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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day.

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So as it's a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk
Lowe,

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who's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth
Old Oak in Cape Town.

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Skulk, we haven't spoken now for two weeks
and that's my fault.

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But I'll tell you one thing, I'm feeling
slightly uneasy about things.

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And it's the looming election because
there's undoubtedly going to be...

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extreme volatility surrounding that event
whether it lasts or not I don't know

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whether it's good or bad again I don't
know depends on the

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candidate and also wars wars are starting
to get on my nerves now

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I mean I sit there watching television and
think I'll go to I'll go to have a nice

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early night

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9 30 10 or something and then I start to
get agitated because I see all sorts of

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ghastly things going on

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soothe my fears please skulk you You came
to the wrong place, my friend.

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Okay, let's wallow together.

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So you share my sentiments, do you?

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I definitely, let's put it on the table.

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I'm not negative.

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I'm, like I say, carefully bullish.

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And when I look around, I see markets.

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Now, let's just forget about, you know, I
want to say today.

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Today is slightly down.

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Yesterday, a little bit more negative.

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But...

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When we look at the past, let's go to two
and a half months,

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things that pop up is things like new
all-time highs, 52-week highs,

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RAND being stable.

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I can go on and on positives locally as
well as abroad.

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So those things are, I would say,

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justifiable because we've now reached a
pivotal point where the interest rates are

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starting to drop.

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decline again, people are feeling more
upbeat.

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But I'm looking around and seeing the same
things that you're seeing.

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I'm seeing, you know,

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I think the biggest threat to this party
we're enjoying

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is, I still believe, inflation.

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And yes, you've mentioned war, but war to
me equals higher inflation.

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When I look at...

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Immediately when I hear China stimulating,
then

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I say that equals higher inflation.

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When I look at you talking about the U.S.

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in elections, but before that, we still
got things like port strikes.

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That's going to be, I don't know how long
that's going to take.

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I look at that and I see higher inflation.

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So I'm sort of sitting in a position where
I say, yeah.

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we're going to see lower interest rates,
and that's going to be good for growth

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assets like equities, also properties.

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But don't think this interest rate will
move in a straight line,

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because if all these things that you just
mentioned, and I mentioned,

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sort of escalate into something bigger, I
don't know,

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that might sort of put a stop at this
party for now,

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and might put...

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some of these central bankers in a
position where they say, wait a minute,

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we're not going to necessarily decline in
interest rates every second month, like

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everybody's thinking.

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We're just maybe going to I don't know
what we say in the rugby.

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I don't know.

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You don't watch rugby.

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It's touch, pause, and engage.

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I think it might be that type of thing.

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Touch, pause, and then they'll engage
again.

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You're likening the central bank behavior
to a scrum.

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Is that what you're saying here?

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Yeah, it will be a scrum for sure.

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It will be a scrum for sure.

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No, so I think I answered you a very, very
long-winded way.

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I think you're 100% right.

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The one thing I am expecting for the next
month, even two months, is definitely

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higher volatility.

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High volatility in equity markets, high
volatility in currencies for sure.

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Well, let's take the

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Ukraine-Russia war out of the equation
because it's not nice to say.

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I'm used to it now.

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I'm bored with it.

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But it's been a long time.

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And it's not having the impact that it did
when it was first unleashed on an

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unsuspecting world.

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As for the Middle East, not so ongoing,
and probably only in the early stages of

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its impact.

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But a couple of economic factors.

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Now, you often send some really, really
good and well thought out graphs on

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LinkedIn.

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And you sent one a couple of days ago to
do with leading economic indicator in the

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United States.

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And you said it's been falling now.

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for 30 straight months.

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What are the implications for that?

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And just explain it a bit if you would.

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So these, as the name implies, it's
leading indicators.

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So they take a few economic indicators and
they sort of combine it into one

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indicator.

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And naturally a graph that's moving upward
or, you know, improvement in this data,

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you know,

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is an improvement in the indicator.

