WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:05.450 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.451 --> 00:00:11.771 Welcome, and today we are in conversation with Gail Daniel, Portfolio Manager for 3 00:00:11.771 --> 00:00:13.771 the 91 Managed Fund. 4 00:00:13.771 --> 00:00:16.573 What a time to be a Portfolio Manager, Gail, but we'll get to the contemporary 5 00:00:16.573 --> 00:00:18.573 matters in a moment. 6 00:00:18.573 --> 00:00:20.573 Let's look back a little bit, though. 7 00:00:20.573 --> 00:00:24.475 The Managed Fund had a fairly difficult Q2 and Q3 of 2024, but a strong recovery, 8 00:00:24.555 --> 00:00:26.156 thank goodness, since then. 9 00:00:26.216 --> 00:00:27.176 What were the reasons for... 10 00:00:27.456 --> 00:00:32.658 The underperformance, first of all, get that out of the way, and now the recent 11 00:00:32.658 --> 00:00:34.658 outperformance. 12 00:00:34.658 --> 00:00:35.980 Good morning, Lindsay, and thank you for the call. 13 00:00:36.160 --> 00:00:37.941 The fund underperformed in Q2 and Q3, 14 00:00:38.461 --> 00:00:44.624 basically on the back of what is looking more and more like a fairy tale of the 15 00:00:44.624 --> 00:00:44.925 GNU. 16 00:00:45.584 --> 00:00:52.027 So the local market anticipated a big rebound in GDP growth, a big rebound in 17 00:00:52.027 --> 00:00:52.147 earnings, 18 00:00:52.147 --> 00:00:53.368 took the shares up ahead of it. 19 00:00:53.408 --> 00:01:00.213 but particularly the small and mid-cap shares, which is quite hard for a large 20 00:01:00.213 --> 00:01:02.213 fund to buy, and where the market, 21 00:01:02.213 --> 00:01:07.418 you know, kind of has a fixation to the extent they create other indices like the 22 00:01:07.418 --> 00:01:09.418 SWICs, you know, anything but the large cap shares. 23 00:01:09.418 --> 00:01:11.418 And then that faded. 24 00:01:11.418 --> 00:01:15.343 Despite GDP growth came in, I think it was 0.6 or 0.7 last year, sub 1%, 25 00:01:15.463 --> 00:01:18.626 basically half of what the market was looking for at its height. 26 00:01:19.206 --> 00:01:25.774 And the earnings revisions didn't come through, to spot In some cases, 27 00:01:25.774 --> 00:01:27.774 particularly in the consumer sector, where we were very underweight, 28 00:01:27.774 --> 00:01:32.579 enormous tailwinds in terms of the two-part no-load shedding, interest rate 29 00:01:32.579 --> 00:01:34.579 cuts, 30 00:01:34.579 --> 00:01:39.344 low inflation, yet, you know, still with GDP per capita not growing in South 31 00:01:39.344 --> 00:01:41.344 Africa, the consumer has struggled. 32 00:01:41.344 --> 00:01:46.389 And as the growth fantasy kind of unwound, so the shares gave back a lot of that 33 00:01:46.389 --> 00:01:46.549 growth, 34 00:01:47.269 --> 00:01:51.292 we started doing a bit better, And then we benefited from... 35 00:01:52.449 --> 00:01:59.333 the initial Trump rally and we benefited from the resurgence in Europe in Q1 36 00:01:59.873 --> 00:02:06.397 on the offshore side and of course the RAND has been a bit weaker since almost 37 00:02:06.397 --> 00:02:06.477 touching 38 00:02:06.477 --> 00:02:09.679 17 I think in October we're 39 00:02:09.680 --> 00:02:16.604 now sitting at about mid-19s and that helps the fund as the fund has more 40 00:02:16.604 --> 00:02:18.604 offshore and peers. 41 00:02:18.604 --> 00:02:20.604 Now, the phrase U.S. 42 00:02:20.604 --> 00:02:22.169 exceptionalism, Gail, has sort of crept into our vocabulary, hasn't it? 43 00:02:22.650 --> 00:02:24.370 And yeah, it was an exceptional country. 44 00:02:24.670 --> 00:02:29.531 It still is or still has the potential to be exceptional, just not quite as 45 00:02:29.531 --> 00:02:31.531 exceptional as it was a while ago. 46 00:02:31.531 --> 00:02:32.552 Is it over or is this just a pause, do you think? 