WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day and as it's a Wednesday I speak to

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Skullclo,

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Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak
Cape Town.

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It really is.

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I mean last week I sort of introduced the,

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you said it was a rather convoluted and
over elaborate introduction to our chat

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Skullclo, but this week

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I've got nothing to say.

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It's nearly year end.

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The markets haven't done what we said they
might.

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do but they've still got a chance to do
what we said they might do but next week

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you won't be here so this is our last chat

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yeah yeah how crazy is that i mean we just
felt like we just started the year and um

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a few weeks

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ago we were talking about going into
november can't believe that we're already

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listening

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to bony m and you know looking at sweet
for yourself decorations yeah yeah well

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i'm not listening it's

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sort of it's one of those things you you
you are actually being force-fed you Boney

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M.

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So I tried to stay out of the shopping
centres because you walk into the shopping

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centre and you just get

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overdosed off at Boney M.

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But be there, Sid May.

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We're not going to do a review of the year
because the year hasn't yet ended.

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We've still got more than two weeks to go.

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But in the new year we'll review the last
year and it will be one hopefully that can

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be

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reflected upon with a good deal of
fondness.

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Well, I think thus far we can look back at
it as a great deal of fondness already.

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Because, I mean, unless something really
bad happens over the next, let's call it,

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20 days, I mean, I think it's been a
pretty good year.

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It's been fantastic.

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I mean, if you look at just the stats, I
mean, the JSC is an all-time record

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closing highs for a year.

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I think it is.

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S&P.

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500, which is the one that I like to look
at, the MSCI, etc.

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And so it goes on.

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Interest rates are coming down.

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Inflation is coming down.

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Whether that continues in 2025 and whether
politics and geopolitics intervene in that

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year as

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well is something completely different.

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But at the moment, we mustn't worry about
that.

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We must just say everything's fine at the
moment, especially within South Africa.

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Retail sales rising by 6.3%.

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That was a good number.

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And that's before Christmas.

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Yeah, great number.

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And just to put sort of a figure behind
what you just mentioned, I mean, here

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we're sitting, 11th of December,

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JSE year-to-date performance, 17.5%.

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I mean, what a boycare.

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I mean, what a great, great, you know,
2024.

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I mean, we went into the year and it was
sort of hoping for a, you know, your sort

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of inflation plus five,

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inflation plus seven.

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And speaking of which, we've had that
inflation figures coming out today.

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So naturally looking at the 2.9% that came
out.

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It's nothing.

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You would have expected.

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Yeah, you would have been happy.

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Yeah, that's nothing.

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But it was interesting, Lindsay.

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I mean, we're not going to delve in too
deep because, you know,

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when you run out of things to talk about
is when you really start delving into

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inflation data.

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I'm sorry to say, when you say that, it's
like an oxymoron.

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We run out of things to talk about.

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You never run out of things to talk about.

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No, I know.

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I mean, this is sort of an inside joke for
the listeners out there.

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I mean, Lindsay will always, you know,
before we start the show, we sort of prep,

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and I always say, well, I've really got
nothing to say,

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and we end up having an half an hour,
45-minute podcast.

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Not telling.

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Yeah, well, you never know.

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You never know.

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So looking at this inflation data, you can
see it's quite an interesting trend

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because clearly people have built up

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a bit of a but of a sweet tooth.

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Because if you look at the inflation data,
I mean, the things that pop the most,

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condensed milk, I mean,

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16.3% up from last year, this time around.

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Then things like instant coffee and salon
tea.

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I just wonder how important instant coffee
and condensed milk are in the big consumer

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price inflation picture.

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I mean, you've obviously picked through it
because you're really, really bored and

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you want to go off to the south coast.

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Can you tell me the last time that you
bought a tin of condensed milk?

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I don't have a sweet tooth.

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So I really can't remember when last I
bought a tin of condensed milk.

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But to your point, I mean,

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if condensed milk increased by 16.3% and
the total

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inflation year on year growth was 2.9%,
it's not.

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carrying a lot of weight, Lindsay.

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Let's not beat around the bush.

