WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the five o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skunk Lowe,

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who's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth
Old Oak in Cape Town.

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And when I say always on a Wednesday,
Skunk, we haven't spoken now for probably

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five,

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six weeks.

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Firstly, it was your fault.

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latterly it's been my fault and one of the
things that we sometimes say during quiet

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times before we go on air you say lindsey
let's

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just make this seven eight minutes because
there's really nothing to say that's not

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the case today skulk no fantastic

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speaking to you again lindsey likewise
yeah thanks for having me again it's it's

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it's been a big big

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not just week i mean it's been a a massive
massive 2025 thus far

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And the past 24 hours sort of just sort of
went from bad to worse.

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But we'll chat about that.

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Yeah, I don't know where to start, really.

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I mean, we could get into politics, but
I'll leave that for my blog.

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But the simple fact is that Trump has
marked his territory.

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The tariffs became effective today.

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China has retaliated.

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Markets have retaliated as well.

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And we'll talk about the markets in a
second.

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But we may as well get it out of the way,
first of all.

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Because while I was lying around with
nothing to do, watching telly and laptops

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and things,

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I did notice the gold went to 31.50.

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Now, you can correct me on the high it
went to, but I thought of you.

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And every time it made a new high, I
thought of Scalp Low.

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You must have been jumping through hoops.

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I was extremely happy.

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But, yeah, I sort of look at the past 24
hours and I still believe that the best is

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yet to come.

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And that is crazy to think.

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But, I mean, yeah, if we've seen what
happened, I mean,

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it's mind-boggling to watch this.

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Watch this play out.

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Now, I often get asked the question about,
you know,

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what is a black swan event?

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How can you sort of identify a black swan
event?

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And I think...

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That's the whole thing about a black swan
event.

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There's no indicator.

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It sort of happens and nobody's sort of
foreseen this happening.

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Did we know that we're going to have
tariffs?

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Hell yes.

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We always knew that 20th of January,
President Trump will start his second

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term.

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He's made it blatantly clear while he was
canvassing for votes that he's going

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to...

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That was...

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Look at tariffs, he's got to look at a few
other things, but tariffs was the main

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thing.

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So it's not a surprise, but I think
nobody, and when I say nobody,

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Lindsay, think to yourself.

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I mean, we've had the announcement last
week, and this caught everyone off guard.

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It wasn't just sort of this one told that
one, and that leaked to that media outlet

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or that media outlet,

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and people were sort of prepared.

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It's like our budget.

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We're going to see a VAT increase.

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It was sort of leaked out before it was
actually mentioned.

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This remained shut, hush, hush.

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And then they made the announcement, and
it sort of shocked the market.

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Yeah, because Trump says things, and then
it's sort of forgotten about.

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I can give you two very good examples of
him saying things that he's just blurted

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out.

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I won't tell you what they are.

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It's a classic example.

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He says, oh, he thinks something when he's
giving a speech, and then afterwards he

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thinks, yeah, that was a good idea,

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but it's not going to work like Gaza being
the Riviera.

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I mean, that's a classic one.

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What's he talking about?

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There's no Riviera being built in Gaza.

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It's all forgotten already.

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It's pathetic.

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So I think people didn't realise that he
was actually going to do it this time.

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And, of course, now he can't go back on
his word because he looks foolish.

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He looks weak, and there's nothing more.

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galling to President Donald J.

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Trump, the 47th president of the United
States of America,

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than being made to look foolish and that
he has given in.

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He won't do that.

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He'd rather be ousted midterm than be told
that he was wrong.

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There's two words in his vocabulary that
don't exist.

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One is sorry, and the other is wrong.

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You're 100% right.

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There's that saying that says, stop
digging when you're in a hole.

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And I sort of see him standing in this
hole, just getting deeper and deeper.

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I mean, China coming out and saying that,
well, they're going to retaliate that, I

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can't remember what it was originally, you
know,

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30 odd percent.

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And then it went to 60 percent.

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And then everyone just retaliated.

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And immediately, it's sort of before the
announcement actually land on Trump's

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desk,

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he retaliates immediately.

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104 percent.

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Tariffs fall for goods coming from China
towards the US.

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So let's just put this in perspective,
Lindsay, because this is actually just

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massive.

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We had this meeting this morning and one
of our, one of my colleagues,

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a Teams meeting, a Zoom meeting, one of my
colleagues,

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he sat there and the next thing he did was
make America great again.

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Cap, put it on his head and everybody
actually laughed.

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And one of our mates actually said, well,
one of the colleagues turned around and

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said, well, just do me a favour.

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Just turn that cap around and tell me
where that cap is made.

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Made in China.

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But, I mean, let's just take a harder
issue.

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The purebred.

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I think the purebred of purebred
companies, there's a few companies like

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Ford.

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But one of the purebred companies is
Apple.

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Apple is a U.S. thoroughbred company.

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Well, most of the, let's call it
moralists.

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200 million iPhones that they produce
every year,

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most of those iPhones are produced, is
produced in China. Yes, exactly.

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So now, they've already looked at the
release of the iPhone 17, and there's a

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few calculations being done,

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and this is just whisper numbers for now,
but they are really talking about, as we

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now sit here,

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that these iPhones will need to increase
40% in price.

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to still make it profitable.

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Now, that's crazy.

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That's just iPhone.

