WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as always, on a Wednesday, it's
populated by Skulk Lowe,

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Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in
Cape Town. Here we are, Skulk.

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What is it today?

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The 20th of November. Just a few weeks
away from Christmas.

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Just about four weeks away from Christmas.

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the season of the early Christmas party
and the season of just looking back a

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little bit,

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but also looking forward because last
week, Skulk,

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we both put forward the idea that perhaps
it's not going to be the smoothest

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transition from

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2024 to 2025.

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Do you still believe that or were you
just, you know, talking your book?

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No, no, no, no.

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And as I sit here, I'm not, I'm not, I
mean, I do think that listeners are.

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there should to definitely be looking at
at over exposure to anything i mean for

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now i think the over

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exposure still to to u.s stocks u.s tech
stocks um and one should know that that's

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not gonna

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not gonna not actually be a good thing if
you look at just the cabinet that that

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trump is now uh you know choosing

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or looking at i mean none of them are
really really these these global tech

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lovers I mean, we know Elon Musk's view on
he don't like

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Bill Gates and all those.

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So I think it's going to be interesting
looking at it.

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I mean, we had this conversation last week
where we just looked at

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Trump's three major things.

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I mean, it's the beautiful tax cuts.

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I mean, bringing down the corporate tax
rate to a wonderful.

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It's going to be huge, 15%.

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I mean, yes, it sounds wonderful on paper,

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but this is a country that when it took
office for the first time had

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less than a half a trillion dollars budget
deficit.

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I mean, and back then, and we know that
the U.S.

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has been running a deficit for over two
decades.

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So that's nothing new.

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And somewhere along the line, just by the
way, You know, for the listeners out

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there, what I'm talking about,

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it's like you sitting in the beginning of
the month and say, well,

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my salary is going to be a hundred grand
and this is how I'm budgeting to spend

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this hundred

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grand.

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Yeah.

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And end of the month, inevitably, if you
if you're the US back when when when

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Trump had his first term, end of the
month, he inevitably didn't spend a

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hundred grand is is.

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team spended 198 rand you know or you know
pretty much went way

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over uh i mean nowadays it's it's it's
even more so so half a trillion dollars

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deficit

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and we know how he just went on he started
that 2017 uh perspective rate cut and they

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said that now i want to continue that rate

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cut um a structure that that he proposed
back in 2017.

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what what When you look at the last fiscal
period, which now ended September

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2024, they had a deficit of

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just close to $1.9 trillion.

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Trillion.

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So please tell me, as a really just this
very,

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very simplistic guy, the south tip of
Africa,

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how do you propose, Mr.

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Trump or President

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Trump, how do you propose cutting the tax
rates from

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21% to 15% if you're sitting with a
deficit

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you're currently doing?

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So let's say he's going to find ways.

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He's going to talk about the tariffs,
which I'm going to get to.

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He's going to be talking about the
tariffs.

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And these are the ways how he's going to
be sort of do this kite flying thing.

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But let's say, let's say.

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He gets it right, and he managed to bring
the deficit down.

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What do you think, Lindsay,

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will happen to inflation if you do bring
these tax rates down as we just said?

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He has campaigned as a president who will
bring down inflation.

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Now,

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what he failed to say to his slavishly
loyal supporters is that

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inflation went shooting up.

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Not because of Biden and Harris, but
because of external affairs, i.e.

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supply chain issues, China, and of course,
the war in Europe.

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And it is a war in Europe.

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And let's not forget about that.

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It is a war in Europe, and it's getting
worse and worse.

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And it's very disturbing what's happened
in the last 48 hours with the revamp of

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the nuclear policy of

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Russia.

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But anyway, never mind nuclear.

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The fact is...

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Why was there a revamp?

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Why was it revamped?

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Well, because Biden said you can shoot
whatever you like out of Russia with the

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missiles that we gave you.

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I mean, I can't believe it.

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But Putin must be sitting there gnashing
his teeth.

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And Sergei Lavrov at the G20 meeting
saying, why am I sitting here with you

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people?

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You've just given our enemy the ability to
target 200

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miles into.

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It's unbelievable what's going on.

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I don't even want to talk about it.

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But the point is, my inflation point was
that he was campaigning on a lower

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inflation ticket.

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And that ticket, unfortunately, has just
been ripped up because with tax cuts,

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whether it be at the corporate level or at
the retail, the consumer level, i.e.

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Joe in the street.

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The fact is that that plus tariffs is
going to increase inflation.

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And then people will say, no, wait a
second.

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My shopping basket's gone up under Trump.

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It's now a 5% increase.

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rather than the 2% we had under
Biden-Harris. There's all sorts of

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anomalies, Skalk,

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but it's going to be an incredibly
difficult year for you wealth managers,

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you finance people in 2025.

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Very difficult, Skalk.

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Have a good holiday, I say.

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All roads lead to high inflation, no
matter how you look at this.

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Yes.

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Every single road we're looking.

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I mean, it's like Google Maps to high
inflation all over.

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No matter.

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which way you look at this.

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Because, I mean, we talk about the tax
cuts, inflation.

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I mean, we're talking about these
immigration policies that he proposed.

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I mean, concentration camp type of stuff
that they're talking about.

