WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.372 --> 00:00:04.634 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:06.114 --> 00:00:09.536 BJC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow. 3 00:00:09.776 --> 00:00:15.979 As always on a Thursday, I've got the double-headed Dream Team edition, which is 4 00:00:15.979 --> 00:00:17.979 populated by, in order of, 5 00:00:17.979 --> 00:00:23.342 just in order, it's Viv Govender from Renswiss and also David Shapira from 6 00:00:23.342 --> 00:00:25.342 Sassfin Securities, both in Johannesburg. 7 00:00:25.342 --> 00:00:28.084 Now, I've got international and I've got local. 8 00:00:28.124 --> 00:00:28.884 Who wants to take? 9 00:00:29.024 --> 00:00:30.305 the local news. 10 00:00:30.725 --> 00:00:31.545 David, is that you? 11 00:00:31.886 --> 00:00:32.846 I think it probably is. 12 00:00:33.667 --> 00:00:35.968 Yeah, I've kind of looked at it. 13 00:00:36.068 --> 00:00:37.789 Well, let me just give you my list. 14 00:00:37.969 --> 00:00:38.669 Sorry. 15 00:00:39.190 --> 00:00:42.351 You've got the South African Reserve Bank cutting rates by 25 basis points. 16 00:00:42.612 --> 00:00:45.593 I don't think that needs to detain us because we're expecting it. 17 00:00:45.913 --> 00:00:47.554 But I've got a retail story here. 18 00:00:48.075 --> 00:00:50.236 You've got Spar, Lewis and Mr. 19 00:00:50.276 --> 00:00:56.699 Price, all retailers, but in different fields, and all coming up with different 20 00:00:56.699 --> 00:00:58.699 sets of results because Spar up 4%. 21 00:00:58.699 --> 00:01:00.699 Spar up 4%. 22 00:01:00.699 --> 00:01:00.906 Lewis is down 4 and a bit percent, and Mr. 23 00:01:00.966 --> 00:01:02.927 Price up 7 and three quarters percent. 24 00:01:03.148 --> 00:01:09.712 I don't know if you looked at any of those, but certainly there's a, if you're 25 00:01:09.712 --> 00:01:11.712 a retail analyst, you don't just blanket buy now, you cherry pick. 26 00:01:11.712 --> 00:01:16.817 That 8% or 7% that's come from, you know, that came from Mr. 27 00:01:16.877 --> 00:01:18.378 Price, a little surprising. 28 00:01:18.439 --> 00:01:24.143 Because I think when I looked at their revenue numbers, because I always compare 29 00:01:24.143 --> 00:01:26.143 it with what we, you know, 30 00:01:26.143 --> 00:01:28.143 what we thought would be without. 31 00:01:28.143 --> 00:01:32.788 estimations and it was down on that when you read through it there was nothing 32 00:01:32.788 --> 00:01:34.788 exciting about it they did mention that you know the 33 00:01:34.788 --> 00:01:39.871 consumers under pressure so i'm quite surprised at the rate what might have 34 00:01:39.871 --> 00:01:41.871 prompted all of this is that it's a 25 35 00:01:41.871 --> 00:01:46.675 point basis cut you know by the reserve bank governor that inflation's coming down 36 00:01:46.675 --> 00:01:48.675 we saw some good retail numbers so 37 00:01:48.675 --> 00:01:48.896 there's been supportive uh 38 00:01:49.036 --> 00:01:55.280 economic data but to be honest lindsay i i think a lot of these retail stocks have 39 00:01:55.280 --> 00:01:57.280 run well ahead 40 00:01:57.285 --> 00:02:02.008 In other words, the prices have run well ahead of the underlying earnings. 41 00:02:02.308 --> 00:02:06.230 There's nothing dramatic about what's happening in our retail sector. 42 00:02:06.910 --> 00:02:12.293 So I think Lewis was surprising because I think that we've had this. 43 00:02:12.774 --> 00:02:14.675 We did have a warning before. 44 00:02:14.735 --> 00:02:16.176 I thought it was a rather good result. 45 00:02:16.536 --> 00:02:23.400 But their numbers come from rather insurance rather than actually selling 46 00:02:23.400 --> 00:02:25.400 couches and chairs and dining room tables and so 47 00:02:25.400 --> 00:02:27.400 on. 48 00:02:27.400 --> 00:02:30.048 I think they load that with all kinds of add-ons, you know, which is so typical of 49 00:02:30.048 --> 00:02:32.048 installment sales. 50 00:02:32.048 --> 00:02:32.470 I haven't had a good look at SPAR. 51 00:02:32.910 --> 00:02:38.874 But I think overall sentiment at the lower end of the market, you know, I'm not 52 00:02:38.874 --> 00:02:40.874 talking about the top end, 53 00:02:40.874 --> 00:02:40.976 which is all our international stocks. 54 00:02:41.036 --> 00:02:42.797 There's been quite a bit of interest. 55 00:02:43.317 --> 00:02:46.740 But whether it's sustainable or not, you know, 56 00:02:46.740 --> 00:02:51.283 I'm still very skeptical that our economy doesn't it's improving. 57 00:02:51.323 --> 00:02:55.025 But I don't think it's it's strong enough to sustain these issues. 58 00:02:55.405 --> 00:03:00.307 And just a last word, just look at what Lesetra said, what the governor said about 59 00:03:00.307 --> 00:03:00.447 growth. 60 00:03:00.747 --> 00:03:05.509 You know, 1.1% this year, 1.7% next year, 1.82%. 61 00:03:05.549 --> 00:03:11.312 So over the next four years, we're not even, you know, we are likely to grow 62 00:03:11.312 --> 00:03:13.312 about 3%. 63 00:03:13.312 --> 00:03:18.195 Very difficult to keep up, you know, selling goods with an economy that is just 64 00:03:18.195 --> 00:03:20.195 faltering, 65 00:03:20.195 --> 00:03:22.195 that's going nowhere. 66 00:03:22.195 --> 00:03:24.195 Okay. 67 00:03:24.195 --> 00:03:26.265 Viv, I do want to stick with local and come to you on this one. 68 00:03:26.565 --> 00:03:31.547 Because yesterday, when 91's results came out, a giant asset management company, 69 00:03:33.427 --> 00:03:37.969 everyone, Viv, was completely flummoxed, not flummoxed, 70 00:03:38.029 --> 00:03:43.070 but surprised by the fact that they came out with this Sanlam deal. 71 00:03:43.090 --> 00:03:49.192 And I was speaking to another commentator yesterday after the results came out, and 72 00:03:49.192 --> 00:03:51.192 he said it must be the best kept secret. 73 00:03:51.192 --> 00:03:53.094 in South African corporate history, because normally these sort of things leak 74 00:03:53.094 --> 00:03:53.154 out, Viv. 75 00:03:53.394 --> 00:03:58.358 But it's very interesting that this consolidation in such a creative way has 76 00:03:58.358 --> 00:03:58.417 come out. 77 00:03:58.458 --> 00:04:05.242 And what it essentially says is that 91 has got $17 billion worth of 78 00:04:05.322 --> 00:04:06.122 money to manage. 79 00:04:06.483 --> 00:04:08.043 And I wonder why it went ahead. 80 00:04:08.344 --> 00:04:11.686 Is it because their assets under management are not growing organically? 81 00:04:12.066 --> 00:04:12.866 What do you think, Viv? 82 00:04:12.866 --> 00:04:13.566 Yeah, look, obviously... 