WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:03.125 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast 2 00:00:03.405 --> 00:00:05.405 with Lindsay Williams. 3 00:00:05.185 --> 00:00:07.185 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, 4 00:00:07.266 --> 00:00:09.266 so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow. 5 00:00:09.407 --> 00:00:11.407 And as always on a Thursday, 6 00:00:10.687 --> 00:00:13.568 it's the Doubleheader Dream Team Edition with Viv Govender from 7 00:00:13.648 --> 00:00:16.148 RAND Swiss and David Shapira from SAS for 8 00:00:16.148 --> 00:00:18.148 Insecurities, both in Johannesburg. 9 00:00:18.009 --> 00:00:20.009 Now, Viv, 10 00:00:18.909 --> 00:00:21.110 last week we started with David and he was 11 00:00:21.430 --> 00:00:23.510 describing the NVIDIA results. 12 00:00:24.011 --> 00:00:26.791 And this week we're starting with you and you're going to describe 13 00:00:26.851 --> 00:00:28.851 two things. 14 00:00:27.772 --> 00:00:29.772 One, the sell-off. 15 00:00:29.192 --> 00:00:32.073 of which nvidia was a part and then 16 00:00:32.213 --> 00:00:35.094 secondly the doj which stuck its 17 00:00:35.174 --> 00:00:37.695 all in even after the the share price had 18 00:00:38.355 --> 00:00:41.316 had a bit of a shocker let's let's start 19 00:00:41.336 --> 00:00:43.336 with the sell-off first what did you make of it all 20 00:00:45.237 --> 00:00:48.058 yeah i mean it's it was in dollar terms being the biggest 21 00:00:48.078 --> 00:00:50.918 sell-off ever uh i think there's less than 30 22 00:00:50.998 --> 00:00:53.839 companies listed in the world that have a higher 23 00:00:53.899 --> 00:00:56.140 market cap than the sell-off of a billion of one day 24 00:00:57.256 --> 00:00:59.256 It was $280 billion in one day. 25 00:01:00.558 --> 00:01:02.558 One company. 26 00:01:01.059 --> 00:01:03.059 Think about it. 27 00:01:02.279 --> 00:01:04.279 One company in one day, 28 00:01:03.720 --> 00:01:05.720 $280 billion in a sell-off. 29 00:01:05.941 --> 00:01:08.603 So, yeah, it is a huge amount of money being lost. 30 00:01:08.643 --> 00:01:11.204 But, you know, also a couple of things. 31 00:01:11.224 --> 00:01:13.606 I don't think the DOJ really has a case here. 32 00:01:13.606 --> 00:01:15.606 Unless they can say, for instance, 33 00:01:14.826 --> 00:01:17.248 that these guys are kind of like, you know, 34 00:01:17.848 --> 00:01:20.730 monopolizing TSMC in some way or something, you know, 35 00:01:21.430 --> 00:01:23.430 you can't penalize someone for being the best. 36 00:01:23.852 --> 00:01:25.852 You know what I mean? 37 00:01:24.512 --> 00:01:27.434 Exactly what I said in a tweet, actually, and David might have seen it. 38 00:01:27.434 --> 00:01:29.434 But yeah, exactly right. 39 00:01:28.975 --> 00:01:31.257 And my thing said, sorry to interrupt you, it says, 40 00:01:31.677 --> 00:01:33.677 how dare you be so successful? 41 00:01:33.198 --> 00:01:35.300 And NVIDIA says, what are you talking about? 42 00:01:35.300 --> 00:01:37.901 It says, well, you've got a 95% market share. 43 00:01:37.901 --> 00:01:39.901 And they said, well, our chips are the best. 44 00:01:39.943 --> 00:01:41.964 And people pay for, 45 00:01:42.164 --> 00:01:44.164 they pay up for the best. 46 00:01:43.605 --> 00:01:45.605 And then the DOJ comes back and says, 47 00:01:46.728 --> 00:01:49.670 we want you to make crappy chips at cheaper prices so 48 00:01:49.710 --> 00:01:52.411 you can compete with your inferior 49 00:01:52.512 --> 00:01:54.512 peers. 50 00:01:53.252 --> 00:01:55.252 And it's exactly what you're saying, Viv. 51 00:01:55.494 --> 00:01:57.494 Yeah, exactly. 52 00:01:56.195 --> 00:01:58.757 I mean, look, this isn't a thing that hasn't happened in the past. 53 00:01:58.777 --> 00:02:00.777 I mean, I did a report recently on Google, 54 00:02:01.559 --> 00:02:03.559 and I said the 55 00:02:02.580 --> 00:02:05.442 DOJ is looking at Google as well for a possible breakup or some 56 00:02:05.462 --> 00:02:07.564 kind of agreement about monopoly practices. 57 00:02:08.205 --> 00:02:10.526 I said if that had to come to a choice, 58 00:02:10.526 --> 00:02:12.526 you'd rather just break up than have any kind of agreement. 59 00:02:12.228 --> 00:02:14.228 Because look at Microsoft. 60 00:02:13.509 --> 00:02:15.971 Steve Ballmer was there for over a decade, 61 00:02:16.491 --> 00:02:18.653 and the share price thing fell in that period of time. 62 00:02:18.653 --> 00:02:20.653 It was down over the decade. 63 00:02:20.275 --> 00:02:22.275 And since such a deal has taken over, 64 00:02:22.016 --> 00:02:24.897 it happens to coincide with of course the some of the restrictions being 65 00:02:24.917 --> 00:02:27.718 removed as well that share price has gone up multiples in 66 00:02:27.798 --> 00:02:30.719 less time than steve balmer basically took to get it down i think like eight 67 00:02:30.759 --> 00:02:33.739 percent of his tenure when the government gets 68 00:02:33.759 --> 00:02:36.700 involved in something like this year it's a disaster for a company 69 00:02:37.040 --> 00:02:39.641 but the one thing i can say about nvidia is that all they seem to be doing 70 00:02:40.021 --> 00:02:42.822 is making the best chip exactly they 71 00:02:42.842 --> 00:02:45.703 don't have a network effect where they basically have to have in video chips to 72 00:02:45.483 --> 00:02:47.483 do 73 00:02:45.783 --> 00:02:48.604 nvidia stuff they're not bundling stuff for instance like 74 00:02:48.744 --> 00:02:50.744 microsoft does 75 00:02:49.992 --> 00:02:52.454 where they bring on teams to take on Slack or something like that there, 76 00:02:52.935 --> 00:02:54.935 or it's the Explorer to take out Netscape. 77 00:02:55.096 --> 00:02:57.839 They're not like Google where basically, you know, 78 00:02:57.919 --> 00:03:00.761 you're using Android and paying for people to have Android in their system to 79 00:03:00.781 --> 00:03:02.781 basically, you know, 80 00:03:02.543 --> 00:03:04.543 make sure Google is the number one search engine out there. 81 00:03:05.205 --> 00:03:07.205 None of that is happening here. 82 00:03:06.066 --> 00:03:08.066 It's just the best chip. 83 00:03:07.507 --> 00:03:09.969 And unfortunately, nobody else can, or fortunately for NVIDIA, 84 00:03:10.009 --> 00:03:12.351 nobody else seems to be able to quite crack this code. 85 00:03:12.611 --> 00:03:14.611 Yeah. 86 00:03:13.492 --> 00:03:15.754 So, David, we've been talking about this, 87 00:03:16.134 --> 00:03:18.236 and we've spoken on numerous occasions about... 88 00:03:18.656 --> 00:03:20.656 Nvidia being a double-edged sword. 89 00:03:20.378 --> 00:03:22.740 You have to have it if you're a fund manager, but if you do have it, 90 00:03:22.760 --> 00:03:25.662 you're vulnerable to the sort of thing that happened on Tuesday, 91 00:03:25.702 --> 00:03:27.702 I think it was. 92 00:03:27.303 --> 00:03:29.303 So it's actually happened. 93 00:03:28.965 --> 00:03:30.965 But if you look at your graphs, 94 00:03:30.766 --> 00:03:33.388 I know you've got graphs in front of you at your fingertips, 95 00:03:33.428 --> 00:03:35.428 you'll probably say, well, 96 00:03:34.509 --> 00:03:37.352 this year it's gone from there to there and it's only come back to where it 97 00:03:37.372 --> 00:03:40.114 was in March or April or something like that. 98 00:03:40.134 --> 00:03:42.134 Have you got that sort of information? 99 00:03:41.775 --> 00:03:44.478 Just to contextualise what Viv has just been saying. 100 00:03:44.998 --> 00:03:46.998 No, well, it's exactly that. 101 00:03:46.699 --> 00:03:48.699 I'll just put up. 102 00:03:47.584 --> 00:03:49.584 Oh, hold on a sec. 103 00:03:48.644 --> 00:03:50.644 I'll try to get the chart up here. 104 00:03:50.565 --> 00:03:52.565 But, you know, in fact, 105 00:03:51.966 --> 00:03:54.107 I wrote an article for Business Day, 106 00:03:55.467 --> 00:03:57.467 which is published tomorrow. 107 00:03:56.868 --> 00:03:58.868 Yes. 108 00:03:57.248 --> 00:03:59.729 And I ended off with exactly that, 109 00:04:00.009 --> 00:04:02.009 you know, the trend is your friend. 110 00:04:02.110 --> 00:04:04.531 I put it a little more articulately than that. 111 00:04:04.611 --> 00:04:06.611 And I said, 112 00:04:04.991 --> 00:04:07.932 if everything's still pointing upwards and you 113 00:04:07.952 --> 00:04:09.952 can trust the numbers that are coming out, 114 00:04:09.733 --> 00:04:11.733 there's no need to do anything. 115 00:04:11.414 --> 00:04:13.414 You know, just stay with it. 116 00:04:13.615 --> 00:04:16.576 And, you know, it's against that. 117 00:04:16.876 --> 00:04:19.558 that I'm still staying with it. 118 00:04:19.919 --> 00:04:21.919 What's very interesting is that 119 00:04:22.441 --> 00:04:24.441 I looked at, we use FactSet, 120 00:04:24.443 --> 00:04:26.745 and FactSet have these consensus 121 00:04:26.805 --> 00:04:29.487 forecasts, and they list all the analysts, 122 00:04:29.487 --> 00:04:31.809 they take all the analysts'research and so on, 123 00:04:32.149 --> 00:04:34.149 and put it together. 