WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:05.707
You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

2
00:00:05.707 --> 00:00:09.109
JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

3
00:00:09.129 --> 00:00:12.431
And as it's a Wednesday, as always, I
speak to Skullclo,

4
00:00:12.771 --> 00:00:16.353
Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in
Cape Town.

5
00:00:16.733 --> 00:00:22.216
Here we are on the verge of a long weekend
in the United States, essentially, because

6
00:00:22.216 --> 00:00:24.216
tomorrow is Thanksgiving.

7
00:00:24.216 --> 00:00:26.159
Now, I forgive all legions of American
listeners.

8
00:00:26.819 --> 00:00:28.540
I don't really know what Thanksgiving is,
Skull.

9
00:00:28.864 --> 00:00:30.265
What are they giving thanks for again?

10
00:00:30.405 --> 00:00:31.125
Can you remind me?

11
00:00:31.165 --> 00:00:34.626
Something to do with the founding fathers
or the people that settled in America?

12
00:00:35.127 --> 00:00:35.827
What is it?

13
00:00:37.007 --> 00:00:38.128
Yeah, you got me there.

14
00:00:38.448 --> 00:00:39.148
Exactly.

15
00:00:39.628 --> 00:00:40.689
You got me there.

16
00:00:40.689 --> 00:00:44.410
I just noticed they eat a lot of turkey.

17
00:00:44.750 --> 00:00:45.450
Yeah.

18
00:00:45.450 --> 00:00:46.511
And yeah.

19
00:00:46.571 --> 00:00:49.252
Hormone injected things from Walmart and
places like that.

20
00:00:49.332 --> 00:00:50.032
Yeah.

21
00:00:50.413 --> 00:00:51.113
Yeah.

22
00:00:51.113 --> 00:00:53.594
So I think that you've got two versions
now.

23
00:00:54.654 --> 00:00:58.376
It's a Thanksgiving version and then the
Thanksgiving.

24
00:00:58.616 --> 00:01:05.581
version apparently and the latter is just
those uh people that you know decided not

25
00:01:05.581 --> 00:01:12.446
to eat any any uh what's it animal
products so yeah well

26
00:01:13.126 --> 00:01:18.430
i i've got no no problem with that but i
know yeah i wish people would just keep it

27
00:01:18.430 --> 00:01:20.430
to themselves

28
00:01:20.430 --> 00:01:23.673
why do you have to tell everybody it's
like people that write motivational books

29
00:01:23.673 --> 00:01:23.913
i

30
00:01:23.913 --> 00:01:28.744
have to tell everybody if you're motivated
that's great but i don't want to Hey,

31
00:01:28.744 --> 00:01:35.689
I read a book that tells me the first
thing I must do in the morning is make my

32
00:01:35.689 --> 00:01:37.689
bed because it's good discipline and I
must meditate for half an hour at

33
00:01:37.689 --> 00:01:39.689
lunchtime

34
00:01:39.689 --> 00:01:41.689
and that sort of thing.

35
00:01:41.689 --> 00:01:43.689
Very good idea for you, not necessarily
for me.

36
00:01:43.689 --> 00:01:45.689
Scott, what happened on the market today?

37
00:01:45.689 --> 00:01:47.689
Sorry, that was a very interesting intro.

38
00:01:47.689 --> 00:01:51.601
I think with the anticipation of
Thanksgiving and also the market is going

39
00:01:51.601 --> 00:01:53.601
to be quiet,

40
00:01:53.601 --> 00:01:55.764
I do get this feeling there's sort of a
lacklustreness.

41
00:01:56.124 --> 00:01:56.885
today in the markets.

42
00:01:56.965 --> 00:01:59.687
I mean, we've had quite a bit of movement
lately.

43
00:02:00.668 --> 00:02:04.351
We had Trump come out two days ago.

44
00:02:04.411 --> 00:02:06.533
What was it yesterday?

45
00:02:06.573 --> 00:02:07.273
Yeah, two days ago.

46
00:02:07.353 --> 00:02:12.497
We're now starting to draw these lines in
the sand, which

47
00:02:14.079 --> 00:02:19.423
I found interesting because we know the
first speech is only 20 January.

48
00:02:20.564 --> 00:02:22.666
So that's quite a bit of time to go.

49
00:02:22.666 --> 00:02:25.047
And he's already went like, that's it.

50
00:02:26.168 --> 00:02:32.532
Mexico, Canada, prepare yourself, you're
going to be tariffed at 25%.

51
00:02:33.092 --> 00:02:34.373
Yeah, and that's NAFTA, isn't it?

52
00:02:34.413 --> 00:02:39.055
North American Free Trade Association is
those three countries.

53
00:02:39.055 --> 00:02:42.817
The United States of America, obviously,
Canada, yes, and Mexico.

54
00:02:43.418 --> 00:02:47.580
And he doesn't like that, and I don't know
why he doesn't like it, because as far as

55
00:02:47.580 --> 00:02:47.820
I know,

56
00:02:47.820 --> 00:02:53.283
with my limited trade geopolitical
knowledge, I think it's done rather well.

57
00:02:54.564 --> 00:02:55.264
Yeah.

58
00:02:55.424 --> 00:02:56.124
I think so too.

59
00:02:56.505 --> 00:03:02.569
And we saw the after effect yesterday
because yesterday, I'll look when we're

60
00:03:02.569 --> 00:03:04.569
sort of in it,

61
00:03:04.569 --> 00:03:05.271
but yesterday,

62
00:03:05.351 --> 00:03:12.256
the likes of the Volkswagen's and the
BMW's and those share prices really took a

63
00:03:12.536 --> 00:03:15.178
almighty beating in the market.

