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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC is closed, it's still for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow, and as always on a Thursday,

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it's the Doubleheader Dream Team edition
of Viv Govender from Rands Swiss in

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Johannesburg and David Shapiro, sometimes
from Johannesburg,

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but recently in the Boston, New York area,
depending on his schedule.

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And actually, David, because we haven't
spoken to you for quite a while.

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How are you seeing things and how are
clients seeing things?

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As we speak now, we're in our third day of
decent rallies.

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What's going on?

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I think there's a lot that you can read
into the rallies.

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I wouldn't get too carried away and, you
know, running and by,

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but I think that what it does show is that
Trump is backtracking.

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You know, he's got himself into a very
difficult position.

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almost like in quicksand, and he's trying
to get himself out.

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He knows the consequences of what he's
done.

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And those were reckless policies.

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I don't think there was much thought
around them,

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and he's come under enormous criticism
from not only within his party, but

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certainly from

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Wall Streeters and investments and
companies.

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And I think the latest were the tests,
sorry, the...

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Costco's, Walmart, Home Depot, Targets,

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companies like that who went to him and
said, well, if you continue this way with

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your tariffs, especially in China,

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we will have nothing on our shelves,
meaning we can't get those goods in

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America.

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I'm putting it into my own goods.

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And Lindsay, in the same way as I walk
around the stores here and I look where

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everything is made,

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especially in the clothing industry.

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in the grocery industries and huge amounts
of goods.

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I'm talking more manufactured goods, not
necessarily foods,

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but a lot of the manufactured goods come
in from outside.

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So I think just to give Viv a chance and
other people, you know, you to respond,

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I think it's dawning on him that he's
destroying wealth,

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he's actually undermining those things
that make America great.

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that really do make America great, not in
his view, but, you know, especially the IT

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businesses.

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That was where American exceptionalism
was, and he's undermining those

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businesses.

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So I think he's beginning to backtrack.

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In fact, David, there was an interview on
CNN in the last 24 hours with a

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mega-donor,

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the chap that's the top man at Citadel.

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He gives them massive amounts of money,
not in the Trump quality amounts, but

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He said to the interviewer, he said, look,
America's not just the greatest economy in

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the world.

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It's not just the greatest democracy in
the world.

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It's not all of these things.

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America is a brand and Donald Trump with
his policies is eroding that brand.

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And he's done damage that we will have to
be have to be fixing for quite a while.

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He's still a Trump supporter and he will
still give him money.

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But he said what he's doing is very.

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Very disturbing.

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Viv, would you go along with that?

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Yeah, not just that.

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I mean, also, remember, Trump is not a
unicorn or something.

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He's like any other U.S.

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president.

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And every U.S.

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president finds around about the 100-day
mark, which we are approaching,

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that the policies that they want to do
take a backseat to the reactions to what

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actually is happening in the

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world at the moment, if you know what I
mean.

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So every president has about 100 days to
get stuff done.

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And after that 100 days, he's more going
to be dealing with reacting to

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you know crises and you know dealing with
stuff in the world as opposed to like you

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know bringing new momentum into the thing
so i think that's also

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something to be worried about to to to
understand as well he's he's not going to

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have this momentum going forward
indefinitely number

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one number two i don't know if you saw
that musk is also leaving doge in the next

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month or so yes uh and

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i think that is also like showing the
indication that some of the steam that we

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have is running out and i think the
immigration stuff to

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a certain extent is also going to be
bogged down in

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in legal wrangling for the foreseeable
future.

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He's gotten the job half done by basically
stopping people from entering.

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I think that's obviously done.

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There's no more huge people entering, but
getting the people that are in out of the

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country.

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will be difficult.

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And the tariff stuff, quite frankly, as
David mentioned, you know, the kickback

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has been quite strong.

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And the thing is, also, the tariff thing
has always been with Trump, a case where

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he's threatened a lot, but delivered very
little.

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Remember Mexico, remember Canada, you
know, even now with China,

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it's a lot of threats and very little
actual development on that front, quite

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frankly.

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And so I don't think we're going to be
seeing the same kind of momentum going,

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you know, forward.

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I mean, obviously, he's probably going to
do other stuff as well.

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but the same kind of economic momentum
going forward you know indefinitely into

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the future okay david uh i'll come back to
you because

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i know you are you're not just a person
who reads the wall street journal or the

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new york times you also you you you you

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go around annoying people you ask people
what what you

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know you go around doing field work and
the man and the woman on the street and in

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our

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pre-chat you said you'd had some very
interesting conversations Maybe you could

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share those conversations with us.

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You know, one of the big attacks is
against the

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Ivy League universities.

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Yeah.

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He's using the ploy of attacking
anti-Semitism.

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But I think that's not the main cause.

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In fact, to be honest,

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the Jewish community are quite upset about
that because he's using it as an excuse.

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He's using it against...

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the independence of those large
organizations, whether it's Harvard,

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whether it's Columbia,

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whatever it is.

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Yes, I must admit that people are not
happy with the way,

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with the protests and how those unfolded.

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But on the other hand, I think they still
value the independence.

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Now, where I'm coming from is I was up in
Boston.

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Boston is a university city.

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You know, wherever you go through there.

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And it's very closely aligned to biotech,
to the sciences.

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And the source of the information that
they get or the, you know, the labs all

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come from the universities.

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You know, the medical research comes from
Harvard, comes from, there's also research

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from MIT.

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You know, all the universities there.

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I'm not just singling out Harvard.

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But many of the professors there are PhDs,
you know, highly skilled.

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And they now, with the withdrawal of
funding,

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they're the ones that are suffering and
being laid off and are losing jobs because

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of the funding that's not available.

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So it's not against the sciences, I mean
against the arts, the liberal arts

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protesters and those divisions and that.

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It's really where it's being felt is in
the labs, you know, at those universities

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and in the higher research,

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which is very important because it's from
that.

