WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.392 --> 00:00:05.576 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.576 --> 00:00:08.758 JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. 3 00:00:08.978 --> 00:00:14.021 And as always on a Thursday, I speak to Viv Govender from Ransuisse in 4 00:00:14.021 --> 00:00:16.021 Johannesburg. 5 00:00:16.021 --> 00:00:18.021 No David Shapiro at the moment. 6 00:00:18.021 --> 00:00:20.021 He might join us in a minute. 7 00:00:20.021 --> 00:00:22.021 Well, we'll see. 8 00:00:22.021 --> 00:00:24.021 But Viv, I want to talk about tech earnings in the United States. 9 00:00:24.021 --> 00:00:26.021 We had some bad earnings. 10 00:00:26.021 --> 00:00:29.472 They weren't bad, but they were less good, if you like, as the market expected. 11 00:00:29.692 --> 00:00:30.533 from Alphabet. 12 00:00:31.013 --> 00:00:32.154 What do you attribute this to? 13 00:00:32.274 --> 00:00:37.739 Is it because they're spending too much on research and development on artificial 14 00:00:37.739 --> 00:00:39.739 intelligence? 15 00:00:39.739 --> 00:00:41.082 Well, I mean, we're talking about 75 billion. 16 00:00:41.662 --> 00:00:44.064 Microsoft is talking 80 billion in Azure. 17 00:00:44.284 --> 00:00:47.647 I think it's the same kind of number of 75 billion or so for Meta. 18 00:00:48.568 --> 00:00:54.833 It's pretty much known this is the kind of money you need to spend to be a part of 19 00:00:54.833 --> 00:00:56.833 this AI game, despite the stuff we've seen from DeepSeek, 20 00:00:56.833 --> 00:00:58.016 you know, the Chinese model that was supposedly trained for... 21 00:00:58.336 --> 00:01:05.259 six million dollars or so which wasn't really the kids it's it's it's a they're 22 00:01:05.259 --> 00:01:07.259 taking one item from deep seek and converting it to 23 00:01:07.259 --> 00:01:11.982 the entire bill for a place like amazon or a place like you know apple or you know in 24 00:01:11.982 --> 00:01:13.982 this case alphabet uh and that's not 25 00:01:13.982 --> 00:01:18.125 a fair comparison but that being said i i do think the market is to some extent a 26 00:01:18.125 --> 00:01:20.125 bit nervous about some of 27 00:01:20.125 --> 00:01:24.668 these uh ai expenditures this is by far the largest infrastructure spend of 28 00:01:24.668 --> 00:01:26.668 anything anywhere in history 29 00:01:26.668 --> 00:01:31.445 uh bigger than for instance those u.s space program bigger than building the you 30 00:01:31.445 --> 00:01:33.445 know u.s power grid or the highway system 31 00:01:33.445 --> 00:01:38.710 uh you know on a per year basis this is by far the biggest spend and even one of 32 00:01:38.710 --> 00:01:40.710 these companies like microsoft is spending more in a given year 33 00:01:40.710 --> 00:01:46.135 than was taken to go to space in any given year so yeah it is a huge amount of risk 34 00:01:46.135 --> 00:01:48.135 that being said alphabets results themselves 35 00:01:48.135 --> 00:01:48.997 we're not looking that terrible uh you know if you look at for 36 00:01:49.017 --> 00:01:55.710 instance there what's happening in youtube etc it still looks reasonably good And if 37 00:01:55.710 --> 00:01:57.710 you compare that with YouTube to 38 00:01:57.710 --> 00:01:59.873 Netflix, which came out results, the market tended to like that. 39 00:02:00.794 --> 00:02:04.737 I mean, you could argue that in terms of like eyeballs, in terms of the business 40 00:02:04.737 --> 00:02:04.936 model, 41 00:02:05.537 --> 00:02:10.021 YouTube actually has a better business model and bigger exposure than Netflix 42 00:02:10.021 --> 00:02:10.060 does. 43 00:02:10.981 --> 00:02:13.183 More people spend more time on YouTube than do on Netflix. 44 00:02:13.663 --> 00:02:19.548 And unlike Netflix, which has to go and pay up front for its content, YouTube only 45 00:02:19.548 --> 00:02:21.548 pays for the people that actually make content that people want to watch. 46 00:02:21.548 --> 00:02:22.393 Okay, just one question. 47 00:02:22.433 --> 00:02:26.796 Do you think that people, and I say people, I mean the companies, have the 48 00:02:26.796 --> 00:02:28.796 fear of missing out? 49 00:02:28.796 --> 00:02:31.518 In other words, they have to spend tens of billions in order to keep up in case they 50 00:02:31.518 --> 00:02:33.518 fall behind? 51 00:02:33.518 --> 00:02:36.841 Or do you think these vast amounts of money, in anyone's language, is justified? 52 00:02:37.442 --> 00:02:43.906 Look, I mean, the price here is, I mean, people are not, I remember a couple of 53 00:02:43.906 --> 00:02:45.906 years ago, Vladimir Putin, you know, 54 00:02:45.906 --> 00:02:48.088 said that the country that controls AI controls the future. 55 00:02:48.736 --> 00:02:54.981 and that is literally what you're paying for here uh you are you're playing for 56 00:02:54.981 --> 00:02:56.981 literally humanity's uh future 57 00:02:56.981 --> 00:03:01.727 uh the country that gets to ai of course uh like artificial you know intelligence 58 00:03:01.727 --> 00:03:03.727 or artificial data whatever you call it um 59 00:03:03.727 --> 00:03:06.671 that would have an advantage that is going to be almost insurmountable okay uh 60 00:03:06.671 --> 00:03:12.996 and how does it compare to basically spending money on like you know search or 61 00:03:12.996 --> 00:03:14.996 spending money on like you know um 62 00:03:14.996 --> 00:03:17.860 video or whatever it may be uh this is really something that that's just 63 00:03:17.860 --> 00:03:17.979 spectacular 64 00:03:18.208 --> 00:03:24.972 and what uh people like last year of last year were talking about the fact that oh 65 00:03:24.972 --> 00:03:26.972 um you know it was these models are hitting a 66 00:03:26.972 --> 00:03:31.996 peak there's there's a uh a wall in terms of a capability uh and some people still 67 00:03:31.996 --> 00:03:32.175 believe that 68 00:03:32.175 --> 00:03:35.858 to be true but if you looked at the last two months or so uh there's 69 00:03:35.958 --> 00:03:42.201 there's a famous uh recent example and it's in the new york times about a thing 70 00:03:42.201 --> 00:03:44.201 called humanity's last exam 71 00:03:44.201 --> 00:03:47.104 so some people were saying that ai is getting so good so quickly that we 72 00:03:47.284 --> 00:03:54.226 aren't able to evaluate how good it is anymore because we can't ask the questions 73 00:03:54.226 --> 00:03:56.226 because we're too dumb to ask questions they're going to test it to its ability so 74 00:03:56.226 --> 00:03:58.226 they 75 00:03:58.226 --> 00:04:01.128 basically got some of the world's experts physicists biologists chemists you know uh 76 00:04:01.128 --> 00:04:03.128 literally people whatever it may be and developed an exam that 77 00:04:03.128 --> 00:04:08.110 they thought was humanity's like you know hardest exam ever and like no human can 78 00:04:08.110 --> 00:04:10.110 score anything on this exam you'd have to be maybe a specialist 79 00:04:10.110 --> 00:04:12.431 might score one or two of the physics questions right they wouldn't have any 80 00:04:12.431 --> 00:04:14.431 chance on the biology questions and 81 00:04:14.431 --> 00:04:16.752 about two weeks ago the best ai system was scoring around about five percent 82 00:04:18.396 --> 00:04:23.158 Last week, the best AI system scored 20 plus percent. 83 00:04:23.358 --> 00:04:28.880 But isn't that making, there's the whole argument, and it's a very, very corny 84 00:04:28.880 --> 00:04:30.880 argument. 85 00:04:30.880 --> 00:04:32.880 It's making you more lazy. 86 00:04:32.880 --> 00:04:35.523 But on the other hand, someone like David Shapiro, who's not with us today, would 87 00:04:35.523 --> 00:04:37.523 say, actually, no, it's making you think more. 88 00:04:37.523 --> 00:04:38.984 It's making you more aware of reality. 89 00:04:39.505 --> 00:04:40.745 Where do you stand on this one? 90 00:04:41.005 --> 00:04:43.586 I'm with the early camp. 91 00:04:43.626 --> 00:04:46.528 In other words, I believe that it is making you more lazy. 92 00:04:46.608 --> 00:04:47.408 And I'll tell you why. 93 00:04:47.808 --> 00:04:53.110 is because I get messages from my son, and it's not the same son of a year ago. 94 00:04:53.630 --> 00:04:56.691 He's sending me messages with words that he would never normally use. 95 00:04:56.951 --> 00:05:00.532 He said the word agonizing the other day, and I know he's never used that before. 96 00:05:00.792 --> 00:05:03.813 It's because he said, how do I send this message to my dad? 97 00:05:05.194 --> 00:05:08.435 I want to tell him this, this, this, and this, and it comes up with something. 98 00:05:08.535 --> 00:05:10.455 I know it's AI generated. 99 00:05:10.895 --> 00:05:16.197 I'm a little bit skeptical still, even though I know in the future it will be the 100 00:05:16.197 --> 00:05:16.357 future. 101 00:05:18.025 --> 00:05:19.486 Look, I mean, here's a couple of things. 102 00:05:20.887 --> 00:05:24.188 Models are improving so quickly that, like I said, 103 00:05:24.388 --> 00:05:31.252 the wall definitely does not exist anymore because the models are improving at a rate 104 00:05:31.252 --> 00:05:33.252 that's better than we thought they would be 105 00:05:33.252 --> 00:05:35.252 going at. 106 00:05:35.252 --> 00:05:37.252 And not just improving in terms of ability, improving in terms of cost. 107 00:05:37.252 --> 00:05:37.696 DeepSeek, like I said, exaggerates how cheap it is, 108 00:05:37.696 --> 00:05:43.179 but it's definitely cheaper than comparable models were at least a couple 109 00:05:43.179 --> 00:05:43.358 of weeks ago. 110 00:05:43.358 --> 00:05:45.220 When I say a couple of weeks, I'm just like it's a couple of years. 111 00:05:46.400 --> 00:05:47.621 So that's the thing, dude. 112 00:05:47.701 --> 00:05:54.685 do note that the next thing is that you know as a as a teaching device uh students 113 00:05:54.685 --> 00:05:56.685 are have been shown to 114 00:05:56.685 --> 00:06:01.568 have huge huge improvements in ability uh if they are taught by ai systems because 115 00:06:01.568 --> 00:06:03.568 the ai system is infinitely patient 116 00:06:03.568 --> 00:06:04.510 able to go over answers you know multiple times uh 117 00:06:04.510 --> 00:06:11.414 and so as a teaching device and not just for like students at high school i've seen 118 00:06:11.414 --> 00:06:13.414 like evidence that you know uh physicists 119 00:06:13.414 --> 00:06:17.357 are we talking like people at phd plus level you know it was like senior 120 00:06:17.357 --> 00:06:19.357 researchers out there 121 00:06:19.357 --> 00:06:24.568 uh when you want to study an area of physics that's not quite the area but 122 00:06:24.568 --> 00:06:26.568 close enough to the area so you're talking at a very expert level we'll go to 123 00:06:26.568 --> 00:06:31.150 ai and ask you questions these models are able to teach you at the highest level 124 00:06:31.150 --> 00:06:33.150 that beyond what you 125 00:06:33.150 --> 00:06:38.473 get at a master's course let me say at the top university in just about any field in 126 00:06:38.473 --> 00:06:40.473 the world okay uh so 127 00:06:40.473 --> 00:06:45.496 yes it can make you lazier but if you were self-motivated you now have the ability to 128 00:06:45.496 --> 00:06:47.496 learn anything you want to learn uh being taught by 129 00:06:47.496 --> 00:06:52.339 what is equivalent to a a world-class expert uh you know who's infinitely 130 00:06:52.339 --> 00:06:54.339 patient and so we're able to do 131 00:06:54.339 --> 00:06:58.381 it whenever you want to do it so you can be lazy or you can basically take 132 00:06:58.381 --> 00:07:00.381 advantage of it uh to become accepted is this a good 133 00:07:00.381 --> 