WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.372 --> 00:00:04.536 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:06.077 --> 00:00:11.402 As you listen to this podcast, the 47th President of the United States of America, 3 00:00:11.402 --> 00:00:13.402 Donald J. 4 00:00:13.402 --> 00:00:14.825 Trump, has completed 100 days in office. 5 00:00:15.345 --> 00:00:18.608 And what 100 days it's been, it doesn't matter whether you like him or you hate 6 00:00:18.608 --> 00:00:18.988 him, 7 00:00:18.988 --> 00:00:24.213 you have to say he's a great source of fascination to more or less everybody. 8 00:00:25.054 --> 00:00:27.556 It's a difficult job that Philip Saunders... 9 00:00:28.016 --> 00:00:31.397 director at the Investment Institute at 91 in London, 10 00:00:31.498 --> 00:00:38.080 and I have today because you can't talk about Donald Trump without certain 11 00:00:38.080 --> 00:00:40.080 personal 12 00:00:40.080 --> 00:00:42.422 passions about how he goes about his business come to the surface. 13 00:00:42.482 --> 00:00:43.683 But I'm going to try. 14 00:00:44.003 --> 00:00:45.383 I know Philip's going to try. 15 00:00:45.723 --> 00:00:52.246 And what we're going to do is give him a hundred day, almost like a school report 16 00:00:52.246 --> 00:00:54.246 on the various things that he's done to the financial 17 00:00:54.246 --> 00:00:55.707 markets and geopolitical markets and so forth. 18 00:00:56.648 --> 00:00:57.348 Philip. 19 00:00:57.773 --> 00:01:04.338 That's me saying let's not argue about Donald Trump and let's not indulge 20 00:01:04.338 --> 00:01:06.338 ourselves in partisan politics, please. 21 00:01:06.338 --> 00:01:08.338 Can you do that? 22 00:01:08.338 --> 00:01:10.338 I can just about do that, I'm sure. 23 00:01:10.338 --> 00:01:10.783 All right. 24 00:01:10.823 --> 00:01:12.204 Let's start with the obvious one then. 25 00:01:12.745 --> 00:01:16.568 And that is the equities markets, notably the US market. 26 00:01:16.928 --> 00:01:19.150 When he came to power, they were pretty buoyant. 27 00:01:19.190 --> 00:01:21.572 And I think they peaked something like February the 13th. 28 00:01:22.352 --> 00:01:28.938 When he started opening his mouth about various things that some people didn't 29 00:01:28.938 --> 00:01:30.938 like, in fact most market participants didn't like, 30 00:01:30.938 --> 00:01:35.183 because that was the peak of the stock market, and from high to low the S&P fell 31 00:01:35.183 --> 00:01:37.183 nearly 32 00:01:37.183 --> 00:01:38.266 20% and they were troubling times. 33 00:01:38.267 --> 00:01:44.952 It was the worst start to a presidential residency in history when it came to stock 34 00:01:44.952 --> 00:01:46.952 market performance. 35 00:01:46.952 --> 00:01:47.654 Maybe you could sort of outline your theories on this. 36 00:01:47.914 --> 00:01:49.616 Was it ripe for the picking already? 37 00:01:49.936 --> 00:01:51.237 Was it Trump related? 38 00:01:51.297 --> 00:01:52.698 Did one man do all this? 39 00:01:53.459 --> 00:01:58.043 Well, I think that we've got to remember that we were in a momentum market, 40 00:01:58.063 --> 00:02:01.946 a strong momentum market before Trump was elected. 41 00:02:02.386 --> 00:02:06.850 There was then a wave of euphoria because when he was previously president, 42 00:02:06.870 --> 00:02:12.815 he was clearly he's pro deregulation, he's pro business, he's anti regulation, etc. 43 00:02:14.176 --> 00:02:18.660 And so that just extended this strong momentum move. 44 00:02:19.588 --> 00:02:23.651 which was led, as we know, by a pretty narrow group of stocks. 45 00:02:26.712 --> 00:02:28.633 And the market was sort of particularly buoyant. 46 00:02:30.254 --> 00:02:34.557 Also, there were seasonal effects, because at the end of the year, you get the 47 00:02:34.557 --> 00:02:36.557 Christmas rally and so forth. 48 00:02:36.557 --> 00:02:36.758 And this was no exception, a particularly strong one. 49 00:02:37.158 --> 00:02:38.859 And that all carried through until February. 50 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:43.301 And then he went and spoiled it all from an equity investor's perspective. 51 00:02:43.902 --> 00:02:46.183 But come on, there was going to be a correction at any rate. 52 00:02:47.504 --> 00:02:48.204 And that's... 53 00:02:48.204 --> 00:02:51.386 certainly what we felt when we had to write the outlook. 54 00:02:52.106 --> 00:02:54.308 The US market was getting overextended. 55 00:02:54.388 --> 00:02:56.129 This particular bull run was mature. 56 00:02:56.969 --> 00:03:00.031 And these market cycles, you have corrective phases. 57 00:03:00.371 --> 00:03:03.053 Markets get ahead of themselves in any event. 58 00:03:03.593 --> 00:03:10.397 And it may well be there's a sort of particular trigger that determines the 59 00:03:10.397 --> 00:03:12.397 timing of a correction and possibly its 60 00:03:12.397 --> 00:03:14.397 severity. 61 00:03:14.397 --> 00:03:14.720 But it's part of the sort of normal behavior of markets. 62 00:03:15.200 --> 00:03:19.243 So we shouldn't sort of get too carried away about that and sort of, you know, 63 00:03:19.303 --> 00:03:22.925 pointing a finger at Trump as being basically sort of spoiling the party. 64 00:03:24.186 --> 00:03:26.708 The party was going to get spoiled at any rate at some point. 65 00:03:27.228 --> 00:03:27.928 Yes, it was. 66 00:03:27.928 --> 00:03:31.111 But on the other hand, the naysayers, 67 00:03:31.451 --> 00:03:37.956 when it comes to Trump's very sort of muscular political stance 68 00:03:38.596 --> 00:03:43.900 in various areas, would say as soon as he stood up with that board in the Rose 69 00:03:43.900 --> 00:03:45.900 Garden. 