WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.412 --> 00:00:05.154 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.155 --> 00:00:08.576 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock 3 00:00:08.576 --> 00:00:08.755 shadow. 4 00:00:08.755 --> 00:00:14.718 And as always on a Thursday, although recently for various reasons, we haven't 5 00:00:14.718 --> 00:00:16.718 been together, but we are together today. 6 00:00:16.718 --> 00:00:20.501 And when I say we, I mean David Shapiro from Sasson Securities, Viv Govender from 7 00:00:20.501 --> 00:00:22.501 Rand Swiss, 8 00:00:22.501 --> 00:00:23.902 both of whom are in Johannesburg, and I'm here in the Netherlands. 9 00:00:23.982 --> 00:00:27.123 And David Shapiro, I think we have to start with you because welcome back. 10 00:00:27.183 --> 00:00:28.424 You've been on a lengthy... 11 00:00:28.864 --> 00:00:34.245 lengthy field trip to the United States and I know you've got notebooks packed 12 00:00:34.245 --> 00:00:36.245 with insight. 13 00:00:36.245 --> 00:00:38.245 I have. 14 00:00:38.245 --> 00:00:41.948 I was quite conscientious in that respect is that you know if I heard anything or 15 00:00:41.948 --> 00:00:43.948 noted anything 16 00:00:43.948 --> 00:00:49.210 I'd put it down on a piece of paper and I've got lots of scraps of piece of papers 17 00:00:49.210 --> 00:00:51.210 here that I have to put into a view 18 00:00:51.210 --> 00:00:56.652 but I've got there's a lot I have to say about the US and having seen it from 19 00:00:56.652 --> 00:00:56.791 different 20 00:00:56.792 --> 00:00:57.972 angles as well. 21 00:00:58.744 --> 00:01:03.267 And not always what's the word, complimentary. 22 00:01:05.409 --> 00:01:08.531 I think listening to Powell last night, I think he sums it up. 23 00:01:09.752 --> 00:01:16.677 His holding back because of uncertainty really gives you a strong idea of where 24 00:01:16.677 --> 00:01:18.677 markets are and where the 25 00:01:18.677 --> 00:01:21.661 world economy is until such time as there's clarification on his policy. 26 00:01:21.801 --> 00:01:23.002 And it's all over the place. 27 00:01:23.402 --> 00:01:24.543 He's got his apologist. 28 00:01:24.583 --> 00:01:25.764 In fact, I can see Mr. 29 00:01:25.844 --> 00:01:26.544 Nudnik. 30 00:01:26.688 --> 00:01:33.470 at the moment talking on my television screen trying to explain how the great 31 00:01:33.470 --> 00:01:35.470 Trump is managing the portfolio 32 00:01:35.470 --> 00:01:37.470 and brilliant deals that he does. 33 00:01:37.470 --> 00:01:39.470 That's Lutnik, not Nutnik. 34 00:01:39.470 --> 00:01:41.312 Nutnik is a Yiddish word which is not complimentary. 35 00:01:42.313 --> 00:01:49.035 But to an extent, I still think until such time as we've clarified, 36 00:01:49.155 --> 00:01:52.396 you know, they're making a big song and dance now about the deal with the UK. 37 00:01:52.856 --> 00:01:55.737 I think Why the markets are recovered is another issue. 38 00:01:55.757 --> 00:02:02.601 I think a lot had to do with the fall that we saw in the market, his ratings falling 39 00:02:02.601 --> 00:02:04.601 dramatically, 40 00:02:04.601 --> 00:02:05.083 and other issues. 41 00:02:05.143 --> 00:02:07.644 Yes, the results from tech companies help. 42 00:02:08.064 --> 00:02:11.967 But I think the conclusion I've come to, 43 00:02:12.607 --> 00:02:18.310 and I'm taking a bit of time to get to that, is that I think he's lost his grip, 44 00:02:18.310 --> 00:02:20.310 Trump. 45 00:02:20.310 --> 00:02:21.072 I don't think he's as popular as he thinks he is. 46 00:02:22.152 --> 00:02:24.034 I think that America is getting bored with him. 47 00:02:24.434 --> 00:02:28.597 They're tired, you know, this is the best deal that's ever been made, you know, the 48 00:02:28.597 --> 00:02:30.597 superlatives. 49 00:02:30.597 --> 00:02:34.682 And I think that this is going to start building up against him in the time to 50 00:02:34.682 --> 00:02:34.983 come. 51 00:02:34.983 --> 00:02:41.668 I think American corporates are getting angry with him, particularly those that 52 00:02:41.668 --> 00:02:43.668 import from China and so on. 53 00:02:43.668 --> 00:02:47.693 And, you know, in a brief way, trying to get to the point, I think that he's topped 54 00:02:47.693 --> 00:02:49.693 out, you know, 55 00:02:49.693 --> 00:02:51.496 and I don't think he's going to get any more popular than he was. 56 00:02:51.856 --> 00:02:58.720 you know this this is the levels he's saying he's saying more and more bizarre 57 00:02:58.720 --> 00:03:00.720 things i'm just going to stay with you david because you've been there for a few 58 00:03:00.720 --> 00:03:02.720 years he's 59 00:03:02.720 --> 00:03:05.584 saying more and more bizarre things and and you know you don't have to be in 60 00:03:05.584 --> 00:03:07.584 america to hear them but he said things about world war 61 00:03:07.584 --> 00:03:12.227 ii so we should be celebrating this victory day and he said that america was 62 00:03:12.227 --> 00:03:14.227 the greatest um 63 00:03:14.227 --> 00:03:18.851 factor the world war world war ii was won by the allies because of the united states 64 00:03:18.851 --> 00:03:20.851 of of America, the strongest, 65 00:03:20.851 --> 00:03:22.851 most brilliant militarily. 66 00:03:22.851 --> 00:03:23.033 250,000 troops died, etc. 67 00:03:23.593 --> 00:03:30.317 And I thought to myself, on VE Day, with King Charles and Queen Camilla in 68 00:03:30.317 --> 00:03:32.317 Westminster Abbey, 69 00:03:32.317 --> 00:03:33.279 they've probably read these things. 70 00:03:33.299 --> 00:03:38.882 I think, how disrespectful to take credit for something. 71 00:03:38.883 --> 00:03:45.166 Obviously, the Americans came in and they helped after Pearl Harbour and everything, 72 00:03:45.166 --> 00:03:47.166 but to be so vainglorious, 73 00:03:47.166 --> 00:03:48.848 I found a bit offensive, actually, as a British person. 74 00:03:51.745 --> 00:03:56.607 Let's talk and I'll come in after. 75 00:03:56.667 --> 00:04:03.490 Do you guys know that for every single German that the Americans, French, British 76 00:04:03.490 --> 00:04:05.490 and the Allies combined killed, 77 00:04:05.490 --> 00:04:07.490 the Russians killed eight? 78 00:04:07.490 --> 00:04:09.490 Lost eight. 79 00:04:09.490 --> 00:04:11.490 Really? 80 00:04:11.490 --> 00:04:13.490 No, no. 81 00:04:13.490 --> 00:04:15.490 Killed eight. 82 00:04:15.490 --> 00:04:17.490 They lost way more than eight. 83 00:04:17.490 --> 00:04:19.490 Oh, I see. 84 00:04:19.490 --> 00:04:21.490 Yeah. 85 00:04:21.490 --> 00:04:23.490 Oh, I see what you mean. 86 00:04:23.490 --> 00:04:25.490 Oh, yeah. 87 00:04:25.490 --> 00:04:27.490 They lost way more than eight. 88 00:04:27.490 --> 00:04:29.490 their ratios of deaths to German kills were like horrendous. 89 00:04:29.490 --> 00:04:31.490 I mean, they lost, you know, an unbelievable number of people, 25 million 90 00:04:31.490 --> 00:04:33.490 people or so, in a population that wasn't that large. 91 00:04:33.490 --> 00:04:35.490 But I mean, in terms of like the biggest arm, the biggest concentration of the 92 00:04:35.490 --> 00:04:37.490 German military was always fighting the Russians. 