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So look at this thing.

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Now you ask your question, will the people
around the world, will people be, you

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know, not just, you know,

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able, will they be willing to pay 40% more
for...

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Of course they won't be.

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At some point, of course, there's always
iPhone loyalists, Apple loyalists.

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but they won't be able to absorb that sort
of price increase for what essentially is,

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it's a useful luxury,

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but a luxury nonetheless.

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There are other phones that do similar
things, not quite as good, in my opinion,

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as the iPhone.

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But anyway, he lies.

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This is the other point.

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He put out on Truth Social today when
China announced the 84% increased tariff.

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He said this is the best time to come to
America.

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You won't pay any tariffs like Apple are
doing.

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I don't see Apple doing it.

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Because, you know what,

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you've got these almost like labor camps
where the Apple workers stay and they

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produce the components for the iPhone and
then they assemble.

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You don't just get an iPhone, it pops out
of a machine and you bung it on a ship and

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it goes over.

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It has to be assembled.

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And it's quite a skillful job.

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And Chinese workers work six days a week
for wages that would be sneered at.

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in the United States of America.

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So let's say that Apple said, OK,
everything's being shipped out.

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It's going to cost us a couple of hundred
billion just to dismantle it and send it

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all over and all that sort of nonsense
that occurs when

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you change location of a giant factory.

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When you get to America, who's going to do
this job?

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Migrant workers are being kicked out.

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Americans, even if they were available to
do it,

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would do it for maybe four or five times
the price that the Chinese workers do it,

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and they're unionised.

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and they only work five days a week, it
would be a disaster.

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40% might be a similar figure.

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The cost would increase in America because
you've got some hick from Mississippi with

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a corn pipe and a pair of dungarees

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trying to put an iPhone together.

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Come on now, Scout.

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He's lying.

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And he's so lied about the Honda factory
in Indiana.

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Honda produces the Honda Civic original in
Indiana.

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Now they've got this brand new Honda Civic
coming through.

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And Trump says...

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They're building the biggest, most
sophisticated factory to produce the new

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Honda Civic.

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And they came out and they said, we never
said that.

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We haven't made that announcement.

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We're not doing it.

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He's lied again.

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It's extraordinary.

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My prediction?

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He will not last a full term.

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Not only are his powerful allies ganging
up against him now, behind his back, in

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little corners and discussing strategy,

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but he's galvanised the Democratic Party.

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They still haven't got a good leader.

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But if you watch Bernie Sanders tonight at
a CNN town hall, if you're up at that time

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in the morning, which I sometimes am,

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it'd be very interesting to see the mood
in the Democratic Party.

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I mean, even if even Colonel Bernie
Sanders can can can make a splash,

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that really tells you what the Republicans
are suffering at the moment.

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He won't last four years.

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I mean, you had Ted Cruz already yesterday
or two days ago made it verbally.

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100% clear that he's totally against.

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You can see more and more, you know,
these, and I get the feeling he just went

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and did this.

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I don't think he's properly consulted.

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And I think that the whole decision-making
process and structures will be changed.

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I've got no doubt in my mind.

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I foresee them getting together very, very
soon because the way this is heading,

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this is heading for a massive.

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massive massive massive crash I mean a lot
of people think the one thing enough we've

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been seeing

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when you look at the VIX VIX for the past
30 years only went above 50%

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three previous times.

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I'll use that.

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1998, we had the Asian crisis crash, the
Russian-Asian crisis crash.

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Yes.

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Then 2008, we had the world financial
crisis crash.

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That was the other time.

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Then more recently, 2020, COVID crash.

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We've seen the VIX go above 50%.

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As we sit here- The VIX is trading above
50% for the fourth time in 30 years.

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And the previous three times, every time
it's actually trading above these 50%

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levels,

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was most probably one of the best buying
opportunities.

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Why am I not feeling comfortable calling
this a buying opportunity with those type

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of indicators?

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Well, the mere fact that we don't know the
outcome yet.

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We don't know where this tariffs will be.

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be ended because we see China going back
and forth.

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We've had Spain saying earlier today that,
well, we're not going to,

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we're going to start talking to China
because it's a little bit closer and it

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might be more convenient.

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What we're seeing, Lindsay,

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is we're not only seeing the likes of
merging markets or the non-allies turning

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against

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Trump. We're now starting to see allies of
the U.S.

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turning against Trump.

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against Trump's tariffs.

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I'm starting to see actual Republicans now
starting to turn against Trump and his

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tariffs.

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So where will this end?

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Well, if they don't stop him or go sit
down and say,

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let's really start negotiating with
people.

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Because even if you're not to go back and
say, okay, guys, okay, I'll tell you what,

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we will be imposing a blanket.

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10% tariffs on all countries.

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00:12:36.860 --> 00:12:40.082
I still think that there will be some sort
of, or if it did that,

242
00:12:40.083 --> 00:12:46.665
there would have been some sort of win for
the US because most of the countries will

243
00:12:46.665 --> 00:12:48.665
be unhappy but still happy.

244
00:12:48.665 --> 00:12:51.968
They say in any negotiation process both
parties should always be a little bit

245
00:12:51.968 --> 00:12:53.968
unhappy.

246
00:12:53.968 --> 00:12:59.052
Now, if you impose a blanket 10%, I think
both parties will be a little bit unhappy,

247
00:12:59.052 --> 00:13:01.052
but I think Mr.

