WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow,

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and it's the first 5 o'clock shadow of
2025 with the excellent Skulk Lowe,

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Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in
Cape Town.

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Now, South Africans at this time of year
take a very long holiday.

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Skulk seems to have taken an extra long
holiday, because it's been, I don't know,

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maybe five weeks since we...

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last spoke, but I don't begrudge him that.

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And welcome back, Skulk.

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I've missed you.

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Are you energized or are you still feeling
a little bit in holiday mode?

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I decided.

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So firstly, Lindsay, thank you very much
for that glorious introduction.

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Wonderful to be back.

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Like you mentioned, we were sitting in the
latter part of January already, looking

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towards February.

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I sort of told myself I'm going to be
waiting for Monday.

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Let's just get Monday done, the
inauguration, let's just get Trump out of

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the way,

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and then I'll get back and see what we're
dealing with.

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And I must say, you know, you and I, we
actually sat in the beginning of December

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and we said,

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oh, this is going to be hectic.

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And it sort of started off nothing too
spectacular.

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In the mid-month, we thought, oh, boy,
here we go.

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And I think, you know, all in all, it
didn't end too badly.

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uh markets on the bond markets of course
which we'll come to later are we what that

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was the big one that we were looking

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for yeah i mean the bond market um
naturally dollar wise i mean the dollar

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also crazy and and if you look both the
bond market and the dollar i mean and

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still looking where the gold is trading
but

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you know i'm going to be ending the year
starting the year where i ended off you

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know gold gold it's not making us too old
lately so

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um Yeah, I think it's been a fairly stable
time.

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I still think it's going to be a very,
very interesting year.

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I think it might not be as easy as 2024,
but, well,

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let's hope I'm wrong.

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Yes, I mean, there's a good deal of
optimism.

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I keep on getting articles coming across
my desk in the morning saying there's

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optimism about

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South Africa, which is great.

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But on the other hand, is it justified,
Skunk?

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Are you optimistic about domestically
focused stocks?

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Yeah, I am.

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I'm still optimistic.

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I think naturally the main topic for South
Africa in

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2024 might be that three little acronym,
G, N, and U.

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I think that's been sort of the main
topic.

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And when you look at a few… things in the
latter part of 2024.

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Some of the stats that came through,

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some of the smallish improvements that
we've seen since the implementation of the

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GNU,

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it does give you reason for optimism.

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Here we're sitting January and we're
getting very, very close to a year without

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load shedding.

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So that's making us a little bit
optimistic.

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I think in general, yes, but make no
mistake, I think

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That's the one thing that we've seen over
the first two weeks of 2025.

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Well, we're sitting at three weeks, but I
would say the first two weeks, it was sort

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of dominated by, oh, here we go again.

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Look at the rent.

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I mean, that must have been Africa, 19.

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It was floating with 19 to the US dollar,
wasn't it?

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It was over in one stage.

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But, I mean, come on.

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We sat here six months ago, and the dollar
index, And I was flirting with that 100,

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you know,

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level.

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And we were saying, well, it's going to
break that 100 level because if it's break

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those 100 level, let's talk about
fundamentals, just pure technicals.

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It seems like it could go, you know, to
the 90 levels like a, you know, hot knife

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through butter.

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Here we're sitting, the Dixie, I mean,
suddenly the year started off.

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On one stage, the Dixie went well over
109.

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The Dixie being the dollar index, yeah.

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Dollar index went over 109.

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I mean, so this was, I would say, really
dominated by dollar strength and not

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really rent weakness.

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I still think looking towards 2025,

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we can continue doing these little things
right.

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When I say we, I'm talking about South
Africa.

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I really think that we could still see
some further improvement.

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in the south african economy we could see
some improvement in our unemployment rate

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and and ultimately we'll see the

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improvement in our currency so yeah am i
am i somewhat optimistic yes just

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remember that i think when you look at the
whole trump trade and he's focused focuses

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i mean it's not going to be um in a
positive for for most of the emerging

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markets it's

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going to be very very u.s focused and That
could be sort of a,

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this is called when you do a SWOT
analysis, you've always got the strengths,

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the weaknesses, the opportunities and
threats.

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I would just maybe classify that as one of
the threats for 2025.

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So what you're saying is that Trump is a
threat.

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I mean, I remember when he was first
elected.

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When was that?

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Back in 2016 or something?

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Something like that.