70 00:03:45.900 --> 00:03:51.165 that day hastily scribbled a board about with all the countries and what he was 71 00:03:51.165 --> 00:03:53.165 going to do to them 72 00:03:53.165 --> 00:03:57.569 the market was closed of course he made sure of that but the markets never closed 73 00:03:57.569 --> 00:03:59.569 so as soon as the futures markets opened at 74 00:03:59.569 --> 00:04:04.734 midnight central european time they started ticking lower they were two 75 00:04:04.734 --> 00:04:06.734 percent down and then by the end of the day the real session the next day 76 00:04:06.734 --> 00:04:07.876 they were down anything between five and seven percent 77 00:04:07.936 --> 00:04:14.400 depending on your chosen index then i thought that's it bit of a washout and 78 00:04:14.400 --> 00:04:16.400 that was it but no That was the Thursday. 79 00:04:16.400 --> 00:04:17.242 The Friday, same again, except worse. 80 00:04:17.243 --> 00:04:20.303 And I thought this is something completely different. 81 00:04:20.523 --> 00:04:25.125 And the complete difference factor was Donald Trump, I believe. 82 00:04:26.686 --> 00:04:27.386 Sure. 83 00:04:27.386 --> 00:04:29.347 So you've got to remember that. 84 00:04:29.447 --> 00:04:35.069 In fact, actually, I think that the most serious market reaction actually was not 85 00:04:35.069 --> 00:04:37.069 in equities. 86 00:04:37.069 --> 00:04:41.272 It was in bonds, because basically, you know, the kind of things he was, the 87 00:04:41.272 --> 00:04:43.272 disruption he was. 88 00:04:43.272 --> 00:04:49.334 threatening, if you like, you know, by ratcheting up the demands for higher and 89 00:04:49.334 --> 00:04:51.334 higher tariffs, 90 00:04:51.334 --> 00:04:54.295 particularly against China, you know, obviously a major supplier to US industry. 91 00:04:55.495 --> 00:05:02.076 Actually, it was the bond market misbehaving that I think basically 92 00:05:02.076 --> 00:05:04.076 triggered a change of course and indicated 93 00:05:04.076 --> 00:05:05.537 that, you know, because you've got to remember that... 94 00:05:06.377 --> 00:05:12.561 The US is now highly indebted, you know, 122% plus government debt to GDP ratio, 95 00:05:12.701 --> 00:05:14.402 which is sort of uncomfortable. 96 00:05:15.062 --> 00:05:21.726 And it relies profoundly on flows of foreign savings in order to actually fund 97 00:05:21.726 --> 00:05:22.106 that 98 00:05:22.106 --> 00:05:22.466 deficit. 99 00:05:23.347 --> 00:05:30.191 And so the fact that the dollar went down, and bond yields actually rose rather than 100 00:05:30.191 --> 00:05:32.191 fall, because normally, 101 00:05:32.191 --> 00:05:33.833 basically, in a risk off event, the dollar would rally. 102 00:05:34.866 --> 00:05:39.910 and bonds would also rally, and equities would sell off. 103 00:05:40.670 --> 00:05:41.370 That was the standard. 104 00:05:41.651 --> 00:05:43.733 This time around, that didn't happen. 105 00:05:44.674 --> 00:05:50.359 And that was, you know, and Trump, you know, well, certainly his advisers were 106 00:05:50.359 --> 00:05:52.359 pretty concerned about that. 107 00:05:52.359 --> 00:05:58.045 And that has, you know, I think triggered him to sort of pull back and to realize 108 00:05:58.045 --> 00:06:00.045 that, you know, 109 00:06:00.045 --> 00:06:02.189 actually banging the table like this, you know, does have... 110 00:06:03.073 --> 00:06:09.498 you know could plunge the u.s economy ultimately into recession uh primarily of 111 00:06:09.498 --> 00:06:11.498 things like the bond market misbehaves 112 00:06:11.498 --> 00:06:16.102 yes yes the bond market was terribly terribly interesting because it's the 113 00:06:16.102 --> 00:06:18.102 biggest market in the world we can't even begin to comprehend its 114 00:06:18.102 --> 00:06:22.406 vastness well i can't uh and it sold off in other words the bond market sold off 115 00:06:22.406 --> 00:06:24.406 and as there's a 116 00:06:24.406 --> 00:06:30.372 a relationship where when bonds come off yields go up or when yields go up bonds 117 00:06:30.372 --> 00:06:32.372 come down yields went up, 118 00:06:32.372 --> 00:06:34.372 bond prices came down. 119 00:06:34.372 --> 00:06:37.221 And at the same time, as you quite rightly said, equities are coming down. 120 00:06:37.601 --> 00:06:39.042 And you don't see that very often. 121 00:06:39.043 --> 00:06:45.448 In fact, I don't think I've ever seen it to such a correlated extent in my time in 122 00:06:45.448 --> 00:06:47.448 the financial markets. 123 00:06:47.448 --> 00:06:49.070 So there's one safe haven gone, the U.S. 124 00:06:49.151 --> 00:06:50.051 Treasury market. 125 00:06:50.332 --> 00:06:54.035 Other bonds did rather well or relatively well out of it. 126 00:06:54.215 --> 00:06:56.016 The dollar used to be a safe haven. 127 00:06:56.296 --> 00:06:59.959 That tumbled a little bit excessively and probably will recover a bit. 128 00:06:59.979 --> 00:07:01.621 But nonetheless, it tumbled. 129 00:07:01.901 --> 00:07:08.344 The only thing that seems to have done well in my next category, which was the 130 00:07:08.344 --> 00:07:10.344 safe haven, is gold, 131 00:07:10.344 --> 00:07:12.344 which has been astonishing. 132 00:07:12.344 --> 00:07:14.344 3,500 plus at one stage, Philip. 133 00:07:14.344 --> 00:07:16.344 Yes. 134 00:07:16.344 --> 00:07:17.227 Well, you know, of course, it's a barometer, if you like, 135 00:07:18.388 --> 00:07:22.209 of this trend towards deglobalization. 136 00:07:23.970 --> 00:07:30.913 And gold, this time around, this particular cycle, prior to this particular 137 00:07:30.913 --> 00:07:32.913 sort of strong move, further move up. 138 00:07:32.913 --> 00:07:33.634 It has really been driven by central bank buying. 139 00:07:33.975 --> 00:07:38.797 And you can date that really back to sort of when things started to go wrong. 