WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.404 --> 00:00:03.126 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast 2 00:00:03.406 --> 00:00:05.406 with Lindsay Williams. 3 00:00:05.028 --> 00:00:07.028 The JSE has closed its doors for another day, 4 00:00:06.889 --> 00:00:08.889 so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow. 5 00:00:08.570 --> 00:00:10.570 And as it's a Thursday, 6 00:00:09.611 --> 00:00:12.213 it's the doubleheader Dream Team edition with Viv 7 00:00:12.313 --> 00:00:15.175 Govender from Ranswift and David Shapira from 8 00:00:15.275 --> 00:00:17.275 Sasfin Securities. Viv, 9 00:00:17.237 --> 00:00:19.258 I will start with you because on the local front, 10 00:00:19.298 --> 00:00:21.320 we've had a really quite surprisingly good 11 00:00:21.840 --> 00:00:24.162 inflation print down to 4.6% from 12 00:00:24.282 --> 00:00:26.282 5.2%. 13 00:00:25.263 --> 00:00:27.263 The market was expecting 4.8%. 14 00:00:27.364 --> 00:00:29.364 So on September the 19th, 15 00:00:28.965 --> 00:00:31.307 when the Reserve Bank next meets, 16 00:00:31.847 --> 00:00:34.769 then there's a good chance that there'll be a half 17 00:00:34.769 --> 00:00:36.769 a percent cut, I would have thought, 18 00:00:37.371 --> 00:00:39.852 or a quarter at least, from the South African Reserve Bank. 19 00:00:40.093 --> 00:00:42.494 And incidentally, that's a day after the Fed meets, 20 00:00:42.874 --> 00:00:45.716 and the Fed's minutes were published yesterday, 21 00:00:45.736 --> 00:00:47.736 I think it was. 22 00:00:46.697 --> 00:00:49.359 And it seems to me that there's a consensus that they will 23 00:00:49.939 --> 00:00:51.939 cut. 24 00:00:50.580 --> 00:00:52.580 Would you agree with these sentiments? 25 00:00:53.201 --> 00:00:55.803 Yeah, I mean, I don't know if you saw the Labour Department report that came out. 26 00:00:56.083 --> 00:00:58.083 Yes. 27 00:00:57.596 --> 00:00:59.596 Yes. 28 00:00:58.396 --> 00:01:00.396 And so basically, 29 00:00:59.717 --> 00:01:01.717 I was always saying for the last year now, 30 00:01:01.677 --> 00:01:04.358 I don't know if I said it in the show or not, 31 00:01:04.438 --> 00:01:06.438 but it doesn't make sense. 32 00:01:05.778 --> 00:01:08.619 It did not make sense to me how you had an unemployment rate 33 00:01:08.779 --> 00:01:11.500 as low as it was, how you had job creation as high as it was, 34 00:01:11.900 --> 00:01:13.900 and wages weren't increasing. 35 00:01:14.241 --> 00:01:16.241 It made no sense. 36 00:01:15.061 --> 00:01:17.061 Inflation was super high. 37 00:01:17.161 --> 00:01:19.161 People were losing purchasing power. 38 00:01:19.102 --> 00:01:22.043 Why were they not asking for higher wages when there was basically 39 00:01:22.083 --> 00:01:24.083 no slack in the job market? 40 00:01:23.583 --> 00:01:25.583 It turned out there was. 41 00:01:24.403 --> 00:01:26.944 It turned out there was about 60 something thousand. 42 00:01:27.164 --> 00:01:29.785 jobs per month that would be over counted and 43 00:01:30.146 --> 00:01:32.847 this is the biggest you know over counting they've had since 44 00:01:32.867 --> 00:01:34.867 basically 2009. 45 00:01:34.268 --> 00:01:37.030 now i'm not saying this is 2009 2009 remember when this stuff was 46 00:01:37.030 --> 00:01:39.791 happening 2009 they already had multiple months 47 00:01:39.911 --> 00:01:42.553 of you know dropping gdp and you know everything was 48 00:01:42.713 --> 00:01:45.514 pretty clear in the recession but it does show the u.s economy is 49 00:01:45.534 --> 00:01:48.236 much weaker than we thought inflation is coming down 50 00:01:48.476 --> 00:01:51.237 i think pretty much it's a guarantee at this 51 00:01:51.297 --> 00:01:53.819 moment that we're going to have a cut in uh 52 00:01:53.819 --> 00:01:56.424 you know the next bid meeting and here's the thing I mean, 53 00:01:56.424 --> 00:01:58.424 a couple of weeks ago, 54 00:01:57.084 --> 00:01:59.985 I was looking at the numbers and they were saying there's a one-third chance 55 00:02:00.085 --> 00:02:02.085 of a half percent cut. 56 00:02:01.686 --> 00:02:03.686 And I thought that was ridiculous. 57 00:02:02.966 --> 00:02:04.966 I thought there's almost no chance. 58 00:02:04.206 --> 00:02:06.206 In fact, I was thinking of ways to kind of, you know, 59 00:02:06.307 --> 00:02:08.307 arbitrate because I thought, you know, 60 00:02:07.687 --> 00:02:10.548 if this market has a one-third chance of a half 61 00:02:10.568 --> 00:02:12.889 percent cut, this is obviously not going to happen. 62 00:02:12.949 --> 00:02:14.949 Most of what's going to happen is a quarter, 63 00:02:14.449 --> 00:02:16.449 and there must be some way to make some money off this thing. 64 00:02:16.630 --> 00:02:18.630 And I was looking at that. 65 00:02:18.230 --> 00:02:20.631 But after the labor number, 66 00:02:20.651 --> 00:02:22.651 which I think was kind of expected to come out, 67 00:02:22.751 --> 00:02:25.272 which I hadn't seen in advance, but when it came out, I was surprised by it. 68 00:02:26.196 --> 00:02:28.196 I realize not. 69 00:02:27.217 --> 00:02:29.217 Just to let people know, 70 00:02:28.498 --> 00:02:30.680 the number of jobs was revised downwards. 71 00:02:30.920 --> 00:02:33.542 Was it something like 808,000 or something? 72 00:02:33.542 --> 00:02:35.542 Was it something ridiculous like that? 73 00:02:35.904 --> 00:02:37.904 Yeah. 74 00:02:36.425 --> 00:02:38.425 It's basically, 75 00:02:38.506 --> 00:02:40.528 they had over 60,000 on average 76 00:02:41.108 --> 00:02:43.651 jobs less per month over the last year. 77 00:02:43.911 --> 00:02:45.911 Okay. 78 00:02:44.831 --> 00:02:46.831 How do they make those mistakes? 79 00:02:46.473 --> 00:02:48.473 How do they make those mistakes? 80 00:02:50.316 --> 00:02:53.238 I think the market just takes it in its stride. 81 00:02:53.278 --> 00:02:55.278 I think there are a lot of other gauges. 82 00:02:54.960 --> 00:02:56.960 Yes. 83 00:02:55.724 --> 00:02:58.406 Viv said, I think most economists, 84 00:02:58.426 --> 00:03:00.888 there was something I was reading from Capital Economics. 85 00:03:01.348 --> 00:03:04.190 They said that this makes sense because they look at something 86 00:03:04.290 --> 00:03:07.232 called, I'm trying to read it, 87 00:03:07.252 --> 00:03:09.534 quarterly census of employment and wages, 88 00:03:10.034 --> 00:03:12.034 you know, whatever that is. 89 00:03:11.975 --> 00:03:13.975 And they were comparing it and, you know, 90 00:03:13.917 --> 00:03:15.917 now it brings it in line with what they see. 91 00:03:15.798 --> 00:03:17.798 So 92 00:03:17.079 --> 00:03:19.801 I thought there'd be a reaction mainly because the 93 00:03:19.841 --> 00:03:22.703 media can get hold of something like this and blow it out of 94 00:03:22.703 --> 00:03:24.703 proportion, not realizing. 