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Anyway, I remember the very moment that it
became apparent that he was going to be

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the president.

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The Dow Jones futures fell a thousand
points and it was around about two o'clock

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in the morning.

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I was morbidly fascinated watching what
was going on.

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And yes, we knew that this man, if I can
call him that, was the new president.

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And then afterwards, everyone said, well,
wait a second, he touts himself as a

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businessman,

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so he's going to be business friendly.

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And then the thing shot up.

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It went from a thousand points down to 500
up.

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This time.

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People not so sure, Scott.

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Yeah, you could see since Monday.

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We really actually started seeing it on
Friday.

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Sort of the inverse.

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Friday, we did see some strength in the
U.S.

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market.

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And since Monday, I mean, today again,

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S&P 500 again close to 1% up.

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NASDAQ over 1% up.

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And this is a U.S.

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school of the Trump trade.

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I mean, definitely markets are optimistic
on the U.S.

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I did an article in the beginning of the
year where I usually just go through

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all the major reports, the Goldman Sachs,
Citigroups, Vanguard, all the major,

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major investment houses, Deutsche Bank,
HSBC, big, big investment houses.

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And I usually try and go through all these
reports and try and get where they sort of

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agree,

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the golden threads.

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And it was very interesting that they say,
well, firstly, U.S.

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equity outlooks, they're not negative.

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I mean, they feel that the biggest risk
for U.S.

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equities is definitely valuations.

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I mean, we've heard about valuations for
the past five to seven years on U.S.

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stocks.

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So this year is going to be no different.

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They do see the stretched valuations and
still the heightened geopolitical risks.

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as some of the potential headwinds for the
U.S.

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But not necessarily, they're not seeing,
none of them are really seeing

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double-figure growth for the U.S.

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this year.

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I'm talking about the U.S., talking about
the S&P 500.

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They're really more seeing towards,
they're going towards single-digit growth.

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International equities, very similar.

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Similar, they're still saying, well, they
think some of these major developed

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countries, non-U.S.,

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might be a...

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better destination than the US, just from
a valuation point of view.

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Still really optimistic on AI and all
these sort of cleaner energies.

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That was the major themes that came
through.

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But you could see it's sort of a,

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you just say it's sort of carefully
optimistic or carefully bullish.

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But you can see that the worry is round
about the round.

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the emerging markets, they do feel that
this new policies,

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this Trump policies,

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is most probably going to be one of the
biggest headwinds for emerging markets.

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Especially if tariffs start to come in,
and also especially if the dollar,

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which was at one stage 102 against the
euro a week ago,

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especially if the dollar gets strong and
the emerging market currencies...

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particularly in our case, the rent gets
weaker, there is going to be a fallout

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because, I mean,

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it's got implications for debt obligations
and all sorts of things.

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But anyway, let's have a look at the
markets now, because at the end of the

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program,

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I'm going to ask you about your asset
allocation and whether it's changed since

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we last spoke, which was about five weeks
ago.

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But let's talk about the markets now,
because that's one thing of which I'm very

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certain.

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because it says so on my screen the dollar
round is 1851 the british pound against

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the round is 22 82 and the euro

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round is 1929 with the euro dollar 104 20.

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um british pound against the us dollar is
123

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30. commodities now it says on my screen
that the gold price is up 44 to 27.52 but

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it's obviously different time zones and
everything else but anyway it's up one and

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two thirds percent which is great um

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What else have we got?

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Platinum 963, which is up $18 an ounce,
and palladium 994,

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both still in three figures rather than
four figures, but palladium is $45 higher,

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or 4.8%.

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Other commodities, and notably the energy
sector.

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We've got the Brent crude oil price down
half a percent to $79.17.

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And West Texas crude is $75.69 per barrel.

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And that's down about a quarter of a
percent.

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Anything else going on there?

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No, still up two and a half percent.

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But anyway, the CRB index has done very
well since we last spoke, Scalp.

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S&P 500 futures.

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The highest on the futures in history has
been $61.78.

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That's, and now we are looking at

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61.24. So we're 50-odd points away from
all-time record highs.

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Lots of bullishness out there.

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The US 10-year Treasury bond yield, which
we referenced earlier on, yeah, the bond

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market in

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September, end of September, the US
10-year was yielding 3.6%.

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It's now yielding 4.6%, essentially.

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So it's a really, really big move.

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The South African 10-year.

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It was 940 a couple of days ago.

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Now it's 920.

