WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast

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with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day.

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And so it's time for the five o'clock
shadow.

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And as always on a Thursday,

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it's the doubleheader Dream Team edition
with Viv Govender

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from Rands Swiss and David Shapiro from
Sassfin

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Securities in Johannesburg.

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Now, many, many years ago,

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when David Shapiro first started on the
JSC,

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the old Johannesburg Stock Exchange in the
centre of town,

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Diagonal Street,

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one of the things he would look forward to
was...

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Because there were so many gold mines

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listed, 30 to 40, I don't know how many it
was,

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but lots of them.

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It probably looked forward to reserves
updates and trading

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updates and results coming out because
that shaped the

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fortune of the market.

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Viv Govender and myself, on the other
hand,

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probably have grown up looking for

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pronouncements from the US Federal
Reserve.

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GDP numbers, jobs numbers,

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inflation numbers very recently have
become terribly,

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terribly important.

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But one of the things started to focus.

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market participants'minds.

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And that is the set of results from a
particular company

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that has a 95% monopoly in the production
of

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artificial intelligence chips.

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And we know the name of the company.

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It's called

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NVIDIA. And its results came out last
night

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after the market closed, immediate fall of
7%,

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8%.

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It's 8% in the share price.

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Market's recovering today from that.

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And it was inevitable that it did.

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But one line really struck me,

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and that was...

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Having blockbuster numbers is no longer
good

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enough for investors.

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And I thought, well, what is good enough
then?

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Viv, I'm going to start with you on this
one.

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Numbers, first of all, good, bad,
indifferent, better,

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worse, what?

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In any other company, good.

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But this is a company that's added over,
I'd call this basically,

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well over a trillion,

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I think almost $2 trillion in the last few
months

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here, you know, in less than a year.

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So for a company like that there,

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you're looking at a situation in which You
know,

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currently the valuation is what is it
about $3 trillion?

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And it was it went up 150% over

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the last basically year.

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So we have that kind of increase in
valuations,

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even the spectacular numbers that NVIDIA
has produced

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is not enough to make the market you know,
entirely happily.

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That being said, the share price is only
down a couple percent.

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Still, if you had to look at it for the
month today, for the last month,

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for August alone, it's up 10%,

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9.5%, 9.6%.

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So yeah, results are, for any other
company, great.

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But it's all about valuation.

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And this company is incredibly expensive
at the moment,

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with a PE ratio of about 71.

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That being said, one more thing to add
here.

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It's very interesting looking at these
things.

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Demand is still very strong.

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The situation, they have a problem.

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The problem is they can't produce enough.

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There's some issues with supply.

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And also, interestingly enough, Jensen
Wong,

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the guy that runs NVIDIA.

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And this is the weird thing.

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I don't know if you guys, I told you guys
this before.

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But Jensen Wong, the guy that runs NVIDIA,
And Lisa Su,

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the woman that runs AMD, which is like the
second competitor,

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are first cousins.

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Oh, so it's a family affair, in other
words.

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But Jason Wong has an incredible life
story.

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I think at one point in time, he was a
boss by cleaning toilets and stuff.

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It's all in his bio.

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But he's very all in on things.

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He hasn't always been right.

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He was all in on crypto and he's all in
AI.

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So what he's also doing is that in fact,

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NVIDIA is taking equity stakes in some AI
startups as well.

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So it's almost turning itself into an AI
ETF.

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And demand, like I said, is still super
strong.

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The big question, I mean, literally the
$64 trillion question,

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I'm not exaggerating when I say the
trillion dollar question,

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is the fact that, is the question whether
or not,

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will the next round of these LLMs be

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as much better or have as much improvement
as the previous

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round does?

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How many more cranks do you have in this
basically,

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in this scaling up technology?

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If it is, we could add, you know,

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These valuations are totally justified.

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If we see the next round of,

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it was GTPT5 coming out, or whatever they
call it,

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Orion, Strawberry, whatever they call the
new version they're going to bring out.

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When Grok 3,

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when Llama 3 comes out and whatever it may
be.

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Are we going to be seeing, you know,

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the new version being as much better as

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the old version was?

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You know what I mean?

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Or its predecessor?

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If that is true, totally justified.

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If it is not, if we are hitting the top of
scaling,

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if we are picking off all these
valuations, it's beat for...

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Nvidia, beautiful Microsoft,

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a lot of these guys are going to come down
very strongly.

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David, you said to me on Monday,

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and this was repeated because you said it
to Wayne McCurry as well,

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apparently.

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You said,

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you can show me these numbers when they
come out.

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You said this on Monday, Tuesday, whatever
it was.

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When these numbers come out,

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you can show them to me and I won't have a
clue how the

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market will interpret them.

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It could be 10% up, 10% down.

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And was that the case?

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Did you have a look at them?

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Were they too complicated?

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Were they too convoluted?

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What happened?

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No, they weren't at all.

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And they were superb results.

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I mean, as Viv said at the opening, any
other company.

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I mean, if you look at them in absolute
terms, I mean,

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it's an incredible number.

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And particularly when this company has
come

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from, you know,

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over the last couple of years.

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And the product's good.

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And as he said,

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Jensen Wong said, you know,

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we're going to be selling lots and lots of
these

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Blackwell chips later on.

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Blackwell, I think.

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I don't understand how they made up,

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but I do believe that it's a better chip
in the

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sense that you use less electricity and
you can use the

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same hardware and process more data and so

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on.

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My point,

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when I look at it,

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at the moment it's running two laps ahead
of its

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competitors.

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They might catch up.

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NVIDIA might tie up.

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But I think it's become an

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obsession in the market.

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Yes.

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You know what I mean?

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It's an absolute obsession.

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It's almost Trump versus Harris.

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You've got two sides that are going at
each other.

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The bears get angry because they

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want the share to come down.

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There's massive short positions there.

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On the other hand,

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there are those that like it and are
buying it and

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believe in it.

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So we're in the middle.

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And I think today's performance,

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I've been watching it,

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and everything is up today.

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The markets are incredibly strong.

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We've got a good GDP number out of the
United States.

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Everything's pointing towards the U.S.

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economy doing well.

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And the one stock that's down is NVIDIA.

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Why?

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Because of this absolute emotion

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around it.

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The bears don't want to capitulate yet.

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They're going to say, we're going to show
you.

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We're going to show you.

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We're going to go even further, more
shorts,

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more shorts.

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And so we're getting this fight and you
just watch on the sidelines and

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say, okay.

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Whatever, but I think this year,

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the other thing, Lindsay,

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I listened to quite a few analysts as

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well.

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Yes.

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And the majority are along,

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saying buy and weakness, you know,

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with a target price 140, 150,

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even higher.

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And we're not talking about small houses.

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You know, it's not some isolated analyst
or

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Hindenburg there who's trying to make a
name for themselves.

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But, you know, some of the big houses, you
know.

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I'm saying the analyst that we talked to
as

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well from UBS in Singapore

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is bullish and continues to remain.

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And I listened to UBS this morning as
well.

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The same thing.

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So I said, OK, I'm going along with this.

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I'm happy with what I see.

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But, you know, Viv is right.

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I think there will be a time where we say,
OK, we've had enough.

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It's time to go look somewhere else.

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Yeah, the spoilsports,

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the bears in the market, I presume they're
talking in their book.

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There was one chap that said,

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I'm not sure that this momentum can
continue.

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I'm not sure that they can maintain this
monopoly.

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And 95% is technically a monopoly.

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And I'm not sure that the share price

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valuation can be justified.

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So obviously saying we think it's going to
come down.

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But there must be a graveyard somewhere
with people that

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have shorted NVIDIA over the years.

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One, one.

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comment for this you'll appreciate and i
won't mention

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anybody's name because i like the man but
i

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received last night because i'd made a
comment

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talking on the radio uh

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because uh jensen wrong had sold some
shares i

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said you know he's also entitled to buy a
hamburger and

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chips meaning listen you know sometimes
you are

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allowed to cash in a bit to do something
you want to buy

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you want to buy a new motor car or
something you know

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it

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depends but i got a a um

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you

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a podcast or a speech that went on for 30
minutes,

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you know, doing the same as the Hindenburg

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research, you know,

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trying to find conspiracy theories about,
you know,

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that's what we're up against.

