WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.412 --> 00:00:05.314 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.315 --> 00:00:08.695 JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. 3 00:00:08.715 --> 00:00:14.978 And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG 4 00:00:14.978 --> 00:00:16.978 Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. 5 00:00:16.978 --> 00:00:18.978 We haven't spoken for a while, Skulk. 6 00:00:18.978 --> 00:00:19.920 And a while used to be just a while. 7 00:00:20.000 --> 00:00:23.121 And a while is a long while now, these days. 8 00:00:23.501 --> 00:00:25.822 And I just want to give you the backdrop of this. 9 00:00:25.862 --> 00:00:29.424 The gold price has gone from over £3,500 to... 10 00:00:30.004 --> 00:00:36.167 well built actually approaching 3100 at one stage and the S&P having been down 11 00:00:36.287 --> 00:00:37.147 17% 12 00:00:37.467 --> 00:00:44.410 for the year at its low is now unchanged slightly higher for the year so that's the 13 00:00:44.410 --> 00:00:46.410 background 14 00:00:46.410 --> 00:00:51.133 but let's get something else out the way and that was your conference of last week 15 00:00:51.133 --> 00:00:53.133 I saw lots of good things about it on social media did it go well? 16 00:00:53.133 --> 00:00:58.896 Yeah the PSG annual conference is that's usually a highlight of my 17 00:00:58.976 --> 00:00:59.676 year. 18 00:00:59.752 --> 00:01:04.013 And, you know, it's like some of these events. 19 00:01:04.173 --> 00:01:07.654 I mean, I can just use the epic, the Cape Epic. 20 00:01:07.694 --> 00:01:08.655 It's a mountain bike. 21 00:01:09.895 --> 00:01:14.996 They usually, every year you hear people say this year has been the toughest epic 22 00:01:14.996 --> 00:01:16.996 ever. 23 00:01:16.996 --> 00:01:17.917 And the next year they will say it's the toughest epic ever. 24 00:01:18.998 --> 00:01:24.559 And just like that, I mean, I would say this year was the best PSG conference 25 00:01:24.559 --> 00:01:26.559 ever. 26 00:01:26.559 --> 00:01:26.660 And this year I really felt them. 27 00:01:26.760 --> 00:01:28.661 that Wonderful speakers. 28 00:01:28.701 --> 00:01:30.362 I mean, the insights we've got. 29 00:01:30.842 --> 00:01:34.325 I mean, the whole theme was AI. 30 00:01:34.885 --> 00:01:35.585 Yes. 31 00:01:35.585 --> 00:01:39.828 And I was just mind-boggled of where we're in the cycle. 32 00:01:39.829 --> 00:01:43.091 You know, things we haven't even talked about five years ago. 33 00:01:43.431 --> 00:01:46.953 That's now sort of being seen as not only the norm, 34 00:01:47.033 --> 00:01:52.817 but if you don't embrace this future, you won't survive. 35 00:01:52.897 --> 00:01:56.940 But yeah, it was good. 36 00:01:57.040 --> 00:01:57.961 It was really, really good. 37 00:01:58.021 --> 00:02:02.003 Did you get the sense that AI is everywhere and we didn't know it was 38 00:02:02.003 --> 00:02:04.003 everywhere? 39 00:02:04.003 --> 00:02:06.705 Did you get the view that perhaps we're using AI when we don't know we are? 40 00:02:07.746 --> 00:02:08.826 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 41 00:02:09.006 --> 00:02:14.890 I mean, there was this one, let's call it presenter, 42 00:02:15.430 --> 00:02:17.491 who actually showed a photo. 43 00:02:18.111 --> 00:02:22.094 And I think it was five years ago, but it could be seven years. 44 00:02:22.114 --> 00:02:26.356 But anyway, it's a photo where they see... 45 00:02:26.836 --> 00:02:27.997 what was that animal? 46 00:02:28.597 --> 00:02:30.277 Let's say it was a cat, but it wasn't a cat. 47 00:02:30.778 --> 00:02:33.959 Cat using Wi-Fi on a plane. 48 00:02:34.519 --> 00:02:37.300 And then AI painted a picture. 49 00:02:37.640 --> 00:02:40.081 And this picture, in some cases, didn't have the plane. 50 00:02:40.522 --> 00:02:44.343 It was really, if you look at the picture now, you would think, oh, I'm in AI. 51 00:02:44.663 --> 00:02:45.704 But this is five years ago. 52 00:02:45.904 --> 00:02:52.647 Now you give AI that same command and it will have the finest 53 00:02:52.687 --> 00:02:53.387 detail. 54 00:02:53.387 --> 00:02:59.483 I mean, you can actually switch and say, where Kat using Bluetooth, and suddenly 55 00:02:59.483 --> 00:03:01.483 it's got these earbuds, 56 00:03:01.483 --> 00:03:03.246 and it's just unbelievable what AI can do. 57 00:03:03.306 --> 00:03:06.429 But I think this is sort of a playing around with AI. 58 00:03:06.569 --> 00:03:13.214 But to me, how AI has evolved over the past, let's call it two, three years, 59 00:03:13.695 --> 00:03:14.655 it's just unbelievable. 60 00:03:14.656 --> 00:03:18.459 And I'm actually sort of worried, you know, looking two, three years ahead. 61 00:03:18.699 --> 00:03:20.620 I mean, and we're not talking about 10 years. 62 00:03:20.640 --> 00:03:21.861 We're not talking about 30 years. 63 00:03:22.142 --> 00:03:23.363 We're talking about two, three years ahead. 64 00:03:23.563 --> 00:03:24.724 I mean, it's crazy. 65 00:03:24.924 --> 00:03:25.684 It's absolutely. 66 00:03:25.964 --> 00:03:26.705 But why are you worried? 67 00:03:26.725 --> 00:03:28.405 Is it because it's going to take care of your job? 68 00:03:28.445 --> 00:03:30.686 Is it because everybody is going to be doing the same thing? 69 00:03:30.706 --> 00:03:36.849 The same AI program is going to be employed by Morgan Stanley, every other 70 00:03:36.849 --> 00:03:38.849 financial institution, PSG, 71 00:03:38.849 --> 00:03:39.290 and they're all going to go in the same direction. 72 00:03:39.330 --> 00:03:41.311 And then we really do have chaos. 