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So another really big move.

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And what else have we got?

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Bitcoin, which has been extraordinary.

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Currently 104,400, which is up 1.2%.

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No, 105,000 now.

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1.8% higher and was 108.5%.

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Sorry, 108,500 a little bit a few days
ago.

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So Bitcoin going extraordinarily well.

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And that...

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Definitely is the Trump factor, Skalk.

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On the JSC today, I saw Mr.

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Price and Life Healthcare with a couple of
announcements, otherwise pretty quiet.

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Yeah, I think, yeah, so we had Quilter as
well.

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I mean, this is crazy.

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So let's start off with you, Mr.

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Price.

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Originally, I looked at this result this
morning because it came out pre-market.

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I was actually quite surprised.

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We did see the retail figures came out
today, also surprising sort of on the

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upside.

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But when you look at Mr.

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Price, when they came out and said, well,

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we actually increased our sales growth by
close to 11%, 10.6%.

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If you look at the comparable store sales,
now that's usually where they didn't have

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any acquisitions.

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So where they had exactly the same amount
of stores last year.

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and still this year in the third quarter,
those stores grew by 6.3%.

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So really, really, really good.

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I mean, and the outlook for Mr.

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Price also looked good.

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Share price sort of disappointed,

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but we know it did sort of guide it well
prior to the December holiday.

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We saw a big, big movement in Mr.

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Price lately.

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So I think it was sort of that, how does
the same go by and rumour sell on fact?

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It was...

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I think sort of the market just felt maybe
it's done now.

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I look at the outlook and I still feel
that Mr.

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00:13:18.669 --> 00:13:23.031
Price, despite the fact of its valuations,
might just not be a bad one.

237
00:13:23.311 --> 00:13:24.011
And then Quilter.

238
00:13:24.252 --> 00:13:24.952
Wow.

239
00:13:24.992 --> 00:13:29.514
I mean, this is a company, and for the
listeners out there, this is

240
00:13:29.935 --> 00:13:36.878
Natchi, the asset management company I
spent out of Mutual. And one that sort of

241
00:13:36.878 --> 00:13:38.878
got away from me.

242
00:13:38.878 --> 00:13:39.560
I mean, I follow the 91s.

243
00:13:39.840 --> 00:13:41.060
I follow the coronations.

244
00:13:41.941 --> 00:13:48.842
But quarters, slowly but surely, they're
just every single quarter they come up and

245
00:13:48.842 --> 00:13:50.842
they just grow that.

246
00:13:50.842 --> 00:13:51.003
They just solidly get those net inflows.

247
00:13:51.123 --> 00:13:55.764
Just to let people know, is it
domestically focused or is it an

248
00:13:55.764 --> 00:13:57.764
international business as well?

249
00:13:57.764 --> 00:13:59.764
International.

250
00:13:59.764 --> 00:14:01.764
International.

251
00:14:01.764 --> 00:14:03.764
Exactly.

252
00:14:03.764 --> 00:14:04.387
But I mean, what, again, they're talking
about 2024, total core net inflows,

253
00:14:04.847 --> 00:14:07.428
5.2 billion pounds.

254
00:14:07.488 --> 00:14:08.188
Not bad.

255
00:14:08.968 --> 00:14:09.869
really, really good.

256
00:14:09.889 --> 00:14:13.832
Q4, we saw a 2 billion net inflows.

257
00:14:13.932 --> 00:14:15.172
This is not market movement.

258
00:14:15.493 --> 00:14:19.475
And they even talk about when they look at
December,

259
00:14:20.736 --> 00:14:25.399
they ended 119 billion in total,

260
00:14:25.840 --> 00:14:27.881
and that was 3% up just for the quarters.

261
00:14:27.901 --> 00:14:34.145
I mean, in the market which didn't really
perform predominantly, as they mentioned,

262
00:14:34.145 --> 00:14:36.145
driven by net inflows.

263
00:14:36.145 --> 00:14:38.088
Yeah, they mentioned the stable market,
they mentioned the sterling weakness,

264
00:14:38.088 --> 00:14:38.368
but...

265
00:14:38.648 --> 00:14:43.732
Really, really solid inflows for Quilter.
Share price again reacted

266
00:14:44.113 --> 00:14:46.715
3.1%. Why do I say this is important?

267
00:14:47.215 --> 00:14:53.661
If you turn the clock back a little bit
more than one year ago, I mean, Quilter

268
00:14:53.661 --> 00:14:55.661
were trading around about the 18-rand
levels.