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Immigration policy.

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Well, okay.

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I mean, a typical American, and please, I
mean, to all the American listeners out

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there, I mean,

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I'm not really.

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But.

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Typically, they're not the hardest
workers.

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I mean, so now you're going to be shipping
off all these Mexicans and people.

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People that come to the United States
because they want to have a better life

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and they're willing to work hard for that
better life,

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whether it be picking beetroots or
strawberries or apples or whatever it is.

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You put an ad in the paper to say an apple
pick is needed because my undocumented

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Mexican has had

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to go back.

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to Mexico City or wherever it is, you're
not going to get any replies.

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I mean, it's a point.

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And it's not being disparaging against
Americans or Mexicans or Ecuadorians or

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whoever it is.

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The fact is that certain people will do
certain things.

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And that's the way the world works.

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It's called demarcation, Skulk.

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And it's going to be a disaster if he gets
millions of people out there over the next

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couple of years.

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A disaster for America.

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An absolute disaster because, I mean,
who's going to do the jobs?

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I mean, as we sit here, the unemployment
rate is 4.1 percent.

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And one can argue that that 4.1 percent is
pretty much people that do not want to

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find a job.

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I mean, so now you ship out all these
immigrants,

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you get this immigration policy.

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A typical American citizen will say, OK,

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I earned $100 last year.

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And this year, they're going to increase
it to $102.50, 2.5%,

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because that's what their inflation aim
is.

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A typical American citizen now can pick
and choose whichever job he wants to do

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because

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the people that want to do the jobs has
been deported or put in a concentration

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camp, whatever you want to call it.

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I mean, he or she is just going to say,
no, no, no, no, wait a minute, wait a

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minute.

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You either pay me 5%, 6%.

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more because I need to do more work, or
I'll just go from company A to company B.

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Now, that, again, is inflationary.

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You know, you've got inflation written
absolutely all over it.

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And then my absolute favorite, and that's
the tariffs.

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The tariffs, the beautiful tariffs.

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They're going to be, they're going to be.

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It's the most beautiful word in the
English dictionary, I think he said once,

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the word tariff.

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I mean, come on now.

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The people he's preaching to have already
voted for him.

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Why does he have to say these things?

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Tariffs are the consequences of tariffs we
need not go into.

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But let me tell you, there are so many
consequences.

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And it's not to him that's going to worry
about it.

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It's the person that goes to Walmart.

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Good numbers from Walmart, by the way,
this week.

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But it's the person with the Walmart
trolley that is going to suffer over the

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next year under Trump.

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Yeah, no, well, Target, they reported,

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and the share price pretty much slumped
17%.

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So, you know, what we won on the Walmart
side, we definitely lost on the

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roundabouts.

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But you're 100% right.

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I mean, we're sitting with these tariffs
that will definitely be inflationary.

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And it's like I said, this is Google Maps
to inflation.

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straight on.

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Don't even pass go.

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We're going to be straight going into an
inflationary environment if the Trump

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trade actually comes into fruition.

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So 20th of January, I think, is going to
be a very important day for me because

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I want to see how many and how strong is
he going to come over and mention

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these things, like I said, tax cuts and
immigration laws and tariffs.

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How strongly is he going to come over?

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Because if he's going to be really, really
strong,

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I'm going to change my tune from we had
inflation in South Africa and we'll get to

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that now.

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But I'm definitely going to be changing my
tune from, yeah, I think we're going to be

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seeing quite a few rate cuts next year to

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I think we're going to see one or two.

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And then brace yourself because we're most
probably in the latter part of next year,

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beginning of 2026,

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going to start looking at the neck hiking
cycle.

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And boy, oh boy, I don't think it's going
to be pretty this time around in actual

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fact i think brace

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yourself because it might look a lot worse
than than

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you know you know my view is on this whole
rate cut thing and rate rise thing and

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interest rate policy is that he

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will put somebody in some patsy as the u.s
treasury secretary obviously ellen's gonna

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gonna have to go and she

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will go uh and he will put someone in

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he'll phone them up and say you've got to
cut rates and the reason why because First

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of all, he's a populist.

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And secondly, because his so-called
empire, which isn't an empire at all, it's

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a crumbling edifice,

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is heavily in debt, and he needs his
interest rate payments to come down.

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So he wants lower interest rates, never
mind if inflation is at 2.5% or 5.5%.

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So he will put someone in, and when he
phones them up, they will do what he says.

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So watch out for the new US Treasury
Secretary.

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Yeah, he needs...

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Because if...

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what you say actually had to happen and he
forces interest rates to come down,

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that will mean that the dollar will be
under the most pressure.

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And we know, we've heard him say that he
feels the dollar is way too strong.

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He wants the dollar to be quite a bit
weaker.

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And why?

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I mean, you can't bring in these tariffs.

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And because a stronger dollar would just
sort of just.

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to neutralize these tariffs.

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So I think you're right.

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Then we'll see a much weaker dollar.

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And I think that's a dangerous trade,
really, really dangerous trade.

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I don't know.

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I just get a very, very uncomfortable
feeling as I'm sitting here.

