WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.412 --> 00:00:04.555 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.195 --> 00:00:08.898 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:08.898 --> 00:00:09.058 shadow. 4 00:00:09.058 --> 00:00:11.600 And as always on a Wednesday, it's Skulk Glo, 5 00:00:11.980 --> 00:00:16.123 who's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town. 6 00:00:16.423 --> 00:00:19.045 No, half the week's gone, Skulk, which is good. 7 00:00:19.525 --> 00:00:20.446 It's been a busy week, though. 8 00:00:20.446 --> 00:00:21.146 Look at Monday. 9 00:00:21.526 --> 00:00:28.011 Something called something, DeepSeek, came along and scuppered everybody's AI 10 00:00:28.011 --> 00:00:30.011 aspirations. 11 00:00:30.011 --> 00:00:32.011 And then yesterday... 12 00:00:32.011 --> 00:00:33.054 They all bounce back again because we'll talk about that in a moment. 13 00:00:33.114 --> 00:00:36.917 And I'm sure you've got opinions about that particular company and what happened. 14 00:00:37.177 --> 00:00:41.820 Then we've got the U.S. Federal Reserve tonight making their pronouncements on 15 00:00:41.820 --> 00:00:42.100 U.S. 16 00:00:42.100 --> 00:00:42.580 interest rates. 17 00:00:42.580 --> 00:00:44.342 And tomorrow we've got the South African Reserve Bank. 18 00:00:44.622 --> 00:00:45.423 And so it goes on. 19 00:00:45.663 --> 00:00:49.285 And also we're in the middle of tech earnings season in the United States. 20 00:00:49.586 --> 00:00:53.008 So there are things going on, mainly overseas, Skulk. 21 00:00:54.209 --> 00:00:55.069 Yeah, tech earnings. 22 00:00:55.330 --> 00:00:58.492 Tesla, Meta, Microsoft. 23 00:00:58.852 --> 00:01:02.013 Tomorrow, we've got MasterCard, Visa, Apple, Intel. 24 00:01:02.213 --> 00:01:07.336 Man, oh man, it's going to be a busy, busy, a little bit more than 24 hours. 25 00:01:07.636 --> 00:01:08.336 Definitely. 26 00:01:08.336 --> 00:01:08.936 It really is. 27 00:01:08.936 --> 00:01:11.497 So let's go back to Monday now, when DeepSeek came out. 28 00:01:11.818 --> 00:01:18.700 Now, they claim to have made this company from a mere $6 million or $5.6 million, 29 00:01:18.700 --> 00:01:20.700 whatever it is, 30 00:01:20.700 --> 00:01:22.700 the amount need not detain us. 31 00:01:22.700 --> 00:01:23.603 But the point is, it ruffled a few feathers. 32 00:01:23.903 --> 00:01:29.041 When I saw it, and I was speaking to David Shapiro about it, I just said, you know, 33 00:01:29.041 --> 00:01:29.180 what is this? 34 00:01:29.180 --> 00:01:30.422 There's two ways you can look at this. 35 00:01:30.742 --> 00:01:37.585 This can either tell you that the barriers to entry to artificial intelligence are 36 00:01:37.585 --> 00:01:39.585 getting lower and 37 00:01:39.585 --> 00:01:41.585 lower as people catch up. 38 00:01:41.585 --> 00:01:45.630 Or you can just say that this is just a Chinese knockoff, state sponsored, of 39 00:01:45.630 --> 00:01:45.850 course. 40 00:01:46.050 --> 00:01:50.232 And I think the latter in this case is more true than the former. 41 00:01:51.713 --> 00:01:56.036 Yeah, man, this is just crazy. 42 00:01:56.036 --> 00:01:56.736 I mean. 43 00:01:56.916 --> 00:01:57.637 We're talking about AI. 44 00:01:57.917 --> 00:02:02.361 It's just mind-boggling. 45 00:02:02.801 --> 00:02:08.787 I bought this book, and very, very quickly, she actually jumped on me now a 46 00:02:08.787 --> 00:02:10.787 little bit quick. 47 00:02:10.787 --> 00:02:15.513 But, I mean, I bought this book for, oh, yeah, I've got it, The Alignment Problem 48 00:02:15.513 --> 00:02:17.513 by Brian Christian. 49 00:02:17.835 --> 00:02:18.816 It's fascinating. 50 00:02:18.896 --> 00:02:20.597 It doesn't sound like a romantic novel to me. 51 00:02:20.697 --> 00:02:21.397 What is it? 52 00:02:21.397 --> 00:02:22.078 No, no, no. 53 00:02:22.078 --> 00:02:23.619 I don't read romantic novels. 54 00:02:23.619 --> 00:02:27.361 If I want to do any of those sorts, I would go watch a movie. 55 00:02:27.361 --> 00:02:28.901 I don't watch any movies. 56 00:02:28.921 --> 00:02:33.604 So, yeah, the alignment problem is just that. 57 00:02:34.224 --> 00:02:38.086 It's how AI has actually progressed over time. 58 00:02:38.166 --> 00:02:40.848 I mean, how we've actually gone 59 00:02:41.268 --> 00:02:47.431 50 years ago and started using neural networks, AI, those kind of things. 60 00:02:47.431 --> 00:02:54.158 It's very, very… But over the past five, six, seven years, it's just crazy. 61 00:02:54.158 --> 00:03:00.381 I mean, a little thing where you, I'm sort of digressing, we'll get back to deep sea. 62 00:03:00.841 --> 00:03:03.943 But I mean, it's just crazy when you look at the whole, 63 00:03:04.183 --> 00:03:09.305 it's called law system in America. 64 00:03:09.545 --> 00:03:16.288 We know there's a jury and usually they decide if a person is guilty or not 65 00:03:16.288 --> 00:03:16.448 guilty. 66 00:03:16.828 --> 00:03:22.252 So they've actually now started to employ AI, where somebody did something. 67 00:03:23.173 --> 00:03:27.275 Let's say we watch a lot of courtroom drama, so somebody killed another person. 