124 00:04:33.710 --> 00:04:36.273 And I looked, and I can do it now, 125 00:04:36.273 --> 00:04:38.273 and I can call out all the names, 126 00:04:38.274 --> 00:04:41.217 but there's not one analyst that was 127 00:04:41.277 --> 00:04:43.277 bearish. 128 00:04:41.697 --> 00:04:44.640 There might have been two that were hold instead of 129 00:04:44.680 --> 00:04:46.680 out. 130 00:04:44.920 --> 00:04:46.920 perform or overweight or buy 131 00:04:47.601 --> 00:04:50.282 and the the price the target 132 00:04:50.342 --> 00:04:53.264 price in which the analysts are put in video is 133 00:04:53.524 --> 00:04:56.485 uh something like a hundred and you know 134 00:04:56.545 --> 00:04:58.946 50 from where they are today at 108. 135 00:04:59.446 --> 00:05:02.308 so my the point i make and i might be a 136 00:05:02.328 --> 00:05:05.009 bit cynical in what i'm saying now is 137 00:05:05.861 --> 00:05:07.861 Here you are, 138 00:05:06.521 --> 00:05:09.443 these are analysts who spend their entire time looking 139 00:05:09.463 --> 00:05:11.463 at tech shares. 140 00:05:11.424 --> 00:05:14.406 They like Viv, you know, they spend, they go into all of it, 141 00:05:14.386 --> 00:05:16.386 they understand what they're doing. 142 00:05:17.087 --> 00:05:19.989 They talk to the company and they're all positive 143 00:05:20.129 --> 00:05:22.129 on the outlook. 144 00:05:22.030 --> 00:05:24.171 What's not so positive are 145 00:05:24.632 --> 00:05:26.873 strategists from all the big firms, you know, 146 00:05:27.413 --> 00:05:30.055 who probably, you know, 147 00:05:30.095 --> 00:05:32.816 for whatever reason are 148 00:05:32.896 --> 00:05:34.896 kind of indifferent. 149 00:05:34.201 --> 00:05:37.182 and are calling the end of AI and this is a fad 150 00:05:37.202 --> 00:05:39.202 and this is, you know, 151 00:05:38.722 --> 00:05:40.722 the expectations are too high. 152 00:05:40.803 --> 00:05:42.803 So I'm saying, okay, you know, 153 00:05:42.303 --> 00:05:45.144 I'd rather go with the people I know and talk to who 154 00:05:45.284 --> 00:05:48.185 I trust from past experience and, you know, 155 00:05:48.265 --> 00:05:50.265 who I've followed for some time. 156 00:05:50.285 --> 00:05:52.526 So I think this will blow out, you know, 157 00:05:52.586 --> 00:05:54.586 this will blow over. 158 00:05:53.886 --> 00:05:56.787 I think there's enormous amount of speculation. 159 00:05:57.267 --> 00:05:59.267 You know, 160 00:05:59.208 --> 00:06:01.848 this makes Hollywood's bets look like a 161 00:06:01.948 --> 00:06:03.948 kindergarten board game, you know. 162 00:06:04.149 --> 00:06:06.149 It's you know these betting sites. 163 00:06:06.151 --> 00:06:08.352 It's it's these whoever's 164 00:06:08.732 --> 00:06:11.274 playing in this area are playing for big big 165 00:06:11.354 --> 00:06:13.354 stakes 166 00:06:12.135 --> 00:06:14.817 The other point I want to make and you know, 167 00:06:14.817 --> 00:06:16.817 we can talk about this Okay, 168 00:06:16.698 --> 00:06:19.680 so if AI is gonna run out where the 169 00:06:19.700 --> 00:06:21.700 next market leaders, you know, 170 00:06:21.581 --> 00:06:23.581 what's the next market leading? 171 00:06:22.942 --> 00:06:25.304 You know what what you're going to put your money into 172 00:06:26.625 --> 00:06:28.726 what yeah, in other words Well, 173 00:06:28.726 --> 00:06:31.708 you don't know because I mean and of course AI is going 174 00:06:31.708 --> 00:06:33.708 to be with us forever 175 00:06:32.889 --> 00:06:35.850 certainly for our lifetimes but as human beings have a funny 176 00:06:35.950 --> 00:06:38.611 way of finding something new i mean 177 00:06:39.271 --> 00:06:41.892 it's it's it's amazing you think oh gosh 178 00:06:42.212 --> 00:06:45.052 the opportunity cost of not being in nvidia and ai was 179 00:06:45.112 --> 00:06:47.793 just a fad and it's gone now what do i do no there's a 180 00:06:48.193 --> 00:06:50.854 there's always something but short term you're quite right if ai 181 00:06:50.914 --> 00:06:53.715 fizzles out then where do you go yeah i 182 00:06:53.735 --> 00:06:56.556 think i you know before i give vivoc chance now but i 183 00:06:56.556 --> 00:06:58.916 mean i'm saying we over complicate things 184 00:06:59.817 --> 00:07:01.817 you know what i mean we over 185 00:07:01.257 --> 00:07:04.198 We overcomplicate our lives with, 186 00:07:04.838 --> 00:07:06.859 I think, in the industry in which we are. 187 00:07:07.440 --> 00:07:09.440 It's actually not difficult. 188 00:07:09.500 --> 00:07:11.801 You know, when I look at companies now, you look at them, 189 00:07:12.101 --> 00:07:14.101 I understand them. 190 00:07:12.842 --> 00:07:14.842 I say, that's a good business. 191 00:07:14.182 --> 00:07:16.182 I'm going to put it away. 192 00:07:15.263 --> 00:07:17.263 I'll carry on. 193 00:07:16.143 --> 00:07:18.143 Let's see how they do. 194 00:07:17.524 --> 00:07:20.385 But we're in an industry which needs to 195 00:07:20.485 --> 00:07:22.485 move from minute to minute. 196 00:07:21.825 --> 00:07:24.606 And everybody's got to outmaneuver the person 197 00:07:24.667 --> 00:07:26.667 next to them and so on. 198 00:07:25.767 --> 00:07:28.448 It's 199 00:07:28.528 --> 00:07:30.528 quite strange. 200 00:07:29.168 --> 00:07:31.168 And I think we're going through a period like this. 201 00:07:31.009 --> 00:07:33.009 at the moment. 202 00:07:32.509 --> 00:07:34.850 I don't think Viv is someone that overcomplicates his life. 203 00:07:34.850 --> 00:07:36.850 I think he's very similar. 204 00:07:36.030 --> 00:07:38.030 See, you buy low, you sell high. 205 00:07:37.851 --> 00:07:39.911 And it's as simple as that. 206 00:07:39.951 --> 00:07:41.951 Viv, am I simplifying this? 207 00:07:42.512 --> 00:07:44.512 A couple of things. 208 00:07:43.212 --> 00:07:45.212 Firstly, let's just say AI stopped right now. 209 00:07:45.273 --> 00:07:48.154 Okay, no more AI development for the next, say, five years. 210 00:07:48.774 --> 00:07:51.535 It will still take a lot of time for the full implication of what we already 211 00:07:51.635 --> 00:07:54.395 have created to work its way through the system. 212 00:07:54.475 --> 00:07:56.475 I mean, 213 00:07:54.756 --> 00:07:57.736 there'll be jobs created and destroyed by what we 214 00:07:57.796 --> 00:07:59.796 have right now. 215 00:07:58.997 --> 00:08:00.997 So, you know... 216 00:08:00.177 --> 00:08:02.177 over the next five, ten years, 217 00:08:01.418 --> 00:08:03.680 because it hasn't fully gone 218 00:08:04.461 --> 00:08:06.461 through the economy. 219 00:08:05.682 --> 00:08:08.624 The second thing is that the 220 00:08:08.684 --> 00:08:11.466 thing that we have doing right now is we're waiting for the next round 221 00:08:11.767 --> 00:08:13.767 of these models to come out. 222 00:08:12.888 --> 00:08:15.270 And what you've got to understand is these things are working, these chips, 223 00:08:15.410 --> 00:08:17.410 this is why NVIDIA is such a powerful thing. 224 00:08:18.012 --> 00:08:20.194 Normally you have commoditization when people catch up to you. 225 00:08:20.814 --> 00:08:22.916 The thing with AI right now, the AI chips at least, 226 00:08:22.916 --> 00:08:25.278 is that they're improving it about roughly 10 times every two years. 227 00:08:25.738 --> 00:08:27.738 This is about five times faster than Moore's law, 228 00:08:27.940 --> 00:08:29.940 which is doubling every two years. 229 00:08:30.229 --> 00:08:32.229 And so what that means is that 230 00:08:33.572 --> 00:08:36.034 people have to wait for the new chip to build a new model. 231 00:08:36.374 --> 00:08:39.157 They can't just put more money into the old model to get the new stuff 232 00:08:39.217 --> 00:08:42.119 going out here, because they have to wait for the new chip, 233 00:08:42.139 --> 00:08:44.139 which is like, I said, 10 times more powerful every couple of years, 234 00:08:44.361 --> 00:08:46.361 to get the bigger model out there. 235 00:08:46.403 --> 00:08:48.805 And so we're going to get these models coming out really quickly. 236 00:08:49.285 --> 00:08:51.867 And the thing I want you guys to know as well is that it's probably going to 237 00:08:52.108 --> 00:08:54.910 accelerate, because I don't know if you saw Elon Musk's Glock 238 00:08:55.410 --> 00:08:57.410 2 that came out, right? 239 00:08:57.072 --> 00:08:59.072 It's now ranked third. 240 00:08:58.721 --> 00:09:01.083 among the AI systems out there. 241 00:09:01.443 --> 00:09:04.325 It's ahead of a whole bunch of other companies that have been in 242 00:09:04.325 --> 00:09:06.325 this situation for a long time. 243 00:09:05.826 --> 00:09:07.826 And the reason for this is quite simple. 244 00:09:07.427 --> 00:09:09.427 Masters don't care about safety. 245 00:09:09.369 --> 00:09:11.369 I mean, 246 00:09:11.090 --> 00:09:13.090 this is his trick. 