WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:04.548 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.268 --> 00:00:08.691 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:08.691 --> 00:00:08.831 shadow. 4 00:00:08.831 --> 00:00:15.237 And as it's a Wednesday, I speak to Skalk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old 5 00:00:15.237 --> 00:00:17.237 Oak in Cape Town. 6 00:00:17.237 --> 00:00:19.040 Now, Skalk, I've got mixed feelings about the US election being over, 7 00:00:19.341 --> 00:00:25.246 because I really enjoyed the fascinating, almost morbidly fascinating, 8 00:00:25.786 --> 00:00:27.608 sight of Donald Trump standing up. 9 00:00:28.124 --> 00:00:32.965 and giving a speech, and then giving another speech, and saying the most 10 00:00:32.965 --> 00:00:34.965 outlandish things. 11 00:00:34.965 --> 00:00:35.986 But on the other hand, I didn't sleep at night. 12 00:00:36.286 --> 00:00:41.508 So now, tonight, I'm going to turn off CNN and Fox News and the BBC, 13 00:00:42.068 --> 00:00:44.429 and I'm going to get a good night's kip, I hope. 14 00:00:44.429 --> 00:00:49.610 I hope my body hasn't sort of started to get used to the fact that I'm up from 12 15 00:00:49.610 --> 00:00:51.610 till 4 in the morning. 16 00:00:51.610 --> 00:00:51.711 But anyway, never mind that. 17 00:00:51.931 --> 00:00:55.692 I was watching the S&P 500 futures tick up to, like, 2.... 18 00:00:56.180 --> 00:01:00.303 to 2.3% higher as soon as it became apparent that Mr. 19 00:01:00.343 --> 00:01:04.546 Trump would be the 47th president of the United States of America. 20 00:01:04.726 --> 00:01:05.446 What a story. 21 00:01:06.567 --> 00:01:08.969 Yeah, and what a whitewash as well, man. 22 00:01:09.169 --> 00:01:14.653 It was, yeah, eventually it ended up just being a walk in the park for him. 23 00:01:14.833 --> 00:01:18.535 I mean, that's the presidency, it's the House, and it's the Senate. 24 00:01:18.535 --> 00:01:21.777 I mean, that's just the perfect trifecta. 25 00:01:22.758 --> 00:01:25.380 I heard some stats, you know, last time we've seen. 26 00:01:25.964 --> 00:01:28.605 Such a demolishment of the Democrats. 27 00:01:29.085 --> 00:01:30.286 I think it was the 80s so yeah, 28 00:01:30.286 --> 00:01:36.629 it's a it's a it's a massive massive best victory and 29 00:01:36.989 --> 00:01:40.470 markets How does the same guys sanity will prevail? 30 00:01:40.590 --> 00:01:46.733 I'm gonna change that up and say insanity will prevail because the men today I just 31 00:01:46.733 --> 00:01:48.733 see a 32 00:01:48.733 --> 00:01:49.794 Absolute insane market. 33 00:01:50.074 --> 00:01:54.416 Yes, you're quite right and and I would really caution 34 00:01:54.596 --> 00:02:01.563 you know most investors out there listening to this podcast saying that man 35 00:02:01.563 --> 00:02:03.563 this is this is it we we need to follow it 36 00:02:03.563 --> 00:02:08.609 like you know like a like a like a herd and because this is i mean we've had 37 00:02:08.609 --> 00:02:10.609 goldman sachs coming out and 38 00:02:10.609 --> 00:02:14.855 say well they definitely extremely positive about the outcome this is going 39 00:02:14.855 --> 00:02:16.855 to be very very good for for 40 00:02:16.855 --> 00:02:20.000 the um for the s p five and they're adjusting their forecast 41 00:02:20.536 --> 00:02:27.140 and if people go look at what they've adjusted their forecast to when it's still 42 00:02:27.140 --> 00:02:29.140 you know trading the market is now trading you know 43 00:02:29.140 --> 00:02:34.023 above their current forecast with them being extremely bullish so you know 44 00:02:34.023 --> 00:02:36.023 someone gets paid seven 45 00:02:36.023 --> 00:02:38.246 figures to come up with that rubbish you do know that day the 46 00:02:38.266 --> 00:02:42.448 s p is trading at 5 900 and they'll put out a report saying our target is 5 47 00:02:42.788 --> 00:02:49.552 925 for the end of the year it's actually 4850 end of next year 48 00:02:49.972 --> 00:02:53.293 So, and they're extremely bullish. 49 00:02:53.773 --> 00:02:59.035 And yeah, anyway, I mean, naturally today the West is best. 50 00:02:59.355 --> 00:03:05.657 I mean, I can't remember, I was always waiting to use this little poem of mine, 51 00:03:05.717 --> 00:03:06.517 West is best. 52 00:03:08.097 --> 00:03:12.599 We find ourselves, unfortunately, as the S within bricks. 53 00:03:13.139 --> 00:03:15.980 And I know people say Brazil is also there in the West. 54 00:03:16.020 --> 00:03:16.720 But... 55 00:03:16.720 --> 00:03:20.709 You know, we find ourselves, unfortunately, on the side of the East. 56 00:03:20.849 --> 00:03:24.990 And, you know, as positive the U.S. 57 00:03:25.270 --> 00:03:29.892 performed today, I mean, that negative JSE actually followed. 