they're like 80 plus percent down the last 10 years. 332 00:16:51.458 --> 00:16:53.960 in terms of kilowatt hours and stuff for these batteries that Chinese are making. 333 00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:57.002 The Chinese are really advancing quite fast. 334 00:16:57.062 --> 00:17:01.065 And even looking at what happened in India and Pakistan, right? 335 00:17:01.085 --> 00:17:05.108 The Pakistanis shot down a bunch of Indian planes, which was a surprise. 336 00:17:05.248 --> 00:17:11.372 And that kind of gives, like, you know, credence to the fact that the Chinese 337 00:17:11.372 --> 00:17:13.372 military equipment is a lot better than people thought it was. 338 00:17:13.372 --> 00:17:16.756 Because those planes, those Indian planes that they bought from the French, of 339 00:17:16.756 --> 00:17:18.756 course, they're not American planes, they're RPLs, apparently. 340 00:17:18.756 --> 00:17:20.756 They're French planes. 341 00:17:20.756 --> 00:17:25.421 but the fact that the Pakistan is able to budget them down, you know, indicates that 342 00:17:25.421 --> 00:17:27.421 the Chinese tech is very, 343 00:17:27.421 --> 00:17:29.421 very good at the moment. 344 00:17:29.421 --> 00:17:31.421 Okay, so we've got position, position, position. 345 00:17:31.421 --> 00:17:35.327 All right, I don't see over the decades anyone mentioning that, but Viv, call 346 00:17:35.327 --> 00:17:37.327 yourself an information pioneer in that regard. 347 00:17:37.327 --> 00:17:40.729 Now then, let's have a look at some prices here because it's a relatively quiet day. 348 00:17:40.730 --> 00:17:42.290 In fact, very quiet indeed. 349 00:17:43.271 --> 00:17:47.553 Dollar Rand is 18.09, 18.07 actually. 350 00:17:47.633 --> 00:17:48.754 British pound against the Rand. 351 00:17:49.034 --> 00:17:55.579 is 24.01 euro round is 2023 euro dollar 1195 barely changed 352 00:17:56.139 --> 00:18:03.105 uh commodities the gold price having another bad day uh 3210 which is down 18 353 00:18:03.105 --> 00:18:05.105 dollars per ounce 354 00:18:05.105 --> 00:18:10.070 actually it bounced back late last night from below 3200 to above it but still 300 355 00:18:10.070 --> 00:18:12.070 away from the all-time 356 00:18:12.070 --> 00:18:15.254 high not that long ago what else we got here uh the crude oil price 357 00:18:15.934 --> 00:18:20.858 Everyone's interested in that as well as natural gas as we start to prepare for 358 00:18:20.858 --> 00:18:21.078 winter. 359 00:18:21.579 --> 00:18:25.082 I haven't even got summer yet but you know what I mean with stocks and stuff. 360 00:18:25.462 --> 00:18:30.566 Okay I've got a problem with my CRB index but here we go. 361 00:18:30.646 --> 00:18:35.510 Brent crude oil $64.10 per barrel, down 3%, big one there. 362 00:18:35.890 --> 00:18:39.253 And West Texas crude $61.19 which is down 363 00:18:39.894 --> 00:18:45.018 3.1%. Natural gas price is down two and a half percent so the energy complex really 364 00:18:45.018 --> 00:18:47.018 getting whacked. 365 00:18:47.018 --> 00:18:47.799 Bitcoin also not having such a good day. 366 00:18:47.800 --> 00:18:50.921 It was close to 105,000 yesterday and the day before. 367 00:18:51.362 --> 00:18:54.043 Currently just over 102,000. 368 00:18:54.323 --> 00:19:00.887 South African 10-year bond yield is 10.72%. And the U.S. 10-year, 369 00:19:00.888 --> 00:19:05.830 4.46%, was above 450 this time yesterday. 370 00:19:06.090 --> 00:19:12.854 S&P 500 futures, 5908, which is unchanged from last night. 371 00:19:13.434 --> 00:19:18.197 was down 0.3% and is now more or less on its highs. 372 00:19:18.217 --> 00:19:20.398 Anyway, pretty quiet stuff. 373 00:19:20.999 --> 00:19:23.320 David, still happy, yeah? 374 00:19:24.120 --> 00:19:26.342 You know, it's rebubbling along. 