WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.392 --> 00:00:05.856 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.856 --> 00:00:09.018 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock 3 00:00:08.398 --> 00:00:09.098 shadow. 4 00:00:09.138 --> 00:00:12.861 And as always on a Thursday, I speak to Viv Govender from Ransuisse in 5 00:00:12.100 --> 00:00:12.861 Johannesburg, 6 00:00:13.341 --> 00:00:19.405 and to David Shapiro from Sasson Securities, sometimes in Johannesburg, but 7 00:00:17.984 --> 00:00:19.405 a moment in New York, 8 00:00:19.785 --> 00:00:21.747 and very soon to be in Boston. 9 00:00:21.827 --> 00:00:26.450 Viv, I've got to start with you because something happened this morning which 10 00:00:24.769 --> 00:00:26.450 ignited markets, 11 00:00:26.890 --> 00:00:29.032 and that was a China stimulus. 12 00:00:29.680 --> 00:00:32.002 package, which we knew was going to happen. 13 00:00:32.302 --> 00:00:33.724 We didn't know the extent of it. 14 00:00:33.984 --> 00:00:35.205 But can it last, Viv? 15 00:00:35.205 --> 00:00:36.906 Because it's done a few good things. 16 00:00:36.946 --> 00:00:38.508 It's taken people by surprise. 17 00:00:39.048 --> 00:00:44.153 Yeah, look, I would always say that this is basically like giving somebody 18 00:00:42.131 --> 00:00:44.153 adrenaline when they have a broken leg. 19 00:00:44.693 --> 00:00:48.437 It's going to help ease the pain and make everything better in the short term. 20 00:00:49.077 --> 00:00:51.840 But, you know, it's not going to really solve the real problem. 21 00:00:51.840 --> 00:00:54.522 And I've talked about this, I think, a number of times on this show. 22 00:00:55.143 --> 00:00:56.664 The problem with China is that they have... 23 00:00:56.984 --> 00:01:01.687 Look, in the U.S., you can have Biden, you can have Trump, you can have, you know, 24 00:00:59.866 --> 00:01:01.687 Joe Schmoe off the street running the U.S. 25 00:01:01.747 --> 00:01:02.447 economy. 26 00:01:02.768 --> 00:01:03.468 The U.S. 27 00:01:03.829 --> 00:01:05.330 government, it really doesn't matter. 28 00:01:07.211 --> 00:01:09.813 The underlying entrepreneurs of the U.S. 29 00:01:10.173 --> 00:01:12.454 are not scared of whoever is in charge. 30 00:01:12.494 --> 00:01:13.194 You know what I mean? 31 00:01:13.515 --> 00:01:19.759 Elon Musk will make fun of Joe Biden because they'll make fun of Trump when 32 00:01:18.158 --> 00:01:19.759 basically he's in power. 33 00:01:19.779 --> 00:01:20.600 It doesn't really matter. 34 00:01:21.140 --> 00:01:22.181 But in China, it's different. 35 00:01:22.641 --> 00:01:26.444 When you offend Xi Jinping, you basically disappear for three months. 36 00:01:26.764 --> 00:01:31.206 and come back and give up your company and go teach English, I think, in Japan, like 37 00:01:30.446 --> 00:01:31.206 Jack Ma did. 38 00:01:32.727 --> 00:01:39.011 You don't get a chance to basically get the disapproval of the premier without 39 00:01:37.690 --> 00:01:39.011 having some consequences. 40 00:01:39.371 --> 00:01:44.233 And the problem is in China is that the person running the country at the moment 41 00:01:41.592 --> 00:01:44.233 seems to have gained a lot of political power, 42 00:01:44.754 --> 00:01:47.615 but he doesn't seem to have the competence to run the rest of the economy. 43 00:01:48.176 --> 00:01:50.577 And I think that is the real underlying issue in China. 44 00:01:52.118 --> 00:01:56.180 For those that don't know, he's changed the way the Chinese government has worked. 45 00:01:56.632 --> 00:01:57.712 for the last several decades. 46 00:01:57.712 --> 00:01:59.313 It used to be you take two terms. 47 00:01:59.313 --> 00:02:01.514 The first term you are basically in charge. 48 00:02:01.534 --> 00:02:04.095 The second time you have almost a deputy that's going to be the next leader. 49 00:02:04.515 --> 00:02:09.597 And then when you retire after two terms, he has one term as in charge, and then 50 00:02:07.436 --> 00:02:09.597 there's a deputy that will be the follow-on leader. 51 00:02:09.937 --> 00:02:10.958 He has stopped doing that. 52 00:02:11.398 --> 00:02:12.519 So this is his third term. 53 00:02:12.939 --> 00:02:17.441 He's totally removed all kind of opposition to him. 54 00:02:17.901 --> 00:02:22.823 And in fact, he's basically gone out and made sure that they're all gone. 55 00:02:23.583 --> 00:02:27.445 And so basically he's in charge and he's doesn't seem to know how to operate this 56 00:02:27.045 --> 00:02:27.745 economy. 57 00:02:27.846 --> 00:02:29.987 It's more control, less startups. 58 00:02:29.987 --> 00:02:32.269 The startup numbers in China are absolutely shocking. 59 00:02:32.690 --> 00:02:38.594 So yes, all these things in terms of stimulus, good for the market in the short 60 00:02:35.692 --> 00:02:38.594 term, long term, the Chinese economy in very big trouble. 61 00:02:39.195 --> 00:02:43.979 Okay, and David, I'll bring you in on this one before we get to America and politics, 62 00:02:44.459 --> 00:02:50.945 because I've spoken to a couple of people over the last couple of days, and one 63 00:02:47.482 --> 00:02:50.945 person, and I'm going to mention his name, Magnus Haystack, who's been, 64 00:02:51.645 --> 00:02:54.848 he's a slightly controversial figure, but I like him. 65 00:02:55.248 --> 00:02:57.830 And I like the way he talks because I understand him. 66 00:02:58.331 --> 00:03:00.592 There are several people in my podcasting life. 67 00:03:00.873 --> 00:03:06.137 There's Viv Govender, there's David Shapiro, there's Wayne McCurry, and 68 00:03:04.616 --> 00:03:06.137 there's Magnus Haystack. 69 00:03:06.177 --> 00:03:07.058 And there are a few others. 70 00:03:07.398 --> 00:03:09.460 But they talk sense and I can understand them. 71 00:03:09.480 --> 00:03:14.384 And if they were salesmen, and I'm including you two here, I would say, okay, 72 00:03:13.363 --> 00:03:14.384 where do I sign? 73 00:03:14.444 --> 00:03:15.725 Who do I make the check out to? 74 00:03:15.825 --> 00:03:17.886 Because you make so much sense. 75 00:03:18.547 --> 00:03:24.492 And he has suddenly gone from 12 years of being underweight, SA Equities, to saying 76 00:03:23.111 --> 00:03:24.492 maybe. 77 00:03:25.080 --> 00:03:27.762 We should be looking to shift a little bit. 78 00:03:27.842 --> 00:03:34.087 Yeah, I interviewed him today, and he's controversial because he speaks his mind. 79 00:03:34.588 --> 00:03:40.372 But David, if there is a stimulus in China, and if they have run down their 80 00:03:38.911 --> 00:03:40.372 stockpiles of commodities, 81 00:03:40.713 --> 00:03:47.038 and if the economy does do better and they need to replenish those stockpiles, then 82 00:03:45.316 --> 00:03:47.038 it's so good for South Africa. 83 00:03:47.358 --> 00:03:49.159 And look at the rand, for goodness sake. 84 00:03:49.500 --> 00:03:50.200 So tell me. 85 00:03:50.080 --> 00:03:51.621 Well, you don't have to buy South Africa. 86 00:03:51.701 --> 00:03:52.822 You can buy commodities. 87 00:03:53.303 --> 00:03:54.744 You can buy global commodities. 88 00:03:56.612 --> 00:04:01.654 Gencor, sorry, I mean Glencore doesn't operate in South Africa. 89 00:04:01.954 --> 00:04:04.034 BHP doesn't operate in South Africa. 90 00:04:04.615 --> 00:04:05.855 Anglo is very little. 91 00:04:06.355 --> 00:04:08.656 So, I mean, you don't have to buy South Africa. 