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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow, and as always, on a Wednesday.

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I speak to Skullclo, Portfolio Manager at
PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape

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Town. Strange time of year, this one,
Skull, because here we are in

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mid-November,

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so we're at the midpoint of the fourth
quarter of 2024.

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People looking forward to the end of the
year.

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On the other hand, there's still a lot of
work to do.

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And goodness me, a lot of market movements
I would predict in the next six to eight

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weeks.

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But you've sort of got one eye on one
thing and one eye on another.

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Are you finding that?

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Yeah, yeah.

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No, definitely.

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And I feel or agree with what you're
saying.

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I think there's going to be quite a bit of
action this, let's call it, latter part of

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November,

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even December.

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Because so many things need to happen
until Trump now actually takes office.

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We've seen he made announcements today on
X as head of defense

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and all these.

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But I mean, the one thing that sort of
dominated markets over the past, let's

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call it week,

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has been this thing called the Trump
trade.

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It is just unbelievable how this.

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Trump trade has really moved the needle on
the American

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market and some of these other Western
markets.

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And countries, emerging markets like South
Africa, China, those countries,

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has been under unbelievable pressure.

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How we've changed from September going
into a risk-on scenario.

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We just started the cutting or interest
rate cutting cycle.

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And it just suddenly turned around.

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One person that made a hell of a lot of
promises,

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now really creating some havoc in some of
these emerging markets.

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Well, it's interesting also you talk about
the Trump trade because he campaigned on

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I'm going to get prices down.

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But what the bond market is telling us
that he's not going to get prices down.

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He's not going to keep prices level.

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In fact, he's going to do the opposite.

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And this is a, I don't know whether you
say reflationary or inflationary trade,

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because bond yields have risen, not
dramatically,

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but they've risen, because they think that
if tariffs are initiated according to his

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manifesto, or his,

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rather his campaign promises, there'll be
20% here, 50% there, 200% in other places.

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So of course that hits the consumer and it
raises inflation.

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So the bond market is a little bit on
edge.

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So that, to me, that's the big one.

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But on the other hand, last week...

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was the best u.s markets week of the year
so the equity traders love him but the

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bond

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traders don't yeah there's so many so many
things i mean him talking about

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uh bringing the corporate tax rate down
from 21 to 15 people's done you know quite

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a bit of calculations i can't

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recall and sorry for the source now but uh
how i i i think it was either city group

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or goldman

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sachs they brought a report where they
look at these individual sectors, the

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consumer discretionary, consumer staples,

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tech sectors, and how each of these
sectors should have an advantage if we

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decrease the corporate tax rate from 21%
to 15%.

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How this could literally on the S&P 500
have a 4% difference on earnings for the

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next year and

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going forward.

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Now, I mean, I look at this and I say,
well, it's all...

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all fantastic listening to all these
things he's he's been been talking about

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cutting interest rates

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uh tax rates how you know these tariffs
and and i just exactly first thing that i

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i look at this

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and say well this isn't it's got to be
inflationary i mean you're just not gonna

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just push our prices

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you know coming from from china

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and other countries producing these and
you're not going to push our prices i mean

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that's the first point

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Secondly, I mean, where is he going to
yes, if you cut corporate taxes,

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you need to make up for it somewhere along
the line because as we sit here, the U.S.

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government debt is just shy of well, when
I say U.S.

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government debt to GDP, it's just shy of
130 percent.

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That's Japanese-style stuff, isn't it?

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I mean, that's incredible.

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Exactly, exactly.

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When Trump took

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office for the first time that was in 2016
I mean they were there was already sitting

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at

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98% and we know and we've spoken about it
last week on the UK

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scenario they now at a 98 percent uh debt
to gdp levels and people are extremely

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worried if you look at the how the pound
has has been been under under pressure

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lately and that is one of the main reasons

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markets are or countries are currently a

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little bit worried that the uk you know
maybe bit off a little bit more than they

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can chew and they they had 98

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that's where where trump took office in
2016.

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they're sitting at 130 percent how

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the hell is he going to do what he
promised to be doing without just kicking

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out that debt levels even

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a hell of a lot more so yeah i mean what's
it um uh what's it john

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arthur uh from from bloomberg he had a
great um he's

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got a daily newsletter and he had a
newsletter that he brought out yesterday

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and

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i thought that was what was quite a nice i
don't know if you

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read it where he said he's he's he's got
this he's got this 1928 feeling and

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and and just for everyone for people that
are too young to know what happened after

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1928 the biggest crash on on wall street
yeah and then many

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many years of not just recession but
depression horrible horrible years and

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that's when the far right of course

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rose you And you can see, and I'm getting
politics in here just for a minute, and

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then you can go on with your market
analysis.