248
00:13:01.052 --> 00:13:03.052
Market will see it as a win.

249
00:13:03.052 --> 00:13:03.295
Currently, I don't see any winners.

250
00:13:03.375 --> 00:13:04.075
I'm sorry.

251
00:13:04.075 --> 00:13:09.279
So I'm not yet at the position to be
looking to buy the dips.

252
00:13:09.639 --> 00:13:10.880
No, I don't think so either.

253
00:13:11.040 --> 00:13:12.301
And you're quite right.

254
00:13:12.501 --> 00:13:19.406
And what has happened on that so-called
Liberation Day, many people called it

255
00:13:19.406 --> 00:13:21.406
Obliteration Day,

256
00:13:21.406 --> 00:13:23.729
he just sat down with a few people and
they said, we've got this press conference

257
00:13:23.729 --> 00:13:25.729
tonight.

258
00:13:25.729 --> 00:13:27.729
Let's get on with it.

259
00:13:27.729 --> 00:13:29.729
Let's get a really simple formula.

260
00:13:29.729 --> 00:13:31.729
So we take this number and that number,
divide it by two.

261
00:13:31.729 --> 00:13:33.729
That's what we're going to charge them.

262
00:13:33.729 --> 00:13:34.978
Now, just look at Madagascar, just off the
coast of your lovely country.

263
00:13:35.678 --> 00:13:37.760
And it's one of the poorest countries in
the world.

264
00:13:38.100 --> 00:13:39.361
It sells spices.

265
00:13:39.441 --> 00:13:42.084
This is very simplistic, but it sells
spices and vanilla.

266
00:13:42.904 --> 00:13:45.687
He whacked a 47% tariff on that.

267
00:13:46.387 --> 00:13:48.349
Now, what is that?

268
00:13:48.930 --> 00:13:53.654
He doesn't, they don't export anything to
America, apart from what I've just

269
00:13:53.654 --> 00:13:53.714
mentioned.

270
00:13:53.874 --> 00:13:58.638
They can't import anything very much
anyway, because they're too poor to do so.

271
00:13:59.118 --> 00:14:01.479
So they're not going to whack a tariff on
him.

272
00:14:01.539 --> 00:14:03.641
I mean, why Madagascar?

273
00:14:03.901 --> 00:14:10.244
Why not be like the European Union and
actually be considered and measured if you

274
00:14:10.244 --> 00:14:12.244
are going to retaliate,

275
00:14:12.244 --> 00:14:13.046
just like Ursula von der Leyen has done
today?

276
00:14:13.406 --> 00:14:17.808
And she's targeted certain industries and
been very reasonable about the tariffs.

277
00:14:17.828 --> 00:14:20.269
She's got to do something, otherwise she
looks weak as well.

278
00:14:20.990 --> 00:14:22.511
But Trump just doesn't care.

279
00:14:22.571 --> 00:14:23.571
He doesn't think.

280
00:14:24.152 --> 00:14:25.272
He goes and plays golf.

281
00:14:26.013 --> 00:14:27.373
Very badly, I understand.

282
00:14:30.556 --> 00:14:31.676
Well, I don't know.

283
00:14:32.557 --> 00:14:37.101
I still believe that the current approach
has been extremely aggressive.

284
00:14:37.221 --> 00:14:38.482
Now we know it's aggressive.

285
00:14:38.862 --> 00:14:43.926
But as we currently stand, I do think that
this is not going to be good for the U.S.

286
00:14:44.227 --> 00:14:46.468
And, you know, the train of thought, you
know, the theory,

287
00:14:47.089 --> 00:14:53.814
the main theory around what we've seen
over the past week was this is actually a

288
00:14:53.814 --> 00:14:54.274
big

289
00:14:54.274 --> 00:14:54.574
plot.

290
00:14:55.396 --> 00:14:58.078
And, you know, the plot was if they.

291
00:14:58.598 --> 00:15:05.282
come out really strong aggressive we're
not eventually going to end with this this

292
00:15:05.282 --> 00:15:07.282
this these tariffs that he's imposing or

293
00:15:07.282 --> 00:15:11.925
proposing i mean uh is we're gonna end
with something very softer but we're gonna

294
00:15:11.925 --> 00:15:13.925
then eventually see a a

295
00:15:13.925 --> 00:15:19.149
massive shock to the market we're gonna
start seeing investments moving out of

296
00:15:19.149 --> 00:15:21.149
risky assets a

297
00:15:21.149 --> 00:15:23.149
risk off scenario and

298
00:15:23.149 --> 00:15:27.854
as investors sell out of equities where do
they go to oh easy they usually go

299
00:15:28.034 --> 00:15:30.219
to But have they, Skulk?

300
00:15:31.635 --> 00:15:32.335
No.

301
00:15:32.335 --> 00:15:33.176
Well, I'll get you that now.

302
00:15:33.496 --> 00:15:40.041
Because remember, they've got more than $9
trillion worth of debt maturing this year,

303
00:15:40.302 --> 00:15:42.824
and they need to refinance this debt.

304
00:15:42.864 --> 00:15:48.689
Well, five years ago, when they floated
most of these bonds in COVID,

305
00:15:49.689 --> 00:15:53.412
we had the 10-year yield trading more or
less half a percentage.

