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You know, when you're a sailor and you get
stuck in a particular weather system, and

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it's called the doldrums.

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I mean, there's obviously lots going on
all the time.

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But at the moment, we've had the election,
we've had interest rate decisions, we've

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had inflation data this week from the
United States,

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we've had all the results out.

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And as I said, the thing that's really
fascinating me, David, is the appointment

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of the Trump cabinet,

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which is quite outrageous in certain ways.

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What do you think?

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It is outrageous.

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I know there's some, you know, People are
celebrating certain people like Marco

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Rubio.

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On the other hand,

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what interests me is that this is a very
pro-Israel

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cabinet or appointments.

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If you understand the people that are
there in terms of what they represent,

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and it's Mark Huckabee, another
appointment as ambassador to Israel.

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So...

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And it's, you know, from that point of
view, it's very, very interesting.

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I didn't think that he'd go to those
levels or so, obviously, in that

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direction.

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Which does, I don't know what that means
and how this is going to unfold.

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But he certainly makes his sentiment
known.

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And we'll wait to, you know, wait to see
the rest.

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Yeah, it's interesting with Huckabee
because...

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The footage has emerged, of course.

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I mean, I don't know why these people say
these things and then get surprised when

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six, seven years later they resurface.

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He was talking to a couple of Jewish chaps
and he said,

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there is no such thing as a Palestinian
and the West Bank doesn't exist.

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Now, I don't know.

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I don't know.

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If you were Donald Trump, Viv, would you
look at that and say,

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can't inflame attentions any more than
they are by appointing this chap?

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I mean.

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I don't know.

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I know Trump is like nobody else in
politics,

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but it just seems to me that he should
have maybe withdrawn that ambassadorial

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role for Huckabee.

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Am I wrong?

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Trump is the one that said he wants to
turn Gaza into a fucking...

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Like, I mean, Trump is very
anti-Palestine, very pro-Israel.

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I think if you're looking at it as a
larger scale, what he's going to do is

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he's going to go pro-Israel and go
anti-Ukraine.

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That is going to be his general kind of
thing.

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and I think he's going to use the support
for Israel, which is always, I think, a

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bit deeper than the support for Ukraine
was,

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to basically use one to cover the other.

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That's my impression.

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David, I think also, did you mention the
UN ambassador?

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Oh, yeah, very, very much.

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She was the one that was highly critical
of the colleges.

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Remember, she was the one they mocked all
the time for her shrieky voice.

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But she was the one who challenged all the
presidents from Harvard,

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who else, from Columbia and so on.

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Very not, I don't know whether to call her
right wing, but certainly conservative.

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And to put her at the UN, you know what's
going to happen, sure.

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But also, this is actually the
conventional text.

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the unconventional picks is the person for
defense which is going to be excellent

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exit yeah gosh

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he's a major right in this international
card look he did serve in in war uh right

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but he was not it's not like a a

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general which is that you go for uh he's
the crocs news host then

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there's tulsi gabbard who's going to be in
charge of uh national intelligence okay

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and uh she's gotten

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some very strong links to assad and putin
i doubt like

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people say that she's actually as a a
asset because nowadays if you were an

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asset i mean how would you communicate
they would bug your

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phones it's impossible to be like you know
uh and not be caught like if you're

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watching you if they're not watching you
yeah you can get away with but they're

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watching you you'll be caught so i doubt
is that right she definitely has you know

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sympathies that are against uh

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you know uh um weird one we were talking
about this before matt gates

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So we understand that case.

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That case is a congressman from Florida
who, let me say,

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has been credibly accused of paying for
encounters with ladies that were under the

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age.

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OK, I think it was charged, but like some
people have accused along with him have

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been charged and have gone to prison.

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And so this is something weird.

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Also, he immediately resigned from the
Congress as soon as he was nominated by

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Donald Trump.

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And this also comes from Congress.

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Immediately, there was an investigation
inside Congress about his conduct.

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And that investigation ends because he's
out of Congress.

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So make of that what you will.

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But the Gates one, I don't understand
because, you know, there's some things

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that I think are too far for anybody to
basically justify.

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The Gates one looks a bit weird to me.

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Yeah, this is where even the Republicans
are up in arms about whether they have the

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guts to vote against the nomination
because they can.

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It can be rejected.

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I'm a shallow person compared to you two.

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When I see Matt Goetz, I think first thing
I think is, goodness me, that's a creepy

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looking fella.

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His eyes are weird.

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He looks like some kind of vampire.

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But when you hear his story and you hear
his rhetoric about what he's tried to do

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in the past and what he has never done,

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which is hold any sort of position of
authority.

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He's got absolutely no experience
whatsoever.

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All he's got is the fact that he's a
lapdog for Donald Trump.

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And it was very interesting because John
Bolton, the ex-security advisor to Donald

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Trump,

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was being interviewed yesterday and his
opening gambit was,

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in ancient times when the barbarian leader
had to go to the Emperor of Japan,

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the Emperor of Japan would make him
prostrate himself on the floor in front of

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him and bang his forehead

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three times on the floor.

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And John Bolton said, these people are not
just yes-men.

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They are the barbarians at the foot of the
emperor.

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And Trump is the emperor, of course.

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And it's a little bit disturbing, I think.

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Sorry, I'll go on now because I'm on a bit
of a roll.

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Peter Hegseth, I sent a tweet out, or
rather an X, a message on X the other

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night.

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And I said, yeah, he's a brave chap.

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He's got two bronze stars.

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He's done two tours of duty, Iraq and
Afghanistan.

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He's clever.

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He's got a great education, etc.

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And the reason he's being put in is
because he's, in speech marks, an American

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hero, because that's what

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Trump called him, an American hero.

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And then at the end, I said, Forrest Gump
is also an American hero, because he did,

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I don't know if you're familiar with the
film, but he was a war hero as well.

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It doesn't make him the defence secretary.

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So it's all very odd, David.

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No, I...

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It's coming through now.

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I must admit I'm not as close to these
characters as maybe Rivers but some of

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them, I mean,

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when you look at Matt Gaetz, he's got that
eyebrow that kind of...

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What's his name?

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He's like the film star.

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One flew over the cuckoo's nest.

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Jack Nicholson, yeah.

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Jack Nicholson.

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And he's pretty young.

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I don't think he's over 40.

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You know, very, very strange appointment.

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This is for a very high position.

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Who else was the there was someone else
that also

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Not his.

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I'm trying to think of the other one.

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I've lost my train of thought at the
moment as you were talking there.

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But Listen, what we're also interested in,
who's going to be Secretary of the

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Treasury?

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I don't know if he's made any appointments
there yet.

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Not yet, no.

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No.

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But, of course, we haven't mentioned… He's
talking to people.

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We haven't mentioned Elon Musk yet, of
course, and his partner.

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Gosh, what is his name?

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Rawaswami.

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Rawaswami.

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Rawaswami.

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Yeah, anyway, the rent.

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The second fellow unleashed on the world,
I think it was in 2022 or something about,

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we're going to get rid of the

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Department of Education, we're going to
dismantle the FBI, etc.

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And it goes on and on.

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And of course, Elon Musk is loving this.

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And they've called it the Department of
Government Efficiency, which is Doge.

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Obviously, we know what Doge is apart
from...

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It's not a government department, by the
way.

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It's just a consultancy that goes to the
government.

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So it's strange.

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Viv, you must have an idea on this Elon
Musk story.

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You know, the point is that if you
appointed him into a government position,

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then

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Elon Musk would have to resign all his
directorships.

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Exactly.

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So he doesn't have to do that.

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You know, he can carry on as an advisor.

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or almost as a consultant.

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Exactly what David has said.

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So the people are saying that this is not
a department and therefore something newly

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created and therefore

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Trump is kind of letting these guys off
with a fake prize effectively,

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not realizing that they can't get a real
department because if either of these guys

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got a real department,

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Musk would have to get rid of his shares
in Tesla and SpaceX etc.

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And even to remember, he's not as rich as
Musk, but he's still a billionaire.

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and has a 7% stake in a company called
Roivut.

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And here is my thesis on this, right?

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I believe neither Ramaswamy or Musk care
that much about the debt.

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They don't care about spending.

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Okay, because how does, if the US
basically drops its deficit by 50%, how

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will it affect Musk's net worth?

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Not at all, right?

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But what really Musk is concerned about
and Ramaswamy are regulations.

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Musk has an issue with SpaceX because they
are stopping him from getting his rockets

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up as fast as possible, right?