247 00:09:13.251 --> 00:09:15.893 Why does he spaceship go into space and, for instance, 248 00:09:16.294 --> 00:09:19.276 Amazon can't or almost like Bezos can't or Boeing 249 00:09:19.296 --> 00:09:21.296 can't? 250 00:09:19.996 --> 00:09:21.996 It's because he just sends them up. 251 00:09:21.077 --> 00:09:23.077 They blob. 252 00:09:21.697 --> 00:09:23.697 Why do they blob? 253 00:09:22.418 --> 00:09:24.418 Try it again. 254 00:09:22.898 --> 00:09:24.898 Fix that. 255 00:09:23.399 --> 00:09:25.399 It blows up again. 256 00:09:24.339 --> 00:09:26.339 Fix that. 257 00:09:24.900 --> 00:09:26.900 Blow it up again. 258 00:09:25.660 --> 00:09:27.660 That's what he does, you know what I mean? 259 00:09:27.405 --> 00:09:29.405 That's what he's doing with AI right now. 260 00:09:28.706 --> 00:09:31.609 And he went from zero to number three or number two, depending on the rankings, 261 00:09:32.069 --> 00:09:34.069 in about three or four months. 262 00:09:33.870 --> 00:09:35.870 And he's not going to be the only one. 263 00:09:35.852 --> 00:09:37.852 There's a guy called Leon Aschenberger. 264 00:09:37.373 --> 00:09:39.373 He's a former AI guy. 265 00:09:38.815 --> 00:09:41.477 And he did a kind of a 266 00:09:41.537 --> 00:09:43.979 forecast about what to expect from AI over the next, say, 267 00:09:44.079 --> 00:09:46.079 decade or two. 268 00:09:45.420 --> 00:09:47.902 And he basically said that if this stuff gets as powerful as it is, 269 00:09:48.462 --> 00:09:50.462 it's going to be a race. 270 00:09:49.744 --> 00:09:51.744 In a race like this year, 271 00:09:50.985 --> 00:09:52.985 you either are number one or you're lost. 272 00:09:53.567 --> 00:09:56.109 And you're going to start seeing more and more guys 273 00:09:56.765 --> 00:09:58.765 starting to basically be more aggressive. 274 00:09:58.266 --> 00:10:00.266 Remember, this is just how they were created. 275 00:10:00.127 --> 00:10:02.669 DeepMind was the thing that created AI, or for Google. 276 00:10:03.549 --> 00:10:06.071 Then OpenAI was created to be safer than DeepMind. 277 00:10:07.491 --> 00:10:09.491 Then the guys from Anthropic left, 278 00:10:09.773 --> 00:10:11.773 working at OpenAI, 279 00:10:10.873 --> 00:10:13.695 left OpenAI to make Anthropic to be safer than 280 00:10:14.015 --> 00:10:16.015 OpenAI. 281 00:10:14.275 --> 00:10:16.275 You know what I mean? 282 00:10:15.836 --> 00:10:17.836 Everybody had been trying to be safer. 283 00:10:17.797 --> 00:10:20.519 OpenAI literally was started as a nonprofit for 284 00:10:20.559 --> 00:10:22.559 safety. 285 00:10:21.319 --> 00:10:24.281 Anthropic has it as number one principle to be the safest, nobody's the first 286 00:10:23.881 --> 00:10:25.881 model. 287 00:10:24.981 --> 00:10:27.783 Can you imagine those guys trying to build the safest 288 00:10:27.823 --> 00:10:29.823 model going against somebody that's willing to just blow things up? 289 00:10:31.865 --> 00:10:34.667 It's going to be really, really difficult for us to... 290 00:10:34.955 --> 00:10:36.955 to basically keep track of what's going to be 291 00:10:36.595 --> 00:10:38.595 happening. 292 00:10:38.096 --> 00:10:40.096 Another thing to mention, 293 00:10:39.156 --> 00:10:41.857 it took about a year between the time they developed GPT-4 294 00:10:42.157 --> 00:10:44.157 to the time they released it to the public. 295 00:10:44.098 --> 00:10:46.378 That whole time was about safety, right? 296 00:10:46.778 --> 00:10:48.778 It took about, 297 00:10:48.159 --> 00:10:50.219 Anthropix said they will never release the strongest model they can. 298 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:52.840 They'll always release a model that's not as strong as somebody else's. 299 00:10:53.700 --> 00:10:55.821 Grok went from zero to nothing, like I said, in three or four months. 300 00:10:56.741 --> 00:10:58.922 There is no safety testing happening there at a big scale. 301 00:10:59.262 --> 00:11:01.942 That's why you can see those pictures of Trump and Kamala 302 00:11:02.383 --> 00:11:04.383 on a plane heading into the Twin Towers. 303 00:11:06.104 --> 00:11:08.104 So the speed that we saw the last couple of years, 304 00:11:08.105 --> 00:11:10.105 just understand that is gone. 305 00:11:10.246 --> 00:11:12.246 It will not be the same. 306 00:11:11.166 --> 00:11:13.166 It will have to be faster. 307 00:11:12.567 --> 00:11:14.567 OK, understood. 308 00:11:14.127 --> 00:11:16.127 Well put. 309 00:11:15.188 --> 00:11:18.009 Your knowledge of this whole thing and the players is 310 00:11:18.169 --> 00:11:20.170 encyclopedic, Viv Govender. 311 00:11:20.370 --> 00:11:22.370 Let's come back to Earth, David. 312 00:11:21.871 --> 00:11:24.752 There's been loads of results out and there's been a couple more today as well. 313 00:11:25.212 --> 00:11:27.212 But what I want to focus on, David, 314 00:11:27.613 --> 00:11:29.613 is retail, because we've had Woolies, 315 00:11:29.934 --> 00:11:32.035 we've had ShopRite and we've had Spa. 316 00:11:32.531 --> 00:11:35.352 You see, Woolies is interesting, and everyone keeps, 317 00:11:35.652 --> 00:11:37.652 every time I say to a commentator, 318 00:11:38.073 --> 00:11:40.795 surely it's now time, this is a big grocery store, 319 00:11:41.155 --> 00:11:43.155 this is a big grocery store, 320 00:11:42.435 --> 00:11:45.217 and every single time groceries outperform 321 00:11:45.237 --> 00:11:47.898 apparel and furniture or homeware, 322 00:11:47.938 --> 00:11:50.439 whatever it is, so separately listed. 323 00:11:50.479 --> 00:11:53.300 The second thing is, ShopRite, they said, eh, 324 00:11:53.300 --> 00:11:55.300 we're no good at furniture, we'll sell it to Pepco, 325 00:11:56.281 --> 00:11:58.722 so they did that, so they're saying, stick to what we're good at, 326 00:11:59.003 --> 00:12:01.183 and Spar says, We're no good in Poland. 327 00:12:01.203 --> 00:12:03.203 It's far too complicated. 328 00:12:03.044 --> 00:12:05.044 We sell that. 329 00:12:03.905 --> 00:12:05.905 But the terms of the deal, 330 00:12:05.885 --> 00:12:08.727 someone explained it to me yesterday, are onerous, 331 00:12:08.807 --> 00:12:10.807 David. 332 00:12:09.967 --> 00:12:11.967 Yeah, yeah. 333 00:12:11.188 --> 00:12:13.188 Well, they have to take over the debt. 334 00:12:13.168 --> 00:12:15.168 Exactly. 335 00:12:13.829 --> 00:12:15.829 You know, they sell it, 336 00:12:15.649 --> 00:12:17.649 but they didn't sell the debt. 337 00:12:18.130 --> 00:12:20.351 And they could only sell it without the debt, 338 00:12:20.411 --> 00:12:22.411 which is something like, I don't know, what's it, 339 00:12:22.172 --> 00:12:24.172 three billion or something grand. 340 00:12:23.613 --> 00:12:25.613 Exactly right. 341 00:12:24.253 --> 00:12:26.253 It's an enormous amount. 342 00:12:25.413 --> 00:12:27.413 I don't know the exact term, 343 00:12:27.174 --> 00:12:29.195 but that was my simple interpretation. 344 00:12:30.087 --> 00:12:32.948 that in order to get it off their hands 345 00:12:33.548 --> 00:12:36.529 and to stop bleeding money, they had to take that. 346 00:12:36.609 --> 00:12:38.609 Now, I mean, 347 00:12:37.409 --> 00:12:40.230 that's a huge debt to bring onto your balance sheet that 348 00:12:40.270 --> 00:12:43.091 you're going to have to work out from here where things are not 349 00:12:43.131 --> 00:12:45.131 exactly great. 350 00:12:44.771 --> 00:12:47.692 So it's a company under 351 00:12:47.712 --> 00:12:49.712 a huge amount of pressure. 352 00:12:49.313 --> 00:12:51.313 And remember, Spar is not a grocer. 353 00:12:51.954 --> 00:12:53.954 It's a buying organization. 354 00:12:54.834 --> 00:12:56.834 Yes. 355 00:12:55.195 --> 00:12:57.195 I mean, it does have its own shops. 356 00:12:57.151 --> 00:13:00.053 But it mainly has franchisees or people who 357 00:13:00.113 --> 00:13:02.113 run spas. 358 00:13:00.954 --> 00:13:03.836 And what they do is they buy cheap for them 359 00:13:04.236 --> 00:13:06.236 and take a turn on what they sell. 360 00:13:06.458 --> 00:13:08.999 So, you know, Lindsay, 361 00:13:09.039 --> 00:13:12.001 when I think back, I mean, I always used to 362 00:13:13.322 --> 00:13:15.322 I was very proud of what we had achieved, 363 00:13:15.284 --> 00:13:17.284 especially in the retailers. 364 00:13:16.364 --> 00:13:18.364 But lately, you've had spa, 365 00:13:18.406 --> 00:13:20.406 you've had mass market, 366 00:13:19.487 --> 00:13:21.708 and now pick and pay just imploding. 367 00:13:22.288 --> 00:13:24.288 Yeah. 368 00:13:22.409 --> 00:13:24.409 You know, literally imploding. 