73 00:03:42.511 --> 00:03:47.313 No, I think I'm more the conspiracy theorist around AI, 74 00:03:47.893 --> 00:03:53.556 and that it definitely needs to be, what do you call it? 75 00:03:55.092 --> 00:03:59.775 properly, what is the word that I'm looking for? 76 00:04:00.095 --> 00:04:03.076 Regulated, supervised. 77 00:04:03.077 --> 00:04:03.777 Yeah, that's it. 78 00:04:03.777 --> 00:04:04.357 Yeah, it's supervised. 79 00:04:04.557 --> 00:04:08.579 It needs to, you can't just have an open mandate for this because this could be 80 00:04:08.579 --> 00:04:08.940 crazy. 81 00:04:08.940 --> 00:04:12.522 But do I think, and most of the speakers said, 82 00:04:13.042 --> 00:04:16.224 do they think this will take most of the people's jobs? 83 00:04:16.264 --> 00:04:21.366 No, I think, but the bottom line is if you don't embrace it, 84 00:04:22.047 --> 00:04:24.208 you will find yourself most probably without a job. 85 00:04:24.428 --> 00:04:27.649 So anyway, I just thought it was really, really good. 86 00:04:27.930 --> 00:04:33.932 There was a few really solid speakers on the current market environment, 87 00:04:34.192 --> 00:04:38.854 this whole tariffs, Trump, China, I mean, the current environment. 88 00:04:39.334 --> 00:04:40.075 And I must say, 89 00:04:41.956 --> 00:04:47.918 it's interesting to sit there and suddenly starting to hear words like stagflation 90 00:04:47.918 --> 00:04:49.918 more and more, 91 00:04:50.359 --> 00:04:51.480 economic worries. 92 00:04:51.680 --> 00:04:56.928 and How the whole world has went from a totally open world, I mean, 93 00:04:57.989 --> 00:05:00.651 not just in terms of movement, but in terms of trade. 94 00:05:00.891 --> 00:05:07.136 I mean, if you look at it, let's call it four or five years ago, the world was 95 00:05:07.136 --> 00:05:09.136 pretty open. 96 00:05:09.136 --> 00:05:11.136 I mean, let's call it pre-COVID, but open. 97 00:05:11.136 --> 00:05:12.520 You could move wherever you wanted to move. 98 00:05:12.600 --> 00:05:15.382 You could trade with whomever you want to trade. 99 00:05:16.423 --> 00:05:17.204 Trade was easy. 100 00:05:17.919 --> 00:05:19.700 Sadly, that's not the case. 101 00:05:20.140 --> 00:05:21.100 That's not the case. 102 00:05:21.860 --> 00:05:28.202 So, yeah, I thought it was a long-winded way of saying it was a really, really 103 00:05:28.202 --> 00:05:30.202 insightful conference. 104 00:05:30.202 --> 00:05:34.344 Well, it must have been if you learned something and if your mouth was agape at 105 00:05:34.344 --> 00:05:36.344 certain points, then it must have been very, very good indeed. 106 00:05:36.344 --> 00:05:38.344 So well done. 107 00:05:38.344 --> 00:05:39.625 Next year, you have a high bar to jump over. 108 00:05:39.725 --> 00:05:40.425 Right. 109 00:05:40.425 --> 00:05:45.326 Let's have a quick look at what you've just said there, because I got a CNBC 110 00:05:45.326 --> 00:05:47.326 newsletter thing which I get every day. 111 00:05:47.326 --> 00:05:49.326 And point number five. 112 00:05:49.326 --> 00:05:50.153 was with the headline, good at bad stuff, it says. 113 00:05:50.633 --> 00:05:56.056 Experts are sounding the alarm about the safety of artificial intelligence or the 114 00:05:56.056 --> 00:05:58.056 lack thereof. 115 00:05:58.056 --> 00:05:59.978 As companies like Meta, Google and OpenAI race to stay competitive, 116 00:06:00.378 --> 00:06:07.242 AI players have shifted from focusing on cutting edge research to prioritizing the 117 00:06:07.262 --> 00:06:13.646 development of revenue generating consumer ready AI services like the cat on a plane, 118 00:06:13.646 --> 00:06:15.646 Skulk. 119 00:06:15.646 --> 00:06:16.107 So it was a very good example that you gave us. 120 00:06:16.347 --> 00:06:22.630 In the process, it goes on to say, they're increasingly taking shortcuts when it 121 00:06:22.630 --> 00:06:24.630 comes to the safety testing of their models. 122 00:06:24.630 --> 00:06:29.454 Experts say the models are getting better, but they're also more likely to be good at 123 00:06:29.454 --> 00:06:31.454 bad stuff. 124 00:06:31.454 --> 00:06:32.156 That's what some industry insider said. 125 00:06:32.216 --> 00:06:33.877 So you make a very good point. 126 00:06:33.937 --> 00:06:35.097 So be careful. 127 00:06:35.137 --> 00:06:41.421 They're not just trying to make a fast buck in order to justify their enormous 128 00:06:41.421 --> 00:06:43.421 amount of R&D spend. 129 00:06:43.421 --> 00:06:43.622 They're also cutting some corners. 130 00:06:44.062 --> 00:06:45.063 Okay, S&P. 131 00:06:45.687 --> 00:06:48.989 Now, flat on the air, it's all been a big con job, hasn't it? 132 00:06:48.990 --> 00:06:51.570 A con job on the downside, a con job on the outside. 133 00:06:52.011 --> 00:06:58.074 Now, this whole boot-licking, sycophantic, bromance stuff between Saudi Arabia's 134 00:06:58.574 --> 00:07:00.695 MBS and Donald Trump. 135 00:07:01.116 --> 00:07:07.419 I had a sick bag next to me last night watching this conference in Riyadh. 136 00:07:07.420 --> 00:07:10.261 I mean, it's positive, I suppose, in many ways. 137 00:07:10.641 --> 00:07:14.323 But you can't tell me that all this is not because of bribes. 138 00:07:14.995 --> 00:07:21.559 And, and certainly maybe corruption's a little bit of a strong word, but there's 139 00:07:21.559 --> 00:07:23.559 something going on in the background. 140 00:07:23.559 --> 00:07:25.921 Aeroplanes flying here and there, 600 billion being invested everywhere. 141 00:07:26.422 --> 00:07:29.543 And a certain individual is certainly benefiting from it. 142 00:07:30.824 --> 00:07:33.206 Money talks, Lindsay, money talks. 