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What has happened this year is that almost
every single election there's been, and

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there's been lots of them,

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the incumbent has been turned over by the
person seeking power.

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So even the UK, okay, the UK went from
right to left with Keir Starmer.

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Italy went far right.

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South Africa.

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The ANC lost its majority, so I had to get
a coalition going.

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And so it goes on.

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And that's exactly what happened in the
1930s. So there are parallels.

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I don't think anything like what came
after the 1930s will happen again.

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But there's certainly some stuff going on.

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People are not satisfied, Skalk.

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It's as simple as that.

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Exactly.

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That's where the similarity, politically,
we've got some similarities.

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you know, to 1928.

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I mean, Herbert Hoover, and that was, I
think, he was the 31st president of the

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US.

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So I'll go and check afterwards.

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But as I can recall, I think it was the
31st president of the USA.

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I mean, he was a business mogul.

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He was a really, I mean, actually a mining
mogul, but he was a wealthy businessman.

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And how they got him in, and when I say
they, the Republicans got him in.

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and say, well, you need to come and run
for office.

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We need you.

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I mean, we're looking around and things
are a little bit, you know, worrying.

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And a very successful campaign.

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I mean, extremely successful.

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And as the campaign ran towards the end,
very similar to Trump now,

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people were expecting him to win, which he
did.

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It was an absolute landslide.

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Very similar this time around.

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Democrats got their teeth kicked in.

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But the run-up.

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As the campaign was positive,

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the S&P 500 were just running on this
euphoria that Hoover

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is going to be the most fantastic
president.

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He's going to make America great again.

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And yeah, he got elected and markets
reacted well, markets, the U.S.

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market reacted extremely positive.

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They still threw the money in, as you
correctly mentioned.

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A few months later, the great crash.

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To date, if you go and Google the words
great crash, you still get the 1929 crash.

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And as you mentioned, I mean, that was
followed by the Great Depression in the

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30s.

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So my advice to the listeners out there is
not that history is going to repeat itself

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and

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because they were both bitless moguls.

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That's not what I'm saying.

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I'm just saying as we sit here.

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The U.S.

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market are traded at elevated levels.

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I've released a tweet today where I look
at the K pressure.

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I've now recently combined the K pressure
and the forward piece.

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And no matter which way you look at it,

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we're currently sitting at some of the
most elevated levels that the U.S.

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market has seen in history.

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And that, to me, is worrying because...

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People are not, I'm calling it insanity.

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Investors are not approaching this market
with sanity.

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They are really throwing money out of this
and saying, Trump is going to make America

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great again.

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He's going to do all those things which
you're going to say.

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I'll look at this and say, he does not
have the ammunition.

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I mean, when you were running 98% debt to
GDP levels,

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you sort of had some movement.

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Now he's sitting at around 30%.

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I want to see him do half, just half, the
stuff he promised he'll be doing.

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There's lots of promises that need to be
kept and some of which won't be.

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But anyway, let's get into what happened
in the States today before we come to

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South Africa.

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Consumer prices rose slightly in October,
was in line with expectations.

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A 2.6% annual rise in October, as
expected,

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and the consumer price index gained 0.2%
month over month.

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But the market didn't like it.

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The dollar strengthened, the bond yields
have...

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Well, look at the RAND, for goodness sake.

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Do you think, you talked about the Trump
trade,

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do you think this is the Trump trade in
one little microcosm of data?

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Because obviously this is not to do with
Trump, this is to do with world markets

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and the Biden administration.

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and everything else, mainly world markets,
I would say.

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But do you think that next year he'll sit
down one day and say, OK,

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the tariffs have increased the basket of
the average American family, and that's

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not what I promised.

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I promised exactly the opposite.

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And then we could have problems because
the bond market falls and because people

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suddenly say, well, you know,

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a promise is a promise, and you always say
that you keep your promises.

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Yeah, I think that's going to I really
just want to see how he's going to be able

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to keep his promises.

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And yes, the currencies are let's call it
the emerging market currencies,

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BRICS currencies.

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We're taking sort of the hit on the Trump
trade.