00:07:02.683 thing for the for the corporate world is it a good thing for the 134 00:07:02.743 --> 00:07:09.726 the world outside the corporate world as well the socio-economic world is it is it 135 00:07:09.726 --> 00:07:11.726 beneficial that people can 136 00:07:11.726 --> 00:07:16.729 now become so so clever and if they've got the best ai app on their phone or on their 137 00:07:16.729 --> 00:07:18.729 laptop or 138 00:07:18.729 --> 00:07:20.871 whatever uh they can do these things do you not think that it's starting to become 139 00:07:21.192 --> 00:07:24.174 slightly dystopian look i think that uh i 140 00:07:24.354 --> 00:07:31.279 i personally uh there's a thing called p doom to the probability of doom 141 00:07:31.279 --> 00:07:33.279 effectively the world ending you know what i mean 142 00:07:33.279 --> 00:07:35.279 yes and my 143 00:07:35.279 --> 00:07:39.524 p doom is not zero uh i i says and and in fact not only is my pd not zero if you 144 00:07:39.524 --> 00:07:39.604 look at ai 145 00:07:39.604 --> 00:07:46.489 experts around the world and look at the guys that are optimistic right they have 146 00:07:46.489 --> 00:07:48.489 they have an average p doom that means 147 00:07:48.489 --> 00:07:53.830 this thing destroys the world at about 10 and these are the optimistic ones right 148 00:07:53.830 --> 00:07:55.830 the pessimistic ones have 149 00:07:55.830 --> 00:08:00.815 the chance of this thing destroying the world like 99.9999 you know what i mean 150 00:08:00.815 --> 00:08:02.815 there's there's people out there who have studied this thing 151 00:08:02.815 --> 00:08:07.759 for years who don't just think this is you know a danger they think that developing 152 00:08:07.759 --> 00:08:09.759 it is a guarantee that it 153 00:08:09.759 --> 00:08:11.202 ends everything uh uh so there 154 00:08:11.242 --> 00:08:15.905 is there is definitely that dystopia uh but until that happens until we see that 155 00:08:15.905 --> 00:08:16.165 happen 156 00:08:16.309 --> 00:08:22.735 there's going to be other dangers you mentioned the fact of job losses you 157 00:08:22.735 --> 00:08:24.735 mentioned the fact of you know people you know being kind of 158 00:08:24.735 --> 00:08:30.321 getting lazy and stuff may be there's to get into depth here and i don't want to 159 00:08:30.321 --> 00:08:32.322 get too technical but there's three levels of training 160 00:08:32.322 --> 00:08:36.847 the stuff that you talk to think about when you talk about gpt right gpt4 you 161 00:08:36.847 --> 00:08:38.847 think of the first two levels there's a third level that came out in the last 162 00:08:38.847 --> 00:08:43.653 little while and that level is basically reinforcement learning where you have a 163 00:08:43.653 --> 00:08:45.653 set outcome like where you can have a definable outcome Yeah. 164 00:08:45.653 --> 00:08:45.674 And that's what these new reasoning models are about. 165 00:08:45.714 --> 00:08:52.178 So people think, oh, this is just a stochastic palette where it just reflects 166 00:08:52.178 --> 00:08:54.178 what's already being taught to it by some people's writing or whatever. 167 00:08:54.178 --> 00:08:56.178 That's the old school stuff. 168 00:08:56.178 --> 00:08:58.178 The old school, I mean, a few months ago. 169 00:08:58.178 --> 00:08:59.162 The newer stuff, basically, these reasoning models are using another level 170 00:08:59.162 --> 00:08:59.202 beyond that, 171 00:08:59.202 --> 00:09:03.544 which is basically a read for the bloody based on actual real world examples. 172 00:09:03.845 --> 00:09:07.707 And if you think about what is things that are actually easily definable answers, 173 00:09:08.047 --> 00:09:11.329 like you don't know if a painting is a good or bad painting just upfront. 174 00:09:11.953 --> 00:09:14.516 One thing you do know is a bad thing is how many Twitter followers do you have? 175 00:09:15.156 --> 00:09:17.258 Or how much money do you make? 176 00:09:17.398 --> 00:09:22.462 Or are you able to basically convince people to buy this product and not 177 00:09:22.462 --> 00:09:24.462 advertise to them? 178 00:09:24.462 --> 00:09:24.824 And there's a thing called Character AI. 179 00:09:24.985 --> 00:09:26.206 I don't know if you've heard of that. 180 00:09:26.866 --> 00:09:32.031 It's an AI program that basically you can download it where you can go talk to AI 181 00:09:32.031 --> 00:09:34.031 personas. 182 00:09:34.031 --> 00:09:37.135 The average period of time that people spend, the session they spend on this 183 00:09:37.135 --> 00:09:39.135 thing, is two hours. 184 00:09:39.135 --> 00:09:39.377 Two hours periods. 185 00:09:39.877 --> 00:09:46.541 when last you talked to somebody besides me for two hours uh lindsey i don't think 186 00:09:46.541 --> 00:09:48.541 i've ever spoken to anyone for two hours in my whole 187 00:09:48.541 --> 00:09:53.446 life she got a cat that comes in occasionally a stray cat and it sits on my 188 00:09:53.446 --> 00:09:55.446 lap and i talk to it while i'm watching television 189 00:09:55.446 --> 00:09:55.547 or reading a book or whatever and 190 00:09:55.547 --> 00:10:02.471 that's maximum 25 minutes two hours no viv it's beyond the play average average two 191 00:10:02.491 --> 00:10:08.135 hours so probably there's people doing three four five hours after that average 192 00:10:08.135 --> 00:10:10.135 the average time on these two hours 193 00:10:10.135 --> 00:10:11.766 And what I'm saying is that it's not so much, oh yeah, it's impressive. 194 00:10:11.766 --> 00:10:18.192 This thing is a machine that's basically designed to go after and hack anything 195 00:10:18.192 --> 00:10:20.192 that's definable. 196 00:10:20.192 --> 00:10:20.695 What's more definable than the amount of hours that you can spend on something? 