375 00:19:26.402 --> 00:19:30.744 I think just the oil price down on the possible deal with Iran. 376 00:19:31.465 --> 00:19:33.986 So, you know, more oil will be pumped into the world. 377 00:19:34.006 --> 00:19:35.767 So I think it came down on that story. 378 00:19:36.688 --> 00:19:40.630 I think the other story is just briefly, there was a very tame PPI. 379 00:19:41.322 --> 00:19:44.564 in America, I think the lowest since in about five years. 380 00:19:45.044 --> 00:19:48.186 Also, some of the economic data, retail sales, manufacturing down, 381 00:19:48.206 --> 00:19:54.689 and that's why you've seen that move off from 450 in the 10-year bond down to 446. 382 00:19:55.110 --> 00:20:00.052 I think creeping in now, our view is that the Fed will start to reduce rates 383 00:20:00.933 --> 00:20:04.955 September, two now, two next year, two this year, two next year. 384 00:20:05.355 --> 00:20:08.277 And I think that's going to be the next thing we look forward to in the markets. 385 00:20:08.278 --> 00:20:11.659 and the one strong we settle down with Trump. 386 00:20:12.740 --> 00:20:19.724 Or maybe, Viv, the markets, these are the last of the Biden numbers and the Trump 387 00:20:19.724 --> 00:20:21.724 numbers will start coming soon, 388 00:20:21.724 --> 00:20:23.724 i.e. 389 00:20:23.724 --> 00:20:25.724 higher inflation, etc. 390 00:20:25.724 --> 00:20:29.471 Or maybe people are just not spending and that's also the demand side of the 391 00:20:29.471 --> 00:20:31.471 inflation equation is coming to the fore. 392 00:20:31.471 --> 00:20:33.471 I don't know. 393 00:20:33.471 --> 00:20:35.471 JSC today on the upside, Carew up three and three quarters percent. 394 00:20:35.471 --> 00:20:38.077 Pan-African Resources got hit yesterday, but up 2.8% today. 395 00:20:38.078 --> 00:20:39.538 the Impala Platinum 2.5. 396 00:20:40.034 --> 00:20:40.795 4% higher. 397 00:20:40.815 --> 00:20:42.556 Investec PLC up 2.25%. 398 00:20:43.097 --> 00:20:45.559 Anglo Gold, 2.25% higher. 399 00:20:45.579 --> 00:20:47.520 Gold shares have been really thumped recently. 400 00:20:47.521 --> 00:20:50.883 On the downside, Sassell, 4.6% weaker. 401 00:20:51.083 --> 00:20:52.645 Bytes down 4.6% as well. 402 00:20:53.165 --> 00:20:59.851 And Anglo American PLC down 3.6%. There was an article in Currency today, 403 00:20:59.851 --> 00:21:01.851 gentlemen, 404 00:21:01.851 --> 00:21:02.073 the online publication, 405 00:21:02.453 --> 00:21:07.938 talking about the JSE listings dearth being a cause for introspection. 406 00:21:08.258 --> 00:21:15.161 and it's dead david has been going on about this for years now well yes most 407 00:21:15.161 --> 00:21:17.161 certainly i mean the fact the matter 408 00:21:17.161 --> 00:21:22.144 is in south africa we are we are we are at worst in europe frankly in europe of 409 00:21:22.144 --> 00:21:24.144 course we have the companies that are still like stagnant but at 410 00:21:24.144 --> 00:21:28.046 least they're like you know there is some growth in terms of like you know uh those 411 00:21:28.046 --> 00:21:30.046 markets we in south africa have 412 00:21:30.046 --> 00:21:34.008 been quite quite uh you know badly uh hit by the fact that uh there's just no new 413 00:21:34.008 --> 00:21:36.008 listings happening and the ones that 414 00:21:36.008 --> 00:21:37.890 are happening are basically split-offs of companies that already exist like the 415 00:21:37.890 --> 00:21:39.890 boxes and and so on. 416 00:21:39.890 --> 00:21:41.832 Look, Lindsay, it's a massive subject. 417 00:21:42.672 --> 00:21:45.093 I was just asked questions yesterday on it. 418 00:21:45.933 --> 00:21:48.034 There's been a whole change in attitude as well. 419 00:21:48.274 --> 00:21:53.516 Look, the stock exchange hasn't exactly promoted share ownership. 420 00:21:53.936 --> 00:21:55.157 It's a public company. 