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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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Someone recently asked me to wrap up the
year 2024.

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So I thought about it and I looked at
various headlines, various publications,

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and the headlines that sort of screamed at
me were big tech and Bitcoin and chips

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makers and

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political change makers, etc.

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And I thought, well, everyone's doing
that.

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So I thought, well, let's have a look at
something a little bit.

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off the mainstream beaten track.

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And I found the Elsewhere in the form of
John Bickhardt,

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a portfolio manager responsible for the 91
Value Fund.

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He's with me now on the line from New
York.

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I don't want to call you Elsewhere, John,

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but you've been quietly going about your
business since you sent me something about

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May the 29th,

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which was the date of the South African
general election.

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Do you remember that piece that you put
out, a very brief piece?

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I remember it very clearly because that
was an omelette that we made for a whole

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year, basically,

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was buying South African shares ahead of
the election.

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So it was the most important thing we've
really done in the last five years.

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But you stuck your neck out, didn't you?

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Because that piece was met with scorn and
it was sort of a poo-poo.

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But goodness me, you've stuck it to them.

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Yeah, so it was one of those moments
where...

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Yeah.

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you know, you've got to make hay when the
sun shines.

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And it was, you know, my experience in
running the fund has been,

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and actually I've been running it nearly
25 years now.

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And if I go back, most of the money we've
made in the last 25 years can really be

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broken down into

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like four trades.

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So you only really get big opportunities
maybe every five years.

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And that was one of those big
opportunities when things get unbelievably

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cheap.

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when everyone hates it, when everyone's
completely out of it.

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And it's a very extreme situation.

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And when that happens, you've got to load
up as much as you can because you might

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have to wait another

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five years to get another opportunity like
that.

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And South Africa of a year ago was really,
was that moment.

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And as we spoke about six months ago, it
was the cheapest.

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it had ever been in absolute terms.

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It was the cheapest it had ever been
relative to the world.

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Foreigners had completely sold out of
South Africa.

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And even locals had massively reduced
their positions because of the Reg 28

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changes, which got them to take money out.

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So the way we look at it is valuation was
10 out of 10 positioning.

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That is how much people have bought and
sold was 9 out of 10.

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And as you say...

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The fact that when we put that piece out
in whatever it was, April, that there were

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a lot of people who said you're crazy.

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That was really the sign that you're on to
something good.

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When people feel confident enough to say
you're crazy, and the other word I like to

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look for is they say it's uninvestable.

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You know, when people in the market have
the confidence, especially in the media,

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to say X, Y, Z is uninvestable.

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You know, you only say that when you're
so, so sure.

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And when you're so, so sure, everyone's
sure.

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And everyone's positioned the same way.

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So that word is a word that really
attracts me.

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And at the moment, just as an aside,
there's one other country in the world

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that's currently uninvestable.

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Okay, we'll talk about China in a moment.

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Because of the recent, I mean, in the last
few days before we pre-recorded this

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podcast,

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there's been an enormous amount of
stimulus.

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being announced by the Chinese government.

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We'll come to that.

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But let's go back six months.

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You made a bet on South African politics,
didn't you?

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Yes.

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So, you know, detractors will say, oh, you
made a bet and you got lucky.

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And

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I think it's very true that the outcome
was lucky in that it was unbelievably

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good.

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But if I go back to where we were in
April, I'll still stick to the point

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that...

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The shares were sufficiently cheap that
even if things had gone badly in the

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election,

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that is MKEFF alignment with ANC,

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that we wouldn't have lost money because
the shares had already discounted that.

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And really, our base case was some sort of
bumble through where I think we would have

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made

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20%. But in the end, we did get lucky
that,

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and I know how close it was to not working
out so well.

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But the...

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The government of national unity was the
best case outcome and sometimes you get

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lucky with these things and

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you know the outcome was then South
African shares went up 40 to 50 percent in

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rand plus another five in dollars.

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So you know if you had a good South
African portfolio you've made 50 percent

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in dollars in six months so forget about
Nvidia and

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Bitcoin and everything.