64
00:03:16.819 --> 00:03:20.841
And purely on the back of these now tariff
talks.

65
00:03:21.602 --> 00:03:24.484
And I think it's really early days.

66
00:03:25.513 --> 00:03:31.978
I don't think, and I can see today the
likes of Volkswagen down again, but

67
00:03:31.978 --> 00:03:33.978
yesterday was really hammered.

68
00:03:33.978 --> 00:03:35.901
And I don't know, I think one should
really just be,

69
00:03:38.043 --> 00:03:41.786
take a deep breath and let's just get over
the Christmas season.

70
00:03:41.827 --> 00:03:47.071
Because how I think this is going to go,
it's not necessarily how it's going to go,

71
00:03:47.231 --> 00:03:52.636
but people thinking that now the likes of
the Volkswagens...

72
00:03:53.184 --> 00:03:59.809
BMWs and Stellantis and all these European
brands are going to be hit with a lot of

73
00:03:59.809 --> 00:03:59.988
tariffs.

74
00:04:00.429 --> 00:04:06.514
Need to just be mindful that as much as
America is importing these European

75
00:04:06.514 --> 00:04:08.514
brands,

76
00:04:08.514 --> 00:04:10.514
they're also exporting.

77
00:04:10.514 --> 00:04:13.298
They're exporting the likes of Ford and GM
and those type of cars.

78
00:04:13.298 --> 00:04:19.043
So, why don't you just, I think, just be
sort of, just take a deep breath.

79
00:04:19.423 --> 00:04:20.424
Let's just get through this market.

80
00:04:20.444 --> 00:04:21.144
And I.

81
00:04:21.224 --> 00:04:27.570
Back to your first question, I get the
feeling today is sort of that, oh, wait a

82
00:04:27.570 --> 00:04:29.570
minute, let's just sit down,

83
00:04:29.570 --> 00:04:31.453
get through Thanksgiving, get through
Christmas, and let's see where this goes.

84
00:04:31.573 --> 00:04:38.499
The wording of his tariff threats, which
he spouted the whole time he was on the

85
00:04:38.499 --> 00:04:40.499
campaign trail for the presidency,

86
00:04:40.499 --> 00:04:43.443
which, of course, we know he won quite
convincingly, he talked about it,

87
00:04:43.443 --> 00:04:49.088
but then the wording of yesterday's
announcement, you know, 25% here, there,

88
00:04:49.088 --> 00:04:51.088
and then China will come.

89
00:04:51.088 --> 00:04:52.606
It was almost as though he was wielding an
axe as a threat.

90
00:04:52.666 --> 00:04:54.968
The axe, it may not come down.

91
00:04:55.268 --> 00:04:58.610
And it was almost as though he was saying
to Mexico, for example,

92
00:04:59.131 --> 00:05:05.215
if you tighten up your border controls in
conjunction with my new border czar, as

93
00:05:05.215 --> 00:05:07.215
they call him,

94
00:05:07.215 --> 00:05:08.277
then we'll review the situation.

95
00:05:08.557 --> 00:05:10.138
He's sort of threatening, in other words.

96
00:05:10.158 --> 00:05:14.081
He's a dangling carrot and threatening at
the same time, as only Donald Trump can

97
00:05:14.081 --> 00:05:14.501
do.

98
00:05:14.501 --> 00:05:15.502
So maybe it's that.

99
00:05:16.003 --> 00:05:16.703
I don't know.

100
00:05:17.003 --> 00:05:17.924
It's very interesting.

101
00:05:18.975 --> 00:05:19.675
I agree.

102
00:05:20.996 --> 00:05:25.837
It's really exactly as you said, because
2016, Trump came in and says,

103
00:05:26.397 --> 00:05:28.798
we're going to build a beautiful wall.

104
00:05:28.838 --> 00:05:29.958
And Mexico is going to pay for it.

105
00:05:30.858 --> 00:05:32.119
And Mexico is going to pay for it.

106
00:05:32.399 --> 00:05:37.620
And he realized, I think the sort of the
Trump 1.0 realized this is going to be

107
00:05:37.620 --> 00:05:39.620
this is going to be

108
00:05:39.620 --> 00:05:39.861
difficult and it's going to be expensive.

109
00:05:40.541 --> 00:05:42.922
Now, he just went like I said, well, we're
going to slap you.

110
00:05:42.922 --> 00:05:44.982
We're going to slap you with 25 percent
tariffs.

111
00:05:45.642 --> 00:05:47.523
And remember, his wording was was.

112
00:05:47.903 --> 00:05:48.844
He's going to start now.

113
00:05:50.565 --> 00:05:52.987
Day one, he said, more or less.

114
00:05:54.168 --> 00:05:58.431
On January 20th, and now I'm actually
quoting him, on January

115
00:05:58.931 --> 00:06:02.514
20th, as one of my many first executive
orders,

116
00:06:02.814 --> 00:06:08.258
I will sign all necessary documents to
charge Mexico and Canada

117
00:06:08.779 --> 00:06:12.322
25% tariffs on all products coming into
the United States.

118
00:06:13.542 --> 00:06:14.242
And it's ridiculous.

119
00:06:14.243 --> 00:06:14.943
Ridiculous.

120
00:06:14.963 --> 00:06:16.204
I can actually hear him say that.

121
00:06:16.464 --> 00:06:18.805
And it's ridiculous open borders.