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And the decline is naturally a weakened
environment.

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Now, very important, you know, we've seen,
you just mentioned it.

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30 months in a row.

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Soon we'll see if it's going to be 31.

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30 months in a row.

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The previous time we've seen this type of
trajectory, where we see a

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30-month-in-a-row drop in these leading
indicators, was the world financial

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crisis,

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which eventually ended up being the world
recession.

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And I don't want to call it another world
recession because...

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you know something happened you know a lot
of time people tell me oh there was you

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know it was a definite event that happened

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back then but that's that that's the thing
about these indicators and and about black

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swans you you you tend to look

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back let's

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call it 15 years ago 16 years ago and say
well it was clear as daylight man oh man i

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want to

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take everyone back to 2007 and explain to
them then that it was clear as daylight

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anyway

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Be that as it may, the economic
environment is definitely declining,

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but not to the extent where we're already
in a recession.

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Because remember,

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we went into 2024 and most investment
houses were forecasting at least a

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minor recession.

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That was most of them.

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I mean, some of them actually felt that
we're going to be in a deeper, let's call

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it a hard landing type of recession.

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Yeah, well, we're sitting on the 9th of
October.

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And nobody's really in a proper recession.

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So that gives some of these central
bankers an opportunity to not be too quick

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on the draw.

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Let's get inflation under control.

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Focus on the geopolitics because, I mean,
from an African point of view,

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we're still the S in BRICS.

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And, you know, there's already two BRICS
countries that's now.

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in full-blooded war with their neighbours.

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So I think we just need to stay calm now,
get these wars out of the way,

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and I think then 2025 and 2026 could be
very good.

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Okay.

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Now, you've mentioned two things.

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Inflation, which everyone says, oh, it's
under control, don't worry about it,

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interest rates are going to come down.

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It's almost as though they've said, I can
look forward to the last three months of

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2024, two and a half months now.

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and everything's going to be fine i can
enjoy my christmas break but you've

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sounded a warning there and you've also
talked

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about maybe some kind of uh recession now
if you put those two together that is

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stagflation

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oh yeah in other words stagnation in the
economies and inflation which is terrible

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and if i look at the crb index

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chart which i've just pulled up in front
of me on september the 10th of this year

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The CRB index,

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a basket of commodities heavily skewed
towards energy, i.e.

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crude oil, was down an index level of 315.

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It touched just below 350 just two days
ago.

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So 315 to 350, it's 35 points.

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It went up more than 10% in a very short
space of time.

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That's inflation.

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The CRB index is inflation or a good
component of it.

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So you've got your leading...

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economic indicators in the United States
coming down for close to three years.

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You've got inflation going up in a very
short space of time by 10% or more.

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So, yeah, maybe you've got a point there,
Scott.

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No, you've made me even more nervous.

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I told you.

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I told you.

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You came to the wrong place if you thought
I'm going to talk you down this ledge.

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No, it's you know, there's a graph that I
also now, this might be my favorite graph.

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And I know a lot of my colleagues always
laugh at me when I say this is

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This is your favorite graph because
eventually I end up showing them 45

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graphs,

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and I think most of them I refer to as my
favorite graph.

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But this might be my favorite graph
because it's one of those things that's

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just fun to watch.

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It doesn't really give you insight unless
you're really a firm believer that history

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always repeats itself.

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But you referred to the stagflation
period,

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which was pretty much that period between
1978 and 1983.

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Now, This is where, you know, for the
listeners out there, and I've got a graph.

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It's also on my Twitter feed and LinkedIn
feed.

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Maybe I should just share it again.

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But it's one of those graphs where we look
at inflation.

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And I'm not going to go into the
historics, what happened back then, what

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created the inflation.

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But in essence, very similar, we had
inflation that rocked the world,

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specifically the U.S.

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On that stage, the Fed rate was right
about the… let's call it 2% level,

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and they had to adjust this to combat
this, but they didn't go quick enough.