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Not in terms of the macroeconomic data,

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but I can tell you there are some people
that swear upon the instant coffee that

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you spoke about with

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condensed milk rather than normal milk or
whatever it else is, powdered milk,

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something like that.

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Condensed milk is apparently a game
changer when it comes to coffee.

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Skunk, the...

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The years ending in the United States and
everywhere else are...

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on a bit of a high despite the fact
everything has been thrown at it and again

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in the new year we'll talk about that but
really i mean if

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you if you had said 20 years ago or
whenever it was that you started your your

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career that uh a key

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part of the middle east had

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been overthrown or the the government of a
significant country had been overthrown

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you would have thought goodness me the
world

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markets would have done this and etc you
How many more geopolitical events can be

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just brushed aside by world markets,

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do you think?

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I don't think a lot, Lindsay.

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I mean, you're actually hitting the
Netherlands head now.

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I mean, we can't keep on brushing this
off.

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I mean,

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not while specifically you're looking at
the US trading at elevated levels.

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Now, when I say elevated levels, this is
levels we've last seen pretty much.

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You're talking about 2024 years ago.

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This is levels we haven't seen for many,
many, many years.

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And yet, it just does not phase.

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I mean, you talked about the S&P 500
making new highs, NASDAQ making new highs.

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I'm worried.

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And I don't want to sound like Rupert De
Beers.

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I mean, you know what?

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You and I have been calling the market for
the past three weeks.

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And let's just get to 2024.

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This is our… you know, my personally, my
last show for this year.

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And I think let's just celebrate, you
know, for what happened.

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But damn, I don't think next year is going
to be that easy.

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I think with all these geopolitical, you
know, unrest and problems, we need to

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start fixing some of them.

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Otherwise, we're going to be in trouble.

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I agree with you entirely.

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But every single time, if you look at a
graph, and again, we will look back in the

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new year.

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I keep on saying that, but I promise you
we will.

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If you look at a graph.

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and you buy every geopolitical dip, no
matter how small, no matter how big it's

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been, over that last 20, maybe even

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30-year period, you would have made money,
because it doesn't last.

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It really doesn't.

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When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait,
everyone said, well, that's unbelievable.

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And no, nothing happened.

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Eventually, he was just squashed like the
fly that he was.

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let's have a look at some markets now
because the dollar and look at that thing

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now 1775.

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by the way sorry i i i couldn't help i i
need to get back um you know um when you

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you talked about you

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know graphs and and then i always hear
when you talk about that i always think

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about charlie munger's

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you know saying i i think it's a beautiful
one remember that he said mankind invented

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a system to cope with

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the fact that we are so instant in in

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intrinsically lousy and manipulating
numbers.

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You know what that's called?

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A graph.

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It's weird.

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You see, Charlie Munger was a great man
and he died.

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Was it this year or was it last year?

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Probably last year.

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It's last year.

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I think it's last year.

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But anyway, he was a great man and he made
an enormous amount of money for an

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enormous amount of people.

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But on the other hand, a graph to me is a
sort of financial anthropology.

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of what has happened in the past.

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And you look at it and you say, when I was
born, the S&P was here, and now it's

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there.

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It tells you what has gone on.

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So you must, I mean, don't use it as a
tool to invest.

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Use it as something in the background to
say that when I bought this, it's gone up

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to here or down to there.

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So, as I was saying, and you interrupted
me, the dollar round is 1775.

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British pound against the round is 2264.

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Euro round is...

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1864, which is pretty good.

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There's a 0.6% fall for the euro and
strengthening of the round.

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Euro dollar, 105.05, let's call it.

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The gold price, the much-loved.

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Goodness me, it's changed its figure from
6 to 7, and when I say from 6 to 7, that's

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its second number.

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$2,712 per ounce, up half a percent.

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Thank you very much.

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The platinum price, still a three-figure
number, though, 951, although it's up 6

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today.

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But Palladium has just crept through to
the four-figure number of $1,000.

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$1,000.28 per ounce, to be precise, which
is up something.

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But my machine has made it a little bit
more distorted than it is.