140 00:07:38.837 --> 00:07:44.941 The first Russian invasion of Ukraine, you know, where they took over the Crimea. 141 00:07:46.022 --> 00:07:52.646 And then basically we sort of kicked off again after the second Russian invasion 142 00:07:53.546 --> 00:07:54.247 of Ukraine. 143 00:07:56.208 --> 00:07:57.909 The Europeans froze the Russians. 144 00:07:59.109 --> 00:08:06.074 foreign exchange reserves that were held in euros predominantly and and of course 145 00:08:06.074 --> 00:08:08.074 basically that means that you know it's 146 00:08:08.074 --> 00:08:12.278 a signal that you know when you need to get hold of your reserves you need to get 147 00:08:12.278 --> 00:08:14.278 hold of your reserves and 148 00:08:14.278 --> 00:08:15.481 if they're going to be frozen you 149 00:08:15.482 --> 00:08:22.365 know by hostile power then it's not going to do you much good when you actually need 150 00:08:22.365 --> 00:08:24.365 that money and so 151 00:08:24.365 --> 00:08:26.528 therefore we've seen you know significant move to diversify using gold 152 00:08:27.977 --> 00:08:34.583 on the part of central banks around the world in order to reduce their reliance on 153 00:08:34.583 --> 00:08:36.583 the US and US capital markets. 154 00:08:36.583 --> 00:08:38.306 So that has been a sort of principal driver behind gold. 155 00:08:38.766 --> 00:08:45.191 And then, of course, Trump ratcheting the conflict up, you know, again, 156 00:08:45.331 --> 00:08:51.897 suggests that there's going to be an acceleration in this process of, you know, 157 00:08:51.897 --> 00:08:53.897 global unraveling, if you like. 158 00:08:53.897 --> 00:08:56.961 And that basically and the failure of other assets to actually provide perfect. 159 00:08:57.081 --> 00:09:03.763 protective characteristics as basically you know supercharged gold let's look at a 160 00:09:03.763 --> 00:09:05.763 couple of side shows now 161 00:09:05.763 --> 00:09:10.945 and when i say side shows i don't mean to trivialize them at all but the gaza 162 00:09:10.945 --> 00:09:12.945 situation the the first thing he said was 163 00:09:12.945 --> 00:09:15.126 uh i think he woke up one morning and he said goodness me look 164 00:09:15.166 --> 00:09:21.348 at the water as he calls it there in other words the the beachfront uh look at the 165 00:09:21.348 --> 00:09:23.348 potential here because the place is ruined 166 00:09:23.348 --> 00:09:24.989 and I can turn it all myself and my partners. 167 00:09:25.289 --> 00:09:28.550 can turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East. 168 00:09:28.790 --> 00:09:34.772 And instead of thinking about it and talking about it rationally, as his father 169 00:09:34.772 --> 00:09:36.772 would have done, if you read the book Lucky Losers, 170 00:09:36.772 --> 00:09:40.573 you get an idea that his father was a meticulous man when it came to numbers, 171 00:09:40.573 --> 00:09:42.573 and only when every 172 00:09:42.573 --> 00:09:46.155 I was dotted and T was crossed and all those other things would he put an ad in 173 00:09:46.155 --> 00:09:48.155 the paper and say, 174 00:09:48.155 --> 00:09:49.996 these apartments available for rent and so on. 175 00:09:50.096 --> 00:09:54.837 Whereas his son, he's more, he thinks that the name Trump and 176 00:09:56.299 --> 00:10:00.384 the cult of celebrity will help, even though he's got absolutely no plan. 177 00:10:00.644 --> 00:10:01.806 And that's the first thing. 178 00:10:01.826 --> 00:10:06.311 Then there was the 24 hours the Ukraine-Russia war will be solved, and 179 00:10:06.311 --> 00:10:08.311 that failed. 180 00:10:08.311 --> 00:10:10.311 I don't know, Philip. 181 00:10:10.311 --> 00:10:12.311 The sideshows are... 182 00:10:12.311 --> 00:10:14.311 It's somewhat disturbing to me. 183 00:10:14.311 --> 00:10:15.674 So I think that you shouldn't get too carried away. 184 00:10:15.774 --> 00:10:22.638 He basically shoots from the hip verbally a lot of the time and he says things that 185 00:10:22.678 --> 00:10:25.480 aren't really serious and people take them too seriously. 186 00:10:25.620 --> 00:10:27.741 Why does he say them if he knows they're not serious? 187 00:10:27.781 --> 00:10:29.422 Because he obviously knows they're not serious. 188 00:10:29.902 --> 00:10:35.485 Because he wants to get a reaction and he wants to be centre of attention in social 189 00:10:35.485 --> 00:10:35.525 media 190 00:10:37.306 --> 00:10:38.347 because that's worked for him. 191 00:10:39.043 --> 00:10:41.684 And the fact that it's sort of, you know, 192 00:10:41.764 --> 00:10:48.747 he's president and this is not particularly what we'd expect from 193 00:10:48.747 --> 00:10:50.747 somebody who would like to 194 00:10:50.747 --> 00:10:55.490 be seen as a statesman in a conventional sense is, you know, 195 00:10:55.930 --> 00:10:57.811 is just the reality of Donald Trump. 196 00:10:58.431 --> 00:11:00.612 But to say he doesn't have a plan, I think is wrong. 197 00:11:01.612 --> 00:11:07.275 I think that there is evidence that there, you know, that there is, well, there are a 198 00:11:07.275 --> 00:11:09.275 series of objectives. 199 00:11:09.275 --> 00:11:12.217 And in the same way that in his first administration, 200 00:11:12.297 --> 00:11:19.281 he basically started to force the unraveling of what we used 201 00:11:19.282 --> 00:11:24.604 to call Chimerica, the integration of the Chinese and the American economies. 202 00:11:25.685 --> 00:11:27.786 And, you know, frankly, he was right about that. 203 00:11:28.426 --> 00:11:34.449 He didn't do it particularly effectively because China has gone on to get a lot 204 00:11:34.449 --> 00:11:36.449 stronger subsequently. 205 00:11:36.449 --> 00:11:36.791 But he... 206 00:11:38.376 --> 00:11:40.798 He said enough was enough. 