369 00:13:24.550 --> 00:13:26.550 But what's happened 370 00:13:25.971 --> 00:13:28.692 And despite the fact that Choprath's numbers were slightly 371 00:13:28.772 --> 00:13:30.772 disappointing or a little down, 372 00:13:30.673 --> 00:13:32.914 there's nothing to worry about them. 373 00:13:32.974 --> 00:13:34.974 But they stand, you know, 374 00:13:35.015 --> 00:13:37.896 they are far ahead of everybody else with 375 00:13:37.996 --> 00:13:39.996 kind of 376 00:13:39.317 --> 00:13:41.818 Woolworths just in their wake, you know, 377 00:13:41.858 --> 00:13:43.858 just trying to catch up. 378 00:13:43.419 --> 00:13:46.120 You know, Woolworths has also got its issue, not on the food side, 379 00:13:46.180 --> 00:13:48.180 but certainly on the apparel side. 380 00:13:48.621 --> 00:13:50.621 Yes. 381 00:13:49.021 --> 00:13:51.021 So where do we go? 382 00:13:50.242 --> 00:13:52.463 I mean, you can't just blanket buy these things. 383 00:13:52.823 --> 00:13:55.786 you've got to be very very selective obviously spar and 384 00:13:55.806 --> 00:13:58.568 pick and pay well recently spar and pick and pay 385 00:13:58.728 --> 00:14:01.650 longer term medium to long term has been horrible 386 00:14:02.291 --> 00:14:05.073 and even even wool is it's all very good one 387 00:14:05.313 --> 00:14:08.276 is doing well but the other one drags it down as 388 00:14:08.296 --> 00:14:11.258 a company as a whole in australia of course anyway i 389 00:14:11.258 --> 00:14:13.920 don't know where do you shop viv and do you are you loyal to 390 00:14:14.161 --> 00:14:17.083 to one particular shop and therefore you know a little bit 391 00:14:17.123 --> 00:14:19.925 about it and if you were in retail on the jsc 392 00:14:20.105 --> 00:14:22.105 then you would sort of lean towards that one 393 00:14:22.647 --> 00:14:25.289 That's a ridiculously simplistic argument. 394 00:14:25.349 --> 00:14:27.349 But what do you think about retail? 395 00:14:28.711 --> 00:14:31.012 Look, I mean, I'm mostly because of allergy reasons, 396 00:14:31.192 --> 00:14:33.192 which is because of the 397 00:14:34.194 --> 00:14:36.194 allergy issues to deal with. 398 00:14:35.134 --> 00:14:37.435 But when it comes to buying retailers, 399 00:14:37.715 --> 00:14:39.957 I've been quite loyal and only buying ShopRite, quite frankly, 400 00:14:41.137 --> 00:14:43.137 both terms of like as an investment. 401 00:14:43.379 --> 00:14:45.379 And the reason for it is quite simple. 402 00:14:45.280 --> 00:14:48.221 I think that we are about to go through a massive change in the way 403 00:14:48.421 --> 00:14:50.421 shopping occurs right now. 404 00:14:50.382 --> 00:14:52.382 David can attest to this. 405 00:14:51.643 --> 00:14:54.607 the amount of like times you see those little bikes on the road with the little 406 00:14:54.607 --> 00:14:57.390 shop right sticking on the back of it delivering stuff has gone up 407 00:14:57.410 --> 00:15:00.394 dramatically you know what i mean uh if the cost 408 00:15:00.454 --> 00:15:03.157 is ridiculously low uh the convenience is there 409 00:15:03.738 --> 00:15:06.622 in that environment basically are you going to 410 00:15:06.642 --> 00:15:08.642 have five apps on your phone or you can have one 411 00:15:09.040 --> 00:15:11.040 you're probably going to have one. 412 00:15:10.321 --> 00:15:12.321 There's probably going to be, 413 00:15:11.642 --> 00:15:14.444 and ShopRite already has a loyalty system already, where you get, 414 00:15:14.464 --> 00:15:16.464 I think, a certain amount of money, 415 00:15:16.025 --> 00:15:18.025 beyond a certain amount of pricing, 416 00:15:17.926 --> 00:15:19.926 you get a free delivery effectively. 417 00:15:19.567 --> 00:15:21.567 In that environment, 418 00:15:21.268 --> 00:15:23.890 I can foresee massive consolidation in the retail 419 00:15:24.490 --> 00:15:26.490 grocery space in South Africa. 420 00:15:26.392 --> 00:15:28.392 And the biggest guy is going to win. 421 00:15:27.673 --> 00:15:29.673 And right now that is ShopRite by a mile. 422 00:15:31.355 --> 00:15:33.857 I just don't see how PicknPay or the other, 423 00:15:33.937 --> 00:15:36.619 or SPAR, especially with SPAR's model, 424 00:15:36.639 --> 00:15:38.639 can compete in this environment against the ShopRite. 425 00:15:39.953 --> 00:15:41.953 I do think in five years time, ten years time, 426 00:15:41.854 --> 00:15:44.576 we're just going to have larger share with deliveries and shoppers are going to 427 00:15:44.596 --> 00:15:46.596 dominate that. 428 00:15:46.237 --> 00:15:48.237 It's got a head start, hasn't it? 429 00:15:47.978 --> 00:15:49.978 To go down, 430 00:15:49.099 --> 00:15:51.341 Boxer and YouSave and so on, 431 00:15:51.401 --> 00:15:54.383 we have a massive population who are incredibly 432 00:15:54.483 --> 00:15:57.445 cost conscious and literally will 433 00:15:57.445 --> 00:16:00.207 go from one shop to another to save a couple of 434 00:16:00.227 --> 00:16:02.227 rand. 435 00:16:00.767 --> 00:16:02.767 That's it. 436 00:16:01.728 --> 00:16:04.230 But I think Viv's, 437 00:16:04.730 --> 00:16:07.152 things are changing, things are the consolidation. 438 00:16:07.792 --> 00:16:09.792 I can talk from a US experience 439 00:16:10.355 --> 00:16:13.017 where you have, oh, 440 00:16:13.057 --> 00:16:15.057 what's it called, you know, 441 00:16:14.718 --> 00:16:17.581 these overnight where you can phone up at 8 o'clock or 442 00:16:17.581 --> 00:16:20.383 put an order in at 8 o'clock in the evening for milk, 443 00:16:20.543 --> 00:16:22.543 lettuce, a loaf of bread, whatever it is, 444 00:16:23.025 --> 00:16:25.948 and early the next morning there's a knock on the door 445 00:16:25.948 --> 00:16:27.948 and there it is. 446 00:16:27.129 --> 00:16:29.129 You know, in a similar way, it's, 447 00:16:29.571 --> 00:16:32.434 there are incredible deliveries there, 448 00:16:32.514 --> 00:16:34.976 you know, where you don't have to, if you're a working person. 449 00:16:35.276 --> 00:16:37.276 You know, 450 00:16:35.476 --> 00:16:38.398 you don't have to run to the shops or stop off the train and go and 451 00:16:38.398 --> 00:16:40.398 buy. 452 00:16:39.318 --> 00:16:41.318 So 453 00:16:39.799 --> 00:16:42.540 I think the convenience here and, 454 00:16:42.760 --> 00:16:44.760 Viv, I must tell you, 455 00:16:44.161 --> 00:16:46.923 I live very close to Bluebird, you know, 456 00:16:46.983 --> 00:16:49.744 where you've got both Woolworths and you've got 457 00:16:50.024 --> 00:16:52.024 checkers. 458 00:16:51.165 --> 00:16:53.386 And the whole time from Bluebird, 459 00:16:53.386 --> 00:16:56.148 you just see these drivers just 460 00:16:56.268 --> 00:16:58.268 shoving out. 461 00:16:56.888 --> 00:16:58.888 And I've actually spoken to them. 462 00:16:58.969 --> 00:17:00.969 If you go down into the basement, 463 00:17:01.131 --> 00:17:03.612 I think it's the third basement down in Bluebird and that. 464 00:17:03.972 --> 00:17:06.613 There are numerous chaps, you know, 465 00:17:06.893 --> 00:17:08.893 there already. 466 00:17:08.254 --> 00:17:10.335 And you can't believe how much they deliver. 467 00:17:10.855 --> 00:17:12.855 You know, I see them, 468 00:17:12.476 --> 00:17:15.057 I've asked them and tried to get into it. 469 00:17:15.057 --> 00:17:17.978 You know, they've got, they can take, you know, four, 470 00:17:18.058 --> 00:17:20.299 five, six, maybe up to ten at a time. 471 00:17:21.020 --> 00:17:23.461 You know, ten different orders. 472 00:17:23.821 --> 00:17:26.142 And off they go, you know, and it's very, 473 00:17:26.222 --> 00:17:28.222 very slick service. 474 00:17:27.322 --> 00:17:29.322 They've even got their own football team. 475 00:17:31.464 --> 00:17:33.825 Have you heard of, talking about online deliveries, 476 00:17:34.185 --> 00:17:36.185 have you heard of a FTSE listed company? 477 00:17:36.106 --> 00:17:38.106 It's in the FTSE 250 called 478 00:17:37.887 --> 00:17:40.368 Ocado. Have either of you heard of that? 479 00:17:41.228 --> 00:17:43.228 No. 480 00:17:41.709 --> 00:17:43.709 Okay. 481 00:17:42.069 --> 00:17:44.069 Ocado was established, no, 482 00:17:43.509 --> 00:17:45.509 that's the history of who started it. 483 00:17:46.931 --> 00:17:49.692 Ocado Group BLC is a British business based in 484 00:17:49.712 --> 00:17:51.712 Hatfield, England, 485 00:17:50.712 --> 00:17:52.913 which licenses grocery technology. 486 00:17:53.353 --> 00:17:56.295 It owns a 50% share in the UK grocery retail 487 00:17:56.355 --> 00:17:58.355 business Ocado.com. 488 00:17:57.875 --> 00:17:59.875 The other 50% is owned by... 489 00:17:59.656 --> 00:18:01.656 Marks and Spencer's. 490 00:18:00.796 --> 00:18:02.796 It's listed on the LSE. 491 00:18:02.197 --> 00:18:05.038 But the interesting thing is that it said, well, 492 00:18:05.098 --> 00:18:07.938 okay, you're a competitor, Morrison's, but we'll deliver for you as well. 493 00:18:08.259 --> 00:18:10.259 So what it does, you phone Ocado. 494 00:18:10.179 --> 00:18:13.000 I've been in London with someone and you phone up 495 00:18:13.040 --> 00:18:15.881 Ocado and you can 496 00:18:15.961 --> 00:18:18.482 pick stuff from different shops and they 497 00:18:18.622 --> 00:18:21.563 service a group of four or five 498 00:18:21.963 --> 00:18:24.784 top retailers and everybody benefits 499 00:18:24.824 --> 00:18:26.824 from it. 500 00:18:25.084 --> 00:18:27.084 And I wonder if that could happen. 