WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.412 --> 00:00:04.553
You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

2
00:00:05.073 --> 00:00:08.634
The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the five o'clock

3
00:00:08.634 --> 00:00:08.754
shadow.

4
00:00:08.854 --> 00:00:13.075
Usually it's Viv Govender and David
Shapiro, but David Shapiro is AWOL today,

5
00:00:13.115 --> 00:00:17.377
so Viv and I are going to soldier on and
set the world to rights.

6
00:00:17.378 --> 00:00:19.617
It's getting messy in the States, isn't
it, Viv?

7
00:00:19.637 --> 00:00:24.138
I mean, yesterday was quite astonishing
what happened around about this time,

8
00:00:24.138 --> 00:00:24.178
actually.

9
00:00:25.419 --> 00:00:32.109
Yeah, look, the basic thing was um The
rally that we saw after that,

10
00:00:32.350 --> 00:00:38.535
basically, what would have been a week or
two ago, one of the worst case scenarios

11
00:00:38.535 --> 00:00:40.535
in terms of outcomes for the tariffs.

12
00:00:40.535 --> 00:00:43.198
It just shows basically how confused,

13
00:00:43.199 --> 00:00:46.281
how kind of stressed the market is at the
moment.

14
00:00:46.301 --> 00:00:52.726
That even a reduction like what we saw
yesterday in terms of the implementation

15
00:00:52.726 --> 00:00:54.726
and so on

16
00:00:54.726 --> 00:00:57.009
was enough to estimate what is, I think,
one of the biggest rallies in history.

17
00:00:57.950 --> 00:01:00.112
You know, a single day rally, especially
from the low of the day.

18
00:01:00.512 --> 00:01:04.133
but the day started not that great but
ended incredibly high.

19
00:01:05.253 --> 00:01:06.714
Today we are not seeing the same kind of
thing.

20
00:01:06.974 --> 00:01:09.375
We are seeing definitely profit-taking.

21
00:01:09.555 --> 00:01:11.915
There's no other word for that.

22
00:01:13.056 --> 00:01:18.757
But also I think that at the moment, the
S&P right now is down 3%,

23
00:01:18.897 --> 00:01:22.398
which in normal times would be a
significantly negative day.

24
00:01:22.798 --> 00:01:28.720
But after what happened yesterday, it's
just like a small correction coming

25
00:01:28.720 --> 00:01:30.720
through, a small consolidation of
profit-taking coming through.

26
00:01:30.720 --> 00:01:36.352
I can't help feel that given the poorest
nature of the White House and this little

27
00:01:36.352 --> 00:01:38.352
clothes club they've

28
00:01:38.352 --> 00:01:42.915
got, there must have been several
individuals that made an absolute fortune

29
00:01:42.915 --> 00:01:44.915
on the way

30
00:01:44.915 --> 00:01:47.058
down and a massive fortune yesterday as
well.

31
00:01:47.078 --> 00:01:53.281
And I know, you know, it seems too
obvious, but often the things that are too

32
00:01:53.281 --> 00:01:55.281
obvious are indeed the case, Viv.

33
00:01:55.281 --> 00:01:58.704
This is actually, you could call it a
feature of a bug of the US system.

34
00:02:00.141 --> 00:02:03.023
I don't know about staff members, but
politicians definitely.

35
00:02:03.664 --> 00:02:10.129
Congressman Nancy Pelosi famously, if you
follow Nancy Pelosi's traits, you're going

36
00:02:10.129 --> 00:02:12.129
to be making a fortune.

37
00:02:12.129 --> 00:02:16.674
She outperforms the market significantly
because you often buy or rather her

38
00:02:16.674 --> 00:02:18.674
husband buys and sells stuff that

39
00:02:18.674 --> 00:02:23.640
seems to be quite closely correlated with
stuff that his wife should have known in

40
00:02:23.640 --> 00:02:25.640
Congress because of senior position.

41
00:02:25.640 --> 00:02:26.162
There is this weird thing in the U.S.

42
00:02:26.242 --> 00:02:27.924
where politicians have this ability.

43
00:02:28.344 --> 00:02:34.988
to trade uh you know amazing as it may
seem the i think there's a

44
00:02:35.048 --> 00:02:41.731
restriction on like you know uh on staff
members you know that's why your office

45
00:02:41.731 --> 00:02:43.731
like cabinet members etc having to sell
their uh you know

46
00:02:43.731 --> 00:02:48.775
assets but the politicians in the us have
this ability to basically go buy and sell

47
00:02:48.775 --> 00:02:50.775
stuff but here's the thing i mean uh trump

48
00:02:50.775 --> 00:02:53.678
announced it i think a few hours before
the actual thing by saying now is the time

49
00:02:53.678 --> 00:02:55.678
to buy it's

50
00:02:55.678 --> 00:02:57.040
possible that some of his monger people
basically got you know

51
00:02:58.513 --> 00:03:05.479
Tukulus was convinced by that and just
bought like I said he did announce

52
00:03:05.480 --> 00:03:12.425
it a few hours before he actually did the
announcement he didn't announce what he

53
00:03:12.425 --> 00:03:14.425
was going to do he just said this is a
great time to buy effectively

54
00:03:14.425 --> 00:03:18.630
and that might have been it's very
unusual, he can't keep himself to himself

55
00:03:18.630 --> 00:03:20.630
he can't keep his mouth shut something
pops into

56
00:03:20.630 --> 00:03:22.713
his head he just wants to talk, he wants
to tell people he wants to be the hero

57
00:03:23.054 --> 00:03:28.278
I mean yesterday after the rally he said
he said And I found it a little bit

58
00:03:28.278 --> 00:03:30.278
offensive, actually.