83 00:04:15.388 --> 00:04:21.771 i'm surprised that you know this will pass uh competition uh you know uh because this 84 00:04:21.771 --> 00:04:23.771 consolidation is is pretty 85 00:04:23.771 --> 00:04:27.653 substantially in in the industry that i mean yes uh number one i'd be i'd be like 86 00:04:27.653 --> 00:04:29.653 you know 87 00:04:29.653 --> 00:04:35.676 it's a surprise because remember monocom had that 12 billion round deal blocked uh 88 00:04:35.676 --> 00:04:37.676 for those uh for 89 00:04:37.676 --> 00:04:39.658 that infrastructure and you know this is like you said the deal we're talking about 90 00:04:39.658 --> 00:04:39.918 you know 91 00:04:40.198 --> 00:04:44.820 400 to 800 billion of assets you know that's going to be like involved in this 92 00:04:44.820 --> 00:04:45.180 thing 93 00:04:46.026 --> 00:04:50.939 This is obviously a very difficult thing, but that being said, I mean... 94 00:04:52.363 --> 00:04:56.645 Like David says, we have an industry at the moment or an economy that's growing 95 00:04:56.645 --> 00:04:58.645 just barely. 96 00:04:58.645 --> 00:05:00.927 These things feed us off the economy. 97 00:05:00.927 --> 00:05:07.249 You need to have people saving money, people earning enough to save, to feed 98 00:05:07.249 --> 00:05:09.249 into the system, to actually make people make more money, etc. 99 00:05:09.249 --> 00:05:14.752 And I do think that in terms of the current situation, it kind of does make 100 00:05:14.752 --> 00:05:16.752 sense from that point of view. 101 00:05:16.752 --> 00:05:18.334 We are looking at asset manager, you're talking about distribution combining. 102 00:05:19.314 --> 00:05:21.695 The synergies obviously are there to make sense. 103 00:05:22.399 --> 00:05:26.060 And especially, like I said, with an economy that's as weak as it is right now. 104 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:30.901 But like I said, I'm surprised it passes the regulators. 105 00:05:31.502 --> 00:05:35.063 You know, Viv, you're on to a very important point there. 106 00:05:37.243 --> 00:05:39.944 When you look, just let me go back a bit. 107 00:05:40.024 --> 00:05:43.325 Let me go backtracking to the 90s or something. 108 00:05:43.765 --> 00:05:50.667 In those days and before that, the 80s, if you never got any business from Old 109 00:05:50.667 --> 00:05:52.667 Mutual, 110 00:05:52.667 --> 00:05:55.560 Sunlum, Liberty Life, Alan Gray, you were dead. 111 00:05:56.060 --> 00:05:57.621 You could not conduct your business. 112 00:05:58.261 --> 00:05:59.841 That's how powerful they were. 113 00:05:59.841 --> 00:06:01.382 I call them the Champions League. 114 00:06:02.222 --> 00:06:07.103 In the EuroLeague, and I think Lindsay will appear it, in the Europa League, what 115 00:06:07.103 --> 00:06:09.103 were the pension funds? 116 00:06:09.103 --> 00:06:13.945 The Eskom Pension Fund, PIC, Mine Officials Pension Fund, Anglo-American 117 00:06:13.945 --> 00:06:15.945 Pension Fund, things like that. 118 00:06:15.945 --> 00:06:17.945 They were minor asset managers. 119 00:06:17.945 --> 00:06:21.247 But these, you know, Board of Execs, Cyphers and so on, but those controlled 120 00:06:21.247 --> 00:06:23.247 the... 121 00:06:23.247 --> 00:06:28.761 investments of the country and they did a lot for PIC they did a lot for that you 122 00:06:28.761 --> 00:06:30.761 know they were also 123 00:06:30.761 --> 00:06:35.743 third party asset managers to see Sun Lam now give it all up just shows 124 00:06:36.383 --> 00:06:41.945 you is a shows you what's happened to the industry they're obviously not making any 125 00:06:41.945 --> 00:06:43.945 money out of it they 126 00:06:43.945 --> 00:06:48.987 obviously have huge costs with very little return and said hold on a sec we don't 127 00:06:48.987 --> 00:06:50.987 need this give it to 91 let 128 00:06:50.987 --> 00:06:54.078 them manage it you know we'll go out and sell the products the underwriting 129 00:06:54.078 --> 00:06:56.078 products you 130 00:06:56.078 --> 00:06:56.500 know we'll sell insurance we'll sell whatever it is 131 00:06:57.020 --> 00:07:03.825 pass the money on to 91 and they'll invest it without without us needing to have a 132 00:07:03.825 --> 00:07:05.825 mining analyst you know 133 00:07:05.825 --> 00:07:06.527 of which there's no need so 134 00:07:06.667 --> 00:07:13.451 for me it's it's hold on this is this is really a dramatic turn and identifies just 135 00:07:13.451 --> 00:07:15.451 how far 136 00:07:15.451 --> 00:07:18.615 down you know our asset managers have for how difficult it is it's 137 00:07:19.555 --> 00:07:25.919 I think this is a warning shot and it just shows you things are not that easy in the 138 00:07:25.999 --> 00:07:27.540 industry. 139 00:07:27.540 --> 00:07:28.921 So consolidation in the industry. 140 00:07:29.021 --> 00:07:35.964 And I would say that the more nimble of the two parties is 91 and Hendrik de Tooy 141 00:07:35.964 --> 00:07:37.964 at the helm saying, look, OK, 142 00:07:37.964 --> 00:07:39.246 I can see the writing on the wall, as you've just described well, David, 143 00:07:39.646 --> 00:07:43.809 and let's consolidate now before other people consolidate with each other. 144 00:07:44.029 --> 00:07:47.571 And maybe, I don't know, maybe David staying with you, it'll... 145 00:07:47.891 --> 00:07:53.093 promote a rush of other consolidations as the South African economy continues to 146 00:07:53.093 --> 00:07:55.093 disappoint. 147 00:07:55.093 --> 00:07:58.335 If you talk to Viv, he don't talk South African market. 148 00:08:00.496 --> 00:08:01.557 He deals overseas. 149 00:08:02.057 --> 00:08:03.878 He's got clients who give him money. 150 00:08:04.138 --> 00:08:05.098 He goes overseas. 151 00:08:05.338 --> 00:08:08.039 He's got his own little business, very similar to mine. 152 00:08:08.039 --> 00:08:08.739 That's all I do. 153 00:08:09.180 --> 00:08:09.900 I've got clients. 154 00:08:10.160 --> 00:08:12.541 They like me or they trust me, whatever it is. 155 00:08:12.921 --> 00:08:13.902 I go offshore. 156 00:08:14.022 --> 00:08:16.863 I do not even try to compete. 157 00:08:17.307 --> 00:08:20.470 in the local market because, to be honest, there's nothing for me to do. 158 00:08:21.090 --> 00:08:22.651 You know, there's nothing that excites me. 159 00:08:22.892 --> 00:08:24.213 Yes, we're talking about Mr. 160 00:08:24.253 --> 00:08:24.953 Price. 161 00:08:24.953 --> 00:08:31.579 We're talking about you know, you can't make you can't do big money around a 162 00:08:31.579 --> 00:08:33.579 handful of retailers or so. 163 00:08:33.579 --> 00:08:35.579 What's exciting about a retailer? 164 00:08:35.722 --> 00:08:36.843 Well, no, just wait a second. 165 00:08:36.843 --> 00:08:38.705 You do get excited about American retailers. 166 00:08:38.725 --> 00:08:41.547 We had Target yesterday, share price falling 20% plus. 167 00:08:41.947 --> 00:08:44.029 And then we had Walmart's numbers, which were really good. 168 00:08:44.029 --> 00:08:45.570 So retail can be exciting. 