68 00:03:28.136 --> 00:03:30.277 When that person can come in, 69 00:03:30.618 --> 00:03:35.901 they actually employ AI to really get all the information from that police 70 00:03:35.901 --> 00:03:37.901 department. 71 00:03:37.901 --> 00:03:38.923 They get all the information from the different lawyers. 72 00:03:39.364 --> 00:03:45.068 And they can say, well, we can put on a, let's call it a 98% probability. 73 00:03:45.468 --> 00:03:47.689 that this person is guilty. 74 00:03:48.969 --> 00:03:51.650 And they can also say, well, but they can also say, well, 75 00:03:52.130 --> 00:03:57.651 they could put about a 36% probability that this person would be found guilty. 76 00:03:58.071 --> 00:04:02.052 And it's fascinating how they've been using this in the judicial system, 77 00:04:02.353 --> 00:04:05.974 how they've been using this in medical areas, 78 00:04:06.034 --> 00:04:11.975 how people can be treated already looking at some of these AI systems and they can 79 00:04:11.975 --> 00:04:13.975 actually say, well, 80 00:04:13.975 --> 00:04:15.975 you need to get to a doctor. 81 00:04:15.975 --> 00:04:17.975 This is really serious. 82 00:04:17.975 --> 00:04:22.072 Is that one of the positives of it though, the health applications of artificial 83 00:04:22.072 --> 00:04:24.072 intelligence? 84 00:04:24.072 --> 00:04:26.975 Because there are very many downsides, but what you've just mentioned is very 85 00:04:26.975 --> 00:04:28.975 interesting to me. 86 00:04:28.975 --> 00:04:30.975 It is. 87 00:04:30.975 --> 00:04:33.239 If it's controlled properly, then it can be a great boon for mankind. 88 00:04:34.119 --> 00:04:35.320 There we go. 89 00:04:35.840 --> 00:04:39.502 You just used the biggest C word in AI for me. 90 00:04:40.263 --> 00:04:40.963 It's control. 91 00:04:40.963 --> 00:04:41.623 Yes. 92 00:04:43.321 --> 00:04:48.367 If you're not going to control this thing, you started off this intro about barriers 93 00:04:48.367 --> 00:04:50.367 to entry, 94 00:04:50.367 --> 00:04:54.394 how somebody can literally come in and tap into this information with very little 95 00:04:54.915 --> 00:04:56.997 resources and pretty much... 96 00:04:58.782 --> 00:05:05.364 create great havoc um i'm i'm still really really worried about i i don't think 97 00:05:05.364 --> 00:05:07.364 that's why i'm 98 00:05:07.364 --> 00:05:12.006 reading up on you and me both but don't tell anyone because otherwise we'll be 99 00:05:12.006 --> 00:05:14.006 buried by the by the fans and you know what 100 00:05:14.006 --> 00:05:15.427 uh i'm sorry to interrupt but while it's still in my head i 101 00:05:15.747 --> 00:05:22.509 receive i converse with a friend of mine and a year ago i received regular messages 102 00:05:22.509 --> 00:05:24.509 from him 103 00:05:24.509 --> 00:05:29.011 and they were just normal messages from a bloke you know and then suddenly In the 104 00:05:29.011 --> 00:05:31.011 last six months, 105 00:05:31.011 --> 00:05:34.816 the tone and the type of message that he sends has changed completely. 106 00:05:35.316 --> 00:05:36.537 And I know exactly what's happened. 107 00:05:36.537 --> 00:05:41.742 I won't say it to him, but the tone has changed completely because he's using 108 00:05:41.742 --> 00:05:43.742 words that he never used before, 109 00:05:43.742 --> 00:05:44.704 and the construction of his sentences are completely different. 110 00:05:45.025 --> 00:05:47.787 He's using AI to send a letter to a friend. 111 00:05:48.107 --> 00:05:52.931 And I find that on a very, very small microscopic scale, 112 00:05:53.011 --> 00:05:55.834 I find it a little bit offensive and a little bit dangerous. 113 00:05:56.154 --> 00:05:57.875 I'm not speaking to the same person. 114 00:05:58.215 --> 00:06:00.697 And AI, to me, is going to change people. 115 00:06:01.017 --> 00:06:02.338 It's not always for the better. 116 00:06:03.379 --> 00:06:04.380 No, undoubtedly. 117 00:06:04.780 --> 00:06:08.242 Undoubtedly, it's to a certain extent making it lazy. 118 00:06:08.262 --> 00:06:14.587 But I understand why you say a lot of people will jump on us because do I think 119 00:06:14.587 --> 00:06:16.587 this could be used for the good? 120 00:06:16.587 --> 00:06:18.587 I just said it. 121 00:06:18.587 --> 00:06:20.070 I do think it could really be used for the good, but this will need to be controlled. 122 00:06:20.450 --> 00:06:22.832 I mean, this is something that needs to be controlled. 123 00:06:22.872 --> 00:06:25.454 We can't just have this run. 124 00:06:26.575 --> 00:06:32.578 in the world, because I'm really struggling because your chat GPTs and your 125 00:06:32.578 --> 00:06:34.578 bots and all those 126 00:06:34.578 --> 00:06:38.461 things that you see lately, you don't know if this information is really true or not, 127 00:06:38.521 --> 00:06:45.265 because we've actually now found that some of the information that this AI has been 128 00:06:45.265 --> 00:06:47.265 feeding is not necessarily entirely 129 00:06:47.265 --> 00:06:49.265 true. 130 00:06:49.265 --> 00:06:51.265 And sort of now this thing goes on and creates havoc. 131 00:06:51.265 --> 00:06:53.570 But anyway, be that as it may, I mean, it's, yeah, I... 132 00:06:53.990 --> 00:07:00.194 I think this deep seek is still very much in the making. 