WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.424 --> 00:00:03.126
You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast

2
00:00:03.406 --> 00:00:05.406
with Lindsay Williams.

3
00:00:05.408 --> 00:00:07.409
The JSC has closed its doors for another
day,

4
00:00:07.489 --> 00:00:09.489
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

5
00:00:09.670 --> 00:00:11.832
And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe,

6
00:00:12.112 --> 00:00:15.054
Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in

7
00:00:15.374 --> 00:00:17.374
Cape Town.

8
00:00:15.815 --> 00:00:17.936
A very cold Cape Town, I understand,
Skulk.

9
00:00:19.497 --> 00:00:21.497
That's an understatement.

10
00:00:21.458 --> 00:00:24.380
No, I mean, it's freezing cold.

11
00:00:24.460 --> 00:00:26.822
And the most disappointing

12
00:00:27.562 --> 00:00:29.984
part is you speak to your counterpart.

13
00:00:30.004 --> 00:00:32.985
part, your friends and families in other
parts of South

14
00:00:32.985 --> 00:00:34.985
Africa, more specifically the

15
00:00:35.046 --> 00:00:37.567
Gauteng region, Limpopo,

16
00:00:37.907 --> 00:00:40.729
and they're walking around with t-shirts.

17
00:00:40.869 --> 00:00:42.950
They're saying it's like

18
00:00:43.290 --> 00:00:45.290
30 odd degrees.

19
00:00:45.451 --> 00:00:48.352
Feels like spring already in the latter
part of

20
00:00:48.452 --> 00:00:50.452
August.

21
00:00:50.233 --> 00:00:52.233
We've got snow on Table Mountain.

22
00:00:51.914 --> 00:00:53.914
That maybe just describes it all.

23
00:00:53.454 --> 00:00:55.454
That's amazing.

24
00:00:54.435 --> 00:00:57.316
But just before we get off the
meteorological theme,

25
00:00:58.320 --> 00:01:00.320
Isn't it nice?

26
00:00:58.920 --> 00:01:01.781
Don't you find it nice to have a freezing
cold evening and you

27
00:01:01.801 --> 00:01:03.801
can have a glass of red wine?

28
00:01:03.121 --> 00:01:05.162
Not that you need an excuse to have a
glass of red wine,

29
00:01:05.182 --> 00:01:07.923
but some people do, not me.

30
00:01:08.303 --> 00:01:11.104
And snuggle up around a fire or a heater
or something,

31
00:01:11.104 --> 00:01:13.104
whatever it is, I find it quite cosy.

32
00:01:13.504 --> 00:01:16.145
It's not nice to have a temperate

33
00:01:16.165 --> 00:01:18.165
climate.

34
00:01:17.045 --> 00:01:19.045
I like a good freeze.

35
00:01:19.626 --> 00:01:22.327
Yeah, South Africans love

36
00:01:24.327 --> 00:01:26.327
to moan about stuff.

37
00:01:26.528 --> 00:01:28.528
Me too.

38
00:01:27.588 --> 00:01:30.431
I would just like to moan about being hot
again

39
00:01:30.511 --> 00:01:32.511
just for a day or two.

40
00:01:32.752 --> 00:01:34.752
No, I totally agree with you.

41
00:01:34.494 --> 00:01:37.356
I love all facets of Cape

42
00:01:37.356 --> 00:01:39.356
Town weather.

43
00:01:37.877 --> 00:01:40.118
I know I'm a typical Cape Townian

44
00:01:41.039 --> 00:01:43.039
boy.

45
00:01:41.359 --> 00:01:43.401
I grew up here and I'm still staying here.

46
00:01:43.401 --> 00:01:45.401
So it is literally

47
00:01:46.744 --> 00:01:49.286
a I think when the Dutch arrived there,

48
00:01:49.386 --> 00:01:52.068
they first called it

49
00:01:52.809 --> 00:01:54.809
Little Holland or something like that,

50
00:01:54.370 --> 00:01:56.370
if I'm not mistaken.

51
00:01:57.232 --> 00:01:59.934
A clay Netherlands, a small,

52
00:02:00.034 --> 00:02:02.034
small Netherlands.

53
00:02:01.395 --> 00:02:03.395
And

54
00:02:02.516 --> 00:02:04.777
I think it's for that reason,

55
00:02:04.877 --> 00:02:06.877
because you've got these,

56
00:02:06.358 --> 00:02:09.040
literally these four seasons in one day.

57
00:02:09.180 --> 00:02:11.822
Winter is just constantly raining

58
00:02:12.162 --> 00:02:14.444
and, you know, summers are nice and hot,

59
00:02:14.724 --> 00:02:16.724
which I don't think you've had this year.

60
00:02:16.765 --> 00:02:18.765
Did you?

61
00:02:17.726 --> 00:02:19.807
Well, it's 28, 29 degrees at the moment,

62
00:02:19.828 --> 00:02:21.828
but this is the last day of summer now.

63
00:02:21.749 --> 00:02:23.749
It's all over.

64
00:02:22.850 --> 00:02:25.631
Temperature starts falling according to my
Norwegian

65
00:02:25.692 --> 00:02:27.692
weather app.