93 00:04:37.490 --> 00:04:41.129 D-Day was not actually a important factor in the 94 00:04:41.149 --> 00:04:41.849 war. 95 00:04:41.849 --> 00:04:46.592 It was more a case of the Americans and the British wanted to get to Germany 96 00:04:46.592 --> 00:04:48.592 before the Russians did. 97 00:04:48.592 --> 00:04:53.542 because by that time the russians already steamrolling towards germany and so yeah 98 00:04:53.542 --> 00:04:55.542 look i mean the the russians like i mean 99 00:04:55.542 --> 00:05:01.629 uh i don't think stalin was a good person stalin was as stalin mao and hitler up 100 00:05:01.629 --> 00:05:03.629 there that as a three you know almost tied for 101 00:05:03.629 --> 00:05:05.992 most evil people in the last uh you know a couple hundred years at least uh 102 00:05:06.232 --> 00:05:12.258 but uh the russians paid a huge price of all the americans uh you know told us uh 103 00:05:13.278 --> 00:05:17.159 were not as important for the war as the Russians were. 104 00:05:18.139 --> 00:05:19.540 Let's be very clear about that. 105 00:05:19.760 --> 00:05:25.361 I'm very, like, you know, fervent about the idea that the Russians basically won 106 00:05:25.361 --> 00:05:27.361 World War II. 107 00:05:27.361 --> 00:05:29.403 They definitely sacrificed the most, and they killed the most people. 108 00:05:30.423 --> 00:05:37.325 It's without getting into too much history, it's a very important point you 109 00:05:37.325 --> 00:05:39.325 make, because when they met, 110 00:05:39.325 --> 00:05:44.543 when Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin met in Tehran, They later met in Yalta to 111 00:05:44.543 --> 00:05:46.543 carve up 112 00:05:46.543 --> 00:05:49.805 Germany. But, I mean, this was before that because Stalin was getting very angry. 113 00:05:49.885 --> 00:05:52.366 I don't know if he was there or whether he sent a message or whatever it was. 114 00:05:52.367 --> 00:05:59.209 He was getting very angry that he was losing so many people and they were 115 00:05:59.209 --> 00:06:01.209 messing around and not making invasion plans. 116 00:06:01.209 --> 00:06:03.209 He needed that second front. 117 00:06:03.209 --> 00:06:06.892 And they were forced to do something. 118 00:06:06.972 --> 00:06:12.175 But, I mean, it's a fascinating subject to… to understand. 119 00:06:12.495 --> 00:06:18.801 And Lindsay, to be honest, when you read about the American generals, go read about 120 00:06:18.801 --> 00:06:20.801 them in Italy, 121 00:06:20.801 --> 00:06:22.801 go read about them. 122 00:06:22.801 --> 00:06:24.801 They hated the British. 123 00:06:24.801 --> 00:06:26.801 They fought with Montgomery. 124 00:06:26.801 --> 00:06:27.428 I mean, there was huge tensions between Eisenhower and Montgomery. 125 00:06:28.609 --> 00:06:34.234 But when you read the history, the messes that these American generals made, 126 00:06:34.434 --> 00:06:35.955 the only decent one was Patton. 127 00:06:36.376 --> 00:06:38.638 I mean, but the rest, I don't know. 128 00:06:39.078 --> 00:06:43.099 Well, that's why Hicks is sacking so many of them, maybe. 129 00:06:43.100 --> 00:06:49.461 I would assume it's Patton, because Patton basically, at times, just for pure ego, 130 00:06:49.461 --> 00:06:51.461 did actually do things that were like, no, just shot Montgomery, 131 00:06:51.461 --> 00:06:53.461 just shot the British. 132 00:06:53.461 --> 00:06:55.461 He did things for ego. 133 00:06:55.461 --> 00:06:56.883 I mean, look, I mean, I've seen military studies say that the Russian generals, you 134 00:06:56.883 --> 00:06:57.323 know, 135 00:06:57.323 --> 00:07:01.404 at the end were really, really competent in terms of what they were doing. 136 00:07:02.184 --> 00:07:04.945 But they were just working on a different kind of formula in terms of what they were 137 00:07:04.945 --> 00:07:05.226 trying to do. 138 00:07:05.226 --> 00:07:08.046 They just didn't care about their people as much and were willing to grind them 139 00:07:08.046 --> 00:07:08.347 down. 140 00:07:09.202 --> 00:07:10.523 to get their victories in the end. 141 00:07:10.603 --> 00:07:15.164 But yeah, look, World War II is, obviously because of the time we're talking about 142 00:07:15.164 --> 00:07:15.564 it, 143 00:07:15.564 --> 00:07:17.965 but we are going to talk about World War II. 144 00:07:17.985 --> 00:07:23.686 One thing we're going to mention is the fact that we have lived our entire lives 145 00:07:23.686 --> 00:07:25.686 in the aftermath of World War II, where the American dominance came from that, 146 00:07:25.686 --> 00:07:27.968 where the UN Security Council, of course, was created after that. 147 00:07:28.508 --> 00:07:34.650 It does not make sense to have a UN Security Council in 2025 that does not 148 00:07:34.650 --> 00:07:36.650 have India on board and has basically France and the UK on board, 149 00:07:36.650 --> 00:07:38.650 if you think about it. 150 00:07:38.650 --> 00:07:40.650 Yeah, it's very true. 151 00:07:40.650 --> 00:07:42.650 Times are changing and institutions are not changing with it. 152 00:07:42.650 --> 00:07:43.508 Talking about India and Pakistan, of course, that skirmish. 153 00:07:43.548 --> 00:07:45.168 I mean, these skirmishes are regular. 154 00:07:45.169 --> 00:07:50.050 I'm not saying that this one isn't going to have the potential to flare up into 155 00:07:50.050 --> 00:07:50.270 something. 156 00:07:50.310 --> 00:07:54.591 But again, Trump said when he heard about it, he claimed that he'd heard about it 157 00:07:54.591 --> 00:07:54.732 before. 158 00:07:55.111 --> 00:07:57.492 And in fact, he'd just been told. 159 00:07:57.592 --> 00:07:59.953 And anyway, that's just Trump. 160 00:08:00.273 --> 00:08:02.993 But he said the first thing he said was, it's a shame. 161 00:08:03.333 --> 00:08:05.014 but they have been fighting for decades. 162 00:08:05.334 --> 00:08:06.355 and even centuries. 163 00:08:06.595 --> 00:08:11.199 Well, of course, Pakistan was only formed in 1947, August the 14th. 164 00:08:11.419 --> 00:08:13.861 So how they could have been fighting for centuries, I don't know. 165 00:08:15.583 --> 00:08:17.925 He's just unbelievably stupid, man. 166 00:08:17.926 --> 00:08:18.626 No, but you must 167 00:08:18.626 --> 00:08:25.531 understand 168 00:08:25.532 --> 00:08:29.294 that when it comes to India-Pakistan, you must understand the US has been supporting 169 00:08:29.294 --> 00:08:31.294 Pakistan forever. 170 00:08:31.294 --> 00:08:32.657 When the Pakistanis lost East Pakistan, which is Bangladesh, right? 171 00:08:33.417 --> 00:08:34.117 Pakistan used to be... 172 00:08:34.458 --> 00:08:41.402 eastern west pakistan and bangladesh should be part of pakistan when the 173 00:08:41.402 --> 00:08:43.402 indians helped bangladesh get independence the americans sent 174 00:08:43.402 --> 00:08:48.206 an aircraft carrier to basically kind of stop the the indians from basically going 175 00:08:48.206 --> 00:08:50.206 into like pakistan major and basically made them 176 00:08:50.206 --> 00:08:54.509 you know kind of like agree to like a ceasefire effectively after they had won 177 00:08:54.509 --> 00:08:56.509 uh the pakistanis have been much 178 00:08:56.509 --> 00:08:59.912 more american allies than than you would think they have been you know considering 179 00:08:59.912 --> 00:09:01.912 like you know people like osama bin laden 180 00:09:01.912 --> 00:09:05.456 and stuff but pakistan is definitely have been american allies And now they are 181 00:09:05.456 --> 00:09:07.456 looking to be more Chinese allies. 182 00:09:07.456 --> 00:09:09.456 And apparently the Chinese are the ones supporting them. 183 00:09:09.456 --> 00:09:11.181 And it's never been like a case of just Pakistan versus India. 