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And then while we're sitting here, as you
mentioned,

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00:13:23.869 --> 00:13:29.333
we've got the outgoing president standing
in the Amazon and saying, guys, we're

239
00:13:29.333 --> 00:13:29.513
going to be...

240
00:13:29.693 --> 00:13:36.175
Yeah, you can take all our crown war
jewels, Lord of War, and then, I don't

241
00:13:36.175 --> 00:13:38.175
know if you've seen the clip,

242
00:13:38.175 --> 00:13:41.776
then he ends off and he turns around and
he starts walking into the forest.

243
00:13:43.557 --> 00:13:44.957
He's probably still walking.

244
00:13:45.037 --> 00:13:46.358
Did he go the wrong way again?

245
00:13:46.698 --> 00:13:48.638
He's done that before.

246
00:13:48.638 --> 00:13:49.438
No shame.

247
00:13:49.778 --> 00:13:50.699
The forest.

248
00:13:51.899 --> 00:13:53.720
Anyway.

249
00:13:53.740 --> 00:13:58.061
I think that Joe Biden is basically saying
that I'm only in here for another couple

250
00:13:58.061 --> 00:13:58.201
of weeks.

251
00:13:58.361 --> 00:13:59.061
Let me stuff.

252
00:13:59.341 --> 00:14:02.463
Trump up a little bit because he's going
to have to reverse all these policies.

253
00:14:02.724 --> 00:14:05.185
So he said, you can send your missiles
wherever you like.

254
00:14:05.445 --> 00:14:11.329
You can have these anti-personnel
landmines, which he's just approved as

255
00:14:11.329 --> 00:14:13.329
well, and to hack off

256
00:14:13.329 --> 00:14:17.994
Putin because then Trump will have to
rebuild the extraordinary relationship he

257
00:14:17.994 --> 00:14:19.994
has with Putin.

258
00:14:19.994 --> 00:14:21.994
And that's it.

259
00:14:21.994 --> 00:14:23.994
I'm sure it's just spite.

260
00:14:23.994 --> 00:14:25.994
I'm absolutely certain of it.

261
00:14:25.994 --> 00:14:27.994
Let's have a look at the JSC today.

262
00:14:27.994 --> 00:14:29.994
And the one thing that stands out is a
company that you and I both have dealings

263
00:14:29.994 --> 00:14:31.994
with.

264
00:14:31.994 --> 00:14:33.994
It's 91.

265
00:14:33.994 --> 00:14:35.994
The share price is up a couple of percent.

266
00:14:35.994 --> 00:14:37.994
Let me ask you this question.

267
00:14:37.994 --> 00:14:39.994
You have to ask me honestly.

268
00:14:39.994 --> 00:14:41.994
Would you choose 91 or would you choose an
S&P combined with a JSC

269
00:14:41.994 --> 00:14:43.994
ETF tracker, for example?

270
00:14:43.994 --> 00:14:46.976
What is the difference between buying 91
and buying the two products that I just

271
00:14:46.976 --> 00:14:47.016
mentioned?

272
00:14:47.877 --> 00:14:49.198
The pros and the cons of both.

273
00:14:49.739 --> 00:14:50.900
That's a poser for you.

274
00:14:51.900 --> 00:14:55.043
I mean, okay, so firstly, why choose?

275
00:14:55.043 --> 00:14:57.425
I mean, as a wealth manager.

276
00:14:58.041 --> 00:14:59.382
I don't need to choose.

277
00:14:59.802 --> 00:15:01.082
I can use them all three.

278
00:15:01.162 --> 00:15:03.843
And in a lot of circumstances, it's great
to use them all three.

279
00:15:05.684 --> 00:15:06.685
Well, I'm asking you to choose.

280
00:15:06.705 --> 00:15:11.767
That's why I'm just saying if you had the
choice of the two and you're not allowed

281
00:15:11.767 --> 00:15:13.767
to have all three, which one would it be?

282
00:15:13.767 --> 00:15:14.748
Would it be the two ETFs or would it be
91?

283
00:15:15.860 --> 00:15:17.261
I would still use 91.

284
00:15:17.321 --> 00:15:23.685
I mean, I know, I mean, these are people
that previously I've worked with, this is

285
00:15:23.685 --> 00:15:25.685
people that I've,

286
00:15:25.685 --> 00:15:29.029
you know, I mean, 91 basically is the year
this company started.

287
00:15:29.329 --> 00:15:32.191
1991.

288
00:15:32.191 --> 00:15:38.836
Yeah, the year we started this company, I
saw this company being born, how this

289
00:15:38.836 --> 00:15:40.836
company has grown, and it is a wonderful.

290
00:15:40.836 --> 00:15:46.257
wonderful company i can say this because
i'm not invested and i can say it as well

291
00:15:46.257 --> 00:15:48.257
and even though that they've supported me
over the years it really

292
00:15:48.257 --> 00:15:52.942
is an amazing company and the reason i say
that i mean apart from their performances

293
00:15:52.942 --> 00:15:54.942
and everything and the wealth that they've

294
00:15:54.942 --> 00:15:56.304
created is that they retain their staff i

295
00:15:56.324 --> 00:16:02.308
mean i'm talking to people today that i
was speaking to a dozen years ago no

296
00:16:03.429 --> 00:16:07.392
they do i mean i mean look at the fund
managers in those i mean

297
00:16:08.012 --> 00:16:14.674
I'm not even going to name names because
then people are going to think I'm just

298
00:16:14.674 --> 00:16:16.674
name dropping.