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basic research that the Eli Lilly's get
their information or the Pfizer's or the

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Merck's and all these other pharmaceutical

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businesses.

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I'm the wrong person to talk about that,
you know, because I don't know much about

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it.

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But this is the feedback that suddenly
people are being forced to now sell their

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houses.

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And I'm not exaggerating, you know, sell
their houses, look for a smaller place and

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very,

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very concerned about where this goes.

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So I think that applies certainly to the
North East.

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of America and probably to California as
well.

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So, and this is another area that is
annoying.

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The protests here are enormous.

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You know, there's protests all the time
against Trump, you know, against what he's

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doing.

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As you said, Musk is gone.

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You know, you don't see him anymore.

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I think he's gone back to Tesla and that.

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And I think even within the Republican
Party, they've turned against him.

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So I don't think you'll be seeing him and
his kids.

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and he's kept around much in the Oval
Office anymore.

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You'd have to have a very wide-angle lens
to see him and his kids, as they think

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he's got 14 at the last count.

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But anyway, sorry, David.

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Yes, you mentioned about this as well.

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Okay, this is something that you must
understand.

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Like what David has said is correct in a
certain way, but also the letter was a

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mistake.

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They say the letter they sent to Harvard
was sent by mistake.

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Okay?

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So this wasn't a real letter.

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So the Harvard's response was to a letter
that the administration sent to them that

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was not actually vetted,

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quite frankly.

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And that is why the response was so
strong, because, I mean, they had been

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pushing people like Columbia and so on a
little bit, a little bit.

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But this was like an outrageous kind of
set of demands that they put forward.

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And the reason that Harvard had to react
like this was because the demands were so

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crazy that they couldn't have said yes to
them.

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OK, and that is why they had that
response.

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But the reason that that demands a
shortage...

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insane was because they did not mean to
send the letter.

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That's them.

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You know, this is the administration.

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They bumble.

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You've seen the thing with Peter Heskett,
the defense secretary.

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I mean, it's insane.

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Anyway, keep going.

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Sorry.

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But here's the thing.

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This is not the first time.

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Do you know what happened at the FBI?

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Okay, this is hilarious.

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The FBI, they wanted to kick the old FBI
guy in, right?

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Of course, they got the new guy, Cash
Battalion.

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But the interim guy that they put in was
done by accident.

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They put the wrong name in.

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And then they didn't want to remove that
name and admit they made a mistake.

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But it turned out they put this guy in
place who was quite anti-Trump.

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And therefore, in the run up to the whole
replacement with Kash Patel,

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they had this really anti-Trump guy in
charge of the FBI for like a while, but

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they didn't want you to be in charge.

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So the thing is that, what I'm saying is
that, you know,

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the thing with Trump is that the chaos is
so great that you're never going to

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understand what the actual

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underlying ideas are.

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The funniest thing is that you know the
guy that does the tariffs?

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What do you mean?

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positive There's a guy called Peter
Navarro.

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You know this story.

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Peter Navarro wrote a book.

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In this book, he's this out there
economist.

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He claimed that there was an economist
that basically supported him called

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Ron Varo.

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But Ron Varo turns out not to be a real
person.

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It's basically his last name spelled
differently navarre it's an anagram of his

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last name so the guy that

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trump has as a as the guy that's advising
him on tariffs

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literally wrote a book where one of his
sources was made up oh dear so he's having

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he i mean you think after four years after
the first term he would have learned a few

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things but in fact he hasn't learned very
much he

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surrounds himself with chaos and yes men
and the yes men and women unfortunately

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don't seem to have

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anything better to do than to be
sycophants, bootlickers.

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And they don't really focus on the German
meat.

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Pete Hexeth, I find him a very, he's
almost musk-like in his childish behavior.

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Some of his speeches that he gives, he's
very, very strange.

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Why is the market up today, David?

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Well,

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I think it's just a reaction to the
withdrawal of tariffs against China.

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You know, I think it's just a continuation
of this, the realization, number one,

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also,

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that he's withdrawn his criticism against
Powell.

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I actually listened to that full
interview, which was in Chicago.

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You remember the chap from India who was
the, at one stage, I think,

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Bank of, not Bank of, was he Bank of
England or was he the Chancellor?

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Rag, I can't remember his full name.

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But he was the interviewer.

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And I listened to the interview.

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And Powell was very balanced.

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He was very measured.

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00:12:41.704 --> 00:12:46.066
And he said, look, we haven't seen these
kind of tariffs since the

238
00:12:46.887 --> 00:12:52.770
1930s, that act that was implemented in
the 30s in order to buy and save the

239
00:12:52.770 --> 00:12:54.770
American economy.

240
00:12:54.770 --> 00:12:57.032
So he says we've got and I'm putting these
into my own words we've got no playbook.

241
00:12:57.412 --> 00:12:58.112
We don't know.

242
00:12:58.133 --> 00:12:59.253
We've got no experience.

243
00:12:59.254 --> 00:13:00.574
And so therefore, we can't...

244
00:13:00.654 --> 00:13:04.095
do anything until we see the outcome of
what this all is.

245
00:13:04.655 --> 00:13:09.076
And what he did say in gaining questions,
you know, yes, that if there's

246
00:13:09.076 --> 00:13:11.076
uncertainty,

247
00:13:11.076 --> 00:13:16.318
what happens during periods of uncertainty
is businesses and consumers do not spend,

248
00:13:16.318 --> 00:13:18.318
which makes America, and I'm quoting,

249
00:13:18.318 --> 00:13:18.739
you know, a less attractive place to be.

250
00:13:19.359 --> 00:13:21.900
You know, so yes, this is all very
negative.

251
00:13:22.320 --> 00:13:25.101
And that's why he adopted the stand that
he did.

252
00:13:25.161 --> 00:13:26.141
You know, we're going to wait.

253
00:13:26.361 --> 00:13:28.262
We can't do anything because of this.