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And they eventually, as interest rates
actually did,

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had the effect, inflation started to
retrace, very similar graph.

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And then what we've seen, they were too
quick on the draw, really worried about

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unemployment rate,

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worried about the… going into a recession,
and they were very quick to reduce

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interest rates again.

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And then we had that second trance of
inflation.

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And it wasn't just interest rates.

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It was commodities.

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It was a few things.

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But in essence, everything just happened
too quickly, and we had that second trance

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of inflation.

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Very high inflation, went into a proper
recession, high unemployment rate, as

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Lindsay now referred to,

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stagflation.

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But the second trance… of that inflation
was way more aggressive,

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way higher than the first one.

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And they eventually ended up, they needed
to take the Fed, listen to this,

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from 2% originally to about 18% to rectify
this in the U.S.

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Yeah, that was crazy times.

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And the fact that the U.S.

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actually pulled through that time was just
mind-boggling.

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Now, here's my favorite part.

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Not that, not that.

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the story itself.

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For the past, let's call it two years,
I've been running the current inflation

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trajectory, and I'm talking about the US,

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on exactly the same graph of the late 70s,
early

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1980s. And they're running like a railroad
track.

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And they look like exactly the same graph.

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And it's just mind boggling.

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I thought I'll stop it eventually when
they actually uncouple, decouple.

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But they haven't done that yet.

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And if that graph is anything to go by,

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we should have an inflation that bottoms
out in the next two to three months, maybe

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four.

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And then we should see, you know,
somewhere in the next, let's call it two

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to three months, we should see inflation
start,

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you know, showing its teeth again.

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Now, you just mentioned it.

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I mean, I look around me and last night
somebody asked me, what a great.

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day, at least the Brent oil price is back
at $78. Man, it's beautiful.

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5% drop yesterday.

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I went like, yes, but remember,

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that Brent oil price a month ago was
trading below $70.

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So,

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that's already still 10% higher than what
it was trading a

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month ago.

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Look at your other commodities, some of
your...

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coppers coppers are way way higher already
so so yes i do agree with you you're going

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to have this stimulus um

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people were disappointed yesterday in in
china again not i don't know what that

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committee is called but

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they eventually thought that they're going
to bring out the bazooka as well and they

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00:13:18.390 --> 00:13:20.390
ah they just did some infrastructure
stimulus and they did some

239
00:13:20.390 --> 00:13:25.353
some um uh uh uh what do you call it um
fiscal stimulus but in essence not a big

240
00:13:25.353 --> 00:13:25.653
one

241
00:13:25.725 --> 00:13:32.689
and people were disappointed but if people
realize the more china is going to

242
00:13:32.689 --> 00:13:34.689
stimulate yes it's going to be good for
south africa in terms of

243
00:13:34.689 --> 00:13:39.833
commodity commodity producing but it's not
going to be good for inflation um and

244
00:13:39.833 --> 00:13:41.833
ultimately not going to be good for
interest rates

245
00:13:41.833 --> 00:13:47.597
okay we've got another couple of things as
well which i need to mention talking about

246
00:13:47.597 --> 00:13:49.597
recession or a stagnant economy

247
00:13:49.597 --> 00:13:53.741
germany germany the powerhouse of europe
no longer i can't get my page up for a

248
00:13:53.741 --> 00:13:55.741
moment because there's

249
00:13:55.741 --> 00:13:57.695
This is the Europe malaise that I'm going
to refer to now.

250
00:13:58.397 --> 00:14:01.025
Suddenly the internet's gone down, and I'm
in the Netherlands.

251
00:14:01.781 --> 00:14:06.065
But the German economy has slowed and is
slowing and going into recession.

252
00:14:06.085 --> 00:14:12.310
I think it actually might be technically
going into the second year of recession,

253
00:14:12.310 --> 00:14:14.310
which is bad for Europe.