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I just, okay.

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So that's people out there got incredible

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emotions about something.

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So it's a company, man.

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You know, you don't like it, sell it.

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You don't have to get, you know, we don't
have to get emotive.

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We don't have to get involved physically,

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mentally and everything.

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It's just another.

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It's just another listed business.

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Yeah, and let the people enjoy its
success.

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Stop trying to pick holes in it.

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Stop trying to be clever and calling the
top of the

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market.

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It's just nonsense.

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Go with the momentum.

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And when it turns, you might miss the
first few percent,

258
00:09:24.985 --> 00:09:27.747
but then you can start to look at
offloading

259
00:09:27.987 --> 00:09:29.987
a little bit.

260
00:09:28.867 --> 00:09:30.867
I don't understand it.

261
00:09:29.688 --> 00:09:31.688
People are so impatient and so petty.

262
00:09:31.969 --> 00:09:34.451
Viv, you're neither impatient nor petty.

263
00:09:34.891 --> 00:09:37.152
If you're a big money manager, asset
manager,

264
00:09:37.332 --> 00:09:40.054
and you're mainly involved in US equities.

265
00:09:40.354 --> 00:09:42.495
This presents a problem for you, not just
NVIDIA,

266
00:09:42.575 --> 00:09:45.536
but also the other mega tech stocks and
also some of

267
00:09:45.516 --> 00:09:47.877
the pharma companies that produce weight
loss drugs.

268
00:09:48.437 --> 00:09:50.437
You have to be in them,

269
00:09:50.138 --> 00:09:52.419
even though the valuations are quite
stretched.

270
00:09:52.959 --> 00:09:55.820
You have to be in them because if you're
not in them, your peers are in them.

271
00:09:55.840 --> 00:09:57.840
And when they go up,

272
00:09:56.960 --> 00:09:59.642
you're going to start to fall back in the
performance table.

273
00:10:00.182 --> 00:10:02.182
But on the other hand,

274
00:10:00.922 --> 00:10:03.583
if you are in them and they fall and they
can fall

275
00:10:03.903 --> 00:10:05.903
because they're so stretched.

276
00:10:05.624 --> 00:10:07.887
then you're leaving your investors,

277
00:10:08.208 --> 00:10:10.208
your clients vulnerable.

278
00:10:09.690 --> 00:10:11.690
It's a double-edged sword, isn't it?

279
00:10:11.393 --> 00:10:13.393
I just wonder.

280
00:10:12.033 --> 00:10:14.878
It was like the NASPERS process days of
the JSE

281
00:10:14.998 --> 00:10:17.101
when they were collectively, I think,

282
00:10:17.161 --> 00:10:19.161
something like 25%.

283
00:10:18.943 --> 00:10:20.943
It's a conundrum, Viv.

284
00:10:21.765 --> 00:10:24.106
Look, I mean, not to like talk my own
book,

285
00:10:24.127 --> 00:10:26.748
but I do run one of the portfolios I run
is an AI portfolio.

286
00:10:27.288 --> 00:10:29.288
And NVIDIA is my biggest position.

287
00:10:28.489 --> 00:10:30.489
It wasn't the biggest when I started off.

288
00:10:30.230 --> 00:10:32.230
I just haven't sold it since I bought it.

289
00:10:32.131 --> 00:10:34.372
And it's turned out to be my biggest
position by, you know,

290
00:10:34.933 --> 00:10:36.933
a little bit here.

291
00:10:36.614 --> 00:10:38.895
And it's, you know,

292
00:10:39.015 --> 00:10:41.156
done over 170% in the last year for me.

293
00:10:41.957 --> 00:10:44.839
Because of, yeah, it's done that well.

294
00:10:45.659 --> 00:10:48.181
But I do think we have to be aware of
certain things.

295
00:10:48.181 --> 00:10:50.181
I mean, you know.

296
00:10:49.305 --> 00:10:51.305
We always say, look at history.

297
00:10:50.846 --> 00:10:53.047
Most people look at history, look back to
the year 2000, or not,

298
00:10:53.027 --> 00:10:55.748
the year 1947,

299
00:10:55.748 --> 00:10:57.748
1950.

300
00:10:57.288 --> 00:10:59.288
Right about there, because that's after
World War II.

301
00:10:58.849 --> 00:11:00.849
That's when they look back at history.

302
00:11:00.130 --> 00:11:02.130
They have a 70-year history.

303
00:11:01.230 --> 00:11:03.230
But looking back at the longer term,

304
00:11:02.931 --> 00:11:05.772
where we do have these gigantic

305
00:11:06.072 --> 00:11:08.072
technological revolutionaries,

306
00:11:07.112 --> 00:11:09.112
what I would expect out there is sailing.

307
00:11:09.673 --> 00:11:11.854
Sailing turned a little country off the
coast of

308
00:11:12.254 --> 00:11:14.796
Europe, England, into the world's
superpower.

309
00:11:16.556 --> 00:11:18.556
If you look at all of history, you would
have never thought

310
00:11:18.557 --> 00:11:21.198
it's possible for a tiny little nation,
you know,

311
00:11:21.458 --> 00:11:24.419
like it was, to be this dominant over the
world, you know,

312
00:11:24.439 --> 00:11:26.439
bigger than the Roman Empire.

313
00:11:25.819 --> 00:11:27.819
And it was all about technology.

314
00:11:27.119 --> 00:11:29.119
If this technology is real,

315
00:11:28.800 --> 00:11:31.360
the valuations and the expectations we
have of what a company

316
00:11:31.461 --> 00:11:33.781
can be worth is just out the window.

317
00:11:34.181 --> 00:11:36.622
It could be something like, you know,
turning it, you know,

318
00:11:37.422 --> 00:11:39.903
a $10 plus trillion valuation on Nvidia

319
00:11:40.303 --> 00:11:42.564
is not out of the limits if this thing is
real.

320
00:11:42.624 --> 00:11:44.624
Because what happens is then you get into

321
00:11:45.524 --> 00:11:47.805
a basically money for IQ kind of
situation.

322
00:11:49.342 --> 00:11:51.342
If you have more money, you can buy more
chips.

323
00:11:50.943 --> 00:11:52.943
The more chips will give you a higher IQ.

324
00:11:52.524 --> 00:11:54.524
The higher IQ earns you more money from
your AI.

325
00:11:54.626 --> 00:11:56.626
That's what it is.

326
00:11:55.526 --> 00:11:57.526
And that becomes a feedback loop.

327
00:11:57.067 --> 00:12:00.029
And the guy that basically provides the
chips is the one that's guaranteed to make

328
00:11:59.409 --> 00:12:01.409
money all the

329
00:12:00.049 --> 00:12:02.049
way through.

330
00:12:01.090 --> 00:12:03.090
And I think that's what is happening right
now.

331
00:12:02.691 --> 00:12:05.613
That's the belief system they have in the
tech market right now.

332
00:12:05.994 --> 00:12:07.994
And

333
00:12:06.594 --> 00:12:09.516
NVIDIA is not like some of these like
cryptocurrencies or whatever that

334
00:12:09.556 --> 00:12:11.678
went up in national evaluation, but
there's nothing basic.

335
00:12:12.038 --> 00:12:14.038
They do a $50 billion buyback,

336
00:12:14.039 --> 00:12:16.081
$5 billion buyback, share buyback.

337
00:12:16.513 --> 00:12:18.513
They are printing money hand over first.

338
00:12:19.735 --> 00:12:22.596
So, oh, but this is a very profitable
business.

339
00:12:22.997 --> 00:12:25.478
The only question is whether that this
profitability justifies the

340
00:12:25.518 --> 00:12:27.518
$3 trillion valuation.

341
00:12:28.220 --> 00:12:30.220
So that is the only question I'll ever
get.

342
00:12:29.781 --> 00:12:32.262
As a business, it's doing incredibly well.

343
00:12:32.962 --> 00:12:34.962
It's doing incredibly well.

344
00:12:34.723 --> 00:12:37.185
Sorry to interrupt.

345
00:12:38.726 --> 00:12:40.726
One last thing.

346
00:12:39.726 --> 00:12:42.528
This is not going to take five years to
find out whether this is real or not.

347
00:12:43.148 --> 00:12:45.148
It's going to happen within the next...