299
00:16:16.674 --> 00:16:20.075
But you can look at these fund managers,
head fund managers in their teams.

300
00:16:20.616 --> 00:16:23.056
This is individuals that have been
managing funds.

301
00:16:23.516 --> 00:16:24.357
I mean, Bicard.

302
00:16:24.997 --> 00:16:26.217
I was going to say Bicard, yeah.

303
00:16:26.357 --> 00:16:27.057
Look at him.

304
00:16:27.057 --> 00:16:30.098
He's in New York now, but he's still a 91
person through and through.

305
00:16:31.478 --> 00:16:32.359
Client research.

306
00:16:32.359 --> 00:16:35.239
I mean, you can call all of them.

307
00:16:35.279 --> 00:16:39.741
I mean, the individual says… been with the
company for many, many years.

308
00:16:39.781 --> 00:16:45.742
But I mean, yeah, I mean, you mentioned
it, you know, the results today, nothing

309
00:16:45.742 --> 00:16:47.742
really new.

310
00:16:47.742 --> 00:16:48.323
And why I'm saying this, because they
guided very, very well.

311
00:16:48.783 --> 00:16:51.864
We know that they've had some serious
outflows.

312
00:16:53.104 --> 00:16:55.825
So net assets has grown,

313
00:16:56.525 --> 00:17:00.546
but there's been some serious outflows
during this period.

314
00:17:00.887 --> 00:17:02.247
The big surprise today.

315
00:17:02.587 --> 00:17:06.268
And this, I mean, immediately when I saw
this announcement, I started

316
00:17:06.388 --> 00:17:13.252
calling around because i didn't i mean i
didn't get it even get a whiff of this and

317
00:17:13.252 --> 00:17:15.252
i started calling around some of my old

318
00:17:15.252 --> 00:17:19.816
colleagues and friends and i said well did
you did you had any idea and everybody

319
00:17:19.816 --> 00:17:21.816
said this was the

320
00:17:21.816 --> 00:17:24.598
best kept secret under the sun and that
that is sun

321
00:17:24.678 --> 00:17:30.522
long basically all the active managed yes
goes to 91.

322
00:17:30.522 --> 00:17:34.684
yeah and that's 400 billion rands worth of
assets

323
00:17:34.964 --> 00:17:37.685
That's now going to be transferred to 91.

324
00:17:37.685 --> 00:17:42.928
So everything that we've had in the
trading updates recently by saying, well,

325
00:17:42.948 --> 00:17:47.891
we have these major outflows, or we had
quite a bit of outflows,

326
00:17:48.711 --> 00:17:52.473
now sort of just been neutralized with
this one, let's call it, announcement

327
00:17:52.473 --> 00:17:52.513
today.

328
00:17:54.094 --> 00:17:57.476
That is, I would say, a very, very big
announcement.

329
00:17:57.476 --> 00:18:02.139
And I think for a company like Asanlam to
feel that, well,

330
00:18:03.099 --> 00:18:04.700
they're active management.

331
00:18:05.040 --> 00:18:09.664
is going to be in better hands being in 91
than trying to do it in us.

332
00:18:09.944 --> 00:18:14.648
I mean, that sort of answers your first
question, what would I choose?

333
00:18:14.928 --> 00:18:20.213
I mean, even Sunlum said, well, if we want
somebody to actively manage funds,

334
00:18:20.713 --> 00:18:21.954
we will put it in 91.

335
00:18:22.174 --> 00:18:22.995
There's a little bit of a but.

336
00:18:23.636 --> 00:18:29.300
The big but is Sunlum naturally said,
well, they're going to keep their

337
00:18:29.300 --> 00:18:29.480
passives.

338
00:18:29.841 --> 00:18:31.862
So they're going to be growing their
passives as well.

339
00:18:32.062 --> 00:18:35.460
And for the listeners out there, don't
know the passives.

340
00:18:36.121 --> 00:18:39.121
When you see anything Satrix, that is
Sanlam as well.

341
00:18:39.161 --> 00:18:43.903
So they're going to be keeping the passive
side, the Satrix side,

342
00:18:44.543 --> 00:18:47.484
but all the actives will be now, in the
future, be managed.

343
00:18:47.504 --> 00:18:52.885
It's a huge story, and as you quite
rightly say, in a very leaky financial

344
00:18:52.885 --> 00:18:54.885
services world in South Africa,

345
00:18:54.885 --> 00:18:55.186
to have kept this a secret.

346
00:18:56.226 --> 00:18:57.806
Congratulations to both sides.

347
00:18:58.447 --> 00:19:03.568
And what a coup for 91. And well done to
Sanlam to say, look, put my hands up.

348
00:19:03.864 --> 00:19:06.365
We haven't got the skills and we're going
to give it to you.

349
00:19:07.005 --> 00:19:08.285
We think you can do better.

350
00:19:09.305 --> 00:19:10.005
So well done.

351
00:19:10.086 --> 00:19:13.567
And that's one of the reasons why the
share price has done so well today.