95 00:03:24.480 --> 00:03:27.282 what it's all about but the market just kind of brushed it 96 00:03:27.282 --> 00:03:30.063 aside there was a little bit of a wobble uh 97 00:03:30.063 --> 00:03:32.545 s&p ended up higher nasdaq ended up higher 98 00:03:33.045 --> 00:03:36.007 and it's kind of wavering today all waiting for tomorrow 99 00:03:36.167 --> 00:03:38.167 so um 100 00:03:37.848 --> 00:03:40.549 yeah yeah you're a man of 101 00:03:41.050 --> 00:03:43.771 intelligent man i mean you're a mathematician you've got that 102 00:03:43.771 --> 00:03:46.733 background well i think we you've 103 00:03:46.833 --> 00:03:49.414 got a country that extends 104 00:03:49.795 --> 00:03:51.795 you know as wide as the 105 00:03:52.260 --> 00:03:54.260 the United States is 300 million. 106 00:03:54.121 --> 00:03:57.062 How the heck can you ever get these kind of numbers 107 00:03:57.082 --> 00:03:59.082 to be accurate? 108 00:03:57.922 --> 00:03:59.922 You know, I just 109 00:04:00.944 --> 00:04:02.944 I don't know how one can do it. 110 00:04:02.084 --> 00:04:04.865 I don't know where you've got a model that can predict it with 111 00:04:05.186 --> 00:04:08.147 accuracy, and hence we have to have these kind of adjustments. 112 00:04:08.487 --> 00:04:10.487 So Yeah. 113 00:04:08.727 --> 00:04:11.648 I think this is a good number 114 00:04:11.648 --> 00:04:13.648 for the market. 115 00:04:12.028 --> 00:04:14.950 I think the chance of a half percent rate cut in 116 00:04:14.930 --> 00:04:16.930 the next meeting is probably a third. 117 00:04:17.451 --> 00:04:19.872 I mean, if you think about it, this 118 00:04:20.692 --> 00:04:22.692 We've now had, I think, 119 00:04:21.713 --> 00:04:24.634 and this number officially puts the number of jobs greater than last 120 00:04:24.674 --> 00:04:26.674 year. 121 00:04:25.195 --> 00:04:27.195 We flow the population growth rate. 122 00:04:26.856 --> 00:04:28.856 You know what I mean? 123 00:04:28.677 --> 00:04:31.638 So it's about a half percent of the jobs in 124 00:04:31.638 --> 00:04:33.638 the U.S. 125 00:04:31.998 --> 00:04:34.960 are not there anymore, as what they thought. 126 00:04:35.460 --> 00:04:37.461 So we are looking at the Fed, I think, 127 00:04:37.461 --> 00:04:40.383 having a significant chance of cutting by half percent to the next 128 00:04:40.403 --> 00:04:42.403 meeting. 129 00:04:40.903 --> 00:04:42.903 So that's going to be great. 130 00:04:42.684 --> 00:04:44.684 That'll be great for the markets. 131 00:04:44.505 --> 00:04:46.505 No, I think the market's a bit nervous of that. 132 00:04:46.326 --> 00:04:48.326 Yes. 133 00:04:46.406 --> 00:04:48.406 You know, it might. 134 00:04:49.628 --> 00:04:52.571 be an overstatement 135 00:04:52.571 --> 00:04:54.571 or they might be overly worried. 136 00:04:55.621 --> 00:04:57.621 So, look, whatever it is, 137 00:04:57.502 --> 00:04:59.502 I think we'll accept whatever. 138 00:04:59.222 --> 00:05:01.222 Half percent, quarter percent, 139 00:05:00.923 --> 00:05:02.923 I think the market will be satisfied. 140 00:05:02.463 --> 00:05:04.463 Okay, we're on track. 141 00:05:03.984 --> 00:05:05.984 But, David, you make a very good point. 142 00:05:06.024 --> 00:05:08.024 You make a very good point. 143 00:05:06.904 --> 00:05:09.625 What will happen if it was a half a percent in Viv's world? 144 00:05:09.825 --> 00:05:11.926 The market would immediately go shooting up, 145 00:05:12.246 --> 00:05:14.246 and then people would say, half a percent. 146 00:05:14.427 --> 00:05:16.427 Do they know something that we don't? 147 00:05:16.207 --> 00:05:18.288 That makes me a bit nervous, and then comes back down. 148 00:05:18.688 --> 00:05:20.688 You see that so many times. 149 00:05:20.008 --> 00:05:22.008 But, yeah, half a percent, so what? 150 00:05:22.189 --> 00:05:24.189 The rates are too high. 151 00:05:23.525 --> 00:05:26.426 Five and a quarter to five and a half percent target range for the Fed funds 152 00:05:26.486 --> 00:05:28.486 rate. 153 00:05:27.007 --> 00:05:29.007 It is way too high. 154 00:05:29.227 --> 00:05:31.227 There are other indicators, 155 00:05:30.868 --> 00:05:33.649 and I'm going back to what Viv said about employment, 156 00:05:34.129 --> 00:05:36.129 you know, 157 00:05:34.490 --> 00:05:37.471 looking at why is nobody demanding higher wages and 158 00:05:37.491 --> 00:05:39.491 so on. 159 00:05:39.111 --> 00:05:41.111 What captured my imagination, 160 00:05:41.072 --> 00:05:44.054 what I looked at was the Walmart results and 161 00:05:44.094 --> 00:05:46.795 again, Target, where they are, 162 00:05:47.235 --> 00:05:49.235 you know, where people are now buying down. 163 00:05:49.736 --> 00:05:52.217 They're much more cautious about where they're spending. 164 00:05:52.605 --> 00:05:54.605 And I mean, 165 00:05:52.985 --> 00:05:55.626 this comes from the companies themselves looking for 166 00:05:55.686 --> 00:05:57.686 bargains. 167 00:05:57.107 --> 00:05:59.668 I would imagine they're going for house brands rather than 168 00:05:59.748 --> 00:06:02.289 recognized brands, which are slightly higher, 169 00:06:02.429 --> 00:06:04.429 the cheaper they can get it. 170 00:06:04.250 --> 00:06:06.631 And of course, today, nobody really cares. 171 00:06:06.671 --> 00:06:09.452 So I think there is pressure on the 172 00:06:09.512 --> 00:06:12.373 bottom end of the market and might even be in the middle of the market 173 00:06:12.413 --> 00:06:14.413 as well, 174 00:06:13.253 --> 00:06:16.155 where people are more conscious of where 175 00:06:16.175 --> 00:06:18.175 their money goes. 176 00:06:17.055 --> 00:06:19.596 That doesn't mean that, you know, there's job, 177 00:06:19.796 --> 00:06:22.593 when I say job securities, that people have you know, 178 00:06:22.613 --> 00:06:25.336 have got abundance of cash, their savings are up and so on. 179 00:06:25.336 --> 00:06:27.336 It does, you know, 180 00:06:26.477 --> 00:06:28.959 it does point towards a 181 00:06:29.019 --> 00:06:31.019 weakening economy. 182 00:06:31.581 --> 00:06:33.581 All right, David, stay with you on this one, 183 00:06:33.523 --> 00:06:35.945 because there's been a raft of results. 184 00:06:36.485 --> 00:06:39.428 And so many trading statements and operational 185 00:06:39.488 --> 00:06:42.450 updates and things like Sibani Stillwater coming out 186 00:06:42.470 --> 00:06:45.153 today and saying, well, we've secured 500 million. 187 00:06:45.693 --> 00:06:47.693 Green financing, I don't know what that is, 188 00:06:47.934 --> 00:06:49.934 rands or dollars, 189 00:06:48.754 --> 00:06:51.635 it just says 500 million because of that lithium mine that they 190 00:06:52.355 --> 00:06:55.156 very cleverly bought in Finland and it was only clever for about a 191 00:06:55.196 --> 00:06:57.196 year. 192 00:06:56.936 --> 00:06:59.637 Lithium prices collapse and just are still 193 00:07:00.117 --> 00:07:02.117 down in the doldrums. 194 00:07:01.477 --> 00:07:03.477 But today we've had Adcock, 195 00:07:03.198 --> 00:07:05.198 Ingram and Cashfield. 196 00:07:04.938 --> 00:07:06.938 But prior to that, 197 00:07:06.079 --> 00:07:08.119 the last two weeks has been absolutely packed. 198 00:07:08.519 --> 00:07:10.519 What has been the theme? 199 00:07:09.380 --> 00:07:12.280 I said to somebody yesterday, okay, the same question. 