348
00:12:44.965 --> 00:12:46.965
I would say six months to nine months.

349
00:12:46.746 --> 00:12:48.746
By the first quarter of next year,

350
00:12:48.947 --> 00:12:50.947
you will know what GPT-5 looks like.

351
00:12:50.787 --> 00:12:53.609
You will know what the next level of GROK,
I think the level four,

352
00:12:53.709 --> 00:12:56.690
GROK-3, GPT-5, CLOB-4, whatever it's going
to be.

353
00:12:57.590 --> 00:13:00.151
These things will be out by this first
quarter of next year.

354
00:13:01.032 --> 00:13:03.032
The problem we have here,

355
00:13:01.892 --> 00:13:04.293
as the chief technology officer of

356
00:13:04.553 --> 00:13:07.455
Microsoft said this, we are the
exponential curve,

357
00:13:07.815 --> 00:13:09.815
right?

358
00:13:08.475 --> 00:13:10.475
The exponential curve is AI.

359
00:13:10.036 --> 00:13:12.337
The problem is that we are limited by
hardware.

360
00:13:12.337 --> 00:13:14.337
So we only take...

361
00:13:13.737 --> 00:13:15.778
a reading of this exponential curve every

362
00:13:16.878 --> 00:13:19.199
couple of years because that's when the
hardware shifts up to the next level.

363
00:13:20.139 --> 00:13:22.280
And we're going to want to get the next
point of that curve.

364
00:13:22.740 --> 00:13:25.541
We kind of know what a good point looks
like, what a bad point looks like,

365
00:13:26.181 --> 00:13:28.181
and we're going to see, like I said,

366
00:13:27.501 --> 00:13:29.501
within basically the next six months,

367
00:13:29.762 --> 00:13:31.762
what the next point looks like.

368
00:13:30.902 --> 00:13:32.943
And we'll know for certain, overwiped or
not.

369
00:13:33.183 --> 00:13:35.183
It's not going to be a question.

370
00:13:35.243 --> 00:13:37.243
Okay.

371
00:13:35.924 --> 00:13:37.924
David, you wanted to say something.

372
00:13:38.084 --> 00:13:40.145
I just think, you know, listening to Viv,

373
00:13:40.661 --> 00:13:42.661
Yeah, he's right.

374
00:13:41.942 --> 00:13:43.942
I mean, this is nothing new.

375
00:13:43.142 --> 00:13:45.142
But the beauty is that

376
00:13:45.624 --> 00:13:48.165
I don't know how much money Viv has got
and how much he

377
00:13:48.205 --> 00:13:50.205
controls.

378
00:13:49.166 --> 00:13:51.166
But I promise you,

379
00:13:49.946 --> 00:13:52.868
for what I and I'm okay.

380
00:13:52.928 --> 00:13:54.928
I've got a nice business.

381
00:13:54.589 --> 00:13:56.589
I press one button, we're out.

382
00:13:56.410 --> 00:13:58.410
You know, that's it.

383
00:13:58.191 --> 00:14:00.191
I don't have to labor over it.

384
00:14:00.512 --> 00:14:02.512
Let's get out.

385
00:14:02.013 --> 00:14:04.013
Done.

386
00:14:03.174 --> 00:14:06.095
That's relative to where

387
00:14:06.195 --> 00:14:08.195
we are.

388
00:14:06.816 --> 00:14:08.816
And that's why I like to

389
00:14:09.129 --> 00:14:12.091
I don't think we have to make decisions
yet on the PEs or

390
00:14:12.111 --> 00:14:14.111
anything.

391
00:14:12.451 --> 00:14:15.374
And when it comes back, we might give it
back.

392
00:14:15.834 --> 00:14:17.834
Or you said it, I think, Lindsay.

393
00:14:17.335 --> 00:14:19.335
Give it back a few points.

394
00:14:18.956 --> 00:14:20.956
Are we gone?

395
00:14:19.957 --> 00:14:21.957
Okay.

396
00:14:20.217 --> 00:14:22.439
You know, we're up so much.

397
00:14:22.499 --> 00:14:25.401
I promise you, Viv bought these at 10
cents.

398
00:14:25.461 --> 00:14:28.163
I mean, $10 at the moment, relative,

399
00:14:28.163 --> 00:14:31.145
because it's split a couple of times, 120.

400
00:14:31.666 --> 00:14:34.508
He's got a margin there that's as big as
the Indian

401
00:14:34.628 --> 00:14:36.628
Ocean.

402
00:14:41.892 --> 00:14:44.654
very good okay so we're sticking with
we're not panicking we're not

403
00:14:44.694 --> 00:14:47.195
being naysayers we're not being uh

404
00:14:47.395 --> 00:14:50.157
predictors of doom and gloom we just stay
with the

405
00:14:50.217 --> 00:14:53.018
thing it's a brilliant company there
hasn't been a company like it in the

406
00:14:53.058 --> 00:14:55.940
last few years i can't even think of a
comparison i can

407
00:14:55.980 --> 00:14:58.781
think of you know the microsoft and the
apples of this world yeah

408
00:14:58.861 --> 00:15:01.783
brilliant but this thing has captured the
imagination like no

409
00:15:01.903 --> 00:15:04.885
company i've ever seen in my career now

410
00:15:04.945 --> 00:15:06.945
then david let's cut

411
00:15:05.885 --> 00:15:08.387
come back down to earth and talk about the
jse

412
00:15:08.768 --> 00:15:11.730
uh today blue label impala i can't
remember san

413
00:15:11.770 --> 00:15:14.613
lem or santan had a trading update but one
i had one yeah

414
00:15:15.194 --> 00:15:17.996
the trading updates on numbers but anyway
i don't really want to talk

415
00:15:18.036 --> 00:15:20.839
about them too much i want to talk about
one that you know quite

416
00:15:20.879 --> 00:15:23.541
well because it was it's split the
original

417
00:15:23.581 --> 00:15:26.123
company founded by your mate brian joffey

418
00:15:26.604 --> 00:15:29.486
as split and we got bid vest in south
africa bid corp the

419
00:15:29.506 --> 00:15:31.648
international operation food distribution
etc

420
00:15:32.389 --> 00:15:34.389
What a set of numbers.

421
00:15:33.350 --> 00:15:36.313
I mean, they said in the opening, you
think, oh,

422
00:15:36.353 --> 00:15:38.353
goodness me, these numbers are not going
to be good.

423
00:15:37.914 --> 00:15:40.816
It said because of this, this, this, and
the economic that,

424
00:15:40.896 --> 00:15:42.896
and this, the other.

425
00:15:41.717 --> 00:15:44.219
In other words, really quite gloomy stuff.

426
00:15:44.760 --> 00:15:46.760
And then they say we increased our revenue
by

427
00:15:46.601 --> 00:15:48.601
15.1%.

428
00:15:48.143 --> 00:15:50.425
Incredible numbers for a company like
that.

429
00:15:52.346 --> 00:15:54.346
There's a story there.

430
00:15:54.087 --> 00:15:56.087
And, you know, I mean,

431
00:15:56.128 --> 00:15:58.928
I know Brian very well from my

432
00:15:59.329 --> 00:16:01.329
old Greensight days and everything.

433
00:16:01.109 --> 00:16:03.109
And I grew with the company.

434
00:16:02.730 --> 00:16:04.730
And when I say I grew, I wasn't.

435
00:16:04.050 --> 00:16:06.050
I was an outsider looking in.

436
00:16:05.931 --> 00:16:07.931
There's a story I'll tell you about it.

437
00:16:07.991 --> 00:16:10.592
But what we learned from this

438
00:16:10.672 --> 00:16:13.413
operation, from both Bitvest and

439
00:16:13.933 --> 00:16:16.454
Bitcore, was management.

440
00:16:18.271 --> 00:16:20.393
I was talking to Wayne last night, the
DNA,

441
00:16:20.633 --> 00:16:22.633
the DNA of management,

442
00:16:23.355 --> 00:16:25.355
good practices all the way.

443
00:16:25.537 --> 00:16:28.119
And that's exactly how they've run this
operation.

444
00:16:28.259 --> 00:16:30.421
Bernard is a superb manager as well.

445
00:16:30.761 --> 00:16:32.761
This is not complicated.