58 00:03:30.172 --> 00:03:32.552 Yes, well, we know why that is, and we'll come to that later on. 59 00:03:32.732 --> 00:03:37.894 But when you look at what happened today on the S&P and also on the bond market, it 60 00:03:37.894 --> 00:03:39.894 seems to me that people, 61 00:03:39.894 --> 00:03:43.455 despite the fact that Trump has played during the run-ups of the election, he's 62 00:03:43.455 --> 00:03:43.595 played the 63 00:03:43.835 --> 00:03:45.676 I'm going to bring inflation down card. 64 00:03:45.944 --> 00:03:49.947 The market's really saying, no, inflation is going to go up under you, 65 00:03:50.087 --> 00:03:55.132 and whether it be because of the expansionary nature of the economy, 66 00:03:55.672 --> 00:04:02.217 and companies will do well, and there'll be a whole load of money going into the 67 00:04:02.217 --> 00:04:04.217 system, and people will be prosperous, 68 00:04:04.217 --> 00:04:05.881 or whether it be the Trump tariffs, if they come, 69 00:04:06.521 --> 00:04:10.284 putting the consumer under pressure and prices go higher, I don't know. 70 00:04:10.604 --> 00:04:14.768 But certainly the bond market has done badly, and the stock market has done well. 71 00:04:16.568 --> 00:04:20.290 Yeah, so, I mean, we're looking at the US. 72 00:04:20.490 --> 00:04:22.451 I mean, it's interesting. 73 00:04:22.631 --> 00:04:28.933 I look at this and I really laugh because, I mean, we're going to chat about a few 74 00:04:28.933 --> 00:04:29.113 things. 75 00:04:29.113 --> 00:04:31.094 I mean, for instance, gold dropping 3%. 76 00:04:32.335 --> 00:04:34.996 I mean, the currency, the rent. 77 00:04:35.116 --> 00:04:38.017 I mean, well, this year's dollar-dollar really strengthening. 78 00:04:39.358 --> 00:04:45.080 It's as if the whole world forgot that Trump… 79 00:04:45.620 --> 00:04:52.309 it's going to add even more debt um to to achieve what is promised to achieve he's 80 00:04:52.309 --> 00:04:52.569 going to make 81 00:04:52.569 --> 00:04:58.758 america great again um and and and to do that is is gonna make he's gonna 82 00:04:59.278 --> 00:05:00.899 need to go into some serious debt. 83 00:05:01.560 --> 00:05:08.145 As we sit here, the US are actually trading at debt-to-GDP levels, 84 00:05:08.205 --> 00:05:12.049 and that's 2023, of 122%. 85 00:05:12.509 --> 00:05:19.034 Now, the last time he became president, let's call it 2015, 86 00:05:19.855 --> 00:05:24.559 it was still trading similar to the UK levels, you know, 99.8%. 87 00:05:25.840 --> 00:05:28.202 You need to ask yourself the question, what? 88 00:05:28.646 --> 00:05:34.468 What kind of ammunition do Trump have this time around to really do what he says he's 89 00:05:34.468 --> 00:05:36.468 going to do? 90 00:05:37.089 --> 00:05:38.610 So, yeah, to do that, 91 00:05:38.610 --> 00:05:45.253 he will most probably need to build a bigger debt to equity ratio or 92 00:05:45.273 --> 00:05:48.054 debt to GDP ratio. 93 00:05:48.814 --> 00:05:53.176 And ultimately, I think it's just, it'll end bad. 94 00:05:53.236 --> 00:05:56.658 But like I said, this has now just been announced. 95 00:05:56.938 --> 00:06:00.688 And We'll hear in the next few days, you know, 96 00:06:01.288 --> 00:06:04.330 more of what is he going to start off first. 97 00:06:04.711 --> 00:06:06.512 Because there's been so many things. 98 00:06:06.532 --> 00:06:08.153 I mean, he's going to stop the war. 99 00:06:08.253 --> 00:06:10.995 I mean, that we know he said many times. 100 00:06:11.275 --> 00:06:14.057 Okay, let me just write these things down because I've got so many things. 101 00:06:14.277 --> 00:06:15.938 Okay, the wars will stop. 102 00:06:15.958 --> 00:06:19.761 And he said he'll stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. 103 00:06:19.901 --> 00:06:22.883 Okay, then he'll stop the war in the Middle East. 104 00:06:23.503 --> 00:06:26.826 The other things he said is there'll be a mass deportation. 105 00:06:27.226 --> 00:06:31.649 like the world has never seen, of illegal immigrants. 106 00:06:31.649 --> 00:06:36.172 So there'll be 15, 20 million people immediately kicked out of the United 107 00:06:36.172 --> 00:06:38.172 States. 108 00:06:38.172 --> 00:06:40.172 Well, who's going to fill their jobs? 109 00:06:40.172 --> 00:06:42.172 Because they're there working. 110 00:06:42.172 --> 00:06:43.778 And I'm sorry, but that is the most outlandish statement. 111 00:06:43.798 --> 00:06:46.540 So we've got the mass expulsions. 112 00:06:46.800 --> 00:06:48.401 We've got inflation coming down. 113 00:06:48.481 --> 00:06:49.882 We've already debunked that. 114 00:06:50.302 --> 00:06:52.064 So the inflation rate comes down. 115 00:06:52.664 --> 00:06:58.300 We've got, he said on several occasions, He will bring energy prices down 116 00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:01.541 50% in the first year. 117 00:07:02.222 --> 00:07:04.563 How are you going to bring down energy prices 50%? 118 00:07:05.003 --> 00:07:10.246 And don't give me that fracking argument, Donny J, because it's just not true. 119 00:07:10.767 --> 00:07:13.568 You can't bring energy prices down 50% 120 00:07:13.908 --> 00:07:20.112 unless you close the international futures markets or something like that and just 121 00:07:20.112 --> 00:07:22.112 use what you've got internally. 