WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast

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with Lindsay Williams.

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The DNC, that's the Democratic

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National Convention, has recently
concluded.

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It was held in Chicago,

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and it was an affair that has been
described as being

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joyous, hopeful, energetic.

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I watched quite a lot of the interviews, I
must admit,

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in the last four nights, and it was
certainly interesting.

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It followed up, and of course, on the RNC,

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that's the Republican National Convention.

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And now...

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we have to get to the serious business of
getting down to who's going

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to win the US general election.

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With me is Philip Saunders,

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director of the Investment Institute at 91

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in London.

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It's interesting watching from afar, isn't
it?

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Because we're not as involved as the
Americans are,

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obviously, Philip,

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but it's quite insightful to see how they
do things

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compared to, for example, Britain.

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You know, absolutely.

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And I think that the American political

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setup is unique.

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It's, you know, as Churchill said,

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it's democracy is the least bad system.

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And the American form of democracy

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works in ways that we often find

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mysterious.

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Yes, indeed.

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When you consider three or four very small

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states compared to, say, California,

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can swing an election.

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And that doesn't seem right to us, does
it?

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Not at all.

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And I think that this is what people
forget,

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that a lot of votes just simply don't

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matter in the states.

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I suppose they don't matter so much in the
UK as well,

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but for different reasons.

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And it's the swing states that

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that's essentially where the battle is
going to be won or

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lost by either of the candidates.

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And so really,

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it's how they're doing in those states
will

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critically determine the outcome.

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That's not a great system,

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but it is a system and it's a system that
they

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have.

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As I said in my introduction,

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we've had both of the conventions of the
two major parties,

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and it's neck and neck.

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I mean, maybe

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Harris is a couple of points ahead in a
national

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poll of polls,

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but there's something like a 3.7% margin
of

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error.

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So it is neck and neck.

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So it's all up to the swing states.

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We don't have to comment on politics and
who we think should

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win or who we want to win.

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We've got to now look at the outcome.

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Should Harris win?

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And should Trump win?

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What would...

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A new Trump presidency mean for the
markets,

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for American society, for the world
indeed?

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Well,

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I think that probably somewhat different
to

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the previous Trump presidency.

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And in the sense that it'll be

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more about his people, you know,

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they'll be more organized than they were
before.

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And if you look back, actually,

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the previous Trump presidency and strip
away all of the

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sturm and drang.

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Actually,

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he was a fairly conventional right-wing

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Republican president.

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And I think that we'd probably get the
same again.

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I think what's interesting to think about
also is

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who gets control of the

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Senate and Congress.

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And although obviously the

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presidential contest is very

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sort of too close to call at the moment,

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if you look at...

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the likely outcomes for the Senate and

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Congress.

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It looks as if the

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Republicans are on track to

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retain the Congress and gain the

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Senate.

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And I think that that would put Trump

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in an unusually strong position.

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And that means that he would be able to

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affect more of his policies.

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Whereas if Harris was to win,

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and the Republicans gain control of the
Senate and

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continue to control Congress,

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then it's very difficult to see her being
able to do

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very much.

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And so therefore,

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which might not be a bad thing for markets
and the economy,

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but again, it'd be a very different
situation.

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I remember back in 2015,

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end of 2015,

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when Trump was declared the winner of

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that election and then only went

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2016 to 2020, four years.

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of his stewardship of the world's largest
economy.

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I remember when it became clear that he
had won,

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Dow Jones futures plunged by over a
thousand

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points,

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and the thousand points in those days was
a real thousand points.

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And then suddenly people said, wait a
second,

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he's going to cut corporate taxes,

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he's going to cut taxes for the people
that he sees

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as really mattering in the United States,
and up they went again.

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Do you think the same thing might happen
again,

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apart from the plunge in the first place?

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Well, I think to some extent, obviously,
the...

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markets learn or market participants do
actually learn,

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not everything, but they learn from their
experience.

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And so therefore...

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I think the sort of plunge caused by the

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possibility of Trump clearly winning would
be,

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you know, I think less likely.

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But, you know, one way or another,

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you might not like his style and his
rhetoric,

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but he basically is clearly a pro-business

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president or would be a pro-business
president.

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I think that he would extend the tax cuts

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that he put in place in

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2017.

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But his ability to sort of pull more
levers of that kind,

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you know, is obviously somewhat
constrained.

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But yes, pro-business,

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a much more transactional approach to

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policymaking.

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Let's have a look now at the US dollar and
interest rates, because

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J.D. Vance said the other day,

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he said the people in government, in other
words,

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hopefully him and Trump from his point of
view,

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they should have more influence over the
monetary policy of the

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United States.

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In other words,

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they're going to be on the phone to Powell
and saying, wait, cut.

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interest rates, please,

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which is obviously bad for the dollar,

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good for commodities and all other
markets,

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bonds in particular.

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Could that happen?

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Well, I think that, you know,

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there is a longer term issue about, you
know,

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when governments,

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government debt levels reach extreme

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levels, then, you know,

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can you have independent central banks?

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And simply because you basically have to
if you like,

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sort of keep the show on the road.

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And having an independent central bank,
you know,

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is a problem.

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So

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I think that this is probably just
rhetoric.

