You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
The JSC has closed its doors for another day and as it's a Wednesday I speak to
Skullclo,
Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak Cape Town.
It really is.
I mean last week I sort of introduced the,
you said it was a rather convoluted and over elaborate introduction to our chat
Skullclo, but this week
I've got nothing to say.
It's nearly year end.
The markets haven't done what we said they might.
do but they've still got a chance to do what we said they might do but next week
you won't be here so this is our last chat
yeah yeah how crazy is that i mean we just felt like we just started the year and um
a few weeks
ago we were talking about going into november can't believe that we're already
listening
to bony m and you know looking at sweet for yourself decorations yeah yeah well
i'm not listening it's
sort of it's one of those things you you you are actually being force-fed you Boney
M.
So I tried to stay out of the shopping centres because you walk into the shopping
centre and you just get
overdosed off at Boney M.
But be there, Sid May.
We're not going to do a review of the year because the year hasn't yet ended.
We've still got more than two weeks to go.
But in the new year we'll review the last year and it will be one hopefully that can
be
reflected upon with a good deal of fondness.
Well, I think thus far we can look back at it as a great deal of fondness already.
Because, I mean, unless something really bad happens over the next, let's call it,
20 days, I mean, I think it's been a pretty good year.
It's been fantastic.
I mean, if you look at just the stats, I mean, the JSC is an all-time record
closing highs for a year.
I think it is.
S&P.
500, which is the one that I like to look at, the MSCI, etc.
And so it goes on.
Interest rates are coming down.
Inflation is coming down.
Whether that continues in 2025 and whether politics and geopolitics intervene in that
year as
well is something completely different.
But at the moment, we mustn't worry about that.
We must just say everything's fine at the moment, especially within South Africa.
Retail sales rising by 6.3%.
That was a good number.
And that's before Christmas.
Yeah, great number.
And just to put sort of a figure behind what you just mentioned, I mean, here
we're sitting, 11th of December,
JSE year-to-date performance, 17.5%.
I mean, what a boycare.
I mean, what a great, great, you know, 2024.
I mean, we went into the year and it was sort of hoping for a, you know, your sort
of inflation plus five,
inflation plus seven.
And speaking of which, we've had that inflation figures coming out today.
So naturally looking at the 2.9% that came out.
It's nothing.
You would have expected.
Yeah, you would have been happy.
Yeah, that's nothing.
But it was interesting, Lindsay.
I mean, we're not going to delve in too deep because, you know,
when you run out of things to talk about is when you really start delving into
inflation data.
I'm sorry to say, when you say that, it's like an oxymoron.
We run out of things to talk about.
You never run out of things to talk about.
No, I know.
I mean, this is sort of an inside joke for the listeners out there.
I mean, Lindsay will always, you know, before we start the show, we sort of prep,
and I always say, well, I've really got nothing to say,
and we end up having an half an hour, 45-minute podcast.
Not telling.
Yeah, well, you never know.
You never know.
So looking at this inflation data, you can see it's quite an interesting trend
because clearly people have built up
a bit of a but of a sweet tooth.
Because if you look at the inflation data, I mean, the things that pop the most,
condensed milk, I mean,
16.3% up from last year, this time around.
Then things like instant coffee and salon tea.
I just wonder how important instant coffee and condensed milk are in the big consumer
price inflation picture.
I mean, you've obviously picked through it because you're really, really bored and
you want to go off to the south coast.
Can you tell me the last time that you bought a tin of condensed milk?
I don't have a sweet tooth.
So I really can't remember when last I bought a tin of condensed milk.
But to your point, I mean,
if condensed milk increased by 16.3% and the total
inflation year on year growth was 2.9%, it's not.
carrying a lot of weight, Lindsay.
Let's not beat around the bush.
Not in terms of the macroeconomic data,
but I can tell you there are some people that swear upon the instant coffee that
you spoke about with
condensed milk rather than normal milk or whatever it else is, powdered milk,
something like that.
Condensed milk is apparently a game changer when it comes to coffee.
Skunk, the...
The years ending in the United States and everywhere else are...
on a bit of a high despite the fact everything has been thrown at it and again
in the new year we'll talk about that but really i mean if
you if you had said 20 years ago or whenever it was that you started your your
career that uh a key
part of the middle east had
been overthrown or the the government of a significant country had been overthrown
you would have thought goodness me the world
markets would have done this and etc you How many more geopolitical events can be
just brushed aside by world markets,
do you think?
I don't think a lot, Lindsay.
I mean, you're actually hitting the Netherlands head now.
I mean, we can't keep on brushing this off.
I mean,
not while specifically you're looking at the US trading at elevated levels.
Now, when I say elevated levels, this is levels we've last seen pretty much.
You're talking about 2024 years ago.
This is levels we haven't seen for many, many, many years.
And yet, it just does not phase.
I mean, you talked about the S&P 500 making new highs, NASDAQ making new highs.
I'm worried.
And I don't want to sound like Rupert De Beers.
I mean, you know what?