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But anyway, it's $1,000 per ounce.

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I'm laughing at you because it's up
something.

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It's up something.

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It says it's up here 2,991% on my screen.

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That's because I'm a cheapskate.

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I'm sure PSG Wolf Old Oak has something
more precise than that.

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We'll come to that in a moment.

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Elsewhere, we were talking about
commodities, so let's go to the CLB

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Commodity Index, which gives me the Brent
crude oil price,

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which is doing well, if you like that sort
of thing, up 1.2% to

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$73.03 per barrel, and the West Texas
crude,

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$69.64 per barrel, up 1.5%.

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What else has done well?

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natural gas prices as we go into a really
deep european winter up five and a quarter

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percent uh anything else

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noteworthy not really but the crb index is
very very close to year highs the last

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time it was

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here was in it's

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done it twice it was in october and also
just scrolling along here in may so it's a

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triple top they say Double tops don't hold
triple, no,

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double tops do hold, triple tops don't.

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This looks like a sort of a mini triple
top to me.

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So it looks like commodities are going
higher, Scott.

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We'll come to that in a second.

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S&P 500, you mentioned that.

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That's okay.

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6,085.

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Let's call it an all-time record high, up
two-thirds of a percent.

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What an amazing year it's been.

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The 52-week range, by the way, on the S&P
500.

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4,708 on the low and 6,111 on the high.

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So very close to the all-time record high.

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But I'm going to go out with Skulk on an
all-time record high.

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It is there.

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South African 10-year bond yield is 9.12%
after the inflation and retail sales

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data today.

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So that's not bad.

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And the U.S. 10-year is 4.23%, which is
barely changed.

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on the day bitcoin you know we have to
mention it it was 101 000 per coin

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now back down to 96

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166 i've got oh no it's back up to 99 000
sorry it's just changed its tune 99

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988.4 up two and a quarter percent i've
got my own feelings about

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2025 when it comes to bitcoin as well but
again we'll do that

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Next year's skulk and he stocks that
caught your eye today because it looks

239
00:12:18.371 --> 00:12:20.371
quiet to me Yeah, we had it.

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00:12:20.371 --> 00:12:20.712
We had a sweet and sour talking about
condensed milk.

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00:12:20.772 --> 00:12:25.954
I mean Bolo world Shell this yeah,

242
00:12:26.374 --> 00:12:31.456
really really warded they they've been
been made an offer new code

243
00:12:31.876 --> 00:12:33.897
You know coming in and saying well, that's
it.

244
00:12:33.997 --> 00:12:40.360
We'll be able to offer a price of 120
round a share That will be by by you know

245
00:12:40.864 --> 00:12:41.564
Bala World.

246
00:12:41.945 --> 00:12:46.447
Not sure this will be reduced by that
three-round 10 dividend.

247
00:12:47.007 --> 00:12:48.908
So the share price really reacted.

248
00:12:48.928 --> 00:12:50.049
There's still some fat in it.

249
00:12:50.089 --> 00:12:50.870
So clearly Mr.

250
00:12:50.890 --> 00:12:51.970
Markets is telling us, or Mrs.

251
00:12:52.030 --> 00:12:53.791
Markets is telling us that we're not...

252
00:12:53.851 --> 00:12:55.452
13-rand a share, yeah.

253
00:12:55.492 --> 00:12:56.192
There's still...

254
00:12:56.192 --> 00:12:59.875
Oh, well, let's call it 10-rand a share
because we talked about the dividend.

255
00:13:01.415 --> 00:13:06.818
So yeah, I think there's still some fat,
but 15.5%, I think that's a sweet,

256
00:13:07.419 --> 00:13:08.899
sweet deal for shareholders today.

257
00:13:08.899 --> 00:13:09.599
And I think...

258
00:13:10.284 --> 00:13:11.785
We were talking about sweet and sour.

259
00:13:12.386 --> 00:13:16.769
NetBank shareholders today were really,
really a bit distorted.

260
00:13:16.829 --> 00:13:21.772
They came out with an update yesterday
after the market closed, not even this

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00:13:21.772 --> 00:13:21.992
morning.