169 00:08:45.870 --> 00:08:50.093 But you're saying The South African retailer is not exciting. 170 00:08:53.255 --> 00:08:59.959 In a low growth area, that's why I mentioned the 1.1%, 1.7%, 1.8%, 2% over 171 00:08:59.959 --> 00:09:01.959 the next four years. 172 00:09:01.959 --> 00:09:04.662 And how can Sunlum grow its asset management side? 173 00:09:04.682 --> 00:09:08.084 How can 91 grow its side against that? 174 00:09:08.824 --> 00:09:13.347 It can only do that by consolidating or stealing other people's business. 175 00:09:13.567 --> 00:09:17.828 You know, there's one pie, and you go and steal someone else's business. 176 00:09:17.848 --> 00:09:19.469 Well, steal's a strong word, David. 177 00:09:19.489 --> 00:09:25.091 We know that financial services professionals would never steal from a 178 00:09:25.091 --> 00:09:25.411 client. 179 00:09:26.371 --> 00:09:33.333 Viv, the one that we really want to talk about, of course, after the bell last 180 00:09:33.333 --> 00:09:35.333 night and video's results came out, I looked at these things. 181 00:09:35.333 --> 00:09:37.333 I mean, just the headlines. 182 00:09:37.333 --> 00:09:39.333 Revenue doubled. 183 00:09:39.333 --> 00:09:41.333 Revenue doubled. 184 00:09:41.333 --> 00:09:43.333 doubled. 185 00:09:43.333 --> 00:09:45.369 How many companies in the world, unless they're coming off a very low space, we 186 00:09:45.369 --> 00:09:47.369 made $100 last year, we've made $200 this year. 187 00:09:47.369 --> 00:09:51.994 How many people can say as a CEO, a chairman, whatever, and sit down in front 188 00:09:51.994 --> 00:09:53.994 of shareholders and say, we doubled our revenue. 189 00:09:53.994 --> 00:09:58.580 We're looking forward to in 2025 being a $4 trillion market cap company. 190 00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:01.162 Astonishing numbers, Mr. 191 00:10:01.202 --> 00:10:01.902 Governor. 192 00:10:02.822 --> 00:10:03.522 Yes. 193 00:10:03.522 --> 00:10:05.103 Look, firstly, I want to say that it's amazing. 194 00:10:05.123 --> 00:10:06.844 Like, you know, Steve Jobs is the byword. 195 00:10:07.324 --> 00:10:10.906 Elon Musk is the byword for entrepreneur, you know, in this current environment. 196 00:10:11.466 --> 00:10:12.666 They are nothing compared to Jensen Wong. 197 00:10:13.487 --> 00:10:17.829 Honestly, if you look at the value Steve Jobs created while he was alive, okay, 198 00:10:18.069 --> 00:10:20.690 a lot of the creation of Apple happened after he had passed away. 199 00:10:21.130 --> 00:10:23.011 And like, you know, Tim Cook took over. 200 00:10:24.071 --> 00:10:27.373 Elon Musk, you know, his companies, of course, I think Tesla just passed a 201 00:10:27.373 --> 00:10:27.412 trillion or so. 202 00:10:27.733 --> 00:10:30.214 But you combine all of them together, you know, you're talking under two trillion. 203 00:10:30.682 --> 00:10:34.284 And now you have this $3.6 trillion company created by Jensen Wong. 204 00:10:34.704 --> 00:10:39.306 He is the, by measure of actual creation of market capitalization and value, 205 00:10:39.726 --> 00:10:43.828 the number one entrepreneur of the last, I would think, probably century. 206 00:10:44.328 --> 00:10:50.090 You'd have to go back to the people like, you know, the Carnegie's or the, you know, 207 00:10:50.090 --> 00:10:52.090 the Ford's or the, you know, 208 00:10:52.090 --> 00:10:56.373 the Rockefeller's to find somebody that created something this valuable, you know, 209 00:10:56.373 --> 00:10:58.373 the former busboy, as he likes to say, 210 00:10:58.373 --> 00:10:58.394 even though that was only when he was like a teenager. 211 00:10:58.774 --> 00:11:00.375 But yeah, this is an incredible company. 212 00:11:01.355 --> 00:11:04.656 Like you said, you're talking about a revenue of $35 billion. 213 00:11:05.797 --> 00:11:08.958 Looking to increase that for the next quarter to $37.5 billion. 214 00:11:10.879 --> 00:11:12.400 That's even ahead of Wall Street estimates. 215 00:11:12.700 --> 00:11:18.942 The only problem is because the market's been so used to expecting such brilliant 216 00:11:18.942 --> 00:11:20.942 results from this company that even with such incredible 217 00:11:20.942 --> 00:11:21.863 returns, we are seeing the share price down slightly today. 218 00:11:22.804 --> 00:11:24.324 Not dramatically, 2.5% or so. 219 00:11:24.985 --> 00:11:27.506 When the news first broke about the results... 220 00:11:28.166 --> 00:11:34.812 there was a dip after market about five percent it ended down about say two three 221 00:11:34.812 --> 00:11:36.812 percent uh but if you look at the variation in the share price i mean uh 222 00:11:36.812 --> 00:11:41.858 even with the current fall we have at the moment uh for the month as a whole for the 223 00:11:41.858 --> 00:11:43.858 last month it's only down one percent you know 224 00:11:43.858 --> 00:11:44.360 and for the year to date it's this thing is up 225 00:11:44.700 --> 00:11:51.626 195 percent you know that means it's created about two trillion dollars of 226 00:11:51.626 --> 00:11:53.626 market capitalization this year 227 00:11:53.626 --> 00:11:58.151 alone and remember 2019 was the first time we had a normal company not a Saudi 228 00:11:58.151 --> 00:12:00.151 Aramco, but a normal company, which is Apple, 229 00:12:00.151 --> 00:12:02.151 passed the $1 trillion mark. 230 00:12:02.151 --> 00:12:03.892 And this company has created $2 trillion of market capitalization in the last year. 231 00:12:04.952 --> 00:12:10.634 It's quite astonishing the numbers that you've just trotted out there, Viv. 232 00:12:11.454 --> 00:12:13.135 David, you're a shareholder in NVIDIA. 233 00:12:13.655 --> 00:12:15.856 I don't know whether it's yourself, but certainly your clients. 234 00:12:16.236 --> 00:12:17.976 You must have been delighted with these things. 235 00:12:19.457 --> 00:12:21.817 You know, these numbers, I don't think this is over. 236 00:12:22.497 --> 00:12:23.898 You know, when you analyze... 237 00:12:24.738 --> 00:12:31.724 when you actually analyze what the analyst said and it comes back to exactly your 238 00:12:31.724 --> 00:12:33.724 introduction i mean this 239 00:12:33.724 --> 00:12:38.469 is a phenomenal business you can't hear you know i always use the example you know 240 00:12:38.469 --> 00:12:40.469 even a logistic company 241 00:12:40.469 --> 00:12:43.493 sometimes the truck goes out and bursts a tire you know it's going to happen 242 00:12:43.493 --> 00:12:45.493 businesses 243 00:12:45.493 --> 00:12:50.539 are not going to go that smoothly they're going to be certain setbacks i'm not quite 244 00:12:50.539 --> 00:12:52.539 sure what the setback is 245 00:12:52.539 --> 00:12:57.424 with nvidia just seems to be going along they might be certain delays in getting 246 00:12:57.424 --> 00:12:59.424 this new chip ready, 247 00:12:59.424 --> 00:13:00.126 there might be logistical problems, might be whatever. 