254
00:13:29.182 --> 00:13:35.965
If you picked up the tone he was very
critical you know in a in a passive type

255
00:13:35.965 --> 00:13:37.965
of way of what was

256
00:13:37.965 --> 00:13:41.068
happening of course that angered trump
because why you know trump calls him too

257
00:13:41.068 --> 00:13:43.068
late that's his

258
00:13:43.068 --> 00:13:43.629
new nickname for uh pal too late

259
00:13:44.030 --> 00:13:50.433
you know and major loser is another one
that he favors the major yeah so um what

260
00:13:50.493 --> 00:13:54.975
happens is that all he's doing is he's
highlighting listen trump you don't know

261
00:13:54.975 --> 00:13:55.016
what to him.

262
00:13:55.596 --> 00:13:59.358
And Trump knows it as well, and that's why
he lashes out.

263
00:13:59.738 --> 00:14:05.820
Whenever he's put in a corner, what he
does, like a bully or like a cornered

264
00:14:05.820 --> 00:14:07.820
lion, you know, he lashes out.

265
00:14:07.820 --> 00:14:09.001
So I think this is what people are picking
up.

266
00:14:09.002 --> 00:14:10.321
And then he retracts.

267
00:14:10.742 --> 00:14:11.782
I'm not going to fire Trump.

268
00:14:12.082 --> 00:14:12.922
I mean Powell.

269
00:14:13.863 --> 00:14:17.544
So I think this is why the market's
beginning to discount that.

270
00:14:18.604 --> 00:14:25.208
We're at, you know, things are going to
get better or improve or more sensible

271
00:14:25.208 --> 00:14:27.208
from where we are at this stage.

272
00:14:27.208 --> 00:14:32.652
I think that the man and the woman in the
street who voted for Trump for various

273
00:14:32.652 --> 00:14:34.652
reasons and a good percentage of them
voted because of the cost of living.

274
00:14:34.652 --> 00:14:35.113
And they felt that Trump is their knight
in shining armor.

275
00:14:35.114 --> 00:14:40.496
He's going to he's going to be the king of
the groceries and bring prices down.

276
00:14:40.977 --> 00:14:46.440
Again, that during that same interview
that was a piece that was published with

277
00:14:46.440 --> 00:14:48.440
the Citadel fellow.

278
00:14:48.440 --> 00:14:50.962
They came up with three basic lies that
Trump had made in the last 24 hours.

279
00:14:50.982 --> 00:14:55.924
The first lie was gasoline prices, petrol
prices at the pump in America.

280
00:14:55.964 --> 00:14:58.665
He said the prices have tumbled, says
Trump.

281
00:14:58.925 --> 00:15:05.748
You're paying $1.29 for a gallon and never
been

282
00:15:05.788 --> 00:15:06.608
this low, he says.

283
00:15:06.609 --> 00:15:08.749
You know, he says, we've never been seen
before.

284
00:15:08.769 --> 00:15:10.289
It's another one of his great phrases.

285
00:15:10.630 --> 00:15:11.930
They went around every state.

286
00:15:11.970 --> 00:15:16.332
The lowest they could find was at a petrol
station in a little town in Texas.

287
00:15:16.652 --> 00:15:18.113
going for $2.19.

288
00:15:18.114 --> 00:15:19.694
That was the lowest they could find.

289
00:15:19.695 --> 00:15:22.336
The average was around $2.50, line number
one.

290
00:15:22.376 --> 00:15:25.338
Line number two was, what was it, eggs.

291
00:15:25.838 --> 00:15:30.242
He said, egg prices have fallen 94% since
I came into power.

292
00:15:30.262 --> 00:15:32.983
They've fallen, but by 50% to 55%.

293
00:15:33.304 --> 00:15:35.085
That's a big, big difference.

294
00:15:35.365 --> 00:15:36.366
That's line number two.

295
00:15:36.446 --> 00:15:37.847
Line number three, what was it?

296
00:15:38.247 --> 00:15:40.769
I can't remember what line number three
was.

297
00:15:40.789 --> 00:15:42.110
Oh, yes, groceries in general.

298
00:15:42.130 --> 00:15:43.651
He said, they're coming down your basket.

299
00:15:43.652 --> 00:15:45.212
It's coming down, there's no inflation.

300
00:15:45.592 --> 00:15:51.475
Last month, the grocery basket within the
CPI was up 2.4% on the month.

301
00:15:51.975 --> 00:15:54.976
So, I don't know, how could you lie to
people?

302
00:15:55.036 --> 00:15:56.177
Why do you lie to people?

303
00:15:56.537 --> 00:15:57.237
What's the point?

304
00:15:59.538 --> 00:16:00.298
You know, that's him.

305
00:16:01.639 --> 00:16:07.782
He's whatever you want to call him, a
sociopath, a psychopath, whatever it is.

306
00:16:08.702 --> 00:16:09.442
He just talks.

307
00:16:09.842 --> 00:16:10.843
You know, there's no sense.

308
00:16:11.283 --> 00:16:13.264
He just carries on and he gets away with
it.

309
00:16:13.660 --> 00:16:18.802
And that's why when you read any headlines
about meetings that he's having, you saw

310
00:16:18.802 --> 00:16:20.802
the latest with the Chinese.

311
00:16:20.802 --> 00:16:22.802
Chinese know nothing about this.

312
00:16:22.802 --> 00:16:24.802
And he talks.

313
00:16:24.802 --> 00:16:26.802
He says we're talking to them every day.

314
00:16:26.802 --> 00:16:28.802
The Chinese are saying hello.

315
00:16:28.802 --> 00:16:30.802
What are you talking about?

316
00:16:30.802 --> 00:16:32.802
I don't know who he's talking to.

317
00:16:32.802 --> 00:16:34.802
So, I mean, that's who he is.

318
00:16:34.802 --> 00:16:35.767
And therefore, you've got to be very
careful about, you know, what he says,

319
00:16:35.967 --> 00:16:39.008
because there's not much truth around it.

320
00:16:39.048 --> 00:16:40.288
And I think people are seeing.