You and I have been calling the market for the past three weeks.
And let's just get to 2024.
This is our… you know, my personally, my last show for this year.
And I think let's just celebrate, you know, for what happened.
But damn, I don't think next year is going to be that easy.
I think with all these geopolitical, you know, unrest and problems, we need to
start fixing some of them.
Otherwise, we're going to be in trouble.
I agree with you entirely.
But every single time, if you look at a graph, and again, we will look back in the
new year.
I keep on saying that, but I promise you we will.
If you look at a graph.
and you buy every geopolitical dip, no matter how small, no matter how big it's
been, over that last 20, maybe even
30-year period, you would have made money, because it doesn't last.
It really doesn't.
When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, everyone said, well, that's unbelievable.
And no, nothing happened.
Eventually, he was just squashed like the fly that he was.
let's have a look at some markets now because the dollar and look at that thing
now 1775.
by the way sorry i i i couldn't help i i need to get back um you know um when you
you talked about you
know graphs and and then i always hear when you talk about that i always think
about charlie munger's
you know saying i i think it's a beautiful one remember that he said mankind invented
a system to cope with
the fact that we are so instant in in
intrinsically lousy and manipulating numbers.
You know what that's called?
A graph.
It's weird.
You see, Charlie Munger was a great man and he died.
Was it this year or was it last year?
Probably last year.
It's last year.
I think it's last year.
But anyway, he was a great man and he made an enormous amount of money for an
enormous amount of people.
But on the other hand, a graph to me is a sort of financial anthropology.
of what has happened in the past.
And you look at it and you say, when I was born, the S&P was here, and now it's
there.
It tells you what has gone on.
So you must, I mean, don't use it as a tool to invest.
Use it as something in the background to say that when I bought this, it's gone up
to here or down to there.
So, as I was saying, and you interrupted me, the dollar round is 1775.
British pound against the round is 2264.
Euro round is...
1864, which is pretty good.
There's a 0.6% fall for the euro and strengthening of the round.
Euro dollar, 105.05, let's call it.
The gold price, the much-loved.
Goodness me, it's changed its figure from 6 to 7, and when I say from 6 to 7, that's
its second number.
$2,712 per ounce, up half a percent.
Thank you very much.
The platinum price, still a three-figure number, though, 951, although it's up 6
today.
But Palladium has just crept through to the four-figure number of $1,000.
$1,000.28 per ounce, to be precise, which is up something.
But my machine has made it a little bit more distorted than it is.
But anyway, it's $1,000 per ounce.
I'm laughing at you because it's up something.
It's up something.
It says it's up here 2,991% on my screen.
That's because I'm a cheapskate.
I'm sure PSG Wolf Old Oak has something more precise than that.
We'll come to that in a moment.
Elsewhere, we were talking about commodities, so let's go to the CLB
Commodity Index, which gives me the Brent crude oil price,
which is doing well, if you like that sort of thing, up 1.2% to
$73.03 per barrel, and the West Texas crude,
$69.64 per barrel, up 1.5%.
What else has done well?
natural gas prices as we go into a really deep european winter up five and a quarter
percent uh anything else
noteworthy not really but the crb index is very very close to year highs the last
time it was
here was in it's
done it twice it was in october and also just scrolling along here in may so it's a
triple top they say Double tops don't hold triple, no,
double tops do hold, triple tops don't.
This looks like a sort of a mini triple top to me.
So it looks like commodities are going higher, Scott.
We'll come to that in a second.
S&P 500, you mentioned that.
That's okay.
6,085.
Let's call it an all-time record high, up two-thirds of a percent.
What an amazing year it's been.
The 52-week range, by the way, on the S&P 500.
4,708 on the low and 6,111 on the high.
So very close to the all-time record high.
But I'm going to go out with Skulk on an all-time record high.
It is there.
South African 10-year bond yield is 9.12% after the inflation and retail sales
data today.
So that's not bad.
And the U.S. 10-year is 4.23%, which is barely changed.
on the day bitcoin you know we have to mention it it was 101 000 per coin
now back down to 96
166 i've got oh no it's back up to 99 000 sorry it's just changed its tune 99
988.4 up two and a quarter percent i've got my own feelings about
2025 when it comes to bitcoin as well but again we'll do that
Next year's skulk and he stocks that caught your eye today because it looks
quiet to me Yeah, we had it.
We had a sweet and sour talking about condensed milk.
I mean Bolo world Shell this yeah,
really really warded they they've been been made an offer new code
You know coming in and saying well, that's it.
We'll be able to offer a price of 120 round a share That will be by by you know
Bala World.
Not sure this will be reduced by that three-round 10 dividend.
So the share price really reacted.
There's still some fat in it.
So clearly Mr.
Markets is telling us, or Mrs.
Markets is telling us that we're not...
13-rand a share, yeah.
There's still...
Oh, well, let's call it 10-rand a share because we talked about the dividend.
So yeah, I think there's still some fat, but 15.5%, I think that's a sweet,
sweet deal for shareholders today.
And I think...