66
00:02:26.512 --> 00:02:29.214
which is incredibly accurate and yeah so

67
00:02:29.435 --> 00:02:31.676
i'm going to make the most of this but
that this is the end of

68
00:02:32.397 --> 00:02:35.099
of of summer and talking about the
netherlands i

69
00:02:35.099 --> 00:02:37.802
occasionally drive around skunk or get
driven around

70
00:02:38.382 --> 00:02:41.004
and i see bid corp vans whizzing around
everywhere

71
00:02:41.725 --> 00:02:44.707
and they came out with a set of results
we're waiting for them and

72
00:02:44.747 --> 00:02:47.610
videos but uh let's focus on big bid corp

73
00:02:47.950 --> 00:02:50.592
nice set of numbers and despite a backdrop
as they

74
00:02:50.732 --> 00:02:53.715
say of let's have a look turbulent and

75
00:02:53.775 --> 00:02:56.257
challenging world beset with anemic,

76
00:02:56.397 --> 00:02:59.380
stagnant, and sometimes negative economic
growth.

77
00:02:59.460 --> 00:03:01.582
And yet they increased their revenue

78
00:03:02.583 --> 00:03:04.885
to $226 billion,

79
00:03:04.885 --> 00:03:06.885
up over 15%.

80
00:03:06.406 --> 00:03:08.406
What a performance.

81
00:03:08.288 --> 00:03:10.288
Yeah, that's amazing.

82
00:03:09.469 --> 00:03:11.469
I mean,

83
00:03:11.590 --> 00:03:13.590
I've often had this conversation, you
know,

84
00:03:13.512 --> 00:03:16.455
either we'll talk about Nuclex or

85
00:03:16.555 --> 00:03:18.555
Capitec,

86
00:03:18.076 --> 00:03:20.178
and then I always refer to these
companies,

87
00:03:20.598 --> 00:03:22.598
the ones that got away.

88
00:03:22.200 --> 00:03:24.781
Now, I'm sitting here feeling sour.

89
00:03:24.781 --> 00:03:26.782
I mean, I feel really,

90
00:03:26.943 --> 00:03:29.444
really disappointed because one of these
companies that

91
00:03:29.944 --> 00:03:32.606
I just always want to include in my
portfolio.

92
00:03:32.686 --> 00:03:35.648
It's just most of the time it's

93
00:03:35.648 --> 00:03:37.648
just a little bit on the expensive side.

94
00:03:37.268 --> 00:03:39.268
So you mentioned it today.

95
00:03:38.869 --> 00:03:41.351
I mean, the revenue looking really, really
good,

96
00:03:41.411 --> 00:03:43.411
15% higher.

97
00:03:43.072 --> 00:03:45.093
When we look at the headline earnings per
share,

98
00:03:45.153 --> 00:03:47.153
24 Rand,

99
00:03:46.814 --> 00:03:48.814
also up 15.5%.

100
00:03:48.615 --> 00:03:50.615
I think the most important thing is that.

101
00:03:50.536 --> 00:03:52.737
it's a beat when you compare it to the
refinitive

102
00:03:53.477 --> 00:03:56.198
consensus estimate so that was good to
also do

103
00:03:56.318 --> 00:03:58.998
dividend um we're looking at a 10 rand

104
00:03:59.238 --> 00:04:01.839
90 uh dividend which is up 16

105
00:04:01.899 --> 00:04:04.800
percent refinitive had them at 10.75 so

106
00:04:05.400 --> 00:04:07.400
beat

107
00:04:06.020 --> 00:04:08.741
beat uh maybe on the on the revenue a
little bit

108
00:04:09.081 --> 00:04:11.342
softish but it's just

109
00:04:12.122 --> 00:04:14.823
as i read through this is this the
statement i just

110
00:04:15.503 --> 00:04:18.063
felt good i mean this is a company

111
00:04:18.364 --> 00:04:20.364
and um ceo bennett

112
00:04:20.384 --> 00:04:23.365
He actually mentioned in the report that
the

113
00:04:23.405 --> 00:04:25.626
results were almost 100%

114
00:04:26.186 --> 00:04:28.186
organic growth.

115
00:04:27.027 --> 00:04:29.027
Now, that's fantastic.

116
00:04:29.248 --> 00:04:32.109
It just means that there is very little
acquisitional growth.

117
00:04:33.169 --> 00:04:36.010
This is a company that just managed their
expenses,

118
00:04:36.731 --> 00:04:38.731
and they actually just

119
00:04:40.192 --> 00:04:42.373
opened new doors where they could do so.

120
00:04:43.613 --> 00:04:46.154
They mentioned in the report the

121
00:04:46.255 --> 00:04:48.495
challenging environment, as you just
referred to.

122
00:04:48.956 --> 00:04:50.956
There's a soft…

123
00:04:50.537 --> 00:04:53.523
food inflation and the higher core
inflation that's

124
00:04:53.603 --> 00:04:56.448
usually for food companies like PitCorp
it's a

125
00:04:56.548 --> 00:04:59.253
very very challenging environment and they
managed

126
00:04:59.714 --> 00:05:01.714
to steer

127
00:05:01.015 --> 00:05:03.936
this company well well clear of this this
challenging

128
00:05:03.976 --> 00:05:06.917
environment ah i would say great great
results and now

129
00:05:07.338 --> 00:05:09.979
as we stand in the company's current value
just just

130
00:05:10.219 --> 00:05:13.120
shy of a 16 times p e ratio

131
00:05:13.200 --> 00:05:15.361
so not that expensive anymore

132
00:05:15.981 --> 00:05:17.981
there's

133
00:05:16.241 --> 00:05:19.223
a few companies that might be a little bit
more you know could be seen

134
00:05:19.243 --> 00:05:22.024
as cheaper but uh definitely companies on
my radar

135
00:05:22.164 --> 00:05:24.665
and ah sort of the cherry on the cake uh

136
00:05:25.565 --> 00:05:28.546
shelters were extremely well rewarded

137
00:05:28.586 --> 00:05:31.311
today you know four point 5%, 4%,

138
00:05:31.311 --> 00:05:33.992
up for today, close today at 440 rand.