122 00:07:22.112 --> 00:07:24.112 I just don't understand it. 123 00:07:24.112 --> 00:07:26.112 What else did he say? 124 00:07:26.112 --> 00:07:27.440 And tariffs, of course. 125 00:07:28.201 --> 00:07:31.423 China is going to be hit with 60% tariffs. 126 00:07:32.364 --> 00:07:33.324 It's going to be huge. 127 00:07:34.986 --> 00:07:36.627 25% across the board. 128 00:07:37.027 --> 00:07:42.411 And Mexico, I don't know, companies like John Deere, for example, 129 00:07:42.651 --> 00:07:48.355 who've set up a plant in Mexico, if they don't dismantle the plant and suddenly put 130 00:07:48.355 --> 00:07:50.355 it back in America, 131 00:07:50.355 --> 00:07:51.838 the goods that they make in Mexico and re... 132 00:07:52.418 --> 00:07:59.200 import or import or export rather what i'm talking about to the united states 133 00:07:59.200 --> 00:08:01.200 there'll be a 200 tariff on those 134 00:08:01.200 --> 00:08:06.242 because the plant is in mexico this is total madness also he'll get rid of nafta 135 00:08:06.242 --> 00:08:08.242 the north american 136 00:08:08.242 --> 00:08:12.924 free trade association because mexico and canada have got an unfair advantage on the 137 00:08:12.924 --> 00:08:14.924 united states 138 00:08:14.924 --> 00:08:19.366 he'll get he wants to leave nato or he won't pay for nato he's got a hell of a 139 00:08:19.366 --> 00:08:21.366 shopping list 140 00:08:21.366 --> 00:08:27.340 yeah he's got a big shopping list i mean uh his christmas list is getting longer 141 00:08:27.340 --> 00:08:29.340 and longer um but i mean i just want him 142 00:08:29.340 --> 00:08:34.246 to see and like i said i mean a few things you just mentioned forget about night air 143 00:08:34.246 --> 00:08:36.246 but all these tariffs is 144 00:08:36.246 --> 00:08:36.387 is paying to hike i 145 00:08:36.387 --> 00:08:43.113 i want to see him do this you know without and at the same time actually also you 146 00:08:43.113 --> 00:08:43.573 know 147 00:08:43.573 --> 00:08:49.038 bring inflation down i mean it's just going to be it's going to be fantastic to 148 00:08:49.038 --> 00:08:49.498 see 149 00:08:49.498 --> 00:08:50.859 It's going to be great. 150 00:08:50.899 --> 00:08:55.642 I would say, I mean, if you phone me up now, I would say, listen, have a nice 151 00:08:55.642 --> 00:08:55.761 time. 152 00:08:55.942 --> 00:08:57.603 Look forward to Christmas with your family. 153 00:08:57.763 --> 00:09:03.466 You don't have any friends, but with your family and get ready for January, because 154 00:09:03.466 --> 00:09:05.466 then all these promises you've made, 155 00:09:05.466 --> 00:09:10.510 if you don't fulfill those promises, then the people that voted for you will turn on 156 00:09:10.510 --> 00:09:12.510 you very, very quickly. 157 00:09:12.510 --> 00:09:14.510 You've seen the people that vote for him. 158 00:09:14.510 --> 00:09:15.873 There's been some beauties on the TV that I've watched. 159 00:09:16.253 --> 00:09:17.774 Not all of them are, you know. 160 00:09:18.658 --> 00:09:24.443 Well, Trump, I would say that Elon Musk, maybe, I don't know, 161 00:09:24.583 --> 00:09:26.745 that might be not so beauty. 162 00:09:27.946 --> 00:09:31.688 What do you make of Elon Musk, just as an aside, because he seems very awkward. 163 00:09:32.829 --> 00:09:34.771 I didn't realize he had 12 children. 164 00:09:35.652 --> 00:09:36.352 Did you know that? 165 00:09:37.693 --> 00:09:38.574 Well, that he knows of. 166 00:09:39.486 --> 00:09:46.211 Well, yeah, but I mean, obviously money plays a part here in order to get him to, 167 00:09:46.211 --> 00:09:48.211 you know, 168 00:09:48.211 --> 00:09:48.753 I won't be crude, but he's got 12 dreams. 169 00:09:48.853 --> 00:09:52.756 But when he comes on stage and he's always being interviewed, 170 00:09:52.776 --> 00:09:59.201 he's got this funny sort of twitch and this body language and he looks very, very 171 00:09:59.201 --> 00:10:01.201 awkward around human beings. 172 00:10:01.201 --> 00:10:01.478 Yeah, it does. 173 00:10:01.618 --> 00:10:04.881 I mean, I get the same feeling. 174 00:10:04.881 --> 00:10:06.982 I remember back in the days when 175 00:10:07.683 --> 00:10:14.327 Windows 95 launched and they had Bill Gates and all his 176 00:10:15.528 --> 00:10:18.050 – back then, his gang, the Kool and the Gang. 177 00:10:19.411 --> 00:10:24.975 I remember that same interview and dance they did with the launch. 178 00:10:25.595 --> 00:10:29.397 I get that same awkwardness now with with looking at Elon Musk. 179 00:10:29.397 --> 00:10:31.238 But this is an important thing. 180 00:10:31.238 --> 00:10:35.639 I mean, Tesla today, I think at one stage, over 16% up. 181 00:10:35.639 --> 00:10:39.220 I think currently as we sit here, I'm going to quickly have a look. 182 00:10:39.540 --> 00:10:43.562 15.1% up today. 183 00:10:44.422 --> 00:10:49.603 This is crazy to think about it because, I mean, what does Mr. 184 00:10:49.683 --> 00:10:50.664 Marker tell us? 185 00:10:51.784 --> 00:10:55.245 Are they telling us that Trump will now look after? 186 00:10:56.085 --> 00:10:57.926 Elon Musk and his company, Terry Sluss. 