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South African shares have beaten them all
because they were that cheap and I'll just

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go back to the thinking.

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The thinking is...

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The stock market is not about buying
things that everyone agrees with.

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It's about playing the odds.

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And the odds were 90-10 that there was
going to be a bad outcome in South Africa.

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That's what the market had priced in.

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And I always think the world is 50-50
because the future is basically unknown.

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So really all we were doing was just
playing the odds.

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And, you know, people who go and it's...

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People who go to racehorses, they know
that if you're playing odds, it's 90, 10,

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50, 50, there's an arbitrage there.

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And that's really all we're doing.

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And in the end, we actually got the 1090
outcome, which was the government of

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national unity.

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And that's when you make outsized returns.

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But even if there'd been a normal result,
let's say, which was a bumble through,

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you still would have made money on that
trade.

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Yeah, because of the valuations of the
stocks that we're going to talk about in a

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moment.

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But you're not overtly contrarian, are
you?

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You're not just saying, well, everyone
else says this, so I'm going to say that.

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That's not you.

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I mean, it may be a little bit just in the
back of your mind, John.

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Be honest.

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You want to be the contrarian, don't you?

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No.

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So because being a contrarian is where you
make the money.

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So you're right.

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So definitely the starting point is 100%
contrarian.

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So every idea that I get will be everyone
thinks this, so there could be an

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opportunity here.

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And then you go and look.

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at the valuation to see they really are as
cheap as they are and then you look at

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what could happen to unlock that valuation
and

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you know so being contrarian about buying
kodak say 15 years ago was not a clever

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thing because and i

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remember actually looking at kodak and
saying oh everyone hates kodak and

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then within half an hour looking at the
share you realize well everyone's negative

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because it is the end of the line

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and then that's that's no good you know
and to be honest Zimbabwe is an

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interesting thing,

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like to be contrarian and invest in
Zimbabwe now, but that's also a step too

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far.

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So just being blindly contrarian

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10%, 20% of the time is not going to work
out.

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You've got to take out that 10%, 15% of
contrarian bets.

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That's just not going to work because
actually people all agree with it, but

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unfortunately it's true.

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Okay.

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Let's talk about your positioning before.

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May the 29th and after

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May the 29th did it change or had you
positioned yourself for the government of

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national unity and the

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inflow of capital and the optimism that
ensued?

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So basically for a whole 12 or 18 months
prior to May we continually bought South

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African shares

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and we bought mainly the mid caps and the
small caps not the large caps so we didn't

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actually buy first ran.

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and Sunlum and Mr.

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Price, we bought the second liners like
Spa and Reunet, Netcare, Life Healthcare,

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because we thought they were cheaper,
which they were.

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And because we're not running 100 billion
rand, but a lesser amount, we can actually

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buy those shares.

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So, and I remember that year up to May is
that basically there were a lot of days

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that I

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felt like I was the only buyer in these
mid-cap shares because liquidity dried up

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on the JSC and everyone was negative.

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first about Eskim and then the election.

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And there were only sellers, so you could
really just sit on the bid and every day

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the shares went down another

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2% and you bought some more.

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So it took a whole year to build that
position.

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And we were then positioned, come May 29,
for a reasonable outcome.

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And the market thought it would be a bad
outcome and the rest is history.

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So come May 27...

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You know, the way to look at the JSE is
roughly half the JSE is South African

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shares, like shares exposed to South
Africa,

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and half are offshore ran hedges, like
Richemont and Naspers, and commodity

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shares.

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And when we got to the election,
basically, we've got 70% of the fund is in

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South Africa,

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30% is offshore, and of the 70s, 65% was
only in South African shares,

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and we had no ran hedges.

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We'd hedged out the currency and we had no
commodity shares.

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So we had a massive overweight position
and obviously that worked out.

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And so your question now, what did we do?

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So the answer is, as you would expect, in
the last six months, we gradually reduced

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that position.

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Your overweight position, which was such a
winning one for you.

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So what have you got into now?

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Which brings me neatly to my next
question, is your current positioning?

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Because you've done well and you're
sitting back with your feet up and saying,

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OK.