139
00:05:34.592 --> 00:05:36.592
Very good.

140
00:05:35.012 --> 00:05:37.993
Just for people that are still getting
their head around the fact

141
00:05:37.993 --> 00:05:39.993
that there's a Bidvest and a Bidcorp,

142
00:05:39.714 --> 00:05:41.714
and they were one at one time,

143
00:05:41.614 --> 00:05:43.615
just where does Bidcorp make its money?

144
00:05:43.955 --> 00:05:45.955
Where's its real driver?

145
00:05:46.576 --> 00:05:48.577
Again,

146
00:05:48.617 --> 00:05:50.657
it's the food business.

147
00:05:51.938 --> 00:05:53.938
We sort of looked at them.

148
00:05:53.778 --> 00:05:55.778
Food delivery.

149
00:05:54.358 --> 00:05:56.419
I mean, you have in South Africa.

150
00:05:57.087 --> 00:06:00.048
I often see them with these little food
trucks delivering food

151
00:06:00.108 --> 00:06:02.108
to restaurants,

152
00:06:02.749 --> 00:06:05.331
takeaway companies, and those type of
companies.

153
00:06:05.331 --> 00:06:07.932
So they remember,

154
00:06:08.552 --> 00:06:10.552
you actually mentioned where they come
from.

155
00:06:09.952 --> 00:06:11.952
They come from BitFest.

156
00:06:12.654 --> 00:06:15.435
Back in the days, BitFest, their
logistics,

157
00:06:16.015 --> 00:06:18.015
delivering stuff,

158
00:06:16.895 --> 00:06:19.636
they did so well with the

159
00:06:19.717 --> 00:06:21.717
food side, food delivering side,

160
00:06:21.777 --> 00:06:23.777
that this became a very,

161
00:06:23.718 --> 00:06:25.718
very solid company on its own.

162
00:06:27.359 --> 00:06:30.280
Yeah, so food delivery is, which is big
business.

163
00:06:30.861 --> 00:06:32.861
Skulk,

164
00:06:31.681 --> 00:06:34.202
we've come more or less to the end of the
June year-end

165
00:06:34.242 --> 00:06:37.203
company's results as you go into summer.

166
00:06:37.443 --> 00:06:39.443
And it's been okay.

167
00:06:38.684 --> 00:06:40.684
Standard Bank was quite good, I think.

168
00:06:41.565 --> 00:06:43.565
Yeah,

169
00:06:42.245 --> 00:06:44.666
I think banks in general came out very,

170
00:06:44.706 --> 00:06:46.706
very solid.

171
00:06:46.287 --> 00:06:48.287
But I think

172
00:06:48.308 --> 00:06:51.269
August will be known for the

173
00:06:51.569 --> 00:06:53.569
massive.

174
00:06:52.769 --> 00:06:55.651
And when I say massive, I want to put this
in capital,

175
00:06:55.711 --> 00:06:57.711
capital letters.

176
00:06:57.251 --> 00:06:59.913
massive month for local

177
00:06:59.973 --> 00:07:01.973
property stocks.

178
00:07:02.354 --> 00:07:05.296
We had, I don't know if it's in front of
me, I don't know,

179
00:07:05.296 --> 00:07:07.296
the next day or two,

180
00:07:06.136 --> 00:07:08.537
and this morning we

181
00:07:08.658 --> 00:07:11.159
asked our head of the dealing desk,

182
00:07:12.920 --> 00:07:14.920
where did they see the flows?

183
00:07:14.161 --> 00:07:16.161
And he said, well,

184
00:07:14.821 --> 00:07:17.702
flows were predominantly asset property
stocks.

185
00:07:17.763 --> 00:07:19.763
Well, which ones?

186
00:07:18.783 --> 00:07:20.783
He says, well, all of them.

187
00:07:20.644 --> 00:07:22.644
Literally all of them.

188
00:07:22.185 --> 00:07:24.185
Is that an interest rate play, is it?

189
00:07:23.706 --> 00:07:25.706
Is that an anticipatory play?

190
00:07:26.007 --> 00:07:28.749
with price of money coming down which is
always good for property

191
00:07:29.909 --> 00:07:32.891
that that is the case i mean he mentioned
it is it's pretty

192
00:07:32.931 --> 00:07:35.733
much the locals buying local property
stocks but i

193
00:07:35.853 --> 00:07:38.654
went and look at um i also do

194
00:07:38.754 --> 00:07:41.096
these it's called the themes or asset

195
00:07:41.656 --> 00:07:43.656
asset

196
00:07:41.916 --> 00:07:44.898
class movements and i up to

197
00:07:45.058 --> 00:07:47.900
end of july when you looked at that then
look

198
00:07:48.400 --> 00:07:51.161
i don't elaborate too too too deeply when

199
00:07:51.622 --> 00:07:53.723
you look we had to i used um

200
00:07:54.491 --> 00:07:57.133
develop market equities, emerging market
equities.