262
00:13:23.333 --> 00:13:26.395
They didn't give you a lot,

263
00:13:26.736 --> 00:13:33.180
but I think the thing that they did give
you is they said their headline earnings

264
00:13:33.180 --> 00:13:35.180
grew above

265
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mid-single digits.

266
00:13:37.180 --> 00:13:38.784
The market just said, well, wait a minute,
wait a minute.

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00:13:39.784 --> 00:13:41.045
We're looking at a share price.

268
00:13:41.665 --> 00:13:43.225
Year-to-date, as we sit here,

269
00:13:44.246 --> 00:13:48.867
net bank is still up 35% year-to-date for
2024.

270
00:13:48.867 --> 00:13:54.988
And if you're going to be mid-to-single
digits, mid-single-digit headline earnings

271
00:13:54.988 --> 00:13:55.108
growth,

272
00:13:55.309 --> 00:13:59.830
you need to do a hell of a lot better to
justify 35% growth in the market.

273
00:14:00.370 --> 00:14:02.551
Market just hammered net bank.

274
00:14:02.611 --> 00:14:04.991
Net bank down 5.8% for today.

275
00:14:05.291 --> 00:14:06.112
And I think that was the two.

276
00:14:06.312 --> 00:14:07.612
The two with the...

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00:14:08.012 --> 00:14:08.712
that stood out.

278
00:14:09.093 --> 00:14:12.936
Sasol again, I found really, really
interesting because as you mentioned,

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00:14:13.797 --> 00:14:17.400
world price did pop up higher today.

280
00:14:17.940 --> 00:14:20.342
Yet, Sasol again, I mean, just mirroring.

281
00:14:20.883 --> 00:14:24.125
Yeah, 4.2% down below that 90 Rand level.

282
00:14:24.125 --> 00:14:29.210
It's actually below 89 Rand and it's just
one of those shares that do not want to

283
00:14:29.210 --> 00:14:31.210
catch a break.

284
00:14:31.210 --> 00:14:31.512
And then, I mean, you mentioned the golds.

285
00:14:31.532 --> 00:14:37.697
I mean, Agner Gold was third best
performer today and yeah, he You're right.

286
00:14:37.697 --> 00:14:38.758
I mean, you're talking about graphs.

287
00:14:39.838 --> 00:14:44.702
I quite often look at the CRB Commodity
Index, and it's just crazy.

288
00:14:44.702 --> 00:14:49.867
I mean, if you look at the commodity,
let's call it sector, resource sector for

289
00:14:49.867 --> 00:14:51.867
South Africa this year,

290
00:14:51.867 --> 00:14:55.391
seriously underperformed the JSC compared
to the industrials and financials.

291
00:14:55.832 --> 00:15:00.556
Yet, when you look at this CRB Commodity
Index, it is just powering ahead.

292
00:15:00.676 --> 00:15:05.180
And as you mentioned, trading very, very
close to new all-time highs.

293
00:15:05.180 --> 00:15:05.880
So, yeah.

294
00:15:05.880 --> 00:15:12.346
Maybe something to look at, and the market
told us today, maybe not a bad idea to

295
00:15:12.346 --> 00:15:14.346
look at some of these commodity counters.

296
00:15:14.346 --> 00:15:15.388
Just quickly on Bolo, Will, what happens
to the company now, Skelp?

297
00:15:15.869 --> 00:15:19.272
You talked about NUCO, but this is a
significant move.

298
00:15:19.292 --> 00:15:20.133
What happens next?

299
00:15:21.414 --> 00:15:27.239
So NUCO is owned by, I'm going to try and
pronounce this,

300
00:15:27.339 --> 00:15:32.503
E-N-T-S-H-A, and it's a newly incorporated
company.

301
00:15:33.660 --> 00:15:39.204
Effectively, they're going to pretty much
buy the company out and that will, as I

302
00:15:39.204 --> 00:15:39.343
read this,

303
00:15:39.343 --> 00:15:42.045
this will be the end of Bolleworld on the
JSC.