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I've done very, very well for my clients
at 91.

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Now, where do I go from here?

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And that is the big question.

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The next six months can completely destroy
your last six months or last year.

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So the first thing is obviously.

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I mean, and that's something we very, and
actually two weeks after election,

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I sat down and went through the top 10
shares and I objectively looked and said,

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these are the levels I want to sell it.

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You know, because the trouble is you get
sucked into, you know, market rises,

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everything's going up,

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you sort of forget to sell because you get
caught up in that.

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And so we've got, we had very strict sell
levels.

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So the truth is we've, we've probably sold
off the top of my head,

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70% of our overweight position.

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We've sold all the spars, all the roinets,
all the life health cares, half the net

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cares.

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We've sold all the electrons.

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So we've sold a lot and we've reduced
that.

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And that's very important because when
things go up 50%, obviously, you've got to

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have less of it than you had before.

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In some cases, we sold it all.

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And so that's a very important thing.

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We can't now give up the gains we made
because we've realized 70% of the profits.

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And then with the money.

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What we've been buying is quite
interesting because this is kind of a new

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idea, new as in a few months old.

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So I've looked at South Africa and I think
now, so that was the SA Inc.

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trade.

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And actually, if you look at the valuation
of SA Inc.

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now, especially the large cap shares,
First Rand, Mr.

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Price, Capitec, Clix, they are fully
valued in my opinion.

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They've all risen 40%. And if you look at
their valuations compared to long-term

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history.

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They're now in line to above where they
have been in the long term.

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So I'm not saying you can't still make
some money and there's going to be good

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earnings momentum as the economy improves
and there's price momentum in the shares.

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But this is a word that people don't, I
feel some people don't like it, the easy

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money.

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I think there is such a thing as easy
money in the stock market.

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The easy money has been made, which is
that first 50%.

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Hold those shares from here is going to
be, Things have to go well in South

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Africa, which they probably will,

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but it's not the same as nine months ago
because, you know, things didn't have to

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go well.

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Now they have to go well.

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So the risks are much higher.

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Okay, so what you're saying is the
government of national unity, which is a

236
00:12:20.635 --> 00:12:22.635
lovely idea, and it's a great word and
everything,

237
00:12:22.635 --> 00:12:22.937
and the whole world says, look at South
Africa again.

238
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It's the rainbow nation, and we're going
to have a look at it.

239
00:12:25.578 --> 00:12:26.358
You've had a look at it.

240
00:12:26.479 --> 00:12:30.961
You've made money out of it for your
clients at 91, but now comes the real.

241
00:12:31.305 --> 00:12:32.005
work.

242
00:12:32.005 --> 00:12:32.846
It's like Syria today.

243
00:12:32.866 --> 00:12:34.548
I mean, I don't want to bring politics
into it.

244
00:12:34.788 --> 00:12:38.291
But Syria says, we've got rid of this
barbaric regime.

245
00:12:38.551 --> 00:12:40.533
And now we're going to celebrate a bit.

246
00:12:40.793 --> 00:12:42.294
But the hard work starts.

247
00:12:42.594 --> 00:12:44.996
And with South African stocks, the hard
work starts now.

248
00:12:45.256 --> 00:12:46.117
That's my opinion.

249
00:12:46.818 --> 00:12:47.518
Yes.

250
00:12:47.518 --> 00:12:50.240
And the big thing is, I mean,

251
00:12:50.501 --> 00:12:57.246
I personally think the GNU will hold for
the next three or four years and that the

252
00:12:57.246 --> 00:12:59.246
economy will recover and everything will
go

253
00:12:59.246 --> 00:13:01.246
well.

254
00:13:01.246 --> 00:13:03.246
But the point is, if I'm wrong about that.

255
00:13:03.246 --> 00:13:05.246
there is downside.

256
00:13:05.246 --> 00:13:08.749
And whereas in April, if I was wrong about
that, there was no downside.

257
00:13:08.769 --> 00:13:12.731
And the first and most important thing is
to take out the downside.

258
00:13:12.832 --> 00:13:15.953
And so we basically moved on a lot from
that.