200 00:07:12.640 --> 00:07:14.640 And I said, has it been good, bad or ugly? 201 00:07:14.861 --> 00:07:16.861 And he says there's no bad and there's no ugly. 202 00:07:16.803 --> 00:07:19.205 It's been generally a good reporting period. 203 00:07:19.445 --> 00:07:21.445 Would you concur? 204 00:07:21.787 --> 00:07:23.787 There are issues. 205 00:07:23.008 --> 00:07:25.008 There's no doubt the issues. 206 00:07:24.249 --> 00:07:26.249 I mean, 207 00:07:26.230 --> 00:07:28.230 we're coming off a low base. 208 00:07:28.352 --> 00:07:30.352 So that has also, 209 00:07:30.674 --> 00:07:32.674 I don't want to say exaggerated, 210 00:07:32.095 --> 00:07:34.497 but it's made results look a little bit better 211 00:07:34.897 --> 00:07:37.600 because we've come from, as I say, a low base. 212 00:07:38.040 --> 00:07:40.040 There's nothing knockout there. 213 00:07:40.242 --> 00:07:42.324 And nor are the statements, 214 00:07:42.744 --> 00:07:44.744 the outlook statements. 215 00:07:44.389 --> 00:07:46.389 You know, 216 00:07:45.150 --> 00:07:47.392 pointing towards a massive 217 00:07:47.952 --> 00:07:50.354 amount of consumer consumption, 218 00:07:50.414 --> 00:07:52.414 what is driving the market. 219 00:07:52.996 --> 00:07:55.819 And I'm surprised because I looked at EPSA's 220 00:07:55.859 --> 00:07:57.859 results where the numbers were poor. 221 00:07:58.981 --> 00:08:00.981 They were negative, showing strain. 222 00:08:00.983 --> 00:08:02.983 Admittedly, 223 00:08:02.624 --> 00:08:04.624 on the right-down side of it, 224 00:08:04.746 --> 00:08:06.746 the impairment side, 225 00:08:06.868 --> 00:08:08.868 I'm talking about loans. 226 00:08:09.070 --> 00:08:11.912 They were kind of flat, 227 00:08:12.353 --> 00:08:14.353 but... 228 00:08:13.089 --> 00:08:15.089 the share price goes up five, six, 229 00:08:14.769 --> 00:08:16.769 seven percent and so on. 230 00:08:16.650 --> 00:08:18.650 You know, everybody's, oh, this is too cheap. 231 00:08:18.671 --> 00:08:20.671 This is ridiculously cheap. 232 00:08:20.371 --> 00:08:22.772 So you've been getting those kind of attitudes. 233 00:08:22.772 --> 00:08:24.772 There was a story. 234 00:08:23.932 --> 00:08:25.932 I looked at Blue Label yesterday. 235 00:08:25.613 --> 00:08:27.933 I couldn't understand the numbers because, 236 00:08:28.513 --> 00:08:30.513 you know, when they come out with a trading statement, 237 00:08:30.334 --> 00:08:33.135 you put out so many conflicting numbers that you don't 238 00:08:33.235 --> 00:08:35.235 know what's happening. 239 00:08:34.475 --> 00:08:37.216 But apparently what happens is that they now own 240 00:08:38.156 --> 00:08:40.156 more than 50 percent of 241 00:08:40.037 --> 00:08:42.037 Celsius, so they can. 242 00:08:41.713 --> 00:08:43.895 incorporate their results or something like that, 243 00:08:43.915 --> 00:08:45.977 or there were adjustments in the previous quarter. 244 00:08:46.357 --> 00:08:49.159 If you look at the operating result, it's actually down. 245 00:08:49.640 --> 00:08:51.701 But when they published it, it was up. 246 00:08:52.082 --> 00:08:54.082 The share went up 15%. 247 00:08:53.963 --> 00:08:55.963 15%? 248 00:08:54.864 --> 00:08:56.864 Yeah, yeah. 249 00:08:56.925 --> 00:08:59.408 And I might be getting the whole story wrong because 250 00:09:00.248 --> 00:09:03.070 I try to look through the numbers that I don't know what they're trying to 251 00:09:03.111 --> 00:09:05.111 say. 252 00:09:03.791 --> 00:09:05.791 I don't know what the right numbers are. 253 00:09:05.312 --> 00:09:07.314 Are they making money or not making money? 254 00:09:07.774 --> 00:09:10.296 Whatever it is, but the share goes up 15%. 255 00:09:10.356 --> 00:09:12.356 And I'm saying... 256 00:09:11.165 --> 00:09:14.026 I would never have reacted that way at Coch Ingram 257 00:09:14.106 --> 00:09:16.106 today. 258 00:09:15.027 --> 00:09:17.027 Numbers are out, modest, 259 00:09:16.687 --> 00:09:18.788 no moderate increases there, 260 00:09:19.068 --> 00:09:21.068 a reasonable result, 261 00:09:21.610 --> 00:09:23.610 share up 9%. 262 00:09:23.430 --> 00:09:25.951 So there's enormous churning, you know, 263 00:09:26.352 --> 00:09:28.453 whatever's coming out doesn't really 264 00:09:29.153 --> 00:09:31.574 warrant the kind of gains that we're seeing. 265 00:09:31.654 --> 00:09:33.775 But you have to understand 266 00:09:33.795 --> 00:09:36.376 there's a huge float of money 267 00:09:37.056 --> 00:09:39.056 that needs to go into the market. 268 00:09:39.057 --> 00:09:41.880 And I think it's being pushed up just by belief 269 00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:43.960 that sentiment is going to increase. 270 00:09:43.982 --> 00:09:46.825 We're getting this two-part system going to be released 271 00:09:46.885 --> 00:09:48.885 next week, 272 00:09:48.307 --> 00:09:51.290 where billions of rands are going to be helicoptered 273 00:09:51.350 --> 00:09:54.313 into the economy as people 274 00:09:54.413 --> 00:09:56.413 spend. 275 00:09:56.298 --> 00:09:58.298 recklessly or wherever they need to. 276 00:09:59.180 --> 00:10:01.180 And so I think there's quite a bit of, 277 00:10:02.522 --> 00:10:05.183 you know, churning around those themes and that. 278 00:10:05.223 --> 00:10:07.764 But it's not evident in the actual numbers that we see. 279 00:10:07.984 --> 00:10:09.984 Certainly not in the mining. 280 00:10:09.065 --> 00:10:11.746 Is there a chance, Viv, do you think that foreigners, I mean, 281 00:10:11.766 --> 00:10:13.987 it's a tiny market, South Africa, let's face it. 282 00:10:14.047 --> 00:10:16.248 It's not big in any of the major 283 00:10:16.589 --> 00:10:19.230 indices that attract emerging markets. 284 00:10:19.550 --> 00:10:21.952 But on the other hand, it just takes a small bit of money. 285 00:10:22.052 --> 00:10:24.854 You have your morning meeting at the beginning of August and you say, right, 286 00:10:24.494 --> 00:10:26.494 OK, 287 00:10:25.334 --> 00:10:27.796 South Africa's got a government of national unity and it 288 00:10:28.136 --> 00:10:30.136 promises stability. 289 00:10:29.917 --> 00:10:31.917 Inflation's coming down. 290 00:10:31.399 --> 00:10:33.480 The round is nice and steady and 291 00:10:34.481 --> 00:10:36.481 things seem a bit better. 292 00:10:35.782 --> 00:10:37.782 So let's buy a basket of 293 00:10:37.903 --> 00:10:40.845 SA focused shares and just a few billion here 294 00:10:40.845 --> 00:10:43.787 and there in dollars or pounds pushes the 295 00:10:43.807 --> 00:10:45.807 market. 296 00:10:44.268 --> 00:10:46.289 And as David said, was it justified? 297 00:10:46.890 --> 00:10:48.890 But. 298 00:10:47.530 --> 00:10:49.951 5% up on ABSA after poor numbers and then 299 00:10:50.011 --> 00:10:52.011 2.5% the next day? 300 00:10:52.031 --> 00:10:54.031 I don't know. 301 00:10:52.932 --> 00:10:54.992 It just seems you're buying because it's cheap. 302 00:10:55.112 --> 00:10:57.112 I mean, 303 00:10:55.612 --> 00:10:58.473 I'd rather buy something because it's not that 304 00:10:58.553 --> 00:11:00.553 cheap, actually. 