133 00:07:00.234 --> 00:07:03.375 So this is going to be a very, very interesting story. 134 00:07:03.615 --> 00:07:04.696 It is an interesting story. 135 00:07:04.856 --> 00:07:09.579 And the one thing I don't like about it is it's obviously state-sponsored. 136 00:07:09.819 --> 00:07:14.181 And if it's not state-sponsored, then it is terrified of the Chinese state. 137 00:07:14.441 --> 00:07:21.025 Because if you go to deep seek and you put in a question, which I did, I don't know 138 00:07:21.025 --> 00:07:23.025 why I did it, 139 00:07:23.025 --> 00:07:25.025 but I was just very, very curious. 140 00:07:25.025 --> 00:07:30.509 having heard all the hype and I put in does President Xi look like Winnie the 141 00:07:30.509 --> 00:07:32.509 Pooh because there 142 00:07:32.509 --> 00:07:37.332 was that whole scandal about Winnie the Pooh being banned in China because he 143 00:07:37.332 --> 00:07:39.332 looks like Winnie the Pooh and he was walking 144 00:07:39.332 --> 00:07:43.754 along with President Obama at the time and President Obama looks like Tigger in the 145 00:07:43.754 --> 00:07:45.754 well-known 146 00:07:45.754 --> 00:07:50.197 children's book and they're walking along and it's uncanny you've got Tigger and 147 00:07:50.197 --> 00:07:50.317 Winnie the 148 00:07:50.317 --> 00:07:56.180 Pooh and you've got Obama and Xi and Winnie the Pooh was immediately banned 149 00:07:56.180 --> 00:07:58.180 from China. 150 00:07:58.180 --> 00:08:00.022 But then the answer comes back from deep seek. 151 00:08:00.042 --> 00:08:03.163 It says, I'm sorry, I can't answer that question. 152 00:08:03.944 --> 00:08:04.644 And that was it. 153 00:08:06.485 --> 00:08:10.627 So, yeah, we already see that some things are actually prohibited. 154 00:08:11.948 --> 00:08:16.510 Yeah, this is, yeah. 155 00:08:16.611 --> 00:08:17.311 It's a knockoff. 156 00:08:17.311 --> 00:08:17.931 We know that. 157 00:08:17.931 --> 00:08:22.694 It's like buying a Louis Vuitton bag from Shenzhen or something when you go 158 00:08:22.694 --> 00:08:24.694 traveling to. 159 00:08:24.694 --> 00:08:29.997 to China and you know it's not Louis Vuitton but it looks the same and it makes 160 00:08:29.997 --> 00:08:31.997 you happy and it makes these the seller Happy and that's the end of it. 161 00:08:31.997 --> 00:08:35.519 So yeah, but it's As you quite rightly say needs to be controlled, 162 00:08:35.539 --> 00:08:40.781 but the bounce-back is in place Skull and hopefully this isn't it too late. 163 00:08:40.861 --> 00:08:45.183 I mean, that's my worry Isn't it away when everybody says the I mean, 164 00:08:45.183 --> 00:08:48.585 we listen to an interview of Ellen must the other day as well. 165 00:08:48.985 --> 00:08:51.386 I mean and I mean he made it clear. 166 00:08:51.406 --> 00:08:58.230 I mean this we need to control, we need to, you know, sort of put some regulations 167 00:08:58.230 --> 00:09:00.230 on this, yet nobody's doing it. 168 00:09:00.230 --> 00:09:00.692 It's just, ah, it's fine. 169 00:09:00.792 --> 00:09:02.453 I'm going to censor this show, actually. 170 00:09:02.473 --> 00:09:03.874 I'm going to be like the Chinese state. 171 00:09:03.874 --> 00:09:07.837 I'm going to censor it, and no one's ever allowed to talk about Elon Musk on this 172 00:09:07.837 --> 00:09:09.837 program ever again. 173 00:09:10.178 --> 00:09:14.021 I wish we could talk about this, but, yeah, you talked about Louis Vuitton. 174 00:09:14.461 --> 00:09:19.504 I mean, I don't know if you've seen this morning, their update came out, trading 175 00:09:19.504 --> 00:09:21.504 update, 176 00:09:21.504 --> 00:09:21.686 which will be digressing and moving back to the market. 177 00:09:22.487 --> 00:09:23.668 No, no, don't worry about digressing. 178 00:09:23.708 --> 00:09:28.853 We'll talk about that because luxury goods have been sharply in focus in the last 179 00:09:28.853 --> 00:09:30.853 couple of months, haven't they? 180 00:09:30.853 --> 00:09:32.056 Yeah, are we talking about Louis Vuitton? 181 00:09:32.336 --> 00:09:33.036 Yes. 182 00:09:33.057 --> 00:09:34.899 It's a luxury brand. 183 00:09:35.460 --> 00:09:36.441 It's a luxury brand? 184 00:09:36.501 --> 00:09:37.762 They've done so well, haven't they? 185 00:09:38.780 --> 00:09:44.064 Very, very well, because we saw the update came out from Richemont last week, 186 00:09:44.564 --> 00:09:47.426 and we still had the question, 187 00:09:47.967 --> 00:09:54.852 will this sort of overflow to some of the other luxury brands, the LVMHs, the 188 00:09:54.852 --> 00:09:56.852 Kerings, Kering, 189 00:09:56.852 --> 00:09:56.953 more well-known for brands like Gucci. 190 00:09:58.254 --> 00:10:04.139 And yeah, today, this morning, LVMH came out, although the turnover looked pretty 191 00:10:04.139 --> 00:10:04.338 good, 192 00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:05.720 the earnings did. 193 00:10:06.488 --> 00:10:07.409 Very, very bad. 194 00:10:07.669 --> 00:10:08.570 Really, really shocking. 195 00:10:09.030 --> 00:10:10.651 Share price down 6% today. 196 00:10:10.712 --> 00:10:11.912 So not a lot of change. 