207 00:11:41.518 --> 00:11:47.443 And then the Biden administration followed that policy and actually made it even 208 00:11:47.443 --> 00:11:47.543 tougher. 209 00:11:49.325 --> 00:11:53.849 And if we look at what he's trying to do at the moment, he's 100 days in. 210 00:11:54.810 --> 00:11:59.334 We reckon he's got sort of political inertia he's going to set in. 211 00:11:59.354 --> 00:12:05.419 He's going to be able to do very little, certainly after the first two years, and 212 00:12:05.419 --> 00:12:07.419 arguably sort of... 213 00:12:07.419 --> 00:12:10.915 200 days in, if you haven't really sort of got momentum, then that's going to be 214 00:12:10.915 --> 00:12:11.096 tough. 215 00:12:11.455 --> 00:12:15.599 And he's got ambitious plans to actually reshape 216 00:12:16.179 --> 00:12:22.884 America's defense commitments to address the problem of sustainability 217 00:12:24.245 --> 00:12:24.945 of debt. 218 00:12:26.667 --> 00:12:29.449 So he's got a number of things he wants to achieve. 219 00:12:29.489 --> 00:12:31.511 you might not like... 220 00:12:31.711 --> 00:12:37.034 the way that he's going about it, and it may well be that the way he's going about 221 00:12:37.034 --> 00:12:39.034 it is counterproductive, 222 00:12:39.034 --> 00:12:39.395 which will prevent him from achieving his objectives. 223 00:12:39.816 --> 00:12:42.937 But he has got a series of objectives that he's trying to get on with. 224 00:12:43.938 --> 00:12:50.782 And, you know, I suspect he will, you know, ultimately succeed in part, but he's 225 00:12:50.782 --> 00:12:52.782 got to be careful, 226 00:12:52.782 --> 00:12:53.703 clearly, to not get too carried away, 227 00:12:53.803 --> 00:13:00.067 because basically to see further substantial weakness in the equity market. 228 00:13:00.563 --> 00:13:05.167 He's going to damage his popularity and damage his ability to actually get stuff 229 00:13:05.167 --> 00:13:05.648 done. 230 00:13:05.648 --> 00:13:08.630 Speaking of damage, a lot of people are saying it doesn't matter what he does now. 231 00:13:08.631 --> 00:13:15.496 It doesn't matter if he cuts Chinese tariffs from 145% down to 25%. A lot of 232 00:13:15.496 --> 00:13:17.496 the damage has already been done. 233 00:13:17.496 --> 00:13:17.497 It's going to be difficult to undo. 234 00:13:17.878 --> 00:13:24.363 Do you believe that in his first 100 days, a good deal of damage has been done and a 235 00:13:24.363 --> 00:13:26.363 good deal of confidence in the United 236 00:13:26.363 --> 00:13:28.527 States and the United States administration has been shattered? 237 00:13:29.671 --> 00:13:36.614 Yeah, I mean, I think that the people really now get the fact that there's going 238 00:13:36.614 --> 00:13:38.614 to be a serious 239 00:13:38.614 --> 00:13:41.916 reset in global geopolitics, in things like defense spending, 240 00:13:42.537 --> 00:13:45.798 and the willingness and indeed the ability of the U.S. 241 00:13:45.818 --> 00:13:48.979 to play this role of sort of global number one. 242 00:13:50.220 --> 00:13:57.063 You know, they're saying, right, you know, we cannot sustain sort of imperial America 243 00:13:57.063 --> 00:13:59.063 in the style that we've. 244 00:13:59.063 --> 00:13:59.745 you know, been used to after the Second World War. 245 00:14:00.385 --> 00:14:04.168 And if you have a problem with that, then clearly a lot of people are shocked. 246 00:14:04.228 --> 00:14:07.590 You've got German politicians weeping and all this kind of stuff. 247 00:14:08.651 --> 00:14:13.134 But come on, this is reality, the rise of China, you know, 248 00:14:13.855 --> 00:14:20.460 and I think you can sort of over egg the fact that they're sort of this sort of 249 00:14:20.460 --> 00:14:22.460 evil empire and so forth, led by communists, etc, 250 00:14:22.460 --> 00:14:24.460 wanting to take over the world. 251 00:14:24.460 --> 00:14:27.805 But they represent a very serious geoeconomic and geopolitical threat to the 252 00:14:27.805 --> 00:14:27.926 US. 253 00:14:28.386 --> 00:14:34.571 And the US basically is trying to get its act together, or Trump is trying to make 254 00:14:34.571 --> 00:14:36.571 America great again, i.e. 255 00:14:36.571 --> 00:14:38.571 what does that actually mean? 256 00:14:38.571 --> 00:14:42.157 Well, it's to actually sort itself out so that it can compete effectively with 257 00:14:42.157 --> 00:14:42.356 China. 258 00:14:42.356 --> 00:14:43.358 That's really the thing. 259 00:14:44.179 --> 00:14:49.623 And yeah, he's managed to upset his allies and this, that and the other, 260 00:14:49.743 --> 00:14:54.487 but a lot of his allies have literally been enjoying an unlevel playing field. 261 00:14:54.607 --> 00:14:56.670 You know, they haven't been paying enough for defense. 262 00:14:57.612 --> 00:14:59.254 They've got sneaky tariffs. 263 00:14:59.635 --> 00:15:06.466 This idea that we're in this wonderful world, seamless world of free trade, I 264 00:15:06.466 --> 00:15:08.466 mean, it's a sort of, 265 00:15:08.466 --> 00:15:10.466 it's a nonsense, you know. 266 00:15:10.466 --> 00:15:10.774 OK, tariffs were relatively low, 267 00:15:10.914 --> 00:15:16.515 but there are lots of exceptions and there are a lot of non-tariff barriers and so 268 00:15:16.515 --> 00:15:16.655 forth. 269 00:15:17.015 --> 00:15:19.136 And by and large, you know, the U.S. 270 00:15:19.236 --> 00:15:24.597 sort of was prepared to put up with that because, you know, certain sections of 271 00:15:24.597 --> 00:15:24.898 U.S. 272 00:15:24.898 --> 00:15:26.458 society actually did pretty well out of it. 273 00:15:26.918 --> 00:15:33.120 But, you know, unfortunately, you know, the absorbing China, you know, 274 00:15:33.180 --> 00:15:37.901 a typical sort of, you know, Dirigis type economy with... 275 00:15:38.745 --> 00:15:43.789 a lot of state intervention, you know, it was just too big and too successful. 