305 00:10:59.753 --> 00:11:02.314 Viv, is it foreigners or local people? 306 00:11:02.634 --> 00:11:05.615 Look, I think the liquidity in South 307 00:11:05.635 --> 00:11:08.596 Africa has gone down so significantly that it's quite easy to 308 00:11:08.636 --> 00:11:10.636 see jump moves happening, 309 00:11:11.297 --> 00:11:13.877 significant moves happening in relatively large volumes. 310 00:11:13.897 --> 00:11:16.398 I mean, I remember a few months ago, 311 00:11:17.006 --> 00:11:19.928 there was a trip that some of our 312 00:11:19.928 --> 00:11:22.249 clients had been following that they decided to get out of APSA, 313 00:11:22.669 --> 00:11:24.669 actually speak of APSA, 314 00:11:24.010 --> 00:11:26.952 and they actually almost pushed the stock into auction because 315 00:11:26.952 --> 00:11:28.952 of shares, 316 00:11:28.753 --> 00:11:30.753 you know what I mean? 317 00:11:31.354 --> 00:11:33.736 And it was, of course, 318 00:11:33.736 --> 00:11:35.736 it was an automated system, 319 00:11:34.676 --> 00:11:37.038 you had a stop loss and then you just automatically sell out. 320 00:11:37.978 --> 00:11:40.480 And I do think that in terms of APSA, I mean, 321 00:11:40.900 --> 00:11:43.822 the pricing on that share is so pathetically low at 322 00:11:43.822 --> 00:11:45.822 the moment. 323 00:11:44.542 --> 00:11:47.264 as david said the expectations are so low it's it's you 324 00:11:47.264 --> 00:11:49.867 know even disappointing numbers look good in it in 325 00:11:49.887 --> 00:11:52.809 comparison to what the price looks like at the moment uh but i do 326 00:11:52.969 --> 00:11:55.832 think there is a possibility i mean i don't know if you've seen uh there's some 327 00:11:55.992 --> 00:11:58.854 like really famous i won't say the names really famous people have been very 328 00:11:58.894 --> 00:12:01.656 negative about africa and they started talking recently about africa 329 00:12:01.737 --> 00:12:03.737 being a good buyer again 330 00:12:04.099 --> 00:12:06.901 david said that as well uh you know people that have been 331 00:12:07.021 --> 00:12:09.021 negative on south africa for like you know a decade here 332 00:12:08.842 --> 00:12:11.725 um and you know it's not 333 00:12:11.725 --> 00:12:14.486 just the fact that the genie we have physical things that are better now. 334 00:12:15.127 --> 00:12:17.127 Load shedding has stopped. 335 00:12:16.067 --> 00:12:18.968 I don't know why, 336 00:12:19.088 --> 00:12:21.088 but it has. 337 00:12:21.648 --> 00:12:23.648 But it has. 338 00:12:23.169 --> 00:12:25.169 It's amazing. 339 00:12:24.109 --> 00:12:26.930 And we are seeing signs that the economy is 340 00:12:26.950 --> 00:12:28.950 recovering. 341 00:12:28.370 --> 00:12:30.370 And like we talked about, inflation is coming down. 342 00:12:30.131 --> 00:12:32.131 All these things are just reinforcing themselves. 343 00:12:31.851 --> 00:12:33.851 Bad things reinforce bad things. 344 00:12:33.472 --> 00:12:35.472 Good things reinforce good things. 345 00:12:35.452 --> 00:12:37.452 Cut the interest rate by a bit. 346 00:12:36.492 --> 00:12:38.492 Have load shedding be gone. 347 00:12:38.193 --> 00:12:40.193 The consumer will return. 348 00:12:39.313 --> 00:12:41.313 South Africans love to come, especially at Christmas. 349 00:12:42.438 --> 00:12:45.260 you know the infrastructure the railway is done properly and we have 350 00:12:45.300 --> 00:12:48.283 these companies export a bit more and suddenly their results look a bit better 351 00:12:48.623 --> 00:12:51.266 you know people earn more money the banks get you know loans 352 00:12:51.326 --> 00:12:54.268 repaid they look a bit better it is possible 353 00:12:54.268 --> 00:12:56.930 that things could be turning around for south africa fingers crossed because you 354 00:12:56.430 --> 00:12:58.430 look here 355 00:12:57.411 --> 00:13:00.353 but you know there is a objectively signs that things are more positive now 356 00:13:00.353 --> 00:13:02.996 than they were a few months ago the only thing is it's a sort of a 357 00:13:03.296 --> 00:13:06.238 fly in the ointment in that one is the commodity prices at the beginning of 358 00:13:06.298 --> 00:13:09.261 august commodity prices went down to a five-month 359 00:13:09.361 --> 00:13:11.361 low across the board I mean, obviously, 360 00:13:11.022 --> 00:13:13.884 it's heavily weighted towards crude oil and other energies, 361 00:13:14.205 --> 00:13:16.205 but that's not good for the RAND. 362 00:13:16.166 --> 00:13:19.028 And if you look at the average over this month, 363 00:13:19.428 --> 00:13:21.428 it hasn't been good at all. 364 00:13:21.710 --> 00:13:24.632 And South Africa is still a commodity currency 365 00:13:24.832 --> 00:13:26.832 and a commodity country. 366 00:13:26.453 --> 00:13:28.875 And on that note about load shedding, Viv, 367 00:13:29.175 --> 00:13:31.437 David Shapiro has got a different story on load shedding, 368 00:13:32.037 --> 00:13:34.037 haven't you, David? 369 00:13:33.218 --> 00:13:35.218 Yeah. 370 00:13:34.619 --> 00:13:37.561 There's not a week that goes by that we're not knocked out. 371 00:13:37.561 --> 00:13:39.561 Vote. 372 00:13:38.382 --> 00:13:40.382 Not because of load shedding, 373 00:13:39.562 --> 00:13:42.203 but because the grid or the power 374 00:13:42.263 --> 00:13:44.263 stations, 375 00:13:44.464 --> 00:13:47.365 the sub-stations are falling over because they haven't 376 00:13:47.385 --> 00:13:49.385 been maintained. 377 00:13:48.545 --> 00:13:50.565 And the problem is it comes without warning, 378 00:13:51.286 --> 00:13:54.026 and it can last anywhere up to five to ten 379 00:13:54.146 --> 00:13:56.146 hours. 380 00:13:55.227 --> 00:13:57.787 We've got the Sydney power station here and 381 00:13:57.848 --> 00:14:00.668 Sibenza that are constantly being knocked out 382 00:14:00.788 --> 00:14:02.788 for whatever reason. 383 00:14:02.009 --> 00:14:04.009 So, you know, besides that, 384 00:14:03.729 --> 00:14:05.729 we still have water problems. 385 00:14:05.550 --> 00:14:07.550 That's why I say. 386 00:14:06.910 --> 00:14:09.511 I'll only be confident on South Africa when I stop saying my 387 00:14:09.691 --> 00:14:11.691 prayers. 388 00:14:10.351 --> 00:14:12.692 And my prayers are, please, God, may I have water today. 389 00:14:12.752 --> 00:14:14.752 Please, God, may I have electricity today. 390 00:14:15.052 --> 00:14:17.233 You know, that's my daily prayer. 391 00:14:17.753 --> 00:14:19.753 And so 392 00:14:19.133 --> 00:14:21.874 I still think there are issues that the infrastructure 393 00:14:21.914 --> 00:14:23.914 here, you know, 394 00:14:23.495 --> 00:14:26.195 infrastructure has an enormous amount to go still. 395 00:14:26.435 --> 00:14:28.816 The important point is the resource market. 396 00:14:28.996 --> 00:14:30.996 And going through the numbers, you know, 397 00:14:30.957 --> 00:14:33.837 going through the recent results, you've seen what it's, 398 00:14:33.997 --> 00:14:35.997 you know, what lower. 