197 00:10:11.912 --> 00:10:15.716 So because Richemont, as you said, was up like 15% last week when it came out. 198 00:10:16.536 --> 00:10:17.236 One day, yeah. 199 00:10:17.236 --> 00:10:18.718 Yeah, very strange. 200 00:10:19.038 --> 00:10:19.879 And actually continue. 201 00:10:20.119 --> 00:10:22.081 But it's actually, it's not strange. 202 00:10:22.081 --> 00:10:27.945 We had this conversation in our meeting post the Richemont meeting. 203 00:10:28.286 --> 00:10:30.968 It's always tend to think, well, because Richemont. 204 00:10:31.384 --> 00:10:37.669 is doing well, then naturally your LVMHs should do well, your Kering should do 205 00:10:37.669 --> 00:10:39.669 well, your Hermes should be doing well. 206 00:10:39.669 --> 00:10:40.951 And one should always just remember, look at the brands. 207 00:10:40.991 --> 00:10:43.933 I mean, look at what these companies are selling. 208 00:10:43.973 --> 00:10:50.398 I mean, Richemont, for instance, they do get a lot of their sales from the Cartier 209 00:10:50.398 --> 00:10:52.398 watches, 210 00:10:52.398 --> 00:10:52.899 those type of things. 211 00:10:53.219 --> 00:10:59.084 Your sort of more jewelry type of luxury goods. 212 00:10:59.144 --> 00:10:59.844 Which way? 213 00:10:59.844 --> 00:11:03.686 If you look at a Gucci and some of the other brands, I mean, it's more leather. 214 00:11:04.006 --> 00:11:08.468 It's very expensive handbags and belts and those type of things. 215 00:11:08.968 --> 00:11:15.171 And you should be very careful stating that because people are buying expensive 216 00:11:15.171 --> 00:11:17.171 watches, a.k.a. 217 00:11:17.171 --> 00:11:20.734 jewelry, they should actually, in theory, be buying these expensive handbags as 218 00:11:20.734 --> 00:11:21.134 well. 219 00:11:21.134 --> 00:11:26.256 Do you think it's a case that if you buy a watch, for example, It's seen as an 220 00:11:26.256 --> 00:11:26.276 investment. 221 00:11:26.276 --> 00:11:29.657 I mean, I never wear a watch, and I haven't for decades, 222 00:11:29.938 --> 00:11:33.519 but people like to wear a watch on their wrist because it's a piece of jewellery. 223 00:11:33.759 --> 00:11:34.939 But it's also an investment. 224 00:11:34.939 --> 00:11:40.981 If you buy a good brand, it holds its value, whereas if you buy a bag, I don't 225 00:11:40.981 --> 00:11:42.981 know if that's an investment. 226 00:11:42.981 --> 00:11:47.723 So you've got to be careful in the luxury goods space and say bags versus watches 227 00:11:47.723 --> 00:11:49.723 versus luxury drinks, 228 00:11:49.723 --> 00:11:52.564 you know, Louis Vuitton, Moet, Hennessy, et cetera. 229 00:11:53.532 --> 00:11:58.056 So you have to be selective I think, rather than a blanket buy if you see what 230 00:11:58.056 --> 00:11:58.356 I mean. 231 00:11:58.997 --> 00:12:00.778 I undoubtedly agree. 232 00:12:00.818 --> 00:12:06.223 I mean I had a client yesterday and I know he's listened to this podcast so 233 00:12:07.283 --> 00:12:08.424 I'm not going to mention his name. 234 00:12:08.765 --> 00:12:13.488 But I mean he actually, because you'll understand now, 235 00:12:13.488 --> 00:12:19.673 because as we went through his affairs, he went like, I just want to come clean. 236 00:12:19.733 --> 00:12:22.456 I mean he started asking me about the cryptocurrencies. 237 00:12:23.056 --> 00:12:27.560 I said, well, I'm quite vocal that I'm still worried. 238 00:12:27.661 --> 00:12:28.982 It's not properly regulated. 239 00:12:28.982 --> 00:12:35.608 It's still used by, you know, mafia bosses and those kind of I mean, it's not your 240 00:12:35.608 --> 00:12:37.608 cryptocurrency, 241 00:12:37.608 --> 00:12:42.295 as soon as it gets really seriously regulated and you can attach it to some 242 00:12:42.295 --> 00:12:44.295 valuation method, naturally I will look at it. 243 00:12:44.295 --> 00:12:46.999 But for now, I'm rather but I do like alternative investments. 244 00:12:47.079 --> 00:12:48.180 I do like gold. 245 00:12:48.240 --> 00:12:49.041 I mean, you know that. 246 00:12:49.141 --> 00:12:49.841 I like gold. 247 00:12:49.841 --> 00:12:51.642 It's hardly an alternative investment. 248 00:12:51.702 --> 00:12:55.905 It's been invested in for thousands and thousands of years. 249 00:12:56.065 --> 00:12:56.765 Exactly. 250 00:12:56.765 --> 00:12:58.646 It's a store of value. 251 00:12:58.746 --> 00:12:59.967 Do you understand what I'm doing? 252 00:13:00.227 --> 00:13:04.490 People don't go and say, well, let's look at my retirement planning. 253 00:13:05.010 --> 00:13:09.793 We're going to do a retirement annuity and let's go buy some Kruger coins. 254 00:13:09.993 --> 00:13:14.616 This is just not something that's still seen as something that's a more 255 00:13:14.616 --> 00:13:16.616 alternative investment. 256 00:13:16.616 --> 00:13:17.297 I told him, I like something like Golden Whitlock Skull. 257 00:13:17.617 --> 00:13:18.838 I need to tell you something. 258 00:13:18.898 --> 00:13:23.000 I mean, I've sort of held out on you over the past few years. 259 00:13:24.461 --> 00:13:31.385 I'm an unbelievable follower of Rolex watches. 260 00:13:31.865 --> 00:13:32.926 And I went like, what? 261 00:13:33.106 --> 00:13:33.806 Okay. 262 00:13:33.806 --> 00:13:34.486 He's done well then. 263 00:13:35.247 --> 00:13:37.148 If he's bought the right ones, he's done very well. 264 00:13:38.009 --> 00:13:40.370 He pretty much is a very selective buyer. 