201
00:07:57.153 --> 00:07:59.153
I'll use U.S. growth,

202
00:07:59.634 --> 00:08:02.075
small caps, global bonds.

203
00:08:03.316 --> 00:08:05.857
But the sector that's been under

204
00:08:06.418 --> 00:08:09.199
massive amount of pressure, not only last
year,

205
00:08:09.259 --> 00:08:12.041
but also up to July

206
00:08:12.101 --> 00:08:14.482
this year, was global property,

207
00:08:14.882 --> 00:08:17.004
property stock, retail or REITs.

208
00:08:18.204 --> 00:08:20.204
This month,

209
00:08:18.765 --> 00:08:21.506
that thing has popped up from year to date
being

210
00:08:22.247 --> 00:08:24.247
either lost.

211
00:08:23.267 --> 00:08:26.229
or second last and now now finding itself
in something like

212
00:08:26.249 --> 00:08:28.530
fifth position so there's definitely a

213
00:08:28.550 --> 00:08:31.051
migration from from uh

214
00:08:31.071 --> 00:08:33.873
equities bonds to to actually to

215
00:08:33.993 --> 00:08:36.874
to to property stocks um globally but

216
00:08:36.914 --> 00:08:39.856
said african property stocks it's sort of
special because

217
00:08:40.076 --> 00:08:42.517
you know you and i have had this
conversation where

218
00:08:42.758 --> 00:08:45.739
when you look at the prices relative to
its

219
00:08:46.260 --> 00:08:49.041
net asset values this is the deepest that
i've seen

220
00:08:49.141 --> 00:08:51.602
that there's those variations you know
since since

221
00:08:51.622 --> 00:08:53.622
2003.

222
00:08:53.427 --> 00:08:56.188
And that was sort of also a very special

223
00:08:56.248 --> 00:08:58.489
time because that's where we've seen a
massive turn

224
00:08:59.310 --> 00:09:01.310
in local properties as well.

225
00:09:00.870 --> 00:09:03.651
Also, one thing that I love looking and
monitoring is

226
00:09:03.952 --> 00:09:05.952
Stats SA.

227
00:09:05.612 --> 00:09:07.612
They bring out on a monthly basis,

228
00:09:07.493 --> 00:09:09.493
they bring out the

229
00:09:11.014 --> 00:09:13.014
buildings completed

230
00:09:14.236 --> 00:09:16.236
for that month.

231
00:09:15.476 --> 00:09:17.476
And I look at specifically

232
00:09:17.977 --> 00:09:19.977
non-residential properties.

233
00:09:20.638 --> 00:09:22.638
And I...

234
00:09:22.179 --> 00:09:24.179
I usually just combine it over a year
period.

235
00:09:24.120 --> 00:09:26.122
Now, when you look at that data,

236
00:09:26.202 --> 00:09:29.163
this is the lowest amount

237
00:09:29.163 --> 00:09:31.845
of properties that's been completed over
the past 12 months,

238
00:09:32.145 --> 00:09:34.145
since that 2002,

239
00:09:33.046 --> 00:09:35.247
2003 period.

240
00:09:35.688 --> 00:09:38.449
Now, you would ask people, oh, that's
actually bad,

241
00:09:38.469 --> 00:09:40.469
that's negative.

242
00:09:39.850 --> 00:09:41.850
Yes,

243
00:09:40.791 --> 00:09:43.452
it's negative because everybody sort of
had a negative

244
00:09:43.613 --> 00:09:45.613
outlook on asset property.

245
00:09:45.474 --> 00:09:47.474
First, we had COVID because everybody...

246
00:09:47.876 --> 00:09:49.876
It's going to work from home.

247
00:09:48.658 --> 00:09:51.344
They're never going to go back to the
shopping centers never going to go back to

248
00:09:51.124 --> 00:09:53.124
the

249
00:09:51.405 --> 00:09:53.731
offices Never go back to the banks again
and now

250
00:09:54.399 --> 00:09:56.399
They had it wrong.

251
00:09:55.380 --> 00:09:57.380
Everybody's going back to the offices.

252
00:09:56.860 --> 00:09:58.860
They're going back to shopping.

253
00:09:57.901 --> 00:10:00.882
So demand has re-emerged after

254
00:10:00.902 --> 00:10:03.243
COVID and lockdowns and supply,

255
00:10:03.723 --> 00:10:06.605
it has virtually stagnated according to
StatsSA and

256
00:10:06.605 --> 00:10:08.605
according to you.

257
00:10:07.685 --> 00:10:10.306
So you've got a perfect storm for a bull
run.

258
00:10:11.287 --> 00:10:13.287
Oh, yeah.

259
00:10:11.847 --> 00:10:13.847
Oh, yeah.

260
00:10:12.127 --> 00:10:14.468
And then just adding to that mix, which
you just mentioned,

261
00:10:14.568 --> 00:10:17.529
we're at the end of a hiking cycle and

262
00:10:17.730 --> 00:10:20.311
about to enter the declining

263
00:10:20.391 --> 00:10:22.391
cycle.