306
00:15:53.693 --> 00:15:57.115
Now today, it's trading at 4.5%.

307
00:15:57.656 --> 00:15:59.537
And I know most of it is not the 10-year
yield.

308
00:15:59.557 --> 00:16:00.257
There was a lot of...

309
00:16:01.058 --> 00:16:07.202
investments been floated earlier, but $9
trillion, if they can create sort of a

310
00:16:07.202 --> 00:16:09.202
shocker to the market,

311
00:16:09.202 --> 00:16:14.867
get all the investors to move from risky
assets to US bonds, refinance the debt,

312
00:16:15.327 --> 00:16:16.488
all wealth ends well.

313
00:16:17.689 --> 00:16:20.410
And then the past 24 hours happened.

314
00:16:20.931 --> 00:16:25.473
Suddenly investors are running out of US
bonds.

315
00:16:25.474 --> 00:16:26.514
And so, the US bonds are running out of US
bonds.

316
00:16:27.278 --> 00:16:28.559
What does the saying in Afrikaans go?

317
00:16:28.560 --> 00:16:29.260
Slim fang say boss.

318
00:16:29.260 --> 00:16:32.320
What does that mean?

319
00:16:32.321 --> 00:16:37.882
It means you actually think you're smart,
while smart just, you know,

320
00:16:37.923 --> 00:16:42.464
the slim fang say boss, smart just go to
court as boss.

321
00:16:43.165 --> 00:16:45.606
It just says you're too smart for
yourself.

322
00:16:45.886 --> 00:16:49.967
And I really think they're way too smart
for themselves currently.

323
00:16:50.047 --> 00:16:56.070
I think this is potentially a movement
away from the US.

324
00:16:57.162 --> 00:17:03.405
not just in terms of assets, investments,
bonds, but also as reserve currency.

325
00:17:03.445 --> 00:17:10.048
We know the reserve currency has been
twiddling downwards from the 70-odd

326
00:17:10.048 --> 00:17:12.048
percent levels to the 60 percent levels.

327
00:17:12.048 --> 00:17:12.269
I think this could hurt the U.S.

328
00:17:13.009 --> 00:17:15.410
They can't afford to go into a recession.

329
00:17:15.971 --> 00:17:19.252
We had, what was it,

330
00:17:19.272 --> 00:17:23.274
a former treasury.

331
00:17:23.874 --> 00:17:24.914
secretary, what is he?

332
00:17:25.335 --> 00:17:26.035
Larry Summers.

333
00:17:26.335 --> 00:17:27.035
That's it.

334
00:17:27.035 --> 00:17:27.695
He came out.

335
00:17:27.695 --> 00:17:29.276
I don't know if you watched that interview
today.

336
00:17:29.277 --> 00:17:30.116
I did.

337
00:17:30.216 --> 00:17:32.677
I saw him being interviewed yesterday.

338
00:17:32.678 --> 00:17:34.077
He was scathing, wasn't he?

339
00:17:34.617 --> 00:17:35.517
Yesterday, sorry.

340
00:17:35.617 --> 00:17:40.319
He looked didn't look as strong as I
remember

341
00:17:41.219 --> 00:17:42.799
Larry Lawrence Summers.

342
00:17:44.320 --> 00:17:45.500
But he made it clear.

343
00:17:45.740 --> 00:17:52.342
He said well, looking at this he's got,
he's pretty much sure that these tariffs

344
00:17:52.342 --> 00:17:54.342
are going to...

345
00:17:54.342 --> 00:17:58.865
cause a recession and and and he foresee
that at least two million people will lose

346
00:17:58.865 --> 00:18:00.865
their jobs um

347
00:18:00.865 --> 00:18:06.488
now that's that's crazy so so let's let's
let's let's look at that and let's say

348
00:18:06.488 --> 00:18:08.488
that's going to be because a lot of
investment

349
00:18:08.488 --> 00:18:11.470
houses actually are also following this
route saying that well now the probability

350
00:18:11.470 --> 00:18:13.470
of a recession

351
00:18:13.470 --> 00:18:14.991
suddenly increased massively so so

352
00:18:15.412 --> 00:18:20.274
if they're right we're going to see a a
let's call it a drop in in

353
00:18:22.071 --> 00:18:22.771
economic growth.

354
00:18:23.311 --> 00:18:27.454
We're going to see a massive, massive
increase in unemployment.

355
00:18:28.215 --> 00:18:31.417
And now, I mean, we just had this example
of iPhone,

356
00:18:31.457 --> 00:18:37.501
but now adding to the mix that suddenly
we're not just sitting with inflation, we

357
00:18:37.501 --> 00:18:39.501
can sort of sit with a hyper,

358
00:18:39.501 --> 00:18:41.501
hyper inflation.

359
00:18:41.501 --> 00:18:44.826
Now that, I mean, you and I have been
having this, it's called a debate because

360
00:18:44.826 --> 00:18:46.826
we've agreed since day one,

361
00:18:46.826 --> 00:18:47.188
we're going to see stagflation.