501 00:18:26.564 --> 00:18:28.564 In South Africa, okay, 502 00:18:27.825 --> 00:18:29.825 ShopRite at the moment does it on its own, 503 00:18:29.987 --> 00:18:32.689 but maybe someone could adopt an 504 00:18:32.689 --> 00:18:35.612 Ocado-style business model and do 505 00:18:35.652 --> 00:18:37.652 it there. 506 00:18:36.132 --> 00:18:38.534 But certainly it's been hugely successful. 507 00:18:38.534 --> 00:18:40.534 I mean, it really has. 508 00:18:39.675 --> 00:18:42.037 I mean, its listing was a massive success, 509 00:18:42.718 --> 00:18:44.718 and it does very well. 510 00:18:43.878 --> 00:18:45.878 But have a look at Ocado. 511 00:18:45.900 --> 00:18:47.900 It's a good one. 512 00:18:46.941 --> 00:18:48.941 Anyway, in the Netherlands, 513 00:18:49.643 --> 00:18:51.643 if I phone them up now, 514 00:18:51.004 --> 00:18:53.486 I'll probably get it Saturday morning. 515 00:18:53.827 --> 00:18:55.827 It's embarrassingly bad. 516 00:18:57.349 --> 00:18:59.349 David is saying overnight, 517 00:18:59.330 --> 00:19:01.330 60-60 is 60 minutes. 518 00:19:00.970 --> 00:19:02.970 It's the same hour. 519 00:19:01.671 --> 00:19:03.692 So you order 60-60, it comes to you. 520 00:19:03.692 --> 00:19:06.533 The thing is that it's about 35 rounds. 521 00:19:06.613 --> 00:19:08.613 So think about the petrol to go to the shop. 522 00:19:08.434 --> 00:19:10.434 Even if you're taking a taxi, 523 00:19:10.074 --> 00:19:12.074 35 rounds is equivalent to that. 524 00:19:11.935 --> 00:19:13.935 It comes to you at home. 525 00:19:14.816 --> 00:19:17.638 So even the thing with South Africa is that, yes, we have poor people, 526 00:19:17.638 --> 00:19:19.638 but we also have poor people that work for less money. 527 00:19:20.119 --> 00:19:22.820 But when it comes to delivery services, the delivery drivers are paid a lot less. 528 00:19:23.448 --> 00:19:25.448 So in a way, 529 00:19:25.068 --> 00:19:27.869 the one disadvantage where you're going to talk about, you know, 530 00:19:28.389 --> 00:19:30.389 poor people being cost conscious, 531 00:19:30.110 --> 00:19:32.110 there's also cheaper drivers doing things. 532 00:19:32.070 --> 00:19:34.070 But $35 is $2. 533 00:19:33.811 --> 00:19:35.811 $35 rounds is $2. 534 00:19:35.611 --> 00:19:37.611 $2 to have a delivery. 535 00:19:36.912 --> 00:19:38.912 Your house in an hour. 536 00:19:40.433 --> 00:19:42.433 And as you said, Dave. 537 00:19:41.833 --> 00:19:43.833 Just things are changing, you know. 538 00:19:44.014 --> 00:19:46.894 I don't know whether I was speaking to Lindsay or whether it was 539 00:19:46.954 --> 00:19:48.954 when we were talking last week. 540 00:19:48.715 --> 00:19:51.416 That's why I say when interest rates do come down and people 541 00:19:51.476 --> 00:19:53.476 start to spend. 542 00:19:52.760 --> 00:19:55.723 You can't go back pre-COVID or you 543 00:19:55.723 --> 00:19:58.625 can't go back and choose the companies you 544 00:19:58.685 --> 00:20:00.685 think are going to benefit. 545 00:20:00.027 --> 00:20:02.027 So much has changed. 546 00:20:01.048 --> 00:20:03.690 This is all the outcome of 547 00:20:03.770 --> 00:20:05.932 COVID, where we've got used to staying at home, 548 00:20:06.332 --> 00:20:08.615 eating at home, cooking at home, 549 00:20:09.756 --> 00:20:12.298 getting lazy, not going down to the shops. 550 00:20:12.738 --> 00:20:14.738 And all of these have developed from that. 551 00:20:15.516 --> 00:20:17.516 But habits have changed. 552 00:20:17.237 --> 00:20:19.937 And as you say, the more those habits change, 553 00:20:20.698 --> 00:20:22.698 the better the service. 554 00:20:21.738 --> 00:20:23.738 Yeah, it is going to change 555 00:20:25.439 --> 00:20:27.439 the people that benefit. 556 00:20:27.499 --> 00:20:29.499 Just before we move on to the markets, 557 00:20:29.620 --> 00:20:32.441 Ocado processes 400,000 558 00:20:33.801 --> 00:20:36.742 retail deliveries requests per week. 559 00:20:36.862 --> 00:20:38.862 And that's just in the UK. 560 00:20:38.062 --> 00:20:40.062 And it's also Europe wide as well. 561 00:20:39.883 --> 00:20:41.883 Right. 562 00:20:40.163 --> 00:20:42.163 Dollar Rand, 1773. 563 00:20:41.843 --> 00:20:44.384 British pound against the Rand, 2332. 564 00:20:44.644 --> 00:20:46.644 The Euro-Rand is 565 00:20:44.964 --> 00:20:47.647 1965, 566 00:20:47.647 --> 00:20:50.149 the Euro-Dollar 1.1085 after today's 567 00:20:50.789 --> 00:20:53.772 employment data, which David will describe in a moment. 568 00:20:53.952 --> 00:20:55.952 British Pound 1.3150, 569 00:20:55.513 --> 00:20:57.513 that's been on the charge for so long now. 570 00:20:57.475 --> 00:20:59.475 What else have we got? 571 00:20:58.236 --> 00:21:00.258 We've got the gold price at 2.506, 572 00:21:00.378 --> 00:21:02.378 which is up nearly $13 an ounce. 573 00:21:02.359 --> 00:21:04.701 Platinum up 19 to 9.31, 574 00:21:04.701 --> 00:21:06.923 Palladium at 9.35, which is up 575 00:21:07.564 --> 00:21:09.564 8. And other commodities. 576 00:21:09.325 --> 00:21:12.268 David, do you remember I sent you a graph of... 577 00:21:12.408 --> 00:21:15.050 Brent crude and I said it's about to fall off a cliff. 578 00:21:15.050 --> 00:21:17.050 Well it started, 579 00:21:15.931 --> 00:21:18.093 it's scrambling down the slope isn't it? 580 00:21:18.093 --> 00:21:20.355 I mean it's not doing very well. 581 00:21:20.435 --> 00:21:22.435 Where's my STLB? 582 00:21:21.455 --> 00:21:23.455 Oh there it is. 583 00:21:22.436 --> 00:21:24.578 Just before you get on to your observations on that, 584 00:21:25.219 --> 00:21:28.161 crude oil is up today, it's up about a percent for West Texas at 585 00:21:28.161 --> 00:21:31.123 69.96 and Brent crude oil 586 00:21:31.143 --> 00:21:33.143 which was below 73 yesterday, 587 00:21:33.646 --> 00:21:36.588 it's just coming off a bit now 73.38 588 00:21:36.968 --> 00:21:38.968 which is up nearly one percent. 589 00:21:38.369 --> 00:21:41.212 Natural gas up six percent and what else we 590 00:21:41.292 --> 00:21:43.292 got? 591 00:21:41.812 --> 00:21:43.812 Nothing really of interest. 592 00:21:42.713 --> 00:21:44.713 Copper up 1.1%, 593 00:21:44.575 --> 00:21:46.575 but still under pressure, 594 00:21:46.276 --> 00:21:48.738 $4.07 per 595 00:21:49.459 --> 00:21:51.459 pound. 596 00:21:50.560 --> 00:21:52.942 Right, the S&P 500 futures, 597 00:21:53.662 --> 00:21:55.662 massive day earlier in the week, 598 00:21:55.584 --> 00:21:57.584 suddenly turned red again. 599 00:21:56.785 --> 00:21:59.327 55.14 for the September futures, 600 00:21:59.667 --> 00:22:01.667 down about 0.3%. 601 00:22:01.349 --> 00:22:03.349 The 602 00:22:02.009 --> 00:22:04.732 US 10-year Treasury is currently... 603 00:22:05.412 --> 00:22:08.074 Not coming up on my screen, so I'll go to the South African 10-year, 604 00:22:08.134 --> 00:22:10.134 which is also not coming up. 605 00:22:09.355 --> 00:22:11.355 They don't like the capital markets invested. 606 00:22:11.637 --> 00:22:13.799 Investing.com at the moment. 607 00:22:13.879 --> 00:22:16.181 But, David, you were going to say something about Brent crude oil. 608 00:22:17.202 --> 00:22:19.202 I think 609 00:22:20.504 --> 00:22:22.646 commodities are under pressure mainly because of China. 610 00:22:22.926 --> 00:22:24.926 There's a lot of concerns about China. 611 00:22:25.568 --> 00:22:27.568 And for evidence of this, 612 00:22:27.430 --> 00:22:29.430 if you go into the European markets, 613 00:22:29.432 --> 00:22:31.673 go have a look at the luxury stocks, 614 00:22:32.134 --> 00:22:34.616 Hermes, LVMH, Richemont. 615 00:22:35.064 --> 00:22:37.165 All of those have come down dramatically. 616 00:22:37.705 --> 00:22:39.906 You know, anything that's connected with Europe, 617 00:22:40.727 --> 00:22:42.787 sorry, with China from Europe is down. 618 00:22:44.708 --> 00:22:46.708 You know, 619 00:22:44.908 --> 00:22:47.730 I'm looking at LVMH at the moment down 3.8 620 00:22:47.810 --> 00:22:49.810 percent. 621 00:22:48.270 --> 00:22:50.571 Ermias down 6.5 percent. 622 00:22:50.971 --> 00:22:52.971 L'Oreal, okay, that's holding up. 623 00:22:52.732 --> 00:22:54.913 But I'm trying to find some of the other. 624 00:22:56.313 --> 00:22:58.694 Ferrari down 2 percent, so on. 625 00:22:58.994 --> 00:23:01.796 And these have been coming down over the last couple of days quite 626 00:23:01.816 --> 00:23:03.816 dramatically. 627 00:23:02.860 --> 00:23:05.682 all associated with the downgrading of Chinese 628 00:23:05.762 --> 00:23:08.604 growth and translating 629 00:23:08.644 --> 00:23:11.626 that into much lower demand coming from 630 00:23:11.706 --> 00:23:13.706 China in particular. 