122
00:06:19.165 --> 00:06:20.205
And here's the very important point.

123
00:06:20.225 --> 00:06:24.747
The terrorists will remain in effect until
such time as the drugs, in particular

124
00:06:24.747 --> 00:06:26.747
phenol,

125
00:06:26.747 --> 00:06:29.089
and all these illegal aliens stop this
invasion into our country.

126
00:06:30.730 --> 00:06:31.670
Bribery, in other words.

127
00:06:31.750 --> 00:06:32.450
Quid pro quo.

128
00:06:32.450 --> 00:06:33.030
There we go.

129
00:06:33.030 --> 00:06:36.612
And we know the Mexican president already
turned around and said, well,

130
00:06:36.952 --> 00:06:43.775
he's going to do everything in his power
to immediately start addressing these

131
00:06:43.775 --> 00:06:45.775
illegal aliens.

132
00:06:45.775 --> 00:06:47.917
migrating towards, you will put, hey,
that's better than the wall.

133
00:06:48.097 --> 00:06:54.981
I mean, now you're sitting with both
Canada and Mexico stating, and they're

134
00:06:54.981 --> 00:06:56.981
going to do pretty much everything in
their power to get this

135
00:06:56.981 --> 00:07:02.025
addressed because, man, 25% is a hell of a
lot if you suddenly… It's not just the

136
00:07:02.025 --> 00:07:04.025
companies that are impacted,

137
00:07:04.025 --> 00:07:06.025
of course.

138
00:07:06.025 --> 00:07:07.928
It's the person that buys something that
comes from Mexico, whether it be, I don't

139
00:07:07.928 --> 00:07:08.348
know,

140
00:07:09.429 --> 00:07:11.310
a vegetable product or something like
that.

141
00:07:11.650 --> 00:07:13.891
Suddenly, if it costs… $5.

142
00:07:14.432 --> 00:07:16.773
It now costs, and this is where my maths
comes, 25.

143
00:07:16.773 --> 00:07:17.914
What's a quarter of five?

144
00:07:18.214 --> 00:07:19.355
Anyway, it's a lot.

145
00:07:19.695 --> 00:07:21.617
It impacts you across the board.

146
00:07:21.617 --> 00:07:23.378
You don't know 120 or something like that.

147
00:07:23.398 --> 00:07:24.098
I don't know.

148
00:07:24.098 --> 00:07:25.159
But yeah, exactly, 120.

149
00:07:25.539 --> 00:07:27.681
So yeah, he plays dirty, Trump.

150
00:07:27.861 --> 00:07:30.202
But if it's effective, then good on him.

151
00:07:30.262 --> 00:07:32.224
I mean, I'll never like him.

152
00:07:32.264 --> 00:07:33.945
But if it works, then that's good.

153
00:07:34.185 --> 00:07:37.607
I'll tell you what has worked as well,
which must have really irritated Trump,

154
00:07:38.088 --> 00:07:42.871
is Joe Biden coming up with the minimum of
60 days ceasefire should it hold.

155
00:07:43.195 --> 00:07:47.878
between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon,
which is a really good step in the right

156
00:07:47.878 --> 00:07:47.917
direction.

157
00:07:48.218 --> 00:07:51.980
If only Gaza could have been included as
well, but it hasn't.

158
00:07:52.560 --> 00:07:58.644
And so long may it continue, long may the
slaughters continue, and away we go from

159
00:07:58.644 --> 00:07:59.004
there.

160
00:07:59.004 --> 00:08:05.568
But Trump must be gnashing his teeth
because he wanted to get the glory of

161
00:08:05.568 --> 00:08:07.568
putting something like that in place in
January or starting

162
00:08:07.568 --> 00:08:09.568
in January.

163
00:08:09.568 --> 00:08:13.813
Well, at least now there's maybe some
possibility because He could actually come

164
00:08:13.813 --> 00:08:15.813
in as president and do, what did he say?

165
00:08:15.813 --> 00:08:16.975
He's going to stop this war within 24
hours.

166
00:08:17.496 --> 00:08:18.756
Well, that's the Ukraine war.

167
00:08:18.816 --> 00:08:20.758
Yeah, I mean, that's something completely
different.

168
00:08:21.158 --> 00:08:22.339
I mean, I could stop the war.

169
00:08:22.359 --> 00:08:23.139
I'd just go to Mr.

170
00:08:23.179 --> 00:08:25.801
Putin and say, listen, you can have what
you've taken.

171
00:08:25.841 --> 00:08:27.462
Let's just get on with our lives again.

172
00:08:27.783 --> 00:08:29.244
That's the easy way to stop it.

173
00:08:29.264 --> 00:08:33.226
Or to say to Putin, you know, your state
is falling apart.

174
00:08:33.727 --> 00:08:37.169
And on that note, Skalk, what did you see
about Gazprom Bank today?

175
00:08:37.469 --> 00:08:38.570
What did you see about that?

176
00:08:38.590 --> 00:08:39.871
You saw the story or not?

177
00:08:40.735 --> 00:08:41.776
No, I missed that one.

178
00:08:42.456 --> 00:08:46.377
I was out and about today presenting and I
must say I missed that one.

179
00:08:46.498 --> 00:08:52.000
Okay, there was a new hashtag on X and it
was Russia bank collapse.

180
00:08:52.400 --> 00:08:56.142
And I thought, it doesn't seem as though
the markets are particularly perturbed by

181
00:08:56.142 --> 00:08:56.441
this.

182
00:08:56.682 --> 00:09:02.604
And what the US has done is imposed very,
very strict sanctions on Gazprom bank.