352
00:19:13.627 --> 00:19:15.527
Scalp, let's have a look at the markets
now.

353
00:19:15.527 --> 00:19:16.707
The RAND, that's okay.

354
00:19:17.008 --> 00:19:17.928
That's actually pretty good.

355
00:19:18.008 --> 00:19:19.548
18.12 against the US dollar.

356
00:19:20.148 --> 00:19:22.749
British pound against the RAND is 22.93.

357
00:19:22.769 --> 00:19:26.290
And the Euro RAND is 19.08.

358
00:19:27.867 --> 00:19:33.850
Eurodollar is 105.25, the British pound
against the US dollar is 126.55,

359
00:19:33.850 --> 00:19:36.532
the gold price 26.46.

360
00:19:36.912 --> 00:19:41.314
Was I looking at this last week and it was
$100 lower than that, 25.50 or something?

361
00:19:41.514 --> 00:19:45.857
Anyway, whatever it is, it's up $19 today
to 26.46.

362
00:19:46.137 --> 00:19:52.020
Platinum price still mired in three
figures at $9.67 an ounce, which is down

363
00:19:52.020 --> 00:19:54.020
$6.

364
00:19:54.020 --> 00:19:54.862
And Palladium has regained four figures.

365
00:19:55.298 --> 00:19:56.719
At 10.20 in the last few days.

366
00:19:57.019 --> 00:19:59.520
At 10.21, which is down 14, though.

367
00:20:00.020 --> 00:20:04.822
Other commodities, Brent crude oil,
$73.68, which is up half a percent.

368
00:20:05.302 --> 00:20:09.944
And West Texas crude, 69.38, which is up
0.2 percent.

369
00:20:10.024 --> 00:20:11.345
Copper up half a percent.

370
00:20:11.505 --> 00:20:12.365
What else have we got here?

371
00:20:12.385 --> 00:20:13.186
Anything interesting?

372
00:20:13.566 --> 00:20:14.266
No, not really.

373
00:20:14.406 --> 00:20:18.688
The S&P 500 futures market was looking
today at the high for the year.

374
00:20:18.728 --> 00:20:22.270
6,053 was the high for the futures.

375
00:20:22.910 --> 00:20:29.153
December futures currently 5,888, down
nearly 1%, which is,

376
00:20:29.253 --> 00:20:31.213
you know, Trump won't like that.

377
00:20:31.614 --> 00:20:36.295
The South African 10-year is 9.30%.

378
00:20:36.416 --> 00:20:41.077
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is
4.40%.

379
00:20:41.097 --> 00:20:43.518
And Bitcoin, which has had an astonishing
time,

380
00:20:44.019 --> 00:20:49.601
is now 94,637, up 2.4%,

381
00:20:49.601 --> 00:20:51.802
at an all-time record high, as we...

382
00:20:52.478 --> 00:20:57.021
And speak, Skull, the Bitcoin trade is
amazing, isn't it?

383
00:20:57.442 --> 00:21:00.684
If a client comes to you and says, look,
here's my portfolio.

384
00:21:00.724 --> 00:21:04.707
I've got 10 million to give to you at PSG
Wealth Older.

385
00:21:05.067 --> 00:21:08.749
Would you say, yeah, let's put a bit into
Bitcoin if they asked you to do so?

386
00:21:09.890 --> 00:21:11.111
No, I don't.

387
00:21:11.752 --> 00:21:12.452
I haven't done it.

388
00:21:13.032 --> 00:21:17.616
I will most probably not do it anytime
soon until it's probably properly,

389
00:21:17.616 --> 00:21:19.616
properly.

390
00:21:19.616 --> 00:21:20.658
I'm not talking about these worse than
things, you know.

391
00:21:21.078 --> 00:21:27.964
moving towards when it's properly
regulated um then then naturally i will

392
00:21:27.964 --> 00:21:34.469
be looking at it and but but anything i
mean usually when something sounds too

393
00:21:34.469 --> 00:21:36.469
good to be true it often is

394
00:21:36.469 --> 00:21:41.275
and you just mentioned it we're
approaching a hundred thousand dollars per

395
00:21:41.275 --> 00:21:43.275
bitcoin you know this conversation a few

396
00:21:43.275 --> 00:21:46.479
weeks ago when we say yeah it's most
probably on its way again to sixty

397
00:21:46.479 --> 00:21:48.479
thousand dollars and we

398
00:21:48.479 --> 00:21:49.041
know if we're going to take the clock back

399
00:21:50.458 --> 00:21:57.285
three four years ago it was trading at
four or five thousand dollars per bitcoin

400
00:21:57.285 --> 00:21:59.285
so a year and a half ago it was fifteen

401
00:21:59.285 --> 00:22:04.353
thousand now look at it six times higher
more than six times higher so so how i

402
00:22:04.353 --> 00:22:06.353
mean as a wealth manager i'm

403
00:22:06.353 --> 00:22:09.078
really going to be struggling you know
putting putting a lot of my clients

404
00:22:09.198 --> 00:22:13.482
even even if it's well regulated into
something that can go from 15,000

405
00:22:13.903 --> 00:22:18.286
US dollars to 100,000 US dollars in a
matter of a year.