59
00:03:30.278 --> 00:03:32.461
He said the biggest stock market rally in
history.

60
00:03:32.761 --> 00:03:34.022
Firstly, that's incorrect.

61
00:03:34.783 --> 00:03:38.987
But, you know, everything that comes out
of his mouth is often incorrect.

62
00:03:39.447 --> 00:03:42.189
But he said, OK, biggest stock market
rally in history.

63
00:03:42.190 --> 00:03:43.530
And then he said, not bad, eh?

64
00:03:44.351 --> 00:03:51.297
I mean, he seems to have forgotten the
previous 10 days or so where he wiped it

65
00:03:51.297 --> 00:03:53.297
all out and

66
00:03:53.297 --> 00:03:55.297
then brought it back up again.

67
00:03:55.297 --> 00:03:57.297
It was just a corrective rally, for
goodness sake.

68
00:03:57.297 --> 00:03:59.297
I mean...

69
00:03:59.297 --> 00:04:01.297
Here we are down again about 1.7% for the
S&P.

70
00:04:01.297 --> 00:04:03.297
It's not over yet.

71
00:04:03.297 --> 00:04:04.027
I just can't make any sense of it anymore,
Viv.

72
00:04:04.387 --> 00:04:07.770
And I'm sure you as a portfolio manager
can't as well.

73
00:04:07.930 --> 00:04:14.576
You have to try and just sort of focus on
things like inflation coming down from

74
00:04:14.576 --> 00:04:16.576
2.8% to 2.4%

75
00:04:16.576 --> 00:04:16.958
during the month of March in the United
States of America.

76
00:04:16.998 --> 00:04:20.721
I'm wondering whether that's the last of
the low inflation prints that we see.

77
00:04:21.021 --> 00:04:22.062
I'm sure that's what you do.

78
00:04:22.182 --> 00:04:24.584
You're probably one of those people that
can put on blinkers.

79
00:04:24.864 --> 00:04:27.285
and just forget about the noisy stuff?

80
00:04:29.386 --> 00:04:35.849
I don't know, actually, because, like I
said, I mean, it was a few years back, you

81
00:04:35.849 --> 00:04:37.849
know, when we were having all those, you
know,

82
00:04:37.849 --> 00:04:41.611
a few years ago, remember, we had
everything was about the interest rate

83
00:04:41.611 --> 00:04:43.611
announcements, you know,

84
00:04:43.611 --> 00:04:45.153
what was the latest stimulus package from
the ECB or the Fed, et cetera.

85
00:04:45.253 --> 00:04:47.113
And it didn't really matter what company
news looks like.

86
00:04:47.114 --> 00:04:49.474
It didn't really matter what anything else
looked like.

87
00:04:49.494 --> 00:04:50.995
It was just all about the stimulus.

88
00:04:51.587 --> 00:04:54.888
The moment, unfortunately, is all about
whatever Trump is thinking of on the day.

89
00:04:55.568 --> 00:05:00.830
Because, you know, as much as you might
see a highest inflation number, normally

90
00:05:00.830 --> 00:05:02.830
that will bring markets down a few
percent.

91
00:05:02.830 --> 00:05:07.451
If Trump was to come out and says, I
better deal with everybody, and there's no

92
00:05:07.451 --> 00:05:09.451
more tariffs, and even China is going to
get, you know, no tariffs as well.

93
00:05:09.451 --> 00:05:12.013
Mark would rally so much, it would
basically overwhelm any negative news that

94
00:05:12.013 --> 00:05:12.172
we would see.

95
00:05:12.913 --> 00:05:16.134
And in coming to, like, you know, in terms
of, like, his approach to this,

96
00:05:16.714 --> 00:05:20.015
I don't think this time around he cares so
much about what the stock market does.

97
00:05:20.355 --> 00:05:21.095
He cares more about...

98
00:05:21.215 --> 00:05:27.680
the stock market is basically responding
to whatever he does if you know what i

99
00:05:27.680 --> 00:05:29.680
mean yeah i think he's kind of very well
think of it he had this massive

100
00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:33.986
downturn over the last couple you know
days or end of the last week especially

101
00:05:33.986 --> 00:05:35.986
and what does he do he goes on a

102
00:05:35.986 --> 00:05:39.090
golfing uh to a golf competition and
basically plays there and boasts about

103
00:05:39.090 --> 00:05:41.090
winning it i

104
00:05:41.090 --> 00:05:44.975
think nothing like you know tickles his
ego more than the world burning while he

105
00:05:44.975 --> 00:05:46.975
was playing golf you know what

106
00:05:46.975 --> 00:05:47.356
And that's the other thing.

107
00:05:47.396 --> 00:05:53.421
That's what led me to believe that there
might be some shenanigans going on, some

108
00:05:53.421 --> 00:05:55.421
naughtiness, some insider trading, in
other words,

109
00:05:55.421 --> 00:05:55.642
because he was so calm all the time.

110
00:05:55.883 --> 00:05:58.104
He was calm about the market falling.