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There's an issue with Tesla because they
are preventing him from getting, you know,

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that robot taxi on the road as quickly as
he might want to.

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Also with, it's called Neuralink because,
you know,

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obviously there's regulations about how
easy it is to put stuff in people's

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brains.

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Or with the Boring Company about how easy
it is to dig underground.

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You know what I mean?

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This is construction.

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Now, if you're looking at all those
companies here, you want to reduce

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regulation, SpaceX would be more
profitable.

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Tesla would be more profitable.

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Neuralink, who knows what the future might
hold for that company, but it will

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progress faster.

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and the same thing with the boring company
and on the other side robert its business

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model was entirely finding drugs

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that were basically developed by other
people and they're taking them and buying

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them off them and then taking them through
the the approval

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process at the fda so literally they were
totally involved in regulations around

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drug drugs

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and the reason i say that i don't think
that the two of them together there is a

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bad thing from their point of view is that
Musk doesn't concern himself with drugs.

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And I don't think Ramaswamy concerns
himself with construction or with, you

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know,

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space or with driving, et cetera.

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And so they each have the ability to
target parts of the regulatory environment

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that is going to benefit each of them
specifically and

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also is going to make them much more
wealthy.

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And here's another thing to be concerned
about.

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People are talking about the fact that
Donald Trump's a lame duck president.

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That's not the case in reality.

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Not to say that I think he's going to have
a third term.

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The people say it's a lame duck president
because he doesn't have the ability to

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affect you after his term.

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And so people normally with a lame duck
president, by halfway through his second

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term, they kind of stop looking at you.

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The difference this time around is that he
has Musk on his side.

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And Musk has said that if anybody votes
against Trump's, like, you know, approved

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candidates,

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he will basically finance rivals against
them in the next election.

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Now, this is Russia stuff.

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It really is.

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Russia stuff.

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Yeah.

239
00:12:31.899 --> 00:12:32.299
Russia stuff.

240
00:12:34.540 --> 00:12:40.782
for another term i mean no consecutive
terms because of that but also because it

241
00:12:40.782 --> 00:12:42.782
doesn't also it's going

242
00:12:42.782 --> 00:12:45.823
to be i've told you guys before it's not
going to it's all like

243
00:12:46.303 --> 00:12:52.705
30 percent chance it doesn't make it if
you have to go get an actuarial like an

244
00:12:52.705 --> 00:12:54.705
insurance textbook and look at the matter
of his age and his weight

245
00:12:54.705 --> 00:12:59.692
he's not going to be another four years
guaranteed you know it's like two-thirds

246
00:12:59.692 --> 00:13:01.692
chance but he'll be all but a little bit
But here's the thing, it doesn't need to

247
00:13:01.692 --> 00:13:03.692
be another thing.

248
00:13:03.692 --> 00:13:05.692
Once you change the laws, it takes a long
time to change the laws back.

249
00:13:05.692 --> 00:13:08.998
And SpaceX will have four years, maybe
five or six years of, you know, ability to

250
00:13:08.998 --> 00:13:10.998
get rockets into space much more easily.

251
00:13:10.998 --> 00:13:13.942
And Musk says he can get rockets fast into
space, they can do the paperwork.

252
00:13:14.282 --> 00:13:18.845
If you take out the paperwork, suddenly
he's going to have much more ability to

253
00:13:18.845 --> 00:13:20.845
get this, you know, Starlink and stuff in
space.

254
00:13:20.845 --> 00:13:21.367
Roy Wins would have a huge, like, you
know, uptake.

255
00:13:21.367 --> 00:13:24.769
There's probably tons of, like, you know,
drugs that they're pushing for the FDA

256
00:13:24.769 --> 00:13:26.769
right now.

257
00:13:26.769 --> 00:13:27.131
You take out some of the regulation of
that, they're going to be...

258
00:13:27.775 --> 00:13:30.736
Super profitable.

259
00:13:30.756 --> 00:13:32.436
So, yeah, these guys are going to make
billions.

260
00:13:32.796 --> 00:13:38.318
With Musk, it's going to be $70 billion
just on Tesla in the last week.

261
00:13:39.758 --> 00:13:40.579
Yes, it's unbelievable.

262
00:13:40.819 --> 00:13:46.760
Just before we leave the Musk story, do
you think Musk approached Trump or do you

263
00:13:46.760 --> 00:13:48.760
think Trump approached Musk?

264
00:13:48.760 --> 00:13:49.581
Because Musk must have said to himself, if
he gets in,

265
00:13:49.861 --> 00:13:56.443
then he's quite easily manipulated because
he loves people just saying how wonderful

266
00:13:56.443 --> 00:13:58.443
he is and I can get somewhere, I can get
in.

267
00:13:58.443 --> 00:14:03.509
and get the regulations that you've just
spoken of viv quashed and etc who came

268
00:14:03.509 --> 00:14:05.509
first the chicken or the

269
00:14:05.509 --> 00:14:10.635
egg david do you think i think i'm sure
that that musk has been making overtures

270
00:14:10.635 --> 00:14:12.635
in terms of

271
00:14:12.635 --> 00:14:17.681
uh you know social media which must have
attracted trump um he's you know he's that

272
00:14:17.681 --> 00:14:19.681
kind of character but he's been

273
00:14:19.681 --> 00:14:24.387
a supporter for some time it's not though
he's just come onto the scene overnight

274
00:14:24.387 --> 00:14:26.387
it's been

275
00:14:26.387 --> 00:14:29.875
It's been at a distance, but now that he's
taking the stage, that was a big surprise.

276
00:14:30.236 --> 00:14:36.942
You know, and to a point where he started
to give away a million dollars and so on,

277
00:14:36.942 --> 00:14:38.942
you know, there he really upped the ante.

278
00:14:38.942 --> 00:14:39.083
No one believed that he would take it that
far.

279
00:14:39.904 --> 00:14:46.210
And what his agenda was, I think Viv has
spelled out quite eloquently now.

280
00:14:47.190 --> 00:14:51.234
I think it's more an agenda than to serve
the American people.

281
00:14:51.234 --> 00:14:52.395
It's more his own agenda.

282
00:14:53.355 --> 00:14:55.036
I don't think he's the kind of people,

283
00:14:55.696 --> 00:15:01.859
he's the kind of person who wants to hold
babies or do any kind of civil work or

284
00:15:01.859 --> 00:15:03.859
something like

285
00:15:03.859 --> 00:15:05.859
that.

286
00:15:05.859 --> 00:15:05.861
I think he's completely self-interested.

287
00:15:06.341 --> 00:15:10.243
Vivian, you were about to say something
when David gave his answer.

288
00:15:10.283 --> 00:15:10.983
Please go ahead.

289
00:15:11.994 --> 00:15:13.935
Again, my consultancy theory around Peter
Thiel.

290
00:15:14.315 --> 00:15:18.197
Peter Thiel found PayPal with Elon Musk.

291
00:15:18.537 --> 00:15:22.698
Peter Thiel was the first guy to support
Donald Trump in 2016.

292
00:15:23.039 --> 00:15:25.299
Peter Thiel is the guy that financed J.D.

293
00:15:25.460 --> 00:15:30.241
Vance's business and basically financed
his entry to the Senate.

294
00:15:30.241 --> 00:15:33.483
I think Peter Thiel had a role to play in
this, almost certainly.

295
00:15:34.363 --> 00:15:35.063
Okay.

296
00:15:35.063 --> 00:15:37.024
You know what was very interesting
yesterday?

297
00:15:37.424 --> 00:15:40.926
I picked up Bill Ackman is a former
Democrat who

298
00:15:42.014 --> 00:15:48.817
you know who switched sides and he tweeted
something very interesting yesterday he

299
00:15:48.817 --> 00:15:50.817
said and he said that there's giddy

300
00:15:50.817 --> 00:15:55.780
excitement you know over trump's
administration uh by businessmen you know

301
00:15:55.780 --> 00:15:57.780
even businessmen who had

302
00:15:57.780 --> 00:15:58.361
formally voted or didn't vote

303
00:15:58.401 --> 00:16:05.224
for trump and this was more a business
tweet than than anything else and very

304
00:16:05.224 --> 00:16:07.224
excited about what's

305
00:16:07.224 --> 00:16:12.091
happening about obviously his economic
policies but he made another comment he

306
00:16:12.091 --> 00:16:14.091
said you know that Where confidence,

307
00:16:14.091 --> 00:16:15.573
where you're confident, where people are
confident, it becomes self-fulfilling.