47 00:02:33.232 --> 00:02:35.153 Well, I think for now it's a pause. 48 00:02:35.633 --> 00:02:41.154 And if we look at what was exceptional about the U.S., and it is exceptional in 49 00:02:41.154 --> 00:02:43.154 quite a few ways, you know, 50 00:02:43.154 --> 00:02:46.336 it has incredibly deep financial markets, it's an incredible internal market, it's 51 00:02:46.336 --> 00:02:48.336 very gifted. 52 00:02:48.336 --> 00:02:49.402 naturally with resources and geography. 53 00:02:50.943 --> 00:02:55.145 But they also had a Fed that was exceptional, very quick to cut. 54 00:02:56.186 --> 00:03:02.130 Cut when unemployment was 4% and in Q3 when growth was still very strong. 55 00:03:02.750 --> 00:03:09.635 And a Fed, a treasury, which was prepared to have a deficit running close to 7% 56 00:03:10.356 --> 00:03:11.837 on 4% unemployment. 57 00:03:12.657 --> 00:03:14.859 So that generated this exceptional growth. 58 00:03:14.979 --> 00:03:16.740 And now in a move which actually... 59 00:03:17.000 --> 00:03:21.442 is also reasonably exceptional, is that you have a political system, 60 00:03:21.902 --> 00:03:24.283 which is an election cycle of four years, 61 00:03:24.764 --> 00:03:29.346 attempting to pull back the deficit and being prepared to risk growth. 62 00:03:29.566 --> 00:03:31.907 Now, you know, it's very tricky. 63 00:03:31.987 --> 00:03:33.127 It's walking a tightrope. 64 00:03:33.128 --> 00:03:35.008 It remains to be seen what happens there. 65 00:03:35.869 --> 00:03:39.490 So I can definitely oppose there in terms of US exceptionalism. 66 00:03:40.150 --> 00:03:43.372 But then if we extend the question, where else is exceptional? 67 00:03:44.544 --> 00:03:46.225 And I don't think China is exceptional. 68 00:03:46.365 --> 00:03:50.166 It's taking more and more debt to generate less and less growth. 69 00:03:51.107 --> 00:03:57.630 But the area that has been rudely awakened by Trump is definitely Europe. 70 00:03:58.090 --> 00:04:02.892 And I think you're going to see exceptional fiscal stimulus finally coming 71 00:04:02.892 --> 00:04:02.911 out, 72 00:04:03.052 --> 00:04:09.615 because Europe has to now put down its own defense after having for 80 years or so 73 00:04:09.615 --> 00:04:11.615 had the 74 00:04:11.615 --> 00:04:13.615 luxury of the U.S. 75 00:04:13.615 --> 00:04:15.615 paying for their defense so they could roll out. 76 00:04:15.615 --> 00:04:17.615 their lovely social system. 77 00:04:17.615 --> 00:04:21.322 And I think we will see exceptional fiscal stimulus in certain areas in Europe. 78 00:04:21.502 --> 00:04:27.646 So the funds had more Europe than it used to, and we kind of just picked it up from 79 00:04:27.646 --> 00:04:29.646 the bottom up, 80 00:04:29.646 --> 00:04:31.249 cheaper shares, good earnings growth. 81 00:04:31.250 --> 00:04:36.913 Yes, living in Europe as I am, it really does seem that the Trump factor, the 82 00:04:36.913 --> 00:04:38.913 recent Trump factor, 83 00:04:38.913 --> 00:04:40.913 has galvanised Europe. 84 00:04:40.913 --> 00:04:42.913 We'll see if it plays out anyway. 85 00:04:42.913 --> 00:04:44.913 Now, what about South Africa? 86 00:04:44.913 --> 00:04:46.913 You have been unattended. 87 00:04:46.913 --> 00:04:48.913 apologetically negative on the outlook for South Africa for some time. 88 00:04:48.913 --> 00:04:49.733 You remain underweight SA equities and bonds relative to your peers, 89 00:04:50.053 --> 00:04:56.481 but recent developments around the budget and GNU, they've probably sort of embedded 90 00:04:56.481 --> 00:04:58.481 that feeling that you have. 91 00:04:58.481 --> 00:05:00.481 Well. 92 00:05:00.481 --> 00:05:03.362 I think it's probably more apt to call it a GNDU, a government of this unison. 