92 00:04:08.656 --> 00:04:10.536 But if they're cheap, David, then... 93 00:04:11.356 --> 00:04:12.056 No, no, no. 94 00:04:12.157 --> 00:04:12.877 I'm with you. 95 00:04:13.097 --> 00:04:14.417 I'm saying you don't have to... 96 00:04:14.697 --> 00:04:15.678 that's not South Africa. 97 00:04:16.058 --> 00:04:17.158 You're buying commodities. 98 00:04:17.178 --> 00:04:20.659 You reckon there's going to be a turnaround in the commodity markets. 99 00:04:20.659 --> 00:04:23.280 There are hundreds of commodity companies around the world. 100 00:04:23.760 --> 00:04:24.460 So... 101 00:04:24.420 --> 00:04:30.242 We get this distorted view of our market, you know, that this is the place to be. 102 00:04:30.342 --> 00:04:36.023 First of all, you've got to then make a decision on platinum, and you've got to 103 00:04:34.183 --> 00:04:36.023 make a decision on iron ore. 104 00:04:36.143 --> 00:04:43.005 Yes, Kumba's very cheap, but I mean, if he says, look, I'm going to nibble at some of 105 00:04:41.885 --> 00:04:43.005 the commodity markets, 106 00:04:43.125 --> 00:04:43.865 I can buy that. 107 00:04:44.185 --> 00:04:50.467 You know, I can buy that he might be taking a position in Billiton, but that's 108 00:04:49.127 --> 00:04:50.467 a global position. 109 00:04:50.767 --> 00:04:53.088 That's not buying SA Inc. 110 00:04:53.468 --> 00:04:54.168 That's not... 111 00:04:53.928 --> 00:04:56.670 buying our economy, which is still, I think, 112 00:04:57.171 --> 00:05:03.016 under enormous pressure because structurally it's been knocked for 30 113 00:05:02.335 --> 00:05:03.035 years. 114 00:05:03.580 --> 00:05:05.942 You know, there's so much work that has to be done. 115 00:05:05.962 --> 00:05:08.904 So I think you've got to differentiate the two. 116 00:05:09.265 --> 00:05:11.987 You know, if he's going to buy it, does he want to buy British American tobacco? 117 00:05:12.347 --> 00:05:14.569 You know, does he think that that's going to benefit? 118 00:05:15.570 --> 00:05:18.372 Or a booze company, you know, ABN, 119 00:05:18.672 --> 00:05:23.577 so I think just be careful about getting too optimistic on, 120 00:05:25.318 --> 00:05:32.003 I'm not knocking South Africa, I'm saying, but it's a certain area that could benefit 121 00:05:29.421 --> 00:05:32.003 if China does decide to. 122 00:05:33.424 --> 00:05:34.585 to pull all the leaders. 123 00:05:34.745 --> 00:05:37.406 Just to clarify, he wasn't saying go out and buy South Africa. 124 00:05:37.466 --> 00:05:42.248 He said that maybe he's starting to look at it, and he didn't mention particular 125 00:05:41.408 --> 00:05:42.248 stops. 126 00:05:42.248 --> 00:05:44.369 He did say mid-camps but didn't go through them. 127 00:05:44.569 --> 00:05:48.951 He just said that he and his company are looking at it. 128 00:05:48.991 --> 00:05:55.794 So don't think that I'm saying that Magnus Haystack has gone out with Brenthurst 129 00:05:53.213 --> 00:05:55.794 Wealth and his clients to do it. 130 00:05:55.794 --> 00:05:57.155 He's not doing that. 131 00:05:57.415 --> 00:05:59.016 Viv, do you agree with what David said? 132 00:06:00.836 --> 00:06:06.822 To some extent, I mean, in the short term, I think there's, forget how far back we've 133 00:06:05.320 --> 00:06:06.822 lagged versus everyone else in the world. 134 00:06:07.102 --> 00:06:10.685 We're like amazed that we are able to produce electricity every day at the 135 00:06:10.405 --> 00:06:11.105 moment. 136 00:06:10.685 --> 00:06:11.385 You know what I mean? 137 00:06:11.666 --> 00:06:12.667 Low-chip city. 138 00:06:12.707 --> 00:06:16.670 Every single country in the world that has a semi-functional government is able to do 139 00:06:15.589 --> 00:06:16.670 this, right? 140 00:06:18.572 --> 00:06:23.456 I honestly do believe it doesn't take a lot to really make South Africa a lot more 141 00:06:22.575 --> 00:06:23.456 attractive than Israel. 142 00:06:23.496 --> 00:06:25.998 I don't think it can solve the long-term problems of unemployment and so on. 143 00:06:26.398 --> 00:06:33.208 But I think a significant, you know, really… a big boost up in terms of things 144 00:06:29.705 --> 00:06:33.208 like, you know, the local economy, employment, et cetera, 145 00:06:34.449 --> 00:06:40.374 not to the point at which we're going to be like some 10% like we should be, is 146 00:06:37.852 --> 00:06:40.374 doable if we just get things in order. 147 00:06:40.494 --> 00:06:43.176 But, you know, just today, speaking of this year, 148 00:06:43.176 --> 00:06:48.020 I don't know if you guys saw yet another issue we had with the GIDU, 149 00:06:48.861 --> 00:06:54.906 yet another mayor has been kicked out by the ANC, you know, 150 00:06:55.406 --> 00:06:57.428 Alliance DA Mayor, and Swade has been kicked out. 151 00:06:58.553 --> 00:07:01.214 I think the H-Colors, the Shabas guys, 152 00:07:01.475 --> 00:07:06.118 and the vulnerability in this country because of the GNU, 153 00:07:06.578 --> 00:07:12.863 which is pretty much what's been holding up the economy or the market right now, 154 00:07:09.300 --> 00:07:12.863 what's been holding a lot of optimism, even Iran, I think, is benefiting from it. 155 00:07:13.844 --> 00:07:14.884 That is such a vulnerable thing. 156 00:07:14.924 --> 00:07:20.608 So, yes, I think we could solve problems, but the risk in South Africa remains too 157 00:07:19.087 --> 00:07:20.608 high for the moment, I think. 158 00:07:21.669 --> 00:07:24.371 We punch way above our weight. 159 00:07:24.851 --> 00:07:25.551 You know what I mean? 160 00:07:26.112 --> 00:07:31.895 We go to the UN and Cyril gets on top there as though he's a leader of the whole 161 00:07:31.095 --> 00:07:31.895 of Africa. 162 00:07:32.336 --> 00:07:36.558 You know, Lindsay, Africa is 48 to 50. 163 00:07:36.558 --> 00:07:37.379 I can't remember. 164 00:07:37.379 --> 00:07:41.661 I keep losing count how many nations there are in sub-Saharan Africa. 165 00:07:42.521 --> 00:07:44.903 You know, not one of them is a true democracy. 166 00:07:46.864 --> 00:07:49.225 That is a huge problem, David, I have to say. 167 00:07:49.245 --> 00:07:51.466 You understand what I'm saying? 168 00:07:51.466 --> 00:07:54.088 I know exactly what you're saying. 169 00:07:54.088 --> 00:07:54.788 Africa in one, say, oh. 170 00:07:54.588 --> 00:07:58.110 Africa is a wonderful, no, it's made up of 50 different nations. 171 00:07:58.610 --> 00:08:01.492 Every one of those countries has got its own culture. 172 00:08:01.912 --> 00:08:03.393 It's got its own rules. 173 00:08:03.773 --> 00:08:05.514 It's got its own backhand rules. 174 00:08:05.594 --> 00:08:06.915 It's got its own cops. 175 00:08:06.975 --> 00:08:07.675 It's got it. 176 00:08:07.615 --> 00:08:10.677 You know, and in many cases, yes, 177 00:08:10.777 --> 00:08:15.019 certainly the areas are filled with commodities which are worth mining. 178 00:08:15.059 --> 00:08:18.281 But when you go into mine there, you better go with your own army. 179 00:08:18.421 --> 00:08:20.122 Otherwise, you're not going to come out alive. 180 00:08:20.142 --> 00:08:23.264 So you have to actually get your own militia. 