362
00:18:47.208 --> 00:18:50.830
So the probability, you know, for
stagflation sort of

363
00:18:50.950 --> 00:18:54.252
increased in my view over the past uh 48

364
00:18:54.833 --> 00:19:01.677
72 hours increased a hell of a lot so
state flash in my view is sort of and the

365
00:19:01.677 --> 00:19:02.098
gold

366
00:19:02.098 --> 00:19:08.162
price today is telling us that gold price
up three percent is telling us well they

367
00:19:08.162 --> 00:19:10.162
they see you know state inflation being
written all over this

368
00:19:10.162 --> 00:19:11.444
okay just a very very brief comment

369
00:19:11.504 --> 00:19:18.369
on tariffs and the history of tariffs in
1922 it started uh people don't quite

370
00:19:18.369 --> 00:19:20.369
realize what what went on there but

371
00:19:20.369 --> 00:19:22.652
as truman says you There's nothing new in
this world, only the history you don't

372
00:19:22.652 --> 00:19:22.972
know.

373
00:19:22.972 --> 00:19:24.494
So if you don't know this history, listen
now.

374
00:19:24.854 --> 00:19:31.219
The Fordney-McCumber Tariff Act of 1922,
America raised, it's called a tariff bill,

375
00:19:31.219 --> 00:19:31.359
really.

376
00:19:31.720 --> 00:19:37.625
And they raised tariffs to 40% on stuff
being brought in to

377
00:19:38.165 --> 00:19:40.127
America. Americans were clever, though.

378
00:19:40.128 --> 00:19:43.369
Then they offered very affordable loans to
European countries.

379
00:19:43.609 --> 00:19:45.011
But eventually Europe caught on.

380
00:19:45.571 --> 00:19:49.174
And France, having had a 45% tariff,
caught on.

381
00:19:49.214 --> 00:19:56.198
tariff on u.s automobiles uh whacked it up
to 100 spain raised its tariffs on

382
00:19:56.198 --> 00:19:58.198
american goods by 40

383
00:19:58.198 --> 00:20:02.481
percent and so it went on germany did the
same they and italy raised their tariffs

384
00:20:02.481 --> 00:20:04.481
on wheat sorry the american

385
00:20:04.481 --> 00:20:07.744
agricultural businesses farms in other
words lost 300 million dollars and that

386
00:20:07.744 --> 00:20:09.744
was a lot of money in the

387
00:20:09.744 --> 00:20:14.648
1920s so this went on then we had the
great crash 1930 what did america do they

388
00:20:14.648 --> 00:20:16.648
signed another

389
00:20:16.648 --> 00:20:22.536
tariff bill which was smoot hawley Now,
Smoot-Hawley, of course, coming on the

390
00:20:22.536 --> 00:20:24.536
back of the Great Depression,

391
00:20:24.536 --> 00:20:29.546
and in the middle of the Great Depression,
in fact, and the crash of 1929, was

392
00:20:29.546 --> 00:20:31.546
exactly the sort of thing you shouldn't
do.

393
00:20:31.546 --> 00:20:34.674
And it was because of the farmers and the
manufacturers of certain equipment.

394
00:20:35.850 --> 00:20:36.951
asked Hoover to do it.

395
00:20:36.991 --> 00:20:41.993
So Hoover and the other two chaps, Smoot
and Hawley, got together and said, right,

396
00:20:41.993 --> 00:20:43.993
they signed it.

397
00:20:43.993 --> 00:20:46.916
Between 1930 and 1934, world trade tumbled
by 66%.

398
00:20:47.596 --> 00:20:50.358
Now, the backdrop is, of course, the Great
Depression.

399
00:20:50.698 --> 00:20:52.319
So that could never happen today.

400
00:20:52.339 --> 00:20:55.040
A robust world economy wouldn't allow it.

401
00:20:55.261 --> 00:20:57.462
But the point is, it doesn't help.

402
00:20:57.742 --> 00:21:04.646
And if you look at any tariff initiative
over the centuries, over the decades, it

403
00:21:04.646 --> 00:21:06.646
doesn't work,

404
00:21:06.646 --> 00:21:08.646
Skalk.

405
00:21:08.646 --> 00:21:10.646
It only causes disaster.

406
00:21:10.646 --> 00:21:12.646
And we've got disaster written all over
Wall Street.

407
00:21:12.646 --> 00:21:14.072
Yeah, desperate times, desperate measures.

408
00:21:14.513 --> 00:21:18.574
They're sitting in a very, very difficult
position.

409
00:21:19.194 --> 00:21:24.535
As I mentioned, Trump, you know, 1.0,
didn't sit with such a deficit,

410
00:21:24.575 --> 00:21:26.196
didn't sit with such.

411
00:21:26.197 --> 00:21:30.877
Yes, they had quite a bit of debt, but it
wasn't to the extent that they currently.

412
00:21:31.077 --> 00:21:34.158
They need to start looking at reducing
these debts.

413
00:21:34.318 --> 00:21:35.139
these deficits.

414
00:21:36.360 --> 00:21:40.583
Yeah, and tariffs was it.

415
00:21:40.844 --> 00:21:45.087
I think the US are sitting between a rock
and a very, very hard place.

416
00:21:46.468 --> 00:21:50.371
I think refinancing the state is going to
be very difficult.

417
00:21:50.812 --> 00:21:56.076
Unfortunately, this has been very, very
bad for Japan, because

418
00:21:56.457 --> 00:21:58.078
Japan, we know the story about Japan.

419
00:21:58.158 --> 00:22:02.662
Last year, Japan always had sort of a
fixed, not sort of, they had a fixed

420
00:22:02.662 --> 00:22:04.662
interest rate.