187 00:10:57.926 --> 00:10:58.846 Of course, that's the deal. 188 00:10:59.006 --> 00:11:01.027 Of course, it's the deal. 189 00:11:01.027 --> 00:11:01.727 Okay. 190 00:11:01.888 --> 00:11:07.090 But that's going to be difficult because, remember, they're big pals now. 191 00:11:07.250 --> 00:11:09.171 I mean, they're buddies for life. 192 00:11:09.831 --> 00:11:10.531 But remember, 193 00:11:11.131 --> 00:11:16.894 Elon Musk has extensive business interest in China. 194 00:11:18.955 --> 00:11:20.375 This could be an interesting one. 195 00:11:20.715 --> 00:11:26.899 You know, will Elon say, well, buddy, I'll… I mean, I've helped you now. 196 00:11:27.299 --> 00:11:32.243 I hear what you say about these tariffs and really going all out on China. 197 00:11:32.864 --> 00:11:36.326 But I mean, you know that, you know, 198 00:11:36.326 --> 00:11:43.232 I will get hurt just as badly if you really hit all these tariffs that you 199 00:11:43.232 --> 00:11:43.392 actually say 200 00:11:43.392 --> 00:11:43.972 you're going to be doing. 201 00:11:45.174 --> 00:11:49.157 And don't forget Russia as well, because according to the New York Times, 202 00:11:49.577 --> 00:11:54.121 Elon Musk has been talking to Putin and Putin phoned him up when, gosh, there was 203 00:11:54.121 --> 00:11:54.220 something. 204 00:11:54.381 --> 00:11:55.081 that he wanted. 205 00:11:55.241 --> 00:11:56.962 But anyway, he's doing things. 206 00:11:57.562 --> 00:11:58.262 Oh, that was it. 207 00:11:58.262 --> 00:12:05.045 It was Taiwan. When Taiwan had a typhoon and knocked out all the communications, 208 00:12:05.045 --> 00:12:07.045 Putin apparently spoke to him and said, 209 00:12:07.045 --> 00:12:12.168 don't put Starlink into Taiwan because I want to help out President Xi and 210 00:12:12.168 --> 00:12:14.168 President Xi doesn't like Taiwan. 211 00:12:14.168 --> 00:12:17.090 It's a very, very complicated web of intrigue that has been spun by Elon Musk. 212 00:12:17.490 --> 00:12:20.772 And he may be getting in over his head at some point in the future. 213 00:12:22.412 --> 00:12:23.112 Yeah. 214 00:12:24.473 --> 00:12:26.694 Again, I think it's going to be so many things. 215 00:12:26.714 --> 00:12:27.414 I mean, 216 00:12:29.034 --> 00:12:34.236 I got myself halfway through the Joe Rogan interview with 217 00:12:34.916 --> 00:12:36.516 Trump. I couldn't watch it. 218 00:12:37.517 --> 00:12:40.878 I did an hour and a half and I just couldn't do it anymore. 219 00:12:41.958 --> 00:12:46.639 But, I mean, the amount of promises that he's made. 220 00:12:46.759 --> 00:12:49.320 I mean, what do you call it? 221 00:12:49.620 --> 00:12:52.361 Unemployment will go to the lowest levels. 222 00:12:52.701 --> 00:12:54.382 the US has ever seen. 223 00:12:55.602 --> 00:12:56.903 Like no one's ever seen before. 224 00:12:56.963 --> 00:12:57.883 That's his phrase. 225 00:12:57.923 --> 00:13:01.385 Yeah, it'll be the greatest economy the world has ever seen. 226 00:13:01.625 --> 00:13:02.325 It's this and that. 227 00:13:02.885 --> 00:13:05.826 And he throws these comments away and people say, oh yeah, that makes sense. 228 00:13:05.846 --> 00:13:06.546 Yeah, okay. 229 00:13:06.747 --> 00:13:07.447 We believe you. 230 00:13:08.327 --> 00:13:09.888 Based on fantasy, not fact. 231 00:13:10.508 --> 00:13:14.030 Anyway, let's have a look at something more important and probably close to your 232 00:13:14.030 --> 00:13:14.329 heart. 233 00:13:14.990 --> 00:13:17.491 The commodities getting slaughtered. 234 00:13:17.671 --> 00:13:22.113 Resources stocks on the JSC tumbling, falling out of bed, Skulk. 235 00:13:23.489 --> 00:13:27.152 Yeah, I mean, we'll chat about the resource sector. 236 00:13:28.112 --> 00:13:29.954 Let's just get the elephant out of the room. 237 00:13:30.214 --> 00:13:31.034 I'm in gold. 238 00:13:31.895 --> 00:13:33.997 Gold, gold is making me old. 239 00:13:35.458 --> 00:13:37.659 Yeah, it's one of those days. 240 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:44.564 I mean, like I said earlier this week, I've got no doubt that if Trump succeeds, 241 00:13:44.564 --> 00:13:46.564 which he now has done, 242 00:13:46.564 --> 00:13:50.688 that would be, let's call it a short term, let's call it a breather for gold. 243 00:13:50.889 --> 00:13:51.589 Because. 244 00:13:51.749 --> 00:13:55.250 Naturally, we've seen that the currency will improve. 245 00:13:57.131 --> 00:14:00.531 He said he's going to stop the wars immediately. 246 00:14:01.012 --> 00:14:07.493 I mean, naturally, that will take away all geopolitical unrest, like immediately, if 247 00:14:07.493 --> 00:14:09.493 he does that. 248 00:14:09.493 --> 00:14:14.655 So if all the things happen or flourish, which he said he'll be doing, 249 00:14:15.255 --> 00:14:20.677 naturally, the gold price will have the effect that we've seen today. 250 00:14:20.717 --> 00:14:21.417 But... 251 00:14:21.417 --> 00:14:25.981 As I mentioned, people tend to forget that for Trump to do this, 252 00:14:26.341 --> 00:14:28.803 he will need to take on more debt. 253 00:14:29.344 --> 00:14:32.687 And more debt just means, oh boy, gold still looks good. 254 00:14:32.727 --> 00:14:34.788 And here's an interesting factoid. 