254
00:14:14.310 --> 00:14:15.713
And Europe is a massive, massive trading
block, as we all know.

255
00:14:16.013 --> 00:14:17.394
And then we've got China as well.

256
00:14:17.894 --> 00:14:22.398
Now, what happened after the Golden Week
of China, which was their annual holiday,

257
00:14:23.179 --> 00:14:25.140
was to me very disturbing.

258
00:14:25.280 --> 00:14:30.805
I mean, we had this massive day to the
upside, a few days to the upside for

259
00:14:30.805 --> 00:14:32.805
China-linked stocks.

260
00:14:32.805 --> 00:14:37.991
and then suddenly when people came back
from holiday they thought yes let's buy

261
00:14:37.991 --> 00:14:39.991
now and then they suddenly said wait a
second there's no one backing up

262
00:14:39.991 --> 00:14:40.714
this buying and they sold i think the hang
saying was down

263
00:14:41.094 --> 00:14:47.340
10 yesterday wasn't it or monday oh yeah
yeah but it was it was pretty much up 25

264
00:14:47.340 --> 00:14:49.340
in

265
00:14:49.340 --> 00:14:54.227
september so yeah it's it's it's highly
volatile um and you're right i mean

266
00:14:54.647 --> 00:15:01.135
um that's that's What we refer to this,
let's call it volatility,

267
00:15:01.215 --> 00:15:03.556
because everyone expected

268
00:15:04.516 --> 00:15:10.098
China to do these type of stimulus late
last year, beginning this year.

269
00:15:10.779 --> 00:15:17.541
And so every month we discuss Chinese
economic data and refer to it as, wow,

270
00:15:17.621 --> 00:15:18.702
that was disappointing.

271
00:15:18.822 --> 00:15:20.102
Wow, that was disappointing.

272
00:15:20.442 --> 00:15:21.703
And they don't do the stimulus.

273
00:15:22.043 --> 00:15:26.565
Well, the U.S. announced their first
interest rate cut.

274
00:15:27.209 --> 00:15:30.431
And boom, there goes China and announced
that stimulus.

275
00:15:31.132 --> 00:15:33.473
Is it a coincidence?

276
00:15:33.493 --> 00:15:34.193
I don't know.

277
00:15:34.193 --> 00:15:40.577
I mean, it's just way too coincidental for
China to literally the same time the U.S.

278
00:15:40.997 --> 00:15:42.898
do the rate cut.

279
00:15:43.319 --> 00:15:48.081
They not only cut their rates themselves,
they're pumping a lot of money into the

280
00:15:48.081 --> 00:15:50.081
economy as stimulus.

281
00:15:50.081 --> 00:15:52.081
I mean, that was interesting.

282
00:15:52.081 --> 00:15:56.898
And, yeah, I think as we get these type of
news, good news will… drive this market,

283
00:15:56.898 --> 00:15:58.898
you know,

284
00:15:58.898 --> 00:16:00.898
when I said market to the Chinese market.

285
00:16:00.898 --> 00:16:03.383
And, you know, disappointing news will
have the effect that we've seen yesterday.

286
00:16:04.323 --> 00:16:06.705
I've got no doubt, no doubt that we can
see volatility.

287
00:16:07.565 --> 00:16:11.548
Yes, we've got, I think, US inflation
coming out tomorrow, Skalk.

288
00:16:11.568 --> 00:16:13.690
And that's a carefully watched number.

289
00:16:14.030 --> 00:16:18.153
People saying it's going to remain at just
over 3%, 3.2%.

290
00:16:18.173 --> 00:16:20.074
I think the number has been projected.

291
00:16:20.434 --> 00:16:21.335
But we shall see.

292
00:16:21.735 --> 00:16:24.157
Okay, so we've got a backdrop of potential
volatility.

293
00:16:24.697 --> 00:16:29.980
The US election, we don't want to talk
about because I really don't want to know

294
00:16:29.980 --> 00:16:31.980
what your views are on who's going to win.