264
00:10:21.259 --> 00:10:24.200
I mean, then if you add those two
together,

265
00:10:24.240 --> 00:10:26.240
you get a beautiful,

266
00:10:26.141 --> 00:10:28.902
beautiful environment for undervalued
property

267
00:10:28.962 --> 00:10:30.962
stocks, which clearly, you know,

268
00:10:31.503 --> 00:10:33.984
some investors are currently taking
advantage of.

269
00:10:34.004 --> 00:10:36.645
The hottest property overseas, of course,
is NVIDIA,

270
00:10:36.665 --> 00:10:38.946
and they come out with results after the
US close.

271
00:10:38.946 --> 00:10:40.946
I don't know if you're involved in it.

272
00:10:39.967 --> 00:10:41.967
I don't know if you own it.

273
00:10:41.467 --> 00:10:43.467
But even if you don't own it,

274
00:10:43.148 --> 00:10:46.089
you will be watching those results because
according to the options

275
00:10:46.149 --> 00:10:48.791
market in a little piece that I read from
Bloomberg

276
00:10:49.051 --> 00:10:51.051
the other hour.

277
00:10:50.031 --> 00:10:52.933
It was saying that options are saying it
might be

278
00:10:53.053 --> 00:10:55.053
10% up or 10% down,

279
00:10:54.714 --> 00:10:56.796
given the positioning of the options,

280
00:10:57.136 --> 00:10:59.136
investors or traders.

281
00:10:58.857 --> 00:11:01.599
So it should be fun in the aftermarket,
Scott.

282
00:11:02.880 --> 00:11:04.880
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

283
00:11:03.921 --> 00:11:06.483
I mean, that's putting it mildly,

284
00:11:06.883 --> 00:11:08.883
Lindsay.

285
00:11:07.443 --> 00:11:09.443
I mean, what Lindsay is basically telling
us,

286
00:11:09.585 --> 00:11:12.487
I think that I also read somewhere,

287
00:11:12.487 --> 00:11:14.487
I think this is the biggest spread.

288
00:11:14.969 --> 00:11:17.591
This is the largest long positions.

289
00:11:17.771 --> 00:11:19.771
And.

290
00:11:18.371 --> 00:11:20.412
short positions at exactly the same time

291
00:11:21.592 --> 00:11:23.592
in any company.

292
00:11:22.933 --> 00:11:25.094
I mean, so effectively,

293
00:11:25.894 --> 00:11:27.935
you've got massive bulls and massive
bears.

294
00:11:28.035 --> 00:11:30.035
And

295
00:11:28.915 --> 00:11:31.516
I think the perfect scenario would most
probably be

296
00:11:31.977 --> 00:11:34.538
that NVIDIA come out bang on target.

297
00:11:34.558 --> 00:11:36.558
They don't miss target.

298
00:11:35.598 --> 00:11:37.598
They don't miss consensus.

299
00:11:37.099 --> 00:11:39.099
They come out exactly.

300
00:11:38.619 --> 00:11:41.460
And I think that might be the sort of the
best case

301
00:11:41.480 --> 00:11:43.480
scenario for this.

302
00:11:42.541 --> 00:11:45.262
Because like you said, if they miss, I
agree with you.

303
00:11:45.322 --> 00:11:47.523
I think we're going to see this company.

304
00:11:49.015 --> 00:11:51.015
have a hefty fall, and if they beat,

305
00:11:51.017 --> 00:11:53.858
I wouldn't be surprised if it runs, like
you said,

306
00:11:54.238 --> 00:11:56.279
anything between 4% and 10%.

307
00:11:56.560 --> 00:11:58.560
Also, the consensus.

308
00:11:58.301 --> 00:12:01.142
One of my analysts, I want to take his
thunder.

309
00:12:02.043 --> 00:12:04.043
Keenan came to me.

310
00:12:02.863 --> 00:12:04.863
Oh, no, it was Jared.

311
00:12:03.824 --> 00:12:06.405
He came to me today, and he said, Scott,

312
00:12:06.445 --> 00:12:08.445
this is also, I mean,

313
00:12:07.846 --> 00:12:10.687
he always looks at not only the consensus,

314
00:12:11.087 --> 00:12:13.829
but he'll look at the difference in

315
00:12:13.849 --> 00:12:15.849
consensus,

316
00:12:15.450 --> 00:12:17.471
the lower band and the upper band.

317
00:12:18.107 --> 00:12:20.929
And it is crazy when you

318
00:12:20.989 --> 00:12:22.989
look at this company.

319
00:12:25.251 --> 00:12:27.692
As we sit here, well, it's called a
pre-market market close.

320
00:12:28.353 --> 00:12:30.353
More or less, let's just say,

321
00:12:29.373 --> 00:12:31.735
NVIDIA is trading at $126.

322
00:12:32.555 --> 00:12:34.555
That's where it's currently trading.

323
00:12:35.137 --> 00:12:37.137
When you look at the upper band,

324
00:12:38.619 --> 00:12:41.300
the analysts are forecasting that this

325
00:12:41.320 --> 00:12:43.320
company could be trading at,

326
00:12:42.621 --> 00:12:45.222
let's call it $205

327
00:12:45.683 --> 00:12:47.683
per share.