111
00:05:58.124 --> 00:06:03.548
And he said, I don't watch the stock
market, famously, during the early stages

112
00:06:03.548 --> 00:06:05.548
of the route.

113
00:06:05.548 --> 00:06:05.890
And I said to myself, yes, you do.

114
00:06:06.410 --> 00:06:08.011
You watch it every single day.

115
00:06:08.052 --> 00:06:08.832
It's important to you.

116
00:06:09.192 --> 00:06:12.275
But the reason you're so calm is because
you're short the market, Mr.

117
00:06:12.335 --> 00:06:13.035
Trump.

118
00:06:13.143 --> 00:06:15.464
That was my first thought as a cynic.

119
00:06:16.204 --> 00:06:22.807
But then yesterday with the two-hour, you
know, great time to buy story ahead of the

120
00:06:22.807 --> 00:06:24.807
90-day pause.

121
00:06:24.807 --> 00:06:25.848
I mean, that was just outlandish to me.

122
00:06:26.729 --> 00:06:28.810
Ah, well, he'll never be found out.

123
00:06:28.811 --> 00:06:31.991
And if he was found out, he'd just sign
something.

124
00:06:32.831 --> 00:06:33.552
I'm not sure it's illegal.

125
00:06:33.752 --> 00:06:34.452
That's the thing.

126
00:06:34.512 --> 00:06:40.074
I am not sure that it's illegal because,
like I said, there is this well-known

127
00:06:40.074 --> 00:06:42.074
tradition in the U.S.

128
00:06:42.074 --> 00:06:44.074
of politicians trading.

129
00:06:44.074 --> 00:06:48.536
i think it would be legal if someone like
for instance uh you know the secretary uh

130
00:06:48.536 --> 00:06:50.536
treasury or something actually the
treasury secretary or you

131
00:06:50.536 --> 00:06:55.420
know an admin official traded but i'm not
so certain uh what the rules around

132
00:06:55.420 --> 00:06:57.420
virtual select politicians trading

133
00:06:57.420 --> 00:07:00.144
are because like i said i mean it's
famously known that you know uh both

134
00:07:00.164 --> 00:07:07.088
the democrats and republicans uh have some
of the world's best traders in congress

135
00:07:07.088 --> 00:07:09.088
and the senate you know if you look at the
performance of like like

136
00:07:09.088 --> 00:07:10.711
i said you know some of these guys
portfolios on both sides of the aisle

137
00:07:10.711 --> 00:07:11.050
these

138
00:07:11.331 --> 00:07:18.093
people would be the best traders in any
investment bank in the world and it's not

139
00:07:18.093 --> 00:07:20.093
because they're so smart it's because they
literally are using inside

140
00:07:20.093 --> 00:07:24.835
information there was cases of people
basically selling the market uh when code

141
00:07:24.835 --> 00:07:26.835
was breaking because they got briefed
about it ahead of time

142
00:07:26.835 --> 00:07:31.377
uh there's cases of uh people buying and
selling you know things like boeing and

143
00:07:31.377 --> 00:07:33.377
other you know other

144
00:07:33.377 --> 00:07:37.719
manufacturers because they know which
contract is being approved or not approved

145
00:07:37.719 --> 00:07:39.719
yeah uh so this is a this is a weird thing
about the us

146
00:07:39.719 --> 00:07:40.044
Trump would not be affected.

147
00:07:40.344 --> 00:07:42.586
I'm not so sure, but I don't think Trump
would be affected.

148
00:07:42.946 --> 00:07:46.008
I think if there was other people in his
administration that did it, they would be

149
00:07:46.008 --> 00:07:46.269
affected.

150
00:07:47.789 --> 00:07:48.489
Interesting stuff.

151
00:07:48.489 --> 00:07:49.750
We'll never find out, of course.

152
00:07:49.831 --> 00:07:50.891
It's a closed shop.

153
00:07:51.412 --> 00:07:57.676
I'm not sure you're right when you said
it's not illegal because it's a highly

154
00:07:57.676 --> 00:07:59.676
regulated industry in the United States,

155
00:07:59.676 --> 00:08:01.676
financial services.

156
00:08:01.676 --> 00:08:04.441
OK, it's been undone a little bit by
Trump, but the basic rules and regulations

157
00:08:04.441 --> 00:08:06.441
are there.

158
00:08:06.441 --> 00:08:07.903
And to profit from inside knowledge, I
can't.

159
00:08:08.123 --> 00:08:10.745
imagine that it's legal anywhere in the
world.

160
00:08:11.065 --> 00:08:11.906
Anyway, let's have a look at...

161
00:08:12.286 --> 00:08:14.427
Remember, the politicians write the rules
and regulations.

162
00:08:14.428 --> 00:08:15.228
That's the thing you must understand.

163
00:08:15.608 --> 00:08:20.972
The politicians write the rules and
regulations, and they have made how lax

164
00:08:20.972 --> 00:08:22.972
the trading rules are.

165
00:08:22.972 --> 00:08:24.972
All right.

166
00:08:24.972 --> 00:08:26.936
Well, that's something, as I said, we'll
never, ever find out, unless some really,

167
00:08:26.936 --> 00:08:28.936
really,

168
00:08:28.936 --> 00:08:32.359
really assiduous journalist gets his teeth
into it and won't let go,

169
00:08:33.220 --> 00:08:34.361
like a savage dog.

170
00:08:34.781 --> 00:08:35.962
Let's have a look at some prices.