269
00:14:55.661 --> 00:14:58.385
Today, after today's movement, it actually
moved, what was it?

270
00:14:58.425 --> 00:15:00.546
It's now 36.60.

271
00:15:00.747 --> 00:15:04.530
So it doubled up in pretty much 12
months'time.

272
00:15:05.130 --> 00:15:06.271
Really well done.

273
00:15:06.391 --> 00:15:07.091
And to all the...

274
00:15:07.292 --> 00:15:10.294
all the shareholders in this company, and
man, I can just applaud you.

275
00:15:10.294 --> 00:15:11.435
Well done, exactly.

276
00:15:11.815 --> 00:15:15.478
Skulk missed, didn't join the ride with
you, but well done anyway.

277
00:15:15.518 --> 00:15:22.343
Talking about funds under management,
Coronation Fund managers came out with

278
00:15:22.343 --> 00:15:24.343
their total assets under management as of
the

279
00:15:24.343 --> 00:15:29.529
31st of December last year, coming in at a
fairly chunky 676 billion,

280
00:15:29.649 --> 00:15:30.349
Skulk.

281
00:15:30.349 --> 00:15:31.430
What you could do with that?

282
00:15:32.866 --> 00:15:36.989
Yeah, no, no, I can buy a few Coca-Colas.

283
00:15:36.989 --> 00:15:41.052
It's a lot, isn't it?

284
00:15:41.092 --> 00:15:42.013
It's a lot of money.

285
00:15:42.013 --> 00:15:42.713
It is a lot of money.

286
00:15:42.754 --> 00:15:43.534
It's a lot of money.

287
00:15:43.574 --> 00:15:50.479
But, I mean, it's been, I mean, looking at
Coronation, I don't know the graph in

288
00:15:50.479 --> 00:15:52.479
front of me, but the AUM has been around
about this,

289
00:15:52.479 --> 00:15:56.944
let's call it, 6 to 700 billion, what's
called AUM, been around those levels for

290
00:15:56.944 --> 00:15:57.004
many, many,

291
00:15:57.284 --> 00:15:57.984
many years.

292
00:15:58.165 --> 00:15:59.146
So we need to...

293
00:15:59.546 --> 00:16:06.250
need to see them start popping and then
and growing like a like a quarter as well

294
00:16:06.250 --> 00:16:08.250
well the share price was up around about
two percent today anyway

295
00:16:08.250 --> 00:16:13.294
talking about share prices on my board
i've got alpha min up um nearly 10 percent

296
00:16:13.294 --> 00:16:15.294
mtn up 6.6

297
00:16:15.294 --> 00:16:19.117
percent harmony uh near six percent winner
life healthcare we mentioned that before

298
00:16:19.117 --> 00:16:21.117
five point one

299
00:16:21.117 --> 00:16:21.659
percent higher and gold um goldfields also

300
00:16:21.739 --> 00:16:27.802
five point one percent up sassel down six
percent pick and pay down nearly six

301
00:16:27.802 --> 00:16:27.922
percent

302
00:16:27.942 --> 00:16:30.003
Clix down 5.2%.

303
00:16:30.283 --> 00:16:31.984
Karoo down 4.5%.

304
00:16:31.984 --> 00:16:34.246
And BHP down 4%.

305
00:16:34.286 --> 00:16:37.688
You're going to tell me that one or two of
those are XDIV or something.

306
00:16:37.948 --> 00:16:39.068
Or maybe you're not, Scout.

307
00:16:39.169 --> 00:16:41.170
Tell me, please.

308
00:16:41.270 --> 00:16:42.731
No, I'm going to disappoint you.

309
00:16:42.731 --> 00:16:44.251
So, Clix, I think, on your list.

310
00:16:45.452 --> 00:16:48.414
Yeah, let's take the winners.

311
00:16:48.634 --> 00:16:52.456
MTN, I saw two reports came out.

312
00:16:52.476 --> 00:16:55.378
I saw a report coming out from JP Morgan.

313
00:16:55.878 --> 00:16:59.520
I mean, that was an interesting one
because just a week ago,

314
00:17:00.180 --> 00:17:03.081
they still had a target price on MTN of
R110.

315
00:17:03.141 --> 00:17:04.062
Which it is now.