421
00:22:04.662 --> 00:22:09.341
And with inflation over the past few
years, we need to start using inflation.

422
00:22:10.122 --> 00:22:12.763
We need to start using interest rates,
increasing interest rates.

423
00:22:12.764 --> 00:22:15.285
And we start seeing it increasing
slightly.

424
00:22:15.305 --> 00:22:20.868
We know the forecast is still that the
Bank of Japan will be increasing rates

425
00:22:20.868 --> 00:22:22.868
going forward.

426
00:22:22.868 --> 00:22:26.651
But this is actually, I'm sorry for Japan
now,

427
00:22:26.671 --> 00:22:32.094
because as we sit here, let's call it a
quarter.

428
00:22:32.430 --> 00:22:33.130
of the U.S.

429
00:22:33.130 --> 00:22:37.274
debt are held by non-U.S.

430
00:22:37.354 --> 00:22:38.054
countries.

431
00:22:38.395 --> 00:22:40.337
So it's quite a large, large portion.

432
00:22:41.378 --> 00:22:43.820
If you did the largest holder of U.S.

433
00:22:43.880 --> 00:22:46.462
debt is Japan.

434
00:22:46.542 --> 00:22:49.145
They hold just more than $1 trillion worth
of...

435
00:22:49.185 --> 00:22:50.105
They're getting whacked.

436
00:22:51.527 --> 00:22:53.749
Massively, massive, massive, massive.

437
00:22:54.009 --> 00:22:56.651
Second largest is China.

438
00:22:57.232 --> 00:22:58.853
They've got about, let's call it 400
billion.

439
00:22:59.313 --> 00:23:00.013
But...

440
00:23:01.403 --> 00:23:07.609
I wouldn't be surprised if this major
sell-off that we've seen over the past 12

441
00:23:07.609 --> 00:23:09.609
to 13 hours

442
00:23:09.609 --> 00:23:11.609
has been China.

443
00:23:11.609 --> 00:23:13.609
China is saying, well, that's fine.

444
00:23:13.609 --> 00:23:17.337
We're going to use this 400 billion kitty
that we've got.

445
00:23:17.338 --> 00:23:23.442
And we're going to start putting some
pain, serious pain on the bonds.

446
00:23:23.443 --> 00:23:26.965
Because then if they refinance, I mean,
it's going to cost the U.S.

447
00:23:27.005 --> 00:23:27.705
economy.

448
00:23:27.950 --> 00:23:34.833
an arm and a leg to refinance at four and
a half five or even higher levels but yeah

449
00:23:34.833 --> 00:23:36.833
that's it's interesting

450
00:23:36.833 --> 00:23:41.596
interesting times for sure certainly let's
have a look at some interesting numbers

451
00:23:41.596 --> 00:23:43.596
today the rand yes all-time record lows
against the dollar

452
00:23:43.596 --> 00:23:44.357
pains me to say so dollar

453
00:23:44.417 --> 00:23:50.800
rand 1984 british pound against the rand
2635 euro rand is

454
00:23:50.960 --> 00:23:55.222
2194 oh my goodness so let's call it 22.

455
00:23:55.658 --> 00:23:57.639
Eurodollar 110.63.

456
00:23:57.640 --> 00:24:02.461
The dollar is falling, tumbling, and the
euro doing extremely well.

457
00:24:03.801 --> 00:24:05.362
Big move today, I have to say.

458
00:24:05.962 --> 00:24:09.324
The gold price, 3,086.

459
00:24:09.904 --> 00:24:11.705
$71 higher.

460
00:24:11.706 --> 00:24:16.567
I haven't got a fancy screen like yours,
but mine says $71 or 2.4% higher.

461
00:24:17.027 --> 00:24:18.548
Platinum doing nothing.

462
00:24:18.888 --> 00:24:20.788
9.17, barely changed.

463
00:24:21.069 --> 00:24:22.889
And Palladium doing nothing.

464
00:24:23.510 --> 00:24:24.330
Nothing happening there.

465
00:24:24.570 --> 00:24:31.175
barely changed 8.92 dollars per ounce if
we go to the rest of the commodities the

466
00:24:31.175 --> 00:24:33.175
one that is very

467
00:24:33.175 --> 00:24:38.041
interesting which i picked last year but i
was four months too early and that was the

468
00:24:38.041 --> 00:24:40.041
demise of the oil price uh brent

469
00:24:40.041 --> 00:24:43.845
crude oil 60.29 which is down four percent
skull glow uh west

470
00:24:43.865 --> 00:24:50.479
texas crude 56 you called that one yeah i
know i did yeah did i make any money out

471
00:24:50.479 --> 00:24:52.479
of it You know the answer.

472
00:24:52.479 --> 00:24:57.085
$57.05 per barrel for West Texas crude,
down 4.3%.

473
00:24:57.905 --> 00:24:58.926
And so it goes on.

474
00:24:59.006 --> 00:25:00.027
What other ones have we got?

475
00:25:00.207 --> 00:25:02.710
Steel and coal all getting walloped.

476
00:25:03.891 --> 00:25:07.294
Iron ore down 2.75%.

477
00:25:07.434 --> 00:25:09.756
Okay, let's have a look at some other
numbers now.

478
00:25:10.476 --> 00:25:11.878
And a toss a coin.