171
00:08:36.402 --> 00:08:42.265
Actually, before we do, What I'd like to
ask you is, how have the Magnificent Seven

172
00:08:42.265 --> 00:08:44.265
stocks, the high-flying tech stocks,

173
00:08:44.265 --> 00:08:45.566
the ones that you favour, how have they
behaved?

174
00:08:45.786 --> 00:08:48.888
Have they behaved predictably or have they
surprised you?

175
00:08:49.868 --> 00:08:52.249
Look, I mean, Magnificent Seven have
definitely been down.

176
00:08:52.749 --> 00:08:59.492
Year to date, we have some of the worst
performing stocks on the market.

177
00:08:59.832 --> 00:09:05.574
And even if you look at, for instance, how
badly the overall market has done, they've

178
00:09:05.574 --> 00:09:07.574
definitely done worse.

179
00:09:07.574 --> 00:09:09.574
For instance, there's...

180
00:09:09.574 --> 00:09:14.363
a bet was put through you know the all-in
podcast those guys uh one of which is now

181
00:09:14.363 --> 00:09:16.363
a the head of ai and crypto on the trump

182
00:09:16.363 --> 00:09:21.247
administration yeah um one of them
basically put a bet in the start of the

183
00:09:21.247 --> 00:09:23.247
year on on basically two things firstly it

184
00:09:23.247 --> 00:09:23.948
was i think uh uh the

185
00:09:25.169 --> 00:09:32.153
kind of default swaps basically he thought
that uh credit default swaps would go up

186
00:09:32.153 --> 00:09:34.153
in value because you know a risk in the
market which turned out to be very well

187
00:09:34.153 --> 00:09:39.481
apparently made a 700 return on that and
the other bet he put down was that the

188
00:09:39.481 --> 00:09:41.481
Magnificent Seven would fall to below 30%
of the SP500,

189
00:09:41.481 --> 00:09:43.394
which it has done, showing that it's
basically below.

190
00:09:44.154 --> 00:09:45.856
where it was as a percentage of the
market.

191
00:09:45.857 --> 00:09:49.939
So even though the market's fallen, the
Magnificent Seven has fallen significantly

192
00:09:49.939 --> 00:09:51.939
more than that.

193
00:09:51.939 --> 00:09:53.939
Interesting.

194
00:09:53.939 --> 00:09:57.746
I suppose you benefit on the upside, and
they outperform, and on the downside, they

195
00:09:57.746 --> 00:09:59.746
underperform.

196
00:09:59.746 --> 00:10:00.408
So you've got to take the rough with the
smooth, Viv, which I know you will.

197
00:10:00.809 --> 00:10:01.809
Okay, markets now.

198
00:10:02.290 --> 00:10:07.214
Dollar Rand, 1950, got close to 20
yesterday, and then this morning when I

199
00:10:07.214 --> 00:10:07.515
woke up,

200
00:10:07.515 --> 00:10:10.937
it was 1925.

201
00:10:10.938 --> 00:10:11.698
So it's weakened again.

202
00:10:12.422 --> 00:10:18.006
British pound against the round is 25.28,
and the euro round is 21.79.

203
00:10:18.007 --> 00:10:23.910
It's the euro that has been taking the
round to the cleaners in the last couple

204
00:10:23.910 --> 00:10:25.910
of weeks, I must say.

205
00:10:25.910 --> 00:10:26.032
Euro dollar is now 1.1170.

206
00:10:26.392 --> 00:10:29.334
I mean, that's a euro that's 2% higher
against the greenback.

207
00:10:29.374 --> 00:10:35.438
British pound, 1.2960, and that's a pound
that's 1.1%

208
00:10:35.439 --> 00:10:36.779
better against the US dollar.

209
00:10:38.841 --> 00:10:40.482
Look at gold, for goodness sake.

210
00:10:43.783 --> 00:10:47.404
3,158, $143 an ounce higher, or 4.75%.

211
00:10:47.444 --> 00:10:48.404
Unbelievable.

212
00:10:48.524 --> 00:10:52.305
Platinum, it's still in three figures.

213
00:10:52.345 --> 00:10:58.147
It's 938, which is up 1.6%, and Palladian,
903,

214
00:10:58.847 --> 00:11:02.588
which is up 1%, up, but really just an
apologetic rally to me.

215
00:11:03.948 --> 00:11:10.190
Okay, let's have a look at some other
commodities now, because I know that

216
00:11:10.190 --> 00:11:12.190
copper and things like that, having had
a...

217
00:11:12.190 --> 00:11:14.190
Really, really torrid time.

218
00:11:14.190 --> 00:11:14.696
I've done relatively well.

219
00:11:15.016 --> 00:11:15.816
Oil's off again.

220
00:11:16.537 --> 00:11:19.798
West Texas is down a percent to 61.75.

221
00:11:19.799 --> 00:11:22.739
And Brent crude, 64.75.

222
00:11:22.759 --> 00:11:24.840
That's 1.1% weaker.

223
00:11:25.321 --> 00:11:26.561
Let me just refresh my screen.

224
00:11:26.601 --> 00:11:28.262
That's looking suspiciously quiet.

225
00:11:29.643 --> 00:11:30.343
Hold on.

226
00:11:30.723 --> 00:11:32.304
Yeah, I'm completely wrong.

227
00:11:32.804 --> 00:11:33.504
I thought it was.