143 00:07:33.366 --> 00:07:34.346 Shouts in this case. 144 00:07:34.426 --> 00:07:35.126 Yeah. 145 00:07:35.126 --> 00:07:40.390 Anyway, but we have been, we have been led along the garden path, I think, 146 00:07:40.391 --> 00:07:42.631 to a certain extent in 2025. 147 00:07:43.735 --> 00:07:45.696 Yeah, I think it's been an unbelievable year. 148 00:07:45.697 --> 00:07:51.019 I mean, you just mentioned we haven't had this podcast, or you and I haven't had the 149 00:07:51.859 --> 00:07:55.021 5 o'clock shadow for, I think it's two or three weeks. 150 00:07:56.002 --> 00:08:01.285 And, you know, three weeks, yeah, three weeks ago, when we last had this 151 00:08:01.285 --> 00:08:03.285 conversation, 152 00:08:03.285 --> 00:08:05.507 we were still very much in the aftermath of the first tariff announcements. 153 00:08:06.587 --> 00:08:12.671 In actual fact, it was just during that time where he, what he called, he paused. 154 00:08:13.972 --> 00:08:17.114 the tariffs until the, I think it was the 9th of July. 155 00:08:18.035 --> 00:08:19.776 So that's still very much in play. 156 00:08:19.957 --> 00:08:23.179 We know, you're talking about bromance. 157 00:08:23.239 --> 00:08:29.724 We know that, you know, that President Trump, well, he had this whole China 158 00:08:29.724 --> 00:08:31.724 conversation over the weekend. 159 00:08:31.724 --> 00:08:31.926 Oh, sorry. 160 00:08:32.407 --> 00:08:33.267 And Switzerland. 161 00:08:33.708 --> 00:08:36.670 And they called it a total reset. 162 00:08:38.492 --> 00:08:42.575 And both of them just went and reduced. 163 00:08:42.615 --> 00:08:44.056 reduce the tariffs. 164 00:08:44.716 --> 00:08:51.440 And, you know, some of these levies, as President Trump mentioned it, has been 165 00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:53.440 suspended, 166 00:08:53.440 --> 00:08:55.440 hasn't been canceled. 167 00:08:55.440 --> 00:08:57.440 It's just been suspended. 168 00:08:57.440 --> 00:09:00.165 And as by his own admittance, they might rise again in three months' 169 00:09:00.185 --> 00:09:03.426 time if no further progress is made. 170 00:09:04.447 --> 00:09:10.811 But for now, they don't see, President Trump don't see that it will return to the 171 00:09:10.811 --> 00:09:12.811 previous, let's call it, 145%. 172 00:09:12.811 --> 00:09:14.811 But, but... 173 00:09:14.811 --> 00:09:16.811 We saw the aftermath. 174 00:09:16.811 --> 00:09:18.811 The market loved it. 175 00:09:18.811 --> 00:09:20.811 I mean, really, really loved it. 176 00:09:20.811 --> 00:09:22.811 You just mentioned, you know, this is three weeks later. 177 00:09:22.811 --> 00:09:26.799 S&P went to one stage, was close to 20% down from its highs. 178 00:09:26.999 --> 00:09:33.883 Now trading very, very close, very, very much close back to its highs of February. 179 00:09:33.923 --> 00:09:37.605 I think by the current movement, most probably we'll move back. 180 00:09:37.645 --> 00:09:39.126 And what worries? 181 00:09:39.286 --> 00:09:39.986 I mean 182 00:09:41.375 --> 00:09:47.800 There's this graph that I just looked at and a graph between 183 00:09:48.821 --> 00:09:49.862 the they use the TLT, 184 00:09:50.022 --> 00:09:56.748 which is basically just the long bond ETF relative to the S&P 500 185 00:09:56.808 --> 00:09:57.508 ETF. 186 00:09:57.768 --> 00:10:04.233 Now, for the listeners out there, this is just literally where you put them 187 00:10:04.233 --> 00:10:06.233 relatively against each other. 188 00:10:06.233 --> 00:10:08.233 And over the past, let's go to three years. 189 00:10:08.233 --> 00:10:13.207 we just saw this graph move one direction that's upwards for for the s p 500 190 00:10:13.207 --> 00:10:15.207 basically showing a 191 00:10:15.207 --> 00:10:19.819 absolute risk on environment um to to a certain extent where where you actually 192 00:10:19.819 --> 00:10:21.819 get a 193 00:10:21.819 --> 00:10:24.570 This is a really overheated environment, which we saw in February. 194 00:10:24.650 --> 00:10:28.191 And then we got the tariff announcements. 195 00:10:28.471 --> 00:10:31.793 We had the aftermath, the big fighting between some of these countries. 196 00:10:32.333 --> 00:10:36.094 And I can still recall you and I had this conversation where I said, I mean, 197 00:10:36.795 --> 00:10:42.177 that's showing us a risk of how quickly did it go from a risk on to risk off. 198 00:10:42.237 --> 00:10:47.199 Well, if we look at that same graph, we're exactly back to the levels we've seen in 199 00:10:47.199 --> 00:10:47.440 February. 200 00:10:47.599 --> 00:10:48.299 Why? 201 00:10:48.299 --> 00:10:54.084 Because, well, post- tariff announcement the long bond rate although i'm talking 202 00:10:54.084 --> 00:10:56.084 about the 10-year 203 00:10:56.084 --> 00:10:56.266 rate went uh from 204 00:10:57.126 --> 00:11:03.152 close to the four percent levels to four and a half percent and as we said yeah 447 205 00:11:03.153 --> 00:11:10.058 448 yeah there we go that's it 4.5 i spoke to this bloke yesterday actually he said i 206 00:11:10.058 --> 00:11:12.058 he put this report out it was published on 207 00:11:12.058 --> 00:11:16.064 may the 6th and uh in the introduction it says this data was collated as of the end 208 00:11:16.064 --> 00:11:16.263 of 209 00:11:16.792 --> 00:11:18.753 March 2025. 