399 00:14:36.058 --> 00:14:38.120 commodity prices have done, and of course, 400 00:14:38.140 --> 00:14:40.140 the increase in costs. 401 00:14:39.922 --> 00:14:42.104 So that is our soft underbelly, 402 00:14:42.444 --> 00:14:45.327 because that's a massive 403 00:14:45.647 --> 00:14:47.749 area of collection for taxes. 404 00:14:48.229 --> 00:14:50.672 So we've seen CECL, you know, which was mainly, 405 00:14:50.772 --> 00:14:52.772 funny enough, chemical prices. 406 00:14:52.413 --> 00:14:54.413 But still, on the... 407 00:14:54.875 --> 00:14:56.875 PGMs, 408 00:14:55.595 --> 00:14:58.377 all the platinum companies had disastrous 409 00:14:58.437 --> 00:15:00.437 results. 410 00:14:59.858 --> 00:15:01.858 Iron ore, same thing. 411 00:15:01.939 --> 00:15:03.939 The iron ore price is below 100. 412 00:15:04.941 --> 00:15:07.022 You mentioned all the others, from nickel, 413 00:15:07.182 --> 00:15:09.182 big write-offs. 414 00:15:08.663 --> 00:15:10.924 Coal, we saw Tongala's prices as well, 415 00:15:10.984 --> 00:15:13.025 Tongala down quite significantly. 416 00:15:13.105 --> 00:15:15.547 So they're big 417 00:15:15.627 --> 00:15:17.627 employers. 418 00:15:16.827 --> 00:15:18.827 The mines are big employers. 419 00:15:18.028 --> 00:15:20.028 But it's not only the mines, 420 00:15:19.269 --> 00:15:22.230 it's the ancillary industries related to the mines 421 00:15:22.230 --> 00:15:24.230 or associated with the mines. 422 00:15:23.771 --> 00:15:25.771 that are also very important. 423 00:15:25.232 --> 00:15:28.153 So it remains an area of concern. 424 00:15:28.613 --> 00:15:31.174 As you mentioned, you've got the, 425 00:15:31.174 --> 00:15:33.315 you know, if you look at the commodity market, 426 00:15:33.315 --> 00:15:35.736 you always go to that CBOE index. 427 00:15:36.376 --> 00:15:39.297 And you can tell where it was a year or two years ago and 428 00:15:39.337 --> 00:15:41.337 where it is now. 429 00:15:40.778 --> 00:15:42.778 And of course, that hurts us. 430 00:15:42.258 --> 00:15:44.258 It really does. 431 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:45.279 I'm looking at the CRB. 432 00:15:44.439 --> 00:15:47.381 And you were talking about Hulim in the other day, David, 433 00:15:47.501 --> 00:15:50.402 and you said the aluminium prices were down, yeah, beginning of August. 434 00:15:50.402 --> 00:15:52.402 So they went to a three-month low. 435 00:15:51.642 --> 00:15:53.642 And three months doesn't sound like a lot, but. 436 00:15:53.851 --> 00:15:55.851 It's indicative of a trend. 437 00:15:55.912 --> 00:15:58.833 I think what's happened is that people have built up stocks 438 00:15:58.853 --> 00:16:01.654 and now they're not buying in the open market because they don't 439 00:16:01.714 --> 00:16:03.714 need it because they've got these stockpiles. 440 00:16:03.155 --> 00:16:05.155 That's one of the reasons. 441 00:16:04.336 --> 00:16:06.336 There are several others, of course. 442 00:16:06.297 --> 00:16:08.898 Anyway, let's have a look at some market indicators now, 443 00:16:08.938 --> 00:16:10.938 starting with currencies. 444 00:16:10.318 --> 00:16:12.359 The rand has reclaimed 18, 445 00:16:12.379 --> 00:16:14.379 or rather the dollar has reclaimed 18. 446 00:16:15.020 --> 00:16:17.020 Dollar rand is 18.03. 447 00:16:16.521 --> 00:16:18.602 British pound against the rand is 23.60. 448 00:16:18.962 --> 00:16:20.962 Euro rand is 20.03. 449 00:16:21.143 --> 00:16:24.065 Euro dollar 1105, 450 00:16:24.065 --> 00:16:26.826 and the British pound has vaulted its way through 451 00:16:26.826 --> 00:16:28.826 130. 452 00:16:27.426 --> 00:16:29.426 In fact, it's very close to 131, 453 00:16:29.828 --> 00:16:31.828 which is quite a big move. 454 00:16:31.369 --> 00:16:34.090 Gold price has been 2,500 since we last spoke, 455 00:16:34.090 --> 00:16:36.090 gentlemen. 456 00:16:34.550 --> 00:16:36.550 It's now 2,477, 457 00:16:36.371 --> 00:16:38.371 which is quite a big move on the day, 458 00:16:37.752 --> 00:16:39.773 down $32 an ounce. 459 00:16:39.793 --> 00:16:42.315 The platinum price is down 17 to 460 00:16:42.315 --> 00:16:44.976 951, and palladium at 920. 461 00:16:44.976 --> 00:16:46.976 Even with a weaker dollar, 462 00:16:45.937 --> 00:16:48.918 those white metals just don't want to go anywhere, do they? 463 00:16:49.338 --> 00:16:51.338 I really... 464 00:16:50.439 --> 00:16:52.439 really are under pressure, 465 00:16:52.660 --> 00:16:54.781 struggling for any sort of life. 466 00:16:55.002 --> 00:16:57.143 Crude oil, I'll start with West Texas today, 467 00:16:57.243 --> 00:16:59.784 7302, which has turned around. 468 00:17:00.164 --> 00:17:02.506 It was down earlier on today and down yesterday, 469 00:17:02.646 --> 00:17:04.646 up 1.6% today. 470 00:17:04.867 --> 00:17:06.867 Brent crude up 1.5% to 471 00:17:06.388 --> 00:17:08.649 $77.21. 472 00:17:08.649 --> 00:17:10.649 Natural gas has fallen 6%. 473 00:17:11.111 --> 00:17:13.111 And what else have we got going on there? 474 00:17:13.392 --> 00:17:15.392 Weak down 6% as well. 475 00:17:15.293 --> 00:17:17.634 Russia is undercutting everybody in the market now. 476 00:17:17.674 --> 00:17:19.674 It's the Russian harvest. 477 00:17:18.735 --> 00:17:20.735 It's the... 478 00:17:19.535 --> 00:17:21.535 US harvest, 479 00:17:20.696 --> 00:17:22.898 corn prices are down at a 480 00:17:23.378 --> 00:17:25.378 multi-month low as well. 481 00:17:24.479 --> 00:17:26.721 So commodities, agricultural, 482 00:17:26.841 --> 00:17:28.841 actually across the board, 483 00:17:28.142 --> 00:17:30.142 more or less under pressure. 484 00:17:30.223 --> 00:17:32.365 S&P 500 futures coming off. 485 00:17:32.745 --> 00:17:34.745 It's very slightly from their highs anyway. 486 00:17:34.646 --> 00:17:36.646 We're 56.35. 487 00:17:36.548 --> 00:17:38.548 We were 56.65 earlier on. 488 00:17:38.970 --> 00:17:40.970 That's down very fractionally. 489 00:17:40.371 --> 00:17:42.371 US 10-year bond is 490 00:17:43.853 --> 00:17:46.135 3.84% out of Jackson Hole. 491 00:17:46.435 --> 00:17:48.435 And what else have we got? 492 00:17:47.075 --> 00:17:49.075 The South African 10-year, that's the one I'm looking for, 493 00:17:49.396 --> 00:17:52.558 9.38%. 494 00:17:52.838 --> 00:17:55.639 Bitcoin has had a bit of a surge in the last 48 495 00:17:55.639 --> 00:17:58.160 hours, just below 61,000 at the moment, 496 00:17:58.180 --> 00:18:00.181 about 1.5% higher. 497 00:18:00.821 --> 00:18:02.821 Now, on the 498 00:18:01.921 --> 00:18:04.763 JSC, I'm going to have a look at some of the movers today. 499 00:18:05.203 --> 00:18:07.203 I noticed one thing as well, 500 00:18:06.383 --> 00:18:08.383 that we've had a few good days over 20 billion, 501 00:18:08.624 --> 00:18:10.725 but the last couple or three days, 502 00:18:11.045 --> 00:18:13.045 it's been well below 20 billion. 503 00:18:12.926 --> 00:18:15.247 I'm sure that's a function of the holiday season. 