276 00:15:44.610 --> 00:15:47.092 So now the system has to change. 277 00:15:47.933 --> 00:15:49.894 And that's the important thing. 278 00:15:50.295 --> 00:15:52.517 You know, tariffs is a peripheral thing. 279 00:15:53.117 --> 00:15:59.663 I don't think that, you know, tariffs is a sort of, as a weapon, you know, is it 280 00:15:59.663 --> 00:16:01.663 really going to, are they really going to be that effective? 281 00:16:01.663 --> 00:16:04.226 They're going to raise a bit of money because, you know, when all the dust 282 00:16:04.226 --> 00:16:06.226 settles, 283 00:16:06.226 --> 00:16:07.349 I think we've passed peak tariffs or peak. 284 00:16:07.509 --> 00:16:13.014 tariffs in rhetoric, then, you know, you are going to have tariffs, maybe 10% 285 00:16:13.054 --> 00:16:19.360 or something like that across the board in the US, which is, you know, which is like 286 00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:21.360 a tax, you know, 287 00:16:21.360 --> 00:16:22.082 and American consumers will be paying some of that. 288 00:16:23.323 --> 00:16:29.229 And the US, you know, needs more revenues, because otherwise, 289 00:16:29.230 --> 00:16:34.013 the budget deficit problem is going to get worse, which will leave the country more 290 00:16:34.013 --> 00:16:34.152 vulnerable. 291 00:16:34.441 --> 00:16:35.922 OK, let's have a look at another few things. 292 00:16:35.982 --> 00:16:40.245 We can't go into each one in any great detail, but we can look at the Panama 293 00:16:40.245 --> 00:16:42.245 Canal. 294 00:16:42.245 --> 00:16:44.628 We can look at Canada and Greenland. 295 00:16:45.029 --> 00:16:47.090 You can look at some of the appointees. 296 00:16:47.110 --> 00:16:52.754 I mean, the most notable one at the moment in the news is Pete Hegseth, who is the 297 00:16:52.754 --> 00:16:54.754 Defence Secretary. 298 00:16:54.754 --> 00:16:55.436 He's clearly out of his depth, again, my opinion. 299 00:16:56.257 --> 00:17:01.821 So it just all comes together at the same time. 300 00:17:02.181 --> 00:17:05.805 I mean, there's the really meaty stuff, which you've beautifully described. 301 00:17:05.806 --> 00:17:07.346 And maybe he does have a plan. 302 00:17:07.406 --> 00:17:08.427 I really hope he does. 303 00:17:08.748 --> 00:17:12.071 And then there's the other stuff, which really annoys people, Philip. 304 00:17:12.451 --> 00:17:15.114 And I don't want to be annoyed by the most powerful man in the world. 305 00:17:17.016 --> 00:17:21.260 Yeah, well, I mean, I'm afraid, Lindsay, you know, that is your lot in life. 306 00:17:21.480 --> 00:17:23.642 And I can't really do very much about that. 307 00:17:23.722 --> 00:17:25.144 No, but you can explain it to me. 308 00:17:26.345 --> 00:17:31.128 You can explain it to me, Philip, and then at the end, you're going to tell me how to 309 00:17:31.128 --> 00:17:33.128 take advantage of it, of course. 310 00:17:33.128 --> 00:17:34.291 This time around, he's appointed his people. 311 00:17:36.072 --> 00:17:39.354 Some will fail and some will succeed. 312 00:17:39.474 --> 00:17:44.798 And I suspect that, you know, Besant, as US Treasury Secretary, you know, 313 00:17:44.799 --> 00:17:46.739 will turn out to be a very good appointment. 314 00:17:46.880 --> 00:17:47.580 Yes. 315 00:17:47.580 --> 00:17:49.742 And he certainly pulled Trump back from the brink. 316 00:17:50.542 --> 00:17:54.365 He understands markets in a way that Yellen, his predecessor... 317 00:17:55.129 --> 00:17:57.171 you know, was sort of hopelessly out of depth. 318 00:17:58.412 --> 00:18:03.315 And, you know, Hesketh, basically, if he isn't up to the job, he's going to get 319 00:18:03.315 --> 00:18:03.376 fired. 320 00:18:06.318 --> 00:18:13.183 And, you know, maybe he, you know, peaked as an anchor on Fox News, and that was, it 321 00:18:13.183 --> 00:18:15.183 was a bad appointment. 322 00:18:15.183 --> 00:18:20.228 You know, Trump, you know, you know, he doesn't go down with the ship if somebody 323 00:18:20.228 --> 00:18:22.228 isn't performing. 324 00:18:22.228 --> 00:18:25.643 So I wouldn't get too hung up about Mr Husky. 325 00:18:25.644 --> 00:18:26.344 I can't help it. 326 00:18:26.344 --> 00:18:30.845 I turn on the television, I get hung up on little things like that. 327 00:18:30.925 --> 00:18:32.265 It's like his cabinet meetings. 328 00:18:32.266 --> 00:18:33.566 He's got everyone recorded. 329 00:18:33.926 --> 00:18:37.087 And he sits there, the emperor, wearing no clothes. 330 00:18:37.688 --> 00:18:39.849 And it's like in the old days. 331 00:18:40.429 --> 00:18:46.471 I don't know if you're a channel surfer, if you sit at home after a long day's toil 332 00:18:46.471 --> 00:18:48.471 at 91 in London. 333 00:18:48.471 --> 00:18:50.471 Productive. 334 00:18:50.471 --> 00:18:52.471 But you want to watch something. 335 00:18:52.471 --> 00:18:54.471 And so you go through the channels. 336 00:18:54.471 --> 00:18:56.471 There's nothing there. 337 00:18:56.471 --> 00:18:58.471 Click, click, click, click, click. 338 00:18:58.471 --> 00:19:00.471 In the old days, it used to be court jesters. 339 00:19:00.471 --> 00:19:02.471 You'd sit there, and a number of court jesters would be waiting in the wings. 340 00:19:02.471 --> 00:19:04.471 And you'd say, right, you're on. 341 00:19:04.471 --> 00:19:06.471 Go and make him laugh, will you? 342 00:19:06.471 --> 00:19:08.471 And he dances around and does some juggling and whatever, and the emperor 343 00:19:08.471 --> 00:19:10.471 claps. 344 00:19:10.471 --> 00:19:12.471 And so it goes on. 345 00:19:12.471 --> 00:19:14.471 Some are rubbish. 