We were talking about sweet and sour.
NetBank shareholders today were really, really a bit distorted.
They came out with an update yesterday after the market closed, not even this
morning.
They didn't give you a lot,
but I think the thing that they did give you is they said their headline earnings
grew above
mid-single digits.
The market just said, well, wait a minute, wait a minute.
We're looking at a share price.
Year-to-date, as we sit here,
net bank is still up 35% year-to-date for 2024.
And if you're going to be mid-to-single digits, mid-single-digit headline earnings
growth,
you need to do a hell of a lot better to justify 35% growth in the market.
Market just hammered net bank.
Net bank down 5.8% for today.
And I think that was the two.
The two with the...
that stood out.
Sasol again, I found really, really interesting because as you mentioned,
world price did pop up higher today.
Yet, Sasol again, I mean, just mirroring.
Yeah, 4.2% down below that 90 Rand level.
It's actually below 89 Rand and it's just one of those shares that do not want to
catch a break.
And then, I mean, you mentioned the golds.
I mean, Agner Gold was third best performer today and yeah, he You're right.
I mean, you're talking about graphs.
I quite often look at the CRB Commodity Index, and it's just crazy.
I mean, if you look at the commodity, let's call it sector, resource sector for
South Africa this year,
seriously underperformed the JSC compared to the industrials and financials.
Yet, when you look at this CRB Commodity Index, it is just powering ahead.
And as you mentioned, trading very, very close to new all-time highs.
So, yeah.
Maybe something to look at, and the market told us today, maybe not a bad idea to
look at some of these commodity counters.
Just quickly on Bolo, Will, what happens to the company now, Skelp?
You talked about NUCO, but this is a significant move.
What happens next?
So NUCO is owned by, I'm going to try and pronounce this,
E-N-T-S-H-A, and it's a newly incorporated company.
Effectively, they're going to pretty much buy the company out and that will, as I
read this,
this will be the end of Bolleworld on the JSC.
That's what I was getting at, another delisting of a massive company, a
significant company on the JSC.
Again, diminishing the power of the JSC when it comes to a total market
capitalization.
Correct.
And that's sad.
I mean, this is a company that's been one of our largest companies on the JSC for
many years.
And you're talking about a top 20 company or top 40 company, many, many years on
this top 40.
And yeah, here we go.
I mean, another company is saying goodbye to the JSC.
That's sad.
Really sad.
Yeah, it is actually.
It's not one of these small companies saying, oh, we're delisting because it's
just too costly for us to be on the JSC anymore.
This is a big.
big company.
Bolo World today, up 15.5%.
There's a little bit of to-ing and fro-ing to be done, I think.
Alphamin, 13.1% higher.
Sabanier still water up 3.25%.
Angla Golda Shanty up just over 3%.
Tungela up 2.5%.
On the downside, Nedcore, 4.75% on my screen to the downside.
South 32 down 4.5%.
Sassel down 4.1%.
And 91 down 3.5%.
seven percent is 91 an xdiv story uh skull uh let me quickly have my list
yeah no no no it's not because i know it was xdiv last week so it can't be no
so just read the the the losers again um netcore south 32 sassel and 91
and php prop which we spoke about last week which is on the upside doing
something but anyway i've got those i've got the four
ones that you would recognize on the downside what have you got you Ah, no.
So none of those companies.
It's only really some of the big companies were Mr.
Price, Ex-Lift Story, Bukili, and Life Healthcare.
Yeah, that's it.
But the rest of the market was dead.
I mean, we're talking about 11th of December, so not a lot happening in the
market.
I think those were the two big ones.
Okay, give us the indices and the trading volume, the trading number, if you would.
So, Jay-Z today closes at 87,116 points.
It's down 0.18%.
The top 40, 78,479 points.
Also down 29 basis points.
Resources, as you mentioned a little bit earlier, looking a little bit better.
They managed to keep themselves positive, 0.4% up, while industrials were pretty
much unchanged for the day.
Financials down 0.9%, while the SA property index also down 0.5%.
So...
Not a bad day in general.
I think 18.3 billion value traded for today.
I think if you look at that from a point of view that it's the 11th of December,
I think it's not too bad if we're still flirting with that 20 billion this time of
the year.
Thank you so much for that.
And thank you so much for your contributions throughout the year.
I get so much good feedback about you because you're always in a good mood,
whether the gold price is up or whether the gold price is down or whether Nvidia
is doing this or that.
You're always very positive and you're always very articulate in purveying what
you think is going to happen.
And hopefully next year we'll be able to tap into you again, Skark.
Are you off quite soon?
Yeah, I am.
No, no, it's I'm already starting to smell the sea,
the beach, the waves and those kind of things.
So we're getting close to it, but still got some work to do.
But, yeah, thank you very much, Lindsay.
It was a wonderful, wonderful year.
Thank you for having me.
It's a pleasure.
You're always welcome.
Next year.
More of the same.
Indeed.
And hopefully as good a year, albeit with a few bumps here and there, as 2024.
Scott Logue is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.
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