255 00:14:35.589 --> 00:14:40.433 When you look at Trump's first term, that was that period, 256 00:14:40.433 --> 00:14:46.779 I think 2016 to 2020. 257 00:14:46.779 --> 00:14:49.481 Over that four-year period, gold rose. 258 00:14:53.146 --> 00:14:57.750 Effectively, $1,200 per ounce to $2,000 on its first. 259 00:14:58.491 --> 00:15:00.552 That's what's annualized 14%. 260 00:15:03.475 --> 00:15:08.619 If it's second verse, same as the first, we could very much see the gold price at 261 00:15:08.619 --> 00:15:10.619 anything between $4,000 and $5,000. 262 00:15:10.619 --> 00:15:11.462 Not today, though. 263 00:15:12.543 --> 00:15:13.243 Not today. 264 00:15:13.323 --> 00:15:14.023 Not today. 265 00:15:14.023 --> 00:15:19.388 But I'm just saying, listeners out there, I'm not just touching on gold, 266 00:15:19.428 --> 00:15:21.030 but you can add into the mix. 267 00:15:21.510 --> 00:15:24.972 You can add in PGMs because PGMs got slaughtered as well. 268 00:15:25.393 --> 00:15:30.636 Oil, like you mentioned, oil, he just, his comment was, we've got more gold, 269 00:15:31.017 --> 00:15:37.021 we've got more liquid gold, referring to oil, we've got more liquid gold than 270 00:15:37.401 --> 00:15:39.722 Russia and Iran has combined. 271 00:15:40.223 --> 00:15:41.584 No, he threw in Saudi Arabia. 272 00:15:41.864 --> 00:15:47.127 He says we've got more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, which, of course, again, is 273 00:15:47.127 --> 00:15:49.127 pure fiction. 274 00:15:49.127 --> 00:15:51.127 Nonsense. 275 00:15:51.127 --> 00:15:53.127 Absolute nonsense. 276 00:15:53.127 --> 00:15:54.517 So, yeah, I mean, you can add some of these resources. 277 00:15:55.458 --> 00:16:01.863 I don't think, I mean, yes, I mean, we know that AGOA is definitely now under big 278 00:16:01.863 --> 00:16:01.962 threat. 279 00:16:02.143 --> 00:16:04.065 And that's the South African arrangement. 280 00:16:04.065 --> 00:16:07.448 I mean, we know that that's going to be an interesting one. 281 00:16:08.468 --> 00:16:11.010 But I think it's been under threat. 282 00:16:11.071 --> 00:16:17.556 I think even Biden tried to pull it through, you know, one of his last hurrahs 283 00:16:17.556 --> 00:16:19.556 before he went to bed. 284 00:16:19.758 --> 00:16:20.458 It's just. 285 00:16:20.978 --> 00:16:24.260 I think just listeners out there, maybe just switch off your screens. 286 00:16:24.721 --> 00:16:29.863 Keep your TVs on because I think it's going to be fun listening to some of his 287 00:16:29.863 --> 00:16:31.863 intro speeches. 288 00:16:31.863 --> 00:16:36.627 I want to see if his first speech as president is going to be a rerun of his 289 00:16:36.647 --> 00:16:38.428 2016 speech. 290 00:16:40.489 --> 00:16:41.790 Is he actually going to write a new one? 291 00:16:42.470 --> 00:16:43.191 And what is he going to say? 292 00:16:43.711 --> 00:16:48.994 But I think besides that, I would really not be reading too much. 293 00:16:50.054 --> 00:16:52.256 into the market movement that we've seen today. 294 00:16:52.256 --> 00:16:55.339 In actual fact, be very careful following this. 295 00:16:56.740 --> 00:17:02.665 Because as I mentioned, you know, some of the more bullish banks out there, aka 296 00:17:02.665 --> 00:17:04.665 Goldman Sachs, even they, 297 00:17:04.665 --> 00:17:08.089 really, really bullish, still see the S&P 500, for instance, 298 00:17:08.409 --> 00:17:14.114 trading at lower levels than, well, it's currently trading. 299 00:17:14.634 --> 00:17:15.334 Yes. 300 00:17:15.334 --> 00:17:15.815 Well, we'll see. 301 00:17:16.316 --> 00:17:18.838 But as I said, these analysts are very... 302 00:17:19.198 --> 00:17:20.838 backward looking rather than forward looking. 303 00:17:21.139 --> 00:17:25.660 The thing goes to 5,900, the S&P, and they said it's going to be 5,850 next year. 304 00:17:25.900 --> 00:17:30.041 But the narrative is still fairly bullish under a Trump administration. 305 00:17:30.501 --> 00:17:31.921 Let's have a look at some numbers, Scott. 306 00:17:32.262 --> 00:17:35.462 Dollar round is 1765. 307 00:17:35.462 --> 00:17:37.943 British pound against the round is 2374. 308 00:17:37.943 --> 00:17:42.004 And the euro round is 1893 with the euro dollar 107.25. 309 00:17:42.404 --> 00:17:48.606 So the euro has, what is that, about a third of a percent move down for the euro, 310 00:17:48.606 --> 00:17:50.606 stronger for the US dollar. 311 00:17:50.606 --> 00:17:52.669 which has scuppered some of the metals that you so love. 312 00:17:53.129 --> 00:17:54.970 British Pound is 128.80. 313 00:17:55.511 --> 00:17:58.573 Let's have a look at that gold price now, because it was nearly 2,900. 314 00:17:58.573 --> 00:18:05.537 It might have even touched 2,900 last week, but is now 2,674, which is down 315 00:18:05.537 --> 00:18:07.537 2.4%. 316 00:18:07.537 --> 00:18:07.539 Was worse off than that. 317 00:18:07.979 --> 00:18:12.982 The platinum price is down 1.5%, or $15 an ounce, to 9.86. 