308
00:16:16.194 --> 00:16:21.778
And he expected business now to spend a
lot more, invest a lot more,

309
00:16:22.478 --> 00:16:27.862
which is very productive, increases
productivity and also increases wealth and

310
00:16:27.862 --> 00:16:29.862
the stock market.

311
00:16:29.862 --> 00:16:34.086
But the other point he said that with
regulations being looked at,

312
00:16:35.247 --> 00:16:39.450
he said that's going to unleash a huge
amount of M&A.

313
00:16:41.079 --> 00:16:42.540
So, this was it.

314
00:16:43.060 --> 00:16:44.321
Today, I think you can tweet.

315
00:16:44.381 --> 00:16:46.643
You're not confined to a few letters.

316
00:16:48.205 --> 00:16:51.888
This was quite a long tweet, but very,
very positive business-wise.

317
00:16:53.029 --> 00:16:55.431
And I think that's what we've been seeing
in the markets.

318
00:16:55.451 --> 00:17:01.916
I know we're taking a bit of a breather
now, but there does seem to be this spirit

319
00:17:01.916 --> 00:17:03.916
of enthusiasm and spirit of, okay,

320
00:17:03.916 --> 00:17:05.359
we've got Trump, but… Let's focus on the
economy.

321
00:17:05.919 --> 00:17:07.219
That's where we are.

322
00:17:07.219 --> 00:17:09.680
It's an interesting one, especially with
the bond market doing what it's doing.

323
00:17:09.700 --> 00:17:10.881
OK, it's not getting hammered.

324
00:17:10.921 --> 00:17:15.943
But on the other hand, when Trump talks
about, I'll get inflation down, I'll get

325
00:17:15.943 --> 00:17:17.943
energy prices down.

326
00:17:17.943 --> 00:17:22.926
In fact, if what you've been talking about
goes ahead and if he cuts taxes and if he

327
00:17:22.926 --> 00:17:24.926
imposes tariffs, then inflation,

328
00:17:24.926 --> 00:17:26.007
of course, is going to go up, certainly in
the short to medium term.

329
00:17:26.368 --> 00:17:30.049
And therefore, his inflation call has been
the first of his lies.

330
00:17:30.509 --> 00:17:31.830
Because the.

331
00:17:32.010 --> 00:17:36.574
the cost to the average person going to
Walmart will undoubtedly go up.

332
00:17:36.674 --> 00:17:42.178
David, just quickly sticking with you,
Melania Trump, did you look up that Russia

333
00:17:42.178 --> 00:17:44.178
story that I I did.

334
00:17:44.178 --> 00:17:46.178
And did you see it?

335
00:17:46.178 --> 00:17:48.178
I saw it, yes.

336
00:17:48.178 --> 00:17:49.684
I'll just tell Viv what happened.

337
00:17:50.485 --> 00:17:52.667
For our eyes, they blanked out a lot of
stuff.

338
00:17:52.887 --> 00:17:53.587
Yes.

339
00:17:53.587 --> 00:17:55.909
But it's quite fascinating.

340
00:17:55.909 --> 00:18:02.763
And what's also fascinating is that, you
know, you alerted me to this as well, that

341
00:18:02.763 --> 00:18:04.763
She refused

342
00:18:04.763 --> 00:18:05.925
Jill Biden's invitation to the White
House.

343
00:18:06.266 --> 00:18:10.129
Donald Trump met with Biden yesterday, but
she refused.

344
00:18:10.129 --> 00:18:13.011
You know, she held back whether she was
embarrassed, whatever it is.

345
00:18:13.011 --> 00:18:16.734
She doesn't feel that she can hold a
conversation.

346
00:18:16.834 --> 00:18:17.534
I don't know.

347
00:18:17.875 --> 00:18:19.577
But there's something not right.

348
00:18:20.137 --> 00:18:23.199
You know, she makes very few appearances.

349
00:18:23.880 --> 00:18:28.564
And, you know, I don't think she supported
the second term.

350
00:18:28.584 --> 00:18:30.886
And I'm sure you're not going to see too
much of her.

351
00:18:32.066 --> 00:18:34.567
Only when she's absolutely forced to be
there.

352
00:18:34.808 --> 00:18:37.269
Well, she said she won't live at the White
House.

353
00:18:37.429 --> 00:18:43.651
She's going to spend time between Trump
Tower and Mar-a-Lago because her son,

354
00:18:43.651 --> 00:18:43.731
Barron,

355
00:18:43.991 --> 00:18:45.412
is at college in New York.

356
00:18:45.512 --> 00:18:48.773
So she's made it very clear she's not
going to go to the White House.

357
00:18:49.114 --> 00:18:53.195
And obviously the marriage is on the rocks
and she's paid to make certain

358
00:18:53.195 --> 00:18:55.195
appearances.

359
00:18:55.195 --> 00:18:59.478
But Viv, what happened, or you may have
seen it, is that when Trump was confirmed

360
00:18:59.478 --> 00:19:01.478
as president-elect,

361
00:19:01.478 --> 00:19:03.708
The Washington Post said that he'd phoned
up Putin and said, you must de-escalate

362
00:19:03.708 --> 00:19:05.708
the war.

363
00:19:05.708 --> 00:19:09.111
And the first thing that Putin said, you
can imagine, put the phone down and said,

364
00:19:09.111 --> 00:19:11.111
OK, let's escalate the war.

365
00:19:11.111 --> 00:19:15.975
And so he sent 145 drones into Ukraine the
next day, which was the biggest attack of

366
00:19:15.975 --> 00:19:17.975
the year so far.

367
00:19:17.975 --> 00:19:21.058
So that was the first finger to Trump. And
then the next day, state media,

368
00:19:21.358 --> 00:19:27.122
both television and newspapers, which is,
of course, controlled by the Putin regime.

369
00:19:28.158 --> 00:19:34.483
plastered themselves with pictures from a
long time ago of Melania Trump posing

370
00:19:35.404 --> 00:19:37.406
as a soft porn model, essentially.

371
00:19:37.866 --> 00:19:42.650
And they were all laughing about her,
saying, here's the first lady getting

372
00:19:42.650 --> 00:19:44.650
ready for her next term.

373
00:19:44.650 --> 00:19:47.594
So it's Putin saying to Trump, Viv, I'm in
charge.

374
00:19:47.654 --> 00:19:48.355
Don't mess with me.

375
00:19:48.715 --> 00:19:49.415
Don't you think?

376
00:19:50.396 --> 00:19:51.096
Yeah, I think he is.

377
00:19:51.096 --> 00:19:53.459
But I think that is silly on his part, if
he is doing that.

378
00:19:54.019 --> 00:19:56.982
Because quite frankly, the one thing you
know about Trump is, if you look back,

379
00:19:57.282 --> 00:20:04.187
the reason he's president is because
people made fun of him at a party with uh

380
00:20:04.187 --> 00:20:06.187
barack obama everybody says that yeah the
reason

381
00:20:06.187 --> 00:20:11.593
ronald trump is president is because there
was a one of those press uh things you

382
00:20:11.593 --> 00:20:13.593
know uh nights with barack

383
00:20:13.593 --> 00:20:15.336
obama and for something the correspondence
yeah

384
00:20:15.336 --> 00:20:21.180
and they made fun of trump and apparently
he fumed on it for all this time and he's

385
00:20:21.180 --> 00:20:23.180
basically gone after you know

386
00:20:23.180 --> 00:20:27.897
the presidency because of that the reason
that he's basically appointed the people

387
00:20:27.897 --> 00:20:29.897
supporting right now and says no to like
you know uh

388
00:20:29.897 --> 00:20:34.463
Pompeo and to uh Nikki Haley was because
he felt that they had like kind of

389
00:20:34.463 --> 00:20:36.463
slighted his honor and

390
00:20:36.463 --> 00:20:40.968
the people he's speaking right now in
terms of you know who's going to be in

391
00:20:40.968 --> 00:20:42.968
charge uh is not so much about their
expertise but for loyalty like you

392
00:20:42.968 --> 00:20:44.968
mentioned because

393
00:20:44.968 --> 00:20:47.934
he wants people that believe what he says
this I think is one of the things that

394
00:20:47.934 --> 00:20:49.934
Putin could actually do that will make
Trump actually support Ukraine

395
00:20:49.934 --> 00:20:55.499
because of the fact that uh he has a very
very certain skin and if you if you do do

396
00:20:55.499 --> 00:20:57.499
something like this here he

397
00:20:57.499 --> 00:21:00.263
will you know it's called uh retaliate so
it doesn't make sense from that point of

398
00:21:00.263 --> 00:21:02.263
view it's why you'd want to

399
00:21:02.263 --> 00:21:07.227
do that it's it's uh it's it's it's a this
is a this is a very silly part for putin

400
00:21:07.227 --> 00:21:09.227
putin is uh

401
00:21:09.227 --> 00:21:14.072
maybe not the world's baddest person but
he's he should be smart enough not to to

402
00:21:14.072 --> 00:21:16.072
see that this is an opportunity be
flattered donald trump that's the

403
00:21:16.072 --> 00:21:20.864
that's the thing like musk is doing and
then you know basically get what you

404
00:21:20.864 --> 00:21:22.864
wanted you know disassociate yourself
afterwards But yeah,

405
00:21:22.864 --> 00:21:23.045
it kind of makes no sense as to why they
would do this.