479
00:25:12.678 --> 00:25:15.261
I'll say heads up, tails down.

480
00:25:16.422 --> 00:25:17.122
Okay.

481
00:25:17.122 --> 00:25:23.085
tails tails down i'll say s&p 500 futures
no wrong up again up 0.2 percent to

482
00:25:23.105 --> 00:25:30.068
5031 there's 5000 level i think closing
below there on two or three sessions i

483
00:25:30.068 --> 00:25:32.068
think will be the the

484
00:25:32.068 --> 00:25:35.770
key to the future of this market at the
moment it's hovering it's orbiting 5000

485
00:25:35.770 --> 00:25:37.770
skunk us

486
00:25:37.770 --> 00:25:42.893
10-year treasury bond yield which we've
been focusing on 4.432 percent which you

487
00:25:42.893 --> 00:25:44.893
couldn't have imagined three

488
00:25:44.893 --> 00:25:49.892
months ago um bitcoin 77102, what's the
South African tenure,

489
00:25:49.912 --> 00:25:50.612
Skyle?

490
00:25:50.693 --> 00:25:54.378
For some reason it's not on my screen,
because it's obviously under pressure.

491
00:25:55.518 --> 00:25:56.458
Oh, massive, massive.

492
00:25:56.718 --> 00:26:00.499
Remember, we went into 2025 with the
trading below 9%.

493
00:26:02.600 --> 00:26:06.961
And here we're sitting today, it's 11.37%,
11.37% as we sit here.

494
00:26:06.962 --> 00:26:11.883
So there's been a massive, massive
movement in our long bond yields.

495
00:26:11.923 --> 00:26:13.703
And, well, it can't be good.

496
00:26:13.883 --> 00:26:14.744
It can't be good at all.

497
00:26:15.424 --> 00:26:16.124
No, it can't be.

498
00:26:16.544 --> 00:26:21.265
Bitcoin is 77,070, so about to break below
77,000.

499
00:26:21.666 --> 00:26:22.986
It's a near 2% move.

500
00:26:23.326 --> 00:26:24.026
To the downside.

501
00:26:24.026 --> 00:26:25.607
What about the JSC indices, Skulk?

502
00:26:25.627 --> 00:26:28.289
I know the financials today looked
horrible.

503
00:26:30.050 --> 00:26:31.831
Yeah, with the RAND, it did what it did.

504
00:26:33.792 --> 00:26:37.934
It's sort of a general sell-off in banks
overall across the world.

505
00:26:37.974 --> 00:26:43.717
But yeah, like you mentioned, the JSC
financials, they actually ended the day

506
00:26:43.717 --> 00:26:45.717
just shy of 5%,

507
00:26:45.717 --> 00:26:45.918
down 4.63%.

508
00:26:46.079 --> 00:26:46.939
Let's go to JSC AllShare.

509
00:26:46.959 --> 00:26:51.582
82,486 points.

510
00:26:51.622 --> 00:26:52.342
That is down 2%.

511
00:26:52.442 --> 00:26:53.563
2.1%.

512
00:26:54.543 --> 00:26:58.726
Top 40, 75,600 and down just over 2%

513
00:26:59.147 --> 00:27:03.429
resources with a little help from gold and

514
00:27:03.930 --> 00:27:09.614
I think there were some of the platinum
counters as well, but precious metals in

515
00:27:09.614 --> 00:27:11.614
general definitely helped the resource
index.

516
00:27:11.614 --> 00:27:12.416
Up 2.4% in industrials.

517
00:27:12.936 --> 00:27:16.919
Down 2.31%. Look at the turnover.

518
00:27:17.159 --> 00:27:22.462
I mean, Lindsay, yesterday we had close to
46% billion day.

519
00:27:23.763 --> 00:27:25.784
Previous day, we had a $45 billion day.

520
00:27:25.864 --> 00:27:28.665
Previous day, before that, $44 billion
today.

521
00:27:28.945 --> 00:27:30.926
Today, another $38 billion.

522
00:27:30.966 --> 00:27:36.628
So massive volume being moved through the
market.

523
00:27:36.688 --> 00:27:43.551
One can argue that there's been some
massive sellers just get the hell

524
00:27:43.691 --> 00:27:47.293
out of any risky assets, but somebody's
buying it.

525
00:27:47.313 --> 00:27:50.694
So that's major, major market.

526
00:27:50.814 --> 00:27:57.536
to market movements as well as major size
going through the jsc individual stocks i

527
00:27:57.536 --> 00:27:59.536
don't know what assura is but i assume
it's something

528
00:27:59.536 --> 00:28:04.298
that digs things out the ground but anyway
it's up 9.4 pan african resources 8.3

529
00:28:04.298 --> 00:28:06.298
percent higher

530
00:28:06.298 --> 00:28:11.640
uh sorry 6.3 percent higher anglo gold
ashanti 5.6 up harmony up five and a half

531
00:28:11.640 --> 00:28:13.640
nearly and gold fields up three and a
third

532
00:28:13.640 --> 00:28:15.640
downside led

533
00:28:15.640 --> 00:28:19.522
down by the blue bank standard bank 10.1
weaker ned bank

534
00:28:20.526 --> 00:28:21.407
8.6% down.

535
00:28:21.907 --> 00:28:24.990
Old Mutual down 8.4%.