259
00:13:16.173 --> 00:13:22.237
And the next thing that we bought is what
I would call the second derivative of the

260
00:13:22.237 --> 00:13:22.277
SA Inc.

261
00:13:22.317 --> 00:13:23.017
trade.

262
00:13:23.017 --> 00:13:29.101
So if you think the financial and
industrials have rallied as bond yields

263
00:13:29.101 --> 00:13:31.101
have fallen in South Africa and...

264
00:13:31.101 --> 00:13:36.706
as the outlook for economic growth has
improved and the basically the shares

265
00:13:36.706 --> 00:13:38.706
valuations have moved back to the
long-term average

266
00:13:38.706 --> 00:13:43.390
so that's great but the one area of the
market that looks interesting to me are

267
00:13:43.390 --> 00:13:45.390
south african commodity

268
00:13:45.390 --> 00:13:48.694
companies that is not anglos and bulletin
which are not south african commodity but

269
00:13:48.754 --> 00:13:55.458
commodity companies based in south africa
that have has suffered in the last five

270
00:13:55.458 --> 00:13:57.458
years because of the poor

271
00:13:57.458 --> 00:14:01.202
logistics in south africa for example
because for example There are three stocks

272
00:14:01.202 --> 00:14:03.202
that we have, Exaro,

273
00:14:03.202 --> 00:14:03.483
African Rainbow Minerals, and Tungela.

274
00:14:04.463 --> 00:14:06.924
So these produce manganese iron ore and
coal,

275
00:14:07.824 --> 00:14:12.586
and they have lost significant volumes
because of the rail and port situation.

276
00:14:13.267 --> 00:14:20.069
And if you like the improving South
Africa, I think the second derivative of

277
00:14:20.069 --> 00:14:22.069
that trade is in these stocks, which have
not,

278
00:14:22.069 --> 00:14:26.152
in fact, they have fallen since in the
last six months because people don't want

279
00:14:26.152 --> 00:14:28.152
ran hedges.

280
00:14:28.152 --> 00:14:28.413
Anyone's busy buying first rand.

281
00:14:29.909 --> 00:14:33.650
These shares are actually lower than where
they are on unbelievably low valuations.

282
00:14:33.650 --> 00:14:37.491
We're talking 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% dividend
yields.

283
00:14:38.272 --> 00:14:41.312
Three times, four times cash flow is what
they trade on.

284
00:14:42.133 --> 00:14:44.493
They're selling iron ore, manganese, and
coal.

285
00:14:44.893 --> 00:14:47.734
And the prices of those commodities are
somewhat depressed.

286
00:14:47.854 --> 00:14:51.235
They're not right at the bottom, but
they're close to the bottom of the top.

287
00:14:52.195 --> 00:14:57.157
But most importantly, they're going to
benefit as South African logistics

288
00:14:57.157 --> 00:14:59.157
improve.

289
00:14:59.157 --> 00:15:01.157
As...

290
00:15:01.157 --> 00:15:02.562
And I think that, if you like, Transnate
is where Eskimo was three years ago.

291
00:15:05.455 --> 00:15:09.959
The SA government has already made a
momentous change as in outsourcing

292
00:15:10.599 --> 00:15:14.963
70% of the Durban Harbour to a foreign
company, a logistics company,

293
00:15:15.744 --> 00:15:22.530
which I think the market doesn't
appreciate what a change that is to have

294
00:15:22.530 --> 00:15:24.530
public-private partnerships in logistics
in

295
00:15:24.530 --> 00:15:26.530
South Africa.

296
00:15:26.530 --> 00:15:30.297
So what I'm saying is these companies are
on very attractive valuations and in my

297
00:15:30.297 --> 00:15:32.297
opinion in the next three

298
00:15:32.297 --> 00:15:34.297
years their volumes are going to improve.

299
00:15:34.297 --> 00:15:37.280
through the railway lines, through the
iron ore railway line and the coal railway

300
00:15:37.280 --> 00:15:39.280
line, the ports are going to get better.