504 00:18:15.587 --> 00:18:18.570 in the northern hemisphere and international trade is 505 00:18:18.650 --> 00:18:21.452 not really doing much but uh that's up for 506 00:18:21.492 --> 00:18:24.315 discussion sassel 6.6 507 00:18:24.315 --> 00:18:26.977 higher is that correct yeah karu 508 00:18:27.077 --> 00:18:29.880 ups in a quarter what is that one david sh 509 00:18:29.960 --> 00:18:32.942 ccap is it shakespeare or uh shaftsbury 510 00:18:33.123 --> 00:18:35.865 sharps free capital that's it property company at 511 00:18:35.885 --> 00:18:38.808 4.1 percent ital tile up 3.6 and hammers and 512 00:18:38.808 --> 00:18:41.690 another property company up 3 downside in 513 00:18:41.710 --> 00:18:43.710 parlor platinum 514 00:18:42.927 --> 00:18:45.890 to wit so here we go every single one on the downside is 515 00:18:45.930 --> 00:18:47.930 commodities impala 516 00:18:47.971 --> 00:18:50.534 5.8 down drd gold down 517 00:18:50.614 --> 00:18:53.276 5.2 harmony down 4.4 518 00:18:53.316 --> 00:18:56.138 percent anglo-american platinum down three and three quarters 519 00:18:56.519 --> 00:18:59.461 gold fields down three just over three and a 520 00:18:59.481 --> 00:19:02.223 half percent viv one step 521 00:19:02.504 --> 00:19:05.446 forward two steps back on the commodities and 522 00:19:05.546 --> 00:19:08.028 also on the jsc listed 523 00:19:08.208 --> 00:19:10.951 commodity producers and as i said earlier on 524 00:19:11.171 --> 00:19:13.292 It's a little bit disturbing, especially for the Rand. 525 00:19:13.792 --> 00:19:15.894 Yeah, look, I mean, the thing with commodities, unfortunately, 526 00:19:16.054 --> 00:19:18.695 is that it's China, and China is going through a very bad time. 527 00:19:18.695 --> 00:19:21.136 I mean, I don't know if you saw, 528 00:19:22.117 --> 00:19:24.899 I've been talking about the fact that I haven't been investing in China for the 529 00:19:24.378 --> 00:19:26.378 last couple of 530 00:19:24.899 --> 00:19:26.899 years because of Xi Jinping. 531 00:19:26.339 --> 00:19:29.281 I don't know if you saw the images of how he had 532 00:19:29.521 --> 00:19:31.521 all the Chinese athletes come up, 533 00:19:31.442 --> 00:19:34.204 applauding for like 20 minutes as he walked past them. 534 00:19:34.724 --> 00:19:36.724 Not even applauding them, them applauding him. 535 00:19:37.265 --> 00:19:39.265 I mean, all the guys to the Olympics. 536 00:19:41.031 --> 00:19:43.031 Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 537 00:19:44.530 --> 00:19:46.530 Yeah, so it doesn't matter, 538 00:19:46.431 --> 00:19:48.431 but you don't have to have something like that. 539 00:19:48.252 --> 00:19:51.093 It would turn on an economy like China that's going through a bad patch at the 540 00:19:51.093 --> 00:19:53.093 moment. 541 00:19:51.393 --> 00:19:53.393 You know what I mean? 542 00:19:52.694 --> 00:19:54.694 Leadership does matter in that case. 543 00:19:53.914 --> 00:19:55.914 And until China turns around, 544 00:19:56.375 --> 00:19:58.375 unfortunately, 545 00:19:57.456 --> 00:19:59.817 our commodity prices are going to be a bit under pressure. 546 00:20:00.377 --> 00:20:02.377 We can be as efficient as we want to, 547 00:20:02.138 --> 00:20:04.759 but all we're going to be is trying to fight our competitors in 548 00:20:04.779 --> 00:20:07.500 Brazil and in Australia to provide the cheapest stuff to 549 00:20:07.800 --> 00:20:09.800 the Chinese. 550 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:10.960 We need for them to recover. 551 00:20:10.061 --> 00:20:12.622 And unfortunately, right now, I don't see much hope for it in the near term. 552 00:20:13.338 --> 00:20:15.338 Okay, David, 553 00:20:14.758 --> 00:20:16.758 we'll talk a little bit about politics. 554 00:20:16.879 --> 00:20:19.500 As I said, when just before we came on air to both of you, 555 00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:22.741 I've been stupid to be completely 556 00:20:23.301 --> 00:20:25.301 enthralled by the 557 00:20:24.761 --> 00:20:27.222 Democratic National Convention in Chicago. 558 00:20:27.702 --> 00:20:30.103 And I've had every intention of just watching the big speeches, 559 00:20:30.123 --> 00:20:32.623 but I've ended up watching a very good chap, 560 00:20:33.003 --> 00:20:35.003 Governor Wes Moore, for example, 561 00:20:35.284 --> 00:20:37.284 young black governor, 562 00:20:36.824 --> 00:20:39.645 ex military man and everything made a really, really good speech. 563 00:20:40.105 --> 00:20:42.426 And what I've really liked is that there's been some quiet. 564 00:20:42.726 --> 00:20:44.726 hardcore 565 00:20:43.867 --> 00:20:46.569 Republicans that have come and spoken on behalf of 566 00:20:46.869 --> 00:20:48.869 the Democrats. 567 00:20:47.509 --> 00:20:50.311 And they've said, don't get me wrong, we're still Republicans. 568 00:20:50.371 --> 00:20:52.371 We're not the turning party. 569 00:20:51.952 --> 00:20:54.514 We're just, we cannot vote for 570 00:20:55.034 --> 00:20:57.034 Trump and Vance. 571 00:20:56.335 --> 00:20:58.335 We just can't do it. 572 00:20:57.556 --> 00:20:59.556 And that must really, 573 00:20:59.017 --> 00:21:01.519 must really rankle with Trump, David, wouldn't you? 574 00:21:01.659 --> 00:21:04.221 He would be seething about that. 575 00:21:05.341 --> 00:21:07.341 Yeah, I think that there's, 576 00:21:07.483 --> 00:21:10.365 there's no doubt what the response has 577 00:21:10.445 --> 00:21:12.445 been to Kamala. 578 00:21:12.190 --> 00:21:14.190 Kamala, you know, 579 00:21:13.951 --> 00:21:16.091 and just it's kind of renewed, 580 00:21:16.471 --> 00:21:18.471 as we've been saying, 581 00:21:17.632 --> 00:21:19.652 the interest in the Democratic Party. 582 00:21:20.172 --> 00:21:22.172 What's happened is 583 00:21:22.013 --> 00:21:24.994 I think she is attracting a lot of young 584 00:21:25.074 --> 00:21:27.074 voters, 585 00:21:26.194 --> 00:21:28.855 certainly a lot of women of color or 586 00:21:28.895 --> 00:21:30.895 people of color. 587 00:21:29.615 --> 00:21:31.615 Yes. 588 00:21:31.315 --> 00:21:33.315 And of course, not only that, 589 00:21:32.756 --> 00:21:34.956 I think women as well. 590 00:21:35.597 --> 00:21:37.597 So I'm not sure, you know, 591 00:21:38.597 --> 00:21:40.597 kind of the old Democrat. 592 00:21:41.374 --> 00:21:43.374 I'm trying to think who, 593 00:21:44.216 --> 00:21:46.997 maybe the Biden supporters or older 594 00:21:47.077 --> 00:21:49.077 white men. 595 00:21:48.058 --> 00:21:50.740 I'm not sure that they swayed by her 596 00:21:51.260 --> 00:21:54.141 to the same extent as younger people. 597 00:21:54.822 --> 00:21:56.822 And 598 00:21:57.003 --> 00:21:59.104 I think that Trump is, you know, 599 00:21:59.645 --> 00:22:02.626 I don't know enough about politics to know where he is 600 00:22:02.666 --> 00:22:04.888 at the moment, but he must be swerving. 