318 00:18:13.603 --> 00:18:17.485 And palladium, down $37 an ounce, or 3.5%. 319 00:18:17.505 --> 00:18:18.206 That's the worst off. 320 00:18:18.426 --> 00:18:19.126 but still above $1,000, $1,040. 321 00:18:21.468 --> 00:18:22.909 The oil price has been interesting. 322 00:18:22.909 --> 00:18:28.733 It was down about 3% at one stage earlier today, but has recovered to only being 323 00:18:28.733 --> 00:18:30.733 down a third, 324 00:18:30.733 --> 00:18:32.733 actually 0.2% now at $75.36. 325 00:18:32.733 --> 00:18:34.733 That's Brent. 326 00:18:34.733 --> 00:18:39.481 And West Texas is exactly flat at $71.98 per barrel. 327 00:18:39.981 --> 00:18:41.142 Other things going on there. 328 00:18:41.742 --> 00:18:44.544 Silver down 4%, copper down 4.7%. 329 00:18:44.564 --> 00:18:45.264 That's a big move. 330 00:18:45.825 --> 00:18:46.525 Yeah, so... 331 00:18:46.806 --> 00:18:49.188 It's been a mixed day, but generally a red day. 332 00:18:49.888 --> 00:18:50.588 What else? 333 00:18:50.588 --> 00:18:53.731 The S&P 500 futures, all-time record highs this morning. 334 00:18:54.171 --> 00:18:55.172 They've come off a little bit. 335 00:18:55.232 --> 00:18:56.753 They were up 2.5% nearly. 336 00:18:57.233 --> 00:19:04.178 Now only up, well, I say only, only up around about 2%, 59, 30, whatever the 337 00:19:04.178 --> 00:19:04.317 price is. 338 00:19:04.317 --> 00:19:06.059 It's flicking all over the screen today. 339 00:19:06.459 --> 00:19:13.364 US 10-year Treasury bond yield, this is quite a big one, 4.45%, which is a rise in 340 00:19:13.364 --> 00:19:15.364 yield of 16 basis points, 341 00:19:15.364 --> 00:19:17.364 around about 4%. 342 00:19:17.364 --> 00:19:19.364 And the SA. 343 00:19:19.364 --> 00:19:21.091 10 year following its american peer and is 344 00:19:21.831 --> 00:19:28.773 960 which is um according to my screen 28 basis points higher maybe that sounds a 345 00:19:28.773 --> 00:19:30.773 bit exaggerated 346 00:19:30.773 --> 00:19:35.295 but anyway you get the picture bond yields rising so bond markets falling equity's 347 00:19:35.295 --> 00:19:37.295 doing very well so it's very 348 00:19:37.295 --> 00:19:41.897 interesting and whether this trend can continue i don't know bitcoin i think is 349 00:19:41.897 --> 00:19:43.897 also at record highs i think trump's got something to do with 350 00:19:43.897 --> 00:19:47.660 crypto hasn't he now so him in the white house people love that 6.6% up for 351 00:19:47.660 --> 00:19:47.799 Bitcoin, 352 00:19:47.799 --> 00:19:50.463 74,200 we'll call it. 353 00:19:51.003 --> 00:19:53.005 So lots of stuff going on, Skulk. 354 00:19:54.464 --> 00:20:01.148 If you looked at the S&P and then looked at the all share, you'd probably say, 355 00:20:01.148 --> 00:20:03.148 well, the all share is going to be up one and a half, two percent, given that. 356 00:20:03.148 --> 00:20:05.148 But not a bit of it. 357 00:20:05.148 --> 00:20:06.931 The resources stocks thwarting the ambitions of the local market. 358 00:20:08.051 --> 00:20:10.953 Yeah, yeah, you're 100 percent right. 359 00:20:10.993 --> 00:20:13.574 But usually when you see this, 360 00:20:13.614 --> 00:20:18.857 because the JSE is so rand hedged, I mean, 361 00:20:20.078 --> 00:20:23.420 more than 60 percent of its earnings are actually. 362 00:20:24.420 --> 00:20:31.382 it burned in foreign currency so when you see a day like today where the where the 363 00:20:31.382 --> 00:20:33.382 ran pretty much lost 364 00:20:33.382 --> 00:20:38.384 two percent of its value uh you tend to think well that that should in theory be 365 00:20:38.384 --> 00:20:40.384 positive for for for what 366 00:20:40.384 --> 00:20:40.425 the market but hell no i 367 00:20:40.505 --> 00:20:47.067 mean uh so so when you look at the i mean i know we're gonna chat about the actual 368 00:20:47.067 --> 00:20:49.067 market movement but when you look at 369 00:20:49.067 --> 00:20:54.177 a jse all share dropping 1.5 the top 40 which is Even more rent hedged, 370 00:20:54.597 --> 00:20:56.118 1.6% down. 371 00:20:56.498 --> 00:21:02.680 That is pretty much, you know, if you add, let's call it a close to two, I'm just 372 00:21:02.680 --> 00:21:04.680 going to do very simple math, 373 00:21:04.680 --> 00:21:04.881 to add a 2% drop in the currency. 374 00:21:05.201 --> 00:21:10.684 In dollar terms, that's pretty much 3.5% to 3.6% drop in our market today. 375 00:21:10.764 --> 00:21:16.926 Well, as you just mentioned, I mean, the S&P 500, that's up 2%. 376 00:21:17.766 --> 00:21:19.427 Just look at the Dow Jones. 377 00:21:19.427 --> 00:21:21.348 Dow Jones, 3.1%. 