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I mean, yes, we've had the dollar-rand
again weakening somewhat, you know, again

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today,

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further weakening.

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But when I look at the Brazilian realm
They actually weaken a little bit more.

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When I look at things like the Mexican
peso, they weaken a little bit more.

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So this is not a South African thing.

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This is a dollar index trading way of… No,
I wasn't singling out South Africa at all.

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In fact, I'm putting together a podcast
now about emerging market currencies,

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emerging market debt, and emerging market
government debt as well,

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the ability to repay the outstanding
loans.

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And they were doing quite well with
interest rates falling, but now suddenly…

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The Treasury Department's lots of
governments must be saying,

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wait a second, interest rates might go up
again under this Donald J.

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Trump fellow.

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It could happen.

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It's an emerging market story, not just a
South African story.

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Yeah.

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No, no, no, definitely.

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Definitely.

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I think all eyes are going to be on
inflation next year.

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I mean, you know my stance.

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I mean, you and I have had the stagflation
conversation so many, many times.

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I don't think that's off the table yet.

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I think one of the things we've definitely
had wrong this year is

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I think most of investors or let's call it
professionals out there said that there's

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going to be some sort of recession.

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It might just be a mild one.

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And here we're sitting

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13th of November and we haven't seen any
major recessions anywhere in the world

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really.

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But I do think it's going to be
interesting.

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Interesting year next year.

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I'm going to be watching this inflation
mark because, you know,

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I told you about the graph where I look at
the late 70s, beginning 80s, that

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stagflation period.

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00:13:41.949 --> 00:13:42.951
And for the listeners out there that
didn't follow our previous podcast,

237
00:13:43.391 --> 00:13:50.297
stagflation is pretty much a period in a
country or economy

238
00:13:50.597 --> 00:13:56.282
where you've got very low economic growth,
sometimes even recessions.

239
00:13:56.722 --> 00:14:03.047
negative growth, you've got very low
employment, and you've got high inflation.

240
00:14:03.568 --> 00:14:05.810
It's a very dangerous environment to be
in.

241
00:14:06.851 --> 00:14:12.596
And what Lindsay has said, I mean, we
might just see inflation kick up next

242
00:14:12.596 --> 00:14:12.855
year,

243
00:14:12.855 --> 00:14:18.641
and we know that the job market has been
sort of surviving, surviving in the U.S.,

244
00:14:18.701 --> 00:14:24.846
but if that thing just goes under further
pressure, I think then stagflation might

245
00:14:24.846 --> 00:14:26.846
just be back on.

246
00:14:26.846 --> 00:14:28.846
on track.

247
00:14:28.846 --> 00:14:30.846
For a policymaker, the worst thing you can
have is stagflation.

248
00:14:30.846 --> 00:14:32.846
In other words, a stagnant economy.

249
00:14:32.846 --> 00:14:34.846
So you've got to boost it.

250
00:14:34.846 --> 00:14:36.846
You've got to cut interest rates.

251
00:14:36.846 --> 00:14:38.846
You've got to pump money into the system.

252
00:14:38.846 --> 00:14:40.846
And then you've got inflation.

253
00:14:40.846 --> 00:14:42.846
And if you do what I've just said, then
inflation runs right again.

254
00:14:42.846 --> 00:14:44.846
It's a horrible situation.

255
00:14:44.846 --> 00:14:46.846
So hopefully it doesn't prevail.

256
00:14:46.846 --> 00:14:48.887
Let's have a look at those markets that
we've been talking about, because the

257
00:14:48.887 --> 00:14:50.887
dollar round is now 1815.

258
00:14:50.887 --> 00:14:52.550
And that's a 0.4% rise for the US dollar.

259
00:14:53.294 --> 00:14:57.135
British pound 23.04, virtually unchanged.

260
00:14:57.155 --> 00:15:00.076
Euro-Rand is 19.17, behaving itself.

261
00:15:00.376 --> 00:15:06.358
Euro-Dollar though, 105.70, and that is a
Euro falling by about half a percent

262
00:15:06.358 --> 00:15:08.358
against the US dollar.

263
00:15:08.358 --> 00:15:11.459
The gold price, let's call it 2600, let's
give it the benefit of the doubt.

264
00:15:12.119 --> 00:15:17.861
Platinum is 9.44 and Palladium 9.33.

265
00:15:17.861 --> 00:15:20.222
Last time we spoke, they were both in four
figures.