316
00:17:04.302 --> 00:17:10.905
They improved it or increased it to R119.
And also,

317
00:17:10.945 --> 00:17:14.426
I think Standard Bank was somewhat a
little bit more bullish.

318
00:17:14.506 --> 00:17:20.189
They actually had a target price of R130
on MTN that came out, I think,

319
00:17:20.229 --> 00:17:21.610
last night or this morning.

320
00:17:21.750 --> 00:17:22.450
And now she...

321
00:17:22.790 --> 00:17:25.632
Like I said, the rest is history to the
massive, massive movement.

322
00:17:26.212 --> 00:17:32.076
Cecil, we saw the, not news, let's call it
the article, the Bloomberg article,

323
00:17:32.576 --> 00:17:39.380
where they're talking about spinning off
or have separate listings for their

324
00:17:39.380 --> 00:17:39.519
chemical

325
00:17:39.519 --> 00:17:42.422
business, predominantly Lake Charles
business there in the US.

326
00:17:42.962 --> 00:17:49.686
And I think the market on that stage, I
think one stage was 15% up.

327
00:17:50.106 --> 00:17:52.687
End of the day, just close to 10% high on
Friday.

328
00:17:53.128 --> 00:17:54.408
You can see this optimism.

329
00:17:54.468 --> 00:17:55.309
This is the turn.

330
00:17:55.329 --> 00:17:58.290
I mean, Cecil are now going to start
unbundling and unlocking value.

331
00:17:58.711 --> 00:18:04.814
And it's just, I think, just a cold ice
bucket of water that's been thrown to

332
00:18:04.814 --> 00:18:06.814
shareholders saying that no

333
00:18:06.814 --> 00:18:08.814
real news coming out of the company.

334
00:18:08.814 --> 00:18:09.416
So it might just be a rumor and no fact.

335
00:18:09.597 --> 00:18:12.958
And I think that's why we've seen Cecil
really just retracing.

336
00:18:13.479 --> 00:18:15.860
And also, I mean, very nice.

337
00:18:15.860 --> 00:18:22.836
I'm not going to go into the full
presentation, Nice presentation coming

338
00:18:22.836 --> 00:18:24.836
from one of the bigger

339
00:18:24.836 --> 00:18:26.599
SA fund managers this morning, 361,

340
00:18:26.599 --> 00:18:31.582
where they actually just mentioned they're
not really bullish on SASL.

341
00:18:31.982 --> 00:18:34.344
And one of the main reasons was just this
whole

342
00:18:36.686 --> 00:18:42.270
Trump trade or the new US direction is not
going to be

343
00:18:42.590 --> 00:18:45.352
positive for companies like SASL.

344
00:18:45.772 --> 00:18:47.673
I think that might be one of the main
reasons.

345
00:18:48.054 --> 00:18:48.754
Okay.

346
00:18:48.774 --> 00:18:52.435
I'm just looking at MTN, which is a
company that we've spoken about many, many

347
00:18:52.435 --> 00:18:52.575
times.

348
00:18:52.655 --> 00:18:56.476
If you go back to August of last year, it
was 75 rand a share.

349
00:18:56.476 --> 00:18:57.977
It's now 111 rand a share.

350
00:18:57.977 --> 00:19:02.398
It's had a stonking good start to 2025.

351
00:19:02.718 --> 00:19:08.420
And in fact, its percentage move from its
52-week low, according to the screen I'm

352
00:19:08.420 --> 00:19:08.559
looking at,

353
00:19:08.920 --> 00:19:13.221
is 57.5% up from its 52-week low,

354
00:19:13.921 --> 00:19:16.422
which is the low that I was just referring
to.

355
00:19:16.842 --> 00:19:18.783
which is around about 75 Rand a share.

356
00:19:19.504 --> 00:19:21.345
MTM, what a performance.

357
00:19:22.245 --> 00:19:26.688
Well, this might not be the best time to
mention it,

358
00:19:26.728 --> 00:19:32.031
but if you turn the clock back to the
beginning of

359
00:19:32.071 --> 00:19:38.434
2007, you're going to give me the put-down
now.

360
00:19:38.434 --> 00:19:40.175
It was like 300 or something.

361
00:19:40.195 --> 00:19:40.976
What are you going to tell me?

362
00:19:40.996 --> 00:19:44.958
18 years ago, this company was trading
exactly at the same levels.

363
00:19:45.446 --> 00:19:46.486
It's currently trading.