265 00:13:40.570 --> 00:13:44.212 And then he actually mentioned that when he buys, he'll buy four. 266 00:13:44.728 --> 00:13:46.169 He'll buy four of these watches. 267 00:13:46.589 --> 00:13:48.631 And he actually stores them. 268 00:13:49.091 --> 00:13:54.295 And he says those watches, you know, the one watch, I mean, I just fell on my back. 269 00:13:54.515 --> 00:13:59.098 I mean, talking about a watch, you know, a watch that he was looking for, looking 270 00:13:59.098 --> 00:14:01.098 for, looking for. 271 00:14:01.098 --> 00:14:03.601 And he bought the watch and it was something like 250,000 Rand. 272 00:14:04.082 --> 00:14:09.285 And before the year was over, it was trading close to 400,000 Rand for that 273 00:14:09.285 --> 00:14:11.285 same watch. 274 00:14:11.285 --> 00:14:12.868 So, I mean, this is what I'm getting to with. 275 00:14:13.128 --> 00:14:19.692 the likes of the rich ones with versus a kering's i mean you're still sitting with 276 00:14:19.692 --> 00:14:21.692 something that's i mean it's made of gold 277 00:14:21.692 --> 00:14:26.736 um it's it's got the jewelry valuations and people are looking for that little 278 00:14:26.736 --> 00:14:28.736 badge they're looking i mean just as a 279 00:14:28.736 --> 00:14:32.799 remember as i mentioned the word rolex you immediately went like he did well he did 280 00:14:32.799 --> 00:14:34.799 well i mean because 281 00:14:34.799 --> 00:14:39.543 the reason i say that is because there's a program on a sunday night on the bbc 282 00:14:39.543 --> 00:14:41.543 called antiques roadshow and they they 283 00:14:41.543 --> 00:14:43.943 very regularly have somebody who's brought in a rolex that they bought in the 284 00:14:44.724 --> 00:14:51.652 1960s and their dad gave it to them and all that sort of thing and you know it 285 00:14:51.652 --> 00:14:53.652 cost him 500 quid in 1963 or something it's now worth 286 00:14:53.652 --> 00:14:58.300 them there you know 40 000 pounds or or something they hold their value and they 287 00:14:58.300 --> 00:15:00.300 increase in value because 288 00:15:00.300 --> 00:15:04.082 it's a prestigious name and they're so well made it's an investment skull 289 00:15:04.082 --> 00:15:06.082 Exactly, exactly. 290 00:15:06.082 --> 00:15:11.405 And because that thing has got that little Rolex badge on it or Cartier badge on it, 291 00:15:11.405 --> 00:15:13.405 I mean, 292 00:15:13.405 --> 00:15:17.207 you will be happily buying that at a premium because you can take this watch. 293 00:15:17.567 --> 00:15:19.628 You're sitting currently, I'm sitting in South Africa. 294 00:15:20.048 --> 00:15:21.529 I can put this watch on my arm. 295 00:15:22.529 --> 00:15:28.472 I could go to where you're staying these days in the Netherlands. 296 00:15:28.852 --> 00:15:30.953 I could step into any of your… 297 00:15:32.657 --> 00:15:39.400 friends or shops and people will know exactly what is around my arm they know 298 00:15:39.400 --> 00:15:41.400 exactly the valuation of that arm 299 00:15:41.400 --> 00:15:47.063 of that watch no matter where i am no matter where i go so that that is a a sort 300 00:15:47.063 --> 00:15:47.483 of 301 00:15:47.483 --> 00:15:49.104 a a different different 302 00:15:49.364 --> 00:15:56.167 luxury luxury good and as i mentioned i mean it just shows you today that you know 303 00:15:56.167 --> 00:15:58.167 luxury goods all luxury goods are not 304 00:15:58.167 --> 00:16:01.189 created equal definitely not lately one other watch brand that i don't want to 305 00:16:01.189 --> 00:16:03.189 dwell on but 306 00:16:03.189 --> 00:16:08.774 to me better than rolex not quite as uh ubiquitous as rolex but patek 307 00:16:08.975 --> 00:16:15.720 philippe i've always wanted to own one of those and i will do one day maybe when you 308 00:16:15.720 --> 00:16:17.720 cash out of your your giant financial 309 00:16:17.720 --> 00:16:20.924 empire and you say who do i really want to bequeath some of my fortune to that's 310 00:16:20.984 --> 00:16:27.930 lindsey williams because he used to give me so much wonderful exposure on the five 311 00:16:27.930 --> 00:16:29.930 o'clock shadow and you'll buy me a second hand um a 312 00:16:29.930 --> 00:16:31.313 vintage patek philippe i notice you've gone very quiet now 313 00:16:33.618 --> 00:16:36.299 I went on mute because I just killed myself laughing. 314 00:16:36.299 --> 00:16:37.120 Oh, thank you very much. 315 00:16:38.000 --> 00:16:38.700 I'm back. 316 00:16:38.821 --> 00:16:39.581 Okay, you're back. 317 00:16:39.801 --> 00:16:41.282 Okay, let's have a look at the markets now. 318 00:16:42.162 --> 00:16:47.065 Okay, by the way, don't wear a Rolex in London at the moment because there are 319 00:16:47.065 --> 00:16:49.065 gangsters going around 320 00:16:49.065 --> 00:16:52.168 ripping people's watches off their wrists on motorbikes. 321 00:16:52.648 --> 00:16:53.488 That's another story. 322 00:16:57.090 --> 00:16:58.451 That's crazy. 323 00:16:58.451 --> 00:17:00.632 I mean, I had a I can't remember. 324 00:17:00.632 --> 00:17:01.833 I lost your February. 