181 00:08:23.676 --> 00:08:30.661 to uh to survive so you know i can never understand this if you go to america you 182 00:08:29.100 --> 00:08:30.661 know from san diego all 183 00:08:30.661 --> 00:08:37.605 the way up to new hampshire it's one country no no no you know now you're 184 00:08:35.204 --> 00:08:37.605 talking nonsense david i'm sorry the nonsense 185 00:08:37.605 --> 00:08:42.489 is too you can go to one state and have an abortion because you've been raped by your 186 00:08:42.549 --> 00:08:45.911 troglodyte uncle or something and 187 00:08:46.011 --> 00:08:52.075 you can go to another one and you won't be allowed to do that so america let's let's 188 00:08:50.654 --> 00:08:52.075 face it is as 189 00:08:52.415 --> 00:08:56.337 fragmented you not quite as badly as Africa is. 190 00:08:56.758 --> 00:08:57.998 But it's not perfect. 191 00:08:58.018 --> 00:08:59.539 We'll come to that in a moment. 192 00:08:59.539 --> 00:09:01.640 But anyway, I'm making a case for South Africa now. 193 00:09:01.720 --> 00:09:03.781 PPI came out at 2.8% today. 194 00:09:04.141 --> 00:09:07.663 CPI is below the midpoint of 4.5%. 195 00:09:08.663 --> 00:09:13.426 Load shedding hasn't been a factor in life across the country for six months. 196 00:09:13.486 --> 00:09:16.867 David, you've had localized load shedding because of… You've got to believe it. 197 00:09:17.067 --> 00:09:17.767 Exactly. 198 00:09:19.348 --> 00:09:23.591 The government of national unity may not be perfect, but it's a step in the right 199 00:09:22.871 --> 00:09:23.591 direction. 200 00:09:23.891 --> 00:09:29.855 Commodity prices starting to do well because of the weak dollar interest rates 201 00:09:27.273 --> 00:09:29.855 coming down and the China story. 202 00:09:30.315 --> 00:09:35.078 So there are a few things that you wouldn't have been able to say a year ago. 203 00:09:35.638 --> 00:09:40.441 And when you talk about America being one country, David, it's not one country. 204 00:09:40.521 --> 00:09:41.221 We can see that. 205 00:09:41.442 --> 00:09:44.264 How can a country that is one country vote? 206 00:09:44.784 --> 00:09:48.348 40% of the population that can vote, or 45%, whatever it is, 207 00:09:48.749 --> 00:09:52.934 can vote for someone who is as loathsome as Donald Trump. 208 00:09:53.694 --> 00:09:55.677 David, I invite your comment now. 209 00:09:56.037 --> 00:09:58.220 No, we're going to talk about that in a sec. 210 00:09:58.420 --> 00:09:59.120 Yes, we will. 211 00:09:59.121 --> 00:09:59.821 Really. 212 00:09:59.789 --> 00:10:06.575 i mean it's wonderful to watch i love it what i am saying is that in san diego you 213 00:10:04.253 --> 00:10:06.575 can use a dollar and in uh 214 00:10:06.575 --> 00:10:13.361 uh new hampshire you use a dollar you know it's one currency it's one economy it's 215 00:10:11.960 --> 00:10:13.361 very true they're different 216 00:10:13.381 --> 00:10:15.983 cultures but i'm saying in africa every 217 00:10:16.204 --> 00:10:22.990 every country is uh is is different you know with its own set of regulations rules 218 00:10:20.608 --> 00:10:22.990 whatever it is yes you've got state 219 00:10:23.070 --> 00:10:28.374 law and you've got uh federal law in the united states but It's homogeneous, 220 00:10:28.494 --> 00:10:30.455 almost like South America is the same thing. 221 00:10:31.315 --> 00:10:34.637 If you look other than Brazil, Brazil is Portuguese. 222 00:10:34.677 --> 00:10:37.178 I think all the other nations are Spanish-speaking. 223 00:10:37.218 --> 00:10:40.159 So there is kind of a commonality amongst them. 224 00:10:40.199 --> 00:10:42.300 But in Africa, it's all over the place. 225 00:10:42.900 --> 00:10:47.862 But it's so difficult to coordinate it. 226 00:10:48.063 --> 00:10:52.805 I must say that I find the same way about India, even though it's one massive 227 00:10:51.724 --> 00:10:52.805 continent. 228 00:10:53.965 --> 00:11:00.187 It also seems to be very fragmented in attitudes and difficult to kind of get a 229 00:10:59.587 --> 00:11:00.287 grip on it. 230 00:11:00.467 --> 00:11:07.369 But that's my worry about, and I'm thrilled that we're starting to see a 231 00:11:05.808 --> 00:11:07.369 turnaround in South Africa, 232 00:11:07.589 --> 00:11:09.269 that things are looking better. 233 00:11:09.329 --> 00:11:15.791 But, you know, 30 years of neglect is not going to correct itself in a short time. 234 00:11:15.891 --> 00:11:16.851 It needs effort. 235 00:11:17.252 --> 00:11:22.373 And I think Viv brought up a very important point with the mayor of Twani or 236 00:11:21.653 --> 00:11:22.373 Pretoria. 237 00:11:23.961 --> 00:11:26.002 nobody wants to rule for the common good. 238 00:11:26.302 --> 00:11:27.763 We all want to rule for power. 239 00:11:28.083 --> 00:11:30.444 You know, there seems to be, that's all they're interested in. 240 00:11:30.664 --> 00:11:33.165 You know, it's all about power, power, power. 241 00:11:33.865 --> 00:11:39.568 And until you can get some kind of government that's going to say, look, we 242 00:11:39.007 --> 00:11:39.707 need to, 243 00:11:41.228 --> 00:11:44.830 and I want to get on to a point now, which I think is quite important. 244 00:11:44.870 --> 00:11:47.291 You need to get this country going. 245 00:11:48.011 --> 00:11:52.493 I, when I walk around here in America and I look at the opportunities and I look. 246 00:11:52.897 --> 00:11:56.819 You know, Lindsay, we need, we don't need commodities. 247 00:11:57.059 --> 00:12:04.043 You need to have the factors of production or the productive resources to grow your 248 00:12:02.742 --> 00:12:04.043 country and to keep in 249 00:12:04.123 --> 00:12:05.684 touch with what's happening. 250 00:12:05.884 --> 00:12:08.185 Yeah, but Viv, let's bring Viv in here now, 251 00:12:08.405 --> 00:12:14.889 because you've spoken before about the tax implications of commodities going up and 252 00:12:14.289 --> 00:12:14.989 therefore the 253 00:12:15.089 --> 00:12:20.352 price of commodity companies on the JSE going up and then paying more taxes. 254 00:12:20.652 --> 00:12:21.973 So that's part of the whole thing. 255 00:12:22.313 --> 00:12:27.416 And Viv, David was not disparaging about Africa, but realistic about Africa. 256 00:12:27.496 --> 00:12:31.438 And I came in with the, well, look at America, how fragmented that is. 257 00:12:31.758 --> 00:12:34.500 And I can almost hear you listening intently. 258 00:12:34.780 --> 00:12:38.902 If you could hear someone listen, you would have been shouting at us. 259 00:12:39.642 --> 00:12:40.743 What do you make of it all? 260 00:12:42.044 --> 00:12:46.726 Well, I think this is something actually I did follow more in my academic career. 261 00:12:47.287 --> 00:12:50.768 But you have to understand that most of the colonial countries are not actually 262 00:12:50.148 --> 00:12:50.848 countries. 263 00:12:50.808 --> 00:12:51.749 Even India is not a country. 264 00:12:52.229 --> 00:12:59.015 uh in in the normal sense so for instance france is full of french people germany's 265 00:12:55.672 --> 00:12:59.015 full of german people india you say brackets is full of indian 266 00:12:59.055 --> 00:13:05.860 people but they're very different people like north indians speak a language that 267 00:13:02.478 --> 00:13:05.860 is more similar to english than it is to south indian languages that's how 268 00:13:05.860 --> 00:13:09.143 different it is you know what i mean yes uh it's 269 00:13:09.183 --> 00:13:16.129 it's there's a there's divides india and they were never one country until uh they 270 00:13:14.067 --> 00:13:16.129 were colonized by the british it's 271 00:13:16.129 --> 00:13:21.754 like saying europe is one country because they're all european but in reality the 272 00:13:19.692 --> 00:13:21.754 germans the french were never fighting, 273 00:13:22.194 --> 00:13:24.235 were never basically one country ever. 274 00:13:25.476 --> 00:13:30.159 The thing with the US as well is that this is a danger in the US. 275 00:13:30.920 --> 00:13:34.802 The US was one country when it was a white Christian country. 