183
00:09:02.924 --> 00:09:08.647
And we know what Gazprom is and they've
got a bank as well, which seems logical to

184
00:09:08.647 --> 00:09:10.647
fund all their various activities.

185
00:09:10.647 --> 00:09:14.075
And the ruble went to its lowest level
since the invasion of Ukraine.

186
00:09:14.636 --> 00:09:17.298
And people were saying, oh, well, this is
the end.

187
00:09:17.498 --> 00:09:21.442
The economy is going to collapse and this
will be the downfall of Putin.

188
00:09:21.822 --> 00:09:25.665
And I looked at the gold price and, OK,
it's done OK today, hasn't it?

189
00:09:25.665 --> 00:09:30.569
It's up $23 on my screen, up close to a
percent.

190
00:09:31.110 --> 00:09:35.213
I don't know if that's geopolitically
related or US dollar related.

191
00:09:35.273 --> 00:09:37.035
Looks like US dollar related to me.

192
00:09:37.515 --> 00:09:42.719
with the euro about, what, points,
two-thirds of a percent higher.

193
00:09:43.180 --> 00:09:48.724
But it's one of those days, Skelke, I
think, where lots of things are going on,

194
00:09:48.724 --> 00:09:50.724
and yet nothing really is, if you see what
I mean.

195
00:09:50.724 --> 00:09:52.724
No, no, no, exactly.

196
00:09:52.724 --> 00:09:54.724
We can, you know, the dollar index as
well.

197
00:09:54.724 --> 00:09:56.724
Dollar index down 60 basis points.

198
00:09:56.724 --> 00:10:00.454
That's, I would say, you know, looking
towards the gold prices, sort of giving

199
00:10:00.454 --> 00:10:02.454
you most of the answers.

200
00:10:02.454 --> 00:10:04.237
But, yeah, like I said, not a lot
happening in the market.

201
00:10:05.999 --> 00:10:06.699
Do I?

202
00:10:06.699 --> 00:10:09.448
think that a lot's going to happen during
December?

203
00:10:09.528 --> 00:10:10.330
Yes, I do think so.

204
00:10:10.370 --> 00:10:14.643
I still firmly believe we're going to have
a really exciting

205
00:10:15.179 --> 00:10:17.941
Most probably volatile in December.

206
00:10:18.702 --> 00:10:22.264
We've seen Biden come out a week or two
ago saying, well, there we go.

207
00:10:22.324 --> 00:10:24.926
You can take our long range missiles and
use it today.

208
00:10:24.926 --> 00:10:25.907
He came out with the cease.

209
00:10:26.127 --> 00:10:30.170
I mean, so there's a lot of things
happening from the from the Democrat side.

210
00:10:30.210 --> 00:10:32.311
All it's called that the outgoing
president.

211
00:10:32.871 --> 00:10:37.174
And we know the incoming president has
been been been quite active.

212
00:10:37.174 --> 00:10:39.936
I mean, when last did we see him this
active on X?

213
00:10:40.157 --> 00:10:43.239
So I think it's going to be a fun, fun,
fun time on.

214
00:10:43.719 --> 00:10:50.662
these these medias and social medias yeah
let's uh let's hope it's good fun rather

215
00:10:50.662 --> 00:10:52.662
than bad fun skulk i need

216
00:10:52.662 --> 00:10:57.245
to pick your brain a little bit uh because
uh black friday's coming up and i've got a

217
00:10:57.245 --> 00:10:59.245
retail sector podcast to do

218
00:10:59.245 --> 00:11:00.566
on on friday and it's

219
00:11:00.586 --> 00:11:07.469
going to be very much related to the
influence of black friday but on this sa

220
00:11:07.469 --> 00:11:09.469
retail sector not not in the

221
00:11:09.469 --> 00:11:11.951
us because black friday is now a global
phenomenon of course and the recent

222
00:11:12.407 --> 00:11:15.069
Trading updates and results coming out of
the retail sector.

223
00:11:15.449 --> 00:11:20.772
To me, I mean, my theme is you can't just
blanket buy the retail sector.

224
00:11:20.792 --> 00:11:25.455
You have to choose your stock and the
sector within the sector very carefully.

225
00:11:25.535 --> 00:11:26.595
Would you say that's correct?

226
00:11:27.516 --> 00:11:28.216
Yes.

227
00:11:28.216 --> 00:11:29.617
Yes, you definitely need to do so.

228
00:11:30.138 --> 00:11:31.218
You definitely need to do so.

229
00:11:32.219 --> 00:11:34.900
But I do agree with you.

230
00:11:34.940 --> 00:11:39.223
I think this Black Friday is going to be a
particularly interesting one.

231
00:11:39.423 --> 00:11:46.129
you know from a african point of view
we've seen the likes of mr price um you

232
00:11:46.129 --> 00:11:48.129
know they they update

233
00:11:48.129 --> 00:11:53.354
that came through i think a week or two
ago we've had pep call this week i think

234
00:11:53.354 --> 00:11:55.354
yesterday that also looked good we had a
great

235
00:11:55.354 --> 00:11:57.354
reaction with the market and

236
00:11:57.354 --> 00:12:02.762
once you just realized this was most of
these updates pretty much until september

237
00:12:02.762 --> 00:12:04.762
um the real

238
00:12:04.762 --> 00:12:08.026
effect of of this two-part system i think
is going to be mind-boggling um

239
00:12:08.811 --> 00:12:14.155
Do you think people will dip in because
they're allowed to now and use it to

240
00:12:14.155 --> 00:12:14.354
spend,

241
00:12:14.354 --> 00:12:15.976
whereas before they haven't been able to?