304
00:15:43.066 --> 00:15:49.290
That's what I was getting at, another
delisting of a massive company, a

305
00:15:49.290 --> 00:15:51.290
significant company on the JSC.

306
00:15:51.290 --> 00:15:54.893
Again, diminishing the power of the JSC
when it comes to a total market

307
00:15:54.893 --> 00:15:56.893
capitalization.

308
00:15:56.893 --> 00:15:58.893
Correct.

309
00:15:58.893 --> 00:16:00.893
Correct.

310
00:16:00.893 --> 00:16:02.893
And that's sad.

311
00:16:02.893 --> 00:16:04.893
I mean, this is a company that's been one
of our largest companies on the JSC for

312
00:16:04.893 --> 00:16:06.893
many years.

313
00:16:06.893 --> 00:16:08.092
And you're talking about a top 20 company
or top 40 company, many, many years on

314
00:16:08.092 --> 00:16:10.092
this top 40.

315
00:16:10.092 --> 00:16:12.092
And yeah, here we go.

316
00:16:12.092 --> 00:16:13.335
I mean, another company is saying goodbye
to the JSC.

317
00:16:13.835 --> 00:16:14.595
That's sad.

318
00:16:14.816 --> 00:16:15.516
Really sad.

319
00:16:15.736 --> 00:16:18.277
Yeah, it is actually.

320
00:16:18.277 --> 00:16:23.480
It's not one of these small companies
saying, oh, we're delisting because it's

321
00:16:23.480 --> 00:16:25.480
just too costly for us to be on the JSC
anymore.

322
00:16:25.480 --> 00:16:27.480
This is a big.

323
00:16:27.480 --> 00:16:29.480
big company.

324
00:16:29.480 --> 00:16:31.480
Bolo World today, up 15.5%.

325
00:16:31.480 --> 00:16:31.564
There's a little bit of to-ing and fro-ing
to be done, I think.

326
00:16:32.104 --> 00:16:34.805
Alphamin, 13.1% higher.

327
00:16:34.885 --> 00:16:37.006
Sabanier still water up 3.25%.

328
00:16:37.006 --> 00:16:39.607
Angla Golda Shanty up just over 3%.

329
00:16:39.947 --> 00:16:42.008
Tungela up 2.5%.

330
00:16:42.108 --> 00:16:47.590
On the downside, Nedcore, 4.75% on my
screen to the downside.

331
00:16:47.970 --> 00:16:49.831
South 32 down 4.5%.

332
00:16:49.831 --> 00:16:51.792
Sassel down 4.1%.

333
00:16:51.792 --> 00:16:54.493
And 91 down 3.5%.

334
00:16:54.673 --> 00:17:00.575
seven percent is 91 an xdiv story uh skull
uh let me quickly have my list

335
00:17:00.615 --> 00:17:07.458
yeah no no no it's not because i know it
was xdiv last week so it can't be no

336
00:17:07.538 --> 00:17:14.141
so just read the the the losers again um
netcore south 32 sassel and 91

337
00:17:14.501 --> 00:17:20.704
and php prop which we spoke about last
week which is on the upside doing

338
00:17:20.704 --> 00:17:22.704
something but anyway i've got those i've
got the four

339
00:17:22.704 --> 00:17:25.885
ones that you would recognize on the
downside what have you got you Ah, no.

340
00:17:26.186 --> 00:17:27.386
So none of those companies.

341
00:17:27.487 --> 00:17:30.729
It's only really some of the big companies
were Mr.

342
00:17:30.749 --> 00:17:37.554
Price, Ex-Lift Story, Bukili, and Life
Healthcare.

343
00:17:37.554 --> 00:17:38.454
Yeah, that's it.

344
00:17:39.275 --> 00:17:41.977
But the rest of the market was dead.

345
00:17:41.997 --> 00:17:45.880
I mean, we're talking about 11th of
December, so not a lot happening in the

346
00:17:45.880 --> 00:17:46.139
market.

347
00:17:46.139 --> 00:17:48.001
I think those were the two big ones.

348
00:17:48.261 --> 00:17:53.365
Okay, give us the indices and the trading
volume, the trading number, if you would.