266
00:15:20.622 --> 00:15:21.642
Now they're both deeply.

267
00:15:22.042 --> 00:15:24.507
in three figures, which is not great.

268
00:15:24.788 --> 00:15:25.790
What is great, though...

269
00:15:26.306 --> 00:15:30.269
is that the oil price, this could save us
from stagflation,

270
00:15:30.870 --> 00:15:35.654
because the Brent crude oil price is down
just over a percent to $71.15.

271
00:15:35.654 --> 00:15:42.420
And I saw a report today from some
Augustan institution that said oil prices

272
00:15:42.420 --> 00:15:44.420
next year will be $40 a barrel

273
00:15:44.420 --> 00:15:48.445
because the voluntary production cuts from
the OPEC countries are going to be thrown

274
00:15:48.445 --> 00:15:50.445
out the window.

275
00:15:50.445 --> 00:15:52.188
They're just going to pump, pump, pump
like Trump, Trump, Trump says.

276
00:15:52.268 --> 00:15:54.130
I just want to just honour...

277
00:15:54.250 --> 00:16:00.735
point if that is the case then i mean i
mean after the the one company i've been

278
00:16:00.735 --> 00:16:02.735
and we'll talk chat about uh

279
00:16:02.735 --> 00:16:08.582
it's like sshs and and and just a minute
or two but yeah in a sassel i mean this

280
00:16:08.582 --> 00:16:10.582
this company has just gone from from

281
00:16:10.582 --> 00:16:15.367
absolute euro to absolute zero i mean this
thing has just been dropping every day and

282
00:16:15.367 --> 00:16:17.367
we

283
00:16:17.367 --> 00:16:22.233
looked at it yesterday where we chatted
about it and and they they would start

284
00:16:22.233 --> 00:16:24.233
making losses if

285
00:16:24.233 --> 00:16:26.911
the oil price all price drop below $55 a
barrel.

286
00:16:27.171 --> 00:16:34.135
So what you just said, if that comes true,
then yeah, that will be buy or buy.

287
00:16:34.255 --> 00:16:40.477
If you look at the long term graph, and if
you are a bit of a graphist, ignore the

288
00:16:40.477 --> 00:16:42.477
fundamentals, which you can't, of course,

289
00:16:42.477 --> 00:16:44.299
I think it's going to down to $30 to $40 a
barrel in the next year.

290
00:16:44.699 --> 00:16:49.981
And I put that out a couple of months ago
to a technical analyst, and he said, what

291
00:16:49.981 --> 00:16:51.981
should I buy?

292
00:16:51.981 --> 00:16:53.981
Should I buy December?

293
00:16:53.981 --> 00:16:58.247
put options i said no go into the new year
so yeah it's it doesn't look great uh

294
00:16:58.247 --> 00:17:00.247
brent crude oil anyways it's bounced a bit
actually as we're

295
00:17:00.247 --> 00:17:03.931
speaking about it being negative 71 32
it's only down 0.8 percent now and west

296
00:17:03.931 --> 00:17:05.931
texas crude is

297
00:17:05.931 --> 00:17:08.114
67.55 which is down 0.8 as

298
00:17:08.194 --> 00:17:14.879
well uh what else have we got here wheat
price is down 1.8 uh all sorts of copper

299
00:17:14.879 --> 00:17:16.879
down one and a quarter percent now

300
00:17:16.879 --> 00:17:19.002
it's only four dollars and seven cents per
pound

301
00:17:19.526 --> 00:17:23.707
threatening to break down below the key $4
level.

302
00:17:24.147 --> 00:17:28.549
Now then, S&P 500 futures after a
brilliant week last week with the Trump

303
00:17:28.549 --> 00:17:28.649
trade.

304
00:17:29.109 --> 00:17:29.929
It's fiddling around.

305
00:17:29.929 --> 00:17:31.169
It's still above 6,000.

306
00:17:31.790 --> 00:17:36.871
It's 6,000 and, as my screen furiously
updates, 6,004.

307
00:17:37.151 --> 00:17:40.052
It's down a little bit on the day, but
goodness me, what a year it's had.

308
00:17:40.552 --> 00:17:46.214
I think the S&P people will be looking
forward to sending out their year-end

309
00:17:46.214 --> 00:17:48.214
statements.

310
00:17:48.214 --> 00:17:49.655
US 10-year bond yield, 4.415%.

311
00:17:49.995 --> 00:17:53.156
The South African 10-year is 9.35%.