536
00:28:24.991 --> 00:28:27.711
Tungela down 8%.

537
00:28:28.552 --> 00:28:29.353
These are numbers.

538
00:28:29.373 --> 00:28:33.916
I mean, I've been through the crash of 87
and 2008 and everything like that.

539
00:28:34.296 --> 00:28:35.717
But this is very different, Skull.

540
00:28:36.037 --> 00:28:37.278
Very, very different indeed.

541
00:28:37.538 --> 00:28:44.463
This looks like it's got legs and it's not
just an event-driven one-off or two or

542
00:28:44.463 --> 00:28:46.463
three-month event where it

543
00:28:46.463 --> 00:28:48.463
just bounces back and we forget about it.

544
00:28:48.463 --> 00:28:50.463
This looks much, much more serious to me.

545
00:28:50.463 --> 00:28:51.852
To me, this is, you're right, and why?

546
00:28:52.372 --> 00:28:53.072
Why?

547
00:28:53.092 --> 00:28:59.096
Because when we've seen these type of
movements, you know, last time when we had

548
00:28:59.096 --> 00:29:01.096
the VIX and COVID trading at,

549
00:29:01.096 --> 00:29:01.558
it's called over 50% levels,

550
00:29:01.818 --> 00:29:07.382
the one thing that the media started sort
of murmuring in that period was,

551
00:29:07.842 --> 00:29:10.044
what type of recovery will we see?

552
00:29:10.124 --> 00:29:12.926
Will it be a V-shaped type of recovery?

553
00:29:13.246 --> 00:29:19.250
Will it be a U-shape or maybe a W-shape or
some alphabetical shape?

554
00:29:19.878 --> 00:29:26.684
type of recovery well to date we still
haven't had any any let's go to major

555
00:29:26.684 --> 00:29:28.684
investment i was talking about

556
00:29:28.684 --> 00:29:33.990
any form of recovery but i mean i've been
having bloomberg running non-stop down and

557
00:29:33.990 --> 00:29:35.990
the one thing that i keep

558
00:29:35.990 --> 00:29:39.575
on hearing is as you know are we going to
see the the second leg down are we going

559
00:29:39.575 --> 00:29:39.875
to see a

560
00:29:39.875 --> 00:29:42.297
third or even a fourth leg down and when
when

561
00:29:42.777 --> 00:29:48.062
these type of big investment houses not
talking about a what type of recovery but

562
00:29:48.326 --> 00:29:49.927
How many legs down we're going to see?

563
00:29:50.648 --> 00:29:52.449
Hey, man, you're right.

564
00:29:52.689 --> 00:29:55.711
I haven't seen these type of movements.

565
00:29:55.951 --> 00:29:57.772
I mean, you touched on the

566
00:29:58.553 --> 00:30:04.537
1930s, and let's hope we're not seeing a
history repeating itself of the

567
00:30:05.718 --> 00:30:07.639
1920s, 1930s, because that was a horrible,
horrible period.

568
00:30:08.059 --> 00:30:08.759
For now,

569
00:30:08.780 --> 00:30:15.164
I would say my advice is if you're looking
to try and buy the dips,

570
00:30:15.504 --> 00:30:16.725
be very, very careful.

571
00:30:17.186 --> 00:30:17.886
I see.

572
00:30:17.946 --> 00:30:22.368
and foresee quite a few falling knives
going around this type of market.

573
00:30:22.768 --> 00:30:28.791
This is the type of market where you need
to be just calm, collected, and if you're

574
00:30:28.791 --> 00:30:30.791
buying, by all means,

575
00:30:30.791 --> 00:30:32.791
buy for the longer term.

576
00:30:32.791 --> 00:30:33.593
But if you're buying to trade, be very
careful.

577
00:30:34.053 --> 00:30:34.753
Indeed.

578
00:30:35.334 --> 00:30:41.057
Bottom pickers often become cotton
pickers, as one chap that I used to work

579
00:30:41.057 --> 00:30:43.057
with would say.

580
00:30:43.057 --> 00:30:43.818
So, Skulk, it's so nice to speak to you
again.

581
00:30:44.098 --> 00:30:46.719
I really already am looking forward to
next Wednesday.

582
00:30:46.739 --> 00:30:51.620
Who knows what happens in the interim
seven days, but whatever it is, it's going

583
00:30:51.620 --> 00:30:53.620
to be interesting.

584
00:30:53.620 --> 00:30:54.001
And I know that you'll cover it
beautifully as always.

585
00:30:54.041 --> 00:30:57.882
Scott Glow is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

586
00:30:58.202 --> 00:30:59.682
And that was the five o'clock shadow.

587
00:31:00.102 --> 00:31:07.064
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

588
00:31:07.064 --> 00:31:09.064
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

589
00:31:09.064 --> 00:31:13.726
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation, employer or company

590
00:31:13.726 --> 00:31:15.726
associated with the project.

591
00:31:15.726 --> 00:31:15.752
with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

592
00:31:16.232 --> 00:31:23.197
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

593
00:31:23.197 --> 00:31:25.197
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

594
00:31:25.197 --> 00:31:29.382
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

595
00:31:29.382 --> 00:31:31.382
change, revision,

596
00:31:31.382 --> 00:31:31.524
and rethinking at any time.

597
00:31:31.824 --> 00:31:34.246
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.