248 00:13:00.466 --> 00:13:02.448 Matter of fact, it's crazy. 249 00:13:02.768 --> 00:13:06.871 The fact that they might have missed their margins, Lindsay, are over 70%. 250 00:13:07.711 --> 00:13:11.594 Hello, go ask Pecan Pay what their margins are, or go ask... 251 00:13:11.834 --> 00:13:13.355 4% maybe, I don't know. 252 00:13:14.216 --> 00:13:17.838 Oh, you know, the others are, but not Pecan Pay. 253 00:13:17.898 --> 00:13:20.360 But whatever, this is 70%. 254 00:13:21.000 --> 00:13:23.122 And I mean, so, you know, the analysts are on a... 255 00:13:23.586 --> 00:13:26.547 Well, you know, when margin's going to get back to whatever it is. 256 00:13:26.887 --> 00:13:31.729 So they so, you know, we're so, what's the word, obsessed with models. 257 00:13:32.089 --> 00:13:38.992 You know, we sit back at Sheetz and we try and work out these models and get back and 258 00:13:38.992 --> 00:13:40.992 kind of discount to the fourth decimal 259 00:13:40.992 --> 00:13:42.253 point what we think a company should be worth. 260 00:13:43.233 --> 00:13:44.454 You're missing the story, man. 261 00:13:45.347 --> 00:13:46.367 Let me ask you this. 262 00:13:46.387 --> 00:13:47.649 Let's both of you this. 263 00:13:47.829 --> 00:13:49.250 I'm going to ask both of you this question. 264 00:13:49.530 --> 00:13:56.436 Is the only way that the 70% margin that David has just referred to and the market 265 00:13:56.436 --> 00:13:58.436 dominance that we've been speaking 266 00:13:58.436 --> 00:14:00.436 about for months, the three of us, 267 00:14:00.436 --> 00:14:05.564 is the only way that this can rectify itself or rather become more equitable? 268 00:14:06.125 --> 00:14:12.130 Is another company coming up with a chip and growing like NVIDIA did two, three 269 00:14:12.130 --> 00:14:12.270 years ago? 270 00:14:12.470 --> 00:14:13.170 years ago. 271 00:14:13.170 --> 00:14:14.352 And Viv, I'll go to you on this. 272 00:14:14.432 --> 00:14:20.257 Is this the only way margins are going to fall and revenues are going to stop 273 00:14:20.257 --> 00:14:22.257 doubling every year? 274 00:14:22.257 --> 00:14:23.060 Or is there some other reason, i.e. 275 00:14:23.160 --> 00:14:28.024 AI doesn't become the popular theme of the future? 276 00:14:29.485 --> 00:14:34.069 Well, I mean, the thing with AI is, and this is a little bit more in depth than 277 00:14:34.069 --> 00:14:36.069 like most things. 278 00:14:36.069 --> 00:14:38.069 So there's a thing called scaling. 279 00:14:38.069 --> 00:14:39.314 And the scaling thing has been up to this point, what you do is you add data, you 280 00:14:39.314 --> 00:14:39.513 add... 281 00:14:40.126 --> 00:14:42.368 your computing power and you get a smarter machine. 282 00:14:43.128 --> 00:14:49.011 However this is done, who knows exactly what the mechanism behind it is, it's 283 00:14:49.011 --> 00:14:51.011 literally like magic, people don't know exactly how it works. 284 00:14:51.011 --> 00:14:52.634 They have theories but they don't know exactly how this thing creates what it 285 00:14:52.634 --> 00:14:52.893 creates. 286 00:14:53.174 --> 00:14:56.756 And the thing is that, you know, we have hit a point in the last, I would think, 287 00:14:56.816 --> 00:15:00.658 year or so where it's emerged that it might be that either the data, 288 00:15:01.359 --> 00:15:05.481 probably the data is not at a high enough level because we're putting human 289 00:15:05.481 --> 00:15:07.481 knowledge into this thing. 290 00:15:07.481 --> 00:15:12.955 If you put human knowledge into this thing, and there's a feeling of human 291 00:15:12.955 --> 00:15:14.955 knowledge, it's not creating new knowledge, it kind of tops off at the 292 00:15:14.955 --> 00:15:16.955 brainpower of a human, you know what I mean? 293 00:15:16.955 --> 00:15:18.955 And that's pretty much the way it is right now. 294 00:15:18.955 --> 00:15:20.955 It's topping off at the brainpower of a human. 295 00:15:20.955 --> 00:15:22.955 It can do the things that a normal human being does. 296 00:15:22.955 --> 00:15:23.858 Some people put IQ tests for this thing and say it comes with 101 or 100 IQ, which 297 00:15:23.858 --> 00:15:25.858 is the average human IQ. 298 00:15:25.858 --> 00:15:29.000 Some say it's coming to the same level as a good graduate student or a good 299 00:15:29.000 --> 00:15:31.000 university student, 300 00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:32.500 which is kind of what you'd expect from the amount of information there is in the 301 00:15:32.500 --> 00:15:32.800 world. 302 00:15:32.981 --> 00:15:34.001 So that's the kind of tapping. 303 00:15:34.461 --> 00:15:35.822 It's not going beyond that at the moment. 304 00:15:35.942 --> 00:15:42.647 The question is, is the new set of stuff coming out, is the stuff that OpenAI is 305 00:15:42.647 --> 00:15:44.647 about to release in the next few months or Grok is about to release in the 306 00:15:44.647 --> 00:15:46.647 next few months, is that stuff going to be the next level? 307 00:15:46.647 --> 00:15:50.292 And that's why people are, like, for instance, there was a tweet this week by 308 00:15:50.292 --> 00:15:52.292 Sam Altman saying there is no wall. 309 00:15:52.292 --> 00:15:57.418 And the term wall implies that there's a limit to how far this particular 310 00:15:57.418 --> 00:15:59.418 technology gets us. 311 00:15:59.418 --> 00:16:01.761 Now, we will know, like, the next thing, I would say by the first quarter of next 312 00:16:01.761 --> 00:16:03.761 year, we will know. 313 00:16:03.761 --> 00:16:05.662 if these machines can go beyond what they are currently. 314 00:16:06.122 --> 00:16:12.964 If they can't, what will happen is that the machines or the programs we have will 315 00:16:12.964 --> 00:16:14.964 stay at the same intelligence, but they'll get smaller, 316 00:16:14.964 --> 00:16:16.964 and that's been happening. 317 00:16:16.964 --> 00:16:19.006 So we've seen smaller and smaller programs achieve the same level of performance, 318 00:16:19.006 --> 00:16:21.006 make it more efficient and so on, 319 00:16:21.006 --> 00:16:24.627 which is probably not a good thing for NVIDIA in the short term, but probably a 320 00:16:24.627 --> 00:16:26.627 great thing for them in the long term because it means that AI becomes 321 00:16:26.627 --> 00:16:28.627 ubiquitous, 322 00:16:28.627 --> 00:16:30.627 and you put it everywhere because it's so small and so cheap. 