406
00:21:23.065 --> 00:21:29.848
It doesn't, because they are likely to get
Ukraine, or the part of Ukraine they

407
00:21:29.848 --> 00:21:31.848
already have, they are likely to get an
ending to sanctions.

408
00:21:31.848 --> 00:21:37.210
And they are likely to basically get
Ukraine not joining NATO if Trump

409
00:21:37.210 --> 00:21:39.210
basically, you know, is just left alone.

410
00:21:39.210 --> 00:21:39.411
What would they want?

411
00:21:40.071 --> 00:21:40.812
Yeah, true.

412
00:21:41.112 --> 00:21:41.812
Anyway.

413
00:21:41.952 --> 00:21:43.633
Yeah, it's fascinating, the whole thing.

414
00:21:43.633 --> 00:21:44.654
And it will go on and on.

415
00:21:44.714 --> 00:21:47.556
It's the one thing that still keeps me
awake at night.

416
00:21:47.556 --> 00:21:52.519
Anyway, the other thing is Bitcoin got to
in the low 90,000s yesterday.

417
00:21:52.759 --> 00:21:57.483
And I remember earlier in the year looking
at it, and it was something like 16,000,

418
00:21:57.483 --> 00:21:59.483
17,000.

419
00:21:59.483 --> 00:22:01.483
This year, that is.

420
00:22:01.483 --> 00:22:02.126
Not two years ago or three, but this year,
it's been as low as that and has rocketed.

421
00:22:02.566 --> 00:22:07.049
And I saw a graph which superimposed
Bitcoin over the Nasdaq.

422
00:22:07.870 --> 00:22:10.752
Bitcoin's a tech stock, Viv, and I'll stay
with you on this one.

423
00:22:10.752 --> 00:22:11.452
They are at...

424
00:22:11.472 --> 00:22:13.233
Absolutely identical.

425
00:22:13.293 --> 00:22:14.693
How do you explain that?

426
00:22:15.994 --> 00:22:16.994
I think it would have been a year ago.

427
00:22:18.815 --> 00:22:20.056
I think it was last year on that level.

428
00:22:20.496 --> 00:22:21.396
That's not of last year.

429
00:22:21.556 --> 00:22:24.938
I think this year the low has been about
40,000. Oh, okay.

430
00:22:25.018 --> 00:22:26.298
Time goes quickly at my age.

431
00:22:28.539 --> 00:22:34.161
I did a seminar on this just before the
election, and I had three picks if Trump

432
00:22:34.161 --> 00:22:34.301
wins.

433
00:22:34.301 --> 00:22:36.662
It was Palantir, Tesla, and Bitcoin.

434
00:22:36.703 --> 00:22:37.543
I bought two out of the three.

435
00:22:37.543 --> 00:22:39.504
I did not buy Bitcoin because I'm too old.

436
00:22:39.544 --> 00:22:40.244
I don't like...

437
00:22:40.432 --> 00:22:47.096
the idea of cryptocurrencies i've never
invested in them even though i did pick

438
00:22:47.096 --> 00:22:49.096
them but coin has been one of the things
that's going to go up uh if uh trump did

439
00:22:49.096 --> 00:22:51.096
win uh

440
00:22:51.096 --> 00:22:54.820
look trump is going to come in he's going
to be much more open to uh the uh the

441
00:22:54.820 --> 00:22:56.820
crypto space in

442
00:22:56.820 --> 00:22:58.962
fact uh if you look at the podcast he went
to some of the big podcasts he went to

443
00:22:58.962 --> 00:22:59.242
were very

444
00:22:59.242 --> 00:23:02.705
crypto focused yeah uh and young men in
the u.s

445
00:23:02.825 --> 00:23:08.548
with a substantial portion of young men in
the u.s that actually helped uh with the

446
00:23:08.548 --> 00:23:10.548
election uh in fact

447
00:23:10.548 --> 00:23:15.930
big thing is not uh bitcoin it's doge i
know we use doge for the uh the the

448
00:23:15.930 --> 00:23:15.990
institution

449
00:23:15.990 --> 00:23:22.192
that uh muslims are running but doge is up
300 percent this year okay and it's up

450
00:23:22.352 --> 00:23:27.733
150 percent uh from the election to that
that's like a week and a half uh so

451
00:23:27.833 --> 00:23:34.555
that is the one that's really going up uh
but crypto in general he's gonna promote

452
00:23:34.555 --> 00:23:36.555
it uh i personally don't

453
00:23:36.555 --> 00:23:38.656
trust crypto i don't know what it does and
if i stay away but uh yeah

454
00:23:38.896 --> 00:23:42.597
But it's definitely a troubling
phenomenon.

455
00:23:42.597 --> 00:23:48.199
You know, Viv, you raise a point which I
can't get my head around.

456
00:23:49.079 --> 00:23:55.761
He's still, regardless of whether he's a
supporter or not, and whether people who,

457
00:23:55.761 --> 00:23:57.761
which is exactly right,

458
00:23:57.761 --> 00:24:01.863
there was a whole lot of young rich people
in the Bitcoin area and those areas that

459
00:24:01.863 --> 00:24:03.863
supported him,

460
00:24:03.863 --> 00:24:03.863
and maybe this is his payback.

461
00:24:03.923 --> 00:24:06.744
But I'm trying to get my head around
how...

462
00:24:08.072 --> 00:24:09.273
You're going to regulate this.

463
00:24:09.433 --> 00:24:12.634
You know, I still can't irregulate a
dollar.

464
00:24:12.674 --> 00:24:13.955
You regulate a currency.

465
00:24:14.015 --> 00:24:14.715
You regulate.

466
00:24:14.935 --> 00:24:21.698
I know that the whole point was to bypass
and have a currency that is not dictated

467
00:24:21.698 --> 00:24:23.698
like gold by

468
00:24:23.698 --> 00:24:26.340
central bank policy or overspending or
whatever.

469
00:24:27.341 --> 00:24:32.403
But still, you know, somewhere along the
line, you've got to have control over this

470
00:24:32.403 --> 00:24:32.442
currency.

471
00:24:32.843 --> 00:24:34.844
Otherwise, exactly what it's used for will
be.

472
00:24:35.440 --> 00:24:38.162
money laundering and all dodgy type of
dealings.

473
00:24:38.562 --> 00:24:41.964
So I'm saying, okay, they're going to
help.

474
00:24:42.044 --> 00:24:44.705
They're going to be more forward-looking
towards it.

475
00:24:45.005 --> 00:24:45.705
But how?

476
00:24:45.866 --> 00:24:52.610
How are you going to regulate it in terms
of people using it for

477
00:24:53.350 --> 00:24:58.393
either investment or for settling
transactions?

478
00:24:58.893 --> 00:25:02.355
I still can't in my own mind work out
where the benefits are.

479
00:25:02.435 --> 00:25:03.676
We still price it in dollars.