276 00:13:35.383 --> 00:13:38.305 The identity that identified the US was a white Christian identity. 277 00:13:39.045 --> 00:13:43.108 Now that we get into a minority, what's called a majority US, 278 00:13:43.488 --> 00:13:49.312 meaning that there's going to be no single group that's going to be the majority in 279 00:13:48.832 --> 00:13:49.532 that country. 280 00:13:49.952 --> 00:13:56.177 What you're going to have to deal with is the fact that there's never been a single 281 00:13:53.095 --> 00:13:56.177 large democracy that has not been, 282 00:13:56.957 --> 00:13:58.738 you know, majority of a single ethnicity. 283 00:13:59.979 --> 00:14:01.700 It is a very, very weird thing. 284 00:14:01.720 --> 00:14:08.065 And obviously, we like to live in a world where things are going to be, you know, 285 00:14:06.183 --> 00:14:08.065 hunky-dory and so going forward. 286 00:14:08.925 --> 00:14:13.148 I'm telling you right now, you go forward, like, you know, a couple, you know, 287 00:14:11.927 --> 00:14:13.148 decades into the future, 288 00:14:14.049 --> 00:14:20.453 you're going to have this fragmentation in the US unless they can find some other 289 00:14:17.311 --> 00:14:20.453 identity to fuse them together. 290 00:14:21.001 --> 00:14:22.322 It's going to be, you know, not very good. 291 00:14:22.662 --> 00:14:24.504 And the example I would put forward is India. 292 00:14:25.865 --> 00:14:30.768 The method that Modi in India is trying to fuse to get an identity in India is he's 293 00:14:29.988 --> 00:14:30.768 using religion. 294 00:14:31.228 --> 00:14:31.928 Yes. 295 00:14:31.529 --> 00:14:34.150 So he's trying to fuse a Hindu identity in India. 296 00:14:34.751 --> 00:14:37.233 And you can see the downside of that. 297 00:14:37.853 --> 00:14:44.758 Just before you go on, is there religious or faith apartheid in India at the moment, 298 00:14:42.096 --> 00:14:44.758 the way that he seems to be portrayed, 299 00:14:44.998 --> 00:14:48.781 and certainly in the Western media, as very anti-Muslim? 300 00:14:49.646 --> 00:14:50.732 Please be honest here, Viv. 301 00:14:51.916 --> 00:14:53.037 He is anti-Muslim. 302 00:14:53.177 --> 00:14:59.883 I mean, you don't preside over the murder of, I think, 2,000 plus Muslims when you 303 00:14:58.462 --> 00:14:59.883 are running a province, 304 00:14:59.963 --> 00:15:01.725 unless you basically are not brief. 305 00:15:02.405 --> 00:15:04.047 You know, there's issues. 306 00:15:04.047 --> 00:15:04.747 You know what I mean? 307 00:15:04.807 --> 00:15:06.529 2,000 people murdered under your watch. 308 00:15:06.929 --> 00:15:07.810 That is a lot of people. 309 00:15:08.130 --> 00:15:12.654 OK, and he was banned from traveling for many years until he became prime minister. 310 00:15:13.075 --> 00:15:13.775 So that is that. 311 00:15:13.855 --> 00:15:19.080 But the thing is that the only way for him, the only reason that he's really 312 00:15:17.559 --> 00:15:19.080 taking power in India. 313 00:15:19.744 --> 00:15:26.726 against the Congress, which used to be the guys that were, you know, we basically 314 00:15:22.645 --> 00:15:26.726 went and freed you from the British and therefore we run the country. 315 00:15:27.326 --> 00:15:34.128 The way he was able to fuse all these different regional parties was by saying, 316 00:15:30.827 --> 00:15:34.128 no, you're not just this Gujarati, 317 00:15:34.168 --> 00:15:37.909 you're not from Maharashtra, you're not from UP, you're Hindu. 318 00:15:38.669 --> 00:15:42.630 And that is how he forged this Hindi-Hindu identity, okay? 319 00:15:42.970 --> 00:15:44.291 And that is how he's doing things there. 320 00:15:44.671 --> 00:15:48.852 And it makes me worry about South Africa as well because you think about the ANC 321 00:15:47.672 --> 00:15:48.852 for all its... 322 00:15:49.452 --> 00:15:51.794 its negativity is a South African party. 323 00:15:52.234 --> 00:15:53.535 But what are we seeing rising right now? 324 00:15:54.136 --> 00:15:55.677 Regional tribal parties. 325 00:15:56.337 --> 00:15:57.037 You see what I mean? 326 00:15:57.478 --> 00:16:01.101 And that is the danger that happens when you have, you know, 327 00:16:01.381 --> 00:16:04.943 no single cultural identity across the entire country. 328 00:16:05.884 --> 00:16:12.769 And the danger that we are seeing in the US as well is that that's why we're having 329 00:16:09.647 --> 00:16:12.769 the rise of people like Jerry Vance and so on. 330 00:16:12.789 --> 00:16:16.491 It's because you're getting kind of like a... 331 00:16:17.752 --> 00:16:24.234 a mixed an attempted power already a route to power that goes through ethnicity which 332 00:16:22.673 --> 00:16:24.234 is the worst thing to do 333 00:16:24.814 --> 00:16:31.656 it's a very dangerous thing it's been tried many times in the past and always 334 00:16:27.675 --> 00:16:31.656 ends a tragedy and we are seeing it happen in the us right now and we are 335 00:16:31.696 --> 00:16:37.137 seeing like even in south africa i think danger of like thing that the mk is not 336 00:16:36.117 --> 00:16:37.137 jacob zuma 337 00:16:37.658 --> 00:16:39.858 is that you are trying to get a party based on 338 00:16:39.878 --> 00:16:46.816 ethnicity or building a party based on ethnicity uh which is you know a terrible 339 00:16:44.620 --> 00:16:46.816 thing in a country like David, 340 00:16:46.936 --> 00:16:48.377 gosh, lots to think about there. 341 00:16:48.777 --> 00:16:50.218 Great analysis, by the way, Viv. 342 00:16:50.278 --> 00:16:56.862 David, let's talk about the fascination that both you and I have about the US 343 00:16:54.641 --> 00:16:56.862 election process. 344 00:16:56.962 --> 00:17:00.084 We're coming down to the last few dozen days of this thing. 345 00:17:00.464 --> 00:17:01.384 It's quite incredible. 346 00:17:01.705 --> 00:17:05.527 And I saw Kamala Harris talking, I think it was last night. 347 00:17:05.827 --> 00:17:09.489 She doesn't come across as very well versed when it comes to the economy. 348 00:17:09.869 --> 00:17:11.390 She doesn't look convincing to me. 349 00:17:11.390 --> 00:17:12.110 And that worries me. 350 00:17:12.431 --> 00:17:14.332 When it comes to the economy, Trump's ahead. 351 00:17:15.032 --> 00:17:16.213 There's no doubt about it. 352 00:17:16.393 --> 00:17:19.835 And, you know, I mean, some of his policies are still repugnant. 353 00:17:19.855 --> 00:17:21.035 I mean, you know, 354 00:17:22.216 --> 00:17:29.140 just imposing taxes on or tariffs and the cost of that on the economy is enormous 355 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:29.140 because at the end of 356 00:17:29.120 --> 00:17:30.381 the day, the consumer pays. 357 00:17:33.202 --> 00:17:37.365 If you put up charges, you're not going to change and suddenly go all America. 358 00:17:37.845 --> 00:17:41.547 So there's a lot of criticism about it, but he's far more in touch with it. 359 00:17:41.747 --> 00:17:42.568 And it's. 360 00:17:43.220 --> 00:17:50.082 I must tell you, 80% of today's news is around the election, whether it's ABC, 361 00:17:48.482 --> 00:17:50.082 CBS, Fox, 362 00:17:50.222 --> 00:17:52.343 wherever you go, all with different views. 