406
00:22:18.286 --> 00:22:23.670
When you can't actually say, when you say
to someone who's invested in it, most

407
00:22:23.670 --> 00:22:25.670
people, I would say,

408
00:22:25.670 --> 00:22:27.670
why are you investing in it?

409
00:22:27.670 --> 00:22:29.670
And they'll say, well, because it's going
up.

410
00:22:29.670 --> 00:22:32.176
I mean, I don't know, the South Sea bubble
and all sorts of other bubbles over

411
00:22:32.176 --> 00:22:34.176
centuries.

412
00:22:34.176 --> 00:22:34.817
The tulip bubble in the Netherlands, for
example.

413
00:22:34.857 --> 00:22:35.898
Why are you buying a tulip?

414
00:22:36.238 --> 00:22:37.759
Because the price is going up.

415
00:22:38.500 --> 00:22:39.541
Do you think that will happen?

416
00:22:39.661 --> 00:22:41.262
Do you think it has the potential?

417
00:22:41.502 --> 00:22:48.368
but one day people say no it's got no use
whatsoever it uses too much energy to

418
00:22:48.368 --> 00:22:50.368
produce the

419
00:22:50.368 --> 00:22:55.193
the blasted things and all the encryption
and all that sort of thing do you think

420
00:22:55.193 --> 00:22:57.193
one day it will be one of the biggest um

421
00:22:57.193 --> 00:23:00.578
financial disasters ever or do you think
that we are being too pessimistic i

422
00:23:00.578 --> 00:23:07.043
i do think it's got the the the
possibility um of being one of the the

423
00:23:07.043 --> 00:23:09.043
worst financial

424
00:23:09.043 --> 00:23:13.907
disasters yes i do think it can happen i
mean if you if you read what's happened

425
00:23:13.907 --> 00:23:15.907
with the old tulip mania of the

426
00:23:15.907 --> 00:23:20.529
1600s. I mean, there's not a major
difference between the two.

427
00:23:21.609 --> 00:23:22.309
You're quite right.

428
00:23:23.170 --> 00:23:24.350
No one needs a tulip bulb.

429
00:23:25.390 --> 00:23:26.090
No.

430
00:23:26.090 --> 00:23:26.871
What are you going to do with it?

431
00:23:27.391 --> 00:23:31.552
But, okay, be that as it may, we're living
in very, very difficult times.

432
00:23:32.833 --> 00:23:37.274
I mean, we know that there's quite a few
countries that's got sanctions on them.

433
00:23:38.014 --> 00:23:41.136
These guys can't trade in, for instance,
Russian rubles.

434
00:23:41.597 --> 00:23:43.278
So what do they trade in?

435
00:23:43.858 --> 00:23:45.099
They go and buy Bitcoin.

436
00:23:45.119 --> 00:23:49.282
And they can merrily, merrily continue
doing business as usual.

437
00:23:51.543 --> 00:23:52.824
Yeah, well done to Ecuador.

438
00:23:52.844 --> 00:23:53.905
I think it's Ecuador, isn't it?

439
00:23:53.925 --> 00:23:58.848
That was the first country that the huge
reserve bank said, look,

440
00:23:59.289 --> 00:24:05.873
we are going to invest in this almost as
not an asset of national reserve

441
00:24:06.213 --> 00:24:07.014
to support the...

442
00:24:07.974 --> 00:24:14.789
the country but for goodness sake that was
around about 15 20 000 when they decided

443
00:24:14.789 --> 00:24:16.789
to do that so they've made five times
their money

444
00:24:16.789 --> 00:24:18.789
almost

445
00:24:18.789 --> 00:24:22.984
yeah yeah no for sure for sure but because
it's um yeah it's it's always i mean

446
00:24:23.244 --> 00:24:29.830
naturally any everyone feels one of the
kids call it fomo the fear of missing out

447
00:24:29.830 --> 00:24:31.830
i mean we all we all feel

448
00:24:31.830 --> 00:24:33.053
fomo when when something goes up
especially

449
00:24:33.053 --> 00:24:40.039
if it's something as well known as a thing
called a bitcoin um but i i i don't know i

450
00:24:40.059 --> 00:24:43.122
just when whenever i look at something and
i think man

451
00:24:43.598 --> 00:24:50.520
this could really end in tears yeah then
i'll mess out gladly i'll mess out gladly

452
00:24:50.520 --> 00:24:52.520
i can tell

453
00:24:52.520 --> 00:24:56.762
you something as you get older skunk which
we all are every single day we've got

454
00:24:56.762 --> 00:24:58.762
older since we first started speaking 15
minutes ago

455
00:24:58.762 --> 00:25:04.104
the fomo factor disappears you say
someone's made some money good good luck

456
00:25:04.104 --> 00:25:06.104
to you i hope it makes you happy

457
00:25:06.104 --> 00:25:11.185
that's what i always say to people did you
buy this did you buy that no i didn't i

458
00:25:11.185 --> 00:25:13.185
did i said well good luck mate well

459
00:25:13.185 --> 00:25:13.206
done spend it wisely

460
00:25:13.426 --> 00:25:19.892
your profits that is on the jsc today we
buy cars i can't even bring myself to say