364
00:19:46.507 --> 00:19:51.369
So, you know, besides the fact that you've
earned quite a nice dividend,

365
00:19:51.409 --> 00:19:56.491
if you bought this company 18 years ago
and you excluded the dividends, you pretty

366
00:19:56.491 --> 00:19:58.491
much have no growth.

367
00:19:58.491 --> 00:19:59.732
How many times have you held a stock for
18 years, Scott?

368
00:20:00.012 --> 00:20:00.732
Be honest with me.

369
00:20:02.513 --> 00:20:03.273
Let me quickly think.

370
00:20:03.354 --> 00:20:04.054
Never.

371
00:20:04.174 --> 00:20:04.874
Exactly.

372
00:20:05.554 --> 00:20:08.796
So it's a completely irrelevant comparison
you've just made.

373
00:20:08.796 --> 00:20:09.496
Yeah.

374
00:20:09.496 --> 00:20:15.491
Anyway, so, yeah, it's… I'm really happy.

375
00:20:15.511 --> 00:20:18.693
I mean, you know, MTN did improve,

376
00:20:18.693 --> 00:20:24.617
but I think they need to do quite a bit to
blow hot

377
00:20:25.258 --> 00:20:26.719
air up my skirt.

378
00:20:27.119 --> 00:20:27.819
Okay.

379
00:20:27.819 --> 00:20:31.342
Well, I didn't know you were all skirts,
but it's an interesting thought.

380
00:20:32.223 --> 00:20:36.626
Skulk, could you give me, before you go to
the indices,

381
00:20:36.966 --> 00:20:40.869
an idea of when you sat back at your desk
after your extended holiday?

382
00:20:41.369 --> 00:20:42.210
Did you say right?

383
00:20:42.754 --> 00:20:49.496
asset allocation has got to change my
views have got to change or you is it

384
00:20:49.496 --> 00:20:51.496
still business as usual at psg

385
00:20:51.496 --> 00:20:56.618
wealth old oak no no it's it's it hasn't
hasn't changed because remember we've

386
00:20:56.618 --> 00:20:58.618
we've known

387
00:20:58.618 --> 00:21:03.560
that that trump is is going to take take
office um you know for quite some time so

388
00:21:03.560 --> 00:21:05.560
so this has been been

389
00:21:05.560 --> 00:21:10.082
sort of we've had two months so nothing
has really changed since we last spoke we

390
00:21:10.082 --> 00:21:12.082
still we still really

391
00:21:12.082 --> 00:21:15.925
I mean, currently we're optimistic, I
wouldn't say really optimistic, but we're

392
00:21:15.925 --> 00:21:17.925
optimistic on local equities.

393
00:21:17.925 --> 00:21:19.647
So still very much overweight in that
regard.

394
00:21:21.548 --> 00:21:22.468
We would say U.S.

395
00:21:22.588 --> 00:21:24.970
equities, we're underweight.

396
00:21:25.490 --> 00:21:27.291
We're worried about the valuations.

397
00:21:28.512 --> 00:21:31.453
But international equities, we're still
neutral.

398
00:21:32.614 --> 00:21:35.576
Bonds at current levels, this might be an
interesting one.

399
00:21:35.676 --> 00:21:39.718
Because bonds, we're a little bit worried
about inflation.

400
00:21:39.974 --> 00:21:44.595
I mean, like most countries out there, but
I'm really worried about inflation.

401
00:21:44.635 --> 00:21:50.117
I think, you know, if these policies are
going to be implemented,

402
00:21:50.437 --> 00:21:56.359
I can't really see that it won't have a
massive inflationary effect.

403
00:21:56.659 --> 00:22:03.541
And I think this is why we've seen these
bonds sort of looking through these,

404
00:22:03.541 --> 00:22:05.541
because as I mentioned,

405
00:22:05.541 --> 00:22:08.562
when you look at these investment
companies, They're optimistic.

406
00:22:09.383 --> 00:22:12.623
They still say, when you drill through
this, they still say, well,

407
00:22:13.144 --> 00:22:17.245
we're going to still see further declines
in interest rates.

408
00:22:17.465 --> 00:22:18.725
We're still going to see it lowering.

409
00:22:19.685 --> 00:22:24.707
And they see the target neutral level run
about the 3.75 to 4%.

410
00:22:25.027 --> 00:22:29.688
They still feel that inflation is going to
remain between the 2% and 3% levels for

411
00:22:29.688 --> 00:22:29.848
the US.