480
00:25:04.536 --> 00:25:11.340
hey yeah you know we still so it's still
got a dollar value you know it's it's uh

481
00:25:11.340 --> 00:25:13.340
uh in the old days of barter you'd

482
00:25:13.340 --> 00:25:17.743
you'd you'd have a cow and you'd take it
to the market and you'd come home with

483
00:25:17.743 --> 00:25:19.743
carrots and tomatoes do you know what i
mean

484
00:25:19.743 --> 00:25:21.305
yeah so where did we how do we get from
bitcoin at 90

485
00:25:21.645 --> 00:25:28.369
000 to carrots and tomatoes and and cows
do you know what i mean and then so they

486
00:25:28.369 --> 00:25:30.369
said no well let's say a cow will be worth
a

487
00:25:30.369 --> 00:25:32.369
dollar and for a dollar you can work

488
00:25:32.369 --> 00:25:38.961
you can go and buy carrots and tomatoes
okay yeah but you're getting the wrong way

489
00:25:38.961 --> 00:25:40.961
around david i don't think donald trump's

490
00:25:40.961 --> 00:25:45.583
uh donald trump's entire second president
term is about reducing the power of the

491
00:25:45.583 --> 00:25:47.583
u.s state it's

492
00:25:47.583 --> 00:25:51.124
about reducing regulations he wants to
defy the irs he wants to put people in

493
00:25:51.124 --> 00:25:53.124
charge of

494
00:25:53.124 --> 00:25:55.806
uh the different departments who are going
to reduce their power

495
00:25:56.186 --> 00:26:03.008
reduce their overreach as he felt because
he thinks the cia he thinks the fbi thinks

496
00:26:03.008 --> 00:26:05.008
all those institutions have overdone their
power over the last

497
00:26:05.008 --> 00:26:10.030
couple years uh bitcoin is a crypto is
actually a way to reduce uh regulatory

498
00:26:10.030 --> 00:26:12.030
oversight not not to

499
00:26:12.030 --> 00:26:16.792
say that he wants to bring this into
regular oversight he wants to reduce it

500
00:26:16.792 --> 00:26:18.792
because the people that he kind of seems
to believe that that

501
00:26:18.792 --> 00:26:22.993
the state has turned against the deep
state as he calls it has turned against

502
00:26:22.993 --> 00:26:24.993
him so he wants to kind of reduce

503
00:26:24.993 --> 00:26:29.175
the power of the deep state and that means
basically having a currency that can't be

504
00:26:29.175 --> 00:26:31.175
regulated and can't be tracked.

505
00:26:31.175 --> 00:26:33.516
That means basically… I mean, the people
who have gone to that are far-reaching.

506
00:26:37.277 --> 00:26:43.219
So I reckon these people who are getting
carried away and buying just because

507
00:26:43.219 --> 00:26:45.219
they're buying, as you say, you avoid it.

508
00:26:45.219 --> 00:26:46.100
Somewhere along the line, I think, are in
for a bit of a shock.

509
00:26:46.360 --> 00:26:53.082
But I heard this Mike Novogratz, Scott, or
whatever his name is, saying, you know,

510
00:26:53.082 --> 00:26:55.082
this is $500,000,

511
00:26:55.082 --> 00:26:57.082
you know.

512
00:26:57.082 --> 00:26:57.103
And everybody's, oh, $500,000 is only 90
we better buy.

513
00:26:57.763 --> 00:27:04.505
So it is being propped up by a lot of the
cheerleaders for this, for crypto.

514
00:27:04.505 --> 00:27:06.085
Because you can't challenge it.

515
00:27:06.125 --> 00:27:09.266
You can't say, oh, there's earnings or
anything around it.

516
00:27:09.466 --> 00:27:11.467
You can just put this up to wherever you
want to.

517
00:27:11.467 --> 00:27:12.447
It's just a vehicle.

518
00:27:12.487 --> 00:27:14.768
It's just a speculative vehicle, isn't it?

519
00:27:14.768 --> 00:27:19.409
I mean, unless you're a criminal and
you're laundering money, it's something

520
00:27:19.409 --> 00:27:21.409
that you buy because everyone else is
buying it.

521
00:27:21.409 --> 00:27:23.409
And then you sell it.

522
00:27:23.409 --> 00:27:25.409
And you've never owned it.

523
00:27:25.409 --> 00:27:27.409
You've done it via.

524
00:27:27.409 --> 00:27:27.755
And of course, the ETF market has boosted
it a lot because now suddenly you can buy

525
00:27:27.755 --> 00:27:27.954
a small

526
00:27:27.954 --> 00:27:30.117
chunk in whatever increment you want.

527
00:27:30.697 --> 00:27:32.819
It's very, it disturbs me.

528
00:27:32.819 --> 00:27:35.941
And the reason it disturbs me is because I
don't understand it like you, David.

529
00:27:35.962 --> 00:27:40.405
I really don't understand it and I don't
want to.

530
00:27:40.706 --> 00:27:46.210
Next key point is going to be Trump has
discussed having Bitcoin as part of the

531
00:27:46.210 --> 00:27:48.210
US's national reserves.

532
00:27:48.210 --> 00:27:50.474
So if that does happen.

533
00:27:51.010 --> 00:27:57.475
okay then you could see i don't know you
could see 500 000 you could see it go up

534
00:27:57.475 --> 00:27:59.475
from here and i was i still wouldn't buy
it because i just

535
00:27:59.475 --> 00:28:01.377
like i've selected the school with david i
think it can fall immediately uh you know

536
00:28:01.658 --> 00:28:07.622
because of whatever happens but i think
that the next point is and the thing is

537
00:28:07.622 --> 00:28:09.622
that other countries have done this
already

538
00:28:09.622 --> 00:28:15.868
uh because uh we've already seen other
countries uh already go and have bitcoin

539
00:28:15.868 --> 00:28:17.868
as basically el salvador is the

540
00:28:17.868 --> 00:28:22.192
big one that has done it uh and uh I think
also, I think Nepal or somewhere else in

541
00:28:22.192 --> 00:28:24.192
Asia has done it.

542
00:28:24.192 --> 00:28:26.192
Bhutan, sorry, has done that.

543
00:28:26.192 --> 00:28:28.437
So we are seeing, you know, other
countries already starting to look at

544
00:28:28.437 --> 00:28:30.437
Bitcoin as a reserve like gold.

545
00:28:30.437 --> 00:28:32.437
And I think if the U.S.

546
00:28:32.437 --> 00:28:34.437
gets into that as well, we could see
500,000.

547
00:28:34.437 --> 00:28:36.144
But like I said, this is not about getting
a better functioning U.S.

548
00:28:36.204 --> 00:28:36.904
state.

549
00:28:36.904 --> 00:28:37.665
It's about getting the U.S.

550
00:28:37.725 --> 00:28:39.266
state significantly less powerful.

551
00:28:39.847 --> 00:28:41.588
And I think that's what Musk is about.

552
00:28:41.728 --> 00:28:43.009
That's what Trump is about.

553
00:28:43.590 --> 00:28:45.091
That's what a lot of the things that he's
doing is about.

554
00:28:45.111 --> 00:28:46.532
It's not regulating debt.

555
00:28:46.952 --> 00:28:48.073
It's regulating less.

556
00:28:48.554 --> 00:28:49.254
All right.

557
00:28:49.254 --> 00:28:52.252
David, let's get back briefly to the
markets.

558
00:28:52.432 --> 00:28:56.574
And I noticed when I was looking at the
JSC page today that Rechambeau was doing

559
00:28:56.574 --> 00:28:56.874
well.

560
00:28:56.874 --> 00:28:57.735
And I thought, why is that happening?

561
00:28:57.735 --> 00:28:59.055
And then I saw the Burberry numbers.

562
00:28:59.075 --> 00:29:03.478
I think the share price rose about 20% on
the news of restructuring, I think it was.

563
00:29:03.618 --> 00:29:04.318
Is that what it is?

564
00:29:04.358 --> 00:29:07.040
Was Burberry the catalyst for all luxury
stocks?

565
00:29:07.040 --> 00:29:07.740
I made a statement.

566
00:29:08.261 --> 00:29:14.724
I made a very statement that they can see
Chinese demand recovery.

567
00:29:16.225 --> 00:29:18.026
OK, I mean, this is Burberry.

568
00:29:18.530 --> 00:29:21.912
Now, no other company has reported
anything close to that.

569
00:29:23.233 --> 00:29:29.316
You saw Richemont's results, which were
earlier on the week, particularly on watch

570
00:29:29.316 --> 00:29:31.316
sales, really under a lot of pressure.

571
00:29:31.316 --> 00:29:34.620
So I'm still trying to work out why
Burberry's results, you know, that

572
00:29:34.620 --> 00:29:34.679
statement,

573
00:29:34.679 --> 00:29:36.981
because this is a very low level.

574
00:29:37.021 --> 00:29:39.102
In fact, it's up 20% as I look now.