295
00:16:31.980 --> 00:16:34.363
In case you say the wrong person, then
I'll dislike you intensely.

296
00:16:35.043 --> 00:16:38.665
But you know what I mean.

297
00:16:38.725 --> 00:16:40.426
It's going to be huge.

298
00:16:40.606 --> 00:16:42.547
Yeah, it's going to be huge.

299
00:16:42.547 --> 00:16:43.247
It is.

300
00:16:43.247 --> 00:16:45.149
So let's have a look at some markets here,
if we can.

301
00:16:45.529 --> 00:16:47.850
Dollar Rand is my internet's back up, by
the way.

302
00:16:47.850 --> 00:16:49.791
It wasn't the Dutch system.

303
00:16:49.831 --> 00:16:52.493
It was Lindsay Williams'dodgy finger.

304
00:16:52.805 --> 00:16:54.486
1764 dollar round.

305
00:16:54.847 --> 00:16:57.369
British pound against the round is 2308.

306
00:16:57.369 --> 00:16:59.030
Euro rand is 1932.

307
00:16:59.030 --> 00:17:01.712
Euro dollar 109.55.

308
00:17:01.712 --> 00:17:02.453
What else we got here?

309
00:17:02.833 --> 00:17:04.494
Gold price, it's got a bit quiet, hasn't
it?

310
00:17:05.295 --> 00:17:12.000
It's holding above 2600, but I thought for
all the world it was going to be going

311
00:17:12.000 --> 00:17:14.000
through 2700 a couple of

312
00:17:14.000 --> 00:17:16.000
weeks ago, but not to be.

313
00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:16.324
2615, which is essentially unchanged on
the day.

314
00:17:16.864 --> 00:17:17.705
The platinum price.

315
00:17:18.197 --> 00:17:24.560
9.60, which is down 19, and the palladium
price is up 37 to 1,040.

316
00:17:25.081 --> 00:17:26.942
Now, the all-important oil price.

317
00:17:27.822 --> 00:17:34.086
It's actually had a good day for consumers
of oil today because Brent crude oil is,

318
00:17:34.086 --> 00:17:36.086
gosh, it was down over 2%,

319
00:17:36.086 --> 00:17:39.889
now down only 0.9%, $76.53, and West
Texas,

320
00:17:40.389 --> 00:17:45.692
$73.06 per barrel, which is down 0.7%.

321
00:17:46.532 --> 00:17:47.793
Right, stock markets now.

322
00:17:48.013 --> 00:17:51.914
The S&P 500 futures, 58.22.

323
00:17:51.914 --> 00:17:54.695
That's December futures up 0.4%.

324
00:17:54.735 --> 00:17:55.455
That's quite nice.

325
00:17:55.455 --> 00:17:57.716
That must be coming close to all-time
record highs.

326
00:17:57.716 --> 00:18:02.497
US 10-year, 4.05, just below, 4.0460.

327
00:18:03.257 --> 00:18:07.038
And the South African 10-year, hmm.

328
00:18:07.038 --> 00:18:09.839
Last time we spoke, it was floating with
going below 9%.

329
00:18:09.879 --> 00:18:12.400
Now 9.37%.

330
00:18:13.060 --> 00:18:16.581
And Bitcoin is 60, let's call it 62,000.

331
00:18:17.281 --> 00:18:20.003
down just around about 1.4%.

332
00:18:20.003 --> 00:18:22.625
What about local markets since we spoke,
Skull?

333
00:18:22.965 --> 00:18:29.229
Commodities had a bit of a start after the
China news, but then sort of fizzled out

334
00:18:29.229 --> 00:18:31.229
again, didn't they?

335
00:18:31.229 --> 00:18:32.362
Yeah, massive, massive retracement
yesterday.

336
00:18:32.362 --> 00:18:38.367
I mean, the likes of, I don't know the
figures of yesterday, but I remember

337
00:18:38.367 --> 00:18:40.367
Anglo-American were down

338
00:18:40.367 --> 00:18:42.367
5.1-something percent.