312
00:17:53.736 --> 00:18:00.178
And the Bitcoin price, this is
fascinating, Skulk, because of Trump and

313
00:18:00.178 --> 00:18:02.178
Musk,

314
00:18:03.159 --> 00:18:04.599
91,700, up nearly 6% today.

315
00:18:04.739 --> 00:18:05.439
It is.

316
00:18:05.439 --> 00:18:06.019
It's complete madness.

317
00:18:06.760 --> 00:18:08.620
But good luck to those people that have
bought it.

318
00:18:08.980 --> 00:18:10.421
And I saw an interesting graph.

319
00:18:10.441 --> 00:18:15.222
I don't know if you sent it, but I saw it
somewhere on X, and it plotted...

320
00:18:15.598 --> 00:18:17.419
Bitcoin versus the Nasdaq.

321
00:18:18.099 --> 00:18:21.820
Bitcoin is a tech stock, essentially, if
you have a look at that.

322
00:18:22.360 --> 00:18:23.060
You can do that.

323
00:18:23.060 --> 00:18:25.421
I know you're a very clever person when it
comes to graphing.

324
00:18:25.981 --> 00:18:26.681
You can do that.

325
00:18:27.081 --> 00:18:30.702
Nasdaq versus Bitcoin, almost identical,
Skunk.

326
00:18:31.282 --> 00:18:32.063
No, I'll have a look.

327
00:18:32.263 --> 00:18:33.203
You must do.

328
00:18:33.403 --> 00:18:37.024
And stick it out on X or LinkedIn or
something like that.

329
00:18:37.304 --> 00:18:43.666
Tell me about the stocks on the JSC
Securities Exchange and start with Sasol.

330
00:18:44.990 --> 00:18:48.413
Yes, Cecil today had a bit of, well,

331
00:18:49.234 --> 00:18:52.997
I actually had to look twice because at
the end of the day,

332
00:18:53.737 --> 00:18:57.220
an actual positive territory just shoved
1% up.

333
00:18:57.280 --> 00:19:00.923
So that was sort of, yeah, we don't see
that a lot.

334
00:19:00.943 --> 00:19:05.928
But I think on the JSC today, markets
still, you know, slightly negative.

335
00:19:05.928 --> 00:19:08.830
We did see a bit of a recovery from
resource stocks.

336
00:19:09.270 --> 00:19:13.054
Companies that reported or brought out
trading statements.

337
00:19:13.694 --> 00:19:19.958
not a lot we had amira bringing out a well
six month results um and

338
00:19:20.539 --> 00:19:27.483
uh not a not a lot of action there and the
share price reacted about you know 36

339
00:19:27.483 --> 00:19:29.483
basis points negative um

340
00:19:29.483 --> 00:19:35.108
10 cent came out with very very strongish
uh third quarter results um diluted hips

341
00:19:35.108 --> 00:19:37.108
per

342
00:19:37.108 --> 00:19:42.093
share was up 50 percent um but you just
get this feeling now that that that i

343
00:19:42.093 --> 00:19:43.254
think it was for standard bank

344
00:19:44.014 --> 00:19:50.877
They had a comment where they said that
the market expectations appeared to have

345
00:19:50.877 --> 00:19:52.877
caught up to 10

346
00:19:52.877 --> 00:19:54.877
cents fundamentals now.

347
00:19:54.877 --> 00:19:58.981
So you need to get big surprises now to
really see the likes of 10 cents move.

348
00:19:59.521 --> 00:20:01.762
NASPERS reacted.

349
00:20:01.822 --> 00:20:07.164
They're still down 48 basis points for
today and process down 1.13.

350
00:20:07.464 --> 00:20:10.946
And then finally, we had results from...

351
00:20:11.346 --> 00:20:12.046
great.

352
00:20:12.087 --> 00:20:13.430
We don't have to spend a lot of time.

353
00:20:13.671 --> 00:20:20.504
I just always find it fascinating to look
at this little company where they did

354
00:20:20.504 --> 00:20:22.504
fairly well out of

355
00:20:22.504 --> 00:20:23.650
holding in Premier Foods.

356
00:20:25.331 --> 00:20:30.675
The net asset value still trading, you
know, 3.10, with the share price that

357
00:20:30.675 --> 00:20:30.754
closed at

358
00:20:31.035 --> 00:20:33.517
1.91. That's still a bit of a discount.