242
00:12:16.576 --> 00:12:19.038
Are they going to give themselves some
retail therapy?

243
00:12:20.359 --> 00:12:23.821
Well, I just need to look at the stats
that's been provided already.

244
00:12:23.821 --> 00:12:24.882
I mean, we're looking at SARS.

245
00:12:25.602 --> 00:12:31.426
The stats are really telling us that we're
looking at more than 50 billion rands

246
00:12:31.426 --> 00:12:33.426
worth of

247
00:12:33.426 --> 00:12:35.709
pension fund money through this two-part
system has been withdrawn.

248
00:12:36.950 --> 00:12:41.480
And a lot of… Very clever people out there
will say, well, about half of that.

249
00:12:41.920 --> 00:12:42.620
Okay.

250
00:12:42.620 --> 00:12:43.660
I think that's a thumbs up.

251
00:12:43.680 --> 00:12:47.801
But about half of that is going to be used
to reduce debt.

252
00:12:48.162 --> 00:12:52.643
And the other half is going to be used to
use as retail therapy.

253
00:12:53.983 --> 00:12:59.285
And, I mean, I think I'm sticking my hand
up first and saying, well,

254
00:12:59.445 --> 00:13:03.366
I don't think they're paying off half
their debt.

255
00:13:03.486 --> 00:13:04.786
I think it's way less.

256
00:13:05.566 --> 00:13:08.327
And I think this Black Friday might just
be.

257
00:13:08.367 --> 00:13:09.408
be a really,

258
00:13:09.928 --> 00:13:16.855
really interesting turn of events with
more money being into the South African

259
00:13:16.855 --> 00:13:18.855
system through this

260
00:13:18.855 --> 00:13:20.855
two-part system.

261
00:13:20.855 --> 00:13:22.855
Okay.

262
00:13:22.855 --> 00:13:24.855
We'll look forward to that.

263
00:13:24.855 --> 00:13:25.723
Meanwhile, on a very quiet day, let's go
straight to the markets where the dollar

264
00:13:25.723 --> 00:13:27.723
rand is 1821.

265
00:13:27.723 --> 00:13:28.425
British pound against the rand is 2301.

266
00:13:28.946 --> 00:13:31.488
And the euro rand is 1919.

267
00:13:31.488 --> 00:13:34.291
Euro dollar, the aforementioned 105.35.

268
00:13:34.607 --> 00:13:41.391
which is now a half a percent gain for the
euro against the greenback uh gold price

269
00:13:41.391 --> 00:13:43.391
uh 26 41 up

270
00:13:43.391 --> 00:13:48.414
21 an ounce or 0.8 now platinum is 938
which is up 14 an

271
00:13:48.435 --> 00:13:53.417
ounce and palladium has also gone from
four figures to three figures over the

272
00:13:53.417 --> 00:13:55.417
last couple of days

273
00:13:55.417 --> 00:14:00.461
994 which is uh up four dollars an ounce
actually now let's have a look at crude

274
00:14:00.461 --> 00:14:02.461
oil it's been remarkably quiet

275
00:14:02.461 --> 00:14:03.883
recently i thought the cessation of
hostilities

276
00:14:04.371 --> 00:14:10.755
in between Israel and Lebanon might sort
of stabilize the region a bit but not a

277
00:14:10.755 --> 00:14:12.755
bit of it the Brent crude oil price up

278
00:14:12.755 --> 00:14:17.960
0.3 percent to 7303 and West Texas 6891
which is up 0.2 percent natural

279
00:14:17.980 --> 00:14:21.263
gas prices have fallen five and three
quarters percent goodness

280
00:14:21.323 --> 00:14:28.127
me it's quite a big move there and
elsewhere no not much really it's a

281
00:14:28.127 --> 00:14:30.127
pre-thanksgiving break we're having here

282
00:14:30.127 --> 00:14:34.772
as for US stock markets ahead of the big
day tomorrow very very quiet obviously you

283
00:14:34.772 --> 00:14:36.772
S&P 500 futures,

284
00:14:36.772 --> 00:14:38.054
6,030, down very, very slightly.

285
00:14:38.134 --> 00:14:41.395
The US 10-year bond yield has also been
quite of late.

286
00:14:41.395 --> 00:14:42.796
It's firming up, though.

287
00:14:42.796 --> 00:14:46.098
4.29%, yield falling, bonds rising.

288
00:14:46.598 --> 00:14:48.079
South Africa, the same, actually.

289
00:14:48.800 --> 00:14:52.582
South African 10-year has done very well
last few days.

290
00:14:52.642 --> 00:14:55.363
9.18% currently.

291
00:14:56.024 --> 00:14:57.684
Bitcoin coming off the boil.

292
00:14:57.985 --> 00:15:01.907
Looked for all the world it would be
through 100,000 and beyond, but no.

293
00:15:02.227 --> 00:15:09.091
below 95 000 now 94 640 which is
nonetheless a 1.4

294
00:15:09.091 --> 00:15:15.974
percent gain are you seeing anything scale
i know you've been on the road today so

295
00:15:15.974 --> 00:15:17.974
these sort of things these sort of things
are immaterial

296
00:15:17.974 --> 00:15:18.556
to you quite honestly clients

297
00:15:18.636 --> 00:15:25.500
are more important on these days yeah yeah
yeah i said this only in november usually

298
00:15:25.500 --> 00:15:27.500
we as uh wealth managers do spend more

299
00:15:27.500 --> 00:15:30.943
more of our time on the on the road uh
giving report backs and uh they're really

300
00:15:30.943 --> 00:15:32.943
spinning it behind a computer but

301
00:15:32.943 --> 00:15:37.671
something did you know catch mom and we
had uh nam pac uh bring out a trading

302
00:15:37.671 --> 00:15:39.671
statement today and

303
00:15:39.671 --> 00:15:40.323
I don't know what to make of it.