446
00:16:32.223 --> 00:16:35.165
What they do is they get food and they
deliver it

447
00:16:35.205 --> 00:16:37.205
to a restaurant.

448
00:16:37.047 --> 00:16:39.047
I mean, how difficult is that?

449
00:16:39.008 --> 00:16:41.110
They get cheese or they put…

450
00:16:41.970 --> 00:16:43.971
little sugar things, you know, they get
those made,

451
00:16:44.011 --> 00:16:46.712
those things that you tear open and put
into your coffee.

452
00:16:47.153 --> 00:16:49.153
It's not a complicated business.

453
00:16:48.793 --> 00:16:50.793
It's just a very,

454
00:16:50.654 --> 00:16:52.654
very well-run business.

455
00:16:52.755 --> 00:16:55.676
So you're not going to get AI-type returns
out of

456
00:16:55.676 --> 00:16:57.676
this, but you're going to get solid,

457
00:16:57.537 --> 00:17:00.358
good numbers on a persistent basis.

458
00:17:00.778 --> 00:17:02.919
And a dividend, which I think was up 16%,

459
00:17:02.999 --> 00:17:05.400
wasn't it?

460
00:17:05.440 --> 00:17:07.440
Yeah.

461
00:17:06.161 --> 00:17:08.161
And it's a nice dividend.

462
00:17:07.681 --> 00:17:09.681
It gives you a very good return.

463
00:17:09.482 --> 00:17:11.903
The other point is even if you look at
Bitvest,

464
00:17:11.943 --> 00:17:14.245
the DNA exists in that business.

465
00:17:14.285 --> 00:17:16.546
They don't do anything stupid.

466
00:17:16.546 --> 00:17:19.487
The last stupid thing that Joffrey did was
he bought

467
00:17:20.428 --> 00:17:23.349
Adcorp Ingram 10 years ago

468
00:17:23.369 --> 00:17:25.369
at 75.

469
00:17:24.130 --> 00:17:26.130
Still hasn't made his money back.

470
00:17:25.431 --> 00:17:27.431
But, I mean,

471
00:17:26.991 --> 00:17:28.991
that's the last silly thing they did.

472
00:17:28.892 --> 00:17:31.554
But they all get out of it and they'll
work their way

473
00:17:31.794 --> 00:17:33.794
from it.

474
00:17:33.055 --> 00:17:35.055
And I just say that tongue-in-cheek.

475
00:17:34.636 --> 00:17:37.357
But I think that's the point that I

476
00:17:37.417 --> 00:17:39.417
really want to bring across.

477
00:17:38.738 --> 00:17:40.738
It's.

478
00:17:39.342 --> 00:17:42.144
you know well breweries was like that in
the same

479
00:17:42.204 --> 00:17:45.167
way you know what i mean sab they just got

480
00:17:45.347 --> 00:17:48.129
solid good manager and they train up these

481
00:17:48.249 --> 00:17:51.192
people and they've got the same culture
that goes

482
00:17:51.312 --> 00:17:54.134
right through the business so i think if
you

483
00:17:54.154 --> 00:17:56.636
wanted to explain it that's the best way
to explain it

484
00:17:57.017 --> 00:17:59.017
yeah good

485
00:17:58.838 --> 00:18:01.420
and the other thing is about these numbers
before we move on to

486
00:18:01.901 --> 00:18:04.583
market prices is that the growth was

487
00:18:04.643 --> 00:18:07.405
organic they didn't go out buying
companies in germany or the

488
00:18:07.465 --> 00:18:09.465
netherlands or whatever

489
00:18:08.626 --> 00:18:11.188
It was purely internal growth.

490
00:18:11.288 --> 00:18:13.589
And again, that comes down to management,
David.

491
00:18:14.570 --> 00:18:16.570
Totally.

492
00:18:15.430 --> 00:18:17.430
Absolutely.

493
00:18:19.773 --> 00:18:21.773
You know, they don't do something.

494
00:18:21.174 --> 00:18:24.035
If it doesn't fit, they leave it alone.

495
00:18:25.116 --> 00:18:27.177
If it's not the right price, leave it
alone.

496
00:18:27.537 --> 00:18:29.537
And even

497
00:18:28.958 --> 00:18:31.420
Bitvest, which is now expanding offshore,

498
00:18:31.940 --> 00:18:34.842
if you see the businesses, they kind of
bolt on businesses.

499
00:18:35.022 --> 00:18:37.022
You know.

500
00:18:35.542 --> 00:18:37.542
They're not going into anything new.

501
00:18:37.123 --> 00:18:39.424
It fits into the existing operations,

502
00:18:39.464 --> 00:18:42.426
whether it's cleaning toilets in a
building or whatever,

503
00:18:43.266 --> 00:18:45.988
the Steiner-type

504
00:18:48.349 --> 00:18:50.349
health situation.

505
00:18:51.511 --> 00:18:53.912
So it's a good operation,

506
00:18:54.032 --> 00:18:56.032
and I wish people could learn from it,

507
00:18:55.633 --> 00:18:57.633
and I wish other businesses could learn.

508
00:18:58.115 --> 00:19:00.716
And you also have to understand management
as well.

509
00:19:01.236 --> 00:19:03.236
Joffrey was there to build a legacy.

510
00:19:03.237 --> 00:19:05.237
He wasn't there.

511
00:19:04.650 --> 00:19:07.632
to fill his bank with options or to fill
his

512
00:19:07.672 --> 00:19:09.672
back pocket with options.

513
00:19:09.333 --> 00:19:11.333
He did well.

514
00:19:10.293 --> 00:19:13.075
I'm not complaining, but it was, you know,

515
00:19:13.095 --> 00:19:15.095
he wanted to build a legacy.

516
00:19:14.916 --> 00:19:16.916
And I think that legacy continues.

517
00:19:17.838 --> 00:19:19.838
Okay.

518
00:19:18.138 --> 00:19:20.138
Well summarized, David.

519
00:19:19.018 --> 00:19:21.018
Thank you for that.

520
00:19:20.159 --> 00:19:22.380
Now I shall summarize the markets.

521
00:19:22.900 --> 00:19:25.562
Where the dollar round is nice and steady
ahead of what is

522
00:19:25.602 --> 00:19:28.143
essentially a long weekend in the United
States for America.

523
00:19:28.484 --> 00:19:30.484
Incidentally,

524
00:19:28.984 --> 00:19:31.865
this week has been relatively quiet
outside of NVIDIA

525
00:19:32.226 --> 00:19:35.059
because We've been sandwiched between two
public holidays,

526
00:19:35.119 --> 00:19:37.939
one in London on Monday and one in the
United States the

527
00:19:38.019 --> 00:19:40.019
coming Monday this weekend,

528
00:19:40.180 --> 00:19:42.901
where everybody gets in cars and gets on
aeroplanes.

529
00:19:43.381 --> 00:19:46.182
And this is a signal of the end of the US

530
00:19:46.382 --> 00:19:48.382
holiday season.

531
00:19:47.622 --> 00:19:49.622
Labour Day on Monday,

532
00:19:48.922 --> 00:19:51.863
everyone starts drifting back to work from
the Hamptons and the

533
00:19:51.883 --> 00:19:53.883
Bahamas.

534
00:19:52.683 --> 00:19:54.683
That's my theory anyway.

535
00:19:53.744 --> 00:19:56.324
OK, dollar round, 1777,

536
00:19:56.405 --> 00:19:59.365
British pound against the round, 2338.

537
00:19:59.365 --> 00:20:01.526
Euro round, 1968.

538
00:20:01.886 --> 00:20:04.087
Euro dollar, 1.1075.

539
00:20:04.087 --> 00:20:06.087
That was 1.12 a couple of days ago.

540
00:20:06.309 --> 00:20:09.030
So the euro losing ground against the
dollar.

541
00:20:09.050 --> 00:20:11.050
You know why?

542
00:20:09.671 --> 00:20:11.671
Why is that?

543
00:20:10.191 --> 00:20:12.191
Because of GDP?

544
00:20:10.812 --> 00:20:12.812
Because they talk about rate cuts, yeah.

545
00:20:12.172 --> 00:20:15.114
They talk about rate cuts, I think,

546
00:20:15.194 --> 00:20:17.194
shortly in the euro.

547
00:20:16.275 --> 00:20:18.275
So I think that's why it's weak and slow.