359
00:20:33.537 --> 00:20:34.818
But here's the fun part.

360
00:20:35.539 --> 00:20:40.783
I mean, 61% of Braid is pretty much Virgin
Active.

361
00:20:41.183 --> 00:20:44.486
So it seems like people might be going
back to the gym.

362
00:20:46.022 --> 00:20:47.883
They actually stopped going to the gym in
COVID.

363
00:20:49.043 --> 00:20:52.084
Yeah, in the old days with lockdown, you
bought Peloton stuff, and now

364
00:20:53.004 --> 00:20:57.265
Peloton is gathering dust in your utility
room, if you're lucky enough to have one,

365
00:20:57.265 --> 00:21:03.427
and now you go back to the gym so you can
look at other people and say to yourself,

366
00:21:03.427 --> 00:21:05.427
well, I don't look that bad.

367
00:21:05.427 --> 00:21:07.427
I never go to the gym.

368
00:21:07.427 --> 00:21:09.427
Are you a gymmer?

369
00:21:09.427 --> 00:21:11.427
I'm not.

370
00:21:11.427 --> 00:21:13.427
I'm not.

371
00:21:13.427 --> 00:21:15.427
I'm definitely not a gymmer.

372
00:21:15.427 --> 00:21:17.427
I do stay active.

373
00:21:17.427 --> 00:21:19.048
I do go for training,

374
00:21:20.468 --> 00:21:23.050
but I don't formally go to a Virgin Active
now.

375
00:21:24.810 --> 00:21:30.773
Interesting, like I said, 61% of Bright is
Virgin Active now.

376
00:21:31.453 --> 00:21:33.734
That did kick up.

377
00:21:33.894 --> 00:21:38.636
It did seem like revenue did look good.

378
00:21:39.757 --> 00:21:42.898
Earnings-wise, there was quite a nice
little bit of growth.

379
00:21:43.286 --> 00:21:46.647
coming from Virgin Active and Shareprice
loved it.

380
00:21:46.747 --> 00:21:52.870
I mean that was most probably one of the
best performers today on the JSE up 5.52

381
00:21:52.870 --> 00:21:54.870
percent so yeah

382
00:21:54.870 --> 00:22:00.253
I think it's been a company that's been
under immense pressure over the past few

383
00:22:00.253 --> 00:22:02.253
years so this might just be might be a

384
00:22:02.253 --> 00:22:04.253
bit of a turn of the tide.

385
00:22:04.253 --> 00:22:08.517
So interesting that Braid is suddenly a
gym company amazing stuff what it's how it

386
00:22:08.517 --> 00:22:10.517
keeps on not reinventing

387
00:22:10.517 --> 00:22:11.878
itself I mean that's far too flattering a
word but anyway.

388
00:22:12.178 --> 00:22:12.978
It's a gym company.

389
00:22:13.059 --> 00:22:19.142
On the upside on the JC today, according
to my screen, pick and pay up 4.1%,

390
00:22:19.142 --> 00:22:21.142
Italtile up 3.4%,

391
00:22:21.142 --> 00:22:25.546
Pan-African Resources up one and
two-thirds, Harmony up one and a quarter,

392
00:22:25.546 --> 00:22:27.546
Anglo-Gold Ashanti up 1.1%.

393
00:22:27.546 --> 00:22:32.169
On the downside, the ones that are
meaningful, Implats down another 2.1%,

394
00:22:32.169 --> 00:22:34.169
Quilter down 2.1%,

395
00:22:34.169 --> 00:22:34.571
and BidCorp down 2% as well.

396
00:22:35.071 --> 00:22:36.032
Any others to add there?

397
00:22:36.592 --> 00:22:37.292
No, you've done it.

398
00:22:37.652 --> 00:22:38.353
No, you've done it.

399
00:22:38.353 --> 00:22:39.273
Yeah, I've covered them all.

400
00:22:39.634 --> 00:22:40.334
Okay.

401
00:22:40.694 --> 00:22:44.977
Give us the closing JSC indices, if you
would, Skalk, and also the value traded,

402
00:22:44.977 --> 00:22:46.977
please.

403
00:22:46.977 --> 00:22:51.822
So the JSC today closed at 83,803 points.

404
00:22:51.862 --> 00:22:54.784
That was down 47 basis points.

405
00:22:54.844 --> 00:23:00.048
The top 40 closed 75,763 points, also down
48 basis points.