339
00:18:42.367 --> 00:18:45.833
And we had a lot of the big, big commodity
counters that was under pressure.

340
00:18:45.833 --> 00:18:50.176
I see the resource index sort of keeping
its nose in the green,

341
00:18:50.196 --> 00:18:55.601
but not really recovering some of the
major, major losses we've seen yesterday.

342
00:18:56.001 --> 00:18:59.164
I think the big one that stood out for me
today was Mondi.

343
00:18:59.364 --> 00:19:03.247
Mondi announced the acquisition.

344
00:19:04.588 --> 00:19:10.632
They just mentioned that they're going to
acquire Schumacher packaging Western

345
00:19:10.632 --> 00:19:12.632
Europe assets.

346
00:19:12.632 --> 00:19:17.436
It's going to be a deal of 634 million
euros, so quite a sizable.

347
00:19:17.897 --> 00:19:23.881
I just mentioned it's going to add 1
billion square meters of corrugated

348
00:19:23.881 --> 00:19:25.881
packaging for the operation.

349
00:19:25.881 --> 00:19:28.704
It doesn't have real figures.

350
00:19:31.126 --> 00:19:32.967
financials on Schumacher.

351
00:19:33.328 --> 00:19:37.411
But I just know the market really loves it
because as the announcement came out,

352
00:19:37.851 --> 00:19:40.874
they went positive and they went seriously
into positive.

353
00:19:41.374 --> 00:19:44.297
Mondi, you know, closing the day up close
to 5%.

354
00:19:44.297 --> 00:19:46.659
So that was a really good one.

355
00:19:47.079 --> 00:19:47.779
Very good, yeah.

356
00:19:47.900 --> 00:19:53.164
On that note, leaderboard on my screen
anyway, PHP Prop, nearly 9% higher.

357
00:19:53.444 --> 00:19:56.167
Mondi PLC, 4.2% to the good.

358
00:19:56.247 --> 00:19:57.468
Karoo up 3%.

359
00:19:57.468 --> 00:19:58.168
10%.

360
00:19:58.168 --> 00:20:00.710
Mass, a property company, of course, 2.4%
higher.

361
00:20:01.050 --> 00:20:03.212
Impala Platinum up nearly 2%.

362
00:20:03.212 --> 00:20:05.894
On the downside, Highprop down nearly 6%.

363
00:20:05.894 --> 00:20:07.555
Is that an ex-Div story, Skull?

364
00:20:07.635 --> 00:20:08.335
Yes.

365
00:20:08.335 --> 00:20:09.116
Yes, it is.

366
00:20:09.756 --> 00:20:10.456
I do.

367
00:20:10.456 --> 00:20:10.937
Okay.

368
00:20:10.937 --> 00:20:12.498
Sassl down 4.6%.

369
00:20:13.139 --> 00:20:14.820
First Rand down 3.2%.

370
00:20:14.820 --> 00:20:17.502
Sogo Sun 2.75% in the red.

371
00:20:18.042 --> 00:20:24.867
And Momentum Metropolitan down 2.5%. So a
mixed board there,

372
00:20:24.927 --> 00:20:25.627
Skull.

373
00:20:25.627 --> 00:20:26.187
What do you think?

374
00:20:26.187 --> 00:20:26.767
Do you think...

375
00:20:27.396 --> 00:20:34.039
The resurgence in optimism for South
Africa has had its initial sort of

376
00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:36.039
knee-jerk reaction to the upside,

377
00:20:36.039 --> 00:20:37.561
government and national unity load
shedding and all those things we're so

378
00:20:37.561 --> 00:20:39.561
familiar with.

379
00:20:39.561 --> 00:20:40.362
And now we have to say, right, is it
justified?

380
00:20:40.662 --> 00:20:41.942
Can we take the next leg up?