321
00:16:40.724 --> 00:16:47.410
you know seeing him out and and beginning
to understand that uh what he is and i

322
00:16:47.410 --> 00:16:49.410
think uh the

323
00:16:49.410 --> 00:16:54.416
pressure will continue to build what what
from citadel's ken griffin i think that's

324
00:16:54.416 --> 00:16:56.416
that's right but i think he's not

325
00:16:56.416 --> 00:17:01.342
he's just one of many that are starting
with you know to withdraw or to to openly

326
00:17:01.342 --> 00:17:03.342
criticize it you know i mean to

327
00:17:03.342 --> 00:17:07.908
openly attack him and in uh jamie diamond
uh you know you name every every banker

328
00:17:08.416 --> 00:17:15.262
um some of them are a little nervous
because of their uh associations and you

329
00:17:15.262 --> 00:17:17.262
know where they where they based but i
think

330
00:17:17.262 --> 00:17:22.248
now again you know it's it's protection i
mean it's self-defense you're just trying

331
00:17:22.248 --> 00:17:24.248
to protect your business okay

332
00:17:24.248 --> 00:17:28.994
we've done we've done a lot of trump i
need to have a look at the local market

333
00:17:28.994 --> 00:17:30.994
and we're going to start with you because
this company hails from your part of the

334
00:17:30.994 --> 00:17:32.994
world

335
00:17:32.994 --> 00:17:36.019
uh kawazulu natal i looked at my screen
yesterday i wasn't really paying much

336
00:17:36.019 --> 00:17:38.019
attention sometimes you've got to switch
off for a bit so i switched off But then I

337
00:17:38.019 --> 00:17:40.019
switched on.

338
00:17:40.019 --> 00:17:42.139
And I saw at the top of the losers board
on my JSC screen,

339
00:17:42.539 --> 00:17:44.060
Aspen down 31%.

340
00:17:44.061 --> 00:17:46.782
I thought, oh, hello, it was some kind of
shared deal,

341
00:17:46.882 --> 00:17:52.265
some financial engineering with the
holdings or whatever it was.

342
00:17:52.285 --> 00:17:56.627
I didn't know what it was, but I knew it
couldn't possibly be anything operational.

343
00:17:56.887 --> 00:17:58.928
But lo and behold, Viv, it was.

344
00:17:59.529 --> 00:18:03.511
It was a 2.77 billion mistake or something
that they'd made.

345
00:18:03.851 --> 00:18:04.832
and I found that for...

346
00:18:05.292 --> 00:18:10.396
a medium to large-sized company on the
JSC, that's a massive, massive move.

347
00:18:11.897 --> 00:18:12.597
Yes, it is.

348
00:18:12.597 --> 00:18:16.441
And look, I mean, the thing is, it broke
on Tuesday just after the market closed.

349
00:18:16.442 --> 00:18:22.666
I remember talking to some people about it
here, and they were saying this is going

350
00:18:22.666 --> 00:18:24.666
to be a bloodbath tomorrow morning as this
thing came about here.

351
00:18:24.666 --> 00:18:29.071
So this dispute is apparently with regards
to manufacturing and technology around

352
00:18:29.071 --> 00:18:31.071
mRNA.

353
00:18:31.333 --> 00:18:38.199
The mRNA stuff, obviously, we know about
what's happened with the vaccine, but This

354
00:18:38.199 --> 00:18:40.199
particular technology has implications to
a number of different

355
00:18:40.199 --> 00:18:40.540
things, like cancer research, etc., etc.

356
00:18:41.441 --> 00:18:47.445
It's a new way of getting drugs into the
system, basically, or medication into the

357
00:18:47.445 --> 00:18:47.786
body.

358
00:18:48.566 --> 00:18:50.367
And the effect of MATI is here.

359
00:18:50.407 --> 00:18:54.951
I mean, obviously, it's beyond my pay
grade to understand who's going to do the

360
00:18:54.951 --> 00:18:56.951
right and who's in the wrong.

361
00:18:56.951 --> 00:19:01.896
But when you have such a massive move like
this here, backed on something that you

362
00:19:01.896 --> 00:19:03.896
don't really understand.

363
00:19:03.896 --> 00:19:05.663
Quite frankly, even though the share price
is up today, I'd be very nervous about

364
00:19:05.663 --> 00:19:05.763
that stock.

365
00:19:06.444 --> 00:19:08.326
Is this a claim against them?

366
00:19:09.107 --> 00:19:09.988
We're in a dispute.

367
00:19:12.010 --> 00:19:14.472
How do you justify this in the accounts?

368
00:19:14.492 --> 00:19:17.055
I mean, did they wrongly account for it?

369
00:19:17.656 --> 00:19:21.500
Or is this a claim against them for breach
of some…

370
00:19:24.131 --> 00:19:31.074
you know some contract i i also couldn't
quite understand what it was in other

371
00:19:31.074 --> 00:19:33.074
words have they been wrongly accounting
for

372
00:19:33.074 --> 00:19:38.077
something or alter in in other words have
their figures been wrong or is this a

373
00:19:38.077 --> 00:19:40.077
claim against them i don't i

374
00:19:40.077 --> 00:19:44.079
i couldn't quite understand that yeah this
is subject to contractual confidentiality

375
00:19:44.079 --> 00:19:46.079
confidentiality the oldest

376
00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:48.801
cities relates to you know towards an
agreement around manufacturing of M&RE

377
00:19:48.801 --> 00:19:50.801
products.

378
00:19:50.801 --> 00:19:52.801
Okay.

379
00:19:52.801 --> 00:19:54.801
This is...

380
00:19:54.801 --> 00:19:56.044
Look, I mean, understand when it comes to
this bias stuff, often you find, you know,

381
00:19:56.044 --> 00:19:58.044
there are things that I mean, like CRISPR,

382
00:19:58.044 --> 00:19:58.125
the technology in which a lot of the stuff
is based.