228
00:11:34.285 --> 00:11:37.026
The West Texas price is down nearly 4%.

229
00:11:37.550 --> 00:11:44.116
to 59.91 and Brent crude 63.27 down 3.4
percent, natural gas down 7 percent,

230
00:11:44.156 --> 00:11:47.860
gasoline down 3.8 percent and so so it
goes on.

231
00:11:48.320 --> 00:11:54.606
The S&P 500 futures, eminently watchable,
it's updating furiously here,

232
00:11:55.126 --> 00:12:00.972
it's now down 3.2 percent to 5,317 that
one.

233
00:12:01.392 --> 00:12:07.751
The US 10-year treasury bond yield It's
4.35%, was below 4.30%.

234
00:12:08.131 --> 00:12:09.952
So also just ticking higher.

235
00:12:09.953 --> 00:12:14.593
The yield there was in the mid 4.40s over
the last couple of days.

236
00:12:15.133 --> 00:12:19.534
So that's also recovered somewhat, but
also worsened since the best levels this

237
00:12:19.534 --> 00:12:19.694
morning.

238
00:12:19.894 --> 00:12:22.475
You see Bitcoin all over the place.

239
00:12:22.655 --> 00:12:27.076
It was about 7-8% higher earlier on today.

240
00:12:27.477 --> 00:12:32.478
It's now up just under 5% to just under
81,000.

241
00:12:33.378 --> 00:12:34.258
That's about it, really.

242
00:12:35.499 --> 00:12:40.961
I want to have a look at some of the
movers on the JSC, which I'd normally get

243
00:12:40.961 --> 00:12:42.961
David to do,

244
00:12:42.961 --> 00:12:44.663
but I'm going to do it because there's
been some staggering moves.

245
00:12:45.863 --> 00:12:47.644
Let me just refresh that one as well.

246
00:12:49.045 --> 00:12:51.225
While I'm doing that, have you noticed the
volume of the JSC?

247
00:12:51.806 --> 00:12:54.127
The performance is quite frankly the
easiest job in the world today.

248
00:12:54.687 --> 00:12:56.768
There's only a couple of fallers in the
market at the moment.

249
00:12:57.388 --> 00:13:01.870
And the rise on that thing is basically,
you know, sub-1 year.

250
00:13:02.270 --> 00:13:08.813
12 percent effectively, Omni 11 percent
almost, you know, Goldfield 9 percent, DRD

251
00:13:08.813 --> 00:13:10.813
9 percent, you know,

252
00:13:10.813 --> 00:13:15.655
Anglo, South, 32, it's all these, you
know, miners, gold miners especially,

253
00:13:16.356 --> 00:13:23.218
Subania, you know, like I told you, but
the one thing I think is going to change

254
00:13:23.218 --> 00:13:25.218
probably is Sasok, which is up, you know,
almost 10 percent.

255
00:13:25.218 --> 00:13:27.920
And you think that's going to succumb to
the lower oil price, obviously, yeah.

256
00:13:28.601 --> 00:13:29.561
And the stronger round as well.

257
00:13:30.121 --> 00:13:31.442
Okay, let me have a look at this one.

258
00:13:32.538 --> 00:13:33.299
I'll give you mine.

259
00:13:33.519 --> 00:13:36.221
Alphamin, 17.4% higher.

260
00:13:37.182 --> 00:13:41.645
Sivani mentioned 11.4% to the Good
Harmony, 10.5% up.

261
00:13:42.085 --> 00:13:44.607
African Rainbow Minerals, 9.4% higher.

262
00:13:44.827 --> 00:13:47.669
On the downside, we had results out from
Life Healthcare today,

263
00:13:48.790 --> 00:13:55.374
but there's normally five of the big
stocks on the downside, and I've just been

264
00:13:55.374 --> 00:13:57.374
fiddling with my screen,

265
00:13:57.374 --> 00:14:00.658
and I suddenly realised there's only two
down, one of which is Life Healthcare,

266
00:14:00.658 --> 00:14:02.658
down 0.2%.

267
00:14:02.658 --> 00:14:04.658
percent.

268
00:14:04.658 --> 00:14:08.001
And if we have a look now at the indices,
I can't remember seeing a day like this,

269
00:14:08.001 --> 00:14:08.081
actually.

270
00:14:08.781 --> 00:14:14.203
I honestly can't remember seeing a day
where the percentages are so robust across

271
00:14:14.203 --> 00:14:16.203
the board.

272
00:14:16.203 --> 00:14:21.526
And I would imagine the auction is still
going on because I don't know if you've

273
00:14:21.526 --> 00:14:23.526
managed to catch the sort of volume going
through the

274
00:14:23.526 --> 00:14:24.067
JSC in the last few days.

275
00:14:24.328 --> 00:14:29.510
It's been 40 billion plus most of the
time, which is unheard of outside of

276
00:14:29.510 --> 00:14:31.510
futures closeout.

277
00:14:31.510 --> 00:14:33.510
And...