184 00:09:12.242 --> 00:09:16.866 It's more a case of India versus whichever superpower is working through Pakistan to 185 00:09:16.866 --> 00:09:18.866 kind of do whatever to them. 186 00:09:18.866 --> 00:09:20.866 So right now it's the Chinese. 187 00:09:20.866 --> 00:09:22.866 And that's the main thing here. 188 00:09:22.866 --> 00:09:25.955 And apparently it's disputed, but they say that the Pakistanis shot down five jets, 189 00:09:26.675 --> 00:09:29.638 which seems unlikely unless they were given betam. 190 00:09:30.166 --> 00:09:36.832 equipment by the chinese that's that's what the story is that the yeah you know 191 00:09:36.832 --> 00:09:38.832 they're showing off the chinese uh 192 00:09:38.832 --> 00:09:44.398 planes and uh their capabilities yeah yeah so the chinese the chinese are using and 193 00:09:44.398 --> 00:09:46.398 here's the thing as 194 00:09:46.398 --> 00:09:49.983 well uh beyond uh this is that the real danger here is the water so it's just been 195 00:09:49.983 --> 00:09:50.323 trying 196 00:09:50.323 --> 00:09:55.607 to uh they have an agreement between india and pakistan that's been gone for years 197 00:09:55.607 --> 00:09:57.607 decades in fact that's gone through multiple walls and 198 00:09:57.607 --> 00:10:01.835 they never touched it now they're touching it for the first time which is basically 199 00:10:01.835 --> 00:10:03.835 the agreement to give certain rivers that start in India, they're going to Pakistan, 200 00:10:03.835 --> 00:10:05.835 give all the water to Pakistan. 201 00:10:05.835 --> 00:10:07.098 So even the rivers start in India, and India basically can take all the water, 202 00:10:07.098 --> 00:10:09.098 they give it to Pakistan. 203 00:10:09.098 --> 00:10:09.579 And they've never abrogated that, but now they are. 204 00:10:10.239 --> 00:10:11.220 Okay, so that's one thing. 205 00:10:11.420 --> 00:10:12.900 Pakistan can't survive without those rivers. 206 00:10:12.901 --> 00:10:15.381 It can't survive a huge amount of the agriculture and whatnot. 207 00:10:15.822 --> 00:10:16.582 But the thing is that... 208 00:10:17.331 --> 00:10:23.854 India has the same situation on the opposite side with China, with stuff that 209 00:10:23.854 --> 00:10:25.854 starts in Tibet becoming major in India. 210 00:10:25.854 --> 00:10:30.257 Now, if the Indians do that to Pakistan, the Chinese might have an excuse to do 211 00:10:30.257 --> 00:10:32.257 that to India, and then you have a real flap, 212 00:10:32.257 --> 00:10:36.739 because as much as they care about 26 or something people dying in a shootout, 213 00:10:36.739 --> 00:10:38.739 trust me, when you take away the water supply of a country, 214 00:10:38.739 --> 00:10:40.739 that's when you might have a nuclear war coming about. 215 00:10:40.739 --> 00:10:42.739 How long ago was it? 216 00:10:42.739 --> 00:10:44.863 How many decades ago was it that somebody wrote a book saying the next world war 217 00:10:44.863 --> 00:10:46.863 will be fought over water? 218 00:10:47.148 --> 00:10:49.210 It was quite famous and everyone said, yeah, right. 219 00:10:49.250 --> 00:10:53.293 But maybe given what you've just said, Viv, maybe it will come to pass. 220 00:10:53.353 --> 00:10:54.974 Now, David, 221 00:10:56.515 --> 00:11:03.340 the sell-off that we saw after the so-called Liberation Day tariff moment was 222 00:11:03.340 --> 00:11:05.340 clawed back and it was the best 223 00:11:05.340 --> 00:11:07.082 run in the US stock market for something like 21 years. 224 00:11:07.142 --> 00:11:13.967 Now, is it all over or is it just a reaction to the fact that it was overdone 225 00:11:13.967 --> 00:11:15.967 in the first place and people are saying, Okay, 226 00:11:15.967 --> 00:11:17.967 where to next? 227 00:11:17.967 --> 00:11:20.530 I think there's a bullish case and a bearish case. 228 00:11:20.690 --> 00:11:26.032 I think the bullish case is that we've had very good results. 229 00:11:26.652 --> 00:11:31.995 You heard Powell last night talking about how solid the U.S. 230 00:11:32.075 --> 00:11:34.816 economy is and there's no need for him to do anything. 231 00:11:34.856 --> 00:11:39.418 So underneath it is a very solid economy. 232 00:11:39.838 --> 00:11:42.519 But I think the one point. 233 00:11:42.987 --> 00:11:49.171 that I think is very important is, you know, besides the corporate results, 234 00:11:49.172 --> 00:11:52.133 is that I think the market's beginning to discount Trump. 235 00:11:52.834 --> 00:11:58.237 You know, they're saying those tariff increases that he announced on 236 00:11:58.738 --> 00:12:01.580 April the 2nd in the Rose, none of that's going to come about. 237 00:12:01.660 --> 00:12:03.601 It's going to be watered down significantly. 238 00:12:04.141 --> 00:12:09.825 And I think because he started to lose popularity, his ratings were falling. 239 00:12:10.145 --> 00:12:12.507 We saw the market react viciously. 240 00:12:12.919 --> 00:12:15.401 The dollar reacted, the bond market, whatever. 241 00:12:15.441 --> 00:12:16.422 I think those hurt him. 242 00:12:16.682 --> 00:12:18.384 He won't admit it, but those hurt him. 243 00:12:19.444 --> 00:12:23.948 And I think the other thing is that his attack on Powell caused also further 244 00:12:23.948 --> 00:12:25.948 problems. 245 00:12:25.948 --> 00:12:28.192 So I think he's I see that's what I'm coming back on saying. 246 00:12:28.193 --> 00:12:32.535 I start to see him unwinding, you know, in other words, rolling back quite 247 00:12:32.535 --> 00:12:34.535 dramatically. 248 00:12:34.535 --> 00:12:36.535 And that's the bullish case. 249 00:12:36.535 --> 00:12:38.535 Can it continue? 250 00:12:38.535 --> 00:12:40.535 Yes, if he makes concessions. 251 00:12:40.535 --> 00:12:41.683 If he comes with a clear policy, yes, the market can continue. 252 00:12:41.943 --> 00:12:46.145 But the longer he delays on China, forget about the UK now. 253 00:12:46.485 --> 00:12:48.746 They're going to be buying Boeings and steel. 254 00:12:48.826 --> 00:12:51.868 I don't know what the UK does that's that important. 255 00:12:52.048 --> 00:12:53.529 I don't know what their economy is like. 256 00:12:54.389 --> 00:12:57.311 Lindsay, you know more about it than I do, but I don't think it's that great. 257 00:12:57.771 --> 00:13:00.552 But nevertheless, he's making a big fuss about this. 258 00:13:00.892 --> 00:13:03.934 His main aim, the one that everybody's watching, China. 259 00:13:04.394 --> 00:13:05.975 And he's got to do something there. 260 00:13:06.259 --> 00:13:10.182 Well, the stress meeting this weekend is not going to resolve that. 261 00:13:10.462 --> 00:13:12.763 It's more to say, look, let's get together. 262 00:13:12.783 --> 00:13:14.024 Let's pave the way for talks. 263 00:13:14.365 --> 00:13:21.349 But again, he said in an interview, a live interview from the Oval Office, he said, 264 00:13:21.349 --> 00:13:23.349 we're talking. 265 00:13:23.349 --> 00:13:25.349 We're talking every day. 266 00:13:25.349 --> 00:13:27.349 We spoke this morning. 267 00:13:27.349 --> 00:13:29.435 And then a couple of weeks later, he's saying, no, we haven't been talking. 268 00:13:29.436 --> 00:13:33.077 He said two weeks ago, we've done 200 deals already. 269 00:13:33.297 --> 00:13:35.839 I've done 200 deals, he said, 200 trade deals. 270 00:13:36.079 --> 00:13:41.841 And then again this week he said, I haven't done any deals because I don't 271 00:13:41.841 --> 00:13:43.841 need to do deals. 