412
00:22:30.188 --> 00:22:30.888
I'm sorry.

413
00:22:31.549 --> 00:22:32.889
I'm struggling to see that.

414
00:22:33.930 --> 00:22:35.390
Because they also see that.

415
00:22:35.770 --> 00:22:40.572
that the oil price is going to remain
roughly between $60 and $70,

416
00:22:42.052 --> 00:22:43.512
and it's not there currently.

417
00:22:43.833 --> 00:22:48.054
So anyway… Okay, a note of caution, in
other words.

418
00:22:48.554 --> 00:22:53.656
Inflation is not going to be as benign as
it was forecast to be around about a year

419
00:22:53.656 --> 00:22:53.955
ago,

420
00:22:53.996 --> 00:22:55.856
and we've already seen the evidence of
that.

421
00:22:56.496 --> 00:23:01.638
But further evidence, you're saying, is
going to come to the fore in 2025.

422
00:23:01.758 --> 00:23:06.160
and therefore the bond rates at around
about these levels, 4.5% to 5% for the

423
00:23:06.160 --> 00:23:06.520
U.S.

424
00:23:06.520 --> 00:23:09.361
10-year, are entirely justified, Scott.

425
00:23:10.642 --> 00:23:16.204
I do think that the bond market is telling
us that they don't feel comfortable.

426
00:23:16.224 --> 00:23:21.726
So now the question will be, but I think
at these type of levels,

427
00:23:21.886 --> 00:23:23.727
it's starting to get interesting.

428
00:23:25.568 --> 00:23:30.270
But just remember that the actual effect
of inflationary…

429
00:23:31.471 --> 00:23:38.215
shocks could still have a further negative
effect on on uh let's call it these bond

430
00:23:38.215 --> 00:23:40.215
devils that said i do

431
00:23:40.215 --> 00:23:45.380
think that at let's call it these these
massive movement that we've seen over the

432
00:23:45.380 --> 00:23:47.380
past three four weeks uh i'll

433
00:23:47.380 --> 00:23:52.305
i'll nibble i'll nibble you're nibbling
okay now scalp please give me the closing

434
00:23:52.305 --> 00:23:54.305
jsc indices and the value traded

435
00:23:54.305 --> 00:23:58.670
so the jsc today um like you mentioned was
was a little bit softer 23 basis points

436
00:23:59.070 --> 00:24:03.311
Soft closed today at 84,655 points.

437
00:24:03.371 --> 00:24:07.813
Resources up 19 basis points while all the
other indices were down.

438
00:24:08.653 --> 00:24:11.434
Industrials, they were down 20 basis
points.

439
00:24:11.514 --> 00:24:13.554
Financials down 55 basis points.

440
00:24:13.634 --> 00:24:18.035
And asset property index, that was down 29
basis points.

441
00:24:18.035 --> 00:24:20.596
When you look at the value trade, not a
bad day at all.

442
00:24:20.636 --> 00:24:24.097
I mean, surpassing yesterday's, let's call
it close to 22 billion.

443
00:24:24.137 --> 00:24:26.898
Today, 22.5 billion value traded for the
day.

444
00:24:27.154 --> 00:24:27.854
Very good indeed.

445
00:24:27.854 --> 00:24:29.175
Skulk, it's wonderful to have you back.

446
00:24:29.235 --> 00:24:29.935
Thank you very much.

447
00:24:30.076 --> 00:24:33.037
Even though you were completely
exhausting, I'm going to have to go and

448
00:24:33.037 --> 00:24:35.037
lie down now.

449
00:24:35.037 --> 00:24:37.700
Skulk Loo is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

450
00:24:37.960 --> 00:24:39.481
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

451
00:24:39.561 --> 00:24:40.401
Same time next week.

452
00:24:40.881 --> 00:24:47.845
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

453
00:24:47.845 --> 00:24:49.845
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

454
00:24:49.845 --> 00:24:51.587
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

455
00:24:51.907 --> 00:24:56.550
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

456
00:24:57.010 --> 00:25:03.977
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

457
00:25:03.977 --> 00:25:05.977
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

458
00:25:05.977 --> 00:25:09.463
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

459
00:25:09.463 --> 00:25:09.562
change,

460
00:25:09.743 --> 00:25:12.306
revision and rethinking at any time.

461
00:25:12.606 --> 00:25:15.008
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