461
00:25:19.892 --> 00:25:21.892
that name for a company

462
00:25:21.892 --> 00:25:27.218
anyway it's up nearly five percent pick
and pay up four and a half percent a

463
00:25:27.218 --> 00:25:29.218
sassel up four percent we've spoken about
that company

464
00:25:29.218 --> 00:25:31.362
so many times just below 97 rand a share
tfg used

465
00:25:31.362 --> 00:25:37.928
to be called for sheening up 3.7 percent
and could buy an or at 3.4 percent on the

466
00:25:37.928 --> 00:25:39.928
downside the ones that i can

467
00:25:39.928 --> 00:25:43.111
recognize northam's down 1.8%, SAPPY down
1.8% as well,

468
00:25:43.671 --> 00:25:48.752
1.7% down for Bytes, and DRD Gold down
1.6%.

469
00:25:48.752 --> 00:25:50.533
Do you think gold's running out of steam,
Skulk?

470
00:25:51.433 --> 00:25:52.673
No, no, not at all.

471
00:25:53.474 --> 00:25:54.174
I don't think so.

472
00:25:55.034 --> 00:26:01.756
Lindsay, I mean, we started off this
conversation talking about Trump trade,

473
00:26:01.756 --> 00:26:03.756
and we will be ending this conversation.

474
00:26:03.756 --> 00:26:08.798
I mean, when you look at his first term as
president of the United States in 2016,

475
00:26:08.798 --> 00:26:10.798
that period between...

476
00:26:10.798 --> 00:26:14.482
2016 and 2020, the gold price increased by
69% in his first term.

477
00:26:15.043 --> 00:26:17.385
Do I think the second verse will sound
like the first?

478
00:26:17.725 --> 00:26:23.730
Yes, I do think so because naturally I
mean we're talking about a guy that's

479
00:26:23.730 --> 00:26:25.730
already saying, well,

480
00:26:25.730 --> 00:26:27.730
we're going to do tax cuts.

481
00:26:27.730 --> 00:26:29.730
We're going to do immigration.

482
00:26:29.730 --> 00:26:31.730
We're going to do these tariffs.

483
00:26:31.730 --> 00:26:32.557
Effectively, he's not going to be reducing
the U.S.

484
00:26:32.657 --> 00:26:33.357
debt.

485
00:26:33.357 --> 00:26:35.019
He's going to be increasing the U.S.

486
00:26:35.079 --> 00:26:35.779
debt.

487
00:26:35.779 --> 00:26:38.402
And man, oh man, do I mean just go

488
00:26:38.702 --> 00:26:45.525
draw a graph just go draw a graph the debt
to well u.s debt to gdp or what they call

489
00:26:45.525 --> 00:26:45.965
it

490
00:26:45.965 --> 00:26:50.047
public u.s public debt to gdp what is it
now what's the percentage over 100 percent

491
00:26:50.987 --> 00:26:57.670
120 percent and remember when he started
office 2016 was 98

492
00:26:57.930 --> 00:27:04.593
and we know how frowned upon uh everybody
was two weeks ago when when when it came

493
00:27:04.593 --> 00:27:06.593
out that the uk is trading at 98 percent

494
00:27:06.593 --> 00:27:12.116
uh public debt to gdp but leave that 120
we know he's going to be increased but

495
00:27:12.116 --> 00:27:14.116
just take that graph just go say public

496
00:27:14.116 --> 00:27:14.437
debt to gdp add the gold price

497
00:27:14.477 --> 00:27:21.400
on the exactly same graph and draw it out
over 20 years and man then you tell me you

498
00:27:21.400 --> 00:27:21.740
don't

499
00:27:21.740 --> 00:27:28.083
think the gold price will will continue
running as he merrily increase the debt of

500
00:27:28.083 --> 00:27:30.083
the u.s okay so let's say it goes up

501
00:27:30.083 --> 00:27:34.605
60 70 what's 60 of the current level of
2650 that's another what

502
00:27:34.605 --> 00:27:40.870
1500 on the top So this thing is going to
$4,000 to $5,000 per ounce,

503
00:27:41.150 --> 00:27:43.051
according to your calculations.

504
00:27:44.773 --> 00:27:45.974
No, no, no, no, no.

505
00:27:46.434 --> 00:27:48.356
I think you might be putting words in my
mouth.

506
00:27:48.436 --> 00:27:49.156
I mean, you're asking.

507
00:27:49.156 --> 00:27:49.856
What do you mean?

508
00:27:49.856 --> 00:27:54.321
You just said when he was first in office,
the price went up 69%.

509
00:27:54.381 --> 00:27:57.603
And you're talking about a replication of
that performance.

510
00:27:58.865 --> 00:28:03.028
So, yes, I do think we're going to see a
similar trajectory.

511
00:28:03.108 --> 00:28:05.170
I mean, and I think what we've seen.

512
00:28:05.654 --> 00:28:09.537
in the gold price over the past, let's
call it, remember,

513
00:28:09.597 --> 00:28:12.780
gold price was started this year at
$2,000.

514
00:28:13.360 --> 00:28:17.203
I mean, it's now trading, you know, $2,600
and something.