601 00:22:05.268 --> 00:22:07.929 And for once, he's getting his own back. 602 00:22:08.009 --> 00:22:10.009 I mean, both. 603 00:22:09.694 --> 00:22:12.335 Obama and his wife Michelle and all other 604 00:22:12.375 --> 00:22:14.696 people there have given it to him and have 605 00:22:15.036 --> 00:22:17.737 identified what kind of a character he is. 606 00:22:19.137 --> 00:22:21.137 To your point about maybe 607 00:22:21.798 --> 00:22:23.798 Harris is not bringing in, 608 00:22:23.499 --> 00:22:26.380 is not appealing so much to the old sort of Biden style 609 00:22:26.860 --> 00:22:28.860 typical voter, 610 00:22:28.120 --> 00:22:31.081 that's why she brought in Tim Walz of course and he made 611 00:22:31.081 --> 00:22:33.182 a great speech last night, he was very folksy. 612 00:22:33.662 --> 00:22:35.904 He didn't say much about policy, but he didn't need to. 613 00:22:36.444 --> 00:22:38.444 It wasn't a policy speech. 614 00:22:37.705 --> 00:22:39.705 It was, 615 00:22:37.905 --> 00:22:40.767 thank you very much for making me your VP 616 00:22:41.488 --> 00:22:43.488 nominee. 617 00:22:42.329 --> 00:22:44.329 And this is what I've done. 618 00:22:44.330 --> 00:22:46.330 I've been the school teacher. 619 00:22:45.651 --> 00:22:47.651 I've been the football coach. 620 00:22:47.192 --> 00:22:50.034 I've been in, I was in the National Guard for 24 years. 621 00:22:50.395 --> 00:22:52.395 That's what people wanted to hear. 622 00:22:51.996 --> 00:22:53.996 Tonight, of course, it will be different. 623 00:22:53.937 --> 00:22:56.919 Viv, I'll bring you in on this because tonight it's Kamala 624 00:22:56.959 --> 00:22:59.802 Harris and she's got to say something about the economy. 625 00:22:59.862 --> 00:23:01.862 She can't. 626 00:23:00.522 --> 00:23:03.404 just have the big smile and laugh and everything like that 627 00:23:03.424 --> 00:23:05.424 and say, you know, 628 00:23:04.444 --> 00:23:07.186 we've got such energy in the auditorium and we're all 629 00:23:07.306 --> 00:23:09.567 joyous and happy and we're all full of hope. 630 00:23:09.767 --> 00:23:11.767 She's got to say something, I would have thought, wouldn't she? 631 00:23:12.429 --> 00:23:14.429 Yeah, look, unfortunately, 632 00:23:14.790 --> 00:23:17.572 I don't know if she does, because, I mean, here's the thing. 633 00:23:17.972 --> 00:23:20.594 Kamala is like almost the default 634 00:23:20.634 --> 00:23:22.634 candidate that got put into place. 635 00:23:22.455 --> 00:23:25.156 She would not have been what anyone would have chosen had the 636 00:23:25.236 --> 00:23:27.236 crime never been stopped, to be fair. 637 00:23:28.562 --> 00:23:30.562 The thing that worries me is, 638 00:23:29.563 --> 00:23:31.604 have you seen the policies that you bring out? 639 00:23:32.264 --> 00:23:34.264 Capital gains up to 30-something percent. 640 00:23:35.206 --> 00:23:37.947 The scary one is the unrealistic capital 641 00:23:37.987 --> 00:23:39.987 gains tax. 642 00:23:40.229 --> 00:23:42.330 What that would be is that imagine you start a company, 643 00:23:42.450 --> 00:23:44.450 and before you sell the company, 644 00:23:44.231 --> 00:23:47.132 you'd be forced to pay a portion of the value 645 00:23:47.132 --> 00:23:49.132 of the company increase. 646 00:23:49.574 --> 00:23:51.574 Imagine what happened to Jeff Bezos, right? 647 00:23:51.515 --> 00:23:53.515 Starts Amazon, 648 00:23:52.335 --> 00:23:54.597 gets over $100 million in terms of valuation, 649 00:23:55.017 --> 00:23:57.017 and he'd be forced to sell a piece of that Amazon. 650 00:23:57.678 --> 00:24:00.460 shares every year to pay off this tax that we should be 651 00:24:00.480 --> 00:24:02.480 creating. 652 00:24:01.600 --> 00:24:04.261 These are the extremes that come about 653 00:24:04.321 --> 00:24:07.283 because obviously we're not talking about going through the process where 654 00:24:07.283 --> 00:24:09.464 you have the moderate thoughts in place. 655 00:24:09.824 --> 00:24:12.305 Hopefully it comes up with a more centrist kind of economic policy. 656 00:24:12.845 --> 00:24:15.526 And the second thing to note about the US is that it comes down to less than 657 00:24:15.606 --> 00:24:17.606 20% of the voters. 658 00:24:16.887 --> 00:24:19.048 The other 80% of the voters in the US don't matter at all. 659 00:24:19.508 --> 00:24:21.789 You live in California, you live in New York, you do not matter. 660 00:24:21.789 --> 00:24:23.789 You live in Texas, you do not matter. 661 00:24:23.590 --> 00:24:25.590 It only matters if you live in, I think, 662 00:24:25.132 --> 00:24:27.635 about seven or eight states in the U.S., okay, 663 00:24:28.136 --> 00:24:30.839 and whoever wins those particular states wins the 664 00:24:30.859 --> 00:24:32.859 election. 665 00:24:31.700 --> 00:24:33.943 Because, like, California is going to go Democratic no matter what, 666 00:24:34.564 --> 00:24:37.487 you know, like, parts of the South are going to go Republican no matter what. 667 00:24:38.528 --> 00:24:40.528 And so, yeah, it comes down to that. 668 00:24:40.314 --> 00:24:43.275 The one thing that you could say about Tim Walz that was not great 669 00:24:43.355 --> 00:24:46.116 is that normally, and same thing with J.D. 670 00:24:46.216 --> 00:24:48.357 Vance as well, that they brought in 671 00:24:48.837 --> 00:24:51.358 Walz to basically, for whatever reason, 672 00:24:51.779 --> 00:24:53.779 but he doesn't even help us. 673 00:24:53.139 --> 00:24:55.460 Like, Walz doesn't help Trump in terms of the election. 674 00:24:56.060 --> 00:24:58.521 Had they brought in someone like, I think the guy whose name is Josh Shapiro. 675 00:24:59.962 --> 00:25:01.962 Yes. 676 00:25:00.602 --> 00:25:03.543 I mean, another Shapiro out there. 677 00:25:03.663 --> 00:25:06.124 David Kitt goes to talk about how great Shapiros are. 678 00:25:06.525 --> 00:25:08.946 But he would have been better. 679 00:25:09.166 --> 00:25:11.166 He would have been better. 680 00:25:10.490 --> 00:25:13.471 because he would have given them a state that they need 681 00:25:13.491 --> 00:25:15.491 to win to win the election. 682 00:25:15.291 --> 00:25:17.291 Unfortunately, 683 00:25:16.032 --> 00:25:18.752 the Democratic Party is a bit anti-Jewish at the moment, 684 00:25:19.472 --> 00:25:21.472 to be mild about it. 685 00:25:21.033 --> 00:25:23.814 And that probably would have been seen to be 686 00:25:24.674 --> 00:25:26.674 anti-her because it would affect 687 00:25:28.415 --> 00:25:30.415 some of her support. 688 00:25:29.895 --> 00:25:32.696 But yeah, it is a very complicated race. 689 00:25:33.096 --> 00:25:35.437 Right now, I think most polling has it as a dead heat. 690 00:25:36.357 --> 00:25:38.357 Basically like a 50-50 or like 691 00:25:37.757 --> 00:25:39.757 45-45 down heat. 692 00:25:40.546 --> 00:25:42.546 So, 693 00:25:40.667 --> 00:25:43.549 I don't know where the entire town is going to be in 694 00:25:43.549 --> 00:25:45.549 60 days. 695 00:25:44.290 --> 00:25:46.772 She's a couple of points ahead, but the margin of error, I think, 696 00:25:47.052 --> 00:25:49.254 across all polls is something like 3.5% to 697 00:25:49.314 --> 00:25:51.314 3.7%, something like that. 698 00:25:51.336 --> 00:25:53.939 The points ahead do not matter. 699 00:25:53.959 --> 00:25:55.981 Like I said, it all comes down to the states. 700 00:25:56.001 --> 00:25:58.001 She could be six points ahead. 