548
00:20:18.216 --> 00:20:20.216
Okay, thank you for that.

549
00:20:19.377 --> 00:20:21.538
British pound against the dollar, 1.3160.

550
00:20:22.098 --> 00:20:24.098
Bell price, that's doing all right.

551
00:20:23.859 --> 00:20:26.261
It's up 20 bucks to 25.22.

552
00:20:26.701 --> 00:20:28.701
Platinum for once.

553
00:20:28.394 --> 00:20:31.377
And Palladium for once going up $13 up for
platinum to

554
00:20:31.377 --> 00:20:33.377
$9.47.

555
00:20:33.078 --> 00:20:35.640
And Palladium $9.70 up

556
00:20:35.780 --> 00:20:37.780
$36.

557
00:20:37.542 --> 00:20:40.324
The oil price now suddenly jumped again.

558
00:20:40.324 --> 00:20:43.127
We had that bit of a flurry because of the
eastern

559
00:20:43.607 --> 00:20:46.109
Libyan oil fields being shut down

560
00:20:46.169 --> 00:20:48.169
temporarily.

561
00:20:46.750 --> 00:20:48.750
And I thought, well, that was just a flash
in the pan.

562
00:20:48.611 --> 00:20:51.394
And they're sitting around the table and
resolving their differences.

563
00:20:51.454 --> 00:20:53.454
Two governments, of course, in Libya.

564
00:20:53.055 --> 00:20:55.055
Brent Crudeau, $80.22,

565
00:20:55.257 --> 00:20:57.257
up bang on 2%.

566
00:20:56.882 --> 00:20:58.882
And West Texas crude, $76.43,

567
00:20:59.904 --> 00:21:01.904
up just over 2.5%.

568
00:21:02.105 --> 00:21:04.105
And what else have we got?

569
00:21:02.906 --> 00:21:04.906
Copper had a bad day yesterday,

570
00:21:04.867 --> 00:21:07.369
and it's having another one today, 1.9%
weaker,

571
00:21:07.489 --> 00:21:09.670
just below $4.14 per

572
00:21:10.171 --> 00:21:12.171
pound.

573
00:21:11.051 --> 00:21:13.051
Nothing else really to speak of there.

574
00:21:13.012 --> 00:21:15.534
S&P 500 futures really looked

575
00:21:15.614 --> 00:21:18.256
terrible after the NVIDIA results
yesterday.

576
00:21:18.556 --> 00:21:20.556
I think they went down to something like,

577
00:21:20.577 --> 00:21:22.577
I think they went down to...

578
00:21:23.044 --> 00:21:25.044
55.20 or something.

579
00:21:24.886 --> 00:21:26.886
They're now back up

580
00:21:26.127 --> 00:21:28.669
56.53, which is up three quarters

581
00:21:29.069 --> 00:21:31.069
of a percent.

582
00:21:30.250 --> 00:21:32.431
The US 10-year Treasury bond yield,

583
00:21:32.431 --> 00:21:34.431
3.89 percent.

584
00:21:34.913 --> 00:21:36.913
And the South African 10-year yield,

585
00:21:36.674 --> 00:21:39.296
9.32 percent.

586
00:21:39.797 --> 00:21:41.797
Also jumping a bit.

587
00:21:41.338 --> 00:21:44.160
And as for Bitcoin, well, it's back above

588
00:21:44.560 --> 00:21:47.342
60s, just below 61,000, up around about

589
00:21:48.003 --> 00:21:50.003
3 percent.

590
00:21:49.608 --> 00:21:51.608
Viv, apart from all your AI stuff,

591
00:21:51.069 --> 00:21:53.530
do you have a domestic portfolio as well

592
00:21:54.010 --> 00:21:56.010
on behalf of clients?

593
00:21:56.891 --> 00:21:58.972
You have to because you do Regulation 28
business,

594
00:21:58.972 --> 00:22:00.972
you have to have something local.

595
00:22:01.633 --> 00:22:03.633
That being said, you know,

596
00:22:02.593 --> 00:22:05.114
we do get out of the Regulation 28 space
when you have living in New

597
00:22:05.394 --> 00:22:07.394
Zealand, so we tend to go much more
offshore.

598
00:22:08.276 --> 00:22:10.276
Yeah, of course.

599
00:22:09.536 --> 00:22:11.536
And why wouldn't you?

600
00:22:10.757 --> 00:22:12.817
Historically, that would serve you well.

601
00:22:13.258 --> 00:22:15.298
David, on the movers on the JSC,

602
00:22:15.358 --> 00:22:17.539
I'll come up with mine in a moment, but
maybe you start.

603
00:22:17.539 --> 00:22:19.539
What have you seen?

604
00:22:18.180 --> 00:22:20.180
Any themes today?

605
00:22:20.960 --> 00:22:22.960
Not really.

606
00:22:21.801 --> 00:22:24.442
I think it's been very, very quiet.

607
00:22:24.802 --> 00:22:26.802
You know, just before,

608
00:22:25.703 --> 00:22:28.624
I wanted to see a comparison because just
as before we came

609
00:22:28.644 --> 00:22:30.644
on air.

610
00:22:29.265 --> 00:22:31.265
Yeah.

611
00:22:29.705 --> 00:22:31.705
In fact, yeah,

612
00:22:31.906 --> 00:22:34.108
I can't believe this unless I haven't
updated.

613
00:22:35.688 --> 00:22:37.688
For me,

614
00:22:36.389 --> 00:22:39.150
it looks like the value traded was around
about

615
00:22:39.230 --> 00:22:41.230
$10 billion.

616
00:22:40.491 --> 00:22:43.353
But I'm not sure because that's what I saw
before the

617
00:22:43.373 --> 00:22:45.373
closing auction.

618
00:22:44.193 --> 00:22:46.193
So I'm not sure if this is updated.

619
00:22:46.355 --> 00:22:48.676
But very, very low levels of activity.

620
00:22:49.372 --> 00:22:51.953
And, you know,

621
00:22:53.153 --> 00:22:56.074
what has dominated in a big way,

622
00:22:56.294 --> 00:22:59.135
Lindsay, has been the financials.

623
00:22:59.435 --> 00:23:01.436
I know Bitcoin is up again today.

624
00:23:01.436 --> 00:23:03.436
It had a very good run yesterday,

625
00:23:03.276 --> 00:23:05.276
up another 3% on that.

626
00:23:04.777 --> 00:23:07.558
But if I had to identify anything,

627
00:23:08.118 --> 00:23:10.879
it's an incredible run in banks and
financials,

628
00:23:12.359 --> 00:23:14.400
supported by some of the miners as well.

629
00:23:15.196 --> 00:23:17.196
The miners yesterday were horrible,

630
00:23:16.676 --> 00:23:18.957
2.5% down for the resources index.

631
00:23:19.077 --> 00:23:22.018
And the bottom five was populated by the
diggers.

632
00:23:22.338 --> 00:23:24.338
But today,

633
00:23:25.699 --> 00:23:27.699
the Bitcoin story is an interesting one.

634
00:23:27.199 --> 00:23:30.020
Because when I see a stock rally 4.5%

635
00:23:30.080 --> 00:23:32.981
like it did yesterday on its results, you
think, ah,

636
00:23:32.981 --> 00:23:34.981
it's maybe a few shorts in the market.

637
00:23:34.741 --> 00:23:36.741
It's just a flash in the pan.

638
00:23:36.282 --> 00:23:38.282
But there's been buying.

639
00:23:37.242 --> 00:23:39.263
People have gone through those numbers, to
my mind.

640
00:23:39.583 --> 00:23:41.583
And they've said, OK,

641
00:23:40.903 --> 00:23:42.903
let's load up on this dividend.

642
00:23:43.564 --> 00:23:45.564
Great story.

643
00:23:44.704 --> 00:23:47.627
organic growth it's just doing well
overseas unlike

644
00:23:47.667 --> 00:23:50.569
some south african companies over the
decades but anyway bid

645
00:23:50.609 --> 00:23:53.392
core up three and two-thirds percent today
sun them

646
00:23:53.392 --> 00:23:56.254
3.2 percent higher pan-african resources
up three

647
00:23:56.374 --> 00:23:59.137
anglo gold up for two and three quarters i
think it went

648
00:23:59.197 --> 00:24:02.159
ex-div yesterday so back up today sun
international

649
00:24:02.539 --> 00:24:05.382
up 2.7 percent downside serious down

650
00:24:05.422 --> 00:24:08.224
three percent impala platinum another two
and a half percent weaker

651
00:24:08.605 --> 00:24:10.867
investec plc has lost two and a half
percent

652
00:24:11.227 --> 00:24:13.428
quilter down Nearly 2%.