278
00:14:33.510 --> 00:14:37.093
index rejigging but anyway that's what
it's been i'd love to see what it was

279
00:14:37.093 --> 00:14:39.093
today but i don't have a facility i've got
the resources up eight and a

280
00:14:39.093 --> 00:14:44.016
quarter percent never seen that before
industrials 2.6 percent higher financials

281
00:14:44.016 --> 00:14:46.016
after a bad day a

282
00:14:46.016 --> 00:14:47.297
couple of days ago 4.2 percent up and

283
00:14:47.437 --> 00:14:54.420
what else we got the top 40 index a four
and a half percent winner to 79 067 and

284
00:14:54.420 --> 00:14:54.900
they

285
00:14:54.900 --> 00:14:58.882
all share itself 86 thousand and two uh
four and a quarter

286
00:15:00.882 --> 00:15:02.223
These are interesting times.

287
00:15:02.243 --> 00:15:05.664
I mean, I'd like them to be a little less
interesting in a couple of weeks time.

288
00:15:05.704 --> 00:15:07.565
Otherwise, we'll all be carried out with
this one.

289
00:15:08.125 --> 00:15:09.766
But do you see it happening?

290
00:15:09.786 --> 00:15:15.628
Do you see the 90 days, you know,
providing some providing some sort of

291
00:15:15.628 --> 00:15:17.628
solace to the market?

292
00:15:17.628 --> 00:15:21.230
Or do you just think it's going to carry
on and there'll be various pronouncements

293
00:15:21.230 --> 00:15:23.230
depending on the mood that Trump wakes up
with?

294
00:15:23.230 --> 00:15:23.686
90 days.

295
00:15:23.686 --> 00:15:26.630
90 days is pretty much the same amount of
time from the time he was elected to now.

296
00:15:26.690 --> 00:15:27.390
Do you know that?

297
00:15:27.411 --> 00:15:29.293
Yeah, it's a long time.

298
00:15:29.773 --> 00:15:31.355
From the inauguration to now.

299
00:15:31.575 --> 00:15:32.276
It's not that far off.

300
00:15:33.597 --> 00:15:36.480
So it's not even three months at the
moment.

301
00:15:36.620 --> 00:15:38.382
So it's under 90 days at the moment.

302
00:15:39.663 --> 00:15:46.010
So I do think that, you know, if you look
at what the next four years is going to

303
00:15:46.010 --> 00:15:46.230
hold for us.

304
00:15:46.510 --> 00:15:53.494
well like again what you're dealing with
is a is a nice and the motivations he has

305
00:15:53.494 --> 00:15:55.494
are not the motivations you will think he
has i'm not

306
00:15:55.494 --> 00:16:00.458
so sure he's all about money i think he's
basically likes the attention he likes the

307
00:16:00.458 --> 00:16:02.458
the power he likes to have

308
00:16:02.458 --> 00:16:04.601
the ability for when he does whatever he
does for like the big people

309
00:16:04.641 --> 00:16:11.444
out there to cover that you know kind of
like you know bow before the throat

310
00:16:11.444 --> 00:16:13.444
effectively and i think that's what is
driving this more

311
00:16:13.444 --> 00:16:17.367
than uh you know it was uh uh just you
know or he's trying to basically fool

312
00:16:17.367 --> 00:16:19.367
around the market he's

313
00:16:19.367 --> 00:16:21.449
supposed to get a few more zeros on his
background i do think this is this is a

314
00:16:21.449 --> 00:16:21.590
case where he

315
00:16:21.590 --> 00:16:28.152
really is enjoying with his power out
there and the next thing to understand is

316
00:16:28.152 --> 00:16:30.152
that there are actually people in his

317
00:16:30.152 --> 00:16:34.954
administration uh who are you know
considered to be trinkish but you know

318
00:16:34.954 --> 00:16:36.954
even crank some philosophy is

319
00:16:36.954 --> 00:16:41.097
worth looking at what their philosophy is
there is a belief that look if they can

320
00:16:41.097 --> 00:16:43.097
raise and they're talking about about 700

321
00:16:43.097 --> 00:16:46.059
billion dollars in terms of tariffs per
year If they can get that money coming in,

322
00:16:46.719 --> 00:16:53.401
that will give them the ability to go out
and drop the income tax for anyone making,

323
00:16:53.401 --> 00:16:55.401
I think, $150,000 a year to zero.

324
00:16:55.401 --> 00:16:56.063
And that's the thing that they've been
arguing for.

325
00:16:56.503 --> 00:16:57.263
Now, let me tell you something.

326
00:16:57.264 --> 00:16:57.983
If they can do this,

327
00:16:58.023 --> 00:17:04.646
if they can somehow raise $500-600 billion
and even drop the income tax of people

328
00:17:04.646 --> 00:17:05.047
making

329
00:17:05.047 --> 00:17:08.387
$100,000, maybe $150,000, $100,000 to
zero,

330
00:17:08.388 --> 00:17:14.490
you're looking at people who are going to
be basically petitioning for the third

331
00:17:14.490 --> 00:17:16.490
Trump administration.

332
00:17:16.490 --> 00:17:17.612
I'm not even joking about that.

333
00:17:17.772 --> 00:17:23.556
If he can do this, and I'm saying this is
the plan, this is the idea of the

334
00:17:23.556 --> 00:17:23.576
philosophy of the day.

335
00:17:23.916 --> 00:17:28.579
I don't think it will be possible, but I
think this is the philosophy he's doing.

336
00:17:29.040 --> 00:17:36.024
And that is the idea behind all this
stuff, at least from an economic point of

337
00:17:36.024 --> 00:17:36.565
view.

338
00:17:36.565 --> 00:17:39.087
Firstly, I think he also, like I said,
just likes the chaos,

339
00:17:39.587 --> 00:17:43.550
but there are people backing him that are
under this belief that they can get...