323 00:16:30.627 --> 00:16:31.669 But in terms of the profit margin, it also means that... 324 00:16:32.397 --> 00:16:38.842 you know, it's more possible to compete because without the driver of having to 325 00:16:38.842 --> 00:16:40.842 build these multi 100 billion or 326 00:16:40.842 --> 00:16:45.026 100 billion or billion dollar data centers, you basically they could focus 327 00:16:45.026 --> 00:16:47.026 more on costs. 328 00:16:47.026 --> 00:16:51.590 And you're not as focused on basically just trying to be first because right now, 329 00:16:51.590 --> 00:16:53.590 the idea they have is that you are in a race, 330 00:16:53.590 --> 00:16:58.095 an exponential race, and being six months behind means you're two times or maybe 331 00:16:58.095 --> 00:17:00.095 half as powerful as somebody else, you know, 332 00:17:00.095 --> 00:17:01.437 and therefore you want to be the first one there, no matter what the cost. 333 00:17:01.901 --> 00:17:08.506 gives you a huge advantage and i do think that like i said next say three four 334 00:17:08.506 --> 00:17:10.506 months we will know for certain 335 00:17:10.506 --> 00:17:15.652 is it a case of walls with it or not and that i think is the real danger 336 00:17:15.652 --> 00:17:17.652 competitors i don't know who the competitors are amd is not 337 00:17:17.652 --> 00:17:21.457 competitor intel is falling apart uh you know armies has its own problems so i 338 00:17:21.457 --> 00:17:23.457 don't know i mean there is a company 339 00:17:23.457 --> 00:17:24.980 called grok this is the other grok not the elon musk rock okay it's another 340 00:17:25.000 --> 00:17:30.965 grok big inference but they're not trying to go against uh actually uh nvidia 341 00:17:31.425 --> 00:17:35.086 in terms of the training data, the training system, sorry. 342 00:17:35.606 --> 00:17:41.228 So until we hit that wall, I don't think NVIDIA has a real issue with competitors 343 00:17:41.228 --> 00:17:43.228 coming and taking their money away. 344 00:17:43.228 --> 00:17:43.348 Unless there's something happening in China we don't know about. 345 00:17:43.848 --> 00:17:44.569 That could be possible. 346 00:17:45.049 --> 00:17:45.749 It could easily be. 347 00:17:45.749 --> 00:17:48.070 They'll unleash it on an unsuspecting world. 348 00:17:48.550 --> 00:17:50.690 Okay, but both of you are still holding on. 349 00:17:50.830 --> 00:17:52.211 I'm being presumptuous here. 350 00:17:52.471 --> 00:17:53.451 I'm putting words in your mouth. 351 00:17:53.471 --> 00:17:57.092 But you're both holding on to your holdings in NVIDIA, which have served you 352 00:17:57.092 --> 00:17:57.192 so well. 353 00:17:58.092 --> 00:18:03.026 You know, there are certain businesses like NVIDIA Take NVIDIA out the equation 354 00:18:03.026 --> 00:18:05.026 now. 355 00:18:05.026 --> 00:18:07.790 I understand what Viv's saying, and we'll find that out in a six-month time. 356 00:18:07.790 --> 00:18:10.511 But for the meantime, there is no competition. 357 00:18:10.972 --> 00:18:13.974 It's the same thing as ASML. There are certain monopolies, 358 00:18:13.974 --> 00:18:19.397 there are certain businesses that are pivotal to the existence of this 359 00:18:19.397 --> 00:18:21.397 technology. 360 00:18:21.397 --> 00:18:25.662 And when you look at the pure numbers that this company 361 00:18:27.003 --> 00:18:28.724 earns, I mean, it's phenomenal. 362 00:18:29.324 --> 00:18:30.325 And to kind of nip... 363 00:18:30.485 --> 00:18:36.830 pick over over issues and i think every every um every kind of 364 00:18:36.970 --> 00:18:43.736 uh uh analyst tries to outsmart the next one you know because that's the only way 365 00:18:43.736 --> 00:18:45.736 you kind of uh attract any 366 00:18:45.736 --> 00:18:50.762 kind of attention i just i just leave it you know you've got to just get past the 367 00:18:50.762 --> 00:18:52.762 noise i saw that nvidia was down about two and 368 00:18:52.762 --> 00:18:57.187 a half percent after close it's it's picked up it was up at one percent it's 369 00:18:57.187 --> 00:18:59.187 down a little bit now but i think there are other issues that 370 00:18:59.187 --> 00:19:01.306 are uh are just dominating the US market at the moment. 371 00:19:01.346 --> 00:19:06.409 I think that has more to do with the Middle East and, sorry, 372 00:19:06.429 --> 00:19:10.311 Ukraine and Russia and issues like that. 373 00:19:10.311 --> 00:19:14.953 We'll talk about that as we close the show, actually, because I got rather 374 00:19:14.953 --> 00:19:16.953 disturbed when 375 00:19:16.953 --> 00:19:21.417 Mr Putin rolled out these mobile nuclear bomb shelters, 376 00:19:21.457 --> 00:19:24.419 which is just something to scare the West, I'm sure. 377 00:19:24.739 --> 00:19:27.440 But the fact that he's doing it is a bit of saber-rattling. 378 00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:28.501 But anyway, let's get... 379 00:19:28.661 --> 00:19:35.443 back to more mundane and less unpleasant matters by looking at the dollar round 380 00:19:35.443 --> 00:19:37.443 which is 1802 so a nice rally for the 381 00:19:37.443 --> 00:19:43.165 uh for the red and fall for the dollar to the tune of two-thirds of a percent 382 00:19:43.165 --> 00:19:45.165 british pound against the round is 2277 and the 383 00:19:45.165 --> 00:19:48.086 euro round is 1898 the euro dollar is 105 384 00:19:48.606 --> 00:19:52.608 35 which is a euro which is slightly weaker gold price uh 385 00:19:52.608 --> 00:19:58.309 2667 which is up 18 dollars you per ounce. 386 00:19:58.309 --> 00:20:03.011 The platinum price is still below $1,966, even though it's up $5 on the day. 387 00:20:03.011 --> 00:20:07.873 And the palladium price is $10.39, which is up $15. 388 00:20:07.873 --> 00:20:12.375 In the old days, that used to be meaningful stuff that I would be talking 389 00:20:12.375 --> 00:20:14.375 about now, but nobody cares anymore. 390 00:20:14.375 --> 00:20:15.016 I can hear you two yawning in the background. 391 00:20:16.137 --> 00:20:19.678 Brent crude oil is $73.90, which is up 1.5%. 392 00:20:20.038 --> 00:20:24.540 West Texas crude is up 1.5% as well, $69.78. 393 00:20:24.540 --> 00:20:25.861 Copper's fallen 0.5%. 394 00:20:26.523 --> 00:20:27.947 What else have we got here? 395 00:20:28.087 --> 00:20:29.672 Steel prices up 3.5%. 396 00:20:30.715 --> 00:20:32.200 S&P 500 futures. 397 00:20:33.212 --> 00:20:39.837 are 5,926. 398 00:20:41.898 --> 00:20:47.382 The high, all-time high achieved about a month ago was 6,053. 399 00:20:47.382 --> 00:20:52.145 So it's off, and it's off today by 0.2%, but nonetheless, getting itself ready. 400 00:20:52.245 --> 00:20:54.747 I think warmongering isn't helping the matter. 401 00:20:55.047 --> 00:20:57.809 The South African 10-year bond yield after the 402 00:20:58.469 --> 00:21:02.472 South African Reserve Bank cut rates by a quarter of a percent is 9.23%. 