346 00:19:14.471 --> 00:19:16.471 What he does with the cabinet meeting, he goes, right, you. 347 00:19:16.471 --> 00:19:18.471 And they say, Mr. 348 00:19:18.471 --> 00:19:20.471 President, I just want to thank you for doing everything you said you'd do in 349 00:19:20.471 --> 00:19:22.471 this. 350 00:19:22.471 --> 00:19:24.471 And this sycophantic spew of praise. 351 00:19:24.471 --> 00:19:26.471 It's just like that. 352 00:19:26.471 --> 00:19:28.471 And I don't know. 353 00:19:28.471 --> 00:19:30.471 Again, I can't see leaders of the past doing that, and I can't help but be 354 00:19:30.471 --> 00:19:32.471 annoyed. 355 00:19:32.471 --> 00:19:34.471 I'm going to have to go and see someone about it, I think. 356 00:19:34.471 --> 00:19:36.471 Clearly. 357 00:19:36.471 --> 00:19:38.921 So we've got to ask ourselves, yeah, I get that, and that's the reaction of a lot of 358 00:19:38.921 --> 00:19:39.202 people. 359 00:19:39.202 --> 00:19:45.444 They scratch their heads and think, you know, this is, well, I mean, this is the 360 00:19:45.444 --> 00:19:47.444 kind of behavior we'd expect from Putin. 361 00:19:48.410 --> 00:19:54.617 where sort of some sort of unfortunate general has to come and sort of spout 362 00:19:54.617 --> 00:19:56.617 nonsense and so forth 363 00:19:56.617 --> 00:19:58.617 on Russian TV. 364 00:19:58.617 --> 00:19:58.782 But just think about it a moment. 365 00:19:58.802 --> 00:20:02.066 I mean, Stump is, you know, an unusual person. 366 00:20:02.086 --> 00:20:04.468 He's not a typical politician, et cetera, et cetera. 367 00:20:04.689 --> 00:20:05.389 Yeah. 368 00:20:05.389 --> 00:20:05.909 And. 369 00:20:06.146 --> 00:20:10.547 You know, despite the fact that a lot of people, a lot of the electorate in the US, 370 00:20:10.547 --> 00:20:12.547 you know, 371 00:20:12.547 --> 00:20:16.989 have your kind of feelings about him, he got elected with a significant majority. 372 00:20:18.129 --> 00:20:19.550 And so why was that? 373 00:20:19.730 --> 00:20:24.771 Well, it's because basically, you know, it's no, I don't think it's just promises. 374 00:20:24.811 --> 00:20:30.333 I think it's because it's a rejection of the existing political establishment, 375 00:20:31.373 --> 00:20:34.714 which has, you know, left America vulnerable. 376 00:20:35.090 --> 00:20:36.972 It's made a lot of poor choices, 377 00:20:38.473 --> 00:20:42.556 which has resulted in extraordinary degrees of inequality in the U.S. 378 00:20:43.457 --> 00:20:45.259 The haves obviously have a lot more. 379 00:20:45.899 --> 00:20:47.901 The have-nots basically haven't had it. 380 00:20:48.101 --> 00:20:50.603 You know, it just hasn't worked for them for many years. 381 00:20:51.224 --> 00:20:54.386 So globalization, you know, has been great for the few. 382 00:20:55.347 --> 00:20:57.629 It has been less great for the majority. 383 00:20:58.790 --> 00:21:03.054 And this is a rebalancing and this is a rejection of the existing political order. 384 00:21:03.934 --> 00:21:09.800 And, you know, that's put a populist, a demagogue like Trump in power, 385 00:21:11.241 --> 00:21:13.603 whereas previously he wouldn't have stood a chance. 386 00:21:13.743 --> 00:21:18.768 Before we get on to what to do now, Philip, the most important part of our 387 00:21:18.768 --> 00:21:20.768 conversation. 388 00:21:20.768 --> 00:21:24.333 One of the reasons he got elected is because of the cost of living crisis. 389 00:21:24.693 --> 00:21:29.938 And even though inflation was coming down, inflation was still there, two and a half, 390 00:21:29.938 --> 00:21:31.938 three and a half percent, whatever it is. 391 00:21:31.938 --> 00:21:32.240 And he said, I'm going to bring down the price of eggs. 392 00:21:32.241 --> 00:21:39.025 And he had a little table in front of him with lots of different staples and 393 00:21:39.025 --> 00:21:41.025 biscuits and 394 00:21:41.025 --> 00:21:43.025 everything else. 395 00:21:43.025 --> 00:21:45.025 Not that he's ever been in a grocery store, of course, but that doesn't matter. 396 00:21:45.025 --> 00:21:47.025 I don't mind that whatsoever. 397 00:21:47.025 --> 00:21:47.312 If I never have to go in one again, it'll be too soon. 398 00:21:47.633 --> 00:21:52.617 But the point is that the price of eggs, he keeps on saying, the price of eggs is 399 00:21:52.617 --> 00:21:52.836 falling. 400 00:21:52.836 --> 00:21:53.318 It's not. 401 00:21:53.557 --> 00:21:56.040 The price of eggs is as high as it's ever been. 402 00:21:56.041 --> 00:21:58.722 In fact, in March, it was 6.3% higher. 403 00:21:59.618 --> 00:22:00.318 I think so. 404 00:22:00.318 --> 00:22:04.121 He said, I'm going to make things better and things are going to be cheaper, but he 405 00:22:04.121 --> 00:22:06.121 hasn't. 406 00:22:06.121 --> 00:22:08.121 And people forget about that. 407 00:22:08.121 --> 00:22:09.424 I've got to give him more than 100 days. 408 00:22:09.904 --> 00:22:13.266 I mean, you're talking of moving a supertank. 409 00:22:13.646 --> 00:22:19.249 So, you know, this idea that you can have sort of instant gratification is just sort 410 00:22:19.249 --> 00:22:21.249 of naive. 411 00:22:21.249 --> 00:22:24.832 You know, China at least has the has, you know, 412 00:22:24.912 --> 00:22:27.894 stability in terms of government continuity in terms of government. 413 00:22:28.134 --> 00:22:28.834 The U.S. 414 00:22:28.834 --> 00:22:33.918 is, you know, you've got midterms coming up in two years, less than two years now. 415 00:22:35.079 --> 00:22:39.622 And then basically, you know, probably lose control of at least one of the 416 00:22:39.622 --> 00:22:39.723 houses. 417 00:22:40.763 --> 00:22:46.106 And then basically another year after that, it's presidential election campaign 418 00:22:46.106 --> 00:22:48.106 season again. 