381
00:20:43.103 --> 00:20:46.304
I always say, the proof of the pudding is
in the eating.

382
00:20:46.785 --> 00:20:52.787
I mean, I've had a lot of politicians
lately that we've seen that came out and

383
00:20:52.787 --> 00:20:53.007
said they're

384
00:20:53.007 --> 00:20:54.268
going to do this and they're going to do
that.

385
00:20:54.828 --> 00:20:59.651
The idea is to grow the South African
economy by 2% per annum for the next two

386
00:20:59.651 --> 00:20:59.810
years.

387
00:20:59.810 --> 00:21:04.433
And now it's actually delivering on these
promises.

388
00:21:04.673 --> 00:21:09.936
The GNU is really, when I look at it,

389
00:21:09.996 --> 00:21:16.800
it does seem like it's starting to produce
some positive outcomes.

390
00:21:17.460 --> 00:21:20.082
But we need to see some solid outcomes.

391
00:21:20.082 --> 00:21:24.224
Because remember, 2% per annum is all
fine.

392
00:21:24.520 --> 00:21:29.664
I mean, it's still not good enough for a
country like South Africa, not even close.

393
00:21:29.664 --> 00:21:33.507
I mean, four years in a row, we've had
pretty much zero growth.

394
00:21:34.628 --> 00:21:40.813
When you look at the population growth
over the last two years, you know, the

395
00:21:40.813 --> 00:21:42.813
population growth has been over 2% per
annum.

396
00:21:42.813 --> 00:21:45.317
And that's, you know, according to the
census, that's the people for the red

397
00:21:45.317 --> 00:21:45.416
account.

398
00:21:46.178 --> 00:21:50.121
So I would think, you know, we would most
probably be at a population growth close

399
00:21:50.121 --> 00:21:52.121
to 3%.

400
00:21:52.121 --> 00:21:53.624
If we're not growing our economy by 2% to
3% per annum.

401
00:21:54.400 --> 00:22:01.325
we're wasting our time so we need to now
not not produce those those that those

402
00:22:01.325 --> 00:22:03.325
growths um

403
00:22:03.325 --> 00:22:08.730
so do i think it's it's it's it's gonna
happen yes i do think i think there's

404
00:22:08.730 --> 00:22:10.730
gonna be improvements um yeah we're
sitting

405
00:22:10.730 --> 00:22:13.733
i don't wanna even count the days anymore
but i mean we've we've lost touch you know

406
00:22:13.733 --> 00:22:15.733
when

407
00:22:15.733 --> 00:22:19.437
last we had load shedding and and we know
that uh governor he

408
00:22:20.478 --> 00:22:22.319
mentioned last year that

409
00:22:23.384 --> 00:22:30.069
Bloat shedding is costing us anything
between 1.5% and 2% per annum in terms of

410
00:22:30.069 --> 00:22:32.069
economic growth.

411
00:22:32.069 --> 00:22:33.231
So that's what we should be looking at.

412
00:22:33.531 --> 00:22:38.194
We should now be adding whatever growth
forecast we had.

413
00:22:38.214 --> 00:22:40.376
And what I'm using, I'm using IMF.

414
00:22:40.596 --> 00:22:42.237
IMF with the latest one.

415
00:22:42.537 --> 00:22:46.119
Now, I know they will increase it, but the
latest one that they had in July,

416
00:22:46.500 --> 00:22:52.604
they kept us at a growth rate of 0.9% in
2024.

417
00:22:53.448 --> 00:22:55.910
1.1%, I think, for 2025.

418
00:22:55.970 --> 00:22:59.353
And when you look at the World Bank, World
Bank is somewhat more optimistic.

419
00:22:59.393 --> 00:23:02.495
They've had us at 1.2%. Now,

420
00:23:02.555 --> 00:23:09.361
if we don't have load shedding and the SR
Reserve Bank has

421
00:23:09.961 --> 00:23:14.945
anything to go by, then we should be
growing this year by one and a half, at

422
00:23:14.945 --> 00:23:16.945
least one and a half percent.