210 00:11:18.754 --> 00:11:21.814 So I said, so it must be a bit difficult for you to write reports these days. 211 00:11:21.854 --> 00:11:26.356 Cause by the time you look at the data, it's got a certain data and it cuts off 212 00:11:26.356 --> 00:11:28.356 nothing after that. 213 00:11:28.356 --> 00:11:30.356 Then you publish it. 214 00:11:30.356 --> 00:11:32.356 And by that time it's out of date. 215 00:11:32.356 --> 00:11:35.019 He said, the amazing thing is Lindsay, that everything's exactly the same as it 216 00:11:35.019 --> 00:11:37.019 was on March the 31st. When I first, 217 00:11:37.019 --> 00:11:38.301 when I first made my conclusions, it's extraordinary. 218 00:11:39.721 --> 00:11:40.421 It is. 219 00:11:40.421 --> 00:11:40.982 It is. 220 00:11:40.982 --> 00:11:45.644 It's as if we just, you know, went, went away, you know, Trump made the 221 00:11:45.644 --> 00:11:45.825 announcements. 222 00:11:46.424 --> 00:11:53.030 And if you took a, let's call it, four-week holiday, or, yeah, a little bit 223 00:11:53.030 --> 00:11:55.030 more than a four-week holiday, and you came back, 224 00:11:55.030 --> 00:11:57.030 you would have said, what happened? 225 00:11:57.030 --> 00:11:59.275 Because everything has changed, but everything has changed, stayed the same. 226 00:12:00.676 --> 00:12:06.561 Yeah, I looked at a few, let's call it, things that happened in April and where we 227 00:12:06.561 --> 00:12:08.561 are currently at. 228 00:12:08.561 --> 00:12:13.767 I think beginning of April, we had the trade policy uncertainty and to a certain 229 00:12:13.767 --> 00:12:15.767 extent where we had some 230 00:12:15.767 --> 00:12:17.767 certainty of it. 231 00:12:17.767 --> 00:12:19.767 Now we back to. 232 00:12:19.767 --> 00:12:22.469 to being uncertain because we're still waiting for this for this uh pause now to 233 00:12:22.469 --> 00:12:24.469 unpause which will will only 234 00:12:24.469 --> 00:12:29.455 happen in july um we had a lot of investment banks um banks 235 00:12:29.976 --> 00:12:32.898 investment houses one of them being the imf uh 236 00:12:32.918 --> 00:12:39.663 that that downgraded to the the growth forecast uh for most of the of the 237 00:12:39.663 --> 00:12:41.663 countries, the U.S. 238 00:12:41.663 --> 00:12:43.663 included. 239 00:12:43.663 --> 00:12:44.307 We had many of these inflation concerns. 240 00:12:46.249 --> 00:12:49.511 We're sort of looking at interest rate cuts. 241 00:12:50.031 --> 00:12:50.731 And remember, 242 00:12:50.731 --> 00:12:57.276 we went into 2025 expecting at least three rate cuts for 243 00:12:57.277 --> 00:12:58.617 2025. 244 00:12:58.618 --> 00:12:59.658 And here we're sitting in May. 245 00:13:00.198 --> 00:13:01.179 We haven't seen one. 246 00:13:02.640 --> 00:13:05.682 I'm looking at the CME Fed tool, 247 00:13:05.842 --> 00:13:11.466 which gives us the probabilities of rate cuts for the different Fed meetings. 248 00:13:12.006 --> 00:13:16.330 and currently as we sit here it's close to 100%, more than 90% 249 00:13:16.331 --> 00:13:20.454 probability that we're going to see unchanged for June, more than 250 00:13:21.154 --> 00:13:23.817 90% probability it's going to be unchanged for July. 251 00:13:24.398 --> 00:13:29.803 And there's about a 50-50 chance, 50-50, that we'll only see the first one in 252 00:13:29.803 --> 00:13:30.043 September. 253 00:13:30.043 --> 00:13:31.384 And as we sit here, I think... 254 00:13:31.805 --> 00:13:37.210 I think they're wrong, given the fact that we got an inflation number of 2.3% 255 00:13:37.210 --> 00:13:39.210 yesterday, which was lower than expected, 256 00:13:39.210 --> 00:13:39.352 unless they have had a sneak look or... 257 00:13:39.832 --> 00:13:42.695 a good idea of what next month's CPI inflation will be. 258 00:13:42.795 --> 00:13:44.036 So, Skalk, I don't know about that. 259 00:13:44.416 --> 00:13:50.001 I reckon there's at least two this year, at least two cuts, that is. 260 00:13:50.041 --> 00:13:55.325 I would have said we still would have seen at least three if we look at the inflation 261 00:13:55.325 --> 00:13:57.325 that actually came down. 262 00:13:57.325 --> 00:14:00.209 Well, yes, 2.3, lowest level, just by the way, since February 2021. 263 00:14:00.210 --> 00:14:02.511 So, I mean, this is the lowest level in over four years. 264 00:14:03.172 --> 00:14:08.396 So you would have expected them to, well, at least when this came out. 265 00:14:08.516 --> 00:14:09.477 what it came out yesterday. 266 00:14:10.037 --> 00:14:10.738 When it came out, 267 00:14:11.538 --> 00:14:18.363 we would have seen at least the probability increase of a rate cut earlier 268 00:14:18.363 --> 00:14:20.363 than September. 269 00:14:20.363 --> 00:14:23.986 Well, as it stands, it's still very much September and they're still only expecting 270 00:14:23.986 --> 00:14:24.006 one. 271 00:14:24.026 --> 00:14:24.887 So I agree. 272 00:14:25.407 --> 00:14:31.391 But I mean, we've used the word uncertainty so many times in this podcast 273 00:14:31.391 --> 00:14:33.391 already. 