304
00:15:40.323 --> 00:15:44.304
Let's start with the bad side.

305
00:15:44.304 --> 00:15:47.325
I mean, share price reacted at 12.5%.

306
00:15:47.825 --> 00:15:50.245
I'm dumb.

307
00:15:50.245 --> 00:15:51.666
Yes, I'm saying.

308
00:15:51.746 --> 00:15:52.446
That's a big one.

309
00:15:55.287 --> 00:16:01.189
This is one of those scenarios where I,
unfortunately, do not have a really

310
00:16:01.189 --> 00:16:03.189
positive stance on it.

311
00:16:03.189 --> 00:16:05.570
A lot of the times I compliment companies
for bringing out really thorough.

312
00:16:05.926 --> 00:16:12.910
um in a sense announcements keeping the
shareholders you know updated but this one

313
00:16:12.910 --> 00:16:14.910
was just bad i mean it was

314
00:16:14.910 --> 00:16:19.634
it was such a you know bad report in terms
of you could see there's going to be major

315
00:16:19.634 --> 00:16:21.634
major losses

316
00:16:21.634 --> 00:16:23.634
somewhere um

317
00:16:23.634 --> 00:16:28.780
and it was just cryptically said this is
what's happening we've had this major you

318
00:16:28.780 --> 00:16:30.780
know downgrade

319
00:16:30.780 --> 00:16:34.791
on our earnings and um yeah that's it
that's pretty much just So I think for the

320
00:16:34.791 --> 00:16:36.791
listeners out there,

321
00:16:36.791 --> 00:16:38.014
they will most probably be waiting for the
actual results to come through.

322
00:16:39.395 --> 00:16:42.257
And hopefully that will give them some
better insights.

323
00:16:42.317 --> 00:16:46.921
But if this is true, then there's going to
be some major,

324
00:16:47.061 --> 00:16:50.464
major losses coming from Nampak's side.

325
00:16:50.564 --> 00:16:56.769
And then this drop that we've seen in the
share price today has been totally

326
00:16:56.769 --> 00:16:58.769
justifiable.

327
00:16:58.769 --> 00:16:58.791
Yes, it will be in thin conditions.

328
00:16:59.171 --> 00:17:02.454
Argent came out with numbers as well,
interim numbers, share price down.

329
00:17:03.034 --> 00:17:04.075
nearly 4%.

330
00:17:04.455 --> 00:17:06.057
Let's go straight to the JSC board now.

331
00:17:08.259 --> 00:17:09.540
I've got one more.

332
00:17:10.140 --> 00:17:13.563
One of my favourite sectors lately is
naturally HyProp.

333
00:17:14.524 --> 00:17:20.950
We had an impact that was bad, but HyProp
reacted 2.6% on their operational update.

334
00:17:21.110 --> 00:17:23.492
I don't know if there are listeners out
there that don't know HyProp.

335
00:17:23.812 --> 00:17:26.094
They specialise in retail property.

336
00:17:26.815 --> 00:17:30.718
Very well-known shopping centres like
Canal Walk.

337
00:17:31.218 --> 00:17:37.461
the Somerset Mall, Table Bay Mall, I mean,
very well-known, you know, Cape Town,

338
00:17:37.461 --> 00:17:39.461
Capetonian type of malls,

339
00:17:39.461 --> 00:17:41.002
but also they've got an East European
portfolio as well,

340
00:17:41.002 --> 00:17:44.484
but they focus mostly on retail property.

341
00:17:45.344 --> 00:17:52.147
Things that really stood out, and these
are things that you and I have been

342
00:17:52.147 --> 00:17:54.147
chatting about, you know, as we went from
COVID, where everybody said, well,

343
00:17:54.147 --> 00:17:58.149
nobody's going to be going to shopping
centers anymore, everybody's going to be

344
00:17:58.149 --> 00:18:00.149
buying online, you know, office, nobody's
going to go back to office.

345
00:18:00.149 --> 00:18:00.270
We now see that a lot of people, I mean...

346
00:18:00.490 --> 00:18:07.312
Even Elon Musk said one of the first
things he's going to do is he's going to

347
00:18:07.312 --> 00:18:09.312
force every single person that's from a

348
00:18:09.312 --> 00:18:14.094
government employee point of view that's
still not working remotely to go back to

349
00:18:14.094 --> 00:18:14.294
an office.

350
00:18:14.294 --> 00:18:20.675
But Peter, when you look at the retail
vacancies, 2%, man,

351
00:18:21.176 --> 00:18:23.176
that is really, really, really good.

352
00:18:23.536 --> 00:18:29.678
The office vacancies still on the high-ish
side, 17.7%, but...