419 00:22:48.106 --> 00:22:49.369 So it's really difficult to actually achieve anything. 420 00:22:49.849 --> 00:22:51.490 And sure, you know, you've got this. 421 00:22:51.750 --> 00:22:57.014 He has is using a lot of executive powers in a. 422 00:22:57.494 --> 00:23:00.216 sort of somewhat dubious way, it has to be said. 423 00:23:01.177 --> 00:23:04.780 But he's doing that simply because basically it's the only way to get 424 00:23:04.780 --> 00:23:06.780 anything done, 425 00:23:06.780 --> 00:23:09.563 given the endemic inertia of the US political system. 426 00:23:09.844 --> 00:23:15.228 Hence the urgency of doing deals and being seen to make progress and all this kind of 427 00:23:15.228 --> 00:23:15.468 stuff. 428 00:23:15.848 --> 00:23:17.029 I wish him well, Philip. 429 00:23:17.030 --> 00:23:23.074 The opportunity to make real changes, you know, is going to narrow pretty 430 00:23:23.074 --> 00:23:25.074 significantly. 431 00:23:25.074 --> 00:23:27.074 I wish him well. 432 00:23:27.074 --> 00:23:29.074 I really, really do. 433 00:23:29.074 --> 00:23:31.074 I like to be annoyed by him. 434 00:23:31.074 --> 00:23:33.074 It's a sick sort of perversion that I have. 435 00:23:33.074 --> 00:23:36.978 But I do agree that he has in his own special little way, some sort of plan 436 00:23:36.978 --> 00:23:38.978 somehow. 437 00:23:38.978 --> 00:23:42.979 It's just somebody's got to take him aside, like the Treasury Secretary, and 438 00:23:42.979 --> 00:23:44.979 say, look, why don't we do this, Mr. 439 00:23:44.979 --> 00:23:46.979 President? 440 00:23:46.979 --> 00:23:48.979 I think it's a really good idea you've got. 441 00:23:48.979 --> 00:23:50.979 But maybe we could just tweak it just a little bit. 442 00:23:50.979 --> 00:23:52.979 But will they say it? 443 00:23:52.979 --> 00:23:54.979 I don't know. 444 00:23:54.979 --> 00:23:56.979 I hope he's successful. 445 00:23:56.979 --> 00:23:58.979 and I hope you're successful as well. 446 00:23:58.979 --> 00:23:59.567 at 91 and if so how do you plan to be where does it go from here at the moment 447 00:23:59.567 --> 00:24:01.567 as we record this podcast the us 448 00:24:01.567 --> 00:24:06.391 markets having um a second lovely day yeah so i think that um you know obviously 449 00:24:06.391 --> 00:24:08.391 markets got 450 00:24:08.391 --> 00:24:10.414 oversold um you know the reaction to uh to 451 00:24:10.454 --> 00:24:17.319 what was going on the uncertainty and the sort of poor positioning of market 452 00:24:17.319 --> 00:24:19.319 participants uh and so you've seen this 453 00:24:19.319 --> 00:24:19.420 sort of brutal unwinding at positions. 454 00:24:19.920 --> 00:24:21.561 And that's now settling down a bit. 455 00:24:22.582 --> 00:24:25.864 And so really the sort of, you know, we can have a U.S. 456 00:24:25.944 --> 00:24:26.945 recession or not. 457 00:24:27.545 --> 00:24:32.088 And that sort of, you know, rather depends on where we end up tariff wise. 458 00:24:32.548 --> 00:24:38.111 It depends on the underlying strength of the economy, because we think corporate 459 00:24:38.111 --> 00:24:40.111 sectors in pretty good shape. 460 00:24:40.111 --> 00:24:41.613 Actually, consumer balance sheets are in pretty good shape. 461 00:24:42.294 --> 00:24:45.896 And of course, the Fed has got a lot of scope to cut interest rates if things get 462 00:24:45.896 --> 00:24:46.095 weak. 463 00:24:46.376 --> 00:24:49.398 So the market, I think, sort of recognizes that... 464 00:24:50.146 --> 00:24:55.330 You know, we're sort of in this sort of corrective phase and we'll have rallies 465 00:24:55.330 --> 00:24:57.330 and we'll have relapses and so forth. 466 00:24:57.330 --> 00:25:01.774 But unless something new comes out of the woodwork, then we're in this sort of 467 00:25:01.774 --> 00:25:03.774 sideways kind of environment. 468 00:25:03.774 --> 00:25:08.840 However, there is a big thing going on, and that is that there's far too much 469 00:25:08.840 --> 00:25:10.840 international crowding in U.S. 470 00:25:10.840 --> 00:25:12.840 assets. 471 00:25:12.840 --> 00:25:17.266 Foreign investors basically had thrown the towel in and were being dragged more and 472 00:25:17.266 --> 00:25:19.266 more into US assets as 473 00:25:19.266 --> 00:25:23.371 they became larger constituents of the sort of typical indices that people use, 474 00:25:23.371 --> 00:25:25.371 like the MSCI, 475 00:25:25.371 --> 00:25:25.873 all countries' world index. 476 00:25:26.894 --> 00:25:33.340 And so that now, I think that really what this recent period, 477 00:25:34.281 --> 00:25:38.144 the significance of it is that it's marked an inflection point. 478 00:25:38.564 --> 00:25:40.886 in what we labeled as U.S. 479 00:25:40.926 --> 00:25:44.968 exceptionalism, you know, exceptional relative outperformance, you know, 480 00:25:46.289 --> 00:25:48.411 that had been seriously overdone. 481 00:25:48.911 --> 00:25:53.194 So we're now seeing basically a sort of rotation out of U.S. 482 00:25:53.274 --> 00:25:58.398 assets, a rebalancing, if you like, as international investors sort of, you know, 483 00:25:58.658 --> 00:26:00.659 rebalance their risk exposures. 484 00:26:01.660 --> 00:26:07.544 And you're also seeing a rotational move within markets and the stocks that really 485 00:26:07.544 --> 00:26:09.544 benefited from 486 00:26:09.544 --> 00:26:14.305 the sort of hyper-globalized world, you know, they're the ones that are 487 00:26:14.305 --> 00:26:16.305 potentially looking vulnerable now. 488 00:26:16.305 --> 00:26:17.828 So we have hit an inflection point. 