383
00:19:58.425 --> 00:20:02.227
There's like two people who claim that or
two groups of people that claim that

384
00:20:02.227 --> 00:20:04.227
they're the ones that developed it.

385
00:20:04.227 --> 00:20:04.848
And, you know, there's obviously disputes
around that.

386
00:20:04.928 --> 00:20:08.870
And, you know, they don't even detail
exactly what the thing is.

387
00:20:09.190 --> 00:20:10.191
They say confidentiality.

388
00:20:10.711 --> 00:20:17.334
But like I said, even if I knew what it
was, I wouldn't be able to understand the

389
00:20:17.334 --> 00:20:19.334
technical aspects behind it,

390
00:20:19.334 --> 00:20:21.334
quite frankly.

391
00:20:21.334 --> 00:20:25.022
and so as a as a dummy i would say okay i
don't understand it's down probably not

392
00:20:25.022 --> 00:20:27.022
smart to touch it yeah i

393
00:20:27.022 --> 00:20:31.966
think that so this is where you follow the
philosophy of someone like warren buffett

394
00:20:31.966 --> 00:20:33.966
when there was a whiff of scandal around
tesco's the

395
00:20:33.966 --> 00:20:38.930
giant uk supermarket chain of course he
just said okay we hold it let's get out i

396
00:20:38.930 --> 00:20:40.930
don't really care i just want out of this
and if he'd

397
00:20:40.930 --> 00:20:45.654
have seen that and a 30 fall in the stock
he'd had he'd have a look maybe phone up

398
00:20:45.654 --> 00:20:47.654
steven sard and then just just

399
00:20:47.654 --> 00:20:47.955
clear out and and stick to the good ones.

400
00:20:48.515 --> 00:20:50.136
But yes, one to watch there.

401
00:20:50.137 --> 00:20:51.477
Let's have a look at some markets here.

402
00:20:52.157 --> 00:20:54.558
Oh, sorry, one more thing on South Africa.

403
00:20:55.539 --> 00:20:59.561
I think someone's had a look at Trump and
says, well, if he can do a U-turn, I'll do

404
00:20:59.561 --> 00:21:01.561
a U-turn as well.

405
00:21:01.561 --> 00:21:02.102
VAT, up, down, down.

406
00:21:02.923 --> 00:21:04.964
It's just unbelievable what's going on.

407
00:21:05.144 --> 00:21:07.165
You look at it from afar at the moment,
David.

408
00:21:07.365 --> 00:21:08.766
You must shake your head a little bit.

409
00:21:10.067 --> 00:21:11.628
Well, I don't know where it's going.

410
00:21:12.368 --> 00:21:15.210
You know, it's, well, what are they going
to do now?

411
00:21:15.490 --> 00:21:16.190
I know that.

412
00:21:16.190 --> 00:21:23.115
there's plenty of capacity within
government to save costs you know or to

413
00:21:23.115 --> 00:21:25.115
reduce spending or reckless spending bad

414
00:21:25.115 --> 00:21:30.160
spending but i'm not sure where this
leaves the anc you know and and where it

415
00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:32.160
leaves politics because it just seems

416
00:21:32.160 --> 00:21:37.165
to be an incredible mess uh i i love the
way the market just says okay you know

417
00:21:37.165 --> 00:21:39.165
business is usually in south

418
00:21:39.165 --> 00:21:43.389
africa this is what happens but um i i'm
I'm just worried about who, you know,

419
00:21:43.549 --> 00:21:44.910
where does this go to from here?

420
00:21:47.271 --> 00:21:53.233
I'm just flummoxed by, I know our market
is mainly offshore because of the large

421
00:21:53.233 --> 00:21:55.233
businesses,

422
00:21:55.233 --> 00:21:57.255
but looking at the future of South Africa,

423
00:21:57.915 --> 00:22:00.316
who's running the place and how they're
going to run it?

424
00:22:01.136 --> 00:22:01.836
I don't know.

425
00:22:01.836 --> 00:22:03.677
It just seems to me a total mess.

426
00:22:04.198 --> 00:22:06.639
Viv, you're the man on the ground for us.

427
00:22:07.239 --> 00:22:07.959
What's your impression?

428
00:22:08.159 --> 00:22:14.102
Honestly, I don't believe there's 75
billion runs.

429
00:22:14.562 --> 00:22:21.504
i don't believe there's 75 billion rounds
probably 75 billion dollars of wasted

430
00:22:21.504 --> 00:22:23.504
spending and stuff in the government i
don't believe it's 75 billion dollars that

431
00:22:23.504 --> 00:22:28.266
can actively be removed if you know what i
mean because even though they exist i

432
00:22:28.266 --> 00:22:30.266
don't think the government has the
capacity or the ability i mean

433
00:22:30.266 --> 00:22:35.469
in some cases the willingness to remove
that kind of extra spending so they're

434
00:22:35.469 --> 00:22:37.469
gonna have to find this fuller's hole from
somewhere else and i was just thinking

435
00:22:37.469 --> 00:22:39.469
about it

436
00:22:39.469 --> 00:22:39.630
today in the office i mean it can't really
be corporate because those guys are too

437
00:22:39.630 --> 00:22:41.630
variable in terms of income

438
00:22:41.630 --> 00:22:47.336
what are they going to do are they going
to go after you know things like capital

439
00:22:47.336 --> 00:22:49.336
gains are they going to go off to income
they're really basically did the sneak

440
00:22:49.336 --> 00:22:51.336
income increase uh income

441
00:22:51.336 --> 00:22:54.298
tax increase but not adjusting the uh the
brackets you know uh and so 75 billion

442
00:22:54.298 --> 00:22:56.298
even with that

443
00:22:56.298 --> 00:23:01.280
sticky increase so are they going to go to
the uh you know the uh income earners i

444
00:23:01.280 --> 00:23:03.280
don't exactly see where they're going to
do it the idea of

445
00:23:03.280 --> 00:23:07.782
of reducing spending uh i i don't think
that they have the capacity to do that

446
00:23:07.782 --> 00:23:09.782
even though like we both agree

447
00:23:09.782 --> 00:23:11.576
there is probably multiples that of
wasteful spending in the government.