575
00:29:39.883 --> 00:29:43.765
You know, for me, it was a very low level
luxury brand.

576
00:29:43.925 --> 00:29:45.206
And why Burberry would...

577
00:29:45.622 --> 00:29:48.603
Leader recovery, it's just beyond me.

578
00:29:49.124 --> 00:29:55.827
So I don't know whether it just sparked
some kind of view that maybe that side of

579
00:29:55.827 --> 00:29:55.847
the market is

580
00:29:55.907 --> 00:29:56.607
oversold.

581
00:29:57.028 --> 00:30:02.150
But I think it's a bit premature to call a
turnaround in Chinese demand.

582
00:30:03.210 --> 00:30:08.033
I don't think Burberry is going to be the
leader of that kind of turnaround.

583
00:30:08.053 --> 00:30:12.896
Maybe it was just looking for an excuse,
the whole sector, and also the Trump

584
00:30:12.896 --> 00:30:14.896
factor, and maybe

585
00:30:14.896 --> 00:30:16.758
China will start to stabilize at least.

586
00:30:17.178 --> 00:30:20.700
But Richemont was up, all of them came,
4.5%.

587
00:30:21.841 --> 00:30:25.483
So a lot of the luxury companies went up
as well.

588
00:30:25.683 --> 00:30:29.845
I just, you know, in Europe as well, ASML
came out with a report as well.

589
00:30:29.885 --> 00:30:31.226
You know, ASML has been under...

590
00:30:31.286 --> 00:30:32.026
of pressure.

591
00:30:32.066 --> 00:30:33.407
That's from your part of the woods.

592
00:30:33.747 --> 00:30:39.831
And they came out with quite a positive
view over the next five years about

593
00:30:39.831 --> 00:30:41.831
increasing demand for

594
00:30:41.831 --> 00:30:42.712
artificial intelligence.

595
00:30:42.732 --> 00:30:48.536
And of course, that's going to mean that
they sell more machines and that shares up

596
00:30:48.536 --> 00:30:50.536
about over 6% today as well.

597
00:30:50.536 --> 00:30:52.878
So why bring that up as together with
Burberry?

598
00:30:53.519 --> 00:30:56.600
I just think Europe has oversold Lindsay.

599
00:30:56.620 --> 00:30:59.202
I mean, I think it had been taken too much
and...

600
00:30:59.886 --> 00:31:04.688
People looking or investors just looking
for some kind of trigger to say, OK, let's

601
00:31:04.688 --> 00:31:04.828
go in.

602
00:31:05.448 --> 00:31:10.891
But I don't think either in ASML they said
anything particularly different from what

603
00:31:10.891 --> 00:31:12.891
they had been saying.

604
00:31:12.891 --> 00:31:14.891
I love the company.

605
00:31:14.891 --> 00:31:16.891
I enjoy it.

606
00:31:16.891 --> 00:31:17.073
And, you know, but certainly Burberry is a
bit of a mystery.

607
00:31:18.013 --> 00:31:18.713
All right.

608
00:31:18.713 --> 00:31:19.874
Let's have a look at some markets, shall
we, gentlemen?

609
00:31:19.954 --> 00:31:24.456
The dollar round 1823, British pound
against the round 2316.

610
00:31:24.456 --> 00:31:26.957
Euro round is 1927.

611
00:31:26.957 --> 00:31:28.798
Euro dollar 105.70.

612
00:31:29.378 --> 00:31:31.039
on its way to parity, methinks.

613
00:31:31.519 --> 00:31:33.801
British pound 127.05.

614
00:31:33.801 --> 00:31:37.663
Gold price has had a bit of a time
recently, 25.71 today, down $10.

615
00:31:38.223 --> 00:31:43.967
Platinum and palladium both in three
figures again, 9.46 for platinum,

616
00:31:44.007 --> 00:31:49.690
although it is up eight on the day, and
palladium is unchanged at $930 an ounce.

617
00:31:49.770 --> 00:31:53.012
The oil price looked a bit dodgy earlier
in the week, but it's recovered a bit.

618
00:31:53.012 --> 00:31:54.333
It was below 71.

619
00:31:54.333 --> 00:31:55.634
It's now 73.

620
00:31:56.150 --> 00:31:57.391
And three cents per barrel.

621
00:31:57.531 --> 00:32:01.474
Oh, no, it's suddenly gone 72.83, which is
only up three quarters of a percent.

622
00:32:01.514 --> 00:32:02.775
That's the Brent crude variety.

623
00:32:03.075 --> 00:32:07.898
And West Texas is $68.93, which is also up
three quarters.

624
00:32:08.439 --> 00:32:10.480
S&P is still holding on.

625
00:32:10.600 --> 00:32:12.582
It's 6,009.

626
00:32:12.582 --> 00:32:13.362
Who would have thought that?

627
00:32:13.422 --> 00:32:18.746
6,009 and has just dipped below 6,000, as
my screen updates, 5,000,000.

628
00:32:18.826 --> 00:32:19.526
U.S.

629
00:32:19.526 --> 00:32:21.708
10-year Treasury bond yield, 4.42%.

630
00:32:21.708 --> 00:32:24.570
The South African 10-year, 9.34%.

631
00:32:25.146 --> 00:32:26.566
And let's have a look at Bitcoin.

632
00:32:27.287 --> 00:32:31.568
It was looking for all the world as though
it would make an assault on 100,000 before

633
00:32:31.568 --> 00:32:33.568
the end of the year.

634
00:32:33.568 --> 00:32:35.568
And of course, it still can.

635
00:32:35.568 --> 00:32:37.970
But currently down 3.4% to 88,826.

636
00:32:38.130 --> 00:32:39.790
Actually down just over 4% now.

637
00:32:40.190 --> 00:32:40.950
What else have we got?

638
00:32:41.171 --> 00:32:47.312
Viv, any of your South African stocks in
your portfolios catching your eye, doing

639
00:32:47.312 --> 00:32:49.312
well, doing badly?

640
00:32:49.312 --> 00:32:50.873
Look at the gold price and look at the
gold stocks today.

641
00:32:51.013 --> 00:32:52.814
They're all publicly that great.

642
00:32:53.686 --> 00:33:00.549
look i'm i'm a bit concerned also about
the rod i mean the rod that you said it's

643
00:33:00.549 --> 00:33:02.549
a 1820 it was 1830 something earlier in
the day

644
00:33:02.549 --> 00:33:08.613
uh it's been incredibly vulnerable and the
reason i'm looking at some currency in

645
00:33:08.613 --> 00:33:10.613
that yes part of it is the dollar but if
you look at the movement against the

646
00:33:10.613 --> 00:33:14.875
powder you know it's about half the
movement is just the rod it's not the

647
00:33:14.875 --> 00:33:16.875
dollar yeah or just the dollar and so what

648
00:33:16.875 --> 00:33:20.498
did i don't know if david said anything
that's why is the rod being so weak

649
00:33:20.498 --> 00:33:22.498
recently what's what's the kind of beauty
about that

650
00:33:22.498 --> 00:33:22.847
It could be commodities.

651
00:33:22.907 --> 00:33:27.229
It could be commodity prices, which are
under pressure, just the general state of

652
00:33:27.229 --> 00:33:27.308
the economy.

653
00:33:27.549 --> 00:33:33.091
I also think, you know, this whole
emerging market story has been overdone.

654
00:33:33.631 --> 00:33:40.294
And the more I look at Europe, the more I
look at emerging markets, the more I'm

655
00:33:40.294 --> 00:33:42.294
concerned about where things go,

656
00:33:42.294 --> 00:33:42.895
particularly with China still pretty weak.

657
00:33:43.376 --> 00:33:47.177
And I think that I know that there's views
that.

658
00:33:49.098 --> 00:33:49.899
rates in the U.S.

659
00:33:49.959 --> 00:33:52.840
might not come down as far as everybody
had anticipated.

660
00:33:53.160 --> 00:33:54.941
I still think they're on a weakening bias.

661
00:33:55.021 --> 00:34:00.825
There's still calls that inflation is now
getting very sticky and it's going to go

662
00:34:00.825 --> 00:34:02.825
sideways, whatever that is.

663
00:34:02.825 --> 00:34:03.927
I think it's more to do with money going
into the U.S.

664
00:34:04.407 --> 00:34:09.830
I think investors taking a view on the
U.S., whether they're buying

665
00:34:10.550 --> 00:34:12.031
Bitcoin or whatever they buy.