353
00:18:30.342 --> 00:18:36.987
be mindful this was trading at 27.4 a year
ago so a massive massive recovery

354
00:18:37.588 --> 00:18:44.574
in in in the office vacancies and like i
said retail vacancies are two percent it's

355
00:18:44.574 --> 00:18:46.574
just beautiful so yeah i think it's

356
00:18:46.574 --> 00:18:50.098
a it's a really a positive update i can't
wait to see the actual result not a

357
00:18:50.098 --> 00:18:52.098
shelter of high prop

358
00:18:52.320 --> 00:18:58.525
to do have a shielding in in the retail
space through resilient very similar but

359
00:18:58.525 --> 00:19:00.525
um as

360
00:19:00.525 --> 00:19:02.392
mentioned high prop today React at 2.6%
positive.

361
00:19:02.432 --> 00:19:04.593
So I thought that was a big win for
shareholders.

362
00:19:04.873 --> 00:19:10.877
I'm looking at my leaders board and
another share is a top of the list that is

363
00:19:10.877 --> 00:19:12.877
a property company.

364
00:19:12.877 --> 00:19:15.060
Primary Health Property, PLC, up 6.1%.

365
00:19:15.120 --> 00:19:18.723
I mean, that's obviously very specific
within the property sector.

366
00:19:19.063 --> 00:19:19.763
Is this right?

367
00:19:19.923 --> 00:19:21.885
Am I talking or am I talking nonsense?

368
00:19:22.185 --> 00:19:24.687
Primary Health Prop, is that a property
company?

369
00:19:24.687 --> 00:19:27.428
I actually don't know, Lindsay.

370
00:19:27.428 --> 00:19:29.390
I mean, this is a company that falls
outside the...

371
00:19:29.830 --> 00:19:30.911
They're all sheer.

372
00:19:31.612 --> 00:19:34.614
It looks very, very thin, I must say,
looking at the graph of it today.

373
00:19:35.575 --> 00:19:36.275
Okay.

374
00:19:36.696 --> 00:19:39.939
Another one, mass is second on the list as
well.

375
00:19:40.639 --> 00:19:42.421
Gosh, I really should do my research on
that.

376
00:19:42.441 --> 00:19:44.823
But when I see pH prop, I think of
property.

377
00:19:45.063 --> 00:19:46.264
Anyway, 6.1% up.

378
00:19:46.564 --> 00:19:52.670
Mass up 4%. Pick and pay doing well, 3.5%
better ahead of this Black Friday event.

379
00:19:52.970 --> 00:19:57.494
Pepcor, the one that you mentioned earlier
on after a trading statement, followed

380
00:19:57.494 --> 00:19:59.494
through buying today.

381
00:19:59.494 --> 00:20:01.494
with a three and a third percent gain.

382
00:20:01.494 --> 00:20:03.494
And it was five percent up yesterday.

383
00:20:03.494 --> 00:20:03.696
It was five percent up yesterday and today
another three and a third.

384
00:20:03.716 --> 00:20:08.097
I mean, this is, oh, we'll be talking
about more than eight percent in two days.

385
00:20:08.457 --> 00:20:09.877
That's great, great stuff.

386
00:20:09.877 --> 00:20:13.438
It is, and it's very encouraging that the
day after a trading statement or a set of

387
00:20:13.438 --> 00:20:13.678
results,

388
00:20:13.678 --> 00:20:18.780
people sit down and having read them a
little bit more carefully say, OK, we

389
00:20:18.780 --> 00:20:20.780
didn't get in yesterday,

390
00:20:20.780 --> 00:20:22.261
but it's not too late because we still
think this has got a way to go.

391
00:20:22.521 --> 00:20:23.741
I always find it encouraging.

392
00:20:23.741 --> 00:20:27.082
If you get a share that goes shooting up
on the day of results, you're going to get

393
00:20:27.082 --> 00:20:27.202
a lot of feedback from people.

394
00:20:27.202 --> 00:20:33.485
and then comes down the next day, you
realise that the day before maybe it was

395
00:20:33.485 --> 00:20:35.485
just a short covering from hedge funds or
something like that.

396
00:20:35.485 --> 00:20:37.485
I don't know.

397
00:20:37.485 --> 00:20:39.485
But that is a very good sign indeed.

398
00:20:39.485 --> 00:20:41.485
Impressive performance over 48 hours.

399
00:20:41.485 --> 00:20:42.028
Adfotech up 3%.

400
00:20:42.068 --> 00:20:43.749
Downside, Roinert 4.1.

401
00:20:43.849 --> 00:20:45.690
Redefine down 4%.

402
00:20:46.410 --> 00:20:47.771
Telcom down 3.1.

403
00:20:47.791 --> 00:20:49.111
Exaro down 3%.

404
00:20:49.291 --> 00:20:52.753
And Tringela nearly 3% weaker.

405
00:20:53.013 --> 00:20:54.994
Any others on your board, Skunk?

406
00:20:55.878 --> 00:21:02.762
No, I could just maybe just add into the
mix also SAC is a corporate.

407
00:21:02.902 --> 00:21:06.805
They also, I mean, also another property
company, also up 2.5%.

408
00:21:07.565 --> 00:21:11.187
Also, they've got the likes and property
in the retail space.

409
00:21:11.227 --> 00:21:16.991
So clearly, I mean, your retail therapy is
not only for the retailers themselves.

410
00:21:17.431 --> 00:21:19.932
I'm talking about Pepcom, Mr.

411
00:21:19.972 --> 00:21:21.794
Price, et cetera, et cetera.

412
00:21:21.874 --> 00:21:22.574
Also.

413
00:21:22.634 --> 00:21:23.875
looking at the companies.

414
00:21:23.935 --> 00:21:28.518
I mean, we know there's going to be a few
people standing at queues, you know, this

415
00:21:28.518 --> 00:21:30.518
coming Friday on Black Friday.