325 00:17:02.013 --> 00:17:08.558 I had a conference, and there was just a few individuals that came through, and 326 00:17:08.558 --> 00:17:10.558 they presented. 327 00:17:10.558 --> 00:17:12.558 They're actually from London. 328 00:17:12.558 --> 00:17:16.525 I looked at this Breitling watch that the one had, and really, I mean, you could see 329 00:17:16.525 --> 00:17:18.525 they are flashing. 330 00:17:18.525 --> 00:17:19.648 I mean, it's really, really beautiful, beautiful watches. 331 00:17:20.088 --> 00:17:21.489 I'm going to give it to you. 332 00:17:21.489 --> 00:17:25.132 I'm not going to diss the I mean, it's really beautiful watches. 333 00:17:25.753 --> 00:17:32.238 And we had a similar conference, and these same individuals actually came down again 334 00:17:32.238 --> 00:17:34.238 in November. 335 00:17:34.238 --> 00:17:40.082 And I kid you not, all three of them had, you know, two of them had Apple Watches. 336 00:17:40.222 --> 00:17:42.163 No, sorry, all three of them had Apple Watches. 337 00:17:42.163 --> 00:17:42.863 Yes. 338 00:17:43.364 --> 00:17:44.364 And I made the joke. 339 00:17:44.364 --> 00:17:45.965 I said, hey, guys, well done. 340 00:17:45.985 --> 00:17:47.426 I can see you started training. 341 00:17:47.526 --> 00:17:49.707 I mean, I can see it's health first. 342 00:17:49.707 --> 00:17:51.388 And they told me exactly what you just told me. 343 00:17:52.889 --> 00:17:55.070 They reside in London, just by the way. 344 00:17:55.550 --> 00:17:56.250 And they said, no. 345 00:17:56.631 --> 00:17:59.332 I mean, they just can't wear these watches anymore. 346 00:18:00.053 --> 00:18:00.753 They can't. 347 00:18:00.773 --> 00:18:03.195 I mean, it's like you just said, it's a motorcycle gang. 348 00:18:03.215 --> 00:18:07.918 They literally walk in the street and they will actually, they will stab you to 349 00:18:07.918 --> 00:18:08.198 death, 350 00:18:08.279 --> 00:18:10.560 take your Rodex or your braking or whatever. 351 00:18:10.560 --> 00:18:13.122 They sit outside restaurants and they see some bloke. 352 00:18:13.122 --> 00:18:17.966 He goes into the restaurant, takes his jacket off, and he's got this flashy watch 353 00:18:17.966 --> 00:18:19.966 there and they're watching. 354 00:18:19.966 --> 00:18:22.069 And even though he covers it up, they'll wait for two hours very patiently. 355 00:18:22.069 --> 00:18:23.269 And when he comes out, that's it. 356 00:18:23.930 --> 00:18:27.953 They hold him up and take a £50,000 watch off his wrist. 357 00:18:28.273 --> 00:18:28.973 violently. 358 00:18:29.034 --> 00:18:30.235 Okay, that was a good story. 359 00:18:30.355 --> 00:18:32.477 Dollar-Rand is 1865, Skullclaw. 360 00:18:32.477 --> 00:18:35.339 British Pound against the Rand is 2317. 361 00:18:35.339 --> 00:18:38.803 The Euro-Rand is 1942. 362 00:18:38.843 --> 00:18:40.504 Euro-Dollar 10410. 363 00:18:40.504 --> 00:18:42.526 That'll change tonight, I think, after the Fed. 364 00:18:43.086 --> 00:18:45.789 British Pound against the US-Dollar 12425. 365 00:18:45.789 --> 00:18:46.489 Gold price? 366 00:18:46.850 --> 00:18:47.971 Hmm, what is it? 367 00:18:47.971 --> 00:18:52.375 It's down about $8 to $2759 per ounce. 368 00:18:52.975 --> 00:18:54.737 Platinum and Palladium. 369 00:18:55.261 --> 00:19:01.686 actually they're very close to being the same price platinum 977 which is up about 370 00:19:01.686 --> 00:19:03.686 three percent and palladium is 371 00:19:03.686 --> 00:19:08.672 979 up about 2.6 other commodities i think we've had a bit of a oh i haven't 372 00:19:08.712 --> 00:19:15.598 got my c oh yes i have got my crb index up here excuse me it's going to be showing 373 00:19:15.598 --> 00:19:17.598 that brent crude oil is 374 00:19:17.598 --> 00:19:22.784 77.19 which is down 0.4 west texas 73.37 which is down 375 00:19:22.844 --> 00:19:25.553 just over half a percent And what else? 376 00:19:25.694 --> 00:19:27.875 Silver up 1.5%, wheat up 1.9%. 377 00:19:27.895 --> 00:19:31.897 There's a few others, but anyway, not so interesting. 378 00:19:31.937 --> 00:19:37.340 The US 10-year Treasury bond yield, the yield has come off its highs, thankfully, 379 00:19:37.740 --> 00:19:39.301 4.52% currently. 380 00:19:39.481 --> 00:19:46.005 S&P 500 futures, which were at one stage earlier this week, in fact on Monday after 381 00:19:46.005 --> 00:19:48.005 the deep-seek problem, 382 00:19:48.005 --> 00:19:48.226 5,995. 383 00:19:48.246 --> 00:19:53.049 Now 6,080, so nearly 100 points higher. 384 00:19:53.429 --> 00:19:55.674 in nearly 72 hours. 385 00:19:56.276 --> 00:19:58.000 And the South African 10-year bond... 386 00:19:58.508 --> 00:20:05.333 what is that 9.16 bitcoin yeah 102 200 let's call it which is down very 387 00:20:05.993 --> 00:20:12.938 slightly what are you seeing on the jsc today skulk ah jc it's a little bit like 388 00:20:12.938 --> 00:20:14.938 lasted i mean look like 389 00:20:14.938 --> 00:20:19.083 that not like lasted i mean everything seemed pretty pretty strong markets i mean 390 00:20:19.083 --> 00:20:21.083 it's 391 00:20:21.083 --> 00:20:25.527 it started off a little bit up and and then just the latter part of the day it 392 00:20:25.527 --> 00:20:27.527 really really looked 393 00:20:27.527 --> 00:20:28.409 solid I mean, they're sort of the bads. 394 00:20:28.469 --> 00:20:35.033 I mean, I know you're going to mention that the worst performance, and I don't 395 00:20:35.033 --> 00:20:37.033 know if this is going to reach one of the worst performers, 396 00:20:37.033 --> 00:20:39.033 but Cecil, oh, my word. 397 00:20:39.033 --> 00:20:40.956 I looked at the graph this morning, and over five years, 398 00:20:41.576 --> 00:20:45.058 you've lost 68.5% by being invested in that company. 