272 00:13:43.841 --> 00:13:45.841 Why does he behave like this? 273 00:13:45.841 --> 00:13:47.841 It infuriates me. 274 00:13:47.841 --> 00:13:49.841 Give me the headline now. 275 00:13:49.841 --> 00:13:51.841 Trump, very close on numerous deals. 276 00:13:51.841 --> 00:13:53.841 That's him. 277 00:13:53.841 --> 00:13:55.841 And that's rubbish. 278 00:13:55.841 --> 00:13:57.841 That's absolute rubbish. 279 00:13:57.841 --> 00:13:58.765 You know, that everybody's now banging on the door wanting to do deals with him. 280 00:13:58.985 --> 00:14:02.346 Yes, they're going to look and say, what concessions did he make with the UK? 281 00:14:02.947 --> 00:14:04.227 Was there anything worthwhile? 282 00:14:04.471 --> 00:14:06.012 Can we do something similar to it? 283 00:14:06.412 --> 00:14:09.453 But this is all, this is smoke and mirrors with him. 284 00:14:09.533 --> 00:14:11.654 And it's all hubris. 285 00:14:11.734 --> 00:14:15.115 It's all, I don't know, you know, a bluster. 286 00:14:16.096 --> 00:14:18.097 He's got to do the Chinese deal. 287 00:14:18.337 --> 00:14:19.037 That's the one. 288 00:14:19.037 --> 00:14:20.138 Yeah. 289 00:14:20.139 --> 00:14:27.080 And Viv, it does take, they say it takes around 18 months to two years to properly 290 00:14:27.080 --> 00:14:29.080 sign, seal and deliver a trade deal. 291 00:14:29.080 --> 00:14:30.982 And he's saying he's done 200 in six weeks or something. 292 00:14:31.282 --> 00:14:33.023 Even you as a studious fellow. 293 00:14:33.263 --> 00:14:36.045 must get emotionally frustrated by this whole situation. 294 00:14:37.525 --> 00:14:41.187 I think you have to understand that that's probably, I think you're looking at it 295 00:14:41.187 --> 00:14:43.187 from the wrong point of view. 296 00:14:43.187 --> 00:14:44.229 You're thinking of it like logically, someone trying to be an agent for the US. 297 00:14:44.809 --> 00:14:47.251 And I think there's an agent principle problem here you must get over. 298 00:14:47.811 --> 00:14:50.192 I think Trump does not want to get a deal done. 299 00:14:50.252 --> 00:14:53.034 Trump wants to be the person that says yes or no. 300 00:14:53.274 --> 00:14:53.974 You know what I mean? 301 00:14:55.235 --> 00:15:01.779 Trump, I mean, do you think he'd be happy if he gets all these deals done and spends 302 00:15:01.779 --> 00:15:03.779 the next three and a half years of his presidency with nobody listening to him? 303 00:15:03.779 --> 00:15:04.239 I'm falling over. 304 00:15:04.240 --> 00:15:05.840 Honestly, think about it from that point of view. 305 00:15:06.200 --> 00:15:13.061 You know, I honestly do think from his point of view, the more chaos there is, 306 00:15:13.061 --> 00:15:15.061 the more attention that's paid to him, 307 00:15:15.061 --> 00:15:17.061 the more he likes it. 308 00:15:17.061 --> 00:15:19.163 I mean, I remember an interview with Charlie Munger, who recently passed away, 309 00:15:20.003 --> 00:15:22.003 in which he was asked about Trump as president. 310 00:15:22.123 --> 00:15:24.864 And the word he used, I think, was vainglory or vainglorious. 311 00:15:25.384 --> 00:15:26.084 You know what I mean? 312 00:15:26.660 --> 00:15:29.142 And I think that is the kind of thing you must think of in your mind. 313 00:15:29.782 --> 00:15:34.124 Trump isn't quite the perfect agent of the U.S. 314 00:15:34.364 --> 00:15:36.746 in terms of representing the U.S.'s interest at all times. 315 00:15:37.166 --> 00:15:42.069 And sometimes he's representing what he thinks is probably going to feel good for 316 00:15:42.069 --> 00:15:44.069 himself as well, you know, in a roundabout way. 317 00:15:44.069 --> 00:15:48.212 And one of the things that he would like to do is have Carney and have Starmer and 318 00:15:48.212 --> 00:15:50.212 have Macron and have every, like, you know, 319 00:15:50.212 --> 00:15:53.855 leader in the world come to him and kind of play nice, take the photos and, you 320 00:15:53.855 --> 00:15:55.855 know, have to listen to what he says. 321 00:15:55.855 --> 00:15:59.771 and I think the longer that holds out the better he feels about things not the worst 322 00:15:59.771 --> 00:16:01.771 the world 323 00:16:01.771 --> 00:16:02.473 economy does you know what i mean well carney 324 00:16:02.593 --> 00:16:09.478 certainly didn't get run over by by trump at all in fact i think carney came out 325 00:16:09.478 --> 00:16:11.478 better if he'd been allowed to talk 326 00:16:11.478 --> 00:16:16.463 which he wasn't because trump just kept on and on and on but uh carney looked great 327 00:16:16.463 --> 00:16:18.463 uh there's there's two leaders that have 328 00:16:18.463 --> 00:16:19.925 suddenly emerged in the world that i have that 329 00:16:19.985 --> 00:16:24.668 give me hope and it's mertz in germany and it's uh carney in Canada. 330 00:16:24.848 --> 00:16:25.548 I like that. 331 00:16:25.548 --> 00:16:30.831 And I also like the fact that Australia said no to the right wingers and actually 332 00:16:30.831 --> 00:16:32.831 went even, 333 00:16:32.831 --> 00:16:33.872 even further left with Albanese's landslide victory. 334 00:16:34.952 --> 00:16:37.954 The Mexican PM is also, she's okay. 335 00:16:37.955 --> 00:16:40.395 That's, um, I can't remember her name. 336 00:16:40.895 --> 00:16:41.975 It's a complicated one. 337 00:16:43.436 --> 00:16:44.316 Name that. 338 00:16:44.317 --> 00:16:45.017 Yeah. 339 00:16:45.017 --> 00:16:48.238 She's, she's, she's, she's no pushover as well. 340 00:16:48.878 --> 00:16:51.599 And, uh, they give him a run for his money. 341 00:16:51.639 --> 00:16:55.289 And I, I, I just, I, I don't think he's got intelligence. 342 00:16:55.290 --> 00:16:59.130 You know, the only thing he can say, this is the best deal we've ever done. 343 00:16:59.150 --> 00:17:00.871 You know, he knows he's a bad boy. 344 00:17:01.271 --> 00:17:02.672 He's a naughty boy or something. 345 00:17:02.673 --> 00:17:06.333 I mean, the language he uses is almost infantile. 346 00:17:09.874 --> 00:17:15.537 Listen, he can keep us on the, you know, we can extend this podcast for three days 347 00:17:15.537 --> 00:17:17.537 if you want to continue along. 348 00:17:17.758 --> 00:17:23.460 We haven't even touched on the fact that he's being caught out and that he's just 349 00:17:24.360 --> 00:17:31.222 you know he's just gone not a step too far I think he's out of his depth he suddenly 350 00:17:31.222 --> 00:17:33.222 found people that are standing 351 00:17:33.222 --> 00:17:38.084 up to him and saying no you're not going to push this one that far yeah and we have 352 00:17:38.084 --> 00:17:40.084 to draw a line under Trump now unfortunately we 353 00:17:40.084 --> 00:17:41.945 haven't even mentioned Alcatraz we haven't mentioned the 354 00:17:41.985 --> 00:17:48.847 fact that he said during the interview I'm a very artistic person which was 355 00:17:48.847 --> 00:17:50.847 extraordinary try telling Andy Warhol that who he 356 00:17:50.847 --> 00:17:55.473 commissioned to do a lot of artworks for the newly being newly built Trump Tower 357 00:17:55.473 --> 00:17:57.473 and Trump said no 358 00:17:57.473 --> 00:18:02.696 I don't like them they don't go with my color scheme he's really really 359 00:18:02.816 --> 00:18:09.759 artistic yeah you know that in gold yeah it's all done in gold I mean you know 360 00:18:09.759 --> 00:18:11.759 anyway but I want to tell you 361 00:18:11.759 --> 00:18:14.361 one thing Viv, Lindsay, I walked through the whole of New York 362 00:18:14.901 --> 00:18:21.744 I walked through Boston I did a lot of walking I did not see one mega cap very 363 00:18:21.744 --> 00:18:21.984 good 364 00:18:23.128 --> 00:18:26.791 I did not see one person wearing a mega cap. 365 00:18:26.811 --> 00:18:32.836 I probably, if I went to the back of those places, you know, where they sell to 366 00:18:32.836 --> 00:18:34.836 tourists, nobody wears a t-shirt. 