653
00:24:13.468 --> 00:24:15.468
The volume yesterday, David,

654
00:24:15.609 --> 00:24:17.609
was 21 billion.

655
00:24:17.269 --> 00:24:19.269
So maybe people just said, right,

656
00:24:18.610 --> 00:24:20.870
we've got to square our books up ahead of
the long weekend.

657
00:24:21.131 --> 00:24:24.051
And that is why today's volumes are so low
because everyone's given up.

658
00:24:24.091 --> 00:24:26.091
I don't know.

659
00:24:24.832 --> 00:24:26.832
Again, what?

660
00:24:25.352 --> 00:24:27.352
Yeah, exactly.

661
00:24:27.032 --> 00:24:29.032
It has updated.

662
00:24:28.233 --> 00:24:30.233
Nothing great.

663
00:24:29.093 --> 00:24:31.093
15 billion.

664
00:24:29.953 --> 00:24:32.374
So quite a bit came through right at the
end.

665
00:24:32.614 --> 00:24:34.614
But it was, you know, that's,

666
00:24:34.575 --> 00:24:36.575
I think that's just the order of the day.

667
00:24:36.375 --> 00:24:38.375
That's what we see every day.

668
00:24:37.976 --> 00:24:39.976
So when you look at volumes.

669
00:24:39.636 --> 00:24:41.918
There's a lot of squaring towards the end
of the day

670
00:24:42.498 --> 00:24:44.559
as you get the balancing.

671
00:24:44.659 --> 00:24:46.659
But volume is incredibly low.

672
00:24:46.921 --> 00:24:49.283
And that's why you see these wide
movements.

673
00:24:50.684 --> 00:24:53.125
Lindsay, the other point on BitCore,

674
00:24:53.345 --> 00:24:56.047
when you actually look into the JSC

675
00:24:56.948 --> 00:24:59.830
and you want to build a portfolio,

676
00:24:59.870 --> 00:25:02.732
because remember, pension funds, you're
still getting all those

677
00:25:03.653 --> 00:25:05.894
contributions that come in on a monthly
basis.

678
00:25:05.894 --> 00:25:08.576
It's so difficult to put together a
portfolio.

679
00:25:08.836 --> 00:25:10.836
It really is.

680
00:25:11.017 --> 00:25:13.317
And I think one of the

681
00:25:13.397 --> 00:25:16.278
obstacles is the volatility that

682
00:25:16.318 --> 00:25:18.339
we're seeing in the mining industry.

683
00:25:18.619 --> 00:25:20.619
It hasn't bottomed yet.

684
00:25:19.999 --> 00:25:21.999
It's still trying to find a bottom.

685
00:25:22.340 --> 00:25:25.061
So if you look through South32's numbers
today,

686
00:25:25.101 --> 00:25:27.101
you look through Impala's,

687
00:25:27.442 --> 00:25:30.322
you've still got a very there are a lot of

688
00:25:30.342 --> 00:25:32.342
difficulties there.

689
00:25:31.643 --> 00:25:33.643
They're talking good,

690
00:25:32.403 --> 00:25:35.304
but it goes through BHP numbers as

691
00:25:35.364 --> 00:25:37.364
well.

692
00:25:36.448 --> 00:25:39.091
So our market is kind of being tossed

693
00:25:39.151 --> 00:25:41.151
aside by that, you know, one day up,

694
00:25:40.892 --> 00:25:42.892
one day down in resources.

695
00:25:42.614 --> 00:25:44.876
But to put a portfolio together is so
difficult.

696
00:25:45.356 --> 00:25:47.779
Just briefly staying with you, David,
closing indices, if you would.

697
00:25:48.759 --> 00:25:50.759
Yeah.

698
00:25:49.440 --> 00:25:51.440
So the

699
00:25:50.581 --> 00:25:53.183
All Share Index ended up about

700
00:25:53.704 --> 00:25:55.704
a quarter percent,

701
00:25:54.144 --> 00:25:57.227
8,4239.

702
00:25:57.587 --> 00:26:00.570
The resource index came back from being
all over the

703
00:26:00.610 --> 00:26:02.610
place, up a half a percent as well.

704
00:26:02.692 --> 00:26:05.594
even though some of the big miners were in
negative

705
00:26:05.634 --> 00:26:07.634
territory.

706
00:26:07.076 --> 00:26:09.998
You know, Anglos, Glencore, African
Rainbow Minerals,

707
00:26:10.518 --> 00:26:12.518
Amplats, Impala were all negative,

708
00:26:12.580 --> 00:26:15.522
but still managed to creep in the half a
percent.

709
00:26:15.562 --> 00:26:18.304
And I think the gold shares kept the
precious

710
00:26:18.364 --> 00:26:20.364
metals and mining index up.

711
00:26:20.286 --> 00:26:22.828
There were gains in Anglo Gold,
Goldfields, Harmony,

712
00:26:22.888 --> 00:26:24.888
and so on.

713
00:26:24.309 --> 00:26:26.309
Banks, yeah.

714
00:26:25.914 --> 00:26:27.914
0.4 of a percent,

715
00:26:27.995 --> 00:26:29.995
nothing dramatic there.

716
00:26:29.416 --> 00:26:32.017
And industrials,

717
00:26:32.257 --> 00:26:34.257
hardly better.

718
00:26:33.918 --> 00:26:35.918
Consumer discretionary down.

719
00:26:35.519 --> 00:26:38.461
And I think the reason for that is that if
you

720
00:26:38.481 --> 00:26:41.342
look at ABM, they have Richmond, Process,
British American,

721
00:26:41.442 --> 00:26:43.584
Placo, NASPAS all down,

722
00:26:43.704 --> 00:26:45.704
all in negative territory as well.

723
00:26:45.084 --> 00:26:48.046
So all the big ones, offshore-based, were
down.

724
00:26:48.186 --> 00:26:50.186
So that's what we're getting.

725
00:26:49.927 --> 00:26:51.927
It's all over the place.

726
00:26:51.008 --> 00:26:53.008
You mentioned some of the gainers,

727
00:26:53.089 --> 00:26:55.290
but they don't really have a lot of...

728
00:26:56.714 --> 00:26:58.714
in a sway in the overall index.

729
00:26:59.175 --> 00:27:01.436
Viv, earlier on, just to end this, Viv,

730
00:27:01.476 --> 00:27:03.476
you mentioned Britain, a tiny little
island,

731
00:27:03.856 --> 00:27:05.857
and advances in sailing, et cetera,

732
00:27:06.017 --> 00:27:08.618
and off they went and they dominated at
one stage.

733
00:27:09.218 --> 00:27:11.218
In those days,

734
00:27:09.738 --> 00:27:12.619
the British Empire was represented by pink
on a

735
00:27:12.659 --> 00:27:14.659
map or a globe,

736
00:27:14.019 --> 00:27:16.980
and 40% of the world was administered

737
00:27:17.000 --> 00:27:19.781
or owned in a way, people can own
countries,

738
00:27:20.121 --> 00:27:22.442
owned by Britain. It's not a
particularly...

739
00:27:22.722 --> 00:27:25.623
a glorious moment in British history
because there was a

740
00:27:25.643 --> 00:27:28.465
good deal of brutality meted out to other
countries.

741
00:27:28.725 --> 00:27:31.566
But the fact is that Britain has always
been fairly innovative

742
00:27:31.586 --> 00:27:33.887
until along came Tony Blair,

743
00:27:34.107 --> 00:27:36.107
Boris Johnson, Liz Truss,

744
00:27:36.749 --> 00:27:38.749
Rishi Sunak,

745
00:27:38.350 --> 00:27:40.891
and now the awful Sakhir Starmer dragging
us

746
00:27:41.571 --> 00:27:44.132
backwards and never to

747
00:27:44.192 --> 00:27:46.192
recover.