301
00:15:39.280 --> 00:15:44.743
And even if the metal prices don't move
up, the extra volumes that they will get

302
00:15:44.743 --> 00:15:46.743
will result in earnings.

303
00:15:46.743 --> 00:15:51.826
What you've got here is a domestic
situation in South Africa whereby

304
00:15:51.826 --> 00:15:53.826
logistics hopefully start

305
00:15:53.826 --> 00:15:56.908
to become a more important part of the
companies that you've spoken about.

306
00:15:57.168 --> 00:15:58.969
It becomes an important part of their
lives.

307
00:15:58.969 --> 00:16:00.690
In other words, they can get their stuff.

308
00:16:00.890 --> 00:16:01.810
out of the country.

309
00:16:02.211 --> 00:16:04.872
But the other thing is, of course, is the
international aspect.

310
00:16:05.132 --> 00:16:08.373
And you mentioned it earlier, and you
mentioned the word uninvestable.

311
00:16:08.773 --> 00:16:11.755
And then you said the country's name, and
it was China.

312
00:16:12.135 --> 00:16:13.195
Please tell me about that.

313
00:16:13.975 --> 00:16:20.258
So the good thing about this commodity
trade is I actually, I don't think China

314
00:16:20.258 --> 00:16:22.258
has to do much better.

315
00:16:22.258 --> 00:16:25.880
So as it happens, most of the coal
actually goes to India, but the iron ore

316
00:16:25.880 --> 00:16:27.880
and the manganese does go to China.

317
00:16:27.880 --> 00:16:29.142
So if China had to completely collapse,
this would be a problem.

318
00:16:29.302 --> 00:16:34.762
But It doesn't need to do incredibly well
because the price of all three of those

319
00:16:34.762 --> 00:16:36.762
metals is low already.

320
00:16:36.762 --> 00:16:40.426
So all we need is China to bumble through,
and I think those metals are hanging

321
00:16:40.426 --> 00:16:40.806
around.

322
00:16:40.806 --> 00:16:47.152
So in buying those three shares, if the
metal prices were the same as they are

323
00:16:47.152 --> 00:16:49.152
today in three years'time,

324
00:16:49.152 --> 00:16:50.234
that would be sufficient for me to still
make the investment case.

325
00:16:50.735 --> 00:16:54.337
So it's not really a pro-China bet.

326
00:16:54.478 --> 00:16:59.742
It's more a very cheap valuations and a
bet that...

327
00:17:00.510 --> 00:17:03.691
Things will get better at Transnet rather
than worse.

328
00:17:03.711 --> 00:17:05.812
And by the way, we've seen some green
shoots already.

329
00:17:05.892 --> 00:17:08.792
There's been no real improvement on the
iron ore line.

330
00:17:08.832 --> 00:17:14.854
But on the coal line, interestingly, the
last three months, before any significant

331
00:17:14.854 --> 00:17:16.854
outsourcing,

332
00:17:16.854 --> 00:17:19.696
volumes are up 15% on that line to
Richards Bay off a very low base.

333
00:17:19.736 --> 00:17:23.217
But that's the first time coal volumes
have improved in five years.

334
00:17:23.397 --> 00:17:27.658
So I think we've hit the bottom, and
that's the most important thing.

335
00:17:28.254 --> 00:17:32.857
As a fund manager, just as a very quick
aside, do you speak to government and you

336
00:17:32.857 --> 00:17:34.857
say, look,

337
00:17:34.857 --> 00:17:39.762
I'm invested in South Africa and I want to
know what the logistic situation is, what

338
00:17:39.762 --> 00:17:41.762
is happening with Transnet, etc.

339
00:17:41.762 --> 00:17:41.983
Do you go through that due diligence?

340
00:17:43.825 --> 00:17:49.028
So the data is quite easy to get with a
month or two lag.

341
00:17:49.108 --> 00:17:54.572
So we look at the data all the time of the
volumes through Transnet and we look at

342
00:17:54.572 --> 00:17:54.952
that.

343
00:17:54.952 --> 00:17:57.334
And then obviously, I mean, a month, six
weeks ago.