448
00:23:12.540 --> 00:23:14.322
Okay, gentlemen, so we've got some prices
now.

449
00:23:14.462 --> 00:23:20.527
Dollar Rand is 18.79, which is a 0.6% gain
for the US dollar against the South

450
00:23:20.527 --> 00:23:22.527
African currency.

451
00:23:22.527 --> 00:23:23.569
British pound against the Rand is 25 on
the nail.

452
00:23:24.210 --> 00:23:30.135
Euro Rand is 21.35, and that's a 0.85%
gain for the euro.

453
00:23:30.175 --> 00:23:34.459
The pound, incidentally, has gained by
0.9% against the Rand.

454
00:23:35.099 --> 00:23:40.664
Euro dollar, 1.1360, euro up a quarter of
a percent, British pound against the US

455
00:23:40.664 --> 00:23:40.883
dollar.

456
00:23:41.024 --> 00:23:44.405
up a quarter to $133.05.

457
00:23:44.425 --> 00:23:48.827
Commodities, well, since we last spoke,
the gold price has been to $3,500.

458
00:23:48.828 --> 00:23:51.208
Didn't like it up there, so it came back
down.

459
00:23:51.588 --> 00:23:58.051
It's currently trading at $33,000, sorry,
$33.24 per ounce, which is down another

460
00:23:58.551 --> 00:24:00.392
3.2% after a bad day yesterday.

461
00:24:00.472 --> 00:24:03.713
Platinum up 15 to $9.78.

462
00:24:03.714 --> 00:24:07.335
I noticed the PGM production update from
Anglo-American came out today.

463
00:24:07.815 --> 00:24:09.816
Not much going on there share-wise.

464
00:24:10.236 --> 00:24:15.661
And Palladium, up a percent or nearly $10
to $9.53.

465
00:24:15.662 --> 00:24:17.122
Oil price has been quite interesting.

466
00:24:17.522 --> 00:24:20.384
I've got an oil price interview next week,
which is a rarity.

467
00:24:20.524 --> 00:24:22.266
Most people don't want to talk about it
too much.

468
00:24:22.926 --> 00:24:28.051
But one of the questions I'll bring up is,
where's your drill, drill, drill baby now,

469
00:24:28.051 --> 00:24:28.150
Mr.

470
00:24:28.150 --> 00:24:28.791
Trump?

471
00:24:28.791 --> 00:24:35.036
Because you can't afford to, because they
can't make money at West Texas screwed at

472
00:24:35.036 --> 00:24:37.036
$62.29,

473
00:24:37.036 --> 00:24:39.036
unfortunately.

474
00:24:39.036 --> 00:24:39.420
But anyway, it was a nice idea, as some of
yours are.

475
00:24:39.780 --> 00:24:42.281
Brent crude oil has barely changed, by the
way, in West Texas.

476
00:24:42.681 --> 00:24:47.562
Brent crude oil is barely changed as well
at $66.08 per barrel.

477
00:24:47.622 --> 00:24:52.003
Natural gas prices tumbling nearly 5% down
today.

478
00:24:52.283 --> 00:24:57.185
S&P 500 futures were sort of flat to
slightly down close to the opening.

479
00:24:57.186 --> 00:24:58.465
And then the bulls came in.

480
00:24:58.865 --> 00:25:00.966
$54.77 for the futures.

481
00:25:01.446 --> 00:25:03.266
And that's up 1.4%.

482
00:25:03.506 --> 00:25:07.207
That's a big three-day rally if it holds
here, which is good, of course.

483
00:25:07.708 --> 00:25:08.808
and the US tenure.

484
00:25:09.108 --> 00:25:12.430
4.33%, six basis points lower.

485
00:25:12.570 --> 00:25:14.331
The South African 10-year, also lower.

486
00:25:14.731 --> 00:25:21.215
PPI came out today, producer price index
down to 0.5%. Hopefully,

487
00:25:21.575 --> 00:25:24.837
that filters through to the retail level,
but you never know.

488
00:25:25.357 --> 00:25:26.438
And what else have we got?

489
00:25:26.498 --> 00:25:31.981
Bitcoin, 93,150 now, which is almost
exactly unchanged.

490
00:25:31.982 --> 00:25:34.462
So stuff going on there.

491
00:25:34.662 --> 00:25:37.283
Any stocks that have caught either of your
eyes on the JSC?

492
00:25:37.323 --> 00:25:38.304
I'll give my up.

493
00:25:38.364 --> 00:25:39.464
Ups and downs in a moment.

494
00:25:39.845 --> 00:25:43.906
Viv, anything on the local market that you
look at or you hold or you want to hold?

495
00:25:44.687 --> 00:25:48.608
Yeah, no, look, I mean, you did mention
the fact that we see the platinum guys

496
00:25:48.608 --> 00:25:50.608
under a bit of pressure today.

497
00:25:50.608 --> 00:25:51.690
Northern, you know, it's Implat, Sabanio,
all under pressure.

498
00:25:52.030 --> 00:25:54.691
The one thing that does interest me,
however, is what's happening with gold.

499
00:25:55.431 --> 00:25:59.633
I don't know if you saw when we had the
craziest stuff happen with Trump.

500
00:26:00.173 --> 00:26:02.634
Gold price went above $3,500 an ounce.

501
00:26:02.774 --> 00:26:03.474
Yes.

502
00:26:03.474 --> 00:26:04.255
It's come down since then.

503
00:26:04.935 --> 00:26:06.376
You know, it's about $3,300.

504
00:26:06.436 --> 00:26:12.679
But I think if you look at what's happened
to Bitcoin and what's happened to gold, I

505
00:26:12.679 --> 00:26:14.679
think gold has kind of regained its safe
haven status,

506
00:26:14.679 --> 00:26:14.700
especially with the dollar being under
pressure like it is.