367 00:18:34.836 --> 00:18:36.478 Nobody wears anything related to Trump. 368 00:18:37.279 --> 00:18:38.440 Yeah, misrepresentative. 369 00:18:38.460 --> 00:18:43.984 I think if you've gone to Missouri or Mississippi or Alabama or Arkansas or 370 00:18:43.984 --> 00:18:45.984 something like that, 371 00:18:45.984 --> 00:18:46.546 you would have probably been chipping around. 372 00:18:46.926 --> 00:18:48.047 Yeah, but I see what you mean. 373 00:18:48.067 --> 00:18:48.928 There you are. 374 00:18:49.392 --> 00:18:51.814 Okay, Viv, how have the tech stocks been doing? 375 00:18:51.974 --> 00:18:54.916 Obviously not so well, but also have recovered somewhat. 376 00:18:55.817 --> 00:18:56.777 Oh, yeah, significantly. 377 00:18:56.857 --> 00:19:03.002 I mean, if you look at, like we talked about, one of my big holdings, Palantir, 378 00:19:03.002 --> 00:19:05.002 it came down the last couple of days. 379 00:19:05.002 --> 00:19:06.904 But even if you were to look at it over the last, say, month or so, 380 00:19:06.984 --> 00:19:13.549 you're seeing huge returns coming through on that stock, up in the last month, 52%. 381 00:19:13.569 --> 00:19:16.891 Very good. 382 00:19:16.892 --> 00:19:17.932 Even like Tesla has come back. 383 00:19:18.032 --> 00:19:24.577 quite strongly it's down for the year but it's up in the last month quite nicely 384 00:19:24.577 --> 00:19:26.577 nvidia uh you know we talked about microsoft 385 00:19:26.577 --> 00:19:31.803 the one thing i do uh what i point out is the fact that if you look at the companies 386 00:19:31.803 --> 00:19:33.803 that doing well the company's not doing well a lot of the rewards are 387 00:19:33.803 --> 00:19:37.088 coming through i think from what's happening around uh you know um ai 388 00:19:37.088 --> 00:19:39.088 especially uh 389 00:19:39.088 --> 00:19:43.994 so you have like amazon doing really really well in terms of what you think 390 00:19:43.994 --> 00:19:45.994 their overall you know performance is being and then the market looks and says 391 00:19:45.994 --> 00:19:47.994 hey what's happening 392 00:19:47.994 --> 00:19:49.994 with that cloud business and then they They may be making notes. 393 00:19:49.994 --> 00:19:51.994 punishing the company a little bit for that, you know. 394 00:19:51.994 --> 00:19:55.442 And at the same time, you see other companies that have results that you think 395 00:19:55.442 --> 00:19:57.442 are reasonably in line, but then they see their AI sector, 396 00:19:57.442 --> 00:20:00.285 which is pretty much a metaphor for a proxy for their cloud business here. 397 00:20:00.665 --> 00:20:03.607 And then they'd be rewarding the company because of that, you know, our 398 00:20:03.607 --> 00:20:03.707 performance. 399 00:20:04.328 --> 00:20:05.889 So that I think is really key. 400 00:20:05.969 --> 00:20:10.952 So look, I mean, I do think that the market is still looking beyond this 401 00:20:10.952 --> 00:20:12.952 current chaos. 402 00:20:12.952 --> 00:20:16.376 I think that if you had to look maybe 10, 20 years down the line, this period of 403 00:20:16.376 --> 00:20:18.376 time is going to be... 404 00:20:18.376 --> 00:20:19.963 more, except for the fact that we had a big technological revolution happening at 405 00:20:19.963 --> 00:20:20.283 the time. 406 00:20:20.384 --> 00:20:23.029 And I mean, do you really care who was really in charge? 407 00:20:23.650 --> 00:20:24.350 Was it George W. 408 00:20:24.350 --> 00:20:28.059 Bush or Bill Clinton at the start of Google or Amazon's terms? 409 00:20:28.060 --> 00:20:28.760 You know what I mean? 410 00:20:29.500 --> 00:20:32.763 20 years later, those companies are going to be green-grey. 411 00:20:33.043 --> 00:20:34.704 I think tech is going to be the same way. 412 00:20:34.705 --> 00:20:39.167 20 years from now, you might not remember the name of Trump that well in terms of 413 00:20:39.167 --> 00:20:41.167 like who exactly was 414 00:20:41.167 --> 00:20:43.049 there at the start of opening eyes rise or whatever the new company is going to be. 415 00:20:43.570 --> 00:20:47.312 But you will definitely be seeing those companies dominating the world. 416 00:20:47.352 --> 00:20:48.052 SL. 417 00:20:48.193 --> 00:20:52.256 South Africa, David, you're probably the wrong person to go to about South Africa. 418 00:20:52.276 --> 00:20:54.257 So I'll briefly stick with you Viv on this one. 419 00:20:54.258 --> 00:20:57.239 We've had manufacturing output today down 0.8% year on year. 420 00:20:57.599 --> 00:20:58.500 You've got PMI. 421 00:20:58.940 --> 00:21:01.701 mired below 50 and indeed below 45. 422 00:21:01.702 --> 00:21:02.402 So that's not good. 423 00:21:02.621 --> 00:21:03.761 Inflation under control. 424 00:21:03.801 --> 00:21:08.143 So we will get a couple of interest rate cuts, I think, this year from the South 425 00:21:08.143 --> 00:21:10.143 African Reserve Bank. 426 00:21:10.143 --> 00:21:14.624 Bank of England cut today by 2.25%. And the Fed last night, of course, 427 00:21:14.644 --> 00:21:17.345 keeping it on hold, which David has already mentioned. 428 00:21:17.346 --> 00:21:20.606 But Viv, South Africa, it's sort of treading water, isn't it? 429 00:21:21.406 --> 00:21:23.667 I mean, but also you see the round incredibly strong. 430 00:21:23.887 --> 00:21:24.587 Yes. 431 00:21:24.587 --> 00:21:27.688 I mean, not against the euro and the pound, mind you, but against the dollar. 432 00:21:28.588 --> 00:21:35.550 uh we we are basically you know approaching 18 again uh you know so the uh 433 00:21:35.550 --> 00:21:35.630 that is one thing 434 00:21:35.630 --> 00:21:42.412 to look at and i think that's one reason we've seen for instance some of these gold 435 00:21:42.412 --> 00:21:44.412 stocks under pressure today because of the fact that uh you know everything in in in 436 00:21:44.412 --> 00:21:46.412 wrong terms 437 00:21:46.412 --> 00:21:48.554 they were they seeing them you know under a bit of uh issue look with africa i i i'm 438 00:21:48.554 --> 00:21:48.714 i'm 439 00:21:49.114 --> 00:21:53.076 I sadly have lost much hope for a significant recovery in this country. 440 00:21:54.396 --> 00:21:56.137 We've seen the change of the leadership. 441 00:21:56.177 --> 00:21:57.438 We've seen the GNU come into play. 442 00:21:57.718 --> 00:22:02.402 And yet there have been movements like we've seen load shedding diminish to a 443 00:22:02.402 --> 00:22:04.402 large extent, though now they say they might be coming back. 444 00:22:04.402 --> 00:22:05.003 But we have not seen growth recover. 445 00:22:05.544 --> 00:22:07.465 It's been a year and we have not seen growth recover. 446 00:22:07.785 --> 00:22:11.708 And for us to recover in terms of growth rates, we can see 3%, 4%, 5%, not 1.5% 447 00:22:14.530 --> 00:22:16.251 versus 1% or 1.52% versus 1.32%. 448 00:22:16.892 --> 00:22:20.594 We want to see 5% growth rates, 3% growth rates at least. 449 00:22:21.355 --> 00:22:23.056 And I don't think that is foreseeable. 