666
00:34:13.772 --> 00:34:19.315
But I think there's this view, as Bill
actually said, said that America is going

667
00:34:19.315 --> 00:34:21.315
to dominate,

668
00:34:21.315 --> 00:34:21.856
that it's going to be the place to invest.

669
00:34:21.856 --> 00:34:27.158
So I think you've got to build that in as
well, as well as other factors that

670
00:34:27.158 --> 00:34:29.158
normally affect currencies.

671
00:34:29.158 --> 00:34:29.819
But the Rand has been incredibly weak.

672
00:34:30.440 --> 00:34:35.822
For us, we were at 1830, I think two weeks
ago, we were kind of 17.

673
00:34:36.902 --> 00:34:39.864
And the people calling 1650.

674
00:34:39.964 --> 00:34:43.305
Big houses here calling 1650.

675
00:34:43.305 --> 00:34:44.005
Yeah.

676
00:34:44.005 --> 00:34:45.446
I was actually looking at the research I
got from the different banks.

677
00:34:46.279 --> 00:34:49.942
When the round was 18-30 and most of the
stuff was talking about how much stronger

678
00:34:49.942 --> 00:34:51.942
the round was going to be.

679
00:34:51.942 --> 00:34:56.168
Last week they were talking about, you
know, you're talking about below 17,

680
00:34:56.168 --> 00:34:58.168
breaking through 17, and it was 18-30.

681
00:34:58.168 --> 00:35:00.168
I'm thinking none of these guys predicted
this stuff.

682
00:35:00.168 --> 00:35:06.132
You know what will happen, of course, if
the Trump inflation play comes into

683
00:35:06.132 --> 00:35:08.132
fruition, then what will happen is,

684
00:35:08.132 --> 00:35:10.132
of course, that inflation goes up.

685
00:35:10.132 --> 00:35:12.454
The US Federal Reserve stops cutting rates
no matter who is in charge of the Fed.

686
00:35:12.774 --> 00:35:15.415
Maybe Powell will get kicked out by Trump.

687
00:35:15.455 --> 00:35:16.155
I don't know.

688
00:35:16.155 --> 00:35:21.616
But undoubtedly, rates will stop falling
and may even start to tick up again if

689
00:35:21.616 --> 00:35:23.616
inflation rises.

690
00:35:23.616 --> 00:35:25.616
So the dollar rises as well.

691
00:35:25.616 --> 00:35:27.698
And therefore, emerging market currencies
are in hiding to nothing, because not only

692
00:35:27.698 --> 00:35:29.698
does it mean...

693
00:35:29.698 --> 00:35:31.115
The dollar is strong and therefore the
emerging market currency is weak.

694
00:35:31.175 --> 00:35:37.157
But African governments, for example, it
makes it much more difficult to service

695
00:35:37.157 --> 00:35:39.157
their debt with interest rates rising.

696
00:35:39.157 --> 00:35:40.517
So we could be in for a torrid time should
inflation start to rise.

697
00:35:40.537 --> 00:35:41.237
What do you think?

698
00:35:42.538 --> 00:35:43.398
I would disagree with that.

699
00:35:43.818 --> 00:35:44.518
OK, good.

700
00:35:45.519 --> 00:35:49.940
Because I do believe if all the
deregulation that Musk is going to put

701
00:35:49.940 --> 00:35:50.160
into play,

702
00:35:50.560 --> 00:35:56.382
that deregulation in the US is massively
overregulated when it comes to

703
00:35:56.382 --> 00:35:58.382
construction, massively overregulated when
it comes to manufacturing.

704
00:35:58.382 --> 00:36:02.191
If Trump, if Musk goes in there and he
significantly reduces the ability of the

705
00:36:02.191 --> 00:36:04.191
EPA and the

706
00:36:04.191 --> 00:36:07.433
ability of these federal agencies to stop
construction in the U.S., it's still the

707
00:36:07.433 --> 00:36:09.433
world's largest economy.

708
00:36:09.433 --> 00:36:11.054
And they have a huge backlog of things
that they need to do and need to build.

709
00:36:11.554 --> 00:36:14.655
And if you have, you know, he's not going
to do it for the good of the country.

710
00:36:15.135 --> 00:36:16.615
You know, that's our thesis anyway.

711
00:36:16.936 --> 00:36:19.556
He's doing it more for SpaceX and Boeing
and Tesla and so on.

712
00:36:19.936 --> 00:36:22.437
The knockout effects for the whole economy
in the U.S.

713
00:36:22.497 --> 00:36:24.978
could mean a construction manufacturing
boom in the U.S.

714
00:36:25.538 --> 00:36:26.238
And that would.

715
00:36:26.238 --> 00:36:29.219
cause a huge uptick in demand for
commodities, which would help Africa.

716
00:36:29.780 --> 00:36:31.220
It could easily replace China.

717
00:36:31.841 --> 00:36:32.801
And the second thing is this.

718
00:36:33.161 --> 00:36:37.363
The Chinese economy, they did that
stimulus last week, which was $1.6

719
00:36:37.363 --> 00:36:39.363
trillion, right?

720
00:36:39.363 --> 00:36:39.584
It was focused on the municipalities.

721
00:36:40.044 --> 00:36:45.667
Now that they see Trump coming into play,
they know they need to have higher

722
00:36:45.667 --> 00:36:47.667
stimulus to keep that economy afloat

723
00:36:47.667 --> 00:36:48.588
because of the fact that what's happening
there.

724
00:36:48.948 --> 00:36:53.190
And what they're going to have to do is
they're going to have to basically put

725
00:36:53.190 --> 00:36:55.190
that stimulus into parts of the economy
that are going to be growing.

726
00:36:55.190 --> 00:36:56.513
That means more manufacturing, more cars
or whatever they're going to be doing.

727
00:36:56.873 --> 00:36:59.435
And that also could be a huge source of
commodity demand.

728
00:36:59.815 --> 00:37:03.158
So I'm not so negative with the commodity
space as some people are.

729
00:37:03.158 --> 00:37:08.803
I just think that what Musk is doing, what
Trump is doing, could actually make

730
00:37:08.803 --> 00:37:10.803
commodities really attractive for the next
few years as

731
00:37:10.803 --> 00:37:12.803
people start building because they have
to.

732
00:37:12.803 --> 00:37:14.803
OK, well, it's good for the South African
economy.

733
00:37:14.803 --> 00:37:19.392
But what I'm saying is generally emerging
markets would suffer with a rising dollar

734
00:37:19.392 --> 00:37:21.392
and potentially stabilising or rising

735
00:37:21.392 --> 00:37:23.392
interest rates.

736
00:37:23.392 --> 00:37:25.392
Anyway, on the upside today...

737
00:37:25.392 --> 00:37:26.177
The thing is, in America, they build with
cardboard and sticky tape.

738
00:37:26.177 --> 00:37:31.721
You know, I know they build bridges and
everything, but most of the houses are

739
00:37:31.721 --> 00:37:33.721
cardboard.

740
00:37:34.843 --> 00:37:36.204
Shapiro Construction Inc.

741
00:37:36.264 --> 00:37:39.026
with his analysis of the US infrastructure
build.

742
00:37:39.807 --> 00:37:45.191
Okay, on the upside on the JSC today,
Telcom up nearly 6%, Richemont up 3.4%,

743
00:37:45.511 --> 00:37:47.432
AB InBev up 3.3%.

744
00:37:47.472 --> 00:37:49.634
Downside, four of the five are diggers.

745
00:37:49.954 --> 00:37:51.434
Harmony down 5.4%.

746
00:37:51.434 --> 00:37:53.295
Anglo-Goldish Ante down nearly 4%.

747
00:37:53.355 --> 00:37:55.135
Northam's down 3.6%.

748
00:37:55.456 --> 00:37:58.076
And Sibania's still water 3.25% weaker.

749
00:37:58.116 --> 00:38:01.217
Closing JSC indices, please, David, and
value traded.

750
00:38:01.937 --> 00:38:07.139
Yeah, the value traded a little over $20
billion, which was up on the last couple

751
00:38:07.139 --> 00:38:09.139
of days.

752
00:38:09.139 --> 00:38:09.759
We ended flat, up

753
00:38:10.200 --> 00:38:16.221
0.04% at 8.3%,

754
00:38:16.261 --> 00:38:17.241
8.34%.

755
00:38:17.241 --> 00:38:17.941
So very little.