631 00:23:13.528 --> 00:23:15.649 Richmond down 1.7, I just found that now. 632 00:23:16.049 --> 00:23:18.972 So it is a story and that's, you know, 633 00:23:19.032 --> 00:23:21.032 you've seen iron ore. 634 00:23:20.673 --> 00:23:23.595 The last time I looked at iron ore was around 635 00:23:23.635 --> 00:23:25.635 about 90, 636 00:23:24.015 --> 00:23:26.757 1992 in that region, 637 00:23:28.138 --> 00:23:30.138 dollars a ton. 638 00:23:29.379 --> 00:23:31.379 So I think... 639 00:23:30.980 --> 00:23:33.202 Brent is also suffering as a result of that, 640 00:23:33.262 --> 00:23:35.943 concerns about falling demand. 641 00:23:37.024 --> 00:23:39.024 Why I'm so conscious of it, 642 00:23:38.445 --> 00:23:40.967 and no one else seems to be that concerned, 643 00:23:41.227 --> 00:23:43.369 is because it affects South Africa. 644 00:23:43.949 --> 00:23:45.949 You know, where platinum prices, 645 00:23:45.810 --> 00:23:48.792 we saw Neil Frodeman's views on where palladium is going. 646 00:23:49.453 --> 00:23:52.035 And at the end, you know, at the end of the day, 647 00:23:53.435 --> 00:23:55.437 we earn a lot of tax from our miners. 648 00:23:56.017 --> 00:23:58.799 And where we've had these dramatic cuts in 649 00:23:59.300 --> 00:24:01.300 revenue. 650 00:24:00.488 --> 00:24:02.488 it's going to flow through. 651 00:24:02.149 --> 00:24:04.149 It's going to hurt us. 652 00:24:03.650 --> 00:24:05.650 So 653 00:24:04.230 --> 00:24:07.072 I know we're very excited about the local markets and 654 00:24:07.152 --> 00:24:09.894 what's happening and GNU and various other 655 00:24:09.954 --> 00:24:11.954 things, 656 00:24:10.294 --> 00:24:13.195 but that side of it really disturbs 657 00:24:13.215 --> 00:24:15.215 me. 658 00:24:14.596 --> 00:24:16.596 It's a concern that 659 00:24:17.458 --> 00:24:19.919 commodities remain where they are at the moment. 660 00:24:20.219 --> 00:24:22.561 Speaking about Africa and commodities, Viv, 661 00:24:22.941 --> 00:24:24.941 I noticed there's Africa, 662 00:24:25.362 --> 00:24:28.164 China, a shindig going on in China at the moment. 663 00:24:28.344 --> 00:24:30.344 I think, in Beijing. 664 00:24:31.045 --> 00:24:33.145 And, you know, they've come out today and said, 665 00:24:33.325 --> 00:24:35.325 I think they're pledging 666 00:24:34.966 --> 00:24:36.966 $60 billion to Africa, 667 00:24:37.967 --> 00:24:40.868 finance to Africa, over the next three years. 668 00:24:41.728 --> 00:24:43.728 Look at this, and people say, oh, isn't it great? 669 00:24:43.508 --> 00:24:45.569 You know, the relationship's never been better. 670 00:24:46.669 --> 00:24:48.669 I don't, am I being cynical, Viv, 671 00:24:48.690 --> 00:24:51.631 by saying there's only one reason that China is cozying 672 00:24:51.671 --> 00:24:53.671 up to Africa, 673 00:24:52.591 --> 00:24:55.412 and that is because they will finance 674 00:24:55.532 --> 00:24:57.532 infrastructure projects. 675 00:24:57.196 --> 00:25:00.118 and mining and resources exploration and that 676 00:25:00.158 --> 00:25:02.460 sort of thing on their terms. 677 00:25:02.480 --> 00:25:05.443 Do the communities around a new mine benefit 678 00:25:05.503 --> 00:25:07.503 like it would if, for example, 679 00:25:07.164 --> 00:25:10.086 a South African financier was going into Africa 680 00:25:10.907 --> 00:25:13.229 with great ESG credentials? 681 00:25:14.430 --> 00:25:16.430 Am I being too cynical, Viv, about 682 00:25:16.671 --> 00:25:18.671 China and Africa? 683 00:25:18.970 --> 00:25:20.970 I think you're not being slick enough. 684 00:25:20.031 --> 00:25:22.031 I think nobody, even the South African ESG, 685 00:25:21.772 --> 00:25:23.874 is going in there with good intentions in mind. 686 00:25:24.454 --> 00:25:27.397 I think Glencore has done some stuff that we can not be proud of 687 00:25:27.377 --> 00:25:29.377 as South Africans. 688 00:25:28.037 --> 00:25:30.399 You know, obviously it's not quite a South African company, but, you know, 689 00:25:30.479 --> 00:25:32.479 it is a South African run. 690 00:25:32.781 --> 00:25:35.543 I think that if you look at internationally, if you're a smaller, 691 00:25:35.824 --> 00:25:37.824 resource-rich country, 692 00:25:37.205 --> 00:25:39.587 you're not going to get many friends out there. 693 00:25:40.067 --> 00:25:42.067 A recent example was Honduras. 694 00:25:41.869 --> 00:25:43.869 He's now being sued by some company 695 00:25:44.691 --> 00:25:46.691 because of some agreements. 696 00:25:46.192 --> 00:25:48.614 And these guys have been backed by what you consider to be like... 697 00:25:48.734 --> 00:25:51.415 Like the Silicon Valley kind of like 698 00:25:51.455 --> 00:25:54.317 charitable guys like Mark and Reason and Sam Altman and those kind of guys 699 00:25:54.857 --> 00:25:57.478 have backed some endeavor in Honduras that have not bankrupt that country. 700 00:25:57.778 --> 00:25:59.778 The same thing I think is happening here in Africa. 701 00:26:00.239 --> 00:26:02.239 We can't expect anyone to be charitable. 702 00:26:02.240 --> 00:26:04.240 That's not the way the world works. 703 00:26:04.361 --> 00:26:06.361 No deal is going to be great. 704 00:26:05.762 --> 00:26:08.543 The only fear I have here or the only thing I think that has been done here, 705 00:26:08.543 --> 00:26:10.543 like you said, financing. 706 00:26:09.583 --> 00:26:12.345 We finance to build infrastructure products, but we built with Chinese 707 00:26:11.504 --> 00:26:13.504 machinery, 708 00:26:12.425 --> 00:26:15.246 Chinese labor and Chinese farmers doing the building. 709 00:26:15.922 --> 00:26:17.922 So it's kind of like, 710 00:26:17.243 --> 00:26:20.225 I think the example I'll give is there was a case a while 711 00:26:20.245 --> 00:26:22.646 back where someone was talking about Ukraine and the war in Ukraine, 712 00:26:22.726 --> 00:26:24.726 how the US is giving money to the Ukraine. 713 00:26:25.748 --> 00:26:27.748 It turned out it wasn't giving money to the Ukraine. 714 00:26:27.409 --> 00:26:29.409 It was giving money to American manufacturers 715 00:26:30.291 --> 00:26:32.291 that were delivering products to the Ukraine. 716 00:26:32.092 --> 00:26:34.092 The same thing is happening here. 717 00:26:33.073 --> 00:26:35.073 It's likely going to be 718 00:26:34.394 --> 00:26:37.355 Chinese firms getting money from the Chinese government to build 719 00:26:37.375 --> 00:26:39.375 stuff in Africa, if you know what I mean. 720 00:26:39.717 --> 00:26:41.717 And I think that is the way it's going. 721 00:26:41.478 --> 00:26:44.359 And it kind of makes sense from their point of view because the property sector 722 00:26:43.639 --> 00:26:45.639 is such a big 723 00:26:44.399 --> 00:26:47.120 deal in China and it's pretty much collapsed at the moment. 724 00:26:47.460 --> 00:26:49.901 And they need to find some way to kind of rescue those companies. 725 00:26:49.921 --> 00:26:52.741 And this might be a roundabout way to kind of bail out their own 726 00:26:52.881 --> 00:26:54.881 construction sector. 727 00:26:54.602 --> 00:26:56.602 They're trying to prop up their image as well. 728 00:26:56.783 --> 00:26:59.623 But the one thing about Africa is that 729 00:26:59.743 --> 00:27:01.743 I promise you these projects are not done. 730 00:27:02.804 --> 00:27:04.804 There's no free for lunch. 731 00:27:04.505 --> 00:27:06.505 Of course not. 732 00:27:05.825 --> 00:27:08.086 Many of those African leaders, I mean, you just… 733 00:27:08.302 --> 00:27:10.302 You just know who they are. 734 00:27:09.563 --> 00:27:11.705 You know the kind of levels of democracy they 735 00:27:11.725 --> 00:27:13.725 have. 736 00:27:12.946 --> 00:27:15.348 And probably the same as being here all the time. 737 00:27:15.708 --> 00:27:17.708 It's never done for the benefit of the country. 738 00:27:18.390 --> 00:27:20.390 Or it is done for the benefit of the country, 739 00:27:20.352 --> 00:27:23.014 but other people benefit as well along the way. 740 00:27:23.775 --> 00:27:25.775 And, you know, that's your ESG. 741 00:27:27.218 --> 00:27:29.218 It's a very worrying thing. 742 00:27:28.719 --> 00:27:30.719 The other thing is that 743 00:27:30.460 --> 00:27:32.460 I think all of these things, you know, 744 00:27:32.702 --> 00:27:35.605 the talk is very big, but the delivery is very small. 745 00:27:36.425 --> 00:27:38.425 I don't know. 746 00:27:37.546 --> 00:27:39.546 I think what happens is, Viv is right, 747 00:27:39.767 --> 00:27:42.408 and it ends up being a Chinese project done, 748 00:27:43.189 --> 00:27:46.070 and they send people out here to use all 749 00:27:46.110 --> 00:27:48.551 their equipment and so on, money and etc. 750 00:27:48.651 --> 00:27:50.692 But it's not done for free. 751 00:27:52.453 --> 00:27:54.453 They don't walk away and say, 752 00:27:54.094 --> 00:27:56.094 thank you very much and carry on. 753 00:27:57.596 --> 00:28:00.517 I've seen a few case studies of 754 00:28:00.977 --> 00:28:02.977 the way China goes in. 755 00:28:02.378 --> 00:28:05.140 brings in its own workers it's only everything you you're 756 00:28:05.140 --> 00:28:07.202 quite right sorry for being less than 757 00:28:08.463 --> 00:28:11.185 uh viciously cynical about this i shall 758 00:28:11.205 --> 00:28:13.808 amend my stance immediately the south cantonia bond 759 00:28:13.808 --> 00:28:16.370 9.19 and the us 760 00:28:16.450 --> 00:28:19.252 tenure the yield also falling in the last couple of 761 00:28:19.272 --> 00:28:22.174 days down to 3.75 having been 10 762 00:28:22.235 --> 00:28:25.097 basis points higher not so long ago have to do 763 00:28:25.197 --> 00:28:27.239 bitcoin because there are certain people that like it 56 764 00:28:27.239 --> 00:28:30.001 330 down just 765 00:28:30.061 --> 00:28:32.883 over two Winners and losers, 766 00:28:32.923 --> 00:28:35.805 David, on the JSE on your screen, and I'll give you mine in a moment. 