507
00:26:15.220 --> 00:26:18.682
Bitcoin really isn't, you know, the safe
haven that everybody wants it to be.

508
00:26:18.683 --> 00:26:24.964
You know, and if you think of or look at
what people like Michael Saylor and so on

509
00:26:24.964 --> 00:26:26.964
are doing in

510
00:26:26.964 --> 00:26:28.546
terms of buying Bitcoin, I think some of
that demand may be, you know, limited.

511
00:26:28.966 --> 00:26:31.347
But gold does seem to be returning as the
safe haven.

512
00:26:31.367 --> 00:26:32.388
So things get a little crazy.

513
00:26:33.168 --> 00:26:36.510
I can expect to buy gold because that
seems to be the place that everybody's

514
00:26:36.510 --> 00:26:38.510
going to at the moment.

515
00:26:38.510 --> 00:26:39.451
Yes, and have been doing it for a long
time, even before Trump.

516
00:26:39.452 --> 00:26:42.452
I mean, this thing has been a juggernaut
on the upside.

517
00:26:42.972 --> 00:26:47.134
Talking about the upside, on the JSC
Aspen, it's bounced back a bit.

518
00:26:47.194 --> 00:26:50.135
It's got back, what, about seven-fourths
of 28?

519
00:26:50.195 --> 00:26:53.437
Yeah, about a third of what it lost
yesterday.

520
00:26:53.438 --> 00:26:55.697
It's up seven and a third percent.

521
00:26:55.817 --> 00:26:56.958
No, that's wrong mathematics.

522
00:26:56.959 --> 00:26:57.698
You can work it out.

523
00:26:59.239 --> 00:27:01.720
Down 31 yesterday, up 7% today.

524
00:27:02.020 --> 00:27:03.141
So a quarter, sorry.

525
00:27:03.822 --> 00:27:04.983
Motus up 6.5%.

526
00:27:04.984 --> 00:27:07.765
It needs to recover 100%.

527
00:27:07.766 --> 00:27:08.726
Yeah, that's not going to happen.

528
00:27:08.746 --> 00:27:10.347
Not after what you two have said about it.

529
00:27:11.348 --> 00:27:12.949
Motus 6.5% up.

530
00:27:13.029 --> 00:27:15.651
TFG up 6.3%.

531
00:27:15.671 --> 00:27:17.893
We Buy Cars up 4.8%.

532
00:27:17.894 --> 00:27:19.895
And TrueWurst, the retailer's doing well
today.

533
00:27:19.896 --> 00:27:21.576
I wonder if it's that PPI data.

534
00:27:21.636 --> 00:27:22.336
I hope so.

535
00:27:22.657 --> 00:27:25.600
3.5% and also the VAT story, of course.

536
00:27:25.840 --> 00:27:27.281
3.5% to the good Ford.

537
00:27:27.361 --> 00:27:28.382
TrueWurst downside.

538
00:27:28.883 --> 00:27:30.604
Yeah, a couple of diggers at the top.

539
00:27:30.944 --> 00:27:37.710
Northam's as they mentioned five and a
half percent down in place three percent

540
00:27:37.710 --> 00:27:39.710
down to gala down three percent said

541
00:27:39.710 --> 00:27:44.676
bani 2.4 percent and curry is 1.9 percent
loser David indices closing please

542
00:27:44.776 --> 00:27:46.558
and value traded if you can

543
00:27:47.379 --> 00:27:52.743
I can see the all share index I think this
is a new high At 90553.

544
00:27:52.744 --> 00:27:55.746
I haven't seen it breach the 500 level.

545
00:27:56.787 --> 00:27:58.048
Sorry, 90,000 level.

546
00:27:58.554 --> 00:28:01.136
So I think we're at a new high, up 0.8%.

547
00:28:01.137 --> 00:28:07.662
I see the gains right across the market
with most of the big gains in the consumer

548
00:28:07.702 --> 00:28:10.444
discretionary side of it, well, in the
industrial side.

549
00:28:10.445 --> 00:28:15.188
That's mainly on the side that you
mentioned, those companies that you

550
00:28:15.188 --> 00:28:17.188
mentioned in your highlights of that.

551
00:28:17.188 --> 00:28:19.132
But a very good day, you know, a very good
day right across the board.

552
00:28:19.212 --> 00:28:22.915
Yeah, all share 90,553.

553
00:28:22.916 --> 00:28:26.398
Top 40, that's a 0.8% gain, also at 0.8%
nearly.

554
00:28:26.718 --> 00:28:29.059
is the top 40 to 83.257.

555
00:28:29.099 --> 00:28:31.100
Resources up half a percent.

556
00:28:31.140 --> 00:28:32.801
Horrible day yesterday, though.

557
00:28:32.981 --> 00:28:35.202
71,000 and change.

558
00:28:35.862 --> 00:28:37.663
Industrials up 0.9%.

559
00:28:37.843 --> 00:28:39.304
Financials up just over 1%.

560
00:28:39.324 --> 00:28:40.644
Yeah, so...

561
00:28:41.224 --> 00:28:43.305
I'm looking at the value, yeah.

562
00:28:43.325 --> 00:28:45.686
There is 22 billion, which is not bad.

563
00:28:46.146 --> 00:28:51.289
The one, the stock that's, I think, I
don't know if you spoke about it

564
00:28:51.289 --> 00:28:53.289
yesterday, was Capitec.

565
00:28:53.289 --> 00:28:53.410
Oh, yeah, very much so.

566
00:28:54.310 --> 00:28:55.191
Yeah, wasn't it good?

567
00:28:55.192 --> 00:29:00.155
Today, just making when I say making
fools, you know, out of all the other

568
00:29:00.155 --> 00:29:00.314
banks,

569
00:29:00.314 --> 00:29:06.880
they just captured where the market is and
just continue to be supported by the

570
00:29:06.940 --> 00:29:07.640
population.