363 00:17:52.763 --> 00:17:53.463 She's ahead. 364 00:17:53.963 --> 00:17:58.624 She's ahead in many areas, particularly where it comes to women, 365 00:17:59.104 --> 00:18:02.926 where she's probably 50-36. 366 00:18:02.926 --> 00:18:04.686 And so there are gaps emerging. 367 00:18:04.806 --> 00:18:10.888 But I think her weakness, and I think a lot of people recognize it, is on the 368 00:18:09.047 --> 00:18:10.888 point that you made, is on the economy. 369 00:18:11.048 --> 00:18:11.748 She's not. 370 00:18:12.396 --> 00:18:13.676 She was a prosecutor. 371 00:18:13.776 --> 00:18:14.517 She was a lawyer. 372 00:18:14.957 --> 00:18:18.858 I don't think she's got a feel for the economy. 373 00:18:19.558 --> 00:18:22.719 And it's something where if she does come into power, 374 00:18:22.779 --> 00:18:29.521 she's going to have to obviously appoint some pretty powerful people around her to 375 00:18:28.041 --> 00:18:29.521 help explain and to 376 00:18:29.681 --> 00:18:30.381 educate her. 377 00:18:30.181 --> 00:18:33.582 But that is her soft underbelly, is the economy. 378 00:18:34.362 --> 00:18:36.823 And I don't think Trump's taking full advantage of it. 379 00:18:38.624 --> 00:18:39.324 No. 380 00:18:40.044 --> 00:18:42.526 I think he is, but he can't help himself, you see. 381 00:18:42.626 --> 00:18:45.008 I think Viv will agree with us here. 382 00:18:45.509 --> 00:18:46.569 And Viv, he can't. 383 00:18:46.770 --> 00:18:51.193 If you gave, if you, Viv, wrote a speech for Trump and said, right, 384 00:18:51.213 --> 00:18:56.918 we're going to focus on tariffs and you can explain why sometimes they're good, 385 00:18:55.777 --> 00:18:56.918 sometimes they're bad. 386 00:18:56.998 --> 00:19:03.183 John Deere is making farming equipment in Mexico and we're going to put a 200% 387 00:19:01.722 --> 00:19:03.183 tariff on it. 388 00:19:03.363 --> 00:19:07.446 You would go through it methodically with him and say, you can't really do that, Mr. 389 00:19:07.486 --> 00:19:08.186 Trump. 390 00:19:08.187 --> 00:19:09.108 It sounds good. 391 00:19:09.392 --> 00:19:16.076 to some farmer from Iowa or something, or from somewhere in the Midwest, but you 392 00:19:15.235 --> 00:19:16.076 can't do that. 393 00:19:16.676 --> 00:19:22.659 He would look at that speech, and after five minutes, he would throw it away and 394 00:19:20.238 --> 00:19:22.659 say, they're eating animals in Ohio. 395 00:19:23.219 --> 00:19:26.021 They're eating dogs and cats in Springfield. 396 00:19:26.421 --> 00:19:28.582 So what is your assessment of what's going on? 397 00:19:29.003 --> 00:19:35.246 I think the Harris debate momentum has slowly been eroded in the last two, three 398 00:19:34.726 --> 00:19:35.426 weeks. 399 00:19:36.327 --> 00:19:37.267 I think that's pretty clear. 400 00:19:37.267 --> 00:19:38.808 I think Trump knows that as well. 401 00:19:39.236 --> 00:19:46.008 and that is why he's not doing the second debate because he knows it didn't help him 402 00:19:43.123 --> 00:19:46.008 at all it doesn't make sense for him to do another debate and 403 00:19:46.048 --> 00:19:49.726 here's the thing as well i mean I think right now, look at the polls. 404 00:19:50.407 --> 00:19:54.948 Trump is probably better in these polls, even though he's trading by Harris by a 405 00:19:54.688 --> 00:19:55.388 lot, 406 00:19:55.788 --> 00:20:00.449 than he was in 2020 or 2016 by pollsters, if you think about it. 407 00:20:01.010 --> 00:20:06.431 If you look at what his odds were back then, you know, back in 2020, 2016, and so 408 00:20:06.151 --> 00:20:06.851 on, 409 00:20:06.831 --> 00:20:11.752 you would find that he's actually now, at this point in time, doing better than he 410 00:20:11.012 --> 00:20:11.752 was back then. 411 00:20:12.253 --> 00:20:18.939 Okay, the question arises is that have they adjusted polls well enough in the 412 00:20:17.014 --> 00:20:18.939 last let us say, 413 00:20:21.080 --> 00:20:21.961 since the last cycle, 414 00:20:22.441 --> 00:20:29.406 to predictively compensate for what has been significant undercounting of 415 00:20:29.446 --> 00:20:30.927 his popularity. 416 00:20:31.287 --> 00:20:34.129 So in terms of the polling, I don't know. 417 00:20:34.369 --> 00:20:35.069 I don't know. 418 00:20:35.270 --> 00:20:39.733 If the polls have adjusted, then you are seeing, you know, 419 00:20:40.454 --> 00:20:46.598 Harris probably has a slightly better chance, not a 75-25 chance, but probably 420 00:20:45.177 --> 00:20:46.598 like a 50-60%. 421 00:20:46.858 --> 00:20:48.358 the 55 60 chance to 422 00:20:48.719 --> 00:20:55.560 45 40 if they haven't then i would say he's actually ahead because the last time 423 00:20:55.220 --> 00:20:55.920 the 424 00:20:55.600 --> 00:21:02.502 polls were ridiculous i mean the cnn poll was i think eight percent under counting 425 00:20:58.801 --> 00:21:02.502 his support you know and those and you 426 00:21:02.522 --> 00:21:08.224 look back in uh 2016 they had a 99 chance some posters that uh 427 00:21:08.224 --> 00:21:15.166 you know hillary was going to win and uh like you know less than one percent chance 428 00:21:12.205 --> 00:21:15.166 that he was going to win it was really under counting 429 00:21:15.166 --> 00:21:17.063 his support And so that's the one thing. 430 00:21:17.323 --> 00:21:22.988 The second thing to understand is that, you know, when it comes to the U.S., 431 00:21:19.705 --> 00:21:22.988 historically, if you look at just how they behave, 432 00:21:23.388 --> 00:21:27.772 and I saw somebody talk about this recently, and I thought it was very 433 00:21:25.230 --> 00:21:27.772 interesting, I went back and looked at it, and it's true, that the U.S. 434 00:21:27.832 --> 00:21:31.134 president can do pretty much just one thing in his entire term. 435 00:21:31.795 --> 00:21:38.120 There's like one shot to do one thing in his entire term before good luck just 436 00:21:36.058 --> 00:21:38.120 shuts down any kind of initiative. 437 00:21:39.101 --> 00:21:44.385 Britain did one thing, Obama did one thing, Bush did one thing, you know, Biden 438 00:21:42.344 --> 00:21:44.385 has done one thing, Trump has done one thing. 439 00:21:45.366 --> 00:21:51.748 The real power of the politicians like Bush and the president, sorry, is actually 440 00:21:50.668 --> 00:21:51.748 in foreign policy. 441 00:21:52.268 --> 00:21:53.808 That's the one area the president can do stuff. 442 00:21:53.908 --> 00:21:55.029 You know what I mean? 443 00:21:55.949 --> 00:21:58.630 And I think that is the real thing to be concerned about going forward, 444 00:21:59.070 --> 00:22:04.211 is that what does Trump do as a politician in the current global environment? 445 00:22:04.952 --> 00:22:08.032 That, you know, people might say he's not going to be a blizzard against Russia. 446 00:22:08.212 --> 00:22:08.912 True. 447 00:22:08.993 --> 00:22:11.593 But he might be more against China, which is a far bigger threat. 448 00:22:11.593 --> 00:22:13.294 He might not be. 449 00:22:13.966 --> 00:22:18.308 He was wishy-washy on, you know, Israel, 450 00:22:18.948 --> 00:22:25.711 but there's other stuff he wants to do in South America that does seem to be a bit 451 00:22:24.751 --> 00:22:25.711 more aggressive than, 452 00:22:25.771 --> 00:22:26.731 you know, something in the past. 453 00:22:27.112 --> 00:22:28.352 Some stuff he wants to do on NATO. 454 00:22:28.852 --> 00:22:35.455 And those are things that he can really make a difference on, especially because 455 00:22:31.934 --> 00:22:35.455 of the fact that J.D. Vance, who's very different from Mike Pence, 456 00:22:37.436 --> 00:22:38.596 people make jokes about him and stuff. 