274 00:14:33.391 --> 00:14:38.056 I think if we had a tequila every time we used the word uncertainty, I think you and 275 00:14:38.056 --> 00:14:40.056 I would have been, as we say in Afrikaans, poop 276 00:14:40.056 --> 00:14:44.880 drunk already so um you underestimate me but anyway um i said the uncertainty 277 00:14:44.920 --> 00:14:51.823 uncertainty uncertainty um so so but i mean yes i agree with you but but i've 278 00:14:51.863 --> 00:14:56.786 got no doubt in my mind no no doubt that remember 279 00:14:56.826 --> 00:15:03.510 if they if you unpause these tariffs and yes i don't think it will be to the extent 280 00:15:03.510 --> 00:15:05.510 that we've 281 00:15:05.510 --> 00:15:07.732 seen um with the first announcement i think it might 282 00:15:07.812 --> 00:15:14.096 be a tad softer but even a tad softer mrv will be inflation undoubtedly 283 00:15:16.177 --> 00:15:20.040 um well stack fashion conversation do we think that 284 00:15:20.640 --> 00:15:27.345 that growth will be better now because mr market is telling us well they're not too 285 00:15:27.345 --> 00:15:29.345 worried about the u.s growth 286 00:15:29.345 --> 00:15:34.211 anymore because s p 500 well we're back at at the high levels and you know some some 287 00:15:34.211 --> 00:15:36.211 of the companies like 288 00:15:36.211 --> 00:15:40.116 oldman sachs that came out yesterday and they they increased their forecast i think 289 00:15:40.116 --> 00:15:42.116 i increased it from originally they 290 00:15:42.116 --> 00:15:46.981 downgraded to four thousand five thousand eight hundred and i think now it's it's 291 00:15:46.981 --> 00:15:48.981 way over six thousand so many of these 292 00:15:48.981 --> 00:15:50.204 companies big investment and I said, well, things are looking better. 293 00:15:50.444 --> 00:15:54.746 I mean, I saw a commentator tweet, and I'm going to read it. 294 00:15:54.766 --> 00:15:56.687 Unfortunately, I didn't write the source. 295 00:15:57.027 --> 00:15:57.987 Please, sorry about that. 296 00:15:58.387 --> 00:16:03.389 Inflation lowest levels in four years. 297 00:16:03.829 --> 00:16:06.010 Gas falls for third month in a row. 298 00:16:06.230 --> 00:16:08.411 Air prices drop 12% in a month. 299 00:16:08.791 --> 00:16:10.692 Trade deals begin to take shape. 300 00:16:10.812 --> 00:16:14.674 Markets react to it all by surging. 301 00:16:15.194 --> 00:16:17.335 India, Pakistan reach a ceasefire. 302 00:16:17.575 --> 00:16:19.816 Putin-Zelensky meeting. 303 00:16:20.360 --> 00:16:27.302 meeting this week and he says so trump wrote this right i mean it sounds like it 304 00:16:27.302 --> 00:16:29.302 come on there's a grain of truth in 305 00:16:29.302 --> 00:16:33.624 all of it of course but we do know it's short term yes yes i i you know 306 00:16:34.364 --> 00:16:39.685 if somebody asked me today you know what do i what do i see in the market and 307 00:16:39.765 --> 00:16:46.647 i i sort of feel i see the i see i see the um i i hear the jaws theme song lindsey 308 00:16:46.807 --> 00:16:51.078 i mean i'm i'm strange when i I hear voices, but also this, 309 00:16:51.158 --> 00:16:54.240 because I hear theme song. 310 00:16:54.400 --> 00:17:00.806 And what I'm saying, for all the younger listeners out there, Jaws is a 1970s 311 00:17:00.806 --> 00:17:02.806 movie, the original one. 312 00:17:02.806 --> 00:17:07.772 And it always had this trailer, and the trailer sounded like a B-rated movie 313 00:17:07.772 --> 00:17:09.772 announcement. 314 00:17:09.772 --> 00:17:11.772 You always remember this. 315 00:17:11.772 --> 00:17:13.772 He was a man on a vengeance. 316 00:17:13.772 --> 00:17:15.772 He had something to prove. 317 00:17:15.772 --> 00:17:17.772 And Jaws was no different. 318 00:17:17.772 --> 00:17:17.780 They actually started off, just when you thought it. 319 00:17:17.781 --> 00:17:19.521 it was safe to go back in the water. 320 00:17:19.561 --> 00:17:21.562 And then the theme song started. 321 00:17:25.044 --> 00:17:26.925 I'm just writing down a few things now. 322 00:17:27.505 --> 00:17:30.827 Since we last spoke in three weeks, the deterioration has been marked. 323 00:17:30.867 --> 00:17:33.148 You're like Joe Biden. 324 00:17:33.469 --> 00:17:34.989 You've got tequila. 325 00:17:35.109 --> 00:17:36.390 You've got voices in your head. 326 00:17:36.690 --> 00:17:38.651 Now you've got theme songs and you're singing them. 327 00:17:39.012 --> 00:17:39.872 Okay, that's okay. 328 00:17:43.014 --> 00:17:45.855 But I am hearing this theme song when I look at Mr. 329 00:17:45.875 --> 00:17:51.608 Market currently because just when you thought it was safe to go back in the 330 00:17:51.608 --> 00:17:53.608 market you're quite right no 331 00:17:53.608 --> 00:17:58.693 you're quite right in fact the first the best bit of jaws is when they're when 332 00:17:58.693 --> 00:18:00.693 they're out with the scientists played by richard dreyfus and 333 00:18:00.693 --> 00:18:05.159 the the the fisherman the gnarly old fisherman is there and he's he's chumming 334 00:18:05.159 --> 00:18:07.159 you know he's throwing in fish heads and things in 335 00:18:07.159 --> 00:18:08.862 order to attract the shark and the shark comes up he's 336 00:18:08.902 --> 00:18:15.808 completely completely bamboozled by this and the scientist doesn't see So the 337 00:18:15.808 --> 00:18:17.808 scientist is the market trader of 338 00:18:17.808 --> 00:18:19.808 the things. 339 00:18:19.808 --> 00:18:21.808 Thank goodness it's all over and how big can a shark be? 340 00:18:21.808 --> 00:18:26.412 But then the shark comes up and we don't quite realise, despite the fact that 341 00:18:26.412 --> 00:18:28.412 there's a 90-day reprieve on the big, 342 00:18:28.412 --> 00:18:29.193 big tariffs, the fact is it's just a reprieve. 343 00:18:29.233 --> 00:18:30.194 Why 90 days? 344 00:18:30.254 --> 00:18:33.135 Why not just do it across the board anyway? 345 00:18:33.515 --> 00:18:40.138 So just realise damage has already been done and will continue to be done 346 00:18:40.478 --> 00:18:42.519 given the history of Donald J. 347 00:18:42.859 --> 00:18:43.559 Trump. 348 00:18:44.240 --> 00:18:44.940 Correct. 