93 00:05:04.162 --> 00:05:09.606 And it really does appear that the ANCDA relationship is broken. 94 00:05:10.807 --> 00:05:17.772 And, you know, maybe the GNU continues, the ANC as we speak is trying to 95 00:05:17.772 --> 00:05:19.772 negotiate, it looks like a different one. 96 00:05:19.772 --> 00:05:26.078 But if you look at substance over form, I mean, what has the GNU generated? 97 00:05:26.626 --> 00:05:29.208 Has it generated faster economic growth? 98 00:05:29.669 --> 00:05:30.870 No, not yet. 99 00:05:31.270 --> 00:05:33.232 Has it generated increased investment? 100 00:05:33.312 --> 00:05:39.036 It was supposed to come, but with what's going on with the budget, it's looking 101 00:05:39.036 --> 00:05:41.036 increasingly unlikely. 102 00:05:41.036 --> 00:05:42.960 So I think we, you know, we're not even through on the budget. 103 00:05:43.020 --> 00:05:44.741 There's another vote that needs to come. 104 00:05:45.262 --> 00:05:51.026 All this is resulting in forecasts for GDP growth and earnings on local shares being 105 00:05:51.026 --> 00:05:51.106 cut. 106 00:05:51.807 --> 00:05:55.170 And GDP growth, which analysts were forecasting excess. 107 00:05:55.330 --> 00:05:58.212 2% for 2025 at the start of the year. 108 00:05:59.413 --> 00:06:04.757 You know, we were already at forecasts coming in 1.2, 1.4%, 109 00:06:04.758 --> 00:06:07.559 and you can easily make the case for sub-1%. 110 00:06:08.439 --> 00:06:15.204 I think it's directly impacting on confidence and this hope and this dream 111 00:06:15.204 --> 00:06:17.204 that everyone had that the 112 00:06:17.204 --> 00:06:20.648 DA and the ANC were so different and they could get together, and because they were 113 00:06:20.648 --> 00:06:22.648 different, it would work, 114 00:06:22.648 --> 00:06:23.590 has kind of been shown up just. 115 00:06:23.690 --> 00:06:25.451 to be completely unrealistic. 116 00:06:26.092 --> 00:06:30.194 So I think it's going to be very difficult for us here. 117 00:06:30.555 --> 00:06:37.479 You know, this is before you bring in the rapidly changing world of geopolitics, but 118 00:06:37.479 --> 00:06:39.479 very difficult for us to get growth surprises. 119 00:06:39.479 --> 00:06:42.303 To the upside, currency's been weakening and we're vulnerable there. 120 00:06:43.103 --> 00:06:49.207 So I just, those earnings forecasts didn't come through last year and they're not 121 00:06:49.207 --> 00:06:51.207 coming through now. 122 00:06:51.207 --> 00:06:53.110 And I'm afraid I cannot get excited. 123 00:06:53.738 --> 00:06:55.720 about the South African economy. 124 00:06:55.721 --> 00:07:01.365 Yeah, a lot of people would say, well, you're being unpatriotic, but of course 125 00:07:01.365 --> 00:07:03.365 that's absolute nonsense. 126 00:07:03.365 --> 00:07:05.365 You're being realistic. 127 00:07:05.365 --> 00:07:08.671 Right, I'm compelled to talk about current market movements, and I must say that 128 00:07:08.671 --> 00:07:10.671 since we started this podcast, 129 00:07:10.671 --> 00:07:14.276 market movements may have changed because Trump has said something or someone else 130 00:07:14.276 --> 00:07:16.276 has said something. 131 00:07:16.276 --> 00:07:18.600 But have you changed your asset allocation given the recent turmoil? 132 00:07:18.640 --> 00:07:20.802 Well, I was... 133 00:07:21.242 --> 00:07:27.805 reasonably heavy in equities towards the end of the first quarter, but I did take 134 00:07:27.805 --> 00:07:27.885 it down, 135 00:07:27.885 --> 00:07:30.666 fortunately, ahead of the tariffs. 136 00:07:31.286 --> 00:07:33.887 As you say, the situation is incredibly fluid. 137 00:07:33.987 --> 00:07:36.008 It's bouncing around all over the place. 