748
00:27:44.693 --> 00:27:46.714
I mean, unless someone extraordinary comes
along.

749
00:27:47.774 --> 00:27:49.774
You mentioned sailing.

750
00:27:48.955 --> 00:27:50.996
Now, I don't know if you follow this sort
of thing,

751
00:27:51.016 --> 00:27:53.718
but occasionally you'll see a snippet on
the news.

752
00:27:54.199 --> 00:27:56.199
The America's Cup started in

753
00:27:56.020 --> 00:27:58.020
1851.

754
00:27:57.601 --> 00:28:00.363
It's the oldest international sporting
event in

755
00:28:00.383 --> 00:28:02.383
history.

756
00:28:01.183 --> 00:28:03.385
It started then and it's been going on
since then.

757
00:28:03.705 --> 00:28:05.867
I don't know if you've seen the technology
of the New Yorks.

758
00:28:05.887 --> 00:28:07.888
I used to watch it just out of

759
00:28:08.589 --> 00:28:10.589
interest.

760
00:28:09.269 --> 00:28:12.171
And you see the crew on the deck of this
catamaran and

761
00:28:12.171 --> 00:28:15.133
they're pulling ropes and sails are going
one way and they have to do a sort

762
00:28:15.133 --> 00:28:17.133
of a U-turn round a...

763
00:28:16.254 --> 00:28:18.254
a buoy in the middle of a choppy ocean.

764
00:28:18.256 --> 00:28:20.256
And it was great.

765
00:28:18.776 --> 00:28:21.258
But now you can't see any crew.

766
00:28:21.919 --> 00:28:24.621
They've got these like almost like
hydrofoils on the

767
00:28:24.681 --> 00:28:26.681
side,

768
00:28:25.441 --> 00:28:28.384
which are programmed with AI to get around
this

769
00:28:28.444 --> 00:28:30.444
buoy.

770
00:28:28.904 --> 00:28:30.904
So it's all now.

771
00:28:30.205 --> 00:28:32.205
I mean, okay,

772
00:28:30.686 --> 00:28:33.268
you have to have a skipper and you have to
make a few decisions,

773
00:28:33.548 --> 00:28:36.450
but it's all computer generated, Aviv.

774
00:28:36.731 --> 00:28:38.731
It's everywhere, your AI.

775
00:28:39.132 --> 00:28:41.494
Yeah, look, I mean, that's another thing
you have to understand,

776
00:28:41.514 --> 00:28:43.514
that everything stopped today.

777
00:28:43.476 --> 00:28:45.476
Absolutely stopped today.

778
00:28:44.237 --> 00:28:46.237
There was no more progress from where we
are right now.

779
00:28:46.454 --> 00:28:48.555
In the next 10 years, the developments in
the world,

780
00:28:48.615 --> 00:28:50.615
just based on the current technology,

781
00:28:50.115 --> 00:28:52.115
would still be revolutionary.

782
00:28:52.276 --> 00:28:55.116
We'd still be seeing such incredible
changes in how the world works,

783
00:28:55.556 --> 00:28:57.997
just based on the stuff that we have
available right now.

784
00:28:58.797 --> 00:29:01.378
So yeah, the stuff is coming out in ways
that are weird.

785
00:29:01.638 --> 00:29:03.638
But what do you want to mention?

786
00:29:02.438 --> 00:29:04.438
I don't think we've mentioned this yet.

787
00:29:03.399 --> 00:29:05.399
I don't know if we talked about it.

788
00:29:04.079 --> 00:29:06.079
Have we talked about the two-pot system
yet?

789
00:29:05.839 --> 00:29:07.839
No, no, we haven't.

790
00:29:07.240 --> 00:29:09.240
On Sunday.

791
00:29:08.960 --> 00:29:10.960
Is that when it starts?

792
00:29:10.861 --> 00:29:12.861
It starts on Sunday.

793
00:29:12.321 --> 00:29:14.321
And I wanted to ask David,

794
00:29:14.262 --> 00:29:16.262
because I've been seeing estimates out
there.

795
00:29:16.142 --> 00:29:19.084
somewhere around about the 70 billion
round range in terms of withdrawals.

796
00:29:21.206 --> 00:29:23.206
Anywhere between

797
00:29:22.847 --> 00:29:24.847
25 to 70.

798
00:29:24.488 --> 00:29:26.488
No one knows what it's going to be.

799
00:29:25.789 --> 00:29:27.789
Yeah.

800
00:29:26.790 --> 00:29:28.790
No one knows.

801
00:29:28.612 --> 00:29:30.612
Yeah.

802
00:29:28.732 --> 00:29:31.414
And 70 billion in a market that does about
15 billion in a day

803
00:29:32.455 --> 00:29:34.455
in terms of sales.

804
00:29:34.036 --> 00:29:36.036
Yeah.

805
00:29:34.896 --> 00:29:36.896
It is a wholesale.

806
00:29:36.858 --> 00:29:38.858
That's going to be a very

807
00:29:39.280 --> 00:29:41.280
I think that's going to be front-loaded as
well.

808
00:29:40.621 --> 00:29:42.621
It's going to happen mostly in the first
month.

809
00:29:43.091 --> 00:29:45.091
I don't know if you'd expect or not,

810
00:29:44.392 --> 00:29:46.754
but I think next month might be very bad
for

811
00:29:47.554 --> 00:29:49.554
the South African markets.

812
00:29:48.915 --> 00:29:50.915
If you're forcing 50,

813
00:29:50.377 --> 00:29:53.259
70 billion rounds of the sale to a market
that does

814
00:29:53.359 --> 00:29:55.961
15 billion in one day in total volume.

815
00:29:56.862 --> 00:29:59.244
That's a terrible thought.

816
00:29:59.284 --> 00:30:02.026
We're trying to understand what it does to
because

817
00:30:02.246 --> 00:30:04.908
it's going to affect those pension funds
where

818
00:30:05.649 --> 00:30:08.091
they have a low level of worker or

819
00:30:08.511 --> 00:30:10.511
low-income workers.

820
00:30:09.933 --> 00:30:11.933
The smaller pension funds.

821
00:30:11.714 --> 00:30:14.536
who need the money rather than an older
established

822
00:30:14.576 --> 00:30:17.497
type pension funds but no one can give me
any

823
00:30:17.617 --> 00:30:20.439
kind of clear indication of what it's
going to do

824
00:30:20.519 --> 00:30:23.241
to the stock market uh i'll sit on a
pension

825
00:30:23.301 --> 00:30:26.262
fund and they're very well kind of
buffered

826
00:30:26.403 --> 00:30:28.403
or cushioned uh

827
00:30:28.384 --> 00:30:31.185
made a little bit of a provision but it's
hardly going to dent

828
00:30:31.225 --> 00:30:33.627
them at all this is a multi-billion one

829
00:30:34.087 --> 00:30:37.069
and uh so i think for the larger ones are
okay but

830
00:30:37.409 --> 00:30:39.409
but i think it's going to be released

831
00:30:41.764 --> 00:30:43.764
into the economy,

832
00:30:43.105 --> 00:30:45.105
mainly for foodstuffs or whatever.

833
00:30:44.907 --> 00:30:46.907
My big fear,

834
00:30:45.688 --> 00:30:48.350
and I say this tongue-in-cheek mainly
because I

835
00:30:48.411 --> 00:30:51.293
read there was an article, I don't know if
you picked it up,

836
00:30:51.353 --> 00:30:53.936
from Capitec about the huge

837
00:30:54.036 --> 00:30:56.036
levels of sports betting.

838
00:30:55.758 --> 00:30:58.040
And it's just something that really upsets
me.

839
00:30:58.901 --> 00:31:01.563
It genuinely upsets me because every

840
00:31:01.663 --> 00:31:04.366
time I'm a sports lover, I watch.

841
00:31:04.782 --> 00:31:06.782
You know, I watch the sports all the time,

842
00:31:06.744 --> 00:31:09.265
and the only thing I see are sports
betting

843
00:31:10.106 --> 00:31:12.668
adverts from, you know, from different,
and they're glamorous,

844
00:31:12.688 --> 00:31:15.230
they make it glamorous, with a bit of
booze on the side.

845
00:31:16.142 --> 00:31:18.142
you know, cognacs and so on.