515
00:28:17.203 --> 00:28:19.926
25% higher, yeah, more than that.

516
00:28:20.166 --> 00:28:24.509
A lot of these stuff we just mentioned has
really now been priced in.

517
00:28:24.930 --> 00:28:31.255
But I don't want to call it, I like to
lean on people that's way more intelligent

518
00:28:31.255 --> 00:28:33.255
than I am.

519
00:28:33.255 --> 00:28:35.058
We just had Goldman Sachs that came out.

520
00:28:36.579 --> 00:28:42.603
I think it was two, three days ago, where
they mentioned, well, they see a world

521
00:28:42.603 --> 00:28:44.603
price anything between

522
00:28:44.603 --> 00:28:44.985
$70 and $85.

523
00:28:45.065 --> 00:28:47.506
That doesn't sound too weird.

524
00:28:48.067 --> 00:28:53.210
But they're seeing a gold price over
$3,000 by December next year.

525
00:28:54.931 --> 00:28:56.633
I think that's rather conservative,
actually.

526
00:28:56.993 --> 00:28:57.833
I do think so.

527
00:28:58.014 --> 00:29:00.375
Time-wise, anyway.

528
00:29:00.655 --> 00:29:02.497
So will I be selling my gold anytime soon?

529
00:29:02.577 --> 00:29:03.277
We'll know.

530
00:29:03.277 --> 00:29:03.857
No, you won't.

531
00:29:03.857 --> 00:29:04.358
You'll be adding.

532
00:29:04.682 --> 00:29:10.250
on any dips i would imagine give us the
closing jsc indices and the value traded

533
00:29:10.250 --> 00:29:12.250
if you would scalp low

534
00:29:12.250 --> 00:29:17.719
so the jsc closed today at 85 275 points
that is a beautiful i can quote my

535
00:29:18.560 --> 00:29:25.226
student incoming president a beautiful 90
basis points in the green today the jc top

536
00:29:25.226 --> 00:29:25.385
40

537
00:29:25.726 --> 00:29:29.089
also closed 84 basis points positive while

538
00:29:29.089 --> 00:29:36.075
the resources were up 93 basis points
industrials up 65 basis points with the

539
00:29:36.075 --> 00:29:38.075
financials doing doing really really

540
00:29:38.075 --> 00:29:39.558
well one point two two percent and even
the sap

541
00:29:39.738 --> 00:29:46.382
property index they were positive today uh
in this in the case of 0.23 percent when

542
00:29:46.382 --> 00:29:46.521
we look at the

543
00:29:46.662 --> 00:29:53.626
the current uh well let's just cover the
value trade value trade today just have 20

544
00:29:53.626 --> 00:29:55.626
billion traded on the jsc

545
00:29:55.626 --> 00:29:57.626
so that's

546
00:29:57.626 --> 00:30:02.330
19.5 not too bad but we still want to see
it you know suppose that it's called a 20

547
00:30:02.330 --> 00:30:04.330
billion mark and i think the one

548
00:30:04.330 --> 00:30:08.714
you mentioned at the the the s p 500 yes s
p 500

549
00:30:08.894 --> 00:30:15.816
did recover somewhat some of its its early
losses now trading you know 60 basis

550
00:30:15.816 --> 00:30:17.816
points negative nasdaq down 80

551
00:30:17.816 --> 00:30:22.598
basis points and the dow jones are now
just shy just shy of going into positive

552
00:30:22.598 --> 00:30:24.598
territory did i ask you this last week

553
00:30:24.598 --> 00:30:26.679
and the question is have you had your
christmas party yet and

554
00:30:26.799 --> 00:30:32.780
if not when is it and where are you going
okay so so we had this we'll keep this

555
00:30:32.860 --> 00:30:37.682
quiet i'm sorry my short-term memory uh
lost

556
00:30:38.702 --> 00:30:45.626
he's trying me another conversation where
just by the way whatever you remember yeah

557
00:30:45.626 --> 00:30:47.626
whatever your name is

558
00:30:50.469 --> 00:30:56.673
oh man oh man we are getting old lindsay
we are getting old but we're getting

559
00:30:56.673 --> 00:30:58.673
better it's like red wine okay

560
00:30:58.673 --> 00:31:03.857
good scalp thank you very much your time
as always scalp glow is a portfolio

561
00:31:03.857 --> 00:31:05.857
manager at psg wealth old oak in cape town
and

562
00:31:05.857 --> 00:31:10.047
that was the five o'clock shadow The views
and opinions expressed in these podcasts

563
00:31:10.047 --> 00:31:12.047
are those of Lindsay Williams and

564
00:31:12.047 --> 00:31:16.529
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy, position or opinion of any

565
00:31:16.529 --> 00:31:18.529
other agency, organisation,

566
00:31:18.529 --> 00:31:21.510
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

567
00:31:21.970 --> 00:31:28.932
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

568
00:31:28.932 --> 00:31:30.932
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

569
00:31:30.932 --> 00:31:35.394
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

570
00:31:35.394 --> 00:31:37.394
change, revision and revision.

571
00:31:37.394 --> 00:31:39.394
and rethinking at any time.

572
00:31:39.394 --> 00:31:39.962
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