349 00:18:44.940 --> 00:18:51.823 correct and i think the only thing that's really keeping up the market in my view 350 00:18:51.823 --> 00:18:53.823 and this is just my view because um you 351 00:18:53.823 --> 00:18:58.746 and i i mean i think we're gonna we're gonna either be legendary in a year to 352 00:18:58.746 --> 00:19:00.746 some or we're gonna be totally forgotten because 353 00:19:00.746 --> 00:19:03.988 you and i had this tax inflation conversation i think already two two and a 354 00:19:03.988 --> 00:19:05.988 half years ago yeah um but 355 00:19:05.988 --> 00:19:10.771 i mean so so now we've already see the first quarter growth results came out for 356 00:19:10.771 --> 00:19:11.231 the 357 00:19:11.231 --> 00:19:14.032 us dropped 0.3 so there's the first contraction already. 358 00:19:14.592 --> 00:19:17.693 First murmurs of a possible recession. 359 00:19:19.014 --> 00:19:23.476 Yes, we did have the conversation about 2.3% inflation, 360 00:19:23.516 --> 00:19:26.857 which is the lowest levels since February 2021. 361 00:19:26.858 --> 00:19:27.558 So that's good. 362 00:19:27.857 --> 00:19:30.999 But as we just mentioned, I mean, tariffs were just paused. 363 00:19:31.419 --> 00:19:35.020 The actual tariffs will still be implemented in some way. 364 00:19:36.381 --> 00:19:41.023 And 30%, don't forget, 30% on China goods is a very, 365 00:19:41.203 --> 00:19:43.944 very large number considering this huge volume 366 00:19:44.224 --> 00:19:50.468 of trade that is sent from china to the united states of america every year so 367 00:19:50.468 --> 00:19:52.468 don't think that oh thank goodness it's not 368 00:19:52.468 --> 00:19:57.312 145 percent it's only 30 percent only 30 percent do me a favor that's damaging 369 00:19:57.312 --> 00:19:59.312 correct correct 370 00:19:59.312 --> 00:20:04.256 yeah that's that is that is going to be damaging and that's going to be 371 00:20:04.256 --> 00:20:06.256 inflationary no doubt about it so so the silver bullet as i mentioned 372 00:20:06.256 --> 00:20:11.340 the silver bullet for me um is is the is the job numbers the job numbers that that 373 00:20:11.340 --> 00:20:13.340 that that's still 374 00:20:13.340 --> 00:20:18.563 to this point holding up pretty strong when we we saw that the non-farm payrolls 375 00:20:18.563 --> 00:20:20.563 that actually increased in 376 00:20:20.563 --> 00:20:25.626 april and and unemployment rate stayed pretty stable at the four point four point 377 00:20:25.626 --> 00:20:27.626 two percent level so so that's that's sort of the 378 00:20:27.626 --> 00:20:29.027 the the saving grace for now but 379 00:20:29.307 --> 00:20:36.190 i don't i don't i don't see that i mean if you're gonna start seeing contractions in 380 00:20:36.190 --> 00:20:38.190 in the the 381 00:20:38.190 --> 00:20:40.672 economy uh we start seeing these tariffs i think we're gonna we're gonna start 382 00:20:41.192 --> 00:20:48.095 seeing some some worries around these job numbers pretty pretty soon so yeah i don't 383 00:20:48.095 --> 00:20:50.095 think it's over lindsey 384 00:20:50.095 --> 00:20:54.998 i mean again i'm referring referring back to the jaws theme so just when you thought 385 00:20:54.998 --> 00:20:56.998 it was safe to go back in the market i i don't think 386 00:20:56.998 --> 00:20:58.839 we were there yet i think the market is is really 387 00:20:59.500 --> 00:21:05.742 um to take us back to the previous hours and remember this that the retraction we 388 00:21:05.742 --> 00:21:07.742 saw early april was 389 00:21:07.742 --> 00:21:09.764 i i i thought a good thing because remember market was trading in 390 00:21:09.924 --> 00:21:16.026 elevated levels when i say elevated levels at at some of the highest writing pe 391 00:21:16.026 --> 00:21:18.026 ratings that we've seen 392 00:21:18.026 --> 00:21:23.188 since since you know 2020 and before that uh the the dot com era the early 393 00:21:23.648 --> 00:21:30.630 2000s yet we're sitting with all this wait for it uncertainty yeah no i 394 00:21:30.650 --> 00:21:37.512 don't know lindsey i'm i'm i'm really skeptical because someone sent you uh you 395 00:21:37.512 --> 00:21:39.512 said you put something on linkedin an article I think it was 396 00:21:39.512 --> 00:21:44.476 And somebody had asked, or you'd ask a rhetorical question, I think it was, which 397 00:21:44.476 --> 00:21:46.476 says, is it too late to sell in May and go away? 398 00:21:46.476 --> 00:21:47.557 And we'll talk about that next week because we'll still be in May. 399 00:21:47.597 --> 00:21:49.538 But you talked about a silver bullet. 400 00:21:50.039 --> 00:21:52.880 Now I'm going to talk about a gold bomb because it hasn't been great. 401 00:21:52.980 --> 00:21:56.182 And that's all to do with the dollar and also risk off, as people say. 402 00:21:56.722 --> 00:22:02.806 Thank goodness we can get out of the safe haven assets and go back into equities 403 00:22:02.806 --> 00:22:04.806 again. 404 00:22:04.806 --> 00:22:07.108 The gold price currently $3,183, down $52. 405 00:22:07.896 --> 00:22:14.538 on the day a long way away from 3500 but it was too high at 3500 probably 406 00:22:14.539 --> 00:22:21.420 should we call it 3000 to 3500 for the rest of the year yeah yeah i 407 00:22:21.440 --> 00:22:28.082 think i think it's going to stay pretty stable and and why why still you know you 408 00:22:28.082 --> 00:22:30.082 know if you saw some of these miners 409 00:22:30.082 --> 00:22:34.583 react i mean massive massive retractions in in the likes of gold fields anglo gold 410 00:22:34.583 --> 00:22:36.583 harmony all these mines 411 00:22:36.583 --> 00:22:36.924 And I look at this and I went like. 412 00:22:37.885 --> 00:22:44.408 I don't foresee a major contraction in the gold price purely because of all the 413 00:22:44.408 --> 00:22:44.409 things we just 414 00:22:44.448 --> 00:22:45.148 mentioned. 