378 00:21:21.488 --> 00:21:28.271 percent positive today and not not nasdaq also up over two percent so we lost in in 379 00:21:28.271 --> 00:21:28.451 real 380 00:21:28.451 --> 00:21:35.234 terms or let's call it comparative terms against the years anything between five 381 00:21:35.234 --> 00:21:37.234 and six percent today in dollar terms so 382 00:21:37.234 --> 00:21:40.736 it's massive massive massive and and you need to you know ask yourself the question 383 00:21:40.736 --> 00:21:42.736 what what 384 00:21:42.736 --> 00:21:43.377 happened to south africa well nothing happened to south africa 385 00:21:43.878 --> 00:21:49.460 it's just you know trump isn't necessarily that's big on on you know 386 00:21:49.740 --> 00:21:56.563 China and and all its friends there's gonna be so much volatility in the next 387 00:21:56.563 --> 00:21:58.563 three months six months four 388 00:21:58.563 --> 00:22:03.146 years It's gonna be you're gonna have to be on your toes Skunk, but I know that you 389 00:22:03.146 --> 00:22:05.146 will cope now. 390 00:22:05.146 --> 00:22:07.928 Here's some individual stocks I'll get rid of the the rats and mice at the top of the 391 00:22:07.928 --> 00:22:07.947 table here 392 00:22:08.288 --> 00:22:11.649 Alpha min up three point three percent and no disrespect to any of these companies 393 00:22:12.009 --> 00:22:18.412 Karoo up three point three percent Renet a three percent winner British American 394 00:22:18.412 --> 00:22:20.412 tobacco two and three quarters higher 395 00:22:20.412 --> 00:22:25.077 and avi up nearly two percent now this is where it gets horribly interesting sebanya 396 00:22:25.077 --> 00:22:27.077 down nearly nine percent 397 00:22:27.077 --> 00:22:32.522 in plats down 7.2 northern platinum down 6.7 and anglo-american platinum down six 398 00:22:32.522 --> 00:22:34.522 percent 399 00:22:34.522 --> 00:22:38.906 i thought a while ago speaking to somebody who's a resources bull and this the cycle 400 00:22:38.926 --> 00:22:40.768 was turning and everything that we'd seen 401 00:22:40.788 --> 00:22:46.912 the bottom but it seems to me there may be another leg down before the thing starts 402 00:22:46.912 --> 00:22:48.912 to consolidate 403 00:22:48.912 --> 00:22:49.529 What do you think, Skalk, especially the PGMs? 404 00:22:50.650 --> 00:22:52.530 Yeah, I mean, you just mentioned it. 405 00:22:52.950 --> 00:22:54.611 The worst performers today, all of them. 406 00:22:54.951 --> 00:22:57.512 All of them, if they were digging, they were losing. 407 00:22:57.613 --> 00:22:59.573 I mean, that's it, just bottom line. 408 00:23:00.114 --> 00:23:03.615 If it was platinum, palladium, gold, it doesn't matter. 409 00:23:03.895 --> 00:23:04.595 They lost. 410 00:23:05.536 --> 00:23:12.299 But you need to ask yourself the question, a little bit less than a month, 411 00:23:12.379 --> 00:23:14.740 two months ago, what changed? 412 00:23:15.068 --> 00:23:20.429 You know, when this whole commodity cycle changed, where we had the change in the 413 00:23:20.429 --> 00:23:22.429 interest rate cycle, 414 00:23:22.429 --> 00:23:25.851 followed by China that said, well, we're going to be stimulating a little bit. 415 00:23:27.251 --> 00:23:31.332 And that suddenly put a whole new perspective on this market. 416 00:23:33.473 --> 00:23:35.333 I don't think that has changed at all. 417 00:23:36.974 --> 00:23:40.235 We are still a commodity producing country. 418 00:23:40.755 --> 00:23:44.596 Commodities that, you know, Trump with. 419 00:23:44.916 --> 00:23:49.538 One of the things he also said is he's going to be infrastructure focused. 420 00:23:49.618 --> 00:23:54.460 He's going to – well, I don't know if it's infrastructure or building walls, 421 00:23:54.520 --> 00:23:58.882 but he's going to really be needing some of these commodities we are producing. 422 00:23:59.362 --> 00:24:02.603 And I still think that that hasn't changed. 423 00:24:02.743 --> 00:24:09.106 And I think just to top it off, there was a very, very nice article that I read on 424 00:24:09.526 --> 00:24:10.846 – I think it was Zero Hedge. 425 00:24:11.867 --> 00:24:13.007 I don't have it in front of me now. 426 00:24:14.800 --> 00:24:20.325 But where this writer actually – oh, sorry, it was on Tech Central. 427 00:24:20.406 --> 00:24:22.347 Sorry, that was on Tech Central. 428 00:24:23.589 --> 00:24:28.013 The writer actually very, very solidly argued that 429 00:24:28.934 --> 00:24:31.817 – and here I'm going to quote the heading of the article. 430 00:24:32.257 --> 00:24:34.720 China is better prepared for Trump 2.0. 431 00:24:35.944 --> 00:24:38.666 They were sort of unprepared for him last time around. 432 00:24:38.706 --> 00:24:40.587 But here, what's the other saying? 433 00:24:40.787 --> 00:24:41.888 Fool me once, shame on me. 434 00:24:42.148 --> 00:24:43.669 Fool me twice, shame on you. 435 00:24:44.569 --> 00:24:45.850 Or shame the other way around. 436 00:24:45.890 --> 00:24:46.971 Shame on you and then shame on me. 437 00:24:47.651 --> 00:24:51.893 I do think that China is a little bit more prepared. 438 00:24:52.314 --> 00:24:59.138 And I wouldn't be surprised if we see or hear another sort of form of 439 00:24:59.218 --> 00:25:02.579 stimulus being announced from China very, very soon. 440 00:25:02.680 --> 00:25:08.698 So just… Just watch the space and be careful just reading one side. 441 00:25:08.718 --> 00:25:13.880 I think this is, like you mentioned, it's going to be very interesting, and I think 442 00:25:13.880 --> 00:25:15.880 volatility is going to be the order of the day. 443 00:25:15.880 --> 00:25:17.880 Yes, it is. 444 00:25:17.880 --> 00:25:18.182 You're going to be sending out letters to your clients. 