138 00:07:36.729 --> 00:07:42.891 And at the moment, I was sitting where I would consider neutral equities, 139 00:07:42.951 --> 00:07:47.873 neutral risk assets, but more offshore than onshore, obviously. 140 00:07:48.433 --> 00:07:51.175 I'm going to keep the on show I mean, the offshore, 141 00:07:51.635 --> 00:07:55.817 as long as I can in terms of the mandate and the regulations, 142 00:07:56.357 --> 00:08:00.959 I don't see any reason for the RAND to be strong in this environment. 143 00:08:01.499 --> 00:08:05.601 And I think the environment is going to remain very difficult and very choppy. 144 00:08:06.581 --> 00:08:08.782 And countries are going to have to pick. 145 00:08:09.182 --> 00:08:10.223 Are you with the U.S. 146 00:08:10.383 --> 00:08:11.823 or are you not with the U.S.? 147 00:08:12.083 --> 00:08:18.426 And I think in terms of geographical asset allocation, the countries and the 148 00:08:18.426 --> 00:08:20.426 companies that... 149 00:08:20.426 --> 00:08:22.426 Pick the U.S. 150 00:08:22.426 --> 00:08:24.426 We'll do better simply because the U.S. 151 00:08:24.426 --> 00:08:25.767 is the biggest buyer, and that is a market you're going to need to sell it to. 152 00:08:26.147 --> 00:08:28.609 Obviously, such times present opportunities. 153 00:08:28.669 --> 00:08:30.110 Everyone's saying, oh, woe is me. 154 00:08:30.190 --> 00:08:30.890 Look at the market. 155 00:08:30.910 --> 00:08:32.331 It's down 7%, down 6%. 156 00:08:33.452 --> 00:08:38.896 Then it's up 8% or, in the best-ex case in the recent bounce back, up 13% in one day, 157 00:08:38.956 --> 00:08:40.677 one of the biggest moves in history. 158 00:08:41.157 --> 00:08:46.260 But in adversity comes asset allocation opportunity, Gail. 159 00:08:46.261 --> 00:08:47.061 Are you seeing that? 160 00:08:47.581 --> 00:08:48.482 Yes, a bit. 161 00:08:48.702 --> 00:08:54.026 Yes, and it's one of the strengths of the fund because the offshore is big in the 162 00:08:54.026 --> 00:08:54.226 managed 163 00:08:54.226 --> 00:08:58.109 land and you can move that around very, very quickly. 164 00:09:00.110 --> 00:09:00.810 And I do. 165 00:09:01.431 --> 00:09:06.474 So, for instance, last night when the Trump tariffs were announced, I've been 166 00:09:06.474 --> 00:09:08.474 underweight NASDAQ. 167 00:09:08.474 --> 00:09:10.474 I bought in. 168 00:09:10.474 --> 00:09:12.474 It was up seven when I bought in. 169 00:09:12.474 --> 00:09:14.474 Didn't feel too good. 170 00:09:14.474 --> 00:09:16.474 Felt a bit better when it closed up 12. 171 00:09:16.474 --> 00:09:18.474 But, you know, you have to. 172 00:09:18.474 --> 00:09:20.474 It is a very fluid situation. 173 00:09:20.474 --> 00:09:24.150 The market was oversold in due advance, but I don't think we're going from here 174 00:09:24.150 --> 00:09:26.150 back into a long-term bull market. 175 00:09:26.150 --> 00:09:28.150 I think it will be more difficult. 176 00:09:28.150 --> 00:09:32.556 If you look at the course as a whole, you have gone overweight European and UK 177 00:09:32.556 --> 00:09:34.556 equities and underweight US equities. 178 00:09:34.556 --> 00:09:35.258 So there was a balancing act going on there. 179 00:09:35.278 --> 00:09:37.560 What drove the change in geographical allocation? 180 00:09:37.780 --> 00:09:43.624 You have sort of answered that in previous answers, but just reiterate, geographical 181 00:09:43.624 --> 00:09:45.624 allocation, why? 182 00:09:45.624 --> 00:09:47.624 Oh. 183 00:09:47.624 --> 00:09:51.275 I mean, the one thing about the UK is when you go there and you speak to four people 184 00:09:51.275 --> 00:09:53.275 in the lift, 185 00:09:53.275 --> 00:09:58.168 you're semi-suicidal by the time you get out the lift because they really are 186 00:09:58.168 --> 00:10:00.168 pessimistic 187 00:10:00.168 --> 00:10:02.168 about the outlook there. 