415 00:22:45.869 --> 00:22:51.372 Yet, when you look at gold fields, they brought out an operational update last 416 00:22:51.372 --> 00:22:51.431 week. 417 00:22:51.772 --> 00:22:54.193 And you're not having enough time to look at that. 418 00:22:54.253 --> 00:22:57.195 But they already mentioned that on a year-on-year basis, 419 00:22:57.255 --> 00:23:03.999 both the all-in sustainable costs and the all-in costs are lower now than what it 420 00:23:03.999 --> 00:23:05.999 was exactly a year ago. 421 00:23:05.999 --> 00:23:06.620 looking at more or less 422 00:23:07.200 --> 00:23:12.123 $1,865 per ounce for goldfields. 423 00:23:12.484 --> 00:23:19.188 Well, even if it stays, even if it goes down to $3,000, I mean, these mines, 424 00:23:19.228 --> 00:23:24.651 and I say these mines, I mean, pretty much all gold mines all over the world are 425 00:23:24.651 --> 00:23:26.651 printing, printing money. 426 00:23:26.651 --> 00:23:30.995 So, yeah, I think these retracements is a good thing and definitely sort of attract 427 00:23:30.995 --> 00:23:31.255 my 428 00:23:31.255 --> 00:23:31.816 attention currently. 429 00:23:32.564 --> 00:23:34.085 Okay, let's have a look at some markets now. 430 00:23:34.465 --> 00:23:40.869 Dollar Rand, 18.23, that's good for the plane load of white South Africans who 431 00:23:40.869 --> 00:23:42.869 have just been shipped off to the United States of America. 432 00:23:42.869 --> 00:23:47.092 They can exchange their rounds into dollars at a slightly better rate than 433 00:23:47.092 --> 00:23:49.092 they would have done six weeks ago. 434 00:23:49.092 --> 00:23:51.092 That's another story. 435 00:23:51.092 --> 00:23:53.092 Okay. 436 00:23:53.092 --> 00:23:54.516 At least we know there's more than 44 people speaking Afrikaans now. 437 00:23:55.076 --> 00:23:56.157 Didn't, didn't. 438 00:23:56.317 --> 00:23:57.017 What's her name? 439 00:23:57.077 --> 00:24:01.500 Charlize Theron came out that there's only about 44 people still speaking Afrikaans. 440 00:24:01.560 --> 00:24:06.601 Well, We know that there's 49 Afrikaners that actually went over to the US, but 441 00:24:06.601 --> 00:24:06.882 anyway. 442 00:24:06.882 --> 00:24:10.242 That's a great story, and I wish them well. 443 00:24:10.682 --> 00:24:13.103 British pound against the Rand is 24.23. 444 00:24:13.104 --> 00:24:16.044 The Euro Rand is 20.43. 445 00:24:16.064 --> 00:24:22.426 Euro dollar is 1.1205. So the dollar has weakened very, very slightly. 446 00:24:22.466 --> 00:24:25.326 British pound against the US dollar is 1.33 now. 447 00:24:26.347 --> 00:24:31.568 Commodities, the gold price, we've mentioned it's down over $50 to just above 448 00:24:31.568 --> 00:24:33.568 $31.80. 449 00:24:33.568 --> 00:24:36.970 platinum price that's boring 980 down a bit palladium 450 00:24:36.971 --> 00:24:43.793 953 up a little bit getting on to something that's been quite exciting since 451 00:24:43.793 --> 00:24:45.793 we spoke 452 00:24:45.793 --> 00:24:47.175 if you're into that sort of thing Brent crude oil is 453 00:24:47.755 --> 00:24:54.218 down just under a percent to 66 dollars and six cents per barrel and West Texas 454 00:24:54.218 --> 00:24:54.237 crude 455 00:24:54.237 --> 00:24:59.800 63 dollars and eight cents per barrel which is down also just under one percent 456 00:24:59.800 --> 00:25:01.800 natural gas prices. 457 00:25:01.800 --> 00:25:01.901 Down 2.8% again. 458 00:25:02.061 --> 00:25:05.464 There seems to be this big arbitrage every day between gas and oil. 459 00:25:07.225 --> 00:25:10.067 And yeah, that's more or less what we've got there. 460 00:25:10.267 --> 00:25:15.270 S&P 500, which we've been talking about, is the futures prices currently. 461 00:25:15.491 --> 00:25:17.692 This is the June futures. 462 00:25:18.633 --> 00:25:20.534 They're going to be going off the board quite soon. 463 00:25:20.574 --> 00:25:24.096 But anyway, for now, 5,906, which is flat on the day. 464 00:25:24.597 --> 00:25:29.080 US 10-year bond yield, we've also mentioned that, 4.51% now. 465 00:25:29.472 --> 00:25:32.913 which is just very slightly higher for the yield. 466 00:25:33.153 --> 00:25:36.074 The South African 10-year is, what is that, 467 00:25:36.134 --> 00:25:41.055 10.77%. 468 00:25:41.075 --> 00:25:46.557 And the Bitcoin price, which has been all over the place, all to the upside there, 469 00:25:46.557 --> 00:25:48.557 is down a bit today, down 0.5% 470 00:25:48.557 --> 00:25:51.818 to $103,224 per Bitcoin. 471 00:25:52.758 --> 00:25:58.200 Downside on the JSC today, Skalk, I can give those to you because they're all 472 00:25:58.200 --> 00:26:00.200 diggers, I think. 473 00:26:00.562 --> 00:26:07.225 have you got them there yeah i've got them and you're 100 right and and actually i 474 00:26:07.225 --> 00:26:09.225 want to i see your 475 00:26:09.225 --> 00:26:14.108 diggers and i will raise it by saying most of them gold diggers because angler gold 476 00:26:14.108 --> 00:26:16.108 down five percent pan-african resources 477 00:26:16.108 --> 00:26:20.070 4.3 percent down harmony down 3.3 percent there's the first non-digger south 32 down 478 00:26:20.150 --> 00:26:25.973 2.6 percent and then gold fields down 2.43 percent yeah 479 00:26:25.974 --> 00:26:32.695 yeah all diggers okay on the episode ph prop up up 3% truos, weighing in with a 480 00:26:32.695 --> 00:26:34.695 2.9% gain. 481 00:26:34.695 --> 00:26:36.695 DataTek up 2.9% as well. 482 00:26:36.695 --> 00:26:39.477 2.5% gains for SAPI and Process up 2.5%. 