344
00:17:58.166 --> 00:18:02.567
The whole South African delegation came
through New York, and I did go and listen

345
00:18:02.567 --> 00:18:04.567
to their stories.

346
00:18:04.567 --> 00:18:07.549
And the Minister of Electricity was there,
and the head of Transnet was there.

347
00:18:08.229 --> 00:18:14.851
And, I mean, it's a one-hour presentation,
but you can get a feeling for, you know,

348
00:18:14.851 --> 00:18:16.851
do they have a plan?

349
00:18:16.851 --> 00:18:17.712
Does it look like it's got a reasonable
chance?

350
00:18:18.712 --> 00:18:23.253
And I came away from those meetings
thinking they have a plan and they have a

351
00:18:23.253 --> 00:18:25.253
reasonable chance.

352
00:18:25.253 --> 00:18:25.834
And the important thing is to go back to
it.

353
00:18:26.314 --> 00:18:27.876
similar to the South African thing.

354
00:18:27.916 --> 00:18:31.438
The share prices say they've got no
chance.

355
00:18:33.780 --> 00:18:34.541
That's the gap.

356
00:18:35.642 --> 00:18:38.404
It's not that people are actually thinking
they have a chance.

357
00:18:39.965 --> 00:18:45.190
The truth is, if the volumes don't
improve, I don't think you'll lose money

358
00:18:45.190 --> 00:18:47.190
in shares like Xero and African Rainbow.

359
00:18:47.190 --> 00:18:52.436
But if they do get it right, those
dividend yields can go from 10-11% to 6%.

360
00:18:52.496 --> 00:18:54.117
That means you double your money.

361
00:18:55.538 --> 00:18:56.599
Very compelling argument.

362
00:18:56.979 --> 00:18:58.180
You've still got ABSA there, haven't you?

363
00:18:58.600 --> 00:19:00.322
Is that still your big holding, ABSA?

364
00:19:00.542 --> 00:19:01.242
Yes.

365
00:19:01.242 --> 00:19:05.525
So the biggest three holdings in the fund
are ABSA, 10%, ACI,

366
00:19:05.605 --> 00:19:10.469
which is kind of a very specific South
African situation, which incidentally

367
00:19:10.469 --> 00:19:12.469
hasn't risen a cent since

368
00:19:12.469 --> 00:19:16.253
10% in ACI, and 10% in XRNL.

369
00:19:16.513 --> 00:19:20.436
So the portfolio is quite different to six
months ago.

370
00:19:20.877 --> 00:19:22.498
Those three, we might have had...

371
00:19:22.814 --> 00:19:27.337
three or four in abso nothing in acr
nothing sorry so that gives you an idea of

372
00:19:27.337 --> 00:19:29.337
how much we change so

373
00:19:29.337 --> 00:19:34.641
30 of the portfolio is just in those three
shares which those are our best three

374
00:19:34.641 --> 00:19:36.641
ideas at the moment and abso you see is
finally

375
00:19:36.641 --> 00:19:42.385
got going on you know there's another
example of their their trading update of a

376
00:19:42.385 --> 00:19:44.385
week ago you

377
00:19:44.385 --> 00:19:49.349
know it wasn't brilliant but it was the
share price went up six percent it wasn't

378
00:19:49.349 --> 00:19:51.349
brilliant but look how sensitive is it is
to the upside john

379
00:19:51.349 --> 00:19:55.730
yeah and actually in the last week it's
gone up 13% because it was so hated.

380
00:19:55.850 --> 00:19:59.354
And so people looked at it and said, well,
it's not so bad.

381
00:20:00.115 --> 00:20:01.456
It's bad, but it's not so bad.

382
00:20:01.536 --> 00:20:04.960
And it was, if you can believe, Abster was
like...

383
00:20:05.412 --> 00:20:08.074
40% behind the other banks over the last
year.

384
00:20:08.935 --> 00:20:10.316
It was almost like it wasn't a bank.

385
00:20:11.497 --> 00:20:17.882
So we've got the one bank still absent,
which is, you know, it's really not enough

386
00:20:17.882 --> 00:20:19.882
closer to fair value,

387
00:20:19.882 --> 00:20:19.944
but it's still on a 7% of the yield.