328
00:12:46.683 --> 00:12:48.683
And on the lower side,

329
00:12:47.704 --> 00:12:50.425
there's some that actually feel it could
be trading, you know,

330
00:12:50.425 --> 00:12:52.425
about $60 to $70.

331
00:12:52.106 --> 00:12:54.106
Oh, no.

332
00:12:52.766 --> 00:12:54.766
Come on now.

333
00:12:53.386 --> 00:12:55.386
What's it going to halve, in other words?

334
00:12:55.607 --> 00:12:57.607
Well, you know,

335
00:12:57.648 --> 00:13:00.269
I'm not going to diss that person's, you
know,

336
00:13:00.369 --> 00:13:02.369
recommendation because, I mean,

337
00:13:02.630 --> 00:13:04.771
any person that said that

338
00:13:05.512 --> 00:13:08.153
Cisco will be

339
00:13:08.373 --> 00:13:10.934
halving in 2000, you know,

340
00:13:11.134 --> 00:13:13.134
you would have had most probably the same.

341
00:13:13.936 --> 00:13:15.936
Same replies.

342
00:13:15.997 --> 00:13:17.997
And it did.

343
00:13:16.517 --> 00:13:18.517
It didn't only fall 50%.

344
00:13:18.058 --> 00:13:20.859
It fell 76% in the

345
00:13:20.899 --> 00:13:22.899
next two years.

346
00:13:21.620 --> 00:13:24.541
So anyway, what goes up can go down.

347
00:13:24.781 --> 00:13:26.781
So let's see.

348
00:13:26.402 --> 00:13:28.402
I think it's going to be an interesting
day.

349
00:13:27.563 --> 00:13:29.563
It certainly will be.

350
00:13:28.163 --> 00:13:30.905
And you've got the high pressure, which is
the bullish stance,

351
00:13:30.925 --> 00:13:32.925
and the low pressure, which is the bearish
stance,

352
00:13:33.186 --> 00:13:36.088
in the form of options and futures and
every other derivative you

353
00:13:36.088 --> 00:13:38.088
can conjure up.

354
00:13:37.048 --> 00:13:39.048
And the two come together.

355
00:13:38.949 --> 00:13:40.949
Big storm.

356
00:13:39.930 --> 00:13:41.930
Big storm.

357
00:13:40.790 --> 00:13:42.790
Now then, Scott.

358
00:13:41.351 --> 00:13:43.351
We've got to wait for that.

359
00:13:42.291 --> 00:13:44.291
We're going to have to wait for that.

360
00:13:44.112 --> 00:13:46.112
That's going to be good.

361
00:13:45.112 --> 00:13:47.112
Are you involved in it, though?

362
00:13:46.952 --> 00:13:48.952
No, no, no.

363
00:13:48.813 --> 00:13:50.813
I don't have it in a video,

364
00:13:49.953 --> 00:13:52.854
so it's easy to sit on the sideline and
watch it

365
00:13:52.874 --> 00:13:54.874
like it is.

366
00:13:53.254 --> 00:13:55.254
And have some fun, yeah, exactly.

367
00:13:54.994 --> 00:13:56.995
Okay, let's have a look at some market
prices now.

368
00:13:57.055 --> 00:13:59.796
The dollar round, that's more or less
unchanged,

369
00:14:00.776 --> 00:14:02.776
slightly stronger for the dollar.

370
00:14:02.156 --> 00:14:04.677
1780, that exchange rate.

371
00:14:05.197 --> 00:14:07.798
The British pound against the round is
2351,

372
00:14:07.798 --> 00:14:09.958
and the euro round is 1981.

373
00:14:10.179 --> 00:14:12.179
Euro dollar, 111.28.

374
00:14:12.443 --> 00:14:14.443
What else have we got here?

375
00:14:13.571 --> 00:14:15.571
Gold price.

376
00:14:14.571 --> 00:14:16.571
That's down $8.50 to

377
00:14:16.452 --> 00:14:18.452
$25.07.

378
00:14:18.413 --> 00:14:20.413
And platinum, down $17.

379
00:14:20.393 --> 00:14:22.393
These white metals worry me.

380
00:14:21.334 --> 00:14:23.334
$9.42,

381
00:14:23.115 --> 00:14:25.115
down 1.75%.

382
00:14:24.915 --> 00:14:27.656
And palladium, down 1.3% to

383
00:14:27.656 --> 00:14:29.997
$9.46.

384
00:14:29.997 --> 00:14:31.997
Okay,

385
00:14:30.398 --> 00:14:33.359
other commodities of importance for South
Africa and

386
00:14:33.519 --> 00:14:35.519
for the world.

387
00:14:34.879 --> 00:14:37.641
Oil price, thank goodness, coming down
after the Libya scare.

388
00:14:38.121 --> 00:14:40.121
That was brief.

389
00:14:38.701 --> 00:14:40.701
$78.88,

390
00:14:40.542 --> 00:14:42.542
which is down 0.8%.

391
00:14:42.343 --> 00:14:44.343
And the West Texas.

392
00:14:43.847 --> 00:14:45.847
$74.83,

393
00:14:45.768 --> 00:14:47.768
down 0.9%.

394
00:14:47.769 --> 00:14:50.371
Elsewhere, copper down 3.3%.

395
00:14:51.251 --> 00:14:53.251
That's the one that really stands out.