188 00:10:02.168 --> 00:10:05.794 And the outlook for growth is somewhat muted, but they do have some very good 189 00:10:05.794 --> 00:10:07.794 businesses. 190 00:10:07.794 --> 00:10:09.757 For instance, Next, the clothing company, 191 00:10:09.837 --> 00:10:16.361 which was trading at a discount to our clothing shares in South Africa at the 192 00:10:16.361 --> 00:10:18.361 time with better growth. 193 00:10:18.361 --> 00:10:21.705 They've got some banks there which trade cheaper than our banks with better growth. 194 00:10:21.925 --> 00:10:28.349 So it was completely a bottom-up decision that that market has reasonable growth. 195 00:10:29.190 --> 00:10:30.491 at an attractive price. 196 00:10:31.272 --> 00:10:37.976 And the same kind of story drove one into some of the European banks because where 197 00:10:37.976 --> 00:10:39.976 our banks who 198 00:10:39.976 --> 00:10:44.841 don't actually cover their cost of capital, such as APSA, trade on 0.9 times 199 00:10:44.841 --> 00:10:46.841 book, 200 00:10:46.841 --> 00:10:50.425 in Europe, if a company's ROE is below its cost of capital, it trades on 0.4 book. 201 00:10:51.686 --> 00:10:56.329 So our market is not as cheap as people like to think it is. 202 00:10:56.389 --> 00:11:02.550 and a lot of people People in South Africa just look at the market of what is the PE 203 00:11:02.550 --> 00:11:04.550 relative to historic PE, 204 00:11:04.550 --> 00:11:06.733 and they don't really look at it compared to the global ratings. 205 00:11:06.833 --> 00:11:10.155 So that's one of the things I found attractive in Europe. 206 00:11:10.355 --> 00:11:11.896 And then Rheinmetall, which 207 00:11:13.658 --> 00:11:17.881 I have taken a few profits on because I think it was like 120% here today. 208 00:11:18.541 --> 00:11:25.386 But we actually got into that last year, September, October, because before Trump 209 00:11:25.386 --> 00:11:27.386 went in, 210 00:11:27.386 --> 00:11:32.299 denatored Europe, it had good growth at a very reasonable PE. 211 00:11:33.199 --> 00:11:37.922 So, and particularly relative to the US because the US was getting more expensive. 212 00:11:38.583 --> 00:11:45.067 Now, the interesting thing with the US shares is that some of them, like booking 213 00:11:45.067 --> 00:11:47.067 and Netflix, you know, 214 00:11:47.067 --> 00:11:47.109 trade at cheaper multiples and clicks. 215 00:11:48.229 --> 00:11:51.071 Now, I don't think those businesses are comparable. 216 00:11:51.211 --> 00:11:54.734 So, when I get the opportunity to buy there again, I certainly will. 217 00:11:55.414 --> 00:11:57.355 Okay, final question, which sort of wraps things up. 218 00:11:57.395 --> 00:11:59.735 I hope it will anyway to our satisfaction. 219 00:12:00.795 --> 00:12:07.137 Managed strategy continues to be a differentiated offering relative to the 220 00:12:07.137 --> 00:12:09.137 peers in the sector. 221 00:12:09.137 --> 00:12:09.278 That's one of the great things about your fund. 222 00:12:09.938 --> 00:12:13.019 What do you think will be your next move in asset allocation? 223 00:12:13.059 --> 00:12:15.019 Again, you've answered it to a certain extent. 224 00:12:15.239 --> 00:12:16.640 Are you sometimes tempted, Gail, 225 00:12:17.340 --> 00:12:23.442 to get back from work and sit down and watch a bit of business television and 226 00:12:23.442 --> 00:12:25.442 say, you know what, 227 00:12:25.442 --> 00:12:27.442 I'd rather just sit on the fence? 228 00:12:27.442 --> 00:12:31.090 I want to reallocate here and there and everywhere, but it might be wrong in 48 229 00:12:31.090 --> 00:12:33.090 hours. 230 00:12:33.090 --> 00:12:35.090 Do you ever get tempted to do that? 231 00:12:35.090 --> 00:12:35.353 Or are you planning your next move? 232 00:12:38.795 --> 00:12:43.558 I'm not tempted to sit on the fence. 