450 00:22:23.496 --> 00:22:24.896 at least in the near term for us in Africa. 451 00:22:25.837 --> 00:22:27.737 David, you'll probably echo those sentiments, won't you? 452 00:22:28.337 --> 00:22:32.318 I've given up a long time on the SA market. 453 00:22:33.059 --> 00:22:39.500 I don't want to take anything away by the efforts that are being made by so many 454 00:22:39.500 --> 00:22:41.500 businesses trying to survive or prosper 455 00:22:41.500 --> 00:22:41.861 in an economy that's going nowhere. 456 00:22:42.201 --> 00:22:49.183 But year after year, I don't know how many years, I think the only decent year we had 457 00:22:49.183 --> 00:22:51.183 was post-COVID, but you've got to consider the one before. 458 00:22:51.183 --> 00:22:52.244 But I mean, take that out the equation. 459 00:22:53.060 --> 00:22:57.103 This country's gone nowhere, and nor is there any effort to get up growth. 460 00:22:58.703 --> 00:23:05.287 They're still so driven by political change, political transition, 461 00:23:05.367 --> 00:23:10.230 those kind of ideological outlooks or strategies. 462 00:23:10.750 --> 00:23:16.513 And until you take that away and say, listen, we want to get this company to 463 00:23:16.513 --> 00:23:16.733 grow, 464 00:23:17.013 --> 00:23:21.836 we want to get this country back to where it should be, nothing's going to happen. 465 00:23:22.757 --> 00:23:27.480 You've got to get rid of the politics and stop worrying about voters and things like 466 00:23:27.480 --> 00:23:27.699 that. 467 00:23:28.621 --> 00:23:33.444 I can't find anything here that really attracts my attention. 468 00:23:34.124 --> 00:23:37.767 I know there are some good numbers from ABM there, but I think that's all bottom 469 00:23:37.767 --> 00:23:37.886 line. 470 00:23:38.107 --> 00:23:39.228 Sorry, not top line stuff. 471 00:23:39.288 --> 00:23:40.008 That's bottom line. 472 00:23:40.009 --> 00:23:40.969 I see volumes down. 473 00:23:41.489 --> 00:23:42.189 Decent. 474 00:23:42.189 --> 00:23:46.173 But, Lindsay, there's nothing to get your teeth into here. 475 00:23:46.193 --> 00:23:50.015 There's no business here that's going to make it on the international stage. 476 00:23:50.295 --> 00:23:53.357 that's going to be one that foreigners are going to want to hold. 477 00:23:54.097 --> 00:24:00.719 And as an emerging market, I think there's better around if you want to go into 478 00:24:00.719 --> 00:24:02.719 emerging markets, which is not where I want to be. 479 00:24:02.719 --> 00:24:03.039 Okay. 480 00:24:03.040 --> 00:24:04.520 Yes, sorry, Viv, go on. 481 00:24:04.580 --> 00:24:05.340 I'll pass, David. 482 00:24:05.600 --> 00:24:12.542 You see that article today about, from Inigo Donners, was quoted about South 483 00:24:12.542 --> 00:24:14.542 Africa's highest, 484 00:24:14.542 --> 00:24:16.542 about these people. 485 00:24:16.542 --> 00:24:20.184 He says there's only 2,850 people in South Africa with assets. 486 00:24:20.404 --> 00:24:21.625 worth more than 50 million rounds. 487 00:24:21.865 --> 00:24:22.585 I saw that. 488 00:24:22.725 --> 00:24:23.606 I saw that, yeah. 489 00:24:23.607 --> 00:24:24.307 Is that all? 490 00:24:24.926 --> 00:24:26.207 That seems a very small number. 491 00:24:26.227 --> 00:24:30.849 From a tax base, what the worry is that if you introduce a wealth tax, they're gone. 492 00:24:30.850 --> 00:24:31.769 They're gone. 493 00:24:31.770 --> 00:24:34.171 Because most of the assets, I think he said, they're offshore. 494 00:24:34.172 --> 00:24:34.971 Yeah, but half of them are gone. 495 00:24:34.972 --> 00:24:35.672 Yeah. 496 00:24:35.672 --> 00:24:41.614 But I'm saying, think of it this way, $50 million is basically, 50 million rounds, 497 00:24:41.614 --> 00:24:41.994 sorry, 498 00:24:41.994 --> 00:24:43.295 is not even $3 million. 499 00:24:43.775 --> 00:24:44.475 No, no. 500 00:24:44.475 --> 00:24:45.556 Not even $3 million. 501 00:24:45.576 --> 00:24:46.276 No. 502 00:24:46.276 --> 00:24:51.081 You're talking about less than 3,000 people in this entire country have more 503 00:24:51.081 --> 00:24:53.081 than $3 million. 504 00:24:53.081 --> 00:24:53.223 Yeah. 505 00:24:53.683 --> 00:24:54.404 I know. 506 00:24:54.984 --> 00:24:56.686 We act richer than we actually are. 507 00:24:57.286 --> 00:25:04.032 And I just want to mention one thing, by the by, on that, is that 508 00:25:05.574 --> 00:25:12.160 I always like to walk through the department stores, Nordstrom or 509 00:25:12.160 --> 00:25:14.160 Bloomingdale's and so on, And you see... 510 00:25:14.160 --> 00:25:19.169 When we look at the luxury sector, you see wealth there, names there that don't even 511 00:25:19.169 --> 00:25:21.169 appear in South Africa. 512 00:25:21.169 --> 00:25:22.672 They wouldn't appear simply because they're beyond the pocket of anybody. 513 00:25:22.792 --> 00:25:27.635 Yes, you've got LVMH and you've got Gucci and places like that because they're bags, 514 00:25:27.635 --> 00:25:29.635 they sell bags. 515 00:25:29.635 --> 00:25:31.635 This is at a different level. 516 00:25:31.635 --> 00:25:33.780 And it just exposes the wealth that is in America. 517 00:25:35.521 --> 00:25:41.684 They had the Met Gala, I think it was on Sunday evening, Monday evening, I don't 518 00:25:41.684 --> 00:25:43.684 know, which is just something else. 519 00:25:43.684 --> 00:25:45.206 And you kind of see, what's the word, 520 00:25:47.848 --> 00:25:51.290 just the fashions, you know, the amount of money that goes in. 521 00:25:51.390 --> 00:25:56.253 It's just something staggering, the amount that they actually raise, the amount of 522 00:25:56.253 --> 00:25:58.253 money they raise. 523 00:25:58.253 --> 00:25:59.495 And we're a poor nation, you know, very poor. 524 00:26:00.275 --> 00:26:06.840 And, and, uh, it's it's almost self-inflicted because we've allowed that 525 00:26:06.840 --> 00:26:08.840 to happen but you know 526 00:26:08.840 --> 00:26:10.840 what this says is is true it's 527 00:26:10.840 --> 00:26:15.788 uh we in in world in world uh terms this is we're not wealthy our wealthy are not 528 00:26:15.788 --> 00:26:17.788 wealth okay that 529 00:26:17.788 --> 00:26:22.534 is a starting number i didn't know that that's a tiny amount of people goodness me 530 00:26:22.534 --> 00:26:24.534 okay gentlemen let's have a look at the markets now the aforementioned round 531 00:26:24.534 --> 00:26:29.460 brought up by viv uh here we go dollar round is 1816 and that's a half a percent 532 00:26:29.460 --> 00:26:31.460 fall for the us stolen 533 00:26:31.460 --> 00:26:34.602 British pound against the RAND, 24.16, and that's a 0.4% fall for the pound. 534 00:26:34.622 --> 00:26:41.165 And the euro has fallen against the RAND to go to 20.48, which is down three 535 00:26:41.165 --> 00:26:43.165 quarters of a percent for the euro. 536 00:26:43.165 --> 00:26:46.207 Euro dollar, 1.1275, the euro down a quarter there. 537 00:26:46.387 --> 00:26:52.830 Gold price in dollar terms has risen by four and a quarter percent, $136.50, if my 538 00:26:52.830 --> 00:26:54.830 screen is right. 539 00:26:54.830 --> 00:26:56.830 Anyway, it's $33.51. 540 00:26:56.830 --> 00:26:58.830 Platinum. 541 00:26:58.830 --> 00:26:59.887 I still can't make it through the four-figure mark. 542 00:26:59.927 --> 00:27:04.530 $9.86, it's up a couple of percent, $20 an ounce, but not much. 543 00:27:05.311 --> 00:27:10.595 Palladium up 1% or $9.87 per ounce, 544 00:27:10.675 --> 00:27:12.377 nearly $10 up on the day. 545 00:27:12.397 --> 00:27:15.179 The oil price has been very, very interesting, 546 00:27:15.659 --> 00:27:19.803 especially for the inflation equation and interest rate policy worldwide. 