403 00:21:02.648 --> 00:21:09.490 percent and the u.s 10-year bond yield stubbornly high just below 9.40 404 00:21:09.710 --> 00:21:15.192 percent um david what u.s is 9.3 4. 405 00:21:15.192 --> 00:21:21.493 sorry 4.39 percent did i say nine yeah so for the incident yeah maybe one day when 406 00:21:21.493 --> 00:21:23.493 trump gets in 407 00:21:23.493 --> 00:21:28.996 in after two years of a trump administration maybe it will be 9.39 4.39 408 00:21:28.996 --> 00:21:30.996 thank you for pointing that 409 00:21:30.996 --> 00:21:34.015 out david um you And, yeah, Bitcoin is a bit of a go, isn't it? 410 00:21:34.335 --> 00:21:35.256 I mean, goodness me. 411 00:21:35.316 --> 00:21:36.016 It's OK. 412 00:21:36.016 --> 00:21:42.261 So it's 96,320, up one and two thirds percent, 413 00:21:42.261 --> 00:21:42.961 but was higher. 414 00:21:43.782 --> 00:21:47.766 It got to 98,344 earlier today. 415 00:21:48.206 --> 00:21:48.906 What is that? 416 00:21:49.767 --> 00:21:54.071 I just have a worry that there's going to be a bit of a shock in that. 417 00:21:54.151 --> 00:22:00.196 And I just think that trying to push through regulations, you know, and just I 418 00:22:00.196 --> 00:22:02.196 don't know what Trump. 419 00:22:02.196 --> 00:22:04.196 and Mr. 420 00:22:04.196 --> 00:22:05.981 Musk's policy, you know, what their aim is or their agenda. 421 00:22:06.501 --> 00:22:08.963 And I don't know what they want to make, you know, of Bitcoin. 422 00:22:09.003 --> 00:22:13.807 But I think that somewhere along the line, once you try and put this into regulation, 423 00:22:13.807 --> 00:22:15.807 you know, 424 00:22:15.807 --> 00:22:18.852 into a regulatory environment where it enables you to monitor what's happening, 425 00:22:19.152 --> 00:22:23.956 I think it's going to be a lot more difficult for him, the kind of moves that 426 00:22:23.956 --> 00:22:24.216 we see. 427 00:22:24.216 --> 00:22:28.760 Now, in fact, I think all Trump's policies are not just going to glide through as 428 00:22:28.760 --> 00:22:30.760 easily as... 429 00:22:30.760 --> 00:22:30.925 And his relationships as well. 430 00:22:30.945 --> 00:22:33.726 And I can predict one thing for 2025. 431 00:22:34.226 --> 00:22:35.927 Maybe he'll hang on till then. 432 00:22:36.047 --> 00:22:40.629 But I believe that there's going to be a bust up between Trump and 433 00:22:41.409 --> 00:22:43.370 Musk because of these two giant egos. 434 00:22:43.390 --> 00:22:46.791 And one day Trump's going to wake up and say, this chap's more important than I am. 435 00:22:47.592 --> 00:22:48.392 You're fired. 436 00:22:48.832 --> 00:22:50.853 That's what will happen. 437 00:22:51.693 --> 00:22:53.074 They're calling him Elania. 438 00:22:54.054 --> 00:22:54.754 Yes. 439 00:22:54.754 --> 00:22:55.555 Elania. 440 00:22:55.675 --> 00:22:56.676 Yes, exactly. 441 00:22:56.676 --> 00:22:57.376 That's not fair. 442 00:23:00.821 --> 00:23:01.521 Yeah. 443 00:23:01.521 --> 00:23:02.782 Let me tell you why, right? 444 00:23:03.402 --> 00:23:09.145 Is that the other people that have got into Trump's all-road and they want to do 445 00:23:09.145 --> 00:23:11.145 something are doing it because they have a policy. 446 00:23:11.145 --> 00:23:13.145 They want to fight a war. 447 00:23:13.145 --> 00:23:13.867 They want to have a policy out here. 448 00:23:13.867 --> 00:23:17.869 I'm of the impression that both Vivek and Musk are more self-serving. 449 00:23:18.689 --> 00:23:22.771 And they are not going to cut spending. 450 00:23:22.771 --> 00:23:23.971 If they do, it's going to be small. 451 00:23:24.311 --> 00:23:25.352 They can't cut spending that much. 452 00:23:25.752 --> 00:23:32.697 what they are going to do in their respective things like rebecca remember i 453 00:23:32.697 --> 00:23:34.697 told you guys has that company roivant which is a direct you know depends 454 00:23:34.697 --> 00:23:39.622 on the on the on the uh from the way the fda functions so he's going to know 455 00:23:39.622 --> 00:23:41.622 exactly how to mess with the 456 00:23:41.622 --> 00:23:46.347 fda to make his company more valuable right and musk already i think has gotten 457 00:23:46.347 --> 00:23:48.347 approval for five 458 00:23:48.347 --> 00:23:52.791 times more launches on his starship five times it was five more five times more 459 00:23:52.791 --> 00:23:54.791 next year 460 00:23:54.791 --> 00:23:57.101 than he had before And I think that Starship, I mean, 461 00:23:57.101 --> 00:24:00.863 the last valuation was over $200 billion on SpaceX. 462 00:24:01.683 --> 00:24:02.383 That's going to go through. 463 00:24:02.764 --> 00:24:07.986 The Tesla one, I don't think it's going to be as easy, but probably going to do 464 00:24:07.986 --> 00:24:09.986 something with driverless vehicles or whatever. 465 00:24:09.986 --> 00:24:14.108 But the SpaceX one is probably going to go significantly higher than it is right now 466 00:24:14.108 --> 00:24:16.108 because of Trump in there. 467 00:24:16.108 --> 00:24:18.370 And again, I don't think that, you know, the reason that you had fallouts with 468 00:24:18.370 --> 00:24:18.770 like, 469 00:24:19.191 --> 00:24:22.532 which was bolted and you had fallouts with like Tillerson and so on. 470 00:24:23.020 --> 00:24:28.843 was because those guys have actual philosophies, like Bolton wants the world 471 00:24:28.843 --> 00:24:30.843 to look in a certain way. 472 00:24:30.843 --> 00:24:34.766 And you know, Mali and all these other guys have the intelligence of what the 473 00:24:34.766 --> 00:24:36.766 world to look in a certain way. 474 00:24:36.766 --> 00:24:39.989 They weren't just there to make themselves rich or money, as much as you like. 475 00:24:40.089 --> 00:24:46.933 And I think if you're just there to make money, and you don't mess with Trump, you 476 00:24:46.933 --> 00:24:48.933 just give him whatever he wants, you know, say whatever he wants, 477 00:24:48.933 --> 00:24:50.035 feel like RFK and eat at McDonald's if he says so. 478 00:24:52.576 --> 00:24:53.637 I just worked it out, yeah. 479 00:24:53.777 --> 00:24:55.198 But I do think there's a couple of things. 480 00:24:55.198 --> 00:24:58.921 Firstly, it's not Trump that's going to be moving these things. 481 00:24:58.941 --> 00:25:03.244 It's going to be these people that have specific industry requirements. 482 00:25:03.244 --> 00:25:04.845 It's like putting lobbyists in charge of something. 483 00:25:05.426 --> 00:25:08.368 And they're going to do things here that are going to be very, 484 00:25:08.428 --> 00:25:12.931 very paradigm shifting in terms of where the U.S. 485 00:25:12.971 --> 00:25:13.671 government works. 486 00:25:14.392 --> 00:25:17.254 Just because they know what it is, because this is what their companies do. 487 00:25:17.775 --> 00:25:19.436 These are professionals in the industry. 