457 00:22:39.397 --> 00:22:41.537 That guy's history is he was in the military. 458 00:22:43.158 --> 00:22:45.440 was in, I think, one of the Ivy League schools. 459 00:22:45.720 --> 00:22:48.042 He came from being dirt poor in the US. 460 00:22:48.562 --> 00:22:49.883 So he's obviously got some talent. 461 00:22:50.563 --> 00:22:54.166 And he's going to have a huge impact, I think, on foreign policy. 462 00:22:54.166 --> 00:22:56.468 I think that's going to be the big impact of the Trump thing. 463 00:22:56.468 --> 00:22:58.069 So that's my little kind of Trump thing there. 464 00:22:58.409 --> 00:22:59.650 But yeah, this election. 465 00:22:59.650 --> 00:23:01.992 The people don't want Trump. 466 00:23:02.492 --> 00:23:05.234 You know, the people don't want Trump. 467 00:23:05.774 --> 00:23:08.476 And you can pick that up here. 468 00:23:08.636 --> 00:23:09.336 In New York. 469 00:23:09.057 --> 00:23:09.917 He's got his followers. 470 00:23:10.117 --> 00:23:10.817 Well. 471 00:23:11.786 --> 00:23:13.487 Yeah, it's a good point, David. 472 00:23:13.567 --> 00:23:14.387 We've always said that. 473 00:23:14.467 --> 00:23:15.167 Yeah. 474 00:23:15.147 --> 00:23:16.268 You're not in America, David. 475 00:23:16.348 --> 00:23:17.608 You're in New York and Boston. 476 00:23:18.169 --> 00:23:18.989 That is a point. 477 00:23:19.409 --> 00:23:25.832 But there's still, it does represent probably the eastern states and the 478 00:23:24.691 --> 00:23:25.832 western states, you know. 479 00:23:27.192 --> 00:23:28.973 They still have a very powerful voice. 480 00:23:29.513 --> 00:23:35.176 And even in other areas, you know, the undecided voter, I don't think they want 481 00:23:34.715 --> 00:23:35.415 Trump. 482 00:23:35.856 --> 00:23:36.856 You know, they're tired of it. 483 00:23:37.136 --> 00:23:38.017 And I always say that. 484 00:23:38.017 --> 00:23:38.797 They just have to adjust to that. 485 00:23:39.317 --> 00:23:40.017 Mm. 486 00:23:40.158 --> 00:23:40.858 But. 487 00:23:42.347 --> 00:23:48.171 You know, the point that even Taylor Swift, you know, in a little tweet, she 488 00:23:47.130 --> 00:23:48.171 just said, you know, 489 00:23:48.191 --> 00:23:49.351 we're tired of this chaos. 490 00:23:49.872 --> 00:23:56.316 And I think to an extent, if I could sum it up, I think people in America are tired 491 00:23:53.895 --> 00:23:56.316 of the kind of chaos. 492 00:23:56.376 --> 00:24:03.261 You know, they want stability in their lives, not someone who's as divisive as 493 00:24:02.441 --> 00:24:03.261 Trump, you know, 494 00:24:03.281 --> 00:24:06.384 who gets up there and makes this hate speech. 495 00:24:07.264 --> 00:24:09.266 America's been torn apart by hate. 496 00:24:09.266 --> 00:24:09.966 You know, there's. 497 00:24:10.242 --> 00:24:13.765 Wherever you go, you know, there's this hatred, 498 00:24:13.805 --> 00:24:19.410 and you've got to get some conciliatory force in this country to try and steady it 499 00:24:19.010 --> 00:24:19.710 down. 500 00:24:19.430 --> 00:24:24.375 The interesting comment that I saw, sorry to interrupt you, David, but it's very 501 00:24:22.673 --> 00:24:24.375 important because you mentioned the word hate, 502 00:24:24.915 --> 00:24:28.899 is that he campaigns on hate and fear. 503 00:24:30.864 --> 00:24:36.266 Kamala Harris campaigns on hope and optimism for the future. 504 00:24:36.286 --> 00:24:38.806 So you've got hate versus love, essentially. 505 00:24:38.846 --> 00:24:42.067 I mean, it's a hippie thing for me to say, but it is essentially that. 506 00:24:42.387 --> 00:24:47.389 And as soon as people sit down and realise that that is it, I mean, you never see 507 00:24:46.308 --> 00:24:47.389 Trump smile, 508 00:24:48.149 --> 00:24:52.050 but you see Kamala Harris smiling and laughing and everything. 509 00:24:52.070 --> 00:24:54.651 But Trump is just like, fight, fight, fight. 510 00:24:54.651 --> 00:24:56.952 And he's got this aggressive, screwed up face. 511 00:24:57.392 --> 00:24:58.492 And it's... 512 00:24:58.512 --> 00:24:59.212 I... 513 00:24:59.472 --> 00:25:04.754 I find it quite offensive and it's not upsetting, but it certainly makes me gnash 514 00:25:03.713 --> 00:25:04.754 my teeth a bit. 515 00:25:06.134 --> 00:25:07.735 Well, you've summed it up very nicely. 516 00:25:08.015 --> 00:25:09.155 It's exactly like that. 517 00:25:09.695 --> 00:25:16.117 And I think the majority of people, you do get those, what do you call them, not 518 00:25:15.097 --> 00:25:16.117 disenfranchised, 519 00:25:16.117 --> 00:25:20.378 there's a word that I want to use, disaffected part of the population, you 520 00:25:20.158 --> 00:25:20.858 know, 521 00:25:20.418 --> 00:25:25.620 that feel that life has just left them by and they feel anger in there. 522 00:25:26.120 --> 00:25:33.063 and their souls and they want to vent it and they vent it because they find some 523 00:25:29.722 --> 00:25:33.063 hope in trump you know for whatever it is and 524 00:25:33.063 --> 00:25:39.946 i think you've got to get around that you know you there's there's so many issues 525 00:25:37.465 --> 00:25:39.946 you know the strange thing is that i know 526 00:25:39.986 --> 00:25:42.967 that october the 7th is coming up and 527 00:25:43.027 --> 00:25:50.010 i don't know what's planned there but i haven't seen any any protests of it it is 528 00:25:48.289 --> 00:25:50.010 u.n time now believe me 529 00:25:50.430 --> 00:25:55.632 you can't believe the traffic and you cannot believe you know what's happening 530 00:25:53.291 --> 00:25:55.632 uh in the city I mean, 531 00:25:55.672 --> 00:25:58.575 there's a huge number of dignitaries here and so on. 532 00:25:58.995 --> 00:26:00.716 But I haven't seen any trouble. 533 00:26:00.797 --> 00:26:03.899 I've seen no protests, no posters, nothing. 534 00:26:03.999 --> 00:26:08.283 It's just, you know, you go into Central Park and it's really nirvana. 535 00:26:08.883 --> 00:26:10.144 It's clean. 536 00:26:10.304 --> 00:26:11.085 It's quiet. 537 00:26:11.405 --> 00:26:12.886 People just getting on their lives. 538 00:26:13.227 --> 00:26:15.829 And I think that represents what they really want. 539 00:26:16.049 --> 00:26:17.650 Just get on with your life, you know. 540 00:26:18.591 --> 00:26:20.492 They don't want trouble at universities. 541 00:26:20.512 --> 00:26:24.816 They don't want these outpourings of hatred against one group. 542 00:26:25.552 --> 00:26:32.438 So I get a feeling just being around here that no one's really walking around with 543 00:26:30.856 --> 00:26:32.438 mega caps or anything 544 00:26:32.518 --> 00:26:33.218 like that. 545 00:26:32.958 --> 00:26:35.200 They're not wanting to change things. 546 00:26:36.101 --> 00:26:39.764 Yeah, I saw a lovely hat the other day, make prison great again, and it was 547 00:26:39.223 --> 00:26:39.923 orange. 548 00:26:39.764 --> 00:26:44.167 I'm going to give you a couple of prices now. 549 00:26:44.167 --> 00:26:48.451 I'm not going to go through all of them because our conversation is far too 550 00:26:47.270 --> 00:26:48.451 fascinating to do that. 551 00:26:48.751 --> 00:26:54.776 But today, process up 7.5% on the JSC, Richemont up 6.7%, luxury goods company. 