489 00:26:18.289 --> 00:26:23.053 You know, we may be in a corrective phase for markets for some months now. 490 00:26:23.873 --> 00:26:28.497 But coming out of that, I suspect that, you know, the Chinese are going to 491 00:26:28.497 --> 00:26:30.497 stimulate more. 492 00:26:30.497 --> 00:26:34.062 The Europeans are already stimulating their economies to sort of offset the 493 00:26:34.062 --> 00:26:36.062 effect of tariffs and so forth. 494 00:26:36.062 --> 00:26:38.957 And also to address the problem of you know, sort of sluggish, very sluggish 495 00:26:38.957 --> 00:26:40.957 growth. 496 00:26:40.957 --> 00:26:42.957 Energy prices are coming down. 497 00:26:42.957 --> 00:26:43.658 That's actually quite constructive. 498 00:26:43.718 --> 00:26:49.340 So I think we will come out of this funk, you know, whatever, you know, however, 499 00:26:50.540 --> 00:26:52.040 you know, whatever Trump's rhetoric. 500 00:26:52.681 --> 00:26:55.601 And I think he will continue to fascinate you, I'm sure. 501 00:26:55.921 --> 00:27:00.983 He will keep you glued and channel hopping to make sure you get your daily dose of 502 00:27:00.983 --> 00:27:01.224 Trump. 503 00:27:01.224 --> 00:27:01.843 Oh, yes, please. 504 00:27:02.983 --> 00:27:04.924 And but we are. 505 00:27:05.476 --> 00:27:11.138 Sort of, you know, the hysteria of the level of uncertainty is going to reduce. 506 00:27:11.459 --> 00:27:13.579 Volatility is likely to reduce. 507 00:27:13.940 --> 00:27:16.661 We will have some tariff deals, I suspect. 508 00:27:17.721 --> 00:27:23.264 We've passed peak tariffs and the world will not come to an end. 509 00:27:23.464 --> 00:27:30.407 So it's time to maybe tentatively have a look at the ground because you're already 510 00:27:30.407 --> 00:27:32.407 sitting on the fence at the 511 00:27:32.407 --> 00:27:34.407 moment. 512 00:27:34.407 --> 00:27:36.407 Tentatively look at stepping off that fence. 513 00:27:36.407 --> 00:27:38.750 dipping your toe into the water, would you say that selectively, of course? 514 00:27:40.311 --> 00:27:45.093 Yeah, I mean, I think that you, you know, a lot of US assets are heavily oversold 515 00:27:45.093 --> 00:27:47.093 now. 516 00:27:47.093 --> 00:27:51.075 And so what we're seeing is we're seeing basically a sort of rebound from those 517 00:27:51.075 --> 00:27:53.075 oversold positions. 518 00:27:53.075 --> 00:27:57.638 And a lot of the moves we've seen have been driven by short term market 519 00:27:57.638 --> 00:27:59.638 operators. 520 00:27:59.638 --> 00:28:01.720 And, you know, that have been squeezed and wrongly positioned. 521 00:28:02.116 --> 00:28:04.798 Obviously, you know, often with high levels of leverage. 522 00:28:04.878 --> 00:28:07.819 So you get these weird market movements. 523 00:28:07.839 --> 00:28:11.521 So bond yields going up was obviously not what the resistance was saying. 524 00:28:13.463 --> 00:28:17.865 And you heard all about the sort of basis trade unraveling and so forth in bond 525 00:28:17.865 --> 00:28:17.885 markets. 526 00:28:18.245 --> 00:28:19.506 So I think that phase has gone. 527 00:28:19.546 --> 00:28:22.448 Markets have been, you know, positions have been cleaned out. 528 00:28:23.448 --> 00:28:29.792 And so it's now, you know, longer term investors are going to be looking at this 529 00:28:29.792 --> 00:28:31.792 and thinking, Well, we... 530 00:28:31.792 --> 00:28:32.634 probably got too much in the way of US exposure. 531 00:28:33.274 --> 00:28:34.595 So they're going to be selling rallies. 532 00:28:35.976 --> 00:28:39.078 And there will be rallies, pretty powerful rallies, to be seen. 533 00:28:40.319 --> 00:28:44.362 And, you know, but I suspect, basically, they won't be followed through. 534 00:28:45.062 --> 00:28:50.746 And then if you look at China and Europe, you know, by and large, a lot will depend 535 00:28:50.746 --> 00:28:52.746 on, you know, the level of stimulus, 536 00:28:52.746 --> 00:28:54.746 whether markets are prepared to look through it. 537 00:28:54.746 --> 00:28:58.752 And then, of course, obviously, there's considerable scope for sort of interest 538 00:28:58.752 --> 00:29:00.752 rates to come down further, not just. 539 00:29:00.752 --> 00:29:04.754 in the US, but the Chinese is in a position. 540 00:29:05.314 --> 00:29:06.894 ECB cut rates the other day. 541 00:29:06.934 --> 00:29:10.295 The Bank of England will probably cut rates next month when it meets. 542 00:29:10.735 --> 00:29:17.697 So you've got this sort of synchronized global reduction in short-term interest 543 00:29:17.697 --> 00:29:19.697 rates, which ultimately is going to underpin growth. 544 00:29:19.697 --> 00:29:21.697 So I think we come out of this. 545 00:29:21.697 --> 00:29:26.700 It just depends on basically what level of weakness we've got to actually sort of get 546 00:29:26.700 --> 00:29:28.700 through in the 547 00:29:28.700 --> 00:29:30.700 nearer term. 548 00:29:30.700 --> 00:29:32.700 Saunders with his soothing words. 549 00:29:32.700 --> 00:29:34.072 Philip Saunders is Director at the Investment Institute at 91 in 550 00:29:34.452 --> 00:29:41.417 London. The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay 551 00:29:41.417 --> 00:29:43.417 Williams and various contributors and do 552 00:29:43.417 --> 00:29:46.261 not reflect the policy, position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 553 00:29:46.581 --> 00:29:51.224 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 554 00:29:51.684 --> 00:29:58.631 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 555 00:29:58.631 --> 00:30:00.631 entity other than the speaker or the author. 556 00:30:00.631 --> 00:30:04.823 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 557 00:30:04.823 --> 00:30:06.823 change, revision, 558 00:30:06.823 --> 00:30:06.967 and rethinking at any time. 559 00:30:07.287 --> 00:30:09.692 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.