547 00:27:20.043 --> 00:27:23.486 Brent crude oil at the moment having a good day for a change, up 2.5%. 548 00:27:23.487 --> 00:27:28.649 $62.64 And West Texas crude below 60 still, 549 00:27:29.029 --> 00:27:33.411 $59.71, but also having a good day up nearly 3%. 550 00:27:34.251 --> 00:27:35.312 What else have we got here? 551 00:27:35.572 --> 00:27:37.393 Gas prices up a bit also. 552 00:27:37.453 --> 00:27:41.014 So the energy complex doing well, but otherwise not much. 553 00:27:41.254 --> 00:27:47.076 S&P 500 futures, 56.78, up 0.9%. 554 00:27:47.096 --> 00:27:49.517 US 10-year bond creeping higher again. 555 00:27:49.537 --> 00:27:51.838 The yield, that is, 4.33%. 556 00:27:51.839 --> 00:27:53.939 South African 10-year, 10.83. 557 00:27:54.659 --> 00:27:58.662 and what else we got Bitcoin, we're very close to 100,000 this morning. 558 00:27:58.722 --> 00:27:59.902 Oh, it's back there again now. 559 00:28:00.022 --> 00:28:00.722 Look at that thing. 560 00:28:01.043 --> 00:28:01.763 Above 100. 561 00:28:03.124 --> 00:28:07.207 I don't understand it. 562 00:28:07.208 --> 00:28:09.228 100,770, up nearly 4%. 563 00:28:09.588 --> 00:28:10.969 Some of the major banks and 564 00:28:11.409 --> 00:28:16.632 Bitcoin brokers and things were all asked to get their forecast for 2025. 565 00:28:16.993 --> 00:28:22.496 One went as high as 500,000 in the next year, which is outlandish, of course. 566 00:28:23.016 --> 00:28:27.460 None was below about 150 to 200. 567 00:28:27.560 --> 00:28:28.921 Viv, again, you're studious. 568 00:28:29.602 --> 00:28:30.302 What do you make of it? 569 00:28:30.702 --> 00:28:37.108 Look, I mean, I think I've talked to you guys before that there's two things a 570 00:28:37.108 --> 00:28:39.108 country must have, which is basically a currency and an army. 571 00:28:39.108 --> 00:28:41.091 The only time you see a non-currency taking, you know, 572 00:28:41.171 --> 00:28:44.994 really being strong in any country is when that country's government is weak. 573 00:28:45.214 --> 00:28:51.760 That's why Bitcoin is useful in places like, you know, in Africa where you have 574 00:28:51.760 --> 00:28:53.760 bad governments and so on, in places in Asia. 575 00:28:53.760 --> 00:28:56.661 Even in places like China and Russia, where people want to have the ability to 576 00:28:56.661 --> 00:28:58.661 get their money out of the country. 577 00:28:58.661 --> 00:29:03.303 What Trump is doing with regards to the dollar is weakening the trustworthiness of 578 00:29:03.303 --> 00:29:03.544 the dollar. 579 00:29:03.723 --> 00:29:09.885 And the fact that he's also going after the enforcement arm of places like the IRS 580 00:29:09.885 --> 00:29:11.885 is significant. 581 00:29:11.885 --> 00:29:16.727 Because the only way that Bitcoin becomes $500 million and so on is because people 582 00:29:16.727 --> 00:29:18.727 see ways to get around 583 00:29:18.727 --> 00:29:19.267 certain restrictions and regulations by using Bitcoin. 584 00:29:19.968 --> 00:29:21.148 And that only happens here. 585 00:29:21.188 --> 00:29:23.209 I think you can get away with it because the government is weak. 586 00:29:23.769 --> 00:29:25.069 And that is to be concerned about. 587 00:29:25.349 --> 00:29:26.590 If the weaker the U.S. 588 00:29:26.690 --> 00:29:28.730 enforcement is, the stronger Bitcoin will be. 589 00:29:29.770 --> 00:29:30.731 Very well said. 590 00:29:30.771 --> 00:29:37.513 And also where they want to confiscate assets, where there's a fear that the 591 00:29:37.513 --> 00:29:39.513 assets might be confiscated, as you say, by the IRS, et cetera. 592 00:29:39.513 --> 00:29:44.015 You know, the Russians at the time of the Ukraine or the war, everybody started to, 593 00:29:44.015 --> 00:29:46.015 you know, when you started to take away 594 00:29:46.015 --> 00:29:48.896 Russian assets, that's when they started to buy things like Bitcoin or gold, you 595 00:29:48.896 --> 00:29:49.356 know. 596 00:29:49.460 --> 00:29:51.801 So, yeah, it is as long as Trump's around. 597 00:29:51.861 --> 00:29:57.063 I'm just watching him through the corner of my eye give this press conference and 598 00:29:57.063 --> 00:29:59.063 the headlines that come there. 599 00:29:59.063 --> 00:30:01.125 You know, the whole thing is it's just everything he makes up on the trot. 600 00:30:01.205 --> 00:30:04.887 I don't think there's anything substantial to the headlines that are coming. 601 00:30:04.888 --> 00:30:05.588 And I mean it. 602 00:30:06.828 --> 00:30:13.031 And in any case, you know, or maybe on a parting note on this, I think all these 603 00:30:13.031 --> 00:30:15.031 trade deals, you know what happens? 604 00:30:15.031 --> 00:30:17.031 They make their deals. 605 00:30:17.031 --> 00:30:19.031 There's no detail to it. 606 00:30:19.031 --> 00:30:22.262 And there's a commitment now to buy $10 billion worth of Boeing. 607 00:30:22.503 --> 00:30:23.444 Who's going to buy that? 608 00:30:24.525 --> 00:30:26.447 British Airways, that's an independent company. 609 00:30:27.168 --> 00:30:28.209 You know, who's going to do it? 610 00:30:28.770 --> 00:30:29.591 Do you know what I'm saying? 611 00:30:29.611 --> 00:30:31.193 They've got no control. 612 00:30:31.253 --> 00:30:34.516 The British government does a deal with the American government. 613 00:30:34.556 --> 00:30:37.680 At the end, it's up to the companies themselves to do it. 614 00:30:38.184 --> 00:30:40.786 unless there's something very attractive for them to buy Boeing. 615 00:30:41.507 --> 00:30:46.051 So at the end of the day, I think all of these things just evaporate. 616 00:30:46.371 --> 00:30:47.812 They evaporate into the ether. 617 00:30:47.892 --> 00:30:50.754 You all make these deals, everybody feels happy and nothing's done. 618 00:30:50.794 --> 00:30:53.056 Sorry for being so cynical. 619 00:30:53.136 --> 00:30:55.739 The reason the UK have done it is because, first of all, 620 00:30:56.279 --> 00:31:02.464 the tariffs that were imposed upon the UK were nothing compared to other countries, 621 00:31:02.464 --> 00:31:04.464 particularly China, obviously. 622 00:31:04.464 --> 00:31:07.208 And also, Sakhir Starmer is a simpering sycophant. 623 00:31:07.428 --> 00:31:10.610 And he's touching his arm and everything when he meets him. 624 00:31:10.650 --> 00:31:11.350 Trump, that is. 625 00:31:11.611 --> 00:31:15.374 And he says, oh, by the way, here's an invitation to meet the king. 626 00:31:15.375 --> 00:31:17.015 And you can stay at Balmoral and everything. 627 00:31:17.016 --> 00:31:18.736 And so Trump says, oh, that's good. 628 00:31:19.197 --> 00:31:21.999 We'll give you a favorable trade deal and you'll be first. 629 00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:23.019 But that's the only reason. 630 00:31:23.380 --> 00:31:24.580 It's not consequential. 631 00:31:24.721 --> 00:31:25.421 It really isn't. 632 00:31:25.421 --> 00:31:27.603 I mean, for some British businesses, yes. 633 00:31:27.843 --> 00:31:31.485 But if you really want to know what's going on with trade, I don't know where 634 00:31:31.485 --> 00:31:33.485 you can get it. 635 00:31:33.485 --> 00:31:34.728 But I saw a very decent mini documentary about. 