396
00:14:53.973 --> 00:14:55.973
S&P 500 futures ahead of NVIDIA,

397
00:14:55.793 --> 00:14:58.255
56.49,

398
00:14:58.255 --> 00:15:00.255
which is just very slightly higher.

399
00:15:00.776 --> 00:15:03.558
The US 10-year Treasury bond yield is

400
00:15:03.558 --> 00:15:05.558
3.83%.

401
00:15:05.879 --> 00:15:07.879
And what else have we got?

402
00:15:06.879 --> 00:15:08.879
The South African 10-year,

403
00:15:07.380 --> 00:15:10.561
9.33%.

404
00:15:11.002 --> 00:15:13.223
Bitcoin price has been under huge pressure
today.

405
00:15:13.683 --> 00:15:16.625
It's down 5.4% to $58,000,

406
00:15:16.625 --> 00:15:20.448
$575,000,

407
00:15:20.448 --> 00:15:22.448
something like that.

408
00:15:21.509 --> 00:15:23.509
Okay, good.

409
00:15:22.510 --> 00:15:24.510
What else have we got, Skulk?

410
00:15:25.232 --> 00:15:27.894
You're going to give us, rather, the JSC
closing indices,

411
00:15:27.894 --> 00:15:30.436
but the one that really stands out, and
for all the wrong reasons,

412
00:15:30.856 --> 00:15:32.856
resources.

413
00:15:31.576 --> 00:15:34.058
I know in London they were smashed as well
today,

414
00:15:34.859 --> 00:15:36.859
but that doesn't bode well.

415
00:15:37.201 --> 00:15:39.201
No, not at all.

416
00:15:39.562 --> 00:15:41.562
Yeah, click, click.

417
00:15:40.723 --> 00:15:43.305
The clear economic growth worry is still

418
00:15:43.806 --> 00:15:45.806
very much persistent.

419
00:15:44.967 --> 00:15:46.967
I mean, I think what was it?

420
00:15:46.688 --> 00:15:48.690
A bulletin came out,

421
00:15:48.790 --> 00:15:50.790
was it earlier this week?

422
00:15:50.892 --> 00:15:52.892
Yes.

423
00:15:51.012 --> 00:15:53.954
And the CEO mentioned… I think it was a 2%
rise in

424
00:15:53.994 --> 00:15:55.994
profit or revenue.

425
00:15:54.755 --> 00:15:56.755
I can't remember what the metric was.

426
00:15:56.276 --> 00:15:58.276
But anyway, it was pretty slack.

427
00:15:59.239 --> 00:16:01.239
He gave me the idea that

428
00:16:04.103 --> 00:16:06.745
the supply will still outstrip the

429
00:16:06.785 --> 00:16:08.785
demand specifically for something like
copper.

430
00:16:09.147 --> 00:16:11.489
this year, but they're building towards in

431
00:16:11.489 --> 00:16:13.489
2025,

432
00:16:13.310 --> 00:16:15.310
2026,

433
00:16:14.731 --> 00:16:16.733
where they do see things picking up again.

434
00:16:17.113 --> 00:16:19.113
But as you mentioned, I mean,

435
00:16:18.854 --> 00:16:21.616
if it was white metal, if it was yellow
metal,

436
00:16:21.816 --> 00:16:23.816
if it doesn't matter which metal,

437
00:16:23.518 --> 00:16:25.518
even if, you know,

438
00:16:25.899 --> 00:16:27.899
altogether Brent or

439
00:16:28.281 --> 00:16:30.281
Sassl, it was under pressure.

440
00:16:30.543 --> 00:16:32.543
As you mentioned, you know,

441
00:16:31.523 --> 00:16:34.325
the resource index today dropped 2.5%.

442
00:16:34.626 --> 00:16:36.626
What a bad performance.

443
00:16:36.867 --> 00:16:38.867
And we can find out why right now.

444
00:16:38.628 --> 00:16:40.888
Let's go for the gainers first on the JSC
scale.

445
00:16:41.108 --> 00:16:43.629
A Bidcore, great performance, 4.5% up.

446
00:16:44.229 --> 00:16:46.229
Remgrove up 1.8%.

447
00:16:46.730 --> 00:16:49.471
Outsurance 1.7% to the good.

448
00:16:50.311 --> 00:16:52.311
Aspen 1.2% up.

449
00:16:52.211 --> 00:16:54.252
Motus up 1.2%.

450
00:16:54.252 --> 00:16:56.393
Impala Platinum on the downside, leading
the way,

451
00:16:56.573 --> 00:16:58.573
5.5% weaker.

452
00:16:58.533 --> 00:17:01.154
Sebanye, the same, 5.5% in the red.

453
00:17:01.274 --> 00:17:03.274
Northerns, 5.4%.

454
00:17:03.194 --> 00:17:05.215
Anglo-American Platinum, 4.5%.