406
00:23:00.348 --> 00:23:04.831
And as mentioned, the resource index
managed to keep itself in the green.

407
00:23:04.831 --> 00:23:09.074
It was a little bit stronger midday, but
did give up some of the…

408
00:23:09.334 --> 00:23:16.240
the early early gains that we had like i
said only five basis points in the green

409
00:23:16.240 --> 00:23:18.240
then uh industrials

410
00:23:18.240 --> 00:23:19.142
down 52 basis points while financials were
down

411
00:23:19.563 --> 00:23:25.848
68 basis points and the sa property index
they took a massive breather with this

412
00:23:25.848 --> 00:23:27.848
rant weakening

413
00:23:27.848 --> 00:23:32.854
down 1.1 percent i wouldn't read too much
in there and then the volumes not a lot of

414
00:23:32.854 --> 00:23:32.873
volume today

415
00:23:33.054 --> 00:23:39.019
17.75 billion value traded on the market
for today It's that time of year, isn't

416
00:23:39.019 --> 00:23:39.358
it?

417
00:23:39.358 --> 00:23:39.779
Yeah.

418
00:23:39.839 --> 00:23:40.539
Okay.

419
00:23:40.720 --> 00:23:43.421
Just very quickly, the dollar ran under
pressure 1816.

420
00:23:43.781 --> 00:23:50.085
And this is just the beginning of the
Trump residency, the anticipation of Trump

421
00:23:50.085 --> 00:23:52.085
being in power for four years.

422
00:23:52.085 --> 00:23:56.828
If he does do what he does, I fear for
emerging markets, you know, their bonds

423
00:23:56.828 --> 00:23:58.828
and their currencies.

424
00:23:58.828 --> 00:24:00.828
Am I right to be fearful?

425
00:24:00.828 --> 00:24:02.828
Yeah.

426
00:24:02.828 --> 00:24:04.828
Yeah.

427
00:24:04.828 --> 00:24:06.828
You need to be fearful.

428
00:24:06.828 --> 00:24:07.094
I think he's definitely focused on
America.

429
00:24:07.994 --> 00:24:11.595
And these countries, like I said, emerging
markets,

430
00:24:11.815 --> 00:24:17.477
that is one of our biggest trading
partners is the US.

431
00:24:17.617 --> 00:24:19.917
I mean, I think they're third largest,
fourth largest.

432
00:24:19.937 --> 00:24:21.438
They are definitely one of our top five.

433
00:24:21.438 --> 00:24:27.599
So if they're going to turn around and
say, well, yes, you can continue doing

434
00:24:27.599 --> 00:24:29.599
business with us,

435
00:24:29.599 --> 00:24:30.940
but we're going to be slapping you with
these tariffs.

436
00:24:31.040 --> 00:24:31.740
Yes.

437
00:24:31.740 --> 00:24:36.682
This is going to be an awkward
conversation and can't be good for any of

438
00:24:36.682 --> 00:24:36.742
these countries.

439
00:24:36.882 --> 00:24:41.044
And you know what Trump thinks of Africa,
of course, because of his comments in the

440
00:24:41.044 --> 00:24:41.144
past.

441
00:24:42.585 --> 00:24:43.526
Off-guard comments.

442
00:24:43.526 --> 00:24:44.726
He called it the shithole.

443
00:24:44.886 --> 00:24:47.948
Yeah, he called us, he said these shithole
countries.

444
00:24:48.488 --> 00:24:50.670
And it really doesn't bode well.

445
00:24:50.850 --> 00:24:57.533
I mean, if he looks down his list of
priorities, you've got China and Israel

446
00:24:57.533 --> 00:24:59.533
and Russia, of course, and all those
things.

447
00:24:59.533 --> 00:25:00.495
And it goes down and right at the bottom,
you've got Africa.

448
00:25:00.935 --> 00:25:05.518
And so if there's any money going into
Africa at the moment, it won't be going in

449
00:25:05.518 --> 00:25:07.518
there in the future.

450
00:25:07.518 --> 00:25:09.284
If there's any money going to COP, that
money's gone.

451
00:25:09.304 --> 00:25:15.235
So everything that is not on his agenda,
anything that he either doesn't understand

452
00:25:15.235 --> 00:25:17.235
or doesn't value,

453
00:25:17.235 --> 00:25:19.235
is going to be gone.

454
00:25:19.235 --> 00:25:21.235
And I can tell you what.