701 00:25:57.942 --> 00:26:00.385 If it's all in California, it's all in New York, it makes no difference. 702 00:26:00.665 --> 00:26:03.487 It has to be in Pennsylvania. 703 00:26:03.888 --> 00:26:05.888 It has to be in those particular states. 704 00:26:07.763 --> 00:26:09.763 North Carolina, maybe. 705 00:26:09.684 --> 00:26:11.684 That makes a very good point. 706 00:26:11.826 --> 00:26:14.648 And I think that might be her drawback. 707 00:26:15.608 --> 00:26:17.608 Shapiro was a much better, 708 00:26:17.510 --> 00:26:19.510 more suited candidate. 709 00:26:19.351 --> 00:26:21.412 But there were concerns, obviously. 710 00:26:21.673 --> 00:26:23.673 And Trump's been playing on it. 711 00:26:24.014 --> 00:26:26.256 He says, you didn't choose Shapiro because he was Jewish. 712 00:26:26.976 --> 00:26:29.658 And you're scared of the reaction. 713 00:26:30.339 --> 00:26:32.339 You're anti-Semitic and so on. 714 00:26:31.720 --> 00:26:33.720 So he's been playing up on that. 715 00:26:33.841 --> 00:26:35.841 But there's this. 716 00:26:35.458 --> 00:26:37.458 There's a little bit of truth behind it, 717 00:26:37.919 --> 00:26:40.320 but I think it would have been a much better candidate, 718 00:26:40.380 --> 00:26:43.261 particularly on the economy and around 719 00:26:43.321 --> 00:26:45.321 issues like that, 720 00:26:45.362 --> 00:26:47.463 on which this election is going to be fought. 721 00:26:48.263 --> 00:26:50.263 But still, it's close. 722 00:26:51.485 --> 00:26:53.826 She's getting the support. 723 00:26:53.906 --> 00:26:55.906 People like her, 724 00:26:54.906 --> 00:26:57.607 and she certainly empowered the 725 00:26:57.627 --> 00:26:59.627 Democratic Party again. 726 00:26:59.788 --> 00:27:01.889 Shapiro spoke last night. 727 00:27:02.089 --> 00:27:04.089 I watched him. 728 00:27:02.609 --> 00:27:04.609 He's OK. 729 00:27:02.949 --> 00:27:04.949 He's a little bit manic. 730 00:27:04.378 --> 00:27:06.459 He sort of shouts at you, unlike you, David, 731 00:27:07.039 --> 00:27:09.700 with your calm, cool and collected approach to 732 00:27:10.800 --> 00:27:12.800 oratory. 733 00:27:12.981 --> 00:27:14.981 And also, I'll tell you who else was quite good, 734 00:27:14.961 --> 00:27:16.961 was the gay chap. 735 00:27:16.782 --> 00:27:18.782 Butter Weep. 736 00:27:17.982 --> 00:27:19.982 Butter Geek or something, whatever his name was. 737 00:27:20.283 --> 00:27:22.903 Yeah, he was also excellent. 738 00:27:22.903 --> 00:27:25.764 So it's been great fun, and I will be getting up again 739 00:27:26.885 --> 00:27:28.885 as I've got an easy day tomorrow, 740 00:27:28.005 --> 00:27:30.426 and I will be watching Harris 741 00:27:30.606 --> 00:27:32.606 accepting the nomination. 742 00:27:31.986 --> 00:27:33.986 should be good. 743 00:27:32.426 --> 00:27:35.107 David, please give us the closing JSE indices, if you would. 744 00:27:35.767 --> 00:27:38.248 We came down from around about 10.30. 745 00:27:38.308 --> 00:27:41.249 We were up quite significantly and then gave it all back right 746 00:27:41.249 --> 00:27:43.249 at the end with a big sell-off towards the end. 747 00:27:43.609 --> 00:27:46.350 And that was mainly in commodities, you know, in the mining shares. 748 00:27:46.390 --> 00:27:49.331 So we ended down about a half a percent 749 00:27:49.491 --> 00:27:51.892 at 83621 with 750 00:27:52.512 --> 00:27:55.133 the miners doing most of the damage, particularly, 751 00:27:55.233 --> 00:27:57.233 as you mentioned earlier, you know, 752 00:27:57.133 --> 00:27:59.814 the platinum and gold shares coming under quite a bit of pressure. 753 00:28:00.538 --> 00:28:03.440 even though the RAND has weakened a 754 00:28:03.460 --> 00:28:05.460 bit. 755 00:28:04.281 --> 00:28:06.582 So the resource index is down 2%, 756 00:28:06.942 --> 00:28:08.942 with the precious metals and mining down 757 00:28:09.624 --> 00:28:11.685 3.5%. Banks are also down 758 00:28:11.765 --> 00:28:13.765 1.5%. 759 00:28:12.666 --> 00:28:15.247 The only area of gain were 760 00:28:15.247 --> 00:28:17.247 industrials. 761 00:28:16.688 --> 00:28:19.410 Industrial index up just over 762 00:28:19.430 --> 00:28:21.430 0.5%. 763 00:28:20.751 --> 00:28:22.751 So still holding its own. 764 00:28:22.151 --> 00:28:24.553 I think if you go into the broader market 765 00:28:25.013 --> 00:28:27.738 outside of the index, Related stocks, 766 00:28:27.918 --> 00:28:30.119 there's still a lot more gainers than losers. 767 00:28:30.579 --> 00:28:33.140 There's lots of trading activity 768 00:28:35.060 --> 00:28:37.060 in the smaller caps. 769 00:28:36.041 --> 00:28:38.041 I think lots of punting going on. 770 00:28:38.161 --> 00:28:41.082 I don't know whether it's hedge funds or people just 771 00:28:41.202 --> 00:28:43.202 having a go at this market. 772 00:28:43.503 --> 00:28:45.503 And we discussed some of the moves and some of the 773 00:28:46.444 --> 00:28:48.444 very little liquidity. 774 00:28:47.704 --> 00:28:50.305 Just on that quickly, Lindsay, 775 00:28:50.545 --> 00:28:52.866 you mentioned the low levels of turnover. 776 00:28:53.246 --> 00:28:55.246 Today we... 777 00:28:54.562 --> 00:28:57.444 barely got to 15 billion, just over 15 billion. 778 00:28:57.464 --> 00:28:59.765 Wow, that's really bad. 779 00:29:00.045 --> 00:29:02.827 And the banks have been holding up, you know, Capitec, 780 00:29:02.907 --> 00:29:05.429 First Rand, Absa, MedBank, Standard Bank, 781 00:29:05.589 --> 00:29:07.589 all among the leaders. 782 00:29:07.270 --> 00:29:09.270 Very, very low volumes. 783 00:29:09.791 --> 00:29:11.872 Disturbing for the JSC limited share price. 784 00:29:12.293 --> 00:29:14.294 Okay, gentlemen, thank you very much for your time, as always. 785 00:29:14.654 --> 00:29:16.654 David Shapiro is from Sasser and Securities. 786 00:29:16.835 --> 00:29:19.657 Viv Govender from Randsmiths, both in Johannesburg. 787 00:29:19.657 --> 00:29:21.657 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 788 00:29:21.602 --> 00:29:24.363 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of 789 00:29:24.403 --> 00:29:27.324 Lindsay Williams and various contributors and 790 00:29:27.344 --> 00:29:29.344 do not reflect the policy, 791 00:29:28.664 --> 00:29:31.285 position or opinion of any other agency, 792 00:29:31.525 --> 00:29:33.525 organisation, 793 00:29:32.605 --> 00:29:35.486 employer or company associated with 794 00:29:35.526 --> 00:29:37.526 StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 795 00:29:37.726 --> 00:29:40.147 Assumptions made on the analyses are not 796 00:29:40.267 --> 00:29:43.208 reflective of the position of any other entity other 797 00:29:43.248 --> 00:29:45.248 than the speaker or the author. 798 00:29:44.968 --> 00:29:47.469 And since we are critically thinking human beings, 799 00:29:47.849 --> 00:29:50.170 these views are always subject to change, 800 00:29:50.450 --> 00:29:52.450 revision and revision. 801 00:29:51.210 --> 00:29:53.210 and rethinking at any time. 802 00:29:53.294 --> 00:29:55.718 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.