340
00:17:43.950 --> 00:17:46.852
a few hundred billion dollars, that's 500
to 700 billion dollars,

341
00:17:47.312 --> 00:17:54.136
and 500 to 700 billion dollars would be
equivalent to the income raised by the IRS

342
00:17:54.136 --> 00:17:56.136
of people making 150,000 to

343
00:17:56.136 --> 00:17:58.136
100,000 dollars a year.

344
00:17:58.136 --> 00:18:00.136
What a gesture that would be, Viv.

345
00:18:00.136 --> 00:18:02.136
What an incredible gesture, because he
always goes on.

346
00:18:02.136 --> 00:18:03.941
He knows a little bit of history because
it's plonked in front of him and he's told

347
00:18:03.941 --> 00:18:05.941
to read it.

348
00:18:05.941 --> 00:18:07.883
He said he documented when income tax,

349
00:18:08.403 --> 00:18:12.726
when the funding of the country was
suddenly put onto

350
00:18:13.694 --> 00:18:15.556
The man and woman in the street.

351
00:18:15.996 --> 00:18:17.637
And he said, this is wrong.

352
00:18:17.677 --> 00:18:18.678
So you're quite right.

353
00:18:18.698 --> 00:18:19.418
He's looking at it.

354
00:18:19.859 --> 00:18:21.039
I can't see it happening.

355
00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:26.683
The ramifications and the bureaucracy and
the untangling that would have to be done.

356
00:18:27.384 --> 00:18:29.665
I just think it's just too much, but it's
a lovely idea.

357
00:18:32.087 --> 00:18:32.787
That's the philosophy.

358
00:18:33.508 --> 00:18:34.448
And that is what he's aiming for.

359
00:18:34.709 --> 00:18:39.692
And so I think that from his point of
view, it's like, oh, I know the secret to

360
00:18:39.692 --> 00:18:41.692
how this is going to turn out.

361
00:18:41.692 --> 00:18:42.214
It's all going to turn out great if you're
not believing me.

362
00:18:42.738 --> 00:18:43.559
So what do you use?

363
00:18:43.560 --> 00:18:44.260
You're a panikin.

364
00:18:44.879 --> 00:18:45.980
Yes, a panikin, yes.

365
00:18:46.020 --> 00:18:46.841
Where did that come from?

366
00:18:47.721 --> 00:18:48.442
I have no idea.

367
00:18:50.503 --> 00:18:51.564
But it was funny as hell.

368
00:18:51.624 --> 00:18:52.505
But a panikin.

369
00:18:53.345 --> 00:18:56.387
And then he explains it as people that are
stupid and, like, cowardly or something.

370
00:18:57.568 --> 00:19:00.690
Stupid is another word that was used when
describing a panikin.

371
00:19:01.331 --> 00:19:02.131
A panikin, yeah.

372
00:19:03.052 --> 00:19:04.473
But I'd say this is philosophy.

373
00:19:04.613 --> 00:19:10.297
So I don't know if this wasn't enough to
get you derailed as this fear.

374
00:19:10.298 --> 00:19:11.558
But if...

375
00:19:12.358 --> 00:19:18.140
He's going to come out and he's going to
basically try and do this, I'm pretty

376
00:19:18.140 --> 00:19:20.140
sure, until something stops him.

377
00:19:20.140 --> 00:19:21.040
And the thing that stops him might be the
bond market.

378
00:19:21.881 --> 00:19:26.402
But the bond market, I don't know if
you've seen the behaviour, I know you

379
00:19:26.402 --> 00:19:28.402
follow it a lot, has been extremely weird,
right?

380
00:19:28.402 --> 00:19:32.904
Yeah, it's completely said, okay, all our
relationships that you got used to over

381
00:19:32.904 --> 00:19:34.904
the decades, out the window.

382
00:19:34.904 --> 00:19:38.945
Yeah, but you see the move, it went first
initially when the stuff came out, like,

383
00:19:38.945 --> 00:19:40.945
you know, a few days ago.

384
00:19:40.945 --> 00:19:41.386
It went down from about, say...

385
00:19:41.898 --> 00:19:48.780
30 so 1440 down to about under four yes
and then a couple days ago it started

386
00:19:48.780 --> 00:19:50.780
rallying again now it's back to

387
00:19:50.780 --> 00:19:55.502
about 14 uh so 4.3 basically 4.35 so
pretty much what it was before and again

388
00:19:55.502 --> 00:19:57.502
no this is again to

389
00:19:57.502 --> 00:19:59.502
understand this

390
00:19:59.502 --> 00:20:03.644
is also a belief that these people have
they say if they cut a percent of the us

391
00:20:04.144 --> 00:20:11.006
uh interest rate okay that is equivalent
to about 300 billion dollars a year in uh

392
00:20:11.006 --> 00:20:13.006
savings in terms of interest

393
00:20:13.006 --> 00:20:13.453
payments Yes, servicing debt, in other
words.

394
00:20:14.334 --> 00:20:20.223
Yeah, and again, if you cut the interest
rate for the US down to, like, say, from

395
00:20:20.223 --> 00:20:22.223
four to maybe three,

396
00:20:22.223 --> 00:20:22.867
which is not that far away from where it
was just a little while ago.

397
00:20:23.789 --> 00:20:24.489
Again, this is...