349
00:17:54.173 --> 00:17:58.176
So, Jay-Z today closes at 87,116 points.

350
00:17:58.216 --> 00:18:00.257
It's down 0.18%.

351
00:18:00.577 --> 00:18:04.200
The top 40, 78,479 points.

352
00:18:04.280 --> 00:18:06.421
Also down 29 basis points.

353
00:18:06.481 --> 00:18:10.004
Resources, as you mentioned a little bit
earlier, looking a little bit better.

354
00:18:10.124 --> 00:18:16.748
They managed to keep themselves positive,
0.4% up, while industrials were pretty

355
00:18:16.748 --> 00:18:18.748
much unchanged for the day.

356
00:18:18.748 --> 00:18:23.353
Financials down 0.9%, while the SA
property index also down 0.5%.

357
00:18:23.373 --> 00:18:24.073
So...

358
00:18:24.437 --> 00:18:25.638
Not a bad day in general.

359
00:18:25.758 --> 00:18:30.221
I think 18.3 billion value traded for
today.

360
00:18:30.221 --> 00:18:35.584
I think if you look at that from a point
of view that it's the 11th of December,

361
00:18:35.784 --> 00:18:39.786
I think it's not too bad if we're still
flirting with that 20 billion this time of

362
00:18:39.786 --> 00:18:40.186
the year.

363
00:18:40.426 --> 00:18:41.427
Thank you so much for that.

364
00:18:41.567 --> 00:18:44.008
And thank you so much for your
contributions throughout the year.

365
00:18:44.168 --> 00:18:50.932
I get so much good feedback about you
because you're always in a good mood,

366
00:18:50.932 --> 00:18:52.932
whether the gold price is up or whether
the gold price is down or whether Nvidia

367
00:18:52.932 --> 00:18:54.932
is doing this or that.

368
00:18:54.932 --> 00:18:58.337
You're always very positive and you're
always very articulate in purveying what

369
00:18:58.337 --> 00:19:00.337
you think is going to happen.

370
00:19:00.337 --> 00:19:03.140
And hopefully next year we'll be able to
tap into you again, Skark.

371
00:19:03.601 --> 00:19:04.621
Are you off quite soon?

372
00:19:05.542 --> 00:19:06.242
Yeah, I am.

373
00:19:06.242 --> 00:19:12.347
No, no, it's I'm already starting to smell
the sea,

374
00:19:12.847 --> 00:19:14.849
the beach, the waves and those kind of
things.

375
00:19:14.849 --> 00:19:17.751
So we're getting close to it, but still
got some work to do.

376
00:19:17.831 --> 00:19:19.252
But, yeah, thank you very much, Lindsay.

377
00:19:19.252 --> 00:19:21.113
It was a wonderful, wonderful year.

378
00:19:21.481 --> 00:19:22.241
Thank you for having me.

379
00:19:22.241 --> 00:19:23.202
It's a pleasure.

380
00:19:23.542 --> 00:19:24.242
You're always welcome.

381
00:19:24.263 --> 00:19:25.483
Next year.

382
00:19:25.503 --> 00:19:26.203
More of the same.

383
00:19:26.203 --> 00:19:26.784
Indeed.

384
00:19:26.784 --> 00:19:33.067
And hopefully as good a year, albeit with
a few bumps here and there, as 2024.

385
00:19:33.107 --> 00:19:37.230
Scott Logue is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

386
00:19:37.630 --> 00:19:38.911
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

387
00:19:39.651 --> 00:19:46.615
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

388
00:19:46.615 --> 00:19:48.615
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

389
00:19:48.615 --> 00:19:50.357
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

390
00:19:50.673 --> 00:19:55.315
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

391
00:19:55.775 --> 00:20:02.737
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

392
00:20:02.737 --> 00:20:04.737
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

393
00:20:04.737 --> 00:20:08.219
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

394
00:20:08.219 --> 00:20:08.319
change,

395
00:20:08.499 --> 00:20:11.060
revision and rethinking at any time.

396
00:20:11.360 --> 00:20:13.781
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.