552 00:26:55.116 --> 00:26:56.998 David, they must have done well in Europe as well. 553 00:26:57.558 --> 00:27:04.184 NASPERS up 6.2%, Anglo-American Platinum at 5.5%, Anglos up 5.3%, all linked to 554 00:27:04.624 --> 00:27:07.687 China. Downside, SASL down 7.4%. 555 00:27:07.727 --> 00:27:09.329 Maybe that's an ex-DIV story, I don't know. 556 00:27:09.489 --> 00:27:14.253 Telcom down 2.3%, RANET down 2.1%, Redefine down nearly 2%, 557 00:27:14.653 --> 00:27:21.419 Pick and Pay down 1.5%, and RAN doing so well at 17.18%. Viv, 558 00:27:21.419 --> 00:27:22.140 we've got to move now to a chat. 559 00:27:22.360 --> 00:27:27.323 I mean, if I make a list of people I don't like, Zuckerberg, he's on the list. 560 00:27:27.684 --> 00:27:30.546 And he's launched these new glasses last night, Viv. 561 00:27:30.546 --> 00:27:32.167 I mean, OK, they're prototypes. 562 00:27:32.447 --> 00:27:33.948 They're AI glasses. 563 00:27:34.248 --> 00:27:38.271 And he wants the world not to have a cell phone, mobile phone stuck to their ear. 564 00:27:38.851 --> 00:27:43.094 He wants you to have a pair of glasses on your nose in the future. 565 00:27:43.394 --> 00:27:44.235 What do you make of this? 566 00:27:44.255 --> 00:27:47.777 Is it another metaverse, underwhelming announcement? 567 00:27:47.817 --> 00:27:50.979 So you're not buying the Zuckerberg law? 568 00:27:51.039 --> 00:27:51.800 No, if you don't see. 569 00:27:52.416 --> 00:27:54.718 That is something that's happened, by the way, in the last couple of years. 570 00:27:54.838 --> 00:27:55.538 Have you seen that? 571 00:27:55.878 --> 00:27:57.119 Zuckerberg is now very popular. 572 00:27:57.479 --> 00:27:58.179 Oh, really? 573 00:27:58.120 --> 00:27:58.900 He's going to be cool. 574 00:27:59.320 --> 00:28:00.020 He's going to be cool. 575 00:27:59.981 --> 00:28:03.903 In fact, the shirt he wore yesterday pretty much said, all Zuck or nothing. 576 00:28:04.423 --> 00:28:07.105 That big baggy thing he was wearing with his new curly hair. 577 00:28:07.345 --> 00:28:11.867 The shirt he was wearing at that presentation, I think it was a German or 578 00:28:10.407 --> 00:28:11.867 something, said all Zuck or nothing. 579 00:28:12.348 --> 00:28:13.048 Okay? 580 00:28:12.968 --> 00:28:18.491 Anyway, so he does believe that the new form factor is going to be your glasses. 581 00:28:18.551 --> 00:28:19.652 The reason being is that... 582 00:28:20.060 --> 00:28:25.182 He thinks AI is going to be such a universal part of your life that you don't 583 00:28:23.602 --> 00:28:25.182 want to ever be without it, 584 00:28:25.202 --> 00:28:30.284 which means that you don't want to be even as disconnected as we are to our cell 585 00:28:29.864 --> 00:28:30.564 phones. 586 00:28:30.284 --> 00:28:30.984 Can you imagine that? 587 00:28:32.005 --> 00:28:35.567 The amount of screen time we have with our cell phones is not enough for Zuckerberg's 588 00:28:34.806 --> 00:28:35.567 mind. 589 00:28:36.267 --> 00:28:37.868 We have to have it all the time on. 590 00:28:38.428 --> 00:28:39.688 And here's the scary part, right? 591 00:28:40.429 --> 00:28:44.310 He is doing a business model right now that is actually very, very powerful. 592 00:28:45.191 --> 00:28:47.592 What he's done is he firstly has gone out and he's destroyed. 593 00:28:47.976 --> 00:28:51.359 The business models of places like OpenAI and Gemini, whatever they're talking 594 00:28:50.978 --> 00:28:51.678 about, 595 00:28:51.819 --> 00:28:55.001 because what he's done is he's given away the treasury for free. 596 00:28:55.582 --> 00:28:57.123 OpenAI is building an LLM. 597 00:28:57.703 --> 00:28:58.744 Zuckerberg is building an LLM. 598 00:28:59.124 --> 00:29:00.525 OpenAI charges you $20 a month. 599 00:29:00.745 --> 00:29:03.407 Zuckerberg gives it to you for nothing, right? 600 00:29:03.447 --> 00:29:07.030 If you're slightly worse than somebody else, but your stuff is free, you're 601 00:29:05.949 --> 00:29:07.030 probably going to win, okay? 602 00:29:07.530 --> 00:29:08.230 Number one. 603 00:29:08.211 --> 00:29:11.513 Number two, he is pivoting on an incredible stage. 604 00:29:11.513 --> 00:29:15.156 So like Gemini has all these problems you know about. 605 00:29:15.540 --> 00:29:18.862 You know, the African-American kind of Nazis and that kind of stuff. 606 00:29:19.202 --> 00:29:22.663 When you ask for a picture of a Nazi, they give you like a variety of different races 607 00:29:22.023 --> 00:29:22.723 and so on. 608 00:29:23.063 --> 00:29:28.966 It's because there's so much bureaucracy inside Google. What Zuckerberg has done, 609 00:29:27.606 --> 00:29:28.966 because he still runs the company, 610 00:29:28.986 --> 00:29:30.167 has these super voting shares. 611 00:29:30.487 --> 00:29:32.728 That means whatever he says at Meta goes. 612 00:29:33.628 --> 00:29:37.430 In fact, he basically caused the glasses to be built in one week. 613 00:29:38.162 --> 00:29:41.964 When he said, I like these new LLMs, only these glasses, they was done in one week. 614 00:29:42.424 --> 00:29:44.606 And he's pivoting towards the stuff in an incredible way. 615 00:29:45.006 --> 00:29:45.706 But here's the thing. 616 00:29:46.547 --> 00:29:48.227 He seems to have a team that can build the stuff. 617 00:29:48.628 --> 00:29:52.130 I don't know what it is with AI, but everybody has a team that can build the 618 00:29:51.789 --> 00:29:52.489 stuff. 619 00:29:52.890 --> 00:29:57.192 OpenAI has one, Gemini has one, Elon Musk has one, and Zuckerberg has one. 620 00:29:57.552 --> 00:30:04.116 And his latest version of Alarma can see stuff, can hear stuff. 621 00:30:04.556 --> 00:30:05.817 So it has multi-modality. 622 00:30:06.477 --> 00:30:12.898 You put that in a pair of glasses, And you can imagine just walking around the city 623 00:30:10.496 --> 00:30:12.898 where you have a basically the 624 00:30:12.898 --> 00:30:17.601 virtual assistant that can in the new in the prototype version which is obviously 625 00:30:16.080 --> 00:30:17.601 not released to the public yet 626 00:30:18.422 --> 00:30:24.626 could show you like you know these people's names in front of you can 627 00:30:21.884 --> 00:30:24.626 translate any language immediately to English in front of you. 628 00:30:25.267 --> 00:30:27.908 It is a superpower if it can work it's amazing. 629 00:30:29.289 --> 00:30:35.234 You've got a pair of glasses on your nose and what happens if there's a dog or a cat 630 00:30:32.392 --> 00:30:35.234 walking in front of you and you want to tickle the dog or the girl. 631 00:30:35.934 --> 00:30:36.994 It just, it's not real. 632 00:30:37.275 --> 00:30:43.256 David, you're, you know, you and I are probably less enlightened when it comes to 633 00:30:41.816 --> 00:30:43.256 actually wearing the tech. 634 00:30:43.697 --> 00:30:46.817 You're very good at investing in tech, but you're not going to wear it, are you? 635 00:30:46.817 --> 00:30:52.179 You're not going to have glasses on your nose all day, are you, when you're running 636 00:30:49.098 --> 00:30:52.179 in Central Park or in Corlett Drive in Johannesburg? 637 00:30:52.619 --> 00:30:53.519 Please tell me you won't. 638 00:30:54.220 --> 00:30:54.920 I beg you. 639 00:30:54.780 --> 00:31:00.302 Sunglasses, I mean, to protect my eyes, but I don't know, the possibilities are 640 00:30:59.641 --> 00:31:00.341 enormous. 