767 00:28:36.665 --> 00:28:38.866 On my screen, I'll give you the winners. 768 00:28:38.986 --> 00:28:41.628 I see SPAR's picked up a little after 769 00:28:41.648 --> 00:28:43.648 yesterday. 770 00:28:42.128 --> 00:28:44.890 It was down 771 00:28:44.970 --> 00:28:47.511 15% at one stage yesterday, wasn't it, 772 00:28:47.752 --> 00:28:50.113 after those Polish numbers. 773 00:28:51.093 --> 00:28:53.375 Well, MTN is up 774 00:28:53.515 --> 00:28:56.296 3.9%, Sappy, Woolworths, 775 00:28:56.316 --> 00:28:58.858 SPAR, Advertec. 776 00:29:00.215 --> 00:29:02.336 Those seem to be the winners, Bitvest as well. 777 00:29:03.057 --> 00:29:05.057 In fact, they're more winners than losers, 778 00:29:04.778 --> 00:29:07.720 but we actually ended up up a 779 00:29:07.740 --> 00:29:10.162 quarter percent, but it was mainly on the industrial side. 780 00:29:10.743 --> 00:29:13.605 On the negative side, I'm a bit strange about Harmony. 781 00:29:13.645 --> 00:29:16.287 They had very, very good numbers, but 782 00:29:16.847 --> 00:29:18.847 I see they're down about three and a half. 783 00:29:18.549 --> 00:29:21.451 I'm not sure what might have disturbed them in the results, 784 00:29:21.511 --> 00:29:23.511 whether they expected more. 785 00:29:23.672 --> 00:29:25.672 But then we've got Elferman, Bytes. 786 00:29:26.070 --> 00:29:28.672 African Rainbow, Minerals, Nedbank, 787 00:29:28.712 --> 00:29:30.712 Standard Bank, Mr Price, 788 00:29:31.174 --> 00:29:33.174 all in negative territory. 789 00:29:32.715 --> 00:29:34.715 But nothing dramatic. 790 00:29:33.916 --> 00:29:35.957 You know, there's no major moves. 791 00:29:36.978 --> 00:29:38.978 I'm talking about the big companies. 792 00:29:38.539 --> 00:29:40.539 I don't know if I go look at some of the smaller caps. 793 00:29:40.901 --> 00:29:42.901 There might be more moves. 794 00:29:42.042 --> 00:29:44.042 But you can give me yours and I'll look for... 795 00:29:44.163 --> 00:29:47.085 Now you've given me all the ones, Sappy up 3.3, 796 00:29:47.085 --> 00:29:49.167 Telcom you didn't mention, 3.3 as well. 797 00:29:49.547 --> 00:29:51.547 And yeah, 798 00:29:50.488 --> 00:29:52.549 Etelta at the bottom down 2.5%. 799 00:29:52.929 --> 00:29:54.929 But you've given... 800 00:29:54.030 --> 00:29:56.030 the main ones. 801 00:29:54.550 --> 00:29:56.551 We'll come to the indices with you in a moment, David. 802 00:29:56.611 --> 00:29:59.573 But Viv, after the US jobs numbers today, 803 00:30:00.033 --> 00:30:02.033 which is, you know, they're okay, 804 00:30:01.994 --> 00:30:03.994 but they're not quite as good as we've been used to. 805 00:30:03.855 --> 00:30:06.356 I think it's, you can go back to January 806 00:30:06.396 --> 00:30:08.396 2021, 807 00:30:07.657 --> 00:30:10.318 since the numbers of this particular survey were 808 00:30:11.199 --> 00:30:13.199 in line with what we saw today. 809 00:30:13.220 --> 00:30:15.220 Is the US, Viv, 810 00:30:14.321 --> 00:30:17.062 going into a soft recession? 811 00:30:19.164 --> 00:30:21.465 I think there is indications that it might have been so. 812 00:30:22.185 --> 00:30:24.506 I think it's pretty clear right now that the Fed waited too long. 813 00:30:26.026 --> 00:30:28.527 I mean, look, this is very difficult to catch, right? 814 00:30:28.527 --> 00:30:30.527 And the Fed almost never does. 815 00:30:29.707 --> 00:30:32.308 And I think it's just another example of just how history repeats itself. 816 00:30:32.828 --> 00:30:34.828 So they waited a bit too long. 817 00:30:34.169 --> 00:30:36.169 We've seen softer job numbers. 818 00:30:35.869 --> 00:30:37.869 We had that 1 million, 819 00:30:37.450 --> 00:30:39.970 virtually 818,000, I think, job reversal, 820 00:30:40.851 --> 00:30:42.851 you know, 821 00:30:41.571 --> 00:30:43.912 come through recently where they removed that from the 822 00:30:44.432 --> 00:30:46.432 last year's estimates. 823 00:30:46.256 --> 00:30:48.518 I think it's pretty clear that the economy in the U.S. 824 00:30:48.598 --> 00:30:50.598 is weaker than anticipated. 825 00:30:50.699 --> 00:30:53.401 And I think the Fed is probably reacting, or will have to react, 826 00:30:53.581 --> 00:30:55.581 a bit more strongly than the market anticipated. 827 00:30:56.043 --> 00:30:58.925 But the weird thing is that I think right now we are in a period where bad numbers 828 00:30:58.925 --> 00:31:00.925 are bad numbers and good numbers are good numbers. 829 00:31:01.287 --> 00:31:03.287 Normally it's bad numbers, maybe good numbers, 830 00:31:02.988 --> 00:31:05.290 if there's an increased chance of a rate cut coming through. 831 00:31:05.750 --> 00:31:08.072 Right now I think the market's pricing in basically 832 00:31:09.072 --> 00:31:11.072 rate cuts for the foreseeable future. 833 00:31:11.054 --> 00:31:14.016 And I don't think they're going to be expecting a really, really bad number. 834 00:31:15.744 --> 00:31:18.185 the Federal Reserve is going to basically be cutting by more than that. 835 00:31:19.385 --> 00:31:21.385 And so I do think that if it does, 836 00:31:20.866 --> 00:31:23.387 it's not going to make too much of a difference in terms of market performance. 837 00:31:24.187 --> 00:31:26.287 So I think for the foreseeable future, 838 00:31:26.667 --> 00:31:28.667 when we see bad numbers, 839 00:31:27.788 --> 00:31:30.028 we're going to take them as bad numbers for the market as well. 840 00:31:30.288 --> 00:31:32.288 Okay. 841 00:31:30.789 --> 00:31:32.789 David, what was I going to say? 842 00:31:31.689 --> 00:31:34.350 Yes, closing indices, please, and the value traded, if you would. 843 00:31:35.610 --> 00:31:37.610 Yeah, I'll go to the value traded. 844 00:31:37.891 --> 00:31:40.751 It came to about just over 845 00:31:40.791 --> 00:31:42.832 21.5 billion. 846 00:31:43.352 --> 00:31:45.633 NASPERS, First Rand, Standard Bank, Harmony, 847 00:31:45.833 --> 00:31:48.674 Capitec are most of the big traders in there. 848 00:31:48.714 --> 00:31:50.714 Nothing outstanding. 849 00:31:49.755 --> 00:31:52.176 It's always NASPERS as they buy back their shares. 850 00:31:52.596 --> 00:31:54.596 They're always up there. 851 00:31:53.657 --> 00:31:55.657 And the banks have been very, 852 00:31:55.518 --> 00:31:58.479 very big traders in terms 853 00:31:58.519 --> 00:32:01.460 of regularly money going into 854 00:32:01.480 --> 00:32:03.480 the banks. 855 00:32:01.981 --> 00:32:03.981 Just the all-share ended. 856 00:32:03.641 --> 00:32:05.641 We actually bounced down and bounced up. 857 00:32:05.562 --> 00:32:08.463 We bounced down before the auction and bounced up after the 858 00:32:08.524 --> 00:32:10.524 auction. 859 00:32:08.824 --> 00:32:10.824 We ended up. 860 00:32:09.920 --> 00:32:11.920 0.28% at 861 00:32:11.181 --> 00:32:14.204 82147. 862 00:32:14.204 --> 00:32:16.204 The resource index down slightly down 863 00:32:16.005 --> 00:32:18.005 0.18%. 864 00:32:19.028 --> 00:32:21.710 Nothing really in the miners, 865 00:32:22.911 --> 00:32:24.911 as we mentioned. 866 00:32:23.692 --> 00:32:25.692 Banks down 0.5%. 867 00:32:25.213 --> 00:32:27.955 The overall financial index up 868 00:32:28.115 --> 00:32:30.115 0.4%. 869 00:32:29.476 --> 00:32:32.139 I think it must have been helped by some of the life insurers. 870 00:32:32.259 --> 00:32:34.259 The industrial index up 871 00:32:34.120 --> 00:32:36.120 0.8%. 872 00:32:36.422 --> 00:32:38.424 I'm not quite sure what has driven that up. 873 00:32:40.245 --> 00:32:42.245 with Richemont down on that. 874 00:32:41.505 --> 00:32:43.505 It could be nice, there's some process, 875 00:32:43.166 --> 00:32:46.047 but that's about it. 876 00:32:46.727 --> 00:32:48.727 Lindsay, 877 00:32:46.967 --> 00:32:49.909 the one segment that's doing well and it's always 878 00:32:49.969 --> 00:32:52.850 up, again, up another 1% today has been property. 879 00:32:52.890 --> 00:32:54.890 Property, yes. 880 00:32:53.590 --> 00:32:55.590 People keep telling me this. 881 00:32:54.991 --> 00:32:56.991 Yeah, yeah. 882 00:32:56.151 --> 00:32:58.752 You know, every day there's buying a property, you know, 883 00:32:59.092 --> 00:33:02.074 maybe expecting rates to come down fairly dramatically, 884 00:33:02.154 --> 00:33:04.154 which would take the, you know, 885 00:33:03.654 --> 00:33:06.275 the overdraft rates and make the rates that you're getting now on 886 00:33:06.315 --> 00:33:08.315 property fairly attractive. 