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I think that the Fed's independence,

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you know, is unlikely to be sort of

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impacted, really.

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However, you know,

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all political parties put pressure

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on the Fed.

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You know,

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the Democrats basically are the same.

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So I don't think that that in particular

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would impact things.

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I think inflation under a sort of Trump

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administration would probably have a
tendency to be somewhat

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higher.

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And that actually might be dollar
supportive, interestingly,

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because the Fed,

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unless it's pressured otherwise,

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would have to basically compensate for a
more

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fiscally loose policy by maintaining

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a tighter monetary policy.

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Let's move now, if we can, to Harris.

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The thousand point plunge that I
referenced

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when Trump was first the winner all those
years ago.

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It could happen again with the Democrats
led by

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Harris, couldn't it?

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That seems to be a more likely scenario.

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And then after that, who knows?

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But it wouldn't be well received by the
market participants,

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I don't think.

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Yeah, so I think that at this stage,

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as I said before, I think both, you know,
the...

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the winning candidate has always tacked

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successfully towards the center.

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And so therefore, you know,

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Trump has got to tone down his more
radical

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rhetoric, as has

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Harris.

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And so therefore, that's, you know,

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it's really, you know,

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potential extremes that markets react

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badly to.

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And I think that, you know, it's different
this time because,

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you know, we've seen Trump as president,

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you know.

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How much worse can it be,

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so to speak?

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Harris basically is a continuity
candidate.

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So we've seen Biden,

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although basically at the moment it's

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probably continued to be a pretty policy
light

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campaign from Harris.

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By and large, you know,

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the Biden programme, you know, has been,
you know,

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it's pretty detailed.

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It's out there.

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You know, clearly, you know,

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he went through a sort of campaigning
process.

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well.

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And that's typically when policy tends to
be

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decided.

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So, you know, she might tinker at the
edges,

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but by and large, she's a continuity
candidate.

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Okay, so all up for grabs,

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just over 70 days to go.

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Do you at 91, look at this and say,

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we have to monitor this very, very
closely?

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And are you mindful of the fact that one
winner

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may mean a different strategy?

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to if the other one wins and therefore you
have to tweak your

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portfolios?

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Or do you just say everything will be
fine,

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it'll all settle down,

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and they both have leant towards the
centre and that's why they're

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in the position they are?

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I'm being a bit clumsy with this question,

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but do you take cognisance of it?

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Yes, I mean, I think that it's, you know,

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because I think we've got some very
significant political changes

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going on.

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So therefore,

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and we haven't mentioned geopolitics, but,
you know,

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obviously that's a pretty live issue as

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well.

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And so therefore,

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I think that politics has a heightened
importance.

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And so as investors,

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we've got to be ruthlessly objective.

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as ever, but I think it matters more.

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But it's one component of

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thinking about the sort of, you know,

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context of

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one's sort of tactical and strategic asset

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allocation.

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And actually, you know, Trump, if you
like,

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is the disruptor type candidate.

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But then again, sort of, you know,

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the Democrats have been

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extremely fiscally lax.

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you know, the numbers looking forwards are
really

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uncomfortable.

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And that as investors, you know,

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remembering the bond vigilantes,

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that as investors is something we have to
pay attention to.

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So how you diversify your portfolio
basically

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does have a political relevance simply
because of the size of

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government debt these days,

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and also because of the sort of fractious

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nature of international relations.

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You mentioned geopolitics,

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and it was remiss of me not to talk about
that because Trump made a comment.

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during the DNC.

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He says, can you imagine

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Harris negotiating with President Xi?

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Then he mentioned Kim Jong-un for some
extraordinary reason.

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He mentioned Putin for a not so
extraordinary

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reason.

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But yeah,

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would they take us seriously, do you
think, Philip?

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Well, I think that, you know, in a way,

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basically all that side really has been
managed by

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people other than Biden.

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Blinken,

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in other words.

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with Blinken and the various other people

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around him.

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And so

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I would suspect that she would basically
be

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more of a sort of figurehead, whereas

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Trump believes in, you know,

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looking them in the eye and sort of he
believes that

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basically personality can have a
significant

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impact.

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And the other thing is, so he's more
hands-on,

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clearly.

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Whether that's a good or a bad thing, you
know,

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depends.

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But he is highly transactional.

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So therefore, you know,

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these sort of outrageous sort of comments
about

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tariffs of, you know,

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sky high and so forth, you know,

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that's a negotiating position.

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So in reality,

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I think that it's going to be a much more

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transactional relationship and much

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more sort of about bilateral negotiations.

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I mean,

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the Democrats are being dragged in that
direction at any

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rate, but they are basically sort of.

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you know, for more of the same,

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whereas Trump basically will be back on
the case

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for, you know,

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not allowing America to subsidise

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European defence, for example, to the
extent that it does already.

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Thank you very much for your insight.

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Philip Saunders is director of the

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Investment Institute at 91 in London.

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The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of

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Lindsay Williams and various contributors
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views of the European Commission.

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Assumptions made on the analyses are not

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reflective of the position of any other
entity other

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than the speaker or the author.

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And since we are critically thinking human
beings,

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revision, and rethinking at any time.

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