399 00:20:46.199 --> 00:20:47.140 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 400 00:20:47.460 --> 00:20:51.542 No, it's been shocking, shocking, shocking. 401 00:20:51.542 --> 00:20:56.284 Well, I think last year, I'm going to look while we actually… Please do. 402 00:20:56.284 --> 00:20:56.984 I like these numbers. 403 00:20:57.865 --> 00:21:00.066 But, I mean, you're talking about five years. 404 00:21:00.286 --> 00:21:01.826 I think you can go back one year. 405 00:21:02.146 --> 00:21:07.008 I saw a graph, let's call it earlier, 406 00:21:07.548 --> 00:21:10.029 it was last Friday when that good news came out. 407 00:21:10.589 --> 00:21:16.511 It said that actually Sasol dropped by 58% over this one year. 408 00:21:16.831 --> 00:21:19.092 So, okay, so exactly one year ago. 409 00:21:19.412 --> 00:21:26.215 185 rand 185 friend was trading in in december 2023 so so basically let's call 410 00:21:26.215 --> 00:21:26.535 it the 411 00:21:26.535 --> 00:21:28.316 180 levels it started off 412 00:21:28.716 --> 00:21:35.619 2024 right i mean and today trading at 82 rand oh man that is 413 00:21:36.139 --> 00:21:42.802 that is crazy it's more than 50 percent and remember this this is a this is a 414 00:21:42.802 --> 00:21:44.802 company that's been trading well over 415 00:21:44.802 --> 00:21:47.584 500 rand um when we when we when 2022 this 416 00:21:47.864 --> 00:21:53.266 went up remember this in covet it nearly went bankrupt and and so so here we go 417 00:21:53.266 --> 00:22:00.168 2018 this this this company was trading well was going towards the 600 418 00:22:00.228 --> 00:22:04.949 rand levels then in covet it dropped down and and went 419 00:22:05.049 --> 00:22:11.971 below i was 15 rand there was 16 rand levels and everybody was thinking was 420 00:22:11.971 --> 00:22:13.971 gonna go bankrupt if 421 00:22:13.971 --> 00:22:17.634 you bought that in covet level 16 rand you You would have seen this company go 2022, 422 00:22:17.914 --> 00:22:19.576 go to over 400. 423 00:22:20.176 --> 00:22:22.298 Today it's back at 82. 424 00:22:22.318 --> 00:22:23.619 I mean, what a disappointment. 425 00:22:23.719 --> 00:22:29.204 And the most disturbing thing about that, I mean, apart from the destruction of 426 00:22:29.204 --> 00:22:31.204 wealth factor, 427 00:22:31.204 --> 00:22:31.726 is the extent of the destruction of wealth. 428 00:22:31.906 --> 00:22:35.529 In other words, it's a well-held stock. 429 00:22:35.889 --> 00:22:37.471 I mean, everyone's got Sassl. 430 00:22:37.791 --> 00:22:38.872 I mean, look at the PIC. 431 00:22:39.713 --> 00:22:41.114 I mean, maybe I'm talking out of turn. 432 00:22:41.174 --> 00:22:43.156 Maybe they offloaded it ages ago. 433 00:22:43.316 --> 00:22:44.016 But... 434 00:22:44.232 --> 00:22:47.034 Every single pension fund's got this in its portfolio, Skalk. 435 00:22:48.215 --> 00:22:49.176 It's not a good sign. 436 00:22:50.197 --> 00:22:54.000 No, no, it's one of the, it's a private company, 437 00:22:54.080 --> 00:22:57.363 but this is as close as a state-owned company. 438 00:22:57.963 --> 00:23:02.066 So there's a lot of people that work, you know, through and with Cecil. 439 00:23:02.086 --> 00:23:06.830 I mean, they had a horrible time, that latter part of 2019, 440 00:23:06.830 --> 00:23:09.092 where Lake Charles just did not finish. 441 00:23:09.152 --> 00:23:12.675 It just did not, they didn't get it on time. 442 00:23:12.675 --> 00:23:13.696 They didn't go on budget. 443 00:23:14.152 --> 00:23:15.813 And that nearly cost the company. 444 00:23:15.913 --> 00:23:20.334 I think that was one of the main reasons why this nearly, nearly actually didn't 445 00:23:20.334 --> 00:23:20.394 make it. 446 00:23:21.834 --> 00:23:28.596 They did mention, well, they mentioned, the CEO mentioned that they are 447 00:23:28.596 --> 00:23:30.596 considering, and this is now last Friday, 448 00:23:30.596 --> 00:23:33.617 this is why the company went well over 100 grand the one day, also over 15% up. 449 00:23:35.078 --> 00:23:41.280 They did mention that they are considering listing the chemical business separate. 450 00:23:41.380 --> 00:23:42.360 Now, in the chemical business... 451 00:23:43.136 --> 00:23:46.378 It's about 38% of the total company. 452 00:23:46.598 --> 00:23:49.700 Is that Lake Charles as well, that disaster? 453 00:23:50.200 --> 00:23:51.461 That's pretty much Lake Charles. 454 00:23:52.421 --> 00:23:53.622 And it's a company. 455 00:23:54.603 --> 00:23:57.424 It's actually now starting to do well. 456 00:23:57.444 --> 00:24:03.428 They can see a lot of growth in that company, but they're sitting with debt 457 00:24:03.428 --> 00:24:05.428 levels, and they pretty much can't sell anything else. 458 00:24:05.428 --> 00:24:07.210 The only thing that they really can sell is Lake Charles. 