846
00:31:17.703 --> 00:31:19.703
And everything's glamorous.

847
00:31:19.043 --> 00:31:21.043
And it's not that glamorous.

848
00:31:20.904 --> 00:31:23.585
There's nothing glamorous about losing a
bet, David, let me tell you,

849
00:31:23.965 --> 00:31:26.426
and trying to claw it back and being in
the pocket of your

850
00:31:26.446 --> 00:31:28.446
bookmaker.

851
00:31:27.307 --> 00:31:29.307
I used to bet informally,

852
00:31:29.328 --> 00:31:31.328
and I would invariably lose.

853
00:31:31.128 --> 00:31:33.589
You can't win really, unless you're very,
very lucky,

854
00:31:33.990 --> 00:31:35.990
or very skillful,

855
00:31:35.070 --> 00:31:37.251
or have insider knowledge on what's going
on.

856
00:31:37.751 --> 00:31:39.992
But I remember the chap said to me,

857
00:31:40.332 --> 00:31:42.332
I phoned him up and said,

858
00:31:41.533 --> 00:31:43.974
I can't pay for another few days till I
get paid.

859
00:31:43.974 --> 00:31:45.974
He said, No, no worry.

860
00:31:45.158 --> 00:31:47.799
But he said, Lindsay, pay and the pain
goes away.

861
00:31:48.399 --> 00:31:50.399
And also know your limits.

862
00:31:50.260 --> 00:31:52.281
But these companies like Paddy Power in
the UK,

863
00:31:53.362 --> 00:31:55.903
they come across as really friendly, have
lovely ads,

864
00:31:55.923 --> 00:31:57.923
and it's very funny.

865
00:31:57.183 --> 00:31:59.183
They don't use the glamour thing.

866
00:31:58.424 --> 00:32:00.424
They use the humour thing.

867
00:32:00.285 --> 00:32:03.126
But you look at the football that you and
I watch religiously,

868
00:32:03.226 --> 00:32:05.226
David,

869
00:32:04.086 --> 00:32:06.888
about 50% of the premiership clubs have

870
00:32:07.588 --> 00:32:09.588
a sports betting company.

871
00:32:09.789 --> 00:32:11.789
I hate it.

872
00:32:11.310 --> 00:32:13.310
Yeah, yeah.

873
00:32:13.558 --> 00:32:15.558
Yeah, look,

874
00:32:13.838 --> 00:32:16.620
there's a reason you put the casinos way
out of the

875
00:32:16.640 --> 00:32:18.640
distance, middle of Las Vegas, Sun City.

876
00:32:19.081 --> 00:32:21.081
Yes,

877
00:32:19.261 --> 00:32:22.182
it's fun to go and gamble for a weekend

878
00:32:22.182 --> 00:32:24.182
or so, right?

879
00:32:23.002 --> 00:32:25.243
But you can't have it available every day,
all the time.

880
00:32:25.923 --> 00:32:27.923
That's when you get into real trouble.

881
00:32:27.444 --> 00:32:29.444
You can go and say, okay,

882
00:32:28.504 --> 00:32:31.226
I'll blow you a certain amount of money at

883
00:32:31.526 --> 00:32:34.047
the back of the day at Wild Coast or
something, you know what I mean?

884
00:32:34.427 --> 00:32:36.427
Or go to Las Vegas or go to Sun City,

885
00:32:36.007 --> 00:32:38.007
and you have this long trip.

886
00:32:37.848 --> 00:32:39.848
You do it, it's over, you come back.

887
00:32:39.949 --> 00:32:42.030
But when you start having casinos in the
city,

888
00:32:42.650 --> 00:32:44.811
Why is that having the thing on your
phone?

889
00:32:45.231 --> 00:32:47.231
Yes, exactly.

890
00:32:45.891 --> 00:32:47.891
This is very dangerous.

891
00:32:47.591 --> 00:32:49.591
It's a very dangerous thing.

892
00:32:48.872 --> 00:32:50.872
You can play slots on your phone every
night.

893
00:32:50.892 --> 00:32:52.913
You can play poker on your phone every
night.

894
00:32:53.273 --> 00:32:56.154
It's not a day out or a weekend out with
the family and having

895
00:32:56.194 --> 00:32:58.254
a hundred grand flutter on the slots or
something.

896
00:32:58.514 --> 00:33:00.514
This is an addiction on that phone.

897
00:33:00.415 --> 00:33:03.396
And I'm sure half the people you watch are
sitting in a restaurant

898
00:33:04.096 --> 00:33:06.096
with their phone.

899
00:33:05.016 --> 00:33:07.237
I'm sure some of them are playing the
slots.

900
00:33:07.457 --> 00:33:09.457
There was an advert.

901
00:33:08.957 --> 00:33:10.957
That's what I was going to say.

902
00:33:09.917 --> 00:33:11.917
There was one advert where...

903
00:33:12.442 --> 00:33:14.442
Both of them, the male and the female,

904
00:33:14.484 --> 00:33:16.484
the lady excuses herself,

905
00:33:15.865 --> 00:33:18.728
goes to sit on the toilet so that she can
finish her bed.

906
00:33:18.968 --> 00:33:20.968
And the chap,

907
00:33:20.149 --> 00:33:22.149
her date is doing the exact same thing.

908
00:33:22.351 --> 00:33:24.351
And that's what it is down to.

909
00:33:23.792 --> 00:33:25.792
It becomes an obsession.

910
00:33:25.033 --> 00:33:27.675
And believe me, there's nothing glamorous.

911
00:33:27.795 --> 00:33:29.795
And it's all over the place.

912
00:33:29.237 --> 00:33:31.237
It's in your face.

913
00:33:30.458 --> 00:33:32.700
And Capitec raised concerns.

914
00:33:33.260 --> 00:33:35.260
And there's nothing.

915
00:33:35.482 --> 00:33:37.504
There's no, you know,

916
00:33:37.724 --> 00:33:40.166
kids can pick up their parents'phone and
do what they like.

917
00:33:40.246 --> 00:33:43.028
because you don't have to be

918
00:33:43.028 --> 00:33:45.028
18 or whatever it is.

919
00:33:44.489 --> 00:33:46.489
But anyway, it's...

920
00:33:46.090 --> 00:33:48.090
Well, it's a good point you brought up,
David.

921
00:33:47.791 --> 00:33:50.613
I should maybe do an extended program
about the

922
00:33:50.954 --> 00:33:53.756
extent of sports betting in South Africa,
which can ill afford it,

923
00:33:53.796 --> 00:33:55.796
let's face it.

924
00:33:54.436 --> 00:33:56.436
Gentlemen, thank you very much for your
time as always.

925
00:33:56.157 --> 00:33:58.157
Another great chat.

926
00:33:56.958 --> 00:33:58.958
I really enjoyed it today.

927
00:33:58.019 --> 00:34:00.019
David Shapiro is from SAS and Securities.

928
00:34:00.020 --> 00:34:02.020
Viv Govender from Rennes, Swiss.

929
00:34:01.781 --> 00:34:03.781
Both from Johannesburg.

930
00:34:02.862 --> 00:34:04.862
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

931
00:34:04.623 --> 00:34:07.385
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of

932
00:34:07.445 --> 00:34:09.445
Lindsay Williams.

933
00:34:08.686 --> 00:34:11.568
and various contributors and do not
reflect the policy,

934
00:34:11.689 --> 00:34:14.311
position, or opinion of any other agency,

935
00:34:14.551 --> 00:34:16.551
organization, employer,

936
00:34:16.432 --> 00:34:18.514
or company associated with

937
00:34:18.554 --> 00:34:20.554
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

938
00:34:20.736 --> 00:34:23.178
Assumptions made on the analyses are not

939
00:34:23.298 --> 00:34:26.241
reflective of the position of any other
entity other

940
00:34:26.281 --> 00:34:28.281
than the speaker or the author.

941
00:34:28.002 --> 00:34:30.504
And since we are critically thinking human
beings,

942
00:34:30.864 --> 00:34:33.206
these views are always subject to change,

943
00:34:33.466 --> 00:34:36.029
revision, and rethinking at any time.

944
00:34:36.349 --> 00:34:38.349
Please do not hold us to them.

945
00:34:37.960 --> 00:34:39.960
in perpetuity.