455
00:17:05.567 --> 00:17:08.268
and anglo gold ashanti down 3.6 a

456
00:17:08.708 --> 00:17:11.669
shocker of a day any stocks outside of
those skulk

457
00:17:12.809 --> 00:17:15.530
yeah i think um well anglo

458
00:17:15.590 --> 00:17:18.311
gold i just remember that the ex of story
oh

459
00:17:18.511 --> 00:17:21.472
okay so so that's that's sort of looking
on a

460
00:17:21.492 --> 00:17:23.733
better side impala platinum um

461
00:17:24.093 --> 00:17:26.153
the biggest biggest loser for today

462
00:17:26.854 --> 00:17:28.974
that seems currently it seems

463
00:17:29.294 --> 00:17:31.435
highly highly likely that um

464
00:17:31.855 --> 00:17:34.737
impala will be falling out of the the
south african index

465
00:17:34.777 --> 00:17:37.758
so that that that's uh that's that's most

466
00:17:37.778 --> 00:17:40.600
probably one of the big reasons why we see
impala platinum it's not

467
00:17:41.120 --> 00:17:43.722
done and dusted yet but as it currently
stand if things remain

468
00:17:43.822 --> 00:17:46.483
unchanged they will fall out of the south
african index

469
00:17:46.643 --> 00:17:49.385
and i think that will be most probably the
main reason why it got

470
00:17:49.845 --> 00:17:52.666
hurt a lot more than some of these other
other and

471
00:17:52.666 --> 00:17:55.388
then naturally you know king calls the
other one that's also extra

472
00:17:55.528 --> 00:17:57.528
but be

473
00:17:56.629 --> 00:17:59.570
as it may it's been a horrible horrible

474
00:17:59.610 --> 00:18:01.610
day if you had anything

475
00:18:01.131 --> 00:18:03.393
anything remotely connected to
commodities.

476
00:18:03.753 --> 00:18:06.275
Let's have those indices, if you will, and
also the value traded.

477
00:18:07.356 --> 00:18:09.617
So the JSE all share closed today at

478
00:18:09.718 --> 00:18:12.239
84,019 points.

479
00:18:12.620 --> 00:18:14.620
That is down 63 basis points.

480
00:18:14.441 --> 00:18:16.441
I mentioned there,

481
00:18:15.382 --> 00:18:17.463
there were resources down 2.5%,

482
00:18:17.623 --> 00:18:20.426
while the industrials also down 37 basis

483
00:18:20.486 --> 00:18:22.486
points.

484
00:18:20.926 --> 00:18:23.908
The RAND that remained at these solid
levels,

485
00:18:23.928 --> 00:18:26.910
and we also said that it's sort of a
return

486
00:18:26.991 --> 00:18:28.991
to these...

487
00:18:27.871 --> 00:18:29.871
SA Inc.

488
00:18:28.431 --> 00:18:30.431
type of company, which is always good for
financials.

489
00:18:30.473 --> 00:18:33.334
Financials closed today positive,

490
00:18:33.914 --> 00:18:36.736
positive 0.16% up for today.

491
00:18:36.776 --> 00:18:39.017
And as earlier, you mentioned earlier,

492
00:18:39.337 --> 00:18:41.337
SA Property,

493
00:18:40.558 --> 00:18:43.520
they didn't care one bit for the

494
00:18:43.540 --> 00:18:45.540
market retracing again up

495
00:18:45.961 --> 00:18:47.961
30 basis points.

496
00:18:46.882 --> 00:18:48.882
When you look at the value traded for the
market,

497
00:18:49.123 --> 00:18:51.704
market traded over 21 billion today.

498
00:18:51.724 --> 00:18:53.724
So not a slow day.

499
00:18:53.045 --> 00:18:55.045
Actually, not a bad day at all.

500
00:18:55.306 --> 00:18:57.306
But yeah, as we mentioned tonight.

501
00:18:57.087 --> 00:18:59.087
We're sitting, we're waiting for Navidia.

502
00:18:58.788 --> 00:19:00.788
Unfortunately, I think it's going to be
after hours.

503
00:19:00.450 --> 00:19:02.450
So, yeah, let's see.

504
00:19:02.071 --> 00:19:04.071
Let's see how they play.

505
00:19:03.352 --> 00:19:05.494
Skull, good luck on Saturday with the
rugby.

506
00:19:06.014 --> 00:19:08.014
And also wrap up warm tonight.

507
00:19:07.636 --> 00:19:10.618
Skullclaw is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth

508
00:19:10.738 --> 00:19:12.738
Old Oak in Cape Town.

509
00:19:11.799 --> 00:19:13.799
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

510
00:19:13.864 --> 00:19:16.606
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of

511
00:19:16.666 --> 00:19:19.588
Lindsay Williams and various contributors
and

512
00:19:19.608 --> 00:19:21.608
do not reflect the policy,

513
00:19:20.929 --> 00:19:23.551
position or opinion of any other agency,

514
00:19:23.791 --> 00:19:25.791
organisation,

515
00:19:24.872 --> 00:19:27.753
employer or company associated with

516
00:19:27.793 --> 00:19:29.793
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

517
00:19:29.975 --> 00:19:32.417
Assumptions made on the analyses are not

518
00:19:32.537 --> 00:19:35.479
reflective of the position of any other
entity other

519
00:19:35.519 --> 00:19:37.519
than the speaker or the author.

520
00:19:37.240 --> 00:19:39.742
And since we are critically thinking human
beings,

521
00:19:40.102 --> 00:19:42.443
these views are always subject to change,

522
00:19:42.724 --> 00:19:44.724
revision and revision.

523
00:19:43.464 --> 00:19:45.464
and rethinking at any time.

524
00:19:45.568 --> 00:19:47.972
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