233 00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:47.161 I will buy South Africa when the growth rate, 234 00:12:47.341 --> 00:12:52.825 if the growth rate picks up properly and the share values are attractive at the 235 00:12:52.825 --> 00:12:52.905 time. 236 00:12:53.465 --> 00:12:54.806 And I look forward to doing it. 237 00:12:55.146 --> 00:12:55.846 that. 238 00:12:55.867 --> 00:13:01.331 I just cannot see the current political environment being conducive to that. 239 00:13:02.592 --> 00:13:07.055 And I'm not a natural fence sitter. 240 00:13:07.455 --> 00:13:13.799 And I think some of the things that go on in the industry are absolute career 241 00:13:13.799 --> 00:13:15.799 protection over 242 00:13:15.799 --> 00:13:17.799 investment returns. 243 00:13:17.799 --> 00:13:22.606 And at certain things, for instance, certain indices and the creation of them 244 00:13:22.606 --> 00:13:24.606 are just completely self-serving. 245 00:13:24.606 --> 00:13:26.368 not actually economically sound. 246 00:13:27.149 --> 00:13:32.432 So no, when I'm watching TV or the business news, 247 00:13:32.672 --> 00:13:37.676 looking through the business channels, I don't get tempted to do that. 248 00:13:38.196 --> 00:13:45.081 Okay, and for now, the week around went to all-time record lows, or very close to it, 249 00:13:45.081 --> 00:13:47.081 in the last week or so before this podcast. 250 00:13:47.081 --> 00:13:50.244 And the SA sell-off now definitely helping you, isn't it? 251 00:13:50.725 --> 00:13:51.846 Yes. 252 00:13:54.154 --> 00:13:55.975 It does help me when the rand is weaker. 253 00:13:56.095 --> 00:13:59.877 And you know what people forget is that the rand has been very weak against the 254 00:13:59.877 --> 00:14:00.158 euro. 255 00:14:00.937 --> 00:14:05.719 Because the rand is sold off against the dollar, it's sold off a lot more against 256 00:14:05.719 --> 00:14:07.719 the euro in part. 257 00:14:07.719 --> 00:14:07.800 I've been underweighted. 258 00:14:07.801 --> 00:14:09.521 I said bonds, they've done badly. 259 00:14:10.641 --> 00:14:14.323 I think we're at risk from sanctions from the US. 260 00:14:15.363 --> 00:14:21.466 We're at risk that the numbers that the Treasury have put into the budget are just 261 00:14:21.466 --> 00:14:23.466 plain wrong. 262 00:14:23.466 --> 00:14:25.592 They're looking for 1%, 1.8% growth this year. 263 00:14:25.872 --> 00:14:27.032 They're fighting about that. 264 00:14:27.052 --> 00:14:30.934 Every day they fight about that, that growth rate's going down and the hole is 265 00:14:30.934 --> 00:14:30.934 getting bigger. 266 00:14:32.135 --> 00:14:35.036 So, you know, I'm not tempted there. 267 00:14:35.376 --> 00:14:38.238 Gail, thank you very much for your great analysis, as always. 268 00:14:38.278 --> 00:14:43.140 Gail Daniel is a portfolio manager responsible for the 91 Managed Fund. 269 00:14:44.184 --> 00:14:51.130 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 270 00:14:51.130 --> 00:14:53.130 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 271 00:14:53.130 --> 00:14:54.893 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 272 00:14:55.213 --> 00:14:59.857 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 273 00:15:00.317 --> 00:15:07.283 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 274 00:15:07.283 --> 00:15:09.283 entity other than the speaker or the author. 275 00:15:09.283 --> 00:15:13.748 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 276 00:15:13.748 --> 00:15:15.748 change, revision, and revision. 277 00:15:15.748 --> 00:15:17.748 and rethinking at any time. 278 00:15:17.748 --> 00:15:18.320 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.