416
00:21:30.518 --> 00:21:35.462
So this naturally will be good for these
shopping centres as well, these retail

417
00:21:35.462 --> 00:21:37.462
companies and the property companies.

418
00:21:37.462 --> 00:21:39.462
Yeah, indeed.

419
00:21:39.462 --> 00:21:41.462
And just one final word on Black Friday.

420
00:21:41.462 --> 00:21:41.825
Do you think it dilutes the Christmas
spending factor?

421
00:21:43.486 --> 00:21:44.687
Yeah, very much so.

422
00:21:45.087 --> 00:21:45.908
Very, very much so.

423
00:21:45.908 --> 00:21:49.270
But I think there's a lot of people that
use the Black Friday.

424
00:21:49.650 --> 00:21:51.912
specials as part of their Christmas
shopping.

425
00:21:52.352 --> 00:21:55.554
I know my kids use it as part of their
Christmas shopping spree.

426
00:21:55.674 --> 00:22:01.878
So, yeah, maybe to a certain extent, but
also, I mean, to get your Christmas

427
00:22:01.878 --> 00:22:03.878
shopping done a little bit cheaper,

428
00:22:03.878 --> 00:22:03.960
that might be the order there.

429
00:22:05.221 --> 00:22:05.921
Okay.

430
00:22:05.921 --> 00:22:10.924
Hopefully you will get some lavish and
well-thought-out gifts this Christmas,

431
00:22:12.566 --> 00:22:13.266
Skalk.

432
00:22:13.266 --> 00:22:15.087
Yes, that company, by the way, I've just
been looking up.

433
00:22:15.227 --> 00:22:17.389
It's Primary Health Properties, PLC.

434
00:22:18.590 --> 00:22:19.290
So...

435
00:22:19.350 --> 00:22:26.332
it is a property company but very niched
obviously can you give us the closing jse

436
00:22:26.332 --> 00:22:28.332
indices please yes yeah jse

437
00:22:28.332 --> 00:22:32.233
closed today at 85 102 points that is down
35 basis points the top 40 76

438
00:22:32.233 --> 00:22:35.754
710 points also down uh

439
00:22:35.754 --> 00:22:41.556
39 basis points while the resource index
today bucked the trend they actually

440
00:22:41.556 --> 00:22:43.556
managed to keep themselves in the green

441
00:22:43.556 --> 00:22:48.718
41 basis points positive um as well as the
sa property 19 basis points uh positive

442
00:22:48.718 --> 00:22:48.818
but

443
00:22:49.326 --> 00:22:54.070
The financials today closed down 1.14%,
while the industrials down

444
00:22:54.471 --> 00:22:57.834
0.15%. We look at the value trade.

445
00:22:58.174 --> 00:22:58.874
Let me just guess.

446
00:22:58.874 --> 00:23:03.339
Let me just guess today, educated guess,
17.4 billion.

447
00:23:05.241 --> 00:23:06.982
That was pretty much what we've seen
yesterday.

448
00:23:07.042 --> 00:23:13.248
But funny enough, if we had this
conversation at

449
00:23:14.569 --> 00:23:15.269
5 o'clock.

450
00:23:15.450 --> 00:23:20.094
we would have seen, I think, more or less,
you know, 15, 16 billion, which was close

451
00:23:20.094 --> 00:23:22.094
to your 17 billion.

452
00:23:22.094 --> 00:23:25.879
But clearly there, in the death, or let's
call it the auction,

453
00:23:26.620 --> 00:23:27.881
we've seen quite a bit of movement.

454
00:23:28.282 --> 00:23:29.643
21 billion for today.

455
00:23:29.643 --> 00:23:32.405
So this week, not a bad day.

456
00:23:32.465 --> 00:23:33.967
I mean, yesterday, 17.6.

457
00:23:34.507 --> 00:23:39.151
But if we look at Monday, Monday, we had
close to 38 billion.

458
00:23:39.572 --> 00:23:40.973
Friday, also 21 billion.

459
00:23:40.993 --> 00:23:41.794
So clearly there's some...

460
00:23:42.114 --> 00:23:45.235
some movement through the JSC, which is
always encouraging.

461
00:23:45.775 --> 00:23:46.475
Very good.

462
00:23:46.775 --> 00:23:49.736
Skulk, keep going on the road, drive
safely,

463
00:23:50.456 --> 00:23:55.498
and soothe your clients'nerves with some
good results from the year.

464
00:23:55.718 --> 00:23:57.538
And we'll speak next week.

465
00:23:57.638 --> 00:23:58.599
That is Skulk Glow.

466
00:23:58.659 --> 00:24:02.680
That was Skulk Glow, Portfolio Manager at
PSG Wealth Old Oak Division in Cape Town.

467
00:24:03.160 --> 00:24:04.280
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

468
00:24:05.040 --> 00:24:10.362
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

469
00:24:10.362 --> 00:24:12.362
various contributors.

470
00:24:12.362 --> 00:24:16.505
and do not reflect the policy, position,
or opinion of any other agency,

471
00:24:16.505 --> 00:24:18.505
organization, employer,

472
00:24:18.505 --> 00:24:20.687
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

473
00:24:21.147 --> 00:24:28.111
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

474
00:24:28.111 --> 00:24:30.111
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

475
00:24:30.111 --> 00:24:34.294
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

476
00:24:34.294 --> 00:24:36.294
change, revision,

477
00:24:36.294 --> 00:24:36.435
and rethinking at any time.

478
00:24:36.756 --> 00:24:39.157
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.