388
00:20:19.984 --> 00:20:21.625
So there's no real reason to sell.

389
00:20:22.346 --> 00:20:23.046
Very good.

390
00:20:23.046 --> 00:20:28.811
Now, John, when you go to bed and you
listen to the traffic on the Upper West

391
00:20:28.811 --> 00:20:30.811
Side of New York City,

392
00:20:30.811 --> 00:20:31.894
is there anything that keeps you awake
apart from the traffic?

393
00:20:34.936 --> 00:20:40.860
I think the only thing it keeps, there's
not much in South Africa because the

394
00:20:40.860 --> 00:20:42.860
valuations are,

395
00:20:42.860 --> 00:20:46.484
I think internationally there are some
boring signs that, and it's not

396
00:20:46.484 --> 00:20:48.484
geopolitics,

397
00:20:48.484 --> 00:20:49.146
I think it's just the valuation of the
U.S.

398
00:20:49.226 --> 00:20:51.308
market is absolutely crazy.

399
00:20:51.568 --> 00:20:52.889
And the U.S.

400
00:20:52.929 --> 00:20:54.890
is 70% of the world index now.

401
00:20:55.491 --> 00:20:59.373
And so many people run money overseas or
have their money invested overseas.

402
00:20:59.393 --> 00:21:02.956
They will land up, you know, if you take
your money offshore and you give it to...

403
00:21:03.156 --> 00:21:06.679
a manager, 70% of your money will find its
way into the US market.

404
00:21:06.739 --> 00:21:12.103
And the valuation is crazily high and the
West is really bankrupt.

405
00:21:12.964 --> 00:21:15.906
And I don't think inflation is dead.

406
00:21:15.966 --> 00:21:17.027
I think it's coming back.

407
00:21:17.348 --> 00:21:20.770
And, you know, so that's what would worry
me.

408
00:21:21.551 --> 00:21:23.152
But I'm not really invested in those.

409
00:21:23.212 --> 00:21:30.018
But there is a it feels and the exuberance
we've seen since Trump's election has

410
00:21:30.078 --> 00:21:34.864
just taken a very expensive market to
crazy and the crypto I mean, what I'm

411
00:21:34.864 --> 00:21:35.223
saying,

412
00:21:35.223 --> 00:21:41.036
that level of speculation in offshore
markets in things like crypto and tech is

413
00:21:41.216 --> 00:21:42.037
unprecedented.

414
00:21:42.098 --> 00:21:42.798
And that's what...

415
00:21:43.320 --> 00:21:44.582
Well, if something happens...

416
00:21:45.776 --> 00:21:51.498
Along the lines of the two asset classes
that you've just mentioned, then that

417
00:21:51.498 --> 00:21:53.498
probably plays into your hands long term.

418
00:21:53.498 --> 00:21:53.959
Short term, of course, everyone will
suffer.

419
00:21:53.979 --> 00:21:55.960
But anyway, let's not speculate on that.

420
00:21:56.000 --> 00:21:58.501
That's for another interview in the
future.

421
00:21:58.981 --> 00:22:00.342
John, thank you very much for your time.

422
00:22:00.442 --> 00:22:01.242
Great insight.

423
00:22:01.322 --> 00:22:06.244
John Bickard is portfolio manager
responsible for the 91 Value Fund.

424
00:22:07.165 --> 00:22:14.108
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

425
00:22:14.108 --> 00:22:16.108
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

426
00:22:16.108 --> 00:22:18.625
position, or opinion of any other agency,
organization, employer,

427
00:22:18.965 --> 00:22:22.806
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

428
00:22:23.266 --> 00:22:30.227
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

429
00:22:30.227 --> 00:22:32.227
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

430
00:22:32.227 --> 00:22:36.408
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

431
00:22:36.408 --> 00:22:38.408
change, revision,

432
00:22:38.408 --> 00:22:38.549
and rethinking at any time.

433
00:22:38.869 --> 00:22:41.269
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.