488 00:25:19.972 --> 00:25:26.917 that are coming in and saying exactly how they should be regulated if i was to take 489 00:25:26.917 --> 00:25:28.917 any of us like imagine me and david had to go and be in charge of the 490 00:25:28.917 --> 00:25:33.213 fsca you know what we would do It's not some politician getting involved here. 491 00:25:33.213 --> 00:25:36.754 Me and David at the FSEA, and suddenly, you know, we'd be billionaires, right? 492 00:25:37.434 --> 00:25:38.474 If we had no morals. 493 00:25:39.074 --> 00:25:39.774 Well, there's a thought. 494 00:25:39.774 --> 00:25:40.435 Yes. 495 00:25:44.196 --> 00:25:47.757 Don't forget I introduced you to my little cat. 496 00:25:50.318 --> 00:25:51.258 Okay, well said, Viv. 497 00:25:51.938 --> 00:25:55.039 On the JSC today, Mr Price, the top performer, up 8.3%. 498 00:25:55.479 --> 00:25:56.960 Spar was up 3.75%. 499 00:25:56.980 --> 00:25:58.460 True was up 3.6%. 500 00:25:58.520 --> 00:26:00.642 hanging onto the coattails of other retailers. 501 00:26:00.902 --> 00:26:04.545 And TFG, the same thing, just over 3% higher on the downside. 502 00:26:05.686 --> 00:26:11.991 There's Sibania down 2.75%, Anglo Platinum down another 2.5%, DRD Gold down 2.2%, 503 00:26:12.352 --> 00:26:15.094 and BHP Group down 2.1%. 504 00:26:15.094 --> 00:26:19.198 If you're missing the theme there, they all dig commodities out of the ground. 505 00:26:19.578 --> 00:26:25.143 And with the combination of stagnant commodity prices and a stronger RAND, 506 00:26:25.503 --> 00:26:26.684 that is what's... 507 00:26:26.988 --> 00:26:27.688 happened. 508 00:26:27.688 --> 00:26:30.969 David, give us the closing JSC indices and the value traded, please. 509 00:26:31.169 --> 00:26:37.191 Yeah, the all-share closed up 0.29%, 85523. 510 00:26:37.571 --> 00:26:39.272 Resources, as you mentioned, were down. 511 00:26:39.292 --> 00:26:41.712 The resource index down 1.1%. 512 00:26:42.432 --> 00:26:46.354 The rest of the market up, you know, just driven by those consumer stocks. 513 00:26:46.694 --> 00:26:50.535 The consumer discretionary index up nearly 1.8%. 514 00:26:50.955 --> 00:26:54.576 Overall, the industrial 25 up 0.4%. 515 00:26:55.176 --> 00:27:01.942 uh banks up 1.23 percent so you know financials and industrials did well and 516 00:27:01.942 --> 00:27:03.942 it's strange enough property 517 00:27:03.942 --> 00:27:08.727 shares also creeping up as rates come down and a better feeling about it just on the 518 00:27:08.727 --> 00:27:10.727 value side 519 00:27:10.727 --> 00:27:15.113 yeah interesting to say we were over 22 million i'll give you the billion i'm 520 00:27:15.113 --> 00:27:17.113 going to give you the exact number here uh 521 00:27:17.113 --> 00:27:22.098 probably about 24 or 25 billion but what's interesting and i'm not quite sure there 522 00:27:22.098 --> 00:27:24.098 was a trade that 523 00:27:24.098 --> 00:27:26.098 went through in anglo gold 524 00:27:26.098 --> 00:27:30.986 5.3 billion which made up 23 of the market today so uh there's some cool 525 00:27:31.006 --> 00:27:37.891 productivity there obviously yeah there's obviously a big line that's gone i'm 526 00:27:37.891 --> 00:27:39.891 trying to work out what 527 00:27:39.891 --> 00:27:44.957 uh what time it went through but i'll get that in a second whether it was right at 528 00:27:44.957 --> 00:27:46.957 the end or not no it seems to be steady throughout the day i 529 00:27:46.957 --> 00:27:51.723 think it was an amazing auction okay well watch out for that one consolidation in 530 00:27:51.723 --> 00:27:53.723 the financial services industry 531 00:27:53.723 --> 00:27:54.645 maybe in the gold industry as well We shall see. 532 00:27:55.245 --> 00:28:01.169 Gentlemen, the final note is something that is about an hour and a half away from 533 00:28:01.169 --> 00:28:03.169 me on the 534 00:28:03.169 --> 00:28:06.153 train in a place called Den Haag, or The Hague, and it's the International Criminal 535 00:28:06.153 --> 00:28:08.153 Court. 536 00:28:08.153 --> 00:28:12.417 Now, they have arrest warrants out for some Sudanese leader, 537 00:28:12.858 --> 00:28:16.180 stroke terrorist, I think his name is Bashir, or Bashar, or something. 538 00:28:16.180 --> 00:28:19.182 Anyway, I don't know, that's rude of me, but anyway, there's that. 539 00:28:19.462 --> 00:28:21.564 There's an arrest warrant out for Putin. 540 00:28:22.920 --> 00:28:28.923 And today, David, Netanyahu, yeah, I mean, 541 00:28:28.943 --> 00:28:35.566 I wouldn't want to be Netanyahu's travel agent because he's not going to be getting 542 00:28:35.566 --> 00:28:37.566 any business in the near future. 543 00:28:37.566 --> 00:28:38.567 And also the defence minister as well. 544 00:28:38.807 --> 00:28:41.808 And also, posthumously, I think, because he's dead now, 545 00:28:42.148 --> 00:28:48.431 is the Hamas leader was also slapped with an arrest warrant, which seems to be a bit 546 00:28:48.431 --> 00:28:50.431 meaningless to me. 547 00:28:50.431 --> 00:28:52.431 But more seriously. 548 00:28:52.431 --> 00:28:56.574 These are very serious charges and they do mean something, even though he'll never, 549 00:28:56.574 --> 00:28:58.574 ever be arrested. 550 00:28:58.574 --> 00:29:00.574 David, what do you think? 551 00:29:00.574 --> 00:29:03.317 You know, there's nothing I can say about it. 552 00:29:03.477 --> 00:29:07.119 I mean, the fact that the international court have done what they've done, 553 00:29:07.439 --> 00:29:12.141 whether they're ever promulgated or whether these people are ever arrested. 554 00:29:12.221 --> 00:29:15.122 But you know what's happened. 555 00:29:15.162 --> 00:29:18.663 Of course, there are going to be defense mechanisms, etc. 556 00:29:19.224 --> 00:29:20.244 But I think from... 557 00:29:21.352 --> 00:29:27.476 When I see the G20 get together and everybody's kissing, you know, and they're 558 00:29:27.476 --> 00:29:29.476 all shaking hands, in the meantime they hate each other. 559 00:29:29.476 --> 00:29:34.299 They're all, you know, it's the most dysfunctional kind of G20, or certainly 560 00:29:34.299 --> 00:29:36.299 the United Nations is dysfunctional. 561 00:29:36.299 --> 00:29:38.562 And I've got, listen, Netanyahu's not my favourite person. 562 00:29:38.622 --> 00:29:43.564 I don't know whether he's a criminal of that nature, and I don't know where it's 563 00:29:43.564 --> 00:29:43.744 going to go. 564 00:29:44.125 --> 00:29:46.766 But I think obviously there's going to be an outcry. 