445 00:25:18.202 --> 00:25:21.744 You're going to be preparing your sort of summary of the year. 446 00:25:22.084 --> 00:25:24.365 But I wouldn't start writing it too soon, Skulk. 447 00:25:25.605 --> 00:25:29.907 I would be waiting until maybe mid-December or something, because 448 00:25:29.907 --> 00:25:31.907 otherwise you'll lose people. 449 00:25:31.907 --> 00:25:32.048 It'll drop on the doormat. 450 00:25:32.428 --> 00:25:34.489 or be in their inbox and they won't look at it. 451 00:25:34.769 --> 00:25:38.331 But I think there's a few twists between now and year end, don't you? 452 00:25:39.432 --> 00:25:40.132 Yeah. 453 00:25:40.132 --> 00:25:40.913 Yeah, I do think. 454 00:25:40.973 --> 00:25:42.273 Do I know what it's going to be? 455 00:25:42.774 --> 00:25:43.854 No, not at all. 456 00:25:44.435 --> 00:25:50.818 But I think, you know, I just want markets to sort of just calm down now and, you 457 00:25:50.818 --> 00:25:51.278 know, 458 00:25:51.278 --> 00:25:53.239 work on real valuations. 459 00:25:53.439 --> 00:25:54.980 Because as we said here, the U.S. 460 00:25:55.400 --> 00:25:56.141 are elevated. 461 00:25:56.401 --> 00:25:58.722 Their markets are elevated. 462 00:25:59.963 --> 00:26:05.129 If you look at the levels they're actually trading at, And I'm talking about forward 463 00:26:05.129 --> 00:26:07.129 price-earning ratio, price-earning ratio, 464 00:26:07.129 --> 00:26:11.611 trading at levels that we haven't seen for two, three years prior to the, let's call 465 00:26:11.611 --> 00:26:12.111 it, 466 00:26:12.111 --> 00:26:13.511 2022 crash. 467 00:26:13.831 --> 00:26:18.973 And also before that, levels we haven't seen since the 2008 crash. 468 00:26:19.153 --> 00:26:20.933 Be very, very careful. 469 00:26:21.634 --> 00:26:25.875 I know that Trump is going to bring something different now. 470 00:26:26.035 --> 00:26:28.295 I mean, I'm not going to argue that fact. 471 00:26:28.295 --> 00:26:30.296 He's got a lot of plans. 472 00:26:30.712 --> 00:26:36.874 but he needs to implement them with not as much ammunition as he had back in 473 00:26:36.874 --> 00:26:39.214 2016. 474 00:26:39.214 --> 00:26:45.816 okay good give us the closing jsc indices if you would skulk so the jse today as i 475 00:26:45.816 --> 00:26:47.816 mentioned closed down 476 00:26:47.816 --> 00:26:51.658 1.52 percent at 85 330 points the top 40 77 477 00:26:51.698 --> 00:26:58.379 232 points also down 1.61 percent the baddie of the day is 478 00:26:58.620 --> 00:27:02.402 four percent down 4% down for resource sector. 479 00:27:03.282 --> 00:27:08.647 Even industrials, I mean, couldn't be helped by the likes of British American 480 00:27:08.647 --> 00:27:10.647 Tobacco, Richmont. 481 00:27:10.647 --> 00:27:11.589 I mean, both these companies doing fairly well. 482 00:27:11.929 --> 00:27:14.872 British American Tobacco Company, as you mentioned, 3% up for today. 483 00:27:15.472 --> 00:27:17.434 Richmont up 1.22%. 484 00:27:17.994 --> 00:27:19.255 This is rant edges. 485 00:27:19.936 --> 00:27:20.737 Couldn't help them. 486 00:27:20.957 --> 00:27:24.159 They were still down 0.86%. 487 00:27:24.239 --> 00:27:26.281 Naturally, Naspas and Process played their part. 488 00:27:26.782 --> 00:27:29.804 And then financials closed down 98%. 489 00:27:29.864 --> 00:27:36.368 basis points and property sector with this drop in the currency and also the pop in 490 00:27:36.848 --> 00:27:38.229 the long bond rate didn't help. 491 00:27:38.649 --> 00:27:40.910 So that is also down 0.74%. 492 00:27:40.910 --> 00:27:42.471 We look at the value traded for today. 493 00:27:43.651 --> 00:27:44.351 Not too bad. 494 00:27:44.412 --> 00:27:48.694 I mean, I wouldn't disregard this as just a low volume day, 495 00:27:48.694 --> 00:27:51.716 22.6 billion traded today. 496 00:27:51.776 --> 00:27:55.438 So fairly strongish volume coming through as well. 497 00:27:55.918 --> 00:27:56.618 Very good. 498 00:27:56.718 --> 00:27:59.300 Skulk, thank you very much for your analysis on this extraordinary day. 499 00:27:59.740 --> 00:28:05.224 Skullclaw is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was 500 00:28:05.224 --> 00:28:07.224 the 5 o'clock shadow. 501 00:28:07.224 --> 00:28:12.969 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 502 00:28:12.969 --> 00:28:14.969 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 503 00:28:14.969 --> 00:28:16.711 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 504 00:28:17.052 --> 00:28:21.695 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 505 00:28:22.155 --> 00:28:29.120 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 506 00:28:29.120 --> 00:28:31.120 entity other than the speaker or the author. 507 00:28:31.120 --> 00:28:34.586 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 508 00:28:34.586 --> 00:28:34.685 change, 509 00:28:34.866 --> 00:28:37.429 revision and rethinking at any time. 510 00:28:37.729 --> 00:28:40.152 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.