641 00:31:02.963 --> 00:31:05.405 I've got to get a simpler life I really have, 642 00:31:05.445 --> 00:31:12.310 I've got to stop talking to you too my brain's frying already you know I must 643 00:31:10.488 --> 00:31:12.310 bring you back to reality 644 00:31:12.650 --> 00:31:18.795 yesterday I went to a show called Stereophonic and where, in New York? 645 00:31:19.635 --> 00:31:23.098 in New York yeah, Broadway's packed I must tell you, 646 00:31:23.218 --> 00:31:30.183 Broadway's come back and not only is it packed it's expensive but it's so come 647 00:31:29.142 --> 00:31:30.183 back in a big way, 648 00:31:30.263 --> 00:31:36.105 which is also giving an indication of how the economy is going and how people are 649 00:31:35.085 --> 00:31:36.105 returning to life. 650 00:31:36.485 --> 00:31:41.328 But Viv, I don't know if you were ever a Fleetwood Mac fan. 651 00:31:41.368 --> 00:31:42.068 Oh, yeah, huge fan. 652 00:31:42.288 --> 00:31:42.988 Rumors. 653 00:31:43.809 --> 00:31:44.509 Rumors, yeah. 654 00:31:44.589 --> 00:31:45.710 And this is a play. 655 00:31:45.830 --> 00:31:49.211 They've changed the names, I think, obviously for obvious reasons. 656 00:31:49.992 --> 00:31:53.913 But it's about the production of rumors in the studio. 657 00:31:54.754 --> 00:31:55.454 The conflict. 658 00:31:55.594 --> 00:31:57.915 conflicts of the couple. 659 00:31:57.935 --> 00:31:59.875 You know, there was Lindsay Buckingham, Stevie Nicks. 660 00:32:00.315 --> 00:32:01.216 So they've all got different... 661 00:32:01.216 --> 00:32:04.556 Oh, they were having affairs and one was breaking up, wasn't it? 662 00:32:04.556 --> 00:32:05.256 Yeah. 663 00:32:04.877 --> 00:32:07.537 It was a huge thing in the 70s, of course. 664 00:32:07.577 --> 00:32:10.878 It's an absolutely magnificent production. 665 00:32:11.418 --> 00:32:16.320 The beauty is that the actors actually play the instruments and they produce the 666 00:32:15.599 --> 00:32:16.320 incredible... 667 00:32:16.420 --> 00:32:18.960 It's not a musical by far, you know, not by far. 668 00:32:20.161 --> 00:32:24.942 Only a few songs, but they reproduce songs which sound very similar to the rumor 669 00:32:24.302 --> 00:32:25.002 songs. 670 00:32:26.163 --> 00:32:28.825 on stage, in the production, in a studio. 671 00:32:29.225 --> 00:32:31.246 But it's incredible. 672 00:32:31.266 --> 00:32:35.489 And it just takes you back to that age of the 70s where things were a lot more 673 00:32:34.909 --> 00:32:35.609 simple. 674 00:32:36.250 --> 00:32:40.073 Was that you bringing us back down to earth or rather bringing me back down to 675 00:32:39.392 --> 00:32:40.092 earth, David? 676 00:32:42.895 --> 00:32:43.595 Yes. 677 00:32:43.415 --> 00:32:44.115 Yeah, okay. 678 00:32:43.836 --> 00:32:44.976 There were no cell phones. 679 00:32:45.197 --> 00:32:51.101 The telephone rang and they never had the fancy production units or the digital 680 00:32:49.780 --> 00:32:51.101 units that they have 681 00:32:51.942 --> 00:32:52.642 here. 682 00:32:52.542 --> 00:32:59.488 For fans of old rock and roll, this is just a wonderful production. 683 00:32:59.548 --> 00:33:00.849 It is a hit. 684 00:33:00.929 --> 00:33:03.571 It's winning a lot of Tonys and that. 685 00:33:03.651 --> 00:33:06.614 But in a credit to the actors and the talent of these people. 686 00:33:06.634 --> 00:33:08.335 Especially the young people know who it is. 687 00:33:08.355 --> 00:33:14.360 Because I was listening to somebody's talk recently, and they do not know, one of the 688 00:33:11.678 --> 00:33:14.360 youngsters in the office, they do not know who Clint Eastwood was. 689 00:33:14.881 --> 00:33:16.182 Yeah, yeah. 690 00:33:16.622 --> 00:33:19.204 There's no one in the world that doesn't know who Clint Eastwood is. 691 00:33:19.244 --> 00:33:21.246 I mean, the outlaw Josie Wells, come on now. 692 00:33:22.478 --> 00:33:25.180 What has Clint Eastwood done since the year 2000? 693 00:33:25.180 --> 00:33:26.660 Well, he's 87 years old, Viv. 694 00:33:26.680 --> 00:33:32.923 I mean, what do you do when you're in your 80s? The last film he did, I think, was 695 00:33:31.842 --> 00:33:32.923 any good, 696 00:33:32.983 --> 00:33:35.884 was the film where he lived next door to the Korean family. 697 00:33:35.884 --> 00:33:38.105 It was called Gran Torino, I think, wasn't it? 698 00:33:38.705 --> 00:33:39.405 Yeah. 699 00:33:38.845 --> 00:33:40.986 The one where he was the drug mule as well. 700 00:33:41.306 --> 00:33:42.006 Yeah. 701 00:33:41.526 --> 00:33:42.367 That was another one. 702 00:33:42.407 --> 00:33:43.107 He's fantastic. 703 00:33:43.127 --> 00:33:44.487 Everyone knows who Clint Eastwood is. 704 00:33:44.487 --> 00:33:45.187 Youngsters don't. 705 00:33:48.729 --> 00:33:50.390 They don't know the Second World War. 706 00:33:51.530 --> 00:33:53.231 They have no idea. 707 00:33:53.231 --> 00:33:54.271 They have no idea. 708 00:33:54.271 --> 00:33:56.352 They don't have the Rolling Stones. 709 00:33:56.872 --> 00:33:57.572 No. 710 00:33:57.833 --> 00:33:59.193 They know absolutely nothing. 711 00:33:59.934 --> 00:34:05.056 I was just talking to some youngsters in the office today, and I said, did you know 712 00:34:04.216 --> 00:34:05.056 Fleetwood Mac? 713 00:34:05.236 --> 00:34:05.936 No idea. 714 00:34:06.517 --> 00:34:09.278 Anyway, I must tell you, the good news, though, 715 00:34:09.278 --> 00:34:14.420 is in the concert on the park across the road from where I stay is Dojo Cat on 716 00:34:13.740 --> 00:34:14.440 Saturday. 717 00:34:15.100 --> 00:34:15.800 Is what? 718 00:34:15.941 --> 00:34:16.781 Malone. 719 00:34:16.781 --> 00:34:17.481 South African. 720 00:34:17.261 --> 00:34:18.122 Post Malone. 721 00:34:19.362 --> 00:34:24.584 I think a dad South African. 722 00:34:24.584 --> 00:34:25.284 A dad South African. 723 00:34:25.205 --> 00:34:28.726 He was in that South African thing with Whoopi Goldberg. 724 00:34:29.367 --> 00:34:30.067 Yeah. 725 00:34:32.128 --> 00:34:35.029 So there's a big concert here in the park. 726 00:34:35.969 --> 00:34:37.030 It's an annual concert. 727 00:34:37.482 --> 00:34:44.424 for global citizens in there but uh so i'm i'm still looking at tickets they're 728 00:34:44.424 --> 00:34:50.626 um 500 120 you just stand around and watch screens and 729 00:34:50.646 --> 00:34:57.349 everything but um have fun thanks for bringing us down to earth that was analog 730 00:34:55.528 --> 00:34:57.349 david shapiro from assassin 731 00:34:57.429 --> 00:35:03.571 securities in new york and and Zuckerberg fan Viv Govender from Rann, 732 00:35:03.651 --> 00:35:10.594 Swiss in Johannesburg fascinating chat gentlemen thank you very much that was the 733 00:35:06.932 --> 00:35:10.594 five o'clock shadow the views and opinions expressed in these podcasts 734 00:35:10.594 --> 00:35:17.457 are those of Lindsay Williams and various contributors and do not reflect the policy 735 00:35:14.876 --> 00:35:17.457 position or opinion of any other 736 00:35:17.577 --> 00:35:23.960 agency organization employer or company associated with 737 00:35:22.079 --> 00:35:23.960 strictlybusinesspodcast.com 738 00:35:24.440 --> 00:35:31.385 assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 739 00:35:28.802 --> 00:35:31.385 entity other than the speaker or the author. 740 00:35:31.685 --> 00:35:37.574 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 741 00:35:36.292 --> 00:35:37.574 change, revision, 742 00:35:37.935 --> 00:35:39.718 and rethinking at any time. 743 00:35:40.038 --> 00:35:42.442 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.