483 00:26:39.497 --> 00:26:44.358 Also, not much going on on the corporate front in South Africa at the moment, 484 00:26:44.358 --> 00:26:44.418 Scott. 485 00:26:44.418 --> 00:26:47.079 That will, of course, change as the results season comes in. 486 00:26:47.159 --> 00:26:49.159 But, yeah, pretty quiet. 487 00:26:49.440 --> 00:26:55.841 So you're back and you're going to read all the reports that you missed because of 488 00:26:55.841 --> 00:26:57.841 organizing conferences 489 00:26:57.841 --> 00:26:59.841 and so forth. 490 00:26:59.841 --> 00:27:01.624 I want to ask you, And this is a sort of a trading philosophy question. 491 00:27:02.025 --> 00:27:08.971 When you've built up a gold position, you've built it and done very well for 492 00:27:08.971 --> 00:27:10.971 your clients and hopefully for yourself as well, 493 00:27:10.971 --> 00:27:12.971 Scal. 494 00:27:12.971 --> 00:27:16.497 When do you manage to say that's it or that's it for the bulk of my position? 495 00:27:16.577 --> 00:27:23.262 Because there are certain sick gold bulls that it's easier for them to get out of a 496 00:27:23.262 --> 00:27:25.262 marriage than it is to get out of a gold position 497 00:27:25.262 --> 00:27:25.384 that they are so in love with. 498 00:27:25.684 --> 00:27:27.446 I know you're not that sort of person. 499 00:27:27.746 --> 00:27:29.827 But I do know it's difficult to let go. 500 00:27:30.227 --> 00:27:33.508 Please give us some guidance here, if you would. 501 00:27:34.568 --> 00:27:37.929 A few years ago, I wrote an article. 502 00:27:38.129 --> 00:27:39.769 It's when to sell a stock. 503 00:27:39.889 --> 00:27:44.451 I'm not Mr. Warren Buffett that says the answer to that is never. 504 00:27:46.591 --> 00:27:48.011 I do have an exit strategy. 505 00:27:48.652 --> 00:27:54.933 And I think that the largest part of this answer is when the investment 506 00:27:54.973 --> 00:27:56.414 case changes. 507 00:27:57.014 --> 00:27:57.714 And... 508 00:27:57.814 --> 00:27:59.696 When I look at the current environment, 509 00:28:00.196 --> 00:28:06.722 I don't see the investment change has changed at all or the investment case has 510 00:28:06.722 --> 00:28:08.722 changed at all. 511 00:28:08.722 --> 00:28:09.364 We still got the tariffs. 512 00:28:09.685 --> 00:28:11.306 We still got political. 513 00:28:11.446 --> 00:28:17.311 Yes, we've got a ceasefire between Pakistan and India. 514 00:28:17.832 --> 00:28:22.195 But Pakistan and India wasn't even a topic three months ago. 515 00:28:22.856 --> 00:28:23.937 We had the Gaza. 516 00:28:24.077 --> 00:28:24.838 We've got we had 517 00:28:25.314 --> 00:28:32.196 um ukraine uh russia now suddenly india and pakistan has joined the pity party i 518 00:28:32.196 --> 00:28:32.596 mean 519 00:28:32.596 --> 00:28:39.458 yeah so to the investment case for for gold hasn't changed so i i'm not going to 520 00:28:39.458 --> 00:28:41.458 exit that 521 00:28:41.458 --> 00:28:41.999 that position anytime soon on 522 00:28:42.000 --> 00:28:48.981 the back of what i just mentioned these guys are are mining gold for run about one 523 00:28:48.981 --> 00:28:50.981 thousand 524 00:28:50.981 --> 00:28:53.002 eight hundred one thousand nine hundred dollars and and they're selling it for way 525 00:28:53.002 --> 00:28:55.002 more so now 526 00:28:55.002 --> 00:28:59.608 I'm only married to my wife, not to the gold position, 527 00:29:00.048 --> 00:29:03.711 but my investment case is still very, very, very strong. 528 00:29:04.011 --> 00:29:04.832 I want to just get back. 529 00:29:04.872 --> 00:29:11.057 I mean, you very quickly mentioned that Naspash and Proces were one of the top 530 00:29:11.057 --> 00:29:13.057 performers today. 531 00:29:13.057 --> 00:29:14.520 And just a thing for the listeners out there, we had 10 cents results today. 532 00:29:14.560 --> 00:29:17.443 I think that's the main reason for that move. 533 00:29:18.163 --> 00:29:20.766 Revenue came out at 180. 534 00:29:21.334 --> 00:29:28.140 just over 180 billion won uh which which average the the the which which surpass 535 00:29:28.140 --> 00:29:30.140 the average 536 00:29:30.140 --> 00:29:35.306 estimates of let's call it just sharp 176 billion won so that's that was quite a 537 00:29:35.306 --> 00:29:37.306 nice beat and uh yeah 538 00:29:37.306 --> 00:29:42.311 mr market reacted very very nice and as i as as you mentioned um and processed up 539 00:29:42.311 --> 00:29:44.311 2.5 percent 540 00:29:44.311 --> 00:29:48.076 and especially a sharp two percent for today skunk thanks so much for your 541 00:29:48.076 --> 00:29:50.076 insight great to have you back skunkler is a portfolio 542 00:29:50.076 --> 00:29:51.238 manager at psg wealth old oak in Cape Town. 543 00:29:51.618 --> 00:29:52.999 And that was the five o'clock shadow. 544 00:29:53.619 --> 00:30:00.582 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 545 00:30:00.582 --> 00:30:02.582 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 546 00:30:02.582 --> 00:30:04.324 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 547 00:30:04.644 --> 00:30:09.286 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 548 00:30:09.746 --> 00:30:16.729 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 549 00:30:16.729 --> 00:30:18.729 entity other than the speaker or the author. 550 00:30:18.729 --> 00:30:19.510 And since we are critically thinking human beings. 551 00:30:19.874 --> 00:30:25.050 These views are always subject to change, revision and rethinking at any time. 552 00:30:25.350 --> 00:30:27.778 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.