756
00:38:17.941 --> 00:38:19.242
It was a toss-up between the minerals
and...

757
00:38:19.794 --> 00:38:26.419
financials and industrials you know
resources down again we've mentioned that

758
00:38:26.419 --> 00:38:28.419
you know gold shares were down you said

759
00:38:28.419 --> 00:38:33.105
harmony anglo gold sabania all of those
sassle and that took the uh you know the

760
00:38:33.105 --> 00:38:35.105
the resource indices

761
00:38:35.105 --> 00:38:40.030
down but uh financials and um consumer
stocks and sorry industrial is pretty

762
00:38:40.030 --> 00:38:42.030
steady and a lot had to do

763
00:38:42.030 --> 00:38:47.416
with those that you mentioned richmond up
quite significantly on the back of

764
00:38:47.416 --> 00:38:49.416
burberry uh abn bev also up

765
00:38:49.416 --> 00:38:54.240
you know the rand also plays its part, the
much weaker and also played its part in

766
00:38:54.240 --> 00:38:56.240
supporting some of those big offshore

767
00:38:56.240 --> 00:38:58.240
companies on translation.

768
00:38:58.240 --> 00:38:59.923
But a fair day, nothing dramatic there.

769
00:38:59.983 --> 00:39:03.184
I think we're in a bad period now.

770
00:39:03.224 --> 00:39:04.185
I like nothing dramatic.

771
00:39:04.225 --> 00:39:06.606
Just final story and it's to do with
China.

772
00:39:06.646 --> 00:39:08.526
It's the most interesting China story of
the week.

773
00:39:08.547 --> 00:39:10.347
Have you seen the dumpling story, both of
you?

774
00:39:11.208 --> 00:39:12.448
Anyone seen the dumpling story?

775
00:39:12.548 --> 00:39:13.248
Okay.

776
00:39:13.369 --> 00:39:16.210
Four students in a city in China.

777
00:39:16.450 --> 00:39:22.712
decided to cycle to an historic city
because they had a craving for these soup

778
00:39:22.712 --> 00:39:24.712
dumplings that this

779
00:39:24.712 --> 00:39:24.992
historic town was famous for.

780
00:39:25.352 --> 00:39:32.214
So the four of them rode off and decided
to post it on social media

781
00:39:32.274 --> 00:39:32.974
platforms.

782
00:39:33.235 --> 00:39:33.975
This went viral.

783
00:39:34.335 --> 00:39:40.857
Within a week, there was 100,000 young
cyclists cycling at night with their lamps

784
00:39:40.857 --> 00:39:42.857
on and everything,

785
00:39:42.857 --> 00:39:44.857
and mostly with hired bikes.

786
00:39:44.857 --> 00:39:45.438
And they went to this town, blocking
traffic, etc.

787
00:39:45.658 --> 00:39:48.684
And And what does the Chinese government
do?

788
00:39:48.724 --> 00:39:50.166
It says, no, this is bad.

789
00:39:50.226 --> 00:39:51.947
This is a gathering of young people.

790
00:39:51.947 --> 00:39:57.132
And we know what has happened before with
gatherings of young people in China, and

791
00:39:57.132 --> 00:39:59.132
they shut it all down immediately.

792
00:39:59.132 --> 00:39:59.434
They didn't say, oh, good, this is
healthy.

793
00:40:00.034 --> 00:40:02.276
There's 19% youth unemployment in China.

794
00:40:02.296 --> 00:40:04.998
So it's giving them something to do and
express themselves.

795
00:40:05.319 --> 00:40:09.082
And it's doing this town the power of good
with all the extra money coming in.

796
00:40:09.082 --> 00:40:11.444
But no, they just said, sorry, no good.

797
00:40:11.804 --> 00:40:13.626
Viv, passing shot on that one from you.

798
00:40:15.232 --> 00:40:17.693
Yeah, look, I mean, China is in a bit of a
disarray at the moment.

799
00:40:17.713 --> 00:40:18.494
I don't know.

800
00:40:18.494 --> 00:40:20.735
This is much more dark and sorry to go
dark as this.

801
00:40:21.055 --> 00:40:24.777
There was also a massive mass killing in
China as well.

802
00:40:24.797 --> 00:40:28.359
35 people dead in a car attack by the
individual.

803
00:40:28.719 --> 00:40:30.380
Apparently, these things are rising
dramatically.

804
00:40:30.380 --> 00:40:34.563
I don't know if you saw the report of the
BBC about it, where they tried to stop the

805
00:40:34.563 --> 00:40:36.563
reporter from reporting.

806
00:40:36.563 --> 00:40:38.563
Yes, I saw that chap.

807
00:40:38.563 --> 00:40:40.563
Yes, he got hassled by that chap
relentlessly.

808
00:40:40.563 --> 00:40:42.563
Yeah.

809
00:40:42.563 --> 00:40:44.168
So the tensions in China, this is a
situation where there is a society under

810
00:40:44.168 --> 00:40:46.168
huge pressure.

811
00:40:46.168 --> 00:40:50.993
and i think the chinese government sees
that and yes you might be like oh it's

812
00:40:50.993 --> 00:40:52.993
whatever but they know these kind of
things can take off you know wherever

813
00:40:52.993 --> 00:40:58.938
like you know out of nowhere uh and so
yeah i think this is actually a society at

814
00:40:58.938 --> 00:41:00.938
a huge pressure at the moment you know
what what what

815
00:41:00.938 --> 00:41:06.023
really interested me about that story
because when i saw the visuals i mean they

816
00:41:06.023 --> 00:41:08.023
were literally you know blocking

817
00:41:08.023 --> 00:41:12.268
the highway but the fact that this can go
viral you know and when it goes viral that

818
00:41:12.268 --> 00:41:14.268
it can attract

819
00:41:14.268 --> 00:41:15.245
That number of people, that was quite
astonishing.

820
00:41:15.265 --> 00:41:20.708
And as you said, there was only four
girls, I think, that decided to make this

821
00:41:20.708 --> 00:41:22.708
trip at night.

822
00:41:22.708 --> 00:41:24.708
It's quite a phenomenal story.

823
00:41:24.708 --> 00:41:26.708
It is a great story.

824
00:41:26.708 --> 00:41:28.613
Immediately they came down and clamped
down and said, oh, you know, you can ride

825
00:41:28.613 --> 00:41:30.613
in threes and fours,

826
00:41:30.613 --> 00:41:30.814
but not like in multi-thousands.

827
00:41:31.635 --> 00:41:32.755
But I'm with you in this.

828
00:41:32.895 --> 00:41:37.038
I think there are a lot of outbreaks that
are not reported.

829
00:41:37.218 --> 00:41:37.918
Definitely.

830
00:41:37.918 --> 00:41:41.160
A lot of protests and that that no one
ever hears of.

831
00:41:42.144 --> 00:41:46.325
happening around China because the press
are not there and it's never reported.

832
00:41:46.745 --> 00:41:50.827
I think things are a lot worse than we're
led to believe.

833
00:41:50.967 --> 00:41:56.588
And that's a problem where you have a
dictatorship, but it would probably happen

834
00:41:56.588 --> 00:41:58.588
in Russia as well,

835
00:41:58.588 --> 00:41:59.949
where you never hear the true stories.

836
00:42:01.029 --> 00:42:03.530
Okay, gentlemen, thank you very much for
your extended time today.

837
00:42:03.590 --> 00:42:06.271
Fascinating stuff, as always, on a variety
of subjects.

838
00:42:07.011 --> 00:42:08.852
David Shapiro is from Sasson Securities.

839
00:42:09.152 --> 00:42:10.512
Viv Govender from Ransuisse.

840
00:42:10.732 --> 00:42:13.173
both in Johannesburg, and that was the 5
o'clock shadow.

841
00:42:13.614 --> 00:42:20.557
The views and opinions expressed in these
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842
00:42:20.557 --> 00:42:22.557
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843
00:42:22.557 --> 00:42:25.080
position, or opinion of any other agency,
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844
00:42:25.420 --> 00:42:29.262
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

845
00:42:29.742 --> 00:42:36.706
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

846
00:42:36.706 --> 00:42:38.706
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

847
00:42:38.706 --> 00:42:42.179
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, These views are always subject to

848
00:42:42.179 --> 00:42:42.277
change,

849
00:42:42.460 --> 00:42:45.028
revision and rethinking at any time.

850
00:42:45.328 --> 00:42:47.756
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