887 00:33:07.956 --> 00:33:10.817 and things seem to him you know there's a level 888 00:33:10.837 --> 00:33:13.698 of improvement i don't think it's dramatic but 889 00:33:14.398 --> 00:33:17.079 uh you know we're getting better noises coming out of the 890 00:33:17.119 --> 00:33:20.059 property business but every day i look here and 891 00:33:20.459 --> 00:33:23.280 uh you know i see the the index uh in the green 892 00:33:23.880 --> 00:33:26.341 sometimes even when the overall market is down 893 00:33:27.721 --> 00:33:30.202 okay uh two questions one for each of you viv 894 00:33:30.962 --> 00:33:33.743 the let's say that somebody phones you up tomorrow and says 895 00:33:33.843 --> 00:33:36.484 uh listen mr governor i i i heard you 896 00:33:37.104 --> 00:33:39.946 talking to that uh that that wise 897 00:33:39.986 --> 00:33:42.427 man uh shapira and also that williams fellow 898 00:33:42.928 --> 00:33:45.569 and i want to give you i'm going to give you 20 899 00:33:45.629 --> 00:33:48.451 million around and i want you to build me an ai 900 00:33:48.531 --> 00:33:51.332 portfolio but with a focus on nvidia at what 901 00:33:51.392 --> 00:33:53.392 point do you say okay 902 00:33:53.053 --> 00:33:55.975 nvidia now presents good value good 903 00:33:56.135 --> 00:33:58.957 old-fashioned solid valuation uh is it when it 904 00:33:58.977 --> 00:34:01.658 comes down to half of its um recent high 905 00:34:01.718 --> 00:34:04.560 70 to 80 or something or do you say okay 906 00:34:04.860 --> 00:34:07.602 I'll start easing you into the market straight away, 907 00:34:07.682 --> 00:34:09.682 sir. 908 00:34:08.143 --> 00:34:10.143 What is your answer to this chat? 909 00:34:10.204 --> 00:34:12.204 I think, quite frankly, 910 00:34:11.145 --> 00:34:14.087 if you had to look at just where we are with NVIDIA at the moment, 911 00:34:15.108 --> 00:34:17.470 I think that it doesn't matter what NVIDIA does. 912 00:34:17.470 --> 00:34:20.392 It matters what the technology of the people that use 913 00:34:20.392 --> 00:34:22.392 NVIDIA is turning out to be like. 914 00:34:22.273 --> 00:34:24.273 If the next version of 915 00:34:25.035 --> 00:34:27.437 GPT comes out, GPT-5 comes out, or GROK 3 comes out, 916 00:34:28.458 --> 00:34:31.000 there is a significant jump, and this stuff is doing multimodal stuff. 917 00:34:31.464 --> 00:34:34.305 Or we're getting the Optimus robot announcement and this stuff 918 00:34:34.345 --> 00:34:37.286 is like, you know, I don't know if you saw the figure robot 919 00:34:38.586 --> 00:34:41.307 recently with the little video they did hugging that girl and 920 00:34:41.307 --> 00:34:43.307 whatnot. 921 00:34:42.707 --> 00:34:45.488 If those things turn out to be real, I mean, 922 00:34:45.968 --> 00:34:47.968 these things are cheap at the moment. 923 00:34:47.089 --> 00:34:49.849 If I ever hit a plateau, I think then you might see, 924 00:34:50.470 --> 00:34:53.290 if not AI being, you know, forgotten about, 925 00:34:53.651 --> 00:34:56.191 but you'll have a chance for Intel and AMD to catch up. 926 00:34:57.032 --> 00:34:59.032 In video, it lies on the fact that. 927 00:34:58.768 --> 00:35:01.731 the speed of technology improving is so fast that its competitors 928 00:35:01.871 --> 00:35:03.871 are just being left in the dust. 929 00:35:03.833 --> 00:35:06.216 If the technology improvement slows down, 930 00:35:06.916 --> 00:35:08.916 that I think would be the main thing. 931 00:35:07.957 --> 00:35:10.500 It's not about NVIDIA itself, it's about what its chips can do. 932 00:35:11.124 --> 00:35:13.124 Okay, good answer. 933 00:35:12.365 --> 00:35:14.365 David, 934 00:35:13.446 --> 00:35:16.208 you like to stick with things and you're sticking with luxury goods because 935 00:35:16.568 --> 00:35:18.568 eventually the Chinese economy, 936 00:35:18.649 --> 00:35:20.649 through various stimulatory 937 00:35:21.191 --> 00:35:23.191 processes, 938 00:35:22.152 --> 00:35:24.493 will get back to where it was and commodities will turn. 939 00:35:24.533 --> 00:35:26.815 We know it's a big cycle, the commodity cycle. 940 00:35:27.115 --> 00:35:30.097 When it's really bad, it destroys people. 941 00:35:30.578 --> 00:35:33.380 I mean, look at companies like Kumbha Iron Oil, 942 00:35:33.480 --> 00:35:36.001 for example, when it was in the 20s, for goodness sake. 943 00:35:36.242 --> 00:35:39.024 So you're going to stick with luxury 944 00:35:39.104 --> 00:35:41.104 goods. 945 00:35:39.768 --> 00:35:42.589 But if you had stuck with Aston Martin when it 946 00:35:42.609 --> 00:35:44.609 listed… No, I'm not. 947 00:35:43.309 --> 00:35:45.309 I haven't. 948 00:35:43.769 --> 00:35:45.769 No, I know you haven't. 949 00:35:44.489 --> 00:35:46.750 But if you had done and people say, well, you know, 950 00:35:46.730 --> 00:35:48.730 you can't go wrong with this. 951 00:35:47.750 --> 00:35:49.750 It's a brilliant brand and 952 00:35:49.551 --> 00:35:51.551 James Bond and everything else, 953 00:35:50.971 --> 00:35:53.952 you would have lost 96% in 954 00:35:54.092 --> 00:35:56.092 six years. 955 00:35:55.612 --> 00:35:57.673 You've got to be very careful where you put your money. 956 00:35:57.893 --> 00:35:59.893 Very, very careful. 957 00:35:59.013 --> 00:36:01.013 And for that reason, you know, 958 00:36:00.574 --> 00:36:03.534 I still like Hermes and I still like Ferrari simply 959 00:36:03.614 --> 00:36:06.015 because they're not as 960 00:36:06.655 --> 00:36:08.655 heavily exposed to China. 961 00:36:08.176 --> 00:36:10.181 And also… They make, 962 00:36:11.241 --> 00:36:13.241 they, what's the word? 963 00:36:13.042 --> 00:36:15.042 They control their production. 964 00:36:15.063 --> 00:36:17.063 They control their supply. 965 00:36:16.844 --> 00:36:18.844 Both of those companies. 966 00:36:19.046 --> 00:36:21.387 I've learned in the past where we've got 967 00:36:21.627 --> 00:36:23.627 worrying and panicking. 968 00:36:22.768 --> 00:36:24.768 You know, we sell good companies. 969 00:36:24.129 --> 00:36:27.010 You've got to learn to ride these out as well because they 970 00:36:27.090 --> 00:36:29.090 turn around faster than they've fallen. 971 00:36:29.031 --> 00:36:31.031 And that's the big worry. 972 00:36:31.273 --> 00:36:33.514 I must say I have got a concern about 973 00:36:33.714 --> 00:36:36.415 LVMH because I'm not quite sure this 974 00:36:36.476 --> 00:36:38.476 strategy. 975 00:36:37.376 --> 00:36:39.376 might work. 976 00:36:38.116 --> 00:36:40.998 When they start to go into hotels and restaurants and 977 00:36:41.038 --> 00:36:43.999 try to brand everything other than the goods for which 978 00:36:44.039 --> 00:36:46.400 they were well known, I get a bit concerned. 979 00:36:47.200 --> 00:36:49.941 So I've still got my eye on that, 980 00:36:50.041 --> 00:36:52.923 but I don't want to be, 981 00:36:53.583 --> 00:36:55.583 what's the word, 982 00:36:55.524 --> 00:36:57.985 influenced by these kind of day-to-day 983 00:36:58.085 --> 00:37:00.085 movements. 984 00:36:59.826 --> 00:37:02.807 China is a huge economy and something will be done there that 985 00:37:02.867 --> 00:37:04.867 will kind of turn it around. 986 00:37:05.328 --> 00:37:07.328 OK, jolly good. 987 00:37:06.128 --> 00:37:08.970 Gentlemen, thanks for your extended time this evening. 988 00:37:08.990 --> 00:37:10.990 Thanks very much for your insights. 989 00:37:10.531 --> 00:37:12.531 Viv Govender is from Ransuisse. 990 00:37:12.132 --> 00:37:14.793 David Shapiro from Sasson Securities, both from Johannesburg. 991 00:37:14.793 --> 00:37:16.793 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 992 00:37:16.494 --> 00:37:19.256 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of 993 00:37:19.296 --> 00:37:22.217 Lindsay Williams and various contributors and 994 00:37:22.237 --> 00:37:24.237 do not reflect the policy, 995 00:37:23.558 --> 00:37:26.199 position or opinion of any other agency, 996 00:37:26.440 --> 00:37:28.440 organisation, 997 00:37:27.520 --> 00:37:30.382 employer or company associated with 998 00:37:30.422 --> 00:37:32.422 StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 999 00:37:32.623 --> 00:37:34.623 Assumptions made on the analyses... 1000 00:37:34.624 --> 00:37:37.548 are not reflective of the position of any other entity 1001 00:37:37.928 --> 00:37:39.928 other than the speaker or the author. 1002 00:37:39.871 --> 00:37:42.374 And since we are critically thinking human beings, 1003 00:37:42.734 --> 00:37:45.057 these views are always subject to change, 1004 00:37:45.337 --> 00:37:47.901 revision and rethinking at any time. 1005 00:37:48.201 --> 00:37:50.624 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.