197 00:10:20.995 --> 00:10:26.440 And so this thing is actually being trained to make sure you spend more and 198 00:10:26.440 --> 00:10:28.440 more time talking to it. 199 00:10:28.440 --> 00:10:29.343 It's almost like, you know, the world's... 200 00:10:29.483 --> 00:10:36.447 ultimately what do they get out of that i mean they're getting advertising revenue 201 00:10:36.447 --> 00:10:38.447 are they getting kudos what what is what do they get out of 202 00:10:38.447 --> 00:10:43.351 someone talking to it for two hours i mean yeah but it's just it's like a 203 00:10:43.351 --> 00:10:45.351 subscription service or whatever and this is the most recent 204 00:10:45.351 --> 00:10:50.334 stuff this is the order stuff and you're going to be doing the same things i mean 205 00:10:50.334 --> 00:10:52.334 it's going to get uh um again and not to be like you know 206 00:10:52.334 --> 00:10:57.398 too risque there's a website called holy france right and they basically have a 207 00:10:57.398 --> 00:10:59.398 situation service like that these ladies or men in some cases are 208 00:10:59.398 --> 00:11:01.398 using the same kind of thing 209 00:11:01.398 --> 00:11:05.825 to to basically hack their their clients and again the same process is working here 210 00:11:05.825 --> 00:11:07.825 where this thing is 211 00:11:07.825 --> 00:11:12.771 talking to you as if it's that particular person and these people are basically 212 00:11:12.771 --> 00:11:14.771 spending you know tons of money just to talk to 213 00:11:14.771 --> 00:11:18.395 a robot let's basically figure out a way to hack into their minds to get to spend 214 00:11:18.395 --> 00:11:18.495 more time and 215 00:11:18.495 --> 00:11:20.978 more money i don't want my mind to be hacked into quite 216 00:11:20.978 --> 00:11:27.223 honestly my mind is is fine on its own i mean it could be better but i don't want 217 00:11:27.223 --> 00:11:29.223 it to be hacked into viv 218 00:11:29.223 --> 00:11:33.357 I'm just going to give you a couple of things here from a completely different 219 00:11:33.357 --> 00:11:35.357 world, which is things that get dug out of the ground. 220 00:11:35.357 --> 00:11:40.018 Anglo-American Platinum today came out with its trading statement for the 12 221 00:11:40.018 --> 00:11:42.018 months ended December, 222 00:11:42.018 --> 00:11:44.140 and the share price fell by, or has fallen, by 4%. 223 00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:50.781 Then I look at Kumba Iron Ore, part of the Anglo stable, came out also with an 224 00:11:50.781 --> 00:11:50.961 update, 225 00:11:51.102 --> 00:11:52.442 down 3.6%. 226 00:11:52.622 --> 00:11:56.003 But Anglo-American PLC production report for the fourth quarter. 227 00:11:56.511 --> 00:11:57.352 ended December. 228 00:11:57.752 --> 00:12:00.533 Okay, it's a quarterly one rather than a yearly one. 229 00:12:00.974 --> 00:12:02.835 Up five and a quarter percent. 230 00:12:03.575 --> 00:12:08.498 I know it's not really your field, but you have to, I'm afraid I'm going to insist 231 00:12:08.498 --> 00:12:10.498 that you comment upon it. 232 00:12:10.498 --> 00:12:16.202 What do you make of South African companies or companies that are listed on 233 00:12:16.202 --> 00:12:18.202 the JSC that are digging things out of the ground? 234 00:12:18.202 --> 00:12:20.202 They're all over the place at the moment. 235 00:12:20.202 --> 00:12:24.467 Yeah, look, I do think that firstly, platinum is a sector you don't want to be 236 00:12:24.467 --> 00:12:26.467 in at the moment. 237 00:12:26.467 --> 00:12:32.538 i mean you see what's happening uh with waymo uh really a driverless taxi 238 00:12:32.538 --> 00:12:34.538 operating in wild in the 239 00:12:34.538 --> 00:12:39.521 us yeah uh taking market share away from places like uber and and uh i think in it 240 00:12:39.521 --> 00:12:41.521 went from zero to like 22 241 00:12:41.521 --> 00:12:46.023 percent market share taking about 12 away from uber and about 10 or so away from 242 00:12:46.023 --> 00:12:48.023 lift in a period of a year in san francisco uh 243 00:12:48.023 --> 00:12:54.247 that is an electric vehicle all these all these driverless vehicles are going to be 244 00:12:54.247 --> 00:12:56.247 electric vehicles without uh it was the internal combustion engine we're going to 245 00:12:56.247 --> 00:12:58.247 see a 246 00:12:58.247 --> 00:13:00.932 huge drop in demand for uh you know platinum uh it's almost i always talk 247 00:13:00.932 --> 00:13:02.932 about it think of it as almost expensive for oil 248 00:13:02.932 --> 00:13:07.919 uh it's it's that's what it's used for primarily and china is going to be just as 249 00:13:07.919 --> 00:13:09.919 bad if not worse uh in terms of 250 00:13:09.919 --> 00:13:15.105 uh what's happening there so platinum i would say is is an issue with ino we know 251 00:13:15.105 --> 00:13:17.105 what's happening with regards to the iron or sector at the moment 252 00:13:17.105 --> 00:13:21.811 uh you know especially in china but uh though it goes with regards to uh you know 253 00:13:21.811 --> 00:13:21.850 anglos 254 00:13:22.171 --> 00:13:29.136 uh copper is going to be hugely in demand i think copper is a big thing going 255 00:13:29.136 --> 00:13:31.136 forward uh these electric vehicles about copper if 256 00:13:31.136 --> 00:13:36.141 they get the robots going which i i am a lot more confident in the next two or 257 00:13:36.141 --> 00:13:38.141 three years we're going to see the robots uh you know coming into play in a bigger 258 00:13:38.141 --> 00:13:40.141 way than you 259 00:13:40.141 --> 00:13:41.264 would think uh that requires copper and of course if you've taken all these electric 260 00:13:41.264 --> 00:13:41.304 vehicles 261 00:13:41.304 --> 00:13:47.448 electric robots to do their thing electricity generation transmission all 262 00:13:47.448 --> 00:13:49.448 those factors are going to come into play and again copper is 263 00:13:49.448 --> 00:13:51.011 going to be hugely in demand uh you know it was also uh you know 264 00:13:51.291 --> 00:13:58.276 looking at the the situation globally uh some of the re-industrialization happening 265 00:13:58.276 --> 00:14:00.276 around the world i do think 266 00:14:00.276 --> 00:14:05.081 is going to um affect uh demand for raw materials and i think anglos and other 267 00:14:05.081 --> 00:14:07.081 commodity producers are probably going to be 268 00:14:07.081 --> 00:14:11.566 from that in a very big way so you buy anglos the the entity rather than the um 269 00:14:11.566 --> 00:14:13.566 subdivisions of it 270 00:14:13.566 --> 00:14:18.951 i.e anglo-american platinum i've always honestly have a very strong opinion in 271 00:14:18.951 --> 00:14:20.951 particular in the commodity i prefer divide 272 00:14:20.951 --> 00:14:26.050 to buy the diversified miners because they almost are trading into the commodities 273 00:14:26.050 --> 00:14:28.050 because they know more about what the commodity demand is than any individual 274 00:14:28.050 --> 00:14:30.050 stock 275 00:14:30.050 --> 00:14:32.352 so unless i have a strong opinion about you know a particular commodity like gold 276 00:14:32.352 --> 00:14:34.352 or something i tend to buy the diversified miners Okay, 277 00:14:34.352 --> 00:14:37.574 let's have a look at some markets now before we end our discussion on politics. 278 00:14:37.574 --> 00:14:42.775 So I want you to get your head around US politics just briefly while I give the 279 00:14:42.775 --> 00:14:44.775 market action. 280 00:14:44.775 --> 00:14:46.775 Dollar-Rand is 1854. 281 00:14:46.775 --> 00:14:47.216 British Pound against the Rand 2302. 282 00:14:47.216 --> 00:14:49.357 Euro-Rand is 1923. 283 00:14:49.377 --> 00:14:51.357 Euro-Dollar is 10370. 284 00:14:51.938 --> 00:14:52.998 Not much movement there. 285 00:14:53.138 --> 00:14:56.339 British Pound 124.15. 286 00:14:56.339 --> 00:15:00.540 There's a bit of movement there with the pound falling by just about half a 287 00:15:00.540 --> 00:15:00.760 percent. 288 00:15:01.252 --> 00:15:03.634 The gold price, which you mentioned, has fallen. 289 00:15:04.055 --> 00:15:05.636 It's given up all of yesterday's gains. 290 00:15:05.636 --> 00:15:10.820 It's down $27 to $2,845. 291 00:15:10.820 --> 00:15:12.161 A record high yesterday, actually. 292 00:15:12.942 --> 00:15:19.167 If we look at other commodities and the all-important energy complex, we've got 293 00:15:19.167 --> 00:15:21.167 Brent crude oil down 0.3% 294 00:15:21.167 --> 00:15:25.793 to $74.39 and West Texas crude $70.75 per barrel, 295 00:15:25.873 --> 00:15:28.815 also down around 0.4%. 296 00:15:29.095 --> 00:15:29.795 Excuse me. 297 00:15:30.392 --> 00:15:31.613 And not much else going on. 298 00:15:31.993 --> 00:15:35.456 The S&P 500 is churning around. 299 00:15:35.476 --> 00:15:39.460 6,100, that's the futures market, which is up 0.2%. 300 00:15:39.700 --> 00:15:46.686 The US 10-year Treasury bond yield is 4.43%. The yield has been coming down over 301 00:15:46.686 --> 00:15:48.686 the last couple of days. 302 00:15:48.686 --> 00:15:50.509 The South African 10-year is 10.67%. 303 00:15:50.569 --> 00:15:52.651 Of course, we've got the State of the Nation address tonight. 304 00:15:53.151 --> 00:15:58.236 Maybe it'll be affected by what Ramaphosa says, but I doubt it. 305 00:15:58.764 --> 00:16:04.470 And Bitcoin is just below 98,000, down around about 0.4%. 306 00:16:05.050 --> 00:16:09.514 And if I give you a couple of indices here, before we get on to politics, 307 00:16:10.075 --> 00:16:12.938 let's have a look now at the all-share. 308 00:16:13.118 --> 00:16:19.524 All-share on the JSC, 87,222, up 0.7%, and the top 40, up 0.9%, 309 00:16:19.524 --> 00:16:23.968 at 79,274. 310 00:16:24.476 --> 00:16:28.898 and obviously components within that, but we need not go into them because it's been 311 00:16:28.898 --> 00:16:30.898 a fairly quiet day. 312 00:16:30.898 --> 00:16:31.759 Tell me about Donald Trump and his pronouncements, Viv. 313 00:16:32.299 --> 00:16:35.361 I was shocked over the last 36 hours. 314 00:16:36.221 --> 00:16:39.702 I would say that you as a reasonable and intelligent man would have been as well. 315 00:16:40.983 --> 00:16:43.924 About what? 316 00:16:43.924 --> 00:16:46.145 I suppose there's about five different subjects. 317 00:16:46.605 --> 00:16:47.305 What was it? 318 00:16:47.906 --> 00:16:53.088 Well, you know, the Gaza story is obviously the most shocking, standing next 319 00:16:53.088 --> 00:16:55.088 to Netanyahu. 320 00:16:55.088 --> 00:16:59.290 And Netanyahu, I don't know if the smile that he had on his face was this man's 321 00:16:59.290 --> 00:17:01.290 ridiculous or 322 00:17:01.290 --> 00:17:02.570 I'm so lucky that he's in the White House. 323 00:17:02.610 --> 00:17:03.451 I don't know what it was. 324 00:17:04.131 --> 00:17:04.831 But come on now. 325 00:17:05.911 --> 00:17:11.433 Netanyahu, it would be Donald Trump, comes across as the reasonable person, comes 326 00:17:11.433 --> 00:17:13.433 across as the dove, 327 00:17:13.433 --> 00:17:14.854 as the less war boggery. 328 00:17:15.034 --> 00:17:15.734 Yeah, that is true. 329 00:17:16.034 --> 00:17:22.976 Look, I mean, with Trump, I think the same thing that applied to the last term 330 00:17:22.976 --> 00:17:24.976 applies again in that he's not a. 331 00:17:24.976 --> 00:17:26.976 extremely competent person. 332 00:17:26.976 --> 00:17:30.260 I heard Van Jones, who is a very smart commentator from CNN, speak about it. 333 00:17:30.440 --> 00:17:34.923 And he was saying, how does Donald Trump understand he's probably smarter than you 334 00:17:34.923 --> 00:17:35.282 or me? 335 00:17:35.323 --> 00:17:37.124 How do I know that he's the most powerful man in the world? 336 00:17:37.544 --> 00:17:39.505 And he achieved that the second time around. 