421 00:21:55.757 --> 00:21:59.999 It's a business that's very focused on its bottom line and earnings and so on. 422 00:22:00.519 --> 00:22:05.841 So there hasn't been a push on their part to get new listings or to get ownership. 423 00:22:05.842 --> 00:22:07.422 You know, today, share ownership is... 424 00:22:07.862 --> 00:22:13.063 is largely through institutions, through holding ETFs or through tracker funds and 425 00:22:13.063 --> 00:22:13.223 so on. 426 00:22:13.223 --> 00:22:17.205 And that's taken a lot away from the local economy. 427 00:22:18.285 --> 00:22:24.747 But at the bottom of it as well is that we've got an economy that's going nowhere, 428 00:22:24.747 --> 00:22:26.747 as I mentioned earlier. 429 00:22:26.747 --> 00:22:27.427 There's no drive in this place. 430 00:22:27.428 --> 00:22:28.288 There's no momentum. 431 00:22:28.768 --> 00:22:35.070 And I don't know what Viv does, but I can't even put together 10 shares that I 432 00:22:35.070 --> 00:22:37.070 would buy in South Africa. 433 00:22:37.070 --> 00:22:41.432 The ones that you might go for might be some of the foreign companies. 434 00:22:41.472 --> 00:22:44.793 But even then, I think you can do better offshore. 435 00:22:44.933 --> 00:22:51.796 And the reason you have a South African portfolio is because you have forced to do 436 00:22:51.796 --> 00:22:53.796 it because of things like Regulation 28 or investors that want to have South 437 00:22:53.796 --> 00:22:55.796 African assets. 438 00:22:55.796 --> 00:22:55.978 But, yeah, unfortunately, the situation is quite bad at the moment. 439 00:22:56.538 --> 00:22:57.679 On that sad note, we'll end it. 440 00:22:57.779 --> 00:23:04.521 And I will say this, that the market has come full circle since the Liberation Day 441 00:23:04.521 --> 00:23:06.521 and before that, a few other words, 442 00:23:06.521 --> 00:23:08.521 caused such a sell-off. 443 00:23:08.521 --> 00:23:10.521 and such panic. 444 00:23:10.521 --> 00:23:12.521 We've now come full circle. 445 00:23:12.521 --> 00:23:14.521 As I said, it's been a complete 360. 446 00:23:14.521 --> 00:23:16.521 And the next five to 10% are going to be very, 447 00:23:16.521 --> 00:23:19.069 very interesting as the sell in May go away has worked in completely the opposite 448 00:23:19.069 --> 00:23:21.069 direction. 449 00:23:21.069 --> 00:23:23.069 It's not too late to start. 450 00:23:23.069 --> 00:23:25.069 It's only the 15th of May. 451 00:23:25.069 --> 00:23:25.354 So we have another couple of weeks to do that. 452 00:23:25.615 --> 00:23:30.739 But I stand by that the next five to 10% will be terribly important for the rest of 453 00:23:30.739 --> 00:23:31.079 the year. 454 00:23:31.079 --> 00:23:32.440 Gentlemen, thank you very much on this quiet day. 455 00:23:32.881 --> 00:23:34.202 Viv The governor is from Ransworth. 456 00:23:34.574 --> 00:23:37.315 David Shapiro from Sasser and Securities, both in Johannesburg. 457 00:23:37.635 --> 00:23:38.835 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 458 00:23:39.315 --> 00:23:46.257 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 459 00:23:46.257 --> 00:23:48.257 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 460 00:23:48.257 --> 00:23:49.998 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 461 00:23:50.338 --> 00:23:54.960 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 462 00:23:55.440 --> 00:24:02.402 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 463 00:24:02.402 --> 00:24:04.402 entity other than the speaker or the author. 464 00:24:04.402 --> 00:24:07.868 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 465 00:24:07.868 --> 00:24:07.987 change, 466 00:24:08.148 --> 00:24:10.711 revision and rethinking at any time. 467 00:24:11.031 --> 00:24:13.434 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.