565 00:29:46.806 --> 00:29:49.888 When Trump comes in, all it's going to do is... 566 00:29:50.256 --> 00:29:57.201 you know the people who brought these charges mainly south africa it's not going 567 00:29:57.201 --> 00:29:59.201 to india south africa to uh mr trump you know 568 00:29:59.201 --> 00:30:03.925 and you can see it by the appointments he's making so he is mr mr uh ramaphosa is 569 00:30:04.005 --> 00:30:09.269 now um you know for the next year um i think he's a leader of the g20 or 570 00:30:09.289 --> 00:30:15.893 what when i say leader yeah he's the chairman whatever it is but um i you know 571 00:30:15.893 --> 00:30:17.893 i don't think it endears 572 00:30:17.893 --> 00:30:21.892 ourselves to to the americas now i thought they would be making other kind of 573 00:30:21.892 --> 00:30:21.910 overtures. 574 00:30:22.052 --> 00:30:24.958 This is from a long time ago, but who knows? 575 00:30:25.138 --> 00:30:30.530 But my whole point is that, you know, what we're not doing... 576 00:30:31.430 --> 00:30:36.934 And what South Africa is not doing is making any attempt to improve 577 00:30:36.934 --> 00:30:38.934 relationships with the United States. 578 00:30:38.934 --> 00:30:40.934 We think we're cute. 579 00:30:40.934 --> 00:30:42.934 I'm not sure we are. 580 00:30:42.934 --> 00:30:44.934 No. 581 00:30:44.934 --> 00:30:46.934 Viv, your final word from you on this one. 582 00:30:46.934 --> 00:30:49.082 I think one of the points that the ICC makes is that Israel, under the leadership 583 00:30:49.082 --> 00:30:51.082 of Netanyahu, 584 00:30:51.082 --> 00:30:52.284 is using famine as a weapon of war. 585 00:30:52.424 --> 00:30:55.086 In other words, starving the people in Gaza. 586 00:30:55.086 --> 00:30:56.867 And that sounds very emotive, etc. 587 00:30:57.268 --> 00:31:00.370 But when you see 109 trucks being looted. 588 00:31:01.198 --> 00:31:04.100 And they'll say, well, we had nothing to do with that. 589 00:31:04.100 --> 00:31:07.583 The 109 trucks were looted by criminals who are going to sell the food on. 590 00:31:07.883 --> 00:31:11.045 But surely there should have been a military escort or whatever it is. 591 00:31:11.105 --> 00:31:13.027 And I don't want to get too political. 592 00:31:13.327 --> 00:31:15.869 But Viv, the final word on this matter from you. 593 00:31:16.989 --> 00:31:18.570 I don't think it will be Netanyahu that suffers. 594 00:31:18.590 --> 00:31:19.791 The season is mid-70s. 595 00:31:20.292 --> 00:31:23.134 So by the time politics changes enough in the U.S. 596 00:31:23.154 --> 00:31:28.317 for this to be a positive, he'll be in his 90s. You know, we're talking about 597 00:31:28.317 --> 00:31:30.317 probably a decade or two from now. 598 00:31:30.317 --> 00:31:36.022 it's unlikely they're going to arrest him with like you know treatment trial though 599 00:31:36.022 --> 00:31:38.022 it has happened in the past you know to people that you like like former nazi 600 00:31:38.022 --> 00:31:40.022 guards etc 601 00:31:40.022 --> 00:31:43.345 who've been arrested the night is i think it's more of a problem for the commanders 602 00:31:43.345 --> 00:31:45.345 in the 40s and the 30s and stuff in in the the idf at the 603 00:31:45.345 --> 00:31:48.248 moment because what's going to happen is that look i mean here's here's here's a 604 00:31:48.428 --> 00:31:55.412 guaranteed future forecast that pretty pretty trim now the muslim population the 605 00:31:55.412 --> 00:31:57.412 us will be larger you already see they're making a difference 606 00:31:57.412 --> 00:31:59.794 in places like michigan and so on in the us it's going to impact how the U.S. 607 00:31:59.954 --> 00:32:02.095 treats, you know, these kind of things going forward. 608 00:32:02.495 --> 00:32:06.256 And in, like, say, 20, 30 years'time, it's going to be a large enough bloc that you 609 00:32:06.256 --> 00:32:06.276 can't ignore it. 610 00:32:06.636 --> 00:32:12.758 It's already large enough in Europe that you can't really make an anti-Muslim kind 611 00:32:12.758 --> 00:32:14.758 of statement, you know, 612 00:32:14.758 --> 00:32:16.758 without some kind of big backlash. 613 00:32:16.758 --> 00:32:20.540 And so I think that Israel's kind of backing the ICC from the U.S., which is 614 00:32:20.540 --> 00:32:22.540 the only backing it has of real power, 615 00:32:22.540 --> 00:32:22.960 will in, say, two or three decades be gone. 616 00:32:23.401 --> 00:32:25.201 And so if you were, like, dead in your hell, you're dead. 617 00:32:25.621 --> 00:32:28.762 If you are 30, 40 years old at the moment, you're in your 60s and 70s, 618 00:32:29.190 --> 00:32:34.755 And then suddenly someone's going to come to you and arrest you for a war crime you 619 00:32:34.755 --> 00:32:36.755 committed a lifetime ago. 620 00:32:36.755 --> 00:32:38.198 And I think that is the danger of this going forward. 621 00:32:38.198 --> 00:32:43.142 It's not going to be Netanyahu, but it will be people that are currently, like I 622 00:32:43.142 --> 00:32:45.142 said, in their 30s and 40s that are going to be 623 00:32:45.142 --> 00:32:51.028 I would be amazed if at least a few of them don't go to prison for the state in a 624 00:32:51.028 --> 00:32:53.028 couple of decades'time or have some kind of 625 00:32:53.028 --> 00:32:55.028 trial around it. 626 00:32:55.028 --> 00:32:57.894 Because the demographics just work in that way. 627 00:32:58.634 --> 00:33:02.836 Politically, it'll be possible for you to be pro-Israel, 628 00:33:02.896 --> 00:33:09.799 anti-Palestine as a US politician with a national election, I think in the next, 629 00:33:09.799 --> 00:33:11.799 say, 20, 630 00:33:11.799 --> 00:33:13.799 30 years. 631 00:33:13.799 --> 00:33:15.799 Troubled geopolitical times. 632 00:33:15.799 --> 00:33:16.662 And we didn't even mention the Putin nuclear story, 633 00:33:16.682 --> 00:33:20.503 but that'll unfold over the next week before we next speak. 634 00:33:20.523 --> 00:33:25.686 That was Viv Govender from Rensuisse, David Shapiro from Sasson Securities, both 635 00:33:25.686 --> 00:33:27.686 in Johannesburg. 636 00:33:27.686 --> 00:33:29.686 And that was the... 637 00:33:29.686 --> 00:33:30.863 Always excellent Thursday night edition of Viv and Dave, the five o'clock shadow. 638 00:33:32.384 --> 00:33:39.325 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 639 00:33:39.325 --> 00:33:41.325 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 640 00:33:41.325 --> 00:33:43.067 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 641 00:33:43.407 --> 00:33:48.048 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 642 00:33:48.508 --> 00:33:55.470 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 643 00:33:55.470 --> 00:33:57.470 entity other than the speaker or the author. 644 00:33:57.470 --> 00:34:00.960 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 645 00:34:00.960 --> 00:34:01.059 change, 646 00:34:01.220 --> 00:34:03.805 revision and rethinking at any time. 647 00:34:04.105 --> 00:34:06.510 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.