337 00:17:40.166 --> 00:17:40.866 I can't do that. 338 00:17:40.866 --> 00:17:41.526 You can't do that. 339 00:17:41.526 --> 00:17:43.447 There's some talent there that is there. 340 00:17:43.447 --> 00:17:45.008 So let us ignore that fact. 341 00:17:45.409 --> 00:17:47.330 Is he good at actually running things? 342 00:17:47.390 --> 00:17:48.090 I don't think so. 343 00:17:48.330 --> 00:17:51.192 So he's very good at becoming prime editor's president or 344 00:17:51.580 --> 00:17:58.463 politically and in a genius in a way that i am not and 99.99 the population is not 345 00:17:58.463 --> 00:18:00.463 but he's not very competent when it 346 00:18:00.463 --> 00:18:05.306 comes to actually running things the person that is competent around things and 347 00:18:05.306 --> 00:18:07.306 has been proven to be so is elon musk uh just that today it came out news 348 00:18:07.306 --> 00:18:11.228 came out that he's now i think double the profit of twitter from before he bought it 349 00:18:11.228 --> 00:18:13.228 okay uh 350 00:18:13.228 --> 00:18:17.731 he's he's an operator of note and the thing that's really going to affect the us 351 00:18:17.731 --> 00:18:19.731 i think is what musk is doing and not so much what trump is doing 352 00:18:19.731 --> 00:18:24.414 because trump or the tariffs was had to tell us the weekend and then had them 353 00:18:24.414 --> 00:18:26.414 taken away you know a couple hours after the market opened on uh 354 00:18:26.414 --> 00:18:30.438 this week uh so he's back and forth he doesn't really push anything forward 355 00:18:30.438 --> 00:18:32.438 there's no real change it's going to be 356 00:18:32.438 --> 00:18:36.681 like build the wall it's going to be like you know the muslim band it's going to be 357 00:18:36.681 --> 00:18:38.681 like what's happened with regards to birth and decision he'll 358 00:18:38.681 --> 00:18:43.845 push some stuff through some of it might or might not go through that it doesn't 359 00:18:43.845 --> 00:18:45.845 really matter elon musk is going to end the department of 360 00:18:45.845 --> 00:18:48.788 education elon musk has ended the usaid elon musk is changing 361 00:18:49.008 --> 00:18:55.774 the way the u.s does its payment system and it's going to revolutionize it uh that 362 00:18:55.774 --> 00:18:57.774 i think is the real uh story 363 00:18:57.774 --> 00:19:02.780 here i don't know if you hear the story about what he's done with the u.s payment 364 00:19:02.780 --> 00:19:04.780 system okay so well i 365 00:19:04.780 --> 00:19:09.205 know that he's taken over the the the personal details of um many many thousands 366 00:19:09.205 --> 00:19:11.205 of people uh 367 00:19:11.205 --> 00:19:16.251 actually millions millions of people i don't know if that's a good thing or a bad 368 00:19:16.251 --> 00:19:18.251 thing i mean you seem to think that it's a good thing you seem to be on the 369 00:19:18.251 --> 00:19:19.134 musk side I don't think it's a good thing or bad thing. 370 00:19:19.154 --> 00:19:20.455 I think it's going to be done. 371 00:19:20.455 --> 00:19:22.258 I think that's the difference between Musk and Trump. 372 00:19:22.679 --> 00:19:24.081 Trump will say stuff and not get it done. 373 00:19:24.161 --> 00:19:25.102 Musk is going to do stuff. 374 00:19:25.162 --> 00:19:27.806 Whether it's a good or bad thing, I understand it's going to be done. 375 00:19:28.247 --> 00:19:30.330 But what he did, he brought in a 19-year-old. 376 00:19:30.802 --> 00:19:37.704 one night okay there's six of them between 19 and 24 years old and they're not even 377 00:19:37.704 --> 00:19:39.704 college graduates 378 00:19:39.704 --> 00:19:44.866 they're high school graduates viv yeah high school graduates so and you would 379 00:19:44.866 --> 00:19:46.866 think okay that's ridiculous but understand 380 00:19:46.866 --> 00:19:49.327 like um people between the ages of 19 and 24 have done most of the big things in the 381 00:19:49.327 --> 00:19:49.727 world 382 00:19:49.727 --> 00:19:53.448 including like conquer the world with alexander the great including i think the 383 00:19:53.448 --> 00:19:55.448 average age of the 384 00:19:55.448 --> 00:19:59.110 person that took people on the moon was like 27 years old so he's he's putting 385 00:19:59.110 --> 00:20:01.110 young very smart people in there whether or not 386 00:20:01.110 --> 00:20:05.814 i mean usaid taking that out the pep fight as a south african is a is a disaster for 387 00:20:05.814 --> 00:20:05.934 that to have been 388 00:20:06.195 --> 00:20:12.979 temporarily even suspended there's people whose lives depend on usaid okay um that's 389 00:20:12.979 --> 00:20:14.979 it's a bad thing 390 00:20:14.979 --> 00:20:20.284 but is it going to actually be done at the end yes because musk operates you know 391 00:20:20.284 --> 00:20:22.284 efficiently and operates competently 392 00:20:22.284 --> 00:20:25.668 maybe not for the best uh ends but he's going to do it i think that's the 393 00:20:25.668 --> 00:20:27.668 difference i 394 00:20:27.668 --> 00:20:31.607 think the us the part of education is probably going to go next and along with a 395 00:20:31.607 --> 00:20:33.607 number of other divisions. 396 00:20:33.607 --> 00:20:34.507 The CIA, every single person at the CIA, 397 00:20:35.768 --> 00:20:40.649 many people which are responsible for the security of the United States of America, 398 00:20:40.969 --> 00:20:43.150 and therefore by association with the world, 399 00:20:43.450 --> 00:20:49.792 have been offered an eight-month severance package if they sign the form by, I think, 400 00:20:50.172 --> 00:20:52.372 close of business tonight or tomorrow. 