455
00:25:21.235 --> 00:25:23.235
It won't be good.

456
00:25:23.235 --> 00:25:25.418
The next four years will not be good for
South Africa and for the African

457
00:25:25.418 --> 00:25:27.418
continent, which is, yeah,

458
00:25:27.418 --> 00:25:27.619
I understand his stance.

459
00:25:27.660 --> 00:25:32.824
But for goodness sake, it's you can't just
throw things out just like that.

460
00:25:34.285 --> 00:25:40.530
Yeah, I think it's going to be an
interesting conversation because because,

461
00:25:40.530 --> 00:25:42.530
yeah, you're right.

462
00:25:42.530 --> 00:25:43.112
It's going to be difficult.

463
00:25:43.672 --> 00:25:47.856
But let's just take let's just take things
like platinum and palladium just for.

464
00:25:48.672 --> 00:25:50.193
interest sake.

465
00:25:50.273 --> 00:25:56.457
We know that as we sit here, that we're
the largest platinum producer and second

466
00:25:56.457 --> 00:25:58.457
largest palladium inversely.

467
00:25:58.457 --> 00:26:03.482
We're the second largest palladium and
second largest palladium.

468
00:26:05.724 --> 00:26:07.325
The thing is, what are you going to do?

469
00:26:07.425 --> 00:26:13.809
Between us and Russia, we pretty much
have, let's call it 60% of the platinum

470
00:26:13.809 --> 00:26:15.809
and palladium market.

471
00:26:15.809 --> 00:26:21.811
As we sit here, I don't know if that's
changed, but- Russia still got slapped

472
00:26:21.811 --> 00:26:23.811
with a huge amount of sanctions.

473
00:26:23.811 --> 00:26:27.334
So they do get their commodities out, but
it's not going to be easy to get it out.

474
00:26:27.835 --> 00:26:32.618
If they're going to be slapping these
tariffs and say, well, we know I'm going

475
00:26:32.618 --> 00:26:34.618
to do business with Africa.

476
00:26:34.618 --> 00:26:39.462
I'm telling you, it's going to be
difficult to get a hold of some of these

477
00:26:39.462 --> 00:26:41.462
commodities,

478
00:26:41.462 --> 00:26:43.405
these BGMs, these commodities that we are
producing.

479
00:26:44.046 --> 00:26:47.408
Back to this is going to be very, very
interesting because.

480
00:26:47.788 --> 00:26:49.950
He talks a good go,

481
00:26:50.590 --> 00:26:57.396
but he also says that we're going to get
and keep inflation to the lowest levels

482
00:26:57.396 --> 00:26:59.396
that we've seen in decades.

483
00:26:59.396 --> 00:27:00.779
The two do not make sense.

484
00:27:00.779 --> 00:27:04.001
They need to talk to each other, and
unfortunately, this is not going to be the

485
00:27:04.001 --> 00:27:04.361
case.

486
00:27:04.361 --> 00:27:05.162
So, yes, I agree.

487
00:27:05.783 --> 00:27:09.986
If everything he says happens, it's not
going to be good for South Africa, but

488
00:27:10.787 --> 00:27:16.292
I've got a feeling he's going to retrace
in some of these hard talks.

489
00:27:17.248 --> 00:27:18.589
Yes, he's a politician.

490
00:27:18.769 --> 00:27:21.571
So of course, it's a given that he's going
to break promises.

491
00:27:21.931 --> 00:27:24.113
Skulk, thank you very much for your time
this evening, as always.

492
00:27:24.453 --> 00:27:28.536
Skulk Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth, Old Oak in Cape Town.

493
00:27:28.836 --> 00:27:30.337
And that was the five o'clock shadow.

494
00:27:30.957 --> 00:27:37.922
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

495
00:27:37.922 --> 00:27:39.922
various contributors and do not reflect
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496
00:27:39.922 --> 00:27:41.664
position or opinion of any other agency,
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497
00:27:41.985 --> 00:27:46.628
employer or company associated with
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498
00:27:47.088 --> 00:27:54.053
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
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499
00:27:54.053 --> 00:27:56.053
entity other than the speaker or the
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500
00:27:56.053 --> 00:27:59.536
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

501
00:27:59.536 --> 00:27:59.636
change,

502
00:27:59.796 --> 00:28:02.358
revision and rethinking at any time.

503
00:28:02.678 --> 00:28:05.080
Please do not hold us to them in
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