571
00:29:08.181 --> 00:29:09.442
It's an incredible company.

572
00:29:09.542 --> 00:29:14.487
I know it's expensive, but I think it's
just left all the other banks floundering.

573
00:29:15.067 --> 00:29:19.130
As I said to the commentator yesterday,
it's been expensive since 800 rand a

574
00:29:19.130 --> 00:29:19.451
share.

575
00:29:19.451 --> 00:29:19.831
Yes.

576
00:29:19.911 --> 00:29:21.212
And people don't care.

577
00:29:21.532 --> 00:29:23.514
It's a brilliant South African success
story.

578
00:29:24.566 --> 00:29:28.188
Okay, just final word is on the
Magnificent Seven.

579
00:29:28.248 --> 00:29:32.511
I noticed there was an announcement from
the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.

580
00:29:32.551 --> 00:29:35.032
It's had its worst six months in its
history,

581
00:29:35.292 --> 00:29:39.955
and it was all to do with high-flying
until recently tech stocks.

582
00:29:41.015 --> 00:29:45.478
And Viv, as the tech man, they will, of
course, recover, but they've taken a

583
00:29:45.478 --> 00:29:45.819
knock.

584
00:29:46.158 --> 00:29:46.919
Oh, yes, most certainly.

585
00:29:47.419 --> 00:29:54.362
Look, I mean, they had gone on such a huge
run that by the start of this year, I

586
00:29:54.362 --> 00:29:56.362
mean, we had looked at over a third of the

587
00:29:56.362 --> 00:29:56.443
S&P 500 was these seven companies.

588
00:29:57.883 --> 00:30:02.345
And that was an unusually high level of
concentration, especially when you

589
00:30:02.345 --> 00:30:04.345
consider things like NVIDIA, et cetera.

590
00:30:04.345 --> 00:30:09.667
And also NVIDIA has been hit by things
like, for instance, what's happened with

591
00:30:09.667 --> 00:30:11.667
the Trump restrictions on exports to
China,

592
00:30:11.667 --> 00:30:12.427
which I think is also something we must
talk about sometime down the line.

593
00:30:12.428 --> 00:30:17.669
The Chinese are really doing things on a
level that people have been expecting in

594
00:30:17.669 --> 00:30:19.669
terms of production.

595
00:30:19.669 --> 00:30:21.930
They are managing to get chips out there
that are...

596
00:30:22.294 --> 00:30:24.896
performing at levels that people did not
think they were capable of.

597
00:30:25.596 --> 00:30:27.578
And that's, I think, going to be a big
story going forward.

598
00:30:28.578 --> 00:30:34.623
I believe unless we see these AI stuff
take, happen really quickly, and I'm

599
00:30:34.623 --> 00:30:36.623
talking next two or three years,

600
00:30:36.623 --> 00:30:37.205
the Chinese are certainly going to take
over for in AI.

601
00:30:37.625 --> 00:30:43.969
Because effectively, what Trump has done
is he just jumpstarted that local

602
00:30:43.969 --> 00:30:45.969
industry, made sure they make their own
chips, make sure they have their own,

603
00:30:45.969 --> 00:30:46.291
you know, local models and so on.

604
00:30:46.771 --> 00:30:50.614
And the Chinese basically capacity to
improve is incredible.

605
00:30:51.687 --> 00:30:58.551
And so, yeah, like I said, unless AI comes
by like 2038,

606
00:30:58.552 --> 00:31:01.033
2029, by 2030 and so on, it's going to be
a Chinese AI ecosystem.

607
00:31:01.034 --> 00:31:06.116
Okay, we'll do a show on that, but you're
the man driving it, so you've saddled

608
00:31:06.116 --> 00:31:08.116
yourself with that one.

609
00:31:08.116 --> 00:31:10.116
Gentlemen, thank you so much for your
time.

610
00:31:10.116 --> 00:31:14.302
Next week, another extraordinary week,
because it's a Monday and Thursday public

611
00:31:14.302 --> 00:31:16.302
holiday, and everyone I speak to, I say,
well, can we chat next week?

612
00:31:16.302 --> 00:31:17.884
They say, no, I can't, because I'm taking
a week off.

613
00:31:17.904 --> 00:31:20.106
We just had Easter, now we've got Monday
and Thursday.

614
00:31:20.426 --> 00:31:21.126
It's the logic.

615
00:31:21.127 --> 00:31:23.908
Make it Monday and Tuesday or Thursday and
Friday or something.

616
00:31:23.928 --> 00:31:27.711
But anyway, we won't be here next Thursday
because of that public holiday.

617
00:31:28.051 --> 00:31:30.193
David Shapiro is from Sassfin Securities.

618
00:31:30.333 --> 00:31:31.674
When are you back, by the way, David?

619
00:31:33.295 --> 00:31:37.278
I'm actually leaving on the 5th of May,
and I come back on the 7th of May.

620
00:31:37.638 --> 00:31:39.639
But Thursday back is 8th of May.

621
00:31:40.320 --> 00:31:43.902
Well, thanks for taking time out on your
odyssey.

622
00:31:44.863 --> 00:31:45.563
Good.

623
00:31:45.563 --> 00:31:47.725
And Viv Govender is from RAND Swiss.

624
00:31:47.726 --> 00:31:49.046
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

625
00:31:49.866 --> 00:31:56.828
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

626
00:31:56.828 --> 00:31:58.828
various contributors and do not reflect
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627
00:31:58.828 --> 00:32:00.569
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628
00:32:00.889 --> 00:32:05.530
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629
00:32:05.990 --> 00:32:12.972
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
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630
00:32:12.972 --> 00:32:14.972
entity other than the speaker or the
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631
00:32:14.972 --> 00:32:19.414
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

632
00:32:19.414 --> 00:32:21.414
change, revision, and revision.

633
00:32:21.414 --> 00:32:23.414
and rethinking at any time.

634
00:32:23.414 --> 00:32:24.013
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