398
00:20:25.206 --> 00:20:31.990
all money that they are saving and could
theoretically pump back into these these

399
00:20:31.990 --> 00:20:33.990
these these these uh these lower income
people

400
00:20:33.990 --> 00:20:39.474
and look at like i said this kind of stuff
if it does do it i'm going to say this is

401
00:20:39.474 --> 00:20:41.474
one of those like just chess moves

402
00:20:41.474 --> 00:20:43.176
but if you want to see it and you see if
it does come through uh

403
00:20:43.177 --> 00:20:49.940
forget about the midterms he will you
would have a red sweep across the entire

404
00:20:49.940 --> 00:20:51.940
board next year if next year no american
below 150

405
00:20:51.940 --> 00:20:55.884
000 or even 100 000 paid income tax you
know $70,000, I think, is above the

406
00:20:55.884 --> 00:20:55.945
minimum wage,

407
00:20:56.305 --> 00:20:57.506
above the median income in the US.

408
00:20:57.966 --> 00:21:00.988
So if you have even like $100,000 is quite
a high number.

409
00:21:01.409 --> 00:21:07.514
So if you can cut a significant chunk of
the people below the median of their

410
00:21:07.514 --> 00:21:09.514
income tax,

411
00:21:09.514 --> 00:21:11.477
then I would almost certainly guarantee a
red wave.

412
00:21:12.158 --> 00:21:17.602
Again, assuming the world doesn't adjust
in a way, because this is not a case of

413
00:21:17.602 --> 00:21:19.602
you can just do what you want to do.

414
00:21:19.602 --> 00:21:21.602
The world won't react.

415
00:21:21.602 --> 00:21:22.186
Right now, we are seeing reactions from
the Chinese and from the Europeans.

416
00:21:23.290 --> 00:21:25.131
But, like I said, there is a plan.

417
00:21:25.471 --> 00:21:30.974
I don't know if it's going to be
successful, but it is a very brave, very

418
00:21:30.974 --> 00:21:32.974
audacious plan, if you see that.

419
00:21:32.974 --> 00:21:35.657
Yeah, you don't associate Trump with
plans, but maybe you're right this time.

420
00:21:36.137 --> 00:21:38.958
Maybe he said, this is what I want, and he
hands it over to experts.

421
00:21:38.998 --> 00:21:40.759
He's not prone to do that.

422
00:21:41.220 --> 00:21:42.420
But maybe this time he will.

423
00:21:42.761 --> 00:21:43.821
Maybe he's mellowing.

424
00:21:44.281 --> 00:21:45.242
No, don't be silly, Lindsay.

425
00:21:45.582 --> 00:21:47.363
That's a very, very stupid thing to say.

426
00:21:47.723 --> 00:21:49.664
Viv, thank you very much for your time
this evening.

427
00:21:50.385 --> 00:21:52.706
And we'll speak again next Thursday.

428
00:21:53.186 --> 00:21:55.447
Who knows where the S&P will be?

429
00:21:55.487 --> 00:21:56.808
Actually, let's have a little bet here.

430
00:21:57.168 --> 00:22:02.110
I've got my S&P futures here now, Vivian,
at 5,000.

431
00:22:03.170 --> 00:22:06.192
I've got the futures at 5,330.

432
00:22:06.193 --> 00:22:07.352
So you've got 5,000 what on the spot?

433
00:22:07.353 --> 00:22:09.113
On the spot, 5,260.

434
00:22:09.114 --> 00:22:11.814
5,260.

435
00:22:11.974 --> 00:22:14.976
Okay, where's it going to be in a week's
time?

436
00:22:15.076 --> 00:22:19.618
Closest wins, absolutely nothing except
for the pride of the program.

437
00:22:19.998 --> 00:22:20.698
I would think...

438
00:22:20.698 --> 00:22:27.280
basically by next week it would probably
be at least 100 points lower than this.

439
00:22:27.800 --> 00:22:29.200
Okay, so you're saying that.

440
00:22:29.680 --> 00:22:33.481
Yeah, I still think 5,000 is a pivotal
point.

441
00:22:33.482 --> 00:22:37.703
It was orbiting that just before Trump
said the pause and up we went yesterday.

442
00:22:37.763 --> 00:22:44.184
So 5,260, yeah, you say down to 5,060.

443
00:22:44.644 --> 00:22:48.265
I say we'll be 49.50.

444
00:22:48.266 --> 00:22:48.966
So there we go.

445
00:22:48.966 --> 00:22:49.866
We'll check next week.

446
00:22:50.326 --> 00:22:51.487
Viv, thank you very much indeed.

447
00:22:51.527 --> 00:22:54.468
Viv Govender is from Ransuisse in
Johannesburg.

448
00:22:54.469 --> 00:22:55.709
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

449
00:22:56.069 --> 00:23:03.013
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

450
00:23:03.013 --> 00:23:05.013
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

451
00:23:05.013 --> 00:23:07.556
position, or opinion of any other agency,
organisation, employer,

452
00:23:07.876 --> 00:23:11.718
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

453
00:23:12.198 --> 00:23:19.162
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

454
00:23:19.162 --> 00:23:21.162
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

455
00:23:21.162 --> 00:23:24.628
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

456
00:23:24.628 --> 00:23:24.728
change,

457
00:23:24.908 --> 00:23:27.471
revision and rethinking at any time.

458
00:23:27.771 --> 00:23:30.194
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.