423
00:23:16.945 --> 00:23:18.945
Let's hope so, yeah.

424
00:23:18.945 --> 00:23:21.030
And from little acorns to giant oaks grow
or something.

425
00:23:21.831 --> 00:23:22.531
Old oaks.

426
00:23:24.294 --> 00:23:24.994
There we go.

427
00:23:24.994 --> 00:23:25.435
There we go.

428
00:23:25.757 --> 00:23:27.780
Okay, give us the closing indices if you
would, Scott.

429
00:23:28.920 --> 00:23:34.722
So as mentioned earlier, the JSE didn't
have a positive day again,

430
00:23:34.762 --> 00:23:36.243
but not to the extent yesterday.

431
00:23:36.323 --> 00:23:42.185
Down 154 points close to date, 85,337.

432
00:23:42.185 --> 00:23:45.767
That is down 0.18% resources.

433
00:23:46.507 --> 00:23:53.150
Just in the green, eight basis point
positive, while industrials were a quarter

434
00:23:53.150 --> 00:23:55.150
of a percentage in the green.

435
00:23:55.150 --> 00:23:57.150
Financial struggle today.

436
00:23:57.150 --> 00:23:57.312
I think it was a bit of a rant story
there.

437
00:23:57.352 --> 00:23:58.052
But.

438
00:23:58.052 --> 00:23:59.333
Yeah, financials did struggle.

439
00:23:59.353 --> 00:24:01.714
They were down 0.86%,

440
00:24:02.094 --> 00:24:06.397
while the SIP property index also down
0.16%.

441
00:24:06.417 --> 00:24:10.619
When we look at the value traded, not a
very, very active day.

442
00:24:10.619 --> 00:24:13.501
I mean, we didn't reach the previous two
days.

443
00:24:13.981 --> 00:24:16.322
We've surpassed the 20 billion mark today.

444
00:24:16.322 --> 00:24:21.085
We struggled 17.5 billion Rand traded on
the JSE.

445
00:24:21.125 --> 00:24:27.168
And if we look at, currently look at the
US, US as it currently stands, the S&P 500

446
00:24:27.168 --> 00:24:29.168
is a half a percent in the...

447
00:24:29.168 --> 00:24:33.633
The green Dow Jones, 63 basis points, and
the Nasdaq also half a percent positive

448
00:24:33.633 --> 00:24:35.633
for today.

449
00:24:35.633 --> 00:24:37.633
Very good, Scott.

450
00:24:37.633 --> 00:24:39.633
Lovely to talk to you after a two-week
break.

451
00:24:39.633 --> 00:24:42.058
Thanks very much for your time, even
though you've more or less guaranteed I'll

452
00:24:42.058 --> 00:24:44.058
have another sleepless night and no nails
in the morning.

453
00:24:44.058 --> 00:24:45.181
But yes, your points are well made.

454
00:24:45.201 --> 00:24:50.805
Scott Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was

455
00:24:50.805 --> 00:24:52.805
the 5 o'clock shadow.

456
00:24:52.805 --> 00:24:55.388
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams.

457
00:24:55.728 --> 00:25:02.353
and various contributors and do not
reflect the policy, position, or opinion

458
00:25:02.353 --> 00:25:04.353
of any other agency, organization,

459
00:25:04.353 --> 00:25:07.316
employer, or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

460
00:25:07.776 --> 00:25:14.741
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

461
00:25:14.741 --> 00:25:16.741
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

462
00:25:16.741 --> 00:25:20.925
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

463
00:25:20.925 --> 00:25:22.925
change, revision,

464
00:25:22.925 --> 00:25:23.067
and rethinking at any time.

465
00:25:23.367 --> 00:25:24.548
Please do not hold us to them.

466
00:25:24.986 --> 00:25:25.782
in perpetuity.