401 00:20:52.792 --> 00:20:53.492 What is that? 402 00:20:53.713 --> 00:20:54.773 And the FBI as well. 403 00:20:55.293 --> 00:20:56.313 Well, not so much the FBI. 404 00:20:56.353 --> 00:20:58.354 That's a different story because of January the 6th. 405 00:20:58.702 --> 00:21:00.623 But how can you get rid of the CIA? 406 00:21:01.804 --> 00:21:02.644 That is wrong to me. 407 00:21:03.505 --> 00:21:07.207 It's all federal agencies, all federal employees across the entire US. 408 00:21:07.667 --> 00:21:14.551 So if you're a federal employee in the US, I think they did it even for the traffic 409 00:21:14.551 --> 00:21:16.551 controllers, which I think after the last week was not a good idea. 410 00:21:16.551 --> 00:21:18.551 And I think they've resorted to that one. 411 00:21:18.551 --> 00:21:20.551 So the traffic controller can't leave. 412 00:21:20.551 --> 00:21:23.476 But if you work in any other federal department, you can basically get out with 413 00:21:23.476 --> 00:21:25.476 an eight-month package. 414 00:21:25.476 --> 00:21:26.998 And, you know, the threat is get out now with eight months of... 415 00:21:27.058 --> 00:21:33.900 pay or get out maybe in a month two's time with nothing you know and that's that's 416 00:21:33.900 --> 00:21:35.900 the case there such as the cia is every 417 00:21:35.900 --> 00:21:40.982 single federal agency with a couple small exceptions uh the fbi thing i think is is 418 00:21:40.982 --> 00:21:42.982 even more significant because in 419 00:21:42.982 --> 00:21:46.623 the fbi i think around about a third of the fbi or 40 the fbi's total workforce 420 00:21:46.623 --> 00:21:48.623 were 421 00:21:48.623 --> 00:21:53.545 in some way or another involved in the uh january 6 prosecutions if it gets out of 422 00:21:53.545 --> 00:21:55.545 all of them he's going to be 40 of the workforce of 423 00:21:55.545 --> 00:21:55.886 the fbi that is pretty significant 424 00:21:56.982 --> 00:22:03.705 and the people that he's putting in charge uh the difference between this generation 425 00:22:03.705 --> 00:22:05.705 this this term and the last term is not trump trump's the same person 426 00:22:05.705 --> 00:22:11.068 it's just that people last time around want to change things spotted trump and 427 00:22:11.068 --> 00:22:13.068 said if we get in power with 428 00:22:13.068 --> 00:22:15.730 trump we could actually change things and the people he's bringing along with him uh 429 00:22:15.730 --> 00:22:22.533 unlike the last time around arms in many cases much more competent and much more 430 00:22:22.533 --> 00:22:24.533 driven much more ideologically driven and 431 00:22:24.533 --> 00:22:26.615 what's going to happen is not what trump says It's what the people he brings across 432 00:22:26.615 --> 00:22:28.615 are going to do. 433 00:22:28.615 --> 00:22:30.615 And I think that's the difference. 434 00:22:30.615 --> 00:22:32.615 And Musk is just one of them. 435 00:22:32.615 --> 00:22:33.899 But I think a number of the other people he's brought across are going to change 436 00:22:33.899 --> 00:22:35.899 the way the U.S. 437 00:22:35.899 --> 00:22:37.899 operates. 438 00:22:37.899 --> 00:22:39.642 And this is, I think, going to be the most significant presidency in the U.S. 439 00:22:40.563 --> 00:22:43.224 since FDR, which is almost 100 years ago. 440 00:22:44.145 --> 00:22:45.065 You say significant. 441 00:22:45.085 --> 00:22:46.186 You don't say good or bad. 442 00:22:47.166 --> 00:22:48.207 No, no, I'm saying significant. 443 00:22:48.227 --> 00:22:48.927 I'm not saying good or bad. 444 00:22:49.007 --> 00:22:51.669 I think it's likely this might change happening very quickly. 445 00:22:52.429 --> 00:22:54.330 No one, even if you have a thousand IQ in the book. 446 00:22:54.430 --> 00:23:01.252 greatest heart of the world he's going to be able to pull it off without significant 447 00:23:01.252 --> 00:23:03.252 negative consequences it's too complicated machine it's too it's too it's 448 00:23:03.252 --> 00:23:07.974 too you know difficult to understand how it all works and what the implications are 449 00:23:07.974 --> 00:23:09.974 uh so this amount of change is going to cause 450 00:23:09.974 --> 00:23:11.195 negative consequences how bad i don't know exactly but 451 00:23:11.735 --> 00:23:18.297 it is going to change the way the u.s after donald trump and for donald trump is 452 00:23:18.297 --> 00:23:20.297 going to be the u.s before and after fdr fdr 453 00:23:20.297 --> 00:23:24.899 for those that don't know significantly changed the way the u.s works social 454 00:23:24.899 --> 00:23:26.899 security etc were all implemented under FDR. 455 00:23:26.899 --> 00:23:27.820 The New Deal in the US was all under FDR. 456 00:23:28.161 --> 00:23:29.742 And that's what Trump is going to do. 457 00:23:29.742 --> 00:23:31.863 He's going to change the US for the next century. 458 00:23:33.304 --> 00:23:34.004 The most important... 459 00:23:34.004 --> 00:23:35.345 Of course, I can't believe this. 460 00:23:35.365 --> 00:23:37.746 I mean, change for the next century. 461 00:23:38.126 --> 00:23:39.107 That's quite a statement. 462 00:23:40.168 --> 00:23:44.250 Yeah, I mean, you don't destroy things like the way the system... 463 00:23:44.590 --> 00:23:45.871 He's going to change the payment system of the US. 464 00:23:45.871 --> 00:23:47.552 They're not going to go back to the old system once it's done. 465 00:23:47.612 --> 00:23:50.994 He's going to change things like DEI and stuff in universities. 466 00:23:50.994 --> 00:23:51.694 He's going to... 467 00:23:51.694 --> 00:23:57.677 outlaw things he's going to executive orders they're going to change things you 468 00:23:57.677 --> 00:23:59.677 already see google and facebook come out and eliminate the di uh 469 00:23:59.677 --> 00:24:05.840 they have to because they've been told to do so by by trump at the inauguration or 470 00:24:05.840 --> 00:24:07.840 in the drinks after the inauguration 471 00:24:07.840 --> 00:24:13.583 it's going to take you for apparently it's going to take you many many more years to 472 00:24:13.583 --> 00:24:15.583 ever bring those things back to the level they were before trump okay 473 00:24:15.583 --> 00:24:19.706 it's going to change the department of education to restate that after four years 474 00:24:19.706 --> 00:24:21.706 uh maybe after eight or ten years twelve years 475 00:24:21.706 --> 00:24:23.900 if Vance becomes the president after this year, that's going to change. 