636 00:31:35.248 --> 00:31:40.873 The recent movements of trade through the Los Angeles port, not looking good 637 00:31:40.873 --> 00:31:42.873 whatsoever. 638 00:31:42.873 --> 00:31:48.919 You know, the containers coming in from China are full, 35 percent down on the 639 00:31:48.919 --> 00:31:50.919 number of containers coming in. 640 00:31:50.919 --> 00:31:52.919 So keep an eye on that. 641 00:31:52.919 --> 00:31:53.143 That'll tell you what's going on with trade and tariffs, I think. 642 00:31:53.403 --> 00:31:54.103 Los Angeles. 643 00:31:54.864 --> 00:31:59.908 Wait until the dock workers who voted for him suddenly find that they're out of a 644 00:31:59.908 --> 00:32:01.908 job, you know, 645 00:32:01.908 --> 00:32:03.331 up in Seattle and all the other places, all the other ports. 646 00:32:03.531 --> 00:32:04.452 It's exactly right. 647 00:32:04.972 --> 00:32:11.638 When he starts to interfere with trade from China and the ships are not coming 648 00:32:11.638 --> 00:32:13.638 in, as you say, believe me, 649 00:32:13.638 --> 00:32:15.638 there's going to be consequences. 650 00:32:15.638 --> 00:32:17.638 So it's a very good point you brought up there. 651 00:32:17.638 --> 00:32:21.906 On the JSC today, on the upside, AB InBev, you mentioned that, David, 1.8% higher. 652 00:32:21.946 --> 00:32:24.489 MC Group, MultiChoice, up 1.7%. 653 00:32:24.490 --> 00:32:28.692 It's done absolutely nothing since Canal Plus started nibbling away. 654 00:32:29.433 --> 00:32:30.133 Good luck with that. 655 00:32:30.634 --> 00:32:32.195 Mondi up one and a quarter. 656 00:32:32.335 --> 00:32:34.040 data check 1.1. 657 00:32:34.301 --> 00:32:41.084 SAPI on the downside was down over 10%, closed down just around about 9%, Premier 658 00:32:41.084 --> 00:32:43.084 down 4%, Harmony down 4%, 659 00:32:43.084 --> 00:32:45.567 Telcom down 3%, and Vodacom down nearly 3% as well. 660 00:32:46.127 --> 00:32:47.628 So steady as she goes, gentlemen. 661 00:32:47.629 --> 00:32:48.329 What do you think, Viv? 662 00:32:48.329 --> 00:32:49.589 You're just sticking to your guns, yeah? 663 00:32:50.729 --> 00:32:51.429 Look, I am. 664 00:32:51.510 --> 00:32:57.513 I think that, in fact, I'm doing a presentation really soon about AI, and 665 00:32:57.513 --> 00:32:59.513 I've just looked at the stuff coming out here. 666 00:32:59.513 --> 00:33:01.255 The technology includes new, could easily improve gangbusters. 667 00:33:01.256 --> 00:33:02.596 And the one thing I point to is this, right? 668 00:33:04.045 --> 00:33:06.427 The internet was about communication. 669 00:33:06.507 --> 00:33:08.769 There's no way communication is as important as transport. 670 00:33:09.309 --> 00:33:11.971 And we're about to have transport being revolutionized in the next couple of 671 00:33:11.971 --> 00:33:12.412 years. 672 00:33:12.492 --> 00:33:15.274 Waymo is doing 1.3 million trips a month. 673 00:33:16.615 --> 00:33:20.238 I mean, you can imagine that you and your entire life have not taken 1.3 million 674 00:33:20.238 --> 00:33:20.479 trips. 675 00:33:20.959 --> 00:33:22.400 And Waymo is doing that every month. 676 00:33:22.860 --> 00:33:29.105 And with 1.3 million trips, what that translates to is that these guys are able 677 00:33:29.105 --> 00:33:31.105 to do that much travel with almost no incident that we know about. 678 00:33:31.105 --> 00:33:32.008 There's no big stories about Waymo crashing, Waymo doing this, Waymo doing 679 00:33:32.008 --> 00:33:32.368 that. 680 00:33:32.544 --> 00:33:34.765 That kind of makes me think that the technology is mature. 681 00:33:35.446 --> 00:33:40.749 And if that is true, and we are seeing driverless vehicles coming into play in a 682 00:33:40.749 --> 00:33:42.749 real big way, 683 00:33:42.749 --> 00:33:43.530 expect something at least as big as the internet revolution. 684 00:33:43.590 --> 00:33:44.290 Because think about it. 685 00:33:44.471 --> 00:33:45.911 The number one job in the world is driver. 686 00:33:46.512 --> 00:33:49.253 Forklift driver, truck driver, ship driver, plane driver. 687 00:33:49.273 --> 00:33:49.973 You know what I mean? 688 00:33:50.414 --> 00:33:54.696 And it seems right now that that is something that AI has conquered, 689 00:33:54.696 --> 00:33:56.696 shockingly enough. 690 00:33:56.696 --> 00:33:58.696 Okay. 691 00:33:58.696 --> 00:34:00.696 Well, good luck with the presentation. 692 00:34:00.696 --> 00:34:02.696 David, what are you up to? 693 00:34:02.696 --> 00:34:04.696 I'm still madly. 694 00:34:04.696 --> 00:34:05.062 positive on AI and I think it's the only thing that will keep America great. 695 00:34:05.622 --> 00:34:06.423 Forget about Trump. 696 00:34:07.103 --> 00:34:10.325 It's only going to be the big tech, the mega tech companies. 697 00:34:10.505 --> 00:34:15.948 And you saw their results and I think they're going to continue. 698 00:34:16.788 --> 00:34:22.311 Jensen Wang has become my hero, although he's trying to creep up Trump's backside. 699 00:34:22.672 --> 00:34:24.653 That hurt me, but I forgive him. 700 00:34:25.013 --> 00:34:30.516 I think he's still got a brilliant company and I think the speech that he made 701 00:34:30.516 --> 00:34:32.516 talking about where texts going on at home. 702 00:34:32.516 --> 00:34:37.341 important it is to have data centers, to have the power driving those data centers, 703 00:34:37.341 --> 00:34:39.341 I think is very important. 704 00:34:39.341 --> 00:34:43.265 And that will define who America is, because with the AI that Viv was talking 705 00:34:43.265 --> 00:34:45.265 about, 706 00:34:45.265 --> 00:34:45.967 you need the data centers, you need that kind of data. 707 00:34:46.568 --> 00:34:49.930 And you can only do it if you expand and don't weaken that area. 708 00:34:50.370 --> 00:34:52.512 So I think that's still going to be the future. 709 00:34:52.513 --> 00:34:57.956 And as Viv says, within a year from now, slightly over, when they have the 710 00:34:57.956 --> 00:34:59.956 midterms. 711 00:34:59.956 --> 00:35:01.956 Unfortunately, Mr. 712 00:35:01.956 --> 00:35:04.018 Trump's going to have no power because for whatever reason, the Democrats will come 713 00:35:04.018 --> 00:35:04.338 in, 714 00:35:04.499 --> 00:35:08.200 even though they're weaker than even the Republican Party is at the moment. 715 00:35:08.921 --> 00:35:09.621 Okay. 716 00:35:09.621 --> 00:35:10.981 On that note, gentlemen, thank you very much. 717 00:35:11.021 --> 00:35:11.962 Welcome back, both of you. 718 00:35:12.142 --> 00:35:14.343 And we'll reestablish ourselves as a trio. 719 00:35:15.063 --> 00:35:17.784 Same time next Thursday for the five o'clock shadow. 720 00:35:18.345 --> 00:35:25.308 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 721 00:35:25.308 --> 00:35:27.308 various contributors and do not reflect the policy 722 00:35:27.308 --> 00:35:29.308 position. 723 00:35:29.308 --> 00:35:29.818 or opinion of any other agency, organization, employer, 724 00:35:30.158 --> 00:35:34.001 or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 725 00:35:34.461 --> 00:35:41.445 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 726 00:35:41.445 --> 00:35:43.445 entity other than the speaker or the author. 727 00:35:43.445 --> 00:35:47.609 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 728 00:35:47.609 --> 00:35:49.609 change, revision, 729 00:35:49.609 --> 00:35:49.750 and rethinking at any time. 730 00:35:50.070 --> 00:35:52.472 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.