459 00:24:07.230 --> 00:24:10.391 So hopefully if they do a separate listing. 460 00:24:11.392 --> 00:24:18.220 And very similar to what we've been talking about, Woolies, wanting to see 461 00:24:18.220 --> 00:24:20.220 Woolies. 462 00:24:20.220 --> 00:24:25.082 de-listing or sort of listing their Woolies food separate from the rest of the 463 00:24:25.082 --> 00:24:27.082 company, that we can decide to share all this. 464 00:24:27.082 --> 00:24:28.745 I mean, how many excuses Woolies are going to give, share this? 465 00:24:28.865 --> 00:24:32.028 I mean, we've been talking about these excuses for years and years. 466 00:24:32.328 --> 00:24:36.191 But Cecil, hopefully they can do this chemical business, have Lake Charles 467 00:24:36.191 --> 00:24:36.211 separate. 468 00:24:36.692 --> 00:24:40.876 In the US, then I do think that there could be some unlocking of value. 469 00:24:40.876 --> 00:24:43.798 Yeah, that was the beginning of the end for Cecil. 470 00:24:43.878 --> 00:24:45.780 The end just being a euphemism. 471 00:24:46.160 --> 00:24:49.941 But it was just such an injudicious investment. 472 00:24:50.021 --> 00:24:53.962 And they must have seen Sasol coming and said, OK, let's see what we can get out of 473 00:24:53.962 --> 00:24:54.382 this. 474 00:24:54.382 --> 00:24:55.983 And they sold it for a fortune. 475 00:24:56.003 --> 00:24:56.803 And it wasn't worth it. 476 00:24:57.143 --> 00:24:57.863 On the upside. 477 00:24:58.363 --> 00:24:59.144 Sorry, sorry. 478 00:24:59.144 --> 00:25:01.084 I just want to quickly just, I mean, you mentioned something. 479 00:25:01.344 --> 00:25:04.265 And I just want to, well, sort of disagree with you. 480 00:25:05.285 --> 00:25:09.486 The PIC is still the largest shareholder of Sasol. 481 00:25:09.546 --> 00:25:11.887 So you're 100% right. 482 00:25:12.027 --> 00:25:15.068 I mean, that's talking about 70% of the companies out by. 483 00:25:15.332 --> 00:25:22.036 by the pac and i see ellen gray they recently um increased their holding quite 484 00:25:22.036 --> 00:25:24.036 substantially they've filled the third largest 485 00:25:24.036 --> 00:25:28.840 shoulder you know holding about eight percent of of sasson anyway let's look at 486 00:25:28.840 --> 00:25:30.840 some more cheerful stuff because impala platinum on the 487 00:25:30.840 --> 00:25:35.383 upside oh 6.2 anglo-american platinum up four and three quarters percent northern 488 00:25:35.383 --> 00:25:37.383 up four and a third percent 489 00:25:37.383 --> 00:25:42.087 and sandwiched in between the diggers is clicks up nearly four percent and harmony 490 00:25:42.087 --> 00:25:44.087 at the bottom of the leaders 491 00:25:44.087 --> 00:25:48.851 3.7 better On the downside, the ones we know, Sassell down three and a third, 492 00:25:48.851 --> 00:25:50.851 Tungela down three and a quarter, 493 00:25:50.851 --> 00:25:50.992 and Glencore down 3%. 494 00:25:51.012 --> 00:25:52.113 What about the indices, Scal? 495 00:25:53.734 --> 00:25:56.235 The indices today, as mentioned, had a wonderful day. 496 00:25:56.355 --> 00:26:02.519 We had the JSE Allshare close to that, 85,315 points, up just over 1%. 497 00:26:02.879 --> 00:26:05.140 Top 40, up 1.1%. 498 00:26:05.200 --> 00:26:10.884 Yeah, the resources led up with the diggers, 1.61%. 499 00:26:11.364 --> 00:26:14.687 Industrials 0.9% and financials over 1% up. 500 00:26:14.787 --> 00:26:17.609 Even the SA property had a wonderful day. 501 00:26:17.990 --> 00:26:19.691 That was up 80 basis points. 502 00:26:19.691 --> 00:26:22.674 So a wonderful day on the JSC overall. 503 00:26:23.074 --> 00:26:26.437 Turnover, I'm not really excited about the turnover. 504 00:26:26.757 --> 00:26:33.703 We didn't see a lower than 21 billion day for the past five trading days today. 505 00:26:33.783 --> 00:26:37.586 However, it didn't reach 19 billion, but still, we'll take this win. 506 00:26:37.807 --> 00:26:38.707 We'll definitely take this win. 507 00:26:38.707 --> 00:26:39.407 Yes, we will. 508 00:26:39.828 --> 00:26:41.590 Skulk, thank you so much for your time as always. 509 00:26:41.630 --> 00:26:44.812 Skulk Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth. 510 00:26:44.932 --> 00:26:47.695 Alt Oak in Cape Town, and that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 511 00:26:48.775 --> 00:26:55.721 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 512 00:26:55.721 --> 00:26:57.721 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 513 00:26:57.721 --> 00:26:59.464 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 514 00:26:59.804 --> 00:27:04.428 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 515 00:27:04.909 --> 00:27:08.932 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of... 516 00:27:09.032 --> 00:27:11.854 any other entity other than the speaker or the author. 517 00:27:12.135 --> 00:27:17.339 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 518 00:27:17.339 --> 00:27:17.439 change, 519 00:27:17.619 --> 00:27:20.182 revision and rethinking at any time. 520 00:27:20.482 --> 00:27:22.904 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.