476 00:24:24.284 --> 00:24:25.445 the way the US works. 477 00:24:26.266 --> 00:24:31.289 This kind of fundamental change, it's very difficult to build up these institutions 478 00:24:31.289 --> 00:24:33.289 again after they've been destroyed. 479 00:24:33.289 --> 00:24:38.355 And so I do think these FBI agents that are fired, they can't come back after four 480 00:24:38.355 --> 00:24:40.355 years and get back into their jobs the way they were. 481 00:24:40.355 --> 00:24:45.560 I think what you're seeing here is something that could be accidental 482 00:24:45.560 --> 00:24:47.560 brilliance via Donald Trump, 483 00:24:47.560 --> 00:24:49.203 or it could be a complete and utter disaster. 484 00:24:49.603 --> 00:24:50.684 I wonder which one it will be. 485 00:24:51.044 --> 00:24:56.786 If we are speaking in three and three quarters years' time, Viv, I wonder who 486 00:24:56.786 --> 00:24:56.965 will win. 487 00:24:56.965 --> 00:24:57.786 Do you think he'll win? 488 00:24:57.786 --> 00:25:01.387 Do you think it will be a changemaker for a century? 489 00:25:01.767 --> 00:25:08.309 Or do you think it will be a changemaker for a century which has plunged the world 490 00:25:08.309 --> 00:25:10.309 into darkness? 491 00:25:10.309 --> 00:25:10.929 Look, I think there's some of the things he's done. 492 00:25:10.929 --> 00:25:17.851 Like for instance, USAID, which is this organization that basically does things 493 00:25:17.851 --> 00:25:19.851 like feed people but also promotes U.S. 494 00:25:19.851 --> 00:25:21.851 values across the world, etc. 495 00:25:21.851 --> 00:25:23.851 It's brutal. 496 00:25:23.851 --> 00:25:26.894 it's a 50 billion dollar a year uh enterprise there's lives that depend on it 497 00:25:26.894 --> 00:25:28.894 in africa and i'm not saying that 498 00:25:28.894 --> 00:25:33.896 like you know flippantly you take that away without thinking about it properly 499 00:25:33.896 --> 00:25:35.896 which these guys cannot think about properly because it's going to happen too 500 00:25:35.896 --> 00:25:37.896 quickly 501 00:25:37.896 --> 00:25:39.896 and you will not have one or two people dying you will have millions 502 00:25:39.896 --> 00:25:45.019 or millions die okay that's the other thing when you change the fbi you take 503 00:25:45.019 --> 00:25:47.019 maybe a quarter of the fbi to put him to the fbi out 504 00:25:47.019 --> 00:25:52.761 when you go and offer this many people I think there's already 40,000 people that 505 00:25:52.761 --> 00:25:54.761 have taken the deal with regards to the federal agencies for early retirement, 506 00:25:54.761 --> 00:25:54.902 probably more by the end of the period. 507 00:25:55.562 --> 00:25:59.443 We take that many people out of these institutions and you take away things like 508 00:25:59.443 --> 00:26:01.443 the Department of Education. 509 00:26:01.443 --> 00:26:06.565 Yes, there are arguments that the Department of Education is not exactly 510 00:26:06.565 --> 00:26:08.565 what you think it is, but it does do good things like the Pell Grads and whatnot. 511 00:26:08.565 --> 00:26:10.606 And, you know, promote education for poorer people and so on. 512 00:26:11.486 --> 00:26:12.687 You do all these things here. 513 00:26:13.487 --> 00:26:15.127 You won't know the outcome in three and a half years. 514 00:26:15.127 --> 00:26:17.048 You won't know the outcome in 30 years time. 515 00:26:17.448 --> 00:26:19.129 when you see what the full impact is going to be. 516 00:26:19.349 --> 00:26:21.490 And that is the impact it's going to have. 517 00:26:21.830 --> 00:26:24.271 Obama's presidency, Biden's presidency, George W. 518 00:26:24.311 --> 00:26:29.473 Bush's presidency, they had momentary impacts, but they weren't changing the 519 00:26:29.473 --> 00:26:31.473 fundamental structure of the country. 520 00:26:31.473 --> 00:26:36.176 Trump, not through his own use of things here, because he's been used as a tool for 521 00:26:36.176 --> 00:26:38.176 people like Musk and so on, 522 00:26:38.176 --> 00:26:39.897 is going to have an impact that's going to last decades. 523 00:26:40.197 --> 00:26:42.258 And we will only know the outcome decades from now. 524 00:26:42.698 --> 00:26:44.139 Maybe even months from now, who knows? 525 00:26:44.699 --> 00:26:46.160 Viv, thank you very much for your... 526 00:26:46.480 --> 00:26:48.021 Always incredible insight. 527 00:26:48.061 --> 00:26:50.803 Viv Govender is from Rennes, Swiss, in Johannesburg. 528 00:26:51.143 --> 00:26:52.483 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 529 00:26:53.344 --> 00:27:00.288 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 530 00:27:00.288 --> 00:27:02.288 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 531 00:27:02.288 --> 00:27:04.830 position, or opinion of any other agency, organisation, employer, 532 00:27:05.151 --> 00:27:09.013 or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 533 00:27:09.473 --> 00:27:14.416 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 534 00:27:14.416 --> 00:27:14.556 entity. 535 00:27:14.776 --> 00:27:16.418 other than the speaker or the author. 536 00:27:16.719 --> 00:27:22.606 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 537 00:27:22.606 --> 00:27:24.606 change, revision, 538 00:27:24.606 --> 00:27:24.748 and rethinking at any time. 539 00:27:25.049 --> 00:27:27.472 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.